ours, prognosticators, pundits, use phrases like, the math gets much more difficult. as of tonight they're being kind where several of these campaigns are concerned. five seconds away from the top of the hour. our poll closing in new york and our first characterization of the new york primary. it is now 9:00 eastern time. and we have a projection on the democratic side, too early to call. but there is the first victory of the evening. our nbc news/msnbc election unit, not given to hyperbole, is reporting this is a significant win for donald trump at poll closing, 9:00 p.m. the projected winner of the new york primary. it is a massive prize. and yet to be determined is the final total of delegates he gets to leave his home state with to take to cleveland. as we saw briefly there on the democratic side, notable wording

here, too early to call in the contest between hillary clinton and bernie sanders. but local man does good. >> look at it, i have to say, there's the one really big picture takeaway from this is that we're looking at three new yorkers. there's five people left in the race, three of them are new yorkers. donald trump born and bred. bernie sanders born and bred before he took off for burlington, vermont. and hillary clinton neither born nor bred but the senator from this state. we don't have any further characterization of too early to call on the democratic side. sometimes we get a lead, sometimes about i get some sort of characterization. >> they're tight on that tonight. >> i think it was a foregone conclusion that donald trump was going to win tonight. with it being his home state, just how things are going for him in the race. i personally as a pundit, when i look at that republican race right now, i feel like there's a lot of wishing and hoping going into people's description of anything going on in that race other than donald trump winning.

tonight this is going to turn out to be a massive win. next week those states are likely going to turn out to be massive wins for him. putting a lot of hope in indiana is a way to hope. but he really is winning this nomination quite clearly. and i think denying that that's the situation in the republican party right now is more spin than anything. we'll see how many delegates he gets tonight. nobody says he is going to get a sweep. but if he gets 50% statewide that will give him all the at-large delegates and we'll see three delegates, three delegates, three delegates, three delegates in congressional districts all over this state. >> we'll keep this live picture up. this is the lobby of trump tower where they just had applause and cheers reacting to the news that apparently all the major networks now have projected donald trump as the victor here in new york. i'd like to bring in the voice of chris matthews, brooklyn

bridge park. chris, this is precisely the conversation you were having right before the break. >> yeah, i think that the -- we've had a hard time in this election season telling the difference between a concession speech and a victory speech. nobody willing to concede. but tonight trump will give a victory speech like we haven't heard. the new york media market, you're both there, i'm here too, is so powerful in the world today. the world's going to hear within minutes that donald trump has carried new york. it's going to have an overwhelming power throughout this country and around the world. new york is the center of the consciousness of the universe, as john lennon once said. it's where we make decisions. the broadcasting capital, the financial capital, the cultural capital of this country. if it picks trump by 20 points, how can the republicans stand in the way of that? it's awesome and he's going to talk like that i think in a few minutes. rachel's dead right this election's being decided as we speak. >> chris, as we'll stay on this

picture and bring trump's live comments the minute they start. i want to talk about new york again. if i can ask the control room to put up that shot of times square that we so often use, it's from a robo camera several stories above times square. this is unofficially referred to as crossroads of the world. the truth is it's been a construction site for all of recent memory. the traffic is squeezed, forced to drive over steel plates. it is a horror for the pedestrians there. and the bridge chris is sitting in front of by the great genius john roebling, the truth about that bridge is underneath it, the ell train subway tunnel between brooklyn and manhattan, chris, it was knocked up really badly during sandy, really banged around. and now the construction on that tunnel isn't going to start until 2019. and when people hear that,

because no one cares enough about these projects to go be a leader, get the funding, it's depressing. and that part of the trump argument that we haven't been winning, that he's tired of losing, that our airports should look better to people arriving here, that part has grabbed people who are not necessarily political, who have -- who would not have described themselves as trump fans early on in this process. they wouldn't mind to see a little bit of that here in new york and especially other older industrial cities around the country. >> the great terrible paradox, guys, is that people do trust republicans to use their dollar a little more efficiently than democrats. a little more. and yet republicans don't want to spend the money on things like that. so the party that would have a little more business sense, you might say, claims it certainly, isn't willing to do it. the party that wants to spend money on infrastructure isn't

trusted to keep the money used efficiently. we've got to find a way to rebuild this country. if you think about the old phrase, we live by the heat of fires we didn't light, it's so true. i look at the subway system in philadelphia. i look at this infrastructure we built. this amazing building put up in the 1880s by the roebling brothers. this beautiful architecture. the golden gate bridge. would we build anything like it today? we built the empire state building in the depths of the depression in one year. we were capable of building -- ayn rand had it right, building sigh scrapers is our great tribute to the building ability in this country. we have a trash can of a subway -- penn station is a dump. i'll repeat it. daniel moynihan said, pat moynihan said, we arrive in new york like rats, not like princes. laguardia is a joke. travel anywhere in the world, japan, china, south africa, beautiful airports. beautiful train systems. 200, 300 miles an hour without

making a sound. you can put your coke on the tray and it doesn't move. in this country, it's the wild west going from new york to washington. it's a disaster. and that is the real problem. you've got the heart of it. if we can't build, we can't live, and we can't grow. that is a problem for both political parties. for different reasons. one isn't trusted with the money, and one has stopped offering to do anything in government. and that's a problem. >> wow. >> chris matthews, you're brilliant. chris, to the point that you're making, i think to the point that brian was making, trump's appeal around this is, listen, i'm a builder. therefore i'm get it done. don't think of me as a republican on this issue, republicans have been so against any infrastructure investment, particularly in the obama years, because it's been an obama/biden priority. it's been a signature issue of vice president biden in particular for his career. one of the things that is i think exciting in the punditry business and the prospect of an unusual matchup in this election

is nobody knows what a donald trump campaign would be like. i happen to believe that in the general election on some issues he'd try to run to the left of hillary clinton. we've seen that on the iraq war, we've seen that in some ways on infrastructure. that idea, scrambling that matrix of ideological expectations, whatever you think of the candidates, is exciting in terms of what it would mean to cover it. but in terms of this win tonight and donald trump having this win in new york state, what do we know about how he's put that win together and what its overall dimensions are likely to be? steve kornacki. >> rachel, one of thing we've heard every primary night so far from the stop trump crowd is hey, he's never gotten over 50%, he's never won a majority. if these exit polls are right he's going to blow through that talking point. among conservative voters, donald trump over 60%, a landslide over ted cruz. somewhat conservative, trump near 70%. what we told you, more than 70% of the electorate here in new

york falling into one of those two categories. moderates, a smaller group, john kasich jumped up there. there could be implications. 27 congressional districts, the question is did you trump break 50% in each one of those? seeing this high concentration for kasich among moderates does raise the question in a few districts, we'll look at this later as they come in, could he creep up this there, keep trump under 50% in a few districts where there are a lot of moderates? something to keep an eye on later on in the night. also this college, non-college, trump done much better with those who don't have college degrees. even college grads tonight a majority for donald trump, noncollege grads over 60%. so again, i know this is his home state. but it is worth noting ted cruz brags about his home state win in texas. he did that with just over 40% of the vote there. john kasich was in the mid 40s in ohio. his home state. donald trump in new york looks like he's going to do much

better than each one of them did in their home states. that 50% number, that's important statewide, because there are some statewide delegates donald trump will win all of. >> 95 total delegates tonight, 14 if you break 50% statewide. he gets 14 assuming he's over 50. but the actions with those other 81, those are in those 27 congressional districts. we're going to start getting those returns, we'll keep a close eye on it, keep you up to date. >> so bragging rights and momentum for hitting 50 and some real numbers. steve, thank you. >> sure. >> steve, thanks. two things we'd like to look at. first the skyline of new york city, if i'm correct, they went from red, white and blue atop the aforementioned empire state building to painting the top red. let's assume that indicates the first call of the night, the republican victory for donald trump. we'll see if it goes blue when we get a call for the democrats. some crowds building up in new york city.

we are told. outside trump tower, a very short walk from here along fifth avenue, this trump event is going to be in the lobby which depending on what part of the lobby they choose may well be visible for spectators and passing traffic on fifth avenue. let's bring in two of our friends, nicole wallace who has been with us all evening long, and through this long, long journey. a veteran of white house and campaigns for bush and mccain. and steve schmidt is with us, speaking of bush and mccain. we're happy to have you back. steve, we'll start with you. if, in fact, donald trump continues to paint parts of this country red, what do you make of what's become of the party and what's heading for the party in cleveland? >> look, we're going to have a very contentious convention in cleveland. what's unsettled tonight, is donald trump going to get to 1237 delegates? it looks like he's taking a big step in that direction.

brian, when you look at these campaigns and take the measure of candidates, you have to look at candidates when things go badly. and so look at donald trump tonight in the context of the last two weeks. having the big loss in wisconsin. retooling his campaign. dealing with some of the temperament issues. strengthening and toughening his message as the outsider candidate. railing against the establishment. he's put all of that together, recovered from the loss, big win in his home state tonight. and now he goes on as you come to the closing chapters of the primary contest and ultimately california, the state out west with the big prize, 170-plus delegates. that will likely be the state that determines whether donald trump goes into the convention as a first-ballot nominee or whether it will be an open convention, a contested convention, where we go to a second, third ballot. if that happens, anything could happen, with big consequences for the republican party. >> steve schmidt, thank you very much. nicole wallace, bouncing off

what steve just said, one of the things we've been talking about in terms of the trump effect in the republican party is that you can't stop donald trump in the abstract. somebody else has to win besides him if he's not going to win. ted cruz and john kasich are the only guys left in the race. are either of them capable of being the vehicle for stop trump heading into california and those kind of places that would have a consequential result? >> not anything into california but there was some thinking after wisconsin that maybe he would come up short. and they're not playing the same game anymore. trump is in a race to 1237. and kasich and cruz are really in the same boat, both hanging around in the hope of an open convention. and sadly for cruz, who's running a superb campaign from a technical perspective, he's an incredibly disciplined candidate, there is not a play that is much better for him that is there is for kasich at the convention. they both have to hope for a second ballot. they both make the case to the delegates. cruz has many, many more delegates but kasich has a much

better argument for a general election. i want to add a quick beat to what steve said. there was a big question about whether donald trump was capable of changing after wisconsin. and it's my understanding that after wisconsin he was very depressed about the loss and he made tweaks. he made adjustments. he's still severe from perfect he's in another time zone from perfect but he met with megyn kel kelly, he stopped hate tweeting around the clock, he stay off the sunday shows two weeks in a row. it is a big deal when politic n politicians and people can change. >> for now. i mean, for now. >> that's always been your take on it. >> a boomerang sort of thing. because for one reason, one reason that he might go back to some of that, is that it worked so well for him. being the sort of anti-politician. being not liked by anybody else. only like trump worked very well for donald trump. >> he won't want to lose that. >> he won't want to lose that, that is his brand of authenticity.

ted cruz's problem is he's in the middle of the badlands right now in terms of potential votes for him. new york, not good. the five states next week, not good. >> connecticut, delaware, maryland, right. >> does he essentially expire of thirst before he gets to the other side where he could potentially do something. >> katy tur at trump tower, i was thinking of your beat earlier today. donald trump took the free media time in the run-up to the new york primary, virtually assured of victory tonight, and used it to work the refs. used it to say, ladies and gentlemen, we're up against a rigged, corrupt system. >> yes. that's exactly what he is trying to do. but he's had -- as the outsider calling out the system saying, this is somebody who's not part of the establishment. he's solidifying that.

to the rest of the voters who might feel disenfranchised by washington, not represented by washington, left behind. now donald trump has become really a feeling for that section of the republican electorate. even independents who might have crossed over. as for tonight, they expected to win big tonight. now the campaign manager -- >> katy, we in the business call that a really crappy cell phone connection. >> it's a technical term, yeah. >> we have audio available to us from the lobby of the trump tower but it's been devoted to the microphone at the podium awaiting donald trump. so those of you with cell phones say and relatives or loved ones who have made calls back and forth in modern-day america of 2016, that's what they sound like. and they're really horrendous sometimes. >> one of the subplots in this

race right now has been that man with the brush cut in the lower right-hand corner of your screen, just walked out of frame, corey lend do you ski, who is technically still the campaign manager, but there's reporting about intrigue in the trump cam poun and how lewandowski has been more or less sidelined as old-hand republicans have been brought in to take over some of the key positions inside the campaign. that's one of the reasons i think people are hotly anticipating what mr. trump is going to say and act like at this appearance tonight as his campaign changes and his top aides change. will he change as a candidate? will he just maintain a different public persona on nights like this now that he's got new guys running the show? >> mike murphy in new york, a veteran of the mccain and romney efforts, among others, most recently ran the super pac for jeb bush. so mike, let's talk about reince priebus, a guy who probably doesn't get the coverage or the

credit he deserves, roundly considered the very worst job in politics in 2016. rnc chairman. trump has kind of publicly batted him around and toyed with the idea of ejecting him should he be successful. if you were appointed tonight rnc chairman, what would you do differently? >> boy. i would never be appointed that. because i'd spend all my time fighting trump. i'd last one day. but you're right, reince has the toughest job in politics because he has the perception of authority and limited responsibility. party chairmen don't have the power they used to have. he's got to orchestrate a process that doesn't tear the party apart and keep an eye on the senate and house races where the stakes are pretty high, particularly in the senate. among the professionals in the republican party there's little optimism about either trump or cruz as the nominee not leading to all kinds of cataclysmic

losses including at the presidential level. he does have the hardest job. if i were him i'd be looking into the witness relocation program because there's really no solve for him. he's just stuck. >> it is a tough name. they're going to find you in your local phone directory when your name is reince priebus. priebus, reince. take a look at social media. donald trump, who has shall we say shown some restraint of late on the social media front, has tweeted tonight, thank you, new york, i love you. it says there at the bottom of the page with some unmistakable artwork above. we are waiting to hear from donald trump. we will fit a break in. if he appears at the lectern, at the microphone, we will come roaring out of said commercial break and bring you his remarks in their entirety. as you look at new york city on this primary night. they found out who's been hacking into our network.

who? guess. i don't know, some kids in a basement? you watch too many movies. who? a small business in china. a business? they work nine to five. they take lunch hours. like a job? like a job. we tracked them. how did we do that? we have some new guys defending our network. new guys? well, they're not that new. they've been defending things for a long time. [ digital typewriting ] it's not just security. it's defense. bae systems. shoshow me more like this.e. show me "previously watched." what's recommended for me. x1 makes it easy to find what you love. call or go online and switch to x1. only with xfinity.

there was the news at the top of the hour, 23 minutes ago. and that is, at poll closing, the projection, donald trump is the winner of the new york primary. as of right now, 5% of the raw vote in. this is the finishing order. again, 7, trump, kasich, cruz. ted cruz paying a very high price for those new york values he talked about a couple of debates back. there is the podium at trump tower in the lobby. american flag in the backdrop. we will go there when donald trump approaches the microphone. >> one of the things we're watching in terms of these results is congressional district by congressional district. there's this weird situation with new york city and the republican side, because new york city is so unrepublican. at least most of it is.

in the 2012 republican primary, 13% of the primary vote came in from new york city. almost all of it came in from other places in the state. but that does create this weird situation where these tiny pockets of republican voters in new york city can have a really big impact in terms of delegates. we're watching those new york city congressional districts closely right now to see how that might affect tonight's delegate results. steve? >> we're seeing some potential imbalances here that could have significant implications. this is the statewide vote that's coming in right now. what we have, this is our map right here. this is new york city. this blob you're looking at. these are all of the congressional districts that are in new york city or that touch new york city. let me just tell you what we're seeing right now. this right here, this is staten island. the 11th district is staten island, the little bit of brooklyn here. this looked like it was going to be trump country. boy, it really is. two-thirds of the vote is coming in here so far. donald trump is running at 82% on staten island. remember we said if you clear

50%, you get all three. it looks like from the 11th trump's going to get all three. here's where it starts to get interesting. this is manhattan here. you see a bunch of districts that are in or touched manhattan. the key is the vote that's come in from manhattan, it's not by congressional district, we can't yet break it down that way. the vote that's coming in from the borough of manhattan, there's more than one-quarter in. get this, john kasich is leading. 46% to 43% right now in manhattan. we don't know which district exactly. there's a little bit of a lag in terms of getting the actual congressional district vote. remember we showed you kasich winning in the exit poll with moderates, you're talking about how small the populations of republican voters are in some of these new york city districts. this is the threat to donald trump tonight. does he not clear 50%? does he in fact lose in some of these manhattan districts? every place where he falls short of 50% tonight, that's going to cost him delegates.

>> that is astonishing. i mean, donald trump is going to run away with new york state, he's going to have a huge victory here. but mr. manhattan, the guy who emblazoned his name on every available surface on the island of manhattan, might lose manhattan and win the whole rest of the state? god this election is weird. >> reminds me of a song. we'll keep at it. we'll keep our eyes on the map. always wonder for the folks who live where steve is drawing, does the sky turn red above them? >> hm, sort of a haze. >> worth talking about. chuck todd joins us in the studio. we were just saying that between mike and steve and nicole, we're operating a place where republicans have come and asked for asylum. and we've given them shelter and food here tonight. where would you put the republican party right now? what has happened to the republican party? >> the party has to make a decision. the leadership of the party i think has to make a decision. are they all-in on trump?

or are they going to throw in the towel? they're trying to have it both ways. they're trying to make it publicly known, oh, no, if trump earns the delegates it's fine, that's the rules, that's okay. behind the scenes they're vehemently swearing they'll do whatever it takes to stop trump. probably there's no better way -- example than what happened to mitch mcconnell over the weekend. here's the senate republican leader who does an honest interview with a local television station, hey, i'm optimistic there's going to be a second ballot. everybody's going, oh, you're showing your cards, you're anti-trump. then today, well, i was inartful. if you're afraid to take on trump now? when you're trying to supposedly put together a stop trump movement? you're not going to stop him. so i think the party has to make this -- either go all-in and just rip the band-aid off and have the fight now and try to -- or don't, or surrender. i think this middle ground that they've tried hasn't worked.

it's in effect a surrender that gives trump running room. i think the stop trump movement now is just -- and the party, they've just sort of let this happen. they really blew this two weeks. i think they will come and look back. this was their last, best chance and they may come to regret it. >> chuck todd. giving us a cautionary note there as we look at trump headquarters. this is the lobby of the trump tower in new york. the security detail leader has been back and forth. corey lewandowski as rachel mentioned has been on the lower right-hand side of your screen. the importance of that is he's not with the candidate. he's out here on his phone as this campaign may start to gave a little bit more like a professional campaign. another quick break.

♪ new york new york

francis albert. we've busted out of commercial break because they just announced, according to the announcer, "the next president of the united states, donald j. trump" with his wife, children, and significant others. he's coming down the main aisle. again to the strains of "new york, new york." we'll open up the microphones and let this play out. ♪ i want to wake up in a city that doesn't sleep ♪ ♪ and find i'm king of the hill top of the heap ♪ ♪ these little town blues are melting away ♪ ♪ i'll make a brand new start of it new york ♪ ♪ if i can make it there i'll

make it anywhere ♪ ♪ it's up to you new york, new york ♪ ♪ ♪ new york, new york ♪ i want to wake up in a city that never sleeps ♪ >> -- really nice i have to say to the people that know me the best, the people of new york, when they give us this kind of a vote. and it's just incredible. and i guess we're close to 70% and we're going to end at a very high level and get a lot more delegates than anybody projected, even in their wildest

imaginations. so i just want to thank everybody here. i want to thank my family. i want to thank -- [ cheers and applause ] >> usa, usa, usa, usa, u schsa! >> i really want to thank my team. my team has been amazing. and you know, it's actually a team of unity. it's evolving but people don't understand that. the press does understand it, they just don't want to talk about it, that's okay. just keep talking, it's very important, keep talking. but this has been an incredible evening. it's been an incredible day and week. we went all over new york state, new york state has problems like virtually every other state in the union. our jobs are being sucked out of our states. they're being taken out of our country. and we're not going to let it

happen any more, we're going to stop it. very importantly, and i have to -- behind me i have to say we have some of our great businessmen of the world. carl icahn is here, where's carl? howard laub ebb, ben lebeau, the great steve roth. steve's building a big building on central park south, it's a tremendous success. i said steve, congratulations on the building. he said, donald, it's nothing compared to what's happening with you. is that right, my man. so anyway, we're proud of him. we have our great leaders. and it has been really something. it has been really something amazing. and believe me, we're going to use our great business people to negotiate unbelievable trade deals so we bring our jobs back and we don't let our companies go to mexico and all of these other countries -- >> the perils of modern

communications. you saw the shot freeze and digitize. we've got it back. let's go back to trump tower. >> -- nobody is going to mess with us. that i can tell you. we're going to take care of our vets. our vets are our great people and we have forgotten our vets. illegal immigrants are taken care of in many cases better than our vets. that's not going to happen anymore. that is not going to happen. we're getting rid of obamacare. it's going to be repealed and replaced. it is a total disaster. with premiums going up 35%, 45%, 55%. it's going to probably end of its own volition. we're getting rid of it. we're bringing common core, we're knocking it out, we're cutting it. it's going to be over. and we're bringing education locally. local communities are going to take care of their educational needs. and people have been waiting for that for a long time.

so with all of the things that have happened today, tonight, and over the week, i'll tell you what, this has been an amazing week. all over new york state, we went to syracuse, we went to albany. 20,000 people. on average we'd have 15,000 to 20,000 people. we went to rochester. we went to bethpage. we went all over. and you know what? the people of this country and the people of this state truly are great and amazing people. we are going to be so strong again, we are going to be -- really, i mean, legitimately, so great again. and i just can't wait. so -- we don't have much of a race anymore based on what i'm seeing on television. senator cruz is just about mathematically eliminated. and we've won another state.

as you know, we have won millions more votes than senator cruz. millions and millions of more votes than governor kasich. we've won and now, especially after tonight, close to 300 delegates more than senator cruz. we're really, really rocking. we expect we're going to have an amazing number of weeks because these are places and they're in trouble. they're in big trouble. when you look at pennsylvania, when you look at indiana, when you look at maryland and rhode island and so many places, we have problems everywhere you look. we are going to solve those problems. and one of the big problems -- [ cheers and applause ] one of the big problems is the economy and jobs. and that is my wheel house. so again, i want to thank everybody. it's really nice to win the delegates with the votes. you know, it's really nice.

>> we interrupt donald trump for this projection. on the democratic side, as he was talking, our election desk is projecting that when all the votes are counted in the state of new york, hillary clinton will be the victor on the democratic side. a big prize for the democrats, 291 delegates in all. 36% of the vote in. this went awhile. it's 9:39, polls closed 39 minutes ago. we had it as too early to call. but now projected hillary clinton adds to her victories. what we've been saying is, especially a victory of over 10% makes that again the mathematics gets very hard for bernie sanders. >> we'll be watching that margin because the way the democrats apportion their delegates, it really is proportional, not necessarily by congressional district or any of these other ways that republicans break them down, it's proportional according to the amount of vote you get.

the margin will matter here. but the sanders campaign had said they were going to win new york. that has not turned out to be the case. >> we'll go back to the donald trump event in trump tower. >> -- i am no fan of bernie but i've seen bernie win, win, win and that i watch and they say he has no chance of winning. so they have their superdelegates. the republican system is worse. so i want to just thank everybody. i have great, great admiration and praise for the city of new york and the state of new york. i can think of nowhere that i would rather have this victory. so we love you all. have a great evening. we celebrate. and tomorrow morning we go back to work. i'm flying tomorrow morning to indiana. i'm going to pennsylvania. i will be all over. so we're going to celebrate for about two hours. then early in the morning i get

up and we begin working again. thank you, everybody. and thank you, new york. we love new york. we love new york. thank you very much, everybody. thank you. >> among the points people are just learning as they read into donald trump as this becomes more and more real is the friends and family who say he requires about four hours' sleep a night. certainly from his twitter feed and his early morning calls into whatever b109 is in your city or town we can is surmise that much. nicole wallace, steve schmidt have been sitting together in studio. the question is, how do those remarks differ? this is about staff work and both of you have been good, loyal senior staff members to prominent politicians in your careers. how do those remarks differ from the unregulated donald trump

earlier in this campaign? are those curate d remarks you just heard? >> i think one of the things that's most significant, it wasn't lying ted. >> exactly. >> it was senator cruz. >> yes, yes. >> i think you're seeing him begin to address the temperament criticism and his talk tonight was on message. the trump message, as he delivered it tonight, it's a potent and powerful one. making the country great again. talking about the economy. talking about jobs. talking about trade. talking about the sense of loss that so many americans feel, that the country's best days are slipping behind it. and that we can be great again. you see a potent general election message. even though he has some structural difficulty in the polls right now with women and other demographics, nobody should discount the power of that message moving into a general election. >> and it's exactly that when you gather republicans in

private, not on television, what they'll say when they try to choose between cruz and trump is that with cruz it's a certain defeat. trump's such a wild card, anything can happen. and the great hope with trump is that the two messages that electrified his candidacy were one after kate stanley in san francisco was murdered by an illegal immigrant, he started talking about immigration in a way that was pretty uncivilized for politics but was deeply visceral for our party. and on the economy, when he talk to people whose jobs were shipped overseas, he makes that same visceral connection. the great hope, the great potential of trump's candidacy, is to sort of reassemble a reagan coalition and grow the party. and that's sort of its idealized potential. we'll see if he gets there. >> mike murphy, i'm reminded that in our polling, our latest polling, his positive and negative, he is 41 points underwater which is the largest

gap of anyone in the history of our poll of prominent presidential candidates. so given what your two colleagues just said, there's that. >> yes. i disagree with my good friends up there. he will be beaten like a slow mule in a general election. he's managed to alienate the two swing groups that decide who becomes president. white women, and minorities. and when you turn those swing groups -- there aren't enough angry white guys in the country to elect a president on the trump theory. tonight's a great night for him, give him credit, he's going to get two things he wants -- a lot of delegates to get to that make or break first ballot for him, and a chance to reset his campaign and try to build momentum. particularly into may where he's got tougher states. if he can prevail then, he'll be the nominee. if he can't, open convention, i think cruz would take him on the floor. we'll know a lot more after indiana. this could go, as steve said, all the way to june in california and new jersey, which is a bit of an ace in trump's back pocket if it votes like new

york, because it's winner take all. >> chris matthews, brooklyn bridge park, your reaction? chris? it's brian. your reaction to what we've been bouncing around here? >> well, i think it's still going to be a very asymmetric general election if it's hillary clinton and donald trump. if that comes to that amazing development, hillary clinton is very prepared when she goes into a debate, for example. she takes a briefing very well. whenever she's been into a debate situation she's come off very well, very controlled. if trump becomes that kind of a controlled politician like hillary clinton, he'll be very different. but he does have this ability to think on his feet. and to come out with these amazing sin nap seese. he's been able to do that pretty much till he got here. now he has to make a little different presentation. but i tell you, it's an amazing development. i'm still overwhelmed by the sheer surprises.

and he continues to surprise us. and hillary clinton continues to underperform. in many ways. she has all the advantages but has not been exciting. trump's always exciting. and i think that that's going to be one hell of a general election campaign. with trump starting out very behind and perhaps catching up to a very exciting conclusion. >> chris, on the left-hand side of the screen is clinton headquarters at the times square sheraton where it looks like we're expecting her shortly. one more question to you and that is, let's take your theoretical bracket here of a clinton/trump race in the general. where do the young voters go? especially the young voters we have seen in such sweeping and impressive numbers at sanders events. >> that's procedural up to people like bernie sanders and elizabeth warren.

elizabeth warren has not been a big part of our conversation. but she could help rally them to hillary in one way or another. she could get out there and stump for her. that would change everything. they are disembodied, they're not part of the democratic party yet. they have to be brought into this campaign. not as democrats but as those who want to have a role in the general election. i think elizabeth warren is the key. i think she really is. >> chris matthews, thank you. one of the things that is interesting about these front-runners tonight is that all of the other candidates running -- john kasich, ted cruz, bernie sanders -- all got out of dodge. the two front-runners knew they were going to do well in new york, they both staged their events in manhattan tonight. and i'm happy, it looks like we're going to have donald trump's remarks pretty much back to back with hillary clinton's remarks which we're expecting any moment. they are literally -- she's two avenues west of him. and three blocks south of him. they're both not just in new york and new york city and manhattan and midtown, but if

you were going to either of those two places you would go to the same subway stop, they're that close together. and it is -- the rest of the country sometimes feels like new york treats them like flyover country, nights like this give lie to that accusation. >> by the way, they're just telling me we have a quick upda update. we are declaring that second place will indeed fall to ohio governor john kasich. he will come in second in the empire state tonight. just a development. an improved characterization, if you will. >> we can now say that everything that ted cruz ever said with a sneer about new york values, senator cruz, the feeling's mutual. steve kornacki, looking at the congressional districts tonight and how this margin is going to shape up for donald trump, do we have any more information about what his delegate haul is going to be? >> we have a lot because most of the votes coming in from new york city and a lot of the districts are in new york city, so again, 95 total delegates at stake. donald trump looking like he'll

finish over 50% statewide. if that holds he gets those 14. the question though is can he break 50% in all of those 27? there are 12 congressional districts. this tiny part of the state, new york city, let's blow that up. here they are. let me take you through them are. we have the majority of votes in in most of these 12. i'll give you realtime information. donald trump right now is running near 70% in the fifth district. in the sixth district he's running over 60%. in the seventh district, that's right here if this makes sense, 58%. in the eighth district he's running at 76%. in the ninth he's running at 62%. here's where he runs into trouble. the depth district for two different reasons. you see this straddles brooklyn and manhattan. this dribbistrict has a lornlg orthodox jewish district that votes as a bloc, looks like that bloc went with ted cruz. the moderates went with john kasich. donald trump is winning but he's under 50% in the tenth district.

that would cost him a delegate in that holds. an absolute route in statin oy land in the 11th. the silk staten island. on the upper east side, that district right now, donald trump is losing. ted cruz is winning the 12th district right now. a lot of that vote is in. donald trump could lose two delegates if that holds. the 13th, donald trump is barely above 50%. if he hangs on, he'll get all three. the 14th is looking good, the 15th and 16th is looking good. 36 delegates at stake in districts that touch new york city. if everything holds, as we're looking at it right now, donald trump gets 33 of those 36. there's a little bit of wiggle room there, but looking like a big score for him for new york city. >> let it be noted if john kasich does get one delegate in manhattan or one of the northern suburbs, am i right that that would be the first delegate that john kasich has won since he won ohio? >> since winning ohio.

although i should say, if that holds, he would get two delegates for winning the 12th. but the first since he won his home state. >> thank you, steve. >> steve kornacki at the board with the congressional district by congressional district deconstruction of the state of new york. quickly back to the sheraton times square. we have an update that trump has exceeded 50%. that is -- >> statewide. >> from our political desk, statewide. >> that means that the 14 at-large delegates in new york state will all go to donald trump, neither ted cruz nor john kasich will have a shot at those, no matter what they get. that means that all of the remaining delegates, the only question is whether or not congressional district by congressional district, donald trump gets 50 plus percent in each of those 27 districts, which gives him all three delegates. if nobody gets 51% in an individual congressional district, they then divide them among any candidate that gets

20% or more. >> that is why we were doing the deconstruction regarding those districts around new york city. those of you watching in the american west, where they have vast open spaces with a single congressional district, it gets a little crowded out here in the east, where the population density changes. last we ducked into the hillary clinton event at the sheraton times square, they were singing the national anthem. presumably there's going to be a speaker or two before we hear from the secretary. >> on the new york democratic side, one thing to, i think, keep in mind here is that senator sanders had his largest-ever campaign rally, at least the campaign says it was the biggest rally they had, anywhere in the country, for this entire race. they had some huge rallies. they say they beat 28,000, their previous record from portland, oregon, from way back in august. i think they made a big deal out of that. not only because they wanted to

say they had a big crowd, but they wanted to say they had a big crowd now. they want to create the impression that the enthusiasm for bernie sanders is as big as it ever was. and crowd size definitely shows that. that said, crowds are not necessarily voters. hillary clinton beat barack obama in the new york primary in 2008 by a 17-point margin. that's after he was able to turn out crowds of greater than 20,000 people at some new york rallies. so some of that is about the restrictive voting rules, i think, in new york. you can't -- if you get enthused by a candidate's campaign, you can't register same day. you can't convert your party registration so you can get into the democratic primary or the republican primary. they make it very, very hard to vote here. that means that momentum here can sort of be used in other states, but you can't capitalize on it to try to win this state once you're somebody else that's out to an early lead. >> let's go over to clinton headquarters. kristen welker, our correspondent, who's been covering hillary clinton, and

we're happy to see this. former new york city mayor, david dinkins -- >> he looks great. >> -- who had a real bout of very touch-and-go health problems is back up and at 'em. kristen, what are you hearing from the campaign? >> reporter: well, first of all, brian, they are thrilled by this victory. it looks as though they are poised to have that double-digit margin. i have to tell you, the crowd tonight has been erupting every few minutes into cheers. this is the most excited i have heard a clinton crowd. you can hear them right now. i've been at a number of these victory parties, as you well know. this has to be the most electric i have ever heard one of her crowds. the reason, this is a major turning point. we talk about some of the turning points of this race. nevada was one of them. march 15th was one of them, when she swept a number of states. tonight is a number of significant turning point. that is because if she does, in fact, come away with a double-digit win here, if these numbers hold, as we've been reporting all night, it would be

very difficult for senator sanders to come back and clinch the nomination. i have been talking extensively to clinton campaign officials, throughout the day, about that very point you were just discussing with chris matthews. what happens to all of those younger voters? those sanders' supporters. i can tell you that the clinton campaign, if and when she does clinch the nomination, are expecting senator sanders, not only to endorse her, but to vigorously try to bring his supporters over to her side. to campaign for her. they expect him to behave in the same way that she did, back in 2008, with then senator barack obama, when she was so fundamental and important to bringing her supporters over to senator obama's side, back in 2008. so, the clinton campaign, looking forward to what we are anticipating will be a very energized, robust speech from secretary clinton, when she takes the podium. i expect that will happen fairly soon. brian? >> kristen, thanks. we're told there are two more

introductions to come and we will, of course, bring you -- >> making the most of it. >> -- secretary clinton's remarks live when they happen. two more things to show you, starting with the skyline of new york. and our assumption was correct. we started off red, white, and blue. when the state was called for donald trump on the republican side it went all red and now it is glowing all blue. the empire state building, which as chris matthews pointed out, depths of the depression, was built a little over one year from basement to spire, one of the great architecture and construction achievements of all time. as some would also say, describes tonight's new york primary victory. the other big story we are covering, and that is the first call of the night on the left, donald trump for the republicans. and now the projected winner on the right. two new yorkers, one homegrown, the other an adopted new yorker. both claiming victory tonight. we are counting down to hearing from secretary clinton. we'll take one more break. our coverage of the

still-developing night of the new york primary continues right after this.

10:00 p.m. eastern time, 7:00 on the west coast. this happened an hour ago. the instant polls closed, our election unit called new york, projected it for donald trump. there is the finishing order