. we're talking politics. >> there has never been quite a field like this one. >> tonight, while the results are still not known, it looks like we are in a virtual tie. we had no good organization. we had no money. we had no name recognition. >> so, as i stand here tonight, breathing a big sigh of relief, thank you, iowa! i am a progressive, who gets things done for people. >> tonight is a victory for the

grass roots. tonight is a victory for courageous conservatives across iowa and all across this great nation. tonight the state of iowa has spoken. >> well, i have to start by saying i absolutely love the people of iowa. we finished second, and i want to tell you something. i'm a just honored. i'm really honored. in fact, i think i might come here and buy a farm. >> they told me that we have no chance because my hair wasn't gray enough and my boots were too high. they told me i needed to wait my turn. that i needed to wait in line. >> this is your turn! >> what a night in iowa!

>> what a night. >> razor thin margins through the night have stretched into the morning. and this morning nbc news is calling hillary clinton the apparent winner, apparent winner. but look how close bernie sanders is. the state party is calling it the closest election in the history of iowa. and as for the republicans, a record turnout drove a big win for ted cruz. donald trump not far behind, and senator marco rubio with a stronger than expected third place finish. good morning, it's tuesday, february 2nd. with us on set we have msnbc contributor and legendary -- >> legendary. >> former communications director for george w. bush nicolle wallace, up all night. in manchester, new hampshire, mark halperin, also up all night. in des moines, iowa. chris jansing, who literally doesn't sleep. >> on a normal night.

>> never! >> i was exhausted staying up all night watching nicolle. who was up here! i have no idea how you're still here. >> you guys are amazing. >> steve kornacki. >> i know. we have to start this where we ended it yesterday in des moines at 5:00. >> where was that? >> willie and i were having the conversation that we said, because it's a caucus, we have no idea how this is going to turn out. we're flying blind. and sure enough, there were some shocks last night. >> yeah. we talked about turnout being the big thing. >> thrilling. >> huge turnout on the republican side, a record by something like 50% over last year's record. 185,000. except the turnout benefited ted cruz and not donald trump. >> nicolle wallace, i am going to -- i'm going to say something that might get some of the obama people that ran that campaign who were friends of ours upset by comparing, but the only

comparison i have ever seen to organization and the turnout operation like ted cruz's is barack obama. here is a guy that new where every vote was. he got the hell beat out of him for two weeks. the momentum was behind him. he plummeted in the polls, the gold standard, the des moines register, plummeted in the polls. it's not that they got really bad at doing polls all of a sudden. no. ted cruz. >> changed the electorate. >> changed the electorate, light years ahead of the field in the turnout model. if you're waking up this morning saying all the polls suck -- no. this was about ted cruz knowing where every one of his votes were like nobody but barack obama in 2008. >> obama acknowledged they built upon george melman's model. i saw the cruz team in iowa the

day before the caucuses. they were so calm and so confident. there were no frantic staffers. i said they're either positive they're going to lose or they're positive they're going to win. but this was the calmest, coolest senior campaign team i had ever seen on the day before a caucus. >> i heard you say that last night. i heard people say that the cruz people were calm. and again, going back to barack obama's team, mika, it reminded me of david axelrod in 2012. i would call the romney team, we got this, we got that. we're going to win. i would call david axelrod and he said we're going to win by at least three percentage points. i said david, why are you so calm? he said, i'm so calm because i know where every vote is. we're going to get them to come out. if we don't i'll shave my mustache. >> david axelrod in cruz's

campaign is jeff roe, the campaign manager. an incredibly smart guy. he said a couple of days ago, not only will we win but watch for rubio to sneak up and push out trump for second place. >> if you look at the numbers historically, anybody that says donald trump is a big loser, da, da, da, donald trump got more votes than any presidential candidate in the history of the iowa caucus on the republican side. other than ted cruz. other than ted cruz. i mean -- so against any other operation, trump wins. last night cruz just had extraordinary operation. >> i was engaged in a ritual 40 minutes ago waiting for my bag at the manchester airport. i was waiting with the aforementioned jeff row.

the bags were not coming off the plane. the sanders' plane just came in before us so a lot of operatives were there. i said, jeff, this is a situation that requires manager. you are the campaign manager, please get everybody their bags, and he did. not his first or last act of management. jeff rowe said to me about 40 minutes ago that they were not the least bit surprised, that their research showed that trump was hurt by skipping the debate. they knew where their votes were and they were confident about getting him. the other thing, to compare him to past candidates who have had evangelical support, he is well funded and has more money in the race than any of the other candidates he's competing with combined and he's organized in subsequent states. this is not rick santorum or mike huckabee to win iowa and that's it. he is methodically thinking

about how to win enough delegates to be the republican nominee. >> he did use mike huckabee and rick santorum's speech last night. i was watching his victory speech. i said, that's not going to play well in new hampshire. >> off what mark was pointing out and nicolle pointed out earlier. steve smithed achmidt bumped in last night. they pointed out where they were going to do well. mississippi river towns, blue collar towns. it was striking watching the results. >> they knew the capacity of their model. it was 170,000 turnout. they knew if they hit the 60% on evangelicals, they got up to 62%. they knew to the decimal point what their model could handle and that was almost exactly what the results were. >> we'll have more on the different angles pertaining to this coming up. but let's get to the democratic side. it wasn't until 3:40 this

morning that nbc news could call hillary clinton the apparent winner. >> fortunately for everybody else she called herself the winner at 7:40. seriously? there were 82% -- >> i'm getting to that. >> it was 50/50 and she declared themselves the winner. you know what i tweeted? i declared myself able to wake up at 2:30 in the morning -- >> she is playing a guy's playbook. nobody would have a problem with it. that's how it works. >> bold move, maverick. >> hillary clinton leads bernie sanders by five state delegate equivalents according to our nbc news calculations. in iowa the democrats don't show actual votes but report results in expected state convention delegates. that's the number you see beneath the candidate's names. as for the national delegates awarded out of iowa, the total count at this hour is clinton,

29, sanders, 21. nbc news allocated 22 delegates to clinton and 21 to sanders. one at-large delegate has not been allocated. because clinton has the backing of seven of iowa's eight super delegates she gets that one. she released a statement declaring victory saying, quote, there is no outstanding information that could change the results. if they say it, it must be true, right? meanwhile, last night as the votes were still being tallied, clinton took the stage in des moines flanked by her husband and daughter and declared victory. >> what a night! an unbelievable night! what a great campaign. this has been an incredible honor to campaign across iowa with so many of you to make the case for the kind of future we want, for the democratic party and for the united states of

america! [ cheers and applause ] >> so, as i stand here tonight, breathing a big sigh of relief -- thank you, iowa! [ cheers and applause ] >> i want you to know i will keep doing what i have done my entire life. i will keep standing up for you, i will keep fighting for you. i will always work to achieve the america that i believe in where the promise of that dream that we hold out to our children and our grandchildren never fades. but inspires generations to come. join me. let's go win the nomination! thank you all and god bless you! [ crowd chanting "bernie, bernie, bernie. ]

>> iowa, thank you! [ cheers and applause ] >> we came to this beautiful state, where we had no good organization, we had no money, we had no name recognition, and we were taking on the most powerful political organization in the united states of america. [ cheers and applause ] >> and tonight, while the results are still not known, it looks like we are in a virtual tie. [ cheers and applause ] >> mark halperin, a virtual tie despite the fact when this campaign started bernie sanders was 40 points behind in iowa -- >> a mocked and ridiculed.

>> in july clinton was beating him by 20 points in iowa. i must say, you were one of the first people i heard say that sanders could win iowa and win new hampshire. a 50/50 split for sanders, sure looks like a win from here. >> it does to me. look, hillary clinton can say all she wants that she won. i was really taken aback last night when they put out a statement with lots of the vote out saying we're certain we're going to win. there was no way they could know that. i don't think either side has incentive to call for a recount. she wants to declare her victory and sanders i think can come away with this saying a tie is a victory for me and not risk having her win validated in any way. so they come to new hampshire. she has a devilish choice. she has to be here for four days. wednesday or a forum. thursday for a debate and friday for a dinner. she has to devote a lot of time to a state where i don't believe she has much possibility of

winning. she's fighting to reduce the margin from 12 to 8. she would probably be in south carolina or any other state where she is stronger. >> before we go on, i want to show you one more thing. this is bernie sanders on the back of a pickup truck i guess a few hours ago. this guy -- >> this morning. >> he keeps going. you can't deny that something is happening here with him. take a look. >> thank you so much. as you know, we just got in from iowa where we astounded the world! [ cheers and applause ] >> and now, in new hampshire, we're going to astound the world again. >> mike barnicle, those are up in your parts. i will never vote for bernie sanders, but i am not ashamed to say, looking at that shot, i got chills. that is american politics. >> that was two hours ago. >> -- at its best, in new hampshire. the epicenter of it all, every four years. and look at that.

this is a movement. this is a movement that took on a machine. on the republican side, the machine won. no doubt about it. the 1s and the 0s pulled it off. >> it's damaged. >> on the democratic side, not so fast. >> hillary clinton, in addition to achieving a tie yesterday with bernie sanders, she's got a real problem with the basic democratic constituency. you can see it in the sanders rally, every sanders rally. she has difficulty attracting and maintaining younger voters and she has difficulty in reaching out to the heart of the democratic party, the middle of the batting order, people who work hard for a living and who have been hammered by nafta, by tpp, by rising health care costs, by the crash of '08. >> a lot of things she's flip-flopped on. >> she lost two to one at least in previous polls for voters

under 40, 45 years old. we have seen that time and time again. i'm not exactly sure how it's going to shake out. but there is right now -- she just drew the most powerful machine in the united states politics basically tied a 74-year-old socialist from burlington. >> yep. >> i understand why she wants to declare victory. i would do the same thing. if you look at the delegates, she can reasonable do that. but if you look at bernie sanders' face at that rally -- we played it when he was in iowa. that was a smile of a guy down 30 points in iowa a few months ago. a guy who came back and entered the race as the whacky left-wing socialist guy, former mayor of burlington, vermont. and took on the machine. the money, the establishment, all the endorsements that she racked up and basically played to a draw as you said. he has a lot to be happy about. you saw it on his face last night. there is still some question about how the numbers in the

precincts came in. kasie hunt is there. what are we talking about here? >> reporter: first of all, the rally in new hampshire was more like half an hour ago, which was about the time that we got after the airplane onto the tarmac. many of the people there waited in the cold for several hours. we were delayed in iowa because of precisely this issue that we're going to talk about. they waited for him in the cold, at some points spontaneously breaking into simon and garfunkel's "america," the song from the ad that we got to know so well in iowa. the issues here are what the sanders' campaign calls 90 precincts that they say didn't adequately staff. they say the democratic party called them and asked for help in chasing down the delegate totals in these places. would this normally matter? when you talk about 90 precincts, that's 5% of precincts. with 1406 delegates out there,

normally this wouldn't make a big deal. but you showed the numbers of just how close this is. so, as we were getting off the plane, bernie sanders talked to reporters on the campaign plane on the way here. so did his campaign manager. but there was no wi-fi on the plane, so they didn't learn that hillary clinton had been declared the winner until after we landed and disembarked the plane. and that's when bernie sanders found out that this had been called a different way for him. the immediate question, of course, is, based on what they were saying when we took off, was there a chance or is there a chance that bernie sanders is going to contest the results, the calls of this iowa caucus. take a listen to what he said when i asked him about it just about an hour ago. >> -- is capable of running and winning any state of this country. we look forward to doing well here in new hampshire. and after that we're off to nevada and then south carolina, where i think we're going to surprise a whole lot of people, just as we did in iowa. >> do you anticipate contesting

the vote count at all? >> honestly, we just got off the plane and we don't know enough to speak about it. >> thank you, sir. >> reporter: at this point not willing to say that they're not going to contest the results. hillary clinton is, again, the apparent winner of the caucuses, nbc has called. i have to say, mika, joe and willie, the plane ride with bernie sanders, very much felt like this was somebody who came out as a winner. and i think you hit on it when you talk about how they came so far against a machine that seemed so overwhelming. i think he said to us, this is what i have proven. i have proven that i am electable. i hate when people say i love you and i would vote for you but you can't win. and he said he proved he can win last night. >> kasie, thank you, great job. other all-nighter. that was incredible. if you thought last night's

democratic caucus was a tossup. it literally was. look at how some precincts were forced to determine how to award an extra delegate. they call for a coin flip when it's even. the "des moines register" reports there were coin tosses at five different precincts and that in all five instances clinton won the toss. an iowa democratic party spokesman points out that the flips were to determine county convention delegates, which are only fractions of the state delegates awarded to candidates. but my god, chris jansing, it comes down to coin tosses at times. >> you know, i talked to a lot of people at the rubio event last night who had come out of these caucuses and they described them as, you know, wild and intense and crazy. and they said that they had never seen anything like it. some of the people who had been caucusing for years and years and years. this was an intensity that,

frankly, i talked also to a couple of republican party officials last night, and they're all fired up. i don't know who was more fired up, the people who were in the ballroom with marco rubio or the republican party officials who were saying, look, the good thing that's come out of this, and we all know that they haven't had the smoothest runup to the primary season on the republican side -- you know, they think they've got what they need, which is this intensity and this excitement that so many people were coming out and, you know, getting out to these caucuses in iowa. so i think that it's -- it's unlike anything any of us have ever seen, certainly at some of these caucus sites last night. people were amazed at what they were experiencing. >> really is. again, the iowa caucuses are usually a one-off. but you never know. sometimes they're very important. obviously, george w. bush in 2000 won the iowa caucuses

before getting thumped in new hampshire. >> 19 points. >> like we said yesterday morning at the start of the show, if this were new hampshire or south carolina, you could say without a doubt, donald trump is going to win. the question is, is he going to win by eight, 12 or 16. but in these caucuses you never know. rick santorum four years ago. nobody saw it coming. >> people are talking about rubio's strong finish. there was a point in the night where -- and chris was there -- where their spokesman came out and said, we're in striking distance of second. i think everyone knew that cruz and trump were in sort of a death match for the number one slot. but the delta between what cruz eventually ran up and trump is much wider than i -- i think rubio -- >> his speech was strange to me. i understand what hillary clinton did. i totally understand what hillary clinton did. and any -- any other candidate, especially a male one, would do the same thing. >> her husband did do that.

>> exactly. >> but marco rubio came in third. >> i thought he was smart to get out early and make it look -- convince -- >> what rubio -- >> he said -- my favorite line was he said, thank you for not believing the narrative. >> i was like, yeah, the narrative that you were going to finish third? >> but not this close a third. >> not this close a third. he finished third. >> there were not polls showing him within -- he lost to trump by one percentage point. there were not polls showing him that close. what's in the entrance poll data is that, on electability he has twice the -- the point he is making is that he's hillary clinton's nightmare. and it was borne out by the entrance poll data that shows him twice as electable in the minds of the caucus goers as trump and cruz. >> mike, we're always skeptical when somebody finishes in third. i tweeted, i wish i could be that excited about ever coming in third place. i would kill myself in third place. but, in this case, though, they

said three, two, one. they said -- they knew they were going to finish in third place. so now we go to new hampshire and see if he gets in second place. that's big. and then -- you know, if he wins south carolina he's off to the races. >> the third place finish pole vaults him successfully into new hampshire and probably with fund-raising as well. but it is just one of three or four truly interesting story lines. >> yes. right. >> in this primary season. and i don't know. i think i'm willing to put my money mon the most interesting story line is hillary clinton. can she pull together and appeal to the anger, the anxiety and the apprehension of an electorate that bernie sanders has clearly sized on. >> electrified. >> can she crack the corrode. >> we talked about the republican party for so much, so long. the remarkable story last night was the democratic race.

>> much more to come on "morning joe." an excellent political panel he here. does ted cruz have trump to thank for his victory last night. plus, after all the back and forth over immigration, it wasn't even close to the top concern for republicans. we'll break down what nbc learned about the caucus goers picking a president. it's the end of the road for more than one white house contender. how last night's dropouts could impact the race going forward. first, bill karins with a check on the forecast. how did the storm work out? >> the blizzard is starting in areas of nebraska, iowa. quickly down hill. the morning commute will be a nightmare. travel not advised on interstate 80. des moines, it's not snowing yet. the heavy snow is in southern iowa rapidly moving to the north. thunder snow reported this morning in omaha and nebraska.

rochester to sioux city are the areas that could get a foot of snow out of this. the other story later today, if you're in the tennessee valley southwards into areas of alabama and mississippi, we have a chance for some towards this afternoon and this evening associated with the same storm producing the blizzard. from nashville to paducah, members, jackson, montgomery and mobile, this is the area of greatest concern later today. it will happen right after the kids get home from school. starting 4:00 to 5:00. then they'll push to the east as we go through the evening. even by 10:00 p.m. this evening we're still watching very strong storms. cincinnati. louisville, nashville and overnight heading through areas of alabama. if you're in this region of the country, pay attention to here or all your local nbc stations when you get the forecast for the tornadoes this evening. you're watching "morning joe." more on the iowa caucus results coming up.

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we will go on to get the republican nomination, and we will go on to easily beat hillary or bernie or whoever the

hell they throw up there. iowa, we love you. we thank you. you're special. we will be back many, many times. in fact, i think i might come here and buy a farm. i love it. okay? >> you know, during the course of this campaign people have asked heidi and me, are you tired? and i will admit, it is 16, 18 hours a day, six, seven days a week. we are not tired at all. >> boy. >> so let's get through the actual numbers here. there is no denying the unprecedented energy on the republican side of the race. the iowa republican party counted more than 180,000 caucus goers, about 60,000 more than the previous record set in 2012. iowa knew it mattered.

the top three finishers last night each received more votes than the previous record, set in 2008. ted cruz got nearly 52,000 votes. the most ever for a republican candidate. this is a big story too, though. donald trump -- donald trump, out of nowhere, collected the second most ever, with over 45,000, finishing with 24%. never run a campaign. >> that is a sort of thing, nicolle -- and again, so when we're telling people how extraordinary turnout was, that's the sort of thing, if you told trump's campaign people in iowa, listen, give me a certain amount of money i'll guarantee you 45,000, take it! that's a historic number. again, it goes back to the cruz turnout machine, right? >> just their confidence in the modeling. trump got the turnout he needed. he just didn't have the apparatus in place. he actually ended up splitting -- he did better among

evangelicals than he probably even thought he would, but he had to split them with rubio. the other than cruz vote was probably split more evenly between him and rubio than their campaign anticipated. they got the turnout they needed. i think they just had to siphon off more support to rubio than he anticipated. >> he did something last night that i bet surprised a lot of people. he made the turn successfully. he made the turn successfully like a pro. >> it was comfortable. it was nice. and i'm going to buy a farm here. >> it was what you guys always say. when he has a setback, the reason he sort of gets away with these gaffes that would sabotage any other candidacy is because he adjusts quicker than you can blink. before you can go on tv and say "huge disaster for trump," he goes on tv and makes the most magnanimous speech of his candidacy. >> you looked at the twitter feed. the sharks were out. oh, he's going to lose. this was ted cruz's home field

advantage. everyone was saying, how is he going to handle it. this is a guy that got more votes than anybody else in the history of iowa presidential politics other than ted cruz. okay. you put that on one side. then on the other side you put the same guy once $9 billion in debt. like, this guy has been in a hole before much, much, much deeper than this. and people -- even in his loss, people under estimate donald trump. thinking he's going to go out there and scream. >> the question has always been can he take a punch. what happens if the guy who has been ahead the whole fight suddenly gets knocked down or stunned. he took a big punch last night. a lot of people as you point out were gleefully pointing out the speech would be the beginning of his melt down. he went up there. it was concise. he thanked the people of iowa and he just said, on to new hampshire. >> looking further down the field. ben carson finished with 9%.

rand paul 4%, two points ahead of jeb bush whose campaigns and super pacs spent over $14 million in iowa. carly fiorina, governors john kasich, mahuckabee and chris christie at 2% each. rick santorum, 1%. >> mike barnicle, this is how this year is so different. when you add up the support of all current and former governors' support, it equals almost the support of ben carson. the era -- and ben carson had a horrible night. the era of governors being presumptive favorites in presidential contests, over. >> it's surprising too. a couple of them, chris christie, does speak that language that voters are looking for this year in terms of anxiety, fear and apprehension, but it's not -- it didn't register in iowa. new hampshire is going to be -- >> we'll see.

>> the governors are doing very well in new hampshire right now. >> they are. i mean, caucuses are so different than an election. >> they are. >> this was fascinating. >> the coverage last night of the caucuses was kind of extraordinary. >> yeah. >> there was a clip of young people back and forth in a gym. >> it was amazing. >> oh, yeah. >> it was really -- >> somebody that's run four times, made me nervous as hell. i'm like, who would do that? no! i remember one time i drove past a precinct and got out to shake hands and then looked at the people and said, i'm getting back in the car. they're scaring me. >> the governors are doing that much better in new hampshire, right? they're doing better. but trump and cruz are still way ahead of everybody else. >> but not in new hampshire. in new hampshire, i think, you know -- >> trump is way ahead. >> trump, 25 points ahead, cruz at 13. then you have kasich clumped up and bush clumped up and christie clumped up. >> rubio is in there.

>> rubio was fifth in the last poll we saw. that's going to be -- >> he's going to be third. >> -- the question midweek, how high does rubio jump. >> they could not have liked what rubio did last night. he rolls out of iowa with this alternate to cruz and trump narrative that does not bode well for them. >> their backs are against the wall for jeb, mark halperin, for jeb, christie and kasich. their backs are against the wall. they have to outperform marco or go home. >> there are so many story lines here now. one is the one you guys were just talking about, those three governors, they've got to stop rubio. christie in particular, i think, is going to aggressively try to do that over the next coming days. that's a big story line. another, though, is lack at carson and rand paul. they both got a decent

percentage of vote. if those two guys quit the race or if their vote starts to peter away because they didn't do well in iowa, a fair amount of that is likely to go to cruz. finally, as you said, how does trump react. now with three candidates in here, does trump go after rubio now? does he go after cruz? does cruz go after trump or rubio? new hampshire over the next seven days, as always, will be one of the biggest, hottest stories. every news cycle is going to be an extraordinary match between still six candidates who think they can be the nominee and have some argument that they can get to the finals. coming up, do republican voters really want a political outsider inside the white house? nbc has some surprising new numbers on what iowa voters had to say about that. "morning joe" is become in juac moment. be good.

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we're very happy to be here tonight to claim victory. oh, that's right. it didn't happen. we all wish we had more resources and time and a lot of other things. but elections are about choices. the main thing i need to say to you tonight is that, as we come here tonight, it's time to officially suspend the campaign. not because of the votes. it's because of illness. obviously the voters are sick of me and i need to acknowledge

that. >> by the way, so just, to talk about how fickle politics is, you look at ted cruz last night. >> amazing. >> top of the world. >> that's where rick santorum was last time this happened. >> he won. >> top of the world. he's at 1% last night. that's where mike huckabee wasp 1%. that's the question. will iowa, once again, be a one-off or will they elect a president? >> up next we'll look at how evangelicals voted. iowa had its time in the spotlight. now it's new hampshire's turn. we explain how an entirely different dynamic is now at play. "morning joe" is back in a moment. want to get their hands on. if they could ever catch you.

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think of it as a seven seat for an action packed thriller. . all right. it is 45 past the hour. joining us now from manchester, new hampshire, columnist for the

"wall street journal," kim strassel. good to have you on board, kim. new hampshire is a whole different story. tell it to us. >> what we've got here is a whole new dynamic. you were talking about some of these second-tier candidates, jeb bush and chris christie and john kasich. they've been pouring everything into new hampshire. and it goes to show the trickiness of doing that and having that strategy. because now you've got all these guys riding in on this wave of momentum. does it mean anything, everything that they've put into new hampshire, that they're still hoping that it will. but i think that the whole race has been shook up at this point. and it's going to be awfully hard for them to break through. >> kim, it's -- the old saying is in politics that a week can be a lifetime. well, this is going to be a very, very long lifetime for a lot of these candidates. and what worked in iowa, ted cruz delivering a sermon last night, it completely falls on deaf ears in new hampshire,

doesn't it? >> no, and that's the tricky part for ted cruz is, you know, good for him. it was a very big victory. but you've got to look at how he won. he won with among people who say they are very conservative, among people who are evangelicals. people who thought he shared their values or he shared theirs. new hampshire is a very different electorate. who did ted cruz not do as well among last night. he didn't do as well among people who said they're only somewhat conservative or a little bit more moderate. among people who said that things that are most important to them are jobs and the economy. that is the new hampshire electorate. that's probably why he has not broken through in the polls in new hampshire. it's not clear that the iowa win necessarily gives him a huge boost here. on the other hand, someone like a marco rubio, it's a chance for him to really now step above that middle of the pack and potentially end up being more of

a race between him and maybe even donald trump. >> hey, kim, it's willie geist. this is the first big punch trump has taken. he had huge big leads in new hampshire, depending on the poll you look at. 30 points in some, at least 20 in others. how does this second place finish in iowa affect him? does it matter in new hampshire for trump? >> it does. because the most important aspect here is that you suddenly have an end to the idea of invincibility of donald trump. and that is something that has mattered so much to him, this idea that nothing could happen to him that would pull him down in the polls. well, now it turns out he has been brought back down to earth a little bit. the other question, of course, as we all know, is that a lot of how these races turn out is media focus. and media attention. will donald trump dominate those headlines any more, or is this a chance for the other candidates to suddenly be the one that all the tv cameras are chasing. and that could hurt him too. >> how about, kim, marco rubio?

what kind of a springboard is this surprisingly close third place finish for him? he came out and gave the earliest press conference. made himself look like a winner. in some regards he was given the expect achesatioations there. what does that do for him in new hampshire? >> the remarkable thing is this was planned. marco rubio's team for a long time has always believed that it is possible to peak too early in iowa. so they saved all their firepower for the last ten days that they were there. they felt that they were certainly getting a lot of momentum, even if it wasn't showing up in the polls. the idea behind this victory is as you said. it's a springboard. you come to new hampshire riding on a wave of unexpected momentum. you hopefully use that to break out from the pack of the bushes and the christies and the kasichs. you maybe make this a two-man race or start to make it a two-man race. because this is the other thing, too, about trump. there are a lot of campaigns out there who believe that, if you were to have a one-on-one race,

any republican candidate versus donald trump, the belief is that he has a ceiling and that you can consolidate support and beat him. that is the rubio idea in the end. >> kimberly strassel, thank you very much for coming on the show this morning. coming up, senator lindsey graham joins the conversation. he is backing jeb bush for president. but voters in iowa have other ideas. can the former florida governor get back in the game in new hampshire? we'll be right back with much more "morning joe." this clean was like, pow!

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tonight is a victory for the grass roots. tonight is a victory for courageous conservatives across iowa and all across this great nation. tonight the state of iowa has spoken. >> well, i have to start by saying i absolutely love the people of iowa. we finished second, and i want to tell you something. i'm just honored. i'm really honored. in fact, i think i might come

here and buy a farm. >> they told me that we have no chance because my hair wasn't gray enough and my boots were too high. they told me i needed to wait my turn. that i needed to wait in line. >> this is your turn! >> people spreading rumors that i had dropped out and that people should caucus for somebody else. so i just want you to know, i'm not going anywhere. >> that was pretty ugly, by the way. >> marco rubio won. >> oh, no. he -- he came in third place. >> no, no, he just said he won. >> it's sort of this culture where you go to these sporting events and everybody is a winner, so everybody gets a trophy. >> no. he declared victory. did you hear that? >> well, he said thank you for not believing the narrative that i was going to finish in third place. that's right. >> you would have done the exact same thing. if nobody thought you were going to win you would have got up

there and said look how well i did. i'm the winner tonight. >> i would have been happy and cheerful about coming in third place at a political contest? >> you would have faked it. >> what time did he pop on? half the vote was in. >> he ran out. he ran out. >> what in the world -- >> the ben carson, quickly, dirty, dirty politics early in the evening. ted cruz's people spreading the lie, all over twitter, all over iowa, spread the lie. got to say it because it's what happened. but ben carson, because ben carson was going home for one day for a change of clothes, they spread the lie that he was dropping out of the race because, if they could get enough caucus people to believe their lie, then of course the cruz people would pick up the carson people. this is from steve king, who we had on yesterday. carson looks like he is out. iwants need to know before they vote. most will go to cruz, i hope.

this was up and down. the cruz supporters all saying this. it was an absolute lie. i said in realtime last night, it's a lie. i can't believe they're doing it. >> that's not a tweet from a crazy blogger. it's a tweet from steve king, the chair of the iowa campaign. >> we had him on the show yesterday. >> as you pointed out, the carson campaign had to go out publicly and say, he's going home for a minute to get shirts and then he's going back on the road. >> file that under dirty. >> especially in realtime. spreading a lie in realtime hoping it filters out to people of the caucuses. >> it worked. >> and get them confused. >> it worked. >> probably did. >> i bet he picked up some of carson's potential voters. >> along with a mailer. >> they made it look like the state of iowa was accusing people of voting violations. >> the larger question is, why would you have to go home to get shirts? you can get a shirt in iowa. >> maybe they're tailored.

maybe it has initials. i get the initials on my all sweaters. mark harperjoining me now, mccain strategist -- >> he is a cross-trainer this morning. >> steve schmidt is with us. >> in washington, nbc political contributor editor of the fix at "washington post." sam san antontein is also with >> we'll go to steve shmittchsc. steve, we brought up this remarkable fact that donald trump got more -- this is so funny, the spin. he's a loser. he is this, he is that.

donald trump got more votes than any other republican in the history of iowa caucus politics. yet, he lost by 6,000 votes to ted cruz. have you seen a turnout operation as extraordinary as ted cruz's this side of barack obama's in '08 and '12? >> no. look, the cruz turnout organization lived up to all of the hype. at the end of the day iowa has performed as it's always performed, the evangelical christian candidate emerged atop of the field here in iowa. the thing for donald trump, though, joe, is that he's been in command for every facet of the race literally since he descended the escalator in trump tower and announced his candidacy. now donald trump is in the position of having to do in new hampshire what ted cruz had to do last night. ted cruz had to win in iowa in order to go on.

next week in new hampshire, donald trump has a must-win night in order for his campaign to continue. >> you know, mark halperin, donald trump had -- hated the des moines register/bloomberg poll. it ended up that he hated it for the wrong reason. the expectations of that poll were so high for trump because it's long been the gold standard that, when that poll put donald trump in first place, then suddenly the expectations shot through the roof, and even though he had what would have been considered a great night a couple weeks ago, suddenly he went below expectations because everybody looked at that poll and the quinnipiac poll that showed him winning this thing. >> yep. all the final polls showed him ahe ahead. expectations are a big part of it. no one becomes the nominee of either party if they're not an incumbent without a testing. we all knew donald trump would be tested somewhere along the

way. today is the day. he has an event in new hampshire here tonight. he is now being tested. i thought, as you said, he was good last night. today is the day when we learn what donald trump is made of as a presidential candidate. not as a businessman, not as a tv personality. as a presidential candidate can he fight back from adversity. right now both ted cruz and marco rubio have hotter hands in this race than he does. >> sam stein on the democratic side. how does the press score what happened last night? bernie sanders, started this campaign 40 points down, was still 20 points down not so many months ago, draws even with hillary clinton. how does it get scored? >> first of all, i'm so glad i didn't wear my under armour zipup this morning. it would have been humiliating to have the same outfit as receive dosteve does. on the democratic side of the aisle. bernie sanders trailed hillary clinton by 50-plus percentage points at the start of this in iowa, and managed to make it a

virtual tie. i mean, we can go into the whole issue of delegates and whatnot. and delegates do matter. for all intents and purposes it is a tie. on the flipside, i've heard a lot of democrats make the argument that he needed to do more with this state than he got. primarily because we saw in a poll recently something like 43% of iowa democrats identify themselves as socialist. it was an incredibly white electorate. idealogically and demographically in short, it lined up with bernie. though he comes out of it with momentum from having a race, the 50-point delegate. you have to look at the delegate math and wonder, okay, after new hampshire where does it happen, where does the next state take place. i'm not sure even his people know that answer yet. >> last night in iowa something incredible happened. if you look at the boston globe, usa today, "wall street journal," "new york times." every headline said what you said, sam, that it is a tie.

and bernie sanders last night, it was incredible to see him up there making his semi-victory speech, talking about a tie. and then, as of about an hour ago, he was speaking in the back of a pickup truck in new hampshire. here are both of those moments. [ bernie, bernie, bernie, bernie ] >> iowa, thank you! [ cheers and applause ] >> months ago we came to this beautiful state, where we had no political organization, we had no money, we had no name recognition, and we were taking on the most powerful political

organization in the united states of america. [ cheers and applause ] >> and tonight, while the results are still not known, it looks like we are in a virtual tie. [ cheers and applause ] >> thank you so much. as you know, we just got in from iowa, where we astounded the world! [ cheers and applause ] >> and now, in new hampshire, we're going to astound the world again. [ cheers and applause ] >> that's pretty exciting. >> it was. it was fun to watch. i mean, and he declared it a tie. the headlines declare it a tie. and hillary clinton declared herself the winner, which i think makes a lot of sense in terms of strategy. but it seems to be a tie. she is, according to nbc news, the winner. do we have hillary clinton from

last night? take a look. >> what a night, an unbelievable night. what a great campaign. this has been -- [ cheers and applause ] >> -- an incredible honor to campaign across iowa with so many of you to make the case for the kind of future we want, for the democratic party and for the united states of america. [ cheers and applause ] >> so, mike barnicle, now tough choice for a lot of the undeclareds in new hampshire. this really matters. about a third of the electorate is undeclared. >> right. you can switch your ballot. you can vote in either the republican primary or the democratic primary. >> so the calculation is, if you're a democrat that supports bernie, do you stay there and give him a big win, or do you jump over and vote for people like kasich and bush? >> or rubio. >> yeah, that's your choice. that's why the new hampshire primary is always a really interesting spectacle, because part of it reflects what happens in iowa with the undeclared

voters. >> and willie, that's something, again, we're not going to be finding out until next week, but that is the big question mark hanging over that race. >> bernie sanders already had a lead in new hampshire. now, if he can credibly say as he's said, i tied hillary clinton in a state where i was down by 50 points, does it give him an opening beyond new hampshire too. let's go to chris on this. based on the results we know last night. going to the republican side again. what's the dynamic in new hampshire look like right now? we were talking earlier about the candidates who have focused on the state. chris christie, jeb bush, john kasich in particular. what does the rise of marco rubio last night mean for their chances there? >> less oxygen, willie. look, i always thought, wrote, argued with the bush people that it made much more sense for him to skip iowa entirely. they didn't do that, pride. not sure.

they wasted a lot of money in that state. he was in the state as late as sunday i think trying to hold rubio's number down. now you have all the momentum in the establishment at least behind rubio. i actually think, look. rubio way over-performed. it was very close to trump in the numbers which we didn't expect. trump looks weaker now. rubio looks stronger. the winner of the iowa caucuses tends to be a social conservative who doesn't perform as well in new hampshire. huckabee finished a distant third in 2008 after winning iowa. santorum was a non-factor in new hampshire. rubio is a candidate that should fit new hampshire pretty well. i just think it is going to be hard for jeb, for chris christie and for john kasich to overcome the fact that marco rubio got 22% of the vote and jeb bush got 3%. john kasich got 2%. when actual people vote and you look like you are trying to win, which they did to a certain

extent. it's problematic when the other guy gets so much more support. >> so many candidate through the years, they take the bait in iowa, they can't win but they just can't stay away. look at the time chris christie wasted in iowa. look at the time jeb bush wasted in iowa. look at the time that all these candidates that were never going to do well in iowa wasted there instead of staying in new hampshire and putting their flag firmly in the ground there. >> you have to give marco rubio and his operation credit for two things. they played the expectations game better than anyone else in iowa, and they went in late. he did not spend a lot of time in the state except at the very end when he visited quite a bit. he caught up a number of visits to a lot of the candidates. now you cannot deny, even though jeb bush and chris christie, i believe i'm comfortable in saying, personally disdain the notion that marco rubio should be the nominee over them, you cannot deny his appeal to voters. he went in late and got a lot of

the vote from a standing start. the challenge for them all here, and the challenge for rubio now is, if they spend -- if the four of them, kasich included. spend the week beating each other up, what does that do to trump and cruz? make no mistake. trump and clinton were losers last night but are still strong figures in this race. clinton is still the favorite for the democratic nomination. trump is still leading in every state going forward after iowa. you can't ignore the two of them in the dynamics as we talk about what's going forward, but the rubio factor is huge. he is getting tim scott's endorsement today, senator from south carolina. other establishment people now will say let's flood to rubio and try to stop cruz and trump. >> steve schmidt, let's talk about what mark halperin just said that trump, at least as of this morning is ahead in 47, 48 states, he's ahead in every national poll. iowa was never a natural fit for him, a state where all these evangelicals went.

but he went in and he is one of the guys that went in there and fought. he was obsessed with winning iowa. we said on this program all along, why not celebrate the 49 states where you're ahead that are a tighter fit. he didn't. how does that impact him moving forward and is he still the candidate to beat in new hampshire? >> he is the candidate to beat in new hampshire. he has a commanding lead. look, donald trump has built his brand in this campaign on winning. he came into the state of iowa, he performed well in the state of iowa. no republican has ever won both iowa and new hampshire. that tradition continues. you win the iowa caucuses as a republican, you're much more likely to be a fox news host than you are to be president of the united states. so we come to new hampshire now. what donald trump has to do is watch the fight now between ted cruz and marco rubio. rubio has to get into second place in the state of new hampshire. looking ahead to nevada, marco rubio is in good shape there. you come down to south carolina

where i think we're going to have this titanic struggle between marco rubio, ted cruz and donald trump, and i think that marco rubio doesn't have to win in south carolina. he just has to be the establishment alternative to whomever bests donald trump or ted cruz in that contest. if it's trump beats cruz or cruz beats trump, you have essentially a two-way race. carly fiorina's campaign is over. ben carson's campaign is over. rand paul's is over. john kasich, jeb bush, chris christie, make their last stand in new hampshire. the day after new hampshire we're going to be in a three-person race. >> so all the action moved overnight from iowa to new hampshire. so did hallie jackson. she joins us from new hampshire. you spoke to ted cruz last night. they have to be thrilled with the outcome. we were obviously all impressed with the turnout machine they put together in iowa. >> they celebrated, too, on the plane last night. champagne, a festive atmosphere.

we landed a couple hours ago here in new hampshire. the senator catching up on some sleep before getting on the move again. he's headed to south carolina this afternoon and then back to this state tonight, guys. it's a state that maybe doesn't seem like a natural fit for him but where momentum from his iowa victory to potentially put him in the top two here. >> tonight is a victory for courageous conservatives across iowa and all across this great nation. >> congratulations. >> well, thank you. >> how do you feel? >> it has been a remarkable victory. it's a testament to the grass roots. it's courageous conservatives all across iowa and all across the country who stood up today and had their voices heard. >> you're one of the few candidates in this race who has gone sort of toe-to-toe with trump and taken a punch from him. >> yeah. >> or taken body shots, as you might phrase it. >> there is a big question mark on your head. and you can't do that to the party. >> how does this reflect in what you might do with your closest competitor, donald trump, moving

forward? >> well, listen, my approach to donald and everybody else has been not to go in the mud, not to engage in the insults or attacks. if he or anyone else insults me, i don't respond in kind. >> you've attacked him. >> i'm not going to take legal advice from donald trump. >> i do think differences on policy, on record, on substance is fair game. i think the voters are not interested in politicians bickering like school children. you know, i will note, the last two winners of the iowa caucus came out of this caucus with no money. they were broke. and they did not have the national team or infrastructure to be in a position to be able to compete effectively and win the nomination. we're in a markedly different position. >> like to say this is a two-man race, but giving marco rubio's showing tonight, what many would consider a strong third, how can you keep saying this? isn't this a three-man race now? >> that's up to the voters. i'm amused at listening to the media talking about what an impressive third-place finish. listen, what i think is

impressive is the 50,000 courageous conservatives that stood up in the state of iowa and gave us the largest victory in republican in the history. i think everyone in the field is terrific. what i am encouraged by is the grass roots army coming together and getting stronger each and every day. >> what does this mean for you going forward? what's the strategy for you? how do you win the nomination from here? >> it's very much the same thing as what we did in iowa, what we're doing in new hampshire, south carolina, nevada and all across the country. we are answering the questions of the men and women in new hampshire and earning the votes one person at a time. >> so you heard senator cruz talk about the money factor there, the fact that he has the resources to compete, his campaign believes long-term. that's central to their strategy. as for their strategy in this state, the senator said to me he'll be doing the same thing he did in iowa which is get out on the ground and do the retail

politicking stopping at the house parties, the vfw halls and the place that's ubiquitous here in new england, the dunkin' donuts, the coffee shops that are so everywhere. the producer brought us some. he'll be stopping there. new region, new race. one week out. >> thanks, hallie. steve schmidt. ted cruz made an interesting point. he has a bigger organization, he has more money than santorum had in '12 and huckabee had in '08. i'm sorry. you can't get around the fact that his message was so finely tuned to iowa. which at least on the republican side has always been a one-off. i could take you back to 1976 and we could go through how reagan won in '76 but lost the nomination. bush won in '76 but lost the nomination. and you can just go -- keep going through it all. george h.w. bush finished behind

pat robertson. i think george w. bush was the only challenger that ever won iowa, that went on to win the republican nomination. is ted cruz going to be the second, or are you with me when i hear him delivering what many people in new england would say sounds like a sermon, you're thinking, this is an iowa candidate that won with a home-field advantage. >> well, he certainly was made for iowa, joe. huckabee and santorum both came out of the iowa caucuses with barely enough money to fill up the gas tank on the campaign bus. ted cruz's campaign is built for the long haul. he has a national campaign. he has the ability to project political power in the states and primaries. certainly through super tuesday all around the country. that being said, he has to be able to win somewhere now. the other candidates who have emerged out of iowa were not

able to take the early victory and win anywhere else early. so where does ted cruz win next? so you see this showdown looming now, i think, between cruz and donald trump in south carolina. and i think, whomever of the two emerges out of that south carolina primary is going to be the candidate that goes the distance and will be challenged by marco rubio in that establishment lane. the contours of this race after last night are very, very clear. so i think that marco rubio, as you look down the road now, he's going to be waiting there, probably won't win south carolina, but will be in contention there in that establishment lane and go down the distance against whomever emerges, cruz or trump and that's our carolina primary. >> mark halperin, give us a scouting report right now. ground game for ted cruz and marco rubio in new hampshire. >> well, i think ted cruz could

finish second here. in talking to some cruz strategists he could even finish first. in the establishment guys -- if trump falls a little bit and the establishment guys split the vote. he could win. it's mathematically and politically possible but i am not predicting. he has an effort here. you have to give his team the benefit of the doubt that they've got a plan to come in here, even as late as this week. they have enough resources to do it. they're really more candidate driven than the organization driven. they did not have a huge organization in iowa, yet they got to a strong third place. i don't think for rubio it's going to be about winning this on organization. it's going to be about winning on message. his personal story and electability. that's the argument he's going to make now. i believe his super pac will make it too. it's a darned good one against the other two guys. >> thank you.

still ahead. chuck todd standing by, plus the communications director for ted cruz, rick tyler, joins the conversation. we'll ask about the candidate's big win last night and the complaints from a competing campaign about dirty politics. you're watching "morning joe." we'll be right back. hi! every mom is a coach... an artist... sometimes even a zoologist. every mom is a working mom... and it's working moms everywhere who inspired us to work harder. so we made our banquet meals even better. with mashed potatoes now made with real cream and chicken strips with 100% natural chicken breast. so now, there's more to love with banquet. now serving... a better banquet. start with a specialist. start with a team of experts who treat only cancer. every stage. every day. the evolution of cancer care is here. learn more at cancercenter.com/experts. appointments available now.

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moderator of "meet the press" and host of mtp daily, chuck todd. >> chuck. you said you were up till 4:30 last night. the clintons told you you could have gone to bed early. >> there were so many speeches last night. >> it was like one of the little league things. everybody is winner. take your trophy. >> in an odd way they created more drama by doing that. had they just let it go, then this morning we're saying, oh, they eked it up. that's it. period. end of story. she could have given the same speech without the whole campaign background reporters.

we're confident. it just seemed unnecessary. and i think -- i guess -- i know that they were fearful that they thought the sanders campaign were going to contest everything about it, muck things or whatever. when something is that close -- by the way, we've seen stories about the coin flips that decide the little thing. i think, if you do the math she won every coin flip. had sanders won every coin flip, he wins this whole thing. >> oh, my god. >> can you imagine, let's say she is the person who takes the oath. basically we're talking a coin flip may have decided the presidency. >> let me ask you. so the romney -- >> no wonder people are mad! >> -- went on for a month until santorum was finally named the winner. >> he didn't get the win. >> too late. >> so nbc is calling hillary the apparent winner. but are we going to have a month of recounts and a month of -- for something this close? >> you don't recount per se. there is nothing to -- look, there could be a correction.

one of the big changes last night that i think the clinton campaign missed, that -- there was a point where there was an error in the -- in some of the returns that came from i think it was dallas county. and what that did is that -- that closed the gap dramatically. instead of what looked like -- remember, it was about 51/48 for most of the night and all of a sudden it went to 50/49. that was just a correction. it's still possible. they double-check one more time. >> like you say, just like santorum. if something happens and bernie wins a week from now, doesn't matter. she gets the bump. >> i don't know if she gets a bump. she avoided a complete disaster by being declared a winner. >> you don't think she goes into new hampshire a little stronger. i mean, if he killed her there -- >> that's my point. >> but my point is that, it would have been a complete disaster had she had lost. then sanders declares victory and you're wondering, geez, does she have to wait until south

carolina to get a win. >> chuck, let's take a couple of steps back. hillary clinton, the woman who was ahead by 40 points when this started, over a socialist from vermont who is not even a democrat. he is not even a democrat. he tied her in one of the two most important contests in the democratic primary. >> but i'm going to go the other way here. and you say, if bernie sanders couldn't knock her out in -- under these -- these are the best conditions he could have. homogeneous, electorate, very progressive -- >> when you say homogeneous. white. >> yes. >> a white. >> i'll say homogeneous. you can say white. >> about as white as this side of oslo. >> by the way, iowa is -- >> every paper. >> i saw that the numbers were up to double-digit non-white vote in iowa, for what it's worth, inside the democratic party. >> going forward, chuck, what if he says, look, i fought to a draw in iowa.

i was down 50 points. she had the money and establishment. then i threw a knockout punch in new hampshire. >> the knockout punch would be -- is beating her in a state with a diverse electorate. that's what he has got to do. it's almost the reverse of barack obama. barack obama was impressive in iowa because of what you just said. the african-american candidate won in a white electorate. >> exactly. >> here is bernie sanders, who needs to prove he can win basically in a state with a heavily african-american electorate. that's how -- if you're asking when can he knock her out, that's what it would take. >> not even a knockout but to win an election that proves he can get over that hurdle. >> that's right. >> if he comes out of new hampshire strong and competes closely in south carolina. >> nevada is before south carolina. nevada is a caucus -- that's where he could -- to me, if he's going to -- that's where he has to focus his energies. not just winning -- new hampshire is big still, but see if he can pull an upset in

nevada. >> long term. i know the republican side they changed back a lot of winner-take-alls. on the democratic side could we have a prolonged war of attrition. >> none of it is winner take all. >> if we see a series of 52-48, then this battle goes -- >> it does. the problem for sanders is she basically has all the super delegates. >> that's how she stayed alive as long as she did, by pulling -- >> that's right but the super delegates between obama and clinton were split almost 50-50. sanders doesn't have any. >> let's get to the republican side. joining us from manchester, new hampshire, the communications director for the ted cruz campaign, rick tyler. congratulations this morning. >> so rick -- >> good morning. thank you. >> you may not take this as a compliment. we mean it as a compliment. you guys learned from barack obama and some of the best get

out the vote operations. what you all did -- and we've been talking about it now for an hour and a half. what you guys did in iowa last night was nothing short of extraordinary. how did it happen? i talked about how axelrod knew weeks before what his vote count was going to be. when did you guys know that you had iowa? >> we've been tracking it daily for weeks now. and we were neck and neck. and it was really tight. sometimes we were up and sometimes we were down. but in the final days we knew that we were up. and so, you really have to believe the numbers, because the des moines register poll and the quinnipiac poll came out and on election day it's like this is all real. what's going to happen. then the numbers started coming in. at first we were slightly behind, and then we were ahead and we were ahead all night and then the numbers just started pouring in and we got the win.

so we were pretty excited about it. it was really a turnout operation. >> unbelievable. >> having 12,000 people on the ground, having all of our caucus captains named and having our 1500 precinct captains named. the thing is about ted cruz, though, these people weren't hard to find. it was like, they wanted to be found. we were just able to find them and get them to work. so many people came from across the country to help us in iowa. really, from all over the country. so we were making 20,000 calls a day, knocking on 2,000 doors a day. unbelievable numbers. we're really pleased. >> you have been tracking this. you guys are confident. you guys won. i have to ask, what with the allegations of, i guess i'll have to say that in quotes, of dirty tricks. the mailers that really seem totally off color in terms of how to win. and also the -- the sort of putting it out there that ben carson had dropped out. with your top surrogate even tweeting it. why do that?

>> well, for one, the mailer was -- it was modeled after the iowa republican party mailer that got so many republicans elected in the last cycle. and it was very successful. it was one of many tools we used to persuade people. what i like to tell people is three days ago i was in an uber car and the guy told me that he wasn't going to caucus. i said if you were going to who would you caucus for. he said ted cruz. so i spent the rest of the trip trying to guilt him into caucusing. >> the mailer, wasn't it very deceptive. wouldn't you consider that dirty politics if that was done to your candidate? >> i could show you lots of mailers that people -- that i would consider deceptive. it was reminding people it was their obligation and duty to vote. people who normally don't vote that we believed would vote for ted cruz. through the follow-up calls we got a lot of people to say they would vote for ted cruz. on the ben carson allegation that's false. we repeated what ben carson said

in his own words. he said after iowa he was going back to florida for a couple of days then to d.c. for the prayer breakfast. that told us he was not going to new hampshire. that was not a dirty trick. it was surprising by a campaign that was once leading in iowa saying he's not going to come to new hampshire. that's a news item. >> a lot of people wondering now what you do with this win in iowa. you guys put together an organization that future republican campaigns will study the way democrats studied the obama operation in iowa. now what do you do with it? some have speculated maybe cruz should skip new hampshire, head to south carolina and wait for the crew to meet him down there where perhaps he'll do better. will you compete hard in new hampshire? if so, what's your ground game like there as compared to iowa where you were so strong? >> we'll absolutely compete in new hampshire. we're here now. we'll go to south carolina and do a rally event and then come back to new hampshire. if you consider all the things

we were against in iowa, the sitting governor singling us out for defeat. the establishment from everywhere from bob dole to mitch mcconnell to richard burr saying they'd rather have trump to deal with. donald trump himself. a lot of people competing in the evangelical lane. it wasn't an open lane for us. we had to compete with ben carson and marco rubio, a lot of people. here in new hampshire we have a great team. former senator bob smith, former speaker of the house, bill o'brien, the counselor, david wheeler, we've got the whole 603 alliance, a consortium of conservative groups, all out working hard in new hampshire. i am not predicting a win but i think we'll do well here. >> we were showing the clip of ted cruz's victory speech. we were afraid steve king was going to pass out from excitement. let me ask you in closing -- >> we were pretty excited. >> -- since you guys had better

numbers than anybody else through this entire process, what did your internals show you after donald trump skipped the fox debate? did that, from your internal polling, did that hurt him? was it a wash? did it help him? >> it hurt him. i don't think it hurt him badly, but it definitely hurt him. >> what about senator palin? did you see any plus or minus after the palin endorsement? >> no. no real bump. >> yeah. all right. >> nicolle thought it was going to be a huge bump. i'm joking. thanks so much. congratulations. again, an extraordinary turnout operation. congratulations to you and everybody in the ted cruz campaign. >> thanks, joe. >> rick tyler. >> thank you very much. chuck todd will stay with us. i can't say it enough. because i know how hard it is to geo-tv, get out the vote. what they did, chuck, last night, was just -- i'm sorry, in

political terms -- mind-blowing. >> trump gave them his best shot, okay. >> yeah. >> terry brandtstad came out against him. he took the trump punch and survived. that's a big development in this race. >> mika, when we were in new hampshire in '12 and saw barack obama speak up there, the crowd was dead. it was flat. they didn't want to be there. we left there going, oh, gee, i mean, this doesn't look great for him. romney was getting 30,000 people in pennsylvania and everybody was going crazy. it was just methodical. it was ones and zeroes. >> math. >> they knew where the people were. they pulled them out. it was math. >> i can't tell if it's my point of view but i feel like sarah palin hurt trump or didn't help as much as they thought which hurt. does that make sense? >> i don't know why he brought her back the last day.

i mean, maybe one day, fine. bringing her -- >> you look reticent to say something. >> i'm having flashbacks to 2008, the analysis that she didn't help as much as they thought. you could say that about '08. she's not the reason mccain lost but did she perhaps not help as much as they thought. >> i always thought sarah palin saved three states for mccain. georgia, north carolina. definitely saved georgia. she kept him in places -- >> what about iowa for trump? >> trump himself made it look like it wasn't a help. i almost wondered -- you could tell he didn't. i always felt -- he didn't embrace it. >> it didn't ring. >> if you don't own it, then maybe the people can tell. >> all right. coming up, david axelrod says we'll never really know who won iowa's democratic caucus. don't tell that to the clintons. who knew actually in the top of the fifth inning. was it clinton or sanders as the race moves forward to the next big contest.

andrea mitchell joins us ahead on "morning joe." ♪jake reese, "day to feel alive"♪ ♪jake reese, "day to feel alive"♪ ♪jake reese, "day to feel alive"♪ can't afford to let heartburn get in the way? try nexium 24hr, now the #1 selling brand for frequent heartburn. get complete protection with the new leader in frequent heartburn. that's nexium level protection.

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that's why i switched from u-verse to xfinity. now i can download my dvr recordings and take them anywhere. ready or not, here i come! (whispers) now hide-and-seek time can also be catch-up-on-my-shows time. here i come! can't find you anywhere! don't settle for u-verse. x1 from xfinity will change the way you experience tv. i'm asking -- >> here is a trick i learned from the guys. >> what's that? >> does saying something actually make it true? >> yes. >> i know! hillary clinton declares victory long before any of the networks were ready to do the same. and i think she took a trick out

of the old male book. nbc's andrea mitchell breaks down the former first lady's apparent win last night in iowa. good for her! we'll be right back.

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try cool mint zantac. it releases a cooling sensation in your mouth and throat. zantac works in as little as 30 minutes. nexium can take 24 hours. try cool mint zantac. no pill relieves heartburn faster. 47 past the hour. joining us now from -- hold it together, nicolle. it's okay. [ laughter ] >> okay. so she's been up -- like you were up until 4:30, right? >> we were reliving some of the highlights. you guys had your moment at 3:00 p.m. yesterday. >> what did we do? >> what did you do? >> we were a little tired. >> i am reaching that moment now. sorry. >> you know what, the problem is we made the mistake of starting to talk about -- >> you're watching the career killer segment right now. >> all right. >> we're sorry. >> we'll be quiet. joining us now -- we'll elevate the conversation with nbc news --

>> hold on one second. hold on one second. >> it's okay. >> you need that right there. >> i've been there. i've been there. >> you weren't there. >> you weren't there. chief foreign affairs correspondent and host of andrea mitchell reports, andrea, tell us what you heard from the clinton campaign last night and when you heard it. >> i should first preface this by saying i am punchier than nicolle. truly! i mean, nicolle is in much better shape than i am. we have been going straight through for two days and landed here i guess around 4:30 this morning and came right here to try to figure out, you know, what the heck is going on. when we landed, we didn't have wi-fi on the plane, that's the first time. a cheer went up from the front of the plane, which was the staff, that they had won this apparent victory, which they had declared in emails at 10:30 last night central time. look, you know, obviously for hours there was radio silence,

so all of us were messaging clinton aides and saying, what's going on? what are you seeing? what are you tracking? what are your models? finally there was this message to see that we have won and that our modeling shows that we have won. and it was long before anyone could have possibly declared that because the -- they hadn't counted a lot of precincts. a lot of votes were still out there. a lot of networks hadn't declared anything. they were trying to get ahead of any declaration and declare victory. there were some -- it was clear that there were some missing counties that hadn't been counted. but by then she arrived with bill clinton and chelsea. we had been told that chelsea, then bill, then hillary clinton would speak. there were teleprompters set up. they were pulled down. bill and chelsea never spoke. there was no rope line or glad-handing. she gave a very short speech. it was completely different. her declaration of victory was that she could breathe a sigh of

relief and then a tweet after she had left. this was clear it was an awkward moment. we got on the plane and her top aides said, yes, we won. and that was their yes, we have. >> they made the declaration, mika and yet nbc news this morning and all the other news agencies have said apparent winner >> apparent, exactly. >> we may not know for quite a while whether she officially won or not. >> you will at headlines are saying it's a tie and that's obviously in print, but, andrea, what does apparent victory mean? is it okay that she declared complete victory? is that correct? >> it certainly was not correct at the time. there is no way. and it's an apparent victory which still could be challenged, we have yet to hear what the sanders campaign is going to do. the one thing we do know is that bernie sanders landed here, all these planes landed almost simultaneously, 4:30, quarter of 5:00 this morning, and he

immediately went, climbed on a pickup truck, you know, i guess about 15 minutes from the airport and greeted supporters who had been waiting until after 4:00 in the morning in the cold of new hampshire. you all know how cold it is here, and had been waiting to greet him. so he is absolutely -- you're seeing the pictures here. >> so exciting. >> he is going to wage a very vigorous campaign, he is way ahead in new hampshire. sure, the clinton organization can, you know, fight him in primary states, he's going to go to nevada, he's going to be strong in minnesota and other caucus states. he is going to put on a really tough fight. >> all right. andrea mitchell, thank you so much. >> thank you for the all nighter. >> up two nights. >> she is amazing. >> she's just not sleeping. she's working hard. thank you so much, andrea, greatly appreciate it. >> steve schmidt, quickly, you told us what the republican race looked like, what does the democratic race look like? >> at the end of the day we're talking about hillary clinton's victory. hillary clinton barely won the iowa caucuses against a

74-year-old socialist from the state of vermont and it looks like she's headed to defeat in the state of new hampshire. this race is going to come down to south carolina and we're going to see if bernie sanders' populous message resonates with african-american voters who will make up 60% of the democratic turn out in that state. but one thing we've seen over the -- over the course of this campaign in the first contest, notwithstanding her e-mail tref ails of last week with the classified information is hillary clinton is a very damaged, very weakened candidate who should she be the nominee heads into this general election as a -- as a very, very, very damaged democratic front runner. >> wow. >> all right. steve schmidt, thank you so much. >> chuck todd, quickly before we go, tell me whether i'm nitpicking or not, i may be, but it seems to me if you're hillary clinton and you have trouble with people trusting you, trusting your honesty, trusting your integrity, if you go out and declare something that you

and brian williams and everybody else on tv is saying is nonsense and then you go out on the stage and pretend that you have won and you hug everybody and you go, thank you, oh, boy, that was close. while the political gun is pointed right at the middle of your campaign, doesn't that feed into the already existing perception that she's disingenuous at best? >> well, it was just -- that's what made the decision to declare before the networks did so risky because had she done it and let's -- let's say the count -- and it still is possible, you know, we don't know if they are double-checking the work -- >> regardless of -- >> did it do her more harm? >> it could have. >> even -- >> that's my question. >> even among people that saw her last night going, wait a second, she hasn't won yet, why are they lying and pretending this he know something that none of us know?

>> it would have been a disaster, though, had the numbers gone the other way. so i -- i get why they -- well, i don't get why they did it. i get why they were nervous about the idea that -- i guess they thought sanders was going to hurry up and declare victory before them. that's the only thing i can think of why they did it. >> that was a mistake sanders didn't. grab the mike faster. >> i'm shocked, mika. the clintons playing by their own rules. >> chuck todd, thank you so much. we will be right back. this bale of hay cannot be controlled. when a wildfire raged through elkhorn ranch,

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well, joe, we have a lot more ahead. >> yeah. >> including word from the lone female senator, a u.s. senator who has not come out in support of anybody yet, hillary clinton or bernie sanders. this of course is elizabeth warren, a lot of people think there is a lot of weight in her endorsement and we have word from her about when that might come. no endorsement yet. much more continuing coverage of the iowa caucus results right here on "morning joe" straight ahead. me off right here. oh no, i'll take you up to the front of the school. that's where your friends are. seriously, it's, it's really fine. you don't want to be seen with your dad? no, it's..no.. this about a boy? dad! stop, please. oh, there's tracy. what! [ horn honking ] [ tires screech ] bye dad! it brakes when you don't. forward collision warning and autonomous emergency braking. available on the newly redesigned passat. from volkswagen. when emergency room doctors choose an otc pain reliever

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like we are in a virtual tie. we have had no political organization. we had no money. we had no name recognition. >> so as i stand here tonight breathing a big sigh of relief, thank you, iowa. i am a progressive who gets things done for people. >> tonight is a victory for the grass roots. tonight is a victory for rage ous conservatives across iowa and all across this great nation. tonight the state of iowa has spoken. >> well, i have to start by saying i absolutely love the people of iowa. we finished second and i want to

tell you something i'm just long erred. i'm really honored. in fact, i think i might come here and buy a farm. >> they told me that we have no chance because my hair wasn't gray enough and my boots were too high. they told me i needed to wait my turn, that i needed to wait in line. >> this is your turn. what a night in iowa. >> what a night. >> razor thin margins through the night have stretched into the morning and this morning nbc news is calling hillary clinton the apparent winner, apparent winner, but look how close bernie sanders is. the state party is calling it the closest election in the history of iowa. as for the republicans a record turn out drove a big win for ted cruz. donald trump not far behind and senator marco rubio with a stronger than expected third place finish. good morning, it's tuesday,

february 2nd. with us on set we have msnbc contributor and legendary columnist. >> he's legendary. >> mike barnicle. >> legendary. >> legendary. >> former communications director for president george w. bush, nicolle wallace, up all night. and in man chest, new hampshire, mark halperin, also up all night. and in da moon iowa chris jansing who literally doesn't sleep. >> but on a normal night. >> never. >> i was exhausted staying up all night watching nicolle who was up here all night. i have no idea how you're still here. >> you guys are amazing. steve kornacki. >> i know. we have to start this where we ended it yesterday in des moines at 5:00. >> okay. where was that? >> well, willie and i, remember, willie, we were having the conversation we said because it's a caucus we have no idea how this is going to turn out, we're flying blind, and sure enough there were some shocks

last night. >> we talked about turn out being the big thing. >> thrilling. >> huge turn out on the republican side, a record by something like 50% over last year's record, 185,000, except the turn out benefited ted cruz and not donald trump. >> and nicolle wallace, i'm going to say something that might get some of the obama people that ran that campaign who were friends of ours upset by comparing, but the only comparison i have ever seen to organization and a turn out operation like ted cruz's is barack obama. here is a guy that knew where every vote was. he got the hell beat out of him for two weeks. the momentum was behind him. he plummeted in the polls. the gold standard, the "des moines register," plummeted in the polls. it's not that they get really bad at doing polls all of a sudden. people are like, oh, the polls are wrong. no, ted cruz -- >> changed the electorate.

>> -- changed the electorate, was light years ahead of the field in this turn out model. by the way, if you're waking up this morning you say, oh, all the polls suck. no. this was about ted cruz knowing where every one of his votes were like nobody but barack obama in -- >> and obama acknowledged that they built on ken mel man's model for george w. bush's win in iowa. so every cycle people improve upon the last model. i saw the cruz team in iowa the day before the caucuses and they were so calm and so confident, they were at lunch for a couple hours. i said they are either positive they're going to lose or positive they are going to win. this was the calmest, coolest senior campaign team i had ever seen on the day before a caucus. >> i heard you say that last night. i heard people say that the cruz people were calm, and again going back to barack obama's team, mika, it reminded me of david axelrod in 2012. i would call the romney team,

we're going to win, we have this, we have that, i would call david axelrod and he said we are going to win by at least 3 percentage points and kept going back and forth. he was so calm. i go, david, why are you to calm? he said i'm so calm because i know where every vote is, we're going to get them to come out, they're not and if we don't i will shave my must ash. >> he tweeted last night something about never knowing who is going to win iowa on the democratic side. >> david axelrod in cruz's pain is jeff roe who is the campaign manager. he actually said a couple days ago not only are we going to win but watch for rub row to sneak up and push trump for second place and that's exactly happened. >> we heard all day yesterday high turn out would help donald trump. if you look at the numbers historically and anybody that says donald trump is a big loser, donald trump got more votes than any presidential candidate in the history of the iowa caucus on the republican side other than ted cruz.

other than ted cruz. i mean, so against any other operation trump wins, last night cruz just had an extraordinary operation. >> incredible. >> 40 minutes ago i was engaged in a quad rent y'all ritual waiting for my bag at the manchester airport after an overnight flight and i was waiting with the aforementioned jeff roe and the bags were not coming off the plane, it was a great scene because the sanders plane had landed just before us so there were a lot of reporters and operatives waiting for their bags and i said to jeff roe, this is a situation that requires managing, you are the campaign manager, please get everybody their bags and he did, not his first or last act of management. jeff roe said to me, again, about 40 minutes ago that they were not the least bit surprised at this, that their data showed that trump was hurt by skipping the debate, which didn't show up in other data that we saw, and he said that they knew, as, joe, you said, they knew where their votes were, they were confident

about getting them. the other thing to compare him to past candidates who had evangelical support, he is well funded. he has more money in the bank than any other candidate in this race besides donald trump, in fact, more than all the other candidates he is competing with combined and he is organized in subsequent states. so this is not rick santorum over mike huckabee, win iowa and that's it. this is a guy who is poised to replicate what he just did with jeff roe and the others there, very methodically thinking about how to win enough delegates to be the nominee. >> except the -- he did use mike huckabee and rick santorum's playbook last night. that speech last night and i was watching his victory speech, i said, yeah, that's not going to play real well in new hampshire. >> off of what marco pointed out and nicolle pointed out, steve schmidt and i bumped into two operatives from the cruz campaign yesterday morning and they geographically outlined accurately where they were going to do well, surprisingly so, mississippi river towns, blue collar towns. it was striking watching the

results. >> they also knew the capacity of their model, it was 170,000 turn out, they knew if they hit the 60% on evangelicals, they knew to the decimal point what their model could handle. >> let's get to the democratic side. after a night of uncertainty it wasn't until 3:40 this morning that nbc news could call hillary clinton the apparent winner in iowa. >> fortunately for everybody else she called herself the winner at 7:30. >> she was not even the winner yet. >> seriously. there were 82% -- >> i'm getting to that. >> it was 50/50 and they declared themselves the winner. >> i defend her on this. >> i declared myself able to wake up at 10:30 this morning and still do my show at 6:00. >> a guy would declare himself the winner and nobody would have a problem with it because then he would become the winner. that's how it two. >> bold move. >> the iowa democratic party said the results are the closest

in the history of caucus. hillary clinton leads bernie sanders by five state delegate equivalents. in iowa the democrats don't show actual votes but report results in expected state convention delegates and that's the number you see beneath the candidates' names. as for the national delegates awarded out of iowa the total count at this hour is clinton 29, sanders 21. nbc news has allocated 22 delegates to clinton and 21 to sanders, one at large delegate has not been allocated and because clinton has the backing of seven of iowa's eight super delegates she gets that toeftel of 29. early this morning the clinton campaign released a statement unequivocally declaring victory saying there is, quote, no outstanding information that could change the results. if they say it must be true, right? meanwhile, last night as the votes were still being tallied clinton took the stage in des moines, flanked by her husband and daughter and declared victory.

>> what a night. an unbelievable night. what a great campaign. this has been an incredible honor to campaign across iowa with so many of you, to make the case for the kind of future we want, for the democratic party and for the united states of america. so as i stand here tonight breathing a big sigh of relief, thank you, iowa. i want you to know i will keep doing what i have done my entire life. i will keep standing up for you, i will keep fighting for you, i will always work to achieve the america that i believe in where the promise of that dream that we hold out to our children and our grandchildren never fades,

but inspires generations to come. join me, let's go win the nomination. thank you all and god bless you. >> bernie. bernie. bernie. bernie. >> iowa, thank you. nine months ago we came to this beautiful city and we had no political organization, we had no money, we had no name recognition and we were taking on the most powerful political organization in the united states of america.

and tonight while the results are still not known it looks like we are in a virtual tie. >> mark halperin, a virtual tie despite the fact when this campaign started bernie sanders was 40 points behind in iowa. >> and mocked and ridiculed and called names. >> just back in july clinton was beating him by 20 points in iowa. i must say you were one of the first people i heard say that sanders could win iowa and win new hampshire. a 50/50 split for sanders sure looks like a win from here. >> it does to me. look, hillary clinton can say all she wants that she won. i was really taken aback last night when they put out a statement with lots of the vote out saying we're certain we're going to win. there was no way they could know that. i don't think either side has incentive to call for a recount. she wants to declare her victory and sanders, i think, can come away with this in saying a tie

is a victory for me and not risk having her win validated. they come to new hampshire where he has a big lead and she has a devilish choice, she has to be here four days. she's going to have to deaf vote a lot of time to a state where i don't believe there is a chance at this point that she has much possibility of winning and so she's fighting to reduce the margin from maybe 12 down to 8. she would probably rather be in south carolina. >> probably. >> any of the other states where she's stronger. >> still ahead on "morning joe" the four republican governors in the race couldn't catch up to the fourth-place finisher? iowa even when you add up all of their support together. can the gop establishment expect to gain traction in new hampshire after last night's dismal showing. you're watching "morning joe." we will be right back.

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we will go on to get the republican nomination and we will go on to easily beat hillary or bernie or whoever the hell they throw up there. iowa, we love you. we thank you. you're special. we will be back many, many times. in fact, i think i might come here and buy a farm. i love it. okay? >> you know, during the course of this campaign people have asked heidi and me, are you tired? and i will admit it is 16, 18 hours a day, six, seven days a we week. we are not tired at all. >> boy. >> okay. so let's get through the actual numbers here. there is no denying the

unprecedented energy on the republican side of the race. the iowa republican party counted more than 108,000 caucus goers, about 60,000 more than the previous record set in 2012. >> that is amazing. >> that is. iowa knew it mattered. the top three finishers last night each received more votes than the previous record set in 2008, druz got nearly 52,000 votes, the most ever for a republican candidate. this is a big story, too, though. donald trump out of nowhere collected the second most ever with over 45,000, finishing with 24%. out of nowhere. never run a campaign. >> that is the sort of thing, nicolle, and, again -- so when we're telling people how extraordinary turn out was, that's the sort of thing if you told trump's campaign people in iowa, hey, listen, you give me a certain amount of money i will guarantee you 45,000. i'll take it. because that's a historic number. but again, it goes back to the

cruz turn out machine. >> and just their comments in the modeling. the trump got the turn out he needed he just didn't have the apparatus in place and he actually ended up splitting -- he did better among evangelicals than i think he even thought he would but he had to split them with rubio, the other than cruz vote was split more evenly between him and rubio than they anticipated. they got the turn out they needed, they just had to sigh officer off more of their support to rubio than anyone anticipated -- >> he did something that i bet surprised a lot of people, he made the turn successfully. he finished second but he made that turn successfully like a pro. >> it was humble, it was nice and i'm going to buy a farm here. >> it was what you guys always say and i think mark halperin was said this, that when he has a set back the reason he gets away with these gaffs that would sabotage any other candidacy is he adjusts quicker than you think. before you could could go on tv

and say huge disaster for trump he had gone on tv and given the most magnanimous speech of his candidacy. >> this was ted cruz's home field advantage. i mean -- but everyone was saying how is he -- i mean, this is a guy that got more votes than anybody else in the history of iowa presidential politics other than druz. okay? you put that on one side and then on the other side you put the same guy once $9 billion in debt. this guy has been in a hole before much, much deeper than this. even in his loss people underestimate donald trump. thinking he is going to go out there and scream. >> the question was been can he take a punch? what happens if the guy who has been ahead the whole fight against knocked and or stunned. he took a big punch last night and there were a lot of people

gleefully predicting this speech would be the beginning of his melt down, he was going to bark at iowa. everybody was watching to see how he handled it. it was concise, he thanked the people of iowa and said on to new hampshire. >> ben carson finished with 9%, senator rand paul with 4%, 2 points ahead of jeb bush whose campaigns and super pacs spent over $14 million in iowa. carly fiorina, governors john kasich, mike huckabee and chris christie at 2% each with rick santorum at 1%. >> mike barnicle, notice this, and this is how this year is so different. when you add up the support of all four current and former governors it equals almost the support of ben carson. the era -- and ben carson had a horrible night. the era of governors being presumptive favorites in presidential contests, over. >> yeah. it's surprising, too.

and a couple of them, chris christie, does speak that language that voters are looking for this year in terms of anxiety and fear and apprehension. >> right. >> but it's not -- it didn't register in iowa. new hampshire is going to be -- >> we'll see. >> the governors are doing very well in new hampshire right now. >> they are. caucuses are so different than an election. >> they are. >> this was fascinating. >> the coverage last night of the caucuses was kind of extraordinary. >> yeah. >> there was a clip of young people back and forth in a gym. >> it was amazing. >> it was really -- it was really interesting. >> somebody that's run four times -- >> you've heard it. >> i'm like who would do that? no. i mean, i remember one time i drove past a precinct and got out to shake hands and looked at the people and went, i'm getting back in the door. i don't want to see them election day, they're scaring me. >> they're doing better but trump and cruz are still way

ahead than everybody else. >> but not in new hampshire. >> trump is way ahead. >> trump 25 points ahead, cruz at 13, then you have kasich clumped up and bush clumped up and chris tee clumped up. >> and rubio is in there. >> rubio was fifth in the last poll we saw, that's going to be -- >> he's going to be third. >> -- the question. midweek, how high does rubio jump. >> the guys that have been waiting in new hampshire, ut putting their rest in that basket cannot have liked what rubio did last night because he rolls out of iowa with this alternate to cruz and trump narrative that does not bode well for them. >> for christie and for kasich, their backs against the wall, they all have to outperform marco or they go home. >> well, like a good newspaper man, mike barnicle has laid out like an assignment editor, there's so many story lines here now. one is the one you guys were talking about, which is those

three governors, chris tee, bush and kasich, they have to stop rubio and chris tee in particular i think is going to aggressively try to do that, that's a big story line. another is look at carson and rand paul, both of them got a pretty decent percentage of vote. as the cruz people point out, if those two guys quit the race or if their votes part to peter away because they didn't do well in iowa that's most likely a fair amount to go to cruz. then how does trump react? if you have three candidates is trump going to go after rubio now, is he going to keep going after cruz, is cruz going to go after trump, is he going to go after rubio and those three governors must stop rubio. new hampshire is going to be one of the biggest hottest stories, every news cycle is going to be an extraordinary match between still six candidates long they can be the nominee and have some argument that they can get to the finals at least. >> coming up on "morning joe," did senator lindsey graham pick the wrong horse in the race to win over the gop establishment? the south carolina republican

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you are back. the x1 voice remote is here. joe." mike barnicle and nicolle wallace are still with us along with sam stein in washington. joining the conversation we have former treasury official and

"morning joe" economic analyst steve rattner back from des moines and in manchester, new hampshire, managing editor of bloomberg politics john heilemann is with us once again. >> we have so much to break down. john heilemann, let's start with you this morning. the democratic side, we'll start there. was it a win for hillary clinton? was it a draw? what does momentum look like on the ground in new hampshire? >> well, joe, it's going to be something up here. you know, last night you had the sanders and clinton campaign planes, i flew out here from des moines with bernie sanders and his wife jane on the sanders plane. the sanders and clinton planes were practically side-by-side on the tarmac this morning at about 5:00 a.m., 4:30 a.m. in manchester. one plane deplaning while the other was deplaning the press buses particularly on a collision course.

it's so interesting because in many ways bernie sanders was not the candidate that hillary clinton was running against new hampshire would be home turf for the clintons. this is familiar territory for them, the place that propelled at the beginning bill clinton to the nomination in 1992, the place where hillary staged her great come back in 2008. they know this state, they have deep roots here, they understand the politics, they know this place block by block, precinct by precinct and yet, of course, bernie sanders as a neighboring state senator has all the advantages here. the lead in the polls. so the clintons will come in here underdogs and not by a little bit. i don't think that although -- the clinton campaign is well aware that they face an uphill fight here, i don't think that bill clinton or hillary clinton believes that they want to give up new hampshire without a fight. >> really? >> the sanders campaign expects a hard fought contest here and i think that the clinton campaign is probably going to try to give them one and see if they can

move the numbers in the first few days here and then by the time the weekend comes decide whether it's just lost and they should move on to south carolina. but at least for these first three or four days i think it's going to be hand to hand combat on the ground. >> steve rattner, as a clinton supporter was last night a win, a loss a draw? >> i think it was basically a draw. all this talk about resingts and precinct captains in the right place or this or that doesn't really matter. if either candidate had had a decisive victory it would have set a direction for where the democratic side was going, but i think this is pretty much a draw. in new hampshire it's a little like what you were talking about earlier this morning about trump, there is a little bit of an expectation situation. nobody expects hillary clinton to win in new hampshire, i think she has to give it a good fight as john heilemann was saying, but i don't think a loss changes anything. then you move on to the south where she has the organization, she has the support from the african-americans and so i think things are okay. >> so, sam, if going into last

night she was already down 20, 25, some polls suggest closer to 30 points, why not just head south? why not just head to nevada? why not skip a state that's bernie sanders' neighboring state? >> that's a good question. i think the best answer to that that i can conjure up is that she's trying to create this persona as someone who doesn't view the nominating process as, you know, a step by step calculated path for her. she wants to present herself to the party as a fighter and so for her to then subsequently skip out on new hampshire, a state that john notes has been a clinton, you know, stall worth, that will go against her message. i think she will try if she can try to move the needle and lower sanders' margin. sanders has inn can credibly high expectations in new hampshire, you could probably chip away at that. but, you know, there's also some troubling signs that she has to deal with off of iowa.

the democratic turn out was fairly good but it wasn't 2008 levels good, but predominantly all the young and new caucus goers appeared to be going to bernie sanders and that's not good for hillary clinton. secondly, i mean, the party establishment is all behind hillary clinton's point. she has real vulnerabilities whether it's on the political campaign front or potentially on her e-mail front that are making a lot of democrats nervous. so she needs to actually put together a more strong showing i think for the party establishment figures to feel a little more comfortable with this thing. >> yeah, i mean, looking at those pictures you would have -- if someone turned the tv on right now would say she won last night. >> well, i think, sam -- >> but she did. >> she's the apparent winner, just like mitt romney was the apparent winner of the iowa caucuses four years ago. >> the concerns that sam identified i think are all valid, the one that i've been thinking about that i assume she's thinking a lot about is assuming she gets the nomination you do have this dramatic

situation with the young voters and what they seem to be looking for and obviously the general election they are not going to vote for the republican but she's going to have to figure out some way to connect to them to bring out the turn out. she needs those young people to vote when we get to november. >> it depends who the republican is, obviously ronald reagan did extraordinary well with republicans. so it is -- it's definitely a vulnerability. >> well, senator elizabeth warren of massachusetts is someone that both bernie sanders and hillary clinton would love to get an endorsement from and she is feeling the pressure to get in the middle of the democratic -- feeling no pressure i should say, to get in the middle of this. at an event in springfield yesterday she told reporters no endorsements now. according to mass live asked if she is decide soon she added, quote, we'll see. the lone female democratic senator not backing clinton said i think that what the democrats are doing is terrific, we're talking about the issues, i look at the republican debates and the difference between what they're doing and what the democrats are doing, that really

shows who is on whose side. so nothing yet from elizabeth warn, i would think that would be something that would be really helpful to hillary clinton if she could get it. >> but, mike barnicle, elizabeth warn has to be thinking every day what if, what if. this was her year. >> she's not alone in thinking what if i would imagine, given the tone and tenor of the campaign. hillary clinton is a very strong candidate, no doubt about that, steve, you're right. she does have, though, a couple of weaknesses that she seems unable to deal with, the attraction -- the lack of attraction to younger voters and the fact that bernie sanders has captured a message for the disaffected democrats, largely middle class working people that hillary clinton's voice they don't hear that voice. and that's not going to go away. that's not going to diminish. it's a huge issue for her. >> i don't disagree. it's ironic that the theme songs for this group are songs that were written before any of them were born, when their parents

were ten years old. i do think at the end of this -- i understand the notion of other people coming in. i do think that her position is strong enough that that's not going to happen. i think she's going to be able to push her way through this. >> does she also have a problem with women? i thought the article was a revelation in that i understood the point about younger women. i wasn't as aware of the problem that she had among progressive women. i didn't realize that elizabeth was the only female senator who hadn't endorsed her. >> before we start talking about young voters are going to automatically go to hillary clinton, that's not the case. i mean, you look at marco rubio. >> right. >> rubio is up in a lot of these different areas which is why a lot of republicans voted for him last night, because they think he can beat hillary clinton. steve, let me ask you -- and i asked the question a couple hours ago -- hillary clinton, why would she go out and boldly declare in the middle -- in the top of the fifth inning that she won the world series when brian williams and nicolle and chuck

todd and everybody on every other channel said, no, that's not really true. they don't know. why would she do that? >> i can't -- >> okay. >> do you want to know when i stopped beating my wife? >> okay. >> look, we know there's an expectations game, a momentum game, there's obviously -- it was important for her to come out of iowa as a winner. >> but she -- okay. >> okay. >> john heilemann, that kind of is a question we have all been asking this morning and a lot of people were asking last night. the clintons always seem to muck things up a bit here where she talks about this great sense of relief she's feeling when everybody in the media is saying, wait, you haven't won. stop pretending like you have. >> yeah. look, i mean, i think obviously the mistake they made was briefing reporters and saying the things before her speech. her speech she was pretty careful not to claim victory. you could parse that speech, she

was obviously claiming a vind dags, she was claiming relief but didn't come out and say i won. it seemed like she was actually trying to hold back in the speech itself, however, the things that her aids and her allies had said to reporters prior to that were hugely problematic and i can tell you that in sanders' world where i was last night -- and i'm talking about among the candidate, his spouse, his closest aids, they were furious, furious with the fact that the clintons had done this before bernie sanders spoke. they were furious after bernie sanders spoke and to the extent they decide to go forward and maybe challenge these results i think part of it is a sense not just of frustration over the process, not just that they ultimately would like to be declared the winner there, if that's what the vote tales show, but also the fact that they were provoked in some ways by what the clintons did. what the clinton people did prior to any reasonable basis coming out and saying that she was the winner and there was no question she would be declared

such. it has only deepened the bad blood between these campaigns and that blood is getting badder and badder with every passing hour. >> sam stein, we all know the numbers out of iowa having looked at them last night and this morning, but there's a couple of other numbers that are critical in this campaign and there are 770,027. 770,000 is the number of people who contributed to bernie sanders at an average of $27 a pop and that really indicates a critical difference between these two campaigns. >> i'm really glad you explained the numbers because i thought you were going to ask me to do it. yes, bernie sanders -- this is -- i agree with you entirely. this is the best evidence yet that this is going to be a prolonged nomination battle. he has a contribution base that for -- just to put it bluntly -- hasn't tapped out. i mean, there are so many people, i think it was something like 99% of donors almost at one

point who had given to bernie sanders who were legally allowed to give again. if you just think about that, you know, that fundraising spigot is open, it will allow him to go to states where he doesn't necessarily have, you know, demographic advantages or institutional help and it really sustains his campaign. i do want to pivot just quickly back to nicolle's point about women voters. i do think it's interesting that they haven't gravitated to the clinton campaign as much as you would have expected it. they are not a month lit i can voting base. i do want to point out something historic happened last night. for the first time in our country's history a woman candidate won the iowa caucus. i think we should step back and say that is a pretty remarkable feet -- i mean, apparent winner of the iowa caucus. >> i was going to say, apparent winner. >> and i will say, you know, there are hurdles that women candidates do have to deal with that male candidates simply don't that don't go as acknowledged as they should. >> again, we a apparent. >> apparent. >> last night the clintons

declared victory, spiked the football on the five yard line going back four years ago if you look at the romney fight with, of course, rick santorum that went on for a very long time and here you have bernie sanders' campaign upset by what happened last night, now considering a challenge to it. so we don't know how it goes, but bottom line is people waking up this morning across america are going to see it as a draw and they can take from that what they will. >> all right. steve and john, say with us. still ahead lindsey graham stepped aside to clear the way for jeb bush to challenge the front runner. so far is it working? doesn't seem to be. >> it's early. >> the south carolina republican joins us next on "morning joe." ♪jake reese, "day to feel alive"♪ ♪jake reese, "day to feel alive"♪

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women and the coalitions we need to win. if you now make trump and cruz, i think you get the same outcome. you know, whether it's death by being shot or poisoning, does it really matter? >> well, last night, i don't know, we will have to ask whether cruz is being shot or poisoned. >> okay. after last night's first and second place results our next guest has a problem, that's the problem. joining us from manchester, new hampshire, republican senator lindsey graham of something who has endorsed jeb bush for president. can we just take a second and start right there? because how did this happen with jeb? we've interviewed him many times, he's really -- >> i will be honest with you how in any contest jeb bush doesn't get at least 10%. one out of ten republican voters just tells you how strange this year is. lindsey graham, last night's results even by iowa standers

pretty shocking for jeb. >> yeah. are y'all talking to me? i can barely hear you. >> we are. we're wondering how this happened with jeb. i don't agree with him but i have interviewed him many times. he should be far higher up than he is. what happened? >> well, you know, john mccain tied for fourth out of six people and still won new hampshire, so i think jeb will do very well here because he's got a ground game. you know, ted cruz -- hats off to ted, it is amazing what he did in terms of turn out. i think the story after new hampshire will be the bush ground game and the bush political organization. let me tell you about polling. i got knocked out of the main stage because of these pollsters. i want my money back. this is ridiculous. these are the guys that were telling who should be in the debate? please. >> mike barnicle. >> senator graham, let me ask you about the winner of last night's iowa caucus on your side of the aisle, senator cruz.

>> yeah. >> if he were to win the nomination, the republican party's nomination, what would be your estimates of his chances in the fall against a democrat, any democrat? >> one in ten. the problem we have as republicans is that we're losing the largest and fastest growing demographic, hispanics, and when you ask them after 2012 why they don't like the republican party it's the immigration issue and the way we handled it. so ted was for legalization, no matter what he tells you, and now he says he wasn't. so he's going further right on immigration, he doesn't have an exception for rape and invest, if a woman is rained in ted cruz's world she is going to have to carry the baby of the rapist. i'm pro life but i won't go there. i think that's hard to sell with young women. i think his position on immigration is completely out of synch with where the party needs to be and he will get creamed. the only person who would do

worse than ted is trump. if you vote for trump as a republican you're buying a ticket on the titan nick after you saw the movie. don't do that. >> so in realtime today in new hampshire what would be a good outcome for your candidate, jeb bush, in new hampshire? >> to win his lane. marco did well in eye warnings i like marco, but he has now turned hard right. he has abandoned the bill he worked with on me, in the last debate he sounded more like cruz on immigration, that's disappointing because that will come back to bite us as a party. and marco has no exceptions for rape and invest. i may be wrong and i hope i'm wrong but i think it's going to be hard to grow the party among women if you get raped if you have to carry the child of the rapist. most pro life people don't go there. that's not going to sell in new hampshire. the thing i like about jeb, he's

steady and has a backbone and is not giving in on immigration and i think over time that will matter in new hampshire. >> senator, i agree with you and i hope you're right, but it looks to me like this morning your colleague, senator scott, came out, endorsed marco rubio and expressed what a lot of people will only say privately, that marco rubio may be the establishment's best shot and best shot for someone who shares your world view, which is an aggressive and an interventionist foreign policy. are you at all concerned about the bush campaign aggressively taking on what may be the establishment's best shot? >> i like -- well, tim will help mar marco, on foreign policy he has been good for the most part and has the world view i share. let me just say this, immigration haunts this party. he tried to fix a broken immigration system in an ear rational way, now he has backed

off. to think that's not going to matter in the general election you're kidding yourself. i hope i'm wrong about the abortion issue, it's going to be hard to sell to young women marco's position on abortion. i don't know how this movie ends but with women and hispanics we are going in the wrong direction in my view and jeb bush will beat hillary clinton and i think he's becoming the only person who can beat hillary clinton. >> senator lindsey graham always good to have you on the show shoe very much. still ahead, how marco rubio's third place showing allows him to pivot on two fronts, messaging and money. "the new york times" jeremy peters has new reporting on that, he joins us straight ahead on "morning joe." ahh... you probably say it a million times a day. ahh... ahh! ahh... ahh! but at cigna, we want to help everyone say it once a year. say "ahh". >>ahh... cigna medical plans cover one hundred percent of your in-network annual checkup.

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still ahead, three hours is just not enough, isn't it, rattner? nicolle, come on. you love it. all right. we're going to go an extra hour this morning. up next eugene robinson, steve kornacki -- oh, my god, is he still awake? yeah, they join us. they were up until the wee hours yesterday, we will see if they are just as punchy as nicolle and andrea were this morning. our sleep deprived political panelists straight ahead on "morning joe." the truth will come out. and it affects each and every one of us. microsoft created the digital crimes unit to fight cyber-crime. we use the microsoft cloud to visualize information so we can track down the criminals.

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cousin tobias get his privacy? hey - shut the blanket! i need my privacy! (vo) don't be a settler. get a $100 visa prepaid card when you switch to directv. tonight while the results are still not known, it looks like we are in a virtual tie. >> so as i stand here tonight, breathing a big sigh of relief, thank you, iowa. >> we had no political organization. we had no money. we had no name recognition and we were taking on the most powerful political organization in the united states of america. >> my young, organizers, with energy and passion. >> now, i have been