the music. and if it's tuesday feels relevant right now, because a lot of people are voting today. good evening, i'm chuck todd here in new york city. welcome to "mtp daily." get ready for another wild night. we are less than three hours from the first polls closing in tonight's crucial quartet of primary and caucus contests, and we are mere moments away from our first look at some early exit polls in tonight's biggest prizes, michigan and mississippi. trump is favored to win both states, but how big will his victories be if he does win them? and if there is truly some momentum going in the anti-trump

direction, then we should see it in both states tonight, right? he is under serious fire, and we could see our first real evidence tonight if this stop-trump movement is gaining traction. to me, saturday will be explained away if trump does well tonight, as simply being a night of conservative contests. but if tonight is close, then we'll go back to thursday, that raucous debate, mitt romney, all of those things. hot off the presses, though, besides exit polls, we've got a brand-new nbc news/"wall street journal" national poll of the republican contests. so i've got a lot of numbers that i'll be throwing at you in a few minutes. you're looking right now at kannapolis, north carolina, that's where ted cruz is holding a 5:00 p.m. rally ahead of tonight's results. north carolina, by the way, one of five of those big states a week from today on sort of second super tuesday. when all is said and done tonight, though, rubio has got to worry about finishing fourth in michigan and mississippi, thanks to john kasich. tomorrow, at 8:00 p.m. eastern, i'll be hosting a town hall with rubio at florida international

university in miami. we'll likely have plenty to talk about. by the way, he's hanging his hat on the island. the island known as hawaii, a set of islands in a state. if he can win out there tonight, he can say that two of his biggest victories were not in the continental united states. as for john kasich, he hasn't made an effort in every state, but he usually does well in states he targets. and kasich has put a lot of emphasis on both michigan and mississippi. he could use a strong second place finish in michigan tonight. it would give him some serious momentum going into ohio next week. and on the left, michigan could be bernie sanders' last stand. it's his best remaining chance to prove that he can be competitive with hillary clinton in a big, diverse state. can he beat her in a big and diverse state? if not now, when? and michigan's issues are tailor-made for bernie sanders. our team of nbc reporters are running on caffeine and adrenaline. they're fanned out across the country, covering every candidate, as they all await tonight's results. we'll get the latest from each one in just a minute.

hundreds of delegates are in play tonight, so let's dive in. we begin with a quick road map for tonight. at 8:00 p.m. eastern, polls close in the democratic and republican primaries in mississippi. an hour later, it's the big prize of the night, michigan, 147 delegates are at stake for the democrats, 59 delegates for the republicans. first time, by the way, in over 20 years that the michigan democratic and republican primaries are being held competitively on the same night. could limit the amount of crossover tonight on the republican side. at 11:00 p.m. eastern, polls close in the republican primary in idaho. 32 delegates up for grabs there. and the action doesn't stop until late into the night/early morning, 1:00 a.m. eastern, doors close on the republican caucuses in hawaii. in this race, as you know, every delegate counts. donald trump has nearly 400 delegates, but ted cruz is less than 100 off of him. rubio is desperate for something to go his way. and kasich is looking for some momentum. on the left, it's a grim delegate picture for sanders. you can look at the math here. clinton is crushing him by

roughly 600 delegates when you throw in the supers, but has about a 200 delegate lead even without them. that brings us to our latest number in our new nbc news/"wall street journal" national poll. on the democratic side, as we reported earlier today, sanders has his best number yet in a national poll against hillary clinton, but her lead remains and she's up nine points over 50%. and as you can see, little really has changed in this race in the last month. but on the republican side, we have brand-new numbers out right now, and it's a much-different story. we have deadlocked essentially in a statistical try, trump up three points. kasich has catapulted into third place in our numbers there, as you can see, ahead of rubio, but within the margin. trump has gained a couple of points since last month, likely due as primary wins. we should note our new nbc news survey monkey had trump, it's part of a pattern where drump does better in online polls.

the bigger mover is john kasich, up double digits. tonight may serve as a critical benchmark for the stop-trump movement. we've seen an onslaught from elders like mitt romney, millions of dollars hitting the air waves in attack ads like this one a bunch of which was put together by romney's former advisers. >> he gets the nomination, they're going to sue his [ bleep ]. he said she's a [ bleep ]. i don't give a [ bleep ]. we'll beat the [ bleep ] out of him. they're ripping the [ bleep ] out of the city. bull [ bleep ]. what the [ bleep ] are we doing? you're not going to raise that [ bleep ] price. i have the best words. and you can tell them to go and [ bleep ] themselves. >> the purpose of that was to try to hit him for the words he chooses, for the decorum, for that issue. the ad is running just in the panhandle, evangelicals being the target for now. trump is also under fire for something he's been doing at campaign rallies recently, where he asked the crowd to raise

their hands and pledge to vote for him. abe foxman, a holocaust survivor who ran the anti-defamation league said it looked like a, quote, heil hitler absolute. >> the idea that you would take this loyalty oath. you know what? i raise my hand and i take an oath to you, to the people. that's who's working for whom. and the idea that a candidate running for office wants the people to pledge loyalty to him like subjects to a king, well, we've had seven years of a president who thinks he's an emperor. >> folks, it's possible that some of this might be taking its toll on trump when it comes to his standing among republican voters. because in the head-to-head matchups, trump continues to struggle in our polling. in two-man races, just among republicans, between trump and cruz, trump trails by 17 points. in a two-person republican race

between trump and rubio, trump trails by 13 points. and in a two-person race with kasich, trump trails by 17 points. in those head-to-heads. we'll get to that in the next block with our pollsters. but let me hit the road. correspondents out in the trenches. katy tur, hallie jackson, gabe gutierrez, craig melvin, and kasie hunt. let's start off with katy tur. trump will be having his primary night press conference, as the results come in. it should be a big night, but if we don't know the results by 9:00 or 10:00, he's going to have to start getting very nervous. >> reporter: that is exactly right. we're looking at mississippi and michigan as two states he's got to win, but not only win, but do really well in. so far, we've seen droouz do better than expected in maine and in kansas. the late-breaking voters going to him instead of donald trump.

so his margin of winning has diminished quite a bit, as we've gone on through this primary season. and if that happens again tonight, certainly, questions among the trump campaign about what they need to do to change their tactics moving forward. right now, the establishment wing of the republican party is going after him really hard. you're seeing mitt romney record those robo calls, also, tweet a link to that attack ad that you just played a moment ago. the stop-trump effort gaining moment, because they're seeing cracks, essentially, in the facade of the trump campaign. will that continue tonight or will big wins in michigan and mississippi propel him to more big wins, potentially, on the next super tuesday next tuesday. chuck? >> we shall see. katy tur in jupiter. katy, thanks very much. let's go to hallie jackson, she's with the cruz campaign in north carolina. where they're holding a rally. north carolina among those, i think, that has gone under the radar for second super tuesday, that's a week from tonight.

but what is the cruz campaign defining as victory. >> as you know, chuck, the campaign is being cagey as far as putting all their eggs in one basket and declaring if they will win somewhere. but i think you can look to idaho and i think you can expect to see from the cruz campaign, a strong showing there. they'd like to have a good finish in mississippi and michigan. they're looking to get above that 15% threshold and pull in some delegates and make sure that in a state where donald trump looks strong, he doesn't totally run away with it. hawaii's kind of a question mark, but you nailed it with north carolina, chuck. ted cruz has held two events here today, and listen to where he's headed tomorrow. miami. he's focusing now on super tuesday ii next week, trying to make a play, not just here in north carolina, not just in missouri, by the way, where you may see him put in some time and some resources, but also in florida to try to keep a lid on marco rubio. cruz wants this to be a two-man race. the thinking goes, if they can keep a lid on rubio in florida, they can get trump one on one,

which is where they want to be. they're betting they can do well if that's the matchup. >> hallie, it's a risky strategy, because if you kill rubio now, you hand florida to trump, and the numbers get very, very tricky in that delegate count. i get what they're trying to do, but it's a risk. anyway, hallie jackson, thanks very much. >> reporter: a roll of the dice. >> let's move over to gabe gutierrez with the rubio campaign in on tponte verde, florida. it could be a tough night early for them, but they're hoping some time either very early tomorrow morning or late tonight they get good news out of hawaii. explain. >> reporter: that's right. it could be a very disappointing night at the start of it for marco rubio's campaign. they could finish a disappointing fourth. that's a possibility in michigan and in mississippi. but they also have spent some time in idaho, so they're looking for a potentially strong finish there. but hawaii could be a strong showing for rubio, as well.

another key for the rubio campaign finishing up above that 15% delegate threshold in michigan, to see if they can pick up some delegates there. but really, are the rubio campaign at this point, it's all about florida. they spent the past day here, really crisscrossing the state. they have this rally later on tonight. tomorrow, they'll be in miami, and we'll be talking to you later on in miami. throughout the day today, the rubio campaign really pushed back on this notion and this cnn report, citing anonymous sources, suggesting that several rubio advisers had urged them to get out of the race. the rubio campaign says that is not the case, he says he's in this, and he considers himself an underdog, but he can win in florida. the question will be, will these attack ads against donald trump gain any traction, and what happens with ted cruz? can he make a play in this state to squeeze rubio out? that remains to be seen. but they hope they can get some momentum after the debate in miami this week. >> let's go to craig melvin, in

columbus, ohio, where the kasich campaign will hold their election night rally tonight. and i'll tell you, john kasich's having a great night in our new nbc news/"wall street journal" poll. will he have an equally great night with voters in the state of michigan? do they think they can finish second tonight? >> reporter: chuck, i've spent the better part of the day talking to kasich surrogates, talking to voters, as well. the surrogates tell me that if he finishes second tonight in michigan, they will treat that as if he has won michigan, using that momentum to hopefully move into ohio next week, they vote here in ohio a week from today. winner take all, of course. so, yeah, i mean, if john kasich's going to have a moment, his people believe that the moment likely starts tonight. since thursday, the super pac supporting john kasich has spent roughly $1.2 million on television in ohio. there are only two candidates on tv right now in the buckeye state. it's kasich and it's donald trump.

he's spent roughly $1 million. kasich's campaign has chipped in another few hundred thousand. he's going to be in chicago, kasich's going to be in chicago tomorrow, but after that, we're told, he's going to be putting all of his eggs in the ohio basket. he's guaranteeing a win next tuesday here, chuck. >> well, he has no choice, because if he doesn't win, as he said, he's out of the race. so if i were him, i would be guaranteeing that, too. >> reporter: that's right. >> anyway, craig melvin in columbus, ohio, with a campaign that may feel like it's starting to get some momentum. let's shift to the democrats, kristen welker joins us from cleveland, ohio, where hillary clinton is set to have a rally tonight. we're having this pattern here where everybody wants to be in the next big state, as they await word about what happens tonight. they would like a sweep tonight. do they think a sweep puts sanders away? >> reporter: they think so, chuck. and you're absolutely right, if secretary clinton not only wins, but they're hoping to win by double digits, they think that would be convincing enough to start to really put this race out of reach, not necessarily mathematically, but at least

when it comes to the momentum. we have seen the rhetoric really heat up in recent days. senator sanders has been attacking secretary clinton for supporting past trade deals like nafta, incredibly unpopular in the state of michigan. she sort of fired back with this sneak attack on sunday night at that debate that caught senator sanders off guard a bit, when she criticized him for opposing the auto bailout. and as you know, chuck, that is incredibly popular in michigan and in states like ohio, where they credit it with reviving the economy and millions of jobs. so that has been an effective attack. we'll have to see if it gets her to that double-digit win, but the race incredibly important, it would solidify secretary clinton's status as the front-runner and could be senator sander's last stand opini. chuck? >> that's for sure. kristen welker, thank you very much. let's go to kasie hunt in our miami bureau, but is our sanders' correspondent. kasie, they pointed to michigan for weeks, they wanted to almost skip super tuesday to say, hey,

look at michigan, look at michigan. they don't win tonight, what's their message? >> reporter: hey, chuck. yeah, it's really tough for them if they don't have an abnormally or an unexpectedly strong showing in michigan tonight, in many ways. i will say, both the clinton campaign and the sanders' campaign, and i was talking to debby d ybie dingell, the congresswoman from the detroit area, who's a longtime watcher of michigan politics, they all say that the numbers are going to be closer than what many of these polls, including ours, have been showing, this double-digit gap between sanders and clinton. and the sanders' campaign is really counting on it. they know that if they don't do well in michigan, it's going to be really hard for them to argue going into march 15th that they're going to be able to win in places like ohio and illinois, and some of the other states that would actually give him a shot at being seen as a real contender, instead of just kind of a cause or the leader of a movement. the they're going to prove that he can actually take her on for this nomination. the math is already difficult

for them, but if they don't do well in michigan, followed by these other states next week, it's going to be all but impossible. >> that's for sure. and i think they know it. i thought it was interesting, maybe it was a slip of the tongue, but the whole, well, maybe sanders will be on the ticket, i thought was an odd, interesting freudian slip by tad devine, one of the sanders advisers. kasie hunt, thanks very much. we'll have our first look at the exit poll data out of michigan and mississippi after the break. we'll dig deeper into those numbers as well as our new nbc news/"wall street journal" national poll up ahead with our pollsters. and later, we'll hit the ground with an update on what we can expect to see in tonight's key republican contest, with longtime reporters on the beat in those states. stay tuned.

as promised, some breaking

news. we've got our very first look at the early exit polling out of mississippi and michigan. and here's what we can tell you, before polls close. the republican electorate in mississippi looks a lot like alabama did on super tuesday, according to the nbc news exit poll, mississippi has similar education and income profile to alabama. there are slightly more white evangelicals in mississippi, 76%, than alabama's 68%. mississippi republicans are more likely to be very conservative than their neighbors to the east, 50% compared to 38%. this is also a slightly more conservative electorate than it was until 2012. that was a big three-way race, very close between santorum, romney, and gingrich at the time, being a little bit more of a conservative electorate, this might be good news for ted cruz. we'll have much more in a moment. and keep it here on msnbc, your up-to-date and up-to-the-minute results. we'll be back with more exit poll info in a minute.

. so what kind of a night are we in for, if the previous contests are any indication, expect a big turnout for republicans compared to 2012. look at this. turnout in the gop primaries is up 40%, compared to 2012. we're talking numbers we haven't seen since the obama movement in 2008. and on the republican side, they haven't seen that, really, in the modern era, since everything really did shift more to primaries. conversely, democratic primary turnout is down by roughly 40% compared to 2008. joined now by the bipartisan polling team, democratic pollster fred yang, and republican pollster, michael robert s wis wit s wit roberts, vice president at public opinion strategies. michael, let me start with you. and i want to just quickly, on the nbc news/"wall street journal" poll and on our results and get the horse race back up. the surprise in the poll really is third place. and that john kasich -- and this poll was conducted, correct me if i'm wrong, entirely after

that last debate, entirely after mitt romney made his speech. and if there is any beneficiary, it appears to be john kasich. >> well, that does seem to be the case. and, you know, this poll is definitely showing you a set of data that is reflecting what's happening out there in the electorate, where you have a very tight and contentious race between donald trump and ted cruz, at the top, and that as we winnow this field, we are seeing what's true is that donald trump is kind of hitting that ceiling in our polling, and if you look at the votes cast to this point, it's very close. so you have about, only about 35% of the votes cast so far for donald trump. so the poll is really reflecting and showing what's happening in the electorate. >> you know, you guys did a very good job in some briefings for us of showing that we ought to be very careful of any of the national polling that shows him over 35%, because frankly, that

hasn't been the actual vote totals. the actual vote totals have shown him more in the mid-30s. fred, when you look at this, too, this late in the poll -- this late in a primary process, to see a surge this late, like we're seeing for john kasich, because the surge appears to be among all voters. we're obviously not releasing all parts of the poll now, but, you know, john kasich had a -- he is in good shape in any way we tested him. obviously, what we've released early shows him doing well in the ballot matchup. but i'm trying to think, this is awfully late to finally get your moment. >> well, i mean, chuck, it is very clear from our polling and previous polls that donald trump does have a ceiling. look, i think part of governor kasich's rise is he's the new -- he's next up. he's the next new face up. and you're right, chuck, compared to the last poll, kasich's acceptability is up with very conservative voters, he's up with tea party voters, he's up a smidge with moderates.

the problem for kasich and for rubio and for cruz is when you come to the vote, kasich's path is blocked because among very conservatives, kasich went up by 15 points in acceptability, but ted cruz is almost getting 50% of the very conservative vote. so, look, i think, chuck, that's why we're here right now with kind of a muddled field, with trump still the slight favorite. this field is -- the voters are trying to figure out who's the next person, but as you have said many times, it may be a while before we get to that next person. and by then, it might be too little. >> it could be. mike and fred, i'm going to start putting out what we can of our exit poll. mike, i know you love these numbers. it's the ideological makeup of what we're seeing so far in mississippi republican electorate and the michigan republican electorate. let me put up mississippi first. and we've got both 2012 and 2016, so people can see the comparisons. very conservative electorate, in this case, white evangelicals is what we're putting up now. 76% of it in this one compared

to 2012. here's the ideological numbers up for folks. the very conservative number is up from four years ago, up to 50%. somewhat conservative also up from four years ago to 34%. the moderate or liberal number very down. and i'll pause throwing out numbers there. that could very well be the open nature of the mississippi primary, where democrats had a democratic primary to go vote in. and therefore making the republican electorate slightly more conservative, that should be good news for a ted cruz, for instance, no? >> well, it's what we've seen across the early voting states so far, is that there is a more conservative electorate that's coming out to vote. and fundamentally, all the age and education, income, those things seem to be pretty steady. so it's a pretty exciting and different set of numbers that i don't think has been reported all that much in terms of the changing electorate. and of course, you add on top of that how many more people are coming out to vote, and it certainly shows you that this

set of candidates is working to change the electorate and move people to the polls. >> fred, i want to put up the michigan ideology numbers. and this is just for the republican electorate, for now. but i think you'll see that it might be having an impact on the democratic vote. as i pointed out, it hasn't been since 1992 that michigan republicans have held a primary on the same day that michigan democrats have held their primary. and for years, a lot of crossover votes have impacted the michigan republican primary. john mccain benefited in 2000, for instance. well, look at it here. as you can see, the very conservative number is actually about even, if not down. but the somewhat conservative number, way up from 2012, up a good 14 points. but the moderate to liberal number, way down. just looking at this offhand, and it look like, fred, and you look at some of the other numbers i've seen in the exits, we're not seeing a huge number -- we're seeing the same level of crossover among independents that we have seen

in the past, but not as many democrats participating in the republican primary. that may be good news for hillary clinton. >> i think that's good news for hillary clinton. and you know, again, you know, mike has said, one of the underreported stories of 2016 is the republican primary electorate is getting more conservative. the democratic primary electorate is getting more liberal. and in some respects, the latter point, you would think, could benefit sanders a little bit, but our data has shown, and you know, micah was very good on our call this morning, is hillary clinton does better with democrats. and sanders advantages these crossovers, which could be muted in michigan and these other places. >> well, there's one thing, though, a majority of democrats in michigan and a majority of republicans in michigan both agree on. and that is this, trade with other countries takes away american jobs. 53% of republican primary voters believe this, 56% of democratic primary voters believe this. talk about an interesting divide inside the republican primary.

that was my little teaser. fred and mike, got to let you go. great stuff. unbelievable stuff. more of the nbc/"wall street journal" poll in your inbox tomorrow. exit polling though, we'll have more throughout the hour. i gave you that teaser on trade. we know where michigan stands on trade. they're unified on that issue. still ahead, can donald trump dominate in tonight's early contests? or does all the stop-trump talk actually help ted cruz or john kasich close the gap? we'll check in with reporters on the ground in mississippi, michigan, and idaho. that's all coming up. stay tuned.

still ahead, how mississippi, michigan, and idaho could make or break the republican candidates tonight. plus, chris matthews joins me live from detroit to discuss what's at stake for bernie sanders in michigan tonight. that state hasn't had a competitive democratic primary there in a generation. and then tomorrow night, i'll be hosting a town hall, we continue with our republican town hall series.

and this one will feature presidential candidate marco rubio, from his hometown of miami. happens to be mine, too. don't tell anybody. with just six days until the must-win florida primary for marco rubio, you'll be able to catch it right here on msnbc, 8:00 p.m. eastern. more "mtp daily" right after this, but first here's josh lipton with the cnbc market wrap. >> thanks, chuck. stocks sink across the board. the dow falls 109 points. the s&p sheds 22. the nasdaq slips 59. shake shack was a decliner today. the company's revenue and earnings beat estimates, but same-store sales guidance disappointed. meanwhile, oil giant chevron plans to cut spending by about 40% in 2017 and 2018 to help preserve its dividend. last year, remember, the company announced thousands of job cuts as it struggled with falling crude prices. that's it from cnbc, first in business worldwide.

welcome back. donald trump's dominance in southern states could face a threat in today's mississippi primary. remember, this was supposed to be how ted cruz was going to get the nomination. he was going to march through the south. but it's been trump, so far. but on saturday, ted cruz did carry a block of counties in louisiana, where voters without a college degree have a strong preference. typically, those voters have been trump's bread and butter. and last night trump got the endorsement from mississippi's governor, phil bryant. >> when it comes down to a true conservative, as i am, ted cruz, senator cruz, has exemplified that. he went to washington, did what he said he was going to do. how rare is that? >> i'm joined now by someone who's been following it all, jeff pender is the political

editor at the clarion ledger in jackson, mississippi. jeff, thanks for coming on. so let's break this down. is this a two-person race? is this trump and cruz, or did kasich with the trent lott support get any traction? did rubio get any traction? >> well, kasich -- governor kasich has had a team here in mississippi early on, probably one of the first to create a team. he's hoping to get some traction. i think for him, though, he's shooting for 15%, so he can get a share of some statewide delegates. i think anything beyond that would surprise them as much as anyone. >> so in your mind, it's a two-person race, really. it's trump and cruz? >> it's a two-person race and most folks think it's probably a matter of how much trump is going to win by. >> i put up a map -- >> -- polling here -- >> i want to put up a map of the 2012 republican primary.

that was a very competitive three-way race between gingrich, santorum, and romney. what's interesting here is in the big media markets, as you can see there, santorum only carried -- of the five biggest counties, he only carried one of the five, because he did so well in rural territory. i guess, and you tell me if i'm wrong, i would suspect cruz and santorum will share a lot more counties tonight from 2012 and romney and trump may share a lot more counties tonight. is that your sense, that trump will probably do well around biloxi and jackson? >> sure, sure. cruz and santorum, i believe would probably share some of, as you mentioned, that rural vote. probably a little bit more evangelical, religious-leaning vote. i think cruz will do well in those areas. >> trump runs up the score, though in the two big media markets of biloxi and jackson? >> sure, sure. and in the north desoto counties, the memphis suburbs,

as well. >> all right, jeff pender, i'll leave it there and we'll move on to michigan. thank you, sir. enjoy your primary night. all right. we just learned from our new nbc news exit polls that michigan voters, as i've teased you before, in both parties are concerned about trade deals. more than half of voters in both the republican primary, 53%, and the democratic primary, 56%, say that foreign trade, these trade deals, take away u.s. jobs. only a third of voters in each party say trade creates more jobs. chad livengood is the capital reporter for "the detroit news." so, chad, that's not a surprise, the one unifyi ining factors th. i guess what's interesting today, this being the first time we've had both parties hold competitive primaries in over 20 years. what does that do to the crossover vote? what is your sense? >> well, donald trump is hoping to play into an angry electorate. he's also trying to, in the

republican base, but he's also trying to get some democrats and independents. he's been making this case that he's attracting these folks over to the republican party. and in mccomb county, that cannot be anymore focused. this is the home of the reagan democrats. they sometimes do vote democrat still in a lot of local elections, local politics. but he's trying to turn them out. and he's playing in his message on trade and his message against ford motor company, he's really trying to play to some of the same people that bernie sanders is playing for. >> i was just going to say, if you believe the polling, trump was doing better with these voters than sanders, trump is hurting sanders. without sanders, trump may be in a better position to win this. >> he may be. sanders could get more people to come and vote in that primary and try to counter hillary clinton's clear advantage in the african-american voter bloc in detroit and in flint pip mean, that's why they've been playing

so hard in flint. you know, talking about the water crisis there, basically been ground zero in this campaign, and obviously, we had a debate there the other night. >> very quickly, john kasich has made michigan one of his target states. he spent his announcement tour in michigan. i interviewed him the very first time, when we were in michigan. how well do you expect him to do tonight? >> well, he was in the state almost a dozen times before last wednesday, and he's only left the state for a brief period to go to cpac and come back the ohio on sunday, to campaign, but he has basically camped out in michigan here, and he joked today that he would have to start paying taxes if he spent anymore time here, basically. but he has put a lot of emphasis, he's really playing for second place. obviously, if he were to upset trump, it would be a pretty big deal in this campaign. >> that's for sure. but, hey, michigan republican primaries have created upsets before. no one saw john mccain beating george w. bush back in 2000. chad livengood, thank you very

much. we've been talking a lot about michigan and mississippi tonight, but idaho is one of the other states holding a nomination contest tonight. they're holding a primary. and it's one of those states that's been getting romney robo calls. we talked about a little bit of that earlier today throughout msnbc. republicans are facing off in the idaho primary tonight. and over the weekend, cruz and rubio each held rallies within 24 hours of each other in boise. it's a closed primary and wherever we've had closed primaries or caucuses, trump tends to do a little less well. he needs those independents and democrats to be able to cross over to pad his lead. melis melissa davelin is coest ho o idaho reports. there's a large mormon contingent in the primary, it's why mitt romney did so well in '08 and '12. that vote transferable to a marco rubio? i know he was hoping that would be the case in nevada. it didn't work out for him. will it work out for him in idaho?

>> i think there are two factors to understand here. first of all, there is a huge mormon population in idaho, but that's in the southern part of the state, which i think was going to lean a little bit more rubio in the first place, anyway. in north idaho, where they have very different issues, very different culture, less of an lds population, like you said, i think they were going to lean more cruz or trump in the first place, so although the romney robo calls went out on behalf of the marco rubio campaign, they never explicitly said "vote for rubio," they just attacked trump. and i don't know at this point in the game, since they just came out monday, if it's really going to be enough to sway voters one way or another. >> who had an organization out there? who is it that you felt, hey, they're taking idaho seriously? >> you know, i think cruz and rubio both had the biggest campaign presence i saw. not only did they get their candidates out here, but there were a lot of prominent lobbyists and lawmakers who were for ted cruz, a lot of republican movers and shakers who were for rubio.

kasich had a high-profile endorsement from governor butch otter that came in the last couple of weeks. but i don't know if that's enough, you know, a recent poll, although it only polled 600 ida ida idahoans showed that he wasn't doing that well. so i think it's going to be a three-way race between rubio, cruz and trump. >> melissa davelin, i appreciate it. idaho reports cohost. thank you thanks for that breakdown. very helpful. still ahead, i'll be joined by my colleague, chris matthews. he'll join me from detroit. we're going to preview tonight's primaries in michigan. democrats in that state will be casting their most important primary vote in more than two decades. we'll explain why it's been so long since michigan has held a democratic primary. stay tuned.

for the first time in a generation, michigan democrats are casting ballots in a primary that really matters. you have to go all the way back to 1992 to find the last relevant primary contest in the state. it was bill clinton's decisive win. jerry brown remained in the running enemy clinton wrapped up the nomination. by the time michigan's caucus rolled around in 2000, al gore got the victory. in 2004's democratic caucus, john kerry beat his closest

competitor howard dean by more than 30 points. dean dropped out of the race less than two weeks later. in '08, michigan democrats decided to ditch their caucuses. it was supposed to be state's big return to the primary stage and national relevancy, but michigan broke democratic party rules by scheduling its primary too early. so obama and edwards withdrew their names from the ballot. hillary clinton scored a nominal win, but the delegate distribution ended up in the hands of the democratic party's rules committee. so nobody got those delegates until it was over. that makes today the first time in a generation that michigan democrats will cast ballots that actually play a role inn ini in picking their party's nominee. how about that? up next, we'll check in with chris matthews who'll join me from, where else, michigan. we'll be right back.

so here's the thing. think about how ironic it is that this buick eye comes to michigan and i asked everybody, you put it aside through this primary and by the way, you know what i'm excited about, i'm going to spend a lot more time, because come november, we're going to win michigan as well in the general election, and defeat hillary clinton. >> that was ohio governor john kasich campaigning this afternoon in lansing, michigan. kasich was the only republican who spent the day in a state that is actually casting ballots today. joining me now from michigan, chris matthews of course host of "hardball," for our evening coverage tonight. chris, what's interesting about

tonight, and i think that it could have an impact on what we see on both sides, first time in 24 years, both parties holding a primary at the same time in a state that has a constituency that could vacillate, who trump is appealing to and who sanders is appealing to. >> yeah, it's a big state and real estate. by that, it's a lot like pennsylvania, suffered from trade and the working people in the cities, especially here, see it hollowed out by trade. they blame it on that more than technology, which would be legitimate any way. they think the trade law is bad. it should be an opportunity for bernie sanders to beat him drum here. but also trump to beat him drum. i remember something, i remember in 1972, the democrats in this state voted for george wallace. >> that's right. >> that was a stunner.

a conservative white vote here, working class vote. and i think that ought be looked at tonight. >> this is just, this state has done some odd things, right. jesse jackson won the primary i believe in '88, if i'm not mistaken. over michael dukakis. john mccain pulled an up set in 20000. this a volatile electorate in the state of michigan, has been for some time. it is because economic anxiety hasn't gone away in two generations. >> yeah, i think it's a really good sample for the country. maybe i'm prejudice, but to me, it feels like all the big upper midwest, nfl states. you think of the white guy, the black guy, whatever, in a big job, rooting like hell for green bay, you think of them as regular people. they can go either way

politically. they are affected by democratgrc change. i'll go for bernie, because i love he's so revolutionary or i'll go for trump, national republican theory, you probably read it in the journal the other day, the upper midwest will be a chance for trump to win a general election, he could carry it because of western pennsylvania, elite seeming, trump is obviously elite maybe more than george w, i can't see mitt romney winning those big nfl states. >> big 10 country, it was huge, the obama campaign actually spent a lot of time advertising on the big 10 network, just on saturdays during college football, and you know what they hit romney on, trade in china. they just kept hitting him on

it. guess what ads you can't run against donald trump, trade and china. >> a very mixed bag, very bad stuff in him and some interesting things in him. it's hard to do that in politics to say someone a mixed bag but he is. a lot of people would say i'm looking for a mixed bag, i'm willing to takes risks. that's why he looks good in a lot of the polls. we're getting near the big choosing, next week will be so big. i think michigan a pretty good leading indicate tore of ohio next week, illinois next week, and even florida way away from them, ends up being a very good sample of the country, with new york people, with southern people, red neck, rivera, the whole thing, but all kinds of middle class people from all across the country, including the midwest. so florida ends up being like a

midwest state. >> republican primary it can be. >> a lot of snowbirds, yeah. >> chris matthews, all right, go rest your voice for five minutes, all right, because we're going to see you again in about five minutes. >> for about eight hours. >> exactly. you're going to be up until we close the caucuses in hawaii. we'll be back with more, though, right after this.

as michigan voters head to polls today, we flashback to 2012 when mitt romney saved his ca candidate, prolonged process and helped fuel rick santorum, but a disaster, michigan, a home state of sorts for mitt romney. a defeat would have been a blow, considering he was born and bred in michigan. romney wax poetic on the trail ahead of that primary. >> i was born and raised here. i love this state. it seems right here, trees are the right height. i like seeing the lakes. i love the lakes. just something very special here. the great lakes, but also the inland lakes that dot the parts of michigan. i love cars. >> speaking of cars, state's

first primary exactly 100 years ago. henry ford won the primary and wasn't even on the ballot. who does that sound like? donald trump, who is now hitting ford motor company on outsourcing. everything is full circle. we'll see you in a minute. good evening and welcome, and here we go again. this has been dubbed super tuesday 2 by some, how super it is may depend largely on your party preference and candidate preference. tonight, the state in which you live, just to set the scene, our first two orders of business tonight, 8:00 eastern time poll closing in mississippi, 9:00 in michigan, though most of michigan will close, the polls will close, we have four out lying counties that don't close until the central time zone, so