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this is the front page story here today. i'm at j.d.'s tavern. politics on tap. it is, of course, three days from the first in the nation primary. the race for voters, especially the granite state's late-breaking independent voters is, of course, in high gear right now. we're first going to go to the republican side. candidates are preparing. the last faceoff -- in the polls he is still up top. >> the person who trump would likely be gunning for might be different tonight. marco rubio is, you can see it here, in second place jumping up to 14%. now, nbc's katie kurr is there at the debate. very early, katie. it looks like you'll have no problem getting a seat from what i can tell in the nice landscape

behind you. this is big-time. usually a debate like this would be huge no matter what, but here donald trump who is a master of drama may have hurt himself with h his. >> i think the two people who have the most to lose tonight and the most to gain are marco rubio and donald trump. he said he wasn't treated fairly by fox news, and holding a fundraiser for vets where he did raise $6 million, and he got a guyed yoez for that, but there were a lot of voters out there who saw it as a little bit of a petulant move. you should be able to face tough questions, even when you think you're not being treated "fairly." he is up by a lot in this state, and, of course, new hampshire is a state that is much more friendly to his message. it fits more -- it fets better

with donald trump than iowa certainly did. he has to get up and there and show that he is confident and can face tough questions and that he won't run away at the first sign of difficulty. i think that their strategy has been more of a 50 state strategy. they're going for delegates, not necessarily wins, and they saw themselves as income a very strong position in new hampshire. all of that polling has them up by 10, 20, sometimes even higher in those numbers. as you know, ari, and you wrote a great article about it, sometimes that polling isn't necessarily that reliable. they have mailers. they have voter registries. donald trump does have the registry, but have i yet to meet anybody that's got know a direct

mailer from donald trump's campaign. i have yet to meet anybody who has gotten a call directly from donald trump's campaign. they do say that they're doing these walk and talks around the state to pump up his message. they do have seven phone banks around the state where they said they make thousands of calls, and they have thousands of volunteers who have made thousands of door knocks. people coming in from missouri. people coming in from connecticut, from massachusetts. a lot of late-breaking movement. thank you for joining us, and she mentions the field program. we've got some field experts rmp joining me now. author of the new book "why the

right went wrong. also on our panel, david carney, white house political director for george h.w. bush, although his son is out on the trail forthcoming in south carolina. pete cavanaugh, new hampshire state director for president obama's 2012 campaign. pete, i go right to you. katie kurr telling us that donald trump, yes, he does well in these big number polls. he under delivered in iowa, and some people said that's because for all the free air time, which, of course, we and other media have given him, he hasn't put in the ground time. >> wasn't here yesterday, and that tells the whole story. even donald trump has been saying how he didn't put enough time in iowa. he didn't put enough time on the ground. he didn't put enough resources in the organization. >> you think about negatives. look at the rise in the number of new hampshire republican

voters. new hampshire republicans now at an all-time high. 37% saying they would never vote for him under any circumstances. from your view as a republican, is that a problem? >> it's a problem in the general election, but we had seven or eight people competing in the primary. trump is going to win. whether the margin is up for debate and, you know, it doesn't matter that 65% of the people are going to vote against him. he is going to accumulate delegates here. the real battle is in the second, third, and fourth place. you know, his polarizing of the electorate won't affect his position until is he the nominee. >> has he demonstrated that he is a real conservative? >> i don't think so. i think that's part of the reason trump is a momentum candidate. a message candidate based on leadership. he says strong things in strong ways and communicates a very simple message.

>> that's fair to say. you talk about moderates in iowa. he did best among moderates and worst among self-identified wfshs. that's a smaller voting universe here. when we talk about strength, rachel maddow had a great conversation with chris christie. i want to play it for our viewers. it also goes to the notion of what happens in these town halls. why this is different than other races. let's take a listen to that. rachel maddow and chris christie yesterday. >> there's some question that maybe your style is a very new jersey style and that combativeness while entertaining on the east coast, may not play everywhere. >> how do you explain trump? i mean, you -- i mean, whatever you want to say and have said about me over the years in terms of things that have come out of my mouth, they're a fraction. i never said that i could shoot somebody in the middle of fifth avenue and i wouldn't lose a

voter. >> this is a guy that's ahead in the polls not only in new hampshire, but he is ahead much more nationally. christie has a real problem because of bridge gate. he could have gone one-on-one as a tough guy against donald trump. the bridge story and the sense that he is a bully and that that might be a negative for him has actually forced him to be somewhat more restrained. he hasn't been able to occupy that space. i think trump has the most to lose here. possibly also kasich and bush. trump really has to win this thing. if he loses, he loses what your own msnbc's jane tim used a nice term that worthy of steven

colberth. he says he loses the winnery thing. for donald trump whose main claim to fame is that he wins and everybody else is a loser, if he is a loser, twice in a row, he has a big problem. he doesn't look like he will, but these polls are not reliable. you've got them moving in very different directions. >> they're not reliable for good reason. i want to you break this down for folks who are interested in how this works. they're not unreliable, right? they're in part ub reliable because this is a place where people are proud to say they're not rushing their decision. polling folks in new hampshire early about who they're going to vote for is like polling a normal person about what they're going to have for dinner next month. an educated guess. okay, maybe i'm a vegetarian, but you want to get exactly, like, is it going to be a california roll? is it going to be chicken dijon with my friend and turkey subtut? you can't get to that will level of detail with eight plus candidates.

how do you deal with that as a field xhalening? >> well, i think part of it is understanding that polls are not flawless. polling is hard, and it's hard -- especially hard in new hampshire and iowa because of the size of the electorate and as you said, there's always going to be a lot of fluidity in the race. then staying up 15%, 14%. if you are the candidate, what do you do with that. do you try to find those new people and make sure they turn out, or are they already if your database sf. >> you should already know who they are, frankly.

he should be going after them. >> what do you think about an organizal campaign here. he is running a momentum campaign. that's why the debate tonight is so important because there are all kinds of people who have to knock rubio back if kasich and bush do not somehow get by him, they have a deep problem going forward. they're going to be going at him. then i think trump is going to be going after both cruz and rub rubio. there's a lot of fire on him. i guess it's a chance to perform well or he may wilt a little bit, and we're going to see what he is made of. >> as a republican, what do you say in the debate? what would be the closing argument? >> this debate will be, you know, important. it's probably back to the -- new hampshire focused debate. it's going to be massively important. it's going to have huge ratings. it's one of the reasons really disappointing that abc, the rnc refused to let carly participate because she's doing better than christie and carson in their own polling. that's a side issue. >> do you think they're biassed

against her? >> i think the establishment doesn't want anymore competition. they -- the three governors are going to try to destroy rubio's momentum, and to do that they're going to bring up the accomplishments. you're going to bring up the phonyness, the -- all these kind of critiques we've seen the last 30 days, and they're going to try to -- that's not easy to do because if you are george -- jeb bush and you go and whack rubio, that doesn't mean the rubio people are going to go to you. they may go to kasich, christie, or trump. it's going to be a very awkward tonight for the second tier challengers to get a foot hold. >> right. >> and try to stop rubio. >> what you are calling second tier, some people call it a lane. there's going to be all that disruption out of those folks trying to merge. that's why chris christie has gotten medieval in his rhetoric. >> this is a desperate gambit to get a ticket in south carolina. one of those guys wants to get

in there. not all are going to make it. >> the 2008 debates. obama and john edward seem to be gaining up. i am convinced that really humble -- >> i don't want to put ow the spot, but that was your idea. i understand pete was -- well, you know, we'll get into that after the break. e.j., i want to thank you for always giving your insights. struggling to win over the key group of female voters that she may need to win big. stay with us. ♪ [screaming] ♪ ♪ the bold nissan rogue, with intuitive all wheel drive.

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>> hillary clinton speaking for the support of young voters in new hampshire. specifically young women. even if she acknowledges some of them don't support her right now. now, she drove home that point campaigning yesterday along side many of the democratic women of the senate as well as the president list in a final push before tuesday ae primary. new polling in new hampshire shows women under the age of 45 do back sanders by a near 30 point margin. women under 45 backing sanders by 30 points. not even close. joining our panel we have our

correspondent for politico, and our panel stays, and is this an age thing or a gender thing, or option number three, a media thing where we try to categorize what -- >> i think it was an awkward statement. you might not be for me, but i'm for you. if you are a woman -- i don't think that hillary clinton ever thought she was going to have a real problem with the women's vote, right, as the first female candidate who has an actual shot at trying to become the democratic nominee. >> let me stop you right there. is it awkward, or is it okay, and not unexpected that young women voters are voting on more than just her gender so there's nothing surprising about the fact that some of them are with bernie right now? >> i feel that it's a serious threat. he is galvanizing the youth vote in a way -- he targeted those colleges in iowa. he did really well there. new hampshire, he has done that as well. as far as what her backing when you look at the visual of women, of senators, of emily's list, of everyone else who is backing her, is it somewhat surprising that she's not been able to -- the margin is really big. it's not like she's losing ten

points there. >> the technical term for it is a blow-out. in iowa where, of course, they came in 50-50 overall, bernie sanders in the entrance polling that we conduct i don't think being the first woman president makes him part of the establishment. i think no matter what your affiliation is it's an exciting prospect for this country, whether it's hillary or carly or whoever it would be. that's exciting, no? >> i do think that what he is tapping into the anti-establishment vote that there is a lot of frustration when you go across to these early primary states, and bernie sanders, like donald trump on the republican side, has really tapped into that, and these are first time voters, maybe second time voters that are looking and taking a serious look at who is going to be the nominee and who do they support?

>> at years ago people around here might not have expected it, but in a couple of days hillary clinton came rushing back. do you see parallels there? >> yeah. you know, i think one thing that gets lost, i don't think barack obama ever led by more than four points in a post-iowa public poll. i think there's perception that secretary clinton came from 15 points down. it's not really the case. sfwli think when one of the challengers for secretary clinton is to win here on tuesday, she's not just going to have to consolidate the voters she had in 2008. she's going to have to pick off some of the edwards voters as well. >> we had an interview with casey on this exact issue. let me play that. this interview. >> do you feel like you

should -- do you feel an imperative to vote for a woman president as a woman yourself? >> not at all. there will be many opportunities to vote for a female, but bernie sanders is a once in a lifetime candidate. he expresses a lot of things that many people have been afraid to express, and you don't see as many people as outspoken and just kind of forward-thinking as bernie is. >> once in a lifetime candidate. that's the message that bernie has resonated. >> the excitement and the ability to, you know, basically give the middle finger to the establishment in d.c. is the free the rigged system. both trump supporters and bernie supporters believe it's rigged for big. big organization, big company, people with big wallets. that's exciting. the tone deafness of the hillary in her campaign, whether it's about the speaking fees or the transcripts or the fact that she thinks people will buy the fact that she's not the establishment

candidate, he is a socialist from vermont versus a sitting democratic senator, secretary of state, first lady who hasn't driven a car since 1991. this is crazy. >> whether it's new hampshire or system system if she's able to make that sell. >> all right. thanks for jumping in. i know you'll be out on the trail a lot. we'll check in with you. another factor to consider in all of these discussions. we've got new tracking numbers out. hillary clinton gaining ground on bernie sanders right in new hampshire. is it enough for her to get out and get another upset like i was just discussing with pete that she had new hampshire in 2008. we're going to look at both campaigns as we continue our live special coverage right here in manchester. stay with us. be good.

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>> i don't think we can say what the outcome is, but we can say whether or not we take something like this and sweep it under the rug and say, eh, it's just the way it is, or are there consequences? >> they said the ted krusz campaign was spreading false reports that he was allegedly dropping out, and the question whether that may have helped ted cruz win a couple of votes in iowa. a big controversy. we're going to ask dr. carson about that sxoursz a whole lot more. he is sitting down for a live interview with me here in new hampshire. 3:00 p.m. eastern time. that's 3:00 p.m. eastern, noon west coast. we just got reports she is out knocking on doors herself. we'll have that story up ahead.

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this is an effort by the sanders campaign to basically say anybody who has ever taken a donation, not just from wall street, but if you take it to the natural conclusion from anybody, is bought and paid for. that is absolutely untrue. >> hillary clinton spitting fire. that was an interview with our own andrea mitchell yesterday. she's going on offense basically, of course, against senator sanders pushing back against the idea that her ties to wall street or her communication with wall street put her somehow on the tape. she also renewed her charge that the sanders campaign is engaging in an artful smear. this morning 7 news, u mass tracking poll shows hillary clinton gaining ground on bernie sanders with a post-iowa bump. this is, of course, three days before this all-important primary. we have nbc's kristen welker nearby in concorde. a clinton event. casey hunt in ridge, new

hampshire, where bernie sanders just wrapped up a rally. kristen, let's talk first about the strategy. big picture. hillary clinton trying to seize on these bernie attacks, turn them around and show that she's a fighter. >> that's right. she has been aggressively pushing back against his attacks accusing them of smearing her. as you pointed out, ari, just a few minutes ago, she's actually out today knocking on doors. she's made it very clear. she may be behind here in new hampshire. she's not willing to give up. i can also tell you that hundreds of volunteers have come in from all over the country to help knock on doors, work on the ground game. secretary clinton telling her supporters don't give up. >> with democratic race growing more combative, hillary clinton and bernie sanders faced off a a party dinner. >> the only way.

>> i will spend all of my tomorrows to make everything i can to make your tomorrows better. >> following a day filled with fireworks. >> i want to say a word to the extraordinary people, particularly young people who are supporting senator sanders. i know you may not be for me now, but i am for you. >> meanwhile, bernie sanders round up his faithful, painting clinton as a part of the establishment. >> in this campaign we're not just talking the talk. we are walking the walk. >> clinton responding to andrea mitchell. >> they're starting to have -- >> no, i'm not. i thought it was a good way to communicate what i was seeing in the world. >> accusing sanders of smearing her. >> i think his campaign, which he lamz to be a positive campaign, has engaged in artful

smear, innuendo, and insinuation. >> with just days until voters have their say, sanders has a double digit lead in most polls. his supporters ready to put a win on the board. >> we as a generation i think are kind of tired of playing the big game and we just want to see things happen. >> she's hoping history will repeat itself. she was trailing barack obama here, but came back to beat him. >> she's behind 20 points. can she come back? >> comeback grandma. >>. >> now, in response to a question from chuck todd during this past week's msnbc debate, secretary clinton said she would look into the possibility of releasing the transcripts of those paid speeches that she gave. i've been talking to campaign officials. they tell me they're still looking into it. no word on whether they're actually going to release those transcripts.

>> can i tell you, going to casey, you can see the crowds behind kristen welker for senator clinton. we were out where heed saying, look, we have a lot of energy in this state, and yet with the bernie sanders campaign, they think these attacks on wall street and the excitement of young people will still hold an edge here. >> that's right. while both sides acknowledge that the gap here is likely to close over the course of the next couple of days, we've seen some evidence of that in the polling already. bernie sanders does, of course, hold a pretty significant lead, and it's really coming as we know among young people and he is also remarkably fielding into hillary clinton's advantage with women. he is actually slightly ahead of her with women and very far ahead of her when it comes to

young women. that in particular i've spent a lot of time over the course of the past few days that weave been here. i'm sorry, feels like a little longer than just about a week, which is -- we got here overnight on monday night. take a listen to what one young supporter had to say when i talked with them earlier this week. >> he has been static with his belief and always had the same point of views and has been saying the same thing since he first got into politics. >> do you think hillary clinton is progressive? >> no. i think she is a moderate. >> as you can hear, the message i have heard over and over again from young people i have talked to is that they really feel like bernie sanders is authentic. he is at the point where a lot of these people think is he really cool, and when you ask

them, hey, why is this senator, he is 74 years old. white guy from new england. why is he so cool? they come back and say almost to a person, he is authentic, he is telling the truth, and that really resonates with me. i talked to one other person who said that he was brooklyn before brooklyn was cool. >> keeping it real never goes out of style in politics. >> i want to bring it back to our panel here. we have pete on the left and david on the right. you talk about realness, authenticity, and you think to new hampshire where hillary clinton had that ultimate moment of realness when asked about her motivation last cycle. let's look at that iconic moment.

>> i couldn't do it if it i didn't passionately believe it was the right thing to do. you know, i have so many opportunities from this country, i just don't want to see us fall backwards. no. [ applause ] >> so -- >> now, that's a moment people remember. what's new is we talked to marion who listened to that. let's listen to that. >> why did so many people connect with her at that moment? >> well, she was letting the public know she was not a political robot. >> do you think you're harder on her than you are on bernie? >> yes. yes. because -- why? why? why? because i want to believe in

her, but at the same time her history keeps popping into my head. it keeps clouding my judgment. >> elections are about moments. is hillary clinton getting to the place where she's not -- to use that voter's term, a political robot? >> i remember watching that in 2008 and even at the time we didn't know what was going to happen on tuesday, but we knew that was going to change the dynamic a little bit, and i think secretary clinton is always at her best when her back is against the wall. post-iowa, we're seeing that in new hampshire. what that moment potentially is i don't know, but i think she's certainly hoping for one. >> david. >> well, you know, it's very fluid. you know, there is fluidity in a primary voter. a thing could change the outcome. we're talking about a massive lead bernie sanders has. 25 to 70 for bernie sanders amongst men. the women's, you know, sort of

mind-blowing. that's sort of almost 3-1 gap between bernie sanders supporters among men. that's almost impossible to overcome. >> she wouldn't let anybody talk about it. >> are you calling her out. we're playing her words. in fairness, here's chuck todd talking to hillary clinton at the debate about that. >> in full disclosure, would you release all of them? >> i will look into it. i don't know the status, but i will certainly look into it. i can only repeat what is the fact that i spoke to a lot of different groups with a lot of different constituents, a lot of different kinds of members about issues that had to do with world affairs. my view on this is look at my

record. look at what i am proposing. we have a vigorous agreement here. we both want to reign in the excesses of wall street. wills a fundamental rift there. look at what i'm propose, and bernie says, no, look at what you have done. >> there is. look, in fairness, three days out, this is not what secretary clinton wants to be talking about. this is not the dialogue she wants to be having right now. i think she needs to hit it really hard in the next 72 hours. not just for new hampshire, but also south carolina and everything else. >> a lot of that, the big chal ebbing to talk about marco rubio who clearly skewed right. ven.

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>> when senator rube wroe gets here, i hope you guys ask some questions. >> marco rubio has been a politician since he was 26 years old. gifted beyond belief. he is not from the outside. he has been a career politician. there's nothing in his record that would suggest that he can make a tough decision. >> marco's views are virtually indistinguishable from hillary clinton's. >> everyone is talking about marco. that may be a preview of what is in store for him in tonight's big gop debate. he had a strong finish in iowa, of course. that gave him big momentum there with just three days here now until the new hampshire primary. now, it's also put him squarely in the hot seat tonight as he is likely to face attacks from all sides. particularly trump who will be back, of course, on that main stage. now, nbc's agabe gutierrez has been following the rubio campaign as it picks up increasing buzz from voters here

in new hampshire. you tacked about all the comparisons people make of him to barack obama. what did you hear? that's been the knock on marco rube wroe. he has been scripted and his lack of experience. many of his critics, especially in the establishment of the republican party, have said that he just does not have the accomplishments to be president. chris christie heard there, as well as swreb bush. certain to be on the offensive tonight during the debate. >> barack obama has been the most consequential liberal president since franklin roosevelt. barack obama got the government to take over our health care, has weakened our military, has

done all sorts of things, wants to raise taxes, continues to grow government, weakened america in the world. barack obama has been effective liberal. we need to reverse that with someone who is committed to the conservative principles as he has been to liberalism. >> i thought that was very interesting there. he does say that the republican party needs someone that can be effective, and in his words barack obama was effective for the liberal side. he didn't seem to knock down that comparison directly, but, of course, he being associated with barack obama in a republican primary would be difficult. his opponents will be on the attack tonight again. arguing against his experience. ari. >> yeah. i mean, gabe, it's fascinating, as you said, because he actually -- you see why he good at rhetoric. you found the way he made that potential knock and turned it into a strength and said, well, even a young inexperienced barack obama had a big impact.

indeed, i don't think that's something that republicans would deny. it's whether they like that impact. the other thing i got to ask you, very basic question, is we are in a basic time frame now. what are you seeing and hearing at the events? this so-called buzz that's in some of the tracking polls, and clearly in the press, are you seeing it on the ground right now around marco rube wrio in n hampshire? >> his crowds have been growing in the past few days and the days that we've been here in new hampshire. at a rally yesterday evening, i found something interesting. voters say the knock on rubio from his opponents is that he is not authentic or scripted. many of the people at these rallies, at least who i spoke with yesterday, say they do believe what he has to say, and they are turned off by the other candidates in the rashgs such as ted cruz and donald trump. they seem to like this sense that marco rubio can unify the party and he has been making that argument in his stump speech that he is best qualified to unify the party, and he is best equipped to take on the

democrats in the general election. some of the voters, again, the ones we spoke with yesterday, they want to hear this type of message and after being turned off by donald trump and ted cruz, they are taking a second look at rubio. >> that is in the data too that we've been talking about, comparing what we're learning on the ground from reporting, away we are seeing in the actual data when the majority -- the mruralty of voters here in new hampshire and republicans saying trump is the one person they wouldn't support. we've gone from september he "strong" or maybe he is mean or unpredictable, and marco rube wroe, if at the end of this thing if nice is an edge in the republican primary, well, that's another place where conventional wisdom has been gone. go ahead. >> no, the big question will be is tonight whether the other candidates and yeb bush can attack him enough and score, you know -- maybe some sort of dent in order to stop that surge. tonight will be crucial, ari. >> we'll be watching it. i know you like katie kurr,

you'll have a front row seat judging by the chairs and thank you for joining us as we continue here from new hampshire. a lot of retail politics in action. stay with us. the future belongs to the fast. and to help you accelerate, we've created a new company... one totally focused on what's next for your business. the true partnership where people,technology and ideas push everyone forward. accelerating innovation. accelerating transformation. accelerating next. hewlett packard enterprise. ... 83% try to eat healthy. yet up 90% fall short in getting key nutrients from food alone. let's do more. add one a day women's gummies. complete with key nutrients we may need... ...plus it supports bone health with calcium and vitamin d. one a day vitacraves gummies. ♪ [screaming] ♪

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we are back, and we have a brand new picture of hillary clinton this past hour in new hampshire out knocking on doors. that's something you see candidates do themselves. she's there walking with some supporters as she moves house to house. again, we just fwot this into our newsroom here. that is hillary clinton making that personal appeal. obviously a lot of candidates do this, but it's not an efficient use of their time. they don't do it for months. they do it here in the close. they do it to show they're appealing for every vote, and for the hillary clinton fans, they will remember she put in the effort last time in the field, in the audiences, in the high school gymnasiums, and that helped her come back. some people are hoping she can reverse a trend here right now. what is that trend?

well, it's bernie sanders who has put up incredible numbers and we should note incredible age diversity. young people powering his campaign. somewhat in the way that barack obama had young people behind him, although bernie's support hasn't been as diverse in every respect. there is passion. we've seen that out here. we want on to show you new reporting of our own. tam ron hall talking to some of those young sanders supporters. >> bill clinton was the one that signed nafta into law so, you know, how progressive are the clintons? hillary has done good things in her past, but she's also been on the moderate, even the right side of things many times as well. better than where i has always stuck to the message of where he stands, and he is always on left. he is the one looking to change for the future, and his big changes might not all happen as big changes, but he has a lot of negotiating room whereas she has minimal changes, and there's no negotiating room there. >> those are the voters, of course, and that's who matters in this. i want to turn back to people

who know this process well. pete cavanaugh who ran new hampshire, turned out for barack obama's 2008 campaign. david carney, who worked for george h.w. bush. gentlemen, when you look at that and you look at the voters and you look at the closing arguments, who can move it at the end here in your final estimation? >> i think bernie has the stronger argument. it's a positive argument. he is not on the defense. the question is whether his voters turn out the same numbers they do in the polls, but i think bernie sanders has run an excellent campaign. it's very authentic. he has a simple message, and he is going to win on tuesday. >> what do you say to people? you know how it is. we have really smart viewers. >> i do think he is running a great campaign. the amount of money he has been able to raise, the energy and efficiency of what he has done, from a technical point of view

is good. i am not one of the republicans who think, you know, let's run against bernie. that energy is transferrable in the general election well, and the trump voters -- not all of them, but there are trump voters whose second choice is bernie. the angst and hatred of what washington d.c. has become is bipartisan and it's deep, and bernie sanders is not a lock for us. >> how about that, pete? one of the things that dogged your candidate initially, maybe harder for some to remember now that he is president, was initially this guy capital win. hillary clinton, especially on background, i mean, we reporters sometimes get the background calls. hey, not on the record, but, from all sorts of people, supporters and officials saying, look, barack obama can't win. for a variety of reasons. some people thought it was race. which was a sort of understandable but ultimately negative view about the rat. other reasons put forward was he was inexperienced. with bernie sanders, can he win

a general election? >> it will be tough. i have no clue what's going to happen here on the republican side. i have no clue who is going to be the republican nominee. i think every race every year every cycle will be about matchup, matchup, matchup. >> but? >> we don't think -- you don't think he can beat -- you don't think bernie sanders can beat -- they put up who might be the strongest. you don't think he is the dem's best choice. >> i don't think he will make an argument that hillary clinton is probably not the better general election matchup regardless of which republican? >> david, final thought. >> i agree with that. i think hillary clinton would be a stronger general election candidate. i think bernie will win, and he deserves to win. the amount of effort and campaigning he has run here. >> all right. david and pete, thanks for being here in the bar with the politics. it's been really fun. we have so much more ahead. i have to tell you, steve is here in the building in manchester, new hampshire. he is going to be up next joined by former new hampshire senator bob smith. he will be back again anchoring at 2:00 and 3:00. i know what you are thinking. that seems like a lot.

we have a lot more. it's just me in the chair. dr. ben carson will be here live. you'll want to hear what he has to say going into the course of the debate, and i'll ask him honestly point-blank about this ongoing feud with ted cruz and what he says should be actability for the cruz campaign's business honesty and the way they've campaigned. we're three days out for the new hampshire primary. live special coverage all through today. keep it right here wash americans. we're living longer than ever. as we age, certain nutrients become especially important. from the makers of one a day fifty-plus. one a day proactive sixty-five plus. with high potency vitamin b12 and more vitamin d.

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but john kasich scheduled to speak this hour. he is the only republican with a scheduled event. we will be keeping an eye on that, and joining he me now from the site of tonight's debate is nbc's halle jackson. halle, this is -- i remember eight years ago this was the night of the democratic side when barack obama said hillary clinton was likable enough. a lot of people thought that moment swung the primary very late. i guess we're looking for a similar moment in the republican side tonight. >> absolutely, steve. those memorable moments. they can have a real impact. just a little bit ago i was down in a diner that 11 of the republican candidates have campaigned at over these last four or five months here, and i had a number of people say to me, hey, we're still undecided, and we are looking to see what happens tonight to make up our minds. you're not going to believe it, steve, but one man tells me he is even dvr'ing it tonight so he can go back and watch it again tomorrow to make sure he doesn't miss anything. that's how important this debate is. the big difference tonight,

donald trump will be on stage this time after raising some eyebrows yesterday with his snow day. >> donald trump, a no show, blaming snow in new hampshire for skipping trait straight to south carolina, but promising he is not leaving the fwran it state in the cold. >> my total focus now is on new hampshire. next week my total focus is going to be right here in south carolina. back in new hampshire he tweeted my 90-year-old mother made it out to campaign during the storm. trump, bashing bush right back. swreb bush has spent $112 million, and nobody shows up. what the hell? it's marco rubio -- it's not enough to just be angry. you also have to tell people what it is you're going to do, and i think the accumulative effect of having done that now

for months especially now that voters are tuning in is really going to help us. >> rubio at tonight's debate sits at the line of fire as the other candidates look to make their mark. this state for some a must win. even as rubio picks up an endorsement from a former rival, bobby engine daul, and takes aim at a current one. ted cruz. >> by the way, you get a call on tuesday night saying i dropped out, it isn't true. it's a lie. keep voting. >> that's a dig whose campaign is accused of playing dirty against ben cruz in iowa. looking ahead and looking confident, though he is slipping slightly in new hampshire polls still at the top tier nationally. >> the two big legislative initiatives that i am running on are repealing every word of obama care and adopting a simple flat tax so you can fill your taxes out on a postcard and we can abolish the irs.

>> including donald trump. trump has really made his campaign centerpiece, the idea of immigration reform and it's something that new hampshire republicans care a lot about. we'll be watching for fireworks on that in just a little bit. >> all right. halle jackson at the site of that debate tonight. that's going to be a fun thing to watch later on. joining me now former new hampshire senator bob smith rsh. is he backing ted cruz and our panel today. senator, let me start with you on ted cruz. let me start with this. this is the latest daily tracking poll. let's put it up there. came out this morning. channel 7 in boston have been putting this out every morning. right now it has donald trump, 35%. marco rubio, 14. ted cruz, 13. you see kasich, bush. that cluster, it is still there. senator, let me ask you the ted cruz supporter.

the track record has been the republican who wins iowa does not do that well in new hampshire. what is the goal for ted cruz in new hampshire on tuesday? >> first of all, aim not buying any of these numbers. that's what they said in iowa that, you know, trump was going to win the blow-out and cruz come out -- came out and won. >> can he win new hampshire? sfleer not going to rubber stamp what iowa it. >> they've been on the ground for the last five days. we've been meeting people, 200, 300, 400.

>> cruz going after the evangelicals in iowa. it's a tougher sell for him here. >> same thing about ronald reagan in 1908. aring was a conservative. he was an actor. he was a light weight. all these -- all this nonsense. same people that were saying it about reagan are saying it about cruz. ted cruz is a consistent conservative bho has the guts to stand up against the establishment in his own party as well as the establishment in washington in general. it's want marco rubio or donald trump that threatens the establishment. it's ted cruz. >> caucus tactics on monday. is the controversy over this slowing the momentum that you got there winning that last monday? >> well, the whole thing -- that was iowa. that's history. we're now in new hampshire.

i just briefly say i was right with senator cruz bh all this broke. i know exactly what happened. senator cruz apologized to dr. carson for it. it was a press release that came out that was on cnn, and all they did was pass it on. it was true. it said carson was going to florida. that's it. nothing else happened. carson increased expectation in iowa, and to the best of my knowledge, i don't know of anybody that changed their vote because of it. it was just sent out because of what was on television. >> let me bring in the panel here. let me start with you. that poll we just put up -- this is something for months before new hampshire we were talking about. trump way in front, and then you get that rubio, kasich, bush, even christie to a lesser degree right now. that cluster, though, of the so-called establishment candidates, has marco rubio's momentum after iowa stalled here, do you think? >> that's it. >> has is it stalled here?

>> sgroot problem rubio has is he didn't invest the time on the ground game. he lags -- he came in third, but goat this perception of winning. he got tons of momentum and media attention and voters taking a second look at him. he wasn't able to work the persuadable voters because they didn't identify enough of their own supporters. they really lost the opportunity to take that momentum and turn it into something solid like a much stronger victory. he could still come in second. i think the battle for second and third is a real battle. trump is going to win. he is going to win pretty handily. the question is who is second and third, and a lot of the governors tried to get a ticket to south carolina. they're going to be -- are they going to sneak into third or second?

i think the new hampshire voters do what they do best. there's only going a few tickets to south carolina. some people may hitchhike there on their own, but, you know, two or three guys beyond trump have a shot at competing in south carolina. >> new hampshire voters -- he comes here with a big win behind and now he is going to do well in new hampshire. new hampshire voters aren't buying it. we don't probably agree on candidates, but i do agree with david that i don't see the ground game here for rubio to propel him up to the top. >> let me use the democratic side here. there's another race going on here. it's a pretty good one. pete, the democratic race, bernie sanders is ahead in every poll we've seen. 20, 30 points we're looking at. realistically, what's the bar for bernie sanders on tuesday night? at what level -- the clinton

people are going to try to say we kept this closer than expected. what's the bar here? >> i think he needs probably to be in double digits, and, you know, the polling tracks show that now. in 2008 hillary clinton started to close. in hibd sight she was winning voters over at the end. are you sensing that kind of movement toward her now? >> i think the numbers lack in close, and this is never going to be a 27 point race or a 25 point race. there is real movement and momentum. whether it's enough on tuesday, i don't know. >> all right. former snoer bob smith and dave carney, thank you. a lot going on here today. a lot going on around us. donald trump not not seen here in new hampshire much this week. including his physical absence in this state, will it hurt him in the primary? next.

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if you were in new hampshire this week in these final days before the primary, you would have had a tough time finding donald trump? that was certainly true yesterday. trump has spent more time campaigning outside new hampshire than in it. he made a curious stop in arkansas on wednesday. that's a state that doesn't vote until nearly a month from now, and yesterday a snowstorm kept him from flying to an event in new hampshire so instead he headed south to south carolina last night. jeb bush trying to pounce on this tweeting yesterday that his 90-year-old mother seemed to have no problem make it to new hampshire in the snow. trump, meanwhile, couldn't. tonight trump will, again, be in new hampshire back on the debate stage as he tries to stave off marco rube wroe and ted cruz. of course, the indications that it's been narrowing after that

result in aiowa. nbc's katie kurr is in new hampshire. she's is manchester outside the republican debate site. katie, what is your sense? arkansas, south carolina staying in new york because of the snow? what is your sense of the strategy behind all this for trump? >> i think the campaign will tell you that the campaign strategy is a 50-state strategy for delegates, not necessarily wins? they'll also say that they're doing really well here in new hampshire, and he can afford to take a day off and rally south caroli carolina. arkansas on super tuesday, which they do believe they'll do well in, because he has been down there more than the other candidates. also, he has 100% name recognition down there. when they leave a place like new hampshire, when they left iowa last week, they would say that this is all part of the strategy. it's never been any different. they've always been going across the map. never just focussing on the first few states, and because of that, they say that even if they

do lose in a place like new hampshire or lose in iowa, they have the ability to move on. they think that their game is not -- it's not the death nail, necessarily. if you lose in new hampshire. others have said that it is. certainly up by a ton of points up here. new hampshire seems to yell with his message. his personality a little bit more. especially when it comes to immigration. that's a message that is very -- people are very reseptive to here. there is an expectation that he should do well here. if he doesn't do well here, where exactly would he do well? had steve. >> all right, katie at that debate site in manchester. thanks for that. let's bring in our panel right now. we have with us the former rnc chairman michael steel and sticking with us, we also -- a former lieutenant governor of maryland. they're sticking -- i'm just reading the prompter here. stay with us as pete cavanaugh, the former state director for barack obama. michael steel, let me start with this. let me tell you what i noticed about donald trump this week.

got to new hampshire after coming in second in iowa. he used a swear, a four-letter word three times in one speech i counted. i said to myself that's the difference between running in iowa where it's almost all evangelical and new hampshire where it's almost no evangelical. you can start swearing again. >> that's right. he felt more at home with that. this is a good match for him. >> this is a really good match for him. polls are still showing he has a good solid double digit lead, and i think katie hit on an incredibly important point that a lot of us seem to forget what this is about. this is not about winning iowa. this is not about winning new hampshire. it's not winning -- it's about amassing delegates. we're in the proportional part of the game. you're going to get a piece. you're going to get a percentage of the delegates. everybody is going to win in that sense. >> does he have to win this state? he is the winner, right? every rally is 15 minutes of polls. >> let's play the game. yes, he has to win this state. a win is a win in their books. he takes that.

he has done the ground game work in homework, if you will, in south carolina. he rolled into south carolina. super tuesday is right on the heels of that. you got the s.e.c. primary, those southern states. he is setting himself up very nicely to do what the key thing everyone needs to do, and that's amass delegates. this is jeb bush's long game strategy as well. you still get delegates. he is amassing the delegates. when he gets to those winner take all states, he has a nice little kitty to spring board from. >> let me ask you this. looking at this race from the other side of the aisle. the trump balloon has been punctured. that's it. he is the winner. he just lost. now rube wroe will be ascending. do you think -- do you think it's been over sold a little bit? >> i mean, two points. one trump has to win. he has to win big here.

the second thing is he is going to look back on this past week as the time where he lost this race. there's zero strategic value for ted cruz in new hampshire. he hasn't spent the time here over the last year, we're and a half, and don't think he matches the electorate well. a lot of momentum coming out of iowa. he should have gone to south carolina where the next big battle will be. what good it does to new hampshire to come in a close third or distant second makes intlooulgts absolutely no sense. >> i've been wondering. i guess if you are the cruz campaign, you might look at it and say, look, pat buchanan won this state. rand paul got 23% in this state. maybe there's a bigger constituency there than just evangelicals that you could win with. >> there is. that's the uniqueness of new hampshire. it is a grab bag. it is a mix. these voters, unlike iowa, they really do have a very strong independent streak about them.

they have the ability to change the course of the race very quickly. donald trump, to your point, should win and win big here. >> you have christie, kasich, rube wroe. how coming out of new hampshire, how does that winnow? who gets to survive from that? is there he align there you can draw coming out of new hampshire? those guys go home. those stay. >> to your point about ted cruz, it's less of a play here for ted cruz. this is a kasich moment. this is absolutely a moment for christie. christie has lost five points from the previous polling. he has to get that back and then some. needs to be fourth or better in order to really sustain viability going in to south carolina, nevada, and the rest of the state. >> is he trying to take out marco rube wroe? >> he has to.

rubio stands between him and that fourth or third place spot. he has to. everybody is focused on the trump-cruz piece. rubio for the governors is the real obstacle because at the end of the day they've got to get over that hurdle. that 13-10 split with kasich and rubio, needs to grab those four points to get ahead of him. he lox in that second place position. the other side suspect marco rubio got -- he is like gary hart in 1948. he rides that wave and beats mondale. let's say rubio beats trump here. i could see a snaree where this republican race ends up being settled. trump is marginalized by two defights. rube wroe beats cruz. that's over. that would be bad news for democrats if somebody could emerge. we all thought this was going to be the most chaotic thing ever. maybe it's a simple matter. >> i think we certainly prefer that this plays itself out until may. no, i think to your point, again, if trump vastly underperforms here, then he is

in real trouble because the entire campaign is based on his or wra of winning is. i think committee do well in nevada. >> we talked to you before this all started before iowa started. you thought trump was getting the nomination. you still think so? >> i still think it's his, within his grasp. particularly to your point, if he does well here, it sets up and given what he is doing now to south carolina and where he is in south carolina, it sets him up nicely. new hampshire, south carolina, back to back wins. super tuesday. if he sweeps southern states, he gets the kind of momentum that he needs to sort of solidify the direction he is going. the fight still sits on the other side. who is going to be the establishment challenge to donald trump? that's where the governors are in the mix, and that's where rube wroe is in the mix. ted cruz, kind of during that fight for whatever is left. >> it's really interesting.

if in the first five months of the phenomenon, all the smart voices in the media. we're dismissing him. they got real quiet. i heard them speeding up against saying, hey, rube wroe is hot. told you so. we'll see if there's them saying that after tuesday night. up next, the new ad running in new hampshire that jeb bush supporters hope will finally turn the tide for them in the granite state. and we're keeping our eye on hillary clinton. she's expected to take the stage for a rally in concorde. not concorde -- it's concorde national yeetd. that's any minute now. stay tuned for msnbc live from the granite state. many people clean their dentures with toothpaste or plain water. and even though their dentures look clean, in reality they're not. if a denture were to be put under a microscope, we can see all the bacteria that still exists on the denture, and that bacteria multiplies very rapidly. that's why dentists recommend cleaning with polident everyday. polident's unique micro clean formula works in just 3 minutes, killing 99.99% of odor causing bacteria.

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big game without back it up. i they the next president needs to be a lot quieter, but send a signal that we're prepared to act in the national security interests of this country to get back in the business of creating a more peaceful world. please clap. [ applause ] >> that is jeb bush in hanover, new hampshire, earlier this week. a moment that got some attention virally. he is hoping for a strong finish at the granite -- in the granite state after coming in a distant sixth in iowa. today's daily tracking poll from channel 7 in u mass across the border of massachusetts does not show him gaining much ground. he is in fifth place with just 10% of likely republican voters. this week the bush family ramped up on the campaign trail. >> if i gave him advice, i would say why don't you interrupt like the other people do? >> really? >> i would say that. >> i've gotten better at interrupting. come on, mom. >> you mean interrupting during the debates? >> yes.

he is so polite. we brought him up that way. he does not bribe like some people we know. >> who are you talking with? >> i can't remember. >> former president george w. bush is making his -- he had a new ad that hitary airwaves in south carolina where heed. >> the first job of the president is to protect america. our next president must be prepared to lead. i know jeb. i know his good heart and his strong backbone. jeb will unite our country. he knows how to bring the world together against terror. >> joining me now is tim miller, the communications drishgt for jeb bush's campaign. tim, you guys have been -- you are focussing on new hampshire. this is where the effort is. what do you need to get out of this state and say, look, we got something out of new hampshire. we can move on to south carolina. what do you need to tuesday? >>. >> we expect to do well here unlike the other campaigns, like john kasich, and chris christie

who have no presence after new hampshire. if they do poorly on tuesday, it's over for them. jeb bush has a national campaign. we're right now in third place in south carolina. we have lindsey graham's endorsement last week. president bush, as you just showed, is up on the air there. we have the best team in nevada with senator dean heller. we're hoping to do well here on tuesday night, but we have a national campaign unlike kasich and christie. that's a big difference. >> you mentioned lindsey graham. lindz where i graham said this. if rubio beats bush badly, jeb is toast. he said bush must either tie rubio or beat him. is that right? >> look, lindsey has been out there really finds for jeb. he is a colorful guy. >> he loves circuits like this, right? >> at least lindsay could name some of jeb's accomplishments, unlike rick santorum. i think him and president bush announcing that jeb is the guy that has a plan to defeat isis. he is ready to be the commander in chief. we appreciate their support on

that, and that's why they're going to play an important role for us as in south carolina when this thing goes down there next week. >> well, let me put it this way. rube wroe got the momentum. at least early on. we saw the first couple of days coming out of iowa. the momentum here. he bounced up to about 18%. today there's indications maybe it stalled. if trump beats rubio by double digits here, if all the momentum we heard about oomg out of iowa rubio still lose biz 10, 15 points here, is that a win for you guys? rubio kind of had the spotlight and didn't do anything with it. >> i think this is a fun parlor game for you at the bar here the next three days, but the most important thing is what you said. no doubt rubio had a little bit of momentum coming out of iowa as did ted cruz. i think what we've seen in public numbers and in private numbers is that that's come back down. what we have here is a four-person race between kasich, jeb, cruz, and marco. we're going to spend the next three days making the case that we're the one that has the best record and the best plans for being the next president out of that crew. >> the four-way tie for second.

i'm having flashbacks to joe lieberman. he had a three-way tie back in 2004. let me ask you, the thing that barbara bush was saying there in that interview, it strikes me the dynamic that we've been watching for the last six months between jeb bush and donald trump up there on this stage. you basically say, look, have you to fight fire with fire. has that been a problem for you guys? >> i kind of would point you more as we're getting to the voting to what she said at the end of that interview, which was jeb doesn't brag like some of the other people we know. jeb has humility. i was at a coffee shop earlier today where somebody came up to me, a new hampshire voter, and said, man, we love swreb's mom. what they love about barbara is the fact that what she represents and what jeb represents is a return to the values that i think a lot of people feel like we've lost in this country. it's a little bit more humility and a little more honor, and i think when voters on tuesday try to decide who to support, they look at trump, and they look at jeb, and i think that they're going to see somebody in jeb that has the values that she share, and jeb will have a chance to talk about that tonight at the debate.

>> how many are left? next wednesday morning, how many are left on the republican side, do you think? >> we're left. that's a question for you. i don't know. besides that, we're focused on our campaign. >> it is south carolina then. that's the test for you guys? you got to win south carolina? >> like i said, man, this is a fun game for you guys, but we're running a national campaign. if you ask john kasich or chris christie's people here they might say we're done if we don't win here. we're seeing positive momentum here and in south carolina. it's going to be a long deal, and wreb is the best guy for the job, which is what really matters. >> tim miller from the bush campaign. thanks for that. >> thanks. >> next, the towns, the cities, the communities here in new hampshire. maybe you have never heard. maybe you have. we will tell you which ones could decide who wins next tuesday night. the bellweathers. we'll talk about that next. try the superior hold...

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you are looking live at a hillary clinton event. the preshow there. she's holding an event in concorde, new hampshire, just a few miles north of here this hour. she's trying to gain ground on bernie sanders, and in these crucial final dates before the primary. earlier today clinton took some time to knock on doors and ask for support telling reporters "it's a beautiful day in manchester." today's results from the seven news you mass lowell tracking poll show clinton closing the gap. a post-iowa bump for the former secretary of state. she now trails bernie sanders by 14 points here in new hampshire. yesterday clinton doubled down on her recent comments about the sanders campaign's alleged tactics with nbc's andrea mitchell. take a listen. >> this is an effort by the sanders campaign to basically say anybody who has ever taken a donation, not just from wall street, but if you take it to the natural conclusion from anybody, is bought and paid for.

that is absolutely untrue. >> do you really think that he is smearing you? >> i think his campaign, which he claims to be a positive campaign, has engaged in artful smear, innuendo, and insinuation. >> and kristen welker is live for us at clinton's event. so, kristen, clinton campaign is behind in new hampshire. they would love to win, obviously, but what are they going to call a win next tuesday? >> well, i think if they can get it down to a double digit disparity with senator sanders, they probably call that a win, but, ari, they are pulling out all the stops today. deploying a new strategy. they are putting out former secretary of state madeleine albright to make the case that secretary clinton is stronger when it comes to foreign policy. i was just able to interview her one-on-one, and i started off by asking her about senator sanders's main criticism of secretary clinton's former policy, which is that he has

judgment and she may have experience, but she looks swrmt. take a listen to a little bit of that interview. >> he says he has the better judgment when it comes to foreign policy. how do you respond to that? >> i find that a passing strange statement because i have been very concerned about his lack of knowledge, and interestingly enough, one of my students just tweeted and said if he were in my class, i would tell him to rewrite the paper. >> wow. >> and because he really, i think, does not know the things. i was really surprised at the answers to his questions in the debate. >> when they were asked about which of the three countries where the most threatening, i think that he gave very kind of simple answers to things. most people know how many dictators north korea has. in contrast to secretary clinton, not only talked about what was going in each of those

countries, but also the other concerns about it and the relationship to each other. what the wraits had to look out for, and i think the hard part here is that foreign policy is difficult. there's for question. you have to concentrate on it. you have to understand it. i think that it's so remarkable, secretary clinton, she understands the relationship of domestic to foreign policy and vice versa, and the various specific facts and how much she worked on it. unless you looked totally different at the time, he has never been to any briefing that whether when i was the u.n. ambassador or secretary of state or since then i have gone up to the hill to brief, and it's not his thing. >> now, i also asked secretary albright about senator sanders' charge that secretary clinton voted for the iraq war. he voted against it. secretary albright said, look, that was one vote. it doesn't make an entire foreign policy, and it certainly doesn't make a plan to fight isis. sort of reiterating what we

heard from secretary clinton when she was on the debate stage this past week. now, steve, make no mistake about it, having secretary albright here is also about rallying women voters. secretary clinton is trailing senator sanders shockingly when it comes to women voters by four points here in new hampshire. they're hoping to rally that part of her base as well. we anticipate the two will be appearing on stage here together momentarily. i also asked secretary albright about the voters here. she said everyone she's meeting seems fired up. we'll have to see. i'll send it back to you, and i apologize for calling you ari off the top. >> i completely understand. i'm usualingly called chris hayes, actually, so this is a new experience pour me. thank you for that report. joining our panel now is e.j., msnbc contributor, washington post columnist, a senior fellow at the brookings institution. also, the author of the new book "why the right went wrong." also, our panel back with us as

well. e.j., let me start with you. you have massachusetts roots. so do i. you'll appreciate this one. paul, my first memory of politics was paul, 1992. he comes up here, and he wins the new hampshire primary by eight points over bill clinton. bill clinton calls himself the comeback kid and anybody says, anybody remembers that new hampshire saved bill clinton. i'm wondering can the clinton campaign pull off something similar this time. if bernie sanders wins next tuesday, and the headline is, wow, hillary clinton kept that closer than anybody expected. >> no, i think that's absolutely right. i'm 100% jealous of you that that's your first political -- you know, i think there is a rule in politics. if you have lemons, make lemonade. it's bad news for clinton that there were polls showing her down as much as 30 points, but those are good news for clinton because snees a position i am

absolutely sure that the comeback kid story is very much in her head, and i wouldn't be shocked to see her out on primary night ahead of better than where i sanders declaring some kind of indication if she closes. >> that's exactly what they did in -- the other thing is you are already planting the seeds. they're planting the seeds already with this talk of bernie sanders next door neighbor, vermont, might as well have grown up in the state. i'm saying this next door neighbor advantage that they're talking about is way overblown. it's a massachusetts advantage. if are you from massachusetts, half the state knows you are from the boston media market. if you are from burlington, vermont, they don't know about all the population centers in the state. >> that's true. i think bernie is present in the minds of a lot of people here. particularly on the other side of the state from us near hanover and lebanon. yeah, they want to make bernie into mitt romney because he had

a big advantage from the massachusetts media market. i also thought it was very interesting that madeleine albright is here because the notion that she's down among women, that is under performing in a big way, and iowa women were keen at creating that how you want to see the tie or victory. >> i have never seen something like this. >> i don't think i have either. i was at the democratic dinner last night sitting near the sanders section, and there were an extraordinary number of wrung people, and i chatted with them. one of the interesting ironies is bernie sanders is 74 years

old. it's a young group of voters. two things about that. one is sanders is still a new thing in american politics whereas the clinton brand is a very old brand, and somebody i was talking to today said, you know, on some levels, sanders is so old that it's really cool for young people, one of them told me, that he is channelling their views at age 74. it is a remarkable thing. clinton has got to keep an eye on that because if she wins, she is going to need bernie to pull those people out in november. i could see some new bernie organization directed solely to turning out young people. >> this is -- it's something to aspire to, i think, as we all get older. we get less and less cool, and then suddenly we reach a point we're cool again. >> every single day i think that. >> all right. e.j., thank you for that. you're looking live on the screen right now at pictures from concorde, new hampshire. that's cory booker, the senator from new jersey. he is setting up hillary clinton standing off to his side there for a big get out the vote rally

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try alka-seltzer heartburn reliefchews. they work fast and don't taste chalky. mmm...amazing. i have heartburn. alka-seltzer heartburn reliefchews. enjoy the relief. all right. you are looking live -- i sound like brent musberger. you are looking at a get out the vote rally. that's senator cory booker from new jersey. hillary rodham clinton healthing, we are being told apparently just told an wroefr flow crowd. i really need you these next three days. we can do this. also looking there on your screen. that is where the final debate will take place for the final republican debate just a few hours from now. a lot going in new hampshire. a lot of candidates right now not out in public. you're preparing for that final debate tonight. much more ahead. our panel right back with us. all the latest on what's going on here in new hampshire right after this. ♪

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all right. we are back with our panel. some closing thoughts here. by the way, there it is, that's cory booker, we've been showing you scenes from the hillary clinton rally up there in concord, one of the final clinton events. the republicans quiet this afternoon as they get ready for their final debate and back now with our panel. let's talk a little bit about the debate, michael steele. what do you expect? we always go into the debate trump is the big wild karlcard, will he attack? he stands back and not on the attack. >> he's learned to do that and he's done it rather effectively. i think what you will see he will not be as on cruise as a lot of people expect him to be. i think he'll downplay that a little bit. he may take a zing or two at rubio. the real challenge tonight will be watching what happens between the governors and rubio because

as i said before, that's their roadblock. they've got to clear that block some kind of way. they've got to show him up to be an experience. they've got to show imup to be not as relevant in this process. >> when jeb bush tried it a couple of debates ago rubio turned that around and threw it back into his face. >> he did. but in the last debate jeb got him with the so did you, marco. >> on the immigration thing. >> there is a sweet spot to go after rubio on, it is immigration. they know that. it will be interesting to see how hard they play it. >> pete, democratic side, hillary clinton making the push up there in concord, showing the scenes from that. i know this is probably not at 2008 levels in terms of clinton versus obama back then but it's starting to get more heated than anybody thought it would be. >> especially on the foreign policy side, it seems like that narrative is beginning to develop like it did in 2008 especially when we talk about judgment versus experience. there's a similar feel to be honest with you and i think that will continue over the next 72 hours. >> does that war vote -- the war

vote gave obama so much fuel in 2008. does it still have that power? >> i don't think so. it's not something you're hearing on a day-to-day basis. it obviously was a huge part of the narrative eight years ago. i don't think it's part of the narrative right now. >> the other question, too, is, does foreign policy even matter to democratic voters right now? >> it's a good question. we saw a clip of secretary albright a couple minutes ago, saying it's never been his thing, foreign policy has never been his thing. it's true. the problem for the clinton campaign i'm not sure foreign policy is anybody's thing in this electorate. >> the striking thing about the debate last night it was wall street, financial, the economy. they were@each other's throats and something he's been saying in 30 to 40 years and when they got to foreign policy the energy went down in that room dramatically. >> it did. and that's what animated democrats for a while, it's the social network, the social

fabric of the country, being able to play to the social safety net, whether on marriage, family issues, educational issues, environmental issues, that's their sweet spot. bernie kind of owns that space to a degree and particularly when he wraps it around wall street and the impact it has on student loan debt. when she shifts into foreign policy, now you're on my turf, now i can play what i know. and this sets up a very interesting dynamic for the fall campaign between hillary and the republicans. if it's a marco rubio, he's going to swing for the rafters on something like foreign policy. hillary may actually shift to start making a more domestic argument debate simply because that's a weakness for her. >> i can hear all the sanders voters out there saying what about if it's bernie sanders? if bernie sanders wins this thing, if he puts up a win on tuesday he's fought her to a tie in iowa, he beats her in new hampshire. six months ago, a year ago, if you said that would happen in

the first two contests, we'd say it's unthinkable and catastrophic for hillary clinton. i don't think it's catastrophic, but how long can this thing go? >> it's a good question. >> the math after new hampshire has always favored secretary clinton and we'll move on to nevada and south carolina and the march 1st pry heimaryprimar. they call saturday moving day in golf. march 1st to me is moving day in this set of primary. you're going to make a move there and it's either going to extend into the spring or frankly it will be over by the time you get to the march 15th primaries. one point on michael's side of the aisle on the debate tonight, the interesting thing the republican debates have been three people, barack obama, hillary clinton, donald trump. this is the first time it will be about a fourth person, marco rubio. he's been very good on his feet but tonight will be important to see if he has a slingshot. >> we've said it the saturday night debate in 2008 barack obama probably lost new hampshire because of what

happened that night. bob dole in 1998 came in with a head of steam, pete dupont, does anybody remember that, hit him with the anti-tax pledge. he wouldn't sign it. he lost new hampshire. no president dole. thanks to our panel for joining us. much more coverage directly throughout the day and the weekend and we're an hour away from msnbc's exclusive interview with dr. ben carson. you're going to want to hear that, so stay with us. americans. we're living longer than ever. as we age, certain nutrients become especially important. from the makers of one a day fifty-plus. one a day proactive sixty-five plus. with high potency vitamin b12 and more vitamin d.

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