i missed a payment. aw, shoot. shoot! this is bad. no! we're good! this is your first time missing a payment. and you've got the discover it card, so we won't hike up your apr for paying late. that's great! it is great! (both simultaneously) thank you. at discover, we treat you like you'd treat you. get the it card with late payment forgiveness. hello, everyone. coming to you live right here from j.d.'s tavern in manchester, new hampshire. we've got the front page here. it is all snow news today and it's a tale of two parties and now 11 candidates. the two democrats on the stump in the granite state, hillary clinton just within the hour rallying supporters and bernie

sanders is going to go we're hearing live from new york on "saturday night." for republicans it is now a game of "survivor" gearing up for a critical debate that could take their campaigns beyond new hampshire. here's what they're saying -- >> hillary clinton does not want to face me in an election but i can't wait to face her or bernie for that matter. >> marco rubio has been a politician since he was 26 years old. his whole life has been around his own ambitions. >> we'll take back the billions and billions and actually trillions of dollars that's being sucked out of us by all the other countries. >> donald trump is very rattled right now and his reaction is he got very angry. i assume the next question will be how stupid can the people of new hampshire be. >> i'll keep fighting until the last vote is counted on tuesday. there's only one candidate who is prepared to do all aspects of the job on day one. >> what momentum is that in the

midst of a snowstorm you can get all of the people into the room. that's momentum. from the candidates and right now hillary clinton is making her case to a rally in concord. you see her there. and as we're going to be doing throughout the day we'll listen in live to events. let's hear hillary clinton live right now. >> executive counselor, dr. susan lyne ofch did so much fors state, longtime friend of mine, terry schumaker. i want to particularly thank mary kay henry the president of seiu. there's a lot of seiu members here who are supporting my campaign. and i also want to thank a great friend of mine from massachusetts, the leader in the fight against hunger in the

united states congress, congressman jim mcgovern and i'm so pleased that he's here as well. i want to start where cory ended. he was quoting maya angelou, one of the great poets of our country. a woman who i was privileged to know, spend time with, and just devoured everything she ever wrote. that poem, that plea that we will rise, is at the core of what i believe about not only america but about americans. i am committed to doing everything i can as your president to make sure our country rises, but also to remove the barriers that stand

in the way of any american rising. there are a lot of issues we have to take on. there are a lot of battles we have to fight. but we can't lose sight of the fact that at the root of the american promise is a belief that each and every one of you should have the opportunity to live up to your own potential, to chart your own course. and when barriers spring up, when they seem insurmountable, when people get discouraged, that's not just hurtful to them, it's hurtful to all of us. i have spent my entire adult life trying to knock down barriers, trying to even the odds for people who needed a voice, a helping hand, an

advocate, a champion. i never thought i would run for elective office, let alone run for president. but i always believed that service is the rent we pay for living in our country, and that each of us -- each of us in our own way -- >> we've been listening to hillary clinton there live in concord. she was citing what cory booker was talking about quoting the famous poet maya angelou and her poem "still i rise" talking about overcoming obstacams and getting back up and she was mentioning at the top. we'll keep dipping in and when we hear news or new things from candidates we'll bring it to you. right now we go to casey hunt who is with the other democrat on this fast-moving campaigning day here on saturday. casey, sanders, he had an event a short time ago. what can you tell us? >> reporter: ari, good afternoon. we are actually on the road on

the campaign trail, so a little glimpse here of what this is actually like, you know, it's more like we're living with old dunkin' donuts and thankfully an suv to deal with the snow. but bernie sanders has actually on his way to new york city, where he's going to appear on "snl" tonight as larry david or bernie sanders or larry david will appear as bernie sanders. it's not totally clear whether bernie sanders will be impersonating larry david or just showing up as himself, but it should be something to watch. but he did campaign here earlier today in new hampshire. here's what he had to say to franklin pierce university students -- >> the only way we deal with the problems is when millions of people, including people who have given up on the political process, young people who have never been involved in the political process, when people come together and demand that we have a government that represents all of us and not just a handful of wealthy

campaign contributors, when we do that there is nothing that we cannot accomplish. >> reporter: so -- what -- >> we've been listening right there to casey hunt. one of the joys of takes the live shots from right inside the car you are as close as you can get to the trail but we lose, of course, the video sometimes, but casey hunt following bernie sanders who will go to "snl," of course, on nbc tonight and a lot of people expecting larry david who is the host to play bernie or bernie to play david we'll see what happens. we have katy tur as well out on the campaign trail with trump. how are you? >> reporter: we're doing well. we're in the debate site at saint anselm college. i'm tongue tied this morning. donald trump will be taking the stage at this debate unlike the last debate we saw in iowa. and the thing to look out for really will be him and marco

rubio. marco rubio is a big target for all of the establishment contenders right now. they want to tear him down because their way out of new hampshire is at this point through marco rubio. of course, donald trump has a lot to lose here. he is the leader in new hampshire, and he certainly needs a win under his belt especially in a state where he has led so much. so, tonight's debate should be an important one, an interesting one, and one that could have quite a few fireworks. >> katy, you think about donald trump and he's been criticized, and rightly so, for some of his comments. but as a matter of pure politics to give him his due, he does know how to attack. we have seen him dispatch with withering sarcasm a whole host of opponents, so as marco rubio surges, give us a window in to something you followed more than any other person in this race. what do you think of marco rubio, he hasn't focused on him much in the past for good reason

in the sense of who was the larger threat. tell us what we might expect on previewing lines of trump on rubio or what you think might happen. >> reporter: he essentially put the knife into jeb bush's back by calling him low energy. he was withering against ben carson and ben carson started to drop. he's been really tough on ted cruz but ted cruz does seem to be weathering that storm. he's attacked marco rubio specifically in the past but not for quite a few months. before he was calling him a baby, saying he was sweaty and calling him a lightweight, also saying he doesn't show up for votes. that was an -- early fall he was doing that when marco rubio was said to be the major contender as people thought he was going to start surging. he hasn't started surging really until right now, but we haven't heard donald trump barely even mention marco rubio's name. the past few days we've heard about ted cruz a little bit in passing, barely mentioning his name as well. but if we do see donald trump go

after marco rubio on stage, i think what we'll get is somebody who's not ready for office. he has not had the proven record. he doesn't show up for votes. somebody who is too young. and he could potentially get into the personal attacks making fun of him for being sweaty, for drinking water during his post-state of the union address a few years ago. but in the past -- >> yeah. >> reporter: -- we haven't seen donald trump really go after his opponents on stage so much unless he's provoked by one of the other opponents first. >> right. as he likes to say, he only punches back -- >> reporter: counterpunching. >> yeah. with all of the -- all of the references to marco rubio, you know, nobody puts sweaty baby in a corner so we'll see how that plays out tonight. thanks for joining katy tur, we'll check back with you. for the rubio perspective we go to dave gutierrez following the rubio campaign in man chest, i'm across town in the tavern.

you sat down with the senator just yesterday. when you look at his approach. early yes we talked about the comparisons to barack obama. what about the comparisons to donald trump and the other people for all the buzz about rubio he's still behind them. how does he position himself tonight? >> reporter: well, ari, over the last few days marco rubio has really gone out of his way to really not attack any of the other candidates. he's been asked several questions about donald trump during the town hall meetings and he's really delivered glancing blows just saying something very quickly that he's best positioned to be president and then moving on. he's trying really to get in to a position where he's kind of above the fray and make that argument that he is best positioned to take on the democrats. and so far hasn't been attacking the other republican field that much. he's been getting most of his direct attacks from chris christie and jeb bush. and the so-called establish candidates. and i asked him yesterday, though, about some of these attacks. here's part of his response -- >> being president of the united

states is not like being a real estate developer. it's not like being a governor. it is about being commander in chief. and on the most important issues before this country on national security, i have shown better judgment and a better understanding than anyone else running for president. >> reporter: now, that is in response to some of that's attacks on him as not being experienced enough as katy mentioned. however, the chris christie campaign has taken out an online ad taking aim at that answer, being very scripted, they set it to elevator music. he's repeated that line, that this is not about being a real estate developer. on some level. he changes it up to not being -- being president is not like being a governor so marco rubio will likely get attacked tonight, a very crucial debate and he'll likely get attacked mostly about his experience. ari? >> gabe, let me ask you one quick question. do you detect not in what senator rubio says, because everyone tries to stay above the fray, do you detect in how he feels any personal reaction to

these attacks which have been, i would say, more personal, more sort of in your face, and often more disrespectful than some other candidates have received? >> reporter: well, ari, marco rubio, as his critics have said, his campaign is very well scripted. so if it is taking effect on him personally, he's really not showing it, but he has his talking points down and he's preparing very hard for this debate. he has a history for preparing very hard for debates. known as a very strong debater because he doesn't veer off script. the key tonight will be will he veer off script. will these attacks get to him. >> i think you make a great point. that's what we'll definitely be watching for because he's excelled with careful rhetoric. debates as you say, gabe, are unscripted events. that will be fun to watch tonight. we'll check back with you. thanks for making some time for us. >> reporter: you bet. now, in the next hour republican presidential candidate ben carson will be here with me live at the tavern. we'll get his read on the state of the campaign. all the talk about his break after the iowa caucuses. you don't want to miss that, ben

carson 3:00 p.m. eastern, noon pacific. and john kasich beating the press at a snowball fight. what is he saying will happen to his campaign? well, he's in high spirits there, using the weather to his advantage, and maybe getting out a little bit of a -- a little bit of aggression. now, later, why democrats cannot see even as we get close to the finish to decide between hillary clinton and bernie sanders. >> something very politics about the way that she talks, and bernie has a refreshing way of speaking. a heart attack doesn't care if you run everyday, or if you're young or old. no matter who you are a heart attack can happen without warning. if you've had a heart attack, a bayer aspirin regimen can help prevent another one. be sure to talk to your doctor before you begin an aspirin regimen. bayer aspirin.

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look at that. we have a little bit of levity on the campaign trail. you're looking at new shots of john kasich taking out reporters. the guy's got an arm, and he

knows how to pack a snowball and that can count here in the primary season. a little fun that they deserve. he was challenging members of the press to a snowball fight. and everything can be contested in politics, but some are saying he won. kasich wrapping up an event here as well in manchester where we are talking to a lot of folks. we're about to go to it. it's one of two events he held this morning ahead of the town hall. it's the 100th he's held and drew his largest crowd yet about 400 people. the latest tracking poll from umass has him tied for fourth with jeb bush and here's what he told blembe berloomberg politic week when asked where his campaign goes after the primary. >> i can tell you for us if we don't do well, we're not going to be dragging around like some band of minstrels that can't, you know, beg people to come to our shows. so, you know, we'll make a hard choice. but i think we're going -- i think we're going to do very

well. here's someone who is betting on the same outcome, tom rath, chair of the kasich campaign and the former attorney general. thanks for being here. >> thank you for having me. >> exciting times, no? >> it's the best eight days in american politics. if you like politics, this is the only place you want to be right now. >> and why do you think kasich is doing well? >> i think because he's connected with voters. when the campaign is able to give the candidate the kind of campaign that they're comfortable with and that they want the candidate performs well. and here, you know, the way kasich performs, the way he relates to people, the town hall forum that -- format you just described, he's comfortable with that. he likes back-and-forth and i think it's caught on. >> i was listening to him yesterday here, it is true, you get to see the candidate interacting not with other politicians, not with the reporters, with the people, okay? and someone got up and said, governor kasich, the world is about to break apart. everything is terrible.

and he said, i don't know about that. he said, well, you know, i remember getting under my desk for soviet, you know, bomb drills. i remember 9/11 when i was working, you know, doing homeland security in the house where he's got a big record. and he gently thoughtful pushed back. walk us through why that matters in your state here. >> well, i think because john kasich has an innate optimism in him that mirrors sort of the american persona. we don't like to give up. he used a line that i keep referring to, one of them is "we'll figure it out." america always figures it out. >> right. >> and that kind of -- and he's calm about it. he's not frenetic. these are big problems. they're important problems. but we solve problems. and that kind of approach, not that the world's falling apart, the sky's falling, i think he's welcomed here. particularly when you're in an intimate setting like a town hall where they can really take the measure of a candidate. >> right. and the question always is does

the measure matter. in new hampshire it seems to matter more. let me put up the numbers here. a suffolk university poll, one-third of republican voters here say they're open to changing their mind. in your math, your guy would say that's bad news for people like trump and good news for him? does that mean can he come in second? >> if anything, i think that's probably understating what they really are. because knowing the new hampshire voter the way i do, they can make up their mind, walking to the poll. something happens at the last minute. they, you know, run in to somebody and have a discussion. our vote in the primary is our most precious political possession. we don't give it away easily. we protect it. because once wednesday comes, you guys just go off into the ether and we become [ inaudible ] exciting again. >> are you having abandonment issues? we're here, we're paying attention to you now. >> no, i'm having a great time. i love it here. we're a purple state so you'll be back here in november.

>> you're right. >> people take this really seriously. we'll turn out probably 70%. there's no plebiscite that big in the country for that test. and it's not just republicans and democrats, it's republicans, democrats and independents. and independents can go to the republican ballot or democratic ballot. they can completely change it. our process mirrors what a general election seems like. >> right. no, that's why, of course, both parties pay close attention. we're talking to you as a kasich supporter, but i want to ask you a question as a former attorney general. you look at these complaints, donald trump saying maybe there should have been a redo in iowa. ted cruz being accused of these violations around direct mail. you got a republican party with several loud candidates basically talking about voter irregularities. is that well founded? are those fair complaints, and is it, in your view wroor, meri bad for the party or hyping something that to be serious? >> i take all that stuff with a grain of salt. you rarely hear that from the winners.

the kind of things they're talking about operate on the margins. it's the core, the message of the candidate. states particularly -- we're a primary. the state's residezy. not the party is ready. we run fair elections. >> but let me push you in iowa, donald trump was saying there are irregularityies do you thin he knows what he's talking about? >> it's up to him he's making that assertion, he's never asked me for advice and i've never given him any. >> what would you give him about new hampshire if you had to? >> i would say work hard here, and don't let the snow keep you in new york. >> and final question, is john kasich really good in a snowball fight or was he lucky today? >> he was spoiling for a fight. >> do we have it? run it if we have it. because that is priceless video. >> he bragged about it for the rest of the day. >> what did he say? >> he kept showing it to us over and over and over again. he loves it. >> look, i would say it's true

in relations between the candidates and the press. there it is, john kasich chucking the snowball. that is a new hampshire original and it works in relationship, too, you have a long discussion with your husband and wife, go out and throw a snowball. >> he's a very accessible guy and he gives it back and forth, you know, he's a wise guy. he banters back and forth. but he couldn't wait to do that. >> thank you for being here. that was awesome to see. ted cruz also holding steady in these polls. who will go after him in the debate, trump, rubio? maybe kasich who is coming up. we'll hear directly from a ted cruz campaign official next. ♪ ♪ the bold nissan rogue, with intuitive all wheel drive. because winter needs a hero.

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aleve pm for a better am. we are back live in new hampshire with our primary coverage and we got a look at front pages here locally. "the union leader" from here in manchester articles on the upcoming snowstorm wreaking havoc and donald trump and carly fiorina and jeb bush and then, "the concord monitor" has a story on bob dole calling ted cruz not a conservative but an extremist. ted cruz holding steady in

third place in the new hampshire polling. the latest university of massachusetts poll there has him at basically 13%, so down 1 point from the day before. all pretty good for a state he wasn't supposed to do that well in. now we have ted cruz campaign state chairman steve lonegan from new jersey. how are you? >> great. >> you are out stumping? >> i'm out speaking on the senator's behalf. >> let me start with a challenge, not so much to you but to how ted cruz was supposed to do. the idea is new hampshire is not friendly republican territory for him, true or false? >> that's true. and identify think people have a somewhat low expectations for the senator which i predict he will exceed the expectations. i won't predict a win. i don't want to raise those expectations. the real battle here may be between marco rubio and donald trump, but the big thing is whoever loses that race will be out of the race. but ted cruz can come in a solid third. he'll do very well. roll into south carolina and rack up a big victory. >> so, that basic theory of that

approach here is that ted cruz keeps coming in, in the top two or three, keeps getting deleg e delegates, and as other drops he consolidates some sort of hyperconservative anti-trump vote? >> i don't know if it's hyperconservative, it's just solidly consistent conservative. >> is it caffeinated conservative, what would you say it is? >> the senator comes out of iowa with a decisive win. we didn't just win, we won by 6,000 votes in every single demographic frgroup out of ther. we roll out of iowa with $21 million cash on hand into new hampshire and we'll do very, very well and on to south carolina with a victory. this is how you have to compete but it's called consistency and it's something people have counted on from ted cruz through his entire political career and something we can count on when he goes to the white house >> in iowa other respected conservative like ben carson said ted cruz lied his way to

victory. >> he didn't say he lied. he said the message on cnn was confusing and unclear -- >> was it true? were those calls true? >> yeah, the fact that cnn reported that ben carson said he was going to go off to -- i think it was jake tapper and dana -- i'm not sure who the woman reporter was but that he was questigoing to leave and gow hampshire but he was going to go back to florida -- >> people say a lot of things. >> the campaign never said ben carson was going to drop out of the race. here's the cnn story ben carson is going on to do something else after new hampshire. but this is the remarkable thing, ari, this one tweet is the most powerful campaign message ever sent out in the history of all politics, right? it outproduced all the mail, all the television, all the radio, everything. one tweet. >> explain your sarcasm. >> exactly this, about five minutes before the caucuses started one tweet goes out. and that tweet shifts the entire

campaign. it wasn't the tv ads or grassroots work and the millions of dollars of radio and television, it was the one single tweet. the absurdity is beyond me. i would challenge these people find me two people that actually signed an affidavit that they switched votes because of that tweet. you won't find any. >> an affidavit is a high bar. let me ask you turning to politicians and the comparisons. does ted cruz basically get to go and make the argument that it's if a cruz, trump, rubio fight there's really only one conservative choice? is that what this comes down to? >> here's my question for the voters out there who think that marco rubio is a conservative. i want them to name three things marco rubio has fought for in the u.s. senate other than chuck schumer's gang of eight amnesty bill. name three things. you can't. but i can name a dozen things that ted cruz has fought for including a 21-hour filibuster to stop obamacare and including fighting the iranian treaty and including fighting for the

defunding of planned parenthood. i want to remind voters that marco rubio didn't show up for the vote. >> the rubio team would say he fought for things about toughening up on hezbollah, a serious thing that he understands, the amnesty bill as you put it was a chance to make border security progress and breakthrough. >> tell that to my conservative voters across the station that the amnesty bill was something good. it was not. and jeff sessions of alabama said if it wasn't for ted crude that bill may have passed. >> well, sir, you got your details down pat, so you are a good one to talk to. appreciate you making time for us on a busy day. >> thank you. >> steve lonegan chair for the cruz campaign. jeb bush has his mom out there, barbara bush. was engineered...

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welcome back. giving you msnbc live special coverage right from new hampshire where the big praise is unfolding. hillary clinton just wrapped up a campaign event about 20 minutes here. she was with senator cory booker an endorser and she's on to another one in the state, that will start in about an hour. we'll bring you sound as they unfold. meanwhile, republicans done campaigning for the day because they're all getting ready for the biggest campaign event this weekend another debate down the street. carly fiorina won't be on the stage, she didn't qualify. in a town hall earlier a banner read behind her " #letcarl " #letcarliedebate. >> i thought the people of new hampshire had a responsibility to vote and pick presidents, but apparently the media establishment, the political establishment have decided they know better than you. joining me now here in manchester, no better guests

than two people from the establishment, "washington post" columnist e.j. dionne who has a book "why the right went wrong" and jeff o'keefe. i say it half in jest and half in not. if you call it straight when you show up at these events, some of them, when you talk to people, some of them, they say you and you and me, we are part of the problem. the media is not fair to some of these republicans and the establishment must be broken. and they don't just mean candidates like jeb bush, they mean the entire washington cartel as ted cruz would put it. what is that energy about? is it at all rooted in any fair criticism or is it beside the point, e.j.? >> first of all, we can prove we're part of the establishment by vigorously denying it and everybody would say you're just like everybody else in the establishment. i mean, there are two things. one, the republicans and the conservatives since goldwater's election have said that the press is liberal. >> right. >> so, this is a popular line of argument with the republican

base. so, you never lose by saying that. secondly, the irony here is if the media has helped anyone in this race, it's donald trump. >> no question. >> a guy who is running against the establishment. if you look at time on a television particularly cable television, it's trump who has gotten it. i think the guy who may have the best complaint is ted cruz, where he has won iowa, but so much of the focus of the coverage has been on marco rubio, who is kind of by default the establishment candidate. >> right. >> so, i think if you're a cruz person, maybe you have a legitimate beef. >> right. although when you look at bernie sanders' speech out of iowa monday night, he was also media ad and moving from the media establishment to the so-called political establishment, to the politicians. what ted cruz has been tapping into, right, is this idea that establishment republicans are too quick to cut deals. now you have jeb bush who many

would say is of that milieu, he's calling out backbone. he's saying he'll stand up to that. take a listen to this new jeb bush ad -- >> the question is what kind of president do you want. do you want a president who has a backbone? do you want a president who will actually stand on principle and will fight for what he believes in? or do you want a president it's all about them? where their ambition drives everything. >> jeb taking a popular discussion point and turning it, maybe against trump, saying it can't be all about your personality. >> oh, it's totally against trump. it's his closing argument a point he's been making for weeks up here in new hampshire. they believe it will help him finish well. we don't necessarily think he'll finish on top. but their argument is, you know, you have to pick a republican who has led, who has accomplishments, and who can -- and who can eventually become president. i think he has really sharpened his message, i would argue, in the last few days even. he's had two pretty powerful

events last night and today, 700 people in bedford, probably his most energetic event. he seems to be finding his stride, guys like trump need to be in therapy. the senators who are leafeding don't have legislative accomplishments to his name. i ran a state for eight years and implemented a conservative record, why aren't you with me. >> not just therapy. twitter therapy. >> twitter therapy. >> twitter therapy. he needs to be in twitter therapy. jeb bush taunting donald trump as well as ted cruz with that line. but both of them hitting on the same idea. >> right. >> that the trump show, the reality show, is a pathetic, crazy mess, not leadership. e.j., i want to read from your most recent column because this entire discussion we're having, what happens in primaries, purity versus pragmatism, it's also happening in a different way on the left as you write. let me read it, most share clinton's view that gradual reform is the most practical way forward but some agree with sanders that even moderately

effective continue to support republicans, democrats are searching for a synthesis between reform and revolution. >> right. thank you for reading that. i mean, i think that there are a lot of democrats who when the issue uis siis single payer ver obamacare are inclined with hillary you can't go quickly to sing er le payer and you would add more people if you go with obamacare. but when you hear bernie say that they need to mobilize young voters and how corrupting the power of money is in politics, every democrat has said that forever. >> yeah. >> bernie is making it a centerpiece of his campaign. >> isn't that the whole thing if you are a base democratic voter the problem with bernie message, hillary clinton is saying look at how amazing this chocolate cake is, you know how good it is. she's saying it's too expensive. she's not saying it's not a good

goal to where we want to go. isn't that a hard thing to say when people want to be inspired? >> in that column i say hillary is trying to sell heroic realism and it's hard to make realism heroic but her basic argument is you may be looking a that olate cake but you'll never actually get the cake and at least i'll give you pieces of the cake. yeah, that doesn't inspire in the same way that bernie does. >> right. >> which is why he's got this extraordinary support from young people and ilthink it speaks to something hillary really has to figure out. she may have a way of making a fundamental change an inspiring thing. it has been in our history, but it's a hard case to make. >> absolutely. ed o'keefe and e.j. dionne i want to thank you both. i got you this cough drop. you've been working overtime for us. >> thank you. >> it's loud in here so -- >> i like sounding like bob dylan, i only wish i had his talent. >> you sound great, e.j. >> awesome to have you here.

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we are back in new hampshire. we've got you covered. the candidates in a battle over not only their rivals but also possibly battling the weather. there is a chance of a snowstorm. it could hit new hampshire sometime on tuesday, and that, of course, might impact what new hampshire's secretary of state just said, this is new, he said this would be a record turnout even above 2008. now joining me to break it down an msnbc contributor and a former bush/cheney specialist. and robert, let me start with

you, you look at all this, and you think about dick cheney, you worked for his administration and you think about the hard conservative root here in new hampshire, balanced against the unknowable, unpredictable independent variable of the independent voters. what do you see coming down the pike here with establishment -- so-called establishment candidates versus the conservatives who have done well like cruz? >> i think new hampshire will prove us yet again that all the pundits at the polls are wrong. remember, back in 1992 new hampshire made bill clinton the comeback kid, he got thumped in iowa against john hearken and mccain got thumped in iowa and came back to win new hampshire. lindsey graham is right, it can be the reset for jeb bush. remember, what's interesting about new hampshirites which is different from iowans, new hampshirite s are not just evangelicals they are fiscal conservatives and what they often do on the republican side they look for candidates that have maturity, that have temperament and also have the experience and judgment and also the vision. and i go back, again, to the

folks that they nominate or, in fact, they elected a couple years ago on the republican side. so, you know, i think this race is still anyone's to lose. i think jeb bush is still the underdog here. i do think that chris christie perhaps could do fairly well here, and just to be very succinct about this, i think new hampshire could throw us a curveball and we'll wake up wednesday morning saying how come we didn't predict that. >> right. well, part of the question, francesca, jeb bush the underdog or is he the runaway dog? is he the missing dog? is he the dog nobody is thinking anymore? because there's a lot of stuff happening. you've been on the road in the field with rubio and christie as well as some time with the democrats. and i know you were tweeting john kasich who wants to be remembered who just did his 101st town hall today that governor schwarzenegger endorsement speaking of celebrities, right? >> unfortunately for him i don't think too many people know about it because he had it on the evening on a friday night that's

not a good time to tout that kind of endorsement. but going back to jeb bush his argument is he is a governor and he has the experience but there are several governors who can point to a recent record who his record is a little bit old. that can work for him in sense that christie and kasich have had recent crises and scandals within their administrations that are thinking are coming back to bite them in the town halls that they are taking questions about. >> you can take a step back from that the top three candidates out of iowa, right, are all new, right? >> right. >> ted cruz is a new senator, right? marco rubio is young and new, that's all anyone knows about him. donald trump came out of nowhere. the fact that bush or kasich could come up is not the mood. >> what i keep hearing is i would vote for bush but i'm worried other people don't want another bush in office is the way that voters are putting it and that really tells you something about bush's chances. >> i know what it tells.

robert, i know what that tells you because when i used to work on 9 on other side, when you call voters, sometimes the nice voters in a lot of states will try to explain why they're not going your way, i mean, without exactly saying it. isn't that a problem there and what is your outlook? >> well, again, i think just to go back for a second here, i think our totally misunderstanding or maybe being slightly dismissive of the new hampshire voter, they're different. and they pride themselves on being different and not necessarily going with the national polls or going with the national conversation. they're very independent thinkers. >> sure. >> to your question, ari, look, the polls have been wrong before. what's interesting about this is that -- is that the polls -- if you take a look at the deeper dive of the cross tabs there, hillary clinton is not performing well with older voters and also quite candidly speaking to your earlier point, the establishment candidates out there are not doing well with the voters. but what's interesting about the voters is they contradict themselves on the crass toss ta

they say they want fresh faces but they also say they're very afraid of an inexperienced person coming into the white house. they kind of want both sides of the coin here and i do think at the end of the day experience is going to outtrump the hyperbole. >> no, that's certainly a fair point and, yes, people want all things, they want it sweet and salty. i want to thank robert and francesca both for being here. appreciate it. looking at the new numbers we have fred yang joining us here, a democratic pollster. fred, we're talking about all of this. why don't you tell me what you see coming down the pike. >> well, i think i see lots of polls. this is a blizzard of polls on both sides. i think robert and others are right. it's a very volatile electorate on both the democratic and republican side. look, i think at the end of the day there's still, you know, three days away from tuesday's a lifetime. there's going to be so much, you know, free press scrutiny, so many events, debate tonight. you know, it could well be a different world on tuesday.

i will say, though, i think what robert said earlier is correct. i think both electorates, the democrats and republicans, will be trying to choose between their head and their heart. and what makes new hampshire so volatile right now in february is we're not talking about april, may, june. this may be the time still when people feel that they have the ability to go with their heart versus their head. the head may come later in april, may, and june. >> well, and, fred, when we think about polling, when we say -- it says beneath your face on tv it says democratic pollster, ie, you've done polling for campaigns not just what most people see day to day which are the public polls. but when you look at the republican side we did an analysis at msnbc all of the spending last quarter and we found donald trump and ben carson who we're about to talk to live next hour weren't spending any money on polls and rubio and christie barely spending any money on polls. the only person that spent significant on it is ted cruz.

given your expertise, can you explain to us, what does that mean? that some candidates are buying polls and using strategy and others this cycle are forgoing it entirely? >> i think for some of these candidates and because the primaries are so volatile, look, if you're done always trump, marco rubio, whoever, you have your lane, and, you know, we -- polls are used not just to predict what the elections are, you know, last week everyone said, oh, the iowa polls are wrong. well, there's a margin of error in polls and maybe the polls didn't quite get the final result, but that's not what the polls are designed to do especially for campaigns. they're designed to help you with strategy and message. and i would -- i would say for those candidates, ari, who haven't polled a lot they know what they're trying to communicate instead of time talking to people like me on the phone they're going out and they're executing. >> wow. a pollster swearing off some polling. fred, thanks for joining us. i want to bring it right back to manchester where we have

former rnc chairman michael steele sitting on a chair, by the way. that's a chairman chair joke and that's all day we've been doing that. >> that's what we do. >> and david core. >> gentlemen, this is exciting. we got the debate tonight. >> yep. >> i don't have a big question. i want to hear what you think. what's going on now? >> i think this will be a little bit of a bloodfest. i think there are camps that need to act and act quickly, particularly the governors' camp comprised of kasich and bush and christie. they have a big speed bump in front of them named marco rubio. they need to take him down and then literally, you know, move him off the -- off the grid a bit so that they can take that lane space. certainly for kasich it matters it matters, jeb it matters. jeb is playing a longer game than the others are, "a," he has the money, "b," he has the organization. he knows he has an opportunity in south carolina and cc states coming up march 1st super

tuesday. from that standpoint it will be great. the trump/cruz battle, my advice to trump, don't engage. you stated the case, move on. you need to solidify your vote here if not expand on it because it will shrink as you some over the next few days. >> trump listens to advice so i'm sure he heeds that. >> i agree with the chairman's analysis. i was just at a chris christie event an hour or two back, what did he spend his time doing? blasting away at marco rubio, again and again. a one-term senator, what does he know how to do? he knows how to handle an amendment to a subcommittee bill. >> right. >> i'm a guy who knows how to handle crises, i went through a storm. >> right. >> he also took his shots at donald trump as an entertainer in chief. that's what he was doing. jeb bush who i saw right afterwards, again, didn't show a lot of opposition. >> right. >> he took a few gibes at trump saying i think this guy needs therapy, i think we can all agree with that, but in any event -- >> we all need therapy.

>> we all need therapy. >> donald trump more than others! and watching marco rubio last -- >> does this thing recline? >> i know, i'm, like, you know, i need the couch. go for it, professor. >> but marco rubio last night was really exuding a lot of confidence and imagery. >> right. >> as caffeinated as ever. again, always -- trying to be mean but be positive at the same time and not attacking his fellow republicans. >> right, but mr. chairman, is there more pressure on donald trump tonight having skipped a debate in a key state and having been m.i.a. and only wanting to talk to his own supporters to come out and actually show he can shine in the serious season? >> i think so. i think there is a little bit more pressure that is self-imposed. i think missing the last debate didn't help as much as they thought it would. i think the kerfuffle over missing the event yesterday here in new hampshire, again, that's all kind of process stuff for him. he needs to come and rise above that. >> right. >> really to speak his message

that has gotten him the double-digit lead that he has here in the state. >> we're out of time but that's where we started the hour because cory booker and senator clinton were quoting maya angelou when i rise again and that's what hillary wants to do and maybe donald trump. >> and the governors. >> the wall, the wall will be 30 feet tall tonight. 45, 50, 60! >> 45, 50. david core, michael steele, thank you. we'll be seeing a lot more of you. that is it for this hour, but at the top of the next hour i'll be right back with you with a live interview here in new hampshire with dr. ben carson. stay with us. in my business i can count on my i.t. guy bailing me out all the time... i'm not the i.t. guy. i'm the desktop support tech supervisor. and my customers knowing right when their packages arrive. introducing real-time delivery notifications. learn more at myusps.com working on my feet all day gave min my lower back but now, i step on this machine and get my number which matches my dr. scholl's custom fit orthotic inserts.

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iand quit a lot,t but ended up nowhere. now i use this. the nicoderm cq patch, with unique extended release technology, helps prevent the urge to smoke all day. i want this time to be my last time. that's why i choose nicoderm cq. at ally bank, no branches equals great rates. it's a fact. kind of like vacations equal getting carried away. more proactive selling. what do you think michal? i agree. let's get out there. let's meet these people. good afternoon, i'm ari melber, 3:00 on the east coast. we're live back here at j.d.'s tavern in manchester, new hampshire, republican and democratic candidates have only three days now left to convince these granite state voters why they shoul