hit kasich for being an absentee governor. it's hard for him, but that does play as we saw in new jersey. >> when he calls him little johnny kasich. >> he is going to do it like heidi said. >> you got the last word. >> i guess. >> we'll be back monday with more "mtp daily," but between then and monday, look what we have. town hall moderated by willie geist, tomorrow at 8:00 p.m. -- tomorrow at 8:00 p.m. then meet the press coming up, trump, kasich, but "with all due respect" will start right now. i'm mark halperin. >> i'm john helemann. "with all due respect" to ohio, it's pretty nice to be in florida right now.

sports fans, i'm here on the beautiful coast, west palm be h beach, florida, my friend is landlocked, attending a town ha hall, i wants rematch. two of the five states voting on tuesday, in primaries that could win the difference with donald trump locking up the nomination or battle for delegates going to the convention. florida and ohio are must wins for establishment candidates marco rubio and john kasich. facing single elimination contests in their home states. this morning, just down the road from here, rubio talked about his chances and floated the idea of how voters in ohio should be thinking strategically about the best way to stop the donald. >> clearly, john kasich is -- has a better chance of winning ohio than i do, and if a voter in ohio concludes that voting

for john kasich gives us the best chance to stop donald trump there, i anticipate that's what they'll do. >> given the chance to return that favor, john kasich's campaign did not go for the hug this time. rob nichols, one of kasich's top staffers told an ap reporter said we were going to win in ohio without his help, just as he is going to lose in florida without urs. meanwhile, donald trump is going hard after john kasich in this new web video. >> after john kasich helped wall street predator lehman brothers to destroy the economy, he decided to run for the governor of ohio, spending his time everywhere but ohio, especially michigan, the latest disaster in his presidential bid, increased our budget more than any other governor in the u.s. we don't need him in ohio and we don't need him in washington. john kasich, just another all talk, no action politician.

>> mark, my friend, my question for you is whether one or both of these last establishment surviving candidates survive another super-duper tuesday. >> john, this is clearly a tale of difference. this is a -- let me tell you where i am. kasich success story according to his office. a gm plant that got shuttered, a chinese company called foo ya came in, they're expected to add a couple of thousand next year and he will do a town hall, which on the economy is pretty good. if you talk to people in john kasich's land and you talk to john kasich, we're winning ohio, we know the numbers, we know how to run in this state. we've never lost in this state. talk to the rubio people and he'll say i'm going to win, but

it doesn't take much to -- the back ground conversation where they say we'll see if we win. clearly, the public polling, the private polling matches the outlook of the campaigns. rubio people are trying to win, but i think kasich has a better channels. both sides agree buagree bi in. ary. >> that explains the difference in their attitude, strategic voting thing, mark. rubio has the attitude where he is basically saying you'll have a chance in ohio, my strategy is to have a bunch of people stay alive in the race and that's how we stop trump from getting to the majority of delegates. that's also kasich's strategy, but he wants rubio out of the race, because if rubio gets out of the race, he believes he inherits those votes and he can take out trump with a one-on-one race. i this you're right about this. rubio is in real trouble in this state. not impossible, but in real

trouble. kasich has a dogfight. he is a popular governor up there. he won reelection. he is a strong presence, but we have seen some polling lately that suggests that trump is in a statistical tie with him. >> and there is no doubt, i'll just say, that team kasich will be delighted since they've been on the shortened tilting toward rubio and not looking at kasich. last night's republican debate in florida was unrecognizable to those of who may have been expecting another insult infested donald trump pile on. instead, we saw a front-runner doing his best to look like a confident front-runner. everybody else on the stage for various calculated reasons, did not try the assault. rubio is now mostly backed off his tough talk, and ted cruz super pac, says it's not going

go on big in florida. it will lay low, where trump has a commanding poll. the only one is tim miller, the former bush spokes person, super pac, check out this video taken by a reporter, miller v trump on the spin room floor. >> i'm all right. >> keep your hands off, man. >> did a great job with bush. you did a great job representing bush. you did a great job. >> where was it again? >> so john, tim miller is up in trump's grill, but is anybody else involved in the stop trump

movement or otherwise trying to stop trump? >> well, look, we should start calling tim miller don quidoe. there are a lot of groups spending money to trstop him. real people in the party calling for trump to be defeated, that noise, which started a little bit last week, has suddenly gone quiet again. >> yeah, i mean, look, it's going to take a concerted effort. a lot of the people, tim miller told us yesterday, it's going to take a candidate, it's going to take marco rubio, john kasich, or ted cruz to stop him, echoing whatever stop trump arguments out there. none of the three of them are focused on that. rubio and kasich are tying to

win their states and have a positive imagine and cruz is trying to get one-on-one. >> i will say, where is paul ryan? where is mitch mcconnell? where are the leaders of the republican establishment in washington, d.c. where are their voices if he is such a menace? i would like to hear from them. the aforementioned held a news conference at his mar-a-lago club where he announced his campaign rival, dr. ben carson, yes, the same ben carson that once mocked shamele shamelessly, and called pathological. today, carson said that was all par for the course in a republican nomination fight, and urged the party to unite behind trump if he became their presumptive nominee. >> i've come to know donald trump over the last few years. he is actually a very

intelligent man who cares deeply about america. we buried the hatchet that was political stuff. and you know, that happens in american politics. i have found in talking with him that, you know, there is a lot more alignment, philosophically and spiritually than i ever thought there was. one of the real factors for me is what will happen if we allow the political operatives to succeed in their endeavor to stop donald trump. i think it would fracture the party irrepairbly. >> what is the significance of the endorsement, mark? >> four big things.

first carson validates a man of faith. carson still has a following, and his followers make listen to him. three, you combine the two strongest social media forces in the party, carson has a huge facebook following. that's big. finally it, shows the trump campaign is under rated as a political force. corey li co corey lewandowski, that means if you do well in the debate, as trump did last night, if you do badly, you have the endorsement to change the narrative. a smart group and they have more endorsements sitting in the big back pocket of donald trump. >> mark, you're sophisticated analyst, and there is nothing that you said just now that i disagreed with. i am a simpleton, my attitude is trump now has a major governor in chris christie, a major senator, jeff sessions and

perhaps nation's leading sleepwalker as his endorsers. i want to endorse them. >> the other thing i'll say is that you got these other people in this middle group, the people who are like mitt romney, opposed to trump, the people who haven't, i think carson, again, along with christie, is starting to build this notion that whatever problems you have with difficulties, whatever conflicts have occurred in the past, it's okay to endorse him. if trump wins all five states or four or five, i expect next week will be filled with more endorsements for donald trump. when we come back, the latest on the incredible story on trump versus bright bar, the he said/she said that the media is talking about after these words from our sponsor. ...earned you miles to get to the places you really want to go. with the united mileageplus explorer card, you'll get a free checked bag,

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welcome to the buckeye state. we talked on the show breitbar her claim that campaign manager,

corey lewandowski allegedly grabbed her arm and forced her to the ground after a press conference on tuesday. today, this complicated confusing story took more new turns. this morning, breitbar itself a new video showed ben terrace, the "washington post," miss identified the man. this afternoon, another video emerged, this one from msnbc, a different angle, and it does seem to show liewandowski. she filed a criminal complaint with the j utrump camp denies t accusations. trump spoke to katy tur about the alleged incident. >> they're asking for an apology. you've had a very good relationship with that media company. have you spoken to them? has corey spoken to them? >> i like them, but you can't

apologize unless you're wrong. >> she posted a photo of bruises on her arm. >> i don't know. how did they get there? do you know how they got there? >> i'm just reporting on what is being reported. >> i have secret service, cameras, nobody complained, and i know this guy and he is a fantastic guy. >> if it comes to light that something did happen, are you going to do something about it? >> supposing it comes to light, are you going to apologize to him what you're doing? >> i'm not reporting what i saw personally. i'm reporting what michelle fields. >> are you going to apologize to him. >> i won't apologize, but i'll report that nothing happened, certainly. >> all right, here to talk more about this story and try to sort out the two competing narratives, nbc katy tur, who is in palm beach. the press is fascinated by this. issues, whatever the fact, is this a distraction for the trump campaign or they don't care?

>> it's definitely a distraction for the trump campaign. they wanted to come out and talk about the endorsement of ben carson and instead, the violence at his rallies, continued violence, continued disruption at his rallies. the gentleman yesterday who sucker punched a guy in raleigh, north carolina, and this breitbart reporter, and corey lewandowski, that does not seem to be going away. a lot of folks scouring the internet trying to find video of it, different angles of it. each one showing something along the lines of corey reaching towards michelle fields, although there is no smoking gun definitely grabbing her. but instead of talking about ben carson, they're defending corey. he is defending himself. they're talking about this

incident. will it matter to trump supporters? i don't think so. i don't think trump supporters are wavered by any of the controversies that surround him or his campaign. i think the ones that like donald trump have liked donald trump for quite a while, and are unwavering in their support. that's most of them. i will say that i was speaking with one of the trump supporters that i've been talking to for a long time now, since i think last october, november, south carolina voter who said that he just really liked donald trump. nothing has wavered him. but then he said this past week, between the michelle fields incident, between donald trump saying that islam hates us, he is saying he is regretting voting for him in south carolina's primary. >> katy, i want to ask you a more general question about your experience covering the trump campaign, you've been doing it for a long time, pretty much from the beginning. in the course of doing this, have you felt at any point threatened, intimidated, afraid at any trump rallies, in terms

of not just at the rallies themselves, but how you're treated by the trump campaign? >> not necessarily how i'm treated by the trump campaign. i will say that the rallies have gotten tense at times, and they've gotten a little unnerving at times. that's been widely reported. the press generally says that. i've had a lot of very pleasant experiences with trump supporters who have been lovely people and some negative experiences. it can be unnerving at times when donald trump whips up the crowd against the press. that doesn't happen at every single rally. some are worst than others. there have been a number of occasions where it has felt a little uncomfortable. but you know, you're reassured essentially by the fact that there are secret service there. it's definitely not a comfortable working environment when thousands of people are yelling at you and you're stuck penned in the center of an

arena. >> katy, this a tough story for us to report, because on the other hand, the campaign manager we cover everyday and a colleague. so trying to sort of get at the question of who is telling the truth and it's difficult for us. if it wasn't corey, assuming someone did physically, you know, intervene here, who is the third man? any idea who else was in that video who might have done this it if it wasn't corey lewandowski? >> the campaign is pointing to one of the secret service agents, and others who have pointed. breitbarit pointed to them, "washington post" saw it all happen might have confused corey lewandowski with the secret service agent, who was a white male with short brown hair. that could be it. but you know, this is a room full of reporters, and ben terrace is a respected reporter. the idea he would mix the two up is, i think many find to be hard

to swallow. but i guess could it potentially be a secret service member, i don't know. i didn't see it. until there is proof that corey put his hand on her or he did not or somebody else put his hand on her, i think you just need to wait and see before a decision can be made as to guilt. wait and see at least what the police come up with when they are finished with their investigation. >> katy, i'm going to ask you again another broad question and not about how the press is treated but another question about how the rallies are playing out. as you know, someone got cold clocked at a trump rally a couple of days ago, and a perception among some in the press that the rallies themselves in terms of how they're treating protesters have gotten increasingly violent. has the situation been getting worst for protesters in the rallies? >> it's gotten increasingly

tense over the past month or so. it has had moments throughout this entire campaign, but certainly over the past month or so, it has been getting much more tense. there are much more protesters, many more that are interrupting and trying to disrupt these rallies, and donald trump is saying get them out, get them out, over and over again. his voice is loud when he does it. he says in the old days, we could have taken care of them quicker, who knows what that means. he says he wishes he could punch a protester. so the tension in the room is more palpable now than it ever has been and times where you really feel you're on the verge of some sort of violent incident inside one of these rallies, new orleans in particular, just about a week ago, that was certainly a really tense one when there was a number of black lives matters protesters with their arms up trying to disrupt and a number of supporters around them, screaming at them, at the top of their lungs, and it took quite a while for the

cops to get them out of there. >> katy, i say in a heartfelt way, stay safe on the campaign trail. thanks for joining us. coming up, the strange happenings at another press conference today. this time, with marco rubio. after this. more flavorful. delicious. only one egg with better nutrition... like more vitamins d, e, and omega 3s. and 25% less saturated fat. only one egg good enough for my family. because why have ordinary when you can have the best. eggland's best. the only egg that gives you so much more: better taste. better nutrition. better eggs. you're down with crestor. alright! now there's a way you can get crestor for $3. adding crestor, along with diet, lowers bad cholesterol. crestor is not for people with liver disease, or women who are nursing,pregnant, or may become pregnant. tell your doctor all medicines you take. call your doctor if you have muscle pain

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bender. number one, what did you think of the press conference, it was a little unusual. >> let me compliment your hair today as well. >> good as always. >> i was a little -- >> consistent. >> stunned by rubio's press conference. he looked shaken. i thought he looked defeated. i thought he looked like jeb bush did in south carolina. he is given the same type of questions. what happens after tuesday, senator, when the campaign is over. are you going to run for g govern governor. he was frustrated and beaten down by the questions. he says he is looking forward, but it's hard to see what his path is to victory on tuesday. >> the very ones you just talked about, people are saying hey, you got to check monster.com after you lose on tuesday. he had a hard time answering. >> he did, yeah. that's not marco rubio. that's not the rubio i've watched here in florida for a decade. he is quick, glib. someone's phone went off and he

made a joke about siri, but he seemed off his game. >> do you think at this moment they have a plan, a path, to win the primary on tuesday? >> i think they did have a plan a week ago, and that was to go after trump, to try to out trump trump, and you see him now. i mean, he is apologizing for it. you know, he is almost -- and almost blaming his family, you know, my children were embarrassed by it. i can't do it any more. i don't see another answer for that at this point. i mean, it seems to me he has tried to preserve, he spent six years in washington, he and his staff, violently protecting his favorable ratings, he blew it all out with the trump act and now he is trying to pull it back together. >> you've covered florida politics, you know the state well. i ask you, not only that, but you covered jeb bush, and now you're covering rubio. everyone is waiting for jeb right now. does a jeb endorsement actually

matter between now and tuesday? >> in the big scheme of things, no. but here is how it does matter. if when he endorses cruz, if he is out on wednesday endorsing ted cruz it's a signal, remember, two weeks ago, we're talking about bob dole say i would rather have trump than ted cruz, now suddenly the lindsey grahams are saying we'll figure out a way to get behind cruz. if he gives a nod to ted cruz, that's a signal to the rest of the establishment to get behind him. >> did you expect a jeb bush before the primary. >> not before. >> just because why? >> he is not going to endorse trump, and trump is probably going to win. so you know, i think jeb bush has never been one to get out in front on endorsements, lindsey graham style. >> the story of the republican party. could help shape the primary, but not. thank you. we have some bucking in the buckeye state. we'll be right back.

everyday i wake up and play a brilliant, complex, overqualified, get it done woman, who obsessively fights for justice, who cares, who gives a voice to the voiceless. our characters are on television, but the real world, the real world has hillary clinton. a bona fide rolls up her sleeves, in it for you, won't back down, champion for all of us. that's why i'm with hillary. >> i'm with hillary. >> i'm with hillary. >> i'm with hillary. >> join us. >> that was a new eye-catching tv ad that features tv producer shonda rhymes, kasich event beginning soon here in ohio,

bernie sanders going on the airwaves with ads of his own here in ohio and illinois and some of the other states voting on march 15th. that's on tuesday, for this week's episode of the circus, we do in conjunction with bloomberg politics, i sat down pool side with bernie's wife jane, to talk about what it's like to run a campaign that some in the media has decided is almost over. >> i noticed maybe some frustration in the candidates reaction to the reporters asking him, why are you getting out. >> well, because they never ask about the issues. no matter how times he says it, and he says let me ask, you know, here i am, let me answer your questions, the question is when are you getting out of the race. no, we're not getting out. it's a story of bernie. when he is committed to something, he doesn't give up. so we just go. we're hoping the votes are in the hands of the people and they're smarter than what

they're hearing. we know anything can happen in politics. >> even going from dead last. >> yes. >> that full episode of the show, the circuit, will end sunday night at 8:00 eastern time. now to talk about the democratic race, political correspondence den, kasie hunt, thanks for coming on the show. let me start by asking you how it feels on the campaign trail. bernie sanders was in north carolina, one of the other five states voting on tuesday. did that event that you were at in north carolina feel like a candidate who is dead or all but dead? >> reporter: pretty far from it i would say. i was a little surprised. north carolina is a place where the clinton campaign wants to make it look like sanders is competing hard because they're still feeling confidence where they stand there. it's certainly possible their

efforts especially with african-american voters, the polling is showing her ahead. but i will say the energy on the ground at the north carolina rally that sanders held today was more suggestive of states where he has actually been able to pull out a win or at least significantly close the gap. there were a couple of thousand people inside an auditorium. the sanders campaign doesn't often underbook their venues, and they had filled this one up and had a crowd of a couple thousand people lined up outside. it's something to keep an eye on. tv buys in florida and north carolina. so they are making a certificate why us play for it. and of course, now he is is here in toledo, ohio, trade message over and over, but the crowd is a little smaller. >> so you've got the five states on tuesday, and before michigan, the sanders campaign looked at the day as more of a day to win delegates, not particularly to get victory, some of the later states they're going to try to

win, north carolina, missouri, illinois and ohio. is the campaign thinking that rather than just this be a day of survival and delegate accumulation, they can pick off states that actually get some ws on tuesday? >> i think that there is a sense that to meet their expectations for tuesday, it would be better for them to have at least one, if not more wins on the board. i think the state at this point that they probably feel best about is missouri. he is going to be spending a significant chunk of his weekend in missouri. it's a place where i think they've got a sense that it's a little bit more like some of these other places he has been able to capitalize on. ohio and illinois in particular, possibly the next ones, but of course, the challenge there, again, appealing to african-american voters, especially ohio has a closed primary as opposed to michigan's open one. they're making something of an interesting play in chicago for african-american voters, trying to tie hillary clinton to rahm emanuel, who has had all kinds of problems in that particular

community. but i do think you're right. the overall strategy seems to be a shift, whereas before, they felt like they needed to put the wins up. now they feel like they can focus more on delegates, or even that they need to focus on delegates to push back against the clinton strategy. i think the narrative will run against them if they don't manage to win one of these states on tuesday. >> so again, these fieve states are strong clinton states. they're big states. not as well-known still. states where the electorate is more diverse. so why are they more bullish on the states after tuesday than they are on the ones voting on tuesday. >> if you look at the calendar, it goes past to the places that are stronger for them. there are some delegate prizes where they might be able to do well. if you talk to clinton campaign folks, they actually, a little bit of fear of a long stretch

where it might be tougher for her to put a win on the board. arizona being the most likely place where they can focus. they have this caucus focus strategy that is actually instead a delegate focused strategy. they feel like if they're going to lose the states, they want to stem the bleeding on the del gay side. they're looking at places that are a lot of caucuses states, but like washington state, where of course, he has played pretty well. they feel like if she had a southern fire wall, they potentially have a western fire wall. if they can continue to build or sustain a level of momentum, it does look better in the long run, and as you know, jane sanders said to you, there is no sign that they are going to be dropping out of this race. i think the rhetoric from the clintons that seems to try to push them out, just gets under the skin of the candidate, in a way that makes it more likely he is going to han on and try to

demand everything he can of them, even if he doesn't end up with the delegates he needs to win the nomination. >> i saw him yesterday in post michigan, he was still kind of in a grumpy mood. is he in a grumpy or less grumpy mood since he has been revived by michigan? >> i think less so. i mean, you know, the mood of the campaign really shifted after what happened in nevada, and south carolina, of course. there was much more of the sense that it was a slog, things may have changed, the candidate kind of willing to engage on the trail, came out of new hampshire. he is very gruff with the premise that he might drop out. please, excuse me, next question, next question. he was definitely energized by the michigan win. i do think they're still in the middle of this difficult period, though, and an element of keeping your head down. i don't think that they've lost that frustration about

increasing sense or even pushing for him to get out of this race, when they feel like, you know, they basically have proved the opposite in michigan. >> all right, kasie hunt in toledo. coming up, an emotional farewell for nancy reagan. deni. hey. deni. good to meet you dennis.

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goodbye to nancy davis reagan. a beautiful, smart and gracious woman. a woman who captured the heart of a man who loved his craft, his country, and his countrymen. >> as her own health declined, she was quite adamant and vocal about reunites with my father on the side, after her passing. i am hoping for god's peace of mind that she got her wish. >> she knew how protect her husband and her president, but also her own place. to stand her ground. and once it had been resolved, to move on. god bless, nancy. mrs. ronald reagan, first lady. and the unlikely friend of a reporter. that was former white house chief of staff, james addison

baker, iii, tom brokaw and nancy davis. speaking in simi valley, california, where today, the former first lady was laid to rest. here to talk with us now about her legacy, bloomberg views, al hunt. thanks for joining us. give us a sense, what struck you first off the bat? >> well, the complexities of nancy reagan, but i think jim baker captured what not only a loyal, but astute person she was. there wouldn't have been a president reagan without nancy reagan. jim baker never would have been chief of staff if it hadn't been for nancy reagan's influence. i think that set the tone for the whole first administration, and the second administration, she was a driving force with george schultz and getting reagan to establish a new relationship with the then soviet union. she was a formidable person.

she loved herr ronny and sheet great political instincts. >> one of the things said in the eulogy, ronald reagan's important advisor. in what ways do you think that was true? where was nancy reagan's influence profound where he ran his administration? >> well, it was remarkable. she didn't try toy influence, se didn't get involved in details. as far as the whole tone, the tenor, the people that she liked her husband to surround himself with. as i said, jim baker and nancy forged an incredibly close relationship, actually with mike deefer, her long time friend. the second administration, my wife did a long documentary on nancy reagan, which was fascinating. and was able to report that she had literally scores of phone

calls with george schultz in 1985, '86, '87 and they were trying to maneuver around bill clark, who ultimately dumped, and that really was to influence her husband on dealings with the soviet union, which as i say, and it certainly worked. they signed an historic arms control treaty. i'll also tell you that piece that judy did, which i thought was very complimentary, nancy didn't like. because she said that it made her look more influential, and that made ronny look less influential. she cared first and foremost about herronny. >> she had a lot of loyalists, she had detrek tack tors, and i think that contributed to some of the negative perceptions that people had at the time about nancy reagan, most of it has faded now. do you think most of those

issues were related just to how tough she was? she was a tough lady. >> well, no, there were some other things too. she was not a good mother. actually, patty davis, as moving as she was today, it was clear. she was not a good mother. she was devoted to ronald reagan and anything that got in the way was a distraction. she had sometimes lavish taste that was embarrassing for the white house, so she wasn't a perfect woman by any means. we hear about influential first ladies, she is from that league. >> yeah, i think al, the other thing you have to say for nancy reagan, again, we talk sometimes about presidents and thinking about their post presidencies and how they have after they leave office. it seems to me she was an exemplary post first lady. she took care of him once alzheimer's hit him and building up the library in simi valley. >> and also issues she cared

about. stem cell research, even gun control. she was at least several years ago, i know bothered by the right ward drift of the republican party. she thought it had gone well beyond ronald reagan's revolution if you will. i'll tell you one quick story. as i say, she and my wife judy knew each other well. she called judy one time in september 2008, right after the republican convention, and i was with my wife. she picked up the phone. the first thing nancy said is why did john pick that woman as his running mate. she had keen political insights, and she really did think that the party was drifting too far right. she would have been mortified by this campaign in 2016 on the republican side. >> i could tell you from my own experience, having had one dinner with her, she had an incredible appetite for political gossip. nothing more she wanted to know about me than john edwards.

she was very plugged in. she cared about the republican party. al, you are great. always a pleasure to talk to you. thank you for coming on to talk about this. coming up, donald trump's path to the nomination and the delegate math that will get him there. our new by the numbers segment, after this. if you're watching us in washington, d.c., keep in mind, you can listen as well on the radio/radio, 99.1. we'll be right back. want to go. with the united mileageplus explorer card, you'll get a free checked bag, two united club passes, priority boarding, and 30,000 bonus miles. everything you need for an unforgettable vacation. the united mileageplus explorer card. imagine where it will take you. find fast relief behind the counter allergies with nasal congestion? with claritin-d. [ upbeat music ] strut past that aisle for the allergy relief

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if marco, if the governor, if ted had more votes than me in the form of delegates, i think whoever gets to that position as opposed to solving the artificial number set by somebody, i think that whoever gets the most delegates should win. that's what i think. >> that was donald j. trump, billionaire, at the debate last night, talking about the 1237 delegates that he needs to secure the nomination for president of the united states.

as part of our new week ly by te numbers segment, we've been using our front-runners to use to achieve the goals, two particular states going to the polls on tuesday. >> donald trump has racked up victories in most of the contests so far. >> we're having millions of people come up. >> his reward, 458 delegates, more than any single candidate. the front-runner is technically losing the delegate race. one magic number. 1237. trump can collect that many delegates, he is a republican nominee. if he doesn't, chaos at the convention from cleveland. this tuesday may decide it all. five states are up for grabs. but two matter the most. florida, home of marco rubio. ohio, land of john kasich. each is a must win for its native son. also huge for donald trump.

if trump loses these states, it all but ensures a contested convention. >> boy oh boy. >> he would need 70 me% of the remaining. to put it in perspective, he would have to win all of the winner take all and get two-thirds in proportional states. in a crowded three or four-way field, that's pretty much mission impossible. if he wins florida and ohio, basically basically coronation. all trump would have to do is pick up arizona, delaware and new jersey. game over. what if trump wins florida, but loses ohio? >> we just keep going and going and going. going and going and going. going and going and going. mark, that was an exceptionally clarifying piece

what's at stake here on tuesday, how important florida and ohio are. what do you think that tells us? what do you deduce from those numbers about what the right strategy is for the stop trump movement? do they want to continue with the fractured field or do they want to actually end up in a one-on-one situation with either ted cruz versus donald trump, that's the most likely thing, or maybe a john kasich versus donald trump one-on-one down the line? >> yeah, i john and karen kasich just showed up. you'll be hearing them, because they've just gotten underway. look, i know a lot of smart people, asked them for different likelihoods, have cruz get him one-on-one, some people think kasich and rubio win their home states and all four of them keep going. some think it's inevitable rubio will lose. i believe, i believe that people are under estimating two things.

one, john kasich's ability to win delegates in a three way if rubio loses his state and also under estimating cruz's ability to poe potentially win. the other variable, just how much does trump have to get? what percentage does he have to get to be a lock. as low as 40 and high as 48. >> right. it's interesting. i mean, look, we can see the two easy scenarios, where if he loses florida and ohio, you're almost certainly going to end up in a contested convention, probably nobody will get to 1237. that's what that piece showed. we can see if he wins both, he is likely to be the nominee and really likely to get to 1237. what's interesting is the tweener scenarios, the rubio loses florida and kasich wins ohio. i think what's striking about that piece is that it shows you that actually if that scenario

plays out and that's quite a likely scenario, it's going to be hard for trump to get to 1237. a lot rides on the man behind you, there in ohio, if he could pull that off, we might be headed for a contested convention in cleveland. >> that's why we heard today on the stump going after kasich in the web video. the kasich believes will turn into a paid television ad in ohio. because trump, it's a binary thing for him. if he could put kasich away, he can sew up the nomination. we'll be right back, after this, with who won, not just the day, but the whole darn week. perfect. only one egg with more great nutrition... like 4 times more vitamin d and 10 times more vitamin e. and 25% less saturated fat. only one egg good enough for my family. because why have ordinary

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are headache, diarrhea, and dizziness. all my life, he's protected me. now i am giving back. ask their doctor about once-daily namenda xr and learn about a free trial offer at namendaxr.com. so john, who won the week? >> i would say on the basis of his upset, huge upset in michigan, bernie sanders won this week. you can't overstate how difficult it will be for him to

be the democratic nominee, but boy, he revived himself with that win. >> he did, no question. bernie sanders went from dead in the eyes in the media to very much alive. bloomberg politics up right now. until monday, sayonara. coming up, "hardball" with chris matthews. stirring up trouble, let's play "hardball." good evening, i'm chris matthews, out in los angeles, where i attended the funeral for former first lady, nancy reagan. a personal ceremony up at the reagan library and some of the poignant moments. our good friend ron reagan later this hour. it was great what he had to say. i have to begin with the rising violence and protests at trump rallies. moments away at taking