>> when wall street crashed, they went to the middle class for a bailout. now it is wall street's time to help the middle class of this country. after all the polls, all the pundits, and all the predictions, it is now up to the people of iowa. caucus day is here. the candidates are out in full force. but the big question this morning, whose supporters will show up? it's 5:30 on the east coast, 2:30 out west, it is "way too early." and good morning to you. it is monday, february 1st, it is caucus day out in iowa. i'm steve kornacki, and the poll often heralded as the gold standard in iowa, the "des

moines register"/bloomberg politics poll is out now and the race is tight. but donald trump has the edge on the republican side, 28% to senator ted cruz's 23%. that is an eight-point swing in just the last two weeks that gives trump a lead just outside the margin of error. senator marco rubio runs in third place at 15%. ben carson still afloat with 10%, rand paul back at 5%. chris christie down at 3%. the rest of the field, including jeb bush and the last two iowa caucus winners, huckabee and santorum, they are back at just 2%. now this poll landed in the frantic final hours of campaigning this weekend, as donald trump barnstormed the state with jerry falwell jr. for a question and answer style events. but not all of trump's events were quite so low key. like when his plane did this flyover at a massive airport rally in dubuque set to the

theme song from the movie "air force one." trump also attended church with his family on sunday. he took communion and the pastor even came over and offered him a prayer. trump also gave out oversized checks to organizations supporting veteran and active duty troops. and when it came to the race at hand, he seemed to grow more confident as the weekend went on. >> your campaign is based around the idea you're a winner. does that mean you have to win iowa? >> no, i don't have to win it. and right now you and i are sitting in new hampshire and as you know i have a very substantial lead in new hampshire. but i think it would be really good to win iowa. i'd like to win iowa. we have to win this election and we have to win in iowa. a lot of people say donald just say do well in iowa. i say i can't do that. i really want to win. now, maybe it won't work that way. but if we do we're going to run the table, folks and we're going to make this country so great you're going to have victories all over the place. you're going to have victories all over. >> now meanwhile, ted cruz is

battling to stay in position with trump with some campaign literature that is spawning controversy. cruz's campaign sent out a, quote, voting violation mailer with the words official public record at the top, with names and scores of residents and their neighbors with grades saying they failed to turn out to vote in past elections. and that a follow-up notice may be issued after monday's caucuses. now a political science studies have shown that voter shaming can be effective to boost turnout. and cruz is just one of many who've used this tactic. election officials nonetheless condemned the mailer. iowa's republican secretary of state saying it, quote, misrepresents the role of my office and worse, misrepresents iowa election law. cruz defended the mailer as routine while donald trump slammed him for it. >> the chairman of our campaign put out a public statement saying these mailers are routine. that the iowa republican party has done so in the past, and past elections.

and i will apologize to nobody for using every tool we can to encourage iowa voters to come out and vote. our country is in crisis. >> i guess it's something that has been done. it's not allowed to be done. then they're giving you "fs" for your voting records and they're saying, immediately come and vote. i think it's one of the most horrible things that i've seen in politics, and i've seen pretty bad stuff just like you have. and this just came out. and now as you know, he's under investigation by the attorney general or whomever in iowa. >> should say that this time it does not appear that cruz is under any kind of official investigation. over the weekend, cruz went on the attack, reducing his arguments against marco rubio and donald trump to single words. >> listen, we are drawing contrast. both trump and marco are attacking me. they're attacking me with all their might. and we're drawing contrasts. and the contrasts are clear. and the contrasts, by the way, are substantive and policy

based. a vote for marco rubio is a vote for amnesty. and a vote for donald trump is a vote for alabamacare. look, ted cruz is a total liar. i am so against obamacare, i've been saying it for two years in a speeches, i'm going to repeal and replace obamacare. i don't even know where he gets this. but he's a liar. >> but you have said that you want everyone to be covered on health care and the government's going to pay for it. how is that not obamacare? >> that's true. i want people taken care of. i have a heart. i want people taken care of. if people have no money, we have to help people. but that doesn't mean single-payer. it means we have to help people. if somebody has no money and they're lying in the middle of the street, and they're dying, i'm going to take care of them. >> how do you do it? >> -- try to get them back to health. we're going to work with our hospitals. we're going to work with our doctors. we've got to do something. you can't have a small percentage of our economy because they're down and out have absolutely no protection so

they end up dying from, you know, what you could have a simple procedure or even a pill. you can't do that. we'll work something out. that doesn't mean single-payer. and i mean, maybe he's got no heart. and if this means i lose an election, that's fine. because frankly, we have to take care of the people in our country. we can't let them die on the sidewalks of new york or the sidewalks of iowa or anywhere else. >> heading into today's caucuses, marco rubio and chris christie tried to set themselves apart by making a similar pitch to iowa voters. seemingly aimed at the front-runner. >> i will never embarrass you. i will never do anything that makes you cringe and say ugh i can't believe i supported him and i can't believe that's who we picked. >> we need to pick a commander in chief who will make us proud of the vote we made. who will not embarrass us. who will not make us feel less than what we are and what we've always been. here's what i promise you. i'll never embarrass you.

i'll never make you feel ashamed of the vote you made. >> now rubio is trying to force ted cruz to live or die in iowa by the expectations game. over the weekend he met cruz's claim, this was in a last-minute attack ad that rubio is the republican obama. rubio tried to challenge that head-on. >> he's calling you the republican obama. what do you think of that? >> well, other than the fact that i oppose virtually everything barack obama stands for. and what's happened here, it's kind of bizarre, because you know ted is leading in a lot of the polls, he has a vast organization here and has spent ray lot of money, and his campaign has bragged repeatedly about how well they're going to do here so it's kind of strange that at the last minute they've pivoted all their attacks against me and disingenuous attacks. >> rubio also continued hammering cruz on his immigration stance, saying the texas senator is trying to portray himself as the

conservative purist when he's not. >> well, ted portrays himself as some sort of purist and that's not the fact. when he was in the senate he talked about wanting to pass immigration reform about bringing people out of the shadows, et cetera. and so that's -- he's not -- what he portrays himself to be. the lie is that ted continues to try to portray himself as the only conservative in the race and rand paul made the same point. and on this issue and others, ted has been very calculated. >> well, most of the republican candidates are trying to play up their outsider status, jeb bush is embracing his establishment roots. during a campaign event last night bush was quick to defend his family, after being asked, once again, about his connection to the republican mainstream. >> shouldn't be hard for people to understand. i am a bush. i'm not going into the witness protection program. i love my dad. i love my brother. i've learned from them. if that's the definition of being in establishment, i'm it.

okay? what am i going to do. i'm not going to change my name. >> over the weekend, ohio governor john kasich was endorsed by "the new york times," and also by the quad city times after a saturday campaign event kasich was asked about how conservatives might react to the backing from the liberal times. >> well you know what, what conservatives have to know is they have to say, you know, look, isn't it nice that a conservative like me is liked? i mean "the new york times" said he is a conservative. you know, he's certainly not a moderate. you know, they lay out all these positions. but maybe the appeal, in a bigger, broader way, works. and maybe they ought to think about it. because if i get elected president, the republican party and the definition of conservatism is going to change. >> the two leading democratic candidates saved some of their best for the last in iowa over the weekend. on saturday night, bernie sanders was joined by the band vampire weekend at the university of iowa where he spoke to a student-heavy crowd of nearly 4,000. that's his biggest audience in

the state all campaign. and last night, hillary clinton rounded out her weekend with her husband and her daughter at a rally in des moines, where she addressed a packed house of about 2600 people. >> for those of you still thinking about this, weighing your options, i hope i'll be able to persuade you, because the stakes in this election could not be higher. >> if there is a large voter turnout, we will win. >> i don't think america can wait. i don't think we can wait for ideas that sound good on paper, that can't get through the gridlock. >> what the pundits say is they say well young people, you know, they come out to rallies. but you know what? they're not going to come out to participate in the caucus. >> i don't want to overpromise and underdeliver. i'd rather underpromise and overdeliver. >> so how would you like to make the pundits look dumb on

election night? >> and clinton continued her calls for, quote, achievable proposals. jabbing at sanders' health care plan. >> i want you to understand why i'm fighting so hard for the affordable care act. i don't want it repealed. i don't want us to be thrown back in to a terrible, terrible national debate. i don't want us to end up in gridlock. people can't wait. people who have health emergencies can't wait for us to have some theoretical debate about some better idea that will never, ever come to pass. >> what secretary clinton has implied throughout this campaign, the last month or two, that somehow i, who has spent my life fighting for universal health care, to guarantee health care to every man, woman and child, somehow i'm going to dismantle the health care system and leave millions of children without health care or elderly people without health care. that is absolutely an outrageous

and incorrect statement. of course that will never happen. i think our vision is to move forward, to guarantee health care to every man, woman and child in a cost-effective way. >> and you don't think you're going to be a problem for house democrats who don't want to run on raising taxes? >> no. i think, in fact, hillary clinton will be the problem. because i think our campaign is the campaign that is generating excitement and energy that will result in a high voter turnout. republicans win when voter turnout is low. democrats win when voter turnout is high. >> "the new york times" endorsing hillary clinton for the democratic nomination in an editorial over the weekend. calling her one of the most broadly and deeply qualified presidential candidates in modern history. as for the polling heading into tonight, clinton is three points ahead of bernie sanders in the new "des moines

register"/bloomberg politics poll. that is within the margin of error. business now where the good news for investors is january is finally over. panic about a slowdown in china coupled with crashing oil prices led the dow to its worst ten-day start to a year on record going all the way back to 1897. though the dow managed to end the month on an upbeat note rising nearly 400 points on friday. cnbc's jeff cutmore joins us live from london for more. so, jeff, does the bounce mean anything for the month ahead? >> well, a lot of traders are hoping so. i mean this was the worst s&p performance for a january since two thaud nine. so they're looking for a turnaround here for the market. that 400 points is a good lead. but i have to tell you, februarys don't have a great reputation with market participants. so historically february tends to be a poor month, but hey, maybe we get an inversion here. a couple of important bits of data you need to know. that bank of japan interest rate

cut helping stocks higher on friday. so that was part of the reason. the other is that the gdp print for the fourth quarter was a little weaker than expected so maybe the fed will hold back on interest rate moves. we've also got oil easier today. some of our economic story driving the price lower. back to you. >> all right, jeff cutmore live from london. where it's not quite so early. thank you for that. and still ahead on "way too early," touchdown. the panthers and broncos arrive in california ahead of super bowl 50. wait until you see cam newton's arrival. how it got the attention of gq magazine. plus bill karins is tracking a major snowmaker out west. and it's now moving toward iowa. the big question is whether it's going to affect today's caucuses. "way too early" is back in a moment.

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and time now for sports. with a week before kickoff at super bowl 50 teams arrived yesterday in california. the broncos, they are back to the big game for the second time in three years. they were the first to touchdown in san jose. quarterback peyton manning chasing a second super bowl ring in what could be the final game of his storied career. and then about an hour later came the nfc champion carolina panthers, looking to claim the team's first-ever super bowl title. star quarterback cam newton, who certainly doesn't shy away from the spotlight, arriving in style yesterday, sporting gold and zebra print versace pants. gq magazine calling his fashion choice the quote, stuff of champions. meanwhile the league's -- one of the league's best players who will not be appearing in sunday's super bowl, all of those players by the way were at the pro bowl in honolulu yesterday. the teams were drafted and coached by hall of famers jerry rice and michael irvin. without a lombardi trophy to

compete for seahawks quarterback russell wilson lead team irvin to a 49-29 victory. he threw for 164 yards and three first half touchdowns. wilson earns offensive mvp honors. in another nfl headlines this is a big one the detroit lions may have to move forward without one of the greatest players in their franchise's history. star receiver calvin johnson could be hanging up his cleats after nine seasons as a pro. the 30-year-old wideout reportedly told those close to him before the start of the 2015 season that this would be his last. nicknamed mega tron, johnson set the nfl single season record for receiving yards in 2012. he's consistently been one of the league's most physically dominating receivers. but recently, he has been plagued by injuries. struggling with ankle problems for much of the past season. as you may remember, legendary lions running back barry sanders also famously and abruptly retired at the age of 30. maybe it's something about the lions' franchise.

turning now to hockey, where in nashville the nhl wrapped up a successful all-star weekend with a brand-new three-on-three tournament format. 33-year-old veteran john scott a write-in candidate took home the mvp award after netting a pair of goals and captaining the pacific division team to a 1-0 win in the championship. let's get a check now on your weather with nbc meteorologist bill karins. >> good morning, steve. close call in iowa. we're still under blizzard watches. some are now being converted over to blizzard warnings but it does look like the timing is going to be after everyone's home from the caucuses. the latest information, this is 7:00 p.m. when the doors shut. temperatures in the 30s. so that's good. at least the road temperatures are going to be warm even if anything does begin to fall it will be melting. you notice on the radar, some light precipitation is moving in. but our computers hinting it's going to be in the form of maybe some light rain or some light snow and that again with temperatures in the 30s it should not be any problem whatsoever for people going. but this is the biggest storm of the winter for areas of the midwest and for iowa.

so obviously the caucus is on everyone's mind but so is this pending storm. likely a lot of the schools will be closed in iowa if we go throughout the day on tuesday, and maybe even some work places, too. this is 10:00 p.m. this evening where the storm is. now the storm is in california. yesterday, it was a horrible day there. the winds were hauling even through los angeles, overnight the winds were very strong in arizona. and we have winter storm warnings that extend from areas of southern nevada all the way back up now into northern michigan. and these are now blizzard warnings that have been issued for the northwest corner of iowa. the des moines area is right on the edge, forecast is getting a little bit warmer for you. so the heavy snow band will be cutting off just south of des moines. but we still have des moines in about four to eight inches. omaha, possibility of 10 to 14 inches. same with hastings. in the northern half of iowa, that will be getting the worst of this storm. >> all right, bill karins with the caucus day forecast. thanks for that. and still ahead, the sag awards teach the oscars a thing or two about diversity. plus, turning the tables, watch

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the big winners at the screen actors guild awards this weekend? diversity. the diverse array of actors who were honored by the members of the screen actors guild saturday night included viola davis, queen latifah, and he'd riis

elba. he was passed over by the academy awards for his role in the netflix film beasts of no nation helping to fuel this year's boycott against the oscars which nominated no actors of color for the second year in a row. >> ladies and gentlemen, welcome to diverse tv. >> look at this stage. this is what we talk about when we talk about diversity. you know, different race, color, creed, sexual orientation. >> i hope that anyone out there who does not come in the package that people say you should, keep fighting for it. flip those rocks over, keep pushing, keep turning, you can do it. >> the night's top honor for best ensemble in a film went to the newspaper drama "spotlight" which chronicles the boston globe's reporting on sexual abuse and the catholic church. and finally this morning, a

florida woman flips the script on a miami-dade police officer. claudia castillo said she witnessed the officer speeding in excess of 80 miles an hour yesterday. of course she didn't have the sirens for the lights to pull him over, so she just trailed him until he got the paint and pulled over. here's part of the exchange. >> i pushed 80 to try and catch up with you and you were still -- i was still, you know, eating your dust. you were leaving me behind and i was going 80 miles an hour. and i just wanted to know what's the emergency? >> i don't know how fast i was going. but i can tell you this, i'm on the way to work right now. >> mm-hmm. >> i don't believe i was speeding. but like i said, you're entitled to your opinion. i just saw you now when you pulled over next to me which is why i pulled over here. thought you had some kind of emergency. everything fine? >> no everything's fine. it's you're speeding. >> i apologize and i'll be sure to slow down ma'am. >> yeah? >> yeah. >> all right. >> try telling that to an officer the next time he pulls you over. anyway castillo says she just

wanted the officer to stet a good example. the department says it will investigate. and that does it for me and for "way too early." on this iowa caucus day. up next, a special edition of "morning joe" live from java joe's in des moines. the latest polls from iowa have donald trump just ahead of ted cruz, and hillary clinton and bernie sanders locked in a statistical tie. we're going to dig much deeper into those numbers. plus, donald trump, chris christie, rand paul, and rick santorum all will join the conversation and will be joined by major players in iowa politics. the longest-serving governor in u.s. history, republican terry branstad, and senator joni ernst and former senator tom harkin. that and much more coming up next on "morning joe," live from java joe's.

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