lth with calcium and vitamin d. one a day vitacraves gummies. i'm lawrence o'donnell in manchester, new hampshire, the epicenter of the political universe from right now until about 2:00 a.m. wednesday morning. tuesday night we'll have winners and losers. there will be victory speeches and concession speeches and probably final speeches, as some candidates might decide to drop out of the race tuesday night. the last big event on the republican side of the campaign is the debate tonight, which this time will include donald trump, who said this at his last campaign event in new hampshire on thursday. >> february 9th, you've got to get out and vote. don't think we're going to win. don't think we're going to win.

you've got to get out and vote. no matter where you are, no matter how you feel, i don't give a damn, you've got to get out of bed and vote. we've got to create a mandate. we have to create victory. >> donald trump was snowed out of new hampshire yesterday, but he still holds the biggest lead in new hampshire from today's tracking poll. that's from the university of massachusetts. he has a 21-point lead ahead of marco rubio. donald trump at 35, marco rubio at 14, ted cruz 13, jeb bush, john kasich, 10, 10, chris christie at 4. bernie sanders now has a 14-point lead. bernie sanders at 55, hillary clinton at 41. joining us now from the site of tonight's debate is nbc's hallie

jackson. there's been a lot of who's going after which candidate. i assume it's from which candidate can i steal the most votes. >> at this point it seems that it's going to be marco rubio who's at the center of that bull's-eye who will be the target tonight. let's talk quickly about what each. candidates need to do. you've got donald trump hoping to not drop the ball basically and underperform his number one poll position here. he's looking to keep the course steady as it goes and finish on top in tuesday's primary. you've got ted cruz who basically will need to stay out of the fray a little bit. if he can finish not being the center of attention, that would essentially bow a win for him. this is not the lane he's competing this, this establishment lane you're seeing the real competition in. that's where marco rubio comes in. his campaign knows this, they know rubio will be in the cross-hairs. i'm told rubio will be ready to defend himself. he didn't come to new hampshire to attack other republicans, but if he's attacked, he will

defend. chris christie keeping the eye on the ball in terms of comparing the differences when it comes to experience. perhaps not in attack mode but in contrast mode as his campaign is drawing that differentiation, so look for him to do what he's been doing since the iowa caucuses, which is look at other candidates' experiences, particularly marco rubio, and perhaps hit him hard there. john kasich, for example, we know he was on the treadmill watching the golf channel. he held a rally here. he is looking to continue to stay positive and continue his message of being a little bit above the fray when it comes to what we're seeing in the back and forth in the establishment lane. finally you've got jeb bush, lawrence, who may be following his mother's advice. we saw barbara bush talking about how she hoped to see her son jump in a little bit more, interrupt more. bush needs to have a memorable moment tonight in new hampshire where he's hoping to really make a stand and potentially carry some momentum into south carolina. he had a good day today with lots of people at his big rally. there was an overflow crowd. he needs to have a good night

tonight. >> nbc's hallie jackson, thank you for joining us for joining us, hallie. we're joined now by robert costa, national political reporter for "the washington post" and msnbc political analyst, also with us former republican senator bob smith, represented new hampshire from 1990 to 2003 and is supporting senator ted cruz for president. also with us, david corn, washington bureau chief for mother jones and an miscellaneous nbc political analyst. senator smith, your candidate comes into new hampshire and he is the center of attention for all the controversy that was created in iowa. how do you feel he's defending himself against the accusations coming out of iowa in terms of tampering with the outcome there, putting out this notification that ben carson was dropping out of the race, all this controversy we've seen play out here? >> that's all behind us. the story is senator cruz has

apologized. it was a press report that was simply disseminated. a press report that said mr. carson was going to florida, period, ending of story. the story is mr. cruz had more votes than anybody in the history of the caucuses and he was a big winner there. now he's here. this is new hampshire. >> robert costa, everyone seems to be speculating that marco rubio will be the big target tonight but i don't think donald trump gets over that loss in iowa any time soon. do you expect him to be firing harder at ted cruz or marco rubio? >> there's a sense among many of his rivals that his support here in new hampshire is soft, that they have ground organizations that could inch up their numbers in the final days and as much as they're going to take on rubio tonight, trump is a target as well. >> david, who do you see as being the center of action

tonight? >> well, i think you feel the level of desperation rising. it's almost like a circular firing squad. it's almost like a quentin tarantino movie. everybody is point a gun at somebody else, not quite sure who's point it at them. i saw chris christie this afternoon or this morning at a town hall meeting and, boy, did he try to rip the hide off marco rubio. i thought he wit was a pregame audition for what's going to happen tonight. obviously he needs to stop him. the interesting thing is whether trump will stand back and let everybody else start doing that. we saw ted cruz and rubio in previous debates go against each other. kasich and jeb bush are both kid of inching up in that 9%, 10% range but only one of them can get that reasonable sane republican suburban vote. will either one of them who haven't done much attacking of anyone, let alone each other, try to make at least a strong, sharp comparison. i mean it's going to be kind of

dizzying tonight. >> senator smith, your old friend bob dole is more opposed to ted cruz than any other candidate up there. he says that ted cruz, if he's the nominee, will hurt the republicans badly, will hurt them in the down card elections, hurt them in the state elections, what's your response to bob dole on that? >> first of all, bob dole earned the right to say whatever he wanted. he served this country, he's a good friend, one of the finest people i've ever met and a war hero and everything else. but look, bob dole is wrong. time after time when we nominate the moderate establishment candidate for president, we lose every time in the last several years so we want to win. so this idea that somehow a person that's running against the establishment can't win is nonsense, so senator cruz proved that he can win. he went in a state in iowa which is a toss-up state in the general election. got more votes than anybody, as i said, in the history of the

caucuses. so winning is about standing up for principle and values and it's interesting right here in new hampshire that ted cruz is working very hard with a good field operation, grassroots team, to consolidate grassroots conservatives in the reagan tradition, whereas what is marco rubio doing? he's trying to consolidate the establishment. it's interesting. the guy ran as a tea party activist in florida as a senator and then joined up with the gang of eight and tried to pass a bill that would allow amnesty and not seal the borders. that's not what people are looking for. they're looking for people who are going to stand up for what they believe in and tell the people the truth and that's what senator cruz does. >> senator smith, i've got to ask you something because i think we're seeing something that you and i have never seen before. you served in the senate. i don't think you've ever seen a

united states senator disliked by more united states senators than ted cruz is disliked by the united states senate. he can't get one endorsement out of there. not one positive word about his candidacy from anybody else working in the senate. >> so what? >> have you ever seen that? >> 51,000 people in iowa loved him. they voted for him. he's got thousands of grassroots supporters on the ground here and everywhere all across america with conservatives who are in that reagan coalition tradition who are working vehemently as hard as they can to make him the next president of the united states. >> it's just that the people -- who cares what the insiders feel. we're running against the establishment. it's a badge of honor. >> two words, goldwater. there are two models for what you're talking about. one is ronald reagan, that worked out very well for you. but the other is barry goldwater. and it seems to me in terms of charisma and appeal and crossover appeal, he is much

closer to barry goldwater than he is to ronald reagan. and the dislikability in the senate may mean something, may not mean something. but he is pretty far to the right and he won the evangelical vote in iowa. that was the basis of his victory. that's not the vote that wins elections in places like ohio, florida, michigan, virginia, once you get to the general election. it's a good base to start from, but if he can't get beyond that base, you don't go anywhere. >> well, that's your opinion. and i understand it, i respect it. but look, history shows us that the establishment candidates do not win. so what have we got to lose by trying somebody who really stands up for the conservative values that our party is supposed to stand for. >> two bushes won with the establishment background. they were the last two major republican candidates. >> and when they did, the debt went up to 19 trillion. >> you may not like what they did, but they won. >> but the point is winning is not just winning an election. winning is winning for what we believe in and change the

country. this is not about any particular candidate. it's not about senator cruz or any other candidate in the race, it's about a cause, it's about saving america and changing our culture and turning this country around and getting -- eliminating no amnesty, close the borders, all of the things that we believe in as conservatives. that's what winning means. >> let me go back to this thing about cruz in the senator. you've served in the senate longer than ted cruz has so far. he may have a very long senate career, we don't know how long it's going to be. have you had a chance to take him aside maybe alone in the campaign van and say, ted, you can't say that about mitch mcconnell. you can't go out on the senate floor and call the republican leader a liar. you can't do it. have you had that moment with him? >> absolutely not. >> i'm surprised. >> because i don't agree with what you said, i agree with everything senator cruz did. >> you never called the leader a liar on the senate floor. you never did that. >> senator cruz --

>> you are both creatures of the -- >> let me tell you something, the establishment is the cause of the problem. that's why this tremendous eruption is out there among the grassroots people. we're not winning. >> when you say that, the establishment nominee, be it romney, mccain, bush, whoever it is, has defeated -- the way they get to be the nominee is that they beat your extreme conservative challenges among the republican voters. it's republican voters who rejected conservatives. >> let me ask you, larry, why is it extreme to favor sealing our borders, to not have amnesty to people who are illegally, to defund an organization that promotes abortion on demand and go down the line. all of the -- that promotes more debt, more taxes, more spending. that's not extreme. that's what the american people believe in. >> every one of the

establishment candidates are with you on those points. >> that's not true. marco rubio doesn't and donald trump's record doesn't say that. >> all right, that's going to have to be the last word on the republican candidates in this block. former senator bob smith, thank you very much for joining us tonight, great to see you again. coming up, donald trump has not had a strong ground game in new hampshire. everybody says the outcome here is about the ground game. we'll find out about that on tuesday. and for the first time, bernie sanders has now closed the gap with hillary clinton in a national poll. and right here later, coming up, we have the most sought-after person in new hampshire. we will have an undecided voter sitting right in one of these chairs beside two other voters who have already decided and they will try to convince her to vote for their candidate. that's coming up. be good. text mom.

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my total focus now is on new hampshire and then next week my total focus is going to be right here in south carolina. >> total focus. yesterday donald trump says his total focus was on new hampshire but he said that in south carolina. donald trump never made it to new hampshire yesterday because his total focus on new hampshire did not include weather forecasts predicting that it was going to snow in new york and new hampshire and everywhere in between, making plane travel in the region impossible for most of the day. so donald trump is the only presidential candidate who was not in new hampshire yesterday where the rest of the candidates were totally focused on new hampshire. we're back with david corn, back with us. also with us robert costa. robert costa, so what do we think it means that donald trump has done less handshaking in new hampshire than any other candidate? >> it could have a political

cost. trump has been campaigning all year on ads, on his celebrity, on television appearances. and we saw a little bit of his support in iowa was soft. he wasn't having much of a ground game. here in new hampshire he's doing more in the final few days, but he's not doing the same as his rivals, who were holding many town halls. >> david, what do you think? >> you know, the interesting thing is for month after month after month there was one story of this campaign, it was donald trump. he overshadowed -- >> i remember that. >> remember that? >> is it over? please tell me it's over. >> but now he has to share the spotlight. there's a ted cruz story, a marco rubio story. on tuesday there may be, i'm not promising, a jeb bush or john kasich story, maybe a chris christie story, and of course the bernie story. so he's not one guy and six dwarfs an everybody else, he has to share the spotlight and that's a very different reality for donald trump. i don't know how he's going to

relate to that even psychologically. we'll get a taste of that tonight. >> let's get the latest new hampshire poll up on the screen here because this is an important thing to think about as they go into the debate tonight. as donald trump at 35, has marco rubio at 14, ted cruz at 13, that's a tie, jeb bush, john kasich tied at 10, chris christie out of it at 4. robert costa, define winning for those various candidates there. for donald trump, winning means coming in first and having at least a ten-point lead, it seems to me. what does it mean for marco rubio? what does winning mean for ted cruz? >> at this point though, lawrence, the trump campaign just wants to win. i stopped by their manchester headquarters. there's a sense that though he's way ahead in the polls because of the tightness in this race the final few days they just want to get over the hump. but the real race is for second place. if you can get second place in new hampshire, you're an establishment governor, you're rubio, you come out of new hampshire as much a story as the

possible victor in trump. >> david, right now in today's tracking poll, the fun about second place is we've got a tie. we have a republican tie for second place. if we have that at 2:00 a.m. wednesday morning -- >> well, the interesting thing too, trump -- everyone likes to talk about lanes this campaign season. trump will be in his own lane, maybe it's a jet lane, whatever it is, and cruz still will have a claim on the conservative evangelical movement whatever it turns out, whether he's second or third. he heads south eventually where he should do well. then you have rubio and maybe one establishment guy. so you could have a bit of a jumble. whoever comes in second or third, there will be lots of spinning in the spin room tonight on this and i think there's a lot of settling -- dust settling that will still happen in the weeks ahead. so there will be a lot for us to talk about. >> yeah, yeah, yeah. robert costa, on the democratic side there's an awful lot of talk about hillary clinton's

so-called firewall in south carolina. if donald trump comes out of new hampshire in anything but first place, does he have a firewall in south carolina or are his walls built on that kind of very collapsible house of cards based on the notion that he wins everything? >> south carolina is a crucial state for trump. there's a sense that trump has been winning in the polls in south carolina for months on end. big leads in the poll. this is also a state, lawrence, where in 2012 newt gingrich didn't win iowa, didn't win new hampshire, came back and won south carolina. he did okay with a media savvy campaign. doesn't need to have a lot of ground game in south carolina. that's the state trump could come back if he doesn't win here, but that has to be a state that he wins. new hampshire remains the trump campaign's target. this is a state pat buchanan on, anti-illegal immigration. this is his home base.

>> david, just an exampleynamic electorate is, i was in the store in afternoon talking to an undecided voter. she's undecided between ted cruz and hillary clinton. that's how undecided you can get in new hampshire. >> listen, i was just talking to senator smith who was on earlier, he's making calls for ted cruz to independents who voted republican last time. he has found more than one independent who voted republican tell him when he's calling for ted cruz they're voting for bernie. so go figure. i mean this is -- i don't think anything will be determined. and in fact new hampshire doesn't have a great reputation for picking winners who go on to win in the general election. it's been a long time. you have to go back to george h.w. bush. >> on the republican side. >> and basically back i think to jimmy carter on the democratic side. >> john kerry took new hampshire. >> but he didn't win.

for guys who actually end up winning the white house. >> yeah. oh, that's a good point, winning the white house. ultimately that's what it's all about. >> picking presidents. >> it's not about giving convention speeches and all of that. david corn and robert costa, thank you both very much for joining us. coming up, the latest national poll shows bernie sanders now in a tie with hillary clinton. >> we have to win in november. we have got to make sure we keep a democrat in the white house. >> if you're ready to make a political revolution. ♪jake reese, "day to feel alive"♪ ♪jake reese, "day to feel alive"♪

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does not improve or gets worse. ask your doctor if 24-hour breo could be a missing piece for you. see if you're eligible for 12 months free at mybreo.com. we can tell our story about how we climbed the ladder and a lot of you younger women don't think you have to -- it's been done. it's not done and you have to help. hillary clinton will always be there for you. and just remember, there's a special place in hell for women who don't help each other. >> that was former secretary of

state madeline albright appearing with former secretary of state hillary clinton on the campaign trail for the first time today. a new quinnipiac national poll, this is a national poll now shows the democratic race is now tied within the margin of error with hillary clinton at 44%, bernie sanders at 42%. the margin of error on that poll is four points, which means each one of those numbers might be four points higher or four points lower or anything in between that eight-point band. that is an extraordinary outcome. the last time the poll was conducted, hillary clinton had a 31-point lead over bernie sanders. the poll shows bernie sanders does better than hillary clinton in head-to-head matchups against the top three republican candidates, beating donald trump and ted cruz and tying with marco rubio. hillary clinton ties with ted cruz and loses to marco rubio in those matchups. joining us now is msnbc political correspondent kasie

hunt who has been covering the sanders campaign. >> that's right. the clinton campaign, fascinating to hear madeleine albright right there. they will tell you that they expected that this fight was going to be a long, tough one. that's what they say in public. the reality is they are very surprised at where we are today. on the flip side, bernie sanders and his wife, jane, i think are also surprised by the degree to which people have embraced them and how far this has gotten. we thought we would take a quick look back at how it has come to be that so many people are feeling the bern. >> let me thank all of you. we were told there would be a small crowd here today. wrong again. >> thank you all very much! >> in case you haven't noticed, there are a lot of people here. >> vermont senator bernie sanders is drawing huge crowds, 25,000 people in portland, oregon, last night. >> whoa! this is by far the largest

crowd. >> bernie sanders has gone from way behind to on fire. >> your friends in the media would have told you nine months ago that i was a fringe candidate, not a serious candidate. >> if you raise the issues that are on the hearts and minds of the american people, if you try to put together a movement which says we have got to stand together as a people, that is winning elections. that is where the american people are. >> on monday night we are poised to make history. join in the political revolution. thank you all very much! >> so now it's switched to new hampshire, of course. he has a polling lead. i think both sides acknowledge that is definitely going to narrow, although over the last day or two we've seen a little nervousness from the clinton campaign they can't close it as far as they need to. >> matt riser covers politics for the boston gloechblt also

jonathan alter. jonathan, you've seen more of these new hampshire weekends than any of us, but a special place in hell is a new campaign phrase that i can't remember hearing in new hampshire about. madelieine albright saying wome who don't vote for hillary clinton have a special place in hell it has come to us? >> i think that's going to work for either madeleine albright or his legacy or for hillary clinton. it's kid of a hail all marys pass that is not going to land. but hillary clinton is actually the beneficiary of something that always comes into play at this point in the new hampshire primary, and that's the expectations game. so sanders' expectations have gotten away from him a little bit. so if she pulls within single digits, if she loses by eight points instead of 28 points, she can say she's the comeback kid.

that's what bill clinton said when he finished second to a regional candidate, paul tsongas who was from neighboring massachusetts in 1992. bill clinton finished second and he declared kind of a victory because even though he had been leading earlier, he had been so savaged by scandal that he needed to make a comeback. so if she can close the gap some, she could come out of new hampshire with something. >> but if she gets another poll, another national poll where she is tied with bernie sanders, that's when i think we're going to see a level of panic in the clinton campaign that we have not yet seen. >> this is the worst nightmare for them because the argument all along has been bernie sanders is not electable, he does not have a national skpit ae -- constituency. if he can demonstrate i can go head-to-head against trump or marco rubio, it makes the clinton campaign's counterargument to bernie

sanders a lot more difficult. >> kasie, i want to go back to what madeleine albright said because i for one do not believe everyone speaking extemporaneously should be held to every word they say on the campaign trail as if it is some incredibly carefully thought out attack line. she said that phrase, i think, when using it in a fairly light way, just trying to emphasize, come on, let's kind of get together. let's look at what this is historically, the possibility of the first woman president. >> look, the reality is this is not the first time madeleine albright has said this. this is a quote she's somewhat famous for using. it was printed on the side of a starbucks coffee cup and attributed to her. the fact that everything of course we have to put in context and her using it in this presidential campaign is something we'll hear a lot about. i also think that the attitudes among particularly that generation towards feminism, towards hanging together as women are frankly different than they are now with a lot of the young women in particular who are supporting bernie sanders.

and that sentiment that you heard from madeleine albright is in some ways that original version of feminism that of course many women even my age and younger do feel very strongly about and are grateful for these women who paved the way but it's just not how women talk now. it's just changed very much. and i think she's got a lot of work to do with young people to show that. i'm not sure this is going to go very far in helping her in that way. >> there's actually no history anywhere in the united states of people voting for a candidate because she's a woman. it does not exist. i know ts from personal experience. the older generation, my mother ran for statewide office for lieutenant governor of illinois in 1976. it was going to be vote for a woman. she got crushed. anybody else who has ever tried that has been crushed. women don't vote for women candidates just because they are women. there's no history of it. >> and '76 was maybe the peak of

modern feminism in america if there was ever going to be a way for that. >> right. it just has never materialized. women are too sophisticated in their voting habits to be subject to that kind of appeal. having said that, president might be different. so what we don't know and we won't know until, you know, november if she's nominated is whether at the end there's a kind of a bradley effect, which was the way it was described in racial politics, where fewer people vote for her because she's a woman or whether a lot of women who are older or want to vote for a woman president before they die come out and vote for her in november, even though they don't agree with her on much. >> one reality that women aside, i think a year where being an outsider is so important and being different, the fact that hillary clinton is a woman and the way she's used that in her campaign, more heavily early on than now, it still allows her to say this is a historic first. this is a thing that is

different. this is a thing about me that's not part of the republican establishment and i think that could matter. >> the big gap that also exists in the polls is this age gap. bernie has everybody younger than him in the poll and hillary clinton has everyone bernie's age, she has everyone basically over 60. and there's always that thing about, oh, yeah, but the kids don't show up. the kids don't show up to vote. we'll find out tuesday night. >> and independents too here in new hampshire. independents go more for bernie sanders than they do for hillary clinton. so depending on how those independents play, they could go in the republican primary or democratic primary. a lot of them are undecided which party's primary they're going to play in. i think that will show the margin. if it's within single digits, that helps hillary clinton going forward. >> the young people, they often don't show. if they showed up in iowa, sanders would have won going away. a very small percentage of younger voters showed up then. i'm not sure a lot more will show up in new hampshire.

sanders' big problem, of course, is beyond new hampshire with minority voters. he's not looking even now with his rise in the polls, he's not looking good for winning, say, the south carolina primary. so he won't be a real threat to her and people won't really be wetting their pants in the hillary camp until he shows that he can win black voters. if that happens, it's going all the way to the convention. >> the clinton campaign got a vanload of women senators to come up here to new hampshire yesterday, which is -- i can't imagine anyone running a campaign who wouldn't want that, who wouldn't want that imagery on the stage. and then the kind of sanders' comment to that is, well, of course, the establishment is coming. united states senators are coming. but there's something about the group of women senators that just doesn't quite feel like that old establishment bernie is talking about. >> if you know, if you've ever worked with barbara mccall ski,

i think she would bristle at that. you know, new hampshire is also -- it was the first station to have an all female congressional delegation. their governor is a woman, their two senators, the house seats have switched around a little bit since that was true. but i do think that there's still only 20 women members of the senate. it's still not representative of the country as a whole. >> so you're covering the sanders campaign. that means you'll be down at "saturday night live" tonight. that's where the sanders campaign is going to be. >> that would be nice, actually. i would love to have taken that trip. take it up with lauren michaels. >> go ahead. get in a car, they can get you down there right now. thank you all. up next, marco rubio looks like he's going to be the target tonight in the big republican debate. >> we'll make sure you see a difference between those who are prepared to lead and those who

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in tonight's republican debate marco rubio might turn out to be the most attacked candidate by the other candidates after finishing in a virtual tie for second place with donald trump in iowa. marco rubio has been the target of sharp attacks by his fellow republican candidates. here's chris christie this morning here in new hampshire. >> seven years ago, we elected a president of the united states who had never run a thing or been accountable for any decision he ever had to make in his life to others. barack obama and first-term u.s. senators have no idea what that's about. we cannot have those kind of people in the white house again. we need people who get the job done. >> joining us now, nbc news

correspondent gabe gutierrez, who's been traveling with the rubio campaign. gabe, does marco rubio expect to be the guy everyone is going after on that stage tonight? >> hey there, lawrence. yes, his campaign does expect to be the target of attacks but it says it is ready. chris christie has been attacking marco rubio throughout the week, so has jeb bush. the main thing they're focusing on is his question of experience. i've been talking to voters at some of these town halls, one last night especially, and these voters say that, look, when the question comes up whether or not marco rubio is ready and whether they believe the title that some of his opponents have tried to label him with, which is the republican obama, they say, look, he has more experience than when barack obama was elected. and then when you come back and you say, well, that would be the argument against electing him, and they say -- they move on and say, look, we're ready for something new in the republican party. so the question today will be

will these attacks stick and will convince voters that he really isn't ready. in my interview with marco rubio yesterday, he said he's just trying to get his message cross. that's another message his opponents have, that he's just too scripted. he can't be taken off message and when he does get off message, he appears flustered. the question be will these attacks get to him, will chris christie and jeb bush be able to break through that script that the rubio campaign has adhered to so far. lawrence. >> nbc's gabe gutierrez. thanks for joining us, gabe, really appreciate it. joining us now is charlie pierce, a writer at large for "esquire" magazine. charlie from nearby massachusetts, coming up here for this. you've been watching it closely. this republican fight on the stage tonight is so dynamic. so many of them have so many different incentives to attack different people on that stage. i mean if you're marco rubio, who do you want to go after?

who do you think you can take votes away from? if you're donald trump, who do you think you have to fight off to hold on to this lead? >> i think trump's thing is easy. he has to fight off -- i don't think anybody but rubio can catch him at this point. rubio, on the other hand -- >> so wait, does that mean trump's primary focus should be crush rubio? >> yeah, but i don't think he'll do it because he doesn't do that in debates. he'll do it on twitter and he'll do it on a phone interview or at fox, but he doesn't do that in debates. the only person he's done it do in debates is jeb bush and i think he's done all the damage he can do there. >> yes. >> but i think rubio would be well advised not just to watch out for christie, but he's the kind of ernie the a corn shavers, watch out for john kasich. john kasich is close enough to him -- if kasich would finish ahead of him here, then questions about rubio get very intense and kasich is a very, very good debater. he's been at this for a long time. if i were rubio i'd duck when

christie was there but i'd watch my back with john kasich. >> the christie factor, he has nothing to lose. the polls are telling him tuesday night is not just a concession speech for him, it's a farewell speech, campaign's over. so when you've got a guy on the stage who knows this might be my last republican debate, he needs every moment he can get. and this week he's been spending all of his time going after what he calls the boy in the bubble. >> yeah. he's a slugger but he makes the one point that is to be made about rubio. besides the fact that a lot of rubio's policies are a little bit off the plumb. you worked at the taxation committee. what happens if we do away with capital gains tax. you know what the deficit does, it goes to the moon. but he is very well prepared. he's an inch deep and a mile wide as we used to say in worcester. if you knock him one inch off his talking point, he'll we lost for a weak. and christie has an animalistic

instinct for people's trouble spots. i think he stumbled into one with the bubble boy. that's a great label to hang on somebody. >> ted cruz faces a big challenge tonight, which is to mane that i know this second place position at least in new hampshire. in the latest poll he's in a virtual tie with rubio. >> yeah, i'm not exactly sure how important it is -- how important new hampshire is to him. south carolina is a big casino for him. but i've been talking to a lot of other republicans at republicans events. the dirty tricks in iowa are really sticking to him. people don't like that. you and i grew up in massachusetts. we know the segretti line. when you step over that, especially in a republican primary, and in iowa and new hampshire, and what he did to ben carson quite frankly was nasty. it was unnecessary and he's -- there are people beyond the ben carson campaign who are saying that now. >> charlie pierce, thank you very much for joining us

tonight. really good to have you. up next, we're going to talk to some real republican voters here in new hampshire, one undecided. she's going to listen to two who have made up their minds, see if she comes out of this decided. at ally bank, no branches equals great rates. it's a fact. kind of like vacations equal getting carried away. more proactive selling. what do you think michal? i agree. let's get out there. let's meet these people.

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new hampshire officials are expecting a record turnout in tuesday's primary. three people will be going to the polls on tuesday. joining us now, carl zahn, a registered republican. he's decided to vote for donald trump. tara mccarthy registered independent. she's undecided. also with us bill zorn, a registered republican who has decided to vote for marco rubio. carl, what made you decide to go

with the now republican frontrunner donald trump? >> i actually got invited to see him last april. room full of 12, maybe 15 people. spoke for an hour and a half. i left, i wrote an opinion piece for the union leader professing my political lust. seeking help, as it were. and the rest is history. >> who did you vote for four years ago in the primary? >> somewhat reluctantly romney. >> so you've gone from the establishment guy, as we would call him then, and by the way, the frontrunner, the guy who ended up with the nomination. what's the road from romney to trump? >> probably the same road that a lot of people took in this four years of stuff not getting done. just absolute gridlock in the federal government, washington. the excessive spending. i think a lot of people sense an

ominous future and kind of no one at the wheel, you know? >> now, you told us before that there are some things trump says that you disagree with and you think are a little out there, or just plain untrue. how do you process that, when he says something you just think is nuts or whatever? >> probably the same way an alcoholic deals with his excessive drinking. >> okay. so there's still enough there for you to love. >> i think there's things that he says, you know, he's a new yorker. lacking the filter. there's things he says, i think it hurts his run. but i overlook it. and again, i'm a guy who's offended when my president tells me you can't keep your doctor, your health care, the syrian refugees have been vetted, the irs scandal was an isolated incident. those things are just as offensive to me as anything donald trump might say. >> bill, how did you end up making your decision? >> well, i think that -- i first of all wanted to have a republican president. and so the first thing was who

was the most likely person who could bring the republican message to the entire country and be elected? i think two out of the three of us agree that ought to be a republican. and the other part was marco rubio's personality. i think he's got an intellect, an ease, a level headedness about him. where, when he's confronted with issues we can't even see today, would be in a position where he could decide and analyze issues in an appropriate way. >> give karl just one sentence of why you're not with donald trump. >> i think when you're a leader, maybe in the business world, you can command and demand, but i don't think that's the way it works in politics, and on the international level. >> give bill one sentence why you're not with marco rubio. >> i'm not looking for emily

post in 2016. >> tara, you're up. you've been taking -- you've been listening to this stuff for a year. candidates have been up here for over a year. they start infecting new hampshire long before they announce. >> yeah, it's a lot of fun. >> so now donald trump has been here. he's had big events, widely covered, radio, tv, all of these candidates. are you leaning toward a candidate? >> i am. >> oh, who's that? who's the lucky one? >> well, we'll see how after the debate tonight, but right now i think jeb bush is my guy. >> and what are you hoping to see in the debate tonight? what could happen in the debate that could push you one way or another, or maybe into another candidate? >> well, i think i've eliminated a good number of them. i think john kasich maybe is a contender for me. but i think 90% probably for governor bush. and i would like to see him at least connect to the voters the way that he does in person.

i think that went into my decision, or 90% decision to vote for him. >> barbara got to you. >> well, she is an amazing individual, as is bush 41. but no, i saw him in person, and i just think that governor bush has the intellect and the temperament, and i believe he can build consensus. >> he's a good man. >> bill, ask tara to watch for something in the debate. what would you ask her to watch for in the debate that you think would get her to come over to marco rubio? >> i would think, actually, when you look at tara's point, when she looks at the candidate that she's leaning towards, whether or not he has the ability to connect. sometimes i think there's a certain amount of whininess to that candidate and i think that's not a way to lead. i think sometimes it comes across a little too emotional.

>> tara, is there any chance you would vote for donald trump? i don't want karl to waste his time if there's no chance. >> there really isn't. >> why? >> i'm sorry. >> why is there no chance? >> i think i have yet to see any real substance i think. he's done a great job i think playing into the frustration. >> you know, if i cry -- >> and anger. >> i hope you know that. >> so there's just been no substance? >> i think no substance. and i think he's been even more polarizing than i think we are all feeling right now. i think he's sort of fanned the flame, so to speak. >> if donald trump was the nominee, would you then look at the democrat? >> yes, i would. >> karl? >> ouch. >> yeah. it's tough. bill, what about that? what about in terms of the practicality of who this nominee is, the possibility of trump or other nominees offending in the

general election? >> that goes back to my original point, which is i'd really like to see a republican in the white house. >> and that's going to have to be the last word. we're up against the hard break. thank you all. great having you join us. really appreciate it. that does it for this hour. more campaign coverage after a break. try alka-seltzer heartburn reliefchews. they work fast and don't taste chalky. mmm...amazing. i have heartburn. alka-seltzer heartburn reliefchews. enjoy the relief. parking is hard to find. seems like everyone drives. and those who do should switch to geico because you could save hundreds on car insurance. ah, perfect. valet parking. evening, sir. hello! here's the keys. and, uh, go easy on my ride, mate. hm, wouldn't mind some of that beef wellington... to see how much you could save on car insurance, go to geico.com. ah! (car alarm sounds)

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nissan. innovation that excites. as we age, certain nutrients longer than ever. become especially important. from the makers of one a day fifty-plus. one a day proactive sixty-five plus. with high potency vitamin b12 and more vitamin d. good evening. i'm stove kor neve kornacki liv manchester, new hampshire. you're watching coverage of the new hampshire primary. ahead in this hour, marco rubio rises. ted cruz stalls. and donald trump is still on top. but trump's been here before. how does he plan to avoid another disappointing finish on tuesday? team christie and team bush are targeting rubio, b