good evening. i'm chuck todd here in new york. welcome to msnbc's special coverage of wisconsin primary night. we are, of course, in election central here at nbc and msnbc. we have seen an epic battle for the badger state. polls close in just a few hours. get ready for a big night, because it all comes down to this. >> i'm up 14 points on hillary in wisconsin and i'm going to lose in wisconsin, okay? this is really unbelievable. >> how do you think we're going to do in wisconsin? >> great! >> i mean, i think we're going to do really well. i hope so. >> i want to ask every one of you to come out on tuesday and

vote for me, ten times. >> if i tell you i'll fight for you, i'll stand for you, i'll work for you, that's exactly what i'll do. if you will give me the chance. >> we are hoping here in wisconsin, there will be a record-breaking turnout. if people come out to vote in large numbers, i think we're going to do very, very well. and that's what we're hoping for. >> so here's why wisconsin matters. it's a state where the front-runners are the underdogs, which means we could see some big swings in momentum after tonight. it's also stand-alone. nothing before, a couple weeks before, nothing really a couple weeks after. so can cruz and the stop-trump forces notch the win? they're readying for a war at the cleveland convention, but they first have to keep trump off the pace in his delegate hunt starting tonight. and if trump pulls off the upset, watch out. meanwhile, on the left, can sanders put up a big enough win to put a dent in clinton's delegate lead?

we're going to find this out. this is not only a must-win for sanders, but a must big-win for him. and we are just moments away from our very first look at early exit polls out of wisconsin. we'll get a glimpse, at least, of the mood and makeup of the electorate. it does matter. and this is one of those states, independents can vote in either primary, same-day voter registration. there's all sorts of interesting ways that we need the exit polls to understand who voted, where they voted, and why they voted. this is not your ordinary midwestern state. current momentum doesn't explain why cruz and sanders are ahead in the badger state. here's what does. there's perhaps no other state in the country where the conservative and progressive movements are so well organized. it's a turbo charged democratic base on the left. just look back at their dramatic, if ultimately unsuccessful recall effort against governor scott walker in 2012. and also look at those huge crowds sanders has been drawing there, frankly, for months. he's done stops off and on in wisconsin to get big crowds.

which brings us back to tonight's big prize, as it stands right now. trump needs 56% of the remaining delegates to clinch the nomination. if cruz can run the table tonight, that number goes up to 59% for trump. basically a near-impossible margin for him if he wants to get to cleveland without having to worry about a second ballot. that's why the margin matters tonight. on the left, clinton needs just 34% of remaining delegates to win the nomination. delegates are awarded proportionately for democrats tonight. so sanders needs a big double-digit win, if he wants to win enough delegates to actually start cutting into her lead. sanders has significantly outspent clinton in wisconsin, and the antianti-group trump gr have significantly outspent trump. so do those tv ad dollars matter at all? let's hit the trail with our reporters in the trenches with the candidates. gabe gutierrez with the trump campaign, hallie jackson with team cruz, kristen welker following the clinton camp and

kasie hunt with sanders. and i'll talk to tom brokaw in a moment, who has covered just a few elections every now and again. we'll begin with the republican front-runner. donald trump. he's coming off his worst week. he says he's had worse weeks, but it's been a pretty bad one. and he could lose bad tonight if cruz ends up winning like the polls say he might. and there are reports of infighting and chaos. our own chris jansing spoke with trump this morning about the state of his campaign. here it is. >> i want to give you a chance to answer these reports that there's a lot of infighting in your campaign, that it's in a state of disarray. >> i haven't heard those reports. we have a great campaign, i'm number one by a lot. i have not heard anything about infighting. i don't know where you hear it. >> it's been reported. and there are people within your campaign that are suggesting -- >> i doubt that. >> reporter: you feel confident your campaign is all working together. none of the people who have been brought in -- >> let me ask you, are we number one? >> trump is also facing criticism again from president obama. he slammed trump's new proposal

to pressure mexico to pay for the infamous wall along the sorin border, which trump wants to do by threatening to cut billions of dollars in payments that are called remittances, that immigrants send home to their country. here's the president on the new trump plan. >> the notion that we're going to track every western union, you know, bit of money that's being sent to mexico, you know, good luck with that. this is just one more example of something that is not thought through and is primarily put forward for political consumption. >> let's check in with gabe gutierrez in milwaukee with the trump campaign. and gabe, i have to say, there is a pattern here with trump, when he's in a hole, when he's got a political problem, see if he can reignite the immigration fires. that's what today's proposal leak feels like to me. >> reporter: yeah, that's right, chuck. nbc also confirming that we're

with a source within the campaign that the trump campaign might shift gears over the next coming weeks and focus more on policy speeches rather than their typical rallies that they typically have. but, yes, you're right. this policy proposal on how to pay for that wall got a lot of attention today, especially from president obama. president obama saying that trump's comments are damaging the u.s. with foreign leaders and that he gets questions constantly about, quote, some of the wackier suggestions coming from the republican presidential fight for the nomination. now, he called trump's plan impractical and with huge implications. he said that it could damage mexico's economy, and therefore, send more immigrants back to the united states. and press secretary josh earnest also saying that trump's comments and the fight for the republican presidential nomination have come up in meetings with heads of state and sidetracked some of those meetings. as you mentioned, trump also is fighting allegations of in-fighting within his campaign. sources telling nbc's katy tur

that some of his campaign, that they're fighting to diminish the power of campaign manager, cory lewandowski, but as you heard, the interview with nbc's chris jansing, trump denying that. he is also predicting victory here in wisconsin, publicly, although privately, some in his staff are downplaying expectations. trump also looking ahead to new york, where he might have more favorable territory. he also has a campaign rally scheduled there for tomorrow on long island. chuck? >> all right. gabe, thanks very much. the fact that trump is spending so much time in wisconsin yesterday and today, though, tells you how much he knows the result tonight matters a lot for his campaign. gabe, thanks very much. let's stay in milwaukee. send it over to hallie jackson with the cruz campaign. they obviously have big expectations now tonight. >> yeah. >> do they think they can win them all? do they think they can pull off a delegate sweep tonight? >> reporter: so they're talking double-digit win, chuck. the delegate question is an important one, because if they can get a delegate shutout, if they can keep trump to zero, obviously, that plays into the

momentum message that they're trying to carry on, as this race moves east to the next six states where trump frankly looks stronger. places like new york, connecticut, delaware, as you've been talking about. cruz himself actually addressed some of that earlier today on charlie sykes' radio show. you know charlie sykes, you know how important he has been to the stop-trump movement around milwaukee. here's what cruz had to say. >> i think the entire country is looking to wisconsin. wisconsin has a national platform and megaphone. and if we end up with a win tonight, it is going to have national repercussions, not just for the 42 delegates at stake here in wisconsin, but i believe it is going to powerfully impact the states to come. >> two key ways this is different tonight, chuck, than it's been before for ted cruz. number one, a more moderate conservative base. if cruz can win here, he's able to make the argument he can win elsewhere. number two, an open primary. let's talk about turnout. as you know, there are reports that it could be very high.

the cruz campaign aide is telling me that, hey, high turnout could be a lot of democrats showing up to vote for donald trump. that's something they're keeping an eye on as we start to get some of the exit polling in and wait for some of those results. >> i also expect high turnout because wisconsin residents believe in elections. so they usually are on the higher side. >> reporter: engaged. >> hallie, thanks very much. the clinton campaign isn't expecting a win tonight. and they're not there tonight. that tells you something. they've spent the last few days campaigning in new york. in fact, clinton held a rally today in brooklyn. and that's where we find kristen welker. so, kristen, no big rally planned for tonight. you noted that. although i have a feeling, if somehow things went really, really well, and they pulled a shocker, they would find a way to get secretary clinton in front of a camera. >> reporter: i have that same exact feeling, chuck. i have indications if she were to pull off a win tonight, we would see her. but as of right now, the plan is

she's going to attend a fund-raiser. her campaign continues to downplay their expectations. i've been talking to some of their top officials who say they could lose by double digits. that's, of course, in part if they lose by five or six points, they can paint that as somewhat of a victory. bottom line, they are eager to turn the page. and new york is critical. this is her adopted home state, this is where she served as senator for two terms. a loss here would be absolutely devastating. so she's determined to win new york. so she is here, former president clinton's here. and we're getting a little glimpse of her strategy. she's clearly rallying minority voters, focusing on the city and focusing on upstate new york, some delegates to pick up there, and hitting senator sanders. take a listen to what she had to say just moments ago. >> i'm not promising free, free college. and i'll tell you why. because if you read the fine print, free college in the plan my esteemed colleague has put

forward requires that governors, including republican governor, chip in about a third. i don't have a lot of confidence in that. >> reporter: and of course, chuck, the reality, she still has a pretty significant delegate lead. so senator sanders has to not only win, win big tonight. >> thanks very much, kristen welker. let's head to -- ready for this -- wyoming, because that's where the sanders' campaign is about to hold a rally as they await tonight's returns from wisconsin. we're going to find kasie hunt in the great state of wyoming. kasie, we know why they're in wyoming. they're hunting every delegate they possibly can. but i am curious to see how the sanders' campaign is handling what is not the best reviews for a long sit-down editorial board meeting that they had with the new yo"new york daily news." what do you know, kasie? >> there were a series of issues, both related to the

things that were in his wheelhouse, financial reform, for example, but also a little farther outside. foreign policy, where he seemed very reluctant to get into the specifics. saying, i don't know how, for example, israel is wrong on settlements or how he would adjust or support or not support settlement policy. many other things related to the israelis and palestinians seemed to raise some eyebrows. he also said that the big banks could be broken up. socially by fiat, from the administration. he insisted, no, i wouldn't be a dictator, but the administration would have the authority to potentially break up jpmorgan chase, potentially under dodd/frank. but he wouldn't go into details. i asked his wife, jane sanders, a little bit about it. she said she didn't feel that way. she defended him. she says he does know what he needs to know on foreign policy. there was also one item in that interview, he said, that you use a token to get on the new york city subway, which as many people know who travel on the

new york city subway, is no longer the case. >> you can buy little charm bracelets. >> reporter: he said he just forgot. >> i believe you can buy necklaces with tokens on them and things like that. >> reporter: you can, chuck. and if i could just add real quickly. one thing -- one interesting thing jane sanders just said to me in a lengthy interview we did, is that brrpds brrnds never felt as though this was a cause campaign. so as we look ahead to wisconsin, new york, going on forward, she -- she said that they had deep discussions about this. she said she was the person who said, you know, i only want you to do this if you can actually win it. and she said, absolutely not was this ever something that -- we could have gone and started a foundation if that's what we wanted to do. this is really about winning the democratic nomination. a little perspective there. >> no doubt trying to beat back this growing perception this isn't the initial reason he got in and a way to reexplain what

happened in '15 versus '16. casie kacey hunt, thanks. nbc predicts that john kerry is the winner in wisconsin. >> on this primary night in the midwest, as expected senator bob dole has taken another giant step towards winning the nomination. he swept all four primaries held today, winning ohio, illinois, michigan, and wisconsin. >> nbc news projects that dukakis has won the wisconsin primary with an impressive margin over the reverend jesse jackson. >> but we've got to go back a little bit further. tom brokaw interviewed an upstart new york real estate developer way back in 1980 and was interviewing him and asking him about his ambitions in life. take a listen. >> mr. trump, what's left in your life? you're 33 years old, you're worth all this money. you said you didn't say you want to be worth $1 billion. >> no, with i really don't.

i want to keep active and be interested in what i do, and that's all that's concerned in life. i want to enjoy my life. >> how about that. a lot of hair. he was probably younger there than his two sons and his daughter are now. >> i think that's right. he had -- by the way, he had just built the trump tower. and that had caused some controversy. a very young man, new to the manhattan real estate, although his family is well known -- >> sort of bullied his way into the manhattan real estate world? >> a big take on his part, even though he had gotten an estate from his father, but he had taken down bas relief, the face of the old had some artistically important things and he just shattered them and sent them off somewhere. i talked about that with him earlier, he said, it was into specify to try to reinforce so he got rid of them. >> there's a reason we wanted to

play that clip. one thing he's been really good at over his career is reinventireinvent ing things. one thing we have not seen him be able to do as a candidate is reinvent himself. as a candidate, we have not seen this growth. >> he never has had the kpamgs he gets as a candidate. and at the beginning of it, what's quite astonishing, i talked about this. what he got away with for so long, saying things like thousands of muslims were celebrating the fall of the tower, of the world tray center, we're going to ban all muslims. and now it's starting to come unravelled a little bit, because you can only get into policy by winging it for so long. and he's been winging it for a long time. >> so he's got a -- look, this is a -- even successful presidents, people that get elected president have their near-death experience. or an actual political death, we'll see. but we are approaching the most

precarious moment in the trump campaign. there's no doubt these next ten days, if tonight goes as badly as he fears, what do you expect him to do? we know what he should do, but what do you expect trump to do? the trump you know, the trump you first met in 1980, what do you expect him -- >> given all that, i never know what he's going to do, quite honestly. my concern is that he'll lash out, and i say that a as concern, because i think it will make what's going on right now even more unappetizing to a lot of people out there. and i hope that this campaign is now moving from the big eight to the final four, so to speak. and we can get down to a lot of issues and start talking about what this country will stand for, what our place in the world is. it's worth remembering that we've gotten in trouble in the last week or so. because he was forced to talk about issues. chris talked to him about abortion. what he didn't quite know what he was talking about, said, we

ought to punish the women. that's when it began to unravel for him. and that was a new development in the trump camp. >> let's quickly shift -- a lot of times, we're always talking about trump. if trump didn't exist, we would be talking about, why didn't hillary clinton shake bernie sanders? this would be the most dominant story in american politics. the rise of bernie sanders. what's going on in the democratic party. and in a world, donald trump didn't exist. >> what that says is we can't remove donald trump from it, because cruz in his own way plays to the same theme song that trump does. the country is anger and i want to take care of your anger. >> he decided to play within a certain set of rules. and trump didn't. >> in the case of hillary and bernie sanders, i think it's one more demonstration about how ticked off the country is, quite honestly. because almost none of his policies, his big policies, hold up to the examinations -- >> but his voters sort of know it. they're looking for something bigger. they want a little dream. they're sort of tired of what they've been seeing.

>> i think what they want is they want a piece of the action. and they say, the banks get whatever they want. they get bailed out. nothing happens to them. bernie sanders is going to say, i can go to college for free. and there was an earlier report that he didn't have much of a foreign policy. that's a big issue in my judgment. he doesn't know what he's going to do in the middle east. and we've got to start getting to that before we make decisions about people in america. >> especially with the new york primary coming, as well. first time since '88 that the new york primary will be relevant. >> that was jesse jackson and al gore got in trouble in '88. >> he did. >> new york. >> jesse jackson said a phrase, to this day, that he has not lived down. anyway, tom brokaw, always good to see you, sir. i think we'll see you more tonight. that's my guess. don't move, though. exit polls are coming. our first dive into the numbers are coming out of wisconsin. my man, steve kornacki will be joining me, and later, trump, cruz, and kasich and the road

ahead and whether an open convention is now inevitable.

(music plays from one way or another )♪♪ ♪ i'm gonna find y♪ i'm gonna getcha ♪ ♪ getcha getcha getcha ♪ one way or another ♪ ♪ i'm gonna win ya ♪ i'm gonna getcha ♪ ♪ getcha getcha getcha ♪ one way or another ♪ ♪ i'm gonna see ya ♪ (inhales cigarette)

we are getting our very first look at the exits coming out of wisconsin tonight. and according to very early nbc news exit poll results, just 32% of those voting in today's republican primary say they are angry with washington. another 53% call themselves dissatisfied. and just over 1 in 10 feel either satisfied or enthusiastic. for perspective, these are similar numbers from republican primary voters that we saw in michigan, illinois, and ohio. they all said they feel a sense of anger about the government, a third of them. up next, we'll bring you even more of the exit poll results, at least the ones that we feel like we can show you before polls close. a full analysis, coming up. stay tuned.

voting is ongoing in wisconsin, but we have our first

round of admexit polls, voters showed up for breakfast or lunch to vote. to shed light on this early data, steve kornacki is at the big board. we know the folks on their way home from work can alter what our exit poll looks like. that said, we have a good clue of what's going on here. it's a decent amount of interviews. we've done over 1,000 on both sides of the aisle. what do we know? >> first look at it, and we'll mainly tell you about the composition of the electorate, rather than exactly what these numbers are saying in terms of who's voting for who. also, a very interesting question we asked voters. i'll get t it in just a second. start with this. what does the republican electorate look like in wisconsin today? 31% calling themselves very conservative. 43, somewhat. 24, moderate. i'd call this sort of a midwestern mix of ideology. this is virtually identical to what we saw in ohio. remember, cruz has been doing his best with very conservative voters. he has struggled mightily with

moderate voters. we'll see when the results start to come in, if that changes at all. and also we also look at white evangelicals, what share are they making up? if you average all the states that have gone before tonight, more than 50% of the republican voters have identified themselves as white evangelicals. it's only 38% tonight in wisconsin, at least according to the data we're getting right now, also the college, non-college divide. remember, donald trump has done a lot better with voters who do not have college degrees. so, 54% in the non-college category, on the republican side here in wisconsin. here's the really interesting question we asked, though. if there's an open convention, if nobody has a majority of delegates, this is a big question of debate right now in the republican side. if nobody has a majority of delegates at the end of this process and you have this open convention, well, what should that convention do? should they just give it to the candidate who comes in with the most votes, even if that candidate doesn't have a majority? 56% of wisconsin republicans say, yeah, do that. give it to the candidate who gets the most votes, even if

it's not a majority. and 52% say, have a truly wide-open convention where they can choose anybody. that's a pro-trump argument. and not surprisingly, 83% of trump voters are saying, it should go to the candidate with the most votes. but 42% of other voters tonight, mainly kasich and cruz voters, saying the same thing. >> interesting, there. we'll see if this -- as the more people learn about the process, whether that -- those numbers will change. steve kornacki, thanks very much. we'll see you a lot over the next few hours. and we'll have more exit poll data throughout the hour. still ahead, former wisconsin governor and kasich supporter, tommy tomson joins me. and what a los in wisconsin would mean for both trump and the anti-trump forces. stay tuned.

still ahead, top advisers from the trump, kasich, and cruz

campaigns on what's ahead for tonight. but first, here's hampton pearson. >> we had stocks finishing lower across the board. the dow sliding by 133 points. the s&p off by 20. the nasdaq sinking by 47 points. job openings ticked down in february, to 5.4 million. that's according to the labor department. however, hiring rose 3.8% to the highest level since november of 2006. and starbucks shares finished slightly lower, after the company announced plans to open its largest store in the world in manhattan. it will be modeled after its first roastery in seattle. that's it from cnbc, first in business worldwide. you shouldn't have to go far

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and we are back, getting things set for the big night tonight. wisconsin primary night. on the republican side of things, it might be less about who will win in wisconsin tonight and more about how. and the size of victory, if it is a cruz win. and in a race where every delegate matters, tonight's margin and the corresponding delegate haul is going to be important. and right now trump holds a 275-delegate lead over cruz. we have top advisers here from all three republican campaigns, starting with the cruz campaign. we'll start with congressman reid ribble. he joins me now from the greatest little city on earth. green bay, wisconsin. i will always say that, as a die-hard packer fan. and full disclosure, multiple shares of the packers do i own. congressman, thanks for joining me. >> there we go. good to be with you, chuck. >> do you believe ted cruz can carry wisconsin in november? and did that factor into your decision to support him? >> no, it didn't factor into my decision to support him.

i think november's going to be totally dependent on who the candidates actually are in the moment. if ted cruz is going up against hillary clinton in wisconsin, i think he's got as good a chance as any has had since ronald reagan carried wisconsin. i think he can win. i think hillary clinton is a damaged democratic candidate. so it certainly helps him, for sure. >> let me ask you this, bigger picture. why do you think republicans have struggled in wisconsin in presidential years, but do well in midterms? >> you know, wisconsin is pretty purple and you'll see it in the numbers tonight, chuck. it's a very polarized state. bernie sanders is likely to be the winner on the left and ted cruz is likely to be the winner on the right, which represents how far apart the two political parties are and it's reflected in our senate dlelgs with ron johnson and tammy baldwin, who represent the perimeters of their respective parties. that's the nature of wisconsin

politics. >> and why is that? is that something they're just very mature activists on both sides of the aisle? is it just polarized because of the scott walker wars? what do you -- how do you explain this? >> milwaukee was the first city in the country that elected a socialist mayor. and that's been nearly a hundred years ago. and so, this polarity has been around wisconsin for a very long time. the state is generally progressive in its urban areas, and generally conservative in its rural areas. a lot of the state is rural and i think you'll see ted cruz do especially well in the rural areas, except for one variance. and that would be the counties of waukesha county, those counties down there, he's going to carry big. and that's in part because of the power of talk radio in wisconsin. >> how would you describe the state of the economy in green bay right now to an outsider? >> the economy is really good here in green bay right now.

and, in fact, the unemployment rate north of milwaukee is under 4%. as i go about my congressional district and talk about with manufacturers, farmers, different retailers, their biggest issue is finding enough labor to do the work they have. and so, things are going pretty well in northeast wisconsin, for sure. >> congressman reid ribble, i'll leave it there. thanks for joining me from green bay, wisconsin. now i want to move to the trump campaign. joining me here in studio is steven miller, senior policy adviser for the trump campaign. good to see you in person. >> good to see you. >> you guys put out a pretty detailed proposal today about the infamous wall. and of course, there's been a lot of doubters out there about how is the -- how is mr. trump, if he's president, going to make mexico pay for this wall? you guys put out this idea of being able to freeze remittances. how is this something that you can actually do? how do you pull the levers of government -- and i'm assuming you helped with this.

how do you pull levers of government to actually fulfill this promise? >> you basically use the same model that weave used with e-verify, which has been a very successful program. unfortunately, it hasn't been made mandatory. and e-verify is a way you check the legal status of a worker to make sure they need to be here. and people that do use the program, that do participate in it, find it very quick, very easy, very efficient. you can tell if someone's here illegally or legally, actually, like that. >> but the idea here is you are going to freeze even legal remittances. >> it would just be for illegal. >> only for illegal remittances? >> of course. >> it would not be for legal remittances. and you believe you can do this in a way -- >> it would be astonishing, in fact, how easily you could do it. >> without having to -- don't you have to designate mexico as some sort of state sponsor of something? i mean, we do this -- we can do this with countries that we, we put on the bad list, essentially. >> well, nobody has a right to work illegally, collect welfare

illegally, take a job from an american illegally and send that money back to mexico. of course you can freeze that. there's not only authority in the patriot act but the federal immigration law. >> is that money -- if they were illegal when they earned that money, then do you believe that they don't have any right to that money? >> the money that they are earning illegally belongs to the taxpayers of the united states. >> doesn't belong to them? >> no. and there's another important point here which is a humanitarian point. it's a bigger picture point, but i'll make it quickly. and that is our open border with mexico has financed two groups of people, primarily. drug cartels and corrupt politicians. several decades of an open border with mexico has financed one thing overwhelmingly in mexico, economic misery. no social reforms, no domestic reforms, no economic reforms. because they use illegal immigration citizen a safety valve, as a pressure release. when we stop illegal immigration, when we stop the band-aid, it will force mexico to have desperately overdue economic reforms. >> let me go, you're a senior adviser on policy.

we're hearing talk that he is going to do a series of policy speeches. what more can you tell us? >> there are going to be several policy speeches coming up. >> before the new york primary? >> i think you'll see at least one of them before the new york primary. you'll see a number, and it will probably get into a variety of issues. i can't say exactly now what they're going to be. but just to sort of broadly maybe put a little bit out there for the media to talk about. i think you'll see some more detail on military policy. i think you'll probably see some more dill on economic policy. but beyond that, i'm not going to specify anything today. >> and is it something -- is it, say, we'll see him do it in sort of traditional settings where you would roll out policies, or is he still going to use the big rally format? >> i think you can see it either way, but i think what you're going to see is like with the aipac speech, a different kind of format to show diversity, to show the many different strengths. obviously, he's dominated the rally format and people have enjoyed that and this adds another layer to it. >> do you think you can survive a loss tonight? >> i think we've been the underdog from the beginning. and as you know, we're fighting

district by district, because it's not a winner-take-all. so if we even win one district, two districts tonight, you'll see a boost in momentum, i think, going into -- >> you believe just that is enough to gain momentum? >> you're up against the entire state political structure. a governor who's won, what is it, three races in four years? so, yeah, i think even winning a district would be considered a boost of momentum heading into pennsylvania, new york, new jersey, and so forth. >> steven miller, i'll leave it there. >> thank you. >> now let's go to the kasich campaign, former wisconsin governor tommy tomson is with the kasich campaign. this is a state i would have pegged two months ago that one john kasich should camp out in, very similar to michigan and ohio. what's happened here? it feels as if it didn't quite take off the way you thought it would? what happened? >> i think after the ohio race, he had arizona and utah.

and you've got to realize, he's fought this battle through 17 candidates, now down to three. he's not had the money, not had the resources. and the press has sort of ignored him. and now they realize that john kasich is a -- is really a viable candidate and when you look at the opportunities in front of him, i think he's by far the best candidate. and if you really want to win against hillary or against bernie sanders, john kasich is the one that is always, by all polls, is the one that's going to list. >> and i guess i'm curious, governor, because why haven't wisconsin republican voters cared about this as much? basically, it's been since you were in charge of the party that republicans have carried the state in wisconsin. that's a long time ago. >> that is true. but the truth of the matter is, that in presidential elections, wisconsin always tilts and veers towards the democrats. and that's because there are

more borders and more individuals, as they get to the polls. the democrats do a much better day of organizing on election day, than the republicans have in the past. we're getting better, but we're still not up to what the democrats are. so john kasich, we should have -- we shouldn't be doing better in wisconsin but the truth of the matter is, we're going to win, hopefully, some delegates, and that's going to be a win for us. and we're working very hard to achieve that. and john kasich has an excellent campaign. and i have said for over a year, chuck, that we were going to go into a contested convention, and i haven't changed one bit. and we're going to have it. and when you look at the fact that ohio's got to be in the win column, if we're going to have a republican president, and that's where john kasich shines, i think we got a real winner in john kasich. >> i'm old enough to remember, when you were considered a conservative reformer as a governor. >> i am. >> why -- where's your party. has the party moved from you that you're not considered a conservative anymore?

or john kasich, for that matter? i thought of, you know, in the 90s. you and john kasich were serious conservative, reformers, issue-based guys. you heard about all of that. worked across the aisle, don't get me wrong, but you're not sort of seen as a 21st century conservative, what happened. >> i don't know wanted, but i consider myself a 21st century conservative. i like to get things done. i like to be a conservative on the cutting edge of ideas. the same way john kasich is. when you look at the ideas that have really gone to the forefront, welfare reform, economic reform, john kasich and tommy thompson has been leading the efforts. and that to me is a conservative. and if you have conservative ideas, it's okay to just go back and vote no. but you don't get -- you don't make any headway doing that. i'm a believer in getting government to work and getting government to work around conservative ideals and ideas. and i've always done that my whole life and will continue to do it as long as i'm involved in politics.

>> all right, former wisconsin governor. >> and don't forget, chuck, that the packers are coming back to go to the super bowl. i'm a shareholder, you and i are together. >> not only that, i heard aaron rodgers tweeted today, if he wins the presidency, he said he might consider kasich as his running mate. that's about as close to as an aaron rodgers endorsement you're going to get. >> we're on our way. that shows where the packers are. thanks, chuck, and have a great day. >> and in defense of aaron rodgers, he golfed with the president on sunday, talked positive things about john kasi kasich tuesday. see, he can bring america together. still ahead, our panel is here with a preview of tonight's primary. stay tuned.

keep it right here on msnbc. we'll have full coverage of the big badger state primary night. steve kornacki is going to break down the latest exit polling data at the 6:00 p.m. hour. chris matthews will host a special edition of "hardball," milwaukee style, at 7:00. and starting at 8:00 eastern, williams, maddow, and chris will have the up-to-the-minute results and analysis of tonight's contests. both sides of the aisle. will be fascinating. we're right back with some major political headlines that are not happening in webcast. some southern governors a to the center of some big controversies.

we had a few other stories making some political headlines on this primary today. today, another so-called religious freedom bill has been signed into law. this one in mississippi. phil bryant said it will -- opponents call it legalized discrimination against the lgbt km community. alabama filed impeachment papers against the governor, following an alleged sex scandal, or potentially using state funds to hide an affair. state representative ed henry said the governor used his office to use his office to cover up.

misuse of funds, repeatedly denied the affair. did not admit to making -- he did admit to making some sexually explicit remarks to one of his closest advisors today. he called it lit cal grandstanding and said he will not resign. we'll be back with more wisconsin primary coverage, right after this.

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choice. according to exit polls, 25% of republican primary voters decided who to vote for in the last few days. 75% decided before that. why do we care about that? normally trump does better with the early deciders, and not as well with the late deciders. will the same pattern hold, or did trump's late effort in wisconsin, heavy wisconsin both yesterday and today, pay off? something to watch for tonight. joining me now, ben ginsburg and "washington post" columnist, eugene robinson. gentlemen, welcome to you, both. ben, about delegates on the republican side. momentum and something else, i think more on the democratic side. let's start with that. explain how kasich could finish in third place, but win more delegates than trump. >> if all his votes come from one district say hypothetically around the university of wisconsin, madison.

>> they think they can do well. >> he'll get delegates for that, even if he is a distant third, if that's where his support is concentrated. >> and trump, even if he is competitive in these other congressional districts and has more spread out support, which he has had, but fess not first any any district, he doesn't win any? >> no, that's absolutely. wisconsin is winner take all congressional district and statewide. you don't have to worry about thresholds, so that's where things get interesting. >> is it almost impossible for trump to win a congressional district if he loses by? >> just like kasich, particular pockets of strength for donald trump, he is going to win, he is going to win delegates. probably if he doesn't get over 42% perhaps, it's going to be tough to have enough support in one district, unless it's really concentrated. >> let's move to the democratic side here tonight, eugene. obviously sanders not only wants

to win, but needs to win big to send this big message. i'm curious. where he is going to defeat clinton in a state that you think is wired for her? this is a state we all knew was wired for him. >> exactly. >> and he is -- his big victories have come in states wired for him. >> exactly. that might continue. i don't know what the state is that's wired for hillary clinton. >> they want to say it's new york. i mean, i give him credit. i think they're right they have to win new york to sort of make -- to prove to the rest of us there is something here. >> exactly. i think, look, that's a really, really heavy lift for him basically, to win new york state. but he has got -- stake all the marbles on that. one assumes, the polls show him leading in wisconsin. so let's assume he wins tonight. let's assume he does well. look, he won five of the previous six, right? so it's not like he is not winning states. but he is not catching up. >> let's talk about hand

wringing, in both parties. trump victory, what happens to the never trump movement? dead. >> yeah, i think if he wins tonight, this is a state where a lot of marbles had been bet. >> all right, now the opposite. a big cruz win, are there -- you and i both know of people who are anti-trump and afraid to say it. does it stiffen their spine and do we see momentum that we hadn't seen before? >> i think do you. i think it would be a very rough two weeks for donald trump, if he doesn't win tonight. but you're going into new york. if you're going into new york, that's his sweet spot. you can make it up. >> hand wringing on the democratic side. >> yes. >> you saw a lot after new hampshire, when sanders scored a big victory, hand wringing in clinton world. what do you think it would take, a loss for her tonight, for the hand wringing to reemerge. >> look, these are democrats

there is going to be hand wringing no matter what. you said earlier in the program, something i wrote in the column the other day, if it were not for donald trump, the story we would all be writing, why can't she put this guy away? why can't she put away this 74-year-old socialist? there will be more hand wringing over that, especially if again, out five out of the last six, and tonight, the winner is bernie sanders, even though she is way ahead in delegates, hard to catch her, but -- >> what's the pivot? what's left? >> she has tried to do some pivots, do you just grind it out? >> just grind it out. be who you are, right. that's who she is. she is a grinder. she is going to be there. she is going to pull out ahead, and probably win the nomination. >> why hasn't electability mattered yet, or will it in the convention floor? >> i think it will on the

convention floor more than it has in the primaries, because peemt are going with their hearts. >> my heart is going to be all here tonight, as you guys will too. we'll see a lot more of you. thank you, both. we'll be back with post "mtp daily," but stay with msnbc, for up to the minute results, starting at 8:00 eastern. coverage going on now. i'm handing the baton to steve kornacki. it is a beautiful day. we are hoping that here in wisconsin, that there will be a record breaking turnout. >> call a friend, call your sister, your son, your coworker. hey, come vote too, and stand with ted as well. >> we may not be perfect. we can always make progress. that's what hillary has always done. >> i think it's going to be a great day in wisconsin. and i think we're going to do very well. how do you think we're going to do in wisconsin? >> great.