now it's on to the next one. i don't think it's all doom and gloom. >> thank you very much. glenn thrush, author of some tough but fair morning-after coverage of the clinton effort in iowa and looking forward to new hampshire as well. thank you, gentleman, both very much. and now it is time to go to our friend, chuck todd. "meet the press daily" about to begin. the 5:00 hour on the east coast. chuck, take it what e. it's no ordinary tuesday. it's one week now until the new hampshire primary, and the pressure is on so now candidates, seven days is always a lifetime in politics, but in new hampshire, it is that and more. particularly for donald trump. but there's just as much pressure on the establishment to find their alternative, who they think can stop trump or cruz. this is "mtp daily" and it starts right now.

wow! it's not even been 24 hours since iowa, and it feels as if it were a lifetime ago, but what a result and what an impact. good evening and welcome to this day-after iowa "mtp daily." the iowa aftershocks are being felt all the way to new hampshire and then some. so let's get right to tonight's take. the hawkeye state delivered the must-wins for hillary clinton, barely, and ted cruz, in a big way. but as we move to new hampshire, the pressure shifts to different candidates to succeed. bernie sanders and donald trump. they both came close in iowa, but expectations are much higher for both of them in the granite state. regardless, both parties made history last night. let's start with the republican side of the race. it's a little bit cleaner to explain. remember, if republican turnout was high, the so-called

conventional wisdom, all of us polling wise guys told you, trump was expected to win iowa. well, republicans got their high turnout. they shattered their turnout record. and trump barely held on to second place. cruz's win came after not only a direct battering from trump, over his trustworthiness, personality, even his eligibility to be president, but he also had to face the anti-endorsement from iowa's governor, terry branstad, and an emerging alliance among establishment figures who desperately wanted to cut off cruz's momentum. and of course, this victory for cruz also means he defied the polling. even the so-called gold standard, "des moines register"/bloomberg poll, they had trump leading in the final days. now the narrative is that nothing is inevitable, especially for the big guy, donald trump. >> how do you plan to win there when donald trump is doing so well in the polls? >> well, with you know, polls have a way of changing. >> reporter: for months, they told us, because we offered too much optimism in a time of

anger, we had no chance. the people of this great state have sent a very clear message. >> now we can stop with the donald trump inevitability, right? because the guy who does nothing but win lost last night. >> and by the way, on the polling, i can tell you in our own marist polling before we jump to that new hampshire poll we just popped up, in our own marist polling, if you look at the entrance poll, for those voters who made their decision before the last week, trump led the field, 33%, cruz, 28. that basically matches our marist poll that was done one week out. it was in the last week that everything shifted, particularly for rubio and cruz. now, moving to new hampshire, trump still holds an 18-point lead over the field. he's expected to receive an endorsement from a former new hampshire senate candidate and former massachusetts senator, it's the same person, scott brown. that will happen later tonight. but of course, seven days is always an eternity in between iowa and new hampshire. this poll doesn't include any of

the so-called momentum that we saw rip through iowa last night, and the strong third place finish from marco rubio. after the late surge pressure is on for rubio to do his three-two-one strategy, even though they deny that that's their strategy. he does need to finish second in new hampshire, to keep this three-way race alive, and totally eliminate the rest of these governors and the establishment lane forhimself. as for the democrats, wow, who knew they would steal the story line last night, but boy, did they. the establishment candidate is the apparent winner. and that's where their bit of history comes in. they came nowhere near 2008's turnout level, but the razor-thin margin between clinton and sanders was the closest in the 44-year history of the iowa caucuses. move over, dick gephardt and paul simon. clinton's narrow victory still may feel like a loss for the campaign. for one, there's already controversy surrounding the iowa democratic party's mismanagement of the caucus system and the counting process.

the sanders' campaign claims that 90 precincts -- that's about 5% of the results in the state were not collected properly and sanders himself still won't rule out challenging the results. >> i honestly don't know what happened. i know there was some, um, there were some precincts that, i think have still not reported. so your guess is as good as mine, as to what happened. i can only hope and expect that the count will be honest. i can't say more than that. >> by the way, we are in that new phase of the presidential campaign, where we're going to see a lot of candidates having to yell over airplane noise. meanwhile, remember, winning by just a fraction of a percentage point blunts the edge she needed going into new hampshire. sanders' still has a huge lead in the granite state. cnn put out a poll today, showing sanders with a 23-point lead over clinton. most of the polls have shown it anywhere from 19 to 30. it's a win in iowa, but too

close for comfort for clinton. "new york times" reports that there have already been discussions underway among her outside advisers. by the way, when you see the phrase, "outside adviser advise know some people cringe. and there are some donors who want to talk about the need to bring in longtime clinton aides. boy, that happened after 2008 in the first couple of states. but the muted win for clinton does not translate to a victory for sanders. sanders needed to take away the same way senator obama did in 2008, decisively enough to transform, perhaps, the rest of the primary fight. entrance polling showed some factors both candidates still need to deal with and confront as they move on. look at ideology. among those who identify just simply as democrats, boy, clinton ran up the score. 56% backed her, just 39% supported sanders. but among those who identified as independent, 26% supported clinton, 69% supported sanders. among caucusgoers who said this was their first caucus, 59%

supported sanders and among those who have caucused before, 59 supported clinton. sanders had the youth vote by a wide margin. 84% supported him while only 14% supported clinton. those over the age of 65, 69% supported clinton, just 26 supported sanders. so how does clinton plan to overcome that youth vote gap? here's what she told "hardball's" chris matthews today that electability is the ticket with those folks. >> i want folks to stop and think, no matter what age you are, okay, we agree on getting the economy going. we agree on raising incomes, we agree on combatting climate change. we agree on universal coverage. who has the track record, who's gotten the results? who can actually produce the kind of change you want for yourself and your family and for our country? >> clinton says she's relishing the win, but some are calling the way she won and how they

handled, frankly, last night, a bit of a disaster. michael nasky at the daily beast notes that clinton's speech wasn't a victory speech and certainly wasn't a concession speech. and why did she come out so early? it's noticeably odd and does it signal disorganization on the campaign and changes to come? joining me now, joel benenson, joel, happy new hampshire -- the one week from new hampshire. how are you, sir? >> i'm well. how are you? >> i'm tired, probably the same way you are. >> yes. >> let's start with what happened last night. why did the clinton campaign decide to declare victory all on their own when all of us, who are actually tracking the numbers, realize that it was way too close to call in order to declare victory as early as you were attempting to do? >> well, you know, the campaigns each gather their own data, as well, from the caucuses that are coming the. as you know, from looking back at last night, almost nothing has changed. in fact, not a business has

changed since the time we went, other than the fact that -- >> joel, not a bit has changed -- >> chuck, can i finish my answer? >> you guys had about a three percentage point lead when you declared victory. i'll give you that. we didn't -- we saw it shrinking, and then it shrunk to three delegates! >> in terms of the state delegate margin and the national delegate margin, we were at 22, 21 when we went out. we ended the night at 23, 21 in terms of national delegates. that happens to be the currency of these caucuses. you win the caucus, if you have the most delegates going to the democratic convention with you, and that's why we won the caucuses. we went out last night at the moment we knew from our data that we had gotten to that point. we knew that senator sanders couldn't catch us, and it was very close. there was no question. it was a hard-fought campaign. we felt very comfortable. it's been declared today, i think everybody's pretty much declared it this afternoon. but we were very confident in the numbers we had. >> fair enough and it turned out

you were right. but you would have had a little egg on your face, because as you know, you declared before a correction came in, and there was a pretty large correction out of dallas county that ended up all of a sudden closing the gap and that was, i'm guessing, something you guys didn't account for at the time. >> no, actually, we looked at things where we knew there was some discussion going on and looked at what the margins were and whether this would change the fact that at the end o. night, we would end up with more committed state delegate equivalents and more national delegates. and we knew at that point that that's where we were. so, you know, we can go back, we're in new hampshire now, we're going to have a, i'm sure, a very strong campaign and vigorous campaign this week. that's what it's been all the way through. and that's what we're focused on. the people of new hampshire here don't want to litigate who won the iowa caucuses. they know hillary clinton won them. and we're here now to try to win new hampshire. >> i'm looking forward, not to saying the phrase, state

delegate equivalence. >> so am i. it's a bit of a tongue twister. >> let me ask you about michael tomasky's criticism about a missing campaign message. you hear the whispers and probably see the critiques that there is just something that a central message is missing in the campaign. do you agree with the criticism? >> absolutely not. look we was went into iowa, the first contested state. we've been campaigning there for six months. we heard the sanders campaign tell people they were going to win. at one point, they said they had to win. a couple of weeks ago, they still predicted they were going to win. and if they got a turnout over 170,000, that would be their night. well, we did get over 170,000. that was good, there was a lot of enthusiasm and a lot of energy that we heard about all the way through. and it turns out there was a lot of enthusiasm and energy for hillary clinton's message for making a difference in real people's lives. being a progressive who actually gets things done. and that's what people want

right now in america and i think that's what democrats want as well. they want a president who's going to make a difference in their lives and be able to make a difference in real progress right now. >> let's talk about this generational divide p. i mean, it is stark. 84-14. you guy are strong among seniors. >> well, not chump change -- >> i hate to -- >> go ahead. >> we won all voters over 45. so, you're talking just about seniors, the youth vote you're talking about, i believe it was about 18% based on the entrance polls. very commanding lead, no question, for senator sanders, that a very vigorous campaign targeted young voters, getting new caucusgoers out. they did what they had to do with that group, getting people to the polls. it didn't make them prevail last night. look, we'll keep trying to appeal to these younger voters. we believe that we've got a set of plans that are going to benefit them more than senator sanders, whether they're a young person just out of college with debt, struggling to pay down that debt, whether you're a couple of young parents trying

to raise your kids at the same time, we believe we've got better plans to get paid family leave, to pay down college debt. and we're going to keep appealing to those folks. >> joel, i'm going to leave it there and i promise i think i'm coming to new hampshire tonight. i'll see you guys there probably some time tomorrow. >> all right, see you. >> thank you, sir. >> now let's turn to the sanders' campaign. jeff weavers is the sanders' campaign manager. jeff, i assume you're as punchy as the rest of us are after another sleepless night? >> absolutely, chuck. absolutely. >> all right, let me start with iowa. are you going to contest the result? >> it's not about contesting the results, chuck. look, it was a very, very close election, as everybody knows. a few state delegate equivalents, as you could say, out of 1,400. a fraction, a fraction of 1%. you know, it may well be that it will turn out that the margin of difference in this iowa contest came down through a series of coin flips at a bunch of tied precincts. that may be what it comes down

to. but there are a few questions hanging out there that eld with like to get answered. i think we owe it to the people who supported senator sanders in iowa to make sure we understand all the facts. >> is there another delegate at stake? a national delegate that would be at stake if you successfully won a challenge to the result? >> well, let's get one thing clear. i mean, what people elected last night were precinct delegates. they're going to go to a series of conventions, as you know, and the number of delegates will be determined -- that's an estimate of delegates. the actual number determined will be determined in june. >> right now, not a single -- fair to say, the only delegate you could assign to clinton right now are probably the super delegates. and even that, that's just an endorsement. >> yeah, right. exactly. >> all right. let me move on, though, to what we learned in the entrance poll. obviously, you had some good numbers with young voters. you had good numbers in groups like, those who cared about the candidate being honest and trustworthy, who has more liberal policies, but the places

that hillary clinton defeated you are places that may become problematic down the road. the candidate who can win in november. she got 77%. the candidate that they think will best continue obama policy, 68%. both of those seem to me that you've got to be able to find answers to that with your campaign to convince those voters that you're electable. >> well, chuck, look, i think where we're going to see what we saw in iowa, i think if you look at those entrance polls if terms of which candidate does better with independents, i think we're also going to see that in new hampshire next week, which candidate does better with independents. that's really the key to who can be elected in the general election. the fact of the matter is that independents are very, very reluctant to support secretary clinton, and without independents in the fall, she just can't win. that's really just the truth of it. and it's going to not only hurt her election, but everybody else up and down the ticket. >> all right, iowa was the burden of expectations was on her. thanks to polling in new hampshire, the burden's on you. isn't that fair to say? you guys have -- you guys have led all polling in new hampshire, arguably, for months.

so how big of a win do you need? >> well, you know, we're working very hard. the senator is actually at an event right now. we had a big rally here with 300 people at 5:00 this morning. i know you probably played it on nbc and msnbc. we're working very hard. we have been ahead here, and we plan to win here. >> where's the next state that you break out? if you look at, iowa is important to barack obama, because there was an african-american candidate who won basically with an all-white electorate. it sent a signal. where can you win in a diverse electorate to send a signal that you can appeal to african-americans? where is the state with a diverse electorate that you can break through? >> well, i think the next state for democrats, the next state after new hampshire is nevada. which has a large latino population. we're going to do extremely well there. i think we're going to beat expectations there by a lot. and then we're going to go on and fight in south carolina. and we're going to talk about issues of importance to

african-americans. you know, criminal justice reform, dealing with institutional racism, creating jobs, and opportunities for all americans >> when you say "exceed expectations" in nevada, do you think that means you can win? >> we'll see, chuck. >> all right, jeff weaver, i'll let you go on that one now. we'll beat you up more later. get some rest. >> all right, sir. up next, the republicans ride into new hampshire on groundhog day. has the trump campaign seen its political shadow? meantime, chris christie predicts a thaw for his campaign in new hampshire. all eyes are on the establishment lane as we move towards next week's primary. we're going to break it all down, right ahead on "mtp daily."

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all right. money time. one week to go before new hampshire's first in the nation primary, and here's the spending race when it comes to campaign ads in new hampshire. it has now crossed the $100 million mark, thanks to that

expensive boston media market. four of the so-called republican establishment candidates account for the vast majority of that spending. jeb bush and his super pac backing him are the biggest overall new hampshire spenders. shelling out nearly $34 million. rubio's team has spent over $16 million. team christie, more than $14 million, and kasich's team, just over $12 million. look at all that. add that all up and you've got more than $77 million spent by those establishment republican candidates on the airwaves in new hampshire. and who's the candidate who has spent the very least in the state? ted cruz, the winner of the iowa caucuses. he has spent less than $400,000 on ads in new hampshire. on the democratic side, bernie sanders is out-spending clinton by nearly double. we'll see if clinton decides to match him, dollar for dollar or even outspend him in this final week. up next, a look at where exactly in new hampshire candidates should be spending their time and money if they want to win. that's all coming up right here on "mtp daily." disease is tough,

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but you can't forget the local dynamics everywhere. nobody from the state border in new hampshire has ever lost a democratic primary to a non-incumbent president. >> bill clinton has fixed his little piece of trivia there. the first time he said it, kornacki, our buddy kornacki here was able to fact check him and remind him that ted kennedy did lose the new hampshire primary to jimmy carter, so bill clinton there just corrected it. he's playing a little expectations game. he was speaking, of course, to our own andrea mitchell after a rally today in new hampshire. and with the latest u mass tracking poll out of the granite state showing sanders with a 33-point lead over hillary clinton, sanders was fighting against expectations on turf that borders his home state of vermont. but how much can clinton hope to chip away in that big lead and where exactly can she do it? well, there's some good news, southeast done this before. joining me now is my own steve kornacki. steve, there is a blueprint for her to do this, and to come back

from a double-digit deficit going from iowa to new hampshire. >> yeah, you're looking at it right here. this is the 2008 map in new hampshire, clinton versus obama. clinton ended up winning this by a couple of points. if you're looking for the keys for hillary clinton, and for that matter, for bernie sanders, a couple of areas stick out, right here. this is hillsborough county and this is rockingham county. together, these account for about 58% of the state. hillsborough was clinton's best county in the state. this is the area around nashua. she got her largest plurality, by far, in this county in 2008. the challenge, and this is a bellwether county, since 1968, this county has always been with the winner in the democratic race. the flip side of this is, when you talk about the next-door neighbor advantage that bernie sanders has, it's in these three counties right here, along the connecticut river, along the vermont border. they kind of call this vermont east. to the extent new hampshire has become more of a blue state over the last generation, it's really coming from this part of the state. if you look at it this way, if

you go back to 2004, howard dean was able the to carry three counties in new hampshire. he won right along the connecticut river valley. barack obama was able to expand that, he was able to win two more counties in 2008. the challenge for bernie sanders, can he extend it further into hillsborough? the strongest county for hillary clinton in 2008? >> steve, let's reverse it. so hillary clinton needs to cut in. she obviously -- it means overperforming in suburban. what's interesting, we're starting to see clinton and sanders look a little bit like obama/clinton, where she can -- and there are some good blue-collar counties for her. the working class counties that she could potentially overperform in, and the way she caught, for instance, obama in pennsylvania and obama in new hampshire. >> yeah, that's -- >> that would happen, how? >> first of all, you look at the -- well, should have the -- there you go. the north country, the top of the state here, basically, the number of college-educated voters here is much lower, there's a much higher

native-born population here. this is where hillary clinton did very well and her husband did very well here when he ran before, not a lot of votes there. berlin is the biggest city there. she could do well there. you could also talk about the lakes region around the central part of the state. this was a strong area for hillary clinton in 2008. she could potentially get an advantage there as well. and like we said, you look down to the south, these are big communities down here where she was performing well. >> let's move to the republicans. >> sure, take a look at this. this is the last competitive republican primary. orange versus purple here, at of orange, mitt romney, next-door neighbor. it was kind of a runaway here. we don't learn too much, except keep in mind, the north country here was big for ron paul. but it's these two counties, again. it's hillsborough and rockingham county, again, half the republican vote, but really, look at rockingham. rockingham, when people say that new hampshire, there's this misperception about new hampshire, they say it's become blue over the last generation, because people from massachusetts moved up. liberals from massachusetts making new hampshire liberal. a lot of people from

massachusetts moving up to rockingham county, but they want to get away from the taxes in massachusetts. they want to move to tax-free southern new hampshire. that's where they live. this was by far mitt romney's best county -- >> the pattern for mitt romney in 2012, whatever county obama carried in the presidential against mccain in '08, usually was a county romney could carry in the primary in 2012. i assume that's the rubio path? >> this is it. it's rockingham county. you are looking in the primary of mitt romney getting in these border towns, 55, 57, 58% of the vote. when you get to the western part to have the state, that's where huntsman was doing really well and ron paul was doing really well. >> my guess is we'll see rubio spend a lot of time on that bottom border. let's stay on the republican side of the race. the so-called establishment candidates, they're ready to pounce on marco rubio's potential newfound surge or they're currently afraid of it.

and chris christie is already going after rubio and he did so earlier today. >> so when senator rubio gets here, i hope you guys ask him some questions. >> because it's time for him to start answering questions. he wants to say this race is over and it's all him, seems to me he should have to sit across from you and answer yours questions like i do. and you. and you. >> joining us now from new hampshire is our own kelly o'donnell. she had a chance to sit down with christie ahead of his umpteenth town hall today. kelly, how'd he do? what'd you learn? you've covered this guy for years. is it the same guy you've seen in new jersey? >> reporter: in many ways, he is. i was with him last night, too, when iowans were casting their votes and meeting to caucus. he was doing a town hall here in nashua. then today, we spent some time on his campaign bus, a get-out-the-vote event and of course another town hall. he was more rested, perhaps, and all ready to turn the page to new hampshire, saying that he

didn't ever really expect to play very well in iowa. different kind of state for him. but here he thinks the executive experience, being a decision maker, being ready to take any question from voters, from voters, being willing to mix it up is something that can really help him. we had a long conversation on his bus about all kinds of things, taking on marco rubio was one of the first things on his mind. also talking about donald trump, not being so much of a winner anymore, and that that bragging point that trump has used early on seems different now that he didn't win in iowa. and may affect how things go here in new hampshire. so, governor kasich of ohio is certainly a key rival and marco rubio, who might get some of the glow and momentum of an iowa in third place, the money that comes with it after already being a strong fund-raiser, so in my time with christie, he was very much vintage christie, coming up with that boy in the bubble shot, saying he hasn't been answering the same number

of questions in a spontaneous way. doing interviews, a guest on many shows and doing many interviews. but christie is already trying to take the challenge to the, you know, this wing of the party to say, look at me, i'm still here. >> well, kelly, i would like to throw to a bite of your interview. he does almost -- interviews with almost everybody that covers politics. let's take a listen. >> the fact is that if you don't do well here, it becomes more difficult for you to raise money. more difficult to gather more supporters, no matter where you go. because people know that new hampshire has had a very good record of picking presidents. they pick nominees fairly well. and you'll get their track record. they've done very well at that over the course of time. so what happens here really gives people a sense of whether you're viable or not. so, you know, it's going to be important for me to do well. >> we'll see. this is going to be interesting, what happens if, if he can catch rubio, because rubio may end up surpassing these guys pretty

quickly. >> reporter: well, momentum is so important, and so christie, knowing that, is trying to slow him down a bit with the kind of comments today. and i think it will be interesting to get at that over the days to come. thanks, chuck. >> kelly o'donnell, thanks very much. let me turn now to former thn republican governor and a former state chair of the party, john s sunnini. what did you see last night in iowa? what did you make of the contest last night? >> i saw two winners, one was cruz and one was rubio. and the other situation that was very clear was that trump was a loser. and i think that's going to play as a theme in new hampshire. i think the voters will take another look at trump. he's been trying to sell himself

as invincible, and having lost last night, i think folks will look at his record a little more deeply and frankly, they're going to see that there's a whole line of losses, including his four major bankruptcies. the bankruptcy of trump airline, the bankruptcy of trump mortgage, the bankruptcy of trump university, the vodka line. he has a whole host of failures, and i think that cracks the image he was trying to create. and i think that makes voters here pay more attention to the other candidates. >> i was going to say, while it's fair to say, you haven't endorsed anybody, there's one candidate you don't plan on supporting, and that's donald trump. >> probably two. >> so a second candidate besides trump? >> i really do think that either donald trump or senator cruz are going to create problems for the party in the general election. and i think i lean towards what i call the traditional candidates, the christie, the jeb bush, the kasich, or the

rubio. i think the country needs somebody that knows how to get things done, and those guys have demonstrated they do. >> let me ask you something. i know you're close with the bush family. i know you just wrote a book about president george h.w. bush, that was done very fondly. his son, just spent $14 million in the state of iowa, beat the living daylights out of marco rubio, most of the money was spent attacking marco rubio. jeb bush got 3%. $14 million, he's going to get one delegate out of there. at what point does he do damage to the -- to the potential of you getting a candidate that you want, that you think is a electable? >> well, i think that's a decision that each of those four traditional candidates have to make for themselves. it's the hardest kind of a decision to make. in some sense, they almost have to look each other in the eye and kind of send subliminal messages amongst themselves and come to some kind of a

consensus. and it's got to happen relatively soon. not new hampshire, it won't happen here. and it probably won't happen until after south carolina. and then you go to march 1st, and there's, i think, a dozen primaries on march 1st. it's got to happen somewhere between south carolina and those primaries, i think. >> are you -- are you disappointed with the tone of the campaign, between, say, bush, kasich, christie and rubio? the four of them have been really throwing it at each other. >> yeah, i really, if i stand back, looking at strategy, i don't know why they're wasting money attacking the smaller piece of pie that they occupy. i would be challenging the cruz/trump piece of pie. and i think they should be standing up, toe-to-toe with those guys and they would be better off spending their money there. >> do you think it shows a lack of toughness when they don't do that? >> you know, i think it just shows a lack of good strategy. and unfortunately, the lack of good strategy appears to the public as being a lack of

toughness. >> governor sununu, you never pull any punches, i appreciate it. thank you, sir. see you up in new hampshire. up next, we're going to get into the numbers game. we're going to explain why the polls appear to get it wrong in iowa and what to look for in the contests ahead. plus, from here to new hampshire, we'll explain why one week is an eternity in this rocky race for the white house. welcome to opportunity's knocking, where self-proclaimed financial superstars pitch you investment opportunities. i've got a fantastic deal for you- gold! with the right pool of investors, there's a lot of money to be made. but first, investors must ask the right questions and use the smartcheck challenge to make the right decisions. you're not even registered; i'm done with you! i can...i can... savvy investors check their financial pro's background by visiting smartcheck.gov whyto learn, right?e? so you can get a good job and you're not working for peanuts. well what if i told you that peanuts can work for you?

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we have much more tonight on what's ahead in new hampshire, one week from the primary. but first, let's talk to hampton pearson and see how the markets reacted to last night. >> hey, chuck. well, we had a steep sell-off for stocks. the dow sliding 295 points. the s&p down by 36, the nasdaq sinks by 103 points. yahoo! shares are lower after-hours. revenue was better than estimates, while earnings were in line, as expected. the company, however, announcing it's cutting 15% of its workforce. and chipotle is out with

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well, the good news is they say the only poll that matters is the one that happens on election day, and last night in iowa, that, of course, proved to be true. our nbc news wall street marist poll had donald trump up seven points, just days before the caucuses with marco rubio in third place, but moving up at 18%. "the des moines registe register"/bloomberg politics poll also had trump up. they had him up five points ahead of cruz, with rubio at 15. the order, they had trump, cruz, rubio. we had trump, cruz, rubio. as you know, here's what really

happened. cruz finished on top of 20%. trump finished second with 24%. rubio close behind with 23%. is this a polling failure or is this the case is that sometimes votes do move at last minute. joining me now, bill mcentire, one-half of our bipartisan nbc news/"wall street journal" national polling team. our folks at marist have already done the numbers. for people that basically, according to the entrance poll, if you re-weight it, and eliminate folks that made up their mind in the last week, trump was ahead, among those voters that had made up their mind before the last week. so, it sounds like it's a case where the polls could have been right and the results are also correct. >> yeah, you know, 35% of the people said they made up their mind the last few days and rubio had very strong numbers of those people. it's hard to believe, if you watch "mtp daily," but 15% of these people said they made up their mind the day they showed

up. this happens in fluid republican primaries. and by the way, this is a foreshadow of what's going to happen in new hampshire. i've done daily tracking there in three different races, and it can change wildly, day to day. and here's the other thing i would say. the people who knew it was coming was cruz. he shifted his last meeting against rubio, and rubio knew he was coming up. he stayed in the state, doubled down and doubled his money. the two people had their own competent polling operations, clearly were on track on both of these trends. >> probably my favorite part of the exit poll is something that i know you guys, particularly you and your partner, neil newhouse, always select to emphasize when it comes to, what does it take to win a republican primary? is it, you know, do you have to dominate among very conservative, the somewhat conservative, or that moderate lane? and what we saw last night in iowa, bill, i'm going to put up some numbers. among those republicans that identified as very conservative, cruz won those folks. i believe he won them by a pretty decent chunk. let me put up the numbers here very quickly here. cruz won 44% of those.

among those who identified as somewhat conservative, well, that was marco rubio territory. rubio narrowly won those, but he was ahead there with 29% to trump's 24%. interestingly, among those that are self-described moderates, it was donald trump who won those folks, 34%. bill, is that the three lanes that we're going to see march through the rest of this primary season? >> no. i don't think so. but i think it's trouble for donald trump. donald trump had been running sort of parallel, across ideology, and he's going to get squished in new hampshire. this is a sign that he was unable to hold very conservative voters, and he's going to get squished in new hampshire among moderates with all those four other candidates, christie, rub rubio, bush, and i think he could get squeezed in both directions. and my presumption is, in the next week, we're going to see trump dropping from the mid-30s to something like mid- to higher 20s. and in what will become a very, very competitive campaign.

so i took those numbers to be a donald trump warning sign for what's ahead and some of the troubles in his candidacy. >> do you still believe with this republican electorate that in order to win the nomination, you got to be the candidate of the somewhat conservative lane or is the very conservative group growing now and that that is something cruz could hold and win the nomination with? >> oh, no. i -- generally, i look at somewhat conservatives. the very conservative number in iowa is unusual, because it's so high evangelical. it's 62%. that's not going to happen. a lot of other states in republican primary. i like to look at somewhat conservatives, but they've got to be combined with the very conservative in total. you cannot win a republican nomination believing that you're going to capture moderate voters. it simply is not going to happen at a national level across multiple primaries. and so you've got to have a center-right, stable coalition to win this nomination.

>> well, it was interesting. marco rubio, the first one to show signs of that. is it going to be something we see in new hampshire, too? bill mcinturff, thanks for helping us watch this. we'll hold you to your prediction. you have trump in the mid-20s by the end of the week. >> mid- to late 20s. >> we'll bring you back on friday and hold you to it. thank you, bill. >> thank you. after the break, it's the ws, including speaker ryan in the oval office for the first time as speaker. keep it here. gets grilled, baked, and paired with even more lobster? you get hungry. and you count the seconds until red lobster's lobsterfest is back with the largest variety of lobster dishes of the year. like new dueling lobster tails with one tail stuffed with crab, and the other with langostino lobster mac-and-cheese, it's a party on a plate! and you know every bite of 'lobster lover's dream' lives up to its name. hey, eating is believing. so stop dreaming and start eating.

history is being made in in 2016 race. it happened last night. not a lot of people talked about it. ted cruz is now the first-ever hispanic american candidate to win a presidential contest. back in 2008, bill richardson did win some state delegates in iowa, but didn't win a single national delegate. meantime, bernie sanders may be on his way to winning more delegates than any other jewish presidential candidate in history. the last viable jewish presidential contender was joe lieberman in 2004. he came in fourth in the new hampshire primary. he did not pick up any delegates. the last jewish presidential candidates to do that was in 1976. milton schlapp. he got two delegates coming in ninth in the massachusetts primary. stay tuned. see, a little history. there's one to grow on. we'll be right back.

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. quick run to the wzs. eric holder, star of hillary clinton tv ad that ears this week. now to the what. trump trolling from nebraska, real policy and executive power questions, or exit the race. the where is the oval office, that's where speaker ryan met with president obama for the first time as speaker. the when, spring, it will come early. so says the groundhog poster. pu phil. now with the why. elijiah kupgss will not seek another seat in the house. would he have had a good shot, chris van hal len and donna edwards, two now washington,

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today, chris christie called you the boy in the bubble. this is some strong words from christie. >> i think it's been a tough couple of days and some of the other guys too. people react badly to add versety. >> ouch. marco rubio a short while ago.

my colleague, dave gutierrez, senior editor, and former congressman, school of public policy, of course a great c. celebrating, national review, you stopped trump? >> there is national review had this big anti-trump issue, stopping the trump candidacy, but also true that trump has energized a lot of people. we're speaking to conservatives who care about core con sebtiv issues, and he's not really republican regulars. >> what's wrong with that? >> nothing wrong with it. he remains moformidable. they have a republican elect tror trait. not true in new hampshire, not true in other states, who don't care about i.

>> scott brown kind of fits. >> absolutely. >> democratic side. what's going on on the democratic party? >> trying to find our identity. eight years of barack obama, we've had a successful run with him. they're struggling to find that, bernie sanders and hillary clinton, how much you want to embrace, what a different direction you want to go. it's natural you have this kind of tension. i wasn't totally surprised by the results last night. i knew bernie sanders was strong there. mrs. clinton has proven to be a great turn around, political artist. she has her work cut out for her in new hampshire, and she'll surprise people in new hampshire. >> half the party rejected its establishment candidate. 52% just cruz and trump essentially rejecting the establishment of their party. you know, this is the story we keep under reporting. >> yes and no. we keep saying it's happening. we keobserving it, but none of

can get to the core and why it's affecting both parties. it's not as though hillary clinton is so conservative that people who are rejeck establishment values should see here her as an enemy. donald trump is appealing to conservatives, a lot churn. i don't think anyone has figured out what the churn is a result of. it's happening, not going to stop any time soon. >> you know, i get the feeling that there is a whole bunch of people in both parties that think okay, now we're going to start seeing a return to norm. why do i feel that's wishful thinking. >> if you look at every single market demock crass see, it's just the new normal. >> i'm glad you brought that back. western europe are a mess. >> we're actually late to the party. barack obama was a big phenomenon. but he put the lid on a lot of these tensions the democrat and

the republican side. >> you draw circles with sanders and trump, and you look at things similar, they both take on, have the same take on trade, they have a very similar take on the financial services and wall street, and they certainly have figured out a way to tap into a vein of resentment. democrats having to reinvent themselves, republicans going through the same thing. it will be interesting to see how hillary emerges, the kind of person and political athlete she is. >> that's what i'm trying to figure out is can hillary clinton unite this in her party. can marco rubio or ted cruz unite? >> it's so hard to say that. and you know, senator sanders won't even say he can see it coming back together. a very profound split. people were booing at the victory party, calling her a

liar when she came out onto the stage. >> she needs to have vote for her. >> a number of young people and single women who are the coalition, people who elected obama. she needs them. >> stop there, thank you all, we'll be back tomorrow. with more on "mtp daily," "with all due respect" starts right now. i'm mark halperin. >> i'm john helemann. whose line is it? >> i can't remember whose turn it is. let's flip for it. >> heads. >> it is. >> "with all due respect" to iowa, we don't do coin flips here in new hampshire. >> happy caucus, and my greated east to our