and donald trump has yet to command even half of that. >> lawrence o'donnell, we'll see you tonight on "the last word." thank you so much. >> thanks, chris. >> that's going to do it for this hour. i'm chris jansing coming to you live from the urban farmer's steakhouse in downtown cleveland. "mtp daily" with steve kornacki starts now. if it's monday, it's the mother of all make or break moments in the state that calls itself the mother of presidents. ohio. could the buckeye state's own governor keep donald trump from steamrolling to the republican nomination? john kasich has yet to win a single primary, but, just one win in his home state could turn this race into chaos. this is "mtp daily" and it starts right now.

and good evening. i'm steve kornacki in for chuck todd. welcome to "mtp daily." in the revolt against donald trump, it all comes down to this. we are, right now, just 14 hours away from the opening of polls in what will be a supervised tuesday showdown. we have winner-take-all contests in florida and ohio. it's a chance in those states for donald trump to deliver twin knockout blows. one to marco rubio in florida. the other potentially to john kasich in ohio. we also have primaries in illinois, in missouri, in north carolina, even one overseas. altogether, hundreds of delegates up for grabs on the republican side, in what could be the republican establishment's last stand against the forces of donald trump. and the stakes for the republican party could not be higher after what we saw this weekend. a weekend of chaos, of arrests, security concerns, threats of

retaliation, and canceled events. all of that consuming the republican party's front-runner and his campaign, and prompting a bipartisan backlash over trump's inflammatory rhetoric. with that backdrop of unrest, protesters gathered outside of trump rallies today in hickory, north carolina, and tampa, florida. there were no physical altercations to report, no reports of arrests, but tensions did flare in north carolina, when an apparent trump supporter lifted up a large printout of the confederate flag with trump's campaign slogan "make america great" was written on it. the sign was pulled down and ripped up by demonstrators. all of this comes as trump backer ben carson delivered a message to trump supporters this morning. >> they can submit to them and meekly just do whatever those protesters want them to do. or they can fight back. >> and sarah palin followed suit, ripping into protesters and the media. she stumped for trump today in

tampa before heading back to alaska. this after her husband was hospitalized from injuries in a snowmobile accident. here's what palin had to say. >> what we don't have time for is all that petty, punk-ass little thuggery stuff that's been going on with these quote/unquote protesters, who are doing nothing but wasting your time. and the media, being on the thugs' side. what the heck are you guys thinking, media? it doesn't make sense! >> now, marco rubio, john kasich, and ted cruz, all of them slammed trump today. none, though, still will go so far as to say they won't support trump if he emerges as the republican party's nominee for president. this is what cruz had to say today when he is asked, what it would take to change his mind. >> if, for example, he were to go out on fifth avenue and shoot somebody, i would not be willing to support donald trump.

at the outset of this campaign, i committed, i will support the republican nominee and i honor my word. >> now, comments like that are drawing a stinging rebuke from the white house. here's what press secretary josh earnest had to say today. >> it's pretty clear, i think, to most people. to most observers, exactly what mr. trump is up to. but it's not clear at all what the rest of the republican party is up to. because on one hand, they, you know, wring their hands about mr. trump's behavior, but then when asked, they pledge fealty to his campaign in the hopes that he will be elected to lead the greatest country on the planet. and at some point, somebody in the republican party is going to have to step up and show some leadership. >> rubio may be the first to break that streak. he says he's worried that someone could be killed amid all of the unrest. this is what he said while campaigning in florida today.

>> what we see, instead, is a new brand of leadership, which is no leadership at all. which says to people, yes, get angry. get even angrier! and let's take it out on these people? and it's everybody else's fault that things are going wrong in our country. and the result is we are now a nation where people hate each other. >> the whole episode has sparked a firestorm of reaction on the left. chuck todd moderated an msnbc exclusive town hall with bernie sanders. it's going to air at 6:00 p.m. eastern, right here. and during the show, he asks sanders about rubio's comments. >> marco rubio this morning said the following. "we are now a nation where people hate each other." it was sort of a stark -- and obviously, he's reacting to the donald trump rallies. how do you react to what -- >> i don't agree with that at all. i understand where senator rubio is coming from. and what he is disturbed about and what i am disturbed about is we have a major candidate for president of the united states, donald trump, who is literally

inciting violence among his supporters. when he says that he is prepared to pay the legal fees for somebody who sucker punches somebody, what he is really essentially saying is, go do it, supporters. go beat up people. >> it's a permission slip? >> absolutely. it's more than a permission slip. it's an enticement. it's saying, you can beat up people. that's what this campaign is about. don't worry about it. i'll pay the legal fees. that is outrageous. >> you can catch all of that exclusive msnbc town hall. chuck todd and bernie sanders tonight right here, 6:00 p.m. eastern. you're not going to want to miss that one. and we are going to dig in, and look at the violence and anger on the trump trail in just a moment as trump prepares to hold a rally in ohio tonight. but first, we're going to turn now to the high-stakes revolt against trump in the republican party, because tomorrow, it all comes down to the state of ohio. and right now, it doesn't look good for rubio to stop trump in florida, in marco rubio's home state. there are more than 600,000

votes that have already been cast in the florida republican primary. and kosk to the nbc news "wall street journal"/marist poll that was released yesterday, trump holds a 22-point lead over rubio amongst folks who say they've already voted. let's crunch the numbers, because math is king in this nomination contest. and after all, today is pi day, march 14th, 3/14. this is the most likely scenario as we take a look at the playing field in front of us. this is a base line as to what to expect tomorrow. the most likely scenario would have trump winning tomorrow. the polls have it him up pretty big. also illinois, perhaps a narrow victory in north carolina. add those together, that would give him a total of about 639 delegates, as of tomorrow. then, also tomorrow, cruz, he's shown strength in the south. he could win missouri. he certainly has done well around missouri. let's give him that for the purposes of this exercise. that would bring him to about 457 delegates.

kasich, giving him the the edge in his home state of ohio. let's say he takes that. that's going to move him with a couple of other second and third place showings tomorrow to 180 delegates, roughly. and rubio's best hope tomorrow may well be the nine delegates that are up for grabs in the northern mariana islands. a win there would give him roughly 179 delegates. he may be in fourth place tomorrow, if he can't win his home state. now wonder this scenario, if this is what happens tomorrow, from that point forward, donald trump would need roughly 60% of the remaining delegates to clinch the nomination on the first ballot to avoid the contested convention scenario. and the map after tomorrow, the you look at it right there on your screen, it does seem to favor trump. there are a lot of northern states where trump could do very well. we've seen this already with his huge victories in states like new hampshire, michigan, massachusetts. look at the northeast there. look at wisconsin. look even at arizona. a state where immigration, his signature issue, looms so large.

so here is the very conservative scenario after tomorrow. we're saying donald trump isn't going to break 50% in any single contest, after march 15th, all the way to the finish line. so that means ted cruz picks up at least six more states along the way. even allowing for that conservative estimate, trump would still have roughly 1,190 delegates. and that would put him just shy of the 1,237 you would need for the nomination. and again, that's a fairly conservative scenario there. so with all of that in mind. we're seeing republican business leaders flood the zone with anti-trump ads. here's the latest from our principles pac. this is a group run by former romney advisers and funded by prominent republican business leaders. >> there was blood coming out of her eyes, blood coming out of her, wherever. >> women. you have to treat them like [ bleep ]. >> this is how donald trump talks about our mothers -- >> our sisters. >> our daughters. >> if you believe america deserves better, vote against

donald trump. >> that pac has aired $3.4 million in ads like the one you just saw against trump. and i'm joined now by ken blackwell. he was ohio's secretary of state. before that, the mayor of cincinnati. now he's a senior adviser to our principles pac. so he's obviously interested in this effort to deny donald trump the nomination. ken, thanks for taking a few minutes. let me start with the simplest question -- >> good to see you, steve. >> we see ted cruz, marco rubio, john kasich right now refusing to come out and say, if donald trump is the nominee win won't support him. let me ask you this question. if donald trump is such a unique threat to the republican party, maybe even to the country, why can't they come out and just say, i can't vote for this guy to be president? >> well, because i think they want to cross that bridge when they get to it. look, there are millions of people speaking with their vote, and they've voted for trump. what we're trying to do is to shine some light on who donald

trump is and say to the remaining voters, you know, don't fall for the okey-doke. donald trump has never been a conservative. he's just recently aligned himself with the republican party. and he has not embraced the constitution and he's more concerned about the rule of trump than he is about the rule of law. we think that ohio, in particular, has an opportunity to slow the trump train down. and i think a contested convention in cleveland, ohio, where everything is done in the light of day and everybody puts their strength forward, we can come up with a candidate that unites the party. so, look, we don't have to trample on the aspirations. we don't have to ignore or marginalize the frustration that a lot of voters who have voted

for trump have experienced after seven years of barack obama, and who feel that they've been marginalized and ostracized by the so-called washington elite. i have -- through the club for growth, the national rifle association, i'm in leadership positions in major conservative operations, and we are concerned about the constitution and we want to make sure that the constitution is the playbook of american government, because it has been the playbook for american exceptionalism. and let me just say, just as you see folks creating bad judgment at trump rallies, believe me, over two cycles, i've seen a.c.o.r.n., black lives matter, you name it, folks funded by the left, who have been disruptive -- >> but ken, let's -- ken, ken,

let's stick on your party right now. because you're mentioning there, the possibility of an open convention. of going to cleveland and coming up with maybe a different candidate there. and maybe a candidate other than donald trump. but, look, if donald trump gets to cleveland. let's say he's short of 1,237, but he has the most delegates, the most popular votes, he has the most states won. he comes there in that position. because that's the position he's in right now and is likely to be in at the end of this thing. can the republican party saying with donald trump, you cannot have the nomination? can the republican party do that and actually have a chance to win the election in november? or will donald trump and those millions of people just walk away? >> well, i don't think the millions of people are going to walk away if we handle that correctly, look the convention process has a moderating effect. it can get you the blend of themes coming out of the campaign. it can get you the sort of party ticket that can speak to the

broad aspirations of a lot of folks, but it won't happen if, in fact, we don't shine a light on who donald trump is, and he wins ohio tomorrow, he wins florida tomorrow, and he wins 1,237 delegates. you cannot take it away from him. but there is nothing undemocratic, there is nothing untoward about saying, we are playing to slow the train down and to throw it into an open, transparent contested convention. >> okay, ken blackwell -- >> among republican leaders. >> ken blackwell, former secretary of state of ohio, describing a scenario we have not seen in the modern era of politics, an open convention. we will see if that's where we're headed after tomorrow, but thanks for the time tonight. appreciate it. and stopping trump for the republicans who want to do that will mean one heck of a showdown at that convention this summer in cleveland. and here with an insider's guide to that explosive scenario ken blackwell was starting to

outline, i'm joined by sasha eisenberg. author of "how to steal a nomination from donald trump." so, sasha, you heard ken blackwell there. i think he's saying, this could be an open transparent process, but i'll ask you what i asked him. if we get to the end of this primary process and trump has the most delegates, he's won the most states, he's won the most votes of any candidate, how do republicans say, you still can't have the nomination? >> part of it is the scenario that secretary blackwell laid out, that starts in cleveland from scratch on july 18th or whatever the convention begins, is just not the case. it's already begun. and saturday, in iowa, there are 99 county conventions, where precinct delegates who were elected in the 1,681 precinct caucuses we covered in february, go and vote for the individual delegates who go from county conventions to district conventions. these are the individuals who will go to cleveland. and so, we're talking about the numbers of delegates that people are winning. but the individual delegates who

are selected to fill those spots, will have votes on rules decision, credentials decision, and after a first ballot in which no candidate gets a clear majority will start to have a free hand to vote. and so, this game is already taking place, and there's not a lot of transparency or public accountability. and for all the talk about the establishment being weak this year in stopping donald trump, we're now in the part of the campaign, the shadow campaign, that is set by, quite literally, establishment rules. these are the rules of the republican party and the rules can be rather wantonly rewritten, as necessary, to, you know, get to an outcome that party leaders want. >> you see, you're outlining sort of mechanically how it could be done. but i guess, is there a thinking here about bigger picture? if we just put a scenario on the screen. if trump's at 1,190 and 1,237 is the second number, and second place is at 650. it's a big gap there, a big gap in the popular vote. public relations of it, can you

get away with that as a party? >> i think the decision that republican party leaders, both in the stateses with who decide on their own delegate states and in cleveland, at the convention, will be, you know, what is a worse scenario. nominating donald trump to be the republican nominee or going through what would be an unquestionably disastrous media performance. and, you know, quite possibly, have, you know, real mayhem on the floor when hundreds of trump supporters, who have showed up, expecting that their guy is, as you say, won the most votes, should be nominated and sees it taken away from him. so there's not a good choice here. now, there are going to be countervailing pressures within the party. i think mitch mcconnell would probably rather see donald trump gone, and, you know, see republican independent senators not have to campaign with him. and if the cost of that is

losing a presidential blallot i november, it might be worthwhile to keep a republican house and senate. you're going to see a lot of competing incentives for people who carry the republican banner. you know, local -- state party leaders may say, forget the presidency, it's lost, but i have county executives who i want to make sure get elected. i have mayors and state legislative caucuses that i want to keep. and that could drive a very different set of pressures than the one we're talking about for the top of the ticket. >> we're so used to thinking of these conventions every four year as glorified infoinfomerci maybe not this year. >> happy pi day. >> thank you. we'll have more on the troubling tone from the trump campaign trail ahead. trump denies there is any violence at his campaign events, but as his fans continue to clash with protesters, is his heated rhetoric fanning the flames? stay tuned. ♪

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no violence. you know how many people have been hurt at our rallies? i think like, basically, none, other than, i guess, maybe somebody got hit once. there's no violence. there's a love-fest. these are love-fests. >> welcome back to "mtp daily." you just heard donald trump's latest comments on the disturbing clashes at his rallies. this was his first appearance in north carolina since last wednesday's violent scene. a protester, being escorted out of trump's fayetteville rally was hit in the face by a supporter who was arrested the next day when this video emerged. and some new news on this incident now. just this afternoon, the cumberland county's sheriff's office in north carolina just released a statement saying that they are still investigating whether there was conduct on the part of mr. trump or the trump campaign, which rose to the level of inciting a riot.

after friday's cancellation of a chicago rally that erupted in choose, trump returned to the trail on saturday. a man rushed the stage before being blocked by secret service agents. hillary clinton and bernie sanders swiftly condemned trump, and said that he is inciting violence. his republican rivals have had more trouble respond together front-runner. they're navigating personal concern and party loyalty, but through it all, trump maintains that he is not responsible for any violence at his rallies. but he hasn't ruled out standing behind his supporters who commit the violent acts. this is what he told chuck todd on sunday. >> do you plan on paying for the legal fees of this older gentleman in north carolina who sucker punched the protester? >> well, i'm not aware -- i will say this, i do want to see what that young man was doing, because he was very taunting, he was very loud, very disruptive, and from what i understand, he was sticking a certain finger up in the air. >> it's possible you could help him with legal fees, if this man

needs it? >> i've actually instructed my people to look into it, yes. >> trump is set to hold a rally at the top of the hour in vienna, ohio. trymaine lee has been doing a lot of reporting outside of trump's most recent rallies. he joins me now from nearby niles, ohio. so trtrymaine, what have been y been hearing? >> reporter: we're about eight miles away from where donald trump is expected to speak. and the line stretches all the way around the parking lot. you see, it extends here. folks are waiting very patiently. there have been buses taking folks. we haven't seen one in quite a while. talking to people here, there is a mix of excitement. many people are clearly donald trump supporters. others are kind of torn between john kasich, the hometown guy, or donald trump. a number of young people, i think, this is the part that's kind of interesting. the level of engagement of the young people out here,s those who are voting for the first time. i want to toss to some video i

shot earlier, of a young man who said, he's a little torn of who to vote for, but it's his first time voting. let's take a listen. >> this is my first election. i'm going to be 20 here in april. my first election i'm actually voting in. and this is what i'm handed. hillary clinton and donald trump? some of my friends are just voting for trump because they think he's funny. >> reporter: i'll tell you what, this is clearly a different scene than what we've seen in st. louis and even kansas city and chicago. but i think this might be logistical kink they've worked out. we're seven miles away from where donald trump is expecting to speak. the line here is waiting for buses. even when you get to the airport where the speech is supposed to happen, no one can get even close. there aren't any protesters here. that's the difference, it's quiet here, it's peaceful. there aren't any protesters here to confront these folks. >> trymaine lee in nile, ohio. thanks for joining us. appreciate the report there. now we'll turn to brian levin,

director for the nonpartisan center for hate and extremism at california state university, san bernardino. thanks for joining us. i'm just curious, watching the scenes unfold this weekend with the rest of the country, i'm trying to think of a precedent, i'm trying to think of another example, maybe in modern times, of something like we saw over the weekend. i'm kind of drawing a blank. what about you? >> certainly not during the last half insure. look, we've seen people who use language that's been divisive. george wallace, for instance. pat buchanan, but what we haven't seen is a front-runner using it, and with the impromateur of aggressive force in the campaign. and just with respect to the incitement investigation, the supreme court back in the 1960s had a case involving incitement. and what they require in order for criminal charges to be levied is an immediate call to

criminality and something that's directed specifically towards it. i don't know if mr. trump has met the legal standard for criminal incitement, but certainly, what he is doing is fueling the fear and that's something i think is far more common among his supporters than, for instance, even bigotry, although, there is widespread support within the extremist community, for mr. trump, from everything from clan groups to storm front, white nationalists, and others. >> that's interesting. because obviously the whole controversy over donald trump and the seeming reluctance to call out david duke a couple weeks ago, and as you say, these extremist white supremacist groups that have said favorable things about him. at the same time, i was struck, there's this article in "the new york times" today, a reporter went down to pampa and went to a trump office down there. the headline on this says, trump's tampa office is an unlikely melting pot. it's a very interesting read, basically saying, look, the image of trump supporters are the sort of aggrieved white working class. but the people here, the article

says, noteworthy for their ethnic diversity. i wonder, is there a chance here that we're sort of coming up with almost a stereotype or a character of what trump's feeding into. and maybe there's also something broader that we're not seeing in this article is maybe noticing. >> i think you hit on it very well. look, there is a ground swell of support within the extremist world for mr. trump that we haven't seen in some time. however, they're not the majority of his supporters. what i think they have in common is a desire for authentic leadership and they look at four or five answers. they're scared, they want strength. they also want a simple message and that message often comes at the cost of stereotypes and separation. so what i think what we have is a fluid group of disenfranchised folks who fear both external things like terrorism, but also internally, jobs going overseas,

and what they are susceptible to is being hooked into aggression and bigotry. i'm not saying mr. trump is a bigot, nor am i saying the vast majority of his supporters are bigots, but if we look at some of the polling, specifically out of south carolina, where more folks who support donald trump say they wish the south won the civil war, there is a slope there, that if he's not careful, can tilt into this incendiary aggression that also can be intertwined with prejudice. and i think that's what he has to worry about. can he pivot back, because once you start a fire, you might not be able to contain it. >> all right. brian levin from cal state, bernardino, thanks for hthe tim. >> thank you. still ahead, hillary clinton takes donald trump to task. a closer look at how she and bernie sanders are both talking about trump on the stump. and our panel weighs in on the super tuesday stakes for both sides tomorrow. that's later in the hour. stay tuned, you're watching "mtp daily." vo: know you have a dedicated

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still ahead on "mtp daily," we're gearing up for our democratic double header here on msnbc. we're going to preview tonight's big town hall with bernie sanders. but first, josh lipton has the cnbc market wrap. >> thanks, steve. stocks end mixed, but little change ahead of the fed rate decision on wednesday. the dow rises 15. the s&p is off 2. the nasdaq ads 1. the labor department says unemployment fell in 28 states in january. it rose in 8 and was unchanged in 14. job growth was strongest in florida, texas, and north carolina. and starwood shares gained nearly 8% today. the company, which was set to merge with marriott, has received a competing big. a chinese group is offering $14 billion for the chain. that's it from cnbc, first in business worldwide. y service, and that what goes down doesn't always come back up. ♪

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people need to vote as though their future was at stake, because it is at stake. i don't think the stakes have ever been higher or the rhetoric on the other side ever been lower. it is time for us to unite as a country and divisiveness. >> and that was hillary clinton at a rally in chicago earlier today. clinton will be taking part in an msnbc town hall, moderated by chris matthews, tonight at 7:00 p.m. she's going to address most likely trump's rhetoric during that event. meanwhile, sanders spoke with chuck todd for an msnbc town hall that's going to air right before the hillary clinton town hall. the sanders' one will air at 6:00, right after this show. responding to an audience question at the town hall,

sanders talked about the uphill delegate fight that he's facing and the possibility of doing away with the super delegate system altogether. >> secretary clinton is the candidate of the establishment, all right? so she has all of the governors, she has almost all of the mayors, all of the congressmen, all of the senators, it is true. and many are super delegates. but here's what is really weird. we won new hampshire by over 20 points. we are to take on the governor, and we had to take on a united states senator. and yet it is likely that super delegates in that state will actually vote or are intending to vote for secretary clinton, despite the fact that the people in that state have spoken very strongly for me. and we're seeing that around the country. so to answer your question, i think what people should be saying to super delegates. look, if brrpernie sanders wins state with a big vote, why donate you vote with the people of your state? >> and my colleague kasie hunt

is covering the sanders' campaign. she joins us now from charlotte, north carolina. kacey, that's an interesting new twist on the super delegate situation from the sanders' campaign. we've been hearing before this the idea that, hey, look, if bernie sanders can catch hillary clinton in the pledged delegate count, the delegates given out in these primaries and caucuses, the super delegates should follow suit and go with that. but looking at the pledge delegates alone, he faces quite a gap there. >> reporter: he does face a gap, steve. and i think that there is some truth to this idea that if the pledged delegates start to go in bernie sanders' favor, there will be a lot of pressure on many of these super delegates to switch sides. we saw some of that in 2008. so i don't think that's out of the realm of possibility. part of the reason the clinton campaign is so hyperfocused on this pledge delegate lead is because they know it could be a political problem for them, to have to deal with that, right? they don't want to be seen as winning this, because the super delegates are with her.

they want to win on pledge delegates. now, their argument is that they have a lead that's insurmountable in that way, and i think that there are still some questions going into tuesday about whether that's the case. and that's why you've seen the sanders' campaign start to shift a little bit into a more delegate-focused strategy. you've seen him compete across the map, going into tuesday. even in states they know they're going to lose, like florida, for example. they've been both up on the air and they've also put their candidate into these states. north carolina, where we are right now, is another one, where they think that they might be able to do unexpectedly well. and that's all about cutting into that lead. now, the challenge, as you know, is that he needs to drive up these margins. so he doesn't need to just win states. he needs to win them significantly. and that's why you're seeing the clinton campaign focus so much on making sure that they cut their losses in caucus states that are coming up down the line. think idaho, for example. alaska, places where she got

burned last time, by barack obama. so, if they can protect that, they feel like they can stretch this out. but there's still no small amount of risk for the clinton campaign in that regard, steve. >> all right, kasie hunt in north carolina, thanks for that. and keep it here on msnbc for our town hall deouble header. it's minutes away. we'll start with the bernie sanders town hall beginning at 6:00 p.m. eastern, less than 20 minutes from now. and that will be followed immediately by the hillary clinton town hall. and chris matthews will be moderating that one. that will be at 7:00 p.m. eastern tonight, right here on msnbc. ahead in the ws, on this show, why ted cruz is celebrating a last place finish in the washington, d.c. republican vote. stay tuned. when you think about success, what does it look like? is it becoming a better professor by being a more adventurous student? is it one day giving your daughter the opportunity she deserves?

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evangelical protestants. and eight of them have already voted in the republican race. alabama, arkansas, georgia, kentucky, mississippi, tennessee, south carolina, all of those states going for donald trump. oklahoma, remember, did go for ted cruz. and missouri and north carolina, they are set to vote tomorrow. west virginia will hit the polls on may 10th. now, why does this matter? well, evangelical protestants were supposed to be ted cruz's bread and butter in this campaign. but as trump himself just said there, cruz has failed to take those states so far. we will see tomorrow if trump can keep that going. ♪ i love to take pictures that engage people. and to connect us with the wonderment of nature. the detail on this surface book is amazing.

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and time now for the ws. starting with a who. it's soon-to-be education secretary, john king. the senate is voting right now, as we speak, to confirm king as arne duncan's official replacement. that will be happening any minute now. and with duncan out, this leads agriculture tom vilsack as the only original obama cabinet member still on the job. today's what, it's the 2016 ncaa bracket. it is out and here's the political angle. the last two champions in open seat presidential election years, like this country, michigan state, back in 2000, that was before george w. bush won in november, and kansas in 2008, before barack obama's victory. and actually, you could add another one. 1988, the open seat before that. that was kansas, too. danny manning, larry brown, probation a year later. anyway, fill in your brackets

accordingly. now, the where. it is broadway on pennsylvania avenue. right now, the cast of the hit musical "hamilton" is at the white house, about to perform in front of a group of students. the when, it is town hall night on msnbc. what is the harm in another promo for that. 6:00 p.m. eastern, right after this show. chuck todd's town hall with bernie sanders. and right on the heels of that, a hillary clinton town hall at 7:00 with chris matthews. all of it right here on msnbc. so do not touch that remote. and now to today's why. well, ted cruz came in last place over the weekend in washington, d.c.'s republican contest, but on sunday, he reported those results to cheers at a rally in north carolina. for someone who rails against the washington cartel, as he calls it, a victory in d.c. would have been a tough thing for cruz to brag about. >> now, in d.c., there were four candidates. and i got to tell you, according to washington, d.c., i am dead last. you're an at&t small business expert?

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. the press is now calling to say, oh, but there's such violence. you know how many people have been hurt at our rallies? i think like basically none. other than, i guess, maybe somebody got hit once. people say, well, there's violence. there's no violence. these are lovefests. >> time for the lead, joining for the round table, msnbc senior editor beth, former

speechwriter tor president bill clinton, and michael waldman. and susan delpesio. we'll see if they shut it down for good. that conversation may not be over yet. beth, let's start tomorrow on the republican side. this is interesting to me. i look at the five races tomorrow and see a range of possibilities that goes from trump wins all five states and kasich and rubio are forced out of the race to maybe trump wins just one state. i could see anything between those two extremes. >> i would love to know your thought on what it's going to turn out to be. my personal thought is, trump fo goes on big. had e's owned the media cycle for the past week. nobody can get true, even on the distributed side. he's elevated bernie sanders. simply because trump has created it to be so. we know a lot of the publicity is bad. the entire country saw the guy

getting sucker punched. for trump to say, that's silly. his die-hard supporters are going to dig in even more. he goes on i suspect cruz goes on, kasich and rubio are basically on life support. >> there's two ways of looking at the anybody but trump, the stop trump movement. donald trump, we don't see him getting 50%, 65% in these contests. there is still argument there's a big faction of the party that will never be with trump. on the other side, though, they still haven't mobilized around anybody. he's still winning the most states. a lot of people stay the whole idea of the stop trump movement is based on what the republicans want their party to be rather than what it actually is. how do you look at it? >> i agree with all that. should kasich lose ohio tomorrow, it's game over. i think trump goes to the convention and has the right number of delegates.

it's going to be very hard to stop him. if kasich wins, and let's say cruz picks up one state, then we're going to a conten tested n investigation. what the republican party needs to do, those of the stop trump movement, need to start looking forward to july. the problem is, they've always come in two weeks before florida is not when you start a stop trump movement. you have to start preparing to what happens if there's a contested convention. could, for example, if rubio decides to get behind kasich, does that all of a sudden seem like a really plausible thing that republicans can get behind, start supporting it today, even though kasich won't get enough to get to 1237. that's a second ballot. >> we're seeing two things we haven't seep for decades in this country. one is what used to be the norm, which is conventions that were contested or open. might play out in an era of

twitter and 24-hour cable. there's a lot of voters that think anything other than whoever got the most votes in the primaries wins. a lot of voters think that's illegitimate. one question is, can the party -- and parties are important. it means something to have a political party, make the case that it's the right thing to do. >> i'm picturing a scene in cleveland where donald trump comes in there with 1,100 delegates. and some procedural maneuver pushes somebody else to the nomination the that's not going to be a calm scene. >> plus, there are a variety of rules that make it hard for someone who hasn't run in any of the primaries to step forward near the beginning. and ultimately, this kind of thing if it goes to that, is it goes to somebody who hasn't been on the scene at all. we see potentially a major new force coming and articulating itself in american politics, which is sort of the right-wing

populist force that you've seen in europe or in england. and you see it with trump. it's both different from conventional conservative republicans on economics, but much more racially focused, much more nativist, p more violent in its language. this could be the future, not just a blip. >> but steve, you hit on something really important. you said what happens if he gets to 1,100. supporters are different than the del gates. how did trump choose his delegates. a lot of them were chosen a long time ago. and they usually are somewhat around the party base. so in a state like california, let's say, maybe he didn't necessarily do the wisest way of choosing his delegates. maybe this ewere associated with the state party and things were changed on a second ballot. >> you're saying they may not have that much loyalty to donald trump. >> they may not, if they get to have more loyalty with the state party. >> that's sort of the mechanical loophole. but again, donald trump's not going to take that lying down.

>> no. and neither are his supporters of the what you're saying is completely true. the genie is out of the bottle here. whomever the establishment is anybody, if they come through and locks trump at the convention, and put somebody else in, if you think the people are going to say, oh, we lost and go on? >> trump's going to lose against anybody else anyway. >> but still, there's those out there, if you lose or not, they are a potent major force in politics right now. >> in 1972 with mcgovern or in 1964 with goldwater, there were the procedural rules fights that decided who the nominees were. lock, if trump in the eyes of his supporters is denied a legitimate nomination, he may or may not be able to get on the ballot as a third-party candidate. but he will raise a ruckus between now and then. >> i've got to cut this short.

i've been droeming of having this conversation about a real contested convention for years. unfortunately we're out of time this hour. but thank you for that. we'll be back with more. and msnbc's democratic doubleheader is straight ahead. stay tuned for hillary clinton's town hall at 7:00 eastern, and bernie sanders town hall with chuck todd starts right now. some call his michigan win stunning. even a major upset. >> i have a feeling that you want a political revolution. >> bernie sanders looks to pull off more surprises tomorrow, in what is shaping up to be another super tuesday. >> if there is a large voter turnout, we will win. >> but before those votes are cast, he makes one final pitch to ohio. >> this is a campaign of the people, by the people, and for the people. >> this is