event. gop candidates debate tomorrow night, as we keep saying, miles to go before we sleep. and of special interest tonight is the next hour. "meet the press daily" with chuck todd from new hampshire. if it's friday, it's a fight for the soul of the democratic party. 40 years in the making. the right has spent a generation deciding who's conservative enough. now it's the left's turn. and the progressives may have already won, no matter who the nominee is. mis"mtp daily" and it starts right now. good evening from a snowy manchester. it now feels like the new hampshire primary, with a little

snow on the ground. welcome to "mtp daily." let's start a slew of new polling out of new hampshire and nationally today, just some of them in the last few hours, let me catch you up. boston suffolk university poll showing trump maintaining a double-digit lead over his competition here in new hampshire. but we're seeing big strides in this one, along with other polls from marco rubio. in this poll, he's in second place, while iowa caucus winner ted cruz is in fifth. though that seems artificially low in this poll. our nbc/"wall street journa journal"/marist poll, we have cruz in third and kasich the only other candidate in double digits. nationally today, there was a new quinnipiac poll that has trump at 31%, cruz and rubio trailing him. but look, now let's turn to the democrats. "boston globe"/suffolk university, they claim this race is now only down to nine points. they have sanders leading

clinton 50 to 41, the smallest margin we've seen of any poll in a long time. but the big story with the democrats might be this new quinnipiac national poll, where bernie sanders has essentially caught up with hillary clinton, 44-42 among what quinnipiac says is likely democratic voters. that's a huge 17-point drop for clinton since december. a big swing. let's take these numbers with a whole bag of on that one, but if we see other national numbers showing that, we may know that just like we told you, national polls are lagging indicators for what happens in iowa and new hampshire. now let's turn to tonight's take, which we hinted at the top of the show. sanders and clinton, they clashed in their first one-on-one debate right here in new hampshire last night. and arguably the sharpest exchange centered on what it means to be a progressive. >> i am a progressive who gets things done. and the root of that word, "progressive," is progress.

but i've heard senator sanders' comments and it's really caused me to wonder, who's left in the progressive wing of the democratic party? under his definition, president obama's not progressive, because he took donations from wall street. >> one of the things we should do is not only talk the talk, but walk the walk. i am very proud to be the only candidate up here who does not have a super pac, who is not raising huge sums of money from wall street or special interests. >> but if we're going to get into labels, i don't think it was particularly progressive to vote against the brady bill five times. >> she got up and said something like, i have been a -- i'm paraphrasing, i have been criticized because people think i'm a moderate. well, i am a moderate. there is nothing wrong with being a moderate. but you can't a moderate, you can't be a progressive. >> so the democratic party is having its first race to the left in more than 40 years. it really hasn't happened, arguably, since 1972, when

george mcgovern won the democratic presidential nomination, as the anti-war icon who did not shy away from a liberal platform. listen to his 1972 acceptance speech for the nomination, which of course took place in the dark of night. >> from secrecy and deception in high places come home america. from military spending so wasteful, that it weakens our nation, come home, america. from the entrenchment of special privilege and tax favoritism. from the waste of idle hands to the joy of useful labor, from the prejudice based on race and sex. >> mcgovern was trounced in the general election by richard nixon, and since then, the democratic primaries have been a fight to prove electability over those liberal ideals. in fact, listen to how vice president al gore and senator bill bradley responded to the liberal label back in their 2000

democratic primary debate. >> do you reject the notion that you are a liberal? and do you believe someone who holds fundamentally liberal views is at a disadvantage running for president? >> whatever you want to call that, liberal, progressive, whatever, i'll accept whatever label you want, because that's why am. >> i don't really care what kind of label people apply to those positions and views. i accept whatever they want to call that. >> i miss -- a trip down memory lane. obviously, a far cry from what we saw last night between bernie sanders and hillary clinton. right now in 2016, mainstream isn't the selling point it once was in a democratic primary. listen to the role establishment played in last night's debate. >> i'm very proud and grateful to have the support of so many elected vermonters and former officials. two former governors, the current governor, the current

other senator, i really appreciate that, and i think it's because they've worked with me, they've seen what i do, they know what kind of a colleague i am. they want me as their partner in the white house. and that's exactly what i will do. >> secretary clinton does represent the establishment. i represent, i hope, ordinary americans, and by the way, who i'm not all that enamored with the establishment. >> senator sanders is the only person who i think would characterize me, a woman running to be the first woman president, as exemplifying the establishment. >> so after a generation and a half of the democratic party trying to run away from its ideological roots, the base is finally welcomed to the forefront and it's possibly redefining the party. so is the democratic party undergoing a fundamental transformation or will history repeat itself? joining me now, dan balz, democratic reporter for "the washington post." dan, you've covered a lot of democratic primaries. i've covered a lot of democratic

primaries. it was just, it was striking to hear gore/bradley. it was so different from sanders/clinton, that was only 16 years ago. something's changed. >> well, they were at the end of the clinton, the first clinton administration, there may or may not be another clinton administration, but they were at the end of an administration in which bill clinton had redefined the democratic party in a more centrist view. when you go back to this state when walter mondell was running against gary hart, that was as close as we've got to an old-fashioned liberal versus somebody trying to rest the party in a different direction. bill clinton redefined it in 1992 in a centrist way, new democrats. what we're seeing now is that under barack obama and partly because of him and partly because of the nature of the democratic party at this point, the party has moved left. we've known that this was, in essence, a fight that was coming. we saw it last night break out in a much more significant way. >> we are, by the way, in a matter of minutes, going to have

andrea mitchell interviewing hillary clinton live right after this rally. i will potentially be interrupting you to go to that. i just wanted to warn you, dan, on that front. i guess the question is, with the republican party, essentially, they've been doing this for a while. maybe if both parties are doing it at the same time, what happens to the middle? >> well, there isn't much middle left in american politics. i think we have seen that over successive elections. >> i'm going to pause there. let me go to andrea mitchell, who is just about to interview hillary clinton live. so, andrea, you've got control of this microphone. take it away. >> -- sound more like a politician. that bernie sanders sounds more authentic, more passionate. how do you counteract that? >> well, look around here. i have a lot of young people who are supporting me, and they are working really hard every single day to go out, contact voters, to make the case.

look, i said last night, andrea, i will fight with all my might for people who can't wait for the kind of changes that i am pushing. you know, that will move us forward on the economy, raise incomes, take the affordable care act to 100% coverage and increase costs, including prescription drug costs. i meet these people and they tell me what they need from the next president. i am ready and prepared to do that. but i'm not going to make promises i can't keep. you know, if you look at what a lot of senator sanders is proposing, the numbers just don't add up. and finally he's getting scrutiny for what he has proposed a proposed. and i think as we go forward in this campaign, the questions that are being asked will be very hard for them to be answered. so i'll stay on the path i'm on to try to make the case for the kind of change, the kind of future that we're going to work on together to produce. >> his argument about wall street ties seems to be penetrating. it's stuck. how do you counteract that? are you willing to release the transcripts that were under your control?

they were part of your transcripts, you own them. transcripts of all your speeches? >> i said i would look into that, but i want to get to what's really behind this. what's behind this is, i made speeches, when i left, as many people do, other former officials -- >> sorry you did it? >> no, i'm not. i thought it was a good way to communicate wlafs what i was seeing in the world and answer questions about that and i think it was a useful exercise for me, because it also enabled me to think through where i was in the assessment of what i would do next. so, no, but here's what's really going on. this is an effort by the sanders' campaign to basically say, anybody who's ever taken a donation, not just from wall street, if you take it to the natural conclusion, from anybody, is bought and paid for. that is absolutely untrue. and i know that the american people have every right to ask those questions, and i have every right to answer them. i'm the one who went to wall street before the crash and said you guys are wrecking the

mortgage market and it's going to lead to a big crisis. i'm the one who advocated for ceo compensation changes. i'm the one who has the toughest, most effective plan to take on wall street. i'm actually not -- i'm not in any way advocating we just keep doing the same things over and over again, because that won't solve our problems. and despite my best efforts, i can't get senator sanders to agree to join me in actually having a broader, more effective effort to rein in financial abuse. >> well, do you really think he is smearing you? >> i think his campaign, which he claims to be a positive campaign, has engaged in artful smear, innuendo, and insinuat n insinuation, and enough is enough. that's what i made clear yesterday. >> i just asked him about the release that came from your campaign, saying that he had flunked the commander in chief test. and he said that that was an example of the daily clinton campaign attack machine. >> people can see it for themselves last night, andrea.

it was pretty clear on that stage, who was ready to be commander in chief. our pointing it out rest on what he did last night. what he said and failed to say. when voters go to the polls on tuesday, they are selecting their candidate, they hope, to be president and commander in chief. you've got to be able to do all aspects of the job at once. there's no on the job training, and as senator shaheen said today, you can have a domestic agenda and you can be really poised to try to do everything you can to implement it, but you have no idea what's going to come in that door of the situation room. i do. and i am prepared, ready, and experienced to take on those responsibilities. >> can you become the comeback kid ii? >> well, look, we have a great campaign here. i'm running against a neighbor, new hampshire always seems to vote for neighbors. that i understand. but we're going to just fight as hard as we can. i am a fighter. i have always been a fighter. some people said, well, don't even bother going to new hampshire, because senator

sanders will obviously win, because he's next-door and has been in public life for 25 years and tv goes across the border. i said, i'm going to new hampshire. new hampshire has never quit on me, i would never quit on new hampshire. >> thanks. >> thank you. >> there you have it, a live interview there by andrea mitchell, getting about five minutes with hillary clinton to respond to her. i got the campaign manager for bernie sanders, jeff weaver. mr. weaver, welcome, sir. >> good to so you, chuck. how are you? >> i am good. you are also a resident of that neighboring state, vermont. >> i was born and raised in northern vermont, right near the canadian border. >> let me ask about two specific allegations they made, one, arguably against you more than senator sanders, in that she says the campaign. she wouldn't saying that senator sanders is doing this, but his campaign was engaging in what she called an artful smear. how do you respond? >> when she made that charge against senator sanders last night, she was loudly booed by the audience here in new hampshire. i mean, it's crazy.

the truth of the matter is that we have a rigged economy in this country, it's held up by a corrupt system of campaign finance, that is the core of senator sanders' message about why we need to transform america, so we can deal with issues like climate change and health care and jobs and wages and i understand they don't want to talk about that, because as the vice president reminded us, the secretary is a newcomer to this issue. secretary sanders has been talking about this issue his entire political life. >> he said something last night, and it caught my ear, and if we had more time, i would have wanted to broach it more. he said the entire idea of wall street is based on a fraud. there are a lot of of union mention pensions that are invested in wall street. there are a lot of 401(k) retirement plans that are invested in wall street. all of this is a fraud? what did he mean by that? we didn't get a definition. what did he mean? >> there have been studies done

of people, interviews with people on wall street, and a large percentage of people say that they know that there's fraud going on, either in their workplace or their friends' workplace, that many people who work on wall street believe -- >> fraud happening on wall street. he didn't say that. he said -- and he was pretty deliberate. >> the entire model. >> the entire model he thought was a fraud. >> the business model was a fraud. >> but if the entire system is based on a fraud, then why are we investing pension funds? >> well, look -- i think this study showed that there was, even among wall street people, a wide perception there was fraud, and many people who worked on wall street thought they had to engage in conduct that was at least up to the edge in order to be successful there. >> i'm sure you seen some of the coverage on how senator sanders did on the foreign policy section. you heard what secretary clinton's campaign said she wouldn't say it but i think it was jennifer palmieri said, he flunked the commander in chief

test. >> the same kind of attacks they're leveling against senator sanders are the same attacks they leveled against senator obama in 2008. they have a much more hawkish approach to foreign policy than does senator sanders. no doubt about that. that doesn't make them right because they're hawkish. she infolks henry kissinger. heim sure many democrats would be quite prized to find out that's a foreign policy role model for secretary clinton is henry kissinger, the man responsible for the genocide in cambodia, come on. >> jeff weaver, i'm going to leave it there. going to be a wild four or five days, huh? >> yeah. >> are you up by 30 or 9? >> we're not up by 30. >> i think we're up by a little bit. we'll work very hard here and i think we'll do well. >> we'll be watching. thank you, sir. >> thank you. coming up, we have candidates and campaigns fast and furious here already. ben carson will join me live right here in manchester, as he makes the final push in new hampshire and raises more

questions about what happened to his campaign in iowa and whether ted cruz is behind it. plus, donald trump back on the debate stage this weekend, but will marco rubio be the biggest target? and it's a family affair for jeb bush. can some motherly love help him on the trail while brotherly love helps him on tv. he's got a lot of work to do. stay tuned. everyone's lookin' red carpet ready. my man, lemme guess who you're wearing... toenail fungus!? whaaat?!? fight it! with jublia. jublia is a prescription medicine... ...used to treat toenail fungus. use jublia as instructed by your doctor. jublia is workin' it! most common side effects include... ...ingrown toenail, application site redness,... ...itching, swelling, burning... ...or stinging, blisters, and pain. oh!! fight it! with jublia! now that's a red carpet moment! ask your doctor if jublia is right for you. visit our website for savings on larger size. frequent heartburn brand in america.

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a little history lesson here in new hampshire. sometimes you don't have to come in first to be the winner of the new hampshire primary. in 1968, senator eugene mccarthy was challenging president lyndon johnson. here's how nbc's david brinkley explained the contest before the results started rolling in. >> if mccarthy gets as much as 30% of the vote or more against an incumbent president, he can legitimately claim an important

victory. >> well, mccarthy won 42% that night, coming in second, of course, to johnson, but changing the shape of the race, by the end of the month, the president announced he was not running for re-election. fast forward to 9192 in new hampshire, and another challenge to an incumbent president. conservative commentator pat buchanan came in second to president george h.w. bush, but bu canon won nearly 40% of the vote, foreshadowing president bush's eventual defeat in november. >> did i not tell you we would make history?! today, today from dawn to dusk, the buchanan brigades met king george's army all along the conquered manchester/nashua line and i'm proud to report they are treating back into

massachusetts. >> on the democratic side, that same year, bill clinton lost to massachusetts senator paul songus, but second place needed him the momentum he needed to eventually make it to the white house. >> let me say that while the evening is young and we don't know yet what the final tally will be, i think we know enough to say with some certainty, that new hampshire tonight had made bill clinton the comeback kid. >> and what do they say the first shall be last? we'll be right back with ben carson. he joins me right here in manchester after a short break.

so are the republicans heading for a demolition derby on the debate stage tomorrow night? it's possible, with four days to go before the new hampshire primary, we're back to the same tarantino circular firing squad

scenario we were in just before iowa. donald trump is accusing rival ted cruz of stealing a victory in the iowa caucuses. and guess what, no one is sticking up for cruz. and with rubio rising in the polls, his rivals are piling on him. we told you, he's now sitting in second place in a slew of new polls, including that new "boston globe" suffolk university poll. and he's up six points since the end of january in our own nbc news/"wall street journal"/marist poll. and guess what, rubio's been taking hits from all sides, like this one from cruz. >> -- the one who agreed with the democrats the most. that was their reasoning with bob dole and john mccain and mitt romney. >> plus, the establishment candidates are keeping up the heat, too. christie and bush both questioning rubio's record, after senator santorum struggled to name a single rubio accomplishment in an interview on "morning joe" the other day. >> it took him three minutes. and he finally came up with that

he fought some amendment on obamacare at one point. let me tell you, they're saving a place on the mt. rushmore after that one. >> marco rubio is a gifted politician, but his whole life has been around his own ambitions. and he's gifted, he can turn a phrase really well. but what has he done? what has he done? >> my colleague, gabe gutierrez, sat down with rubio on his campaign bus earlier today to respond to these charges. >> how can you convince the republican primary voters that you are the guy? >> because, number one, i give us the best chance to unify this party. >> is that it? electability? is it really just -- >> of course not. number one, i give us the best chance to unify the party. number two, i give us the best chance to grow the party. to talk our message of conservatism to people who haven't voted for us before. to people who are growing up and living the way i grew up and have lived. number three, because i beat hillary clinton, and they know that. and number four, because on the most important job a president does, commander in chief, no one running for president is better

prepared, has more experience, says shown better judgment or better understanding than i have. and that is the most important job of a president. >> and just a few minutes ago, by the way, rubio was endorsed by the editorial board of the "las vegas review-journal." why does that matter? well, it may matter because the paper's billionaire owner is republican donor, shelton adelson, who of course he purchased that newspaper a few months ago. the editorial says that it never influenced the board's decision, but there have been rumors for weeks that he was ready, that adelson was ready to jump behind rub rubio. so where do we stand? right now is one of the candidates who will be on stage tomorrow night. dr. ben carson. hello, sir. >> thank you, hi. >> first i want to talk about the state of what's going on, what happened in iowa. we had those telephone recordings that showed up on breitbart, that the cruz campaign was using to describe an incorrect report about the state of your candidacy.

are you -- how did you respond -- when you saw those -- when you saw those recordings, how did you want to respond? >> well, the recordings really deny change my opinion. i had already knew what happened. we had been told this was coming. just after the caucuses had started and we had put out all kinds of information that it was not true. the tweet that came out that started all of this was falled within one minute by another tweet that said carson is not dropping out. people chose to ignore that, because they were too anxious to run with the story. to me that smacks of deceit. and so i really feel, we are asking ourselves, have we sunk to the level where that's acceptable? are we saying, if it's legal, it's okay, not whether it's right or wrong. >> sounds like you were shocked that ted cruz would do this. do you think he knew this was happening? do you blame him or the

campaign? >> he told me he did not know it was happening. >> do you take him at his word? >> i guess that really depends on what he does. if nobody's head rolls. if nothing has changed, then that indicates a tacit acceptance of this kind of behavior. and that disturbs me. >> do you now think his win is illegitimate? >> whether it's legitimate or not, what we have to think about in the united states of america is what kind of a nation are we becoming? are we going to accept washington ethics, which is, well, the ends justify the means, and win by all circumstances, doesn't matter what you do. you know, you have to stop and think about it. what's logical? you know, i've been working for months in iowa. and i've had hundreds, if not thousands of people working for me, college kids working for me. one college kid lost his life. ten minutes beforehand, they

say, okay, i'm done. does that make any sense? of course not. i take it, has this stiffened your resolve on keeping this campaign going? if you had a doubt, do you have less doubt today? >> if i had a doubt, i would have less doubt. >> okay. >> there's absolutely no reason for me to stop, because the american people have to have choices. they have to have the choice of integrity, truth, honesty, decency, and you know, a non-politician, quite frankly. our system was designed for citizen statesmen, not for career politicians. and, you know, i have had a lot of speciouses through life, from the bottom 1% to the top 1%, at least ten different jobs in all kinds of sectors, and those are the kinds of things that are needed to relate appropriately to all american people. >> what do you think it's going to take to get a second look? >> i think it's going to take some very good debate

performances. i don't like the debate format, and i would much rather sid down and talk to you for half an hour on foreign policy, about fiscal policy, so that people really get an in-depth understanding, but i am getting better with the debates. >> you seem more comfortable each time, but if you felt as if, you and cruz and trump, is that who you share potential supporters with? is it those two candidates and yourself? >> i think i share it with all of them, quite frankly, because i think there's a cross-section of people who value different types of things. but, you know, the key things for me, i'm not a highly partisan person. i'm really interested in how do we take america and give the american dream to everybody? this is the first generation expected not to do better than their parents. and the next generation, even worse and they say it's the new normal. there's nothing normal about it. >> to come back, you have to win

somewhere. this was tough. new hampshire is a tough state for somebody who's a movement conservative, just is. a lot of, it's a different type of electorate. is it south carolina? if you were going to make your move, do you have to do well there? >> i'm looking to do very well in south carolina. we're going to put a lot of resources, time, and effort into it. >> dr. carson, thanks for stopping by, sir. jeb bush will be taking the stage in concord in just a few minutes. his mother, barbara bush, is also expected to attend. we'll dip in there live. and coming up on our making of a candidate series, we'll look at john kasich's time as house budget chair. stay tuned. know your financial plan won't keep you up at night. know you have insights from professional investment strategists to help set your mind at ease. know that planning for retirement

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voila. remotes, come out from the cushions, you are back. the x1 voice remote is here. in today's "making of a candidate close-up," we're looking at john kasich.

he's the former head of the house budget committee, who made his name as one of the men who helped balance the federal budget along with bill clinton back in the '90s. in fact, balancing the budget has been part of kasich's political dna for decades. it's something he's quick to remind voters about while on the campaign trail here in new hampshire. >> i was chairman of the budget committee in washington and i was one of the leaders along with senator domenici, we balanced the federal budget. the only thing people have to realize is i got the budget balanced. we did get the budget balanced in washington. that number stopped going up and the debt came down. i actually do balance budgets. so when you say i have a plan, you can believe i do. we balanced the budget and cut taxes and the economy grew again. so the formula is pretty simple. >> to get to the root of all of this, you have to go back to 1982, when kasich was elected to the house, at just the young age

of 30. he quickly got a reputation as a young lawmaker with lots of energy and a willingness to work across the aisle. but it was his close friendship with his republican colleague newt gingrich that jump started his career. after republicans swept to power in the gop revolution of '94, gingrich promoted kasich over other senior lawmakers and put him in charge of the budget committee. long known as a fiscal conservative, kasich went after military and defense spending, nicknaming himself the cheap hawk, even before getting the top job. kasich has co-sponsored a bill to slash government spending by $90 billion over five years. it failed, but its reputation was sealed. >> one senior democrat came to me when the majority leader finished, he said, you know, we can't do anything today, don't worry, it will be tomorrow and next year, and the year after, and the year after. it's always tomorrow and the year after, and the year after. but we're getting awfully close

to making it today. >> you saw over his right shoulder was a young rick santorum, by the way. well, kasich was right, and his partner in that effort was democrat tim penny. and he later said the vote was a seminole moment that changed the way washington dealt with the budget. years later when the clinton administration submitted a plan to eliminate the deficit within seven years, kasich saw an opportunity, and he urged him to do it in five. that was in february of 1997. by july, lawmakers had hammered out a deal to put the country on a path to an actual balanced budget for the first time since 1969. and when president clinton signed the legislation that august, kasich was by his side. >> this year, we, democrats and republicans alike, were given the opportunity and the responsibility to finish the job of balancing the budget for the first time in almost 30 years. we have risen to that challenge.

>> kasich held the chairmanship until he retired in 2001, but is still pushing the same agenda. in fact, he's still a high-profile support of a balanced budget amendment, something that would force the federal government to balance the books every year. he's been pushing it since his early days in the house. as kasich himself said nearly 20 years ago, quote, the politicians know they must not only achieve a balanced budget, but also maintain a balanced budget, they will have no choice but to develop credible solutions and do so sooner rather than later. jack torry is washington bureau chief for the columbus dispatch and covered kasich in washington and ohio for years. jack, it is fascinating to watch kasich on the campaign trail. he is the only guy, as you saw in some of those clips, that will tell you about, hey, look at how i worked with pete domenici, which, of course everyone in that audience goes, who? >> that is one of his shining moments in the house. he not only worked with pete

domenici, but with erskine bowles, the white house chief of staff, and with the strong support of president clinton and they hammered out a deal in 1997 that included more spending, for example, the schip program for children's health, and a cut. capital gains tax, and restraints in medicare spending, which went into effect the next few years before being reversed by congress. however, what kasich doesn't always say is that the economy was roaring by 1997. the dotcom boom was in full force and the deficit was already coming down. but it's a legitimate argument on his part. john kasich, throughout his career, was obsessed, and i don't think that's too strong of a word, with bringing federal deficits under control. >> you know, it's interesting, though, in a year where having a washington pedigree is the worst, frankly, probably the worst characteristic to have for some voters, he is totally

swimming against that current. and he has -- and he fully admits it. you know, he believes that that's his criteria, that's his resume, and he's going to run on it. maybe new hampshire will buy it. you know, but i just don't know where he goes after new hampshire. but that's kasich, is it not? >> that is john kasich. and i agree with you, he has a tough road after new hampshire, no matter if he finishes third, fourth, or fifth up there. but he has always been very serious about his record. and i think privately, what has really bothered him in this primary season, is the idea that people who are either first-term senators or a businessman from new york are suddenly, you know, seizing the moment, whereas john looks at his background and says, wait a second, on qualification, on just strict resume, i'm more qualified than they are. i think he's been very frustrated about this. but he has used the budget agreement of 1997, by a way of saying, i've done this before, i

will do it again. what he doesn't -- go ahead. >> yeah, no, i'm just curious, is he a -- is he don quixote or is he a realist? how is he going to handle a result that is fourth place or worse here on tuesday? does he take a second look at where he stands? >> for all his bluster may be too strong a word, but john is very relatable and excitable. he is a pragmatic person. he has never rain a campaign i know of that has went into debt. i think he'll take a very hard look after new hampshire and make a decision. yet, there's a little bit of hopefulness in this, but he looked at new hampshire early on and said, i cannot compete in iowa, but i think with independents. new hampshire, i might be able to connect. and i think he also was quickly of the opinion that jeb bush might not run as strongly as other people would think. what he didn't factor in was donald trump. he just never saw that.

and many people didn't. >> yeah, i know, it is interesting what this race would look like without trump, although, you know, he's there, he's in the game. jack tory, i appreciate it. thanks very much. >> anytime. well, jeb bush is hoping for a boost from the rest of the bush clan on the campaign trail. we'll see how much family matters, coming up. [ music and whistling ] when you go the extra mile to help business owners save on commercial auto insurance, you tend to draw a following. [ brakes screech ] flo: unh... [ tires squeal, brakes screech, horn honks ] ooh, ooh! [ back-up beeping, honking ] a truckload of discounts for your business -- now, that's progressive.

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of the bush legacy. perhaps for one last hope on the trail there for jeb bush, barbara bush is now on the trail with her son. he's polling in fifth place in the cnn poll. fourth place in the latest boston globe suffolk university poll. the marist poll, i think he is also in fifth place. we sort of see, we think, is a pattern here on the polling. we'll get to you in a minute. campaign is telling nbc news by the way, that we could expect to see george w. bush, translation, he's coming to south carolina. bush 43s featured in a new tv ad by the right to rise super pac. the family affair in new hampshire, much more next in the lid. great panel. stay tuned. dedicated advisor and team who understand where you come from. we didn't really have anything, you know. but, we made do. vo: know you can craft an investment plan as strong as your values. al, how you doing.

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all right, it's lid time. what's happening in this last weekend in the state that is known as the graveyard up holsterers. hallie jackson, been in the trenches for months covering the republican campaign, lately mostly cruz and rubio. political correspondent for the new york times, usa today, welcome, all. we see a pattern in the polls. trump still ahead. seems to have stabilized, right, susan. rubio on the rise, sitting in second. then there is a jumble below rubio, kasich or cruz, sometimes a little jeb.

but that appears to be we're settling. >> there are a limited number of tickets out of new hampshire, maybe four is the maximum for republicans, so a week from now, a smaller field than it is today. we had candidates invested in iowa like ben carson who didn't make the sale. you have candidates invested in new hampshire. some will not make it. they're looking at this as maybe their last weekend of campaigning. >> do we buy the rubio rise. is it one of those things that this is the pundit class in the mainstream conservative world, and hoping that he is getting this or is it real? >> i think when you look at the trend across the polls, clearly there is some kind of boost that he got. whether it's become the kind of run away train that has campaign wants to project, it's much more dubious. you have them releasing these endorsements and conservative congressmen this week. he might finish slightly ahead in the third. he may not be the blowout.

>> they were afraid, we don't like the 3-2-1 strategy. he's in second in all the polls. the expectations are now second. what's going on with ted cruz? i thought a mountain was being made out of a molehill, and then these recordings. i'm wondering is cruz taking on water, the campaign think they're taking on water here over the allegations that maybe they played fast and lose with the carson. >> i don't think the campaign thinks that. it's a story line and cruz wants to be looking ahead not necessarily to new hampshire, south carolina to the primary states, it's not the story line you want. i spoke with a carson aide saying they are too not necessarily pushing it. dr. carson keeps getting asked about. he is, remember, fundraising all of this as well. i don't know that's one hundred% the case. i think when you talk to cruz folks, they say listen, yeah, we're third, fourth, fifth in the polls, look at what happened

in iowa. they were off. so they're feeling like hey, maybe we can compete here. >> i'll tell you, though, his momentum got stunted here a little. i thought he had a shot at finishing second, one, two, and he might have been off to the races. >> not the most natural state, not the best fit for him. the most important number of the boston globe, third of republicans voters say they could change their mind before tuesday, and that's true. we know in new hampshire primary there could be something that happens tomorrow in the debate that affects who wins. >> alex, the other thing that makes these things so unstabable, and i said you're up nine and one and 20 in the other. he said look at the independent number. sometimes you think the 23% of the democrat elector rate is independent, in that suffolk university poll that showed him up nine. obviously they think it will be larger. >> a big wildcard is the moderate independent women who

you could see voting for hillary clinton because they like her message and they don't particularly care for sanders. you could see them going for john kasich or christie, the sensible responsible republican, you know, mainstream type as well. so you have these parties competing not just within their polls but for each other's votes. >> picking up on this kasich threat, i think they feel like they are getting some sort of momentum here. i spent some time with the governor yesterday, and they feel like he's connecting. i had someone say to me this afternoon, they said i hope you cover us if we come in third. >> that's a legitimate ask. i have to say, his 13%, that's about where he is, it seems solid. it seems like he built that, like that is -- like christie, moon lit, that's why it went down as fast as it went up. >> where does he go next? votes like former senator and

tom brath who we all know. maybe he can do well here, but where does he go next? >> it feels like -- look, i think third gets him out of here. i think he should get some credit for that. i think he needs second to start raising money. >> and even in the case that you get second, you don't have staff in other states, not laid the groundwork here. so maybe you're sort of john mccain in 2000, where lightning strikes and people think you're great and where do you go. >> in the hilton head, myrtle beach area, mitch begin, listen. >> jeb bush thinks he's there. if it a muddle, nobody drops out, susan. >> no. >> i hear you. when you're out of bud, you're out of beer, when you're out of money, you're out of the campaign. >> we'll be checking in witrail. special editions on sunday and

monday. i have some surprises. don't forget to watch memeet th. "with all due respect" starts right now. i'm mark halperin. >> and i'm john helemann. >> "with all due respect" it's no use fighting with the media. >> good evening from snowed in new hampshire as they call it around here. a granite classic day. pretty to look at, but snowy roads have caused the presidential candidates to delay or cancel their -- studio in manchester, a lot with you tonight. sanders and clinton are speaking to over 5,000 party activists in new hampshire democratic dinner tonight right across the street from here. donald trump plans to join his colleagues on the r