convention floor more than it has in the primaries, because peemt are going with their hearts. >> my heart is going to be all here tonight, as you guys will too. we'll see a lot more of you. thank you, both. we'll be back with post "mtp daily," but stay with msnbc, for up to the minute results, starting at 8:00 eastern. coverage going on now. i'm handing the baton to steve kornacki. it is a beautiful day. we are hoping that here in wisconsin, that there will be a record breaking turnout. >> call a friend, call your sister, your son, your coworker. hey, come vote too, and stand with ted as well. >> we may not be perfect. we can always make progress. that's what hillary has always done. >> i think it's going to be a great day in wisconsin. and i think we're going to do very well. how do you think we're going to do in wisconsin? >> great.

and good evening to you from msnbc election headquarters, here in new york. i'm steve kornacki. all eyes on the state of wisconsin, polls there now going to close three hours from now. turnout, it has been brisk today. the lines, very long. a lot of interest in the badger state in that primary today. more on the reasons behind that interest, coming up. to set the stage, though, 42 delegates at stake on the republican side. tonight on the democratic side, 86 delegates up for grabs. unique contest where the under dogs in both parties appear to have the momentum coming into tonight's vote. ted cruz heading into the primary leading donald trump in all of the latest polls. trump believes his campaign is still going to have a, quote, great night and he predict ifs he can win tonight, if he can pull the upset, he'll be

unstoppable and win the republican nomination. meanwhile, bernie sanders, he needs a win tonight. he might just get it. polls show him coming in today, over an advantage over hillary clinton. breaking now, we're seeing the first exit polling out of this critical state. the first numbers starting to come in. we can tell you what kind of an electorate we're looking at. this is what they call the first wave of data, more voters after work. this is a preliminary look at what the voting electorate looks like in wisconsin today. here is what we can tell you. let's start on the republican side. take a look at this divide. this has been key in this primary process so far, 46% of the republican voters are college graduates, 54% aren't. donald trump has been doing a lot better with voter whose don't have college degrees. there has been a college/non-college divide. how about this?

we ask would white evangelical voters, more than 50% nationally have been white ee vvangelicals ted cruz has done his best with white evangelical voters. look at this question we asked voters. this could be key in the months ahead. this is saying if we get to that contested convention scenario, if donald trump emerges from the primary process, but doesn't have the majority, if we go to cleveland with no majority, we asked wisconsin voters, what do you think should happen at that convention, should the candidate who has the most votes going into the convention, even if it's not a majority, should that candidate be the nominee any way. 56% republicans in wisconsin say yes, that candidate should be the nominee any way. 42%, no. truly wide convention. anybody could emerge as the nominee. as you break this down, a big divide here.

this isn't surprising, since donald trump would likely have the most votes, going into an open convention, 83% of his supporters say it should go to the candidate with the most votes. 42% of the rest of the voters agree with that sentiment. meanwhile, on the democratic side, this is a trend we have seen pretty much across the board this primary season. this is what the ideological breakdown looks like. 25% of democrats calling themselves very liberal, 43% somewhat liberal. add them together, nearly 70%. in stark contrast to the last time we had a contested democratic presidential primary in wisconsin. that was eight years ago. that was barack obama. that was hillary clinton. we had a much lower number of voters back then in the democratic party calling themselves liberal. this has been a major story. we've seen it time and a again this primary season. it has gotten much more liberal in the eight years of the obama presidency. also, here is a breakdown worth keeping an eye on on the

democratic side. we asked voters, which of these candidates, democratic voters, most inspires hope for the future of the country. 56% of democrats said that candidate is sanders. we also asked this question. which candidate is best to defeat donald trump in november. and look at this. it's the flip. hillary clinton, 55% on that. bernie sanders, 42% on that one. so that's a taste of what we're seeing in these exit poll results. we've got more data coming in, more voters added to the mix. we'll breakdown the numbers as the night goes on. that's your preliminary look at the electorate in wisconsin. also, we have every other angle on the campaign trail covered right now, with our all star team. we start with nbc dave gutierrez, the trump campaign in milwaukee. gabe, signs that the stop trump movement is going to make a stand in wisconsin, certainly they hope to tonight. what are you hearing from trump today? >> reporter: hi, donald trump as he usually does, projecting a

lot of confidence today. he had several events. publicly, he was predicting a surprise win. but privately, some in his campaign are bracing for a loss. senior advisor, barry bennett saying the campaign hopes to pick up delegates here and there. so the question will be how many delegates will donald trump pull out today. yesterday, we were with him at a rally in superior, wisconsin, northwest part of the state. the question is can he pick up delegates in that part of the state. this a state, wisconsin, blue collar, where he should do well. right now there are a lot of questions whether the stop trump movement can notch a win here. now, donald trump already looking forward to the northeast, the contest coming up in new york. he already has a rally scheduled for long island tomorrow. and he is also dealing with the questions about in fighting within his campaign, sources within the campaign telling katy tur, an internal effort to

diminishle power , corey lieu when down s -- lewandowski, plans to shift gears, focusing on policy speech speeches, rather than his typical rallies. steve. >> dave in milwaukee. now to msnbc, kasie hunt. bernie sanders is holding a rally there tonight in wyoming. what's the latest? >> reporter: we are in wyoming, which of course is not wisconsin. attempting to again send a message that he is continuing on, regardless of the results out of wisconsin tonight. the primary there, very, very important for his campaign. his advisors privately saying they really need momentum coming out of there, heading into new york state, if they hope to stay in the hunt for the nomination. the question right now, what is the margin going to be if he is

able to rack up a significant margin, a large margin of victory that could significantly help him on the delegate front, and make it easier for him to argue that he can go on to win new york. of course, hillary clinton's adopted home state. the challenge for the sanders campaign still convincing people he does in fact have a shot to win this nomination. i just spoke with jane sanders, bernie sanders' wife and a close political advisor as well. she told me that this has never been a cause campaign for bernie sanders. >> i approached it in the beginning, oh, really, you know. i don't like politics today. there a lot of negative campaigning, relying on a lot of money from special interests, and i don't feel comfortable about either of those things. and he agreed. and said we would do it differently. and then you know, i said, well, i just think, i want to, you know, i don't want to take the time away from vermont, away from our family, away from the

issues in the senate, unless this is a real possibility. this, neither of us were interested in an educational campaign, although that's a big component. educating and informing the people. but so yeah, that was definitely something that i was concerned about. >> so jane sanders saying he is very much not just in it to win it now, but that he has been all the way along regardless of some of that reporting that says maybe they would have done things differently in 2015. steve. >> kasie hunt on the sanders beat in wyoming. we're going to turn to jay con, at the university of wisconsin, madison, polling place there. so jacob, we've been hearing these reports from across the state today. high turnout, long lines, lots of voter interests in this primary. does that match with what you're seeing on the ground there? >> reporter: it sure does. there is actually a secondary line. let's dip to here, steve.

bernie sanders country. you know the numbers better than anybody. john kasich as a matter of fact. 1,200 voters, not particularly long here. where the line is long is down the hallway. that's because out of the 43,000 students at the university of madison, wisconsin, sorry, wisconsin, madison, 14,000 of them, steve, are out of state residents. with the new strict voter i.d. laws, many in this state cannot vote here, without getting one of these, which is the new wisconsin voter i.d. down to the wire, all of these folks are still in line. i want to grab one live for you. hey, how you doing? i'm jacob with msnbc. do you live out of state? >> yeah, i do. >> where do you live? >> illinois. >> have you decided who you're going to vote for. >> what do you think? >> do i have to say? >> no, you don't. >> are you getting one because you live out of state? >> yes. the qualifications for these i.d.s, you have to have a two

year expiration on your student i.d., wisconsin, with 43,000 students, doesn't have that. >> hi, how are you? >> where are you from? >> chicago. >> illinois. have you decided who you're going to vote for? >> it's a secret for now. >> people are keeping it close to the vest here. up to 300,000 people in the state could be affected by this voter i.d. law, and potentially kept away from the polls. that's what bernie sanders in particular is monitoring closely, because as you know, he always says, without a high turnout, he may not win, and it's all on the line for him here. >> especially a high turnout in madison. jacob, i've got to say, watching that report from you, something that really struck me, you're good at walking backwards. th if that were me, i would be tripping all over the place. >> steve, next time i'm going to fall backwards, and my mom will call me and say why did you fall over on the steve kornacki hour.

>> i didn't mean to jinx you. on the ground, jacob, at the university of wisconsin. thank you for that. coming up next, much deeper in the democratic contest in wisconsin. we're going to talk to senator tammy baldwin. she joins us next. later, the republican delegate fight. what is mathematically possible, and what is a pipe dream. i'm going to talk to a member of john kasich's strategy team, former congressman, vin weber. stay with us.

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battling prejudice and paranoia is not the new york way. >> that was hillary clinton in brooklyn, new york. not in wisconsin, where that primary is taking place. a new nbc survey monkey online poll out this morning, shows clinton leading nine points. wisconsin vote with five wins out of the last six contests, and this afternoon, he told our andrea mitchell why it's important he is the democratic nominee. >> hillary and i absolutely agree that the worst thing for this country would be to see donald trump in the white house. and i think that when super delegates look at the reality of which candidate is the strongest against republicans, i think you're going to see those super delegates coming over to us. >> tammy baldwin has endorsed hillary clinton this weekend. she campaigned with her in wisconsin. she joins me now from washington, d.c. thanks for taking a few minutes.

hillary clinton was in wisconsin with you, but not there today. she hasn't been there a lot in the last couple of days. is that a sign that they're expecting defeat tonight in wisconsin? >> well, actually, you know, hillary and bill clinton spent time in wisconsin. i enjoyed spending sometime on the campaign trail with the secretary. and i believe, i have always believed, and i think the clinton campaign believes that wisconsin would be a tight race, a well fought campaign. and so far, it looks like the early word i'm getting on turnout in wisconsin is that we are not going to disappoint in terms of the reputation we have for being a high turnout state. but you know, we always thought this would be a hard fought contest in our state. >> bernie sanders is always talking, part of his message is saying high turnout, high turnout good for him. it's his strategy for winning the primary, strategy for

winning in the fall. if you're seeing high turnout, do you think that's a good sign for bernie sanders. >> i think that's a good sign for democrats in general. one of the things i observed, we had our state party dinner and i really think that everyone is going to come together on the democratic side, and when you contrast that with the division that we're seeing on the republican side of the ticket, you know, all the voters and republicans who are facing this moral test of if trump is the nominee, do they stand with him, and all of his divisive and hateful ideas, or take another course. we are y we are seeing the republican side totally divide. i'm confident, given the tenor so far, hard fought, but we are going to come together because we are about as a party, and you know, hillary clinton certainly

is a leader on this of helping hard-working americans get ahead. >> you know, that interviewee played with andrea mitchell today, he talked about his strategy for winning over super delegates, the elected officials who automatically vote at the democratic convention. he said his strategy for winning them over is to make them look at the polls that show he is doing better against donald trump, than hillary clinton is doing. you're super delegate yourself. does that mean anything to you? >> well, first of all, one of the things i can observe about wisconsin is that given our proportional allocation of delegates, that the outcome of tonight's race, as exciting as it is to watch, is not going to change the overall picture, and secretary clinton is going to maintain a very substantial lead among pledged delegates going into the next contests.

but that said, i think that the closer we get to november, voters are going to look at the nominees of each party, and think about in a very serious way who is going to be ready to be commander in chief and president on day one. who is battle tested, et cetera. and i believe that people will conclude overwhelmingly as we head to the convention in our nominating process concludes, that hillary clinton, secretary clinton, is that person. and so i don't see any significant changes with regard to super delegates. >> so but when he says look at the polls, he does have a point right now, doesn't he? when you look at the polls, trump versus sanders, trump versus clinton, sanders is doing better, both are beating trump right now, but sanders is doing better. why wouldn't he be the better bet? >> well, steve, the point i was making earlier is the closer we get to the general election, i

think the idea of who is going to be commander in chief, who is going to be president, and the experience that the american people think we need for somebody to be ready on day one, i think those polls are going to change. >> where do you think this is going? you mentioned the pledged delegate count here. it's true, when you try to run the numbers on this thing and find a scenario where bernie sanders catching hillary clinton with these so-called pledged delegates, it's very hard to do. at the same time, if he wins tonight, you could look ahead on the map and see other states between now and june where he could also win. this doesn't seem like a candidate going away any time soon. is that bad for hillary clinton if she does win to not be able to unify the party in these spring months. >> steve, i know you're numbers guy, and i was a math major. i also look at where secretary clinton is now. how wisconsin will impact that

regardless of the out come. and how big a percentage that bernie sanders would have to get in states like new york and the states that follow in order to change the math going into the convention. you know, this is a substantial and sizable lead that secretary clinton has, and you know, it's not, you know, it's not that there is not a path for bernie victory. but it is a very, very uphill climb. and so, you know, i'm not sure when, you know, and how he will make his decisions about continuing in this race. but the numbers speak for themselves. >> all right, tammy baldwin, senator from wisconsin, hillary clinton supporter. thanks for the time. >> thank you. up next, the all important delegate fight on the republican side. what exactly would it take for ted cruz to go to cleveland and

win the nomination? is there any way he can leap frog donald trump. chris jansing asked him about that today. >> i'm million more than anybody else. delegates, far and away. but the votes are more impressive, because i have, if you take a look, close to 3 million votes more than the second place person. so we're doing really well.

there is a lot at stake on the republican side in tonight's wisconsin primary. momentum for one. also, delegates. all important delegates. here's the scoreboard on that. trump sitting at 750. remember, the magic number for trump, 1,237. if he can get there during the primary season, he becomes the republican nominee. no questions asked. recently, trump has been arguing that the only thing bogging him down is john kasich. meantime, ted cruz says that kasich has already been mathematically eliminated. >> i think any candidate that doesn't have a path to winning, that's the time when you should suspend your campaign. and at this point, kasich has been mathematically eliminated. he needs more than 100% of the delegates to be the nominee. >> if i didn't have kasich, i automatically win. all i have to do, if i get 50%, lots of good things happen, right. i'm way over 50%. with kasich, it's harder. >> but kasich says all signs

point to a contested convention. he also says that cruz lacks a mathematical way forward. >> look, he is now 102% of the delegates going forward, that means it's mathematically impossible. isn't that interesting. both cruz and trump are saying, cruz is saying he is taking my voters. trump is saying he is taking my voters. yeah, they're both right. i'm taking both of their voters. we're going to continue to do well. >> all right, let's bring in former congressman vin weber. thanks for joining us. let me ask you this question about john kasich. we've had more than 25 contests on the republican side. kasich has won one, his home state. he hasn't won any where else. how can somebody with that resume as a candidate expect to emerge? >> first of all we're going to nominate a candidate in accordance with the rules. as you pointed out, if somebody

goes into the convention with 1,237, they're going to be the nominee. that doesn't look likely. the rules of our convention, our party are pretty clear. if you don't go in with the majority of the delegates, up to the convention, then have to ballot until they can get somebody with the majority. there is no rule about a guy with a plurality or anything like that. john kasich has the strongest possible argument of all the candidates going in. which is that he is the candidate that can beat hillary clinton. he has shown that in poll after poll after poll. he has shown it in his home state, maybe the swing state of ohio. so that's the powerful argument that he'll bring to the delegates. obviously trump and cruz will bring their own arguments to the delegate, but neither can argue they'll beat hillary clinton. >> we're actually seeing in the exit poll tonight, one of the argument trump would make. you're pointing out, no actual rule that the candidate with the plurality of delegates has to be the nominee. we asked that question in

tonight's exit poll to wisconsin voters. this is what they said. if nobody has the majority coming out of the primaries, 56% of republicans in wisconsin say nonetheless, the candidate with the most votes, the plurality candidate should be the nominee any way. have an open convention where the delegates can choose anybody. in terms of the technical rules, i take your point, but are you going to be up against this sentiment that it's just wrong to have a candidate who comes to the convention with the most votes and get nominate snd. >> i understand what you're saying. we face a difficult situation, to be sure. it's not just a technical question. even the numbers you cited, over 40% of the people think we should not go with the candidate that gets the plurality. the job of the convention, i'm from minnesota, a convention state, that's how we pick in oh my home state. pick the candidate that can unite the party broadly, and win the election. let me point this out.

in my state, when we nominate candidates at the convention, we don't demand 50% plus one. we demand 60%. in this case, a bear majority probably can't unite the party. >> play this out if you would after tonight. we'll see what the results are tonight at 9:00. ted cruz goes into tonight as the favorite. in terms of bringing about the scenario where trump is stopped, where does the race go from here? where does trump lose next? >> well, i think trump has been saying that his strong hold will be in the northeast. you know, as you know well, we all set this up as an expectations game. if trump loses tonight, that's what the expectation has been. if he should happen to win tonight, he'll have beaten expectations. he is expected to do well in the northeast. we'll see what happens up there. i think john kasich will continue to get delegates, but

more importantly, to show that's the candidate that can beat hillary clinton. by the way, the most qualified by virtue of experience by either candidate in either party. >> two weeks from tonight, new york, john kasich was spending time in new york, had an event yesterday on long island. former congressman, vin weber. >> thank you, steve. we have seen the long lines in wisconsin, voter turnout in the badger state, by all anecdotal is exceeding expectations, we're going to hear to those people heading to the polls as we speak. >> students leaving the line all day because it's getting too long. >> i would wait three hours to vote. it's a privilege.

this new voter irchlts .d. suppress people from voting. >> they should show their i.d. that's not much to ask. >> i've been in line for about

an hour and a half. >> an hour and a half? >> i'm missing class right now. i think they'll understand. >> after being held up in court for years, wisconsin's new voter i.d. law is in effect for the first time on a large scale today in the presidential primary. many voters weren't just deciding who they would vote for today, they were wondering whether they would be able to cast a ballot at all. tony dokoupil has been following the action all day at green bay, one of the largest polling locations. tony, what are you seeing on the ground there in terms of the voter i.d. law? >> reporter: well, steve, about as busy as a packers game today. the line behind me stretches behind the counselor 20 or 30 feet. two-hour wait. we were just entering the evening rush. one our behind you in new york. people are not so happy right now. all day long, they've come on their lunch break, had to go, students making the choice of going to class and not voting or

voting and skipping class. there is somewhat hopeful and happy conversations here. you know, it's kind of like church or a synagogue. we met one immigrant, a ted cruz supporter. we saw some bernie supporters who let a ted cruz supporter, even though they were not voting for the guy the bernie guys like. this is jacob, he brought his two kids in line. why are you sticking it out for so long. >> rub y asked me is donald trup our president, and we had to start a conversation. i'm showing her what it's about so we can continue the conversation later. >> ruby, do you know why we're here today? >> stopping donald trump is the reason. >> how long are you willing to stick it out? >> it's been about an hour and a half. >> almost nap time. >> yeah. >> i want to introduce you to

the guy, the lung suffering, but cheerful, chuck, the election official in charge. why is this taking so long? >> because we have a large number of new registers, and that takes time to register and it takes longer when they get to the actual table to vote. we also have a new voter i.d. law, which takes us longer to register the regular voters, and the fact that we have a state supreme court presidential primaries going on, so we have a lot of voter interest added to that. >> steve, before we go, i want to take you to the front of the line. voter i.d. law and a poll worker shortage. she said that they're at 50% of the desired staff at many locations. this location, only five workers here at the front of the line. they would like eight. you've got the voter i.d. slowing things down, and as a result, you've got the huge line, and yet the voting, the

polling stations, booths are empty. a lot of people are angry. >> the unsung heros, the volunteers who work as poll checkers. that is hard work. >> i do want to say that actually, steve. these guys are working hard. they're doing a great job. the best they can with limited resources. i want to say that. >> my grandmother used to do that. tony in green bay, really appreciate the report. thank you. and despite trailing in recent polls heading into wisconsin, donald trump insists he can pull a win out tonight. >> i think this has the feel you've victory. this has the feel of a victory. i think i am a much better fit. ted cruz is in favor of tra transpacific partnership. that's going to destroy wisconsin. >> it looks like a lot of the other rust belt states, where trump has won in the past.

back in the 2012 primary in wisconsin, milwaukee journal sentinel, composed 56% of the electorate. journal reporter, mary joining me now. mary, on paper, there are a lot of things about wisconsin that might make people look at it and say this should be a donald trump state. he goes into tonight as the under dog. what has been missing for him in wisconsin? >> i think what's been missing is he has been really battling with the establishment republicans here. he obviously did not get the endorsement of governor scott walker, that went to ted cruz. he has been battling with conservative talk radio, and getting hammered by them. really for weeks. when he called in, he did not get a warm reception at all. i think he kind of tried to fight back, but i think that's been a bit of a backfire for him, where he has drawn more fire. obviously, his comments about women, his retweet of the heidi

cruz photo has further raised concerns among the conservative republican women that i've talked to. >> how much residual strength, though, does trump have? one of the key questions tonight isn't just who is winning the state overall, if you start looking at the congressional districts, still a chance to get delegates even if he loses. >> right, yes. i think you can see by where he has been coming, he went to janesville, appleton, northern wisconsin, or up north. he has been traveling around the state quite a bit. he realizes he is not going to win southeastern wisconsin, a lot of ted cruz supporters here among the republicans. so i think he has been strategically visiting places where he is more likely to pick up some delegates. >> returning to the state this week, any different, i'm watching it through television, i'm trying to figure out all the

controversy, the bluster, any sign he is trying fro jeto proj slightly different imagine >> i think so. he invited a small group of reporters to follow him on sunday. he went to miss katie's diner, which is a traditional stop for p politicia politicians. everybody goes there. he said it was his kind of place. he invited reporters over. spent about eight minutes with me, talking one-on-one, invited the other reporters over. i would say he had a different tone this week than he did last week and the recent weeks that i had seen. i think he was maybe trying to tone it down a little and realizing he was not winning over wisconsinites we had seen before. >> it did seem that way through television. mary with the milwaukee journal sentinel. thank you for your time.

under dog in wisconsin for both races. bringing in the panel, we'll ask them. straight ahead.

with polls showing him leading in the state, here is ted cruz today, talking about the importance of wisconsin and its 42 delegates. >> i think the entire country is looking to wisconsin. wisconsin has a national platform, and megaphone, and if we end up with a win tonight, it is going to have national

repercussions, not just for the 42 delegates at stake here in wisconsin, but i believe it is going to powerfully impact the states to come. >> but donald trump's top delegate strategist quoted saying mr. trump doesn't need to win any delegates from the unbound states or wisconsin. he says trump would be able to get to win -- to win at the convention any way. the cruz campaign respond saying evidently the trump delegate team are all graduates from a trump university math program. joining me now asabrina, an white house reporter for buzzfeed. sabrina, let me start with you with what ted cruz was saying there. if ted cruz does win with wisconsin, is this a limited event, where we go to new york in two weeks and donald trump wins big there and wins big across the northeast and all is well in trump world again?

or is this an event tonight if ted cruz wins in wisconsin, that has a spillover effect, where we start seeing other states turning on trump? what is your sense of that? >> it depends on the margins. if ted cruz is able to secure a vig victory over donald trump in wisconsin, it will have remember repercussions. at least two polls out today showing ted cruz joining on donald trump. so for the first time, you're seeing some consequences for donald trump having a controversial week by his standards, when his campaign manager was charged with battery of michelle fields. winner takes most and allocated on districts. ted cruz could stand to benefit if he can take a majority of the delegates and pave the way for a contested convention. >> evan, we were talk about this in the last block with mary on the ground.

maybe a different donald trump, a different tone from donald trump in the last couple of days. did he have that somewhat of an admission over the weekend that he had gone too far with the heidi cruz stuff. >> yeah, i mean, you know, surprise. donald trump is a human candidate. it turns out that even donald trump, who had been able to sort of roll through all of this stuff and create this err of in he ha -- inevitable, he has a strong mess sa message. when he is not able to deliver the am he message because he ses own campaign spinning off into areas that no one wants to talk about, he finds himself now falling back to earth. the question is, can he sort of get back the message that he

wants to talk about. other candidates can, who are more disciplined. trump is not very disciplined. we have found that maybe this, you know, possibly this sort of gravitational pull, he is now suffering, could last and last and last. once you sort go of go over the hill, it's hard to get back up. >> in these exit polls, we're starting to get the numbers out of wisconsin, the voting is still going on, but we're giving the early waves. we put it up earlier. 56% saying in wisconsin, if nobody has the majority at the end of the caucuses, primaries, if nobody has the majority, 56% say the nomination should still go to the candidate with the most votes at the end of the primaries. that's what donald trump looks like he would be at the end of this. that's something the trump campaign wants to hear. how strong do you think that argument would be to stop republicans from going with a different candidate? >> well, look, i think that if

you are donald trump's opponents, would you far rather have the stage of the battle against donald trump be among a bunch of establishment types in a convention hall in cleveland. you would much rather be the place where you would try to stop him than in the primaries, where it has been very difficult to do so. so while there is a -- you know, all this process of conventions is going to be a very ugly to voters when they see all the sort of levers and machinery that the party establishment has to exert its will on the electorate, nevertheless, they do have those levers. and so while trump may go in there with a lot of momentum behind him, a lot of delegates behind him, should the rules say they can do what they want to do, they're going to try to do it. it will be tough for trump to make the argument to a room to people that really don't like him, which is a lot of the establishment republican party. >> sabrina, one of the other sub

plots, john kasich has taken shots at donald trump, cruz has taken shots. cruz thinks he has a chance to leap frog trump. cak kasich is getting in the way. >> kasich is playing the role of spo spoiler. the more you deprive donald trump of getting to the magic number, to 1,237, then the more you have prospect of a contested convention. john kasich also believes that although he is not poised to win tonight in wisconsin, we're beginning to get at least to apart of the map in pennsylvania and new york where he stands to do better. so i don't think you're going to see him go any where any time soon. >> all right, we're going to squeeze a quick break in. next, the democrats fundraising numbers. bernie sanders bringing in the big bucks, out pacing hillary clinton. the question on the democratic side, if you want to know who is

going to win, you've got to look at the delegates. could a big win in wisconsin help him narrow that gap? >> wisconsin is very important actually. there are a good number of delegates here. then we're going to new york state and that's where there are a lot more delegates. we feel really good. ♪ you're not gonna watch it! ♪

♪ no, you're not gonna watch it! ♪ ♪ we can't let you download on the goooooo! ♪

♪ you'll just have to miss it! ♪ yeah, you'll just have to miss it! ♪ ♪ we can't let you download... uh, no thanks. i have x1 from xfinity so... don't fall for directv. xfinity lets you download your shows from anywhere. i used to like that song. all right, we have some more exit polling data we want to share with you. the first wave of data from the wisconsin primary, telling you more about what the electorate looks like. remember, people are still coming back from work and voting now. republican side, how do you dedelaware fid define yourself, 31 very conservative, 43% somewhat conservative, combined, conservative. democratic side, 25% saying very liberal, 43% somewhat liberal.

if you add those two together, you're nearly at 70%. interesting about that, a story we've seen throughout the democratic primaries around the country this year. a democratic electorate that has gotten more liberal over the last two years. the same question when it was barack obama against hillary clinton, a much lower chunk of the democratic electorate calling itself liberal back then. this a story we've seen before. a taste of the numbers we're seeing now. a couple of minutes left. evan, sabrina. let's talk about the democratic side. the question of momentum on the republican side, it exists. sanders people saying we'll win in wisconsin, and it will have a spillover effect. surprising people, gobbling up delegates. what do you make of the game plan? >> well, it's one they've been trying for a while now, and there is math that we're looking at that shows how steep a climb

that is. a lot more of that conversation now is about super delegates who of course can be turned. they can vote for whoever they want to, versus actual pledge delegates, which candidates win on the road. so the sanders campaign are aware of where they are math mic wise, they beat hillary clinton with big margins in the final states, that even if she walks out of here with a couple of more or a few more or even dozens more fledgpledged delega they should pick bernie sanders. it's a tough sell. it's a hard uphill climb. it is the message and it is the plan that the sanders campaign has. you're seeing some evidence that it's working for them based on how the numbers are working out and how wisconsin looks. but what that means for the rest

of the cycle and for that convention, where again, the establishment makes a the decisions is a much different story. >> sabrina, a hard divide, asking democrats in the exit poll, who inspires the most hope for the future of the country, they say sanders. whose ideas more realistic. they say hillary clinton. >> well, that's been a trend that we've seen play out across the country. i think one of the other themes we've seen in both parties actually is that voters aren't very much concerned with electability. they're more drawn inspiring. bernie sanders as evan was pointing out, lac a plausible path to the nomination. even if he is to win in wisconsin, it is going to do little to change the trajectory of the race, barring a decisive victory, with tof the spillover

effect. >> we'll see what happens. that's going to do it for this hour. thanks for the time. i'm steve kornacki, "hardball" with chris matthews, and then special coverage of the wisconsin primary with brian williams, rachel maddow, chris matthews, i'll be there as well. straight ahead. will wisconsin make history. let's play "hardball." good evening, i'm chris matthews, out in milwaukee. we learn whether donald trump has withstood his week of trouble or that his trouble has only begun. tonight, we learn whether the democratic race is trending toward bernie sanders or hillary clinton is holding strong. wisconsin will matter. this state has been a