it's 8:a.m. on the east coast. nearly 5:00 a.m. out west. 7:00 a.m. in the state of iowa. that was important last week but it's still 8:00 a.m. in the granite state. we've got our times. i am alex whit, the place for politics. within this last hour new poll numbers from new hampshire ahead of tuesday's primary, a daily tracking poll by u mass lowell in boston shows bernie sanders at 55%. that is unchanged from yesterday.

he leads hillary clinton by 14 points. she, however, has gained a point. on the republican side, donald trump leading the field by 21. marco rubio dropped a point. jeb bush, john kasich each picking up two points apiece. trump will return to the debate stage in new hampshire tonight as republicans duke it out one final time before the primary. unlike his rivals on beth sides, trump is taking a break from campaigning today after speaking at a rally in south carolina last night. he did not flaunt his polling numbers like he usually does. but he still thinks he came out on top in iowa. >> trump didn't do so well, what? isn't it funny. i came in a strong, strong first, okay? but honestly, it doesn't matter. got a lot of delegates. and it really doesn't matter because my total focus now is on new hampshire. and then next week my total focus is going to be right here in south carolina. >> let's check in with msnbc's

halle jackson in manchester for us. what do we expect from tonight's debate, halle? >> good morning, alex. there is a ton of interest in this race. you can see it with election officials predicting a record turnout as we look ahead to new hampshire's primary on tuesday. but first, we're looking ahead to tonight's debate where donald trump will be on the stage this time. after raising eyebrows with his snow day yesterday. donald trump a no-show blaming snow in new hampshire for skipping straight to south carolina. but promising he's not leaving the granite state in the cold. >> my total focus now is on new hampshire. and then next week my total focus is going to be right here in south carolina. >> reporter: trump pulling big crowds in sunny florence but, back in new hampshire, jeb bush threw some shade. tweeting at trump, my 90-year-old mother made it out to calm ina during the storm. trump, bashing bush right back. >> i mean, jeb bush has spent

$112 million and nobody shows up. what the hell? >> reporter: while trump's still leading in new hampshire, it's marco rubio rising to second now. explaining why to nbc's gabe gutierrez. >> it's not enough to just be angry. you have to tell people what it is to do. the cumulative effect for having done that now for months, especially now that voters are tuning is going to help us. >> reporter: rubio at tonight's debate sits in the line of fire as the other establishment candidates look to make their mark. this state for some, a must win. even as rubio picks up an endorsement from a former rival, bobby jindal, and takes aim at a current one, ted cruz. >> by the way if you get a call on tuesday night saying i dropped out, it isn't true. it's a lie. keep voting. >> reporter: that's a dig at the texas senator whose campaign has been accused of playing dirty against ben carson in iowa. cruz looking ahead and looking confident though he's slipping slightly in new hampshire polls still in the top tier nationally. >> the two big legislative initiatives that i'm running on are appealing every word of

obamacare and adopting a simple flat tax so you can fill your taxes out on a postcard and we can abolish the irs. >> reporter: it was cruz in the crosshairs during the last debate. this time it will probably be marco rubio and expect to see immigration as a major topic. it's something that's important to new hampshire republicans. and it's also one of rubio's potential vulnerabilities, his rivals know it. don't be surprised to see them pounce. alex? >> thank you so much, halle jackson. the democratic race, hillary clinton has added new events in new hampshire today. all in an effort to narrow her rival sizable lead. nbc's kristen welker has more for us from manchester, the. >> alex, good morning to you. it is a sizable lead, double digits. but secretary clinton has added it and calling in hundreds of volunteers from all across the country and she has a message to her supporters, don't give up. with the democratic race growing more combative, hillary clinton

and bernie sanders faced off at a party dinner saturday. >> the only way we create the change that we need is through a political revolution. >> i will spend all my tomorrows doing everything i can to make your tomorrows better. >> reporter: following a day filled with fireworks. >> i want to say a word to the extraordinary people, particularly young people who are supporting senator sanders. i know you may not be for me now, but i am for you. >> reporter: meanwhile, bernie sanders rallied his faithful, again painting clinton as a part of the establishment. >> in this campaign we're not just talking the talk, we are walking the walk. >> reporter: he's been hitting clinton for being too entrenched with wall street. pointing to lucrative fee she's raked in giving speech toes companies like goldman sachs, clinton responding to andrea mitchell. >> are you sorry you did it? >> no, i'm not.

because i thought that it was a good way to communicate what i was seeing in the world. >> reporter: accusing sanders of smearing her. >> i think his campaign which he claims to be a positive campaign has engaged in artful smear, innuendo, and insinuation. >> reporter: with just days until voters have their say, sanders has a double digit lead in most polls. supporters ready to put a wynton board. >> we as a generation, i think, are kind of tired of playing the big game and we just want to see things happen. >> reporter: but clinton is calling in her re-enforcements who are hoping history will repeat itself. in 2008 she was trailing barack obama here but came back to beat him. >> can she come back? she's behind 20 points. >> oh, yes. the comeback grandma, i say. >> reporter: now during this week's msnbc debate in response to a question from chuck todd secretary clinton said she would look into the possibility of releasing the transcripts of those paid speeches. so far her campaign hasn't

released anything. alex, i've been talking to her campaign officials. they say they're still looking into that possibility. meanwhile, secretary clinton, bernie sanders will be criss-crossing the state late into the night. alex? >> they sure will. okay. thank you so much from manchester. let's get more now on today's top political stories. bring in alease jordan, msnbc political analyst and former senior adviser to the rand paul campaign, and selena maxwell, contributor to "essence" magazine. nice to see you. let's get right to this. we start with the latest new hampshire poll results released just in the last hour by u mass and they show trump still ahead by a sizable margin. okay. it's been that way for some time. elise, is the real story here the two-point bump up for bush and kasich or too little too late? >> i do think it's interesting especially in the case of john kasich because john kasich is known to have the best ground game in new hampshire and he's been retail politicking up there. he's done at least 100 events. he's put in the time. he's put in the money.

is it going to make a difference at the polls? that to me is interesting. also the fact that kasich only has 2.5 million. this is really make or break. jeb, however, will still have about $7 million cash on hand, so it's not as important but he does need to show come kind of boost with the voters. >> but he goes on, you think no matter what? >> i think so. i wonder if there's any historical precedent for a candidate to have that much of a war chest with disproportionate results. >> citizens united world for sure. >> i do want to ask you about sanders who still leads clinton by a significant margin here. is there any chance that she can over take him and all this talk of sanders engaging in a smear against her, it's an an artful smear as she points to that phrase, does that line have any chance of backfiring on her? >> well, i think that, look, in 2008 she went into new hampshire behind. and i think -- excuse me, barack obama went into new hampshire way ahead. and so clinton surprised everyone, you know, she had the

sort of crying moment, emotional appeal. i think that she's trying to recreate some of that magic she had in 2008. but i also think that she's looking beyond new hampshire and unof the things i'm looking closely at is her visit tomorrow to flint because one of the things that m thes are looking at, because, you know, bernie sanders and hillary clinton voted 93% of the time the same on the issues. so what are they going to do as president? how are they responding to an actual crisis in realtime? are they just simply calling for the governor to resign or are they actually going to flint and doing real things to help the people there? i think that's something the democrats are looking closely at. >> a look at presidential, i guess, appeal and how they would handle something but the difference between the last go round in new hampshire and this one, barack obama versus bernie sanders. which is a household name. separated by a river there, those two states. >> he definitely has a home field advantage, name recognition that he doesn't have in a place like new hampshire, nevada, the states coming up.

i think that he's going -- i mean, all the polls are showing he's going to win. we don't know by how much. hillary clinton certainly sending staffer there's to, you know, stop some of that bleeding so that it's closer than a double digit loss for her. but i think she's looking forward. i think that they learned a lot of lessons from 2008 that the delegate math actually matters and they wanted -- they have been hiring and organizing since the summer in those super tuesday states to ensure that they have that minority vote, those people of color that helped barack obama get elected two times. >> yeah. elise, donald trump has a double-digit lead in most of these polls in the state of new hampshire. which has, we should remind viewer, correctly picked the republican nominee in the last two elections. if he wins new hampshire, is it over? >> i don't think it's over just because i do think his stumble in iowa did hurt him. i think nonparticipating in the fox debate really hurt him. i think donald trump's performance tonight is really going to be critical for him to show up and to not have a

blustering, bumbling performance. that's going to be interesting to see how he handles that. i wonder how the donald trump ego though is going to handle if he doesn't do as well as he expects because that you see just how he loses, it's really the only time in the campaign that he's been able to -- he's lost his grit. ted cruz has attacked him effectively which hasn't happened before. is trump going to be able to handle going forward not being a winner because we all know he hates losers. >> right. >> but there's something to be said for the new hampshireites who say this, iowians pick corn. new hampshireites, we pick presidents. >> we'll have to say, but he certainly this i do think that trump is going to win it. i think that voting in a primary, that makes it much easier for new people who aren't usually going to go out and spend time caucusing the iowa. i think truch hasmp has a good . is rubio going to see a bump from third place finish.

it's been interesting, cruz hasn't seen a bump and i think that he's even been hurt with the carson narrative of the dirty campaigning, of the -- his organizers saying that carson was going to drop. and that just adds to the narrative of a, quote, falseness as senator rand paul put it. >> what about hillary clinton who has been reported that she has made hundreds of thousands of dollars from wall street, certainly with these speaking engagements, accepted a fair amount of campaign money as well. how much does that hurt her when you put it up against bernie sanders who gets mostly small donations from obviously thousands and thousands and thousands of people? >> i think when you compare to bernie sanders it's certainly something that he can take that message to the democratic base. but when you put it up against the republican field, there's plenty of them that have relationships with wall street and so i think that for a general election it's not necessarily handicap for her. she simply has to come up with a perhaps better answer to make sure that the democratic primary base understands that taking

money for a speech doesn't necessarily translate into deals or, you know, it's not a handshake deal for policy in the future for wall street. >> okay. thank you so much, ladies. appreciate your insights. jeb bush is certainly stepping up his attacks on marco rubio by claiming he has not accomplished a ling on capitol hill but why does bush say rubio has divided the country? that's next. our next item is a genuine "name your price" tool. this highly sought-after device from progressive can be yours for... twenty grand? -no! we are giving it away for just 3 easy payments of $4.99 plus tax! the lines are blowing up! we've got deborah from poughkeepsie. flo: yeah, no, it's flo. you guys realize anyone can use the "name your price" tool for free on progressive.com, right? [ laughing nervously ] ♪ [ pickles whines ] i know, it's like they're always on television. what? ugh! heartburn!

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donald trump has not been challenge. he plays you guys like a violin. it's amazing. he can change the conversation

and everybody just falls in line. >> that was jeb bush there characterizing donald trump's relationship with the media in an interview with my colleague kelly o'donnell this week. kelly is joining me from the white house. she's covered the establishment candidates. kelly, with a good morning. what do you think is next for bush's campaign in new hampshire? >> reporter: this is really about demonstrating if he has viability in an election year when you look back and remember the start of this season he was the prohibitive favorite among the establishment with enormous resources and early support among many office holders i would talk to. in the early days when we diplomat know what the field would look like, pre-donald trump time, i would talk to officers and shea they've would say, it seems like it's going to be jeb bush's year. fast forward and voters are deciding and we've seen jeb bush really struggle in terms of connecting with voters and getting their support. when i talk to them on the trail

i do hear a mix of people who say they can appreciate jeb bush, they might like him individually but wanting something different, something fresh, sort of the baggage of being part of a political family. at the same time, i was also struck by attending some of this events this week and seeing voters who were there in realtime, they come in with their impressions and then they leave after seeing him answer questions or talk to voters and there were some really favorable comments which jeb bush would say is what he needs to do, to make those connections and to grind it out. part of that, of course, is to try to blunt other candidates who have been out performing him. and one hits close to home. his former protege marco rubio who has seen that bump, that momentum, the rise of endorsements. things coming out of iowa where there are some in the party who say he's the one people should coalesce around, a younger figure, perhaps the face of the future of the party. so i asked jeb bush on his campaign bus about marco rubio and he had a very tough

assessment. >> every candidate has to have their record examined. every candidate has to earn it. there should be no coronations here. marco rubio is a gifted politician but his whole life has been around his own ambitions. he's gifted. he can turn a phrase really well but what has he done? we've had seven years with a guy who was gifted, could give a great speech but he's divided the country. >> one of the things when you're at these events, especially with the governors, bush, kasich, christie, they talk a lot abili about specific issues and records in their home states, things they have done. those often don't make these sound bites that are most interesting when we talk about it in a conversation like this. but they really work through specifics about times they were tested, issues that came up, how they had to work with the other party in their state legislatures. things like that. so when he's talking about marco rubio and hit that record, part of what voters in new hampshire are hearing are things that jeb bush says he's accomplished as a

way to audition for the nomination in the party. alex? g governors are the ones trying to tout that kind of experience for presidential politics. thank you so much from the white house. let's turn to the trump campaign. ali vitale has been following his every move. you've got marco rubio rising to second place. what kind of an effect is this having on trump's strategy? >> well, so you've seen this time again with donald trump is whenever someone gets close to him in the polls he begins hitting them. and what's interesting about it is he waits for a chance to hit back. he likes to be able to brand himself as a counter puncher. that's something his supporters like about him, especially when a lot of the people that he's hitting out against are people that they're also considering for president. when he was going up against ben carson, when those poll numbers in iowa started showing them neck and neck, they said they didn't love that he was hitting ben carson but they understood why he had to do it because they felt that, you know, carson being close to him in the polls was an excuse enough for him to

start counter punching. for ted cruz, someone they like, talk about trump will make him a vp and so they understood why those attacks had to start happening. what's interesting with marco rubio is he's a different lane as so many people see it. as far as trump supporters tell me it's not someone they're usually considering. when i ask them who else are you thinking at as president if trump were not your first pick, ben carson, ted cruz. marco rubio is not a usual name. in this instance if and when trump starts going after marco rubio a again it's going to have less of a backlash effect with his supporters because that's not someone that they had a particular level of affection for previously. so if and when he does start that you could see it tonight at the debate, could start seeing it on the stump here in new hampshire and in south carolina. where we see marco rubio becoming a little bit more competitive with trump in the polls, and that's something that it's going to be interesting to watch and see because immigration is going to be front and center in trump's attack on marco rubio i think, alex. >> very interesting assessment

you bring to us. thank you so much. >> thank you. how much of an impact tonight's debate affect the vote and what are the winning issues for bernie sanders in new hampshire that could win him votes across the country? we're now weighing in next. working on my feet all day gave me pain here. in my lower back but now, i step on this machine and get my number which matches my dr. scholl's custom fit orthotic inserts. now i get immediate relief from my foot pain. my lower back pain. find a machine at drscholls.com text mom. i'll be right back. be good. boys have been really good today. send. let's get mark his own cell phone. nice. send. brad could use a new bike. send. [siri:] message. you decide. they're your kids. why are you guys texting grandma? it was him. it was him. keep your family connected. app-connect. on the newly redesigned passat.

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hillary clinton is among the candidates making a final push in november today a day after she was flinked by a number of prominent women senators as well as the president of emily's list at a get out the vote event in manchester. while polls show she is gaining traction in that state she is still behind 20 points with bernie sanders and all the democratic voters there. andrew smith, he is the director of the university of new hampshire survey center and fred yang, a democratic pollster. fred, i'm going to reach out to

you first. we're going to talk about the gender gap in a moment. but first, overall picture of new hampshire. how concerned do you think the clinton campaign is about trailing sand erers by 20 point today? >> i think they would be concerned by that but other polls that show the race could be closer. and, look, i think what tuesday's about, of course, is about the outcome but also the expectation. and there was some expectation that hillary clinton would do well in iowa and bernie sanders out perform those expectations. i think in some respects they're in the opposite position for new hampshire and great thing about bill and hillary clinton is they tend to run better when they're the perceived underdog. look, the expectation is is that she'll lose new hampshire. i think it will be closer than 20 points. and then they go to nevada and south carolina. >> okay. a point to make though here is that hillary clinton won the new hampshire primary back in '08 beating barack obama by almost four points.

so, andrew, why do you think democrats are not warming up to her in that state this time around or are these polls a poor reflection of what you think is really going on there? >> i think there are a couple of things going on. first of all, there's a shelf life for any politician. typically eight to ten years, 12 years at most, between the time you first hit the national political scene and the time you win the presidency. clinton has been on the political scene since 1992. secondly, the democratic electorate has changed pretty dramatically since 2008. it's much younger here than it was then. the older coalition she was able to put together with more blue collar workers and women has been reduced. democratic party here is largely a very liberal upscale party and the younger part of that party especially is seeing clinton as pretty much yesterday's news and they're going heavily, heavily for bernie sanders. >> yeah. so, fred, given the big pop plarity there for bernie sanders if he wins new hampshire, where else throughout the country do

you think he can pick up a significant number of delegates? >> well, this is the -- this is the billion dollar question. you know, there is something in politics called momentum. and you know, we've seen some national polls. democrats and republicans nominate their candidates by who wins and does well in primaries and caucuses so the national preference doesn't matter as much. but i think it is significant, alex, in the last couple days in iowa some of the national polls have shown bernie sanders closing the gap with hillary clinton. look, i think monday was important. tuesday's important. february 20th is important. i think these things build on each other. i don't think it's clear yet where he will or cannot do unwell. i think a lot of it depends on tuesday. look, the one thing we do know though is that mrs. clinton tends to do better with minority voters. we're coming on some states in south carolina, other states where there is significant populations of african-americans, latinos. i think that will be actually

the real test for bernie sanders. not states like new hampshire. >> yeah. point well taken. andrew, i do want to play for you what a young woman told my colleague tamron hall during a debate watch party on thursday night. here's that. >> she brings up the topic of her being a woman, i also am a woman. i also face discrimination as being a woman. her feminism does not represent my feminism. >> andrew, the daily tracking poll by u mass lowell and boston 7 news found that hillary clinton is starting to gain support among women. what are you hearing from women voter there's about where their loyalty lies between clinton and sanders? >> you can't think of women as a single block. among older women clinton is doing better. trailing but it's pretty close among older women, 65 and older. she's doing okay not as good as she would hope among those women between say 35 and 65. but among younger women, she's getting killed like she is among

younger men almost. she's losing -- she's only getting -- sanders is getting close to 70% of the vote by -- from women under the age of 35. >> andrew, what what about republicans? i want to talk about that with you because the latest nbc/"wall street journal" poll shows rubio in second place. when they don't match the polls leading up to the caucuses there, how do you think new hampshire will be different? >> well, the thing to remember about new hampshire is we have really high turnout here. it was 54% in 2000. that means it's not political activists dominating the electorate. regular people who for the most part don't have much invested in any of these candidates. they can switch around very quickly at the end. we've seen this happen time after time after time that polls and voters shift around at the end of the campaign and polls are usually not that predictive because of this. rubio is moving up into second place. john kasich is another person i would pay attention to. both of them because they don't have a lot of downside among most of the parts of the

republican. kasich is one big weakness is among people who listen to talk radio. but rubio is a guy to watch simply because he's like everybody's second choice here. >> fred, when you look through all the different polls coming out of new hampshire on the republican side how do you read into them, particularly when it comes to the establishment lane, talking about those two andrew was just mentioning and add bush to that and christie? >> i cannot agree more first, alex, with andrew's overall point which is polls and polls for primaries are volatile. think about it. for most americans their expose shu sure to the campaign will be limited. most new hampshireites are living and breathing this campaign probably on a personal visceral basis every day. i think in terms of the republican primary, i think one of the most important turnout issues will be what% of the republican primary electorate on tuesday are actual republican voters. new hampshire has an open primary system, independents can vote in the republican or

democratic primary. marco rubio, ted cruz, john kasich, they tend to do better with republicans. and so i think one of the x factors for both the democrats and republicans will be who actually shows up on tuesday. >> andrew, i'm out of time but how much do you think the independent factor is going to be the it factor? i'm looking at the registered voters. 14,000. difference gop leading the democrats in the state of new hampshire. >> the independents or undeclared make up 44% of the registered voters. but when you get down to the people who are actually able or in a position to choose either the republican or the democratic ballot that gets down to low single digits. 3% or 7%. the idea of people moving from the republican primary to the democratic primary is a small, potentially important, more so important on the republican side simply because there are so many candidates and the race could be very close at the end. kasich is doing much better among the undeclared voters in our polling. but again, that can vary,

turnouts can make a difference, too. >> we have three days for things to change, which they could. thank you, guys. good to see you. the republicans gearing up for the last debate before the primary. what's going to be different this time around? that's next. ♪ [screaming] ♪ ♪ the bold nissan rogue, with intuitive all wheel drive. because winter needs a hero. now get a $199 per month lease on the 2016 nissan rogue. nissan. innovation that excites. this cit added this other level of clean to it. it just kinda like wiped everything clean. my teeth are glowing. they are so white. i actually really like the two steps.

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welcome back. to continuing coverage of the final days before the new hampshire primary. the republican candidates are prepare fog irtheir eighth debate of the campaign, the last before tuesday's primary. the field is smaller. seven candidates will be on stage. john kasich, jeb bush, marco rubio, donald trump, ted cruz, ben carson, and chris christie. let's head to manchester, new hampshire, and bring in jane tim following all the action for us on the republican side. so with another good morning to you, can we expect anything different from tonight's debate? >> you know, tonight we actually have winners and losers. we have people who scored well

in iowa. we have those top three candidates, trump, cruz, and carson. sorry, not carson. marco rubio. we also have dr. ben carson. i think this is sort of his last shot. downsizing his staff. we're going the see if he's really on the stage as number four as someone who can stay in this race or if one of the governors take that area. the governors, this is do or die for them here in new hampshire. this is the right area for them to emerge as a viable candidate. and they need to have a really good night so that they can get their voters out, get their base to to go out on what could be a very snowy primary day here. i think you're going to see those top three candidates sort of duke it out as if there's no one else on the stage and see everyone else trying to get in that top tier. >> speaking of the snow, donald trump missed a campaign day in new hampshire yesterday due to the weather. is that going to have any impact with the voter there's? >> you know, a lot of voters want to see the people on the ground. we see donald trump adding a lot of events, not taking anything for granted or running these sort of big rallies he's so used

to running. doing a lot more retail politicking. that's important to new hampshire voters. i was talking to one couple who was supporting kasich and they said, i didn't see donald trump here today so maybe his supporters are going to take that the wrong way. maybe our guy can emerge as a strong candidate and get some votes on primary day. >> how about the solid number two in the polls for new hampshire, that being marco rubio. certainly popularity has risen since iowa. but in the university of massachusetts lowell, the 7 news daily tracking poll released this morning the numbers don't necessarily tell that story as rubio dropped a point to 14%. trump up a point to 35%. what are the campaigns making out of this? >> you know, this close in the game i hear a lot of campaigns and a lot of voters say they're just polls. that drop still probably within the margin of error. this is a very, very tight race. a lot of voter s do decide at the last moment. new hampshire is known for breaking lane. i think we can see a lot of movement in this race. all the polls say a lot of people can change their minds in the final days. people are going to get out to the candidates one last time or

maybe a first time to make their final call. >> particularly in new hampshire if you're independent. thank you so much. let's go to the democrats now. bernie sanders still has a sizable lead over hillary clinton in new hampshire. in the just released university of massachusetts lowell 7 news daily tracking poll sanders is leading hillary clinton by 14 points so his lead has dropped one point since yesterday's poll. let's bring in annie carney for plit a ko and david corn, washington bureau chief for mother jones and msnbc political analyst. with a welcome to you both. david, first, as you wrote about why bernie sanders is so popular in new hampshire, what did you learn? >> well, you know, people think that it's because he's from next door in vermont and that because new hampshire voters like to be contrary and independent minded and so they often go with the mavericks. but on the democratic side that's not the history. and to begin with, vermont is a lovely place. new hampshire is a lovely place. if you talk to people in new hampshire, they don't really have a special bond or fondness

with vermont. and hillary clinton is as well-known here as bernie sanders. so there really is no home field advantage, especially given that in 2008 this state, the democrats, went for hillary. and that earlier in the campaign she was beating bernie by 20 to 30 points. if you go back to the history issue again, you find that over the last couple of decades, new hampshire democratic voters in the primary have almost always chosen the more establishment candidate. hillary in 2008 over barack obama who is the maverick. so why is bernie doing so well, it can only be one thing, that his message is resonating because of the nature of the message and it's really hitting hard with white working class male voters here who used to be, you know, hillary's base but now they're going towards bernie. >> on the heels of that that, annie, to ask you about what you wrote about the clinton

staffers. they're already down playing the importance of new hampshire. the polls showing sanders with a wide lead. how is this staff rationalizing mrs. clinton's position with the state? >> for weeks now they've been down playing new hampshire. they want -- like david said, they're playing up this home state advantage, acting like it's just an asterisk when it's not. doesn't matter. it's a nothing win. if bernie wins it. at the same time, so that's -- but she has a big advantage here, too. first of all, the statistics about neighboring state mattering here, they don't have -- she won in 2008, so what about someone who has already won this primary. she's been playing up the gender card here a lot because this is a state that loves electing women. they have the first all female congressional delegation. they were the first state to vote most -- bigger percentage of women than men in the state legislature. jeanne shaheen made history as the first governor and senator. this state loves electing women.

that's a huge advantage here. they're playing that out. in terms of staff, they kind of want bernie to come out of this looking like a one-trick pony who won baseically his home state, moving to nevada, south carolina, where hilly will win. the race in iowa is tight but they say a win is a win, claiming it as a win. they hope they can just dismiss bernie sanders as a guy who won his home state when david said is not his home state. >> as you put that as an asterisk lead. david, the national poll, the new one, shows these two candidates pretty much in a tie. clinton has 44%. sanders has 42%. are these numbers energizing the campaign? >> stick with new hampshire for one more moment. i do think that if bernie does very well here and hillary doesn't cut his lead to below ten, it does show that his message can resonate with the certain type of voter that she's not reaching that she will need to reach, particularly also in

the general election. but if you look at that new national poll that came out, one of bernie sanders' big endorsers, i was talking to him last night right here, they said, what do you think of this poll? this is amazing. this is great. it shows we have movement. i said, well, perhaps. i want to see one or two more national polls that show it this close. but if they trend in that direction and bernie sanders gets a big win here, that obviously is not good news for the hillary campaign which needs to push this challenge back in the next couple of weeks. >> but does that put confidence in the sanders campaign that it can maintain the momentum, david? >> sure. >> if he wins big in new hampshire. >> yes. >> as annie suggested, the clinton campaign saying this is an asterisk state? >> they're trying to spin it their way. if he gets a big win here and you have a series of polls that show it that close, i mean, that really changes the field a bit. >> it's also great for his money. hess just going to continue fund-raising. he's going to have enough money

to stay in this thing into the spring, maybe into the convention. one bad thing for the clinton campaign is after new hampshire which they're going to lose they're going to tighten the race and try and call it a win potentially. but they go to nevada which is not as a sure thing for them as south carolina would be. so bernie has a new hampshire situation in nevada. she'll win. but if he can show he actually put up a pretty good fight and attracted a diverse group of voters the first kind of actually diverse state we go to, that could make him look alive. mostly like the he does well here and he did well in iowa, he's got money to keep this thing going for a really long time which is not what the clinton campaign was preparing for. >> you bring up nevada, two weeks frommed to, february 20th, clinton is campaigning there today. good to see you both. thank you so much, david and annie. bernie sanders taking a quick detour from the new hampshire campaign trail today. vermont senator is heading to new york to appear on tonight saturday night live with guest

host larry david. if you recall, david does a spot-on impersonation of sanders. it is rich. coming up next, it is of the fuel on the campaign road. that is pizza and politics. which campaign spends the most on pizza? when it comes to small business, she's in the know. so strap yourselves in for action flo! small business edition. oh, no! i'm up to my neck in operating costs! i'll save the day! for plumbers and bakers and scapers of lawn, she's got insurance savvy you can count on. you chipped my birdbath! now you're gonna pay! not so fast! i cover more than just cars and trucks. ♪ action flo did somebody say "insurance"? children: flo!

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there's a snowy scene from new hampshire. and if you look at the weather in the battle against not only their rivals but possibly mother nature as well. potential snowstorm could hit new hampshire on tuesday and could threaten what new hampshire secretary of state says could be a record turnout at the polls. ben carson is fighting to stay relevant this weekend after disappointing performance in iowa. he took a short break in the

trail. nbc is in manchester for us. the doctor has not been a major presence in that state. what is he doing to try to change that? >> good morning, alex. well, first, he's appearing in the state. he has not been in new hampshire very much comparatively speaking. he just held his first public event on friday. so compared to iowa or south carolina this is not a state where his campaign expects him to do very well. dr. carson was speaking with chuck todd yesterday and said he will shift his focus to south carolina very quickly because that's a state that works much better for him with christian evangelical conservatives and with minorities, african-american voters. in the latest u mass poll carson polled 3% here in new hampshire, so there's not a lot of stake that he has here. not a lot of investment that he has here in south carolina. but here in new hampshire. but he is showing up. >> but you know, there are a few weeks to go before south carolina and, as you know, he cuts several campaign staff earlier this week. conventional wisdom out there,

shaquille is not just a matter of when he drops out -- isn't a matter of when, not if. >> well, i can tell you in conversations i've had with campaign aides, that whole iowa caucus night incident with the cruz campaign -- with them alleging the cruz campaign sent out rumors about them dropping out caucus night that really helped him -- helped extend that win portion on your question. he wants to stay in this. he wants to show that he can get momentum back again. he wants to go against what they're calling dirty tricks of the cruz campaign so he and his aides and staff are committed to staying in this as long as possible. like i said, they're pointing to south carolina. super pac has 1700 volunteers that are out identifying voters, passing out fliers and booklets. i was just in south carolina a couple days ago and you saw the win ben, win -- lawn signs all over. it's a state that he wants to do

well in. he thinks he can do well in. i can tell you that after that incident on the caucus night, his campaign tells me that he raised over a million dollars. that's a 300% increase in fund-raising. so he has money now to play around with and money that can extend him further than many people expect. >> okay. shaquille brewster. politics, popularity and pizza. first up, president obama's approval rating. gallup says it averaged 46% for all of last year, up four percentage points from 201 but where did he fair best? the place where he was born, hawaii where he garnered a 58% approval rating. worst showing, west virginia, 24% gave the president a thumbs up. you know these politicians are brutal. they're brutal. >> that is what this campaign is all about. >> and that's what america has to do again. >> thank you all very much.

>> and amid the flurry of the campaign season gal lum's new analysis of paesht affiliation shows the number of so-called red states now out number blue states. 20 states are either solidly republican or lean republican while 14 are solidly or leaning democratic. more conservatives out number liberals in all but three states, most conservative states are alabama, idaho, and arkansas. most liberal, vermont, mass marks and rhode island. the most popular food on the campaign trail, pizza. gawker.com analyzed the spin reports of the campaigns over the past nine months to see who bought the most pizza. the clinton campaign takes the cake, or in this case, the pie, sending $9,000 on pizza. 60% more than the second biggest spender, carson campaign. bush campaign spending the third most, $3600. on the other hand, the fiorina campaign spent zero on pizza. and over the past three months the fiorina folks only went to

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at 56 past, brand new poll out of new hampshire shows donald trump holding his lead there and ted cruz losing a point. nbc's vaughn hillard is joining the campaign for us. vaughn, with a good morning. do you think any of the lingering issues from iowa like what we'll characterized as dirty tricks had an affect on this? >> i've been to about 11 of his rallies here so far in the last couple of days and i haven't heard it come up. i think a lot of people are looking at it as political shenanigans. the facts is that people in new hampshire have been look at these candidates for just as long as iowans are looking. very much independent. they don't like to pick the guy that comes out of iowa. john kasich, chris christie, she's guys have been here for months. to see ted cruz lower in the

polls is not a surprise. the problem is in iowa leading up to the caucus he said he wanted to come out of this place as two-man race. but what happened left is iowa left with a surge in marco rubio. marco rubio is in second only several points behind donald trump. so really the question is going to south carolina, to the extent that he can keep himself as the pro-life, pro-marriage between a man and woman, keeping his message because a lot of they talk with would he change? message of moderate himself coming to new hampshire. and so far he hasn't done that one bit because he thinks he can win with this strong right wing conservatism talk across the country when all is said and done. if he goes into south carolina with that same message it will give him a boost where he thinks it's a place he can win. >> okay. vaughn hillard, thank you from manchester -- appreciate that. the battle of the airwaves, how much the candidates are shelling out to get the word out. a heart attack can happen

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good morning. i'm alex witt in new york. msnbc world headquarters. the place for politics. counted down to new hampshire. a new poll shows at least two candidates making a move in the gop race. we'll bring you the numbers. in the battle of democrats, key questions arise for both candidates. who has the momentum heading into tuesday's big vote? here's what they're all saying. >> hillary clinton does not want to face me in an election but i can't wait to face her or bernie, for that matter. >> marco rubio has been a politician since he was 26 years old. his whole life has been around his whole ambition. >> we're going to take back the billions and billions and actually trillions of dollars sucked out of us by all the other countries. >> donald trump is very rattled right now and his reaction is he got very angry. i assume the next question he's going to ask is how stupid could the people of new hampshire be? >> i am going to keep fighting until the last vote is counted

on tuesday. there's only one candidate who is prepared to do all aspects of the job on day one. >> what momentum is is that in the midst of a snowstorm you can't get all of the people into the room. that's momentum. as republicans gear up for tonight's debate in new hampshire, a new tracking poll shows donald trump leading the field by 21 points. marco rubio dropped a point. jeb bush and john kasich picked up two points apiece. tonight's debate will be the last debate before tuesday's primary. meanwhile, that same tracking poll shows bernie sanders at 55%. that's unchanged from yesterday. he leads hillary clinton by 14 points. she gained a point. here's what clinton told my colleague andrea mitchell about accusing sanders of run an artful smear campaign against her. >> this is an effort by the sanders campaign to basically

say, anybody who has ever taken a donation, not just from wall street, if you take it to the natural conclusion from anyone, is bought and paid for. that is absolutely untrue. >> do you really think he is smearing you? >> i think his campaign which he claims to be a positive campaign has engaged in artful smear, end knew end dend do and insinuatio. >> clinton and sanders will be campaigning in new hampshire today. msnbc is on the ground covering the trump campaign. alex is rubio's team and kristen welk welker. kristen, let's start with you. what is hillary's ground game today? >> well, she is calling in the re-enforcements, alex. hundreds of volunteers from all over the country. this is when you see the clinton machine really get to work. they are going to be knocking on

doors. they're going to be canvassing, urging people to get out and vote for secretary clinton. she is trailing senator sanders here by double digits. so it's going to be really tough for her to come from behind. as we heard from senator sanders in that sound bite he really does have a lot of momentum going into tuesday east primary. take a look at this national poll. it speaks volume, alex. secretary clinton still leading but leading by a very narrow margin. 44% to 42%. you're seeing the polling tighten as you're also seeing senator sanders step up his attacks against secretary clinton. trying to papt her as part of the accomplishment. really criticizing her in recent days for accepting speaking fees from a number of companies including goldman sachs. here's how secretary clinton answered a question from sand degree yamiche chel about that. you remember chuck todd asked if she would release the trabs scripts. take a listen to what she would say. >> i will look at that. i want to get what's behind this. what's behind this is i made speeches when i left as many

people do. other former officials. >> sorry now you did it? >> no, i'm not, because i thought it was a good way to communicate what i was seeing in the world, to answer questions about that. my term as secretary of state. >> reporter: and, alex, i followed up with campaign officials, i said, are you going to release those transcripts. they say they are still continuing to look into that. we haven't seen any transcripts yet. in terms of secretary clinton's strategy, she is trying to rech out to those young people who are flocking to senator sanders in big numbers. she's also reaching out to her base. women supporters, what is so interesting in new hampshire right now, alex, she's actually trailing senator sanders by four points among women voters, in part fueled by the younger women voters. she's got a lot of work to do here in granite state ahead of tuesday's primary. >> which means it's a busy day ahead for her and everybody for that matter including you. well, msnbc's kasie hunt is following the sanders campaign

today. joining me on the phone, on her way right now to new hampshire. good morning to you, kasie. what can we expect today ahead of the primary? >> reporter: good morning. i think the plans were the sanders campaign is to put bernie sanders in front of as many new hampshire voters as possible. he ben ben fits from the fact that they have events that thousands of people have come to. they said coming in here that they had already seen face-to-face 35,000 new hampshire voters and hope to build on that over the course of the next day or so. sanders is also going to be taking a break from the campaign trail for a little while. he has an event this morning that we're on our way to but then head down to new york to make a guest appearance on ""saturday night live"" he's played along with larry david's impersonation of him. larry david joking that sanders only has one pair of underwear. sanders said after that he purchased a second pair. all in good humor. we'll have to see -- waitnd see

exactly what that looks like. but to kristen's point about national polling that's an opportunity for them to try to close the gap, get bernie sanders in front of more -- as many viewers as possible across the country. sanders challenge, of course, maintaining the lead. they know that it's likely -- the race is likely to tighten between now and tuesday. of course the clinton campaign arguing that of course if she's able to close the polling gap significantly, that could amount to a victory for him and his challenge, of course, is going to be able to take whatever comes from new hampshire and move on to some of these bigger, more diverse states which might be a little bit more challenging for him. >> to that point do you think the campaign staff believes they can carry momentum into areas of clinton's strength? as you were talking about, nevada, south carolina specifically? >> reporter: they certainly know that those are places where they have a lot of work to do. i think they're trying to, through their endorsements and efforts, try to make sure they have people who can speak on their behalf to many of the

communities where behind clinton in the polls. the former leader of the naacp endorsing sanders yesterday. he tried actually to get into new hampshire but the snow grounded his plane in albany so it ends up being just on the phone. but it's those kinds of things that the sanders a m pain s ca trying to build on. struggling with all of the things that come when all of a sudden your campaign that hits a note bigger than it was before. they of course now have secret service protection and that's affecting how they plan events. their top staff is still relatively small. they are going to have hurdles as they start to build out and start to face days not just one state voting at a time but super tuesday when you have states trying to get organized and have the campaign focused on it. that's going to be a challenge for them going forward. >> safe travels to new hampshire. we'll speak to you again later today. let's turn to the republicans and check in with nbc's halle jackson and what to

expect from tonight's debate. >> good morning, alex. this morning we are looking ahead to tonight's debate, the last one before tuesday primary. that means you will probably see some fireworks. marco rubio in that line of fire. he will likely come under attack from his rivals chris christie and jeb bush in particular. we've seen the two of them attacking rubio since the iowa caucuses. it's been happening all week. christie going after him for being the boy in the bubble and bush questioning rubio's experience and accomplishments. rubio may come under fire for his positions and for his prior support of that gang of eight immigration bill. immigration is a topic important to new hampshire republicans and given that it may be a vulnerability for rubio in this primary it's something his rivals are likely to pounce on. what are also we watching? donald trump of course will be on stage tonight unlike that last debate over in des moines. we'll see how trump does as everybody yjockeys for this position i head in the first of

the nation primary. >> thank you for that. let's go now to nbc's alex following marco rubio's campaign in new hampshire today. another good morning to you. latest new hampshire poll numbers. just came out from the university of massachusetts, showing rubio holding steady in second place, still trailing donald trump by double digits though. what's he going to try to do to close that gap? >> he's going to be on defense tonight just because a lot of the polls have actually shown him surging in the second place. our own poll out yesterday shown him at 17%, that was a six-point bump in the week since the iowa caucuses. so many of the other contenders that are also vying for sort of the establishment lane in the primary are going to take aim at him. we've seen some of that this week from chris christie, the new jersey governor, whose attacked rubio as the boy in the bubble, as too coddled, too polished, unable to answer tough questions and go off script. that's likely to be picked up again by jeb bush as well who is also competing for that

establishment lane. but he's likely to get some attacks from the conservative in the race. ted cruz who of course has fallen to the back of some of these polls as rubio has risen. but as you pointed out in that new poll it's still very volatile. a lot of the candidates are still stuck sort of in the second place within points of each other. so tonight we're expecting fireworks as they all try to break out. >> that is to be expected for sure. thank you so much, nbc's alex chafee for that. coming up, everybody, we'll be in new hampshire once again specifically manchester. we're going to talk with the republican state chair of the granite state and find out who's got momentum and who needs to do got momentum and who needs to do what to win the granite state"♪ ♪jake reese, "day to feel alive"♪

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give you a look at the flags there in new hampshire. this is what's all over the airwaves this weekend in the granite state. it's about to get more intense, too. new poll says 100 million has been spent on proud broadcast and cable television ads courting new hampshire voters. most of that money coming from super pacs. right to rise, the super pacs supporting jeb bush has spent $1.5 million in ads. super pac supporting marco rubio, $800,000. and the ones supporting john kasich, 10,000 or so less than that. but donald trump has a clear lead but if mr. trump is looking over his shoulder he will find marco rubio there polling second seeing a bump difference the iowa caucus. let's bring in jennifer, new hampshire republican state committee chairman. a welcome to you and good morning, who do you think has the momentum as it stands right now this saturday morning. >> good morning. thank you so much for having me. there's no question there's a

lot of excitement here in new hampshire for a lot of these candidates. it's pretty obvious marco rubio is doing really well and getting a lot of attention, a lot of energy. but the truth is, with about a third of our voters still undecided this morning, there's a great opportunity there for any of the number of candidates. >> all right. jennifer i know that you have looked at donald trump, the strong lead in the polls, leading up to the primary. did the state's republican organization expect trump to be the front-runner at this point in the campaign? >> you know what, what we understand about -- at the state organization here is that the most predictable thing about new hampshire politics is it's highly unpredictable. even at this point going into tuesday, who has the strongest ground game? who is going to be able to turn out the voters? if we get a real snowstorm who is going to be able to overcome that here on the ground? there are so many moving parts here that nobody can -- i've said this all along. don't ask me in junior september or november who is going to win.

you just don't know until the last minute here. >> and who do you think has the strongest ground game there? we keep hearing john kasich, true? >> well, you know what, i'm going to try hard not to grade the candidates. you know, a, b, c here. john kasich has a very strong ground game. a lot of enthusiasm behind his campaign. chris christie had his volunteers out yesterday shoveling sidewalks of undecided voters so that they his volunteers could get to their doors. governor bush has a very large active ground game here in new hampshire. and that's why i say with such a large block of undecided voters anything could happened. and tonight's debate will matter. all those folks in new hampshire who haven't decided yet, they're going to be tuned in. >> what's interesting, jennifer, i know you've gone on the record. you have been critical of donald trump's campaign style and its chances of success in new hampshire. do you think that voting results will be significantly different than what the polls are projecting? >> well, what i think is until

the poll that matters is election day, is what i think. and i think what we do here in new hampshire is really important. you know that traditional first in the nation campaigning where candidates interact directly with the voters, where the voters get to see them face to face, ask their questions, get them answered and go back over and over and over again to really evaluate not just on policy but on heart. you know, who these candidates are and what they're coming from and what their vision for the future of the country is. i think that's really valuable to the whole country and it's something i would hate to see us lose. >> i know that you had nothing to do with this, but i'm curious, do you think carly fiorina should be allowed on the main debate i imagine stay this evening? >> listen, i'm a big believer that everybody should be on the stage. i think the only -- the only process that should be narrowing the field is the voice of the voters. you know, one state has voted. we've got 49 staill to go. i'm a big believer with polls and with all due respect, media

outlets are not the ones who should decide who gets into this debate and who doesn't. at the same time, we know that these are rules that everybody agreed to a long time ago. and i think that -- i really respect the fact that both the rnc and the networks are trying to be as fair as possible. >> i'm curious if you agree with your secretary of state who predicts a huge turnout some 550,000 expected there in the granite state. do you agree with that? do you see anything that could surplant that? >> i learned long time ago if bill gardner says there's going to be a big turnout, there's going to be a big turnout. with the level of interest on both sides of the aisle, it won't surprise me at all. on the dem ek side, that san interesting race. when we see the clear establishment choice really being crushed by, you know, a liberal socialist candidate, that has created an awful lot of interest in this race on the other side as well. >> do you think new hampshire is

going to continue with its tradition of picking the president on the gop side? >> well, you know what, alex, i would actually reject the premise of that question. our first in the nation primary isn't about picking the nominee or picking the president. it's about preserving that really unique american ideal that anyone can become president. our state is so accessible, small, geographically accessible. we have an unusually high level of civic engagement. our citizens are very informed and very involved. this is -- if you're willing to come here and do the work and, like john mccain did, carry your own bags and, you know, like chris christie is, shovel sidewalks and jeb bush and john kasich and marco rubio and every single one of them, i hate to name names because i always forget somebody. if you're willing to come here and roll up your sloeeves and d the hard work, you can become president. >> we got that from you.

so jennifer horn, thank you so much from the republican committee chairman there in the granite state. this morning, a dead heat between hillary clinton and bernie sanders. plus, new hampshire's history of electing women and what that means for clinton. welcome to the world 2116, you can fly across town in minutes or across the globe in under an hour. whole communities are living on mars and solar satellites provide earth with unlimited clean power. in less than a century, boeing took the world from seaplanes to space planes, across the universe and beyond. and if you thought that was amazing, you just wait. ♪ full of guests on the waye

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how important is a win in new hampshire for him? >> you know, after iowa i think it's pretty important for him to maintain his winneriness, his ability to say i'm a winner and everybody else is a loser. but he's also setting the expectations high when he touts the polls, touts the 20-point lead he needs to win by 20 points if he wants to keep that reputation. of course donald trump is a master of spin. he's able to say it win even when he's not. touting that with iowa for days. i think you're going to need to see him come out strong for people to keep believing it. >> erin, this same poll showing hillary clinton in new hampshire trailing by 14 pointses. of course bernie sanders there. but she is not spending the whole weekend there trying to close the gap. as you said, she's flying to flint, michigan, tomorrow. might that be a mistake? >> no, i think it's a very smart play by the clinton campaign. you have bill clinton who just was in south carolina and he is in nevada today and was yesterday. so what the clinton campaign is doing right there is kind of

playing both sides. they're saying we didn't focus totally on new hampshire but she is closing the gap and she has spent a lot of time there. but by going to flint she's showing -- going to michigan, she's paying attention to this crisis in flint so it helps her. sorry to be crass, but in michigan when that state comes up, but it also allows her to say, look, we didn't go all in on new hampshire because we knew we were going to lose there and it provides her some cover when she does likely fall short to bernie sanders on tuesday. >> okay. jane, let's get to marco rubio who has been the number one target for the other republicans even when he was struggling in the polls. let's listen to some just from this week. >> senator rubio gets here, when the boy in the bubble gets here i hope you guys ask him some questions because it's time for him to start answering question. marco rubio has been a politician since he was 26 years old. gifted beyond belief. but he's not from the outside. he's been a career politician.

there's nothing in his record that would suggest that he could make a tough decision. >> i will say this on each of the issues you just listed marco's views are virtually indistinguishable from hillary clinton's. >> rubio surged to second place in most of the polls. have opponents made him now a more formidable candidate? >> i think his third place finish in iowa helped him show he can make this electability argument at every event he is driving this home. i'm the candidate that can go all the way. and i think that the other candidates who think they can go all of the way are definitely going to hit him hard for that because he's gaining momentum here. he seems like a nice middle ground for a lot of voters. in iowa and in new hampshire i hear he's not as brash as donald trump and not as socially conservative as ted cruz. he might be just down the middle for me. and that really works. they also think that here in new hampshire it's slightly more moderate than iowa and i think people think maybe he can get out of here and do well across the board in a general election. that's really important here in new hampshire, voters want to

pick a winner. i think marco rubio is making a compelling element he's just the right middle ground for them. >> erin, can you give me a read on what is the sort of conventional wisdom on capitol hill? are elected establishment republicans rooting for rubio or does he have his detractors? >> i do think marco rubio is top among the political class here in washington, d.c. they're not totally sold on him. people want to see marco rubio come out with some more fight in the next couple of debates. but i would also caution to say that he is not in a solid second place in new hampshire right now. he is bunched up right along with ted cruz and john kasich in a number of these polls. i think tonight we will see chris christie jump hard on marco rubio and the other candidates will probably draft on the fight that chris christie picks with marco rubio. but marco rubio is certain to come under a ton of fire tonight. probably more so than donald trump. and it will be interesting to see how marco rubio handles that. it might be tough with fire

coming from all directions. >> erin, how much do you hear establishment republicans still holding out hope for jeb bush? >> not really much at all. in fact, i'm hearing a big push toward marco rubio instead of jeb bush. in fact, there is some talk among establishment republicans that i've been talking to that there is some sense that jeb bush might be heading toward an exit for some time in south carolina. >> interesting. okay. erin mcpike and jane tim, thank you so much. appreciate it. we're going to check in with the trump campaign to see what the strategy is for tonight's debate. new hampshire officials say they are expecting record turnout tuesday, so big that it will exceed 2008's turnout of half a million voters. the reason for the record-breaking turnout is due to more candidates and more money being spent campaigning. one hitch though, the weather. a snowstorm is predicted for tuesday. and then there's this. new hampshire will be the first presidential primary in which voters will have to show a photo id. some town and city clerks are

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welcome back to the continuing coverage from msnbc. the final days before the new hampshire primary. let's turn now to the bush campaign, the latest tracking poll you're seeing out of new hampshire shows him take ticking up two points there. nbc's jordan frazier is following jeb bush on the campaign trail. jordan, good morning to you. what's on the schedule today? >> good morning, alex. jeb bush will hold one town hall event today as he continues to prepare for tonight's gop debate. the debate tonight will be a big moment for jeb bush as you remember donald trump wasn't on the stage last debate, which some people suggested made jeb bush give a better performance. so with donald trump on the stage again tonight, bush is spending extra time preparing and so he will hold this one event and then go back to some

debate prep. >> do you get a sense that all guns will be pointed at the firing line, if you will, towards marco rubio and how difficult is that considering the history between jeb bush and marco rubio? >> absolutely. just yesterday the jeb bush campaign went on the air in new hampshire with a new ad going after marco rubio and contrasting the accomplishments of rubio versus the accomplishments of bush saying bush is the governor of florida, has more to tout in that regard. in the ad, too, it's a long ad, 60-senl 60-second ad. it shows jeb bush in movement in the second half, walking, running, shows this kind of high energy going against the moniker that donald trump haass had applied to him. so the bush campaign is hard core going after marco rubio today. >> okay. nbc's jordan frazier. thank you for that. that same tracking poll also shows senator ted cruz down one point in new hampshire. nbc's vaughn hillard is

following the cruz campaign for us. what is the message that cruz is focusing on in the granite state, vaughn? hi. he's keeping the same message in iowa as south carolina. the message that appeals to evangelicals to the far right of the party. he's holding on to that message because it's something he thinks can resonate. we saw last night or actually at a ted cruz rally and met this couple here which i think we have a photo of where they saw marco rubio just the night before. and originally donald trump was at the top of their list. remember, donald trump was brought out a lot of new voters into this process. ted cruz's campaign believes all along once people realize where donald trump is on issues, bring the new voters over to ted cruz's side. we saw this particular couple until salem, saw rubio and then cruz. now at this point they say cruz and rubio are at the top of their list because they had intimate moments with them. for cruz, he's got to pass up

new hampshire. this isn't his ground. typically pick moderns. the way they looked at this if ted cruz can hit the ground running the same in iowa, hit all 99 counties, going small town to small town he has a chance to do well in new hampshire. maybe not win but if you pull out a great second or third, you're going in strong to south carolina. visiting places like golfs town where you see it's a little remote but this is where people live in new hampshire and a place where every vote matters in the primary process. >> can i ask you, do you mind stepping out of the way for a second because that is a beautiful backdrop that you have there. it looks like a postcard. there you go. i mean, so goffstown. >> i had to help myself out with my look. beautiful river that runs -- this is a beautiful river that runs through the town here. i came here the other day where cruz had another event. and i see why he's coming back twice. it's a beautiful place. >> yeah. >> really is. >> pristine and lovely. very serene. thank you so much. >> it's not iowa. i've been in iowa for the last six months so it's a little bit

of a change. >> a little bit of a different landscape there in goffstown. let's check in with allawit vitali. donald trump is coming in with a commanding lead. is he going to be the likely target? >> well, i think if you asked donald trump at all of's this deld debates he thinks he is the likely target. but not on the stage these other candidates had issues to hash out on policy differences, on substantive issues. i think that's what we might see more of tonight because there are other, we'll say battles and people who have -- who could have each other in the crosshairs. marco rubio, for example, we've seen surging in new hampshire after a strong third place finish in iowa and a lot of people, especially ted cruz and others looking to take him down a notch. there have been a lot of publications out there saying that marco rubio has got a little bit of a target on his back going into tonight. you're also going to want to look at the governors really put all in in the state of new hampshire. people like governor john

kasich, chris christie, jeb bush. those are people who have paid to play here in new hampshire and who need a strong finish in order to move on to the other contests. so as much as it's about trump and we like to focus on him and he is leading here by a very wide margin, multiple polls. our own included that you have on the screen there. it's not going to be just about him. at least in my estimation tonight. you will see him hitting out at others. we talked last hour about how trump will most likely focus his sites on marco rubio who is coming up on him in the polls. but it's going to be, you're going to see other people head to head tonight and that's a good thing as we head into the new hampshire primary. >> i would agree with you as we have seen when you're at the top or close to it, that's when you get the potshots. okay. good to see you. coming up, what makes new hampshire different than iowa and different than any other primary or caucus state. that's next. americans. we're living longer than ever.

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awaiting presidential candidate carly fiorina. all of the candidates have dozens of events scheduled this weekend just three days ahead of the primary. because fiorina's low polling numbers she did not make the cut for the new hampshire in new hampshire tonight. marco rubio is one of the seven candidates who will be on the debate stage and it comes at a time when the establishment candidate is gaining support there. joining me now, director of the suffolk university political research center. good morning to you, david. thank you for joining me. i know you've been with that research center for quite some time. what makes new hampshire different than any other state when it comes to primaries? >> well, the presence of independent voters or what they call undeclareds here and also the fact they can jump in and out of primaries depending on the environment in each of the

primaries. >> so how does that change the dynamic? >> well, if the races get close, then you will see strategic voting on both sides. now, a week or two ago it looked like bernie sanders in a landslide and donald trump in a landslide. now independents have to pick their spots. in our polling trump is winning by ten points in the latest suffolk poll and we only have the lead on the democratic side as a nine-point lead for bernie sanders. >> okay. >> so this is going to drive -- this is going to drive pollsters crazy for the next two or three days. >> speaking of polls let's talk about this brand new one that suffolk university conduct we'd the boston globe which it shows marco rubio narrowing the gap even more with donald trump coming in at 19%, trailing trump by ten points. your poll, this is the highest level of support that rubio has nuld any poll national or statewi statewide. what do you make of his rise in popularity among the republicans

there? >> well, you know, it's been a big jump, number one the iowa caucuses he exceeded expectations. number two, what we noticed is when you looked at voters of rand paul, mike huckabee, and some of the other people who have fallen in the polls like ben carson, carly fiorina, the number one second choice has been marco rubio. marco rubio is the number one second choice of all the candidates except for jeb bush. so there's no love loss between jeb bush and marco rubio. so you've got the fact that he's breaking undecideds because of the caucuses and that momentum, plus, people are rotating within their choices as candidates become less viable or drop out. >> what do you think jeb bush stands among things right now? is he gaining some polls? put him up a couple of points. >> yeah.digits. we have him ahead of ted cruz bep don't have him out. the problem for jeb bush and this is where it gets crazy is

he shares the same base that john kasich does. so in a way his real challenge is kasich. if bush drops, kasich goes up further. if kasich drop, bush goes up further. you've got that relationship. ironically, although bush and rubio have been at it, rubio needs bush to be viable in order for rubio to make a run at donald trump. they're not liking each other on the campaign trail but rubio needs bush to be viable because the bush's numbers drop kasich's numbers are going to rise potentially catching marco rubio. so it's quite a rubick's coupe on the republican side. >> david, can you interpret the poll numbers to suggest that republicans are ready to choose an establishment candidate over an outsider like donald trump? >> not necessarily. i think the momentum makes the observer believe that but keep in mind one thing, alex. the number one thing is that

donald trump, after tuesday night, will be the only republican who either finished first or second in both iowa and new hampshire. it won't be ted cruz, it won't be marco rubio. so he's going to have a first and a second in iowa and new hampshire. so you can't underestimate that. now, is his 30% -- can it grow? probably it can't. it can't grow much higher. as long as the dynamics are where they are where the second tier candidates are holding each other down and going negative, tru trump's 30% stands taller than the rest. it's not a skyscraper but the 30% stands tall enough. >> john kasich, you have him in third place there. he is really banking on new hampshire. does he have a shot? >> well, you know, he's got a great argument. you know, 100 town meetings and in new hampshire, i've done the time, so it's my time. and, you know that might be the deal breaker between the kasich

voters and bush voters. look at both of them and say we like both of those candidates but kasich's been here, he spent the time and he needs to be rewarded for that. >> all right. david paleologos. thank you so much. interesting conversation. i appreciate it. >> my pleasure. more now on so-called establishment republicans in the field. i'm joined by nbc's kelly o'donnell at the white house. she's talked to several of them this week including chr chris christie, kasich, bush, and rubio. who is the most energized? >> the end is near in terms of days left to convince voters so there was a sense of really grinding it out from each of them. the town halls they're doing, the events they're doing. those take some emotional and physical toll on candidates. they stay after these events and they sign autographs and they take pictures and selfies. it is an exhausting process but one that also they tell me energizes them each in their own way describing it a bit differently. a feeling they're connecting with voters.

i've also found by just talking to some voters who attend these events there might be self selection that goes on. because many of the people when i will say who are you considering, have you decided, you will often hear them say the names of the governors. so people going to these events may be more inclined to be looking for that kind of resume or background which i think is interesting. and a few of the ladies i spoke to said their husbands who stayed home were in trump's camp. so it will be interesting to see if the husbands actually go and vote on tuesday. but in sitting down with jeb bush i talked to him about the pressure he may be feeling and the sort of whispers that are going on, some of them louder than whisper in the republican sort of community, saying it may be time to start narrowing this field, not doing damage to other candidates, like marco rubio, and is there pressure to get out for the good of the party? here's what jeb bush responded to that. >> i would say first of all not a single delegate has been selected. we haven't even gone to the

first primary yet. i would say take a chill pill. let the democracy work. let people go see who the candidates are, what their record is, what detailed plans they have. we have a long way to go. you know, i know that we're living in the tyranny of the present and everything has to be done in the next hour or something like that i trust the voters to decide this, not the pundits. >> reporter: you do hear that and i think actually new hampshire voters understand it because they are living in that bubble where every tv ad and radio spot they hear when they're driving their car is politics. they see the candidates again and again. and they see all of the sort of political tourism that goes along with this primary season, which lots of reporters in town, political operatives in town. it's really kind of an all-in experience for many new hampshire voters. so they get that this is not a judgment in the moment. that they have power in this, a chance to decide and shape the race going forward. and you do get a sense of seriousness from the voters who do want to participate.

alex? >> as always. okay. kelly o'connell. thank you. this is a perfect set-up for what's going to come after the commercial break because what makes the new hampshire voter tick? that's next. ♪ . ♪ sfx: engine revving. ♪ ♪ sfx: car engine. sfx: car speeding away. sfx: car engine. ♪ ugh! heartburn! no one burns on my watch! try alka-seltzer heartburn reliefchews. they work fast and don't taste chalky. mmm...amazing. i have heartburn. alka-seltzer heartburn reliefchews. enjoy the relief. at ally bank, no branches equals great rates.

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♪ just hours into the last republican debate in new hampshire, a daily tracking poll by u-mass lowell and boston 7 news shows marco rubio maintaining his second-place lead. let's bring in neil avec, executive director of politics. where tonight's debate will be held. with a good morning to you. how excited are you about the big debate being held? lots of prep and i should think lots of enthusiasm. >> a lot of enthusiasm, a lot of media. there's over 1,000 members of the media coming. this is going to be a big, big night, particularly for the republicans on stage. >> all right. we've got a lot of logistics, certainly, to handle. let's get right to it, neil, with the tracking poll i was just mentioning. in addition to that, the latest

"wall street journal" poll shows rubio in second place. not leading up to the caucus there, how do you think new hampshire could be different? >> well, i think new hampshire voters are really watching what's going on. they're going out to different locations and testing candidates. a lot of them go to two, three, four, town hall meetings to hear candidates. clearly, rubio has got some bit of a momentum going on. that's very good for him. because if he can become the alternative to a trump win, i think that that would be good. the interesting thing about rubio, he's not necessarily, though, throwing the big passes. he's doing a very conservative speeches, he's meeting a lot of voters. but he's not making any big waves right now. >> do you get a sense, though, his rise in popularity may suggest republicans are ready to back an establishment candidate? >> well, i wouldn't necessarily call marco rubio an establishment candidate. but i think that he may be an alternative to donald trump.

trump clearly has double digit lead here, he's had that for 33 weeks. so if a voter doesn't necessarily like donald trump, maybe they're going to go to someone like a rubio, a kasich. if they can coalesce around someone other than trump, that person, if it becomes a two-man race, it could be quite interesting. >> okay. getting to the democrats here. hillary clinton winning the new hampshire primary in '08, beating barack obama by four points. why do you think democrats are not warming up to her in that state this time around or are those polls a poor reflection of what you think is going on there? >> i wouldn't say they're not warming up to her. i think she is running a very, very good campaign. she's got a great team here. she's doing all the right things. this is about bernie sanders, and -- basically, his message is, i'm honest. and a lot of voters are tied into that. they like it. it has nothing to do with the fact he's from vermont. it's that he's conveying this honesty, and i think it's refreshing for a certain segment

of democratic primary voters. >> neil, can you pick up other places in the country, then, based on this honesty, not just being, you know, from the neighboring state there, where he would pick up other delegates? >> well, i think right now this is the thing about new hampshire. if he wins new hampshire, he's going to get propelled later on in these states. remember, the campaign managers are putting their time and energy in these early primary states. they're not necessarily going out west right now and trying there, other than nevada. so the point is, they've got to win one at a time, and if he does that, he's going a pretty good formula. >> i asked this question before the break. can you tell me what it is that makes a new hampshire voter tick? >> well, this is what a lot of people call our state sport. and we take politics very seriously. we have the highest voter turnout rates in the nation. 550,000 voters are predicted by the secretary of state to turn out, which is amazing. consider this. 1.3 million people live in the state.

and 550,000 people turning out to vote is a tremendous number. this is a place where voters really are voting for someone who can represent all 50 states. they're looking for a president on tuesday, and we'll see if they pick that. >> neil avec, thank you for your time. i appreciate it. that does it for me this hour. i'm alex witt. thanks for watching. the place for politics rolls on with melissa harris-perry. what it really means to be a progressive, next on msnbc. americans...

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(store p.a.) attention shoppers, there's a lost couple in the men's department. (vo) there's a great big un-khaki world out there. explore it in a subaru crosstrek. love. it's what makes a subaru, a subaru. this morning, my question. does it matter if a woman wins the white house? plus, the flint water crisis sparks a national political debate. and sweet honey in the rock performs live in nerdland. but first, policing progressive politics. ♪