night. thank you very much for joining us. we appreciate it very much. political mardi gras. let's play "hardball." good evening. i'm chris matthews. in manchester on the eve of the new hampshire primary. donald trump stands as the overwhelming favorite among republicans here. the fight is on for second place. after marco rubio's robotic, let's call it strange performance in saturday's debate, establishment republicans are looking for a candidate. it's looking wide open. jeb bush, john kasich and chris christie all face an opportunity to grab the silver medal. here's where things stand tonight in the granite state. according to the latest tracking poll, trump is well ahead of his nearest opponents.

the new york billionaire gets 34%. 21 points ahead of ted cruz and marco rubio, who are tied in second. close behind, very close, are john kasich and jeb bush. 10%. earlier today, i interviewed donald trump, i started by asking about that circuit of firing squad if you will we saw among the establishment candidates, which allowed trump to stay out of the scrum. >> well, i didn't know what happened exactly. i was just sort of standing there watching everybody go wild. i was very happy about it. that's okay with me. >> what did you make of marco rubio doing an imitation from the blade runner? he just started repeating himself. six teams, the whole speech parts. what was it? memory lapse? >> i don't know what it was. i was standing right there. he's a nice guy. he's been very nice to me. i heard it once, i heard it a second time, then a third. i said, i think it's the exact same -- it isn't as if you re played it. i wondered if he was going do it once more.

>> let me ask you about -- talk to the voter for a minute here. snowing up here now. it snows in new hampshire. people know how to put chains on. they have good tires. why should they trudge through the snow for donald trump? >> my whole concept and my whole theme, frankly, behind it, is make america great again. we're going to strengthen up our borders, not let the drugs pour in. we're going to build up our military. nobody's going to mess with us. we're going to take care of our vets. get rid of obamacare. whether you like it or don't like it, it's tremendous what's happening in terms of the increases, 25%, 35%, 45% increases in obamacare. >> how do you get it done? we know about the wall. i think it appeals to a lot of people. here's what happens. you get inaugurated, you have the party that night, get back to the oval office, you get a call from the speaker of the house, say it's paul ryan. he says, you know, mr. trump i think that idea of yours of

building a wall is disgraceful. what do you do? >> he may also go along with me 100%. i think my history is that i cajole and get people to do what they have to do. >> what are your tools? >> me. washington is in gridlock right now. you understand that. >> i know all about this. and i know how things don't get done. >> when you see congress, i think the last time i saw it 9% -- about 9%. we're going to make it better. we're going to bring it up and get things done. >> when you put up a building in new york, there it is that big building on fifth avenue, the trump tower. i'm not in the business. what i've heard about is you have to pay a special percent, maybe 5% to the bad guy. the councilman will stiff you. or a labor union being very difficult. what do you do? how do you scare them into doing what you want them to do or pay them off? how do you get it done? >> i'm the king of zoning.

>> what's your technique? >> i deal with people. i hire experts. i hire people that are good -- >> do you pay these guys? >> they're consultants. >> do you pay the -- >> no, i don't. the problem is, first of all, it's dishonest, and i'm an honest guy. if you do that, everybody else comes along and it never ends. if you don't do it, like the old story, you take care of building inspectors, all the building inspectors hear about it. >> what do you do if they're not building? wise guys? >> i know what you mean by wise guys. i've known people that make the politicians that you and i deal with every day look like little babies. they would walk across out of fear if they saw some of these guys. i deal with people that are very tough people and i get it done. i deal with people that are heads of countries. i'm all over the world. my country is all over the world. i get along great with people. >> so in the old days -- >> let me tell you something -- >> esposito was great. >> i knew him very well. meat esposito in his own way was

a very, very honest guy. when he gave you his word on something, it was done. i deal with politicians, they give you their word and it means nothing. meat esposito was in some ways a very honorable guy. >> you say things like either we have a country or we don't. i get it. immigration, jobs going overseas, best jobs to china, jobs to illegal immigrants, i get it. you're the nationalist. you're up against a socialist. who wins? >> i think i'd beat him easy. when i start talking about tax rates, i would hit him so hard on taxes. somebody has to pay for it. >> who would pay for the tuition for everybody? >> we'll all pay. >> medicare for life? >> 95% taxes, it's impossible. i would love to run against him. the only one i would rather run against, i would love to run against hillary, because it's more of a name.

but there's no way you lose to bernie. when you start going into the taxes, i'm actually surprised that hillary isn't playing the tax card. i'm a little surprised hillary continues to run with her e-mail problems. >> let me ask you about the old names. why are the clintons, both of them, having trouble this time? where you basically pushed him out about the sexist charges. >> they've not instead a bad thing about me since i said it. are you impressed? >> i'm impressed with stuff that works in this case. let's go about the clintons and the bushes. they're having such a hard time out in the stump. >> well, jeb is a guy -- no, no >> why don't you like the -- >> he spent $20 million on ads against me, which he shouldn't have done. he should have focused on people ahead of him. they're false ads. and he says false things about me. he talks about second amendment. nobody's stronger in second amendment than me. he would make you believe that i'm not. he brings up taxes. i have the biggest tax decrease

of anybody else and he makes it sound like i'm -- >> what about the eminent domain. >> it just came out this morning that his father, and the group, the bushes, not him, because he's not smart enough to do it. but his group used eminent domain to get the land around the stadium bought in texas. he's very embarrassed by it. i'm going to tell you, he's not going anywhere. he just announced he spent $120 million on the campaign. hi announced 20 minutes ago he's against super pac. now he announces that he's against super pacs. it's really -- he's a sad case. >> you talked about torture. you used the word. we're going to get further than waterboarding. you're responsible to every enlisted person. you're responsible to all those guys. they get captured. there's always a concern in our government. the reason we don't torture people in uniform, because our

guys are going to be captured. aren't you worried as -- >> i understand -- >> do you legitimize torture? >> they asked ted cruz about waterboarding. he was tentative with that answer. you saw that. then they looked to me. what do you think? i said i'm all in favor. and i said the reason i'm in favor, i said, i prefaced it by saying the reason i'm in favor is because they're chopping off heads. not since the medieval times -- you and i -- >> by the way, the french revolution, they did a lot of guillotine. >> but not since the ice age -- >> they're drawing and quartering in england in the 19th century. >> medieval times made more of an impression. not since medieval times have we talked about chopping off heads. i know the parents of james foley. >> let's talk about that guy. i carry a picture of that guy in my wallet. a man of noble courage. >> great parents, by the way, yeah. >> he knew it was going to reach

this end on this earth and he stood his ground. never buckled. what a great man. suppose you get a call at 3:00 in the morning, they just picked up our uniformed guys, got picked up by isis, they said they're going to cut his head off in five days. what do you do? >> this is what -- >> i'm not getting at. i don't know the answer. >> they're always tough answers. these are very tough answers. the one thing you can't do is start taking care of people by giving money to get people out. once you do that, everybody in the room is going to be gone. you can't do that. it's horrible to tell parents that. you know, like the parents of james foley. who i love. i know them and i love them, they're great people. and he was great. >> what would you do? >> i would never -- >> what would you do? >> i would -- what -- >> would you try to stop it? >> yes, i would do everything i could to stop it. if we could find the area, i would bomb, i would do whatever i could to stop it. but once you pay ransom, it's

over. >> you pay tribute, some of the republican candidates have played tribute to reagan, as soon as he got in, he got the hostages back. >> he said they will not be there when i'm president. and he meant it. >> where is this power? >> i think he was a little bit scared. i watched that. carter was a nice man. but they had no fear of carter for whatever reason. okay. >> this is very important. i remember when i worked for tip o'neill in the old days. the reason the russians were impressed with reagan, there was a demonstration, those guys took the threat seriously. how do you demonstrate strength? how do you get the message across like reagan did, don't mess with me? because strength is a lot about the appearance of strength. >> i think the strike in his case was good. but it's almost an error that a lot of people don't -- >> do you have it? >> you obviously think i do

because you -- >> i'm wondering how you -- >> i always hate when somebody says you have this, or i have that. i don't talk about myself. i'll tell you one thing, if we didn't get our hostages back, we paid $150 billion for hostages, but if we didn't get them back, or the ten sailors the way they made us look, that was a pretty humbling thing what they did with the ten sailors. if we didn't get our hostages back, they would have had hell to pay if i were president, that i can tell you. >> are you personally impressed by -- a good answer. >> a couple of them are impressive. >> who? >> others are unimpressive. i think jeb bush is very unimpressive. he's got something that's okay. he's got something -- he's done a good job. he got hurt by fracking. >> do you know how many democrats i run into like kasich? >> i like him, too. he was very nice. >> would you think about -- >> kasich is -- in the second

debate, what happened, he decided that wasn't -- >> you know how that works. do you think he would be a good running mate for you? >> i think he would. i have very good poll numbers in ohio. you have to win ohio. you have to win florida. >> how do you get florida? >> right now i'm at 48% in florida. i'm at 48%. bush is at like 6%. and rubio i think is at 11%. and i'm at 48%. and i'm saying, what do i need anybody for? >> tomorrow night if you win, the front-runner, are you going to let anybody take it away from you and say, well, he didn't beat the spread? >> well, i'll tell you -- >> i'm sorry, the silver winner tomorrow night will be the real winner. >> that happened a little bit in iowa. i came in second. i was 2,400 votes ahead of the third place. the third place person, who was marco, was like a genius king. this is the first time i ran for office.

so i came in second. probably came in first, to be honest with you, because votes were taken away from carson, if they weren't taken away, i would have come in first. let's say i came in first or second. because i don't forget things like that. all of a sudden the guy who came in third is a hero. i said how come he's a hero and >> rubio proved he repeats himself. >> that's not good. >> how does it impact long term? will that affect him long term? >> that's part of it. i think you and bernie have two things in common. he's a self-described socialist. and you're a nationalist. i believe that about you. you both have a focus and you both have joy in your campaign. there's fun when people leave your things. other people, not you. you seem to have lost some joy since iowa. >> lost or gained? >> lost. >> oh, no. >> you don't seem as happy since last week. >> i'm happier now. you just showed me those polls.

>> that's why i'm here. >> we have another thing in common with bernie. i can do something about a trade. he knows the united states is getting ripped off by china, by japan, by mexico, by everybody, okay? and so do i. the difference is, i'm going to do something about it, we're going to make a fortune. bernie can't do anything about it. he wouldn't know where to begin. >> how do you make china change its currency policies? >> by telling them, if you don't change, you'll have a hard time trading with us. >> and what do we do about the debt problem? they've got -- don't they have us by the shorts? >> no, we have them. >> they have our paper. >> excuse me, we have them. they need our money to come in. chris, we have them. and nobody -- >> who's carrying our debt? >> it doesn't make any difference. if we played numbers with them, with trade, this ewould have a depression the likes of which you've never seen before. we have china. we're going to make a great deal with china. don't forget, i have the biggest bank in the world from china in my building. i sell tens of millions of dollars worth of condos.

i own the bank of america building in san francisco because of the china group. we have all the cards. i deal with china, and i -- i have nothing against china. what i have -- >> let me ask you -- >> what i'm upset about is our leaders deal so -- >> late breaking news. last question. counter on the former president of mexico said he won't pay for the wall. >> he'll pay. trust me, he'll play. we have such a trade deficit, the wall is peanuts compared to the -- >> would you get rid of nafta? >> i would get rid of it or amend it greatly. >> thank you. >> thank you. >> donald trump, thanks for coming over. >> my interview with donald trump was a couple of hours ago. he'll be at a big arena here in manchester. more on the republican race and whether marco rubio can recover from his robotic debate performance. and hillary clinton against bernie sanders, that's still happening.

this is "hardball," live from manchester on the eve of the new hampshire primary.

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the fbi confirmed the back to "hardball," live from new hampshire, ahead of tomorrow's primary. on the republican side, a wild sprint to the finish here. we just showed you my interview with donald trump who is sort of the king of the hill here in new hampshire voting-wise. and marco rubio's strange moment in this weekend's debate. i'm joined by the co-host with all due respect who are both at donald trump's new hampshire rally tonight. and robert costa, an msnbc political analyst. john, pass it over to mark when you're done. how do you see the whole race, trump sort of -- i think he's pretty much happy right now, based upon our interview. john, and then mark. how is the race playing? >> chris, i think there's a rough consensus now, if you take what the rival campaigns are saying, and look at the public polling that donald trump is likely to win the new hampshire primary tomorrow. likely to win it bay healthy

margin. whether he's over 30 or under 30, unclear. anything besides that is totally unknown. the polling is really tough to read. there's at least four or five candidates who are in contention to finish second. >> mark? >> unless trump really surges above where he is, or cruz surges above where he is, i think mathematically it's likely one of the four establishment gets in the 20s. and i think they leave with a leg up. it means one of them will leave with a leg up. >> guys, there are always about two or three points. how many votes haven't been decided as yet in the polling? >> i think there's a sense, chris, first of all, the polling is a little suspect. that's one thing all the campaigns are saying, which is that a lot of the polling took place before the debate saturday. the rest of the polling that took place sunday took place during the super bowl, which is

notoriously a difficult thing to try to poll through. no one knows if the polling is accurate. maybe on the republican side, there's 10% or 15% still undecided. then there's the huge independent vote which we don't know whether they will flock to the republican primary or whether they'll flock to the democratic primary tomorrow. that's totally up for grabs. >> let me ask you about the impact of the debate. obviously we don't have a lot of poll data on it. mark, the impact of the debate, especially marco rubio, what i would call a strange performance, but you do the talking. >> anecdotally, i've not heard anybody for rubio, said to him as he did, with lester holt, i hear fewer and fewer people say they're deciding between rubio and some of the others. i think that rubio's lane is distant. if you're for one of the governors, we've been here, people choosing between

christie, bush and kasich, or some combination of the two of them. i still think rubio can finish second, but i don't think he can win a super strong second that would have made him the de facto candidate. >> one of the big questions here is, how far will rubio fall, and the other question is, how much could christie rise. those are like the two biggest questions outstanding in terms of what's going to happen tomorrow night. >> okay. thank you, john and mark. robert, do you buy that, that it hasn't -- the bizarre performance of repeating himself five or six times verbatim hasn't hurt rubio? >> it hasn't hurt him with his base. his crowds are still big in new hampshire now. it didn't help him grow. his coalition is pretty much the same as it was coming out of iowa. he was trying to move up in new hampshire, not just stay steady. >> what about christie, the prosecutor saturday night? >> it's going to be difficult

for him to see a path forward. talking to sources close to his campaign, doesn't have a lot of money left. how does he pay his staff for another month or two. he'll need a strong third to have enough money to stay in the race. >> the bushes have a great history up here of doing well. w. didn't do so well, but what do you make of it? is he just gone? >> i don't think so. i think if he can finish above rubio, above a kasich, he has a case to make. the thing about bush, is he's more of a national candidate than kasich or christie at this point. he has an organization in south carolina, he has a well-funded super pac. he doesn't need to win here. but he needs to do well enough to reassure his people. >> what about kasich? >> i think, when i'm on the campaign trail, you sense a kasich moment. you sense trump's winning big, but kasich, because he's positive in this sea of negativity, he's an emotional human. >> i'll stick to my prediction, i think kasich comes in stekd tomorrow night.

maybe that's prejudicing my thinking here. thank you so much, robert costa. the former president's toughening his attacks at bernie sanders. but will it turn around the momentum for hillary clinton. will attacks like his matter. this is "hardball," the place for politics.

we've been told planned parenthood, the human rights campaign fund is part of the establishment. it's a her medically sealed deal. hillary's opponent said it's a hermedically sealed box, it's very effective. bernie took what they said good about him and put it in under all these endorsements. except they didn't endorse. when you're making a revolution, you can't be too careful about the facts. you're for them or against them.

>> that was bill clinton, the former president, pouncing in a way, doing it verbally against bernie sanders over the weekend. that was yesterday. call them attacks if you will. responding to the clinton campaigns, jeff weaver wrote, it's very disturbing as the clinton campaign struggles, they've been increasingly negative and dishonest. hillary tries to mount a comeback from behind against a big victory expected for sanders. the real clear politics average shows sanders leads clinton up here in new hampshire 53% to 41%. that is not as big as it is in some polls. chelsea clinton joined her parents in new hampshire, as the clinton campaign looks for an upset tomorrow night. howard fineman with the "huffington post," and heidi.

trying to soften it up, bring their only daughter here, bring bill in, the supportive spouse, i don't know. it seems like more of a cutting, gritty campaign than that. it doesn't seem about family home values or anything. >> it's a specific. what are the two demographics that she needs, chris? younger women, aka chelsea, and older white working class people who overwhelmingly -- well, who supported bill clinton and have fond memories of him. i was at the first rally he did yesterday, and you could definitely see how he came in with a different approach than hill tear and spoke to some of the working men and shared anecdotes from his campaign in 1992. and kind of made a more personal appeal to him that maybe she can't. >> did he seem to be out of breath, did he seem like he lost his guts? >> absolutely, he seemed like a different person to me. granted, it's been 16 years

since i've seen the man in person, but he just seemed, i guess maybe the diet he's -- >> he doesn't have the big volume he used to have. he used to be a big hall speaker like ted kennedy. >> with the passage of time for the clintons, both helps and hurts. it helps that they have a long history here. they have a lot of friends here. a lot of time has passed. i think more important in a way than bill clinton up here, and chelsea up here, is the fact that hillary's brooklyn, new york, headquarters has basically emptied out to come up here to do as much door knocking and person-to-person campaigning as possible. that's what you have to do here. and that's what bernie is doing. i was just talking to a prominent republican who lives up a long driveway, you know, an ex-urban part of manchester, she said the bernie people came and knocked on her door. what's happening is the volunteers are crucial to what's happening in this state. >> let me ask you about the message.

can you capsulize hillary's reason for becoming president? can you tell me what it is? bernie is a socialist. what's hillary selling? >> she's selling something that i think -- a word she never used, incrementalism. she's saying, we're going to take obamacare and improve on it, and bernie is big change. we're talking about the very labor ral core of the party. and for that, the dissatisfaction, and the anxiety right now is so high, that they want something very different. and she's telling, you know -- >> this will never work. that has never worked. that's like nixon and kennedy in the '60s. i agree with the senator's goals. i'm going to get there more slowly. who wants to hear that. >> i can tell you today from the people i talked with, the bernie rally that i went to, some of whom had been clinton supporters, and obama supporters in the past, these struggling people in the middle class are

not -- >> by middle, making $40,000 a year or $70,000 a year? >> no, $40,000, $50,000 a year. they're tired of waiting around. they're disappointed with obama. so when she wraps herself in the mantle of barack obama up here, which she's been doing, that doesn't necessarily work that well. >> isn't that her firewall with african-americans? >> it might be with african-americans, but it's not the case up here. i do think, though, that the new hampshirites, even most democrats, are not big spenders, okay? the people of new hampshire are >> but why does he go after taxes? >> she has not gone after him on taxes, which is his most vulnerable thing up here. she doesn't want to get too far to the right of him for what she's got to try to do down the road -- >> wait a minute, government paid health care for life. government paid huge increases in social security benefits.

government paid tuition. that's a lot of money -- >> they've been trying to get this message out there, to get these stories out there. but a little late to do that. >> we dance around it. they dance around it because they think they're playing the long game. if they lose here by 15 points, there is no long game. >> they'll spin it as 1992, though. they're already doing that. >> it's a holding game. they're going to lose in nevada. i'll bet. thank you, howard. you can't win a battle totally on defense. you have to get the ball once in a while and get a touchdown. that's a super bowl reference. heidi, thank you, dear. i'm sorry to call you dear, but thank you. >> you can call me dear, too, that's fine. >> not here. up next, donald trump holding a big lead on the republican side, it's all about the silver medal here. let's see who's got the mode to win that one.

it's getting close right now. welcome back to "hardball," live from manchester on the eve of the new hampshire primary. some places they'll start voting here, with donald trump out front right now in the polls at least. four candidates competing for second place, the silver medal if you will. they're all within a margin of error. one is john kasich. i'm rooting for him. the polling varies. kasich in second place, one percentage point ahead of marco

rubio. howard fineman notes in the "huffington post," conversations on the ground with the campaign insiders in new hampshire shows kasich has done the most to separate himself from the pack in the wake of saturday night's debate. from the great "boston globe," of spotlight, and irishman. for that reason we start with you. no, we start with you. annie, let me ask you this, who is moving up and may break from the pack and win a clear second? >> i think you're absolutely right on kasich. there seems to be a lot of buzz about him, a lot of momentum there. i want to add an extra person in here which is cruz. you think about in '12, those -- with rand paul out, where the libertarian voters, where do they go. >> the baptists, who are fundamentalists, will they go with rim? >> i think there's a chance there.

don't forget, this is a state that embraced buchanan. there is a real conservative strength here. it's not impossible. >> pat buchanan, catholic, irish, the whole thing, i get it. i do not understand the appeal with ted cruz. what do you think? >> i have no idea, chris. >> what about the guy from new jersey? >> i think he's got a shot at it. 48 hours ago it was all marco. nice reporting, you've got kasich now. you've got a fair hand -- i said flavor -- >> don't put me in the category of liking marco rubio. ma is a misstatement. i've been calling 4i78 for a robot for weeks, and he finally got caught saturday night. >> there's a new shampoo, marco robo, brainwash, rinse, repeat. >> congressman, what do you see on the republican side? you're a democrat. >> the kids i grew up with here

in new hampshire, they can spoke a phony a mile away. i think kasich is the real thing up here. i think they think he's real and that matters. >> what do you think of the blade runner saturday night where the guy repeated himself six times? >> i think he's been overrated. i think you saw the real marco rubio there. there's not a president among the group. >> i'll come back to you. it seems like you have a lot to choose from in terms of bully. you've got the bully from jersey. if you're from jersey, and he's on your side, you like him. what do you think about jeb bush? is there an old yankee flavor to any of the voters left anymore? the yankee's gone? >> i think jeb certainly could have an opening. his people are sounding really good. >> the personality of the yankee -- >> of course he is. >> barbara bush. >> barbara bush. there's a chance for him here.

i would not like -- it is amazing to me how clustered everything is at this point. and this is just the joy of new hampshire. we're going to find out. >> what percentage of the republican electorate up here is old yankee, been here a few generations? >> one-third of the electorate changes every four years. >> how many from massachusetts? >> i would say 40%. >> wow. >> howie's down in florida. he scammed down -- >> the boston herald is the conservative paper. >> the what? i'm sorry? >> how about right wing. >> not familiar with that. >> they had no movie made about the herald. >> not at all. >> if you didn't like spotlight, you did want to be a reporter after that, you won't be a reporter. bernie sanders and larry david unite. look at the vermont senator's debut on "snl." this is "hardball."

she gave me a call and shake. >> a wipe and a shake? >> no, there was no wipe. definitely no wipe. >> bernie, how's things going up in new hampshire? >> okay. >> just okay? >> well, it's pretty, pretty, pretty, pretty good. [ cheers and applause ] >> that was bobby moynahan on "snl" over the weekend. joining forces with his doppler ganger, larry david. larry once said to me, the biggest thing that ever happened

to him in his life was doing bernie. it's an amazing thing. plenty of enthusiasm for sanders on the ground in new hampshire. with hillary trailing big with less than 24 hours before the actual voting, is there any hope left for a clinton upset? we're back now with the roundtable. annie, joe and congressman maloney. can hillary beat bernie? >> there's always hope for an upset. there's always hope. >> you're like larry david here. >> i know. >> we don't know what we're doing. there's hope, but there's not much. >> i think hillary's going to be within a few percentage points of bernie, because of the woman factor in new hampshire, democratic politics. in 2008, i think it still holds. >> patrick maloney? >> i was here in '92 working for him then. i'm back now. i'll tell you what, i was out talking to a guy with jim walsh, he said, you know, bernie's a great cheerleader.

hillary's the quarterback. and i think that's the image that i have in my head. she's taken hits, she's on the field but she's scoring points. people in new hampshire like that. people i grew up with know she's a fighter, her husband is a fighter, and they're going to deliver. that's going to matter tomorrow. >> simply put the arithmetic up on the wall and say, look, free health care for life, you don't pay in for 50 years, you just get it for 65 years, your whole life, and free tuition at major state universities, that's $50,000 per head. free. then you've got the higher social security benefits. you don't have to pay higher taxes on. everybody's getting all this new money. where is it coming from? just answer the question. >> you go to the rallies, and people want to hear the message of, like, it can happen. he is so tapped into that. when you're up there explaining why it can't happen, you're losing. >> people don't believe they'll give them free new snow tires. they're smart. but this guy promises

everything, and they go, okay. i buy that. it's all free. >> that's the problem with the economic understanding of this country, among other things these days. >> spoken like a great leader, a union leader. thank you. let me close here on this let me close here on this eve of the new hampshire primary to view its compelling and colorful history. this is where presidencies are born and where they sometimes

let me close here on this eve of the new hampshire primary to view its compelling and colorful history. this is where presidencies are born and where they sometimes die. if you're not interested this new hampshire primaries, you're not interested in the history of this country. looking back at history, the new hampshire primary has been the key state in picking presidents. >> new hampshire speaks first to the nation. >> i've been to new hampshire a lot. i've been to the small towns. i think i'll be a better president because of the relationship. >> it's important because it comes first. the results if new hampshire set the trajectory of the

presidential race to come. >> thank you for this victory in new hampshire. >> i think the new hampshire's always important. >> i love new hampshire. >> come backs, upsets and meltdowns are all part of the its record of making and breaking presidential campaigns. >> what you do in new hampshire is going to be interpreted across the nation. it will be interpreted around the world. >> while the primary has been first in the country since 1920, its unique national appearance became apparent in 1952 when supreme allied commanders dwight eisenhower beat the republican favorite without setting foot in the state. three weeks later truman surprised the country with it announcement he would not run for re-election. >> i shall not be a candidate for re-election. >> 42-year-old john f. kennedy kicked off his 1960 campaign to

overcome concerns about his age, kennedy used state as a proving ground. his victory set him on his path to become the youngest elected president. in 1964, the winner in new hampshire wasn't a declared candidate. he triumphed with an unprecedented write in vote for shadowing is chaos that would be set the republican party. >> change is a fixture in america from 1968. >> soon after that johnson bowed out of race. 1968, also marked the comeback of richard nixon whose victory valuelated his viability after vowing to retire from politics six years earlier.

in 1962, ed musky was considered the favorite. the candidate got emotional and appeared to tear up during a speech. while he blamed the snow, which he said melt on his face, he never recovered. in 1976, ronald reagan challenged and nearly defeated nearly sitting president -- >> i'm not a part of the washington establishment. >> on the democratic side, jimmy carter capitalized on his momentum. in 1980, ronald reagan stage add comeback in the state. having paid for a one-on-one debate reagan changed the rules

to include the other republican candidates. bush refused as did the moderator and the scene which followed help propel reagan to victory three days later. >> i am paying for this microphone. >> tonight, we buried the label dark horse. >> needing a comeback in 1988, vice president george bush waged an aggressive campaign against bob doyle. >> senator doyle, is there anything you would like to say to the vice president? >> yeah, stop lying about my record. >> bill clinton's campaign was on the ropes in new hampshire in 1992. his better than expected finish was enough to reenergize his campaign even be lagging second place. >> new hampshire, tonight, as made bill clinton the comeback kid.

>> in 1996, bob doyle was up staged by pat buchanan. al gore's narrow win in the democratic primary primed him to win a 50-state shut out in 2000. john mccain's 19-point victory over george w. bush in 2000 almost derailed bush's campaign. in 2004, john kerry's victory in new hampshire sealed his nomination. clinton's win fore told the long battle to follow. >> i found my own voice. >> in 2012, mitt romney won new hampshire handlely submitting his status as the republican candidate to be. the results of new hampshire have shown you must win or finish in a strong second. performing well in the live free or die state has proven to be a

big leg up for any presidential campaign. wow, that's "hardball" for now. join us tomorrow night for live coverage of the the new hampshire primary. "all in" with chris hayes starts right now. tonight on "all in". >> word association. >> loser. >> it's a verbal fight to the finish. >> he's making a fool out of himself. >> a trump attack continues as the pile on marco rubio grows. >> you cannot put an amateur on that stage. she will eat him alive. >> do you think you've given new life to the calm of three governors? >> no. hillary clinton responds to rumors of campaign shake up and speaks out on the harassment of her supporters. >> a lot are being harassed on