♪ good evening, i'm chuck todd, welcome to "mtp daily." we begin tonight with donald trump. he's just moments away from actually locking up this contest. why? you'll see in a minute. he won big in indiana and it forced ted cruz to exit the race. right now, we have live pictures of a podium in columbus, ohio, where at any moment, governor john kasich will formally announce he too is leaving this race. clearing the way for what is now an uncontested march to the nomination for donald trump. unless jim gilmore is still in this race. we will bring you the john kasich official announcement when it begins. let me check in with hallie jackson. she's in columbus, where we expect john kasich any minute now. we saw that he drove up. we assume they're running somewhat on time. what can you tell us about any conversations, for instance,

governor kasich has had with donald trump? >> reporter: he hasn't had any according to kelly o'donnell's reporting. he's not spoken with anybody in the republican national committee, according to a high level source within the party. kasich today has had really an extraordinary 12 to 18 hours, as early as -- most recently as last night, this morning, he was convinced he would stay in the race. his campaign was talking about taking the fight against donald trump all the way to a contested convention. but i'm told kasich woke up this morning and simply changed his mind, his heart wasn't in it. after conversations with his campaign, he made the decision not to head to washington. but instead to come here to columbus. he lives just in the suburbs outside here. this location a fitting end for his campaign. >> all right, hallie. he obviously has to go back to his day job, something he hasn't done in quite some time. do we know yet if he's going to endorse trump during this

speech? >> reporter: it's unclear whether he will do that. that's one of the first questions he will be asked, whether he will support trump now that it looks like trump is the nominee. just to give you a sense, in the room, members of the media, and the line of cameras where we are, and then behind, couple hundred loyalists, folks loyal to kasich for a long time. couple of top staffers who have traveled here as well. as for the vp speculation, sources are saying there's no way kasich would consider to be trump's vice president. that's what he's saying today. >> i know you have to get ready to listen to the governor. let me bring in peter alexander, who broke the story that kasich and cruz met privately in san francisco last saturday and it was after that meeting that kasich's team started soliciting outside pinput about the governor's chances going

forward. what does that mean? >> i think it means the impression they got from the private conversation, just four people in the room they got the sense from that conversation with ted cruz that if he lost in indiana, he would be out of the race, and kasich and his aides wanted to figure out, what exactly did that mean for them? would there be a viable path forward? it's clear they were going back and forth on the course of the last several days of what they should do. the decision was ultimately made this morning. but to give you a sense of how down to the wire this went today, chuck, john kasich was on the plane, boarded the flight to dulles airport today. the pilots closed the door behind them while the conversation with kasich and his aides said, this isn't going to happen. they got off the plane. the conversation continued in a conference room before sources

close to the candidate told me, his heart wasn't in it. he didn't feel comfortable coming to the washington, d.c. area to raise more money only to tell those supporters and donors a couple weeks from now that his path was essentially finished. >> what you're describing sounds frankly very much like the john kasich we've all been covering for 20 or so years. anyway, peter, i know you're going to be watching this, thank you very much. let me bring in a couple people. republican strategist alex castellanos, he has advised plenty of presidential campaigns. and my mother always said, make sure you say castellanos. don't pronounce the ls. >> that's the right way to do it. and i've been called much worse. >> and ron fournier of the national journal. it did strike me this fact, he still has to govern ohio for the next couple years.

there's a point where if you stay in too long, you become the laughing stock. and you want still want to have credibility when you govern a significant state like ohio. >> you do. and kasich leads with his heart. he is the guy we've known 20 years. >> that whole storiy rings so true. of course he got to the plane and said, what am i doing? >> that's him. it's a tough job. trump is right when he's talking about this. the guy's put it all on the line. here's someone who did risk at this point making himself a little bit of an -- putting himself in an embarrassing situation. when you're a political leader and nobody's following you, you're just a guy out for a walk alone. and that's what he was beginning to look like. i think this preserves some options for him down the road. a lot of people are beginning to think, what's the world going to look like in four years? >> i have to say, though, i am surprised with the speed with which the party is uniting around trump. i think we all thought, ron, that this was going to be more

difficult from him. i saw a report from susan colinson that said, i just want to know he's not going to insult people anymore. >> i'm not surprised. we're in an era of binary politics, you're for me or against me. very few independent thinkers out there. few people thinking outside the box. so we see this happening with the democratic party and it's going to happen in the republican party. >> but also, nothing much has changed about how we understand donald trump in the last month, but yet he's gone from 35% to 50 and 60%. >> why is that? >> the voters are coming home. >> the voters have resigned themselves to this. they look down the road and see a big wreck. they don't want to be in that wreck, and that has worked its way all the way back up -- >> the followers are leading the leaders in the republican party right now. >> what does this mean for his veepstakes search? does this widen the list? >> the closer he gets to the convention, i think so.

[ applause ] >> all right, let's turn it over to the governor of ohio with his expected announcement of withdrawal of his presidential candidacy. [ cheers and applause ] >> wow. thank you all for coming. of course the first thing i have to do is to thank my great wife karen for the fact that she has -- [ applause ] -- she has endured by political career and also, of course, accentuated it. there's nobody like karen. she's charismatic. she walks into a room and people

fall in love with her. you know, when she appeared to anderson cooper, john weaver commented and beth hanson commented that if we'd only run karen, we would have been a lot more successful. i happen to agree with that. emanry showed up, and they're just so beautiful. and they've been so supportive. [ applause ] and they've traveled with me around the country as well. and it was always such a delight to have the family on the road and as their principal had said, don't let education get in the way of learning. and i think that they learned a great deal, and of course i want to thank the worthington christian staff and buzz inboden for their patience and

willingness to kind of look after our family. it was terrific. our staff, nobody has ever done more with less in the history of politics than what the staff has done. i mean, it's kinda always been this way. it's been a mystery to me, other than to say that i like to think that they think that they've been part of something bigger than themselves. and we all want to be part of something bigger than ourselves. and i think we do it with honesty and integrity and as a result, i think i know and i sure hope and pray that they feel that this experience that they have had in this campaign has improved them in some way, changed their lives for the better. so i'm looking forward to being able to spend more time with

them. the volunteers, just amazing. i don't know how many. 800 people we had. is it 800 people that went to new hampshire, people who went to michigan, people were in south carolina. i mean, i would show up places and there were people i knew. i'm like, why are you here? and, um, but they were believers, and i could never thank them enough for the long car rides and in the snows of new hampshire, they knocked on doors and in the rain of south carolina, they knocked on doors. they really gave of themselves. my mother used to always say, never forget the volunteers, johnny. and they were always the ones that have given me the octane, the fuel to be able to carry out my purpose. and i want to thank the people who gave the money, the financial resources.

we never had all the money we wanted. we were probably outspent by 50-1. but we were never, ever daunted in that. and we just got up every day and did the best we can, and of course a big thank you goes to beth hanson who was the campaign manager -- [ applause ] -- and did everything that she could possibly do. and my dear, dear friend doug price, who -- [ cheers and applause ] -- well, we start getting into these names, but as i mentioned, i think emma said, well, mr. doug, didn't you travel with my daddy for, like, a year and a half? and reese looked at him and said, how'd you ever do that? [ laughter ] but we had a great time and we're going to have a lot more fun in the future. and of course the kitchen

cabinet i look at joann davidson, and bob caff key and tim trep epy, the only guy i know who carried more luggage than an entire circus crew. it was just unbelievable. and i know i'm leaving some people out, but i want to thank every one of you. you know, i visited these beautiful, beautiful towns in new hampshire. and people had really counted me out in new hampshire, but when we hit our 100th town hall, it was -- it was remarkable. those beautiful towns, i will never forget the people of new hampshire. we moved from new hampshire, you know, in the far east, all the way to the excitement of california. even being able to sit in traffic in los angeles. it was a big part. and i just love california and what it means to our country and the excitement that it breeds. yeah, i remember we were in the

upper peninsula of michigan. never knew where it was. heard about it all my lifetime. i never knew it was located above wisconsin. and we landed and i remember everybody was looking at their phones and i said, would you all please put down your phone. because this is a winter wonderland. this is magical what we're seeing here, what the good lord has given us. to the energy of miami beach, florida, for one of the last debates. you know, it was interesting, they didn't think i could make any debate, and i made all 13 of them. in fact, won a couple of them. as for my beloved ohio, the people here, i cannot tell you how much i appreciate the opportunity that you've given me to be a leader in this state. the people of ohio have given me

the greatest professional experience of my lifetime. i've tried to pay them back. and last night in cleveland a woman, african american woman said, you made promises and you kept them. and that's why i'm here tonight. because i believe in you. that you brought our people together. well, it only happened because the people gave me a chance and everywhere i went in america, everywhere i went in america, i told the people about our beautiful beloved state, and held ohio high. and i think gave people an impression from one end of america to the other, that ohio is a special place. and i expect we're going to have more visits as a result. i marvelled at my colleagues who held public office. they knocked on doors, they made phone calls. these were people who came from the legislature.

i mean, when you're an executive and you have to deal with the legislature, it's not always -- it's not always peaches and cream. but yet these legislators, the leaders, the speaker of the house, the president of the senate, some of my state-wide colleagues like the attorney general, just incredible that they would have come out and honored me. frankly, i was so humbled by the fact that they -- that they came and they -- they loved me. they encouraged me. the people of our country changed me. they changed me with stories of their lives. we all remember that hug in south carolina from that young man who had found despair and

then found hope somehow and he just wanted to give me a hug. and the country marvelled. but you know, that was one of a series of these things that had happened. a gentleman showed up in new hampshire. he said i don't think i've warned my son enough about the dangers of a certain type of cancer and now he has it, and i'm blaming myself. and he put his arm around me and cried. and i said, sir, it's not your fault. you didn't do anything wrong. you're a great father. you come here all the way from new york to tell me about this. take the load off of your shoulders. he wrote us a letter saying that that little conversation made a difference with him. and when we went to new york, months later, standing at the

rope line was that man. he said i want you to know, my son's doing much better. and i wanted to be here to thank you for taking the time with me. we were in a hall in michigan and a woman stood up and showed a picture of her son, who had taken his life. we talked about faith. talked about her son and where he was. and everybody in that hall embraced that woman and made her feel that she was not alone. see, stories like this occurred all across our country. and i think it's frankly because for whatever reason, god gave me

the grace to make people feel safe and comfortable. and they came to these town halls which were -- they were absolutely magic. you know, i've learned something folks, everyone here, that we all need to slow down our lives, slow down our lives and listen to those who are around us. look, let me be clear, we all know that economic growth is imperative to the success of our country. economic growth gives people an opportunity to realize many of their hopes and dreams in life. and without a job, the family is weaker. the community is weaker. the neighborhood's weaker. the state suffers and our country struggles. and i can tell you that economic growth can be achieved by our public officials if they just do their job. but they have to ignore polls.

they can't focus on focus groups. and they have to overcome the fear of re-election or criticism. you see the formula is simple and it works. it is common sense regulations that don't crush our small businesses because that's where our kids get their work now increasingly. that's the fastest area of job growth. we know we need to lower taxes for individuals, and we have to cut taxes for businesses so they start investing in america, and not some country located in europe. and we need a realistic path to balance the budget, and frankly nothing more imperative than a balanced budget amendment to the constitution to force the congress to do their job. and we have to keep in mind that we need to shift power, money and influence from government back to the people wherever we live. and we have to begin to run

america again from the bottom up. however, the spirit, the essence of america lies in the hearts and souls of us. you see, some missed this message. it wasn't sexy. it wasn't a great sound bite. but i saw a young lady. a saw a young lady in philadelphia who came to me and said, i'm a producer on a major cable show, and i watch your town halls and talk about the spirit of our country and my role, and she said, you've affected my life. you see, i believe we all need to live a life bigger than ourselves. yes, we need to live a life

bigger than ourselves. we need to reach out to help someone else, because you know what. it comes to us naturally if we let it. you see, we are, as human beings, kind of hard-wired to want to give someone else a lift, give someone else an opportunity. and when we reach out, it's so interesting, and when we reach out and help someone else, you see what it does, it opens us, ourselves, to recognizing and receiving the help that we need in our lives. it's a virtuous circle, when we help someone else to rise, it opens us up to receive the things that we need in our lives, regardless of who we are. to paraphrase an old adage, i sought the greatness of america in her harbors. and in her rivers. and i did not find it. i sought it in her fertile

fields and boundless forests and did not find it. i sought her greatness in her halls of congress, and i did not find it. you see, after this campaign, i see it in us. when we come together, when we look to one another with our eyes on the horizon. throughout my campaign, i have said the lord may have another purpose for me. and it set all the pundits atwitter. does that mean he's not committed, or he's not focused, or he's not energetic? it showed to some degree how little they understand about life. you see, i have always said that the lord has a purpose for me, as he has for everyone. and as i suspend my campaign

today, i have renewed faith, deeper faith, that the lord will show me the way forward and fulfill the purpose of my life. thank you and god bless. [ applause ] >> well, that was very kasich-like in how he talked about his candidacy and then very abrupt exit. >> did we miss the trump endorsement? >> no. >> yeah we're not there, but we will now officially declare donald trump the presumptive nominee. that's what that moment was about. think about this, ron. so in 11 months, i did some back of the envelope math.

he's bested nine current or former governors, five current or former u.s. seasnators, collectively, 130 years of political experience and it's a guy who has never run for office, really wasn't a member of the republican party until the last -- >> his family wasn't registered as republicans and couldn't vote for him. >> it's a remarkable feat. >> what does it tell you about the state of our politics for this cycle and the cycle after this? >> this may be the start of a trend that we look back on. >> we had a 72-year-old socialist go head to head with a member of the democratic party. >> if he had a good media consultant, he might not have been so successful. >> well, the world has changed. all of a sudden old media, the campaign, the political organization, who needs that when you have this? donald trump understands new media better than anybody. he's a much brighter and smarter

salesman than any of us imagined. >> yeah. >> and he is better for a new world. >> not if you don't like donald trump. look at what he's doing and figure out how you can fill those structures. >> what struck me about the last two people that stayed in until they got out, in kasich and cruz, they were both their own kind of mavericks during their political careers. cruz, much more aggressive and ideologically driven and abrasive to people. john kasich, just as abrasive, but in a different way, in sort of a sometimes meandering way. but they weren't guys you could put in boxes. you would say they're conventional outsiders. and that's maybe why they survived for as long as they did, but they were too kong ventional. >> they were outsiders for a different time. donald trump for as much of a baby boomer he is, he is for this time. he's showing how to run a smart campaign. >> three months ago, you tried

to raise money to stop this guy. >> how did i do? >> you weren't alone. katie packer, i just saw her tweet earlier today, if anybody could find jim gilmore. she had a sense of humor about it. >> one of the biggest obstacles to that, as long as ted cruz was around, a lot of the folks in the republican party and republican contributors figured, what if we do diminish donald trump's chances, then we get him? ted cruz was donald trump's best insurance policy. we tried to talk to folks about, look, maybe this has to be a one-two thing. maybe we have to remove ted cruz from the scene first, create a better alternative to trump, that's the strategy and then fight it out at the end. >> why not do that and get ahead of jeb bush, and he had scott walker there and -- >> it was a too crowded a field. nobody could distinguish themselves. they ran old campaigns, not campaigns for the future.

rubio couldn't catch on. the new generation was not right. >> i think the lesson here, the establishment can't bring down an insurgent candidate the way it could oop. >> mondale stopped gary hart. hillary clinton could not stop barack obama. what changed? there was a leveling of the playing field. the barriers to entry into presidential politics have never been so low. and they'll keep getting lower. >> and on occasion, politics is actually about government and the establishment has failed. one thing has changed. they're selling dog food nobody likes anymore. >> people have never had as much power as they have now and they're just starting to realize it. >> couple things about clinton versus trump, number one. we were discussing this fact. we are going to go backwards generationally for our next president now no matter what. that's something we've done one other time in the modern era, carter to reagan. they still were both basically members of the same generation,

at one end versus the other. >> might be more of a challenge for hillary than for trump. because in a sense, trump is the disruptive candidate. and disruption -- >> the uber candidate. >> you know what hillary did a few months ago. she campaigned against uber, wants to protect us against uber. why? taxi cab unions. >> every poll that you look at shows that right now, millenials if they're forced to choose, they're overwhelmingly democratic. i think this generation coming up, which has the makings of being the next greatest generation isn't going to be happy with either one of these choices, but they'll be forced to choose one. >> and the question i have, these are extreme opposites in how they are running a campaign. she's going to probably emulate obama 2012. it's targeted. it's organized. it's this constituency group in this region of this swing state. he's all gut. she's needs a little bit more gut. he needs a little more

organization and the question is, who learns that faster and better by the fall? >> i don't think hillary clinton has ever run against a candidate with ten arms and eight legs like this. >> he's an octopus. >> he's all over. he tweets at night. he and his secret service detail cross the freeway. this is a very different animal. i think the odds of trump winning this thing are 50/50 or better. she's not a great candidate. he's a terrific salesman. he doesn't have to win millenials, young women, he doesn't have to win minorities. >> wait, wait. >> okay. [ all speak at once ] >> let me explain. he has to keep her from getting them. he's not going to be able -- he's going to have an 80% negative when this is done. she might have 120. he has told us how he runs campaigns. he's going to destroy the guy in front of him. >> and make him just plausible enough. >> many what her unfavorable is

going to be. >> how does he do that without driving up his unfavorables and bringing out her base more? he's going to have to really change the voting populace for this work. in 2013, i wrote a column recommending that she be extremely accessible to reporters, be all over twitter -- >> sent that memo to trump. >> if she did that in a general election, with her credibility and her stature and experience, i don't think he stands a chance. >> what's interesting, in the last two weeks, trump got a little organization and look what it did. you know, organization does mean -- and by the way, yesterday for the first time, she did something spontaneous with the coal miner. and i thought that was one of her best moments. >> they're both learning a little bit. >> and they're both capable of doing that. she's certainly capable of being a really dynamic person in person, showing her human side. >> we're never going to see him pivot. he's going to be the donald trump we've seen. but on occasion, he's going to

give us a glimpse of someone who can be a more serious person on the global stage. >> i don't know how you do that. >> you're outlining interesting math. >> you don't make his math work, you stop her math from working. >> how do you keep african americans and minorities and young people from voting? >> well, with young people, he can cut in, with women he can cut in, the war on women, she has -- you can make a very solid case that that's going to evaporate for hillary clinton. >> that's a lot of ifs there. alex, ron, thank you both. appreciate it. ron, of course, by the way, you've got a best selling book, not just a new book, called "love that boy," be sure to buy it. a lot of you already have. tonight, donald trump will talk live to lester holt on the "nbc nightly news." tune in to your local nbc station. it's live in that moment.

you don't want to miss live donald trump. coming up, president obama just wrapped up his visit to flint, michigan, where he spoke to families and officials about the water crisis there. up next, flint's most fame son, mia filmmaker michael moore will join me. but first the cnbc market wrap. >> we had stocks ending lower for a second straight day. the dow sinking by 99 points, the s&p off by 12, the nasdaq dropping 37 points. shares of tesla are higher after hours, they gave an upbeat production outlook. the stock ended the session lower after the departure of two executives. whole foods is rallying and adp says employers added 156,000 jobs last month, fewer than expected. that's it from cnbc, first in business worldwide. both erectile dysfunction and the urinary symptoms of bph,

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dropping 37 points. that's it from cnbc, first in

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we invest -- uh, can i get some water? >> that was president obama in flint, michigan, today. he met with local residents in the wake of the city's toxic water crisis. the president said filters can make the water safe for most but that a larger systemic issue in the city still needs to be addressed. >> i do think that part of what contributed to this crisis was a broader mind-set. it's an ideology that undervalues the common good. we especially under-invest when the communities that are put at risk are poor. you know, that attitude is as corrosive to our democracy as

the stuff that resulted in lead in your water. >> two weeks ago, criminal charges were filed against three michigan officials in connection to the lead contamination. one of the accused was arraigned today. distribution centers continue to pass out bottled water, but frustration still runs high in the estate. before the president spoke, governor rick snyder made his first comments in flint since the crisis began. and you won't be surprised. he was met with jeers. >> so thank you for the opportunity to come share a few thoughts with you today. and i look forward to the president's comments and again, i thank him. thank you. >> academy award documentary filmmaker and flint native, michael moore joins me now. welcome back, sir. >> thank you, chuck. >> let me get your reaction. you watched the president, saw what he said, saw his remarks.

your reaction? >> i'm glad he went there. i have a lot of respect for president obama. i voted for him twice. i'm very disappointed that he didn't come with specific things that the federal government was gonna do to help the people of flint. they need these pipes and they need this fixed right now. and i think i was last on with you in january. i said that then. >> let me pause for a minute. january. i'm going to check my calendar now. it's may. i'm with you on this, i sort of am -- if this were, i grew up in miami, i was there during hurricane andrew. i guess where's the cavalry is my second question to you and you went right there. you're wondering where the cavalry is. >> yes, of course, because i'm a flint native and the people of flint know that the cavalry is not coming. they've known that for a long time, ever since general motors pulled out of the city. ever since wall street gave it a rating so low nobody could

invest there. so everybody's sort of given up on any hope of somebody coming in, and president obama today came in and had his sleeves rolled up, took the coat off, had the blue collar on, but what we needed were hundreds of army corps of engineers digging up 75,000 pipes. or providing housing for people who no longer want their children poisoned by this water. i saw president obama take a sip of water, making it clear that he believes it's safe if you have the correct filters, and if the filters are installed correctly. i think when you go home tonight, when i go home tonight, i don't think we have to worry about that. no american should have to worry about that. and every person, every scientist involved has said the water is still not safe. there's still poison in this. and it's not fixed. the problem isn't fixed. and president obama comes in and saying, i've got your back, i'm just -- i'm sorry, that's just

not good enough. we need him to first remove the governor or have him arrested or charges filed or something, because the governor went nine months after he knew that the poison was going in the water without telling the people of flint. that's just, right there, a crime. >> why do you think there's a missing sense of urgency at the federal level? >> that's been missing forever. and it's really been missing during the obama years. i mean, what we had all hoped for. look, the guy has done so many great things. it's a long list. but there's been this attitude right from the very beginning of, you know, don't push too hard, don't really go for -- don't say it out loud what needs to be said. he pointed out that flint is a poor city. he won't say it's a black city.

and the governor removed the mayors of the black city of michigan and installed his own cronies, gave the rich a billion dollar tax cut, then had to cut back on services because there wasn't enough money in the state. and one of the services they cut back on was clean drinking water for the people of flint. >> right, moving the water. >> so it's like, i don't know. i wish, i just keep hoping president obama will use this last year to just come in. how impressive would it been had he brought 500 army corps of engineers and a back hoe or a dozen back hoes? >> right. i was thinking watching this, there was a philosophy that took hold in the '70s and '80s called broken windows for neighborhoods. and i'm wondering with our infrastructure if we ought to have a broken infrastructure windows type policy. because this -- flint is the -- flint may be the first of many, considering what everybody will

say, democrat and republican about the state of america's infrastructure, whether it's pipes, whether it's airports, or bridges. >> absolutely. that's a great analogy you've made. the one thing i would add to the twist here in michigan, it's not just an infrastructure problem. because the problem, the pipes were fine. the lead pipes were actually working. old, but working. it was because the governor let them run the flint river water through those pipes, corroded it, brought the lead that was in the pipes, into the water. and that -- and yet he did it only to cut back on services to a poor city, so he could afford the billion dollar tax cut. that's the key twist. >> you've been pretty tough on governor snyder. is there anything he's done in the last two months that gives you any hope he can be part of the solution? >> no. absolutely. >> i know you want him criminally charged, but has he done anything since -- >> no. >> -- that gives you a sign he wants to be part of the

solution? >> no. he's the fox. and you don't ask the fox to take care of the hen house. this was the man who was responsible once he learned that the arsenic was being put in the host's water, he did nothing, he said nothing. this man is, i mean, i gotta tell you, it took a lot of whatever to show up in flint there, there, and be booed for, you know, five or ten minutes. maybe he needed that for his own catharsis. all humans have a conscience. he has one. and so he knows what he did. and he should pay for that, but he should not be in charge of the decision-making. i will say one thing about -- that some people have said, that michigan should pay for this. the people of michigan voted for him. this isn't a 2000 florida election, gore and bush thing. the majority of michiganders

wanted this guy and they voted him in a second time. so my fellow michiganders should also help pay for this and remember next time when they go to the polls who they're voting for. >> michael moore, thank you very much. >> thanks for covering this and staying on top of it. >> you got it. >> governor rick snyder will join joe and mika tomorrow morning on "morning joe." more "mtp daily" right after this.

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and there you have it, as i hinted at earlier. we are now here at nbc news and msnbc officially calling donald trump the presumptive nominee of the republican party. trump earns that label not because he reached the magic number of 1,237, but rather by now being the only candidate active and left in the race. >> by the way, today is may 4th, it's now known as "star wars" day in my house, my oldest daughter's birthday. but it also happens to be nine days later than mitt romney earned the presumptive nominee label back in 2012. ironically, that is despite the republican party actively aiming, if you recall, way back when, their goal was to have the nomination process wrapped up much earlier than they did in 2012. after romney's 2012 defeat, the republican autopsy concluded this, we believe it's better for the party to have a nominee selected earlier in the 2016

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cycle. democrats had six on their radar. republicans were targeting at least two as an attempt to build on their majority or limit thei. that was the conventional thinking way back when. democrats are,0 now thinking bigger. they're now busting out some blue sharpies. they think they are able to double their target list and add the following states. all states we mentioned plus arizona, missouri, north carolina, iowa, kentucky and indiana. there are some big name republicans running in those states. there's some pretty decent democratic groups in some of those states. b level candidates who can ride a wave. would the trump effect give the democrats the boost think need to flip the senate. we'll talk to two experts right after the break. we'll be right back. hink about .

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time for the lid in part two of that conversation about the senate. basically a former republican office holder who will speak truth to power when it comes to what we need know about money, fund raising. jennifer, that map. the basic map of eight seats.

we expand eed it to as big as 1. when do you think we'll know if this a bigger map or smaller map? >> i'm not moving ratings right now. i had a lot of people talk to me about it's all over for republicans in the senate. puts them in a horrible place for 2018, which is hard to believe. let's talk about 2016. when we do think we'll know for sure. frankly, after the conventions. i'm going to reassess this map every single week from here on out. when i feel we're on a path to a direction to somewhere it's going to be after both conventions. >> tom, the thing i'm hearing the most concern about is less about trump effect on the ballot. it's more of the trump effect on fund raising. it's this. he's not a prolific fund-raiser himself. it's not clear how much money he's going to raise for the

party. we knew mitt romney was going to be a prolific fund-raiser. the real concern is the clintons know how to raise money. that's the concern. is that real? >> it is real. it's also, you don't run unified campaign, you could have people moving in different directions. it makes it a lot harder. the last two presidential elections that obama care, republicans have had a hard time winning in states he carried. only one senator survived. >> who is the one? >> senator collins. >> you can picture how that means nobody else probably could. >> correct. democrats have had a propensity not to split their ticket. that's a problem for us. >> where are you hearing from the republican campaigns?

will one of these, maybe it's not kirk, will one of them decide to even endorse hillary or something like that? >> i'm not sure you'll see them endorse history. they still have base to worry about it. they can't alienate their own base. i don't agree with him, the tone, i don't agree with everything he believes but heist better than the alternative. for that reason we're going to unite as a party. i think that's the tone you'll see. mark kirk is probably the incumbent who can say i'm not supporting him. >> is there a chance that trump becomes an asset?

>> where can he be an asset? >> down state illinois. he can clearly be an asset outside the college towns. >> places in ohio, wisconsin. >> places in new hampshire. in these rule areas he can consolidate. trump makes it uniquely harder, it's probably colorado. >> i have to agree with that. there's no question the hispanic vote in nevada makes it tough to see how that helps in the senate race. trump is the least of their problems now. >> you said obvious lily a lot these will try to make these

races. you made a point you can't do that anymore. >> they took away earmarks. i was mr. northern virginia. >> you weren't trying to get criticism. >> it gave me my local brand. they don't have that anymore. these races have become parliamentary. they are no longer voting for the candidate. they are voting for the party. that's a problem when your party is running. >> if these guys are running with trump, that makes it difficult. >> i ran with oliver north. >> that was considered disaster. it can be done. >> one of the crazy things we might see is the return of the split ticket voter.

we haven't seen that since probably '92, '96. in this case you might see it back. i can't see some of these republicans going all the way democrat down the ticket. >> you're saying we will make swing voters great again. >> we hope so. >> thank you both. love breaking down the senate. we'll be back tomorrow. hardball with chris matthews starts right now. game, set, match. let's play hard ball. >> good evening. this is a special two-hour edition of hardball. a history day in american