first primary exactly 100 years ago. henry ford won the primary and wasn't even on the ballot. who does that sound like? donald trump, who is now hitting ford motor company on outsourcing. everything is full circle. we'll see you in a minute. good evening and welcome, and here we go again. this has been dubbed super tuesday 2 by some, how super it is may depend largely on your party preference and candidate preference. tonight, the state in which you live, just to set the scene, our first two orders of business tonight, 8:00 eastern time poll closing in mississippi, 9:00 in michigan, though most of michigan will close, the polls will close, we have four out lying counties that don't close until the central time zone, so

we're going to hold the call of the state as a whole. and we will be here for all of it. >> because then it rolls into idaho and hawaii. >> so far away. >> we had a very difficult negotiation with our employer here about the need to cite so we could be there at the end. >> we volunteered. >> sensitive subject around here. alas, we're here in new york city. obviously the polls say that donald trump is ahead and hillary clinton is ahead. but there are different dynamics that work in the parties right now. the southern states have been absolutely solid for hillary clinton. you look at all of the states that touch mississippi, she has won them by margins of 35 and 60 points. so if that softens at all, it would be a surprise for hillary clinton. it would be a big deal for

bernie sanders. he is not even really trying to make in roads there. to the contrary in the republican side, donald trump has also had a pretty solid lock on the south. ted cruz won his home state of texas and the neighbors state of oklahoma, but that was it. but you look at those states that touch mississippi, and how donald trump has done in them and he had been margins in a lot of them, except the most recent one. when he won that louisiana primary on saturday, his margin was like three or four points, with people who made up their decision and voted on election day, so donald trump actually feels vulnerable in the south in the way that he hasn't yet throughout this campaign and a way that hillary clinton doesn't look vulnerable of the the very first results we get tonight are going to tell an interesting tale. >> will it be clarity or further confusion as we go on through this election. first order of business is to bring chris matthews into this conversation. he is in detroit, michigan.

chris, it's been interesting, as someone i would hope to be regarded as a friend of detroit, to see some of the coverage that detroit is back, and while i think they would hesitate to agree with that blanket judgment, things are better in the city of detroit as they are across the state of michigan, though they're not there yet. >> yeah, thanks to some industrial policy from the current president. sticking its neck out and saving this auto industry in a controversial issue. a lot of people disagreed with it. bernie sanders voted against it. so i think this city is a good place to test the sanders campaign and another way to test what the trump campaign may accomplish this year. i think on the democratic side, hillary clinton is getting close to winning this thing if she wins here big because the quarter of the vote is after can american. if she wins big here, she'll win in illinois, ohio and florida perhaps. but if trump on the other hand, he has to test something even bigger here. his general election potential. if he wins big here, that

suggests he may win in the upper midwest, when wisconsin, pennsylvania, in the general election, he may be able to prove he can bring back the reagan democrats to the republican party. if he can do that bring back the white men, not just them, but if he can bring them back to the republican party in huge numbers, he can offset the demographic changes. that's his plan for winning the general election and that will be tested tonight. >> we're probably in for a long night. we're awfully happy to have you along for our long voyage. >> it has been contested, john kasich has spent the most time, done the most events in michigan, but that said, ted cruz made a last-minute hastily campaign. cruz sees something that interests him in terms of internal polling in michigan

that's making him fight it out. we're getting our first data in terms of who is turning out. steph has that. >> a whole bunch of numbers we're going to go through. republican side, we can give you a sense first of all of what the republican electorate looks like tonight. we can compare to what we saw four years ago. four years ago, a close primary there between mitt romney, rick santor santorum, romney won by a couple of months. what we see tonight is three quarters of the electorate in michigan as very or somewhat conservative. you can see, that's a pretty significant jump from four years ago. that number was only 61% combined. more conservative electorate in michigan, also in michigan tonight, more evangelicals christians, half, that number was under 40% four years ago. move down to mississippi, a similar trend tonight. 84% of republican voters in mississippi describing themselves as conservative, four

years ago, this was a primary that rick santorum won four years ago, that number was 71%. so a 13 point jump in the number of republicans in mississippi calling themselves conservative over the last four years. also, the white evangelical a little down, four points off where it was in mississippi four years ago. we can show you the democratic side what we're seeing tonight, combined 57% in michigan, calling themselves very or somewhat liberal. tough to compare this one. the last time they had a primary in michigan was 2008, remember a whole controversy about their place in the order, barack obama did not go on the ballot, so she ran against uncommitted. we can also show you the race, in terms of figuring out how the states are going, 22% in michigan tonight, african-american, that's why this is such a big test for bernie sanders, because you can't win states where there are substantial black populations, nearly a quartser of the

electorate is black. he has a chance to win it, so it will be something he'll be looking to do. you see in mississippi, 52% of democrats in mississippi calling themselves liberal today. that number when they had a primary in 2008 last time it, was only 35%. a trend as well, democrats much more liberal now than they were eight years ago in all of these contests we've seen so far. >> steve, thank you very much for that. let's bring in chuck todd and jean rock bin s gene robinson. my sense from the sanders campaign right now is they think the black percentage of the vote is not going to mean the same thing in non-southern states as it means in southern states. they think hillary clinton has locked up the black vote in the south, but outside the south might not be as much of a lock for her. first of all, how credible is that, and what does it mean if

it means we have 32% black turn out. >> the norts ah and south is ur rural. that's the big difference. whites, differences between urban and rural blacks. i understand what they're saying there. but this to me is the biggest test yet of the sanders campaign. they can't win tonight in the state like this, where are they going to win. the issues lineup perfectly for him. this is a states that been battered when it comes to job creation. this is a state if his message can't resonate here and carry a majority of democrats, where is it going to happen. if he can't win here, he can't win in ohio. >> he has tried really hard. >> he has made an effort. >> he spent more than anybody democratic or republican on ads in michigan. >> it would be a great demonstration for him, right. because people are -- the people who really feel the bern are not losing the faith, but others who might take a look at bernie sanders, i think over the past

few weeks have said this dog can't hunt. it doesn't look like it's going to happen t would be a huge psychological boost for him if he could win a state like michigan. a lot of delegates, but more important, a demonstration that i'm still here, i'm competing. >> and look for me next week in ohio and illinois. >> bernie has a delegate problem. she's going to win mississippi by such a large margin, that no matter what she is going to win the night on delegates. there is no -- >> even if she crashes and burns in michigan. >> because of the proportionality, she is going to take a chunk. it would be a great win for him, but that percentage, it is going to probably be something looking more like south carolina and mississippi and that split means for the night, she is going to pad her delegate lead. so that is a way to even take air out of the balloon, but it makes it that much more

devastates. >> sanders' performance, his stumble happened to be on the question of race. how much do you think, and i guess some of this will be borne out when we learn, when did you decide, but how much of that will really hurt him on the kbroun ground? >> it certainly didn't help him. i don't think it did grave damage. people who were thinking about voting for bernie sanders, i don't think they were necessarily dissuaded business his clumsiness. but you know, there might be folks who were otherwise potentially persuadable who are not coming over. i don't think it was a huge deal for him. >> and chuck, just to put a finer point on what you're saying, is it an thing about the sanders campaign going into michigan campaign tonight? >> well, i don't know if it's that. >> when you raise as much money at the drop of the hat -- >> this isn't going to stop his campaign.

but it does, it does allow the clinton campaign to move to another place, okay. if he doesn't win michigan tonight, she doesn't have to worry about ohio in the way where she is worrying about sanders. instead, she could start campaigning in ohio as if she's starting to campaign in a general election. let's not, this trade, this michigan number tonight that we have a majority of both democrats and republicans think trade deals have given michigan jobs the shaft, okay. majority on both sides. she's going to have to learn to deal with. because if trump is the nominee, this is the one issue area he is just going to -- >> same way sanders hits her. >> harder than sanders ever did. places like wisconsin and minnesota and western new york and even, i mean, this is going to be a challenge for her. it's something she needs to get used to. >> and people say we get ahead of ourselves sometimes. chuck todd, gene, we'll be

coming back to you. andrea mitchell watching it in washington tonight. andrea, what will we be looking for. >> the issue of trade is such a huge issue and that's the one thing he came out of the debate on the upside with michigan voters. if she hammered him on the auto bailout, he hammered her on trade and has been for weeks and weeks. it's going to be interesting to see if so many voters as we learn from the early exits are concerned about outsourcing and trade. maybe he did penetrate a bit the hillary clinton support in michigan, and she had all the elected, establishment and all the unions, and of course, early impact on the flint water issue, which she started talking about in january 17th in our debate in south carolina, as parts of her outreach outrea outreach african-american voters. she was speaking to flint, michigan and went there before

any other candidate did. it's going to be interesting to see how the flint, michigan issue affects her support in michigan, and of course, with african-american voter whose have been so grievously affected by that crisis, the water crisis. i think it's a crisis, or a real test for sanders in michigan. it's also a real test on the republican side for kasich, and to see whether if trends hold and if, you know, if we see donald trump doing well tonight in michigan, does kasich come in second. this is his base. this is a tell really as to how he is going to do in his native ohio. this an important test for him as well. >> campaigns talk, somebody from the kasich campaign said again, number two in michigan, second place, is like a win for the kasich campaign, especially heading into ohio.

andrei, yeah than andrea, thanks. we'll be checking in with you again. we're about an 1:45 with our first poll closings of the evening. please, stay with us.

we need to be ready for whatever weather may come our way. my name's scott strenfel and i'm a meteorologist at pg&e. we make sure that our crews as well as our customers are prepared to how weather may impact their energy. so every single day we're monitoring the weather, and when storm events arise our forecast get crews out ahead of the storm to minimize any outages. during storm season we want our customers to be ready and stay safe. learn how you can be prepared at pge.com/beprepared. together, we're building a better california.

we are back. mississippi will be our first poll closing tonight, 8:00 eastern. michigan will be the second state, andrea mitchell right before the break talked about the importance of the flint, michigan water crisis. it has obviously become a national issue. it is an issue that for some time has been near and dear in these parts as a network with my friend, rachel leading the way. antonio has been part of that reporting team as well. he is in a polling place, you're at the community college in

flint zrchl flint. >> reporter: i'm at the community college. built at a former apple orchard, steady line all day. largest location in flint. thousands of voters are expected to come through here by the time the polls close at 8:00 p.m. have interesting phenomenon going on here. like new hampshire, registered voters, doesn't matter if you're republican or democratic, you can take a ballot from either party. some crossover voting. some democrats have told me they're picking up republican ballots because they want to stop trump. some democrats who are voting for trump, because they're telling me if he wins the nomination, he is going to lose to hillary. so it's a vote for trump ultimately for hillary. some reagan democrats who are crossing back over, in this case, for bernie sanders. every vote counts. in this case a lot of thought exactly where the weight wants to be thrown, brian. >> that's fantastic, tony.

if we ever get numbers on how this is going to broke out, it's going to be fantastic. >> i love the fact that -- >> i was going to say, we're actually looking for hard data to support the trend. flint is a heavily democratic area. nine out of ten are democratic. we've reached out to the city. we're looking for hard numbers to see if they've seen an uptick, it would be good evidence to see if this crossover is anecdotal. >> thank you, tony. the idea of people doing cross party shenanigans, it always gets so much coverage, but ultimately, people who are committed enough to the political process to try to do something that complicated tend to have esoteric ideas what to do once they're making the intervention. if we get democratic crossover voters before and for and against trump, it will be hard

to sort out. i also love the idea that the place where reagan democrats ultimately land in 2016 is with bernie sanders. that makes complete sense. >> it has the entire time. as much sense as anything else this year. >> one of the congressmen who has had more on his plate than any other individual in congress, dan kildey who represents flint michigan. at the same time, he has been handling this nationwide scandal and this very difficult health crisis in his state. inn infrastructure, freed in the prisoner swap in the iran nuclear deal. the former marine, he was a flint resident. he was intimately involved in getting him out. congressman kildey is a good member of congress, but boy he

has had a year. our own chris matthews is with him right now in michigan. chris. >> thank you, rachel. a couple of issues that made the name flint, michigan, starting with the michael moore movie and the water situation. we were talking, you said there is a connection between the hallowing out of flint michigan by general motors leaving, pretty much disappearing and what happened to the water system. explain. >> the biggest factor undermining was the loss of manufacturing jobs, once had 76,000 jobs at gm, now less than 10,000. when the tax base left, this city was in big financial trouble and didn't have the capacity to manage itself. the state cut additional funding to the city. it went almost into bankruptcy, so the governor appointed an emergency manager who came in and made debt significance to switch the water sources for the cheaper flint water. so the collapse of the economy

in flint was largely because of the loss of manufacturing jobs. but the result was state emergency manager coming in and making these almost inexcusable decisions without treating the water, led to leaching into the water. >> what could we do now to help out these cities that have been towed out. maybe a diner maybe. >> for sure. this is the work i've been working on for a long time. having direct investments, having an orientation that understands that cities are unique places, innovation takes place, creativity is mote evident. it's how we invent. flint is a great example. general motors was founded in flint in 1908. so federal policy and state policy both should support these cities, and not lead them all by themselves to have to deal with

the ebb and flow of economic trends. flint was completely incapable of dealing with the loss of 60,000 gm jobs. >> we know bernie sanders' policies, they're pretty dramatic. we know donald trump. hillary clinton, center left politician we all know, what would she do for dplint that you're backing her. >> she would make sure we had theflint that you're backing her. >> she would make sure we had the help to get through the crisis but the conversations i've had with her, she shares the same values that i share. we need to breakdown the barriers that people in flint face, one of the ways to do that is invest in manufacturing. for example, she announced her economic plan. one of the things she would require is that when a company takes tax breaks to grow jobs in a particular community like flint, which we did, if they leave, they've got to pay the money back to the community that gave it to them. it would do two things. make sure we had some compensation for the loss of those jobs, but i think even more so, it might prevent some of those manufacturing jobs from

going somewhere else. if they want to take the break in the first place, they can't just take the money and pack up and leave when they're ready to go. hillary clinton's approach to economic development tore manufacturi manufacturing. >> trade, of a minute here, trade is something you always blame. but a lot of factors to situations like flint. slam the door a lot of people say. if we had slammed the door on auto competition, korean competition, our cars wouldn't be as good. we know that. competition does raise the standards. >> it raises the standards, but d has to be fair. we know we live in a global economy. >> why are american cars so good when they weren't 10, 20 years ago. >> i think part of the reason is the people running the company before were more wall street sort of bean counters and you have product people running the companies now. but competition did make a difference, and we had to sharpen our pencils. but we want to make sure now

that when we enter into the trade deals that we deal with the biggest on obstacles we have, which is currency. >> trump talks about it all the time. not your guy. >> not my guy. >> we all know there is a problem. thank you. brian and rachel, back to you. >> thanks to you and the congressman on behalf of two american car owners. we should also say in flint, the excavation has started with the copper pipes, but would it erase lead damage already in the people and especially the children of flint, michigan. a tragedy we'll keep covering. we'll take another break in here. when we come back, among others, we'll talk to the rubio campaign tonight about their expectations, and a story they were trying to blunt from this weekend.

we're back. while we were away, you missed an in studio discussion about our eating habits. we go to steve kornacki and the big board. >> let's take a look here. first of all, this is the map right now of all the states that have voted so far, how they voted. you can see, look, mississippi surrounded by gold states, donald trump's color on this map. so the expectation has been that this year, mississippi would be donald trump state. however, there is now suspense

here. what we're looking for tonight, two key things we're looking for. first of all, donald trump has done very well, for instance, in this states, tennessee, georgia, alabama, he has struggled on saturday, he struggled in arkansas. here is the reason for the suspense. the real reason some suspense in mississippi. it has to do with what happened next door in louisiana on saturday. take a look at this. they had early voting in louisiana. this was conducted a week or two weeks before that primary on saturday. you see about 15% of the votes statewide were early votes. look at this. a landslide for donald trump over ted cruz and marco rubio. but then they had the actual primary day election, 85% of the votes were cast this day. look, ted cruz actually beat out donald trump. so people have looked at this, and one theory that's out there, a lot of speculation about what this means, but one theory is that something happened in this republican race to change it.

right before louisiana, maybe in that debate two days before. so that's what we're looking at for mississippi tonight. it should have been a trump state earlier. if it is close tonight or donald trump is losing, then the idea that something big happened to change the race, it's going to take on a lot of credence. >> we never blame you for technology. you have the toughest job in this room. none of us could do that board. >> i appreciate that. >> thank you, steve. let's go to robert costa with the "washington post" national political reporter. also here with us at msnbc, and ro robert, i want your plot lines, what are the leads you could be writing by the end of post hawaii tonight. >> i think mississippi is a key point. steve brought up some analysis that was points on. senator cruz's ground organization. i've been to mississippi several times in the last few months. the chief person for cruz on the ground, state senator chris m k

mcdaniel, who beat cochran in 2014. he's working as a network for cruz. what happened in louisiana, the ground efforts, cruz is trying to close the gap. a few other things, idaho, organizing is steady for cruz there. a big lead story tonight is michigan. if kasich gets close in michigan, all in for ohio for him, he could be reviving himself in the race. if trump wins big, that shows is he winning over the rust belt. >> you could go long with this kasich campaign plot line, second place finish for ot kasich effort in neighboring and similar michigan tonight, is a can do victory for kasich in michigan. >> if it's a close second. some real come pettpetitive spi. compare them with rubio and he has had a tough few days of

headlines. if kasich surges ahead tonight, especially in the rust belts, that could be big ahead of ohio. >> one more question on rubio. rubio campaign fought back from the story that they were under pressure to pull out, saying, candidate on down, look, if anything, we're under pressure to stay in. can't they no matter what happens tonight, let's say they have a bad outing tonight, just keep at least publicly pushing florida, florida, florida, to quote a friend of mine? >> they can keep pushing florida. another strength for rubio is if he keeping winning in suburban areas. there is an argument to be made that he is best poised among that voter set, among those voters who may be swing voters come november. he wants to be the anti-trump voice in the republican party, so that's another rationale to push on towards cleveland, towards the convention. >> please promise to join us later in the evening.

>> i'll see you then. sounds good. >> thank you. >> let's bring into the conversation, alise jordan, great to you have. >> thanks for having me. >> formerly with the rand paul campaign. formerly of mississippi. >> real mississippi. >> yes. >> so looking at mississippi, is there anything about the mississippi electorate, about what you understand about your home state, that tells you if ted cruz is going to have a shot at breaking donald trump's hold on the deep south tonight. >> it was interesting, because i went down to mississippi on thursday night and actually watched the debate there with some people who were trump supporters and it was a nice mix. and then the debate really did make an impression. it was negative for trump and for rubio in particular. a lot of people said they looked more favorably at kasich, this is my unscientific focus group. talking to different voters, it was interesting, because trump is a middle finger vote i would say. >> the one finger salute. >> exactly. and i wonder, there really did

seem to be hesitation, how much i do want to, you know, i admire trump for speaking out, but i don't know if he could govern responsibly. maybe ted cruz or maybe john kasich. it's going to be interesting to watch i think. >> did you get the sense that there were that many people who hadn't made up their minds. >> definitely. that's a huge disconnect that we forget sometimes, we follow every tiny detail. regular voters aren't getting that. it's pick or choose. this year has been different in terms of the debate getting great viewership. they've been politically engaged this year. the news cycle has been, as it revolves to trump, it hasn't trickled down yet. i do think mitt romney had somewhat of an impact. the con artist argument is getting traction. >> it's interesting that trump is so dominant in terms of the way that people think on the

republican side even people who may not be voting for him are not voting for him because there is something about another candidate that they like. they're not voting for him because of something they dislike. you're voting for him, because you like him. the other candidates aren't driving votes as primary sources. >> it's interesting, because in other states, in previous states, people who voted for trump tended to make up their minds well in advance. and it was settled, and on election day, he tends to do less well than he did in early voting for example, and does less well with voters who just made up their minds. so if there were a lot of undecided voters or waiverering voters, that's not a great sign for trump. >> or rubio. governor phil bryant endorsed cruz at the last second. i've heard it's because he really strongly dislikes trump. he wanted to give cruz a boost.

doing it the night before wasn't the way to endorse and got a lot of traction. anyone who could have been influenced would have been a rubio voter. >> endorsements this year are so different than any other. bryant is making it perfectly. he put it is out in writing and makes zero appearances it ted cruz. that said, everybody else, almost everybody else who has been endorsed by a governor has gone on to lose that state. >> even donald trump losing maine. >> 1,000%. >> thank you, gene, thank you, alise. came back with her accent intact, i might add. another break for us. we're back in just a moment.

looking live at the big board there, concentrating on marco rubio thus far in this

campaign, as we wish to in this very same segment, starting with correspondent dave gutierrez, covering the effort. i saw you earlier, how many stops is this for you today, recognizing that it's really an all florida strategy for the senator? >> reporter: hey, there, brian. well, marco rubio started the day in kissimmee, you know just finished a rally in sarasota, later tonight, he heads to south florida. all in for the rubio campaign. very high stakes. basically they're hinging their entire campaign on florida. it could be a tough night as he had been reporting for marco rubio, potential to finish fourth. we'll see what happens in ohio. campaigned there in the last few days. then hawaii is the wildcard. as you mentioned, the rubio campaign has been pushing back

on the story they're calling utter fiction, some of his advisors as reported by cnn may have been urging him to drop out of the race. they call that completely falls. their communications went on msnbc this morning and pushed back extremely hard on that. throughout the day, the rubio campaign has used the story to fund raise. they say it disseminated in hawaii, but the cruz campaign fires back and said they're not responsible from any way. it shows the stakes here in florida. marco rubio's campaign and the cruz campaigns are going at it. cruz campaign trying to make a play to squeeze rubio out and have the two man-race between donald trump and ted cruz. rubio camp says listen, they've been under dogs in florida before. they're trying this new line of attack, trying to compare donald trump with one of rubio's previous opponents charlie

christ, and they're hoping the attack ads, all these outside groups, spending more than $8 million in attack ads against donald trump, they hope they can gain traction. right now, according to the quinnipiac poll, rubio down eight points in florida. his home state. it has, the state is really key for rubio. they hope they can get some momentum and possibly after the debate later on this week. rachel, back to you. >> to that point about the dirty tricks allegation, which gabe just mentioned, the ted cruz campaign was accused of doing the same dirty trick to marco rubio that they did to ben carson last month. they're accusing ted cruz campaign of spreading a false r rumor. this went out last night from

ted cruz hawaii donald trump ha. advise advisors tell him to dop out. they were urging rubio to get out of the race in the next few days before the florida primary. they deny the report. but the cruz campaign did send it around at least in hawaii, saying they would be wasting their vote. in their own defense, the cruz campaign is saying the hawaii e-mail may have gone out with ted cruz's picture on it, but it wasn't sanctioned by the national ted cruz campaign. they're blaming over zealous volunteers in hawaii. if it sounds familiar, it is what he did to ben carson when they aggressively falls

reporting that ben carson was the one getting out of the race. on iowa caucus night, they phone banked, telling them a vote for ben carson would be a wasted vote. after that, the ted cruz campaign and ted cruz himself, ultimately apologized to ben carson for having done that. but in what looks to be a very similar case, in hawaii, so far, there has been no apology from the ted cruz campaign to marco rubio. joining us now is alex conant. thanks for being with us tonight. >> thanks, rachel. >> did i summarize that accurately in terms of your beef with the ted cruz campaign and what they've reportedly sent out in hawaii to their own supporters and to your supporters. >> that's a fair recap actually. as you know, yesterday, cnn reported, had a false report, prior to running it, didn't even check it.

they had me on the air moments on to correct the record. that didn't stop the cruz campaign from pushing it hard to their supporters, their communications director was tweeting it even though they knew it was false. supporters e-mailed it to our supporters in hawaii saying marco was dropping out, even though they knew it was false. they did exactly the same thing to ben carson. people need to know the truth. especially in florida. because here is what the deal in florida. some of the polls that you were just talking about, what gabe was just reporting on, the only person that can beat donald trump in florida is marco rubio. if you look at the absentee ballots that's already been put in, marco rubio can beat donald trump there, but nobody else can. so anyone in florida who does not want donald trump to be the nominee, they neneed to vote for marco rubio. it's a really important point. >> in terms of the cnn story,

again, your campaign is saying is absolutely falls, and you've gone after cnn for not checking with you, the campaign before they ran it. i have to ask you if you think the story itself was a bit of a dirty trick. if there is somebody out there trying to convince the press or tell a story through the press that the rubio campaign is in a position where at least according to you, it definitely isn't in. >> well, the truth is, i have no idea where the story came from. really, nobody has ever suggested to marco that he should end his campaign early. to the contrary, we feel good about florida. the polls we've seen in the last 48 hours, show marco quickly closing the grap there. the absentee votes are very encouraging for marco. if we win florida, new day on the campaign. 99 delegates. winner take all state. it puts him on track for being the nominee in claeveland.

it will be much harder for donald trump to win the nomination. american politics, i know there did elections happening tonight and they'll be very interesting, but they pale in come pparison,t just for our come paiampaign. >> i can't let you go without asking for your expectations for the four contests tonight. mississippi, michigan, idaho and hawaii, i know you're focused on florida, but what are you expecting tonight. >> ted cruz has to win mississippi. this was a central part of his sec strategy. governor support in the state there, although it wasn't a public event, just a press release he put out. john kasich has spent a ton of time in michigan, that's kind of central to his strategy, as you look forward to ohio. so again, i expect ted cruz to do well in mississippi, expect john kasich to do well in michigan. i think most people are going to go to bed late tonight, idaho and hawaii, we feel all the

states voting tonight, we have the potential to do the best, especially in hawaii, we'll see if ted cruz's dirty trick has any im papact on us. if we win florida, it's a new day in the campaign. irful i fully expect marco rubio to be the nominee. >> thank you. >> for us, another break. >> indeed, we're nearing the one hour mark before the first polls close.

billions are spent to confuse and, dare i say it, flummox the american public. "save 16% on car insurance." "switch now..." well at compare.com, we say enough's enough. so we've created this mind boggling facility. where we're constantly scrutinizing millions of rates... answering the question: who has the lowest. go to compare.com, plug in some simple info and get up to 50 free quotes. choose the lowest, and hit purchase. it's fast and easy. compare.com saving humanity from high insurance rates.

we're competing in all 50 states. every state across the union, we have leadership team. we have over 200,000 volunteers across the country. >> they show you way behind in florida. >> it's interesting. you guys said that also before each of the other states we won. we're competing to win each and every state. we have tremendous support on the grassroots and we're fighting to earn delegates and what it takes to be the nominee. at this point, there are only two candidate whose have a plausible path, that is donald trump and me. both of us have over 300 delegates. he has about 80 more than i do. everyone else is way, way, way below us. >> ted cruz in north carolina, home of the ernhardts.

we can shoot things off of a band-aid box. >> it gets faster but grubber. >> to steve we go next, our gop campaign veteran. steve, i've been thinking about you, listening to the conversation last half hour or so from, you know, pick your poison from dirty tricks to the rest of it. what are you thinking about tonight? >> look, tonight we're going to see how marco rubio does. does he have fourth place finishes. when marco rubio talks about that if he wins florida, it's a new day in the campaign, winning your home state, this deep into a presidential contest, is not a sign of strength necessarily, and so marco rubio is at a tough moment in this campaign. looking tonight to see how john kasich does in the state of michigan. if john kasich can be in a close

second place, it invigorates his campaign as it started to move across the rust belt. can ted cruz win in mississippi. can he take it from donald trump. the big question tonight, at this point in the race, events are moving much faster than the ability of the polls to measure them. so we find out the impact of events like mitt romney's speech, the debate, not from the polls, but on election night in a very fast moving series of events. >> and to be fair, on the other side, the democrats, sanders outing, we were talking about earlier in the last debate, especially visa vise in michigan, at the end of the evening, when did you make your decision, and of late deciders, what affected your vote? >> that's always a key thing here. now, early in the campaign, donald trump supporters, they

made their decision early. the vote is breaking against him in some of the states when we look at the late deciders. ted cruz is exactly right. the great danger that donald trump has always had in the race is being in a two-way race ideological contest with ted cruz. now, ted cruz wants very badly for this to become a two person race. but we'll see tonight on the basis of john kasich's strength in michigan, whether that gives him lift in his home state in ohio, but if kasich can win ohio, and marco rubio can win in florida, then you have four-person race and the more people in this race, the better it is for donald trump. >> steve we'll will be talking you all night. >> my pleasure. >> we'll be back at the top of the hour.

we are back on what has been called super tuesday, ii. we are one hour away from our first poll closing, the state of mississippi. >> super mini tuesday. >> i've been toying with stuff. >> tiny tuesday. >> it's on tuesday and we're on television. >> in mississippi, the front-runners in each party who have so far had a deep lock in the south, no suggestion in the polls or