their party. we're not having that, we're having a little bit of a skirmish. a few differences here and there. i think it's a different feeling. >> you can make a case that democrats will never see turnout again like they had. >> it's possible. >> joan walsh, thank you to both of you. that does it for this hour. i'm steve kornacki, "mtp daily" starts right now. if it's super wednesday, it's a full-blown march to the nomination for donald trump. the forces that are gearing up to stop him have just 13 days to do it. but what can they really do? and what does the republican party's most recent nominee plan to say about it all when he takes center stage 18 hours from now? this is "mtp daily," and it starts right now.

well, good evening. quite the 24 hours. i'm chuck todd in washington, welcome back to "mtp daily," no rest for the weary after a wild super tuesday night, it was a along night for the so-called republican establishment, and many more like it could be on the horizon. we begin, though, with some breaking news from the campaign trail. dr. ben carson appears to be readying his exit from the race. carson is now telling supporters that he sees no path forward after last night's super tuesday results. he says, for now, he's decided to skip tomorrow night's republican debate in detroit. he said he will address his future in a speech on friday at the cpac conference. just outside of washington, d.c. just in the last hour, ohio governor john kasich said he spoke to carson right after he made that announcement. >> i just had a very, very nice conversation with dr. ben carson, who announced today that he's suspending his campaign, and i think he held his head high and he's a very, very good man, so they'll all report this. so give him a round of applause.

>> but, folks, the big story tonight, it is t-minus 13 days for the republican party, if trump does well over the next two weeks, it's likely game over for the republican establishment. here's why. right now, trump is winning the math, the map, and he's got the momentum. on the night with the largest batch of republican delegates up for grabs in the 2016 race, trump racked up victories in 7 of the 11 contest. arkansas, vermont, georgia, massachusetts, virginia, tennessee, and alabama. ted cruz had the second-best night. he picked up victories in three states. his home state of texas, alaska, and oklahoma. marco rubio limped in third place, he finally won his first state, but minnesota is hardly a republican powerhouse. what we saw last night was a war within the gop over the issue of change versus values. results from the nbc news exit poll across nine republican super tuesday primary states revealed that republicans who want a candidate who shares their values largely prefer cruz and rubio over trump. but among republicans who say

that it is most important that their candidate shares their values, voters supported cruz over trump by over 30 points. for instance, in arkansas and oklahoma. voters supported cruz over trump by over 40 points in texas using that same metric. by the way, in all of these, rubio was actually second in all of these categories. now, republicans who said it was most important that their candidate bring needed change largely preferred trump over cruz, and rubio, by a lot. look at this. republicans who said they wanted change consistently supported trump over cruz by big margins. in some places, over 50%. look at tennessee, for instance. trump beat cruz in this state with the exception of texas. here's one of the more remarkable pieces of data last night. trump drove record turnout in nearly every contest across the board, except poor old vermont. we're talking numbers that rivaled obama's movement on the left in 2008. the big picture, folks, the republican map is quickly

turning into trump country. he's built a decent delegate lead, not insurmountable yet, but it's decent and nearly 200 over cruz. they cannot beat trump with a convention fight if he hits that magic number 1,237, their only hope is to stop him from getting that magic number if they can. which means it's up though these guys, cruz, rubio and kasich to try to figure out how to stop the trump juggernaut. as they all made clear last night, none of them intends to go quietly and maybe that's the right call. >> for the candidates who have not yet won a state, who have not racked up significant delegates, i ask you to prayerfully consider our coming together, uniting -- >> two weeks from tonight, right here in florida, we are going to send a message cloud and clear. the party of lincoln and reagan and the presidency of the united states will never be held by a con artist.

>> i'm going to tell you now, we will beat donald trump in the state of ohio and it will be a whole new day. >> rubio did his best to look forward after last night's disappointing results. he spoke briefly to reporters today, while casting his early vote in his home state of florida. >> we feel great about what the map looks like moving forward, especially when we get to our home state of florida. we're going to win florida. >> here's the irony, you hear a lot of talk about consolidation, but you can now make an argument that cruz, rubio, and kasich all need each other to stay in this race, if any of them have any shot of stopping trump. and trump needs them to stay in the race, because he does well when they split the non-trump vote. it's a cache-22 mess, frankly. first, let's explain this prisoner's dilemma for cruz, rubio, and kasich. the road map for the next 13 days is daunting for the republican establishment. a debate in michigan tomorrow night. then on saturday, there are contests in kansas, kentucky, louisiana, and maine. based on what we've seen so far,

those are going to be tough states for rubio or kasich to win. cruz may do well in a couple, trump's likely to win one or two. and on march 8th, it's hawaii, idaho, michigan, and mississippi. michigan probably sets up best for a non-trump candidate, but that might be it. then comes march 15th. that's the big one, sort of second super tuesday, just 13 days from now when the winner-take-all contests begin. if trump rolls into march 15th with a head of steam, the only one who can stop him in ohio may be the ohio state buckeye himself, john kasich, and you can bet rubio and cruz might actually be rooting for kasich in ohio. and it's the same story in florida. perhaps the only one who can beat trump in florida is native son marco rubio. if those two states fall to trump, might be game over. we're going to dig deeper into this entire road map later in the show, but that's where we sit, folks. trump's rivals need each other to stay in the race to stop trump, and trump needs them to stay in the race because they split the anti-trump vote. so how can cruz and rubio work together to knock off trump?

can they? does uniting only reinforce trump's outsider message and his grip on the party? as panic sets in, some of the republican party's top mega-donors and business leaders are attempting a last-ditch effort against him. tom rickets, brother of the nebraska governor pete rickets and co-owner of the chicago cubs who supported governor scott walker's presidential bid, paul singer, a hedge fund manager, and meg whitman, they all worked the phones last night along with other big donors in an effort to raise money for a super pac focused on taking out trump. and today, the group put out a new web ad, hitting trump on his recent comments about david duke. >> the doj sued the trump organization for racial discrimination in the 1970s. >> running against donald trump at this point is really treason to your heritage. i do support his candidacy and i support voting for him. >> i don't know anything about david duke, okay? i don't know anything about what you're even talking about, with white supremacy or white supremacy. so i don't know.

>> the conservative group, club for growth, is also jumping on the anti-trump train. they're spending $1.5 million on this ad, which is about to start running in florida. >> donald trump talks tough about china and mexico, but who has trump ever actually taken on? he hides behind bankruptcy laws, he even tried to kick an elderly widow out of her home through eminent domain. real tough guy. >> it doesn't stop there. the revolt to stop trump has also drawn the party's 2012 presidential nominee, mitt romney, back into the mix. tomorrow, romney plans to speak about trump and the dire state of the gop at the university of utah. and a source tells my colleague, kasie hunt, that romney will not endorse a candidate or announce that he is somehow going to run. so what's romney up to here? to break it all down, i'm joined by two wilily campaign veterans here, an adviser to the super pac that backed bobby jindal's presidential bid. and charlie beck has advised all the big names in the gop, including reagan, bush, mccain

and mitt romney. gentleman, welcome both. >> thanks. glad to be here. >> mr. black, you've been through a lot of these rodeos. you know mr. trump, actually, fairly well. you know these other folks. and i know i think you were a lindsey graham guy. >> i've tried to be neutral, because i had too many freniend. >> too many friends. is this realistic. is stopping trump a realistic effort at this point? >> oh, sure. it's a delegate race. he has a quarter of the delegates he needs to get to 1,237. super tuesday is really the 15th, when the winner-take-all states begin and when, as you identified, florida and ohio are so important. i actually think rubio is likely to win florida. and kasich is likely to win ohio. as the race then moves to the midwest and the northeast, trump's going to have a hard time, i believe. rubio has shown that he has some good appeal among suburban republicans, a lot of which whom populate the midwest and the northeast. the other big thing is, last

night, that trump lost oklahoma and almost lost arkansas, off a this club for growth ads. >> and both states were also, brad, and i remember you pointing this, closed primary states. >> correct. >> i know oklahoma was. i believe arkansas was, too. >> arkansas was. >> meaning, independents couldn't vote. and wherever that's been the case, we've seen it in some of the caucus states, as well, trump doesn't do as well, if you can't have -- >> we moved to those this weekend. you know, louisiana is closed, maine is closed, kansas is closed, kentucky's closed. >> so this should be good ted cruz possibilities? >> it should be this weekend. and then when you shift to the 15th, you get the states like florida, north carolina, illinois, missouri, which are disproportionately suburban in their electorates. if you looked last night, marco rubio did great in the richmond suburb, the washington, d.c. suburb, the atlanta suburb, the nashville suburbs. and in texas, ted cruz did very well in the suburbs of dallas and houston. trump does his worst in those suburban counties. that's the kind of votes on march 15th. >> can the campaigns work together, though? it looks good in theory, this

idea, okay, kasich, your job is to win ohio. this favorite son, favorite daughter strategy, you know, i get it. and it's something that's been employed 50 years ago. >> they don't need to work together to discuss it. everybody has to, you know, allocate scarce resources of time and funds. >> and everybody's running out of money. some of them have some money, but -- >> the super pacs aren't. >> they're all -- but it's not. >> so the point is, there's no point in kasich running a strong campaign in florida, and there's no point in rubio running a real strong campaign in ohio. they don't need to talk about that, they'll just do it. >> the checkbook will make that decision. >> it will be a long way for anybody to get to 1,237. if anybody does, the most likely one is trump, but there's a very good chance here that we're going to finish the primaries and nobody's going to be near $1,200. >> how do you, though, i mean, brad, we kept talking about this last night. he is driving turnout. this is -- you look at it and you've seen the numbers. it's a mirror image of '08.

literally the same super tuesday -- >> i think barack obama's on our side. >> okay, but if you look at it, what happened in '08, and it was a precursor, why isn't the party going, hallelujah! donald trump! this is great. >> the counties that rubio's carrying and the counties that cruz carried in texas, with turnout's up there too. donald trump is not the agent of this turnout, it's a clear of hillary clinton and four more years of the obama administration, just like democrats were motivated in '08 because they didn't want to extend the bush term. >> and some people are coming out to vote against trump. but we're happy to take the turnout and hope they'll come out again in the fall. >> but to deny him -- if he's the guy who has the most delegates going in, even if he's short, in the modern era, can you take this away from him? >> we have conventions for a reason. conventions choose the nominee. >> it's completely democratic. there are no establishment rule changes or rnc rule changes that happen. the voters will pick the delegates and the delegates will pick the nominees. >> look through the mirror the other way. what's your advice to donald trump? donald trump has an opportunity

here, last night, he was statesman donald trump. and if he behaves this way over the next 13 days, he could perhaps -- >> i think it's going to be very interesting to watch -- >> what should he do? >> i think it's going to be interesting to watch what happens in the debates. debates have traditionally been bad for trump. he's been unable to restrain himself, been out of control, gone after the other candidates, have done nothing to try to build a coalition of 50. we've always said trump's enemy is 50. so i think tomorrow night in the debate, we will get to put that to the test. it's very easy to be conciliatory in a victory speech, it's much more difficult to do it under fire. and we'll see if trump's cool enough to handle it. >> that's right. and, the other thing he needs to do, he's perfectly capable of giving a detailed policy presentation on an issue. >> he's never done it. >> he's never done it. >> he's perfectly capable of doing that. if you've got some tax policies written up and he ought to talk about them. because the voters he's getting are just mad at everything. he ought to be going for voters who might agree with him on issues. >> what should mitt romney -- what is the role that mitt romney should be playing and do you think it's the right role?

>> well, it's sort of a personal choice. i mean, obviously, he doesn't like donald trump. he doesn't think trump would be a good nominee. and i'm sure he'll say that, but, you know, it's his personal choice as the to how intensely he says it. >> but is it helpful if he doesn't back somebody? i mean -- >> it's more helpful if he doesn't. >> it is? >> yeah. >> but isn't it time for choosing? i mean, all this anti-trump money that's out there, i get it, but they're not advocating for somebody else, they're just advocating against. >> i don't think you're going to stop donald trump by the poo-bahs telling people how to vote. this is a choice voters have to make. and that's in -- so i don't think that's a role that any elder statesman like mitt romney can play. if he wants to raise money, he can raise money. but i don't know that direction from headquarters will work. >> and do you think, speaking of -- do you think at the end, charlie, and you and i were talking about '76 and all the different things you do there. there are still some filing deadlines. would you want to see somebody with the name i.d. of a mitt

romney go and try to deny trump delegates in a california? >> i don't think that would work, either. i think we have very good candidates in there. we have a four-way race now. and he ought to just let them go at it. i think the way it's going, that trump will not get 1,237 before the convention. and therefore, you could have anybody -- any of the four could become the nominee. but the people who want to help should send money to the super pacs that are doing the good job on negative ads against trump. >> charlie black, i'll leave it there. brad todd, thank you both. i still think paul ryan -- see, he's the chairman of that convention, isn't he? he's been in this position before? >> he's got a new job he needs to pay attention to. >> all right, guys. thanks very much. well, marco rubio is rallying right now in michigan. our own gabe gutierrez just caught up with marco rubio ahead of that event. we'll see what rubio says about donald trump, calling him a weak front-runner. brand new interview with the senator coming up right after this. and a look ahead at the road ahead and the roadblocks that

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we've within talking about how donald trump's rivals now have less than two weeks to stop him. and we want to show you a couple of our super tuesday maps that show why stopping the trump is going to be hard and why the clinton campaign should be very careful to not underestimate trump this fall if that is, indeed with the matchup. look at this map of virginia. that northeast corner up in the top of green, that's the washington, d.c. suburbs. but go out just a little bit farther from the city, and trump won all of those counties and that area is still high-income suburban washington. mitt romney won all but one of those counties in 2012 and those voters are now casting voters for trump. virginia's a swing at a time. and it's true, by the way, in georgia. rubio won fulton county, where atlanta is. he also won nearby dekalb and cobb counties. but there are 29 other counties

in the sprawling atlanta metro area. and trump won every single one of them. and just like in virginia, these are relatively wealthy suburbs, sort of the next level. you have the inner suburbs, kind of ex-sushy. big sign that trump is becoming increasingly palatable to some parts of the republican establishment. and it's a pattern that starting to look very familiar to marco rubio. he wins the big metropolitan areas in the state capitals, but nothing else. we've got much more on the road ahead. up next here on "mtp daily," right after this break. &t smalls expert? sure am. my staff could use your help staying in touch with customers. at&t can help you stay connected. am i seeing double? no ma'am. our at&t 'buy one get one free' makes it easier for your staff to send appointment reminders to your customers... ...and share promotions on social media? you know it! now i'm seeing dollar signs. you should probably get your eyes checked. good one babe. optometry humor. right now get up to $650 in credits to help you switch to at&t.

so strap yourselves in for action flo! small business edition. oh, no! i'm up to my neck in operating costs! i'll save the day! for plumbers and bakers and scapers of lawn, she's got insurance savvy you can count on. you chipped my birdbath! now you're gonna pay! not so fast! i cover more than just cars and trucks. ♪ action flo did somebody say "insurance"? children: flo! ♪ action flo cut! can i get a smoothie, please? ooh! they got smoothies? for me. . you're looking at live pictures of marco rubio in michigan. that's where my colleague, gabe gutierrez, caught up with the florida senator just a moment ago. we'll have that brand new interview for you right now. >> senator, ben carson will be not in tomorrow night's debate. how does that change the calculus for you in the debate and also for your campaign going forward? >> i don't know about the campaign going forward and what role he will have.

we'll miss ben, he's a fine gentleman. don't know him that well, but have got to know him over the last year. this is a very unusual election. who knows what happens next? >> what is your path moving forward. i know you keep talking about delegates. you have one win under your belt. >> i think the calendar's getting to the point where we're seeing more places we'll be successful. and we'll have to win. we knew last night would not be our best night. super tuesday was a priority for ted cruz, where he put a lot of his resources and time. we wanted to do well enough to get to the stage we're at now. we feel great about florida and moving forward after that. >> how can you win florida? >> we've won there before. >> but things have changed. donald trump lives there part-time. >> that's fine. i live there full-time. and so i'm excited about being in florida. we have a strong campaign and we have ten days to make our case and i feel good about what it's going to look like when we get -- >> does this end in anything else but a brokered convention for you --

>> i think you can ask that question of anybody in the race. i think donald trump's the front-runner and there are more delegates for him than against him. he's the weakest front-runner in the history of the republican party. usually when you have somebody in the position he's in, you have people begging everybody to coalesce around the front-runner. now you have everybody begging to coalesce against the front-runner. i think the question for donald trump is how does he seal this nomination? i don't think he ever gets to 1,237 delegates. >> and last question, do you think some of the personal attacks may have backfired? >> knno, they're not personal attacks. he has been personally attacking people for a year. i'm pointing out he's trying to carry out a con job on the american voter. i think we would have, had he had another day or less people on the ballot. >> thank you very much, senator. appreciate your time. thanks. >> gabe ambiguigutierrez joins live from shelby charter township, where rubio's event is underway. i have to say, i have rarely heard a presidential candidate admit, you know, i don't know bs

ben carson very well, but i've gotten to know him a little bit. it was refreshingly honest there. i'm curious, the campaign is openly talking about that their only path is a contested convention. >> reporter: yeah, chuck. right now, they're actually calling themselves underdogs right now, but they view themselves as the underdogs that can win. for the past couple of days, they have brought up this issue of a contested convention. right now, it appears, that the delegate math, and you've been reporting on it, it seems to suggest that his path to the nomination without a brokered convention would be very difficult. the question is right now, what happens in florida, and the campaign has said that they have to win in florida. rubio this morning early voted in florida, you saw how much stock he's placing in florida. something else to watch is tomorrow. this debate. the campaign is saying, okay, well, yes, they're hopely discounting those polls, that quinnipiac poll that has him down by double digits. they don't buy the poll. and they say a lot can happen between now and florida. they're talking about this debate tomorrow.

the other debate in miami. so they hope there's some sort of game changer that helps them get back into the game in florida. but as you say, chuck, you know, a lot of the critics are saying he's now 1 for 15, having just won minnesota. is this a strong message for somebody that wants to get the nomination? his critics have -- they're really piling on him today, the campaign says he's not dropping out. he's in this for the long haul. >> i buy that. >> gabe gutierrez, thanks very much. well, have we got a segment for you, open up your calendar apps, grab a pen and paper, we'll run through the voting schedule over the next 13 crucial days. because florida and ohio is the end game, not the beginning. starting wi starting with this saturday, march 5th, four contests on the line, caucuses in kansas, kentucky, and mae, and a primary in louisiana. only republicans, though independents allowed. cruz and rubio will both visit three of those states. rubio's only win and two of cruz's have been in caucus

states, because it's usually just party members. that tells you something here. by the way, for the democrats, there are caucuses in kansas and nebraska. nebraska republicans hold their event in may and they, too, have louisiana primary. the next day, democrats hold caucuses in maine and republicans will have a primary in puerto rico, which is part of, by the way, the marco rubio calculus. he actually plans on doing a quick stop there. tuesday, march 8th, another big day. michigan, as you just saw where rubio is, and mississippi. primaries on each side. and the hawaiian republican caucuses. john kasich is going hard at michigan, with at least five events from tomorrow through voting day. they're making it a bus trip. march 12th will be a convention for d.c. republicans. yes, there are, both d.c. republicans will get together, i'm half-kidding there, three of them will get together and have this event. there's also a democratic caucus in the northern mariana islands. tom delay fans will remember what those are about. and a republican convention takes place in guam. as we'll tell you, every single

delegate counts. and finally we get to the day of reckoning. florida, illinois, missouri, north carolina, ohio. can you get any bigger than that? lots of democrats on both sides. this is where the stop-trump goalposts are moved right now. remember, on the republican side, the contests in florida and ohio are fully winner-take-all states. whoever comes out in florida will grab all 99 delegates, same in ohio where 66 delegates are on the line. joining me to talk about these story lines, over these crucial 13 days is my partner in crime, our senior nbc political editor, mark murray. this is part of this, open, closed, half hope, all this stuff, this stuff matters. we saw this last night, oklahoma and arkansas, brad todd bringing this up, where trump struggled in places where they were closed primaries, where no independents could vote. walk me through this map, where that's going to be an advantage for the stop-trump movement and a disadvantage for trump.

>> yeah, you know, ted cruz has some opportunities in the next two weeks. and particularly as we head into the louisiana primary, and it's not only just the open and close situation, it's also geography that's really helped ted cruz in this. but, yes, you end up getting to a caucus contest like in kansas, kansas looks a lot like you would end up seeing in minnesota, where marco rubio ended up winning. but what's really amazing to me, chuck, is that we've covered super tuesday every which way. 595 delegates were up for grabs on super tuesday. the next two weeks, you're going to have almost 700 delegates -- >> let's pause there a minute. 700 delegates over the next two weeks. >> and that will be once we've reached march 15th and get through all the contests -- >> how many delegates are left after that? >> only 40% will be left. we will have gone through 60% of the delegates. that's why we'll have a good idea, is your nominee going to be donald trump or is there going to be an anti-donald trump. >> so essentially, what is donald trump's first magic number on march 15th? is it 650? what's the number they need to

prevent him from getting to that makes this 1,237 mark impossible for him to reach? >> chuck, i think the easiest way to kind of almost look at it is donald trump probably needs one of the two winner-take-all states. >> needs at least one -- >> doesn't get both? >> if he doesn't win both, i think we are going to be headed into that world of -- this kind of contested convention where anything's up for grabs. but donald trump wins both or just one of the two, he's probably still in the driver's seat for that. and, again, it's worth noting that while a lot of people think that somehow john kasich might still be able to win in ohio, that you end up having marco rubio able to hold on in florida, the polling right now shows donald trump ahead in both states. >> all right, mississippi, is there going to be anything there, or is this going to look more like alabama and tennessee? >> i think it's going to look like alabama and tennessee. but the one advantage, and we talk about that has helped donald trump, his ability to go anywhere and still pick off delegates. that is something we haven't seen for ted cruz or marco rubio. any contest, donald trump will pick up delegates, the question

is, how strong is he going to be? but mississippi probably looks a whole lot more like alabama and georgia states in which donald trump ends up -- >> just dominates. and that to me is still a surprise, how strong he was in the deep south. all right against, by the way, two southerners. >> right! and donald trump also winning in massachusetts. so that geographical diversity that donald trump has, going forward is a big advantage for him. >> i know you're coming back. thank you much. still ahead, a critical abortion case gets its day in the supreme court. we're going to have an update on the arguments and what to expect with the first big case after the death of justice scalia. are we just staring at a 4-4 automatic? stay tuned. vo: across america,

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it takes a lot for us to step away from the presidential campaign, but this is a pretty big story. big news at the supreme court today. just one day after president obama met with senate leadership and the judiciary committee members from both sides of the

aisle regarding a potential successor for the late justice, scla antonin scalia, the supreme court heard arguments as hundreds rallied outside the course. the case involves a 2013 texas law that restricts doctors who perform abortions in women ee's clinics and could have a massive impact for years to come. one effect could be, what effect will justice scalia's death have on the outcome? >> joining me now on set, scotus blog editor, amy howe, and from the front steps of the supreme court, our justice correspondent, pete williams. pete, let me start with you. so help me out here. what is the question in front of the court? >> the question is whether this texas law is unconstitutional, whether it is too much of a burden on a woman's right to choose, violating the fundamental right to access to abortion. this texas law has two components, it says that doctors performing abortions have to have admitting privileges at nearby hospitals and it says the clinics themselves have to be built to the same standards as

ambulatory surgical centers. now, the court is evenly divided now with justice scalia gone, four liberals, four conservatives. the four more liberal members of the court seem pretty clearly to believe that this law is unconstitutional. they say there's no real medical reason that abortions are among the safest procedures and all this concern about having hospitals available nearby, there are other procedures where the complication rate is much higher. so they say, this law, the justifications for women's health are all a pre-text. the law, they say, is simply intended to make it harder to get abortions and therefore it's unconstitutional. three, of the remaining conservative members seem to think the law the permissible, that texas has at least a rational basis. so that leaves the deciding vote, justice anthony kennedy, a little bit difficult to read, but i would say this, chuck, it didn't seem like justice kennedy was eager to vote to uphold this law. so that leaves the prospect of a tie, but he also suggested, as did some of the other justices, that maybe the court just

doesn't know enough about whether texas had legitimate concerns for passing this law, what kind of effect is it having on women. so several of them suggested sending it back to the lower courts to gather more evidence and then come back here. of course, that would be another year, year and a half, maybe two years, by which maybe the supreme court would have nine members. >> amy, okay, let's say it's -- first of all, help me out here. if it's 4-4, what did the lower court rule? >> the lower court upheld the law and said it did not violate a women's right -- >> so a 4-4 keeps the law if place? >> exactly. it keeps the law in place. so it would be the law in texas and any other state that's governed by the fifth circuit court of appeals, but it wouldn't set a nationwide precedent. >> so this is where justice kennedy has to make this decision. 4-4, it's not like he is -- he is making a decision. >> he is. >> so the equivalent might as well be 5-4. if he doesn't want it to be upheld, he's got to go with the liberals and go 5-3. >> he's got to go 5-3 to strike

down the law or he could try to put together a majority of the five justices to send the case back to the lower courts, to kick the can down the road for a while. >> and we heard pete outline that scenario. based on what you watched, what's the possibility of that? >> i think it's definitely a possibility. i think the one thing he and the court probably don't want to do is to divide 5-4 and not decide this issue now. i think they feel like it might just make the court look like it's not getting work done. justice alito gave a speech a week or so ago at georgetown university, where he said, having eight members on the court isn't going to stop us from getting the work done. and i think they want to make that clear. >> i was just going to say, pete, do you get that sense, when you watch the -- i mean, you know, look, these guys don't, this is not like covering politicians, i know this, you don't have the same types of, sometimes, off the records, where you get the sense of what they want to do here, but are they trying, do you think they're actively realizing,

trying to avoid 5-4s wherever they can right now, just to prove they can be decisive. >> reporter: i think as a general matter, they do, but i don't have the slightest idea if that was in their heads. i'm sure it was, but they gave no outward indication of it. i would say that the liberals were more spirited in attacking the law than the conservatives today were spirited in defending the law. and so the inertia seems to be on one side. that's where we, i think, you really notice the absence of justice scalia, who undoubtedly would have been really leading the conservative attack on the challengers of this law, and stepping up to its defense. there was no real, strong, forceful voice for the law. you have justice kennedy sort of tentative about it, raising questions. he said at one point, maybe the totality of this is to increase the number of surgical abortions in texas, because it's harder to get a medical, so-called, you know, where you take a couple of pills abortion. maybe that's medically a bad

idea. if he is going to vote to uphold it, he wasn't very eager to do so. and all the signs seem to be that he just does -- is not quite there. >> picking up on pete's point there, amy, we saw in the absence of scalia, justice thomas decided to participate in questioning for the first time in a long time. >> alito or thomas, is that who we're going to be the leader of the conservative wing? is that what we're waiting to see? is one of them about to step up? >> it's hard to -- >> do you get a sense yet? >> it's hard to have that sense. i agree with pete completely that, you know, justices, particularly justice scalia, will, in fact, sort of jump -- would have jumped in to, in essence, make the state's argument for it, in some cases today. >> and that was missing -- >> that was missing today. you definitely saw it from justice ginsburg on the liberal side in particular. >> amy howe, pete williams, thank you both. up ahead, we've got the ws. ben carson says he doesn't see a path to the presidency, but some peach are pushing him to jump

into running for another job. i'll give you the details. there's only 17,000 people running for this seat. we'll be right back. hi i'm kristie. and i'm jess. and we are the bug chicks. we're a nano-business. windows 10 really helps us get the word out about how awesome bugs are. kids learn to be brave and curious and all kids speak the language of bug. "hey cortana, find my katydid video." oh! this is so good. if you're trying to teach a kid about a proboscis. just sketch it on the screen. i don't have a touch screen on my mac, i'm jealous of that. you put a big bug in a kids hands

and change their world view. [ laugh ] everhas a number.olicy but not every insurance company understands the life behind it. for those who've served and the families that have supported them, we offer our best service in return. usaa. we know what it means to serve. get an insurance quote and see why 92% of our members plan to stay for life. you're looking at live pictures here of hillary clinton event in new york city. there's the new york governor, andrew cuomo, taking the stage there. unless something extraordinary happens, we pretty much know who the democratic nominee will be in july at this point.

hillary clinton won 7 out of the 11 states last night, including a state that bernie sanders was trying to win, massachusetts. she picked that one off. clinton racked up nearly 500 delegates to sanders' 337, and then add in the superdelegates and she has got a whopping near 600-delegate lead. that means sanders has to win 59% of the remaining delegates to catch clinton. that's a near-impossible task, considering the way proportional allocation works in all contests. of course, you never say "never" in politics. the unexpected can always occur, and there are some things that are not in the control of the clinton campaign, including a certain investigation taking place with the fbi. and sanders clearly has decided not to get out of this race anytime soon. one of the reasons, though, why clinton is in such a commanding position in this race, sanders' got crushed last night with a key democratic constituency, african-american voters. look at these exit polls, just like south carolina, alabama,

clinton, 91% of the black voters. 90% in arkansas, 85% in georgia, and in oklahoma, clinton still won the african-american vote there close to 50 points. same story in texas, tennessee, virginia, where clinton got more than 80% of the african-american vote in all of those states. simply put, any democratic presidential candidate who struggles with african-american voters as much as sanders did last night isn't going to have much of a chance to win that party's nomination. we'll be right back. ♪ ♪ ♪ for your retirement, you want to celebrate the little things, because they're big to you.

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awe, to come back on super tuesday, of all days, and this wacky presidential race. the what. could it be senator brns. carson aides tell nbc that some are pushing a run for his senate seat in florida. carson is technically a florida resident. now no longer a maryland resident. the campaign says the senate is not carson's goal. filing deadline is in a couple of months. now to the where, it's alabama where six-term senator richard chelby won his primary rather handedly. he got under 70%. 65% of the vote with a big donald trump-like turnout, not too bad. and it was enough to avoid a runoff. now to the when, president obama will be isn't the stands for a baseball game in cuba. during his historic visit, he'll watch the tampa bay rays play the cuban national team. now to the why. two senate primary candidates are getting a boost from the white house, by the way. the president and the veep both

endorsed simultaneously two candidates in senate races in ohio and florida. ted strickland in ohio and patrick murphy in florida. both, by the way, have pretty tough primary challenges. national dems do dems do believe rob port man and murphy is fending off graceland, who is butting heads with democrats. voters go to the polls on march 15th. later in the summer, clearly democratic leaders want to beat back grayson's bid. we'll be right back. you're an at&t small business expert? sure am. my staff could use your help staying in touch with customers. at&t can help you stay connected. am i seeing double? no ma'am. our at&t 'buy one get one free' makes it easier for your staff to send appointment reminders to your customers... ...and share promotions on social media? you know it! now i'm seeing dollar signs. you should probably get your eyes checked. good one babe. optometry humor. right now get up to $650 in credits to help you switch to at&t.

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donald trump is not the agent of this turnout it's the fear of hillary clinton and the obama administration. >> it's a delegate race. he has a quarter of the delegates he needs to get the 1237. >> i don't think you're going to stop donald trump by the poo-ba as how to vote. >> nobody is going to be near 1,200. >> you have everyone begging to coalesce against the front-runner. the question for donald trump is how does he seal this nomination. >> some earlier sound from the mixed tape. now time for the lid. back with me is political editor mark morales, senior editor rames, and anna greenberg. an nar anna, odd to start with you, however, you and your democracy core, you did this big poll of

republican voters to see just is trump toxic or not. what is your conclusion? is trump a viable general election candidate or not? >> well, we looked at a poll of republicans, and showed that there was a block of moderate republicans who simply could not vote for donald trump primarily because they are socially liberal, they believe in science, they think climate change is real. they believe in funding planned parenthood. a whole set of issues. >> all people that were romney voters. >> presumably. for sure. about 30% of them said they were rather not vote or vote for hillary clinton if donald trump was the nominee. on the other hand, the poll shows his strength. he brings together two key elements of the republican electorate, anti-immigration fervor and a deep hatred of obama administration. tea party republicans. >> is there a lost or missing

white vote that he is bringing here? is there a working class white vote that wasn't there for romney that you see evidence that donald trump is bring sng. >> well, remember, barack obama did very badly with white working class voters, very, very badly. so hillary clinton can do as badly with those voters. >> you don't think she could do worst? >> i don't think so. there was obviously a huge racial element to it, but i mean, obama did terrible with them. >> ramesh, i know you've seen that, the never trump people really used it, see, see, this is going to be problematic. what do you see? >> i think that donald trump is the most unusual front runner. the party is not following in line behind him. i would expect if he is the nominee, as looks likely, that his share of the republican vote is going to be lower, going to be significantly lower than mitt romney's or even john mccain in the bad republican year of 2008. >> you don't see any opportunity for him to expand the

electorate? at least in the northern part of the country. >> he might bring in some of the white voters without college degrees, but i don't believe there is any reason to believe that romney found the floor for the hispanic floor. there is no reason to believe that trump will do better with college degrees. i suspect that will be lower as well. all the head to head polls we're seeing suggests he starts out at a lower level. an x factor with trump. even if his average is lower, there is so much variance because he is such an unusual character. it's a very risky bet. >> we went through the opening and close, and you did something quick and put it altogether. eight of the next 13 contests are closed primaries or caucuses, meaning only registered republicans can participate. as we noted before, that is very helpful, particularly if you're ted cruz. you look at the states, kansas, kentucky, maine, one caucus,

hawaii, missouri closed, you could see helpful to cruz, should be helpful to rubio. >> if i'm donald trump, and my path benefits by having people not part of the republican process for the most part, you're looking at a place like mississippi that might be able to help you out, but yeah, looking at the map right now, and ted cruz with a little momentum, this should be something he capitalizes on. >> this to me is the 13 days if you can't she trump down now, there is no other two weeks to do it. >> that's right. i mean, i think that, you know, florida and ohio are the key. >> we know that. but i didn't realize how much potential there was to deny him delegates in between. >> that's right. there was a chance too to chip away at his support that makes people get offer the bandwagon during this interim period. but you know, it's come awfully late, the ad campaign, apparently going to start, has

come awfully. >> i'm sorry, again, i'll say what i said this morning. the best way to stop him, go to a time machine. let's go back to the democratic side. you saw hillary clinton pivot. i think bernie sanders seems to be on board with the idea that he'll go after trump and layoff of hillary clinton. do you buy that? >> i do. i think his speech sounded a bit like a concession speech. it's about the movement, the issues, and he didn't mention her at all. no contrast between him and hillary clinton. i think that this is going to be about pushing the people who give money to him to be able to push his message. he has a lot of money to spend. >> we said this before, he has already won. >> the bernie sanders of three or four months ago would have taken this in a heartbeat. they got incredibly -- the math is the math and it looks tough to be able to take over when it comes to delegates. >> i don't know if the

supporters feel the same way. i mean, i think bernie sanders is, you know, can be very classy and has been. not all of his supporters have been classy. >> we'll see. they all rallied around hillary then. thank you all. we'll be back tomorrow with more "mtp daily." my pals, john and mark, have "with all due respect" right now. chris, thank you very much. i appreciate it. this has been an amazing -- >> happy to be noticed by donald. >> all over the country, all over the world, but for purposes of tonight. >> are you stupid? on topic. on topic. >> beautiful. when you see so many other companies, now leaving, they used to move from new york to florida. or they would move from new jersey to someplace else, chris. but now -- >> this is the crap i have to hear. >> a friend of mine who is in the excavation business and i always orders caterpillar. >> nobody cares. >> it takes courage to run. it t