it's monday, february 1st. right now on "first look," after months of controversy and clashes, iowans finally head to their caucus sites to cast the first votes of the 2016 presidential campaign. "first look" starts right now. good morning, i'm gigi stone woods. today is the day. after months of shaking hand, giving speeches, not to mention more than 60,000 tv ads, iowa voters will make their voices heard in the state's caucuses. and the race appears closer than ever. the final des moines register/bloomberg poll shows donald trump ahead of ted cruz by only five points.

the democratic side, even tighter. hillary clinton ahead of bernie sanders by just 3%. a dead heat within the margin of error. although not everything is rosy for the front-runners, gallup's most weekly biweekly unfavorability average shows three out of every five americans, 60%, view trump unfavorably. that's the highest negative rating for a presidential candidate since at least 1992. while hillary clinton currently has the third highest, 52% of americans have a negative view of the former secretary of state. people don't like them, but they're supporting them. on the plus side clinton did get a huge endorsement over the weekend from "the new york times," which called the former secretary of state, quote, one of the most broadly and deeply qualified presidential candidates in modern history. the paper also endorsed john kasich, saying even though he's an underdog, he's, quote, the only plausible choice for republicans. clinton continued her push late last night making a rare appearance on stage with her husband bill and daughter

chelsea. both of whom normally stump separately while bernie sanders continues to garner support with younger voters, and he's raising a lot of money. the campaign announced it raised $20 million in january alone. it says it will have enough funds to stay in the race for the long haul. this as both campaigns tell nbc news they expect today to be close. nbc's kristen welker is in iowa with more. >> it's the home stretch. hillary clinton and bernie sanders blanketing iowa. a fight for the number one spot in a race likely to be a photo finish. >> monday night could be an historic night for this country. we can make history. >> let's start a storm of movement toward the future that we want to make together! >> with just hours before voters caucus, clinton and sanders, in a statistical dead heat. 45% to 42% in the final iowa polling.

getting people out to vote is today's top priority. teams of volunteers and organizers knocking on doors one last time. making sure every supporter knows two things, where their caucus location is, and how they'll get there. and the clinton campaign allowing nbc an exclusive look at their specially developed app, which is like a caucus night calculator, helping them keep close tabs on caucusgoers and how they're voting. >> allows us to streamline the process and help our precinct captains be able to move more quickly through some of these processes so they're spending less time calculating and more time persuading. >> the clinton campaign estimates 125,000 door knocks this weekend alone, 4200 trained precinct captains and team members in place. sanders' ground team equally impressive. 76,000 door knocks, over 15,000 volunteers. clinton, still playing defense on her private e-mails when she was secretary of state. >> i just have to point out that the timing and some of the leaks that have led up to it are

concerning. >> sanders, who's been reluctant to engage in the e-mail issue, weighed in on "meet the press." >> know, i think this is a serious issue. i am not going to attack hillary clinton, the american people will have to make that judgment. >> and with the clock ticking, voters are now ready to have their say. who are you supporting? >> bernie sanders. >> why hillary clinton? >> i -- i honestly think that she has the most experience, and she can do the job. >> that was nbc's kristen welker reporting. and make sure to tune in this thursday for the new hampshire democratic debate airing right here on msnbc. clinton, sanders, and martin o'malley all expected to attend. with polling tight, donald trump and ted cruz continue to escalate their attacks on one another as both candidates attended church in a last effort to court those voters. nbc's hallie jackson reports. >> in the final crunch before the caucuses, even church becomes a campaign stop. >> i pray that god's will be

done. >> reporter: but this sunday's signs of peace giving way to the battle on the campaign trail. >> donald trump exports expanding obamacare to make it full-on socialized medicine like bernie sanders. >> look, ted cruz is a total liar. i am so against obamacare. i'm going to repeal and replace obamacare. >> reporter: trump, looking strong, still subtly starting to tamp down expectations, arguing he doesn't have to win this state. >> i'd like to win iowa. i'm doing really well with the evangelicals, and in iowa. >> reporter: both candidates know support from christian conservatives could be the deciding factor. about 6 in 10 caucusgoers identified as evangelical the last couple of cycles. if the same number turns out new polling shows this race will be a dead heat. what's going to be important for you in that caucus room? >> i think what's most important to me when i go do a caucus, i want somebody who obviously shares the same values that i have. as a -- as a christian, as a bible believer. >> reporter: pastors at new hope church clear on what they want

from a nominee, and what they don't. >> i'm disappointed that people will tell us when they get to washington they're going to do this. i'm disappointed that the republicans and democrats can't work together to make better laws that -- that reach across the aisle, and that benefit all americans. >> reporter: that frustration, one of the biggest factors fuelling outsiders like trump and cruz here. >> very frustrated with both parties. although i have faith in marco. >> reporter: that's gary warm bier at a marco rubio rally. rubio, cruz and trump all ready for a race that could last long past iowa. >> the real poll that matters is tomorrow night. the poll matters, it's what we actually do right, and not necessarily what all the media tells us to do. 33 >> that's right. that was nbc's hallie jackson reporting. late yesterday we got one more memorable moment. the ted cruz campaign bus got stuck in the mud and had to be towed. you know that they're hoping

that is not a metaphor that's going to come true. bernie sanders meanwhile remaining confident he'll win if turnout is high. campaign insiders say that if more than 200,000 people show up like they did in 2008 sanders will win. but, all the confidence in the world, of course, can't stop the weather, and there's a storm coming to iowa. nbc meteorologist bill karins is here with more. is it going to stop the caucusgoers from going out? >> it does not look like it will. it's a close call, though. i mean we were about twelve hours away from dealing with a caucus blizzard. but as far as the forecast goes for tonight, 7:00 p.m. the doors will be shut, the temperatures will be in the 30s. some rain will be breaking out here in areas of nebraska and iowa. but it does not look like we're going to have any problems with the snow. even by 10:00 p.m. when it wraps up and everyone is heading home, temperatures still warm. there is snow breaking out in nebraska. there's a chance along the nebraska/iowa border for a little bit of snow. but with temperatures in the 30s i think the roads will be just fine. won't be until tomorrow that we'll start to see more of the additional problems. here's the snow tonight at 10:00 p.m., avoiding iowa which is

good. the storm is now currently in areas of california, heading through arizona, we've even had thunder snow in northern ariz a arizona. winter storm warnings from areas of california, right through southern utah, all of colorado, and now we got some blizzard warnings that are now changing into areas in iowa, too. again this is going to be late tonight into early portions of tomorrow morning. and the forecast snow totals, this is impressive snowstorm. areas from like omaha, ames, iowa, just south of minneapolis through rochester will have 6 to 12 inches of snow out of this and the heaviest of it being here in nebraska, and our friends in denver today dealing with 6 to 10 inches of snow, too. so this is an all-out storm. we were very close to the iowa caucus blizzard. instead it will be the groundhog day blizzard. don't miss a second of our iowa caucus coverage hosted by richal maddow, brian williams and chris matthews tonight at 6:00 p.m. eastern here on msnbc. let's get down to business with cnbc's landon dowdy.

good morning, landon. >> hi, gigi. good monday morning to you. the markets could set off february on a down note. stocks ending higher on friday but still closed out the worst january for the dow and s&p 500 since 2009. and the nasdaq since 2008. today personal income and consumer spending and earnings from google's parent company alphabet. meanwhile the cdc is reportedly expected to declare an end to chipotle's e. coli outbreak as soon as today. "the wall street journal" says investigators still haven't pin pointed the cause of the contamination that affected people in nine states and impacted chipotle sales and stock price. the chain is planning an ad and social media campaign to woo back customers. and elon musk gets set to test his high speed, hyperloop transit system this summer. a team of students at m.i.t. won a competition by designing a vehicle for the test track. the hyperloop could transport passengers at speeds of up to 760 miles per hour. gigi, back over to you. >> is that close to the speed of

light, landon? they don't call them the real life iron man for nothing now sports are coming up, super bowl 50 less than a week away. the competing teams are vying for the lombardi trophy. they've touched down in california. the nfc champion carolina panthers arrived in san jose they're looking to capture their first super bowl title in franchise history. the panthers rolled through the regular season with a 15-1 record before knocking off the seahawks and cardinals to advance to the big game. the afc challenger denver broncos flew a broncos flag from the team plane upon their arrival in san jose. it's the broncos' second super bowl appearance in three years as the team looks to capture their first championship since '98. meanwhile some of the nfl's best took part in the pro bowl in hawaii. the teams were coached by hall of famers jerry rice and michael irvin. eli manning hooked up with kansas city chiefs tight end travis tell ki for a tour for team rice. russell wilson threw for 164 yards, three touchdowns all in the first half.

wilson earned offensive most valuable player honors leading team irvin to the 49-29 victory. detroit lions star wide receiver calvin johnson is hanging it up after nine seasons retiring from the nfl. johnson reportedly told his family and friends before the 2015 season that it would be his last. drafted second overall in the 2007 draft out of georgia tech johnson went on to become the lions' all-time leader in receptions, and receiving yards. just ahead, two virginia tech students arrested in connection with a shocking murder. plus, this morning you may be asking yourself, what exactly is a caucus? well, we have got the very specific answer coming up next you don't want to miss it. ♪ melodic, calm music.

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this is so disturbing. two virginia tech students have been arrested in connection with the abduction and murder of a 13-year-old girl. nicole lovell. her body was found saturday along a north carolina highway.

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we are just hours away from today's iowa caucuses. something candidates spend millions of dollars and hours trying -- trying to win. but what exactly is a caucus? don't be embarrassed if you find it confusing. mbss in's jacob soberoff headed to iowa to find out that it can even be confusing for native iowans. listen. >> reporter: a caucus is, let's just say it, kind of a strange way to pick a president. iowa isn't the only state to use some form of the caucus system but it goes first. what is a caucus, exactly? >> what is a caucus? >> well it's when they try to get out there and get -- get all of the -- you know, to figure out who's going to be the best candidate. >> it helps decide -- i don't really know, to be honest. >> reporter: on iowa's caucus day, election day is more like election hour. at 7:00 p.m., whether it's at a school, legion hall, church, government building, or another location, you have to show up, in person, at one of 1,681

precincts to participate. explain to me how do you caucus? >> you go to the area in your precinct, and then from there you decide which candidate you're going to caucus for. >> you kind of go and stand by who you want to support. >> reporter: you kind of go and stand by who you want to support. >> the group. >> reporter: because political parties control the primary process what you do once you're inside the caucus depends on whether you're a republican or a democrat. the republican caucus process is pretty straightforward. you walk in, you write the name of your candidate on a piece of paper, you hand it in ballots are counted a winner is announced and delegates are awarded. if you're a democrat caucusing is sort of a game of musical chairs. there's a public pitch to everyone who shows up by a campaign representative for each candidate. then caucusgoers literally break into groups for their candidate, or to an area for undecided voters. the percentage each candidate gets is calculated, and a candidate's support is deemed viable if in the vast majority of caucus locations they get 15% support or more.

caucusgoers whose candidate doesn't make the cut can realign to another campaign, try to reach viability by recruiting additional supporters or go to the undecided category and be recruited from there. the process repeats until all remaining candidates are viable. then delegates are awarded. confused? you're not alone. and it's why some say the turnout for the iowa caucus has historically been so low. are you going to caucus, pat? >> no. >> are you going to caucus? >> it's probably going to depend on the weather. >> are you going to caucus? >> absolutely not. >> isn't that weird they just stand around in groups? jacob, thanks for cleaning that up for us. let's bring in political reporter lauren french. good morning, lauren. >> good morning. >> so this race is tighter than ever. big question right now in iowa is how meaningful are all of these polls? could we maybe see some real surprises if voters don't come out to caucus in high numbers? >> that's a real question for today. these polls have put donald trump in the lead for months. and the big question is how accurate will they be? because, trump supporters, and

trump voters could be outside of the realm of people who do go to the caucus. you saw in that video a lot of people saying they weren't planning on going to the caucus but could have been counted for trump in these polls. so you're going to see how accurate they are. and whether or not polling in iowa can really predict who will ultimately caucus. you have bernie sanders on the democratic side playing videos at his -- before his rallies telling rotors how to caucus and how to go to their caucus because there is deep concern in both camps that these voters, some of these unlikely caucusgoers just won't show up and you're going to see a big surprise with donald trump perhaps not winning, if the campaign cannot get voters to these caucuses. >> and trump isn't taking any chances. right now the republican candidates for them the word of the day is evangelical. trump's unabashedly courting their vote. how badly does he need their support? >> it's critical in iowa to get evangelical support. that's why you saw both senator ted cruz and donald trump make stops at churches right before

the iowa caucus. in the lead-up, evangelicals are the bulk majority of voters in iowa. without their support really no candidate can hope to win the iowa republican caucus. >> and one important thing to watch in iowa is who the losers are, and where their votes are going to go. so who has the most to lose here, lauren? >> really it is donald trump. if he loses today, that expectation game really does falter. but let's talk about a little bit down ballot. where does jeb bush's supporters go? marco rubio who is currently in third place is really hoping to pick up a lot of those jeb bush supporters. chris christie. and really, right now the battle is between ted cruz and donald trump, and if there's a worse than expected return for donald trump do his supporters get nervous and scatter to cruz, vaulting him into the lead? going to be looking for ben carson supporters, very evangelical, do they jump to trump or ted cruz? and does that bolt either one of them in the polls. >> and it's so tight between bernie sanders and hillary

clinton. what are we expecting on the democratic side? sanders has been raising a lot of money. >> absolutely. you see these rally sizes for bernie sanders look much more like general election rallies than they do primary. the des moines register poll out yesterday had them with only three points of each other. that's a margin of error. hillary clinton came out on top of that poll. so what you're looking here now is really turnout. everyone is saying that fl bernie sanders sees the same level of turnout that barack obama saw in 2008, really he could win, which would be a disappointing loss for hillary clinton, who just months ago was considered by and away the front-runner for this competition. >> neck and neck. it's really exciting race to watch. we will see over the next 24 hours. lauren french, thanks. >> thank you. now just ahead we're going to introduce you to an iowa man who has never joined in the caucuses until now. seizing op. and i'd like to... cut. so i'm gonna take this opportunity to direct. thank you, we'll call you. evening, film noir, smoke, atmosphere...

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this is an interesting election year. it has many people engaged, even some of those who typically aren't. and as iowans prepare to caucus tonight, there's one man who might be caucusing for the first time, because he thinks it's time for a drastic change in the white house. so here he is in his own words. >> i got a convenience store, full-serve automotive repair, and with the gas i sell several different grades of ethanol. and i've been here 22 years going on my 23rd year. if you ask me would i take anybody from washington, d.c. to come in here and run my business, no way. no way. because i got something to lose. they'd have nothing to lose. they're playing with our money. so i think some of them don't

even care who we are out here. they want their power. they got their power, and they want their way. for iowa, not only for iowa, but for the national spotlight, as far as i'm concerned, this is about national security. providing our own fuel, and not buying from the people who want to hurt us. i made the statement to a senator from texas two years ago when i was in d.c., and i said i want america to be energy independent and he said, mr. good, that's a pipe dream if you ever think that's going to happen. and i said, as long as people like you are in charge, that's right. i think a lot of things that we're talking about now wouldn't be talked about in a normal election. but because we have some outsiders involved in the race, things are being talked about. and in my view no matter how much you love or hate donald trump i think some of the reasons we're talking about these things is because he's keeping them up there. >> now a look ahead to the iowa caucuses. some things you should keep in mind. first the caucuses begin promptly at seven o'clock p.m. central, 8:00 p.m. eastern, don't be late because they do shut the doors. the caucuses should wrap up between 10:00 and 11:00 p.m.

lastly, important to know, you must be a registered democrat or republican. unfortunately independents cannot participate. i'm gigi stone woods. "way too early" starts right now. i really want to win. now maybe it won't work that way. but if we do we're going to run the table, folks, and we're going to pak this country so great you're going to have victories all over the place. >> everyone gathered here, literally millions of americans are counting on you. >> if your doctor says you cannot leave your bed, you won't make it. it doesn't matter. get up and caucus. >> if you caucus for me and i am our nominee, i will unite the conservative movement. i will grow the conservative movement. we will defeat the democrats. >> now, people say, you know, that sounds, you know, bernie, like santa claus, you're giving away free stuff. it's very nice of you. how are you going to pay for it? >> i don't think we can wait for ideas to sound good on paper that can't get through the gridlock.

>> when wall street crashed, they went to the middle class for a bailout. now it is wall street's time to help the middle class of this country. after all the polls, all the pundits, and all the predictions, it is now up to the people of iowa. caucus day is here. the candidates are out in full force. but the big question this morning, whose supporters will show up? it's 5:30 on the east coast, 2:30 out west, it is "way too early." and good morning to you. it is monday, february 1st, it is caucus day out in iowa. i'm steve kornacki, and the poll often heralded as the gold standard in