with "mtp daily," tonight, i'll be on with the last word, as usual. "with all due respect" starts right now. i'm john helemann. >> i'm mark halperin. with all due respect for ted cruz and donald trump, save it for the convention, fellas. this is going to be the kathleen turner episode. trust me. we'll get to the trump/creuz stuff in a moment. latest numbers from the poll. our big findings, the two candidates who probably see the most good news in the survey are also the two candidates that are least likely at this point to become their party's nominees, that's bernie sanders and john kasich. on the democratic side, despite his delegate deficit, sanders has closed the gap with clinton, basically in a statistical tie

nationally and general match up, beating ted cruz and donald trump. but she loses 43 to 47. sanders beats, but unlike clinton, sanders actually beats kasich too. 46% to 44%. and yet, both sanders and kasich are getting pressured to drop out of the race. john, sanders and kasich regularly out on the stump say to voters, i win the head to heads, i'm the most electable, why isn't it breaking through? >> mainly because -- this episode will be a dream for you, because i'm going to speak as little as possible because my voice is gone. i'll say electable does not resonate that much with voters in the end. but in the end, what they care more about, can the people get things done, what are their valleys, ideology, positions on issues that voters care about. not about the abstract question of who is going to win in the fall. voters rightly see that as something that this is a 50/50

country. >> it does still beg the question of why clinton is doing worst than sanders, you know. i also wonder why kasich is doing so well. i wonder if it's because people know and like him, and he has a record in ohio, or is it simply because he is not cruz and trump. that's helping him. same with sanders, though. i wonder why sanders against kasich, you know, is doing better. i it's a strange thing. but i do think as we get down to it here, and particularly, if on the republican side, if kasich can fight to the convention, electability at the convention might matter. if trump hasn't improved his standing, if cruz hasn't, if kasich can get to the convention in a position to be the nominee, electability will matter to those voters. >> to the delegates and be able to refer to polls like that, you know, important. if bernie sanders closed the

pledged delegate gap against hillary clinton, it would be super delegates would have one reason to stay with someone and vote against someone who is a pledged, and do better than hillary clinton, pledge super delegates mide be more inclined to stick -- >> pretty good achievement for those two guys to be ahead the way they are. wait, there is more, in the same bloomberg poll, we asked them about a topic that has been part of this campaign, international trade. turns out, both republicans and democrats, not big fans. when asked if they think the u.s. should have more or fewer restrictions on import have had foreign goods, there was bipartisan agreement. 67% republicans said more restrictions. 66% of democrats said the same. john, it is rare in any polling question to find democrats and republicans thinking the same way. they do on this.

what are the general election implications of this bipartisan consensus on trade. >> likely whoever the republican nominee is, most likely donald trump, but anyone else is going to be the first republican general election candidate in a long time who is not a staunch free trader. on the other side, it means that hillary clinton who has moved to the left on trade, to cover her flank will stick to the positions. a lot of people have doubts in their heart that she is not a free trader too. you'll going to have more or less protectionist argument. never seen it before in our lifetime in politics. >> there are other republicans that are restrictionists on trade. trump is out of step with the elites of his party, things like a temporary ban of muslims. kasich and cruz are both free traders, kasich in a more consistent way. cruz is somewhat inconsistent. i think, you know, we've never had a general election with two

people, we might, if it's trump versus clinton, we'll have two people who question the current trade deals on the deal. >> or trump versus sanders. these battles for working class voters, a lot of the action will be, especially if trump is the nominee, hillary clinton will not be able to move an inch away from her newly hatched opposition to tpp and other matters. >> on the assumption as many republicans hopeful if trump is the no maniny, he'll start to mod late his positions on some issues, and be curious to see if trade is one of them, trump is right with the public on both parties on trade. if you're on twitter, you probably haven't been able to avoid cruz and trump. it has gotten even more personal. on the off chance you've missed what has happened in the past 24 hours. we're going to catch you up real

quick. >> super pac used a naked photo from a gq foet shot be careful or spill the beans on cruz's wife. cruz said it wasn't from him. if you attack heidi, you're more of a coward than i thought. lyin' ted cruz. oh, double snap. cruz went on tv and lifltted a line from the american president. trump is on it. lyin' ted cruz and lines from michael douglas, just another dishonest pop tissue shan. trump tweets make a america great again. trump retweets with a picture of the wives. cruz ready. donald, heidi is the love of my

life. mean thing about cruz. cruz called him a coward and said leave her alone. make america great again, again. some of that was from not the last 24 hours, but that brings us up-to-date, to date on this battle. who is winning? cruz/trump? >> lahard to say anyone is winng this ugly, pathetic, childish back and for the betweth. losing more, donald trump, because he has a history for not treating women well, and this plays into the stereotype. >> the fight between them, trump is winning, crowding out any chains ted cruz having a chance. i will say, as long as trump can keep cruz from having a single focus negative frame on him, i don't think ted cruz can stop donald trump. he needs one argument, and if he is arguing about their wives, that's not going to get him to be the nominee. >> donald trump should be looking toward the general

election, every time he does something like that, a ma. >> he is losing, hurting himself for the general, in the abstract, that may be true. but we don't know that. and people have predicted that donald trump is hurting himself. in general, he hasn't been. >> not a lot of women like this kind of stuff. they don't. time for an update, merrick garland. upping the pressure on republicans today to force a vote on the supreme court nominee, vice-president biden gave a speech at the george washington law center, calling on republican leaders to give president obama's pick a hearing. biden capitol hill gridlock over this issue, risking a genuine constitutional crisis. vice-president accused republicans of mischaracterizing a speech he gave in 1992 about

supreme court nominations made in a presidential election year. >> senate majority leader is my friend, mitch mcconnell and other republicans today have been quoting selectively from the remarks that i made in an attempt to justify refusing chief judge garland a fair hearing and a vote on the floor of the senate. they completely ignore the fact that at the time, i was speaking of the dangers of nominating an extreme candidate without proper senate consultation. they completely neglected to quote my unequivocal bottom line. so let me set the record straight, as they say. i said, and i quote, if the president consults and cooperates with the senate, or moderates his selections, then

his nominees may enjoy my support as did justice kennedy and justice sudor. end of quote. >> valeant effort, but did he do anything to alter this? >> that's how much he did to reset or alter the debate. the whole biden thing is a huge distraction. one argument republicans have made. the ultimate -- there are places where he can see the pressure to give garland a hearing is making some headway. this is not one of those moments, i don't think so. >> i continue to believe, people might get bored, chairman of the judiciary committee, grassley, if he is feeling pressure to do, he can force mcconnell to do it. i don't think this does anything to pressure grassley to do it.

they need a hearing, and grassley needs to feel it is a political imperative for him to hold a hearing. >> point out that although we love joe biden, the argument he made about what he said in the past was not compelling on its own. >> as we say in delaware, nice try. >> yeah, right. >> didn't quite work. coming up, what do wisconsin and new york have in common, the upcoming contests we're watching very closely. the look at the political calendar, coming up after this word from our sponsors. allergies distracting you?

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which means it's time to look at both parties to see where we stands. the democratic side, three

caucus states, caucusing this saturday, hawaiei, washington state, and then two weeks after that, on april 19th, new york, followed by a whole bunch of northeastern and midatlantic states, voting on april 26th, that includes connecticut, maryland, pennsylvania and rhode isla island. >> what's the first thing and most important thing is that one, alaska, two, hawaii, six contests in a row, the next six in a row are all states that bernie sanders can and in some cases should win, and that will, the question is by how much, and what it does in terms of the pledged delegates. hillary clinton is still formidable and daunting, if he rinse six in a row, april 26th, he'll have both, pick up some delegates and have a huge wave

of momentum in his back. >> he proved this week end, or tuesday rather, even though he did lose arizona, he proved he can win states, but win them big. so let's just look at this again. i think people assume he'll sweep on saturday. he'll win those three. >> yes. >> then wisconsin is huge. he'll win wisconsin -- wyoming caucuses. >> the two primaries. >> winning wisconsin, which some people in clinton world could well happen. if he comes into new york, having won the next five, and then beats her in her home state, which is not out of the question. >> not at all. >> if he does that, five in a row, two primaries, wisconsin and new york, then he goes on to the 26th, with five northeastern states, with cash on hand, big crowds, i'm not saying he is in the nominee, but if he does five in a row, wins five more in a row, 26th, ten in a row, that's not great for hillary clinton. >> i'll tell you something. >> changes the race. resets the race to some extent.

has a big pledged delegate lead, but the super delegates have to answer the question, how can you vote against the voters of your state. >> the clinton and sanders campaigns agree on, new york will be in play, it's been now a long time, ten years, since hillary clinton ran for the senate in this state. her connection to the voters is not as strong as you would think, a former u.s. senator from new york would be. >> super key, step by step, he's got it win wisconsin if he is going to put this back in momentumville. wisconsin, april 5th primary, colorado has republican caucuses on april 9th. the real action occurs the end of the month. new york, winner take all, april 19th. a week later, like with the democrats, voters go to the polls in connecticut, maryland, pennsylvania and rhode island.

what is key? >> we know there will be a donnybrook in wisconsin between all three candidates competing really hard. >> playing really hard for two weeks. not a must win for john kasich, but it's in the vicinity. kasich either needs to win or show strong, or the rationale for his continuing. >> he's got to be a human player in the state. >> right. and then you go to new york, which is again, very similar in some ways to the clinton/sanders race. this is the home state, two contestant primaries, donald trump and hillary clinton on the other. is he loved or hated in new york. he is both. that makes it not obvious that donald trump will win new york state. >> if trump wins wisconsin and new york, forget the caucuses in colorado. if he wins in new york, i think the race is over. there will be pressure for kasich to get and pressure for cruz to get out. if he does win wisconsin and new york, based on the democratgrap,

he'll sweep on the 26th. if he won wisconsin, new york and then say four out of the five on the 26th, everybody would be out of the race, endorsing him, turning their delegates over. the reality is, they want it to go to the last day in june, to make trump earn the majority, and so the question to me is not can he win those states. it's an open question. but if he wins the states, does he force them out of the race. not mathematically, but like a normal nominee, the de facto nominee, long before he has the majority. >> kasich matters so much, because if kasich can survive and continue to have a rationale through wisconsin and new york, you get to these states, connecticut, rhode island, i think in a competitive three way race, if is he at par with the other two, in terms of money and credibility, kasich could win a lot of those states in three way races. not inconceivable. i think trump versus cruz, trump

will. >> trump and kasich agree, cruz cannot compete in the northeast. we'll see who is right. up next, a deeper dive into the shaping into be a big battle ground, land of cheese and beer and bucks. >> beer. beer. >> after this. toenail fungus!? whaaat?!? fight it! with jublia. jublia is a prescription medicine... ...used to treat toenail fungus. use jublia as instructed by your doctor. jublia is workin' it! most common side effects include... ...ingrown toenail, application site redness,... ...itching, swelling, burning... ...or stinging, blisters, and pain. oh!! fight it! with jublia! now that's a red carpet moment! ask your doctor if jublia is right for you. visit our website for savings on larger size. [engines revving] you can't have a hero, if you don't have a villain. the world needs villains [tires screeching]

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new emerson poll out today, donald trump and ted cruz locked in a battle amongst wisconsin republicans. cruz 36% of badgers, basically tied with trump at 35%. john kasich trails at third, 19%. democratic side preferred hillary clinton over sanders, 50-44. here to talk us through his state that he knows well, wisconsin craig gilbert from the milwaukee journal, who joins us from the washington bureau. let's start with the republican race. you've written, pretty fascinating, if you look at the demographics, it should be a great trump state. why does he under perform there in your polling, in this poll, as compared to where he has done in other states? >> well, you know, his negatives have been really high in wisconsin compared to other places. i think part of it may be

cultural. he hasn't done great in the rest of the upper midwest. he is obviously kind of a hard personality for some people to take. he is also, kind ever a unique situation in southeastern wisconsin, which is the reddest, outside milwaukee, and talk radio, conservative talk radio, kind of lined up against donald trump that you don't see nationally, you don't see in other parts of the country. very influential. that happens to be the part of wisconsin where he is doing the worst with republican voters. >> what are those local hosts saying about him? what have they seized on and positive about ted cruz? >> pretty much everything. from his personality, his background, his history, his discourse, to certainly they make ideological argument, he is not a real conservative. there is a lot of sort of strategic and tactical arguments

being made. kasich is making the argument he is electable. trump is maki-- the other argum cruz is who you have to vote for to stop trump. >> do you think kasich is wise to play this, appear a three way? >> i think it's tough. i would say he has a shot in some of the congressional districts, like the democratic district in milwaukee and the democratic around madison, where republicans are more moderate. he has got a shot i think it's difficult for him to win the state outright. >> so i mean, at this point, fig picking up a few delegates, he does need wins, but you don't see that? >> there is a lot of crazy stuff going on in the state. but i think he squeezed on both sides. trump does well with rural voters, and kind of blue collar voters, and cruz is making a big play for the more conservative sort of suburban vote in

southeastern wisconsin. he is getting squeezed on both sides. >> okay, let me move to the democrats quickly. hillary clinton, this poll, emerson poll has her leading by a little bit. it seems demographically, open event, anybody can vote in either primary, it seems it could be a very good state for sanders. >> it ought to be. when you think about the state sort of history of voting, when you think about the fact that it's a white state, almost 85 or 90% of the democratic vote will be white on april 5th, and then the open primary is huge. because obviously sanders has been doing much better in other states, and in the wisconsin polling with independent voters than he is doing with partisan democrats. she is competitive and do well in milwaukee. sanders will do well in madison. a battle for the rest of the state. but when you compare wisconsin to other states that have already voted, it's a much friendlier place than the march states.

>> what is the economy like there? how much negative -- how much will sanders ben frit from tefi economy. >> economic distress in certain parts of the state, but also benefit from political distress. democrats are very angry and frustrated group. out of power, powerless under scott walker now since 2011. a lot of bad things from their point of view have happened. in that climate, you can see bernie sanders' message resonating. >> some states endorsements matter more. you have scott walker suggesting he'll be for ted cruz. tammy baldwin leading democratic in the state for hillary clinton. do those endorsements or any others matter in the state? >> i don't know that on the republican side, do they matter more than talk radio. on the democratic side, you know, sanders doesn't really have the endorsements, but i don't know if that matters to

his voters. the republicans, it's interesting, it's the state of scott walker and reince priebus, and craoss ways with donald trup in one way or another. when we come back, andrea mitchell joins us. we'll talk about the big week in foreign policy, right after this. (patrick 1) what's it like to be the boss of you? (patrick 2) pretty great. (patrick 1) how about a 10% raise? (patrick 2) how about 20? (patrick 1) how about done? (patrick 2) that's the kind of control i like... ...and that's what they give me at national car rental. i can choose any car in the aisle i want- without having to ask anyone. who better to be the boss of you...

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we would be willing to stand in a crowded rope line in the snow for hours just ask one question of our next guest. instead, somehow we tricked her into coming into our studio to

talk about foreign policy and foreign policy politics, two topics nobody knows better. nbc news foreign affairs correspondent and she just got back from cuba where she was covering president obama's trip. the great andrea mitchell. >> i would come here any day to have that introduction. >> it looks like donald trump and hillary clinton will going to be the nominees of their respective parties. in this week, a big foreign policy stuff, some expected some unexpected. talk about the way in which this provided a kind of preview of what a general election between those two might be like. >> if it's ted cruz, it's the same contrast, really. what you have is donald trump and ted cruz seizing on the events in brussels. renewing the muslim ban. talking, you know, ted cruz talking about surveillance of muslim neighborhoods. trump talking about pulling back from nato, pulling back from european alliances. at the same time, you have

hillary clinton at stanford giving a very traditionally centrist, thoughtful, quote-unquote, foreign policy speech about our need to help our allies, need to help europe, but europe needs to do more itself, with specific examples about how we get flight manifests now since those, you know, since paris actually. we get better flight manifests with regard to isis and all of the threats and migration crisis. and the european countries, the european unions, 28 countries, cannot even share intelligence or a flight manifest with each other. those were her pushes. and also of course, she's going after cruz and trump, but particularly, donald trump. >> if you go up to 30,000 feet and look at hillary clinton as secretary of state and now as a presidential candidate, are there doctrine of what clinton policy would be like as compared to the president. >> sure, more interventionist.

she would have taken action in syria if she had the moment in 2013, if she had been secretary, with the red line, she would have been pushing as hard as john kerry was pushing. >> is that -- that's a specific case. but can you take from that specific instance a doctrine, in other words, more intervention nist in what kind of case or just in general. >> look at libya. in fact, that was really a policy that has her fingerprints on it. i'm talking about benghazi and the stuff that happened. i'm talking about the initial decision to go into libya, to say that it was in our national interest to do that, with our allies. at the time, we were hearing cries that they were leading from behind, because there were french and british planes up there. >> i want to ask you specifically about donald trump. we interviewed trump on tuesday. he said all of the following things. he said he agreed with ted cruz

about sending police patrols into muslim america. he thought nato might be obsolete. he wouldn't take off the table using nuclear weapons against isis and a foreign policy was unpredictability. people should not know what the president will do next, that's a good thing in world affairs, according to donald trump. his image as a strong man has played to his advantage in the republican nomination fight. can it in a general election? >> here's the deal. according to all the polling, all the exit polling, errorism, after san bernardino was the number one issue among republican primary voters and republican leaders. and by i think 2/1, jobs was the democratic voters. that was the december "wall street journal" poll. terrorism is a potent issue.

a wedge issue now with republican voters. it depends on what is happening in the fall. if they are the nominees of the party. i really think that if there is some action like sw an bernardi at home or brussels, in the weeks before the election, it really plays to the strong man imagin image, and i think it hurts hillary clinton. she has some vulnerabilities on foreign policy, as much as she understands the connections and has all of the language and has a deep knowledge of it, she can be criticized for libya now, for the middle east, for not doing enough in the middle east, going only one to iraq. she really was hands off. that was joe biden's account. one saturday we went to iraq for a half a day really. that's the only time she was in iraq. so whatever is failing in afghanistan or iraq can be laid

to her feet as much as to barack obama's feet, politically. i'm not saying it's fair, i'm just saying that's what the republican candidate would do. >> amongst the many things you cover hillary clinton. you hear her a lot when i hear her, she doesn't talk very much about her record as secretary of state. it's not a centerpiece of this campaign. if it's trump versus clinton, will that change? >> yes. >> i was america's chief diplomat, i'm more qualified than this businessman reality show star. >> she has done two national security speeches in two days. >> right. >> that's what she talked about in miami when we were all there last week, when she was celebrating her victory in florida. she talked about donald trump and, you know, talking tough is not smart, you know. going after muslims is not smart. this doesn't show strength. it shows that you're inexperienced. she was going after them on those issues. >> if it is clinton versus

trump, she will like she has in the last week or so, elevate her resume and positions on national security as part of the contrast, as compared to other issues. >> absolutely. and try to show the contrast, i'm the grown-up in the room. i have the experience, you can't trust him because he had so erratic. it plays to her strengths. she is not the best retail candidate. she would be the first one to say it. unlike my husband, and unlike barack obama, that's not what i do well. >> right. >> i am the serious, studious person that knows her stuff. >> criticized for the way he behaved in cuba, not just going to the baseball game, but with the sunglasses and espn interview and doing the wave, all that stuff. then he gos to south america, and you got the tango thing, right. even among a lot of democrats, and not just totally establishment democrats, a lot of people are like look, the optics are really terrible. my question about that is, is

that the kind of thing that either now or soon or eventually, that hillary clinton will find herself criticizing president obama for as she tries to get a little distance from him to make herself less vulnerable from attacks from donald trump. >> i don't think she'll criticize on something that the optics, the photo op. i think she has and already has on the trade deals, she has separated herself completely, even though she supported him. she'll find other issues, economic issues which are the issues that white male voters care about, because now she has got to worry about possible crossover votes. if you're running guess donald trump, his appeal could be in ohio, michigan, and even pennsylvania. and that's, you know, that's where she would be vulnerable against donald trump. you know, knowing i was coming over here, i checked again with the white house in argentina, and they said there is no one in the white house, and certainly

not the president, who is second-guessing this. as much as a lot of us, even watching the baseball game, look, it was a huge hit there. i mean, raul castro went with them to the airport, saw them off. i mean, it was -- and it was winfield, and derek jeter, and joe tory, jackie robinson played there in 1947. i am a crazy baseball fan. i loved watching him, but i thought there is a way to do it without the sunglasses and chewing gum, you know, slapping everybody on the back. but that's the crowd, just ate it up. and similarly, they said this is a new argentina leader, we're planting the flag in north america, ignored it too long. c. c.i.a.'s bad deeds, and we're

reeli really making friends. >> it takes a tango. >> and the tango. i still want to know whether he really practiced that, and knew it was coming. they said he did not. >> thanks, andrea. come back any time. soon, soon, soon. up next, what is like to have your court nomination blocked by the united states senate. one american's experience for more than ten years ago, next. if you're watching us in washington, d.c., you can listen to us on the radio/radio. what knee pain? what sore elbow? what joint pain? advil liqui-gels are so fast, they make pain a distant memory nothing works faster stronger or longer than advil liqui-gels the world's #1 choice what pain? advil. in new york state, we believe tomorrow starts today.

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back in 2003, after partisan gridloc gridlo gridlock d.c. court of appeals, withdrew his name. yesterday, he is estreda spoke with al hunt, who faces similar opposition right now. >> i don't think anybody has doubt about judge garland's qualifications. i think he is well thought of on both sides of the aisle. everybody is pretty much unanimous by the experience, intelligence, background, he is a very suitable person for the supreme court. the argument about the vacancy really is en tlitirely politica. it is whether they are willing to accept somebody who may be a centrist democratic, instead of

basically spinning the wheel on the election, in the hope that they can get somebody who is qualified to be sure, but more on the right of center side. >> let me ask you this. what considerations are legit here? you also supported elana kagan while noting your strong differences on some issues. in ideology ever a legitimate factor in considering, obviously consider competence, but what else? >> entirely up to the senate. one of the aspects of these arguments, which we tend to have every few years is that both parties report to principle and both purport to give lip service to the supremacy of -- they're not willing to accept people from the other party. we saw this when judge alito was up in 2005. he is as qualified as judge

garland is today. he there were 25 democrats who voted not to give hmmim a vote. ascertain that the fight here is political. everybody is appealing to the political base of their respective parties. that's appropriate. but i think even within the political considerations, there are a lot of people in this country who go to work everyday, tell their children that marriage matters in this country, and they want to strife for a saturday who have merit. >> would you acknowledge that if he should be confirmed, that judge garland would move the court to the center or center left, and might replace your old boss justice kennedy oh to the swing vote. >> perhaps. explored at a hearing. it is very difficult to say things in a general way, because even justice scalia, who was viewed as somebody on the right of the court, was one of the

leading lights of a revolution in constitutional law that gave us a lot of criminal constitutional favorable to defendants. people don't focus or don't know it, but he was on the side of confrontational cases, due process cases, in 4th amendment cases, and. >> flight running. >> also, on the 1st amendment. and so he was somebody who was distinkly liberal. people with different philosophies, they try to come to judge on the merits. >> affirmative action, and voting rights, executive authority, that certainly the court would be more likely to be sympathetic to the -- to what be termed liberal with judge

garland than scalia. >> i probably would not go down the road of giving you examples, but i think justice scalia was such a unique figure in the court, that i could probably name, i won't, but i probably could name several republican appointees to federal courts of appeals who were appointed by george w. bush, if appointed by president obama also could be said to move, you know, the court to the left. >> right. >> you have to take each with the seats, and really not ask how are my issues going to turn out on the basis of that appointment. but if this -- whether this is a forthright person, he is a moderate person. i don't expect him to get on the supreme court and take a hatchet to relatively recent case law. these things again, can be explored at a hearing, but you know, these are things we should

ask the nominees. we want them to be faithful to case law and precedent, but we cannot assume a priority that they will come in with a wrecking ball. i may not agree with all of them all the time. but the popular conceptions that our judges are essentially politicians in robes is misguided. and that we do little to enhance the legitimacy of our justice by contributing to it by seeing in left/right terms. >> miguel, let me ask you this. will judge garland be on the supreme court at the en of the year or not. >> i think so. >> you do. >> i do. >> do you think that will happen in a lame duck session, because republicans have got themselves on a limb before the election? >> perhaps. i think once we see how the election is shaping up, and whether the republican party believes it has a candidate that is likely to win in november, you may see change in the attitude of some of the republicans in the senate. if it's really clear that we're

going to have a disputed convention, and that the opposition to even considering a nominee could affect the senate, it may be the political c calcolous, they're going to are persuade their voters that it is good policy. >> thanks to al hunt and miguel estrada. and an early morning mode. and a partly sunny mode. and an outside... to clear inside mode. transitions signature adaptive lenses now have chromea7 technology... making them more responsive than ever to changing light. so life can look more vivid & vibrant. why settle for a lens with just one mode? experience life well lit®. upgrade your lenses to transitions® signature™.

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numbers block. we're going to the box office. with an seltzer, she is our movie critic. she joins us from johnston, iowa. ann, thank you for lending your

key eye. we heard you've got a review of trump-topia, new bloomberg national poll. what does trump-topia refer to? >> well, what it tells us is we took a look at the poll who had already participated in the nominating contest, and the republican side, because we're in the thick of it and people who expect to in the future. well, what happens when we sort of divide those up. what can it tell us about the future. our own little crystal ball. what you see for donald trump is not only has he won the plurality from support from people who have voted, it gets bigger who expect to vote in the future. so anybody looking for trump to fade, we have no data that would suggest that's going to happen any time soon. >> his future looks brighter than even his past. all right, ann, you saw the movie dead poll, hillary clinton when it comes to a specific njon

kasich, what specific challenges that she faces kasich in the general? >> yeah, well, you know, we did general election matchups. these are people likely to vote in november. who are they supporting in the case, it's hillary clinton-donald trump. hillary clinton wins. hillary clinton versus ted cruz, hillary clinton wins. oh, hillary clinton/john kasich, john kasich wins. so you keep hearing him say people, you know, i'm the only one who can beat hillary clinton. and these numbers bear that out. we went looking for, well, how did he do that? those are the numbers you're seeing on your chart. he wins majorities, and in some case, substantial majorities, with some key groups. he beats her with married parents, he beats her with whites, among catholics, and among men. so has put together a broad spectrum of constituencies that you need in you're going to beat

hillary clinton if she is the nominee on her side. >> ann, finally one more blockbuster gives us more insight, it's called clinton has fallen, plot is confusing, so walk us through it, without any spoilers. >> it is. okay, well, this is about party stickiness. so what we did is to look at the people in the sanders, let's start with kasich matchup and seau ka say say okay, i vote for bernie sanders, 19% of those sanders supporters defect to john kasich. so same situation with cruz. they voted for bernie sanders, while 11% go to cruz. smallest number, smallest number of deif he can tofectdefectors. unity, something alike between donald trump and bernie sanders, and in fact, our data says the opposite. that bernie sanders supporters

are least likely to defect to donald trump in the case that their guy, bernie sanders, does not turn out to be the nominee. >> again, just 15 seconds left, a 1/5 of people, they would vote for kasich over clinton, 1/5. >> that's a big number. and the thing is, bernie sanders would have to win the nomination. i'm sorry. that john kasich would have to win the nomination, and that is step one. >> ann, thanks so much. i really appreciate. i might go to the film cinema with you. we'll be right back with who won the day. [tires screeching] and villains need cars. ♪ whfight back fastts tums smoothies starts dissolving the instant it touches your tongue and neutralizes stomach acid at the source tum, tum, tum, tum smoothies! only from tums

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the more at that time words of john mclaughlin, who won the day? >> sadly, the same guy who won yesterday. yesterday, he took fight dog, joe g and ken howard, gary shandling, the grim reaper. >> we would be remiss to take a moment to remember the more

dignified way, the great gary shandling, he died today at the age of 66. pioneer and star of the great "gary shandling show." he'll be missed. thanks for watching, sayonara. coming up, "hardball" with chris matthews. nuclear, let's play "hardball." good evening, i'm chris matthews in washington. mark today, march 24th is the day the republican presidential fight went nuclear. first, literally, john helemann asked donald trump, trump refused to roll it out. then on the domestic front, donald trump escalated his fight with ted cruz, retweeting an unflattering photograph of heidi cruz be