♪ ♪ good evening, i'm chuck todd here in new york city. and welcome to msnbc's special coverage of the new york primary. and guess what, this is the start of essentially a seven-week sprint to finish the primary season. every tuesday is gonna matter from here on out. the polls close here in new york in just a few hours and we're moments away from our first look at the exits here in the empire state. we'll get our first look of the indications of the mood and makeup of the electorates on both sides of the aisle. . three of the five remaining candidates have called this

state home at some points in their lives and all three of them made their way through new york city today. >> you're voting for yourself, what does that mean? >> it's a proud moment. it's a great moment. and who would have thought. it's just an honor. >> it feels great and i'm so excited about both campaigning here in new york, voting here in new york, and i love new york. and this has been a joy during the last two weeks, to be here, all over the state. >> secretary clinton implied she could wrap up the whole nomination today. >> i'm afraid she's going to be disappointed. >> for republicans, the question isn't whether or not trump wins, it's whether he wins big enough to take all of the state's 95 delegates. trump will be in new york tonight, but ted cruz and john kasich have already moved on. they're already in pennsylvania. one wonders if they should have been there last week. right now, they're in pittsburgh this afternoon. at least kasich was, and he kept his expectations for tonight

extremely low. >> how are you hoping to do in new york tonight? >> well, we hope we get some delegates. we'll see. we really want to get a few delegates. i can't make a prediction, but we worked hard up there and hopefully we'll come out of there with some delegate momentum. >> for the stop trump folks, the name of the game tonight is to keep trump below 50% in at least as many congressional district says as they can. they haven't made a very good effort to do it. and to get all 95 delegates, a candidate has been above 50% statewide and in each congressional district. but you could argue the stop trump movement stopped short in new york. team kasich and team cruz spent just under $500,000 a piece in the state with the largest media market in the world -- at least in the country. it's like pennies. for that, they may get five delegates each. trump is way ahead in the polls

after spending just $67,000. trump campaign didn't spend a dime on tv in new york. compare that to wisconsin. is this the end of the line for trump? or should they have been moving on last week into the states that vote next week? we'll get into that. as it stands now, donald trump needs to win 61% of remaining delegates to hit the magic number before the convention. if he wins anywhere close to the 95 delegates at stake tonight, then he could parlay that and he parlays that into winning next week, sweeps them all, say by double-digits, the number he'll need to hit 1,237, the percentage he'll need will be at 50%, and that's very doable. for cruz, by next tuesday, a first ballot win could become mathematically impossible. on the democratic side, it's a similar similar. a clinton win tonight would make the delegate math difficult for sanders. clinton is leading the new york

polls. sanders is trying to remain optimistic. he needs 33% of the pledged and remaining super delegates. sanders needs 27% of those, hillary clinton needs 33%. if she sweeps the april 26 contest, her magic percentage goes down to 22%. so it begs the question, what is bernie sanders' end game here? what does he do if he ends up losing new york by double digits tonight? our team is fanned out across the state. harlem, queens, and buffalo. so let's start with chris jansing. hillary clinton and sanders have been no stranger to the party as they courted voters of color. clinton is hoping lightning strikes twice and she gets a repeat of her win in 2008.

what have you seen, what's turn-out look like? >> reporter: well, turn-out looks really good here. there are eight different election districts. you can see there's four tables, four tables. some of the after-work crowd is starting to come out. but we've had almost 1500 voters today. long-time poll workers tell me this is an incredible turn-out. you want to know how democratic harlem is? barack obama won here by 93 and 95%, only 6% of the registered voters are republican. so, chuck, that pretty much tells you what you need to know. what does hillary clinton want to do here? look, she's very well known here, this is the place just a couple of blocks away, where after he left the presidency, president clinton opened his office. still has his post presidential offices here, he's got a lease through 2020. when you talk to supporters, they talk about what the clintons have meant to this community. all politics, is local, right? so we've seen this renaissance with restaurants, with housing. and when you talk to people who

are clinton supporters, they are passionate about them. having said that, there are also some bernie sanders' supporters, we talked to and they're not all college kids. we've met some couples who are split, but it is a heavily democratic area. this is really the kind of place where hillary clinton wants to get the margins really wide. she wants a resounding win in places like this over bernie sanders because it's up in the more rural areas where he is more neck and neck with her. so really the question here is, how big is the margin for hillary clinton, how much pressure then does that put on bernie sanders, as you say, to think about where his campaign goes going forward, chuck. >> absolutely. and it's an example of what has been the achilles heel of the sanders campaign. struggling in the more diverse areas whenever he's gone head to head with hillary clinton. chris jansing in harlem, thanks so much. now to the birth place of donald trump, the borough that he grew

up in. jacob soboroff joins me now from bay side high school in queens, new york. should be good trump territory in general. is it? what have you seen? >> reporter: yeah, and chuck, in fact, we scooted from bay side high school over to ps 146, in howard beach, which is by the rockaway beach section of new york. it was hit very hard by hurricane sandy and it turns out of that 51 council districts, only three of them are represented by republicans and this is one of them. what we're looking at here should how much turn-out donald trump will get. in each district if he gets over 50% he'll take home those three delegates. if he gets over 50% statewide, he'll take home all 95 delegates. and it will be easier for him to get to the 1,237 come july in the national convention. this is where ballots are scanned. as we walk over here, ellen,

don't leave me yet. i got chuck todd here. this is ellen, one of the ballot scanners and we were talking earlier about a trend we're seeing at this polling place that could be critical to donald trump's success here. you were saying you've seen some democrats want to come and put their ballots in here and vote for donald trump, but they can't, is that right? >> correct. >> reporter: and why is that? >> because if you're a democrat, you can't vote republican. >> reporter: it's a closed primary? >> yes. >> so what are they saying? >> they're saying we want to vote for trump, and we say, you can't, you're a democrat. they say, we're not voting for anyone. so they put in a void ballot. >> reporter: that's really interesting here in new york, especially if donald trump wants to walk out of here with the entire slate of delegates, versus 70, 80, in the 60 range, and it could be critical to his success or failure, or i guess limited success as you were saying earlier, here in new york tonight. >> well, it's a big reminder

that these are closed primaries on both sides. tougher for sanders, tougher for trump, if you look at previous patterns. jacob -- tony in queens, thanks so much. let's go to western new york and buffalo, with tony dokoupil. upstate, we expect trump to do well, but we also expect sanders, that this could be where he does -- where he's able to win some congressional districts in either western new york or upstate new york. what are you seeing. >> reporter: that's right. i'm in a unitarian church that accepts everybody regardless of religious background. but just down the stairs is the polling station where not all political parties are welcome. you have to be a registered democrat or republican if you want to play in this game today. this is where the ballots are being inserted.

we don't want to cause a kerfuffle here. there you go, sir. what's fascinating here, bernie sanders should have a tremendous turn-out. there are signs and a murl outside. there's an organic grocery store, people outside with bernie sanders' shirts on. but when they come in the door, many of them are registered independents. they can't participate here. so bernie sanders is losing vote after vote, at least two dozen in this location, according to laura, the long-suffering poll worker behind me who has to turn people away. we asked how does it feel doing that. she's upset by it. we also spoke to the supervisor for buffalo county. he's a hillary supporter. hillary is typically the one who benefits from lower turn-out. he doesn't want to see an open one where you can come from any party. but he would like to see the registration process brought up to maybe 30 days before, so

maybe some changes next time around. >> tony, thank you very much. we're also getting our first look with some of the exit polls coming out of new york. steve kornacki will help me break that down in just a few minutes. so stay with us. quick break, real exits after the break, first ones you'll see. don't go anywhere. >> after this campaign, with so much ugly divisive rhetoric, we're going to need some unity. because america doesn't grow by building walls. we grow by breaking down barriers that hold americans back, so we all rise together.

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to learn how you can save energy and money with solar, go to pge.com/solar. together, we're building a better california. breaking news right now, we have the very first look at the exit polling. early exit polls coming out of new york, according to these nbc news exit poll results, 68% said

the democratic campaign has energized them. 27% said the campaign has divided the democratic party. on the republican side, 57% said it's divided the party. 3 democrats feeling better about their campaign than republicans. perhaps not a surprise. we'll have more on the numbers and you're watching special coverage, we're in the midst of a seven-week sprint to the end of the primary season. we'll be right back.

well, we're going to start spreading the news. we have our first round of new york primary exit polls. to shed light on the data, here's my colleague steve kornacki. and on the republican side, it's an incredibly small sample, so we're being very careful with it. >> and the reason for that, it's

skewed a little bit toward new york city, but take a look at what we're seeing here, headlines from both parties. every primary night we've seen this in the democratic party. 58% of new york democrats called themselves very or somewhat liberal in 2008, that number pushing 70% eight years later. this is also something we're seeing on the republican side. eight years ago, 2008, 56% of republicans called them very or somewhat conservative in the state. that number now over 70%, calling themselves some norm of conservative in new york. we can also look at, this is interesting, there was a lot of negativity in the democratic campaign in new york. bernie sanders at one point calling hillary clinton unqualified. has this campaign we asked democrats, energized your party. 68% of them say the sanders

campaign has energized the party. only 27% say it's divided the party. very different results for the republican party. 57% saying it's divided the party. and here's a new york specific question, the role of wall street. this has come up on the democratic side. does wall street help or hurt the u.s. economy? overwhelmingly, voters saying it hurts the u.s. economy. even on the republican side, this is interesting, a small majority saying wall street, wall street a major part of the economy in new york, saying it health authorities the new york economy. we don't have the graphic for it, but it looks like bernie sanders supporters in particular saying that wall street hurts the u.s. economy. >> that's a fascinating -- but again, even in new york state, majority in both parties, we've seen this time and again, this economic anger message, however we ask it in each subsequent poll, it always turns out to be both parties kind of are starting to share that view in

some form or another and here we are again. >> that's right, chuck. >> steve, thank you very much. we'll see you later in the evening with more numbers. let me break down more of the new york primary. we have lawrence o'donnell here host of "last word." we have nbc political analyst and republican campaign attorney ben ginsburg and nicole wallace, former senior adviser to john mccain and president bush. can we put out an apb for the stop trump movement? >> no. >> i'm trying to figure out where it is, it's not here in new york. >> because it's such an expensive media market and they made the tactical decision to harbor resources for further down the road. now there's less road to harbor the resources for, but it's the classic decision that you make in a state where for a variety of reasons, this isn't the place to try to fight this fight. >> nicole, there was so much,

call it exuberance in this movement, the day after wisconsin. and i think the ted cruz campaign, you talked to some supporters of it, you get the sense that they too know that they maybe had some irrational exuberance to borrow a famous phrase. they came here and maybe now regret it. >> yeah, listen, i think the real stop trump movement was the 15 republicans who ran against trump, and i think they ended in piles of dust is a pretty good prediction of how this movement now organized around the very idea of stopping trump, is going to end. i think the cruz campaign sort of derived, as you said, an irrational degree of optimism. their game is the second ballot, peeling off delegates should trump not arrive at 1,237. they're not in the game to beat trump in the primary contests. >> but, ben, you know this stuff better than anybody. so we're sitting here now, trump looks like he may get, let's say 80. a bad night would be 80 for him at this point, of the 95.

>> can i just say, imagine that two weeks ago tonight? >> right. and follow it up, there's not a state he'll lose next week, at least as it stands right now, because the stop trump movement, they should have been in pennsylvania last week. they should have been in maryland last week. two states that they could have made progress and i think strategically made an error. >> well, what they tried to do, i think, is to not play the statewide visions of winning the popular vote and gone into particular -- >> on one hand, smart, right? >> on one hand, smart, because you don't get many delegates statewide in new york or in any of those states next time. if you go in and do the granular work with delegates, that's where you're actually going to be able to get some territory. >> and the stop trump movement had a great weekend in georgia and wyoming on the delegate count. >> right. >> but i guess i go back to, maryland republicans are a lot like northern virginia

republicans. you can't start this tomorrow. >> no. >> right? i mean, this is what feels weird about why the stop trump -- they sort of only think week to week? >> maybe you don't see it and it's really out there is, i think, the best case for it. but yes, you have to start early with delegates. that's what the cruz campaign is showing by picking up these victories in the states. it's what the trump campaign has now realized. so the thrust of all of this is going to change a good deal in the conventions down the road too. >> but -- and i'm sure we'll hear a lot tonight from -- you and i especially -- wait for indiana. >> right. >> indiana? >> listen, i think there's been so much analysis of the race, as people wish it were, not as it actually is. and as it actually is, we've sat here together now week after week after week, talking about trump's dominance. i mean, the voters are responding to him more than they're responding to this stop trump movement. and the hysteria still lies very

much so in the establishment, in the conservative media, and in the conservative elite. if this election has taught us anything, they're not the deciders. to borrow a word from -- >> where does this go from here? do you still have trump in the stop trump movement -- >> this is not a year for faith. i abandoned faith in 2015. >> you atheist! now you're going to prove everybody right. they have no faith. >> i found god this year. >> i remember the morning the newt poll came out and donald trump was at 12. and we can find a shot of me saying, you don't think he's going to go higher than 12, do you? but faith is not something i've brought to this process. but we've never seen this before. it's a movement of republicans that say, if this person comes out of the convention, we will work against him.

>> but will they vote for hillary? what do they do? >> the day after the republican convention we'll have never trump people on and they'll tell us -- >> but this story is about, no matter which way the nominating process goes, there are going to be alienated republicans and who exactly is left to bring the party back? >> we have mitch mcconnell trying to walk back what he said over the weekend when he said he was optimistic of a second ballot. well, in classic mcconnell walkback fashion, you got to watch this. take a look. >> what i said somewhat inartfully is that we'll have a nominee once we get to 1,237 votes. and if that doesn't happen on the first ballot, there will be another ballot. and i hope that

ted cruz was third. he was at 49%, not yet at 50, but he's a watch out, 50, he'll get there. the public is screaming, don't give us this choice! and that's where i think you're right about uncharted territory. what happens when you hand an electorate to two people they don't want? >> it would probably mean you have the most negative campaign in history, which is something we've been saying for every election. >> it's not only the most important election, it's usually the most negative. >> but look what happens with the down ticket races, such interesting coalitions that a senate candidate or a house candidate in a contested race is going to have to mate with the top of the ticket and that's going to decide exactly how negative this all becomes, i think. >> what is -- donald trump, this is going to be the first time, we think there's a new trump or

at least -- >> oh, i don't think so. >> i'm with you. >> but let's use it as a hypothetical. >> i think paul manafort is trying to create a new image. so this is the first time there will be a victory speech under the manafort regime, stay on message, you don't have to temper it back, just stay on the same message. what do you expect tonight? >> if paul manafort gets his way, it will be a careful speech, but that includes trump flourishes. you don't want the teleprompter to suddenly bury the guy. >> that's right. >> who's been doing all that shtick that they're showing up for. and you'll try to get a kind of more lively version of the a pecks speech and see if he can do it. the only other option is, he has pays of alienating people in these free-form speeches. >> there were a lot of people in wisconsin, his family, and other

establishment folks who have endorsed him, who are urging these -- let's call them tweaks, let's call it a reformed trump. because i think that was the question -- >> he has stayed on one message. it may be the same bomba bassit. >> he made up with megyn kelly. he has been more strategic. he has been more measured and it's all relative to the trump we saw three weeks ago and four weeks ago. >> so what's the message from cruz and kasich tonight? >> trump does, the let's bring the party together message. cruz says, the dream lives on, that there's still a conservative movement that has to be able to -- >> and what does john kasich do? >> and john kasich said, i'm looking forward to the states next week where i'll do really well. >> kasich is going too finish second tonight. >> he is. >> and how damaging is that to cruz and his credibility as the alternative?

>> cruz isn't playing that game. he lost the delegate game. he's speaking directly to them and he's running a second ballot drill. >> kasich is making a play that the deck of cards will get thrown in the air at the convention and will land on someone electable. >> kasich is the guy who will hold down the trump delegate count if anyone is. >> but they should have invested in him more. >> why aren't kasich and cruz cooperating? that's the question. >> right. and this will be the second-guessing that goes on when donald trump is accepting the nomination. [ laughter ] that's a fun way to start. we'll have more exit polls throughout the hour. still ahead, new york congressman, chris collins, the very first member of congress to endorse trump. he joins me next, stay tuned. >> it's all about accumulating delegates going into the convention, because now everybody has figured out that

we're actually going to go to a competitive convention, an open convention.

i think we'll do really well. it feels really good. you see all the people over there, all positive. no hecklers, no nothing. >> that was donald trump this morning, feeling pretty good after he cast his ballot in new york city. voters across the empire state, they'll still have almost four hours to cast theirs. remember, new york doesn't close until 9:00 p.m. eastern. coming up, chris collins will join me to discuss trump's path forward post new york. and we have another exit poll number to share with you. 65% of new york democratic primary voters said they would definitely vote for clinton if she is the nominee in november. 20% said they will probably vote for her. but 13% of new york democratic primary voters said they will not vote for clinton if she is the nominee. we'll be back in a moment, but first here is hampton pearson with the cnbc market wrap.

>> thanks, chuck. stocks ending the day mixed, the uda adding 49 points, the s&p up 6, the nasdaq falling. earnings from johnson & johnson came in ahead of forecast. the company raised its guidance, sending shares higher. and intel shares are down. they plan to cut 12,000 jobs, 11% of its workforce as it restructures. that's it from cnbc, first in business worldwide.

welcome back. as i told you at the top, it is the start of what is going to be a seven-week sprint to the end

of the primary season. and it all begins tonight with the new york presidential primary. donald trump looks poised to win tonight. the question is, how big? kasich and cruz are looking ahead to pennsylvania. kasich campaigned in pittsburgh today, and cruz has a rally in philadelphia tonight. one wonders should they have been there sooner? that's a separate story. meantime, back in good old new york, anything above 50% for trump tonight means he could take all the delegates. he's got to be 50% in every district to pull that off, probably not doable, but he could come close. still he could have a big night, winning even 80 delegates would put him on a strong track for the next round of votes in connecticut, pennsylvania, maryland, delaware, and rhode island. joining me now, katy tur from brooklyn. let me start with you. obviously they feel good about tonight, but i think the question is, what are they going to do tonight to set up the next week? because his speech tonight,

katy, will be the first time we've seen the new trump, or sort of the influence of the new trump team on a victory speech. >> reporter: i think what you're going to see tonight is what we've been seeing in the stump speeches of the past few days, which is a more to focused and tailor- made message. he's tailor-making messages to the city. i think we'll see him looking forward to the next states that vote, pennsylvania, connecticut, indiana, rhode island. the northeast is a sweet spot for him. he has a lot of appeal. when it comes to pennsylvania, they're focusing on the 54 unbound delegates. they have been decrying the rules quite a bit, but they're working the rules in pennsylvania. they have a slate they're trying to push through, to get their own delegates in place. but they'll focus on message and

substance, instead of outrageous statements. it's something that we've heard a lot from supporters on the campaign trail. they are entertained often times by his bluster, by the fights he gets into. but a lot of time they want him to tone it down, they want to hear more of his message. they want him to be slightly more presidential. there are those in the campaign that disagree with that idea, who are pushing back on it, because they want trump to continue being organic. they want him to continue being himself. so tonight i think what you're going to see and it's going to be very telling, if he stays on message and on point, then we're going to see more influence from rick riley or fall manafort. but if he starts to ramble on and get outrageous, then you'll realize he's not listening to anybody and he'll continue to follow his gut, which has got him pretty far so far.

>> if there's such a thing about being disciplined about being unscripted, that's the sweet spot he's looking for. katy tur, thanks so much. >> exactly. >> let's check in with hallie jackson and the cruz campaign. but you're not with them. because they've gotten out of dodge. >> reporter: they're not in new york. >> are they admitting that trying to campaign in new york maybe in hindsight was a mistake. ? >> i think it's clear from where senator cruz is today, in pennsylvania, in maryland yesterday. we wasn't in new york, hasn't been in new york for four or five days now. which is a clear message of where he sees the race going. in the last couple of minutes, he pulled off this testy interview with sean hannity in which he issued his most forceful defense of his delegate hunting strategy so far. trump has criticized him for that. cruz has said, the process is the process, the system is the system. now he's pushing back hard. he said, i cannot help that

donald trump's campaign does not seem capable of running a lemonade stands. elections are won by voters, people who pick the candidates. there was an interaction where cruz pushed back and said i'm not asked about this by people on the ground. when you talk to voters in new york state or maryland where we were yesterday or indiana or pennsylvania where we're headed tomorrow, likely, you do hear from people questions about how this works, particularly people who are not political activists, who are not grassroots members who are involved in the process. we were in wyoming this weekend, talking to the people who were at the state convention there. they all know the process, they get it. but the people donald trump is pulling into the tent maybe are confused by this. >> it could well be. meanwhile, the east river looks like the pacific ocean, it's so choppy behind you. hallie, thank you very much. appreciate it. we'll see you a lot tonight. let's bring in the first sitting member of congress to become donald trump. it's new york congressman chris collins.

welcome back to "meet the press dail daily". >> happy to be with you. >> when you endorsed him six weeks ago, probably more recent than that, did you expect him to be as dominant in new york state as he turned out to be and perhaps in your congressional district? >> yeah, chuck, it was actually eight weeks ago. >> thank you. >> and we knew he was going to be dominant, certainly western new york, devastated by the loss of jobs, china and mexico stealing our jobs. his support here crosses the party lines. it's not just republicans. it's actually democrats and independents as well. he's going to do extraordinarily well in western new york. and we're pretty confident he's going to do well across the state, whether he gets 51% or not in all 27 districts, that's a heavy lift. but we're looking at about 80 delegates out of new york, giving him momentum. next week there's 0 delegates at stake. pennsylvania is a large state with a very confusing primary

system, with the delegates that are really unpledged. but when donald does well in pennsylvania, that's going to put a lot of pressure on the delegates to follow the lead of the voters. so it's a different strategy in pennsylvania, but donald trump's right where he needs to be to get to that magic 1,237. >> let me ask you this, if mitch mcconnell called you up and said, i'm no fan of donald trump, you decided to go for him quickly, what am i missing, what don't i understand? what would you tell a mitch mcconnell, paul ryan, who are doing verbal gymnastics not to look like they're comfortable with trump, but they're trying to be neutral. what do you tell them to get them more comfortable? what got you more comfortable? >> what i would tell them, for the last 7 1/2 years, we've had a legislator who stepped into the president's office, never been prepared and the country has paid a price.

the only chief executive left standing that could be the president is donald trump and bringing that experience into the white house. someone who would put together the best cabinet we've ever seen, because he's going to hire the best and the brightest, that's what you do in the private sector. that in and of itself should carry the day, because we can't have another ill-equipped legislator going into the white house with all the issues and turmoil and trade and everything we have to deal with. you need the executive experience. >> fair enough, but donald trump's executive experience, he's had some successes and he's had some big failures. what of his successes gives you confidence that he can be the chief executive of the united states? >> well, we learn from our mistakes, whether they're markets that you get into, companies you invest in. and when you look at his 40 years as a chief executive and the ups and downs, we all have those ups and downs, the bottom line is, his successes have overwhelmed some of the other

issues, and i think it's well regarded pretty much everywhere donald goes. he's surrounded himself with key people, top people, probably more women in the top echelons of his company than most anywhere else. treats his employees with respect. so that's the kind of donald trump chief executive you'd see in the white house with a great cabinet, not micromanaging, but letting those officials do their jobs. >> i asked you how you would make the sale for trump to mcconnell. what's your advice to donald trump to be a better general election candidate? on paper, it doesn't look like he'd be a strong general election candidate. he's got a lot of perceived weaknesses. what would your advice be to him to do well in a district like yours in a general election? >> well, he's doing well. i came out of the private sector. my slogan was elect a chief executive, not a chief politician. it's the same message that donald's doing. you go to the top level of what you're going to do. he's been very clear, he's going

to put in tariffs to level the playing field with china and mexico. we're going to get our jobs back. he's talked about what he's going to do on the border, secure our borders, immigration. so he's been giving that 30,000-foot message that has been very well received in my district, very well received throughout new york and the northeast. he just needs to stay on that message, which he's doing, certainly continuous improvement in the private sector. you're seeing changes with his campaign. that's what you do, you tweak things in the private sector. again, continuous improvement. i think bringing paul manafort on was a great move, and donald trump, he wants to win. he's a winner. he knows what it takes, and i'm very confident you will be seeing a more presidential donald trump as this campaign moves forward. >> congressman chris collins, the first member of congress to endorse donald trump, from western new york. thank you, sir. appreciate it. >> still ahead, my colleague chris matthews will join me, get

his take on what's at stake in new york. look ahead to the democratic side of things as well. just what does bernie sanders need to do tonight? and if he doesn't do it, how does he land his own plane, when it comes to deeming with this nomination fight with hillary clinton? stay tuned. >> i think we're going to win here in pennsylvania next week.

>> we have the final tally on how much money the campaigns have shelled out on tv ads in new york. bernie sanders spent about twice what hillary clinton spent here. sanders spent $5.6 million on ads, versus $2.8 million for the clinton campaign. that's a reasonable amount of money to spend on a primary like this. will it pay off? we another number to show you here. 59% of new york democratic primary voters would vote for sanders if he's the nominee. 21% said they would probably vote for him. 18% they would not vote for him if he's the nominee. 13% of democrats saying they wouldn't support hillary clinton if she's the nominee. it's 18% that wouldn't support bernie sanders if he's the nominee. you're watching our special coverage, seven-week sprint to the end of the primary season

that begins with new york. we'll be right back.

surprise to hear joe biden say if he were running he would be doing well. that's true. let's go to the bernie sanders question tonight. if he doesn't pull off the

upset, there's not a realistic path to the nomination that doesn't include the fbi. let's be realistic here. if you're sanders, how do you land this plane? it got pretty contentious this week because i think they know the end is near. what does it look like tomorrow? >> it looks bad. it looks like he's ending the campaign by trying to knock her in and out campaign where he can't win the nomination. he looks like he's going for her head. talking about her character. he keeps saying judgment. let me tell you, you know the speeches will be turned into great republican attack lines. he's going after -- he said she made a deal with the devil. you can't say stuff like that and meet in philadelphia and say we're all friends. these are really strong attack

lines. i wonder why they are being delivered except as a chance for a last minute reprieve from what looks like defeat on the part of the sanders people. >> it all makes sense if it stops tomorrow. the question is do they continue these messaging and attacks after tonight? >> i don't know. i wonder if they are looking at the ad copy. washington politicians get $200,000 for speeches while the working guy and woman can't get $15 an hour for minimum wage. no politician in washington can give a speech, period, for money. the idea of making 200,000 is completely dishonest. bernie sanders knows it's dishonest. he can't give a speech for money. what's he talking about? congressman, senator, cannot give those speeches and haven't been able to give them for more than quarter of century. why are they running that ad?

he's trashing the whole political system. you're asking the right question. i know you are. what's the purpose of this kind of campaign at this point? >> here's my other question to you, i think bernie sanders has an opportunity while losing the battle to hillary clinton, he would win the long term war and take over the democratic party in message. take over the democratic party in sematics. is he going to mess up that opportunity? >> he's 75 to september. what do you mean the future? >> it's the movement could take over the party. >> who will take over the movement for him? >> elizabeth warren. >> i think she does her own thing. that's why she's so pure. i don't think she's a party

leader. >> especially got a lot more. you have a lot more time the say it. chris matthews, thanks for much. we'll see you again at 7:00 eastern. special edition of brooklyn hardball. we'll be back with a lot more previewing. right after this.

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polls close in 3 hours. the start of a seven-week sprint. every tuesday will matter from here on out. tonight, williams, maddow, matthews will have up to the minute results. we'll back with more. steve picks up the coverage right this instant. i am so excited about both campaigning here in new york, voting here in new york and i love new york. >> i definitely voted for trump. >> who would have thought it was a great honor. i think it's great honor for new york. new york is a special place. >> we hope to get