at angieslist.com. we have 179,000 illegal immigrants who are criminals. these people -- [ boos ] think of it, think of it. no, they're going, they're going, they're going. [ cheers and applause ] as much as you want to put them in our jails, they were probably

sent here so that we'd put them in our jails because to put them in our jails -- they didn't pay the electric bill. oh, i like that much better! [ cheers and applause ] oh, that's so much better. those lights were brutal. are they coming from the dishonest press? oh, don't turn them off. forget it. [ boos ] better, right? don't turn them on. don't turn the lights on. plus we save on electricity, right? and because the lights didn't work, i won't pay the rent so we get better lighting and we don't pay the rent, right? right? no, get those lights off! off! turn them off, they're too -- they're too bright. turn them off! turn them off. let's go, ready? turn off the lights. turn off the lights. [ crowd chanting "turn off the

lights" ] turn them off. [ cheers and applause ] so much nicer. no, no, that's the way we have to negotiate for our country. they just told me it was the protester that turned the lights off. i love you, thank you so much. so much better. all right, you can get him out of here. thank you. [ cheers and applause ] get him out. >> oh, my lord, it's the top of the hour and it's monday and are we back here in new york? yes, we are. it's monday, february 22. welcome to "morning joe." with us on set we have former communications director for president george w. bush nicolle wallace. >> nicolle, how are you feeling today? >> we were watching. >> we were very worried about you on saturday night. >> i had fun on saturday night. >> you didn't look like you were having fun. >> i was having a good time. >> looked like a difficult time. >> which start.

>> the entire part. with you gritting your teeth? >> no, saturday was fun. listen, this stuff is -- if you can detach yourself emotionally it's riveting, right? >> so when do you think that will happen for you? july or august? >> i've talked openly about my ten-step process toward acceptance, my parents are, you know, big trump people so i try to feel their pleasure in the twists and turn this is campaign is taking but, as a republican, it's really an eye opening process to see a guy that sort of takes a -- i mean, you and i talked about this on the air saturday night, see a guy that has come so far toward the far left wing of what the democratic party said about 9/11 prevail among military voters in south carolina. it's amazing. >> what's fascinating is, mika, he prevailed especially among military voters. >> he prevailed among everybody. >> but military voters, too.

willie, the -- there are a lot of people that went to fight over the past 10, 15 years and you would think they may have been offended or felt a little more defensive of their former commander-in-chief, george w. bush. but they did not and i wonder if that's not just an indictment from the men and women who fought the war of 15 years of endless wars. >> yeah, that could be part of it. and part of it maybe they didn't think he was indicting them as military men and women but the leadership that took them to those wars. but it goes to, again, it's the military question, he won evangelicals big. is he a big evangelical? no, of course he's not but he's projecting strength and the military thinks he'll step up for them. evangelicals think he will defend them. not in any specific granular way but in that big overarching theme of his campaign, which is strength. >> it happens across all the issues. look he said yesterday on health care. he said stuff on health care that would make it tough for a democrat to get elected let alone a republican. he effectively backed into the single payer thing and no one

should be without health care and so on and so forth so he's losing his own special bubble. >> again, and on planned parenthood. >> on planned parenthood. >> if any republican told me in a statewide race in the deep south they were going to say planned parenthood does good things, that would be the kiss of death for anybody else. >> well, we also have managing editor of bloomberg politics, mark halperin with us as well. so let's get started. tomorrow is the republican caucus in nevada, but many of the candidates are also looking at super tuesday and the so-called s.e.c. primary. 595 delegates are at stake in 11 states a week from tomorrow with more than half of those in the south. in atlanta yesterday in front of a crowd of 6,000 people, donald trump took multiple victory laps after his south carolina win. >> listen to this. we won with everything. we won with women. i love the women. we won with women. [ cheers and applause ] we won with men.

meh. i'd rather win with women, to be honest, but that's all right. we won with evangelicals. unbelievable. unbelievable. we won with the military. [ cheers and applause ] oh, oh, oh. we won with highly educated, pretty well educated and poorly educated. but we won with everything. tall people, short people, fat people, skinny people. just won. you know these politicians that i'm dealing with? i mean, they're up -- these people, they don't a clue, some are nice guys, actually. some i don't like, some i do like. i won't get into the ones that left, because they're gone. once they're gone, they're gone. they leave, they leave. good luck, we think you're wonderful. how do you like them wonderful people, they're great. the only category i do badly in is my personality, and that's okay. who cares? and you know what? you want to know something?

i'm a better person than the people i'm running against. i see it. [ cheers and applause ] >> all right, mark halperin, i'm not exactly sure where to begin there but i think i will -- let's talk about one area of all the things that he said that actually does have an impact moving forward, something that chris cillizza at the "washington post" yesterday about ted cruz's evangelical problem. ted cruz is so dependent on evangelical voters, they make up three out of four of his voters, maybe four out of five of his voters and yet you have donald trump beating him with evangelicals in the deep south. that's -- that certainly limits cruz's way forward, does it not? and what does the cruz camp think they can do to get around that? >> well, we're going to know a week from tomorrow when all those southern states vote. if you look at the current polling and the current momentum you would say that ted cruz is going to have trouble maybe even

in texas, his home state. -- the three guys who think they can stop trump now all believe they can stop him if they're one on one but ted cruz is in the same position as marco rubio with his demographic and john kasich with his which is they don't have him one on one. so i think ted cruz could, there's limited polling but some polling that suggests he could do better with evangelicals and other conservative, tea partiers, if he had trump one on one, but he doesn't. >> and, again, why in the world should marco rubio or ted cruz get out of the race when they have been so close in all three contests? as far as john kasich, people are -- you know, your usual suspects that are trying to clear the field are saying john kasich needs to get out of the race. the strength of john kasich doesn't even -- we don't even see that until we get to the midwest so kasich isn't going anywhere, either. >> none of them are and i've talked to all three camps about where they think things stand and, again, i think the central

miscalculation is by super tuesday and then two weeks later trump may have not just won a lot of states for more momentum but he may have so many delegates that it's mathematically difficult to see how anybody could stop him, particularly if he wins the winner take all states. it's a puzzle for the party because, again, look at the limited polling there is. all three of them seem to do very well, particularly cruz and rubio, one on one against trump, but he is very well positioned now in these upcoming states a tonight go back to your question about the evangelical vote, i mean, ted cruz has to figure out how he couldn't beat trump or rubio in south carolina and yet somehow he's going to beat them in places like arkansas, tennessee, georgia, and alabama, virginia, oklahoma, where trump's strength is going to be, i think, at this point every bit as much as it was in south carolina where he won decisively. >> you know, nicolle, there are very smart people that are writing about how donald trump's not going to win and how rubio and cruz are going to win and

yet if you ask ted cruz "where are you going to win? are you going to guarantee a texas win?" "no." he would not guarantee a win in his home state. you ask marco rubio, "what's the first state than you can win?" he brings up florida. that's worse than the giuliani strategy. ted cruz has won a caucus. i just -- i'm trying to figure out how -- the kuala lumpcalcul. they're going to win without winning? >> they would be making extraordinary history, right, if anyone were to dethrone trump at this point and the thesis they write around of -- the "national review" piece to that effect and reading the "wall street journal" this morning which makes this case is this fantasy they here in a one-on-one race. i talked to strategists not aloned with campaigns in the race and they said the only way to stop trump is for this to

become a two-man race which there's no sign it will do. >> can you explain one other fantasy? trump said something on stage in a mocking way and everybody laughed but he actually struck at a truth there. there is an assumption that -- well, trump's only getting 35% of the vote, that means 65% of the electorate are against him. that's not how politics works. that's not how politics has ever worked. >> rubio said that yesterday. >> did he really. >> i've been hearing that for so long and yet you actually had coming out of south carolina, south carolinians believing he was the most likely to beat hillary clinton. >> and rubio on his heels in that category only. that was the one bright spot for rubio that night. yeah, listen, these -- you can find a poll to really sort of affirm -- mark mckinnon makes this point in last night's episode of "the circus." you can find a poll to affirm anything but you have to look at 80 years of political history.

there's never been someone who stacked up a fifth, third, and second place that's become a nominee. could his be wrong, it could be? >> everything's been up side down in this election. >> cruz was running as the character guy and thought that was his path and trump and carson -- there's a fascinating coalition that is eating away at cruz's character argument. the dirty trick in iowa, the -- his voters aren't buying what he's saying so i think the biggest red flag to me is hanging over the cruz campaign which is running the most effect i ha ive campaign operationally. >> but just like trump disqualified jeb by calling him a low energy candidate, he's been calling ted cruz a liar non-stop. >> for two weeks. >> a liar, a bad person, how can you be an evangelical when he's a liar, he's a cheater, looking what he did to poor ben carson. >> and i think cruz has hit a dead end after south carolina.

if he couldn't do better in south carolina, where is he going to do better at this point. >> well -- >> sorry, mika, you have establishment republicans saying "we have to stop trump now, if we don't stop him now it will be too late. that means getting him in a one on one." which of these two candidate, marco rubio or ted cruz do you ask to get out of the race and why would they ever? >> i have bad news for the republican establishment, if you were going to stop him, i'll tell them what i said to ed rollins when we were talking during the mike huckabee thing. if you're going to stop john mccain, you stop him in south carolina or it's off to the races. because after south carolina everything picks up, everything's fast, whoever has a momentum going out of those three states -- iowa, new hampshire, south carolina -- they ride in on a rocket through all these states that just come at you a thousand miles an hour. >> he's also ahead -- n tin thep we put up. there's not a single state poll

i've seen in any of these states where trump is behind. marco rubio and ted cruz are trying to frame themselves as the alternative to the front-runner. rubio had an event moved out side to accommodate the crowd. >> there's a lot of -- i can barely -- i should have worn my high heel boots, i can't see all the way back there. i believe this is our largest crowd in the campaign [ cheers and applause ] >> marco rubio gets big points right there, making fun of his boot, for the record. >> rubio continues in little rock, arkansas, speaking to a rally with 2,000 people and ended the night out west 1500 people in north las vegas, nevada, ahead of tomorrow's caucus. you'll recall that nevada is the state the "national review" has called rubio's firewall noting "his team has crafted the grass-root campaign that according to more than a dozen nevada gop operatives and state officials is the most organized and impressive operation of the

republican field with the ability to make inroads in the mormon community and in las vegas where he lived until he was in eighth grade and with a campaign strategy centered on caucus training and voter turnout, rubio is positioned for a strong showing on february 23." >> mark halperin, he grew up here, he invested money here, the "national review" said in this article forget about the first three states, this is his firewall. they were saying this about a month or so ago when rubio was facing a lot of criticism about not investing they said this is the state that he was putting all of his chips on, so it looks like he should be in a really good position to win. why are you laughing? he keeps laughing. >> because all my reports suggest that trump is going to win this state by the biggest margin of any state he's won yet. i was with rubio at all three of those events yesterday. so we have this thing you've been discussing. the establishment says now is the time to stop trump, we're

eight days away from trump maybe winning every state on super tuesday. last night or yesterday from tennessee to arkansas here to a late night rally in vegas how many times do you think rubio mentioned donald trump yesterday in his stump speech? >> i don't know. >> none times. [ laughter ] >> what time is it in vegas? >> maybe this is the strategy to wrest the nomination against the front-runner but many people are pointing to what mitt romney did to gingrich. you are behind, one guy is in danger of running the table, a threat of running the table with momentum and you spend your day giving a very solid stump speech, very well received, pretty decent sized crowds, did not mention donald trump. >> but he's from nevada. it's his other home state. he's invested there. >> i think he may well finish second here. >> this is a state he needs to win, right? he should win this state.

>> he may well finish second here, although driving here on the strip on the way over here i saw a giant building that said "trump" but i didn't see buildings that said "marco rubio." i don't think he's going to win. trump has got a big lead here, it's his kind of state. he's worked this state pretty hard. he's got rallies here. i have no indication marco rubio will win this state. or come close. >> it says it's his firewall. >> all right, we get the point. >> it's his firewall. >> to mark's point, it's amazing the degree to which none of the other candidates are talking about the front-runner. they won't talk about him, they're not spending money on negative ads, there's a couple hundred of ads. >> this is a whisper critique about the bush campaign now as it's now over that even when jeb bush turned his focus to trump and got a lot of credit inside the party for doing so, the paid media didn't follow. so even though jeb turned to a more frontal posture with trump,

the paid media was still taking down christie and rubio so this is -- this has been tried before and you can ask jeb bush how it worked out. >> the thing is, though, mika, i want to go back as mark brought up a great point. when newt gingrich, sort of a trump-type figure, when newt gingrich went ahead of mitt romney, mitt romney narrowed his focus on newt and he bludgeoned him. he bludgeoned him to death twice. coming up into iowa, gingrich went into first place and mitt turned everything he had on newt gingrich, destroyed him. thought he finished him off and then gingrich rose again, won south carolina, was going into florida, mitt romney just absolutely assassinated his character, tore him to shreds and he won florida. it was ugly but it worked.

these guys are going around a political -- who can only be described as a political colossus that nobody understands and they're not attacking him. do you want to be in second and third? i mean, maybe that is the millennial generation, mika, maybe third place is okay for these guys. [ laughter ] >> everybody's a winner. >> but unless you think they're stupid, what's the answer to the question? why are they not doing this? >> i don't know, are they scared? >> i think they're scared. >> they r they scared to attack him because every time you attack him he turns on you? which has always been my operating theory with trump. he attacks everybody and he doesn't do it fair and it's vicious because he's learned that stops them from attacking back. >> it wasn't even just romney, though who went after gingrich, you had surrogates on tv. you had surrogates showing up at gingrich events. you could send to a trump event a trump impersonator and a nancy

pelosi and hillary clinton impersonator and make mischief there. there's none of that. there's no effort to stop him and i think answer is they're all under this fantasy that if they just do their thing and beat the other guys besides trump in the upcoming contests that they'll get him one on one but i just look at the calendar and think that we'll wake up march 2 and trump will have, again, right now i think he could win every state on march 2. and when i float that to the other campaign, they don't dispute it. let's get to other headlines now. in financial news, asian markets advanced overnight. this came as crude oil prices edged up in early trading. right now u.s. dow futures are up 190 points. and this morning we are learning about the suspect accused in saturday's deadly rampage in kalamazoo, michigan. police say 45-year-old jason dalton was an uber driver and had no criminal record. he is expected to be arraigned today. uber said dalton had passed a background check and the company was horrified and heartbroken.

eight people were shot, six of them died. one victim, a 14-year-old girl, was pronounced dead for more than an hour when she suddenly squeezed her mother's hand. they were about to prepare her organs for donation when this happened. doctors then rushed her to surgery. one man tells nbc affiliate in kalamazoo he ordered an uber saturday night thinking it would be safer than walking home after hearing about the shootings. he says jokingly that he asked dalton, who was his driver, "you're not the shooter, are you?" dalton was arrested shortly after dropping the man and his family off. so he was. finally, fbi director james comey is following back following apple's refusal to help unlock an iphone belonging to one of the san bernardino shooters. in a new statement comey wants "we simply want the chance to try to guess the terrorist pass code without the phone essentially self-destructing and without it taking a decade to

guess directly. that's it. we don't want to break anyone's encryption or set a master key loose on the land." at the same time, former cia director michael hayden took issue with comey's approach in an interview with "usa today." >> in this specific case i'm trending toward the government but i have to tell you, in general i oppose the government's effort personified by fbi director jim comey. jim would like a back door available to american law enforcement in all devices globally. and, frankly i think on balance that actually harms american safety and security. >> general hayden will be our guest tomorrow on "morning joe." >> i don't know how that harms america's national security. >> it doesn't. >> i'm sorry -- >> how what harms americans' national security? not being able to get into the iphone. >> being able to get in. >> he was saying having a back door to go into these encrypted

messages that trooierrorists ar increasingly using. if i were a terrorist, i would be buying stacks of iphones because i have a company actively defending the privacy right of dead terrorists who shot americans in cold blood. this is madness. it's just absolute madness right now that apple won't turn the phone over. >> can i say a couple things? first i agree with you in this particular case but it is more complicated than some people make it out to be. for example, if there is a back door that exists, in other words, if the technology exists for someone to get into any phone, the question is how long is it before that technology gets in the hands of the russians, of somebody we don't want -- >> but the government isn't asking for the technology. the government is saying "here, you do it and let us know --" i agree with you but the government is saying hey, open it for us. >> take your example. another example -- and i'm not here as apple spokesman because i agree with you but i want to make sure we understand the ramifications. then what happens when the

government of china says to apple "we have a phone of a guy who we think is a terrorist in china, tell us what's inside it." >> well, that's not the case. they are now dealing -- >> but that will happen. that will happen. >> that's opening the door. >> that will happen. >> well, i don't think it's an equal -- >> they're not a chinese corporation, they're an mesh corporation. >> but they have to obey chinese law. if they're selling iphones -- >> if there was a slaughter of innocent civilians -- >> i'm not disagreeing with you, i just want to make sure you understand the ramifications. they're selling iphones in china, they have to follow chinese law. so it comes down to business and brand and their representation for privacy and practically speaking to what they worry about and i worry a little bit about but i'm on your side, joe, on this which is what pandora's box does this open going forward? >> mike barnicle said it a long time ago, this is more of a marketing decision than anything else. i actually think apple is actually damaging itself.

>> i think it's an interesting debate. we should do an entire segment on it because there's definitely a door that's opened but i agree as. we it should be. still ahead on "morning joe," if you're marco rubio and people are giving you a hard time for being a bit young, is it wise far super pac backing you to compare you to "harry potter"? just wondering. >> no. >> are you sure? >> i like harry potter? >> he's a sweet little boy. plus, over seven months republicans not named trump have spent $220 million. but as the race shifts south, who has the deepest pockets to take him on? and later this morning, mousse j house majority leader kevin mccarthy joins us. we'll be right back. i think it landed last tuesday.

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>> no, no, i can't take it! >> i know things look bad now, but just try to visualize another america, one where republicans, democrats and donald trump all get along.

>> i'm enjoying watching hillary clinton -- >> i like ted cruz, he's been very nice to me. >> as an act of love. >> this is an issue where bernie and i are in complete agreement. ♪ how sweet it is to be loved by you ♪ >> i was perfect. the rest of you morons were flat. >> flat? or flat broke like your casinos? >> flat, like the canadian prairie you were born on. >> let's dispel once and for all with this fiction that he doesn't know what he's doing. he knows exactly what he's doing, exactly what he's doing. >> oops. >> you want to see something my mother suggested? >> go ahead. >> goldman sachs says hello! >> hillary, if i get elected, will you tell me what to do? >> oh, my gosh! >> goldman sachs says hello. [ laughter ] >> if it wasn't so close to -- joining us now from washington, pulitzer prize winning editorial writer for the "washington post," jonathan capehart.

the state of south carolina's job market may have affected voters' decision on saturday, i mean early on, because sometimes we go a little bit -- >> sometimes we do them at 9:15. >> well, there's that. but you look at south carolina voters on a number of levels -- >> oh, yes, okay. here we go. there we go. so we talked about how trump won pretty much across the board and he actually i think did lose among post-graduates, but leave that aside. let's look at groups where trump did particularly well, those with a high school education or less where trump got 45% of the vote, well above his 32% or so average and rubio did particularly badly. and let's look at people with lower incomes, below $50,000, where he did a bit better than his overall average and, again, rubio did particularly badly. and so you get to the question of what's going on in south carolina with their economy and with jobs. so if you take a look at what's happened in south carolina to manufacturing jobs, and this chart goes back to the year

2000, but what you can see starting kind of at zero as a baseline, you can see the country as a whole has lost 29% of its manufacturing jobs, that's after this so-called manufacturing renaissance that really obviously wasn't much of one that you can see here. and you can see that south carolina lost 31% of its manufacturing jobs. and so if you here in a situation where you don't have a high school diploma and where you're earning less than $50,000 a year and 30% of your manufacturing jobs disappear, you here in a state with lower median income, a state with higher unemployment, it's not shocking that someone who is talking about trade, closing the borders, dealing with these jobs would resonate. >> somebody brought this up last week that blue-collar evangelicals were more likely to go for trump than they were for cruz and this is a great example of where -- and then the person said who will be voting among

the evangelicals in south carolina? blue-collar evangelicals, big advantage for trump. this is a good example of actually where you're economically even trump's where you go to church on sunday, in blue-collar evangelicals flooded toward donald trump. >> if you want to see why trump's trade position has so much resonance, take a look at what's happened nationally to manufacturing in certain categories. textile and apparels, which used to be south carolina's single-biggest industry, 70% of the jobs are gone. if you look at furniture, which is more in north carolina, the neighboring state, 40% of the jobs are gone. and so on. only in places like food are we kind of holding our own for obvious reasons, you don't move fo food around the world so easily. so trump's anti-trade 35% tariffs appeal to lower income less educated workers has a lot of resonance. >> is that changing in south carolina, steve, at small when

you fly into charleston, i'm sure you saw, boeing has a massive construction project under way. you hear about bmw, but maybe not enough to make up for the losses? >> exactly. this is one of the great myths that they've got these new aerospace jobs and new foreign car companies, and they do. but they're not nearly enough to overcome the loss of manufacturing jobs. by the way, the person who has that blue-collar education, just has high school, he's not going to be putting jet engines together in south carolina. he's going to be unemployed in all likelihood and voting for trump. >> as they say also in greenville on a friday and saturday night, you're more likely to hear german spoken on the streets of greenville. that it's crazy. a lot of people actually coming into the united states and working at some of these higher tech jobs. jonathan capehart, let's talk about the depthic side. how big was hillary's win on saturday night? >> really big. i think what it did was it calmed down a lot of people, a

lot of her supporters certainly who were afraid going up right until the polls closed that she was going to lose nevada and the impact that that would have on her campaign, not only going into south carolina but going forward. so you could hear a collective sigh of relief from hillary clinton supporters. you look at the papers today and there are all sorts of stories about how it's going to be from this point going forward difficult for senator bernie sanders in terms of delegates to catch up with her. and i think we showed on "way too early" senator sanders at the black church in south carolina and the difficulty he had there in connecting with african-american voters and there's a story in the "new york times" this morning also highlighting this problem that the senator has. so you take that plus hillary clinton's win and the momentum she gets from that and, you know, the future for senator sanders doesn't look as bright as it did before the nevada

caucuses. >> it does not and look at where she's headed to, the south carolina primary in which african-americans will likely make up more than half of the electorate and the clinton campaign has released two new ads, including this one with morgan freeman. >> she says their names. trayvon martin -- >> shot to death. dontre hamilton, unarmed. >> sandra bland. >> sandra bland did nothing wrong. >> she speaks for a city poisoned by indifference. >> we need action now. >> and stands with the president against those who would undo his achievements. just like she's always stood with us. >> i think she's poised to do very well in south carolina. >> yeah, that's a very -- nicolle, that's a strong ad. very strong add. >> i saw that. incredible ad. she certainly looked like she got some of her mojo back watching her victory speech saturday night and, you know, i think that the democratic

process with their superdelegates means that the democratic race ends a lot faster than the republican race. i was thinking can you imagine if republicans had superdelegates and they were somehow stacked behind or against trump: the democratic process is so much more corruptible i think in the minds of the sanders' revolution. i mean, it doesn't feel fair. >> it is more corruptible and it's more -- you look at the iowa caucus which, you know, it's -- >> they ostensibly tied. >> they intentionally try to make it as -- well as muddy as possible. no transparency there because it is a more corruptible system for the front-runner. >> i don't disagree with any of that but at the end of the day as jonathan said what happened in nevada is important. it's important as how trump did in -- >> it's a turning point. >> more so, more so. >> it's hard to see what sanders' path is at this point with or without superdelegates. >> it's fair to ask the question as to whether it's even possible for him at all. i don't see -- does anyone see a

pathway for him? >> well, let's see what happens on super tuesday. he's going to have to start doing better with black voters. and we'll see what happens on super tuesday. but he can't give up a lot of losses on super tuesday. we'll see. there are always surprises. >> all right, jonathan will stay with us. and coming up -- >> yeah, you know what ricky bobby says, if you're not first, you're last. in this case, we'll make an exception. we'll show you the closest finish ever at daytona when "morning joe" continues. it's incredible. we broabout this new car. to get your honest opinion to keep things unbiased, we removed all the logos. feels like a bmw. reminds me a little bit of like an audi.

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it was an incredible finish at yesterday's daytona 3500. the final rach came down to inches. drivers denny hamlin and martin truex, jr., in the dash to -- >> oh, my gosh, wait: no, there's one in front. >> after 500 miles. watch this. >> here they come to the line! this is the finish of the daytona 500. side by side bouncing off each other. unbelievable. >> i think it was denny hamlin. >> well, who was it? >> hamlin headed down victory lane for the first time at daytona. >> it's like ted cruz and marco rubio. >> he edges -- >> yeah, except trump is already in victory lane e. >> they don't know that, they

think they won. >> well, everybody's a winner. that's everybody's a winner confetti right there. one one hundredth of a second. this was the closest finish, obviously, in the event's history. now to california's country club for the final round of the pga tour's norther trust open. bubba watson lost a slim lead briefly and then regained the advantage and edged the field for a one stroke victory. it's his ninth career tour win and second northern trust open and the victory came at the end of a busy week at which, well bubba says he passed a kidney stone. let's let his words speak for himself. >> i passed two in the last five years. best way to say it is it shot aoude. no pain, never any pain but i don't know if you've ever had red liquid come out. it's scary. [ laughter ] so this -- so sunday i made the

cup, i missed the cut at pebble and i -- that sunday morning playing with the kids i had to go take a bathroom break and same thing, is red liquid came out. i said this ain't right. we called the doctor here, they set me up with a place, i landed monday morning, went, i did a ct scan in 30 minutes after the ct scan, again, just downing water, thinking it's going to be the same thing. five years ago he said there was one more in my system so obviously it decided this week was the -- my baby came out i guess. >> what is going on here? >> why did he give us that information? >> it shot out! who said journalism was dead. i'm impressed? >> does he know that that's perhaps something you say, like, at home to a family member. >> i think it's sweet -- >> no, no. >> he's sharing, they're opening up. >> why does he have to share with us? >> nothing along those lines but

there's a lot of pressure on them to share. it makes his success look even more -- >> no. sorry, no. >> it just gives us a mental vision we just don't want to have. >> i don't get golf. i don't get it. up next, it's sobering to remember what the next president will inherit. richard haass of the council on foreign relations jumped in early and regrets it and gives us his take next on "morning joe." hbor boy. (neighbor) yeah, so we're just bringing your son home. he really loves our wireless directv receiver. (dad) he should know better. we're settlers. we settle for cable. but let us repay you for your troubles. fresh milk for the journey home? (neighbor) we live right there. (dad) salted meats? (neighbor) no thank you. (dad) hats then! (vo) don't be a settler, get a $100 reward card when you switch to directv. iher life's work has been about breaking barriers.age.

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cease-fire go into effect on friday. let's bring in the president of the council on foreign relations richard haass. richard, is there going to be a peace deal that works? >> no, because john kerry is showing the problems. when you try to do diplomacy and the situation on the ground is going in one direction and you're going in another direction, you won't succeed. i don't care how many hours he puts into it, how earnest he is, you can't succeed if the facts on the ground are aligned against you. >> let's talk about an issue that's going to have an impact on great britain and the continuing battle with e.u., boris sort of stabbed the prime minister in the back yesterday. tell us about it. >> several years ago, prime minister david cameron in order to keep his party together decided to have a vote, a referendum on britain's relationship with the european union. it's now set for june 23. one of the most powerful competitors to him in the party is the mayor of london who's more pop lust and he came out against it.

what this does is shows this vote could go either way, stakes are enormous for britain. it could mean if it goes out, not only economic consequences but it could mean things for scotland and revoting. >> and boris johnson politically wants to be cameron's successor, right? >> if cameron loses the referendum, i don't think he's in a survivable position, you'll have an open vote in the party and boris johnson, now the de facto head of the opponents, stands a decent chance of beating him. >> that's a significant development isn't it? >> a change in leadership would be huge, as richard implied, bigger would be the question of whether britain leaves the e.u. and i know the conventional view is britain should stay in the e.u. i'm not quite as sure. i think there's real issues around it. it puts britain in the middle of the whole european mess, whether you talk about immigration or regulation controlling your own destiny. it's a fair question. >> it might be for britain but for us it's one sided. the united states needs britain and europe.

it's a powerful voice for moderation. i think britain unravels. it won't just leave europe. i think the united kingdom will become the disunited kingdom if they leave europe. let's talk about elections in iran. what's the impact on the negotiations? >> elections in iran, you won't have to stay up all night, joe, i want to reassure you. the exit polls won't be critical. >> you know, ironically enough you know who the "national review" says will win. >> marco rubio. >> stop it! >> it's his firewall. >> the guardian council, this appointed body that vets the candidates -- and there's two elections, one is for the parliament, the other is for the assembly of experts that chooses next ayatollah, they have so vetted the contestants that most people in iran see no reason to vote because they any the outcome is preordained. >> and it is, right? >> as a matter of fact they have a point. so the quote/unquote elections or democracy whatever you want

to call iran, it's all quote/unquote. it's so guided that the results of the elections are pre-ordained. it will lack legitimacy. the regime is urging people to vote. >> richard haass, stay with us. jonathan cap ha jonathan capehart, thank you for everything. and up next, house majority leader kevin mccarthy is next. much more "morning joe" ahead. if you need advice for your business,

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a . up next, it's the big question heading into the next phase of the republican primary -- where will jeb bush's backers with the big money go after spending $34 million in january alone? one of the best money men in the business, the "new york times" nick confessore is hear what a look at who's in the best shape -- >> we're going to listen to nick unless there's a trump speech, then we'll cut away. >> we'll cut away if him immediately if donald trump takes the podium. >> he was on this network yesterday explaining trump's success and he said "well, every time the guy gives a speech, he doesn't need to spend money, networks cut away." and at that moment i said "sorry, we've got to see donald trump, he's speaking in atlanta right now." he was like check mate! next on "morning joe."

listen to this. we won with everything. we won with women. i love the women. we won with women. [ cheers and applause ] we won with men. meh. i'd rather win with women, to be honest. but that's all right. we won with evangelicals. like unbelievable. unbelievable. we won with the military. [ cheers and applause ] oh, oh, oh. we won with highly educated, pretty well educated and poorly educated. but we won with everything. tall people, short people, fat

people, skinny people. just won. >> and wearing the same out fit, the same exact out fit, richard haass. >> what are you buying for? >> i think we know who his foreign policy advisor is going to be. >> it's a well-chosen outfit, richard. >> richard would not be that shameless. >> welcome back to "morning joe." it's the top of the hour. still with us on set, former treasury official and "morning joe" economic analyst steve rattner. and, of course, the president of the council on foreign relations, richard haass. >> it's going to be working i i think, in the trump administration. >> i think he might. i think he might. political writer for the "new york times" nicholas confessore. and in nashville, tennessee, jon meacham. >> i'd love for you to comment on the events of the last weekend, jon, and specifically how you have to establishment simultaneously squealing and in a real state of self-denial

whenever political operative we've talked to around the table sounded like dandy don on "monday night football." turn out the lights, the party's over. >> right. well there's been a bush on the republican national ticket for six out of the last nine presidential elections. it's a remarkable achievement as a family and that -- in this generation this came to an end this last weekend. his -- jeb's grandfather first ran for the senate 66 years ago. was elected 64 years ago. so a big chunk of american history has reached a new chapter. i think the establishment in so far as there is one is in den l denial. at a certain point, numbers don't lie and i think that's where the republican primary race is right now. >> and nick confessore, talk

about money. you can look at everything that trump's done electorally and it's very impressive, more votes than anybody in the history of the iowa caucuses other than the guy that beat him. just a -- what the "national review" called a dumpster fire in new hampshire because trump walloped the bluestablishment s much. and then in south carolina taking on the pope and everybody else he's up -- he wins by double digits. so let's put all that to the side. now just look at the money. he's doing this without spending much money at all which undercuts everything we all thought we knew about big money in politics coming in. trump and sanders. >> it turns out if you have your own money, first of all, you need less of other people's money so he's raising a ton of money from small donors and he's

loaning himself money. he's not penniless, he's loaning himself money but compared to jeb bush who spent $100 million for fourth place finishes, it's astounding. and bernie sanders as we've spoken about has created a whole new model that is pure small donors at presidential scale fund raising which we haven't seen before in modern history. >> so, tell me, is there going to be, do you believe, a long-term impact on right to rise's failure? because a couple months ago when i thought his opponents were whistling past the graveyard but they said, yeah, sure, he's got over $100 million to spend in his super pac commercials but they charge, like, 10 times as much for those ads than what they have to charge candidates. so you're just not getting the bang for your buck. and we were talking this weekend. donald trump puts out a tweet about the pope or instagram about bill clinton and he gets more impact than $100 million in ads. >> look, there's a whole new

model that donald trump has pioneered here. if media is the single most expensive cost in a traditional campaign or you can get it for free with your own social media accounts, it takes away this gigantic cost. on the other hand, i think some of bush's money had an impact. it took some bark off marco rubio in these last two primaries and this will have an impact on him going forward but it's astounding that $80 million in positive ads about jeb bush's record could not persuade people he was the right person at the right time. >> even a fake tweet benefits him. >> but as you pointed out, joe, this isn't the first time in history this has happened. john connolly, phil gramm, you've had people in the past spend a lot of money and have nothing to show firt. i wonder whether anybody besides donald trump could pull this off, could get so much free media that you don't need spend all that money on ads. >> a good question. he's a master of this but, look, bernie sanders again has also been able to do without the big donor class. he's not needed them. i think to do it without --

>> but he's raised a lot of money. >> to do it without any money requires a special talent but the reason donald trump is winning in south carolina is he has expose this class divide within the gop built around wall street and immigration and trade and he said i'm going to actually speak up for what you see as your interests on these issues, these other guys will not. and that alone is a powerful message. >> i want to say again, i've brought this up several times, mika, this is a class divide that has been in republican politics since 1994. when we took over congress in 1994, our strongest socioeconomic group voting for us, people earning $50,000 and less. we were skeptics on trade, just unfettered free trade. we were skeptics on a lot of other issues that we're talking about right now. and it was where conservatism

and populism came together, donald trump -- what donald trump is doing, we've talked about it before, jon meacham, what he's doing is ma what pat buchanan did in '92 and '96. it's what ross perot did in 1992. you can go back to george wallace and 1972. but it goes back first to a guy you wrote a book about, andrew jackson. >> yeah. absolutely. you know, you have an outsider who is saying things, seems to be speaking for people who feel disenfranchised. who feel that the system itself does not work for them, that it's rigged against them, you know, the -- this is for mika, but the key text of american populism is a veto message that jackson wrote in 1832 where he talks about how, you know, if fall rivers from the government

affect everyone and falls on us like the rain, that's fine, if it falls for the privileged and the few than it's wrong and that's a large part of the argument here. the other thing that's going on, and this is somewhat shakespearean, is that as you're saying, the landslide of 1994 was in many ways a reaction to jeb's father changing his mind and breaking the no new taxes pledge in 1990. and that gave rise to a populist energy that helped create the political atmosphere we now have a quarter century later. >> but perot and buchanan did not make it. >> no, but the reason it's having real traction now, you have to stagnation of middle incomes and also you've got this rapid rate of technological innovation and all these jobs are being displaced and they're not coming back. so i think it's the context that also really explains why this is having such traction. >> you've had 20 more years of the trends that buchanan and

perot were first picking up on when they were talking about jobs leaving america which really started in earnest the late '60s early '70s, sped up by globalization in '78 when china opened up and you move forward to '94. but 20 years later we've seen, as steve just showed with his charts on manufacturing in south carolina, it's exploded and this a message -- >> both parties look weak on. >> this it's a message both people want to hear but regardless of who wins i hope we don't exactly do what some of these play books are saying because we can all have concerns about free trade, i have a lot of concerns about free trade, but putting a 35% tariff on everything we import is not a good outcome. >> at the same time, steve, you wrote a column in the "new york times" that i agree with completely. it's one thing to -- it's one thing to not put tariffs on it, it's not thing to bow at the altar of unfettered free trade under any circumstances and say that it's always best for the

people and always best for the workers when ewe have 50 years f trade deals that prove that's not the case. >> you wrote a great toll lum for the "times" that people need to read. it needs to be fair trade, free trade but smart trade. and i can tell you as a member of congress, you were painted -- the president, whoever it was, republican or democrat, would come up with a free trade deal and it was like you're either for this or you're a neanderthal and there was no middle ground and that thinking was reinforced by the opinion pages of the "wall street journal" and far too often the "new york times" and it's -- the fix has been in for unfettered free trade under any circumstances and there are workers from new hampshire to south carolina that, as your column said, felt the brunt of those deals. very great for 1%, very great for the corporations, very great for people that want to move jobs and products across the globe, not so great for somebody that used to have a good-paying

job in a manchester factory more to a textile mill in south carolina. >> fine, but let's also remember there's other pieces to this puzzle of the populist economic policies that are scary. >> we understand. >> i'm just trying to -- see even when i try to promote your "new york times" article, you're kicking me and it makes me sad. i'm on your side. >> i'm not kicking you and i'm saying thank you very much for doing that. but can i add one other thing? >> quickly, yeah. >> the economic policies in this package are not just about free trade. there's a bunch of other stuff there and some of it is kind of scary. >> right. >> andrew jackson destroyed the american economy in a version of anti-wall street fervor similar -- afall us go to what we're seeing to say. >> and it's not going to happen here because obviously you have a congress who's bought and paid for by wall street so there will be a nice balance. we need go to news. one last thing. we've been trying to get to news for seven minutes. >> there's got to be an emphasis

on education and retraining. jobs are disappearing not simply because of trade and foreign competition, but because of new technologies. these jobs aren't coming back. unless these workers get trained and re-educated as they get older, we have to think of a different education system. high school and college won't be enough anymore. people in their 40s 50,s and 60s will have to get retrained? >> vocational training, we keep talking about it, some presidential candidate needs to jump on it. >> i'm just saying i think this is the moment when the working class white people in the republican party are reclaiming the economic agenda of their party for themselves. that's what's powerful here. it's fascinating to watch. marco rubio and ted cruz are trying to frame themselves as the alternative to the front-runner. rubio rallied about 4,000 people in franklin, tennessee, yesterday. an event that was moved outside to accommodate the crowd. >> there's a lot of -- i can -- i should have worn my high heel boots that i had on. i can't see all the way back

there. [ laughter ] i believe this is our largest crowd in the campaign [ cheers and applause ] >> that's very funny. >> rubio continued the day in little rock, arkansas, speaking to a rally with 2,000 people. >> big crowds. really big crowds. >> ended out the night with 1500 people in north las vegas, nevada, ahead of tomorrow's caucus. you'll recall the sate is the state the "national review" called rubio's firewall. noting "his team has crafted the grass-roots campaign that according to more than a dozen nevada gop operatives and state officials is the most impressive operation of the republican field. with the ability to make inroads in the mormon community and in las vegas where he lived until he was in eighth grade and with a campaign strategy centered on caucus training and voter turnout, rubio is positioned for a strong showing on february 23." >> again, you look at the mormon community and you look at the fact that he lived there, his first home to lose -- i guess eighth grade. >> yup?

>> was it eighth grade. and then you look at this. they've been planning for a long time for it to be his firewall so it should be a big win for him. >> but ted cruz also campaigning in nevada yesterday dismissed rubio's ability to win. >> he was asked what state can you win? you weren't able to win in iowa, you weren't able to win in new hampshire, you weren't able to win in south carolina, when can you win a state? and the answer he gave is he said "well, i think we could win florida on march 15." now, that's a fairly amazing admission that they don't believe they're going to win here in nevada. apparently they don't believe they're going to win any states on super tuesday. >> so says the man, mark halperin, who would not even guarantee a win in his home state of texas yesterday and we keep talking about -- and since everybody's our friend we don't want to embarrass them on the columns but we keep talking about columns from the gop establishment that remain in denial about this. when you have these two

candidates that won't even guarantee that they can win anywhere. >> one of the funniest talking points i think is these other candidates who say well 70% of the republican electorate is rejecting donald trump. will, 80% of the republican electorate is rejecting marco rubio and ted cruz and john kasich. they don't have a rational, clear, even semilinear way to describe how they're going to stop him right now so they're doing their best to come up with talking points. but i think, i said before, someone has to take him on and someone these say "i'm going to stop trump here. this is going to be where i stop trump and prove to people that i can beat him." there's no indication any of the three are doing that. >> let's talk, nick, about money right now. it's one thing, and i understand that nevada is rubio's firewall, but once you get past nevada and south carolina and new hampshire and iowa suddenly it explodes and people that have never run a presidential race who have been around a presidential race don't understand they're now sort of like shooting through a tunnel

on a bullet train where the races come at you so quickly you can't even raise money fast enough to be able to spread it around to 12, 13 states. >> that's right. look, nevada is the end of the line for the candidates who say i people going to win this one state, that will be it. what's true about both kasich and rubio is that according to their last filings, they were both running out of money. kasich really so. a million dollars, maybe, the most. rubio better $4, million. but their super pacs are also dry. so there's no artillery coming in. and after that nevada caucus, to compete in 12 states at once you need a lot of money if you're going to do it the right way. it's very hard to see how rubio oar kasich can do that with the cash we saw them having. >> but the cash -- the numbers you have were as of the end of january, right? so the question will be whether coming in second in south carolina allows for more money. >> i was going to ask mark

halperin that. mark, the rubio people were telling reporters off the record that they had to do well in south carolina because they just had enough money to make it through south carolina. did what was in effect a tie for second place, behind by 11 points, theed they give rubio enough momentum to get new voters piling in open-to-help him through super tuesday? >> i don't think they're going to get jeb bush's donors as fast as they're hoping. they'll wait for a signal from jeb bush. but i don't think there's any doubt the super pac will be replenished and the rubio operation has done its advertising through the super pacs. i will not say that money is all that important because trump isn't spending very much, either. cruz has some but presidential politics is about earned media much more than paid. no one seems to be running ads that are breaking through. >> but if i can respectfully disagree, tell me why i'm wrong here, i think donald trump has the advantage where you have 13 states on the same day because

he's been a celebrity for 35 years. people know him in tennessee. people know him in alaska. people know him in minnesota. n a way they don't know rubio or ted cruz or. he was on a prime time reality tv show 12for 11 years. >> you're right but it would take hundreds of millions of dollars which no candidate thought they had to make up for tha that. i think you're only going do it by going on jimmy kimmel. doing a satellite tour with local tv stations. you have to have a message that competes with trump's. you have to take on trump's message and do in the the news immediate media. >> haven't we seen states where you're in massachusetts or

talking about georgia or oklahoma, states where nobody's been. trump seems to have a bigger advantage than in those states where they were campaigning together? >> well, but i don't think that was because of paid media, that's because of the grass-roots campaigning where people got to meet people face to face. >> my point is now that we pass the states that are closely held and you're holding big rallies and the story everyday -- trump's story is going to be his massive rally everyday. i don't know what rubio will be or what cruz's will be. it just seems like all the advantages shift to trump becauseit's -- >> it's a mile wide and inch deep. >> but not by straining your schedule to raise $3 million that won't go very far. you can spend that in texas alone. the way to combat it is earned media. that gets you coverage in 50

states rather than thinking you can raise enough to make up for years of "the apprentice." it's not worth it. it's several million dollars. it will go in a heart beat over those states. >> so when you're talking raising money, you look at the messag message, here's a comparison. rubio is the youthful boy wizard harry potter and donald trump is voldemort. in a letter yesterday, the conservative solutions pac challenged the notion trump is unstoppable. their reasoning, trump hag as claim to one-third of the republican vote but that share will not grow as the gop field shrinks and once the field does, the remaining voters coalesce around rubio who will beat trump. so the memo compares trump to voldemort and the other remaining gop candidates are --

what are those things? or cruxes? >> or cruxes. >> objects that preserve the immortality of voldemort until they're destroyed one by one. the memo did include the following caveat, note, we are not calling donald trump evil. [ laughter ] >> come on! you call him the haharry potter equivalent of -- i have to say, voe voldemort was a far more frightening comparison. >> don't compare him to "harry potter." it might remind people of how youthful he is. richard haass, thank you so much. >> we're addressing in trump wear this morning, trying to get a position in the administration. >> nick and meacham, stay with us. still ahead on "morning joe," house majority leader kevin mccarthy is here in the studio. he says the republican nominee has to have an optimistic agenda

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>> i like marco rubio, he's a good friend. however, i saw him being destroyed by chris christie and if you think that that's all they're going to get, bhaj the clinton/obama machine are going do to him. chris christie is just a bully. the clinton/obama machine with the media are going slice his throat. because that's how ruthless they are. and we need somebody who's willing to fight back. >> well, that was kind of graphic. >> yeah, this morning has been -- >> kind of graphic. >> -- strange. >> kidney stones shooting out, slicing throats. come on, kids. >> let's stop. it's the morning. that was republican congressman raul labrador explaining why he picked ted cruz over marco rubio after his first choice rand paul dropped out. joining us now, house republican majority leader kevin mccarthy of california. please don't be so graphic.

>> kevin, what do you think of the state of the republican race right now. tell it to us straight. is panic setting in yet? >> not panic. but this feels like -- i'm if california. this feels like the special election when arnold schwarzenegger went on the "tonight show," i was in the state assembly at the time, i was the republican leader, there's a lot of similarities even down the fact that they replaced trump with arnold on "the apprentice." so it's a movement where people have not felt it. they think they didn't see it coming and it's just overtaken. people are fed up with everything that has gone on so they want to see a fundamental change. and that's what we're seeing in the polls. >> nicolle, does that sound familiar? >> and keeping with this idea of cleaning house, that was arnold's message, he campaigned with brooms. >> we're not going to take it anymore, twisted sister, i think trump uses that. >> i called trump political chemo, that -- >> that was a harsh analogy. >> but he's the only chance of

killing the cancer that's the corrupted establishment. i'm sure in california people -- that resonates in california where people are disgusted with washington. >> it kind of resonates across the country right now, everywhere you go. >> so what do republicans behind closed doors talking about? what's the concern about this election? you say there's no panic. nothing to be afraid of? >> there's panic grent groups. >> describe that pang. >> i think people have moved -- i think it's the same panic they're probably feeling in the democratic party. they didn't think bernie would be where he's at to now. i personally believe it's down to a two-person race. the strategy -- i thought cruz probably had the best ability of his mapping out but not winning in south carolina, that's very difficult now for him. the bigger advantage is to trump. he's got to momentum. there's more than a 50% chance he's the nominee. i think that's what's setting in for a lot of people. could they get their heads around trump? >> if trump were the nominee, certainly everybody around the table this morning feels like

you, there's a better than 50% chance that he wins this thing. you think he can work with donald trump? >> oh, yeah, i think it will work with donald trump. >> do you think you can work with donald trump better than ted cruz? be honest, be honest. >> that's an unfair question because -- >> but you know exactly what ted cruz did during the government shutdown. he would come over, he would not only undercut senators he worked with, he would undercut you. i'm not being negative at all because i was a bomb thrower when i was there as well but you've got to -- i mean, you have to be -- there have to be scars there for what ted cruz did inside your caucus to undercut you and lead the republican party through a government shutdown that was devastating. >> okay. but you could play that into the fact, i think, rubio was there with him and look how many people are backing rubio. i think a lot of those tried to use that angle for themselves to run for president. i think if they became the nominee they would try to be a different person. >> so you think you can work

with cruz? >> i think i can work with anyone that comes out to be the nominee, yes. fundamentally, whoever wins the nomination wants to be successful. >> would john kasich be a good president? >> i think john kasich would be an excellent president. i think he would be -- on paper he seems like the very best. i always had this philosophy that i think governors -- it's a better training ground to be president. they can't print more money, they have to balance the budget. they pick a cabinet, they run agencies they didn't create and make them effective. and you have to make a decision at the end of the day. when you're house and senate you have to play the politics but as a governor you have to work with both sides. >> i would argue that not only if you think on paper he's the very best then why wouldn't you also think in terms of his presentation and his performance at the debates, his civility, his humanity, what hasn't been the very best about kasich? >> well, i tell you, what i felt it was personally moving when i watched -- was it the young college student get up and talk -- and then hug him. >> so why wouldn't he be the one

you get behind. >> that's the character i want in a person. look, there's a lot of people that have not become president that i think would do a very good job as president. you have to get elected. that's our system so maybe you didn't catch on fast enough, maybe you didn't engage fast enough. donald trump has taken the oxygen away from a lot of people where they don't have the opportunity and a lot of people through no fault of their own, they ran a conventional campaign when the american public does not want convention. >> let's go to mark halperin. let's talk about john kasich. one of the most impressive candidates, one of the best resumes had one of the most moving moments in south carolina and possibly the entire presidential campaign. >> absolutely. >> i've heard he's short of money. how does he make it through to home territory, which is the midwest? >> well, he's got enough money to pay the bills. i think his hope is to do well in the northeast states, vermont and massachusetts on super tuesday and then do very well in michigan where he spent a lot of time and despite the ohio

state/michigan rivalry and win the winner take all vote in ohio and as the last governor standing the leader's statement about john kasich is shared by many people that on paper he'd be the best. i've been surprised at how people are dismissing him and saying, as marco rubio does, that this is a three-man race, not a four-man race. >> isn't that outrageous? i expect the candidates to do that. i think it's outrageous that a lot of the media, especially on the right, are already demanding that john kasich get out of the race when he's not even gone to his home field yet. >> not just on the right, politico has written several stories not everyone mentioning john kasich or basically saying this is a three-person race. but with the leader when you said it's a two-person race, are you saying trump/cruz or trump/rubio? >> i see more trump/rubio. because i think cruz's whole strategy of winning, he didn't plan on trump and when you look

at going through the evangelical vote and others, he lost that. and the reason why i say that, though, rubio stumbled in new hampshire so i didn't know he was going to come back. that was actually a good win. now, don't take anything away from donald getting the delegates but rubio coming back in south carolina, that was -- >> what state can he win? rubio can't even name a state he can win. >> that's very difficult. that's why advantage goes to trump and momentum happens. >> what state can ted cruz win? >> texas. >> but he's not even sure he can win texas. >> i think this race is going to come to fruition march 15. it's winner take all. if rubio can't win florida, it's difficult. >> it's over, yeah. >> momentum matters at this time. you were right about money. you have to do things differently. the person who spent the least amount of money is leading so you have to think about how to do this? >> so if you're a down-ballot republican, which candidate do

you want at the top of the ticket in the fall? >> depends. if i'm a down-candidate republican in miami i want rubio. if i'm wanting to get independents and others they're going say trump can bring you those. it's an all different play of where you are. i think a lot of things will play into the race before we get there. a lot of people never thought trump could become the nominee but he can. you have to get your head around that. in the house we have a responsibility. we have to go lay out our agenda. our agenda anybody could capture that agenda and run with it. >> does it hurt your agenda. >> i think there are a lot of misperceptions buts that rubio would be better everywhere than, say donald trump. if i'm kelly ayotte in new hampshire, i want donald trump on the ballot because we saw what happened in new hampshire. a lot of democrats, a lot of working class independents voting for him. it's just not that simple. >> you need a candidate that will pull more than just republicans. >> how about his insults for

your speaker paul ryan. duds that make it harder for anyone in the caucus? >> i believe people become president who are optimistic conservatives. i don't think you bring more people to the table when you criticize people in that process. i think it's hard to criticize paul ryan, though, too. when you look at the big spectrum of life, this makes paul more powerful. what is paul leading the congress to do? ideas, tax reform, poverty and opportunity. and i think people will turn towards that. and whoever is the nominee is going to look to our agenda and capture it. >> congressman kevin mccarthy, thank you very much. >> thank you. up next, great video out of the white house. president obama gets a viz or from a woman who has waited for more than a century for this moment. stay with us. ♪jake reese, "day to feel alive"♪

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♪ you'll just have to miss it! ♪ yeah, you'll just have to miss it! ♪ ♪ we can't let you download... uh, no thanks. i have x1 from xfinity so... don't fall for directv. xfinity lets you download your shows from anywhere. i used to like that song. the white house has posted a video of a 106-year-old washington, d.c. resident visiting the president and the first lady for a celebration of black history month take a look. >> hi! >> how are you?

>> my gosh. that is just -- adorable. that's wonderful. sweet. all right, still ahead, a closer look at what's at stake -- that was a nice break from everything. >> so lovely. and presidents are usually cheered as much as the people that get to meet them. i'm sure the president and mrs. obama went on their day with a little good cheer. >> for sure. still ahead, a closer look at what is at stake a week from tomorrow, super tuesday, the executive editor of real clear politics joins us in just a moment. those new glasses?

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to help pay for her kids' ice time. before earning 1% cash back everywhere, every time. and 2% back at the grocery store. even before she got 3% back on gas, all with no hoops to jump through. katie used her bankamericard cash rewards credit card to stay warm and toasty during the heat of competition. that's the comfort of rewarding connections. apply online or at a bank of america near you. joining us from las vegas,

nevada, nbc news correspondent hallie jackson. hallie, a day from the caucus, eight days away from super tuesday. how are the gop candidates preparing? >> blanketing the state, me kachlt you ha -- mika. top teier candidates trying to get up here and pump up their crowds. for trump, though, history is on his side. no republican has won new hampshire and south carolina and then not gone on to win the nomination so trump's got the momentum. the question is now can his closest competitors and some in the establishment try to slow him down? on his victory lap in atlanta -- >> that's so much better. >> reporter: donald trump didn't mind the dark. >>. get those lights off! turn off the light! turn off the lights! >> reporter: demanding the lights stay off after a protester pulled the plug. trump fresh off his lights-out win in south carolina. >> such a beautiful victory. such a conclusive victory.

>> reporter: trump looking ahead to another first-place finish in nevada, perhaps unstoppable now, though his rivals are trying to. >> if you believe we need a strong contrast with the democrats -- [ applause ] -- then we welcome you aboard our team. >> reporter: but cruz's disappointing third-place finish in south carolina may mean more pressure to perform in next week's super tuesday primaries. cruz ultimately hoping for a two-man race but rubio makes three. pulling in his biggest crowd yet in tennessee, facing a few line of attack from trump who's refusing to rule out questions about rubio's eligibility for the white house. the florida senator born in the united states, his parents born in cuba. >> i'm going to spend zero time on his interpretation of the constitution with regards to eligibility. >> key to rubio's strategy? staying in the race long enough to bring together the establishment wing. >> we're still going to have a

primary, it's a smaller field this morning than it was, i smaller by one. the end of the road for jeb bush, the end of the line for now for his family's presidential political dynasty. >> tonight i am suspending my campaign. >> no! >> yes. thank you very much. >> reporter: but after that emotional speech, the scramble for his supporters and his donors and new this morning, the rnc launching a fresh attack aimed at hillary clinton for her performance in south carolina in 2008. >> the damage between the clintons and the african-americans in this country might be irreparable. >> so the republican party looking ahead to the general election. the head of the rnc reiterating that promise to back whoever the nominee, whether it's trump or cruz or rubio or whomever. this morning donald trump is doing what donald trump does, hitting twitter and bragging about his win in south carolina on saturday. check throughout tweet. he says "a number of months ago

i was not expected to win south carolina, ted cruz was, yet i won in a landslide, every group and category. win. capital letters, exclamation point. as you know when we look at the exit polling, trump won with w evangelical, people who have served in the military, people who didn't have college degrees so he does have the ability to lay claim to having seized victory in those groups. >> hallie jackson, thank you very much for that. >> nicolle, let me ask you really quickly. it's interesting. he's still hammering ted cruz. still hammering ted cruz. there are people in florida politics with great connections in florida politics that keep telling me he's not hammering marco rubio because they hear, they believe that marco rubio and trump have signed a n non-aggression pact and that rubio would be trump's vice president and i said that's crazy but you start thinking about frank luntz fluttering between marco rubio and donald trump.

>> maybe not so crazy. >> fluttering back and forth. tell me, what's the toughest thing marco -- marco rubio will not attack the front-runner. trump will not attack marco rubio. >> well, you could make that case for chris christie, too, they never attacked each other, either. >> that's different. >> donald would go after the bridge, donald would talk -- but more with a political -- listen, i don't believe that people make non-aggression pacts and certainly not donald trump who is the memeta-aggression guy. and frankly trump has called rubio soft and weak on immigration more than any other opponents. i think trump's been harsher on rubio's immigration history than cruz has. >> and trump has even questioned whether marco rubio is able to serve which i don't begin to understand. >> in relation to all of trump's other sort of brutality against his opponents he perhaps hasn't been as brutal on rubio but --

>> it's the level of aggression. >> a brutal critic. >> but everybody is saying his only opponent is rubio. >> he's picking up more of cruz's people. he's edging in on evangelicals. joining us from chicago, executive editor and co-founder of real clear politics, tom bevin, tom, good to have you on board. >> always great to talk to you, tom. let's go through the states and super tuesday. a lot of people talking about super tuesday. a lot of hosts on the sunday shows asking marco rubio and ted cruz what state they can win in. they couldn't answer. maybe you can help out. alabama. where's alabama going? >> look, southern state, heavily evangelical, a lot of people thought that was -- sets up well for ted cruz and it probably does but to your point and the point your guests were making, donald trump has done very well with evangelicals. we've seen him campaign in alabama and have huge crowds so i would suspect donald trump probably has the edge there. >> massive crowds.

alaska. >> caucus state. a little bit of a different electorate, far less evangelical. nobody is campaigning there. nobody will be running ad there is so tough to say who's ahead or knew will come out. >> trump was in arkansas a couple weeks ago. what's arkansas look like? >> arkansas, again, another state -- rubio has been there as well. great piece in the "washington post" talking about how rubio and cruz are trying to surgically pick off voters in suburbs because they can't compete with trump. his statewide appeal in these states so cruz and rubio are campaigning us in arkansas. >> so what about georgia? >> again, another state where i think a lot of delegates at stake relative on tuesday: trump ahead but also cruz and rubio are playing there, especially in the atlanta suburbs. >> last poll in georgia had trump up by 10 points over ted cruz. >> whoa. >> massachusetts. >> poll just came out showing

trump up like 43%. he's at the 50% mark. >> oh, many i gosh. >> so, again, i would suspect that he's in pretty good shape. >> there tom, is it a -- it's so funny, we hear people everyday talking about trump's limits but you start getting out of the first early states and you look to states from massachusetts to georgia to oklahoma, you see trump in the low to mid-sometimes even the high 40s with five, six people in the race. >> yeah. i mean you know, joe, look at the numbers in florida. trump is at 40%. including with jeb bush and marco in the race. so this idea his ceiling is at 35% is a fallacy. the numbers don't reflect that. as this race this rungs, we'll be able to see that more across the board if he really -- if his ceiling does bump up into the 40s. >> what about jon meacham's home state of tennessee? >> tennessee has got -- i'm not

sure what the latest polls in tennessee. i think he's up a couple point there is but it's close. oklahoma is another place that's close. cruz is actually pretty close there, as well. >> jon meacham, if if there is surprise in any state i would say the one that you are living in may be that state because republicans in tennessee, even though the electorate actually -- it was the only state that went against obama more in '12 than he did in '08, it is still the state that sent howard baker to the senate, fred thompson to the senate, bill fris to the senate and lamar alexander to the senate and bob corcoran now to the senate. conservative republicans but who are also moderate when it comes to working with democrats. >> no, it's crew, although to go to your point about the establishment's potential cluelessness on this, i was talking to one of the most senior republicans in the state who has seen polling that

actually shows trump significantly up in tennessee and then this senior republican said, but i don't know anyone who is for him. and that tells you what you need to know. >> you know, i always -- i always said what you can't find anybody now who says they're for donald trump and when we go to states where he wins by 20 points, just like you can't find anybody now that said they voted for richard nixon in 1972 despite the fact he won 49 states. >> exactly. >> it's a similar thing. let's look at texas, tom. >> last poll there i think was early this month had cruz up 5. so trump is right on his heels there and it's not a sure fire win, but again, 155 delegates at stake in texas and, you know, i would expect that would be cruz's best haul of the night on tuesday, on super tuesday. >> that would be. all right. >> and let's finish, though, nevada. not so long ago marco rubio's team was calling this his fire wall, the national review was

calling it his fire wall. what's it look look like in nevada for tomorrow night? >> trump has a solid lead. we have not a whole lot of data out of nevada, but what we do have shows trump up double digits again and looking in a very solid position. >> overall snapshot, super tuesday looks like what? >> i mean, super tuesday looks like it's setting up very well for donald trump and unless -- to the point that you started this conversation with, you know, where are these other candidates going to win? and if they are not able to win they are going to come away -- the story on next tuesday is going to be donald trump wins big, maybe even sweeps. >> wow. >> almost half the delegates, actually, half the delegates of what you need to be the republican nominee or awarded that day. tom, thank you so much. we hope you will come back. jon meachum, any final thoughts? >> it was a huge weekend when you look at the history of modern american politics. you had the embodiment of a great political family who

stepped out of the race in the midst of this trump tsunami. >> and can you talk about how personally the father, george h.w. bush, wanted his son to run and, you know, i've said privately when people were asking me if jeb wanted to run i said, well, i think he wants to run, but i also know that he knows that his father wants him in there. and i thought jeb was doing this out of a duty to family as much as he was to a duty to country. >> well, as early as '07/'08 president bush said in my hearing that he hoped jeb would run, that he thought he would be a great president and i don't think it was a matter of pressure, i think it was a sense that, you know, the father adores those sons and lord knows those sons adore that father and that's a family that's served

the country with great distinction for a long time and it's a moment i think to reflect on their service and to move on as well. >> jon meachum, thank you very much. and we will be right back. >> true measure of a man is in victory and also defeat. so in '94 floridians chose to rehire the governor, they took note of his defeated opponent who showed not merely with words but by his actions what decency and -- >> thank you, dad. to be the boss of you? (patrick 2) pretty great. (patrick 1) how about a 10% raise? (patrick 2) how about 20? (patrick 1) how about done?

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okay. up next the lights go out on donald trump. we're not saying that on the air. we'll show you how he handled the unexpected moment in his rally. plus the businessman union battle on the las vegas strip ahead of tomorrow's republican caucus in nevada. we're back in just a moment with the latest. ♪jake reese, "day to feel alive"♪ ♪jake reese, "day to feel alive"♪

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we have 179,000 illegal immigrants who are criminals. these were people -- think of it. think of it. no, they're going. they're going. they're going. boom. as much as you want to put them in our jails, they were probably sent here so that we put them in our jails because to put them in our jails -- they didn't pay the electric bill. oh, i like that much better. oh, that's so much better. those lights were brutal. do they come from the dishonest press? oh, don't turn them on. forget it. better, right? don't turn them on. don't turn the lights on, plus we save on electricity, right?

and because the lights didn't work, i won't pay the rent so we get better lighting and we don't pay the rent, right? right? no, get those lights off. off. turn them off, they're too bright. turn them off. turn them off. let's go, right? turn off the lights. turn off the lights. turn off the lights. turn them off. [ cheers and applause ] >> so much nicer. no. no. that's the way we have to negotiate for our country. oh, my lord. it's the top of the hour and it is monday and are we back here in new york? yes, we are. it's monday, february 22nd. welcome to "morning joe." with us on set we have former communications director for president george w. bush, nicolle wallace. >> how are you feeling today?

>> we were watching. >> how are you guys. >> all of us. >> we were worried about you on saturday night. >> i had fun on saturday night. >> you didn't look like we were having fun. >> i was having a good time. >> it looked like a difficult time. >> which part? >> the entire part. you are gritting your teeth. >> oh, no, saturday was -- listen, this stuff is -- if you can detach yourself emotionally it's riveting, right? >> right. >> so when do you think that will happen for you? by august? >> you know, i've talked openly about my ten-step process toward acceptance, my parents are, you know, big trump people so i try to feel their pleasure in the twists and turns this campaign is taking, but as a republican it's really an eye opening process to see a guy that sort of takes a -- i mean, you and i talked about this on the air saturday night -- see a guy that has come so far toward the far left wing of the democratic party said among 9/11 prevail even among military republican voters in south carolina. it's a mind bender.

it's amazing. >> what's fascinating is he prevailed especially among military voters. >> he prevailed among everybody. >> yeah. >> dominant in every group. >> military voters, too. willie, there are a lot of people that went to fight over the past 10, 15 years and you would think they may have been offended or felt a little more defensive of their former commander in chief, george w. bush, but they did not and i wonder if that's not just an indictment from the men and women who fought the war of 15 years of endless wars. >> yeah, that could be part of it and part of it is maybe they didn't think he was indicting them as military men and women but the leadership that took them to those wars. but it goes to, again, i mean, it's the military question, he won evangelicals big, is he a big evangelical, no, of course he's not but he's projecting strength and the military thinks he will step up for them, evangelicals think he will defend them, not in any specific granular way in the big over

arching campaign which is strength. >> what he said yesterday on healthcare, he said stuff on healthcare that would make it tough for a democrat to get elected let alone a republican, he effectively backed into the single payer thing and no one should be without healthcare and so on and so forth. he lives in his own special bubble. >> again, and planned parenthood. >> if a republican told me in the deep south they were going to say planned parenthood does good things, that would be the kiss of death for anybody else. >> well, we also have managing editor of bloomberg politics mark halperin with us as well. let's get started. tomorrow is the republican caucus in nevada, but many of the candidates are also looking ahead to super tuesday in the so-called sec primary. 595 delegates are at stake in 11 states a week from tomorrow with more than half of those in the south. in atlanta yesterday in front of a crowd of 6,000 people donald trump took multiple victory laps after his south carolina win.

>> listen to this. we won with everything. we won with women. i love the women. we won with women. we won with men. i'd rather win with women to be honest, but that's all right. we won with evangelicals, like unbelievable. un -- we won with the military. we won -- oh, oh -- we won with highly educated, pretty well educated and poorly educated, but we won with everything. tall people, short people, fat people, skinny people. just won. you know, these politicians that i'm dealing with, i mean, they are up on the stage, these people, they don't have a crew. some are nice guys, some i don't like, some i do. once they leave, they leave. good luck, we think you're

wonderful. how do you like them? wonderful people. they're great. >> the only category i do badly is in my personality and that's okay. who cares? and do you know what, do you want to know something, i'm a better person than the people i'm running against. i see it. let me tell you. >> all right. mark halperin, i'm not exactly sure where to begin there. but i think i will -- let's talk about one area of all the things that he said that actually does have an impact moving forward, it's something that chris salizza he washington post wrote about yesterday. about ted cruz's evangelical problem. ted cruz is so dependent on evangelical voters, make up three out of four of his voters, maybe four out of five of his voters and yet you have donald trump beating him with evangelicals in the deep south. that's -- that certainly limits cruz's way forward, does it not?

and what does the cruz camp think they can do to get around that? >> well, we're going to know a week from tomorrow when all those southern states vote. if you look at the current polling and current momentum you would say that ted cruz is going to have trouble, maybe even in texas, his home state. look, the three guys long they can stop trump now all believe that they can stop him if they are one-on-one, but ted cruz in the same position as marco rubio with his demographic and john kasich with his, which is they don't have him one-on-one. so i think ted cruz could polling -- there's limited polling on it but some polling that suggests that he could do better with evangelicals and other conservatives, tea partiers if he had trump one-on-one, but he doesn't. >> and why should marco rubio or ted cruz get out of the race when they have been so close in all three contests? and as far as john kasich, people are -- you know, your usual suspects that are trying to clear the field are already saying john kasich needs to get out of the race. the strength of john kasich

doesn't -- we don't even see that until we get to the midwest so kasich is not going anywhere, either. >> none of them are and i've talked to all three camps about where they think things stand. again, i think the central miscalculation is by super tuesday and two weeks later trump may have not just won a lot of states for more momentum, but he may have so many delegates that it's mathematically difficult to see how anybody could stop him, particularly if he does win those winner take all states. it is a puzzle for the party because, again, look at the limited polling there is, all three of them seem to do very well, particularly cruz and rubio, one-on-one against trump, but he is very well positioned in these upcoming states and to go back to your question about the evangelical vote, i mean, ted cruz has to figure out how he couldn't beat trump or rubio in south carolina and yet somehow he's going to beat them in places like arkansas, tennessee, georgia and alabama, virginia, oklahoma where trump's strength is going to be, i

think, at this point every bit as much as it was in south carolina where he won decisively. >> nicolle, there are very smart people that are writing about how donald trump is not going to win and how rubio and cruz are going to win and yet if you ask ted cruz where are you going to win? are you going to guarantee a texas win? no. he would not guarantee a win in his home state. you ask marco rubio what's the first state you can win. >> florida. >> he brings up florida. that's worse than the rudy guiliani strategy because that's even further -- >> right. >> ted cruz has won a caucus. >> right. >> i'm trying to figure out -- >> no, listen -- >> the calculations how do you win by not -- they're going to win without winning. >> they would be making extraordinary history, right, if anyone were to dethrone trump at this point and i think the these sis that they all write around, the national review piece to

that fengt, reading the "wall street journal" in morning which makes that case is this fantasy that they are on a one on one race. i talked to strategists not aligned with any campaigns still in the race and they all said the only way to stop trump is for this to become a two-man race. >> can you explain one other fantasy and trump actually said something on stage in a mocking way and everybody laughed, but he actually struck at a truth there. there is an assumption that trump is only getting 35% of the vote. that means 65% of the electorate are against him. that's not how politics works. it's not how politics has ever worked. >> rubio said that yesterday. >> really? >> i've been hearing that for so long and yet you actually had coming out of south carolina, south carolinians believing he was the most likely to beat hillary clinton. it's just -- >> and rubio on his heels in that category only, that was the actually the one bright spot for rubio that night. yeah, listen, these -- you can find a poll to really sort of

affirm -- actually, mark mckinnon makes this point in last night's episode of the circus, but you can find a poll to affirm anything, but you have to look at 80 years of political history. there has never been someone who has stacked up a fifth, a third and a second place that's become our nominee. could history be made? it certainly could. >> everything is upside down this election. >> the cruz thing is confounding because he was running as the character guy and actually thought that that was his path and trump and carson -- i mean, there is a fascinating coalition that is eating away at cruz's character argument. >> that's what we said yesterday. >> the dirty trick in iowa, the -- you know, his voters are not buying what he's selling. so i think the biggest red flag to me is hanging over the cruz campaign which is running the most effective campaign operationally. >> just like trump disqualified jeb by calling him a low energy candidate he has been calling ted cruz a liar nonstop. >> every day for two weeks.

>> he is a liar, he is a bad person, how can you be an evangelical when you are a liar, he is a cheater, look what he did to poor ben carson. >> to your point i think cruz has hit a dead end after south carolina. if he couldn't do better in south carolina, then where is he going to do better at this point? >> i'm sorry, mika. i was going to say you have now establishment republicans, people in the press saying we have to stop trump now. if we don't stop him now it's going to be too late and that means getting him on a one on one. which of those two candidates, marco rubio or ted cruz do you ask to get out of the race and why would they ever? >> i have bad news for the republican establishment. if you were going to stop him i will tell them what i said to ed rollins when we were talking during the mike huckabee thing. if you're going to stop john mccain because he called and asked i said you either stop him in south carolina or it's off to the races because after south carolina everything picks up, everything is fast, whoever has the momentum going out of those three states, iowa, new hampshire, south carolina, they ride it on a rocket through all

these states that just come at you 1,000 miles an hour. >> he is also ahead in the map we put up -- there's not a single state poll i have seen in any of those states coming up where trump is behind. >> still ahead on "morning joe" it's a game of who said it, quote, we are not going to let people die in squaller because we are republicans. the answer, donald trump. we are going to get zeke people mule's take on how the republican front runner differs from the rest of the field when it comes to healthcare. but first rattner explains how south carolina's struggling economy drove trump's win. >> that sounds harsh. >> you're watching "morning joe." >> steve, what's your middle name. >> lawrence. >> that's lovely. >> coming up, finance ear stevens lawrence rattner will tell us something blah, blah, blah. we will be right back. man: dear mr. danoff, my wife and i are now participating in your mutual fund. we invested in your fund

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washington pulitzer prize winning editorial writer for "the washington post" jonathan k par. the state of south carolina's job market may have affected voters decisions on saturday i mean early on because sometimes we go a little bit -- >> sometimes we do them at 9:15. >> there's that. but you take a look at south carolina voters on a number of levels. >> okay. here we go. >> okay. yes. >> there we go. so we talked a lot about how trump won pretty much across the board, he actually i think did lose among post graduates, but looks at a couple groups where trump did well, those with a high school education or less, trump got 45% of the vote, well above his 32% or so average and rubio did particularly badly. let's look at people with lower incomes below $50,000 where he did a bit better than his --

that his overall average and, again, rubio did particularly badly. and so you get to the question of what's going on in south carolina with their economy and with jobs. so if you take a look at what's happened in south carolina to manufacturing jobs, and this chart goes all the way back to the year 2000, but what you can see starting at zero as a baseline you can see that the country as a whole has lost 29% of its manufacturing jobs and that's after the so-called manufacturing serenaissance tha obviously wasn't much of it one as you can see here. you can see south carolina lost 31% of its manufacturing jobs. if you are in a situation where you don't have a high school diploma and where you're earning less than $50,000 a year and 30% of your manufacturing jobs disappear you are in a state with lower median income, in a state with higher unemployment it's not totally shocking that someone who is talking about trade, closing the borders,

dealing with these jobs would resonate. >> and by the way, somebody brought this up last week, that blue collar evangelicals were more likely to go for trump than they were for cruz and this is a great example of where -- and then the person said and who will be voting among the evangelicals in south carolina? blue collar evangelicals, big advantage for trump. this is a good example of actually where you are economically even trumps where you go to church on sunday and the blue collar evangelicals flooded toward donald trump. >> if you want to see why trump's trade position has so much resonance, just take a look at what's happened nationally to manufacturing in certain categories. textile and a perils which used to be south carolina single biggest industry, 70% of the jobs are gone. if you look at furniture which is more in north carolina, the neighboring state, 40% of the jobs are gone. and so on. only in places like food are we

kind of holding our own for obvious reasons, you don't move food around the world so easily. so, again, trump's anti-trade, 35% tariffs appeal to lower income, less educated workers has a lot of resonance. >> is that changing in south carolina, steve, at all? when you fly in charleston i'm sure you guys saw it boeing has a massive construction project under way, you hear about bmw, but maybe not enough to make up for these losses. >> this is one of the great myths, they have aerospace jobs and foreign war companies and they do but they are not nearly enough to overcome the loss of the manufacturing jobs. by the way, the person who has that blue collar education, just has high school, he is not going to be putting jet engines together in south carolina, he is going to be unemployed in all likelihood and voting for trump. >> in greenville on a friday and saturday night you are more likely to hear german spoken on the streets of greenville. that it's crazy, a lot of people

actually coming into the united states and working at some of these higher tech jobs. jonathan, let's talk about the democratic side, how big was hillary's win on saturday night? >> really big. i think what it did was it calmed down a lot of people, a lot of her supporters, certainly who were afraid going up right until the polls closed that she was going to lose nevada and the impact that would have on her campaign not only going into south carolina but going forward. you could hear a collective sigh of relief from hillary clinton supporters and then you look at the papers today and there are all sorts of stories about how it's going to be from this point going forward difficult for senator sanders in terms of delegates to catch up with her. i think we showed on "way too early" senator sanders at the black church in south carolina and the difficulty he had there in expecting with

african-american voters. there is a story in the "new york times" this morning also highlighting this problem that the senator has. so you take that plus hillary clinton's win and the momentum that she gets from that and, you know, the future for senator sanders doesn't look as bright as it did before the nevada caucuses. >> it definitely does not. look at where she's headed to, the south carolina primary in which african-americans will likely make up more than half of the electorate. and the clinton campaign has released two new ads including this one with morgan freeman. >> she says their names. >> trayvon martin. shot to death. >> den tray hamilton. sandra bland and makes their mothers' fight for justice her own. she speaks for a city poisoned by indifference. >> we need action now. >> and stands with the president against those who would undo his achievements. just like she's always stood with us.

>> i think she's poised to do very well in south carolina. >> that's a very -- nicolle, that's a very strong ad. >> incredible ad. she certainly looked like she got some of her mojo back watching her victory speech saturday night and, you know, i think that the democratic process with their super delegates means that the democratic race ends a lot faster than the republican race. i was thinking can you imagine if republicans had super delegates and they were somehow stacked behind -- or against trump. >> i know. >> the democratic process is so much more corruptable in the minds of sanders revolution. >> it is more corrupt i believe. you look at the iowa caucus, they intentionally try to make it as -- well, as muddy as possible. no transparency there because it is a more corruptable system for the front runner. >> i don't disagree with any of that but at the end of the day

what jonathan said what happened in nevada was really important, as important as how trump did in south carolina. >> more so. >> and it's really hard to see what sanders' path is at this point with or without super delegates. >> i think it's fair to ask the question as to whether it's even possible for him at all. i mean, i don't see -- does anyone see a pathway for him? >> let's see what happens on super tuesday. he is going to have to start doing better with black voters and we'll see what happens on super tuesday. but he can't -- he can't give up a lot of losses on super tuesday. we'll see. there are always surprises. >> coming up on "morning joe," back to the drawing board for bernie sanders. one top political journalist in nevada explains why harry reid is at the center of the sanders loss and why donald trump could easily walk away with a silver stake. >> i think rubio will surprise a lot of people. >> really? >> more "morning joe" when we return. was engineered...

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it's 30 past the hour. we're back with steve rattner, nicolle wallace, joining us now in columbia, south carolina, msnbc political correspondent kasie hunt. casey, walk us through where the democrats stand ahead of south carolina and super tuesday. >> reporter: good morning. as we know this path narrowed incredibly for bernie sanders after that nevada loss to hillary clinton. a lot of it has to do with the map that he's now staring down

on super tuesday. south carolina, he's here today, he's going to a prayer breakfast this morning but they have all but written it off. her advantage with african-american voters here is so -- she's just so far ahead that there's not really a way for him to compete. so instead you are looking at super tuesday. step back for a second and look at the map. if you are the sanders campaign you're looking at massachusetts, colorado, minnesota, places where you can potentially win, but you have to stack those against the south. we've talked a lot about the sec primary on the republican side but it's just as formidable on the democratic side and largely in favor of hillary clinton. you have texas, alabama, georgia, all of those states have huge delegate totals and the democratic process is such that they are all proportional. if sanders is going to ultimately challenge clinton in the long run, he not only has to beat her, he has to rack up delegate margins. with states that are so big that favor her where you have more delegates at stake even if he runs the table in all of these

states where they feel like they have some strength the math just gets to be really insurmountable really quickly. they are saying that they want to look a little farther on the map to michigan which votes on march 8th. they think they have a chance there, we saw that huge rally he held in michigan, but again, in many ways this is the flip side of where president obama was in 2008 against clinton. she started running into this very problem where the delegate lead just became insurmountable, that's where she is now. >> all right. kasie hunt, thank you very much. looks like nevada was such a turning point for hillary clinton. >> it really was and it's actually coming up for the republicans. let's bring in right now from las vegas msnbc contributor columnist, john ralston. john, let's start with the democratic side. you know, i predicted harry reid was going to win in 2010 because of the unions and in a race that we expected him to win he seemed to be the one man in american

politics who is endorsement and whose connection still could move elections. you say it happened again on saturday. >> yeah, it really did, joe. harry reid came back to the state, saw that hillary clinton was in trouble. of course, he's publicly neutral, but i think he tipped his hand when he called the union, said you've got to get your people out to organize. remember, the union was neutral this time, back in 2008 they had endorsed obama. so they did. >> so, john, that makes harry reid such a force? i mean, you know, he is mocked and ridiculed in the national media, they haven't been especially kind to him from time to time when quite frankly he didn't deserve a whole lot of kindness, but again, when it comes to ground game he is a man you have to respect and admire it. what is it about his connection with these unions? >> well, you use the terms respect and admire. the term i would use is fear. he doesn't come across that way because he doesn't have a lot of

charisma, i'm being kind here this morning, but behind the scenes he is a ruthless force, he is a guy who the unions need in washington for a lot of things, especially the culinary union which represents almost 60,000 of the workers right here on the strip where i'm standing. so when he makes a phone call it means something. he is the one guy in this state and democratic politics that if he wants something he's going to get it. >> wow. >> there was a cnn poll on the democratic side that came out that wildly overstated bernie sanders' support. i think we have the same thing on the republican side that is suggesting that donald trump is way ahead. isn't this a state that marco rubio, nevada, has invested a great deal in, the national review even calling it his fire wall right before this process began? >> marco rubio has a very good organization here, he has reached out to the mormon community which you guys know was a big factor in 2012 and 2008 in the caucus here. mitt romney who is a mormon affected that a bit, but rubio

was a mormon for a cup of coffee here while he was a kid so that has helped him. he has endorsements from prominent mormons but, and this is a huge but, you mention the following here. the democratic turn out was lower than what it was thought to be or at least lower than what it was in 2008. the republican turn out here in 2012 was 33,000 voters, that's 7% or 8%. no one expects it to be much more. joe, you may be right, maybe trump's strength is overstated but the data that i've seen indicates it's not and more importantly what rubio and cruz are saying privately, their campaigns, indicates to me that they think what is going on here is what happened in south carolina which is a pitched battle for second place. >> john, this term ground game, we hear it over and over again, ground game, ground game, ground game. against donald trump how important really is ground game, even a state like nevada? >> well, listen, trump has changed all the rules, right? he didn't even know what the

term ground game meant until after iowa. i'm still not sure that he does. rubio and cruz have good ground games here but the question is does it make any difference when trump could come here and tweet to his 6 million followers and that's his ground game, he will have three rallies here, two by himself and one with his son don jr. here in the next 36 hours. that could be enough to begin upturn out. when you are only going to be 35,000, maybe 40,000 people trump doesn't need that many of those to do what he has done everywhere else. i still believe as long as you have three, four, five candidates on the ballot he is going to get his and the rest will divide up the rest and that's a real problem. >> john ralston, thank you so much. i still think with all of his advantages this is going to be a big, big night for marco rubio. still ahead donald trump promises private healthcare plans -- >> don't laugh at marco rubio. >> i'm not laughing at marco rubio. >> don't laugh at marco rubio. he's got a built in advantage.

this is his fire wall. >> he should get at least 60% of the vote, right? >> no. >> do you keep that schiff under the disc. >> this is his fire wall, the national review said it. >> say it without smiling. >> no. this is seriously -- >> say it without smiling. >> you guys are all laughing. what are they doing? you are a funny guy. >> you say it without smiling. >> you are not letting me talk. this is marco rubio's home. it was his second home, he lived there, he was a mormon there and he invested there. >> your eyes are smiling into they're not. national review said forget the early states, this is his fire wall. >> you're smiling. >> it's going to be a big night for him. donald trump pronl ses private healthcare plans that will be much less than obamacare. one of the architects of the affordable care act, dr. zeke emanuel may be excited to hear now. dr. emanuel joins us next.

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do you think that it should be a law that anybody who can afford health insurance has to have it? >> i think no. i think it's going to be up to them. okay? i want it to be up to them, but i'm really talking about people that can't afford it. we are not going to let people die in some -- in squaller because we are republicans. okay? that's part of the problem with the republicans where somehow they got fed into this horrible position. we're going to take care of people. but, no, people don't have to have it. we're going to have great plans, a lot less expensive than obamacare, private, there are going to be lots of different options. we will have a lot of different options. right now you have no options do you know why, because the insurance company controlled obama because they gave him a lot of money. that's why you have lines around the states and you can't get competitive bidding. >> joining us now former white house adviser for health policy and vice provost at the

university of pennsylvania dr. ezekiel emanuel. >> good to be here. >> i do want to say it must be very interesting despite the fact that you have a lot of problems with what he might be saying about insurance and shopping, the obama administration, it is fascinating that you have a republican front runner. >> exactly. >> that has spent the last couple weeks in really conservative states -- first of all, in new hampshire, live free or die going, no, i'm not going to say that i won't support medicaid expansion. >> right. >> and he angered a lot of conservatives, won by 20 points. comes to south carolina still defending planned parenthood and he still wherever he goes -- and here he goes, republicans have to stop being this party of no. it's fascinating. >> it is fascinating. he is for universal coverage, that's what it says when the poor are getting to get healthcare, he wants universal coverage so he is going back to the republicans of the '60s and '50s who wanted universal coverage, richard nixon, for example. he is for medicare, negotiating

drug prices, not a very republican kind of position. he is for medicare and medicaid. >> expansion of medicaid. >> yes. so he has been -- his intuitions are that way. now, he doesn't have a lot of advice, he doesn't understand the healthcare system but i think his intuitions are driving to a universal system that is private competition, subsidizing and helping people, poor people, buy and get into it. now, that has been a republican tradition for a long time. >> i was going to say that actually, nicolle, that sounds like a republican version of obamacare. i mean, in a positive way. this is what john shat tick and others and i were saying. if you're going to have universal healthcare let's have it driven with competition with the drug companies, the hospitals and insurance companies. >> it's a lot better message than repeal, repeal, repeal because all people hear at a political level is take away, take away. i've always said that the message repeal was a wrong one. when an actual person, especially someone sort of on the edge of financial security

hears you're taking something away from me. if donald trump asks you to a surprise him and help him would you help him? i know -- >> if he asks -- if what you're saying is true -- >> what is the market driven response? what's the market driven response to universal healthcare? >> first of all, i would inform donald that we have these exchanges and in the exchanges are private plans like aetna, united, the blue cross and blue shield plans competing for people. i think they are what he likes and, again, i've always believed republicans should like the exchanges and they were invented by republicans at the heritage foundation. i think he's going back to that fundamental intuition, we should have competition among private health plans and we should allow people to choose and that will bring prices down. let's remember in the last five years healthcare costs while they have gone up have gone up slower than they have in previous times partially because of this exchange competition and he is right, we have some data in the exchanges the more competitive you have the more

you get price control. so i think it's a reasonable approach. the problem is he is not sophisticated about it and "politico" had a story today, i don't know if you saw it, that no health expert in the country that they surveyed had been contacted by the trump people to advise them. >> it seems like he's unpacking obamacare from healthcare. what he's describing is not all that different from obamacare, is it? >> correct. i think you're -- again, what he's describing is a lot of -- is my good friend jonathan cone at hufk ton post said a lot of word salad. get to the intuition, which is people ought to have coverage -- >> in south carolina they word salad they ate it all. >> i think his intuitions are fundamentally american. everyone should have coverage, we should have private competition to keep costs down, medicare and medicaid are there -- >> for conservatives like me i always say what's so irritating is we spend more money per

patient than any country on the planet. we should be able to do it more efficiently. i will say also there aren't a lot of specifics in what donald said but when he started talking about -- even though the numbers are wildly overblown in his speeches when he talks about drug companies compete -- and this is the dealmaker in him which is we buy more drugs than any other consumer on the planet. why don't we negotiate good deals? that's good word salad. delicious word salad. >> what i think is appealing about him is his intuitions. >> intuition. >> what people resonate with. the specific policy stuff he is not there and this election is not about those specific policy issues, they are about the big picture and the big picture is it hasn't worked and let's try to get it to work and there i think he does resonate with a lot of people and he does as you point out resonate with the affordable care act he just doesn't know it yet. >> can you come back in a couple days? >> absolutely. >> we'd love to have you here.

>> absolutely. >> zeke emanuel. thank you very much. good to have you on. i'm surprised. word salad. still ahead, marco rubio's fire wall is in evidence darks with you some are saying donald trump may be poised to win nevada, but he may see something else at risk on the vegas strip. >> we will have that story coming up. pitch you investment opportunities. i've got a fantastic deal for you- gold! with the right pool of investors, there's a lot of money to be made. but first, investors must ask the right questions and use the smartcheck challenge to make the right decisions. you're not even registered; i'm done with you! i can...i can... savvy investors check their financial pro's background by visiting smartcheck.gov

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just look at nevada, it lines up for rubio. >> i think it does. >> he is from there, he was a

mormon. >> oh, my goodness. >> your eyes are laughing. >> no, they're not. >> your eyes are laughing at him. that's not nice. >> this is the state, he is going to win. >> no one has done a better job at turning second and third place finishes into momentum than rubio. you have to give him credit for that. >> wait a minute. >> he is not going to have to do that anymore. i think he could win -- >> your eyes are laughing. >> it's his fire wall. >> you're laughing. >> tomorrow night will be an exciting night. business has gotten complicated for donald trump ahead of tomorrow's caucus in nevada. it has nothing to do with his campaign but everything to do with the group that represents trump hotel employees. joining us from las vegas msnbc correspondent jacob soeb approve. jacob. >> reporter: political observers in nevada say donald trump looks to be in a great position to win the nevada caucus tomorrow night but trump might be about to lose another battle in nevada with the workers at his own las vegas hotel who voted to unionize back in december of 2015 joining

workers in 98% of other hotels in the strip and downtown vegas and trump's hotel is fighting back. i spent the night there at the hotel to find out more. good morning. welcome to the penthouse at the trump international hotel las vegas. pretty nice living room, right? i had a great night here last night. what a view. check out the stats fear out there. and also i got an amazing kitchen where i had my cove this morning and in this bedroom i had one of the best night sleeps ever. and here is the bathroom. i don't think i've ever been in a more amazing bathroom especially because you can watch msnbc in the mirror. it's a nice hotel no doubt about it and donald trump has generated an enormous amount of enthusiasm and support for his presidential campaign in nevada but the workers at his own hotel aren't as thrilled with him. >> so he guys work at the trump hotel? >> yes. yes. >> what do you do over there? >> housekeeping. >> you guys, the workers in the hotel, made a vote to unionize

with the culinary workers. how come? >> the other casinos and hotel they make like $17 and we make $14.40 and it's a big difference. >> per hour? >> per hour. >> the management at the hotel, mr. trump and his partner pushed back. how did that make you feel? >> it scared me. >> mr. trump is coming to town for the election. if you saw him what would you say to him. >> had i, mr. trump, you are a great businessman. you say i want to make america great. please, you do hotel trump the same. >> he's saying make america great again but first make the hotel great again. >> yes, we need the contract for the hotel. >> so, guys, the culinary union announced yesterday that the national labor relations board has recommended trump's appeal of the union's vote which is not just about salary but also about pensions and even uniforms to be

thrown out and for the workers' vote to stand. trump hotel can choose to appeal this again but the union has asked to do negotiations while he is in town for the caucus and the trump organization sent the following note to msnbc and myself, they said, quote, the hearing officer's recommendations erroneously disregarded the severe dis conduct taken by union agents which impacted a close election. we will continue our fight for a fair election for our valued associates many vigorous ri o oppose union representation. this is not expected to affect trump's republican caucus support but the fight with one of vegas' most powerful unions is an unwanted distraction a day before the caucus. >> jacob, thanks so much. do you know who that has who help? >> oh, my gosh. >> who do you think that helps? >> no. >> the pope. >> no, this is really bad news for trump, isn't it? >> i think if you win a fight

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nicolle, you're smiling with your eyes. >> nick, what did you learn? i think i learned that marco rubio might have a fire wall in nevada. might. might have a fire wall. >> you read national review as well? >> i do. >> that's their take. >> also money and politics. we're arguing on the impact it's having on this race. >> it's had a huge impact but not the way we expected. >> it's opposite day. >> do you have a story coming up on that? >> yes. >> nicolle, what did you learn? >> i learned that sometimes you can be talking with your mouth but almost always laughing at me with your eyes. >> what is this? >> you do do that. >> sounds like a hallmark card. >> did you learn anything? >> i did. >> i want to hear what it is. >> i was just talking to alex. i just learned from alex that nevada -- this is really freaky, but i had no idea, nevada is french for rubio. there it is.

it's his. did you know that, nicolle? >> i don't know anything anymore. >> look it up on wikipedia. >> i'm going to put an end to this. steve kornacki picks up our coverage live in las vegas right now. have a great day, everybody. >> have a great day. and good morning. i'm steve kornacki live in las vegas. 24 hours away now from the big republican caucuses here in the silver state, in nevada, as well as the next contest for the democrats, that's coming up toward the end of the week -- at the end of the week, in fact, saturday south carolina democratic primary now on the republican side we are down to just a five-way race. if you are donald trump's decisive victory in south carolina on saturday night republicans are shifting their focus on tomorrow's show down in nevada and then to the big prize next week. super actuals, more than 600