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>> when the doctor says you cannot li your bed, you won't make it, it doesn't matter, get up and caucus. >> people say it sounds like santa claus, bernie, you're giving away free stuff. how are you going to pay for it? >> i don't think we can wait for ideas that sound good. >> when wall street clashed they went to the middle-class for a bailout. now it's wall street's time to help the middle-class of this country. [ cheers and applause ] >> goerod morning and welcome t "morning joe" at java joes in des moines, iowa. >> we're back. been a long run getting here. we're talking about this campaign for seven years and

it's time to vote. >> we are here, how exciting. >> it's a long, winding road. monday, february 1, decision day, in the state that can set candidates on the course for the white house or dash the dreams of could be commanders in chief. >> after months of campaigning, hundreds of rallies and a political shakeup that few could have ever imagined, tonight it is tonight when voters here are going to caucus for their candidate and set the stage for a presidential election that is now ten months away. >> we have a huge show with presidential contenders donald trump, chris christie, rick santorum, rand paul plus the people who know iowa politics better than anyone, the nation's longest-serving governor, terry branstad will be with us, republican senator joni ernst and former senator tom harkin straight ahead on "morning joe." on set, we have legendary columnist in -- >> there it is. >> come on now.

msnbc contributor mike barnicle. managing editors of bloomberg politics, mark halperin and john heilemann along with willie, joe and me. we have a lot of guests coming up. let's get right to the polls. how is it looking. >> the day of the caucus, the poll that's often rald heralded the cream of the crop, the poll that's gotten it right since 1988 except for rick santorum's upset victory is the "des moines register" bloomberg poll. this is how tight the race is. donald trump. >> he's got the edge 28% to senator ted cruz's 23%. an eight-point swing in two weeks that gives trump a lead just outside the margin of error. senator marco rubio is in third at 15%. ben carson still afloat with 10% in fourth place and senator rand paul at 5%, chris christie at 3%. and the rest of the pack at next

to nothing. mark halperin, i always look at trend line. three trend lines at the very top there, trump way up, cruz down as he is in most polls and marco rubio flat lining. >> yeah, i mean, look, that's a snapshot of where the race is, let's see what the turnout is like. a big turnout helps trump, a very evangelical turnout helps cruz but he is outside the margin of error and unless donald trump has a candidate facing voters performs differently than donald trump as a campaigner, he will win here tonight. >> how are you feeling from your reporting on the ground? >> trump has been -- we did an iowa poll in january and that put cruz ahead. we talked to trump about it, he talked about being rattled about that poll when he saw ate few weeks ago. now he easton rise. cruz in every poll slowly

declining but we ran alternative scenarios and as mark said if the turnout is small and the evangelicals come out in big numbers, cruz could close that gap. we saw trump in sioux city, i was surprise head had a relatively small crowd, smallest crowd for trump in this home stretch anywhere. maybe that means nothing, maybe it means something, who knows? >> you look into the poll, though, trump won in every -- if there's a big turnout, trump wince. a smaller turnout, trump wins. i think db maybe i heard her say that he's exactly where he wants to be. >> he is. >> and he has support in areas that are surprising. steve kornacki last night was talking about how he's doing very well in areas that rick santorum scored well in four years ago. >> trump has support across the board. neighbor secret to trump's victory here is he is the establishment candidate. if you add up the establishment support, not as much as ted cruz let alone as much as trump.

where's the missing establishment vote we've been waiting for? trump has a lot of it. >> let's look at combined support. trump picks up a few second choice votes if we look inside this poll. only 7% while cruz and rubio are the fallback picks of 17 and 20% of those polled respect ily. but trump's support is more secure. 71% of those saying they support him with their minds made up. 61% for cruz and half of rubio's supporters saying they could be persuaded otherwise? >> at any election you want to have your people stick with you the most and i wanted to make sure when i had people voting for me that they would have marched through a snowstorm and i knew the morning of no matter what happened if it was a flood my people would be there. that looks like that's what trump's got right now. the other side, marco's seem to be the softest. so you wonder.

i know if this were a primary i would say if we were new hampshire and south carolina i would say without a doubt trump will win. is it 15, 20, 25? who knows. but mike, a caucus is a caucus. it's a different animal. >> and that leads to one of the more intriguing elements of the caucus. what happens with cruz's people in the caucus if they can wean away ben carson supporters. >> i think that's the biggest single key to tonight. the cruz people are well organized. they'll be at every caucus meeting and they'll make the case to carson supporters "a vote for carson is a wasted vote, he won't win. switch from carson to ted cruz." if carson support goes from 10% where we have it to 5% cruz will win tonight if they can bring people away from carson. >> relatively small turnout, relatively high evangelical turnout and flips from carson to

cruz we can see cruz pull this out. >> on favorability carson and rubio are strongest at 72 and 70% each. cruz's favorables have dropped to 65% after a rough few weeks and trump's numbers have taken a hit as well down four points since the last poll and seven points since december. what do you make of trump's numbers going down? is it attacking too much? that was ugly between him and cruz. >> it has been and it's hurt them both i think. trump has been lucky, he's taken far fewer hits than has cruz from not just each other but other groups. polls show skipping the debate didn't hurt trump very much. i think trump's favorable is good enough to win. >> before we go to the democrats, alex, let's get out the republicans, the new hampshire poll that just came out that also was taken during and after the debate. and it shows in new hampshire --

it shows that donald trump not only is holding his own but trump has exploded five points in the new hampshire primary which, of course, we all head to after iowa. trump at 38%, cruz way down at 13% jeb 10, marco at 10. >> this is the franklin pierce/boston "herald" poll. >> but certainly this poll that came out -- there's 5%, 5%, 5% for the "herald" poll. trump is just get stronger and stronger. >> it's easy to say this is the first state voting, there's 49 to come, ted cruz says it, trump says it. if donald trump wins, he'll be very hard to stop given where he is in new hampshire right now so tonight on both sides is a huge deal. if the current poll leaders, trump and clinton win tonight, it will be hard to stop them. >> that's the train right there. let's go to the democrats. the "new york times" editorial board endorsed hillary clinton for the democratic nomination over the weekend calling her one

of the most broadly and deeply qualified presidential candidates in modern history. as for the polling, clinton is ahead of bernie sanders by just three points, in the new "des moines register" bloomberg politics poll that's within the margin of error. meanwhile, clinton supporters appear to be more set in their choice than bernie sanders backers with 83% saying their mind is made up to support her compared to 69% for sanders. still both candidates remain widely popular among iowa democrats. sanders net favorability rating is plus 70 and clinton is plus 46. but on the question of which candidate cares most about people like you, sanders outperforms clinton 51% to 37%. as you move on to new hampshire -- or do you want to stay in iowa? >> mike barnicle, talk about a tossup. >> i think she's going to pull it out. >> hillary and bernie, 45%-42%.

>> it's an amazing number given who they both are and there's an undefined element in that campaign that will impact the campaign sooner or later and that's what will happen in the justice department. i mean, you can just sense among democrats as they're seated on -- they're on the edge of their seats trying to figure out what will happen and what determining factor that will play in the nomination process. >> mark halperin, you and i were talking on friday morning about how there was more to come. >> but it seemed like a long way away. >> everything we heard in the administration from top people in the administration all across the administration in different agencies and then that afternoon pretty startling news coming out. >> look, the legal calendar, we don't know what it is, we know the political calendar, bernie sanders announced yesterday he's raised $20 million, he's forced secretary clinton to agree to

more debates so bernie sanders even if he loses here tonight can go forward with lots of money, with debates on the schedule and see if there are developments in the legal front that allow him to win even after tonight if he doesn't win. >> by the way that is -- this is one of the things it does. a couple people held their breath when we talked about it the other day. everybody in the government, everybody in the media, everybody that runs anything is how advanced this investigation is and nobody's telling the american people about it. so i had an executive in the network, is it safe to talk about it now? we talked about it. then that afternoon, explosive revelations came out and there are more. >> to me the most interesting thing about that is that in the last 48 hours when bernie sanders has been asked about the hillary clinton e-mail thing having famously in the debate this in a few months ago said

don't worry about it, no one wants to hear about your e-mails, he said i don't think it's irrelevant, there's a process playing out here. bernie sanders edging towards retracting his nobody cares about your dam e-mails things. you can imagine sanders not attacking her personally but him saying look, this is something we have to think about and bring into a discussion. >> mike barnicle, when bernie sanders is hearing from top leaders in the administration that this is further along than expected, he doesn't want to be caught saying it's not a big deal and having the fbi suggest it is. >> there's just too much buzz around it from all different levels of government, media and everything to ignore it and bernie has no longer ignored it. the other thing about bernie sanders, a stunning number, the $20 million is stunning, but from over 700,000 individuals. >> isn't that unbelievable? >> stunning. >> if he wins tonight he will raise tens of millions of dollars in month, i think. if you take a look back 30,000 feet now at both of these races

that we're watching tonight, if you took a year ago, say, or even six, seven months ago, bernie sanders is head to head right now neck in neck with hillary clinton you would haven't believed it. >> we have two incredible stories that have just developed. >> when our poll came out saturday night, the sanders people pointed out "when we started this race, we were 41 points behind her now we're basically neck in neck." that's an extraordinary thing that happened on that side. of course trump totally out of left field. you think on the democratic side just to say the last thing about this, the two candidates are right where they wanted to be in some ways. robbie mook told us "we'd love to be just two ahead. if we're two ahead that will keep our people motivated but be in the lead." from the sanders people two behind, they've been rousing their crowds saying we're in striking distance, one last push, get across the finish line. it's interesting to have two candidates that close, both where they want to be on the morning of the caucuses.

kind of unusual. >> as we said, it will be a turnout game for donald trump, it will be a turnout game for bernie sanders. if those new voters come out, the young voters come out, he'll do well. if you go back and look at the turnout in the caucus, 2008 it was 240,000 people. >> wow. >> that's an astonishing number. he won't approach that but if he gets something that exceeds the normal, look for bernie sanders to win tonight. new hampshire now, a pair of new polls showing sanders maintaining a strong lead ahead in next week's primary there. he leads clinton by 20 points in a new franklin pierce/"boston herald" poll out of the granite state and a new cnn/wmur/university of new hampshire poll shows him with a wider lead. sanders out front by 23 points in the state of new hampshire. >> wow. tonight's important. >> tonight is so important. wasn't there a cnn poll that came out on the republican side, too? do you know? >> in new hampshire? >> check that out, see if there's a cnn poll that came out in new hampshire as well.

those numbers show how important tonight is. pat buchanan, brother pat always talked about when he was running for president, he said winning iowa is worth $100 million in free advertising. it's $100 million in earned media. here's the poll out of new hampshire. that's on the republican side, we showed that. i meant to ask if there was a cnn poll out of iowa, never mind. it's early, 5:00 a.m. out here. pat said it's worth $100 million. then new hampshire is worth another $100 million. if trump wins tonight and if bernie wins tonight -- >> oh, my lord. >> -- you can literally throw every poll away that has been done in every other state and nationally because by the time the noise machine and star makeer machinery, as joni mitchell would say, churns up

over the next few weeks for these two huge upsets of these political titans -- >> there's a circus metaphor, too, i'm thinking it. >> exactly. the race begins anew and democrats start talking about jumping in. >> if you look at the data and trump's skills and resources, the only logical reason to say if he wins here tonight he doesn't steam troroll to the nomination is no one has ever done that. no one just runs the table as a non-incumbent. every other piece of data suggests if trump wins this nomination fight is over. >> well, he hasn't been wrong so we can ask him about that so far. still ahead on "morning joe," republican presidential candidates, trump, governor chris christie, rick santorum, and senator rand paul. plus, iowa's political heavyweight, governor terry branstad, senator joni ernst and former senator tom harkin. up next from the "des moines register" chief political reporter jennifer jacobs on the

burning question that will be answered on tonight's caucuses. another question, how an approaching snowstorm will impact the caucuses. we'll have that but right now here's the forecast in iowa. bill, how does it look? it looks like a close call but it looks like it will wait until after the caucuses. this is 7:00 p.m. when the doors shut, temperatures in the 30s. snow in areas of nebraska but not in iowa and by 10:00 p.m. when it's over with and they're wrapping things up we should be okay. maybe light snow or rain starting but we should be fine. the big huge storm will be moving in after midnight and when everyone in iowa wakes up tuesday morning to fiejd o ingi won, they that's when we'll see snowstorm and blizzard conditions. we have blizzard warnings that have just been issued now for the northern portions of iowa, the northwestern sections in areas of omaha. how much snow? the des moines area is on the borderline where you guys are. it's north of des moines that

will be the most. this punk and red color, that's 10 to 14 inches of snow. so des moines about four to eight inches, areas to the northern half of the state possibly more and the blowing and drifting, tuesday will be ugly but for the caucus tonight it looks like everyone will get to the caucus sites just fine. driving home it may be just starting. more "morning joe" when we come back live from iowa.ee ♪jake reese, "day to feel alive"♪ ♪jake reese, "day to feel alive"♪ i thione second it's there.day. then, woosh, it's gone. i swear i saw it swallow seven people. seven. i just wish one of those people could have been mrs. johnson.

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>> your campaign is based around the idea you're a winner. does that mean you have to win iowa? >> no, i don't have to win it. we're sitting in new hampshire and i have a very substantial lead in new hampshire but i think it would be good to win iowa. i'd like to win iowa. >> we have to win in iowa. a lot of people say, donald, just say do well in iowa. i say i can't do that. i really want to win. now, maybe it won't work that way, but if we do we'll run the table and we'll make this country so great, you'll have victories all over the place. you'll have victories all over. >> it's 22 past. we're hear at java joes just like we live here. that was quite an event here last night at java joes. we turned the place upside down.

more on that later. joining us now, chief politics reporter for the "des moines register," jennifer jacobs and former treasury official and "morning joe" economic analyst steve rattner. good to have you both with us. >> jennifer, any other candidate that was ahead in 49 states but losing one, iowa, would say "i'm in 49 states, that's good enough." donald trump, since falling behind in iowa, has been obsessing and it's a gamble but right now -- >> his entire family has been here. >> it looks like a gamble that might pay off. what's it looking on the republican side. >> today is the day that we have all these questions answered. can he live up to the hype? this is like christmas day. so what it's looking like is donald trump has his troops out across the state. he's been calling people, mailing people, reaching out to everyone, reminding them of where their caucus site is, which is the basic. >> so the trump campaign does have a get out the vote message? >> they do. in fact, they've been calling everyone. i kind of polled my neighbors.

he has called all of them, everyone in my neighborhood. >> i've been told by the campaign they were calling 25,000 people a day, reaching out very aggressively. what does it look like, though, on the ground as far as ted cruz's operation, marco rubio's operation? is -- sort of urban legend is that cruz has this remarkable get out the vote operation so he has the best chance of winning. i always tell the mike huckabee story where mike huckabee's entire campaign staff was one college kid sitting outside of a bus going "yeah, the governor niece there." whereas romney had like fleets of people making calls and on computers and headsets. >> a different dynamic, though. >> i'm just saying -- i'm just wondering, talking about the other campaigns. >> it's so hard to say which campaigns have the best ground game. what it comes down to is the argument, you have donald trump, if he wins he will be the first candidate since 2000 who didn't go to all 99 counties which, you know, that's supposedly a big

deal in iowa. iowans don't require it but it's a way for people to get to know the candidates one on one. trump hadn't done that. and if ted cruz wins, he'll be the first candidate in history who's had a governor condemn his campaign and say he would be dangerous for the state. >> so steve -- put up that last chart on events by candidates. unfortunately in 2016 you can't tell your children that hard work is off because in iowa and new hampshire, if you can put that chart back up right there, look at this, who did the most events in iowa -- rick santorum first, mick huckabee second and martin o'malley third. grow to new hampshire and the top one was lindsey graham. in this year going to the most events and playing by the old rules doesn't guarantee success. >> obviously a lot of those candidates were doing that are

relatively fringe candidates. >> well, santorum won and huckabee won in '08. >> if even they visited all 99 counties again, it's probably not their year. but it's interesting trump has gotten where he's gotten without being on your list of top ten visits to the state. he dips in, does his event and is gone again. >> i will bet you at that trump has had at his event people from all 99 counties. people come from hours away. he didn't go to 99 counties, 99 counties came to him. and i'll say i believe now, my intuition is the trump organization is bigger than they've let on. they've down played. the cruz people brag about it, i think the trump people have built something bigger they don't want people to know, they want to surprise people tonight. >> let's talk about the third candidate. this is open to everybody. we're now hearing if marco rubio finishes a distant, distant, distant third than that's a win.

which reminds me i was reading about all the people riding -- all the smart people in '08 that rudy giuliani's last place in iowa was a big win for him. is a distant third place a win for rubio? >> this is a candidate that's cutout. he's the perfect candidate for winning iowa, popular with tea party conservatives as well as evangelical conservatives. he should be getting the coalition donald trump is getting. he has higher favorables, trump is despited by our caucus electorate. >> i was in my kitchen yesterday, turned the tv on to check in and there was donald trump going "kids, get on the plane" and cut to "maybe ivanka will have her baby in iowa" and the crowd going wild and i turned it off. i'm like whatever. who can compete with that? >> there's the kids playing on the plane. unbelievable. >> seriously. >> get on the plane, kids.

jennifer, what's your sense of someone who know this is state so well about turnout? we said for either bernie sanders or trump turnout will be important get not guilty voters out. how do you feel like that will go based on the enthusiasm in the state? >> i think it will be record. we had about 120,000 last time. i think we could get up to 140,000 for the republicans. >> so you think there will be a bigger turnout? >> i do. but the democrats will never match the 2008 numbers with obama and the 240,000 you were talking about. that's not in the cards. >> you can't tell with these clouds. >> how's the hillary thing? you have supported her in the past and new people in the organization. how are they feeling right now? >> i'm sure they're nervous. this is important for them. >> it shouldn't be this close. >> you talked earlier in the show about how well bernie sanders did in january raising money which is astounding, we have to recognize that, this is

critical because if she loses that new hampshire will be tough and even though the south looks better iny you have to get off to a good start. >> jennifer jacobs, thank you so much. we'll see what happens coming up. >> going to be a long day, long night. by the way, what time should we set our alarm clocks to find out -- >> i hope we know by 10:00 p.m. >> you think we may know by 10:00? >> central. >> 10:00 central. all right, coming up, could bernie sanders be the first millennial president? h huh? i get this, sort of like bill clinton being -- kasie hunt explain house the 74-year-old social cyst redefining political rock star. >> they break out vampire weekend, he's got my vote. >> and he sang "this land is your land." we'll have to play that for you. the woman behind the gold standard of iowa polling ann selzer joins the conversation. "morning joe" is back in a moment live from java joes in des moines, iowa. cause we were born 100 years ago

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[ cheers and applause ] >> welcome back to "morning joe." with us right now, nbc news correspondent kasie hunt and also willie heist. >> great cover, the "des moines register" this morning simply says "caucus!" request w all the candidates. this is such a fun day in this state. 1681 precincts, people gathering

in schools and classrooms. if you're a democrat you get your group and go into a corner then move to another group if your candidate doesn't make it. such a great process. >> and on both sides of the aisle a huge story to cover. >> this is a massive story. people talk about how it doesn't matter because they get fringe candidates. no, iowa the action is here. we know, seem to know, a lot of what will happen in new hampshire. if iowa goes as according to planned. but here campaigns rise and fall based on whether trump wins. >> especially this time. >> and also bernie sanders. >> this time. >> both of these guys winning here would be an earthquake. >> it didn't make the difference for every candidate. now you've been following, kasie, bernie sanders on the trail. what's been the response? >> bernie sanders has -- it's turned into a bit of a sentimental journey these past couple days. be but they've been holding big capstone rallies.

and i'm new to the democratic side. >> you have whiplash right now, don't you? >> just a little bit of whiplash but one of the things i've been trying to figure out is why does bernie sanders have so much appeal with younger kids? college kids, hipsters even. he's kind of an unlikely hero. the iowa field house packed with screaming fans. rocking out the vampire weekend. waiting for their political rock star. >> please, make some noise for senator bernie sanders. [ cheers and applause ] >> reporter: a guy who seems more at home with peter, paul and mary. ♪ this land was made for you and me ♪ this 74-year-old senator with a thick brooklyn accent is somehow cool. >> go out and vote! >> authenticity. he is who he is. he's not trying. it's like everything those brooklyn hipsters are trying to

be with their beards and their stuff, he is that guy. >> to the generation who came of age in a recession, his focus on the tough economy strikes a chord. >> i think you should be involved in that decision-making process. not some billionaire in washington. >> one of the simplest things to say about bernie is this guy was independent for decades. >> reporter: more than that, it's about wanting someone real. >> for someone to stand up and say what they believe even though they know it will be unpopular with people, but they say it because they believe it to be true, that's cool. >> you see these kids out there, they're psyched about a guy who does not have the normal signifiers of style of cool but he's consistent. >> reporter: the clinton campaign calls sanders' ideas wishful. >> now, in theory there's a lot to like about some of his ideas. but in theory isn't enough. >> reporter: but a sanders win might not be wishful thinking anymore if the young fans who will happy to go to a concert

will come out for a far less glamorous caucus. >> i think if the voter turnout is high, yes. >> you think they'll come out for you? >> we'll see soon enough. >> that's incredible. >> first of all, i know woody guthrie wrote "this land is your land." controversy on the internet. many of us learned it from peter, paul and mary. you can see the difference in the energy around besrnie sanders. >> incredible. >> and as ann was talking about with the new poll, they know they're a couple point "cbs evening news" hee-- points behi and they're trying to use that as the idea of showing up but also going back to having covered republicans before the energy around candidates like donald trump and bernie sanders is actually kind of similar and frankly for candidates like hillary clinton, jeb bush, markedly lower and i think that defines the whole election. >> we'll see if it makes a difference tonight. >> willie, we're looking at two different things going into tonight. you have to fact that bernie sanders supporters are younger.

>> really younger. >> and less likely to get out and vote. and yet every reporter that's been to a bernie sanders event and been to a hillary clinton event says the excitement, the energy, the drive of the bernie sanders event. >> the joy. >> like nothing they've seen. i've yet to hear somebody come from a hillary clinton event that doesn't say it's sort of dull, sleepy, no energy in the room. so you have to balance those two things out and who know what will happen? >> that's been the question for months as we've talked about donald trump. can he translate these massive clouds as he talks about 30,000 people in mobile, alabama. does that translate to the go out and vote and tonight we get the answer. >> joining us on set along with steve rattner, president of selzer and company, the pollster behind the bloomberg/"des moines register" poll, ann selzer. and you mentioned even 17-year-olds can caucus. but will they? >> will they? well, i think what you're seeing now is candidates getting in

place all of the things that need to be there. i was handed a door hanger for bernie sanders that said "here's where you go to caucus." because where you caucus is not necessarily where you vote. so there's a whole education part of knowing where to show up once you decide you will show up. >> that's where you've lost the 17-year-olds because they're not even listening, right? >> that is a question. and certainly you weigh a lot of different things. we put together the gold standard of iowa polling do you not discount younger voters getting out and caucusing? >> we don't discount anybody who says they will definitely or probably caucus. people go to these events, reporters, and they say "i'm just running into people that say maybe i'll caucus." and we say well, they're not in our poll. >> so do you notice an uptick of younger voters who say they will definitely caucus? >> that's who bernie sanders' constituency is. younger, first time, those two things go together. >> and you're getting definitely

from those younger first timers? >> we are getting enough that something could happen for bernie sanders. >> wow. >> so since you have the gold standard of polls, what's your level of confidence this time? do you think your poll will be as accurate? >> we hope so. we hope so. the thing about the caucus is it's designed for things to change in that room. on the democratic side the architecture is very much we're going to shake things up, we're going to count twice. so we expect there to be change. on the republican side, you look at all -- the reason trump can do well at 28, which is not very many people supporting him really, is that it's a huge field and you have people eating up 2% 2,% 2,% 3%. as people are working the room before the caucus starts, you have to think that the rubio people, the cruz people, are going after the bush people, the santorum people saying make your vote count because 2% is not sending a message. >> you say the nuns are going to play it big. >> the nuns are big. >> the nuns will be big.

>> on both sides in this race the strongest constituency is so gas na fascinating to me. bernie sanders, the nones. >> by the way, it's n-o-n-e. >> one of the fastest-growing groups in politics, 40% lead for bernie sanders. so if the nones show up they'll take care of things. >> kasie hunt and ann selzer, thank you very much for being on. up next, the republican front-runner for president donald trump joins us for a live interview straight ahead on "morning joe." we're live there java joes in iowa. in new york state, we believe tomorrow starts today. all across the state the economy is growing, with creative new business incentives, the lowest taxes in decades, and university partnerships, attracting the talent and companies of tomorrow. like in utica, where a new kind of workforce is being trained.

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[ applause ] welcome back to "morning joe." a couple very bizarre mailers, i've never seen anything like it mark halperin and john heilemann.

did you see this? it's sort of the shaming flyer that cruz and rubio sent out where they're shaming people for not voting in the past. sort of a bizarre -- "voting violation. ted cruz accuses you of a voter violation." >> that's an interesting approach. >> isn't that bizarre? >> they're trying to put peer pressure on voters. >> is that legal? >> well, the attorney general is looking into that cruz thing. all these campaigns are using everything they can and the cruz campaign particularly is interested in the psychology of voters and trying to figure out what buttons they can press. >> it's just weird. i don't get it. voter violation. it looks visual, i don't know whether it should be legal or not and here's what rubio did. sending out a report card and xs next to these people's names. >> that's a way to connect. >> just a bizarre way to -- >> let's bring in republican presidential candidate donald trump. donald trump have you seen these mailers by these other

candidates and did v you guys mailed out that scores voters ifs or xs them out or anything like that? >> no, we're doing it the honest way, joe. we've decided we should do it the honest way. i haven't seen the rubio one but the cruz one is unbelievable. i saw actually an actual copy and it looks right out of municipal government and it says, you know, violation and it's amazing and i've never seen anything like. this it's a total fraud. now he's being investigated over it but it's a total fraud, a disgrace that they can do it. >> let's ask you about your iowa campaign. a lot of talk about possibility of a second place finish. some are even saying you could finish in third yet the polls are showing you still -- the gold standard polls showing you still ahead by five. what are your internal polls showing or what are you feeling

on the ground? >> well, we're feeling very good. we have a lot of people, we have great support, we hope to do well. i don't know. i can't tell you what's going to happen because it's an election and the only poll that matters is the poll that starts in a little while and it's going to be very interesting. here we are after a long period of time the day has arrived where we begin this really incredible process so i look forward to it. it will be very interesting. i just don't know what to tell you. the poll came out yesterday and it says we're number one and that's good. i think i'm number one in every single state and we're number one in every national poll, too. >> so when you really think of it, when it comes down tonight, you have absolutely no control over what happens. how does that feel? >> well, i'm going to be attending the caucus and, you know, maybe i'll do a couple of them, actually, if i can. but i'm going to be there tonight and i'll do the best i can to persuade people.

but it will be a very interesting evening. i've never caucused before and it's a different way of doing things and, you know, iowa is a tremendous place. it's got a great history behind it for doing this and there's tremendous spirit. the people are great. so we'll see what happens tonight. >> hey, donald, it's willie, good to talk to you on this caucus morning. ted cruz is obviously your closest challenger here tonight. a lot of people are saying if you beat him tonight, he's finished going forward in this race. is it your mission tonight to finish off ted cruz? >> not to finish him off. i don't think he'll be finished but he'll be certainly hurt because he's put everything he can into iowa. he put every single person, he put all of his money and he put a lot of effort. as you know, he's doing terribly in new hampshire. he's not doing well -- his hope is to do well in iowa to win it and to then do better in new

hampshire than he's doing right now so i don't know -- i know we're doing really well in new hampshire, you look at new hampshire, we have a 25-point lead that just came out yesterday so it's going to be -- willie, all i can say is let's see what happens. a tremendous number of people here but i tell you what i have so much spirit, the spirit of the people, we gave yesterday dr. jerry falwell endorsed me and a lot of people say that donald's doing really well with the evangelical s and that's true, we have tremendous support and they like me a lot. and i won't say the reasons why because it may sound like i'm bragging but they like strength for the country and they can see that. they like the strong military and the borders and we also had sheriff joe from arizona endorse me two days ago. you know, he is -- if you talk about borders, there's nobody like him on the borders that we

know and that meant something and, of course, sarah palin who's terrific and she endorsed me very strongly and everybody thought she would endorse cruz and she said she couldn't do it, she thought our campaign was so amazing and it's a movement. it's literally a movement, i've never seen anything like it. we go to a room, we think we'll have a small gathering and we end up with 4,000, 5,000 people. so we have the biggest crowds. we have much bigger crowds than bernie but he is second, i will say, because it's amazing what he's done also. but it's been amazing. >> mike barnicle? >> donald today as people vote in caucuses it's the first step in a long and exhausting process. in addition to the search for personal stamina what has this process so far taught you about yourself have you learned anything about yourself that you haven't known prior to this?

>> well i think more than anything else what i've learned about other things would be the people of this country are incredible, they're smart, they get it, they know what's happening. about smoois that i've really enjoyed this process, i didn't think i'd enjoy it this much. i've gone all out. a lot of people said when i announced, well, he's just going to have some fun and do it and then he'll get -- continue to get great ratings on "the apprentice" and they thought i was doing it for that. and i dropped "the apprentice" which was hard for me to do because it's been a great show for a long period of time and nbc want med so badly they would have done anything to have me. steve burke, a viewer of your show, by the way, but the head of comcast came up to my office with a group from nbc and wanted me to sign and do more "apprentice" and didn't want me to run. i said "steve i'm going to run." but i never knew i was going to enjoy it as much as i've enjoyed

it. it's been incredible. i've enjoyed it. that might surprise you guys. i think that might surprise joe and mika but i've enjoyed the process and, you know, i look forward to tonight and to leaving probably very late tonight or depending on what happens with the storm. it looks like the storm is going to miss the hours that we have to worry about for the caucus so that will be good. it will start really tomorrow morning sometime. but i'll be heading out to new hampshire where the people have been equally incredible and where the poll numbers are even better. >> well, we look forward to catching up with you on the way to new hampshire. donald trump thank you very much for being on. we will see what happens tonight. and chris matthews is here at java joes. plus chuck todd on the trim lines that could make or break caucus night for hillary clinton. we'll be right back with more "morning joe." [ cheers and applause ] i've been called a control freak...

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coming up next hour live from des moines, iowa, governor chris christie joins us on set, plus home state senator joni ernst but first republican strategist steve schmidt is standing by along with chuck todd, also the great tom brokaw on how this presidential race is unlike any other. we're live at java joes.

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>> for example and a couple of the others as well, they're going to have a very hard time going into new hampshire. when senator bernie sanders -- >> that's not hard. exactly. >> so he's not going to even try. but chuck todd, looking ahead to new hampshire like, you know, all the other campaigns are looking ahead, too, if trump wins here, he's already up by 20 points there in the latest poll. bernie's up by 20 plus. that's why i win by cruz and clinton are critical. >> they are. hillary clinton can write off a new hampshire loss but this is -- i had one clinton strategist say this to me. losing iowa will cost them $50

million. >> that's one way of look agent it. >> and they know sanders isn't going anywhere. look how much money he raised this month. who's raising more money on either side of the aisle? bernie sanders. so he's got the money to go through the end. but it will cost hillary clinton, she'll have to take this seriously, she'll have to fight every primary, every caucus if she loses here. if she can win here then all of a sudden while bernie has his fall log following -- >> it all starts to happen her. >> but 54%-45% gives her the nomination in may. >> so steve, what are you guys looking at? we know what the outside looks at with the press and other people but inside a campaign on the morning of the caucus what are you looking at? >> you don't have a lot of control on these mornings. this is a long, long day. until the votes start to get counted later this evening, you hope you've done everything correctly with your turnout

operation that every "i" is dotted every "t" is crossed but you're sitting back at the headquarters looking at -- >> it's awful. it's awful. by the way, today is even worse because nobody's voting in the afternoon. >> turnout is really strong in urban dale. >> i will tell, you steve, in my campaigns, i campaigned for a year and a half, i campaigned around the clock, i was maniacal. election day i threw my phone away, not go the car and just drove. i literally drove for eight hours across a district. you are -- tom we were just talking to donald trump donald -- i won't say he sounded tight but he didn't sound himself because this is the first time there this whole campaign that it's out of his hands. >> his sons last night, we ran into one of them and they went pheasant hunting at a reserve. they were cool and confident but

you're right this morning in whitesville, iowa, in dubuque on the east and in sioux city in the west people are getting up and not all of them -- we know this from history -- are locked in about what they'll do tonight. they're going to the coffee shop and talking to friends and wives and husbands and sorting it out. the history shows there is a lot of fluctuation that goes on back and forth in this election i think most of all between trump and other top runners in republican side, rubio and cruz, they probably are firmed up a little more. >> so i was going ask you, steve. tom talked about voters locked in. how suggest cant is in the the latest "des moines register"/bloomberg poll that trump has the most voters locked in. in fact, look at most of the polls that have been done, trump support is stronger and they will stay there even if he, as

he says, shoots somebody on fifth avenue. >> look, the truth of the matter is if you gave truth serum to everybody in all these campaigns you look at donald trump's campaign, you'd rather be donald trump than anybody else in this field. the. of all of the surveys, all of the polling showed that donald trump is ahead in iowa right now. and if donald trump wins here tonight he's off to the races. >> it's difficult to see where he loses next. you're ted cruz, you don't win here tonight, where do you win next? it's big news for donald trump if he wins tonight. >> there's nobody -- look, two people -- iowa matters tremendously for two candidate, ted cruz one, bernie sanders two. you cannot work backwards. cleveland, philadelphia, bernie sanders is the nominee? is he the nominee without winning iowa? no. ted cruz the nominee without winning?

no. >> it's hard to project about how many people will turn out and where they will be but in the trump case he has a lot of people who have never gone to caucuses before. he's lit up that part of iowa because he has spoken of them in terms of their rage and he's a big deal guy. look how he turns out people at his concerts and -- i mean rallies and those kinds of things so that probably will work very much for him because they say, look, i've never gone into a caucus before, first time in 40 years i talked to somebody over the weekend, i'm going for trump. he has a population of that around the state, that will work very well for him. >> i tell you, willie, a couple days ago i was thinking that cruz was going to win this thing because we'd heard about his organization and that trump didn't have much of an organization. i will tell you over the last 24 hours -- and, of course, we here in the fog of war. nobody knows, it's a caucus, nobody knows what will turn out. rubio could end up winning. nobody knows. but suddenly the "des moines

register" reporters are talking about trump is calling 25,000 people a day, all of her neighbors have been called by trump, they all have door hangers. it's almost like they are trying to fly under the radar. they have had a massive turnout operation but they haven't talked to people about it, they haven't bragged about it. i guess that's what it comes down to. if they get their people out, they win. >> that's the cruz campaign's argument. we saw it in a "new york times" piece over the weekend. they have a machine that while trump may have the big crowds, they have this turnout machine akin to what obama did in 2008, the micro target, handwritten notes to people on issues. they feel like that's their edge here. but as jennifer jacobs of the "register" said, trump has a very underrated machine in this state. >> by the way, the confidence of the cruz campaign, on the one hand i admire it. a lot of times campaigns who know they here in a do-or-die situation they try to game it, "look, we just have to do well."

no, cruz campaign says, a, we think we're winning and, b, if we don't, we miscalculated. i give them that credit. they're totally both confident and honest. >> on that point if you look deeper into the "des moines register"/bloomberg politics poll, trump's support is more secure. 71% saying they will support him with their minds made up. 61% for cruz and more than half of rubio's supporters saying they could still be persuaded otherwise. >> let's look at that number. 47-53. steve schmidt, halperin and i have been asking for six months and keep that up. who are rubio's supporters. what's his natural base? because in primaries especially, generalists don't win. you need a crowd. you need people that will walk through a glass -- like a glass window for you and keep walking. >> or blizzard. >> or a blizzard.

and those numbers right there, rubio's numbers, over half, still could change their mind that suggests that's kind of the case. who's his core constituency? >> his core constituency become what is we call the establishment in the republican party if he comes in third place tonight. it positions him in new hampshire as who is the alternative to these outsider candidates? these outsider candidates right now, you have to look at the trump, carson, cruz votes. >> let's say he finishes a distant third. let's put up the latest new hampshire poll. the latest new hampshire poll that came out after trump decided not to be in the debate has donald trump up by 20 points, 25 points. ted cruz in second place and there you have rubio tied for third place, possibly fourth place. can he then say hay a strong thursday place or strong fourth place finish in new hampshire? >> if past is prologue, over the

course of the next week you would see a collapse in the jeb bush numbers, collapse in the john kasich numbers. people in the republican party would collectively say this is really happening, donald trump just won, ted cruz just won, you would see a coalescing of support behind the establishment that is viewed as most likely to win. so that could well be marco rubio. particularly if he overperforms expectations tonight. one other point to what chuck was saying. we go through this every four years in iowa, what is dominant? whether it's the mechanics of the campaign or the messaging, the positioning and the momentum that matters most. when you look back at previous winners, whether it was john kerry and john edwards surging late from nowhere, not mentioned, either one of them, on a sunday show the week before the election in' 0 h 4-. whether it was mike huckabee, whether it was rick santorum, it's not the campaign that has the fanciest organization or

most mechanics or widgets or tools, it's always the campaign that wins in this state that has momentum and this is defined by its message and position and that bodes well for donald trump tonight. >> lightning in a bottle. >> he has one great asset, by the way, tonight, ben carson. if ben carson keeps that 10%, that keeps cruz from wing. cruz's folks are admitting they're sitting there -- they've been making these calls to carson, mike huckabee and rick santorum. collectively in that poll they're 14%. you add the 14% to the 23% of cruz and guess what? that's 37% on the evangelical side of the aisle. that's the exact number mike huckabee got in' 0 l. that's cruz's problem is that carson is still sitting at 10 grabbing just enough that might keep cruz from -- >> we have university of massachusetts lowell poll just out.

trump 38%, cruz 12%, bush okay sick 9% and christie 7%. >> so there is a poll where you have rubio -- where's snooub. >> rubio is at 8%. >> so in that poll -- so rubio's in fifth place in that poll. but, again, tom, iowa shapes what happens in new hampshire. >> it does. in this case donald trump is a unique player here, we've never seen anything quite like this, a guy who had never been in elected politics before comes in with all the trappings of celebrity with his own airplane able to say whatever he wants to true or false, doesn't make any difference. people like what he stands for. because they think he is going to take on the washington establishment. that's really what's in place, that washington is broken and this guy says he can fix it. >> so look at this same poll has bernie sanders at 61% and clinton at 30%. >> this is in new hampshire. >> in new hampshire.

>> that's his neighborhood. >> sanders up by 31%, trump up by 26% in new hampshire. >> i guess we should just go to south korea znchts i know. we'll bypass. i like new hampshire. i want to go. >> if trump wins big, we'll go straight to cleveland. i wanted to ask tom a question. i just heard people say this about ronald reagan doesn't matter whether he tells the truth or not. doesn't matter whether he says the greatest emitters of pollution are trees, it doesn't matter if he gets all of his information from readers digest, it doesn't matter that his aides were horrified. every time reagan went off to the bathroom they would make sure he didn't have a readers' digest with him because they said reagan would get something from reader's digest and say it on the campaign trail. tom, there are pa electricals between what people are saying about donald trump in 2016 and certainly what they said about

reagan in '76. >> well, beginning with star power by the way. ronald reagan and this part of the world especially, he worked in iowa but he lost here but when he went to new hampshire and they turned him around in that famous moment when he was debating george bush and said "i paid for the microphone, mr. breen." the difference between reagan and trump, in my judgment, is that reagan -- the mistakes were kind of benign. what we're talking about here with donald trump is that he's saying there were 20,000 muslims demonstrating in new jersey on the day 9/11 happened that was patently not true and everyone knew that at that point. >> but jerry ford said governor reagan can't start world war iii, president reagan can: he was fall it had fashionest gun in the west. i mean, reagan was vilified pretty roundly by even the republican establishment. >> the other thing about reagan was from the beginning when he was running for the republican nomination for governor of

california he was always congeni congenial. whatever he had to say, everybody had a kind of a he's our guy, friendly approach to him and he could do the every man thing better than anybody i'd ever seen. at the end of the recession, they had to do something so they sent him up to southie in boston, they sent him into a working man's bar, all irish southies and we thought he was going to get his head handed to him in there. 20 minutes later he emerges with a schooner of beer and all these guys around him cheering him because he could pull that off unlike anyone else. >> up like anyone else except maybe who we're talking about today. >> the same thing trump can do with evangelicals, for example, not his natural constituency, he misquotes the bible but evangelicals say he may not be pure evangelical but he'll stick up for people like us. >> david brodie made an interesting point on "meet the press," christian broadcasting

network's political reporter. he said there are two types of evangelical voters. there's cultural evangelicals and the folks that go -- and cruz, the more devoted evangelicals that go twice a week they're cruz people. the cultural evangelicals are the ones that are upset that their culture is -- has been attacked so they are gravitating toward trump because they are frustrated, angry, like what happened here? that's part of the evangelical vote trump is appealing to. >> i tell you what, steve, i got probably 80% of the evangelical vote every time i ran and every time i spoke in front of a church i said don't vote for me because i'm the best christian, i'm not. i'm the worstment vote for me because i'm going to fight for you. and they did. evangelicals -- and this is sometimes the media misses this. they were very pragmatic and

like everybody else, this is what i'm going to believe in, who will fight like hell for me? and right now a lot of them think it's trump. >> absolutely. for months and months and months the washington establishments were scratching their chins. he has no message. he has a very powerful message, make america great again. it's an optimistic message but he has three parts. first part is we used to be a great country but we're not anymore. this is what republican voters believe. they believe barack obama won, that he changed america, the that he wrecked america and we're at the last hour to be able to get the country back and he's tapped into the main vein of republican voters' emotions and passions and anxiety over the course of this election and the antipathy these republican voters have for the republican establishment in washington that they think is collaborationist, corrupt, complicit in the

wrecking of the country has been so underestimated in the acela corridor. >> before we let chuck todd go. as we talk about the evangelical vote. look at this sign outside of the church yesterday, "who will win the caucus is known only to god, and maybe chuck todd." >> and all the people said amen. >> that's pretty good! >> of course it's the lutherans. the lutherans are good people. good people. >> yeah, whatever. >> really wise. >> you paid them off. >> before we wrap up i want to say to the audience here and out there, two things, one is do not underestimate the power of social media and what's out of sight for us and how it can rally the troops for donald trump, for example. the other thing is, we here in the nfl playoffs. i want to be howie long on this panel, by the way. you can say all the thing you want but then the ball is kicked off and it happens on their

terms not on our terms. >> we will know very soon. >> this is going to be incredible. i've got to say for those of us and it's most of us here that this is like christmas eve. we have no idea what santa is bringing in the morning. >> for the first time in a long time we're flying bind. >> tom brokaw, chuck todd, steve schmidt. everyone's gotten self-aware over the past few months. still ahead on "morning joe," the winner of 2012's iowa caucuses, presidential candidate rick santorum. plus senator rand paul who says he's going to surprise people with tonight's results but first one of their rivals for the republican nomination, new jersey governor chris christie is here. >> this is big. >> the promise he's making to voters that he seems to think that not all candidates can keep. . >> we need to pick a commander-in-chief who will make us proud of the vote we made,

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[ applause ] >> all right, we have a big problem here. >> what's that? >> it as a problem. >> what's the problem? >> it's 25 past the hour -- >> what's the problem? >> republican presidential candidate governor chris christie of new jersey, mark halperin and steve rattner are back with us as well. the problem is chris christie says he's overrested. i'm out of here. he's like -- >> i'm overrested. >> we got another problem, mika? >> what? >> sam stein isn't around for chris christie to kick around anymore. >> give a wedgie to. >> he's the richard nixon of this show. >> he will ask a question "why is springsteen so great?" and you'll say "sam stein, that's a typically stupid

huffington post question." >> yeah, so. >> why are you that way? >> typically his questions are that. i notice you don't have him on the segment. >> he's overrested. >>s where he? >> he doesn't look overrested to me. >> you kick him around, too, joe. >> sam's a friend. i never kick him around. let's talk about what's happening today. >> yes, sir. >> how are things out there? you've invested more time in iowa than people expected. most people expected you to stay in new hampshire. why are you here? >> i'm here because i think it's important to be here. i've spent a lot of time here. i think we can do better than people expect here tonight we'll head back to new hampshire this afternoon. we deal two events in new hampshire tonight and we'll get on the road in new hampshire, too. >> would you prefer this to be a normal primary instead of a caucus? is a caucus an outdated way to count votes? >> i think the state should be able to decide what it is they want to do. i think you adjust to what they do so we're adjusting.

we have a lot of team branstad. i had a great event with governor branstad. another event this morning so he'll spend time with me. >> governor branstad has been critical of ted cruz. do you think it's dangerous for iowans to vote for ted cruz? >> i do certainly, yes. i think iowans should vote for me. i think it's dangerous for them to vote for anybody else, ted cruz, donald trump, marco rubio, carly fiorina. >> do you support ethanol? >> the rfs? yes, sir. >> do you think ted cruz's position on ethanol puts the state of iowa at economic disadvantage. >> sure does, that's what my friend governor branstad has told me and i believe them. >> okay. mika? >> what's your campaign finding about iowa and looking ahead to new hampshire that might reflect differently than what we're seeing in the polls? >> i don't think polling overall in the last couple of cycles has been extraordinarily accurate. so i was chairman of the rga in

2014, they told me no way sam brownback could be reelected in kansas, he was. no way paul lepage could be reelected in maine, he was. i think polling has become more and more difficult given how diverse it is, everybody gets their information, how you contact them, but what i'm feeling on the ground is that there's a lot of people who are undecided. i mean, our campaign on saturday hit 6,000 doors in new hampshire. the stats came back, 50% of the people said they're still undecided. >> wow, willie? >> governor, take us inside your war room, pull back the curtain a little bit. >> you don't want to see that. >> you may not win tonight in iowa. >> i think it's safe to say i won't. >> so then you move to new hampshire where you've invested a lot of time, you've done more town halls and appearances than anybody else. how does this shake out to you now if donald trump or ted cruz rolls out of iowa? what's your positioning? do you need to finish second in new hampshire to move forward? >> willie, we have always thought that what we want to be is the number one governor

coming out of these two races. if we beat jeb bush, john kasich, mike huckabee, that we're the number one governor left, that moves us on to the future races. so that's been our goal. it's less a number in the race, it's who we beat, whoa's behind us that matters most because that will help us consolidate money and all the rest. you're right, mika, it's a long chess game and i know whoever has a lot of time to talk on shows or whatever wants it to happen like this, it's not going to. i didn't say you, i said people. steve rattner. >> definitely ratner. >> it's a long chess game but i can't think of one time when polls with so solid across every state. how do you eventually stop him? >> everyday is a new day in a campaign and everyday a candidate is put under the microscope and as this field gets smaller, the microscope

gets larger and so if it were static things would end today. like if you say, okay, donald is ahead in these poshlgs okay, he wins iowa, everybody go home. that's the way lox of folks sound. >> let's put this umass poll up that just came back out. governor christie, i want you to look. donald trump way ahead, cruz in second place but looking at this, speaking of governors, bush, kasich, rubio, chris christie. you guys are all within the margin of error. the next four, the so-called establishment lane, it's tied. >> so that's why i'm saying this week coming up in new hampshire is going to be the week when someone will break out and you want to be the person that breaks out so we have a lot of things planned for new hampshire that we think will help us to break out and we also spent more time than anybody else so we think we have a better base than anyone else in new hampshire. so we're looking forward to it. when you think about it, you look at the "des moines register" poll, we're ahead of

jeb bush. he spent about 20 times the amount of money, 3450ib timmayb the amount of money. so we feel we'll connect with people emotionally, that will make the difference here and in new hampshire. >> the town hall you did in new hampshire recently a voter said to you "you need to start taking on donald trump." you said "i will at a place and time of my choosing." preview when you engage more with your friend donald trump, what's the contrast you want to voe voters between you and donald trump? >> the contrast that i make between myself and the senators. >> you want somebody who can actually do this job. you want somebody who has experience govern ago state, a complex difficult state who can bring that experience to bear in washington, d.c. everybody wants to burn washington down. i'm all for that, but someone has to rebuild it. >> his supporters know he's got no governing experience and don't seem to mind. in fact, a lot of them support it. when you have to make a contrast with him, will it just be that or issue positions? >> hell, mark, i won't tell you everything now, i gave you a

little taste. >> just a taste. >> just a taste. >> will you present yourself of all the people in the race besides donald trump as the most able to stop him if he heads out of iowa? does that fit you? >> listen, my style both politically and from a governing perspective gives people a sense of confidence that i can take on hillary clinton and if i can take on hillary clinton i can take on anybody else. >> so governor, are you going to be looking -- >> it's very loud back there. >> they're having coffee. they're overrested. >> so are you going to stay in the race so long as your first place as governor -- i never thought about that but it does make sense. at some point if people want somebody who's governed before. so if you here in first place in iowa as a governor, first place in new hampshire as a governor, you keep going? >> i'll stay in the race as long as i think i have a chance to win. i'm not one of the guys running for president as a vanity exercise.

i'm running because i want to be president. i'll stay in as long as i think i have a chance to win and if there comes a moment where i think i don't, i'm going home. i have four kids at home. two of whom i was talking to by skype last night and missed his hockey game and he won 5-1 and i'm happy to go home and do that. but as long as i believe i have a chance to be president of the united states i'll stay in and fight. i won't let anybody else determine that, i'll determine it. >> chris christie, thank you very much. good to see you. don't get any more rest, please. coming up, six-term governor of iowa terry branstad. >> my guy. >> he hasn't endorsed a candidate but it's pretty obvious who he's not supporting. he joins us in just a few moments on "morning joe." [ applause ]

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that's why i switched from u-verse to xfinity. now i can download my dvr recordings and take them anywhere. ready or not, here i come! (whispers) now hide-and-seek time can also be catch-up-on-my-shows time. here i come! can't find you anywhere! don't settle for u-verse. x1 from xfinity will change the way you experience tv. [ cheers and applause ] with us now, nbc news senior white house correspondent chris jansing. >> and barnicle and ratner back at the table. >> the legendary mike barnicle. >> legendary. [ cheers and applause ]

who loves barnicle? yeah, yeah. there's been in love lost, though, between candidates at the top of the republican polls. over the weekend, ted cruz went on the attack -- big surprise -- reducing his arguments against marco rubio and donald trump to single words. >> listen, we are drawing contrasts, both trump and marco are attacking me, they're attacking me with all their might and we're drawing contrasts and the contrasts are clear and the contrasts are substantive and policy based. a vote for marco rubio is a vote for amnesty. and a vote for donald trump is a vote for obamacare. >> look, ted cruz is a total liar. i am so against obamacare. i've been saying it for two years in my speeches. i'm going to repeal and replace obamacare. i don't even know where he get this is. he's a liar. >> but you have said that you want everyone to be covered on health care and the government is going to pay for it. how is that not obamacare? >> that's true. i want people taken care of. i have a heart. i want people taken care of.

if people have no money, we have to help people. but that doesn't mean single payer. it means we have to help people. if somebody has no money and they're lying in the middle of the street and they're dying, i'm going to take care of that person and try to get them back to health. >> how do you do that? >> we're going to work with our hospitals. we're going to work with our doctors. we have to do something. you can't have a small percentage of our economy because they're down and out have no protection so they end up dying from what you could have a simple procedure or even a pill, you can't do that. we'll work something out. that doesn't mean single payer. and i mean maybe he's got no heart and if this means i lose an election, that's fine, because, frankly, we have to take care of the people in our country. we can't let them die on the sidewalks of new york or the sidewalks of iowa or anywhere else. >> and, by the way, steve rattn rattner, the questioning -- well, first of all, the charge was idiotic. it was a stupid charge, trying

to strip things down to the lowest common denominator. it's stupid. marco rubio equals amnesty and trump equals obamacare. crazy. but secondly, there is already a law. what donald trump is talking about is already the law of the land and was before obamacare. hospitals have to take people in their emergency rooms. and that's one of these arguments that, oh, health care for all. nobody lies on the sidewalks dying. hospitals are required to take them in. and the real question has always been how do we do it most efficiently and how do we make sure that single moms with their kids, indigents, aren't using the emergency room as their primary care provider. >> right. but what cruz is saying, i think, is a point. cruz has a specific point of view which is that government should get out of the obamacare business, presumably keep medicare and medicaid and whatever but beyond that go back to what you're saying which is let people find their way to

emergency rooms. >> trump who has vacillated between the idea of a single payer system which is medicare on steroids and what he was saying here which is we've got to do something to help people does seem to be leaning in more of a muscular role for government than what cruz is advocating. so there is a substantive policy difference between these guys. >> there is a great argument also and i said it through the entire obamacare debate to figure out since everybody is getting health care right now but it's extraordinarily inefficient because emergency rooms charge, like, 100 times the amount that regular providers would charge, there's a better what toy do this. but talking about ted cruz stripping it all down to marco rubio equals amnesty, donald trump equals obamacare. are iowa voters going to buy that? >> they're not the ones that i'm talking to. and what's been fascinating to me as i've been going to different campaigns -- mostly on the republican side and talking to people -- a guy said to me yesterday i'm not looking for ideological tag lines, i'm

looking for real-world answers to real-world problems. and when you go and talk to the voters, they don't go out there for their health except maybe a few of them twoobt go out to see donald trump, you can see the star-struck nature of it. there are women who come up to me and hold my hand and they're so excited that they've seen him in person. but when you go to a rubio event or a cruz event or any of the other events you go to, people are talking to me about very specific things. let me give you one quick example which is that a man was saying he's going to go to caucus because he and his wife are entrepreneurs who moved here two years ago and they really are having trouble getting their business up and going so you think it would be about taxes or regulation. you know what it was about? child care. he said "my wife can't get away to work on her business because we can't afford child care. and so they were suddenly leaning the other way. >> and i sense, mark, these ideological tag lines aren't working in 2016 ever.

republican voters have heard it for 30 years and don't believe it anymore. >> i think the negative ads are not breaking through, there's just too many of them and in presidential politics campaigning matters. you go back to cruz and trump are saying exactly the same thing now as they were saying all campaign. i think that works to their advantage. >> chris, stay with us, if you can. up next on "morning joe," she went to washington on a mission to make them squeal. republican senator joni ernst joins with us her thoughts on a republican party trying to work out some major differences right now. "morning joe" is coming right back. [ applause ]

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what am i going to do? i'm not going to change my name. >> we're back live at java joes in des moines, iowa. that was jeb bush talking about his establishment bona fides. now member of the arms services committee and freshman senator joni ernst. she's stuck by her pledge not to offer an endorsement in the gop race and also with us senior white house correspondent chris jansing. thanks for being on. >> thank you. >> let's talk about what's going on with the party. because something seems to be a bit upside down. how would you describe it? >> well, we have so many great candidates out there and everybody is excited. look at the crowds coming out on caucus day. we have similar positions but enough nuances out there that it's bringing in new and exciting voters. >> we sat down with most of the candidates and it's an

impressive field. >> it is. j. >> we just showed jeb coming in. we interviewed five or six candidates, i've known jeb for a long time and he sat there and it was extraordinary his grasp not only of domestic issues and education reform but foreign policy. i would say by and far he's light years ahead of most of the other candidates. why isn't jeb connecting as much in iowa and new hampshire? >> well, in iowa the voters want to get to know a person, they want to see that likability factor, too. iowa nice. but the policies behind the candidate are so important and that's what i'm encouraging iowa voters. look at the policies behind each of the candidates. >> there anything about jeb's policies that hasn't quite connected with iowa? >> that has been a bit of that. getting to know those voters. we have candidates that have

provocative talk. >> you mean flying a 757 and saying "i'm great" and flying home. >> that's provocative sexy talk out there that will excite voters but i want people to delve into the policies and take a look at it. >> chris jansing, i'm curious you think how many people are undecided truly or could turn? i know one of the people you introduced, you haven't endorsed anybody but you were at a marco rubio rally and when i was at a couple of his rallies a lot of people there were like "convince me." but it was reflective of what we saw in the "des moines register" poll which is that more than half of the people who say they support him could maybe go the other way. where do you see it with marco rubio and sort of the entire field in terms of how fluid it is right now. >> that is an interesting point. i've been out and about all over and ran into a couple gentlemen and i said do you mind if i ask

who you're caucusing for? one gentleman decided on rubio, the other one was very split. he had not decided and the two candidates that he was supporting, they're very different candidates and he said, i really won't know until i go to the caucuses tonight. >> senator, who do you plan to caucus for? >> i am not going to state. that will be private. yes, i have a lot of favorites in this race, of course, i have a number of callings -- >> you already know who you are going to caucus for? >> i know who i will be supporting but even amongst my family we are split all over the place. >> which of donald trump's policy proposals do you find interesting? >> well, that's a good question because i haven't seen policy behind the candidate that i would like to see. he has tax proposal out there, he had -- but things that are important to iowans, they want to know about economy and they want to know about national security. i want to know more about national security and i haven't

heard specifics here. >> you said earlier it's important to people in iowa to get to know the candidate and to get to know their policies and you just said you don't feel like you understand trump's policies and we also know that trump has spent less time in this state i think than any of the other ten major candidates. how do you account for how well he's doing in the polls? >> i think people are so angry, they are frustrated -- >> but you have an approval rate of under 4%. >> what are they angry and frustrated about? >> they don't feel like they are being heard. if you look at national defense it's a mixed bag out there. people are just upset. they think the government should move a lot faster than it does and i do feel that frustration as well. we'll see if that translates into votes tonight. >> senator, would you be disappointed if donald trump won tonight, dis a monthed in what that says about the iowa caucus and the iowa voters? >> no, i won't be disappointed because i think the iowa folks they understand that this is a stepping point, there are a

number of other states yet to go, but they are going to express how they feel in that vote tonight and they have every right to express their vote in whatever manner they choose. they're going to get out there tonight, they're going to caucus and let's see how it turns out. >> senator joan gee ernst, well played. >> thank you. >> thank you very much for being on. nbc's chris jansing, that was a fine line. thank you, chris, as well. >> still ahead, hillary clinton has the support of a former senator who beat her husband in the iowa caucuses more than 20 years ago. former senator tom harkin joins us on the set straight ahead on "morning joe." ♪ hi mom! hi! every mom is a coach... an artist... sometimes even a zoologist. every mom is a working mom... and it's working moms everywhere who inspired us to work harder. so we made our banquet meals even better.

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all right. coming up next presidential contenders, rick santorum and rand paul. where do they need to finish tonight to book a ticket to new hampshire. up next we pack the political round table, andrea mitchell, robert costa, hallie jackson and -- oh, my gosh. >> american goth i can. >> straight ahead on "morning joe." we will be right back. you can't predict... the market. but at t. rowe price, we can help guide your investments through good times and bad. for over 75 years,

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♪ do we have any like young kids here, like ten years old? okay. let's do this, i have a little bit of an idea. we will have -- look at that handsome guy. i have -- why don't we put them over here and we will let them -- but without their parents we will let them run through the plane. does that sound good? we will let the kids go run through the plane. i don't want the parents running through because the parents will damage it, right? >> welcome back to "morning joe." >> bob costa said it best. he said it's willy wonka in iowa.

>> donald trump doing a fly buy to the sound track of air force one before you saw him inviting the kids on board. that's when i just -- i was getting the groceries out in my kitchen, turned the tv on and i was like, wow, just turned it off. i was like here he goes. welcome back to "morning joe," it is monday, february 1st, caucus day in iowa. we are live from java joes. you were clear last night for joe's band. >> it was a good show. >> the joint was rocking. >> david bowie covers, glenn frey. you got it. >> it was a good time here. half the members of the aupd yens behind us were also here last night. they are hard core. the host of msnbc's hard ball chris matthews is with us, host of andrea mitchell reports, andrea mitchell, nbc news correspondent hallie jackson, political reporter for the washington post and msnbc political analyst robert costa. >> this is like the 27 yankees here.

there are no questions to ask, i just want to hear what people are thinking. >> we have a new poll just out. >> new poll first. >> the quinnipiac poll for iowa, talking about where we are has donald trump in the lead, donald trump 31, ted cruz 24, marco rubio 17, ben carson at 8, no other candidate is above 4%. >> so, chris matthews -- >> when do they leave the field? was that yesterday? >> find out when they left the field. >> the other one was friday. the one we keep living on is friday. >> what was interesting we also had a new hampshire poll that was in the field after trump didn't do the debate and his numbers exploded up. >> i know. i'm worried about that. >> let's see about the q poll. let us know when they were in the field. chris, what are you looking at today? >> well, i guess it's the -- the manifest excitement of the trump people, it's clear and obvious. the people like it, they enjoy going to these events -- let me just backtrack. two candidates have done the same thing in different ways to

different degrees. focus and joy. >> yeah. >> focus and joy. and i think trump has the best example. when you go to his rally you know what he's out to, make america great again, one of the best not toes i have ever heard in politics, much better than send them a message. this is a good one, make america great again. number two, people are happy with this guy. he makes us happy. when you come home you feel good, you may want a president who makes you feel good. i could do the neg testified. >> we're showing the q poll, it was in the field through yesterday. that's big news. >> you look at the history of these caucuses, guys, one fifth of the voters decided in the last day or two. >> andrea mitchell, chris matthews said a word that is so important, joy. >> joy. >> ronald reagan a lot of people said he is a fascist, a right winger, gerald ford says governor reagan can't start

world war 3, president reagan can, and they missed the joy in reagan's message because it was so combative. i wonder if the same thing isn't happening for donald trump right now. >> it could be. i covered reagan and watched it happen and what you're seeing here is showmanship, it's a circus, but there is a connection there. he is connecting to people and really entertaining. now, the big question i have is whether the evangelical thing, which he has co opted, but whether ted cruz can make that work, can bring in the carson people who can see that ben carson is not going to be a viable candidate anymore and if those people go over that could make the margin, but it was a five-point poll, the "des moines register" poll and this is a bigger spread and the quinnipiac was in the field later. that's a trend. >> it's a big spread and also you say focus and joy, chris. hallie, i would say message and joy. on both sides of the aisle. i have bernie sanders with a clear message and lots of joy

and then donald trump with a brand, make america great again, that is a message, and tons of joy. >> and i think that you're seeing some candidates try to shift now a little bit in their tone to what donald trump has been doing. you look at what ted cruz has been doing on the campaign trail, he is noticeably more optimistic, noticeably backed off those unprompted attacks against people like trump, people like -- >> he's so grim. i mean, that guy -- she found the guy who was -- >> cruz. >> cruz's, happiness, where is it? you had the guy who looked like the former head of ibm, he had that look. is there any happiness here in this look? >> people are excited about him. you go to these cruz events, these are true believers, these are people who really truly -- >> do they like him? they don't like him, though. >> they don't care about any issue at the might have with his personality, they care about where he is on the issues. here is the big part of it, a little new reporting here, you talk about needing to get out the vote. the campaign day by day tracks

whether supporters of different candidates know where they're going to go to caucus. the cruz campaign i'm told has more supporters that know where they've got to go man rubio or than trump in that order and it far exceeds them. >> that's probably true. >> bob, you have been on the ground following this a very long time as well. right now it all comes down to turn out. we see the polls, they are all going the same direction, it looks like trump by 5 or 6 and then next you've got cruz and rubio further behind. what are you hearing on the ground as far as turn out operations for the top three? >> i think hallie is right. cruz has the better organization on the ground, but trump has the enthusiasm and if trump can bring out the new voters he likely wins here today. if those trump voters stay home he doesn't. the other thing i called around the campaigns last night, this is the first inning, everyone trying to play up iowa as this huge thing and it is today, but this is a 50-state contest, i don't care win or lose you talk to the cruz people they're going into south carolina, they're staying in through the south.

this is going to be a long race. it's not just iowa, it's the first inning. >> and like bernie sanders he's got money. that is the other message. sanders on the other side has so much money he can keep going. >> what's better for cruz than right here? >> primary states potentially. >> that was always his buffer. >> i don't buy this theory the south -- >> the south, it's trump country. it just is. let me tell you something somebody that ran as a serve testify populous, it's trump country. ted cruz is not going to play in alabama, mississippi and georgia the way he can play in iowa. he's just not. and by the way, i say that as a guy who has lived in mississippi, alabama and georgia and northwest florida. he is just not. cruz, i will say t he's got to win here. just like bernie has to win here and if they don't, andrea, it is a steep climb moving forward. >> it is. for bernie sanders -- >> even with all the money. >> the big difference is with bernie sanders he has new hampshire in his pocket.

>> right. >> ted cruz doesn't, obviously. if sanders wins here and new hampshire that's a real blow psychological, you know, blow, to her and the party is going to start getting really nervous, they're already having a nervous breakdown over how well sanders has done. >> joe biden and john kerry will be getting a lot of phone calls. >> on this friday night there was another drip in the on going flood of the hillary clinton e-mail saga, the releases. this time the state department declared 22 of the e-mails top secret and won't be released -- that won't be released. hillary clinton calls for the e-mails' release, while bernie sanders indicated that maybe not everybody is sick of hearing about her e-mails after all. >> there is no classified marked information on those e-mails sent or received by me. dianne feinstein the ranking member of the intelligence committee who has had a chance to review them has said that

this e-mail chain did not originate with me and there were no classification markings. i do want them released. >> your supporters including tom vilsack former governor of iowa and senator feinstein have suggested it's political. is that what you think? >> well, i'm going to leave that to others who are quite experienced in the ways of washington to comment on. i just have to point out that the timing and some of the leaks that have led up to it are concerning. this is very much like benghazi, george. you know, republicans are going to continue to use t beat up on me. i understand that. that's the way they are. but after 11 hours of testimony answering every single question in public, which i had requested for many months, i think it's pretty clear they're grasping at straws. >> you heard what secretary clinton had to say about other democrats who were concerned that you as a democratic socialist will get slapped with that label and not be able to win in a general election. >> in terms of what people are

going to get slapped with, look at front pages in terms of what secretary clinton is getting slapped with. >> what is it? >> you know as well as i do, it has to do with e-mails. but what is more important is that our campaign is generating an enormous amount of excitement. >> are you now saying that that is an issue in november, that this is going to harm her electability? >> well, i think, you know, what you just said is true, republicans are talking about it. what i have said is that there is a legal process under way right now and i'm not going to politicize that issue. i am not attacking hillary clinton on that issue. i stand by what i said in the first debate. >> all right. so the poll that we were talking about, quinnipiac has bernie up 3, 49-46. >> also out in the field until last night. so andrea, hillary clinton says it's just like benghazi. it's obviously not like benghazi. there are investigations going on, the state department their investigation is going on, obviously at the fbi and what

mark halperin and i found so interesting is friday morning -- i will just say, chris e-mailed me and chris was at "morning joe" now he is over at cbs and he said when do we start talking about all the chatter we're hearing from inside the administration about the investigation? i said, well, let's see. and i talked about it on the air. we talked about what we've all heard inside washington about this investigation being further along than expected. what was interesting we got no push back. and then of course this big news dropped later in the day. what can you tell us? >> first of all, bernie sanders a complete switch, he has walked back from that october -- >> now it matters. >> i'm not going to politicize t but he's talking about it. what's happening with the fbi probe i think none of us know for sure, you're hearing a lot of stuff. they are looking at the security of the server, they're looking at aids because these were e-mails sent to her for the most part. the ones that were top secret

were sent to her do not originate from her. >> but were there interactions? >> so the question is the interactions. exactly. let's say they're forwarding an ap or "new york times" story about the top secret drone program in pakistan. >> right. >> so that is public source, but then the question is what did she say or what did someone when they forwarded to her say. it's those comments when they were forwarded that are the critical issue. and that's the vulnerability. honestly from my sources and they go pretty high up including -- including some of the people who are doing the review for the -- inside the intelligence community, i don't think there is the legal culpability here. i don't think there is going to be what has been widely reported. for a bunch of reasons. you have to prove intent, you have to prove motive. i mean, you are a lawyer. >> you actually don't. whoever is telling you that -- whoever is telling you that is

not telling you what the statute actually says. the statute also says that if you were reckless in the use of classified -- use of information, then that also is an offense. >> but here is the problem with that. the statute says if you're reckless. take a look at what happened at the state department last june, they shut down the state department computer system for more than a month because it had been hacked. >> right. >> the official system. >> right. >> 22 million people who worked for the government or used to work for the government were hacked. >> but that would only mean that somebody who had a server in chappaqua would be even more vulnerable. is this their defense? >> their defense could well be the whole system -- the whole damn system -- >> good luck with the justice department on that. >> i have a home brewed server in chappaqua but the state department's is really bad, too. >> joe, the point is this is a tough case to bring against a

former secretary of state who is in the middle of a political campaign. >> right. >> they are going to have to think long and hard about whether they can win that case. you can go to a grand jury and indict anybody, you both know that, but whether they can win that case and take the heat for that, i'm just saying there is a lot of conversation going on. >> when all the information is out obviously the good news here is, chris, that the fbi director, whether you talk to republicans or you talk to democrats, they say he is a straight shooter. >> i think he is. >> that's why we really until this news broke we just stopped talk being it on our show because it's simple, if the fbi inn diets, it's a story. if they don't indict, it's not a story. >> it's middle ground and that's a special prosecutor if you name one of them it just kills her because it doesn't end. >> it's going to drag on through the whole general election campaign. >> but they are not going to appoint a special prosecutor, are they? >> i don't know. they're going to try to keep their hands clean of any kind of

political manipulation. they're very scared i think of any sign that they're favoring her so they might lean the other way. this kind of stuff happening. i think politically you can figure it out. >> is this going to hang over her like the cruz -- >> everything is useful now. i think the big story was with bernie there just to get the day story. >> yeah. >> bernie made a big mistake saying enough about the e-mails, the damn e-mails, because the minute he said that he told people like us here he is not running for president. he's running as a protest candidate. he's not really running to win. you run to win. >> right. >> remember how he -- >> actually the staff later said he botched the line. >> he said that within 24 hours. >> you don't -- >> and he botched the line. >> i want to ask robert and hallie about the sketchy cruz flier. >> oh, my god. >> what's going on here?

>> where did cruz is actually -- it looks very official and they say voting violation. of course, which if we got that -- >> some people were bothered by it. >> i'm sorry, whose name? >> it has your neighbors, it says your neighbors have voted and you haven't. >> that's creepy. >> social pressure. it's the social pressure mailer. marco rubio, for example, has sent out a similar social pressure mailer that looked a lot different that had a very different tone. the cruz campaign says, listen, this is a common practice, this is what happens, it happened in 2014 and it helps get republicans elected so they don't feel like they're doing anything out of the ordinary. >> you look at marco's and it doesn't look like an official document. let's put cruz's back up there again. this looks like -- that's marco's which does not look like an official document. >> cartoon. >> i'm sorry. that looks like an official document. i don't know if that is illegal, but it certainly seem improper.

>> the secretary of state slapped cruz on the wrist for it and gave them a scolding. the cruz campaign said why are these state officials getting involved in the official and saying something like this 24 hours out from the caucus. >> because they're putting those out 24 hours before the caucus to try to scare voters and make them actually believe they have violated state law. >> whether you love or hate the mailer it tells you a lot about the cruz campaign. this is a very aggressive get out the vote campaign. they're doing peer pressure, they've targeted their voters, rafael is doing the same with pastors. if this campaign is won it's because of mailers like that. they're doing everything in the playbook to get out their vote. >> are there any surprising, could rand paul -- >> no, that liberty vote seemed to have migrated toward cruz. the real thing you have to watch is trump in eastern iowa and the suburbs and college campuses and

western towns were cruz strong holds does he bring out a whole new coalition and it's much more than the usual 120,000. we're talking maybe 200,000 voters. if trump gets to that level he probably wins here. >> what clinton people will do, they will use the obama playbook against sanders. so they are going to move people to o'malley if they think it will take delegates away from sanders. >> forgive me, chris, for bringing up my campaign, that's sort of my point of reference, again, talking about the populous, the conservative populous, i heard steve kornacki last night showing where trump is doing really well in western iowa where you wouldn't expect t i campaigned around the places where people -- like in my neighborhoods and i expected to win there. when the results came in places like myrtle grove where i never campaigned would be like 85% for me while i was polling 55 -- i was like where is myrtle grove again? did we go to this a play place

or that place? >> you did better where you didn't go? >> exactly. i did better in the western iowa portions of my district and i just wonder if we see something that swoo epps this place, kornacki was talking about donald trump doing well in western iowa where you woontd expect. if that happens katie bar the door. >> i think a lot of people -- if you don't like trump, if you are a progressive, the new word for liberal, if you don't like trump you say it right away. you ask a woman what do you think of trump? >> he's awful, disgusting, racist, all this stuff, but there is a lot of trump people that are secretly for trump i'm convinced. i was talking to a senator the other day, on both sides of the aisle they are secretly rooting for this guy. they will never tell you that, but there's no secret anti-trump. >> right. >> they drag about how much they don't like the guy and -- by the way, i want to say something about this cruz mailer. we all get this kind of mail, you get important tax

information. >> right. >> or something about your life insurance has been overrun, you didn't pay it. it turns out to be just crap. you rip it up and put it in the trash can. if you're 85 years old, your husband is 84 years old and you get a letter, dear, i just got this letter, this letter says that we've been bad voters and we are in big trouble. like the one they used to send about social security, the jimmy roosevelt crowd, and you think it's real. remember that question does he care about people like you, i would say this about people that put that mailer out, yeah, they care about you and how they can scare you. they don't care about your feelings, your nervousness, your life. >> we've got to go to break. i want predictions. republican and democrat. >> i think cruz is going to do better than people think and so will rubio. >> tight, tight, tight both sides, both parties. >> tight both parties. >> those were definitive answer

answers. >> i think what hallie said was that trump will do worse and cruz better. >> dares go first. >> i think trump will do better than a lot of people are expecting. >> who is going to win? >> i think trump. >> trump. how about the other side? >> other side. >> i don't know. i really don't know. >> i think that's going to be tight and i'm only saying that because hillary underperformed so badly here eight years ago. >> but they always pull through. >> if i had to bet i would bet bernie by just a little bit only because hillary underperforms so badly here eight years ago. >> i'm going to say there are going to be protests on the democratic side. you will have a legal challenge. >> a legal challenge, it's going to be that close? >> chris. >> that's a prediction. >> i think you're right. >> you think what? >> i just want this to run in the newspapers, i think joe -- i do think there's something going on here. i think biden is waiting. >> i do, too. >> i think kerry probably wishes

he was more positioned although he loves his job. i think mitt romney still waiting. i think there is a lot of people out there saying what the hell is going on? this is crazy. but i do think there's something really powerful to learn from the trump thing. really powerful. besides the big tree and that stuff we don't like, there's something in there about american citizenship and the pride americans have in being americans and that that has not been fully recognized. they don't talk about gut patriotism and people feel there's something missing there. >> and want our kids to be better. >> we have to go. you're saying trump and bernie by a hair? is that what you're saying? you say you agree with me. >> i agree with the first part. i think -- i think hillary has a lot of spine behind her people. >> i know. i can't tell. >> we sure hear that here. a lot of loud hillary supporters. >> hallie jackson, robert costa,

thank you. >> hill friday and trump. >> rick santorum and senator rand paul and governor terry branstad all here on "morning joe." up next, one of hillary clinton's top supporters in iowa, former senator tom harkin joins the set here at java joes. but first bill karins with a check on what's approaching, this blizzard here in iowa. come on. >> des moines is looking better, but other areas of the state are looking worse. blizzard warnings mason city, fort dodge, spencer sioux city. you can draw a line from des moin moines, cedar rapids, areas north will get this major winter storm, to the south mostly rain and wet conditions. the snowfall forecast very high. this is a big storm for iowa, council bluffs a foot of snow, sioux city 8 to 12 inches, in the northern half of the state 8 to 12, south of des moines probably won't see much, but des moines right around 4 to 8 inches. the timing is important with everyone going to the caucus,

doors shut at 7:00 p.m. this evening. 7:00 cloudy skies, not dealing with any ice or snow it then. during the cauclcus a little lit snow, surface temperatures in the low 30s so the roads should be okay. it's not until we get into the overnight hours that we get into the heavy snow and tomorrow morning when everyone is waking up that's when we will have blizzard conditions, a lot of closed schools maybe businesses, too. the northern half of iowa will be the worse. as far as turnout, no excuses for the weather. looks like the snow and rain will hold out until everyone is back home. you're watching "morning joe." tomorrow i think you will be covered in snow. we will be right back.

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i want you to understand why i'm fighting so hard for the affordable care act. i don't want it repealed. i don't want us to be thrown

back into a terrible, terrible national debate. i don't want us to end up in gridlock. people can't wait. people who have health emergencies can't wait for us to have some theoretical debate about some better idea that will never ever come to pass. >> what secretary clinton has implied throughout this campaign or last month or two that somehow i who have spend my life fighting for universal healthcare to guarantee healthcare to every man, woman and child somehow i'm going to dismantle the healthcare system and leave millions of children without healthcare or elderly people without healthcare. that is absolutely an outrageous and incorrect statement. of course that will never happen. our vision so to move forward to guarantee healthcare to every man, woman and child in a cost effective way. >> it is 28 past the hour. joining us now at java joes former u.s. senator of iowa and

winner of the 1992 iowa caucuses, he knows a thing or two about this place. >> he knows a lot. >> democrat tom harkin who endorsed hillary clinton for president. nbc news white house cross poend ent kristen welker also for us, nicolle wallace and former mccain strategist steve is that myth. wow. >> senator, you know the state extraordinarily well. we could talk about what's happening on the republican side with trump and all the people showing up, but talk about on the democratic side, you're supporting hillary, a lot of people, though, coming out for bernie sanders. can you talk about the unrest generally in the voting population and what you think it is. >> well, that's present in both parties. >> right. >> it's all over and i think people are anxious obviously, the middle class is deteriorating in our country and i think both sides are talking about that, how to approach this anxiety of the middle class whose wages have stagnated and

they are not getting ahead and they are afraid their kids won't have as good a life as they have and right now they're probably true. candidates have tapped into this. i have been to a lot of caucuses in this state, not just the one in '92, and the best organized thus far was obama's in '08. hillary is better organized than obama was in '08. >> really? >> we have 1,681 precincts in iowa, obama had about 1,200 of them organized, hillary was a precinct captain in every one of the 1,681 pre sikts in iowa and they're trained. >> seems like the candidate who seems to be flourishing with crowds and even poll numbers are candidates with a very clear message. what's hillary clinton's message, 20 seconds or less? >> her message is i'm qualified to serve, i know how the government operates, i can work with republicans across the aisle to get things done because i have done that in the past and i will do that in the future to

protect the middle class. >> i think the other part of her message is that she's going to build on the obama legacy and we have heard her really hone in on that message, which i think resonates in a state like iowa where the president is very popular still particularly among democrats. you talk about her ground game, i visited one of her campaign offices yesterday, they have all of this new technology in addition to what senator hashing kin is talking about including a caucus night cal clarity that will help precincts tap late who is going to support them and gives them suggestions for how to woo people over to her side >> on the republican sides is your father going to be happy tonight? >> where are we? >> here is where my brain gets tied in a knot. i accept this analysis about ground game, i saw some of the cruz folks yesterday, they are zen because of their supreme confidence in their ground game, but you can't bet against the movement guys. >> nicolle, you told me something about running for

president that i will never forget. you said, do you know what, you probably need to raise more money in big states running for senator up front than running for president. you said running for president in a place like iowa, it's lightning in a bottle. >> right. and i just -- i completely accept all the analysis, you guys have been here, we have all heard the same things by now, the ground game that hillary has put together is second to none. on the republican side that's the cruz campaign, but i just in my gut you cannot bet against the guys who are leading movements and that to me is sanders and trump. >> back in 2008 i fell the story all the time mitt romney had this massive operation on the hill, 2008, everybody was on the phone, everybody was calling up, you went back and talked to the important guys in the back and they were all huddled around computers. >> he was one of those important guys. >> and then you go to mike huckabee's place, he literally had nobody. he had a 17-year-old kid outside of his bus. that was it.

and he won. >> every time we sit here every four years, you talk about iowa, this person has the best machine, the most organization, they're going to be the winner. it's always momentum. it's a state that breaks ways. if you are back on the democratic side since 2004, sunday shows before the caucuses the james john kerry, john edwards weren't mentioned. >> you had that magnificent movement, i think it was dale sandusky who john kerry had pulled out of the river on his offensive boat, saved his life, hadn't seen each other since the vietnam war, john kerry sees him in the crowd, it was this electric moment in the state of iowa and he surges into the lead and always in this state it's momentum and the candidate that has the message, it's the candidate that has the passion, the candidate that has the right position for the moment i think that ultimately emerges. >> senator harkin, any predictions tonight? >> how do you think i would

predict. >> please. >> it's a softball. >> on the republican side? >> i don't know. the question is all these people coming out for trump, are they coming out for the entertainment value or are they dedicated in going to the caucuses for trump. cruz probably has the best organizational basis in the state of iowa. on the republican side i think the real -- the real winner or who is going to be talked about is who comes in third. >> okay. >> on the democratic side hillary with win the most delegates. i have no doubt about it. >> tom harkin, kristen welker, steve schmidt, nicolle wallace, thank you so much. coming up, iowa governor terry branstad joins us here at java joes, plus republican presidential candidate rick santorum. we will be right back with much more "morning joe." all the log. feels like a bmw. reminds me a little bit of like an audi. so, this car supports apple carplay. siri, open maps.

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current republican governor and the longest serving governor in u.s. history. >> hello. zoo governor branstad. also with us republican presidential candidate and winner of the last iowa caucus former senator rick santorum. good to see you, guys. >> very good to have you on board. so, senator, you won last time, nobody was expecting it, are you going to surprise people tonight? >> i don't have any question we will surprise people tonight.

i don't know we will be able to climb to the top but i think we will climb into the race and finish above the pack and in the mix. you know, people will look for an alternative to a serve testify who frankly should win this state by a lot. >> you're talking about ted cruz now. >> a serve testify who had everybody, all the conservative organizations in the country, all the conservative organizations, all the talk radio folks, everybody lining up behind him, all the money in the world, had thousands of people here. >> that's confidence. >> this should be a lay down -- >> you're saying if ted cruz doesn't win here he leaves the state hurt. >> and i think conservatives need to look for and a alternative and i want to be that alternative. >> governor, what kind of surprise could iowa serve up tonight, do you think? >> as rick pointed out, iowa a lot of times will surprise people and it all depends upon who turns out tonight and who has the momentum at the end. i think we will have a record turnout, we have more candidates than we have ever had, the size for the crowds for the candidates has been great. then you add the trump

phenomenon which is like nothing we have ever seen before, i think we are going to have a record breaking turnout. >> governor, the day that you made your promise about senator cruz same morning after sarah palin, we talked for three hours about how your comments were the bigger political earthquake. >> we didn't talk about sarah palin because your comments about ted cruz hurting the economy seemed to be the big news of the day. this weekend ted cruz said you are wrong, he said his approach actually will create for jobs for iowa. >> we have 43 ethanol plants and important to the ethanol plants is access and the rfs is key to having access to the distribution system and his approach would eliminate that. he co-sponsored a bill to eliminate the rfs. rick santorum voted for the rfs. >> that's right. >> we need people that support jobs in iowa, farm income. he also is against the wind

energy tax credit. nearly 30% of our energy is now electrical energy comes from wind. >> how did he get so far in this state? >> he's got all those conservative endorsements and whatever, but people didn't know his stand on issues that are economically important to this state like jobs and farm income. i think that is -- people are starting to think about that and say there are a lot of other good conservatives alternatives. >> yes, there are, governor. i'd point that out here. >> hello. yeah. >> let me ask you this: you have had a long standing connection with the evangelical community here in iowa and elsewhere. right now donald trump nationally and in iowa has been a strong support among evangelicals, is that warranted and if not how do you explain the fact that so many vooemgs seem to like trump? >> i think there are a lot of folks who are angry and want someone who is strong and tough and can stand up to you guys and

stand up to all the folks that have been promising things that haven't been delivering and he has been selling it, he says he's pro life now, he says -- he lines up with conservative -- and evangelicals and i think people are willing to at least for now at least on the polls -- i'm hoping the people of iowa -- >> do you doubt his evangelical credentials? do you doubt his sincerity about his christianity? >> one of the things -- >> can i just say this, like it says in 2 corinthians -- >> oh e now -- >> all i can say is that i accept anybody who comes to positions that i hold and i'm not going to criticize someone for moving in my direction. i said that four years ago, i said that mr. mitt romney, i will say the same things about donald trump, but usually past is prologue. >> rick santorum, thank you. >> any predictions? >> well, my prediction is a record turnout and that's great for iowa. >> all right. >> a record turnout would also

be pretty good for donald trump. >> and bernie. >> and bernie. >> well, the iowa poll is usually pretty accurate. i want to give ann seltzer some credit. in my race, in joni ernst last time, in the presidential rate before she has been pretty well -- >> she's only missed it one time since 1988, it was rick santorum. governor, thank you so much. great honor to have you here. >> thank you very much for both of you. >> rick, senator, good luck tonight. senator rand paul says the polling may be overlooking a big portion of his supporters, the presidential candidate is here to explain next on "morning joe." we will be right back.

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somebody doing much better i think it's you. i think you've talked about it, your supporters don't seem to be as represented in the polls as others. >> one of the interesting thing is when you look at the polls sometimes there is nobody under 30 in the poll, often there are very few people under 40 in the poll, but typically in the caucus about a third of the voters in the caucus are under 40 and yet they are not showing up in any of the polls. >> you had an event last night 1,500 people at it. >> 1,500 people at the university of iowa, great crowd, a lot of enthusiasm. we have 100 young men and women every day for the last three or four weeks making phone calls. they have made a million known calls in iowa. >> so how do you think you will come out of this? you're not expecting to win i assume. >> i don't know why not. i have never lost a race. i've never lost a race before. >> you've talked about the polls but the "des moines register" poll hasn't been wrong since, what, 1988 or something like that. >> there's always a first. i think the polls are becoming

increasingly erratic, because it's much more difficult to get people on the phone, even the pollsters will tell you that, it's hard to find people on the phone, hard to find young people, hard to get the spread that you need for the dem graphic. i think the polls are way off. in kentucky about a month or two ago we had a governor's race, every poll said the democrat would win by 5 and the -- >> everyone was wrong. john heilemann. >> 13, 14 points in a two-person race i think there's a good chance we will see a lot of surprises tonight. >> [ inaudible ] -- that you might be unstoppable, do you agree with that assessment of senator cruz? >> no, i think it's going to go on a while because a lot of people both establishment and those of us us on the right who distrust big government, we worry about a trump nomination in the sense that we don't see him as being part of the limited government philosophy. we are worried that government gets bigger and that he's promising to fix things that he's promising to fix things if

you give him power and a lot of us think power corrupts and we ought to have a smaller central government not the bigger one. >> the animating sentiment of his base of support seems to be the opposite, seems to be that they trust him because as an outsider he is not corrupt. why do you think he's resonating so powerfully? >> i think people if he were the nominee will be very sorry, conservatives, because conservatives are always mad at all the deal making that goes on in washington. what's the art of the deal? i mean, this is going to be a guy that is going to make a deal or everybody. he has already said the clintons i've bought them many times, i buy and sell influence. >> another thing that people are exasperated by is the gridlock. >> our founding fathers wanted to a check and balance and not make it easy. there are times when things get uncorked and we do things expeditiously. when we were attacked on 9/11 the vote was nearly unanimous to respond, when we were attacked

at pearl harbor, nearly unanimous. when we have a real momentum we can make decisions, but for the most part government needs to be slow and thoughtful. some of us don't want more some of us don't want more government,

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