buddies. >> reporter: thank you very much. a lot of excitement for donald trump who will be arriving here, speaking around 7:00, and of course the event tonight at 8:00. >> all right, kerry sanders in sumter, south carolina, thanks for that. i'm steve kornacki. we have been live in soda city, usa, columbia, south carolina. thanks for joining us. "mtp daily" starts right now. if it's wednesday, it's a shocking headline in our brand-new national poll. coming at a time when this race feels familiar and unpredictable, all at the same time. but are we in just a snapshot of a moment in time or is something much more serious taking place for donald trump? this is "mtp daily," live from las vegas, and it starts right now.

good evening, everybody. we're live outside the new york, new york hotel and skein, because even if we're not in new york, we've got to be near it. 24 hours until i join jose diaz balart until we cohost our own town hall, here in las vegas, just two days before the nevada democratic caucuses. we've got our own big news tonight, though, but there's so much other news that's happening in the race for the white house. another big endorsement for marco rubio that comes formally in about an hour from now. it's south carolina governor, nikki haley. she'll be making it official. it had been rumored for a while, but george w. bush had put the hard sale on her for jeb. it looks like she's going rubio, with just over 60 hours until the voting starts there. this is easily the most turbulent week that has been a turbulent race for the presidency, that we have seen in quite some time. we have some startling new poll numbers for you, that we're releasing right now. i'm talking about a potential

national, is it a collapse of one of the top candidates? we're going to get to that in just a second. as we look at the numbers from our exclusive nbc news/"wall street journal" poll. trump threatens to cruz ad and cruz responding by daring trump to take him to court. >> donald's lawyer sent our campaign a cease and desist letter. if you want to file a lawsuit, challenging this ad, claiming it is defamation, file the lawsuit. >> so hang on to your hats, folks. you are looking right now at live pictures out of walterboro, south carolina, where donald trump is about to hold another campaign rally. and in less than three hours from now, trump takes center stage at our own msnbc town hall in charleston, south carolina. that one's moderated by joe scarborough and mika brzezinski. you will not want to miss that one tonight, either.

but before we get to those wild national numbers, let's set the table for where things stand, where we think things stand right now. the republican candidates are just three days away from the south carolina primary, six days from their nevada caucus. trump is trouncing the competition in both states, according to new cnn polls, of likely voters here in nevada. he claims to have him leading rubio by 26 points. jeb bush has 1%. but be very wary of anybody trying to poll the nevada caucuses. just trust me, folks, it is probably a fool's errand on that front. in south carolina, trump leads by roughly 20 points, according to the new bloomberg politics poll, also being released just now at 5:00 p.m. eastern. cruz, rubio, and kasich are competing for the runner-up spot there. so with those numbers in mind, here we are going with the barn burner national number. and is it a collapse that i mentioned earlier, and is it trump? according to our brand-new nbc/"wall street journal" poll, that was in the field entirely

after saturday night's republican debate, where donald trump went after george bush in ways that he'd never gone after him before, ted cruz now leads trump nationally by two points, among republican primary voters. we've got cruz at 28, trump at 26, rubio, 17, kasich, 11. the big new hampshire bump for him, carson 10, and bush, below 5%, sitting at 4. folks, that's a 15-point swing at the top of the field, in just one month. rubio and kasich are both rising nationally. carson and bush are both holding steady, if you want to call 4% holding steady. but before today, trump held the top spot in every national major poll, including ours, going back to october. well, it now appears that trump has been wounded by saturday's debate performance. it began when trump stood by past comments to impeach president george w. bush over the iraq war and perhaps it spiralled from there. >> so you still think he should be impeached? >> i think it's my turn, isn't it? >> you do whatever you want. you call it whatever you want. i want to tell you, they lied.

there were no weapons of mass destruction. >> okay, okay all right. governor bush? >> we've spent -- we've spent -- [ audience booing ] we've spent -- i only tell the truth, lobbyists. the world -- excuse me! i lost hundreds of friends. the world trade center came down during the reign of bush -- [ audience booing ] he kept us safe? that is not safe. that is not safe, marco. >> let's get some more numbers from our nbc/"wall street journal" poll that should be alarming to the trump campaign. trump trails cruz in a head-to-head match up by 16 points. cruz has doubled his lead over trump since last month. trump trails rubio by 16 points. trump led that matchup by 7 points last month. and we've got some reaction from the campaign trail on these numbers. nbc's hallie jackson just spoke to cruz about his dramatic rise in our national poll. here's a he said. >> you are now beating donald trump nationally according to

our new polling. what is that like for you, when you sort of see these numbers and see what's happening? >> listen, it's tremendously encouraging to be leading the field nationally. i think, as a result -- >> did you ever think you'd be here? >> that was always the plan. that's how you win. you've got to get to first place to win. but i think this is the result of a couple of things. one, i think it's a result of the breadth of support, to be able to win iowa with a massive margin and then place a strong third in new hampshire, demonstrates breadth of support, but i think secondly, people want a real conservative. and you know, if you look at the last debate, the questions, i believe, the voters were asking, number one, who do they trust on the supreme court? who do they know? we've been burned too many times. people don't want to gamble. who do they know will defend the constitution and the bill of rights? and number two, the most important determination the voters are make is who is prepared to be commander in chief. who has the knowledge, the experience, the judgment, the temperament. i have to say, anyone watching

that debate on saturday, the candidates on that stage, not everyone was demonstrating the temperament to be commander in chief. and who has the clarity of vision and the strength and resolve to keep this country safe. and i think that's a big part of the reason our numbers are surging, that people understand that there's to responsibility i'll take more seriously as president than keeping this country safe, securing the borders, defeating isis, killing the terrorists, preventing refugees from coming into country who are isis terrorists. doing everything it needs to keep this country safe. >> let's now dip in. walterboro, south carolina, where donald trump is just getting started. we'll dip in here for a minute. >> you better believe it. we have a trade deficit with mexico of $58 billion. and these characters come up, these politicians that i'm running against, you don't really think mexico's going to pay for the wall. i say, absolutely, 100%.

they say, how are you going to get mexico to pay, and i don't want to go into it, because they won't understand have it. they have no concept of business. you know, the $150 billion we gave to iran, these people have no concept. we have a $58 billion trade deficit with mexico, okay? the wall's going to cost $12 billion. maybe less, any build it, it will be taller, better, and less, okay? so you think of this, they say, how are you going to possibly do it? they make so much money -- plus, we give them subsidy. they make so much money from the united states, it's going to be one of the easy things. and i don't know the you heard, one of the presidents or ex-presidents of mexico held a news conference and he said, we will never, ever, ever pay for the wall. and the press called me and they said, they said they will never pay for the wall. i said, who was it? calderon, he's very nice. good guy. he said, tell him the following. the wall just got 10 feet higher.

got 10 feet higher. yeah, they're going to pay for it. and i get along great with mexico. the problem is, i mean, they buy apartments, i have hundreds and hundreds and even thousands of workers, of hispanics, i'm doing great with. we have such an amazing relationship with hispanics, and they're great people. the problem is the leaders of mexico are too smart for our leaders. they're too smart, they're too cunning. you look at what's going on, it's unbelievable. the border is a disaster. it's a sieve, like people flow over. not going to happen anymore, folks. people can come into our country, but they're going to come in legally. they're going to come in through a process, they're going to come -- they're going to come in legally. so, with trade, we're going to solve the trade problem. i don't know if you saw carrier air-conditioner announced two days ago they're moving to mexico. nabisco, they're moving their big plant from chicago to mexico. ford, they're moving this massive complex, they're building $2.5 billion plant and now they just announced they're building it bigger. yesterday, "the wall street

journal," they announced they're building it bigger. and nobody does anything about it. i'm going to do something about it. so i watched -- somebody said, what would you do about carrier? because that was a sad case. somebody used their cell phone and they were telling them, you know, you're out of work, you're out of jobs, forget it, it's over, we're moving to mexico. and the people are crying, grown men that have been there for a long time, really, incredible people. and they're crying and they're devastated and they lost their job. they've never had another job. and now this plant is -- this whole thing is moving to mexico. and they said, what will you do? i said, tell you what i'm going to do, because, you know, they talk about free trade. i'm a free trade. but i say, if i put a tax on these characters, these, you know, these idiots, these -- i mean, they're like stupid! they say, donald trump is not a true conservative, because he tax -- we've got -- it's got to be fair stuff, folks. it's got to be fair. i'm a conservative person. hey, i'm the most conservative on the border. i'm the most conservative with the military. nobody's tougher than me. i'm the most conservative -- we're going to -- we are going

to make our military so big, so strong, so powerful, nobody's ever going to mess with us, folks. we won't have to use it. i'm the most conservative on taking care of the vets. our vets are treated horribly. we're going to take care of them. i'm the most conservative on common core, we're ending common core. i told you that, and we're moving it locally, and nobody is more conservative, and we call toughness, but nobody is more conservative on the second amendment. so all of these things. but with carrier, so, they have it and they're coming across and they're going to build a plant and probably get some subsidies from mexico. probably -- we probably even give them subsidies. they probably have the united states giving subsidies to move out of the country. that's how stupid it is, and that's how stupid we're run. so what happens is, they say, what will you do? i say, very easy. we call them, we say, let's have a meeting. here's the story, folks. you're moving to mexico, congratulations. but if you don't stay in the united states, you're going to have a problem. here's what you do. you want to move to mexico, build your factory, it's going to be wonderful, hire your

people, they're not from the united states. all those people are now looking for jobs, and those are good jobs. you know, we're hiring a lot of part-timers now, we're hiring -- the numbers are totally phony, the 5% -- totally phony numbers. i say, here's what we're going to do. very simple. you build your plant in mexico, enjoy yourselves, and you're going to sell air-conditioners and just have them cross the border and sell them to the united states? no, you're going to sell a 35% tax on every air-conditioner. it's true. it's the only thing you can do. and you know what, it's the only thing you can do. there's nothing else. because otherwise, how are you going to get them to stop? then you have the devaluations, with china, the all-time -- they're like grand chess masters or grand -- i mean, these people are the greatest, the greatest in history. they're grand masters of that. devaluation. they devalue their currency. japan's doing very well too. they're killing caterpillar. you know, they're all komatsu tractors now. because they devalue -- you take a look at what's happened to the yen, and it's very hard.

a friend of mine, he's a big excavator, you all know excavators, i love excavators, he buys caterpillar towers all the time and he just put in a big order for komatsu, no that he wanted to, but he said, donald, they've made it impossible for me not to buy. they've devalued the yen to such an extent, japan, i owe to it my family, my company, myself, i have no choice. and he was depressed, he had no choice. i said, what's the difference? he said, they're both good, but caterpillar's better. he said, i can't help but do this. well, china is doing that times a hundred, times a thousand. and what they're doing, the valuation of their currency makes it impossible for people to compete. we can't allow that stuff to happen. look, when we send stuff over to china, it doesn't get in. if it does get in, you have to pay a big tax. it's not supposed to be that way. it's supposed to be free trade. it's supposed to be, we come, they go, back and forth. they devalue their currency and

on top of it, they make it impossible. i have a friend who's that great manufacturing. he says, it's virtually impossible to get his goods -- and he makes better stuff than that i do. he says he can't get his stuff into china. i have a friend who bought an airplane, he can't get it into china, and he's going to sell it now at a big loss. and think about boeing, by the way. think about boeing. boeing is building a plant over here. boeing just had a big order from china, but china is making them build a massive airline facility, right? massive, like, bigger than anything you've seen. okay, you feel good about boeing right now? tell me in five years, unless i'm president, you'll be fine, don't worry about it. but tell me in five years you're going to feel good about boeing? because i'll tell you what's happening, they're going to build that plant. they're building, it's going to be furnished soon. but they're going to build that plant, devalue the hell out of their currency, and all of a sudden you'll be reading a big front page story all over the place that boeing's going to

leave, right, south carolina, they're going to make all their planes in china, because that's what they do. that's what they do. and our leaders aren't smart enough to stop it, okay. i have carl icahn endorse me, great businessman, very rich guy, very successful. any told carl, carl, do me a favor, we're going to watch over china trade, we're going to be in great shape! we have right now people that have no concept of what they're doing. they have no concept of what they're doing. they're political hacks. i mean, that's what they are. they're political hacks. and these are the people that are negotiating with these people from china, and again, china, likewise, i get along great with china. largest bank in the world, my tenant, they buy condos for tens of millions of dollars. i have the bank of america building in california, i own a big chunk of that, i got that through china, through a very complex set of transactions, but through china. i think china's terrific. i'm not angry at china. i'm angry at our leaders for not being able to compete with china. i'm not angry.

so, we're going to get things changed around. we're going to use our best people, we're going to make -- we're going to be so smart and we're going to start winning again. we're going to have strong borders, we're going to have strong military, we're going to take care of our vets. we're going to have such great trade deals, we're going to win again. we're going to win again. we're going to win so much. and you know, and by the way, we're going to get rid of isis and we're going to get rid of them fast. i was against the war in iraq, from the beginning. i was against the war in iraq. >> you've been listening to a piece of donald trump town hall that's taking place. we had a little technical issue, we were trying to deal with here. that's what happens when you're live and outdoors. we're going to sneak in a quick break. when we come back, more on our bombshell of a new nbc/"wall street journal" poll that may have been catching something. is donald trump starting to fall? we'll be right back. at safelite, we know how busy your life can be. oh no this mom didn't have time to worry about a cracked windshield. so she scheduled at safelite.com

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tonight, we get our first glimpse into what americans really think about the political fight over the supreme court vacancy. our brand-new nbc news/"wall street journal" poll shows a deep divide over whether the senate should hold out on a vote once president obama nominates a potential court pick. 43% of all voters say senators should vote this year. 42% want scalia's position left vacant until next year when the new president takes off. you won't be surprised by the partisan divide. independents follow that same split, 42/43, but the party line divide is fierce, with an overwhelming majority of democrats for a vote this year and literally the mirror image, same percentage of republicans wanting things to go the other way and delay until there's a new president. could this be the fight that officially makes the pot boil over in washington? that's my theory. stay tuned. if you have moderate to severe rheumatoid arthritis like me, and you're talking to a rheumatologist about a biologic... this is humira.

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and we're back in las vegas, as we showed you at top of the show, we've got a dramatic shake up at the top of the republican field in our new nbc news/"wall street journal" national poll. we've now got ted cruz, as the new partial front-runner, within the margin of error, ahead of trump, 28-26. a 15-point swing in just one month. so here to help us make some sense of these dramatic new numbers are bipartisan polling team of republican bill mcinturff and democrat fred yang. so, bill, let me start with you. we know that the poll was taken, completely after the debate. the new pieces of information that voters had going into our poll were the results from iowa and new hampshire, and that saturday night debate. trump did well in new hampshire, a lot of people didn't think he did well in that debate. are we to assume this poll is a response to that debate? >> well, what we know in this

poll is that donald trump dropped with evangelical voters, very conservative people who listen to talk radio, so there are some certain ideological signs that the core part of the republican ideological base is a lot softer on trump today than it was a month ago, as a pollster, got to tell you, the other differences in this sample, there's a 10% hire number saying they're very conservative. so we're also seeing a survey composition difference, that, you know, may be part of what's going on out there in terms of turnout. >> now, we did -- you noted that. you and fred noted that in your briefing to us in the "wall street journal" earlier today. so you re-weighted the numbers, based on what it looked like a month ago. and we still see the same thing, even if trump's ahead by a point. explain. >> yeah, it just means that even as you adjust and you say, we

used the exact same weights we use through the poll, this race is tied. but still, if you had trump ahead 33-20 and today you have him tied, that's a big difference. now, the other thing you don't know as a pollster, we have to be -- we have to have the courage of your conviction. we have a screen, we use the same neutral screen, we've got to let the numbers fall where they are. but what you don't know, is this a temporary pause, where voters think, hmm, what do i really think about trump, and we're going to snap back right back, or is it the beginning of a sign that says, this is a very different competitive race and they're re-evaluating their position on donald trump. >> fred, i was noting earlier, this is perhaps the most turbulent week of this presidential campaign, when you think about everything that's going on, multiple debates and town halls and attack ads and outlandish charges, back and forth, some of the toughest negative ads that we've seen, more money being thrown on the air. when you're trying to poll in the middle of all of that noise,

explain that difficulty. >> it's incredibly difficult. i think you said earlier to start the show that polling, for example, in the nevada caucus, would be a fool's errand. i would say it's maybe a pollster's errand, because that's our job. look, it's hard. i think that's why chuck builds admonition about the composition of the electorate, you know, who's answering the phone. more importantly, who's going to the polls in nevada and south carolina. that's really going to determine a lot of, obviously, who's ahead and who's behind. but look, i want to say one thing. i think whatever's happening to trump, and right now, he's clearly falling backward, is we saw some of this, the broad strokes, in previous polling. that, number one, when the field of republicans shrink, his support diminishes. that he had less room to grow than the other candidates. we have -- we've had four candidates drop out since our last national poll. and number two, we saw this in january, that of all the candidates running for president

on the republican side, ted cruz is the one who's most ideologically lined with the typical republican primary voter. i think that's another reason why we're seeing cruz rise right now. >> and bill, the bottom of the poll is just as interesting to me as the top. it does seem as if john kasich's new hampshire bump had an impact nationally, you see him in his own, could support levels. you see him picking up where you would expect him to pick up, among moderate republicans, people that don't describe themselves as very conservative. but jeb bush has not gone anywhere. and it seems as if kasich has almost flipped spots with bush. and kasich is the other alternative establishment to rubio. is that the fairest way to look at it? >> well, these are national numbers. we'll have to see what plays out in south carolina. the bushes are well-known there, and the south carolina results could be very different. but, again, as a pollster, when you look at where kasich went up with moderates, when you looked at where trump dropped.

these are very unexpected numbers. and they certainly are different than what we're seeing from other polling out there. but at least internally, they're consistent and they make sense, as fred said, the broad trends we've seen before, and our kind of experience, so, you know, so in general, i think that it's possible that we're going to see further winnowing of candidates as this race goes past south carolina and certainly past march 1st. >> and very quickly, fred, the combined first/second choice, what's interesting here, donald trump drops from second to third, when you combine first and second. rubio jumps up to second place, because that second choice number is so high. what do we make of that? >> well, you know, in the january poll, trump was ahead of rubio in the one-on-one. now rubio's ahead of trump by significant margins. look, january showed, it was a three-person race. this poll showed, it's still a three-person race.

who's ahead right now is changing, but, again, chuck, i think the important thing from this poll is to view it in the context of other polls. again, donald trump has been the political story for the republicans for the past year. and again, as the field shrinks, as the spotlight actually becomes more glaring on him, he does have a ceiling. >> and i think, maybe, we're seeing, possibly that he's hitting it. all right. bill mcentire, fred yang, thank you both. let me turn now to a cruz surrogate here. steve lonegan, the state chair in new jersey for the cruz campaign, but you're here in las vegas. >> i am. >> okay. you know where we are. >> i know where we are, and what i'm seeing in these polls is exactly what we expected. and what you're seeing is the public reacting to the irresponsible reckless, irrationalalty of donald trump, his instability, his crazy rhetoric. look, in the piece before earlier on your program, trump talked about america companies going to china. yet he, himself, has his trump ties and his clothing made in

mexico himself. >> let me ask you about the campaign. you look at polls and you look at body language. i saw our poll this morning, when we saw our numbers, and i was like, wow, cruz is on the move, trump is going down. the last thing i expected was the cruz campaign to have ted cruz have a one-hour long press conference, going half trump and rubio on campaign process and campaign tactics. it seemed a little small. >> actually, it was cruz standing up, as he should be, as a leader, against the guy who's a bully. and demonstrating how he has the pablt to taability to take this on on any platform. people have been looking at this race and saying, who is the guy who we want at the helm of the ship of the united states of america? is it going to be a guy like donald trump, you never know where he's going to be tomorrow or what he's acting like, versus the stability and consistency and character of ted cruz, and his ability to take on his enemies and their opposition. that's what these polls are demonstrating. i can't predict this upcoming election, whether it's south carolina, nevada. i can predict that over time,

ted cruz will continue to outperform expectations, continue to rise in the polls, win in the later states, and ultimately become nominee for the republican party. >> okay, why have you been sent out here? you're a jersey guy, why are you here in vegas? >> because i'm committed to preserving -- i don't want to sound cliche. i'm concerned about the future of this country. i very much am so. and this is a turning point in our nation and our decisions on who's going to appoint the next members of the u.s. supreme court, and who's going to steer this country. and it can't be a donald trump. as a conservative, i'm embarrassed when this guy calls himself a conservative, because conservatives are not authoritarians. and we need true conservative leadership in the white house. >> i see you unloaded on trump. >> i have and i will continue to do so. >> but you did not on rubio. that was also part of the press conference today, this all-out assault on marco rubio. >> we're going to beat marco rubio, we've always been ahead of marco rubio and i don't think marco rubio is a factor. the threat to the republican party is trump. now, that might be the

campaign's whole strategy, but that's mine. >> all right, steve lonegan, i'll leave it there. a lot of passion there. good to see you, thanks for coming on. all right, up ahead, we'll have more on our new national poll, as well as john kasich weighing in on trump's chances at the white house. chris matthews will join me to preview his extended interview with another surging candidate in john kasich. we'll be right back. ♪ he has a sharp wit. a winning smile. and no chance of getting an athletic scholarship. and that is why you invest. the best returns aren't just measured in dollars.

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and click to activate your within. in my business i cbailing me out my i.all the time... i'm not the i.t. guy. i'm the desktop support tech supervisor. and my customers knowing right when their packages arrive. introducing real-time delivery notifications. learn more at myusps.com last thing on trump, can you imagine him as president? can you think of him up the there on the stand of the west front of the capital becoming president of the united states? >> it's kind of hard for me to believe. >> is it? >> yeah. >> so you're with president obama on that, he'll never be president? >> i just don't think -- look, chris -- >> well, you agree he can't be president, so -- >> that's right. that's right. i think what i believe is going to happen is i think, little by little, as the debate stage shrinks, and it's not just the debate stage, that's the dumbest way to pick a president. we've got to debate, okay, tell me the history of the world, go!

you've got 30 seconds, you know, it's ridiculous. but i think the ground game, the town halls, you know, raising money, having a positive message, i just believe it's going to work. >> well, that was chris matthews with john kasich. of course, chris of "hardball." you can see more of that interview with john kasich tonight. and chris joins me now live with more of a preview on what he learned there. chris, here's a guy that you see, he's moved in our poll. our national poll, clearly, the republicans that you would expect to move to kasich have moved to kasich in our polling. the problem for him is there are not enough of them. it's the moderate and independent-leading republicans that have shown the greatest shift towards kasich, when you go into our cross tabs. but he's not getting the more conservative voter. that seems to be the next thing he's got to crack, if he's going to break into the top tier. >> yeah, that's so logical, what you just said. and i think from talking to them, before and after the interview today, i think they're aiming at michigan.

they're hoping to get down to a big-state strategy. and the faster they get the big states like pennsylvania, ohio, his state, michigan, and neighboring states, the better chance he has. but as long as we're fighting it out in the south, it's going to be a tough skirmish for him, from state to state, to get there. >> what do you get the sense, is he -- you know, he loves to talk about how he's running in his own lane. that there's really nobody else running like him. he would have been the on-paper candidate 30 years ago, two-term governor of ohio, successful tenure, been in congress. he would have been the presumptive front-runner 30 years ago, under normal circumstances. how does he navigate this party? hasn't this party moved away from him? >> well, nobody knows better than you, chuck, that soord night was not normal, by any party's standards, by any period in history's standards. you would have to go back to when they were hitting each other with kecanes back in the 19th century. but clearly the shake up you're

showing in the national poll from nbc and "the wall street journal" and bloomberg is astounding. it shows people really did watch saturday night. they saw the front-runner, before this poll and before this debate, smash into the temple of the republican party, which was the belief that george w. bush, whatever else you said about him, kept us safe. he said, no, he didn't. he somehow was on watch. he was on watch during 9/11, and he's responsible for that. and worse than that, perhaps, maybe not as bad as that, was to say that the iraq war wasn't just a mistake, which i think a lot of republicans can live with that, it was a mistake, because it hasn't turned out well. but that it was based on a lie. i mean, if you say that, you're saying republicans, as a party, lied. republicans as a party are responsible, somehow, for 9/11. and that's heresy. absolutely heresy. and i think trump finally said something -- you can say that we won about minority groups or ethnic groups, but when you say something about the party itself, i think it really hurt

him. >> i think you're right. our poll makes sense, when you think of it that way. but we are the only ones out there, showing this kind of movement. every other poll has not shown any damage being done to trump. so, there's always the possibility we're the outlier here and everybody else isn't. but we shall see. logically, it does seem as if our poll makes sense, given what happened saturday night. >> and i think people that were on the sideline saturday night were, you know, people like rubio. who looks always sort of perfect. he always keeps himself under control. at least until that one time, he couldn't. when he was reciting things too many times. but i thought kasich looked better than the others. i think when trump and cruz go at each other, there's a lot of mutual destruction there. and i think that cruz is winning the battle, because he's very good at coming back with the can't, the republican set of beliefs, much better than trump, who's a much more independent sort. clearly.

>> well, i think that's right. he matches with the republican electorate. chris, i've got to let you prepare for your show. >> thank you. >> good deal. tune in tonight, "hardball," 7:00 p.m. eastern, for chris' exclusive sit-down with one of the candidates of the moment, right now, john kasich. more "mtp daily" right after this. but first, here's susan li with the cnbc market wrap. >> thanks, chuck. stocks gained ground for a third straight day. the dow up 257 points. the s&p up 31 and the nasdaq gains 98 points. minutes from the federal reserve's last meeting shows that policy makers, they were concerned about global financial conditions and discussed altering their path on rates and that helped drive stocks into the close. also, housing starts unexpectedly fell in the month of january, sinking 3.8%, to the lowest level in lee months. building permits, meantime, which is a gauge of future activity, also falling during that time period. and that's it from cnbc, first in business worldwide.

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walter scott, freddie gray, tamir rice, so many others. they must motivate every one of us to take on these issues, reforming police practices and making it as hard as possible for people to get guns who shouldn't have them in the first place. >> welcome back to "mtp daily," live in las vegas. you just heard from hillary clinton, shee was speaking in chicago earlier today. she was introduced by the mother of sandra bland, the chicago area woman whose death while in police custody in texas drew nationwide attention about law enforcement practices. and so that's not surprising that with just three days to go before the contest in nevada and

ten days before south carolina, that both candidates are working overtime to court voters of color. tomorrow, both candidates will make their case exclusively right here on msnbc. jose diaz balart and i will be moderating a las vegas town hall at 9:00 p.m. eastern. and that comes as the race out here seems to be growing tighter. you can just look at the body language of both campaigns. and as we learn from iowa, caucuses are very hard to predict, very hard to poll, but we know that both campaigns seem to know the intricacies of this business well. i argue that this is a must-win for sanders, as it is his first test with a more diverse electorate. and both candidates are playing to win in nevada. sanders was out-spending clinton in the state, but the clinton team just pulled ahead, according to our brand-new data. in nevada, politics, unions pack a big punch, and the second largest political union in the state just launched a series of spanish language ads for tv and radio on behalf of clinton.

>> congresswoman dena thomas of south carolina joins us now. you have the strength, right? >> it's a fun place to represent. >> all right, what is, when it comes to understanding these caucuses, this is the second time, really, that they've been contested. how far of a snapshot of what democratic voters in nevada are we going to see with the caucuses? is turnout going to be a little more significant than it was eight years ago? >> well, it was certainly high eight years ago, the first time we did it, because we put our heart into it. we got to be the first in the west. so we took it seriously, and we're doing that again this time. senator reid got it for us in nevada. he's a big proponent. we're all out there saying, turnout and vote, because all

the eyes are on nevada right now. >> so what's a nevada issue that's a little bit different than iowa and new hampshire? >> well, immigration is certainly a big issue here. we have a very large minority population. my district is the most diverse in the state. we've got a large asian, pacific island population, that is the fastest growing, as well as hispanic. >> why isn't hillary clinton just wiping the table here? why isn't it a done deal? harry reid, it's a caucus, it's all these big democratic office holders like yourself are with her. why isn't this a done deal? why is it close? >> i'm confident she's going to win, but she's never taken this state for granted. . that's why she put her a-team on the ground here almost a year ago. she's visited the state a number of times. she's even been to elko, my goodness, that's bold. >> is that bold? >> that is bold. >> you've run statewide. elko is not a friendly place for democrats most of the time, right? >> exactly. she's taking it seriously, going after everybody. >> do you know why it's close? what's your theory?

i think it's hard to poll in nevada. all races get closer at the end. we'll see. i'm confident she's going to win. another thing, she's gotten the dreamers. we talk about immigration endorsing her. i think that's very big. and a number of the big unions are out walking the streets, knocking on doors. >> now, this caucus takes place, they'll actually be in casinos. >> exactly. there are six sides. >> why shouldn't the rest of the country sit there and go, really? >> well, they know it's las vegas. i don't think they're surprised by that. >> they're not surprised? >> but it gives the people who work in these casinos, remember back in the houses. almost a city unto itself, an opportunity to participate. six casinos along the strip will have caucus sites. >> we'll be here and we'll bech wh here, we'll be watching prp. >> good. i'm glad. bernie sanders is determined to change the narrative that he is a single-issue candidate. in fact, here's sanders speaking at historically black morehouse college in atlanta last night. >> you have seen the same pictures on tv as i have, about

local police departments that look like they are occupying armies. we have got to demilitarize local police departments. in america, police departments should reflect the diversity of the communities they serve. >> yesterday, clinton implied sanders was a johnny come lately to racial justice issues, but does that argument stick? i'm joined now by erin bilbray, a nevada superdelegate and bernie sanders supporter. >> thank you. >> welcome. >> delighted to be here. >> let me ask this. why you, your father was in congress, you're a longtime -- you're a superdelegate, which means you have long ties with the democratic party here, probably close with harry reid. why are you with sanders and not clinton? >> you know, it was a real personal struggle, because i've been very much involved with recruiting and training women to run for office. and i really thought about it,

and i listened to what bernie sanders had to say about taking the money out of politics. and i saw, you know, there's a house that's directly across the street from where i live, that has been empty for six years. six years, as a result of what's happened on wall street with the banking. and so that's why i decided i was going to support bernie sanders. >> i asked congresswoman tie dast the top issue here, that would be a little bit different from new hampshire and iowa, she said, immigration. but the first thing you brought up was -- >> the economy. >> the mortgage crisis. is that still bigger here than immigration? >> people are still really suffering, still. so many of our friends had to leave to go out of state, they lost their homes. people are for frustrated a about it, still very worried about their economic future and worried about their children's economic future, so i think it's a big deal. >> in defense of clinton, she's got a wall street plan that's pretty tough. many people have said it's tough. why not trust her on this? why trust sanders more than her? >> it's not that i don't trust hillary clinton, it's that bernie sanders was the one that brought this subject up.

this is something that he cares passionately about. and i know this is going to be the first thing that he does. and all these other things we talk about, that we're concerned about, education, immigration, nothing is going to happen until we take the money out of politics, because right now, washington, d.c. is completely corrupt. because members of congress are chained to their desks, fund-raising. and once we can get that eliminated, we can actually do some great progressive changes. >> but that, getting rid of -- having massive campaign finance reform, that seems like a pipe dream. how do voters get convinced this is something that can get done? >> i don't think so. i think the american public wants this. this is something the american public is behind. and i think that this is a -- i think we need to start having congress listen to what we're saying and have a president that is listening to what we're saying on this issue. >> i'm sure you're not going to concur that this is a must-win for bernie sanders, but this is a very winnable state for him, isn't it? >> if you look at the enthusiasm that's out there right now, i,

quite frankly, have never seen anything like it. and there's another reason why i went over to the bernie sanders campaign. in october, a man that i really respect, asked me to go to an organizational meeting and i didn't really want to go and i didn't really want to go, and i went. i couldn't believe the volunteers, how smart, energetic they were. that got me excited too. you're seeing that with rallies, 400 people were outside the gym and couldn't even get in. bernie had to come with a bull horn and talk to them. it's very excited. >> we'll be watching on saturday, see if he pulls it off. >> i think he will. >> thanks for coming in. we'll have more up ahead. you're watching "mtp daily," rights after this. i have asthma... ...one of many pieces in my life. so when my asthma symptoms kept coming back on my long-term control medicine, i talked to my doctor and found a missing piece in my asthma treatment.

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a new nbc "wall street journal" poll that was taken after saturday night's debate, it's a national poll, showing ted cruz with a slim 2 point margin, 28-26% with marco rubio in third at 17. >> are things closing in here in south carolina? >> well, i think most of these polls were taken after the debate and it worked out good for me. i have never done well in the "wall street journal" poll. i think somebody at "wall street journal" poll doesn't like me. i don't know, they do these small samples, i don't know exactly what it represents. but i am really honored by those poll results. they're great results overall. well, that was donald trump, reacting to our new poll in a preview of the exclusive town

hall coming up at 8 eastern. let's bring in the vegas round table. the las vegas sun, megan. welcome both. >> hometown first. we see the polls, i don't trust any polls out of the nevada caucuses. it is a new phenomenon here. do you feel there is a real engagement and a big turnout. >> hard to say, but that's what the state party is waiting to see, that's what the candidates and the campaigns are waiting to see. last night, i was at a caucus training events where senate minority leader harry reid was at, and he didn't want to put a number on it. he felt there would be great turnout but didn't want to choose a number. but you bring up a good point. it's so hard to poll the state. no one knows what the demographics will be. >> i've been a skeptic of

nevada, they gave us that dual result, sort of -- you've covered national politics. what is your sense? is this becoming a more trustworthy event? >> i don't know if i would call it trustworthy, but i would call it -- if hillary clinton loses on saturday, i think that's politically important. i think we could argue about how real it is, how many come out and caucus, not a lot, but a significant event. whether it should be, that's a different kind of question. >> is this still a machine state? >> it is a machine, but remember. >> but where is the machine? >> the workers are staying out of this, right. that's a big deal. that's why the turnout will be lower. they were the big machine back in 2008. remember, they supported obama, and he won the popular and lost the delegate. the democratic machine is very strong. just getting out the people. >> where is harry reid on this? we think he is with hillary

clinton at the end of the day, but he was one of the people that won in '06 that got him the title. >> yeah, it was funny, last night, i think there were about four or five different reporters to try to get him to tip his hand and he wouldn't. i think everyone is waiting to see. we know about his caucus location. middle school, and so we'll wait and see what happens on saturday. >> all right, let's pivot to the republican side. the rules for the democrats, they vote all day, an all day event. >> they show up at 11:00, and then however long it takes. >> now, the republicans, all over the map? >> yeah, so the republicans, kind of more what you see in iowa, where people go and you have, you know, people talk on both sides saying this is why i represent this candidate and then people will actually mark down on a paper ballot who they support. >> republican going to be a smaller event than the democrats. >> yeah, partly because south carolina is a bigger deal, we're

not seeing a lot of republican candidates here. it's not as contested as the democratic race is. >> i'm out of time. we'll be back tomorrow with more "mtp daily" live from lass have a vegas. my pals start right now, "with all due respect." oh, i'm john helemann. >> i'm john helemann. with all due respect to chris christie, he's back. hey, chris christie, if you're listening, we still love you, man. i'm in south carolina, while my friend, mark, is down in charleston. the race in south carolina has been the political equivalent to a u.s. sea match without the rule about hitting below the belt. the republican voters hot