that's kansas. in kentucky, the republican caucuses there too early to call. on the democratic side, the caucus in kansas between hillary clinton and bernie sanders is too early to call, as well. we will have the first characterization in the maine republican caucus in just a minute. as i said, this is a very interesting time for our fight for this nomination and both parties. we had five contests so far and now we're getting the call right now. and here it is. in maine, it's too early to call up there. in maine and those republican caucuses. let me bring in our panel right now. president of the democratic national committee. heather mcgo, msnbc political director steve cornack kornacki

>> the fact that he is winning. polls that had donald trump up and the margin that ted cruz is racking up here in kansas, more than two to one. the other story to pay attention to here in kansas is rubio there. back in third place. rubio had blown up his schedule this week to come into kansas to hold extra events in kansas. he thought he had a chance to win this state. not only is he running third here, the keys right here around kansas city. johnson county right outside of kansas city. home to a lot of college educated, a little more moderate republican voters. these are the kind of voters we've seen rubio doing very well with. it's why we thought he won kansas. if you look in that part of the state, too. a distant place for marco rubio. two stories here in kansas. one much, much better for ted cruz. not only winning, but winning by such a margin and marco rubio faring much, much worse than we expected. also show you as we did here in maine. the results trickling. this is kansas.

this is maine. the results trickling in and always takes a long time to come in. what does this mean for the all-important delegate race. that's the question on everybody's mind. this is what we can show you what it looked like coming into tonight. we're confident what the delegate count will look like. the delegate count would look something like this. cruz right now would be adding about 28. heeds he'd hit 284. donald trump would be adding 19. he would hit and he'd hit 124 and kasich would be hitting four from maine and he would be hitting 31. early on that is how the delegate math is moving. the things we're looking forward to and kentucky will get results very shortly on that and then louisiana. louisiana the polls have shown donald trump doing very well right there. but there are hints in these early results today. donald trump doing better in both states than we expected. we'll see if that spills into

louisiana later. >> let me bring in our panel tonight. heather mcgee and former rnc chair michael steele and political analyst. thank you for joining us. it seems to me that we had debates and they don't seem to matter at all, heather. cruz was under water during the debate this week and it just didn't seem to be working for him. people were saying he wasn't even in the fight. >> i think that was good for him. you had rubio throwing him in front of the truck that is trump and ted cruz looked like a grown up by just not being in the sand box. i think it debate helped him even though he didn't say much. >> the key thing is we're talking about a caucus state. the dynamices are much different, number one. >> can we get rid of those? >> i think we should. >> they are undemocratic. i think they distort the process in many respects. the primary is like a real election and like the november call to action and you have to go out and do your thing. but keep in mind this is a caucus tonight. the three caucuses tonight to one primary in louisiana.

so, but regardless of all of it, the dynamic is good for cruz. what caucuses do is very important. they create momentum and perception of momentum and they create real momentum and get the notice here. it's momentum. that's what cruz needs now to lock down for conservatives around the country because the key thing, the difference between last week and this week. everything is republicans voting for republicans. no independents, no conservative democrats crossing over. so, this is conservatism at its best within the party and that conservative activist are voting for who they want and so far tonight it's cruz. >> heather, explain to me what the cruz appeal is for people who don't get it. i think i get the trump appeal and the kasich appeal and rubio appeal. cruz. is it just hard right? >> the basic faur furry at the republican party is the rigged sort of corrupt political

system. >> economy is getting better. >> it's actually at the republican leadership. that the republican leadership has basically in their minds have been able to stop president obama from, you know, stepping out his front door. right. progressives would say republicans have been unbelievably obstructionist. but at the base of the republican party, there is this sense that they keep electing people on a wave and they're not st stopping the president from doing anything. that anger at the republican leadership is what ted cruz personifies. >> when we see congress having an approval rating of 9% in the single digits. we are now seeing that taking shape in a presidential election. that's what i've been thinking, too. the anger against establishment leadership we have been watching since 2010. the freedom caucus is now full fledge into the presidential. it's not new. >> i saw it. i saw it my first days on the job as rnc chairman. i began to get the sense that something outside the country was different from what we thought was going on inside the

party. and the activists now have taken hold and ted cruz has come to m embody that more than anyone else. he stood up to the senate leadership and stood up to the washington crowd in a way that no other republican has. which is why they don't like him. and that they like about him, you know, across the country. so, the reality for ted cruz is he's now got the building blocks in place to take this thing straight into the convention. and to really play hard to make the case to conservatives that i'm the true constitutional conservative. >> i think there's something about his face, too. expression. god given face. but he has this expression of righteous that somebody just smacked me. you know what i mean. i've just been wronged and i think i'm just asking positively, is that what sells the conservatives? >> i'll be very honest. that, you know, the average voter who is looking that nonverbals while she's washing her dishes and just sort of looks up.

that is what ayes progressives hope we actually face. i think it's off putting and something that is not what people are actually going to want to follow. >> you think progressives won't like that. but conservatives do. >> conservatives who are really angry like it but your average voter who is not paying a lot of attention but just goes off of their gut sees something sour about ted cruz's very demeanor and it's not very telling. >> jacob is covering the trump campaign down in west palm beach, florida. jacob, thank you. how do trump people look at it tonight and these choices and these verdicts that will come in and make the headlines tomorrow. >> so, the trump campaign is confident that their candidate will be the nominee, but they're going to say, look, generally he doesn't do well in caucuses. he hasn't done well. remember, iowa, minnesota, alaska caucuses. the polls had him ahead in those states, but he lost anyway. but, here's the thing. he talked about fraud in the iowa election in the caucus.

what is he going to say now? so, the campaign is going to say he doesn't do well generally in the caucuses, which is true. i think we should look hard and be watching closely louisiana. the primary there. how close is it going to be? will donald trump lose there. if he does lose there or if the race is really tight there, then maybe we really do have a tightening race and real impact from that never trump or stop trump movement. he is on his way now to the west palm beach golf course. the dining room has been turned into a press conference room. he is going to give, again, instead of a party a press conference tonight like he did on super tuesday. the only playbook we expect him to show up with a couple dozen friends and take some questions and give a victory speech. we know he likes to win. so far tonight he's not winning. >> how many flags tonight? >> how many flags? >> can you look behind? >> two, four, six. >> i always want to know how presidential he looks tonight. seems like the number of flags is a good reading on that.

thank you so much for that reporting. let's bring in kristen welker covering the clinton campaign from flint, michigan. it's really important to hillary clinton to show that she's out to re-dress the situation with the water, the lead pipe water in flint. this has become a big part of her campaign, hasn't it? >> a huge part of her campaign, chris. tomorrow night she'll face off with senator sanders here in flint at a debate and you can expect her to tout all of the action she has taken to deal with the crisis. remember, she was the first candidate to visit flint tomorrow. her daughter, chelsea, and the mayor of flint are going to unveil a new initiative to deal with the crisis. she will paint herself as the candidate who has been most focused on this issue which is impacting so many people here in flint and has resignated quite frankly all across the country. secretary clinton has also as you know pivoting to some extent to the general election and increasingly taking aim at donald trump. i have been talking to her campaign officials throughout

the day and they say they're not taking any votes for granted. not here in michigan and not today. louisiana set to weigh in. she's hoping to win that race. but she's also bracing for some lauss because senator sanders looking good in kansas. looking good in nebraska and she's going to have to come out tomorrow and rally her supporters and say, look, i am the frontrunner, but, yes, i did have these two losses and she's going to have to convince them that the momentum is still on her side. and that's going to be her challenge tomorrow night when she faces off with senator sanders here. chris? >> the challenge of leadership. when things go wrong, you have to keep people with you. thank you, kristen welker. joining us right now is new york mayor bill de blasio. hillary clinton supporter who managed her senate campaign effectively. mayor, thank you very much for coming. i have been looking at the international magazines that airport today. two of them now. i think we'll show it on the screen here. "the economist" and it shows hillary clinton going up against donald trump. as if it's all done. that's two new york people run

against each other. tell me about it. this is subway series. subway series. how does that look to you? if you had to contest that one and put a tout oing on that one. >> first, no one should assume this thing is over on either side. a lot to be done and that attitude of a lot of fight up ahead. no new york valus to donald trump. he does not represent what this place is about. >> never show up at mets or yankees games. >> he never shows up at anything in the city. but more importantly we're a city of inclusion and immigrant city and you know what this place is about and he does not reflect those valus. >> is he a new yorker? >> he's a new yorker in terms of where he lived, but he does not represent the values. he is out of step with what's happening in this city. >> the conservatives accuse him of having new york valus. how can it both be true? they say he's a new yorker and you say he's not. >> i think i can speak with authority representing 8.5 million people. especially today. but, let me tell you that matchup, first of all, no one should take it lightly. i'm a proud democrat and a proud

hillary clinton supporter. but that would be certainly a real fight in a general election. but i think one of the things that catches up with trump is hatred and devisiveness just aren't american values. >> why does "new york post" love him. >> great copy. >> why does the regular working people who read that paper want to read about trump? why does any working guy seem to be interested in trump? fascinated with him. >> this is where we should pay attention to trump and learn something. there's a lot of frustrated people in this country. look, part of them the reagan democrats who feel that the democratic party didn't address their economic reality. but they felt left behind. and in the last 30 years, the statistics say that the middle class has been stuck economically. there is anger and frustration at that. the answer is not donald trump. it should be a robust democratic party with a populous economic message. what happened this year is two democrats who both want to

attack the wealthy and both want to raise wages and benefits. this could be the beginning of a progressive era because finally the democratic party is speaking to the reagan democrats. >> but you don't think those working people out there look upon the democratic parties of wine and cheese elite party. cultural elite party looking down his nose at working people. you know what i'm talking about. >> i do know what you're talking about. >> how come that happens. >> you remember, i remember when ronald reagan came to the floor. >> can we take a break? >> yeah. the opposing candidate to your candidate, bernie sanders out in michigan right now. let's watch. >> all right. what i'm going to try to do tonight is to do something very radical in american politics. i'm going to tell you the truth. here is something about the truth. the truth is not always

pleasant. you know, i wish i could come before you and tell you everything is great, don't worry about anything. but if i told you that, i would be lying to you. so, what i have to do as a candidate for president is to be honest with you. because i believe that if we have thecourage to look our problems right in the face and if we don't bury them, we can address them. we can resolve them. so, what are some of the issues that are out there that you all know about but we have to bring them right up. number one. >> campaign finance. >> you know what, i was just going to say that. you have to give me a little bit of time here. gentleman just hit the nail on the head. look, i'm the former chairman of the u.s. senate committee on veterans affairs. and i have tried to do everything i can and will

continue as president to do everything i can to protect the men and women who put their lives on the line to defend us. but as the chairman as that committee i had the honor of meeting a whole lot of veterans from world war ii on to iraq and afghanistan and i thought you look out at these people and some of them who came home without legs or arms, they put their lives on the line to defend american democracy. and i worry very much about what is going on in american democracy today. and at the top of my list is the need to overturn this disastrous citizens united supreme court decision. you know what democracy is about? democracy is about a meeting like this where people come out and you can agree with me. you can disagree with me and

vote for me, vote against me. that is called democracy. but what democracy is not about is billionaires buying elections. a few of the billionaires. you know about the. smart group of people. okay. a few other billionaires will spend approximately $900 million to buy this election for candidates who are going to represent the wealthy and the powerful. when you have one family and a few other billionaires spending more money in an election than the entire democratic party or

republican party, that is not democracy. that is and we are going to stop that. >> mr. mayor, you're for millry clinton but this is good stuff for democrats. coming out against the elite. we're just talking about the cultural elite. this is the economic elite running the country. >> gets back to what you were saying a moment ago. the democratic party did not take on those elite sufficiently and that's where it lost a lot of its base. that's where the reagan democrats came from. ronald reagan sounded like he was taking on the status quo more than democrats were. now the democratic party is finding its soul, again. getting back to its roots and getting back to the idea that we have to fight for working people. so, when you see democrats both democratic frontrunners saying the same thing about raising taxes on the wealthy and higher wages and benefits and speaking up for campaign finance reform to keep that big money out of the system, that's how you get back to people feel disaffected

from the democratic party. and i think it's been a long time coming. the last election, 2014, democrats ran away from talking about working people's issues. they wouldn't talk about the tax and wealthy and wouldn't talk about obama care. >> when everybody comes to new york, i used to see the senators on the plane,en the shuttle. used to have one guy with him. you probably know some of these consultants with them. they come to new york because that is where the money is. not going to trash wall street but they just got a pay day from them. >> when people in this country believe wall street let them down and believe the economy was wrecked and the foreclosure and job loss came from one place and no democrat would take them on. why should they believe in democrats. both democrats saying we're going to the root of the matter. >> i can't let you leave without my favorite stump question. what is the difference for a person out there left, right or center if there is any more center left. what is the difference between a democrat what you are and a

socialist? >> democrat today in this country wants to do the kinds of things that will fundamentally change the status quo, taxing the wealthy and raising wage in the benefits. things like pre-k and change working families' lives. now, the problem in this country -- >> what is a socialist. >> the problem in this country is until this word got so warped that we lost its essential meaning. a socialist is someone who believes in a role of government that is redistributive. that is not the same thing that would happen in a free market economy like this. a social democrat like in western europe is something that i think is actually where a lot of democrats are. >> because they're modified. >> right. >> but a true socialist believes in moderate change, right? >> i would agree. but i think a lot of people today in this country are social democrats or even democratic socialists and now the conversation can be had. >> it's in the polling. some of the states i'm for socialism. so, i think it's social --

>> it is the result of the great recession. great recession just like the great depression before has changed the politics and changed the terminology. >> you're the politician, but i'll tell you what changed for the 20-year-old. $100,000 in student debt. what was set i'm a debtor. i don't like capitalism. if you were starting your own business, capitalism would be great to you. but most men and women are coming out of their mid-20s owing hundreds of thousands of dollars in some case if they go to law school. you don't like capitalism. >> all politics is both personal and local. i think you've heard that somewhere and that is why, you're right. debt you lose your job and you get your house foreclosed and you realize what is wrong with the status quo. >> the vietnam war was a big issue to get involved. the draft. that was politics. that was local. anyway, thank you mayor bill de blasio. much more this evening as we await the results and we'll head to new orleans right after this break. live election coverage continues after this.

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comcast business. built for business. welcome back tamsnbc live election coverage as voters in five states tonight choose their nominee for president. here's what we know right now. in maine, that about 12% of the vote in the republican caucus is too early to call. in kentucky, a smaller amount of the vote is in and the republican caucus there is also too early to call. in kansas, the caucuses there have been over for a couple of hours. still no vote in for the democratic caucus between hillary clinton and bernie sanders. on the republican side in kansas, ted cruz is the winner. so, cruz won kansas today. heather and michael are with us. what does this mean that cruz picks up one, heather? >> it means he'll tell a story and the media will report it which is that he got momentum. he is the odds on nontrump favorite and that's exactly what he needs. and i think the way that rubio

is apparently doing so poorly is actually even more important. >> michael, what is the rubio problem? >> no constituency. there is no base of support for him around the country and this is reflected in his own state. i mean, you look at his polling from the very beginning of this race in florida. for him as a sitting senator not to be competitive, at least competitive says a lot about the lack of constituency that is behind him and rallies around him. he's got, he gives a great speech. he has a great story. great bio. all of that. >> it doesn't have people. >> it doesn't have people. >> doesn't have people in the republican base because the unifying thing for republicans right now is opposition to immigration. and i think it is true that even though he's tacked to the right on immigration, that is where -- >> he was very effectively in the middle and was for finding a compromise solution. >> that's not what the republicans want right now. >> that's what hurt mitt romney. he didn't stand on and romney

care in massachusetts or you know immigration. >> the state that is having a real primary today. a nice little primary. steve kornacki. >> about 9:00 we'll start getting results from louisiana. first of all, donald trump is getting his clock cleaned in kansas right now. he is in deep trouble in maine. the votes are just starting to come in in kentucky. we'll see how that one goes. but we could, could end up in a situation where it comes down to louisiana to see if donald trump is even going to put a win on the board tonight. so, psychologically, that could be important. also there is just the question of, did something change in this republican race in the last few days. since that debate, since mitt romney came out and sounded the warning bell. if donald trump is underperforming across the board tonight, that could signal a bigger change in this race. now, what talook for in louisiana. right now the expectations coming into today is that donald

trump will win this state and will win it comfortably. this is the last poll, university of new orleans. trump with a double-digit lead. here are the warning signs. first of all, he is underperforming so far in other states tonight. second of all, take a look at this. in 2012, these were the results in louisiana. this was a rick santorum state over mitt romney. one of the things we are seeing, we are seeing it in kansas tonight. we've seen it in other states like oklahoma. rick santorum states are becoming ted cruz states. in this election. so that suggests there is a potential constituency here for cruz. also, in 2012, nearly 60% of the electorate in this state in louisiana and the republican primary white evangelical christians. again, a group that ted cruz is going after. but the most important factor may well be in louisiana, a change to the rules. in advance of this primary. the republican party decided they are not going to do what they did four years ago when they allowed independents and democrats to cross over and vote in the primary. this time for the first time in louisiana on the republican side, it is a closed primary.

a closed primary. these closed events we're starting to see donald trump maybe having a lot more trouble in closed primaries than in places where democrats and independents can participate. a big test shaping up in louisiana. the expectation coming into today a trump win. if he meets that expectation, great news for him. but if this is close or he loses, that could signal something big is happening in this race, chris. >> great question and great drama between now and 9:00 when we will know the answer, steve. jarvis is with me and deputy opinion editor. thank you, jarvis. what did you think of what steve just said in terms of your state having this recent history of supporting santorum and santorum's vote being a leading indicator where ted cruz does very well. really strong evangelicals. >> this election has defied all types of expectations and prognostications thus far. i don't think anybody would have expected donald trump to have performed as well as he did in south carolina, for example. so, i don't know if that is

going to be predictive or not. it's an inest thering thing to look at. but as you have already talked about, his polls showed him double-digit lead. just this past week. so, it would be a really big shock, i think, if that proved to be false. >> tell us bout the democratic side while we have you, jarvis. large african-american vote. is it a majority vote in the democratic primary down there? >> repeat your question, chris. >> is the african-american vote pretty much a majority down there in louisiana? >> i believe it is 48% of the vote and this has been a state where barack obama has done incredibly well among african-american voters here in louisiana. and my expectation would be that hillary clinton would do, if not as well, approaching that level. >> what has been the influence of bernie sanders? is he still somewhat of a distant notion to a lot of people down there? >> i believe so.

i saw a funny anecdote today from a friend who voted in shreveport where he said that he saw a black woman being asked, do you feel the burn. and she said, what? what does that mean? are you voting for bernie sand snrz and she said, who is that? so, for a person who has gotten so much attention to not even have, you know, penetrate some people's consciousness here in louisiana says a lot. you qknow, i think in his geographical area in the northeast he's a household name, but not so much in the south. >> let me ask you about the current and continuing feeling people have towards the president down there. is he wibeloved? give me a word for it barack obama in louisiana. >> if you're a democrat in the south and if you're a black democrat in the south, especially, i think this has been a great eight years. you have loved seeing a plaque family in the white house. you love the fact that there is a democrat in the white house. and i think that you still have

that kind of excitement. and if nothing else, secretary clinton is trying to hitch her wagon to barack obama and at least in so far as she can get the people who voted for him to vote for her. >> her challenge, of course, is the general election. should she be the nominee to change course on that because you can't run as an incumbent after eight years. ask you to immediately say i'm going to be different and gentler. you have to change gears on that baby. >> yeah, i would think that that is the, i guess, the particular challenge to anybody of the same party has when somebody has been in there for eight years. i think she also has to convince some people who have appreciated the last eight years that she's going to at least continue that progress at the same time convince people who are di disaffected by the last 12 years or 8 years that she will do something noteworthy to change things. >> great job with the deputy

editorial position there. what history ran before you there. it's great to have you on, jarvis. thank you. >> thanks, chris. much more this super saturday. that's what we're calling it. you're watching msnbc super saturday coverage right now. we'll be right back after this. >> we are dependent on the working families of america and i appreciate that.

we're watching the vote now as we wait for results in the outstapding races tonight in maine, kentucky and kansas. polls in louisiana close in about an hour and 25 minutes. that's 9:00 eastern. just three days from now, by the way, michiganers head to the poll as the presidential race moves to the midwest. let me bring in national correspondent joy reid from detroit who is with the detroit, also with detroit free press reporter kathleen gray. take over, joy. >> all right, chris. thank you very much. the democrats holding a party dinner, right, a party reception here tonight. hillary clinton expected to be

there. bernie sanders now making tracks to be there, as well. >> yeah, bernie sanders is over in warren which is about a half hour away from detroit. speaking to i'm sure another very large crowd of supporters. he has been gaining a lot of osupporters here. thousands and thousands. >> the part has had some controversy and moving the primary up to january to help presumably hillary clinton. the party pretty much stayed out of it this time. >> they have. both the republican and the democratic parties are having their statewide primary tomorrow. previously the caucuses in previous years and in 2008 they decided they want tad be more of a force. and the republican primary and republicans have done it, too. unfortunately, we lost half of our delegations. >> who has the advantage a big labor state. advantage for either of them? >> hillary clinton is leading in

the polls and bill clinton was campaigning for her today and he was with unions and bernie sanders has been talking very high up about unions. >> not in this race. now, are any of the releading union leaders on a camp one side or the uther? >> one is a sanders supporter and the sciu which is a big union has endorsed hillary clinton. >> let's talk about the republicans. lieutenant governor of the state endorse john kasich. no endorsements from the governor. it's not exactly wanted, right? >> he's been embroiled in this flint controversy and just a drip, drip, drip of bad news for him. how much his staffers knew. how much he didn't know. so, he's just been caught up in that and saying he's not going to endorse anybody. he's been too busy. i'm not sure if candidates really want his endorsement. that would be an optic that i can't imagine any candidate would want.

>> the flint water crisis has been a big issue on the democratic side. we've heard it come up over and over again in debates sometimes brought up by the candidates themselves. has it become an issue when republicans are campaigning here? >> not very much. when they're directly asked about it they'll say, oh, it's a tragedy. it should have never happened and a failure of government at all levels. local, state and federal. but they've also said that they think the governor schneider who has been handling it fairly well. and that he's taken responsibility for it. he is trying to get money to flint. the legislature has approved about $65 million so far and there is going to be more coming. >> a recall petition that will start on easter sunday. do you think that will be successful. >> michigan law is you have to get almost 800,000 signatures in 60 days and that is a very tall order. >> let's get it back to presidential politics. any advantage here for any republican in particular. we saw donald trump across the country and blue collar state and things have happened in detroit, nafta a big issue here.

who has the advantage on the republican side? >> we had a poll out that came, came out earlier this week that has trump in the lead. marco rubio and ted cruz neck and neck. but john kasich is working very hard in this state. he has, he has been all over. he is going to three different spots today. he's going to be at three different stops on monday. he really wants to win michigan, which will propel him to a victory in ohio. >> this is the kind of state he should be able to win. thank you very much. chris, back to you. >> joy, i want to stick with you about this question. let's take the democratic side. big city, detroit. a lot of african-americans there. hillary clinton should do well in detroit. how did she do in the burbs. >> yeah, i mean, for hillary clinton, this state, obviously, is some place that she does have some history. that the gaming of the system in 2008 and a lot of her delegates being really angry that they didn't wind up counting. hillary clinton does have legacy in the african-american community.

that is an advantage here like it's an advantage anywhere else, chris. when we talked to people today we heard that bernie sanders' message is resignating. people here still angry about nafta and outsourcing and that message of political revolution in terms of getting the working man back in charge. it actually resonates here. but what we were told today, chris, african-americans just don't think you can win in general and that people are siding with hillary clinton because they think she's the one who can actually win the white house in november. >> what is the fear of trump due to the way that people think? the fact that if trump is the republican nominee and you can't predict his electability from that because you don't know who he is going to be six months from now. he can be a totally different candidate six months from now. where cruz will be cruz. >> rubio will be rubio but trump changes and almost like a character in a movie. maybe like one of those frightening giant robots. transformers. they change shape. you don't know what he will look like. >> well, chris, it's interesting. we spoke with an

african-american republican today who basically runs kind of the state parties, black republican outreach program. what he says is that he has african-americans coming into the office saying they like the idea that trump can bring jobs. this notion he is a business guy could get jobs could have crossover appeal with some larly working class african-american voters. button the other side, what we also heard talking to a radio host here who is talking to people every day, african-american. was saying that people are worried about trump. they're worried about the things that he's saying, especially on race. all that we're hearing recently about the david duke sort of not pushing him away strongly enough and if that, too, is motivating african-americans to go for hillary clinton out of really a fear that anybody but hillary wouldn't be able to actually beat donald trump. a big presumption, chris, growing across the country that trump will be the nominee and the decision for democrats is who they think can beat him. >> it's in the papers and magazines and national and

international magazines. trump's got it and i think it does, i agree with you, i think it has strategic importance to people when they go to vote. a lot more at stake here than rs versus ds. thank you out there in detroit. much more ahead in tonight's live election coverage. stay with us here on msnbc. >> about $300,000 in debt. a dennest in iowa, $400,000 in debt.

welcome back to our super saturday coverage here on msnbc. ted cruz is now the projected winner in kansas in those caucuses. beating donald trump in kansas 2-1. look at the map, he's leading in every county in kansas. with me now eugene robinson of "washington post" and former communication director for ted cruz rick tyler. both are msnbc political analysts.

let me go to eugene now. it seems to me a lot of headline writers are waiting to say trump slowed on super saturday. they're dieing to say the big guy, the lion of this race is showing weakness. >> well, let's see what happens in louisiana. let's see what happens in kentucky. you know, i think donald trump can probably come out of tonight even if he gets blanked. he can't crow that he had another day of victory, but he more than lives to fight, again. i think he can argue that he doesn't do well in those caucus states. and that the primary states tonight are more santorum-type states that are better for cruz. he has arguments to make. i think the person who is really being damaged tonight from what we know looks like marco rubio because, again, where, who wants marco rubio to be the nominee? the answer to that seem to be not enough republicans. that has been the answer to this point and it seems to be the

answer, again, tonight. >> let me go to rick tyler. now, before, rick, you talked about cruz. let me ask you about rubio. michael steele said a while ago, not too many minutes ago. rubio's real problem that he may have the money guys behind him. but he doesn't have a big constituency behind him like cruz does. that's why he can't win votes. people are not for him. >> i think that's right. he has been, well, at first jeb bush was the establishment candidate and then he was sort of the runner up establishment candidate. but he's not been able to rally a lot of people behind and he won one state so far. so, the problem with rubio right now is the story that coming out of tonight is likely to be that there is one person that can beat and stop donald trump and the never trump movement is gaining ground. and that is ted cruz. but he's already won kansas and looks good in maine. we'll see if louisiana acts more like louisiana or texas. looks like he will come in a solid second in kentucky. >> gene, look at this other

question, though. if kasich, most of us thought did a great job in the debate this week. just like we thought trump didn't do a great job. rubio. suppose he moves up well. he comes in say a strong second or a strong in michigan and knocks rubio out and also makes sure the vote is divided, again. the anti-trump vote has three contestants in it all vying for number two. >> ted cruz who has won a whole lot more primary states than marco rubio has to at this point be considered the number one anti-trump. the number one trump alternative. so, everybody stays in the race tonight. and, of course, because kasich isn't really playing in these states and he staked everything on ohio next week. marco rubio is effectively staking everything on florida next week. so, another week where everybody is in and everyone is splitting up the anti-trump vote is another pretty good week for trump. >> how does cruz, back to you,

rick. you've been in this fight. you've been actually in this fight for a long time. how does rubio win in florida when he's not showing up for a vote for most of the year. he hasn't done the job they elected him ta. it just seems to me the easiest rhetoric in the world to go for trump and cruz to go in there and say you gave him one job and he didn't show up. you're going to give him another one, a bigger one. that's easy. >> the rubio campaign is the amnesty candidate and he became the pro-amnesty senator. he doesn't seem to be very well liked in florida. the challenge in florida for anybody else and certainly for cruz is the money. it's very, very expensive. if cruz can focus this money in the i-4 corridor, he might do all. it's a winner take all state. chris, remember what we talked about and steve kornacki just mentioned this. watch these close primaries and the caucus state. trump does not do well in the caucus states. he did not do well in oklahoma and doesn't look like he might win in maine. he didn't win in caucus.

he skipped gopac to go to kansas to solidify that and end up losing it 2-1. doesn't do well in close primaries because a lot of trump supporters are outside of the republican party system. so, he's just not doing well in those those states. we have a lot of them coming up. if he is seen as the only person who can stop trump, he will do well. >> it shows as you were saying it. it shows that trump has a much greater reach in a general electric than cruz does. >> in a sense he does. a lot of them have been outside the system. if they show up, that's good for him. if they don't, it is a wash. >> but they'll show up in november if they show up in march. >> i'm not sure. >> oh, come on. they're going to show up. why are you doing there to me? drop the cruz line. that's the cruz line. come on. gene? i want to you check me on this. if you vote in march with all

enthusiasm for donald trump, wouldn't you be likely once he gets the nomination? >> sure. of course. people who vote for trump, look, we know. >> they don't change. >> his supporters are really enthusiastic. they'll come out to vote for him. my one caveat is that there's some indication, i think i read some indication that maybe democrats in those open states are coming out to vote for trump. some are coming out to vote against trump in the republican primaries. so i'm not sure. i want to continue to discuss this theory of rick's. the trump vote. it sort of disappears. >> maybe he's not the nominee. >> fair enough. i didn't think along those lines. >> thank you. stay with us throughout the night. any way, this is msnbc live.

that was tamed. we're not denying you any trump coverage. super saturday right now will continue. back for more after this.

let's take a look at where this race is going from tonight over the next two weeks. this opportunity, we'll keep an eye on this. louisiana tonight. the result of louisiana could tell us something about tuesday. if ted cruz is competitive or even winning louisiana, i think

we have to circle people thinking rubio might be targeting. that might be called into question. on the 15th. ted cruz has won here and here and here in iowa. ted cruz won in the state of texas. i think you have to look at missouri and say he may well be the favorite in missouri on the 15th. also, donald trump leads here in florida. here's the key. early voting already underway so rubio could rally over the next two weeks but a lot of votes already locked in in florida. >> wow! so smart. we're still awaiting results in six contests.

tonight, the live coverage continues after this.

we continue to wait for results in maine, kentucky and kansas. in maine, the republican caucuses are too early to call but we can report that the maine republican winner will be announce in the about 30 minutes. that's the maine republican caucuses. in kentucky it is too early to call and in kansas norgs vote in yet. too early to call as well. earlier tonight it was ted cruz. the big winner in the kentucky republican caucuses. we have to look at when steve corn actiony talked about it. us