so hurry in before it ends! ♪ i'm chris matthews in washington. in the next hour, we expect to hear from both presidential front-runners. donald trump is set to start his rally any minute now, could be ten minutes, actually. and hillary clinton will begin her event in west virginia a bit later. indiana votes tomorrow and a win for trump there could mean the end of this stop trump movement. anyway, ted cruz included. anyway, earlier today, trump spoke to a crowd of protesters and even debated a trump supporter while everyone watched. we'll show you that. pretty sizzling. along with his interview with hallie jackson. our teams are reporters in indiana right now.

kasie hunt with the stop trump movement in indianapolis. jacob rascon is in carmel, where trum trump's due to speak. donald trump is now taking the stage in carmel, indiana. let's listen to that. ♪ not yet. first, ted cruz has been barn-storming indiana. jacob rascon joins us right now. we got mixed signals there. tell me about this rally that's coming up here. >> reporter: yeah, so inside we have a smaller venue, about 1,600 people fit inside. some people who wanted to get in, aren't going to get in. we expect him to take the stage and say what he's been saying the last couple days. if he wins indiana, it's over. he's said that many times with many other states, but this time, it may be accurate. if he wins by double-digits, as our poll suggests, it's a

cakewalk path to 1,237, according to an nbc news analysis of the numbers which shows that he could even get shut out of indiana and still have a path to 1,237. so he wants to focus on hillary clinton. we know that he had lunch today, for example, with ed klein, who is known for his books against the clintons with rumors about the clintons, some of which have been discredited. he's already looking ahead. he wants to pick up the dirt and throw it at her. he's already been trying to get crooked hillary to stick and we expect him again in 10 or 15 minutes where he hopes to finish it off really in indiana. chris? >> yeah, jacob, it seems like indiana is a fairly good bow wether. among the republican electorate. >> reporter: i think the stop trump movement wanted another wisconsin. and you had the endorsement of the governor, but it was different here, it wasn't as strong. but then you don't have talk

radio. i've been listening to the radio all day and you don't have a big stop trump movement really on the airwaves. there's almost an inevitability when they talk about trump. how are we gonna make this work? how are we going to get over the unfavorability with women? you don't really hear the stop trump like you did in wisconsin and a lot of other places? >> let's go to kasie hunt and find out how that movement is going. kasie? >> reporter: not well, to be blunt about it, chris. this, of course, a key part of the stop trump movement, winning here in indiana. in their ideal world, they would have won here in indiana, gone on to california. they would have picked off enough of the districts there. they would have probably won nebraska on their way to california, and then they would have gone to a fight on the convention floor. and all of those things seem to just be falling apart. it does not look as though ted cruz is going to be able to pull out a win in indiana.

we could be surprised and many people i've spoken to think it will be closer than the 15-point spread the nbc news poll showed publicly. but it doesn't look like he's on his way to victory here. the stop trump groups are running out of money. competing in california is extraordinarily expensive and their donors are starting to say, you know what, we really don't see a path. then there's the convention, and that requires a significant backbone, either changing the rules, or wrangling these delegates who are increasingly looking like they want to back a winner, at least show that they're not, you know, they're willing to get on board with donald trump if he is going to be at the top of the ticket. they're folding in many ways. there are operatives in d.c. you never would have expected to be willing to go to work for trump, polishing their resumes, thinking the trump campaign is probably going to be the only game in town. i will say, chris, there's still some angst around the convention itself, and some questions about how things might play out.

of course corporate sponsors potentially not giving money because of the inflammatory statements donald trump has made. but i had one person say to me today, at what point if trump does get this nomination, and the party is fighting its way through a convention, that the senators don't show up, at what point does reince priebus start to look like baghdad bob? so that was a stark comparison from the stop trump folks today, chris. >> that was the guy in baghdad, part of the saddam hussein administration who kept saying, we're winning this war even as the administration was falling. what do you think the future is of the stop trump movement? >> i'm not sure they have much of a future. i think they woke up and discovered that it was trump who has the movement behind them. more and more every day, we're starting to realize that stop

trump, quote/unquote, is really a collection of people who feel very strongly, but have never been able to get unified on the same page. i do think, one major question, you saw it with charles coke, who said maybe hillary clinton would be a better pick. >> it was startling. >> it was. but that's who you think of when you think of people who want to stop trump. business leaders. keep in mind, what's animating trump and sanders, this wealth and equality gap, struggling to get by. those donors are funding what little efforts there have been so far to explicitly stop trump. but they're the same people who invested millions in right to rise. jeb bush's super pac, for example. and they feel like, okay, i gave you $10 million, and you didn't

do anything with it. how is this going to help me this time? i think they're between a rock and a hard place on that. >> thanks so much, kasie hunt. let's bring in jane newton small, washington correspondent for "time" magazine. and rick tyler with me, msnbc political analyst as well. and former senior communications adviser for the ted cruz campaign. rick, you're here and i'm not sure, i was watching -- or listening all day to your candidate -- your former candidate cruz. and watching him struggling to try to justify his continued existence as a candidate. it's tough. >> and it's going to continue to be tough. he said he'll be in it for the long haul. he said the one message going for him, trump is still mathematically ineligible to win the nomination. in previous candidacies, the candidate had sewn up the nomination.

so he can keep saying trump is ineligible, that he's mathematically ineligible. yesterday in virginia, cruz swept the delegates. trump only got three in arizona, he swept the delegates there. so they have a real chance on a second ballot. i think they really want to hang on and -- >> let me bring in john. i was impressed with trump's success with non-committed delegates in pennsylvania. he gobbled them up except for two or three. >> trump finally has an operation focused on some of these things behind paul manafort and established consultants who have come in, who are trying to work that side of it. again, the point you made a second ago is really the relevant point. donald trump gets to 1,237 by june 8th, who's on the slate and what do they do on the second

ballot, all of it will be irrelevant. trump is a glide path to get to 1,237 by the time california finishes voting on june 7th and we wake up on june 8th. all of the inside game that cruz has played really well in terms of this delegate wrangling stuff, all of it will be irrelevant on june 8 if trump stays on the path he's on. >> did you notice the piece in "the times" today, there has been in resignation that's overcome the party and the mistake by the cruz people is, yeah, you can be the last opponent standing, of course. but the trouble with that strategy, by the time you're the last opponent standing, there will be so much momentum for the front-runner, it won't mean anything. what did you think? >> i think that's right. maybe a month ago we had a conversation about whenever there's a stop anyone movement -- >> it was nixon's words. >> there's never been a really

clear strategy, a really clear set of tactics, a really clear set of backers, or a really clear champion, someone who is a popular champion, someone who everyone can rally around, for the never trump movement. once trump got the head of steam, starting in new york and winning in the fashion he did last week, you could sort of imagine that there will be some hold-outs. there are going to be some members of the establishments, some intellectuals, elected officials. maybe they won't show up at the convention in cleveland, but the professional class of republicans, who still want to get paid, who want to work on 2016 campaign. who don't want to take a stand based on totally on principle, but want to try to make the best of things, the accommodationist folks in the party, that they were going to start to fall in line and that's what jeremy's piece captures what's happening now and i think it's going to happen dramatically and visibly on wednesday, if trump wins tomorrow in indiana in a big

way. >> jane, i love that reference to intellectuals in the republican party. that's a phrase we haven't heard in a long time. republicans obviously have a lot of ideological people. they have people that are high up like george will. you read the papers and the columnists are resistant to the charms of donald trump. they just are. i wonder where they're going to be come july when they have to write about this convention, this republican victory, apparently for trump. >> absolutely. chris, you see a lot of the op-ed page, republicans still resistant on the idea of trump, peggy noonan, george will, david brooks from "the new york times." these are folks who dislike his candidacy. they don't think that he has the chops to be president. they say it's scary, what kind of foreign policy he might have, might be more of a bully. and i think a lot of them and a lot of the stop trump movement ends up really starting to look more down ballot and saying, we'll turn this into a save the

senate movement and not talk about what's on the ticket. we're not going to say good things, wor bad things. we'll just pretend it's not happening and focus everything we have on the seven senate seats that are vulnerable, and we'll throw all of our effort into writing about pennsylvania and new hampshire and indiana and ohio and all of those states. >> rick, i have to ask you about something. this is really in the area of biblical interpretation here. the funny thing is, a lot of liberals that we talk to over the place, all think trump's a bully. a bully and a warmonger of some sort. but you talk to conservatives who are concerned about middle east politics, they think he's going to sell out israel. i heard cruz saying that today. he's a bully with regard to everything except the middle east. how do you figure that out? >> i really think donald trump talks like a bully, but i don't think he acts like a bully. my fear is he becomes a candidate that tries to out-left hillary, that is, i want these

things and donald trump says i'm going to give you that and more. >> you think so? you think he's a liberal? >> he's certainly not a conservative. he's an interloper to the republican party and to his credit, but these folks who are supporting him really aren't conservative. i agree with what jay just said, but the top of the ticket is the driving force of the campaign, and every one of those candidates who would like nothing to do with donald trump if they choose to go that route will have a microphone in their face, reacting to the latest thing donald trump said today. >> they can run, but they can't hide, as joe lewis once said, the great boxer. there's always the problem of saying, i'm not that kind of republican. it's a hard thing to sell. we'll be right back with more. we're waiting for donald trump to take the stand right there we're watching.

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let's go back to carmel, indiana and jacob rascon who is part of our awaiting team for donald trump. jacob, give us a sense of who is at the mike right now, who is at the podium, and who's been warming them up for donald trump. >> reporter: it's the strangest thing, he just took the stage and didn't introduce himself. the person before him, one of trump's advisers said, i'm going to bring somebody very special on the stage and then he left and this person came up, he didn't introduce himself. i'm not sure who he is and i don't know that the crowd does. they didn't jump up and down and clap or do anything special when he came out. so i'm just waiting to hear his name, but he hasn't said it so far, chris. this is a crowd of -- this is an interesting venue, because

usually the trump crowd is standi standi standing up. right now they're sitting. seats about 1,600 people, not an overwhelming crowd and not a lot of people waiting outside. >> let's go to jane now. when it "time" magazine, i know you're still a magazine, it's called "time," but not magazine. it's on all the digital platforms. when are you guys going to sew this up and say donald trump is the nominee of the republican party? >> well, we already had a magazine not too long ago that said "how trump won," so i'm thinking we might have already have done that, got a little ahead of ourselves. but thi but i think we're not far away from when it becomes inevitable, whether it's with the establishment and the last couple of weeks in washington, and frankly, if he really blows out indiana, mathematically

speaking, i don't see how you can deny him the nomination. he's getting so close to 1,237. if he doesn't actually get to 1,237, he'll be so close, he'll have all the momentum going into the convention. and his own people are sort of saying, if you deny him at the convention, they're preparing a sort of ground game, bringing in supporters, getting them housing in cleveland and -- basically saying, if we don't get this, we'll have riots in the street. we're going to create this movement. they're making it increasingly difficult to deny him the nomination at this point. >> seems like there's four positions you can take. one, you don't have any idea why people are voting for him. the other is, they know why people are voting for him. and then do you like the guy or don't you. do you understand why he's getting the votes? do you get it? >> i get it. i understand why he's the nominee. he represents this very

passionate anti-establishment wing of the republican party where they've elected three successive congresss of republican tea party candidates who have promised them repeal of obamacare, repeal of dodd-frank, the impeachment of obama, and it's never happened. they want to see change. they want to see tangible change, and he's harnessing that passion and frustration with washington. and he's also benefitting, frankly from a divided establishment. so up until essentially florida and new york, really the new york vote, which is the first primary where he got more than 50% of the vote, that divided the establishment up there. >> well said, i love reading and i love listening to you. here he is, donald trump, in carmel, indiana, taking the stage. ♪ start me up i never stop ♪ start me up ♪ you got to start me up

♪ i never stop ♪ i've been running hot >> oh, thank you, thank you. that's so beautiful. thank you. [ cheers and applause ] >> thank you, folks. that's so nice. i have to tell you, i have to thank fred the hammer. he wouldn't be allowed to play in the nfl today. he hits too hard, you know. see we're all getting softer, you understand. and our country's getting softer. but i'll tell you what, that was the good old days. so fred, get over here for a second. that was so nice. i love people that hit hard. we need people that hit hard. come here. [ applause ] [ cheers and applause ] >> he was a hitter.

he was a hitter. >> you know, after one or two hits, they sort of said, i don't want to catch the ball anymore, right? and a really amazing guy. somebody that bobby knight has so much respect for. he said, you play this guy, it's brutal, always. it was always tough. coach katie, come on out, come here. coach, come on over. [ cheers and applause ] >> what a great man and a great family. i just met his wife and she's incredible. we've had so much support. so i just got a call, lou holtz just endorsed us. so lou, lou is another one. what incredible people.

such spirit. and you know, i love that you people -- but sit down, we'll stay with each other for a long time. sit down. so nice. so often i'll say sit down, they just refuse. this is a beautiful place, by the way, it's nice. [ applause ] we've had this response all over. no matter where we go in the country. we go to dallas, we go to alabama, we had 35,000 in alabama. the other night, we had 31,000 in los angeles, near the los angeles area. we were all over, and they were burning the american flag, okay? you told me, okay? not inside. inside it was a love fest. we had 31,000 people, it was incredible. but outside, they burned the american flag, and they held up other flags from other countries. and i want to tell you, that's not what we're about. we're go to take good care of everyone, but it's america first now folks. it's america first. just remember that. just remember that.

[ applause ] you know, i watch television, there was a group of people, i don't even know, because i'm doing another one of these at 7:00, i've been doing them all. but i love doing them. a friend of mine, very, very -- i love doing them, but a friend of mine, a very successful guy came with me to one, i had 24,000, 25,000 in tampa, tampa florida, and he said, how do you do that? get before these people? i said, you know, honestly -- this guy is really a great guy, successful. he's rich, but he's a nice guy. most rich aren't so nice, but that's okay. but we still want them negotiating our trade deals for us, not these political hacks, believe me. believe me. so he said, how do you do that with so many people? i said, you know, honestly, you get before them and it's like we're all in love, we're just going to straighten out this country, we love our country, we love each other and our rallies

are the safest place you can be on earth. you don't hear that, but our rallies are safe and beautiful, and there's love in the room and it's so easy to speak when you have that kind of love in the room, whether i'm in a place like this, or an arena, no matter where you are, we want to make america great again. and i said to him, it's so easy to speak. he still didn't believe me, but really it is. so i appreciate you all being here, thank you, and i really appreciate indiana. i really appreciate indiana. but there was a tremendous line and they started assembling, and it was on fox, and it was all of them, cnn. but it was a huge line, and i'm not sure, it might be for the 7:00 speech, but it was this tremendous line, and they met a few young guys that were definitely -- it was cruz. oh, this guy, the lie -- that's why we call him lying ted. we call him lying ted.

did you know that donald trump wants to raise your taxes by 40%? and the guy is saying, no, he doesn't. did you know that he's in favor of obamacare? no, he's not. and when he said it, he meant it. this guy knew. and he actually said, how's your loan doing at goldman sachs? that was, i thought, the coolest. now is that guy here with the sunglasses? i don't know if he's here or 7:00, but whoever he is, i thought he was very cool. i thought him and his friends. because they're not going to be buffaloed by lies. by lies. i wrote down some seveof the th this guy was saying, cruz, unbelievable, that i was going to raise taxes. i have the biggest tax cut of anybody running for office by far. and in fact, if there was one criticism of my tax plan and policy, it was that i lowered taxes too much. and he said -- it's true.

i was the one -- the "wall street journal" said, we cannot afford that much of a tax decrease. and i have cruz saying, he's going to raise your taxes 40%. it's unbelievable. lying ted. it's unbelievable. it's unbelievable. he made a statement that donald trump doesn't intend to build a wall. believe me, folks, we're building the wall. believe me. [ cheers and applause ] we're building the wall. no, we're building the wall. we have no choice. do we have a choice? we have to. [ audience chanting "build that wall" ] >> the loyalty to all of us, you know, i'm sort of just -- i consider myself a messenger. i've been doing this for nine months, these others guys have been doing it for 35 years,

boom, boom, boom, we're knocking them out like corn flakes, right? but honestly, the whole thing, it's a movement that's going on. and i call it a movement to competence. it's like getting into a great school. often if you apply to harvard or the warton school of finance, or stanford, it's really hard to get in, but once you're there, it's okay, it's much easier. it's hard here to do what we're doing, but we have a mission altogether. and we're going to straighten it out. we're not going to make deals like have been made with iran, where we're giving $150 billion. we get absolutely nothing. i've been saying it for a long time. you see what's happening in iraq, it's imploding. iran goes in, takes it over, they won't have to fire a shot. they've been doing it for decades and decades and decades. you won't have to fire a shot.

we handed it to them. we should have never been there, shouldn't have gotten out the way obama did. takes everybody there, and announces the date. the enemy said, there's no way he's moving that day. turns out he was right. that's why we have to be unpredictable. you know, they'll ask me sometimes -- [ applause ] we've gotta be unpredictable. we are so totally predictable, and it's so embarrassing. no matter what happens, i mean, it's so embarrassing. and what we're going to do, we're going to go out and we're going to make our country so great again. and it's not going to be -- we're not going to be embarrassed anymore by what happens. we're not going to be embarrassed that our ten sailors get captured, get treated like hostages, like prisoners. and the only reason they gave them back -- now, with me, they would have given them back. with me, they would have not taken them. believe me, they would not have

taken them. but the only reason we got them back, because in two days, the money was supposed to start flowing into iran. and you look at what's happening, and you look at how sad it is, and that we didn't get our prisoners, the original four, and there's actually another one over there, by the way, that no one even talks about, but we didn't get our four prisoners back before we started negotiating years ago is a disgrace. we should never negotiate under circumstances like that. never. [ applause ] never! so i mark down some of the things, you know, we have two people left. one is kasich, nice guy. now, they made this stupid deal. anybody in business would not have made the deal. and by the way, since making the deal, their numbers tanked. it was stupid. it's politicians making deals. they're politicians, they're making deals. i mean, how stupid is this deal? and while i assume that it was

inked, i still say before the ink was dry, it was violated by both parties. politicians, this is what we have, these are the people that negotiate for us. these are the people that are giving away trillions and trillions of dollars. this is why we have deficits that are $19 trillion and it's going to be $21 trillion very soon, with that really dumb omnibus budget. and you look at what happened with that. then he picks carly. carly is perfectly nice. by the way, she fell off the stage the other day, did anybody see that? and cruz didn't do anything. even i would have helped her, okay? no, it's true. [ cheers and applause ] it's the weirdest thing. they just showed it to me coming in, i said, no, i didn't see it. i said, wow, that's really cruel. she just went down. she went down a long way, right?

and she went down right in front of him and he was talking, he kept talking. hoe looked like -- that was a weird deal. man! and then they were both talking. she was talking from the back and he was talking from there. they both talking. weird. but that was unnecessary, and it was a bad thing to do. and i said, he set a record. first candidate in the history of this country who has no path to victory, who can't win, and he picked a vice presidential candidate. that's hard. and you've got to give her credit for accepting it, she said i'll accept it, even though there's no chance of winning. it's a weird deal. but you have so many different things, and i love seeing all of those people in line. and they were there from 6:00, fox and cnn, they're all saying from 6:00 in the morning, all that big line, that big, huge line. thousands and thousands of people. and even here, there are thousands of people outside that

wanted to get in. you people know real estate a little bit better. congratulations, look at the people in the front row. pretty good, right? pretty good. pred pretty good. but i look at the difficulty of politics, i've been doing this for a fairly short period of time. i've never seen lying and deception, and all of the things like this. i've been in business and they're no angels, and frankly they're much tougher people. business is tougher. and again, they're not the greatest. you got good ones, you got bad ones, like everything else. but i've never seen lying and deception like you see in politics. it's terrible. it's terrible. it's really terrible. >> there's donald trump, it's familiar remarks, so we'll take a break. he's in carmel, indiana. we'll be back to talk to some experts about what trump is doing right now. we'll be right back. ich control, which control this joystick. no, i'm actually over at the ge booth.

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shoshow me more like this.e. show me "previously watched." what's recommended for me. x1 makes it easy to find what you love. call or go online and switch to x1. only with xfinity. >> we don't want you. >> well, you're entitled to your

view, sir, and i will respect it. >> do the math. you asked kasich to drop out. it's your turn. take your own words. time to drop out. >> when donald doesn't get to 1,237 -- >> donald's going to get to 1,237. he's going to get more than 1,237. >> that's what you have to put up with in politics today, with an average guy saying, you're outta here, why don't you quick, trump will get to 1,237. back with us, jane and rick. i'm going to ask you, how does he do this? how does he maintain himself? because he's in a terrible situation now, fighting for his life, and some guys comes up to his face and basically says, you're a loser. you're a loser. >> i've seen a lot of confrontations like that. that was a little extreme. but you noticed toward the end of the conversation, he's starting to win the guy over. but that's the way --

>> that guy? >> toward the end, he sort of slows down. cruz had an ability to slow down the guy who was asking him the questions, try and engage him in a conversation and i think he really believes if he could just go through the logical train that he's trying to lay out, that he'll agree. a lot of people would say that's a waste of time. but it takes a lot of courage to go and engage voters -- >> i love a politician who will argue with somebody face to face, especially an opponent. probably not you or people like me who have opinions will be occasionally challenged by somebody outside. i like to give them what they want. they want an argument, i'll give them an argument. i said, you want some "hardball," let's talk. it's interesting, the ones with a good heart, we shake hands and walk away. but at least we discuss something important, which is politics. your thoughts? >> yeah, in this case, it was really just tonal, you have to drop out, you're done, we don't

want you, we don't want you. and it wasn't even really about the issues, it was sort of just like, you're it, buddy, you're kinda toast, let's move on. so it was not a very substantive discussion to have, and i think not a very productive one necessarily for ted cruz to have. it would have been better if he had turned it to the issues and said, well here's where i differ from trump, and here's why you should listen to me, here's what's going on, have a substantial debate, rather than stonewalling and saying, it's not possible, i'm going to get it, i have a path here, and that seemed non-productive to his campaign. >> i've had people come up to me and it hasn't been cerebral, where people say, you're on the other side politically, i disagree with you, i don't like you and you're the bad guy, and then you have to deal with that situation, and it isn't exactly intellectual. anyway, we are now going to go to ted cruz. right now? no. bernie sanders right now. let's go to the bernie sanders

campaign. let's go to chris jansing who is covering it. let's go to her right now. >> how you doing, chris? >> i'm great. >> they just wrapped up here. we're in ft. wayne, indiana. short time ago, he had 3,000 people out in evansville. it is rowdy here and he is combative. surprising a lot of people yesterday when he talked about the fact that it was going to be a contested contest, taking it all the way to the convention, after sending all these signals that what he was really looking for was who influence the platform. that was not what we heard at all from him just minutes ago when he went after hillary clinton hard, talked about a rigged system, and you know how this works, chris. he's looking to turn these super delegates. but if you want to look at history, i mean, he is a lot further from where hillary clinton was behind barack obama, back in 2008 when she decided she would going to bow out. but he's going forward, in spite of the fact that his fund raising this past month was down

by 40%. and obviously there are a number of big states coming up that favorite hillary clinton, chris. >> the accepted definition of a contested convention, no candidate arrives with enough delegates to win on the first ballot. what's his definition today, bernie's? >> they say, you go there and the numbers are clear, you need to have about 18% more to be able to get over that hurdle. right now, hillary clinton has about 10% more. so could he potentially go in there and say, she doesn't have the number, yeah, that's possible, but again, how does he get -- the question then becomes, well, how does he get to that number? how does he turn that extraordinary number of not just super delegates to his advantage, but how does he win the number of delegates he needs between now and then. he thinks he's going to do well obviously in places like new

mexico. he thinks he's going to do well in california, how well he's going to in d.c., but he's talked about these things before and not been able to turn these states to his advantage. tomorrow will be very telling, in terms of momentum and fund raising for him. it's about a four-point race according to the nbc poll, within the margin of error. they're looking see if he can pull it out in indiana. >> i've been reading, his notion of a contested convention, which he would like to have, is one in which no candidate, certainly not secretary clinton arrives with enough pledge delegates. they would be relying on super delegates. >> that's right. >> so maybe he could get some back from her and be the winner. pretty logical if you accept his assumptions that he can do this. >> reporter: is it possible? yes. is it likely? it's extremely unlikely, but he

makes the argument there are some states where he won and yet she got all the super delegates. he said, how is that fair? she is also, her campaign will argue, three million votes ahead. very different from what we saw back in 2008 when she was running against barack obama. but could he go to the convention and try to do that? he could. >> chris jansing, whose table i was lucky to share at the white house correspondents dinner saturday night. what a long evening. i've been to 30 of these, i think. and they get longer. and they never ended. everybody was a gazelle compared to me, i said, this is enough. i've seen enough celebrities. i did see helen mirren, though. i thought it was great. >> yes, with her husband taylor hackford, that was cool. >> i didn't know she had a husband. anyway, thank you. obviously you -- >> her husband is a great, famous director, chris. >> okay. >> imd shocked. >> chris is a movie buff. >> but i do not know all things.

you're ahead of me on this. thanks, chris jansing. steve, i have to say something before we start. i have a rule about political shows, it goes way back to the first days of the mclaughlin group. people watch, they like a little entertainment factor, the fun of it. but they want to learn something about their country and its politics. and you always teach me. i always learn from you. >> wow. >> and that is called -- that's really what is the substance of what we do. everything else is accidental. that's the key to what we do, teaching. we are teachers, that's our business and you're great. so take over. >> wow, thank you. >> i mean it. >> i'm dressed like a teacher today, i guess. >> certain kinda schools, but ga ahead. >> we'll ul call it the most important number of the day, i think this is the number that explains what's happening on the republican side and what the stop trump movement missed. the number is 61. what is 61? 61 is in our latest nbc

news/"wall street journal" poll, the percentage of republicans who say they could see themselves maybe supporting donald trump for their party's nomination. remember, this is important because the line that you keep hearing from ted cruz and from the stop trump movement is, in these states where trump gets 35% of the vote, 40%, 45%, they say the key there is more than 50% aren't voting for him. they say it's a block that's not going to move. if you're not voting for trump now, you're never going to vote for trump for the republican nomination, that's what they've been saying. but this is the number we've been seeing in our poll now for a while. over 60% of republicans saying, yeah, you know what, i could see myself voting for him. i may not be doing it now, but i could see it. and how is this playing out in indiana? it's playing out in two ways. this is our new poll for indiana. and you see trump is ahead by 15 points here. this is significant because indiana was supposed to be dead even. so that tells you that trump is picking up in the last couple weeks, he's starting to pick up some of the voters who weren't

with him to start with, but who know are jumping on the bandwagon. so it's created distance. but it's also significant because of this. there's that deal that ted cruz struck with john kasich, where kasich gets out of indiana, gives cruz the one-on-one he's looking for. so if the stop trump movement's theory was correct, if you weren't for trump to begin with, you're never going to be for him. so if you take kasich out of it, they should go to ted cruz and it would be a dead even race. and yet, when we take kasich out of the race, trump goes over 50%, trump gets a chunk of them too. that's the key here, the ceiling for trump on the republican side, for all of this year, as he's won all of these states and the stop trump movement have said, 60% haven't voted for him, the ceiling has always been well over 50%. it's over 60% and i think that's what we're starting to see.

a lot of the softer voters are seeing him, the numbers and saying, time for me to get on board. >> thanks so much. everybody should stay tuned until 5:00 tonight, to watch steve. he's going to be substituting for chuck tonight on "mtp daily" and he'll be the host and give you a lot more information at 5:00 tonight yujust in a few minutes. you stay up. you listen. you laugh. you worry. you do whatever it takes to take care of your family. and when it's time to plan for your family's future,

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donald trump's campaign says it's ready to sue, as the battle for delegates moves to arizona.

cruz nearly swept trump in delegates during the arizona state convention over this weekend, despite trump winning the state by more than 20 points. i can see why trump is upset here. joining me now, ari melber. so here's a case where trump won the popular vote but is losing the delegate fight. explain how that can happen. >> you still have selection ever the actual people who will be delegates. we can put up the numbers. trump dominated in arizona, 47 points. he won the 58 delegates. they'll vote for him on the first ballot automatically. cruz did well organizing the people to fill those slots, which means if there's multiple balloting, they would presumably move away from trump, that has his supporters in the state upset. >> i don't think there's any question that this is an example of mr. trump's delegates somehow

being given to mr. cruz. >> the people of arizona got cheated. i got cheated. and the trump delegates got cheated. >> the governor, jan brewer there, complaining. she also said it's one of the first times she's lost an election in many years. i spoke to paul manafort who works for trump, over the weekend. and he said they expect to lock it up outright. they have a huge delegate lead and expect to do well tomorrow in indiana. but he told me, they are preserving the right to make challenges, because he told me if they're short of 1,237 when this is all over, they want to go through the process at the n rnc and wrest back delegates in necessary. >> is that in the credentials committee, before the convention has its first meeting? >> bingo. you have a contest and the credentials committee, and they do that in the days leading up

to the convention. manafort said we expect to win, we're optimistic. you've heard that many times. but two, he was saying, we're ready to go, we're ready to get in there, because they think they have a couple of states where they could make a good challenge. >> the good thing is, if you like popular elections, trump was able to hold the pennsylvania delegates and they'll be with him on the first ballot. they're unbound delegates. to me, that seems more significant. that trump's able to get the delegates he needs to the first ballot, as you were saying. >> exactly. and we in the political unit called every uncommitted delegate in pennsylvania, the overwhelming number of them said they were for trump. not only that, some of them told us they were listed on the cruz slate even though they weren't for cruz. they were just uncommitted. so there was desperation in pennsylvania. the question is, is he over 1,237 on bound or including the unbound?

the party could still make him prove it in cleveland. >> i get the feeling after listening to you and the experts, this we're in a situation like we were after the florida recount in 2000. we need reform, some sort pattern where voters know their vote will count and there won't be a mismatch between them and who gets the nomination. i guess neither party wants to be clean. thank you, ari. >> hello, chris, marks closing lower to the weekend. dow rising by 117 points. s&p up by 16. the nasdaq gaining 42 points. that's it from cnbc, first in business worldwide. except that managing my symptoms was all i was doing. and when i finally told my doctor, he said humira is for adults like me who have tried other medications but still experience the symptoms of moderate to severe crohn's disease. and that in clinical studies, the majority of patients on humira

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it's one day ahead of the indiana primary, that's tomorrow. the issue of jobs is key. 2,100 people will lose their jobs when a carrier plant in indianapolis closes and moves its operations to mexico. the move has been a focus for both parties and donald trump. nbc's ron mott is outside the carrier plant right now this afternoon. ron? >> reporter: hey there, chris. it's about 5:00 now. they've got a shift change coming. so you'll see some of the first shift leaving, second shift already in the building. these folks are going to start losing their job beginning next year. the plant expected to close down for good in 2019. as you mentioned, these jobs are going down to mexico. trying to replace these jobs will be tough. there's a fancy new building next door, it's an amazon center, and those folks are

making 25 to 30% less. and donald trump saw an opportunity, once he found out that this plant was closing, made it part of his regular stump speech. here's what he had to say this morning, had a sympathetic ear or two in the audience. listen. >> i hope indiana remembers this, and this wasn't done for indiana. i just thought it was terrible. carrier air conditioner from indianapolis, right, they left and they had some upper mid-level management guy, pretty viciously fire 1,400 great people. anybody from carrier? we love you. do you like trump? how long have you worked for carrier? 10 years. how about you? 17 years. all right. stick with me, fellas. don't worry. >> all right, so the plant closing in 2019. no word about negotiations with

company officials to try to keep that plant here. bernie sanders got their endorsement, couple of them. >> terrible to lose highly skilled jobs. why are we doing it? that does it for us. "mtp daily" starts right now with steve kornacki. there he is. if it's monday, in the land of the indy 500, donald trump looks to be in cruise control. and the stop trump pace car has no gas and four flat tires. this is "mtp daily" and it starts right now. ♪ ♪ good evening, i'm steve kornacki in for chuck todd. welcome to "mtp daily." it is a tale of two campaigns on the trail toda