♪ ♪ how would you, if you were standing up here where i am, how would you thank everybody? how could you possibly say thanks? >> win! >> win! >> this is sort of our final love-fest, all right? now tomorrow will be an even better one. >> donald is the frontrunner in new hampshire. >> we are here in new hampshire

competing for the votes. and at this point it's a turnout game. >> this is the political crimina christmas eve in america. >> i will ask you respectfully to please consider giving me the chance to do this job for you. >> we are no longer accepting establishment politics or establishment economics. that we want this country to move forward in a different direction. thank you all very much! [ cheers and applause ] >> here we are. good morning, and welcome to "morning joe." it is tuesday, february 9th. decision day here in new hampshire as first primary votes are cast in the 2016 presidential election. >> i tell you what, mika, it has been a long time in the making. >> painful! >> on the republican side a candidate that few people took seriously is now looking to make new hampshire history. >> it could happen. donald trump goes into election day with a commanding lead in

the polls while the apparent fight for second is literally anyone's game. >> meanwhile, over on the democratic side who was once seen but all but inevitable now is a clear underdog in new hampshire. hillary clinton has mounted comebacks in the granite state before, but the question everybody is wondering today is, can she do it again. >> some of the votes are already in. three tiny hamlets went to the polls at midnight. bernie sanders won all our democratic voters in dicksville notch. >> trump, kasich and ted cruz have a tie for second. here with us on the set at jd's tavern in manchester. veteran and msnbc contributor mike barnicle and mark halperin and john heilemann as well.

a lot to get to. are we good here? >>. [ cheers and applause ] >> they're fired up behind us. >> we've got the latest tracking polls and everything else. before we go to that, let's take it around the table really quick. mike barnicle, what did you see yesterday out on the campaign trail? >> one of the more interesting things i saw yesterday was at the trump rally. it finally dawned on me, looking at a huge number of people who came out at the verizon center across the street from where we are right now. donald trump, to a lot of people, is literally a lottery ticket. we're buying a lottery ticket. >> look at the folks from last night. stunning. >> willie, you were there as well. these people drove through the snow storm. i was talking to trump's people back stage asking how they were feeling. he said, well, we'd feel a lot better except two or three of our staff people coming over were in car accidents because the roads were so bad. we walked out there, mika.

what were there, 4,000 people, 5,000 people? >> the crowds for trump have become so routine that we start to take them for granted but last night was another one of those moments on the eve of the election. 4,000 or 5,000 people showing up to see him. for anybody who hasn't been to new hampshire in the past couple of days, what a great process. driving through the snow. big arenas, donald trump, small diners for other candidates. it's great way to elect a president. we don't know what's going to happen today. we have trump on one side and bernie sanders on the other, two people we never would have dreamed of. >> with so many undecideds, anything could happen. we could be shocked with the first place finish like in iowa. it's been an incredible week or so. what did you see, john heilemann, yesterday? >> i was with these guys last night at the trump rally. yesterday we saw bernie sanders in the morning.

hillary clinton in the early afternoon and donald trump at night, all within this -- the greater manchester, nashua, area. i was struck by trump last night. i had seen him in the course of the week. we talked in exeter, he seemed a little tight and worried. they were hearing and seeing in the internal numbers a little bit a sign that he might be fading a little bit. by the end of the week, early this part of the week i think he's incredibly confident. he seems to be a different man than he was last thursday or friday. >> yes. got a rhythm. >> it's what we all noticed last night. i think, mark, they find themselves in an interesting situation. they are still chasing to buy iowa. they show polls that show them 15 or 20 points ahead. don't show them polls that show that. they'll go, we were ahead in iowa too. >> they want to bank a victory.

donald trump is correct. he is a first-time politician. second in iowa is a good result for somebody who has never been on the ballot before. if the two guys ahead in the polls win we'll have two guys around 70 years old who are getting the moment to lead their parties, potentially and two guys who will come out of here with some momentum at a time when hillary clinton, jeb bush, john kasich, marco rubio who are all going to after the results tonight figure out how to explain losing. >> getting to the polls. the final poll heading into today's vote shows donald trump maintaining his strong lead and perhaps a late surge to jeb bush. 31%. the emerson college poll shows trump at 15 points, 15 points ahead of jeb bush. now in second at 16% while john kasich is third at 13%. moi marco rubio fourth at 12%. ted cruz 11%.

the poll shows an up-and-down week for trump. falling from 37% on thursday to 22% on saturday yet bouncing back to 33% on sunday. >> that's after the debate. >> it's also a slow climb for jeb bush at 12% on thursday climbing to 19% on saturday and 21% on sunday. >> look at those numbers. what do you call that? big mo. >> this while rubio fell from a high of 17% on friday before the debate to single digits on sunday after the debate. bush now has the highest fave rack favorability of the republican field with a net positivity of 17%. >> mark halperin. how stunning it is. go back to the favorability. you can see clear trend lines, jeb bush going from the low teens into the 20s over the course of four days. trump, up, down, back up. marco rubio down to single digits. but the most surprising number, right there, top line, a man who

has had the lowest favorability ratings throughout most of the campaign among republicans now in first place. if there was one line that jumped out at me yesterday and shocked me and maybe suggested something that might be a big surprise, it's that top line right there. >> guy said months ago he was the joyous tortoise and he would slowly come back here, and he has. donald trump continues to attack jeb bush. maybe he's doing it because he doesn't like him. maybe he's doing it because he gets good laughs for it. maybe he's doing it because he recognizes. if jeb bush finishes second tonight imagine the donations to his super pac. imagine his ability to have a comeback story that will position him in south carolina where he has some strength to be a finalist in this contest after being written off by many people. it will be a huge comeback. the fact that he's brought his favorability back is enormous. >> john, let me ask you. the candidate that i saw sunday, jeb bush, in --

>> jeb bush? >> jeb bush in nashville. >> john ellis bush. >> sunday was ta different candidate than the one i saw in iowa a week earlier. he's a free man now. he is a different candidate. >> the candidate who has -- who was written off as dead and was considered -- everybody says he can't come back, is completely over it. i am one of the people who said i thought jeb was dead months ago. that candidate can be a dangerous candidate, the one who is free and liberated, out to say how he feels, talk about what he wants to talk about. he's gone after trump more strongly than any other candidate in the field. late, very close. maybe too late. who knows but certainly late. he's sort of found his voice. he is in a great position in this respect. if john kasich and jeb bush are the establishment stories tonight, jeb bush is in such a better position in south carolina than john kasich that the jeb people will be thrilled,

even if they come in third, if they're behind kasich. >> polling on the democratic side erratic. over 700 likely primary voters has bernie sanders ahead by 12 points. that comes as a new poll shows the senator ahead by 26 points, 16-35. the same poll which was in the field through yesterday shows 64% of democratic primary voters who have definitely decided who they are voting for while 15% are still trying to decide. >> the thing about this poll, mika, at least on the republican side and i'm sure op the democratic side. but on the republican side 75% of the respondents in the poll were questioned before the debate. >> right. >> it's just not relevant. it's nonsense. i was surprised that they were putting that out as breaking

news last night. it's about as old of news as you can get in the poll. >> the debate was such an important moment. still yesterday talking to voters, people saying i'm deciding between bush, kasich or christie and rubio. to do the number before the poll doesn't make sense. >> as we mentioned, donald trump, who has actually led in every poll in new hampshire since july finished out his campaign strong. he had a rally, mika. it was a big one. >> we were there. it was like 5,000 supporters. the crowd was a mixture of the well off to disenfranchised. talked about his comments in favor of water boarding. he was prompted by a woman in the audience. an epithet to describe ted cruz and a warning, this language is offensi offensive. >> the other night at the debate they asked ted cruz, serious question, what do you think of water boarding? is it okay? honestly i thought he would say

absolutely and he didn't. he said well, it's, he'se concerned about the answer, because some people -- she just said a terrible thing. you know what she said? shout it out -- you're not allowed to say, and i never expect to hear that from you again. she said i never expect to hear that from you again. she said he's a pussy. that's terrible. terrible. now -- [ crowd chanting ] >> what kind of people do i have here? okay. what do i have? not so long ago, not so far from here, i had a group of people. we were doing question and answer. and somebody came up with a pretty tough statement about obama. and the press got very angry

because i didn't defend the president, remember? i took a lot of heat. and i didn't reprimand the person that said it. so i want to just tell you right now. ma'am, you're reprimanded, okay? can she stay? can she stay? [ cheers and applause ] >> you're reprimanded. so, for the press, this is a serious reprimand. >> okay. serious reprimand. >> no. no, you don't say that ever. >> no. >> it's a perfect metaphor for the campaign. if another candidate used that word on the eve of the primary his staff would be like, we could lose the primary over this. with trump it's just another day at the office. >> the crowd reaction. >> the crowd was incredible. >> the crowd reaction to that, before the reprimand. >> not politically correct. >> some people can really command an audience and their speech is just off the cuff and they think of it and say it.

that was donald trump last night. >> everything he did was off the cuff. he had a few notes. put them down, never looked at them. he spoke for, what, an hour? >> nothing planned. >> nothing calculated. >> no memorization involved there. >> no talking points. >> they talk about going to see the trump show. >> nothing robotic. >> the trump show last night. you walked into an arena. they were selling concessions. people were getting hot dogs and popcorn. >> it was like a rock show. >> like they were going to a rock concert. >> no beer. >> no beer. >> so i took my kids. we drive there. and when we got there, we opened up the doors and i go, okay, kids, we're at the rock show. put on your best wig. come on! it is a rock show. >> he by far has the best play list prior to his appearances. the music. >> a lot of rolling stones. >> dead serious, he doesn't practice. we were back stage with him. you two were jabbering away. he was talking to other people. and he was like, oh!

and he walked out. i don't know how long that was, 90 minutes. just off the cuff, nothing planned. nothing robotic. >> i was interviewing him, asking him how he was feeling about it. he's sitting there, well, joe -- and they go 30 seconds. i say were you confident? he goes after iowa we're wary but confident and they go, five seconds. they literally dragged him by his arm. he goes, i'll be right back. he walks out, every screaming and yelling. mika noticed something else that's very important. we walked through there before and she said this guy is a tv producer. nobody on the staff is a tv producer. nobody is trying to sell scripts out of l.a. also working on the campaign as a frustrated screen writer. it's all donald trump. and it's trump who had --

>> that's what was underestimated. >> even before the people came in we looked around and going, oh, my god, he set this thing up perfectly for tv. >> what it's going to look like, what he's going to say on stage, that stuff he's got. he doesn't have to practice for 20 years and go to speech class. >> since the invention of television our presidential campaigns have rewarded people who understand the medium. he understands it both as a performer and producer. when we interviewed him, he started helping us produce the shoot. he gets how television works. that's not the only strength he has but he dwarves everybody in the field. >> as rudy giuliani told us, he is the fastest learner that he's ever met. trump wasn't doing social media a couple years ago. a younger employee said, mr. trump, you should do social media. think about how more than any other candidate he has driven instagram and twitter into the

mainstream of political advertisement. >> meanwhile, meanwhile -- >> so there are events all across the state last night. marco rubio had one as well. he is working to bat back criticism or repeating himself at this weekend's debate. last night in nashua, some people noticed, perhaps, see what you all think as you watch that he was back in repeat mode. >> we are taking our message to families that are struggling to raise their children in the 21st century. as you saw we're raising our four children in the 21-century and we know how hard it's become to install our values in our kids instead of the values they try to ram down our throats. in the 21st century it's become harder than ever to instill in the values they teach in our homes and church instead of the values that they try to ram down our throats in the movies and music and popular culture. >> so that was him in nashua last night. i have to say, i think saturday night was terrible. if you watch that entire speech,

he was using that as a rhetorical device. when you watch a 30 second clip it sounds like he's repeating. i don't think it's as bad as it sounds in that clip. >> i think, no doubt, when you look at him -- we've seen all the candidates do this. we saw -- in fact, we saw donald trump do this right after iowa. and we all commented on it. got in his head. got in his own head. standing over a three-foot putt. he has the yips. donald worked through that. that's what my dad called it. i'm horrible with three-foot putts. marco has the yips. >> what's that? >> but you were talking about it too, also. he's even more cloistered as -- there are reports from politico this morning that, as chris christie would call him bubble boy because he's staying

completely away from the press now. he is in lockdown mode. >> he's done some tv interviews. he's always been less accessible to his traveling press than most other candidates. if he can come back here now and finish in the -- >> talk about the politico story. >> they just said he hadn't talked to the traveling press since thursday. chris christie talks to his traveling press 17 times a day and jeb is pretty accessible. >> jeb is too. >> he doesn't do the "on the fly" press availabilities. he has a chance to come back. if he finishes in the pack or second or third, which would surprise people given the debate. he has a chance to reassert himself. >> do you think he can finish second? >> right now i don't think he can. think about what could separate second from fifth. could be a few thousand votes. >> there's also nothing, nothing like running for president of the united states. none of us can compare what they're going through. >> nobody can imagine it. >> the level of exhaustion in all these candidates. i think it impacts from what we

just saw from marco rubio and all of them. >> that could be. >> it impacted donald trump in iowa, i thought, toward the end of the campaign. we saw it in manchester, former president clinton. he is exhausted and frustrated, and you can just feel the layers of exhaustion peeling off of him as he speaks. >> part of the problem for rubio is, bush, christie and kasich have devoted an enormous amount of resources and time in this state. rubio never did. he is going up against three guys who staked their candidacy on new hampshire. >> it's possible that we'll end up tonight and look up and say this whole rubio things turns out to have been clearly overstated and he ends up doing perfectly fine tonight and they have an incredible card to play against all of us. the voters didn't care about any of this. it's not impossible. i don't think it will happen that way but it's not impossible. >> for two and a half weeks before iowa we all talked about,

the entire political world talked about how ted cruz had the worst two and a half weeks. >> right. >> he was brutalized. brutalized on canada and brutalized on goldman sachsachs. another day was other bad story for ted cruz. the voters -- >> didn't care. >> so marco rubio could have the same thing happening to him this week. the voters end up, at the end of the day, making the decision. now, i have said that to other people and they say, well, but ted cruz has a turnout operation and that's what made the difference there. but marco rubio, a lot of people find him to be a very likeable guy. he has been advertising. we'll see tonight. >> he put his finger on it. he hasn't been here as often and as persistently as several of the others and it really is important here in new hampshire. you have to be here. >> still ahead on "morning joe," three of the republican contenders for president.

donald trump, governor john kasich and carly fiorina will each join us here on set. plus, a unique look at the potent political force behind bernie sanders' campaign. new perspective on his wife, jane sanders, that you'll only see here on "morning joe." up next, jeb bush puts some elbow grease into his campaign, setting up chairs at his own event. chris jansing sits down with the former governor. she joins us along with the "washington post's" robert costa. you're watching "morning joe" live from new hampshire. [ applause ] want to get their hands on. if they could ever catch you. ♪ meand to the city.c. we said goodbye the day. and drifted off into the twilight. and when we woke, we found that the whole world had reinvented itself. sail with princess cruises

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♪ gut instinct, where are you going to finish tomorrow? >> i don't know, but i think we're going to beat expectations. that's a low bar, though, since the obituaries were written about a day ago. >> you feel like you can finish above dead. >> yeah. exactly. >> 25 past the hour. joining us now, political reporter for the "washington post" and msnbc political analyst, robert costa. you saw in the interview with jeb right there. nbc news senior white house correspondent chris jansing. he seems to be in a good mood.

he was calling out his loyal followers. >> quite confident, i would say, that i haven't seen from that campaign in quite a long time. it's interesting to hear how people are all laying out the expectations, right? they've changed the way they describe where they want to finish. used to be i want to be top three. now it's top tier and they can adjust as need be. anything above dead for jeb is beating expectations. >> rubio's expectations last week, bob costa, three in iowa, two in new hampshire and one in south carolina. what happens if he doesn't get two in new hampshire? >> might he? could he? >> he might. i mean, i think rubio is the hardest person to read right now in this republican race because the debate was a mistake for him. it was a misstep. then you had the super bowl the next day. polling has been inconclusive. he still has a base of some conservatives and traditional republicans. we were just talking. he could finish from second to fifth. because it's so jumbled in the tech second tier. everywhere i go, kasich has the hot hand. he is seen as someone who is

positive in a sea of negativity. he appeals to independents and still has conservative cred from his time in the house and as a governor. he is sunny. new hampshire voters, they seem to like sunny. >> so you've got kasich, seems to have the hot hand. we've heard a lot about jeb bush. emerson poll, jumped from 12 to 21 in four days. are we looking at a trump, jeb and kasich top tier if you just look at expectations? >> if you sent me to vegas and asked me to put down money, that's what i would say. there is a big difference between being third -- a close third and a distant third. and if you do the math, i think one of the establishment candidates is going to get into the 20s. just the way the vote divides. it would be mathematically crazy. if they all don't bunch up around 12, 13, one will get to 20. that person would have a legup headed to south carolina. kasich has less going on in south carolina than bush. you could see everybody say, look, if john kasich is number

two, he won't do well in south carolina, let's all go to south carolina. all six could go. >> if the public polling holds up and you have donald trump winning and this pack of four or five people, what would be the rationale for any of them to get out of the race other than money? maybe they can raise money quickly. >> there is a debate a week from saturday. who wouldn't go to that. >> i don't think we'll see perhaps the great shakeout. you might see the whole crew minus a couple move south. >> there is a difference between going with a chance to compete in south carolina and just going. again, this saturday there is a debate. if you're chris christie and you finish sixth, you say, why not go be on the debate stage. >> torture! >> let's not understate, though, the importance of money. crist, marco rubio was telling everybody that would listen after iowa that we're going to get jeb's donor after new hampshire. that talk all stopped saturday night. marco could still finish in second or third place. the doubts remain with those

donors. is he going to melt down again? is he ready to go up against hillary clinton. if he does that poorly in friendly territory on the republican stage, how will he do against the clinton machine? so these results, either way, just like jeb. if jeb underperforms and finishes in, say, fourth, good luck getting the donors to re-up again. >> the difference is he has more money and the infrastructure in place in those states and they're counting on that. again, i think they feel pretty good about it. you have such an unsettled race. the donors are feeling unsettled when you talk to him. of course everybody wants to play with the winner. you see what happened after the debate last saturday. as you were saying, what might happen at the debate this saturday. everyone sees the possibility for a change here and is waiting to see where that goes. >> with john kasich rising to second place in some of the latest new hampshire polls, it would seem like a good time, as

any, to remind undecided voters that the ohio governor is a conservative. when kasich was asked by a voter at a town hall in wyndham why he deserved her vote in the democratic primary instead of hillary clinton and bernie sanders, here is what he had to say. >> so i'm still an undecided voter, but i am choosing between you, hillary, and bernie sanders. >> okay. isn't that interesting. >> hang with me. no, no, no. hang tight. >> no. here is the thing. okay. let me -- how do i get you over? come on. >> great. my question is -- >> let's get up close and personal. >> my question is why should i vote for you in the democratic primary tomorrow? >> look, i am an independent guy. nobody tells me what to do. i'm not way out here. bernie is the socialist. that ain't going to happen. it's just not going to happen. we're not going to tax people 95%. hillary is too brutal. bernie is way out on the extreme. i am the right porridge. one is too hot.

the other one is too cold, but i got the right temperature. >> it's the goldilocks strategy. >> he said i got the right temperature. when i was watching the debate the other night, what i said was he's pitch-perfect. he really was. >> yes. >> he was temperamentally exactly where he needs to be. >> there is no one more loose right now in this republican race, more relaxed and comfortable than john kasich. he is at ease with himself. he has made this bargain it seems. he'll talk about it. win or lose he goes home with his head held high. he didn't throw pot shots. he feels good about where he is in the race. i think it comes across well to voters. >> i've known john kasich very well, mark, since 1994. i have never seen kasich more relaxed, in personal interactions, in offices, in debate showdowns, in budget

battles. just talking about kids. than he was the other night on stage. in the debate. >> he has been telling all -- >> it's almost like he knows, i am in the zone. i -- you know. >> i own this place. >> i am ted williams. >> he's been telling all of us for months, those who knew me in the '90s knew about what i am like. he is a different guy. he is a confident guy. this state is good for him. he's devoted a lot to it. he either needs to do a lot better than his rivals think he can do in south carolina or he needs to wait out south carolina and then assume you can come back and do well in ohio, michigan and the other big states. everybody else in the field is saying, doesn't matter how he does tonight, he's dead after tonight. >> the thing is, okay, so he's not going to do well in south carolina or the deep south. trump and cruz probably are. but it always take a turn north, and you go to the midwest, to ohio, michigan. i mean, it's -- target-rich

states where usually this republican nomination is won at the end of the day. >> yep. >> and so, he -- all he has to do is wait it out for that turn north and he's back in the game. >> if he can. if bush is in it with him and bush does well in south carolina, you don't know that you can wait. but there is an argument for it. again, i think the other candidates are crazy to write him off. >> let me ask you a quick question on the democratic side. the fbi yesterday announced that they were, in fact, investigating hillary clinton after denying it, and investigating the emails. first of all, what about the timing, the day before the new hampshire primary? >> not a deal? >> any suggestion as to why they felt the need to formally confirm it? does that mean the interview is coming up and this process is about to pick up? >> i don't know that they think that there's any -- a process that's going to pick up. it's doing what it's doing. having said that, out on the trail, and going to bernie sanders, i don't hear a lot of

people talking about this, to be honest with you. i think a lot of people are either settled in, either it matters to the folks and they think they're there and unless something incredibly significant comes out, i don't see this changing the equation. >> bernie won't. >> thank you. coming up chris matthews joins us plus nbc's andrea mitchell who caught up with bill clinton on the campaign trail. he is not beiacking down on his attacks on bernie sanders. right back with that. ♪ you both have a perfect driving record.

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x1 customers get your voice remote by visiting xfinty.com/voiceremote. and still ahead, the republican frontrunner for president is here in new hampshire. donald trump joins us live on set. but first, bernie sanders has cut hillary clinton's fabase of female voters. kasie hunt joins us next live from manchester, new hampshire, at jd's tavern. we'll be right back. know your financial plan won't keep you up at night.

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this is about. >> you know, people say, you know, in america we should think small, we should not have a vision. well, making public colleges and universities tuition free, reducing significantly student debt, that's not a radical idea. >> i have said over and over again, i am a progressive. and i think being a progressive means you want to make real progress. you don't want to over promise. the last thing we need is promises that can't be met. >> we should be encouraging people to get an education. not making it harder and not forcing people to pay 20%, 25% of their income paying it back on student debt. >> you tell them, bernie! >> i am going to tell them. [ cheers and applause ] >> i just want to comment about something and get in trouble. >> oh, okay. >> last week bob woodward talked about how hillary clinton's voice was up high. >> i got in trouble. >> up high.

it's so interesting. i remember at the beginning of the 2008 campaign, i would be listening to her and it would be like, come on, show a little range. you notice in new hampshire -- >> totally. >> -- she has found her voice. she's found her range. in iowa she was up here all the time. bernie is up loud too, but he will drop down. then he will sound like larry david. then he will say -- and then my grand -- then he'll be back up high! but hillary was starting to show this week. have you noticed? hillary is starting to show range. she is stopping. she is letting there be a pause. it's not like she is uncomfortable and hammering through it. she is becoming a better performer before our eyes this week politically. >> not seeing the joy. >> they're both -- some people get hit for when people say that hillary shouts at these rallies. i just say both of them, for most of the democratic fight for months sanders and clinton were both yelling at people in all -- especially in iowa. >> in iowa especially.

>> yelling, yelling, yelling, yelling. here both of them, maybe it's because they're getting better or maybe because they're more tired. they're modulating more. i noticed yesterday at the manchester thing that hillary is going softer and has found a better modulation. >> more skilled, perhaps. >> so much more powerful. >> joining us now msnbc political correspondent kasie hunt. you've been on the trail following these folks. today new hampshire democrats go to the polls to choose between the 2008 winner of their state's contest and a widely popular senator from neighboring vermont. on the eve of the primary it was bill clinton who seized the headlines after unleashing a withering attack on bernie sanders and his supporters on sunday night. here is the former president yesterday seemingly acknowledging the attention those comments drew. >> the hotter this election gets, the more i wish i were just a former president and just for a few months not the spouse of the next one.

because, you know, i have to be careful what i say. tonight my job is to introduce hillary. sometimes when i'm on a stage like this i wish we weren't married and i could say what i really think. >> what was that? >> despite -- >> you y'all weall were there, ? >> he said he wished sometimes he weren't the spouse of the candidate so he could let it rip and say what he thinks. a couple days ago he really went after bernie sanders. >> he has a lot more to say than he's actually able to say. >> the hillary campaign would tell you when he says, i probably shouldn't say this or i'll get in trouble. but he didn't do that yesterday. but he did continue and kasie, you know this, drawing the contrast, it's not so bad to be the establishment. look at all the things we've done. i don't know why we make it a dirty word. the theme in the subtext of hillary's were that the theme of

bernie's remarks were fantasy. >> in the '90s, trying to be centrist democrats, getting things done after a long period of republican control. you guys were at the rally yesterday with bernie sanders as well. i've been struck over the last couple of days he's doing things that you typically only see from frontrunner candidates. instead of acting like the underdog all the time. he did not come out and respond to bill clinton's comments. they were aggressive about making sure he stayed away from all interviews from all reporters. huge switch for bernie sanders who has typically been pretty easy going and easy to deal with. he is traveling in a massive secret service bubble. we were in a nine-vehicle motorcade down the road here. >> i don't know why it was this way, but i have been to presidential addresses. i have never seen the secret service presence that i saw around bernie sanders yesterday. >> it's really high. part of it is because --

>> what's up? >> part of it is because he makes his own decisions on the fly all the time, which makes your security, of course, a little bit nervous. they're not in there ahead of time. >> were you surprised, though, by how many secret service people were swarming around him? >> i think everybody has been very surprised, because it's so dramatically opposite to the way it has been. >> he's also traveling with a lot of family. he has a lot of kids, kids and spouses and grandkids. the detail has to be big enough to protect the whole family, not just the candidate. so they're a very unwieldy group right now. >> responding to the big picture. which leaves the clintons having the argument with themselves. politico reported yesterday the clinton campaign is considering a staff shakeup citing half a dozen people with direct knowledge of the situation the cite writes, quote, hillary and bill clinton so dissatisfied

with the campaign's messaging and operations they're considering staffing and strategy changes after what's expected to be a loss in new hampshire. yesterday clinton responded to that report in an interview on msnbc. >> somebody showed that to me. i have no idea what they're talking about and who they're talking to. we're going to take stock but it's going to be the campaign that i've got. i'm committed to the people i have and they're committed to doing the best we can. we'll take stock. what works and what doesn't. we're moving into a different phase of the campaign. of course it would be malpractice not to say, what worked, what can we do better, what do we need to do new and different that we have to pull out? >> john heilemann, any clue what's going on here? >> well, this is classic -- a classic clinton scenario. first of all, everyone who went to work for this campaign always assumed at some point this would happen. this is what happens with the clintons. at some point you have a crisis

in the campaign and there are discussions of shakeups. it's bad for morale to have this discussion on the eve of the new hampshire primary. is it true? hillary clinton says i'm going forward with the team i have. at the same time people are saying there will be a shakeup. both things are possible. when the clintons have a shakeup. they don't fire people they just layer. they bring in people from the past and put new people on top of old people. this happened eight years ago after new hampshire. there was a similar thing. i think it's the case that the dr the core truth, though, is that she and her husband are exceptionally frustrated with the way this campaign has gone. >> to repeat what mika is saying, we are taking live shots from manchester. this is hillary clinton greeting a group of supporters on the morning of the new hampshire primary, hoping that in 2016 voters will go out and shock the polls and the pundits the same way she did eight years ago. mike barnicle.

>> off of what john was just indicating, speaking with someone in the clinton campaign last evening, the level of frustration, with former president clinton, is extraordinarily high. the two of them have been together here for more than a few days together, which just added to the joint frustration. so yeah, there probably will be some change in direction. there will be some change, i think, distinctly in the way they are for lack of a better phrase marketing her. >> the tweet of the day yesterday from david axelrod when the reports came out about changing the campaign. when the exact same problems crop up in separate campaigns with different staff at what point do the principals say, hey, maybe it's us? quote. >> the clintons too -- i was talking to sources in the supertuesday coming up states they're holding sessions with the donors and surrogates and talking about how they're going to damage bernie sanders. one person put it to me, trying to knock the white knight off

his horse. >> that's going to be a problem. >> the problem right now in hillary clinton's campaign, and it must have been the problem in 2008, is there is nobody that can go up to her and tell her exactly like it is. we've heard it from everybody around they are. we've heard it for decades. they tell her what they think she wants to hear. that's why when she is confronted with very basic facts like you got paid a lot of money from banks she acts shocked and calls it a smear. she always appears shocked on the debate stage and ill-prepared for the most basic swing that's coming at her. that's because she doesn't have anybody around her that can speak truth to power. and that's been an ongoing problem. >> john, you said a minute ago that people inside the campaign always knew that when a crisis came this would happen. what is, for people at home, the crisis exactly right now? i don't think she ever expected to win here. if she keeps it close, she has

money and moves forward. what's the crisis? >> i don't think that's right. bernie sanders correctly points out that when he got in the race hillary clinton was ahead in 40 points in new hampshire. >> within the last couple months he's pulled ahead. >> the reality of the tie in iowa and now maybe getting beaten by double digits here. i think many people in the campaign assumed she would win more decisively in iowa and she might conceivably win here. it's just the reality now that they're going to move out of new hampshire in a state the clintons are so invested in, it's been so good for them for so long, leaving potentially getting beaten badly by bernie sanders is hard. >> we'll get to the tease but i think that it's a mistake to attack bernie sanders just as much as it was a mistake on the republicans' part to attack barack obama when he came on the national stage. it's a bad dynamic. they're missing the vote. they have to look at the optics. >> it's almost an undefinable sense, when you're watching the

clinton campaign, especially the candidate, former senator clinton, she has had one foot out the door heading south for about 48 hours. you just get that sense, you know. let's get to a larger state. >> kasie hunt, thank you for joining us. coming up, a republican candidate surging in new hampshire right now. governor john kasich will be here at the table as he looks for a new lease on the presidential race. "morning joe" is back in a moment live from new hampshire. i think it landed last tuesday.

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okay. coming up at the top of the hour -- >> boy did new hampshire come up with a surprising finish tonight. the nbc news projected winner in this new hampshire presidential primary by a wide margin, senator gary hart, democrat of colorado. >> oh, my goodness! tom brokaw has seen plenty of surprises here in new hampshire. yes, he has. so what's in store tonight? >> he's seen plenty of surprises in new hampshire, and he almost predicted one of the biggest eight years ago when he told everybody to cool it and let the voters vote. >> absolutely. we're going to do that again today. but tom joins the table next. plus, live interviews with donald trump, john kasich and carly fiorina. and as we go to break, a look at bedford, new hampshire, where polls are about to open. "morning joe" live from new hampshire, coming right back.

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♪ after the super bowl several presidential candidates actually took time to share their thoughts on the game. here is what they said. jeb bush said peyton did a great job. let's not forget about his younger brother, eli, who is also a good football candidate. marco rubio said peyton knew exactly what he was doing. peyton new exactly what he was doing. ben carson said i can't get over how the players knew when to go on the field. chris christie said, wait, that guy from the papa johns commercials plays football? how is he supposed to know.

>> okay. those are good! welcome back to "morning joe." we're live at jd's tavern in manchester, new hampshire, where voters finally have their say in the first of the nation primary today. with us we have managing editor of "bloomberg politics" john heilemann. sam san antonio and nbc news special correspondent tom brokaw, along with willie, joe and me. here we are. >> front page of "the boston herald" talks about trump's huge test and basically says he has to win here. you know, mika, we went to the event last night. again, in a snow storm. 4,000 to 5,000 people were there. i don't know the exact number. >> it was packed. >> easily the biggest crowd that we've seen up here. no other candidate came close. you look at the polls that have him 20 points ahead.

somebody tweeted last night, if trump does not win here tonight, then none of the metrics count anymore. the polls don't matter. this will be the second time in a row that what we saw in iowa i won't say ended up being a mirage because trump still got more votes than they expected to get. their target was 45,000. if he doesn't win tonight and doesn't win comfortably, then there is a ghost in the machine. >> yeah. i have to say, looking at that audience, it was an incredible mix of middle class, people who were fairly well off to those who feel excluded from society. they were all unified. they were yelling back, shouting. mexico is going to build the wall and all sort of basic chants that he has made up along the way. they were engaged. they seemed like people who planned to vote. >> and tom, we -- we haven't

been coming up as long as you have, but we've been coming up -- we've gone to a lot of rallies. >> i was coming up here before mika was born! [ laughter ] >> i'm not so sure about that. >> 1972 was my first new hampshire primary. >> i was 4. >> you were 4, right. >> i've never seen it. maybe you can put it into perspective. i remember eight years ago us talking about 1200 people at an obama event. that's something. last night 5,000 people in the snow for donald trump. >> well, that's been the characteristic of his campaign all during the year and how much of that is donald trump who wants to be president and is laying out a plan and how much of that is the celebrity donald trump. i mean, it's a great show that he puts on. let's give him full credit for that. he has touched a big nerve in this country. he's tapped into the outrage that people feel, not just about immigration but about the failure of government to get things done. and he has that great capacity to do it with the kind of language that you used to hear at the end of the bar at 2:00 in

the morning. now you're able to hear it on twf television and see it on social media. people feel connected to that. the interesting part of this race is what happens at the lower end. the motto in new hampshire is, as we all know, live free or die. for kasich, jeb bush and chris christie it's finish high or die. they have to get up into the race at some point. that will be as important to watch, quite honestly, going forward as what happens with donald trump. >> and also, of course, marco rubio, who willie had said, for them to move forward, they had to be third in iowa, second in new hampshire, first in south carolina. he can still finish a strong second. he surprised a lot of people in iowa. but he's fighting against the momentum of john kasich and the momentum of jeb bush and his own slipups on saturday night. >> if we're being honest i don't think anyone of this group would be surprised if we woke up tomorrow and there were a list of four or five people who came in second place, including marco rubio. if you think about marco rubio,

if he comes through what he's been through the last three days or so being battered by the media because of his debate performance and say i finished second in spite of that because it's about you the voters and not what the media says about my debate performance it would be huge for him. >> second place would be huge for him. >> i was talking to keith last night, the guy who goes around with trump. he said you have to see the rope line. they have people who faint in the rope line to shake hands with donald trump. i don't think they're fainting to meet the other candidates. >> rock show. >> well, i don't know -- >> i've some people faint in sanders' rallies. >> sanders. >> but there's -- there's -- there's an element of excitement that's a little different with donald trump's events that's not what you see in even the really effective events that are more old-school town hall events john kasich or jeb bush.

it's totally conceivable to me that a second place finisher will get into the 20s. that will matter if trump is around 30 and there is one candidate who is up in the 20s and is in a clear second place. that really matters. there is a consensus that bush and kasich are on the move. the two outstanding questions is how much has marco rubio fallen, if at all. we don't know. and how much has chris christie risen on the basis of his performance on saturday night. we don't know that either. those are the big outstanding variables in terms of where boat share goes by the end of tonight. >> sam san antontein, was does trump have to do tonight? what if he's 24%, 25%, even if he wins and underperforms again? is that a problem? >> to the extent that it feeds the perception that a lot of these poll numbers that we obsess over are wrong and that we are inflating his support a

little bit, yeah, i do think that's a problem. then the expectations are that he actually doesn't have a solid base of support. this is all anecdotal reporting. i was at the rally last night sitting in the cheap seats. it is a rock star, basically. there are pluses and minuses to that. you can tell that by talking to people. five dartmouth kids drove down from hanover in the snow storm to see him. only four of them will actually support the guy. one was going to support him but was too embarrassed to give his name on the record because he's worried about future employment. i got a great quote. die-hard trump supporter wearing all the paraphernalia. he said, america has a cancer. donald trump is chemotherapy. you have incredibly committed people to donald trump and you have people who are there just to see the show. >> yeah. final poll. let's look at the numbers. final poll heading into today's vote shows donald trump maintaining his strong lead, perhaps a late surge for jeb

bush at 31%, the emerson college poll shows trump 15 points ahead of jeb bush. now in second at 16%. while john kasich is third at 13% and marco rubio fourth at 12%. ted cruz at 11, carly fiorina, 7. chris christie, 6. >> you look at this, tom brokaw, 5. 5 points separate second place from sixth place. >> incredible. >> that's within the margin of error almost. big difference calling your d e donors going, hey, we finished second in new hampshire. hey, i understand we finished sixth but it was a close sixth. that's a hard call to make! >> you have to remember what state we're in. i have been coming here all this time. i've been looking at polls just like that. this state often goes rogue. no one expected john mccain to blow out george bush, for example. no one thought pat buchanan who effectively was running on talk radio and telephones to win the

new hampshire primary when he won, going all the way back. no one anticipated that gene mccarthy would finish such a strong second as he did or that gary hart would place as well as he did. so this is a state that cherishes its independence and, between last night and this morning, people are saying, maybe i have a different idea. they're talking to their friends, their wives and their husbands and they're going to the polling places. one reason that we always come back here is that they have a way of surprising us. >> what do you sense? do you answer anything out there right now? >> i think that it looks pretty hard for donald trump not to finish first, but as you know, joe, i have been saying this for a long time. count the votes, not count the speculation. counts the votes at the end of the day. i think that's the important thing. >> i was struck going to these events yesterday how many people are still talking about like four months ago, my top three. i've got my top three. >> what's wrong with you. pick someone already. >> still watching, they want to see the candidates and hear them out. there is still a pack of

undecideds, the big group of independents. >> how crazy when you hear them say my top three are, hillary, bernie and kasich. >> yes. >> i know. >> then bernie, trump and rubio. or i mean -- it's just -- >> oh, my goodness. >> pretty crazy. >> the poll shows up and down week for donald trump falling from 37% on thursday to 22% on saturday, yet bouncing back to 33% on sunday. also a slow climb for jeb bush at just 12% on thursday, climbing to 19% on saturday and 21% on sunday. >> that's a trend line you want to have. >> this while rubio fell from a high of 17 on friday before the debate to single digits on sunday after the debate. bush now has the highest favorability of the republican field with a net positive rating of 17%. >> that's incredible. >> sam stein, before we go to

the democrats. that's one that really makes you shake your head. jeb bush has been upside down in almost every single republican poll i've seen of this cycle. >> maybe that's an outlier. if not it's an incredible testament to his campaign and campaign staff for turning it around. that's not an easy number to turn around. >> a net plus 17. >> as you know, mark and i have been coming up here for the last year doing focus groups up here. one of the most striking features of them has been a total lack of interest in jeb bush throughout the primary. and now suddenly, just by sheer, it seems, on sheer persistence and sticking to it up here, he seems to have apparently turned that around. you know, if he comes in second here, it would be one of more remarkable comebacks we've seen in the state. >> this guy has been holding town hall meeting after town hall meeting. >> plodding through. >> if the knock on bush -- i have to admit, i have known jeb for a very long time. and you can't know jeb or any

bush without thinking at some point, yeah, that's great. but what if his last game were smith. and what jeb has shown me as a guy who has known him and liked him and respected him for a very long time is, a month ago when he was getting mocked and ridiculed, holding five town hall meetings a day on saturday on foreign policy, five on sunday. i mean he just rolled up his sleeves, and i think he's shown the people of new hampshire, i don't care what my last name is. i am going as bill clinton would say, i am going to fight until the last dog dies. he is going to scratch and claw and win it or lose it but he's going to fight till the end. i think he has probably gained a lot of people's respect through that. >> polling on the democratic side continues to be swomewhat erratic. emerson college poll has bernie sanders ahead by 12 points, 54-42. but that comes as a new cnn/wmur

poll shows the senator ahed 61-35. the same poll in the field through yesterday shows 64% of democratic primary voters have definitely decided who they're voting for while 15% say they're still trying to decide. >> i have to say, tom, this is the poll where i think we're flying blind. hillary surprised everybody eight years ago. >> i'm not going to underestimate her. >> i was coming in here this morning and hillary was going out. we saw her earlier at the first polling station. she was out early and there is already talk about shaking up her campaign if it doesn't work out here. the thing is, i think we owe it to our audiences at some point to go back and look at all the polls before the voters had something to say. and when they had something to say, how much credibility do we give all these polls? we spend so much time on them and they're going back and forth

constantly. i don't think at this point that they're the kind of guide that the voters are looking for or that we should spend asmu much time on. it is telling you that this place is very much in flux. voters and the people that the pollsters talk to are getting very canny about what they're saying. they're changing their minds from time to time and i'm not sure they're always telling the truth about what they're going to do, with good reason. >> a lot of this tracking polling we're seeing happened before the debate on saturday. the numbers are going up and down. it's hard to keep -- >> hard to gauge. >> it is. at this point in the campaign season really no candidate has visited new hampshire more than governor chris christie of new jersey. he's still back in the polls a bit. yesterday when an undecided voter asked a question at one of his town halls he literally got on bended knee. >> i haven't decided yet. >> all right. one of those shoppers. here we go. >> i really like you and this is

the turning point -- >> what do i need to do? >> explain your social security. >> you want me to explain the social security plan. >> i am 53 years old. i am very nervous about retiring. >> okay. >> my husband works his ass off. i can't -- we paid into it. >> yeah. >> i am really afraid of it going away and becoming an entitlement. >> i'm going to explain it to you. >> please. please convince me. honest to god, i want to vote for you. and this is the hanging point. >> i was going to get up, but i think i'll stay on one knee. >> by the way, yesterday governor christie picked up the endorsement of reality tv baker buddy velasco. >> call the election. no need to vote. it's over. >> the interesting part about that exchange, however, that's a real question. what's going to happen to social security and we've not heard a lot of those kinds of exchanges during the course of this debate, quite honestly.

from the bombast on down, there are a lot of issues that people should know about and want to know about and we're not getting that in the debates. it's really about a kind of a gotcha session that goes on for two hours. >> the questions at the town halls are great. christie and i have beef. i know. i get it. doesn't like me. he is the most talented retail politician at these events anyone, i think. >> except for trump. >> i think he's just really good in a town hall setting. i have been surprised that it hasn't reflected. i know we over-value the polls. it hasn't reflected but he is just really good at it. >> john heilemann, as far as retail, person to person, talking in these smaller rooms, at these town hall meetings. he has had some remarkable moments up here. what's even more remarkable is new hampshire allows you moments like that. >> yeah. >> they want to hear them. >> he has connected in a powerful way. he is quick on his feet. he is very passionate. he can be emotional and

empathetic. all those things are true. it's interesting. he started to get that moment where it looked like he was getting traction in the state in november or so. then there was a ton of negative advertising that dropped on him painting him as a moderate, too liberal for the republican party and i think it dragged him back down again and he hasn't quite recovered even though his skills, as we all said, quite strong. tom brokaw, thank you so much for being on with us. still ahead, donald trump thinks john kasich might make a good running mate but kasich is eyeing for the top job himself. interviews with both candidates here on set. plus, carly fiorina joins us in our next hour. she is drawing quite a crowd on the campaign trail, but as the union leader points out, there was at least one woman who was more interested in finishing her breakfast? hello? up next, chuck todd is standing by. you're watching "morning joe." we'll be right back live from jd's tavern in new hampshire.

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watching tvs get sharper, you've had it tough. bigger, smugger. and you? rubbery buttons. enter the x1 voice remote. now when someone says... show me funny movies. watch discovery. record this. voila. remotes, come out from the cushions, you are back. the x1 voice remote is here. >> tomorrow you have to get out, and you have to vote no matter what. i say it all the time.

if you're sick, if you're really like you can't move, you're close to death, your doctor tells you it's not working, your wife is disgusted with you. she said, i'm leaving, no matter what, she says, darling, i love you, but i've fallen in love with another man. i don't give a damn. you have to get out to vote! >> all right. >> that is compelling! >> that's some interesting closing argument to the people of new hampshire. >> what a strategy. at least he is not threatening them, i guess. joining us now, nbc news political director and moderator of "meet the press" and host of mtp daily, chuck todd. good to have you on board, chuck, with sam [ applause ] >> there we go. that's nice. >> you get a big applause. >> you know, chuck, there's so much -- >> please clap. >> -- to talk about. so much to talk about here.

republican side jumbled. democratic side. what's the main story? >> can we stop ignoring who is going to win. we're so worried about who will finish second, third and fourth. bernie sanders and donald trump will fiwin the new hampshire primary. six months ago we thought it was an insane thought. six months ago we would have said you're crazy. no i'm not 100% sure. it's new hampshire. these folks wake up and eat the pepperidge farm and go, i'm going someplace else. it's hard to imagine somebody who has led in 75 straight polls like trump has or with sanders, 50 out of 55 or something. they're likely going to win. that in itself, we should stop worrying about who is second and start realizing that new hampshire is sending -- the country is ticked off and new hampshire is the first one to tell us. >> if -- if that happens, that will be a message.

right now, though, you have some undecideds still. and john heilemann, i keep hearing it from everybody out there. jeb bush is on the rise. and john kasich has the hottest hand. >> you know, given how bad the state of public polling is, given all the complexity around the super bowl, the debate and everything else. whether kasich or bush has the hottest hand, hard to know. one of the two has the hottest hand right now. i think that's a consensus view among a lot of republicans. >> let's talk about campaign strategy. you saw donald trump saying, no matter what's happened to you get out there and vote. there's this reading from the "wall street journal" from janelle ross. madeleine albright said there is a special place for women who don't support other women. that's a set of ideas that may be almost always applicable in the office but when it comes to

politics, albright and anyone else who agrees with this idea may need to remember that young female voters are like all others. their votes must be earned. and any sort of entitled claim that certain votes belong to certain candidates opens the people and campaigns that lean upon them to reasonable ridicule. it's also a tactic that clinton and her supporters already tried in 2008 when clinton was trying to defeat barack obama. it did not work well then either. >> what do you think, mika? >> i think it's a really bad strategy. i think that hillary clinton should have had madeleine albright on stage talking about foreign policy and how she is the best suited for the job because of they are credentials and should have ignored the fact that they're women. >> it's really time. sam stein. may have been historic eight years ago but eight years later by a two to one margin young women don't care. they just don't care. and hillary clinton, i think

it's even stronger for hillary clinton. as they revamp their strategy, maybe they go with a strategy with it doesn't matter if i am a man or if if i am a woman. if i am black or if i am white, if i am hispanic -- whatever i -- baptist. it doesn't matter. i am the most qualified person to sit in the oval office. and you need to elect me because i'll fight harder for you than anybody else and, while i'm fighting, i will know how to bring this country together and how to make us strong across the globe again. and just put that aside. because when they start talking about this stuff, they get in trouble. whether it's with donald trump or whether it's -- whether it's after the stinum blowup. >> the albright quote is so well known and famous. she has been saying it for so

long that it adorned the side of a starbucks cup at one point. this is not new. in the context of the campaign i can see why people were taken aback by it. i talked to a bunch of women who were supporting brerernie sande to get a sense of what it was that drew them to bernie. to a person they said they don't consider gender when choosing a candidate. they also said they were torn about it because it is historic if they do have a female president. and not only that they do think a female would bring a better, different perspective to the oval office. >> the problem is, it's the look at the bird strategy that you talk about all the time with the clinton campaign. what's hanging over the clinton is the wall street speeches, which some may get access to and an fbi investigation. >> which got confirmed yesterday. >> bringing breaking news. >> not helpful to her. >> what we saw is sort of these

things looming over her. i am a woman. it's historic. let's bring other women to talk about it. it's historic. i am a woman. look at the bird! >> you go back to i guess this is where they've highlighted a flaw in their own campaign in this respect. they wanted to do this six months ago. six months ago they said to us, this time we are going to embrace the historic nature of her candidacy because of millenials. they said, i remember going through this. they said millennials respond to the idea of breaking the glass ceiling, of breaking history and they thought this was a way to rally young women. let me defend, going back to the madeleine albright. >> they don't care. >> the clinton campaign hasn't exactly figured out a way to tap into it. they haven't tried to create a campaign. six months ago maybe chelsea clinton should have been doing more. they've been using chelsea more and bill less. to start firing up women. look, this is a generational thing. women of albright's generation

were told, you couldn't get promoted. >> right. >> so they look at it -- that's why she feels this way. >> they were told, shut up, go away and don't speak about it. >> my mother says, you have to understand how hard it was for women in the work force in the '70s and '80s. women were forced to compete against each other for the one seat for the woman in the board room. and that wasn't -- that's why you have albright saying, hey, women shouldn't beat up other women. you've got to help other women. >> former governor jennifer granholm was in the seat yesterday. she supports hillary clinton. i had a clinton supporter say, i'm glad i wasn't her yesterday. she effectively conceded that point. she said, this appeal to history is something that can be understood by baby boomers. and millennials don't see it. >> hillary clinton calls donald trump sexist, gets killed. by the way, a lot of sources

close to the campaign say that was an ugly two weeks. a really ugly two weeks for the clintons. gloria steinh gloria stinum says if your a woman and are supporting clinton you are doing it because you want to pick up men. madelyn albright says a woman we love and respect calls her father and says, it's your father's birthday. ant anti madelyn you can't tell them that they're going to hell. it's clumsy gender politics. when you get up -- it's really awful. they need to just put this behind them and say, she is the most qualified. vote for her. >> well, look, sam makes the right point about madelyn albright. there are two basic things driving a lot of what's going on

in the clinton campaign right now. they're both surprise and perplexedness. no one thought there was a chance that you would look up right now and see hillary clinton losing the women's vote to bernie sanders. they did not expect that. they don't really understand it. nobody really understood that a 74-year-old man could be dominating with millennials the way bernie sanders is. those two surprises have knocked the clinton campaign off kilter for weeks now. >> we have to wrap. ten seconds. how important is the fbi investigation being announced, chuck? >> oh, i think confirmation just -- certainly with independent voters here. i think it hurts more here than in a place like iowa. >> chuck todd, thank you. sam, thank you as well. donald trump joins us in just a minute. we'll see how he's feeling as the decision is now in the hands of voters. first, governor john kasich is here. [ applause ] you do all this research on a perfect car,

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that's why i switched from u-verse to xfinity. now i can download my dvr recordings and take them anywhere. ready or not, here i come! (whispers) now hide-and-seek time can also be catch-up-on-my-shows time. here i come! can't find you anywhere! don't settle for u-verse. x1 from xfinity will change the way you experience tv. oh, here we are, live at the tavern. the bar is -- there are some people actually at the bar, which is frightening. back here we've got a great crowd. how are you all doing? [ cheers and applause ] joining us now, msnbc national reporter tony decopo, live from the high school. 14,000 voters expected to come

through the station today. has it been busy yet? >> yeah. hi mika and joe. it is busy. about a hundred people before the polls even opened. the traffic is snarled to get in here. in this election we're hearing a lot about undeclared voters and undecided voters. the 30 feet here from the door at the end to where the voting booths are, this is where people have to make their final decision. they have 30 steps before they get to the point where they have to pick a ballot. republican or democratic. this guy is steve, one of the assistant moderators. he's asking people do you have an i.d. if you don't for the first time in a presidential primary you have to have photo i.d. or else you have to sit for a polaroid. i checked with people out back. bernie, bernie, bernie, kasich, kasich seems to be the mix so far. what timing! isn't that something, tony. thank you very much. speaking of, joining us now the

republican governor of ohio, presidential candidate john kasich. did you hear that? >> i heard it. >> bernie, bernie, bernie. >> makes you nervous, doesn't it. >> honestly, the strangest thing. i'm so calm. i don't -- i can't explain it other than we've done everything we need to do here and it's in the hands of the voters. you know what, i have had a ball. 106 town hall meetings. not just the issues. we were talking a little bit. i always finds in politics two things, the head and the heart. if you can show both the head and the heart, that's the way you connect. that's the best you can do, right? i am really cool with whatever happens here. >> do your shortened wrap of what we have to do. >> i told mika on the air the other day that a lot of people feel like nobody is connected to them and that they're all alone. whether it's their wins or their

losses. i think we have to slow down in our lives. joe, it's amazing. people crying in the town halls and cheering. what i have concluded is that a lot of people just want somebody to care about them. so if we slow down and listen to our families and we listen to our neighbors and maybe even we listen to somebody who we run into at an airport or we run into at the dining room, listen to them. that's what america is about. it's about us being together. and i think the more we're together like that, the glue is so important and the foundation of america. and then of course, you have to go to jobs, though. i like to say that, if you think of a family as a house, if you don't have jobs there at the base, the foundation, you don't have a strong house. so it's a bunch of different things you have to do. but i'm excited about, i have not found the anger or the division. i know people are deeply concerned about a lot of issues. >> you're not seeing it out at your town hall meetings, the anger and the rage? >> i am not seeing it at all.

concern but no anger. >> i was telling everybody earlier this morning, i have known you since '94. we've known each other a lot. worked together and fought together, on the same side. >> absolutely. >> balanced the budget and do a lot of other things. i said it was interesting, saturday night at the debate, it was the most relaxed i have seen you in 22 years. i said, john is more comfortable right now in this spot than i have seen him privately or publicly. it's a strange place to go zen. but you went zen -- >> you totally did! >> you went zen at a really good time. can you explain that phenomenon? what happened? >> joe, first of all, the town halls i've always been zen. it's the 30 second or 60 second sound bites and debates that don't allow me to show people who i am. it finally came through on saturday night. want me to tell you what i did?

before i went to the debate -- we didn't do a lot of preparation. i said, lord, you took me to the top of the mountain. i have to walk down. don't let me walk alone. and he didn't. helped me out. how do you like that? >> well, that will do it. that will do it. >> the conventional wisdom going into these debates and really through the campaign is, who needs to go after whom right now to get the edge? who has to attack donald trump or marco rubio or jeb bush. you for the most part have resisted that. talk about that strategy a little bit. why has that been effective for you? >> you know, i don't know what we sell. i mean, "morning joe" has done very well. they don't trash the other shows. so why don't you put your best thing out there. you know, people talking about changing american politics. why don't we just get rid of all the goofy negative ads and just talk about what we're for. i'm not going to take a pounding from anybody. you don't want to mess with me. but i would prefer to tell people what my vision is and what i want to do than spend my time talking about somebody else or running somebody else down.

and i find that people like that. they'd rather hear positive than negative, i think. i am right? [ cheers ] >> you got it. >> how do you navigate through your party, that seems to be filled with several other candidates who are consumed with anger and seem to be obsessed with barack obama, who is not on the ballot? >> you know, mike, look, i think voters are all the same across the country in terms of their concerns. am i going to lose my job in my 50s. can i be retrained. can i keep my job. will my wages go up. will my kid who has run up all this debt be able to get a job. and what about social security. voters are the same everywhere. i think you speak to those concerns. by the way, people say which lane are you in? can you imagine somebody calling me establishment? no. i've been the farthest thing. but i am not anti-establishment. i operate in that lane because i grew up in a town where if the wind blew the wrong way people found themselves out of work and

i am standing up for those folks, mike. i will get the reagan, blue-collar democrats back in the republican party. i promise you. >> how do you describe the challenge of trying to unite your party and unite the country? >> i don't think it's that hard. here is the thing. life is short. i'm going to do the best i can. if i don't win, it's -- it will be okay. you know, a lady said to me the other day, you can leave new hampshire with your head high and with integrity. i am creating my own legacy for my family and i'm not going to sit around just freaking out about this or that. be yourself. be relaxed. you know. relaxed is the right way to go in politics. you know that, joe. that's what you did. you were relaxed. you let it all hang out. that's kind of what i'm doing. >> is that how you would describe joe? >> that's what a lot of people say about me. no. i am. >> i'm saying be yourself and let it flow. let me tell you. i think that our republican party, the philosophy of my party is economic growth but

leave no one behind. you can't ignore people who live in the shadows. here in new hampshire, if you're driving down a road and somebody slides off into the ditch, you don't drive past them. you stop and help them. if they're driving in the ditch constantly, you'll get them some help, okay. i think we all want to help everybody be lifted in america again. renew the spirit. >> what does that mean from a policy point of view? if you can weave in what you said about slowing down, looking out for each other? how do we put that prescription onto politics and what you would do as president. >> creating jobs. >> first of all you want to create jobs. when you have economic growth, you reach out to other people. whether the mentally ill, drug addicted. working poor, developmentally disabled or minority community. in in the minority community they have to believe they can rise too, that their children can become superstars. that has to be communicated across the country. one thing we also have to think

about. the only thing that's operating slow in the 21st century is government. why don't we figure out how to integrate government, decra decentralize it and provide better services at lower prices so people can respect the government again. >> what would you do about a particular slice of the country, someone between the age of 48 and 55 who suddenly loses his or her job and know that that job that they've held for 20 years is never coming back. what do you do about people like that? >> it's job training. we're working on it now in our state. we have to work on it as a nation. the people who live in the shadows. 53-year-old guy or woman who loses their job and they get excited and send out resumes and they never get a call. we have to train them for the jobs that exist today and the jobs that will exist tomorrow. we know what they are. we need metrics in this country that shows what's the in-demand jobs. we're doing it in the state. i want to do it all over america. then we can begin to get people

driven towards the things where their passions are, where they can get trained and work. >> what do you need to do tonight to move the campaign full throttle to south carolina and beyond? >> we sent the bus to south carolina. i think we'll do very well. i'm not going to get into predicting finishes. that will be silly on election day since i avoided it all the time. but we'll have a very strong finish. last night we had this rally. fo three or four hundred people driving in a snow storm with the lights. i thought i was in a movie. the key has been our ground game. i have labored in obscurity for months. i always felt we'd walk out of the woods into the bright light. we'll see tonight. if you win dixville notch, you know you have it made. [ applause ] >> governor john kasich. thank you so much. great to see you. good luck. coming up, he is up big in the latest polling here. who does donald trump view as

his fiercest competition? the republican candidate for president joins us in just a minute. and chris matthews will join us as well. bernie sanders secret weapon on the campaign trail. we'll profile jane sanders who takes a slightly different approach than hillary clinton's husband. >> the hotter this election gets, the more i wish i were just a former president and just for a few months not the spouse of the next one. because, you know, i have to be careful what i say. ♪ ♪ i got some wild, wild nights

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ask your doctor about once-weekly trulicity. and click to activate your within. with us now the host of msnbc's "hard ball," chris matthews and stewart stevens. chris, what are you looking at right now? >> is this a tobacco auction right here? that thes fast. i'm looking at the fact that the republican party will once again

go outside of politics for a candidate. at least tonight. they did it in '52. they did it with reagan who made his name as a talk show host. it's not new. the tradition of for the republican party to go outside of politics, it goes back to grant, jack ri taylor, william henry harrison and i think they will do it again tonight. >> you think it's going to be a big night for donald trump? >> outside of politics. it's not extraordinary for the republican party to do that. >> stuart, what are you looking at tonight? >> i think it will be amazing, a socialist who has been a member of the democratic party less than a year will win tonight. >> right. >> and a republican someone who has never voted in a republican primary is going to win the republican primary. >> what does that say about voters' distrust with sort of the old order? >> i think it shows that those two guys run the best campaigns here to be honest. because i think all of those voters were available to other candidates, those candidates just didn't go out and get it.

>> mark halperin, i have to say there have been moments in this campaign that were eye openers. one of the moments that made the establishment, the media establishment, the political establishment, washington stop and gasp was a bloomberg focus group poll way back that you did in new hampshire when everybody was just saying that anybody supporting trump had mental deficiencies and you had a focus group of maybe 12 people, they were working class, new hampshire voters, and they eloquently expressed why they were going to say the hell with the republican party, the hell with the democratic party and support trump. >> the person in that focus group that i think explains the most or at least a lot about what's going on is she said -- working class woman from new hampshire she said, i like trump, he's just like us. i asked her afterwards if she had a skyscraper on fifth avenue named after her that she lived in. she said, no, but the resonance

that he has with people, he is from queens, he's a billionaire but he is totally accessible to them in his aspirations for the country and no one has matched that. no other republican in the field that is matched it at the scale trump has so far. >> it seems that the field, mika, is in some ways stronger than expected, but in -- >> really strong. >> -- this area off the cuff other than let's say john kasich. >> right. >> i mean, there are a lot of guys that look pre programmed and packaged and created by focus groups. >> well, you had even marco rubio, you know, who knows if it was just completely disconnected -- >> there is a spontaneous lad. >> or if it got into his head but he repeated a line yesterday in his speech and you could see him stop himself going, oh, here i go again. did you see that? >> that's the opposite of spontaneity. that's a pre recorded announcement. >> by the way, when we were watching trump last night and thinking about the rubio problem from the debate.

>> yeah. >> donald trump goes up, we're actually interviewing him back stage and they're going, 30 seconds, mr. trump and he goes, so, anyway, and he's talking to us and they go 15 seconds and they're drag to drag him out there and there's a crowd of 5,000 people. they literally have to drag him out and he goes, oh, hey, and he goes up, he's got notes he doesn't look at them once, he talks for 45 minutes, mesmerizes the entire crowd. when you put that on a split screen next to marco rubio. >> yeah. >> or other people. >> or hillary. >> or hillary. >> yeah. >> exactly. >> totally -- >> hard to beat that. >> this is him right before going on stage, jab ring, talking. >> spontaneity. >> literally walks out in the crowd and completely just -- >> lights are on, somebody is home. >> my theory of trump has been he is someone who is the guy in high school who is fun to hang out with, as long as he's having fun you're having fun and when this campaign will start to i

think turn against trump is when he's not having fun. it's up to the other campaigns to not make sure that -- >> do you remember when they asked hillary why did you go to his wedding? and she said because he's fun. which is ironic coming from hillary when people are saying she's running a joyless campaign. >> she has to hang out with donald trump to have fun. >> it's about joy. >> but it's the other campaigns' responsibility and mission to make life less fun for donald trump in the weeks ahead. >> go ahead. >> i was going to say one other thing, after iowa when some people were surprised that donald trump finished in second place the question was can he take a punch, is he going to crawl into a hole, is he going to get angry and start berating people. he didn't do it. he did the opposite. >> he's always unpredictable. >> chris, i was very critical of donald trump two days after iowa beating the hell out of ted cruz and i said, why is he doing it? this is stupid. he should focus on other people. he basically buried ted cruz's

momentum. say what you will, he finished ted cruz's momentum off after iowa and within two days everybody was saying, cruz lied about ben carson. >> yeah. well, bread and circuses, remember, we want two leaders, we want the stuff we want from them and we want fun, we want some joy. the two things that bernie sanders and donald trump have in common is focus. you know why they're doing it, this is what they believe in, and joy. there's no joy in the hillary clinton campaign. there's none. there's no joy in many of these campaigns. they're minimally nothing. there's nothing. i can't even say you get anything -- >> there's no joy in marco's campaign. >> you need a person there first. >> you're talking about how they clinch up and don't let reporters get close to them, everything is sort of very safe and protected. >> orlando, the hall of presidents where the statues -- that's him already. just go right down there, take him down there now. >> who is that? >> rubio. just deliver him. put him down -- >> rubio? >> rubio and just let him speak.

>> i think you said robio. >> that was a freudian slip. >> that's not the important thought. the important thought was that the guy is a recording. >> robio. >> that's a good line. >> did you just make that up? >> i think she just caught it. >> i thought you said robio as a freudian slip. >> coined? >> that and swirm i wishes. we're good. in light of where you began we have two outsiders on the cass.of taking new hampshire, you hear bloomberg saying he is going to make a decision in march as to whether he will jump in and also the clinton campaign talk being a whole new strategy. so a lot still to come ahead, mark halperin, ten seconds or less. >> hillary clinton has to pick up the pieces tonight after a loss and maybe a very big loss and michael bloomberg has to decide with a deadline whether there is an opening for a third party or independent candidate to run. very hard to win -- >> stuart, what's bloomberg's opening right now? >> his only opening is to have two people that the country believes they really do not want

as president. >> if you had trump and sanders you would have two people who you could make a case did not represent the majority of the country. it's very, very hard. i mean, it's never been done before, but it would be great fun to watch. >> none of that has so far. >> ralph nader. >> you coined a term today, sir. we'll see you on hard ball. a reminder we will be back here tomorrow for a special extended edition of "morning joe" as we break down all the results. while we are at it why don't we come back this afternoon and have a drink at the bar. what do you think? >> that's tomorrow. is it today or tomorrow? >> today. >> thank you guys. we will be here from 3:00 to 5:00 today. >> great. >> you will be back tonight, right? >> yes. >> we will be back tonight and then here tomorrow morning. >> still ahead this morning republican presidential candidate carly fiorina -- it's fun. we love it. >> but first donald trump just moments away. "morning joe" is coming right

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kasich. >> how would you if you were standing up here like i am how would you thank everyone? how could you possibly say thanks? >> win. this is sort of our final lovefest, all right? now tomorrow will be an even better one. >> donald is the front runner in new hampshire. >> we are here in new hampshire competing for the votes and at this point it's a turn out game. >> this is the political christmas eve in america. >> i will ask you respectfully to please consider giving me the chance to do this job for you. >> we are no longer accepting establishment politics or establishment economics. that we want this country to move forward in a different direction. thank you all very much. and we are off to the races. welcome back to "morning joe." it's the top of the hour. election day here in new hampshire. with us now on set nbc news chief foreign affairs dress pond

ent and host of andrea mitchell reports, andrea mitchell. >> the managing editors of bloomberg politics mark halperin and john heilemann and we are awaiting donald trump. >> let's talk democrats first. mark halperin, a lot of activity, a lot of chatter on the democratic side as it pertains to hillary clinton. first of all andrea and i were just talking about this off camera, both of us sort of surprised at the timing of the fbi's announcement yesterday that the e-mail investigation was moving forward. we knew it was, but they had just denied it or didn't respond to it. they could have light that lie but they didn't. that's the first thing. >> it wasn't really an announcement, though. >> it was a confirmation. >> right. >> that the investigation is moving forward. after they had basically said we have no information for you a couple weeks ago. the timing the day before the new hampshire primary was interesting to say the least. >> and then the second thing, a lot of chatter about the clinton

campaign disappointed, bill clinton disappointed in how things are going and the possibility of blowing up the campaign and bringing in new people. >> the clintons are having a bad week and the fbi thing is just part of t look, they are romantic about new hampshire and they are -- they understand the symb symbolism, new hampshire has been their state, so extraordinarily good to them and tonight will not be a good night for her. >> do we know that for sure? >> i think any loss is a problem for her, even if somehow it's narrow and my gut is it's not going to be that narrow. any loss in new hampshire is a loss for them that they'll feel in the environment of not just the fbi investigation, but sanders' fundraising, sanders' message discipline and continues to be unequal treatment between clinton and sanders that frustrates them. >> this is nostalgic for me because i first met mark halperin when there were a handful of us in 1992 covering bill clinton in new hampshire. it was every scandal on top of scandal. >> right. >> the draft controversy.

>> the draft. >> jennifer flowers. and then he spun his second place, you know, win into a victory and the come back kid. i think they will spin a single digit result if it were to -- >> they will try. >> they will try to spin that into a victory, but i think as mark points out that we've been covering the clintons for years and years, as romantic they may be about new hampshire which has been good to both clintons this is a tough thing to accept. you can see it all over their faces yesterday. >> if she can narrow the gap that will be an achievement. we must keep reminding everybody she was 40 points ahead her when this race started nine months ago and this is a state that is clinton country, always has been clinton country, you know, new hampshire iets have known -- to the extent they have known anything about bernie sanders they have known for a long time and yet he has methodically sanders narrowed the gap and then passed her. >> look at this. this is about as cute as it

gets. is that mark halperin? >> this is mark halperin with bill clinton. >> neither of us has changed a bit. >> in new hampshire in 1992. >> 1992 when it was a daily occurrence that andrea was there with me to see bill clinton stop and talk to the press about scandals and controversies that would have destroyed any other candidate and he walked right through it into second place as the come back kid. >> you have to keep reminding people that the argument that somehow sanders was for dane to win her because he is from vermont is not an accurate argument. the clintons have deep, deep roots here, she was better known in this state six months ago, she won the new hampshire primary eight years ago. this is a state that should have been favorable ground for hillary clinton, even if she was running against a new hampshire senator. >> the whole women's delegation -- >> by the way, the next argument, john, is that if hillary clinton finishes close, closer that she wanted to be in iowa and loses in new hampshire

she moves on to south carolina successfully because there are more minority voters and she can put these two behind. do you subscribe to that logic that these could be outliers for her as she moves forward? >> they could be. as a snapshot of today she's strong in those states but sanders will start raising tens of millions of dollars more, he's going to get more publicity than he has ever gotten and he has got a message that will appeal to a lot of voters. >> look at this. >> let's go ahead, john heilemann is getting out of the jump seat and, john heilemann, gives up his chair to donald trump. >> donald, good to see you. >> sit down, joe. sit down. >> have a seat right here. >> i yield my chair. i yield my chair to you. >> miking him up. >> so obviously we were telling people about the event last night, 4,000 to 5,000 people in a snowstorm and i'm just wondering how you're feeling this morning. iowa obviously all the polls had you away. >> a little bit. >> polls have you ahead here

shoo i thought i won iowa. >> well, you actually hit your vote total that you expected to get cruz just got more people out. >> how did he do that? how did he get those extra votes? >> how are you feeling this morning? >> i feel good. we had a great night and it was an amazing event in a snowstorm, in a blizzard so i feel very good. >> i saw a "new york times" article that talked about a town hall meeting you had i think in merry mack and the reporter was saying that actually you were -- you were very at ease in that smaller group and actually questioned why you didn't do that more in new hampshire. >> well, the problem is we call the event and i like to do those events and then, you know, 2,000 people show up so they're not working and then we have thousands of people outside and we have to tell them, i'm sorry, you have to go home we only have room for 40. i like those events, i did a couple of them and i love them, but so many people come that it's sort of not right. mark understands that because he has seen it. >> so we're hearing a lot about

potential upheaval tonight with outsiders perhaps taking new hampshire. you and bernie sanders. we hear about upheaval in the clinton campaign, maybe them changing strategy, needing to do that. even potential that by march michael bloomberg might jump into the race. what do you make of all that? >> well, he is a friend of mine, he hopes he jumps in because i love the competition. i would love to see michael in the race actually. i think he should do it. in fact, i think i will call him later and say do it. >> do you think he would be a good candidate? >> i think he's good. he's different. >> was it a good mayor. >> he was a good mayor, he had a rough last four years. i think he would have been better if he didn't take the third term. he fought like hell -- he was term limited. >> i agree with that. >> spent a lot of money on doing a lot of things. he got a third term and then there was a snowstorm, it was a disaster and i think he would have been a lot better if he didn't take the third term. >> you're talking about him spending a lot of money, you haven't spent a lot of money. one of the critiques i hear about your campaign is that

you've got to improve your ground game moving forward. are you going to invest a lot of your money. >> yeah. >> since you are not taking other people into building ground games in south carolina. >> yeah. >> across the deep south and some of the other key states. >> i'm $45 million under budget. by this time i thought i would spend -- what have i spent, 12 or 16 and most of its paying myself back for my airplane. i haven't had to do a lot of advertising. i don't know if i'm a believer in polls or not but i go by the polls and i do a lot of television and you can't do that much television in the top of it you have an ad and more television and an ad. people would say, i can't watch this guy anymore. so i'm way -- i mean, i'm at least $45 million under where i thought i'd be at this point. >> you think you might invest that in your ground game. >> i might. we will see. i've invested a lot of money. one of the reasons i've done commercials and they are actually positive commercials, is because i feel guilty. i feel guilty that i didn't do any commercials and we made a commercial, it was a good commercial and put it on, and i also don't want to take a chance. i don't want to be like a wise

guy and think i don't of to do this. we put on a commercial, it's a good commercial. yeah, we're going to -- you know, we have a big -- a big, big group of people in south carolina tomorrow, tremendous amounts of people showing up. so, look, it's about make america great again. very simple thing. just make america great again. you saw it last night, a lot of people saw it last night and that's what we're going to do. >> willie geist. >> i don't know, but i like them. >> yeah, he has a sign he wants to give you. >> does he? oh, wow. >> donald, if in public at least you are not the most reflective or sentimental person i know. >> in private. >> perhaps in private you are. but if you think about yourself a year ago before you made the decision to get into the race, you were thinking about your businesses and perhaps the new season of the apprentice. could you have ever in your wildest dreams imagine you sitting here on this day, primary day in new hampshire, as the favorite to win this state? >> well, i will tell you first of all i know this state very

well because i've been here long before politics, i have many friends that live here and i'm up here and it's an incredible state and i know the pluses and minuses, the minuses they have a tremendous heroin drug problem and i'm going to stop it. i'm going to stop it so fast, even beyond the wall, long before the wall goes up i'm going to stop that. the first question i get, when you think of new hampshire you don't think of that, but it's the first question i get all the time, the heroin, the drug problem. okay. i would say, hey, look, you know, i like to win and i've won over my life, i mean, that's what i do, i win. i didn't go in it to lose, but if you would have told me that like a national poll just came up you probably saw it, i think it was an nbc poll where i'm like 15 points up nationally and we are up quite a bit here, but the people have to go out and vote, you know, you see rallies like that where you have 4,000 or 5,000 people in a blizzard and then you still have to tell them -- that's why i told them last night, no matter how you're feeling you have to go out and vote. >> have you been surprised at how well you've done? when you stop there on june 16th

did you think you would be the favorite? >> i've given up a lot. >> but are you surprised? >> he's not. >> no, not that surprised. >> he finally got him to tell the truth. you can tell he's not a southern politician because that's a false modesty. i'll tell you what -- i can't believe -- >> i can't believe how much you all love me. >> no, i'm not surprised. >> willie, i had to give up "the apprentice" because steve burke came up to see me and wanted to renew two seasons, you give up prime time television, a lot of deals, i don't do deals anymore, this is all i'm doing, i'm lucky my children are very good and running the company and are going to do great. you give up a lot. when you give up a prime time television show, it sounds trivial, it's a lot to give up. >> it is. andrea mitchell. >> let me ask you about mike bloomberg, you say he was a good mayor for the first two terms, he says if he gets in its because he's disappointed in the

conversation in both parties. clearly he would hurt the democrats more than the republicans, he is pro, you know, gun control, he's in favor of abortion rights on all the social issues. so he would really cut into -- >> he would be coming in to stop you. >> but he would -- he could end up electing you if you were the nominee. >> i did him a big favor, he had a horrible project that was a total mess, it was under construction for 25 years at least and he couldn't get it built, no matter what they did they couldn't get it built. i took it over and got it built in less than a year, this is last term, i said i'm going to get it open for you before you leave and i got it open in october and he left in january. >> what was the project? >> the big project called ferry point in the bronx. it was a disaster. probably under construction for 30 years and i got it done. i really got -- i -- >> so let me ask you -- >> so i did him a big favor. >> i always ask leadership questions, this is a good leadership question to ask, how did you get it done? >> because i know how to build,

i know how to get it done. the thing i do best is build. when you have an infrastructure of a country like ours that is absolutely decaying and rotting and falling apart and, by the way, we're spending $5 trillion in the middle east instead of doing what we're supposed to be doing, we have to knock the hell out of isis but we have to get back to rebuildings our country. look at our railways, bridges, tunnels. >> have we wasted too much money fighting wars. >> i don't mind fighting but you have to win and we don't win wars we just fight, it's like a big -- like you're vomiting, just fight, fight, fight. we don't win anything. i mean, if you're going to fight you win and you get back to rebuilding the country. we don't win. it's really a terrible thing. our country used to win all the time. we don't win at all anymore. >> given that you're poised to win this primary, given your standing in the national polls, given the trouble hillary clinton is having are you the favorite to be the next president of the united states right now? >> i just don't know, mark, i can't answer that question.

i'm just -- i go day by day and i work hard and i'm doing a lot of stops, even today i'm doing five or six stops. i think we're doing well. i mean, i see the response. you saw the response last night. i mean, that's typical. i see the response and we get by far the biggest crowds, far bigger than bernie, bernie doesn't get anywhere near where we get. he gets the second biggest crowds, bigger than any other republican and i see the response and the response has been amazing. >> you talk about trade and obviously immigration. what other issues that you're talking about do you think are resonating with voters? your tax plan, for instance? >> i think healthcare is big, tax plan. the tax plan is a massive plan that will cut taxes for everybody but people don't care as much about that as some things. what they really care about is safety and they really care about the board, they talk about the border, they love the border, they love the wall. last night i said who is going to pay for the ball the whole crowd goes crazy and says mexico

although the head of mexico said no way and i said now the wall just got taller. >> when i first announced it was trade with china and others that are ripping you us off like you wouldn't believe and we can do easily, but it was trade and it was, you know, the border. after paris, paris had a big impact, then it became really security for the country. an amazing difference, i switched. and the polls actually switched, the polls had me number one by far on that issue because i think of my stance on the border. really now i think it's security more than anything else. >> what do you make of the fact that some people, some voters say they can't decide between donald trump and bernie sanders. what is the common thread here? >> i can understand it in a certain way. we have one thing strongly in common the difference is he can't do anything about it, i can. trade. he knows we're being ripped off by every country we do business with because we have people that are very, very stupid or very, very political that are negotiating our trade deals. in many cases they're political

hacks. he knows that and i know that. the difference is i will take our trade deals and make them incredible for us. he can't do anything about it because it's not his thing. he will never be able to do that. >> let me ask you about something that did happen last night because people have criticized the tone of this campaign. what was going through your mind when that woman shouted a word out and you went with it and sort of -- >> i didn't -- we were all just having fun. it was a great moment, i got a standing ovation, the place went wild. somebody said mixed cheers. let me tell you the place went wild. >> i saw that. >> standing ovation. you're talking about close to 5,000 people standing ovation, went totally wild and all i was doing is repeating because people couldn't hear it so i was doing everybody a favor. does that make sense? >> you think on your feet so well. >> the world of politically correct. >> i'm scared to do this. we've been doing with all the candidates word association before we go. >> are you sure you want to do that after last night? >> yes, you do.

>> one word, donald. >> or a phrase. >> okay. >> jeb bush. >> loser. >> okay. what a coincidence. >> so funny you should say that. marco rubio. >> confused. >> ted cruz. >> i was going to say nasty. he's not really nasty, he has been really nice, he goes on and off. i'll say nasty. >> nasty. okay. >> hillary clinton. >> >> she went to your wedding. >> she did. she did. she did. in a certain way evil. in a certain way evil. >> whoa. bill clinton. >> intelligent. >> i mean, we should just stop there. i'm good. >> i'm interested in all the words that he edited out. >> there was a lot of editing.

>> i never like that stuff. >> one more. donald trump. >> brilliant. >> that one was easy. >> no. no. putin said trump is brilliant, right, and the republicans wanted me to disavow his statement he's a horrible person and all. i said i'm not going to disavow that statement. why would i ever disavow that statement. no, i'm only -- nice guy. i would say nice person, i'm a nice person. >> all right. donald trump. >> a lot nicer than people think. >> i don't know if hillary clinton would agree with that in morning. >> i know some people who do. donald trump, thank you. an drae mitchell threw as well. still ahead on "morning joe." i do want to follow up here for each of you and a similar line of questioning. senator sanders your wife jane shares an office in your campaign head quarters in burlington, we've seen the pictures, the desks right next to each other would she have a desk close by in the west wing. >> given the fact that she is a lot smarter than me, yes, she

would. we're going to look at one of the driving forces behind bernie sanders. how his wife jane is having a big impact on the presidential race. but first from the other side of the white house race, republican contender carly fiorina joins the conversation. you're watching "morning joe." we will be right back. ♪ ♪ ♪ for your retirement, you want to celebrate the little things, because they're big to you. and that is why you invest. the best returns aren't just measured in dollars. td ameritrade®. theand to help you accelerate,. we've created a new company... one totally focused on what's next for your business.

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we will close this morning with word association. >> like this. >> trump, just one word. >> loser. >> oh, my god. oh, my god. >> christie -- okay. next one. christie. >> christie. >> yeah. >> great guy. >> okay. >> right now. >> rubio. rubio. >> work in progress. >> hillary.

>> she can be beat. so we've been doing with all the candidates word association before we go, this is making me very nervous. >> are you sure you want to do that after last night? >> yes, you do. >> one word, do believe. >> or a phrase. others have used phrases. >> jeb bush. >> loser. >> okay. >> what a coincidence. >> so funny you should say that. marco rubio. >> confused. >> ted cruz. >> i was going to say nasty, he's not really nasty. i mean, he has been very nice. he goes on and off. i'll say nasty. >> nasty. okay. >> stick with it. >> hillary clinton. >> she went to your wedding. >> she did. she did. she did. in a certain way evil. in a certain way evil. >> whoa. bill clinton.

>> intelligent. >> i mean, we should just stop there. i'm good. i'm good. ♪ don't let a cracked windshield ruin your plans. trust safelite. with safelite's exclusive "on my way text" you'll know exactly when we'll be there. giving you more time for what matters most. (team sing) ♪safelite repair, safelite replace.♪

i think we should've taken a tarzan know where tarzan go! tarzan does not know where tarzan go. hey, excuse me, do you know where the waterfall is? waterfall? no, me tarzan, king of jungle. why don't you want to just ask somebody? if you're a couple, you fight over directions. it's what you do. if you want to save fifteen percent or more on car insurance, you switch to geico. oh ohhhhh it's what you do. ohhhhhh! do you have to do that right in my ear? text mom. i'll be right back. be good. boys have been really good today. send. let's get mark his own cell phone. nice. send.

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i have battled breast cancer, i have buried a child, i

have read my bible. i know the value of life. every person has god given gifts. all of us actually have far more potential than we realize. we will win this fight, but it is a fight, so we need a fearless fighter in the white house not just to win this election but to restore the character of our nation. join with me. fight with me. vote for me. it's time to take our country back. what a great ad. >> that ad ran here in new hampshire during the super bowl sunday and republican presidential candidate carly fiorina joins us now. "the washington post" robert costa is back with us as well. good to have you all on board along with emergenmark al priso willie. >> i don't want to look back, i want to look forward but i do feel like after showing a poll that shows you ahead the most recent poll of people that were on the debate stage and the fact that you beat people in iowa that were on the debate stage -- >> and have a delegate like

somebody else on the debate stage. the game is rigged. the system is fixed. >> how devastating do you think that is to your momentum and who was trying to stop you from getting on the stage? >> first of all, as i've said many times this is about much more than me. this is about the first in the nation primary and the voters of new hampshire. you see some folks in new york city and washington, d.c. got together and said we're going to decide who you hear from in new hampshire. it's the new hampshire voters' job to vet candidates and winnow the field. all this polling madness started because we said, there are too many candidates. guess what? there used to be 16 of us and there are 8 and i've beaten a couple guys on that stage already. why didn't they want me on the stage? i wonder why? >> do you know who didn't. >> i think there are folks in the system that didn't want me on the stage because i'm the best debater on the stage. i'm running to take our country

back. >> was rnc lobbied to keep you on the stage? >> absolutely. >> do you know if it was the governors that lobbied them? >> well, i don't know, but let me just say i've beaten a couple of these governors and i'm tied with another governor. if you don't want to face me on the debate stage, maybe that's what you do. but new york city and washington, d.c. have too much decision-making power. it's not just about the debate. this is what i'm saying to the people of new hampshire and what i've been saying since may. we have to take our country back. we have too much power and money and decision-making concentrated in the hands of too few. in new york city and washington, d.c. the system isn't working for us anymore. we're being told as voters to sit down and be quiet about all kinds of things, we're being asked to settle for a system of government and politics that doesn't work for us anymore. we're being asked to settle for a nation that is performing so below our potential, record numbers of men out of men out of work, record numbers of women in poverty. new hampshire have heard

politicians come through here cycle after cycle promising the same things for 30 years and nothing really challenges. it's time to put a leader in the oval office who is not part of the system who will challenge the system. >> and the frustrating thing is while the voters of new hampshire decide the voters of new hampshire watch the debate and there were pivotal moments on the debate stage, especially at the last one. i guess in terms of experience and accomplishments who would you remove from that debate stage and put yourself in their place? >> i'm not talking about removing anybody. i will debate anybody anytime. there are only eight candidates left. coming out of new hampshire there will be even fewer and i will be standing. i'm going all the way to cleveland. we have organization all over this country. we've gotten on the ballot already in more states than many of the governors have. i'm not going to sit down and be quiet and i'm not going to quit fighting because we have to take our country back. and the people of new hampshire have lifted me from 17 out of 16 which is where i started, less than 4% of voters had ever heard

of me, the pollsters wouldn't ask my name, the pundits wrote me off. here we are a bunch of governors and senators have already gotten out of this race, i've already beaten a bunch of governors as well as former iowa caucuses winners, here i am rising in the polls i'm not going to sit down and be quiet. >> if you go to a hillary clinton event the historic nature of her candidacy is everywhere, it's in the air implicitlily or explicitly. figure to one of your rallies i don't hear that from you. is that a decision that you've made that this is not going to be about your gender but about you as a person and about your choices? >> well, hillary clinton has to remind people that she's a woman all the time because she doesn't have a track record of accomplishment. because she's lied to the american people. so the best argument she has is vote for me i'm a woman. look, i'm very proud to be a woman but i'm never going to ask people to vote for me because of my gender. i'm asking people to vote for me because i'm the most qualified candidate to win this job. people know i'll whoop hillary

clinton on the debate stage. i have more foreign policy experience, more economic experience, i understand bureaucracies, i understand technology and i have spent my entire life challenging the system, producing results, solving festering problems and leading. that's how you go from a secretary to a ceo in the most relentlessly competitive industry in the world. that's what i do. >> mark. >> you talked about your concern about being denied access to being on the debate stage. how do you feel about the system overall and the way we pick presidents? >> well, i think when we will leave it up to voters it's a great system, but you see all along the saebment, the media establishment and the political establishment has intervened. every step of the way. the media and the political establishment has said, well, you can't possibly handle this many candidates so we're going to decide who is up and who is down. why didn't they just draw randomly and put everybody on the debate stage. here we are now, people can handle eight candidates, people

can handle a lot of debates. they're pretty discerning voters, but the media establishment and political establishment said, no, you can't handle this so we're going to decide for you. >> i don't understand why they didn't from the very beginning if you have 16 candidates draw randomly, split them up into two groups, group one gets an hour 15 minutes with a 15 minute break and then the other eight get another. i mean -- >> because you see, joe, you do understand. >> it's insanity to base this on national polls that we all say all along mean absolutely nothing. >> but you do understand. you see, the establishment decided we think these guys have a chance and these folks don't. that's the point. forget me for a moment. this is an affront to the voters of this state. it is the new hampshire primary voters' job to vet candidates and winnow the field. it is not the rnc's job, it is not abc or the media

establishment's job. it's the voters' job. basically new york and washington, d.c. said, never mind, your primary doesn't count, votes and delegates don't count, we're going to decide. it's symptomatic of what's going on in this country now. >> carly fiorina, thank you very much. thank you, everyone. good to have you. coming up, they met the day before he was elected mayor of burlington, vermont, and she's been with him ever since. a look at jane sanders on the campaign trail and off. "morning joe" live from manchester is back in a moment. i think it landed last tuesday. one second it's there. then, woosh, it's gone. i swear i saw it swallow seven people. seven. i just wish one of those people could have been mrs. johnson. [dog bark] trust me, we're dealing with a higher intelligence here. ♪

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introduce hillary. sometimes when i'm on a stage like this i wish we weren't married then i could say what i really think. what? okay. >> that was bill clinton who lately has been on the attack in the heat of the new hampshire primary. this year there's another rising spouse for the democrats. >> jane sanders who has always blazed her own trail, whether it was for a campaign or otherwise. take a look. >> in a year of political heavy weights there may be no better salesman than a spouse. >> i believe she's the best qualified person for this moment in history that i've ever had a chance to vote for. >> and few have the wattage and home spun appeal of bill clinton. >> secretary clinton has bill, but i have a more potent force, my wife jane. >> but jane sanders has become a force all her own on the campaign trail and even on tv. >> i can't believe how many

people are here. >> it's a revolution, jane. >> from the flatbed of a truck at 5:00 a.m. in the morning after the iowa caucuses. >> honestly, jane and i -- [ applause ] >> to campaigning in the snow, she's been on the trail seemingly wherever bernie goes. >> you just heard the brains in the family. >> they grew up only blocks away from each other in brooklyn. >> we played stick ball every day or dodgeball and we hung out on the stoop. >> she worked as a bank teller, raised three kids and a self-avowed dead head dreamed of vermont. >> i went to woodstock. >> okay. well, that's incredible. >> she finally intersected with bernie sanders in burlington on the eve of his election as mayor back in 1981. together they worked to improve the city and the lives of children, however they could. >> we started a youth office which started after after school program for kids, started a child care center. she led that effort. >> she had been a force -- how many kids did you have?

>> 13. >> over time. >> she got me thinking a whole lot about the needs of children and youth. >> but she didn't stop there. she became the provost of goddard college. in 2004 she became president of burlington college and at 50 went back to school. >> they said you need a ph.d.. you need to continue to do this work. let us -- let us help you get that. so i went back and got my ph.d. at 50. >> she was her husband's chief of staff and policy adviser in congress working a reported 70 hours a week and helping write some 50 pieces of legislation. but even jane sanders was unconvinced that the national stage was the right one for her husband. >> ego and arrogance is not bernie's go-to place. i mean, his thing is service. he says i don't want to do it unless you're 100% there and over walks a veteran and he says, i don't mean to interrupt, i just wanted to tell you how much i support you and i want to thank you. you got me my benefits after 30

years. i will do anything that i can if you run for president because we need you. so i got up, i gave the guy a hug, tears in my eyes and i just said, i give up. you have to do it, i guess. >> from l.a. to boston, des moines to maine this cycle jane sanders has been a mainstay on the trail, reviewing campaign ads and helping out with the debate prep. >> this is bernie's wife. >> thank you for coming. >> and now nobody frames the contrast in the presidential race better than she can. >> i'm a progressive who likes to get things done and i will get into that white house, i don't need a tour. >> she's actually minimizing the message saying, well, we can only do this much and bernie says we can do that much. what people don't understand is that's what he's always done, he's laid out a vision that was a lot more progressive and a lot more bold than people thought could be accomplished and then he's accomplished it. >> by the way, jane once told

the "washington post" that when bernie was elected he told her, quote, bet you never thought you would be married to a congressman and she answered, bet you never thought you would be married to a provost. so that is jane sanders. pretty cool lady with a background and you get a sense that they really connect with people's problems. she has lived some of those problems herself, raising three kids on a very tight budget and working some real life jobs. >> no doubt about it. let's bring in now nbc news national correspondent peter alexander, we have our political panel here. peter, what are you looking at today? >> i think what struck me in the last matter of days is just sort of the changing demeanor of these candidates. before the debate donald trump i think was tight, was tense, you guys were there last night, that was as loose and as confident -- this is a guy who is confident often -- this is by far as loose and confident. >> he was at the top of his game. >> with marco rubio experience only a couple days ago, remember, marco rubio was saying things like we are not going to

be negative, i'm not going to engage in those things now he is hitting chris christie on things like planned parenthood. and john kasich and jeb bush, two guys that for a while were begging to get on television, now we're talking every camera and everyone is chasing them all over the place. the change in mood over the last several days is hugely dramatic. >> i've said about costa that kasich has a hot hand but actually kasich, bush and trump all seem to be at the top of their games right now, the best they've been so far in the campaign. i don't know if it translates into votes but most people out on the trail are saying that. >> there is a real appreciation for bush and you see it after he embraced his own last name. there is a sense that now that he is a bush and proud of being a bush people are coming around to him, he's more comfortable in espousing his hawkish views. one of the big stories coming out of here, there's so much talk about the race in the second tier. if trump comes out of here with a historic large victory, he storms into south carolina, the deep south comes up march 1st

for super tuesday, you are looking at someone possibly rolling towards the nomination because of new hampshire. >> somebody said to me last night that second is the new first in the republican side. >> right. >> which completely overlooks the fact that it's a foregone conclusion now that donald trump real estate mogul, reality tv show star is on the brink of winning this new hampshire primary and rolling south. now, the second place will be important because if you finished sixth you have a tough story to tell coming out of here, if you're second you have some momentum to be the anti-trump. >> we never know because of iowa, we never know what's going to happen because of what happened here eight years ago with barack obama and hillary clinton. we will wait. i will say this, though, just a week ago donald trump was being called a loser by everybody in the media. he was being ridiculed, he was having hammered, he was being kicked around and everybody said let's see how he responds. ladies and gentlemen, for about the 15th time reports of donald trump's political death have been greatly exaggerated and a

win here tonight, mike, accelerates him to a state, south carolina, that's always been home territory for him. >> off of what rob had just pointed out, a big win here tonight could accelerate him to an early ending to that side of the aisle in terms of who does get the nomination. this is a sophisticated electorate here in new hampshire, always has been and there's one common theme involved in bush, kasich and donald trump and their campaigns and their appearances. they all now appear to be having a good time. >> yes. >> peter. >> what i was going to say that strikes me is the fact that one thing that makes new hampshire so much fun is there are a lot of people in the state that haven't even made up their mind on which side of the aisle they're voting for tonight. as one person said to john kasich yesterday, they said, hey, you know, governor, i've seen you five times he said do i have your vote? the person said it's between you and bernie sanders. only in new hampshire does that potential exist. so i was trying to get a sense

of where people go. you like the shiny object, do you want to be -- they want to be a part of a winner, but what race. >> mika, we've been asking themselves all morning on what they thought they're going to see tonight. what are you going to see tonight? >> in terms of outcome. >> yeah, what do you think? >> bernie and trump will take new hampshire and i just absolutely have no clue what happens to second, third, fourth, fifth and sixth place. i feel it will cluster together. >> donald trump will be the biggest audience he has ever had tonight absent the debate when he speaks this morning. >> if he wins. >> every candidate who has come through here you say how do you do tonight if it's not donald trump they say i have no idea, i will either be second or sixth. i don't know. >> your prediction. >> i have absolutely no idea. obviously if you look at the polling numbers, if you look at the crowds trump wins, sanders wins. i will say this, though, if trump does not win, if sanders does not win, after iowa and after that experience there will

be a lot of pollsters that will be out of business because if trump -- i'm serious, if trump does not win tonight then polls in 2016 don't mean a thing anymore. >> yep. peter, thank you very much. >> peter, thanks. >> up next we will go live to a polling place with voting under way right now in new hampshire. keep it right here on "morning joe." whether you're out on the town... or in for the night... at&t helps keep everyone connected. right now at at&t, buy the samsung galaxy s6 and get one free. buy one get one free. no matter how you hang out, share every minute of it. right now at at&t, buy the samsung galaxy s6 and get one free. you've finally earned enough on your airline credit card. now you just book a seat, right?

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with us now we've got nbc chus capitol hill correspondent kelly o'donnell, she's live in manchester, new hampshire. you're awaiting chris christie this morning. what's it looking like out there? >> well, joe, we are at the webster school on elm street, a polling place, and it has also been a place where volunteers from here in new hampshire, some came in from new jersey, are gathered here to await the governor arriving and also there are supporters of other campaigns here. the actors ted dancen and mary steam burj inn are in that pack, they're hillary supporters, but the christie team has picked this as a spot knowing the governor will be here to meet voters as they're going in, to cast their the ballots and drum up support so they have been loud. there may be a correlation to how cold they are and how loud they've been. they got here about 7:30 this

morning, it is bitterly cold out here this morning and they are trying to heat things up to get some attention and to get voters excited. it's been a busy polling place, there is also a ton of other media here as you would expect. it is the day in new hampshire, all the work it comes down to today. so the volunteers are out in force. joe. >> nbc's kelly o'donnell, thank you so much. stay warm. boy, this is going to be a big day. >> final thoughts, what did we learn today, mike? >> the magic of this primary occurs today as people have thought about this, they're probably not telling pollsters the absolute truth when they say they are undecided, i think they've been decided for a while and now they vote. >> bob. we've been watching for a year in both parties this wave of populism, a desire for an outsider and i think it culminates today, new hampshire is coming out and saying we want something fresh regardless of your party. >> history happens tonight in new hampshire. >> it does. and if the polls are right, peter alexander just told me walking offset 75 consecutive

polls have had donald trump in first place in new hampshire, 40 consecutive polls have had bernie sanders in first place in new hampshire. if those numbers hold up it is a pop list earthquake in this state that's going to impact this face moving forward. >> that does it for us this morning, but we will be back here in afternoon at the bar apparently at 3:00 eastern. >> all right. >> to check in on the voting. >> can't wait. it's going to be awesome. come back, everybody. >> do you want to join us? all right. >> thank you, guys. thank you, guys. i've got a fantastic deal for you- gold! with the right pool of investors, there's a lot of money to be made. but first, investors must ask the right questions and use the smartcheck challenge to make the right decisions.

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because they're big to you. and that is why you invest. the best returns aren't just measured in dollars. td ameritrade®. and good morning, everybody, i'm savannah guthrie, we're in manchester, new hampshire, chuck todd and i are reunited again in this tiny state in the northeast corner of our country that is the center of american politics right now. >> we are in the hotel and the armory that is the center of the state that is the center of american politics. >> i know. >> you can't swing a dead cat without running into a candidate. >> it's true. >> a candidate, a strategist, a political tourist who all want to know the same thing, what the heck is g