we'll be able the to surpass those numbers, but we'll see >> that's been the story on the democratic side. '08 set the standard in terms of turnout. amanda loveday in south carolina, thank you for joining p us. that's going to do it for us this hour from the las vegas strip. i'm steve kornacki and "mtp daily" starts now. >> if it's tuesday, it's the biggest obstacle to stopping donald trump. it's not marco rubio, it's not ted cruz, it's not the nevada caucuses, it's a guy from ohio. the math adds up and trump has to count on a certain governor of ohio sticking around. this is "mtp daily" and it starts right now. good evening from washington and welcome to the nevada caucus night, which may take a week, edition of "mtp daily."

we'll get to the nevada republicans in a little bit. they head to their caucus sites in just a few hours. and we are only one week away, though, from the first really big delegate haul of this election. and that's, of course, super tuesday. just a few hours ago, ted cruz summed up the scorched earth circus that is the republican contest right now. >> millions of attack ads and mud slung this way and that way and the other way. i don't like your face. it's been a strange cycle. a little bit like watching "pt barnum." >> and right on cue, trump slammed cruz moments later. >> you meet some bad people. this guy, ted cruz, is the single biggest liar i've ever dealt with in my life. i mean it, i've never seen -- he will lie about anything. and you meet some -- i've met much tougher people than ted cruz. he's like a baby compared to some of the people i have to deal -- he is like a little baby. soft, weak, a little baby, by

comparison. but for lying, he's the best i've ever seen. >> well, door's open to some of the nevada caucus site in just a few hours, yes, sum. it's an erratic schedule that it goes on tonight, which is why it's going to take a while to figure out who won. trump is, i guess, the heavy favorite to win. we say that because we're not quite sure if it's going to be a primary-like turnout or whether the organization is going to matter much. but if he does win, it will be the third straight contest and it could be a blowout, if you believe the one poll that has been sitting out there following north carolina and and south carolina. so it begs the question, is trump unstoppable? well, some republicans don't think he's unstoppable yet. we're going to walk through one possible stop-trump scenario, that some high-level republicans are buzzing about. right now things are looking increasingly desperate for trump's opponent. according to our new nbc/survey monkey online poll, trump holds a double-digit lead nationally, but he is sitting at that sort of stubborn ceiling he's been at some time, 35 to 36%.

cruz and rubio are at each other's throats for the title of trump alternative and kasich is the big wild card. he could be the biggest impediment to stopping trump. i'll explain. over the past 36 hours, we've seen a flood of establishment republicans, desperately throw their support behind rubio. that includes even a koch brothers confidant. the most senior republican in the senate, orrin hatch. longtime indiana senator, dan coats. arkansas governor, asa hutch hutchins hutchinson. the party's 1996 presidential nominee, bob dole. just to name a few. and today rubio pleaded with republicans to narrow this field and to do it fast. >> i'm repeating the this over and over again, but it's true, 70% to 65% of republicans have already decided they don't want donald trump as their nominee. as long as that vote is being divided up among multiple people, it's good for donald. that's not going to continue much longer. every time this race narrows, we pick up support and when that happens, we'll win. >> so, here is one stop-trump scenario, that some high-level republicans are already taking a serious look at. so it begins with using south carolina, historically a good

bellwether, as a baseline for what we could see coming up starting one week from today on super tuesday, when a whopping 595 delegates are up for grabs. nearly half the total needed to win the nomination. of course, this will be proportional on super tuesday. in south carolina, trump won essentially a third of the vote. cruz was just behind him with 22%. bush and kasich each got eight and carson got seven. but remember, bush the now up. that should benefit rubio. let's crunch the numbers. if we assume that rubio will pick up the lion's share of bush supporters, to the tune of 75 to 80%, here's what you could see ton super tuesday. we should caveat this, it is a very rough estimate and the state-by-state delegate rules are tricky business, but here's how super tuesday could look. if trump performs like he did in south carolina, he'll pick up roughly another 200 delegates, is t 196 based on these calculations. rubio would pick up 173, if you

factor in the bump he would get from trump being out of the race. that gives trump a lead over rubio, not insurmountable. but here's where john kasich comes play. if he dropped out tonight, rubio supporters think they would pick up most of his supporters. if you crunched the number again and if rubio were to consolidate most of the support from bush and kasich, then numbers do get better for rubio and it puts him in a position where he can actually win the delegate math over trump on super tuesday. and that's with cruz still in the race. he would start to chip away at trump's lead in delegates, but this scenario is what rubio supporters and establishment republicans are hoping to see. if rubio can consolidate support like this, then that's his ticket to winning the nomination and that's the establishment's ticket with somehow stopping trump. but there are a ton of ifs in

here, obviously. today, we saw kasich grapple with the state of this race at a town hall rally in georgia. take a look at the questions he got. >> john kasich, when are you going to live out your purpose thursday night, when you have the national stage, what are you going to do to stick it to trump, stick it to rubio -- hey, hey, and live out your purpose? >> first of all, i don't know if my purpose is to be president. in terms of sticking it to somebody, i ain't gonna do that, okay? i think it's time to end all to have the negative campaigning and all the dirt in politics. i think it's a bad way to pick a president. so -- >> meanwhile, rubio and cruz are attacking each other instead of focusing on the guy on top, donald trump. and that sideshow is driving some conservatives mad, literally. conservative radio host, erick erickson wrote this today, that, quote, if cruz and rubio are too immature to start fighting each other to attack trump, we should force them. the goal must be to first stop

trump. we're going to crunch more of these numbers in a minute with our own resident delegate expert, but right now let's look at what's at stake tonight in nevada, joined by msnbc political analyst and dean of the nevada press corps, john ralston, host of "ralston live." i saw the good news you just reported, turnout will be higher than ever before in this nevada republican caucus experiment. but are we going to know who won before tomorrow morning? >> i'm hoping we know before november, chuck, the way they count the votes here. some people think it might go until tomorrow afternoon. i guess it's going to depend on a couple of things. first, it's obviously going to depend on whether the republican party botches the count the way they did. they have this crazy system set up, this time, where they take pictures of the ballots with their cell phones, and then text in the pictures. but pretty much cruz and rubio campaigns believe

>> do local text messaging charges apply? i'm kidding. sorry. good grief. >> i wonder about the service out in rural nevada. but i don't even want to talk about that right now. but the cruz and rubio campaigns, they are essentially saying privately, they don't think they have any chance to beat trump. they think they could lose by as much as 25 points. and that's whether the turnout was low or high. but if this race is close, if it's south carolina-like between cruz and rubio, we may be here a while. and one person told me they may not know final results until tomorrow afternoon. that's worst-case scenario. best-case scenario, we know something by 10:00 or 11:00 here on the west coast, which probably means you'll be in bed already. >> here's what i don't -- why is there this assumption that trump just wins this going away? if this is totally an organization test, and we know trump -- you tell me, but there's not a lot of evidence that trump has put -- it's not like iowa, he did put in a ground game a little bit late in the day, but he did get an

operation in place. we know rubio has been on the ground for quite some time. cruz as well. why is -- would you be totally shocked in trump lost tonight? >> i would be surprised, i think, chuck. only because, this is not just an expectations game that the cruz and rubio camps are playing. they have both expressed frustration to me, here in nevada, at their inability to sway trump voters to their cause. that no arguments work with them, and that they're more committed to going to caucus than you might think. now, again, they don't have a ground game here. today, trump actually sent out an e-mail with caucus locations, text number for his folks to text to, to try to find out where they caucus. so they've made some improvements, but it's nothing like, as you pointed out, what rubio and cruz have on the ground here. could there be an upset? yes, but it's much more likely to be an upset if the turnout was really low, than if the

turnout was higher. as you know, chuck, trump's support cuts across a lot of demographic groups inside the republican party. so the higher the turnout gets, i think the worse for cruz and rubio. >> i remember when we thought mormon support for rubio was somehow going to put him over the top. that conventional wisdom went o out the door a few months ago. >> right, it's not going to be as high, the mormon turnout, as it was with romney. one expert in mormon demographics told me while it was 25% for romney in 2012, may not even be 10%, maximum, 15%, this year. now, that may help rubio beat cruz, chuck, but i get the sense that cruz is really moving. he's going some very smart things, campaigning in rural nevada, and people forget, as i've been saying all day, rural nevada and the reno area are going to make up half of this vote, probably. it's not a clark county dominated vote. >> not like as much as the democrats is, that's for sure. john ralston, as always, sir, this is your time. you're going to matter for days and days and days if this vote

count takes as long as it does. >> that's right. >> all right, thanks, john. i want to get into the delegate math of these so-called stop-trump movements. hope that some republicans that are holding on to, with maybe they're clinging to. i'm joined here on set by ben ginsburg, top election guru, dealmaker on the republican side and an msnbc analyst now. mr. ginsburg, how are you? >> mr. todd. >> let's go through our numbers here, these rough estimates and just start with what you saw that we put up earlier. and i think we can put up these numbers earlier. let's do it without bush. this is assuming the bush number goes to where it is. is this a fair read of how this could play out on super tuesday, the way, overall, how these delegates are handed out? >> absolutely. what's true is getting more votes is better than not having as many votes. and it's important to consolidate. once you get to proportionate

voting, the person who finishes the first will get two delegates, the one who comes in second will get one. even if you have 33% of the vote, you're getting half the delegates. that becomes important to consolidate. zl how many of these states on super tuesday operate more the way south carolina did, where all of a sudden they got, even though it was somewhat, it was half winner take all, some by congressional district, he ended up winning all the delegates. how many of these super tuesday states could trump take 35% and win all the delegates? >> the rules will be different. south carolina has an exemption, so we can be winner take all. >> so they got away with that. >> so they got away with that. all the states on super tuesday will be proportional in the way they give away their delegates. >> some have thresholds of 10% and some have thresholds of 20. >> and some have no thresholds. most have a threshold where if you win 50% or more in a congressional district or statewide, you get all the delegates.

but that's obviously a really tall order with this group of candidates. >> so when you look at this math, do you understand why -- it was interesting, bush got rubio to a serp way, but even though kasich's number wasn't that high, kasich was worth almost the equal amount of delegates for rubio, if he got out, that bush was. >> it's the magic difference in the way proportional allocations work. look, one of the things to remember is that donald trump is about in the same position after the first four states if he wins nevada as mitt romney was in 2012. mitt romney got knocked off his game on the february 7th three states. so rubio -- >> that had no delegates awarded that day. i remember that. >> but it changed the narrative. the equivalent of that on super tuesday is either cruz or rubio or both lowering trump's number in the states where really rick santorum and mike huckabee did well in 2008 and 2012. >> so when you look at these

super tuesday states, so test number one is going to be what? it's going to be cruz versus trump in texas. test number two, what are the different things you're looking for? >> so if you're donald trump, beating cr ining ted cruz in te knocks him pretty much out of the box. a nominee has to be able to win his own state. same with march 15th in john kasich. >> this happened with mitt romney four years ago in michigan. if he lost that -- >> he would have been gone. so that's the donald trump scenario. what cruz and rubio have to do is to lower trump's numbers, to be free that she doesn't meet expectations. right now, the projections have him winning ten states, 12 states, out of the 14. >> it's very possible he wince every state. >> and the only state right now that it doesn't look like he can't win, it would be texas. >> but that's where the proportionately comes in. what the cruz and rubio campaigns come in are really targeting at their supporters to

get them out, to be able to make that difference in the congressional districts where they can pick up two delegates from donald trump's one. >> and that's -- so cruz is probably doing the s.e.c. belt -- >> right. >> marco rubio is probably doing, what -- >> more suburban areas. >> and all that stuff. >> even alabama, mississippi, have some good suburban districts you can get. you win as many delegates from getting, from winning a 95% barack obama district, as you do from the heaviest republican district. >> so rubio, in many ways, is borrowing the mitt romney delegate strategy. that was the mitt romney delegate strategy -- >> absolutely, was to go into those. >> go into the big markets. >> i have a feeling we've got more complicated math to do in a week, but it's fun to get started with this operation with you, mr. ginsburg. >> fasten the seat belt. >> thank you, sir. coming up, riding the anti-trump wave. can anyone stop the front-runner's momentum? i'll talk with front-runner mike lee, he's been someone who's campaigned for both rubio and cruz, at a moment when everybody is trying to pick between rubio and cruz, at least in the

non-donald trump world. plus, the 2016 field weighs in on president obama's plans to shut down the guantanamo bay detention facility. will this debate really be done when the next president takes off or is this just setting the table for a tougher debate in a year? stay tuned.

listen up! i'm here to get the lady of the house back on her feet. and give her the strength and energy to stay healthy. who's with me?! yay! the complete balanced nutrition of great tasting ensure. with 9 grams of protein and 26 vitamins and minerals. ensure. take life in!

keeping this facility open is contrary to our values. it undermines our standing in the world. it is viewed as a stain on our broader record of upholding the highest standards of rule of law. if as a nation we don't deal with this now, when will we deal with it? >> that was president obama this morning unveiling his plan that he's sending to congress to shut down the u.s. detention facility at guantanamo bay. the closing of the prison would fulfill a promise from president obama's 2008 campaign. the plan requires transferring between 30 and 60 detainees to u.s. soil and relocating the

rest to other countries. as of today, there are 91 detainees still held at guantanamo bay. 35 are eligible for transfer and 10 will never be released. that leaves 46 detainees with their transfer status unsettled. some of them potentially getting trials, some of them not. president obama said today he doesn't want to, quote, pass this problem on to the next president. but for those who want to be the next president, it was a popular topic today on the campaign trail. >> it's not a great idea and i don't support it. and you know, the assumption is that all presidents coming after him will also think it's a good idea. it's, i think, ill conceived. >> i think he's just trying to live up to a political promise, but some of the toughest people we have are there and why would you close that down and move those people where? here? into the united states? i just don't think it makes any sense. >> not only are we not going to close guantanamo, but when i'm president, if we capture a terrorist alive, they're not getting a court hearing in manhattan, they're not going to

be sent to nevada, their going to guantanamo and we're going to find out everything they know. >> just today, president obama announced his plans to try to shut down guantanamo terrorist detention facilities. let me say this, mr. president. don't shut down gitmo, expand it and let's have some new terrorists there. >> guantanamo. which, by the way, which, by the way, we are keeping open. which we are keeping open. and we're going to load it up with some bad dudes, believe me. we're going to load it up. >> it is amazing, eight years ago, many republicans were arguing for shutting down the prison as well. anyway, the president's plan would have to be approved by congress, and that's where there's significant opposition from republicans as well as some democrats and there are some genuine legal obstacles here. congress has passed two bills in recent months that specifically prohibit the president from moving detainees from guantanamo to the united states. folks, this is not going to

happen. this was an announcement that will be able to say he made an effort, but it's not going to happen with this congress in this election year. much more of "mtp daily" coming up in just a minute. e possibilie was almost always on my mind. thinking about what to avoid, where to go... and how to deal with my uc. to me, that was normal. until i talked to my doctor. she told me that humira helps people like me get uc under control and keep it under control when certain medications haven't worked well enough. humira can lower your ability to fight infections, including tuberculosis. serious, sometimes fatal infections and cancers, including lymphoma, have happened; as have blood, liver, and nervous system problems, serious allergic reactions, and new or worsening heart failure. before treatment, get tested for tb. tell your doctor if you've been to areas where certain fungal infections are common, and if you've had tb, hepatitis b, are prone to infections, or have flu-like symptoms or sores.

don't start humira if you have an infection. raise your expectations. ask your gastroenterologist about humira. with humira, control is possible. . frustration is not a plan. being angry is not a plan. it doesn't solve the problem. it may motivate you to take action, but that alone will not solve the problem. so this election can't just be about making a point. it can't just be about electing the loudest person in the room, because that alone will not solve the problem. >> that was marco rubio campaigning today in las vegas, just hours before doors open in some of the nevada caucuses. right now rubio and cruz are fighting over the chunk of republican voters that are not voting for donald trump. which brings us to my next guest. sort of unique here. republican senator mike lee of utah. he's campaigned with both cruz and rubio and he insists he's staying neutral for now. senator mike lee joins me from capitol hill. so, senator, it is the parlor

game of washington republicans. it is the parlor game of a bunch of republicans around the country. you've got to pick sides. cruz or rubio, if you want to take on trump. when do you pick sides, sir? >> look, as of right now, i support both of them. i have worked with both ted cruz and marco rubio. i would be thrilled to have either one of them as our president. both of them are proven conservatives, both of them have a positive and principled conservative brand that i support. i would like to see one of them become our president. >> when does it become important to you who can win? >> well, you know, at some point, we're going to know who our nominee is going to be. that point is not yet now. i don't know when that's going to be apparent, but it's going to happen, i hope, and expect, frankly, it will be one of those two. >> is donald trump a conservative? >> you know, i'm still waiting to hear more policy details from donald trump. you ask whether he's a conservative, and i would have to ask the question back, what policies has he proposed? i'm still waiting to see --

>> what do you make of his tax plan? about the only details he's put out on anything, arguably, fairly, a fairly detailed tax plan. what did you make of that? >> yeah, there were some aspects of his tax plan that i think some conservatives would quibble with. but a tax plan, in and of itself, is not sufficient to make someone either a conservative or not conservative. we need more details than that. and as you just pointed out, that's one of the only details that he has ever put out. we need to have more detail. we need to have something more than bumper stickers and slogans and things that can be stitched on to a hat in order to know what someone stands for. and i don't have that from donald trump right now. >> you know, i find it fascinating that you're undecided, essentially, or you're for both cruz and rubio, in this respect. both of them, arguably, have two different definitions of what conservatism is in 2016. you could make an argument that marco rubio's more of an internationalist conservative, a little more open to immigration, a little more open to intervention, a little more

pro-free trade. a ted cruz, a little less interested, a little tougher on the borders, a little less interventionist. a little more protectionist on the trade front. it really is two different visions of conservatism, is it not? >> perhaps. i mean, you've identified some areas where they disagree. but on the whole, i think both of them are conservative. they're both people who have introduced conservative legislation, who have run on a conservative agenda. and while there are minor differences, as you've noted, there's more that unites them than divides them. >> let's ask you a couple of news of the day questions. i want to ask you to react, i was a little surprised to see, this was senator pat roberts' reaction to the president's plan, let me show it to you. >> this is what i think of the president's plan to send terrorists to the united states.

>> i understand the sentiment, but when did we get to the point where we disagree with something and we have to make a viral video, like, to say, i so disagree with it, i want to make -- you know, i'm going to throw it away, doesn't his plan at least deserve a hearing, even if you don't like it? >> you know, chuck, i'm sure the video is great and i'm sure it's lovely, i couldn't see it. what was he doing? >> fair enough. he took the paper, wadded it up, threw it in a trash can and said, that's what i think of the president's plan. and it just seemed a little un-senatorial. it seems like no matter what you think of the plan, he submitted it, shouldn't it be the obligation of the u.s. senate to at least consider it and say, you know what, we don't like it. but i feel like we have no lines anymore in decorum. >> yeah, perhaps, but perhaps, chuck, if you were serving in the united states senate and perhaps if the president of the united states was undertaking a plan that might result in detainees from guantanamo bay being sent to your state in your backyard you might feel differently. >> i understand that.

i understand that vehemence, but, i guess, what's the line? and do you ever worry -- because you're not a guy who screams, you're not one of those guys. >> no, that's not my style, but i think each senator has the right to express him or herself in whatever manner they deem appropriate. but look, the bottom line is, there is also a message here going the other direction. which is that, perhaps the president should engage in a open and honest dialogue with congress about the reasons he wants to do this, about all of his solutions for how he's going to handle this. how is he going to deal with the jurisdiction of the article iii courts? and how is he going to deal with all the other jurisdictional issues that would accompany a decision like this? where, exactly, are those prisoners going to be moved? we have a lot of unanswered questions and it would be helpful to have some more detail from the president. >> is there any scenario where you would be open to seeing any gitmo detainees transferred to any facility in the united

states? >> you know, i don't think it would ever say, never, if you're talking about any detainee. i can imagine a scenario where they might decide that it's appropriate to send one of them to the united states. there might be a circumstance in which they decided they would inappropriately send somebody to gitmo. i'm never going to say never, but i'm certainly not in the camp that says, yeah, that's a good idea to close guantanamo bay. that doesn't make sense and the president certainly hasn't made the case that that's okay. >> and one final question on the supreme court. i know that there's a letter circulating, saying that there would be no confirmation hearings, no hearing at all, until january 20th, 2017. why rule out the lame-duck period? >> well, we have a lame-duck president who's going to be possibly making a nomination to fill a lifetime position on the highest court in the land. the american people have a voice. they ought to have an opportunity to express that voice. and this ought to be a decision

that's made by the next president, the american people will speak in november of 2016 to decide who that next president will be. >> right. that's what i mean. if they make that decision in november, and say, stick with the democrats, do you feel at all obligated with looking at that nominee then? >> you know, i think there might be a different set of considerations then, although at that point, if the democrats win the white house in november, i would suspect that whoever the president-elect is on the democratic side would not be altogether enthusiastic about the president moving forward and the senate confirming a nominee. they would probably prefer that we wait until january. >> all right, senator lee, are you going to make a decision on cruz/rubio before super tuesday? >> i will make a decision at some point. >> okay. before super tuesday? >> i didn't say that. i said, i'll make a decision on that at some point. >> all right, fair enough. senator lee, always a pleasure to talk with you, sir. thank you. >> thank you. so, will trump run away with gold tonight in the silver

state? and still ahead, the inside man. what sanders' newest high-profile african-american backer, can he move the needle in south carolina? stay tuned. ♪ if you're looking to save money on your medicare part d prescriptions, walgreens says, carpe med diem. seize the day to get more out of life and medicare part d. just switch to walgreens for savings that'll be the highlight of your day. now preview the cost of your copay before you fill. you can even get one-dollar copays on select plans.

unless you have allergies., then your eyes may see it differently. only flonase is approved to relieve both itchy, watery eyes and congestion. no other nasal allergy spray can say that. when we breathe in allergens our bodies react by over producing six key inflammatory substances that cause our symptoms. most allergy pills only control one substance. flonase controls six. and six is greater than one. complete allergy relief or incomplete. let your eyes decide. flonase. 6>1 changes everything.

incredible bladder prthat lets from always diyou move like you mean it now comes with an incredible promise. the always discreet double your money back guarantee. always discreet is for bladder leaks and it's drier than poise. try it. we're so confident you'll love it, we'll give you double your money back if you don't. incredible bladder protection. double your money back guarantee. that's always discreet. i built my business with passion. but i keep it growing by making every dollar count. that's why i have the spark cash card from capital one. i earn unlimited 2% cash back on everything i buy for my studio. ♪ and that unlimited 2% cash back from spark means thousands of dollars each year going back into my business...

that's huge for my bottom line. what's in your wallet? still ahead on "mtp daily," up next, hillary clinton's campaign manager and bernie sanders' top adviser, they're both here ahead of next week. is sanders finally showing he's ready to play offense. but first, here's hampton pearson with the cnbc market wrap. >> we had stocks sinking across the board. the dow dropping 189 point, the s&p falling by 24, the nasdaq down by 67. shares of home depot bucked the downward trend, climbing more than 1%. earnings were better than expected, thanks to an improve housing market and a warmer than usual holiday season. existing home sales rose to a six-month high in january. and home prices jumped 5.7% in december over a year ago levels.

that's according to s&p case-shiller. that's it from cnbc, first in business worldwide. be the boss of you? (patrick 2) pretty great. (patrick 1) how about a 10% raise? (patrick 2) how about 20? (patrick 1) how about done? (patrick 2) that's the kind of control i like... ...and that's what they give me at national car rental. i can choose any car in the aisle i want- without having to ask anyone. who better to be the boss of you... (patrick 1)than me. i mean, you...us. (vo) go national. go like a pro. you're an at&t small business expert? sure am. my staff could use your help staying in touch with customers. at&t can help you stay connected. am i seeing double? no ma'am. our at&t 'buy one get one free' makes it easier

for your staff to send appointment reminders to your customers... ...and share promotions on social media? you know it! now i'm seeing dollar signs. you should probably get your eyes checked. good one babe. optometry humor. right now get up to $650 in credits to help you switch to at&t. when age-related macular have degeneration, amd we came up with a plan to help reduce my risk of progression. and everywhere i look... i'm reminded to stick to my plan. including preservision areds 2. my doctor said preservision areds 2 has the exact nutrient formula that the national eye institute recommends to help reduce the risk of progression of moderate to advanced amd... after 15 years of clinical studies.

preservision areds 2. because my eyes are everything. when you're on hold, your business is on hold. that's why comcast business doesn't leave you there. when you call, a small business expert will answer you in about 30 seconds. no annoying hold music. just a real person, real fast. whenever you need them. so your business can get back to business. sounds like my ride's ready. don't get stuck on hold. reach an expert fast. comcast business. built for business.

so the next democratic ballots are being cast saturday in south carolina. hillary clinton is set to start an event in the palmetto state in just under an hour in columbia, and both candidates will take part in a town hall that's later tonight. according to our new nbc news survey monkey weekly tracking poll of online, clinton leads sanders 50-41, and among african-americans, the gap is wider. we have clinton with a 33 point lead. and today sanders revealed a new ad that features spike lee.

and while they've all endorsed clinton, garner's daughter endorsed sanders in another sign of the generational divide in this democratic primary. both candidates are vying for support in the african-american the community, as they go into the first of the south primary on saturday. by the way, ad spending data from our partners at smart media group show that the clinton campaign and allies have spent just over $4 million. in all, 11 states that vote on march 1st. the sanders' campaign has spent just over $3 million, but their ad buys appear in just five of those states. in a moment, we'll talk to top sanders' adviser tad devine about that, but first, let me start with robby mook, campaign manager for hillary clinton's campaign. he joins me live. welcome back to the show, sir. >> hey, chuck. >> let me ask you this on south carolina. double-digit win, it seems to be. are you running against expectations at this point on saturday, rather than bernie sanders, that you're running for -- to see how large your margin is, where you have to avoid a single-digit victory? >> well, look, chuck, hillary said at the beginning of this

campaign, she was going to fight hard to earn every single vote in this primary. so we're not focused on expectations, we're focused on winning, earning, re-earning every single vote and building up that delegate lead, which we just started yesterday when we got that extra delegate out of the nevada caucuses. >> you know, one of the things that has been a recurring issue that shows up in the exit and entrance poll that's been consistent has been a trust gap. how important is it that you close this going into not just winning this democratic primary, but also in preparing for a general election? >> well, i think, what this entire primary is about, and what this general election will be about is which candidate voters can trust to stand up for them, to take on the special interests and the republicans in congress and actually get something done that will make a difference in their lives. and when you look at this field, hillary clinton, clearly comes out on top. she has spent her entire life fighting to break down the barriers that prevent everyday

people from getting ahead, whether it be when she took on the insurance companies in the 90s and fought until she got health care coverage, for 8 million kids. whether it was her work around the world, standing up to dictators, bringing people to the table to get the nuclear del against iran, this is someone who can clearly deliver the results voters are looking for, break down those barriers that are keeping families from getting ahead right now. >> so you think you can make it, if you make the trust issue about issues, rather than personality, that you can overcome this? >> well, i think when you look at hillary's track record, from the time that she left law school and went to go work for the children's defense fund, you know, getting juvenile detainees out of adult prisons or desegregating schools, from the time she started her career, she has consistently stood up for everyday people, helping them to, like i said, break down those barriers and get ahead. so people can absolutely trust hillary and she has a track record to show it. >> i want to ask you about --

since it's a to be member of the campaign staff that has been ordered by a federal judge, huma abedin, a federal judge has ordered that discovery should go forth, that aids to secretary clinton should be questioned under oath about why they thwarted federal records, or in the words of that judge, has the campaign made a decision or huma abedin and others that are being asked to testify under oath, are they going to comply? >> chuck, it's important to see who's behind all of this. this is a lawsuit from a right-wing group. this is unfortunately something that has happened repeatedly on this campaign. the republicans know that hillary is absolutely the strongest candidate to, you know, to hold on to the white house, make sure that we build on the progress that president obama has made. so, of course, they're filing lawsuits and trying to do everything they can -- >> but this was a federal judge. this was a federal judge appointed by bill clinton. >> but the lawsuit itself was promulgated by a right-wing republican group.

this is purely an attempt to distract voters from what's really at stake here. the issues that hillary got in this case to talk about. >> in fairness, if the lawsuit didn't have merits, it would be thrown out. obviously, a judge thought the lawsuit had merits. >> it's really important to focus on what group brought this lawsuit. it's a right-wing group that has built their entire mission on taking down democrats and people who are speaking out for middle class families, taking on the special interests, which is exactly what hillary is doing. and she recognizes there's going to be a price to pay fortaking on the republicans, for fighting the insurance companies, fighting to reduce college debt. that's a price she'll have to pay. but she's not going to let it distract her from her mission to break down those barriers. >> i'll take it that any yaaide on the campaign that are being asked to testify under oath, they're going to testify? >> i'll leave that to the lawyers to sort out. we are focused on talking to voters about the issues they care about. i didn't hear about this once when i was out in nevada. i don't think anybody's bringing it up in south carolina.

voters care about their own lives. >> robby mook, i'll leave it there. let's turn to the sanders side of thix. tad devine is a senior adviser for the campaign. welcome back to the show. >> good to be with you. >> i want to ask whether you're playing to win or playing for delegates? and i ask this question, because super tuesday has a lot of contests and yet your campaign is choosing to only advertise in five. colorado, massachusetts, minnesota, oklahoma, and texas. the clinton campaign is advertising in another five thal you're not advertising in, alabama, arkansas, georgia, tennessee, and virginia. i understand the arkansas decision. she's got a lot of connections there, just like you guys are probably not going to spend money in vermont. but why give up half the day? and why not -- why not spend money and play to win? this, to me, is a strategy to play for 40%. >> well, that's not it at all, chuck. listen. if you wanted to do media campaigns in all those states, you would probably have to spend about $50 million.

they're spending 4.1, we're spending 3.8. we have different targeting strategies, but i don't think that's an indication of anything other than different campaigns have different strategies. our strategy in the next week is to win as many delegates as we can. and if we can win some states as well, we think that's important. we're going to pursue that strategy. we think this nomination process will go on for a long time. all the way through california and and when we get to the end, we'll have the most delegates. >> ted, three of the four biggest states, you're not even spending a dollar in. virginia, tennessee, and georgia, at least on advertising dollars, and in texas, it's a paltry sum. i just, i -- i'm just trying to figure out, it doesn't look like you're playing to win. >> chuck, in texas, trust me, they're spending a paltry sum, too. you need millions of dollars to saturate all the media markets -- >> but they have the lead. they can afford to spend less. >> listen, we've defined -- we've done some really sophisticated targeting. we know where we want to use resources. by the way, our advertising, as much as i love television ads, i make them for a living, trust

me, we've got a lot of voter contact going on, and much of the voter contact we're doing is in digital. we have done a great job talking to young voters in particular, online, and we're doing that in every single state that's coming up on super tuesday. so, i think, you know, you'll see that our communications strategy in all of those states is very effective and our resource allocation and deployment will help us win the maximum number of delegates. >> it seems to me the best way to judge tuesday is not going to be a number of states won, it will be a number of delegates won. can you -- you know, if you don't win a majority of the delegates available on tuesday, doesn't it become that much harder to catch up as you go forward, the way the delegate allocation process works? >> i don't think it does. i think it's important for us to win a large number of delegates, and i think we will. wing one of the things about proportional reputati aal repre two candidates are close to each other, they're going to roughly split the delegates. you can beat somebody by 20 points and split the delegates or beat them by 1 point and

split the delegates. we've done a lot of targeting and modeling and know where we want to make our efforts. this thing will go on for a wile. wife got big states coming up, and in the aftermath of that, i think there'll be a big showdown in michigan on march 15th, a lot of big states. but we intend to be in this thing all the way through california and in the end. and we think if we do it right, we can get there with the most delegates and then persuade the super delegates that bernie will be the best candidate for the democrats. >> we'll be watching and seeing what kind of gap there is on tuesday, on the delegate count. >> all right, thank you. >> we'll be keeping track. >> i know, you've been counting delegates a lot longer than i have. thank you, tad. >> thanks. coming up, former casino king donald trump is expected to run the tables tonight in nevada. but ted cruz is betting heavy on some texas hold'ems. will his bet pay off? stay tuned. welcome to opportunity's knocking, where self-proclaimed financial superstars pitch you investment opportunities. i've got a fantastic deal for you- gold! with the right pool of investors, there's a lot of money to be made.

but first, investors must ask the right questions and use the smartcheck challenge to make the right decisions. you're not even registered; i'm done with you! i can...i can... savvy investors check their financial pro's background by visiting smartcheck.gov

all right. this is pretty fun. nbc news has launched a new social media experiment. see, we're even calling it an experiment. we want to hear from you. you can head to electionconfessions.com and you get to anonymously post what you really think about the election. try to keep it dignified. and we'll keep your decision 2016 secrets. we promise. but keep it here. we'll be right back.

out on the town or in for the night, at&t helps keep everyone connected. right now at at&t, buy one get one free on our most popular smartphones. no matter how you hang out, share every minute of it. buy one get one free on our most popular smartphones. and right now, get up to $650 in credits per line to help you switch to at&t. wheall i can think abouthit, is getting relief. only nicorette mini has a patented fast-dissolving formula. it starts to relieve sudden cravings fast. i never know when i'll need relief. that's why i only choose nicorette mini. ♪coming soon from progressive, it's "savin' u," the new hit single from the dizzcounts. ♪ cash money ♪ the biggest discount and understand... ♪

the dizzcounts. safe driver, paperless, paid-in-full, multi-car and joey fatone. ♪ savin' you five hundred ♪ i'm savin' you five hundred we have auto-tune, right? oh, yeah. that's a hit! all: yeah! i'm here to get the lady of the house back on her feet. and give her the strength and energy to stay healthy. who's with me?! yay! the complete balanced nutrition of great tasting ensure. with 9 grams of protein and 26 vitamins and minerals. ensure. take life in! thsometimes you can't evento graimagine.h. that's the job. and she's the one who's proven she can get it done. ...securing a massive reduction in nuclear weapons... ...standing up against the abuse of women... ...protecting social security... ...expanding benefits for the national guard... ...and winning health care for 8 million children... the presidency is the toughest job in the world and she's the one who'll make a real difference for you.

i'm hillary clinton and i approved this message. sounds like donald is really getting worried and scared. you know, you always have a bar r just how rattled he is. those insults, he tosses one out. but the more rattled he gets, the more he loses control, the more he engages in pernal attack. i have no intention of respond anything kind. >> speaking to reporters after a campaign rally there in minden, nevada. we'll be right back with the lid. know you have insights from professional investment strategists to help set your mind at ease. know that planning for retirement can be the least of your worries.

with the guidance of a pnc investments financial advisor, know you can get help staying on track for the future you've always wanted.

and you're talking to yourevere rheumatorheumatologistike me, about a biologic... this is humira. this is humira helping to relieve my pain and protect my joints from further damage. this is humira giving me new perspective. doctors have been prescribing humira for ten years. humira works for many adults. it targets and helps to block a specific source of inflammation that contributes to ra symptoms. humira can lower your ability to fight infections, including tuberculosis. serious, sometimes fatal infections and cancers, including lymphoma, have happened, as have blood, liver and nervous system problems, serious allergic reactions, and new or worsening heart failure. before treatment get tested for tb. tell your doctor if you've been to areas where certain fungal infections are common, and if you've had tb, hepatitis b, are prone to infections, or have flu-like symptoms or sores. don't start humira if you have an infection.

talk to your doctor and visit humira.com. this is humira at work. we're always looking for ways to speed up your car insurance search. here's the latest. problem is, we haven't figured out how to reverse it. for now, just log on to compare.com... plug in some simple info and get up to 50 free quotes. choose the lowest and hit purchase. now...if you'll excuse me, i'm late for an important function. compare.com. saving humanity from high insurance rates. hey how's it going, hotcakes? hotcakes. this place has hotcakes. so why aren't they selling like hotcakes? with comcast business internet and wifi pro, they could be. just add a customized message to your wifi pro splash page and you'll reach your customers where their eyes are already - on their devices. order up. it's more than just wifi, it can help grow your business. you don't see that every day.

introducing wifi pro, wifi that helps grow your business. comcast business. built for business. time for the lid, let's bring in the round table. molly ball from the atlantic, okay. all of washington consumed with stop trump, except ted cruz and marco rubio. that's what i don't understand. what's going on? >> a campaign dilemma, if you're ted cruz, say i need to get to a one-on-one match against donald trump, so i need to take out the person next to me. that game theory only ends up benefits donald trump. >> did you play king of the hill as a kid? somebody on the hill, you all charged him or her and -- >> you went after the person with the ball. >> kill the man, we called it kill the man as a kid. >> we're seeing the same thing on the democratic on the other side. political malpractice. >> anything changes in the debate on thursday.

this will be a real watershed moment, there is a lot of this going on, a lot of pressure, a lot of people wondering whether they should switch from jeb to rubio want to see if rubio has this fight in him and you've been hearing that. >> right, because the one thing we don't know, how will rubio hold up when trump comes after him. he has done a few jokes, but he has not brought the full force of trump. >> no, no, he hasn't. and you know, cruz and trump have gone after each other a little bit and trump is, you know, going after cruz on the campaign trail, and that's going to continue, but the question is, do cruz and rubio continue to train most of their fire on each other in the vein hope that one can be eliminated, but i don't think that's going to happen. >> the only way is if he loses texas. >> a real possibility. a new poll online, that has cruz in the lead, but it's not an inn surmountable one. it's important to know what

happened in south carolina. so you could see that donald trump has a little more momentum, and if donald trump ends up winning texas, over for ted cruz and if trump wins in florida, it's over for marco rubio. >> ron, i want to go back to this. it is -- everybody is trying to figure out how did this happen. all that supgs this assumption going to sink himself. did they wait too long. >> especially they've ignored the fact that the american public is seeing every institution let them down, the technology surge, two wars, demographic change and they've been disconnected. this just shows how disconnected we all are from the public. so disconnected that we didn't see how upset they were, that they would get behind a lot of people would get behind the celebrity billionaire who doesn't have the qualifications to get near the white house, let alone running the white house. now that they've created this mess, i think both parties, and

now the party running against them have been ignoring the threat and here he is. it's going to be hard to stop him. >> let's not forget who did this. it wasn't the establishment who did it. it wasn't the party, the other candidates. it was donald trump that did this. and the voters that did this. donald trump offered the voters something they like and they're supporting him because of it. you can say the other candidates aren't winning because they failed to take him out or didn't employ the right strategy, but they're not offering what donald trump is. it's simple. >> i'm old enough to remember that this was supposed to be the best field for the republicans for president in a generation. >> and i remember when it was supposed to be a republican governor who was probably going to be someone who was going to be in the driver's seat. only one governor left, john kasich. >> how long can he survive right now? he is such a company guy, you know, i don't mean -- one hand, he is and he isn't. he is -- he is going to take john boehner's call when he says john -- >> and. >> he is going to take george w.

bush's call. he doesn't want to be responsible for trump. >> if i stay in, i might have -- be responsible for trump winning the presidency. >> and that's something you wonder, does that matter? what i'm curious, why is it if -- if everybody who behind the scenes in the republican party went in front of the camera and said they don't want trump to be president, it would be a powerful statement, and yet these people don't do it. >> a lot of them have done it and i don't think it's persuasive. the fact that we're get the pile john for rubio, it's likely to hurt him. >> the only way you take down trump isn't with a bunch of endorsements, you take him down. by mocking him, by belittling him. he is a thin-skinned bully. so the way you treat a bully in the playground and stand up to him. >> that's not what you're supposed to do to bullies. you're supposed to walk away. >> in our days.

marco rubio has walked away. >> the turnout we've not seen on the republican side, and that's for all of his faults, he has brought excitement for this race. >> record breaking on the republican side. shouldn't be ignored. democrats not so much. we'll be back tomorrow with more "mtp daily." it starts at 10:00 p.m. tonight. it could go on all day tomorrow. we get to cover nevada for days. "with all due respect" starts right now. i'm mark halperin. >> i'm john helemann. >> i'm danny glover for all due respect for sister hillary clinton, i'm feeling the bern. >> love from here in las vegas, nevada, republican caucus night. candidates spent a final day