good to be with you on this mother's day. i'm frances rivera. welcome to "msnbc live." it is 9:00 a.m. on the east coast, 6:00 a.m. out west. here's what's happening. blindsided. donald trump goes on "meet the press" to describe his reaction to house speaker paul ryan saying he is not ready to support the expected nominee. the anti-vote. new poll numbers show what's been getting people to the primaries. it turns out their least favorite candidate is a big motivator. plus -- >> now we've landed on the exciting presidential matchup between a godless liberal democrat and hillary clinton.

>> where's the "isn't that special?" that's the church lady. she returns to "snl" and has a rare interview with you know who. and let's get right to new reaction from donald trump about house speaker paul ryan's reluctance to back him. and here's what the presumptive nominee told my colleague chuck todd in an interview airing this morning on "meet the press." >> i'm never stunned by anything that happens in politics. but i'm not -- so i'm not -- yeah, i was blindsided a little bit because he spoke to me three weeks ago and it was a very nice, encouraging call. don't know him well. met him one time, but have a nice relationship with him and all of a sudden he goes on and does this number. i'm not sure what he has in mind, but that's okay. >> his comments come days before he's set to meet privately with the house speaker and rnc chairman. trump is taking a break from the campaign trail after once again going after hillary clinton and the former president for his past indiscretions. >> she's married to a man, and

nobody, nobody perhaps in the history of politics was worse to women or abused women more than bill clinton. and she's taking negative ads on me. i mean, here's a guy, he was impeached because he lied. he lied. do you remember the fabulous "i did not have sex with that woman," and then a couple of months later, "i'm guilty." and she's taking negative ads on me! >> for the democrats, bernie sanders is holding a rally in new jersey today ahead of next month's primary. but west virginia is next on the primary calendar for both democrats and republicans. there are 37 delegates at stake for democrats on tuesday and 34 delegates for republicans. let's check in with nbc's katy tur who's been on the trump beat from day one. katy, good to see you. with donald trump going after the clintons' personal past, can we expect that to be, you know, the campaign's main line of attack from here on out?

>> i don't think it's going to be the main line of attack. i think it's going to be one of many. he's going after hillary clinton for her position with nafta, he's going after hillary clinton for benghazi, for her e-mail scandal, for talking about miners and saying that coal miners' jobs should be gone because she wants clean energy. he's going to take everything he can and throw it all at her at the same time to try and take her down a notch. he's trying to hit her credibility. he's trying to hit her strength and stamina, which many find to be a veiled sexist attack. he's also going to bring in as he's proven in the past four days where he's been campaigning, he's not afraid to go into bill clinton's past, her past with him. take a listen to how he put it yesterday. >> when foreign policy, hillary is trigger happy. she is, she's trigger happy. she's got a bad temperament. by the way -- and her husband learned that a few times, didn't he? bad temper. no, bad temper.

can you imagine -- look, can you imagine another four years of the clintons? seriously. can you imagine, seriously, it's time to move on, folks. we've got to do it right. it's time to move on. >> a couple things from that. can you imagine another four years of a clinton in the white house? that perhaps is his best general election argument, trying to appeal to those who either don't like hillary clinton or we're not happy with bill clinton's eight years or frankly just want somebody new. that's when we saw when it certainly came to jeb bush. secondly, it's the asides about bill clinton's past that we've been seeing. it's not necessarily a full-fledged direct attack. he just kind of mentions it in an aside, and the audience groans and laughs. one thing about the audience that we see a lot lately, we have these vendors outside who are selling pins that say "hillary for prison" or much cruder versions of anti-hillary pin, and so many people in these rallies are wearing them, or the

t-shirts, and it goes to show you just how disliked she is, at least on the gop side. donald trump is trying to figure out how many of those don't like her on the independent or maybe the democratic side. and he's going to try and bring them into the fold. >> i'm sure we'll see more of that as we approach the general election. i want to ask you, do you get a sense that he's keeping the bull's-eye on the clintons and their past as an effort to kind of keep the spotlight and downplay the problems he's been having unifying the republican party? >> absolutely. >> how will that hurt his chances going forward? >> i don't think it's going to hurt his chances, but i think he's trying to change the conversation from maybe the issues he's having with the republican party. he's still talking about it on the campaign trail. he's still talking about speaker ryan, talking to chuck todd, claiming that he had this call with him after new york. the speaker's office is disputing this, and they only had one phone call in march. donald trump's campaign saying that was the phone call they were talking about. not entirely clear how they were disputing paul ryan's dispute. but that is an example of how he

is not necessarily having the party unify behind him. for the speaker of the house to come out, who's really the leader of the republican party, for him to come out and say that he doesn't necessarily endorse or support the republican nominee yet, that is a major breaking, huge, giant thing. and it's one thing that donald trump is going to have to figure out a way to come to -- come to terms with and fix because frankly, he needs the fund-raising. he needs the party to unify around him so that he can fund-raise to go up against hillary clinton. and she's probably going to be running a billion-dollar campaign against him. frances? >> to be a fly on the wall in that meeting on thursday with ryan and trump. katy tur, as always, thank you. appreciate your time. want to go to nbc's kristen welker in our washington bureau. good morning to you. as we know, hillary clinton has been hitting back against trump's foreign policy, but when it comes to the strategy and to a bite back in dealing with trump's resurrection of her husband's past indiscretions,

how hard will she bite back, if at all? >> hey, frances. well, good morning to you. we got a glimpse of how she's going to respond to these attacks earlier this week when she essentially brushed them off and said, hey, we dealt with that in the '90s. if he wants to bring all of that back up, go ahead. i've already survived all of those battles. so i think that's going to be her tactic. but frances, she's going to be very careful not to respond to every single attack. her campaign officials say she's not going to get down into the mud with donald trump. i think what you will see, on the other hand, her surrogates are going to agressively go after donald trump every time he makes one of these assertions, one of her top surrogates telling me their argument is going to be, you're going to really hold this person responsible for what her husband did so many years ago? so they're really going to try to discredit that line of attack. but in terms of the candidate herself, i think she's going to be focused on drawing distinctions with his foreign policy and then unearthing and

reminding voters of all of the controversial comments that he's made towards muslims, towards women, towards immigrants, they think that is a stronger way to take on donald trump. the challenge for the clinton campaign though is to figure out which attacks to respond to and which to ignore. >> and it's one thing being defensive and being offensive, especially when it comes to donald trump and his past as well. i want to ask you on the other side, hillary clinton and bernie sanders have no planned events in west virginia ahead of the primary on tuesday. so bernie sanders, i know later this afternoon in piscataway, new jersey, he's going to hold an event there. where exactly are they campaigning around that this week and what is the strategy on their calculation? >> look, i think part of the strategy is both sides feel as though west virginia there the cake there is already baked. senator sanders looks very strong if that state. so they're looking forward to some of these other states. let's look. i think we have a graphic of where we can expect to see these two candidates in the coming days. senator sanders will be in new jersey today. he'll be in california on monday

and then oregon. secretary clinton heads to virginia tomorrow. and then on tuesday, it's kentucky. but that state, frances, california, california, california, it carries the most delegates. if you're looking forward, you have to imagine both of these candidates are going to spend a whole lot of time there. senator sanders will likely spend big in terms of ad campaigns there. for the clinton campaign, they're trying to figure out how to allocate their resources right now as she fights on two fronts, donald trump and senator sanders. so they're going to have to figure that out. but i anticipate we are going to see her there quite a bit between now and the june primary. >> all right. nbc's kristen welker from our washington bureau, as always, thank you very much. >> thank you. many republicans say donald trump's run for the president has caused you have with the deepest divides within the party in recent memory, but the candidate himself, he doesn't see that as a problem. >> does the party have to be together? does it have to be unified? i'm very different than everybody else perhaps that's ever run for office. i actually don't think so. i think that -- >> it doesn't have to be

unified? >> no, i don't think so. i think it would be better if it were unified. i think there would be something good about it, but i don't think it has to be unified. >> how do you win? >> because i think i'm going to go out and i'm going to get millions of people from the democrats. i'm going to get bernie people to vote because they like me on trade. i have to stay true to my principles also. and i'm a conservative, but don't forget, this is called the republican party. it's not called the conservative party. >> i want to bring in rosie gray, political reporter at buzzfeed and political reporter for "the washington post," thank you both for being with me this morning. so rosie, let's get right to it. when it comes to trump saying that -- although we were reporting right after the indiana win, that his goal was to unify the party, and thousand we're hearing this from him now. is it because we're hearing from mitt romney, the bushes, paul ryan now, and can he pull off a win without a unified gop behind him? >> well, we're really -- we're really in uncharted territory. we haven't really seen a situation in which the house speaker is not supporting the

nominee who's of his own party. so it really remains to be seen whether or not donald trump can pull off any sort of party unity and whether it will have any impact on what's going to happen in november. >> you know, when it comes to the unity there, there's some degree of it in the anti-trump movement, spending $50 million since january, that uptick after nevada. phillip, as you reported this week, you look at it and you see them coming in heavy in indiana. you know they kind of did the hands up thing in new york and the northeastern states as well. so would you say it didn't work primarily because there was really no other option that they were giving voters out there, no other alternative? >> yeah, i think that's definitely part of it. the field is so splinter, they didn't solidify on who they wanted to stand up against him. the establishment couldn't decide. and they they spent too late, they started spending after nevada. that fracturing, when donald trump says that he doesn't need republicans to win, i think it's

delusional. i mean, he absolutely -- one of the reasons he's seen so unfavorable is they view him unfavorable to everyone else as well. i think he needs to slolidify hs base. >> which is why it's so important to see who he'll pick as his running mate. what's the game man now that he's the last gop candidate left in the race? here we go, a day of reckoning, i think as you put it. >> well, there's a couple options. one thing that a lot of people are starting to focus on is down-ballot races and trying to preserve the party's majorities in the senate and the house, try to protect those candidates from trump, basically. so that's one thing that people are focusing on. there's also still some talk of trying to recruit some sort of third-party conservative option. but there's a lot of logistical challenges there. there's no clear person who that person would be. that would be a more unlikely

scenario, i think. >> we're talking about his rally yesterday in washington state when it comes to the attacks that we're seeing, maybe, you know, as we were hearing from katy tur to deflect from the problem and party unity that he doubled down on his new favorite clinton attack. let's take a quick listen to that. >> she's playing the women's card. she's going, did you hear that donald trump raised his voice while speaking to a woman? oh, i'm sorry. i'm sorry. i mean, all of the men were petrified to speak to women anymore? we may raise our voice. you know what? the women get it better than we do, folks. all right? they get it better than we do. >> so we're hearing from that on the side he's kind of got the side fight back and forth on twitter with elizabeth warren. so rosie, does trump just not care about the poor image among women? you hear from him, you hear from his surrogates and saying he's doing strongly, but look at these numbers. 70% unfavorable. does he need to now care? does he need to change if he

wants to win in november? >> well, he does. i mean, he does need to care about that because he is so unpopular broadly among many different groups including women. and he is going to need to win more women in order to win in november. whether or not he actually does -- i mean, his behavior does not indicate that he is making a real effort to, you know, to change his rhetoric towards women, et cetera. so i don't know whether he can really climb that mountain. >> do you think, rosie, that we can eventually see melania trump or ivanka trump coming out a little bit more and hearing from them more now that -- i think we lost you there. or maybe a light. because we see a silhouette from you. phill phillip, do you think when it comes to that that we might see more of his wife and daughter to help him out? >> yeah. he actually tried to do that earlier in the campaign. >> right. and i thought that we would continue to see it, but it's kind of been there, then back, then not so much anymore. >> right. i don't know that it did much good when he tried last time either. if you look at where he polls --

the most recent "post"/abc poll, he's doing 20 points worse than mitt romney among white women. the only time they haven't since 1972 was for bill clinton in '92 and '96, but he needs those white women. they normally vote republican. and right now they're favoring hillary clinton according to most recent polling and that's a big problem. >> of course, we'll see again the all-important running mate. we'll see how that may come into play. rosie, nice to have you back only to say good-bye. i wish we had more time. to both of you, glad to have you with me this morning, rosie and phillip. coming up, a look at the short list of vice presidential candidates that could join the trump ticket. amazing is moving like one. real is making new friends. amazing is getting this close. real is an animal rescue. amazing is over twenty-seven thousand of them.

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i call her the goofus, okay? elizabeth warren.

now, i hope she runs with hillary because i would like to take them out. i'll tell you. i'd like to -- they're phonies. they're phonies. and i'd love to take them out. honestly, i think hillary's too smart to pickle h pick elizabeth warren. >> it's all part of his line of attacks against hillary clinton who he says is using the so-called woman card. joining me now is victoria defrances defrancesco, professor at the university of texas. as always, good to have you with me. i have to say, and now that the attacks are coming hard even personally against hillary clinton and her husband, why would donald trump bring her into the mix here? why would he even bother picking this fight against elizabeth warren when he can focus on hillary clinton, and what will that do as far as those woman card attacks against her? >> good morning, frances. more than anything, it's red meat to the crowd. you know, he is still in primary

mode. so he's trying to rile up that base. we saw him in west virginia. he still has a couple more primaries. and he really wants to cement that front-runner status. so he does this. and elizabeth warren, being a very progressive democrat, quite to the left of hillary clinton, is able to rile up the crowd. so i think as we get more into the general election, we're going to see that focus off of elizabeth warren and more onto hillary clinton. but right now it's red meat. >> but don't you think that because the general election really is right here in the forefront that he would start thinking this could hurt him in the general election, especially knowing how poorly he's done in polls with women? >> i really think, frances, he's waiting to pivot. he's going to give himself a couple more weeks, and then the transition's going to happen slowly because it's not going to happen overnight. i think we're going to see donald trump and his advisers pull him in that general category. but again, it's not going to happen overnight. he has this brand of being boisterous and out front. so he's going to have to tone it

down very slowly so that he doesn't alienate that base that has come to love him for speaking his mind, saying what he thinks. >> well, talking about a demographic that may already be feeling that, women and minorities as well as interesting now that we're looking ahead to see which running mate, which potential vp could actually bridge that. three influential top the hill's list of early contenders with who could run with trump, susana martinez, tennessee congress come marsha blackburn and nikki haley. she was vocal in slamming trump from day one and saying nope, not going to do it, not going to be the running mate, although she will support him for the nominee. in your report you say susana martinez is the yin to donald trump's yang. and this is despite governor martinez's support for marco rubio and denouncing his anti-imnant commeanti-i anti-immigrant comments. so it's interesting, why are you even entertaining that and going

so far as calling her a shero? >> right. so a couple weeks ago, bill o'reilly said that susana martinez would be the only pick for donald trump to have because she would be so effective in helping him in the general election. the big caveat is would she accept? you know, suspending that and saying let's say that he does a really good job of convincing her and wooing ining her, and acce accepts, she would do so much to help him not with the latino vote because the latino ship has sailed. they're not going to support donald trump. >> even in new mexico, they're not mostly latino, right? hispanic? >> exactly. when she ran for governor both in 2010 and 2014, her base of support was among white republicans. so we have to disavow ourselves of the notion that susana martinez would help with latinos. martinez would help with the gop establish ment establishment.

the establishment loves her. the tea party really likes her. she's that happy medium where she's against amnesty. she was tough on driver's licenses for illegal immigrants, but at the same time, she supports comprehensive immigration reform and denounced the trump comments about rapists and drug dealers when referring to undocumented persons. so she's that happy medium. she could be the good cop to his bad cop on immigration. >> on immigration, right. you know, she says she has no interest in being trump's running mate, but what would change that? >> i think if he promised to tone it down when it came to immigration. both on the tone and maybe he approaches susana martinez and says, hey, let's find a middle ground of how we can deal with immigration more logically, more responsibly. so maybe if he puts that on the table, she considers that. you know, she is a woman. she is a woman, and he needs that demographic. it's not going to close the gender gap, but at the very least, it's going to of tsoften of the criticism we've seen thus far with donald trump. >> on the other side, we're also

hearing marco rubio floated around as another pick as well. for those who think yes, a latino vice president could help among latinos, but then you go back and, like, really? in his words, little marco is going to be the one who could possibly be running beside him? is that actually possible? >> anything is possible in politics, frances. and i've come to believe that over these nine months in particular. but i do think the marco pick would be especially hard because of the level of tension between the two. if i'm going to see a running mate from the gop cast of characters from the primary season, i would say maybe a john kasich, a chris christie, a ben carson. i think marco rubio would be very difficult because, again, he's not going to help that much with the latino vote, and there's already so much bad blood. so if you're going to try to get a latino on the ticket, why not go with someone where you don't have that history? >> well, that history of, you know, sweating too much, small hands, bad makeup, wetting

himself, it goes on and on. so yeah, that would be dug up. thank you so much for the discussion this morning, as always, victoria, i appreciate your being with us. still ahead, the surprising reason why nearly half of trump's supporters say they're voting for him. i have asthma... ...one of many pieces in my life. so when my asthma symptoms kept coming back on my long-term control medicine. i talked to my doctor and found a missing piece in my asthma treatment with breo. once-daily breo prevents asthma symptoms. breo is for adults with asthma not well controlled on a long-term asthma control medi,

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you live life your way. we can help you retire yo way, too. financial guidancehile you're mastering life. from chase. so you can. our friends at "saturday night live" couldn't miss an opportunity to poke fun at the presumptive gop nominee, donald trump, and they even brought back an old fan favorite to help. >> donny, there are those who say you're not qualified, and that's not true. you know, i remember a "celebrity apprentice" episode where gary busey didn't sell enough pancakes, and you just said "you're fired." and i thought right then and there, give this man the nuclear codes. >> a lot of people are saying that. >> that was comedian and "snl" alum dana carvey returning as "the church lady." and towards the end of the skit,

look, fake ted cruz appears, trying out his new role as none other than, as she would say it, satan. donald trump may have all but clinched the republican nomination, but he's still out on the campaign trail pushing hard for new voters. >> we are going to win so much more than anybody ever. we're bringing in democrats. we're bringing in independents. and really importantly you know what we're bringing in? we're bringing in people that have never voted before. it's amazing how many there are. people that never voted before are coming up to me. they're 30, 40, 50, 60 years old. they say, mr. trump, i've never had anybody that i wanted to vote for before. >> i want to bring in david, director of suffolk university's political research center. david, good morning to you. and nice to have you with me. when you look at the polls so far, what are the polls missing about donald trump's support? >> well, they're recording how strong he is in the republican party, and he's morphed a lot since he announced last spring. but among general election

voters, his unfavorable has stayed fix at 61% since last ju july. >> when it comes to his popularity and why we're seeing now his position as a presumptive nominee and looking ahead to the general election, is it possible that the polls here have underestimated his popularity in some sense? >> i don't think so. i think the general election polling has been pretty consistent. in the primary i think in some of the northeastern states, for example, they can underrepresent what his actual tally was, and in other states, overrepresented, like in the iowa republican caucus, for example, all of the polls had him winning, and ted cruz won that. so it really fend depends on t state. but i think the state of the race right now is donald trump's unfavorable, which is at 61%, and it was at exactly 61% in july, in september, and today in the most recent poll. the difference, though, is that hillary clinton's unfavorable has creeped up.

it's gone from 47% to 51%, and now it's 54%. so her unfavorable has gone up, and donald trump's has stayed fixed. >> it's interesting, too when you talk about polls that show this part of this race, where half of trump's supporters will be voting for him, you know, is a sign that they love him or they want him as president but to block hillary clinton from the white house and also vice versa. so you talk to many voters out there that -- and we've heard that as well -- how precedented is that, and what can we read into it at this point? >> well, what it showed us is that in our last national poll, 22.5% of likely voters said that they were unfavorable to both hillary clinton and donald trump. so that speaks to the number that you're talking about, which is trump voters voting to prevent hillary clinton and vice versa. and so what you're looking at is those are the voters that will matter in november. almost one in four voters right now are unfavorable to both. >> david, good to have you with

me and that boston skyline behind you reminds us of our days when we would chat, especially the '08 election in boston. good to chat with you again here. >> likewise. thank you. donald trump keeps talking about the woman card. and this time going after popular democratic senator elizabeth war opiniren. what does he stand to gain from this? senator wendy davis joins me for that conversation. that's next. to folks out there whose diabetic nerve pain... shoots and burns its way into your day, i hear you. to everyone with this pain that makes ordinary tasks extraordinarily painful, i hear you. make sure your doctor hears you too! i hear you because i was there when my dad suffered with diabetic nerve pain. if you have diabetes and burning, shooting pain in your feet or hands, don't suffer in silence! step on up and ask your doctor about diabetic nerve pain. tell 'em cedric sent you. customer service!d. ma'am. this isn't a computer... wait. you're real? with discover card, you can talk to a real person in the u.s., like me, anytime. wow. this is a recording. really?

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with claritin my allergies don't come between me and victory. live claritin clear. welcome back to msnbc live on this mother's day. i'm frances rivera at msnbc headquarters in new york. hillary clinton has yet to respond to donald trump's new claims about bill clinton's impeachment. giving us a glimpse of what her strategy against him might look like. >> everything i've just said the republicans disagree with, and their presumptive nominee otherwise called their presumptuous nominee has made it

really clear, he basically said wages are too high in america. and then, of course, he doesn't think much of equal pay for women because, of course, he doesn't think much of women, it turns out. >> joining me now is clinton supporter and former state senator wendy davis of texas. thank you so much for being with us this morning. we heard from secretary clinton, and she continues to say that she'll call out trump's attack against her and on women's issues from this point on. but when you think about that, how hard can she fight back, and what are the boundaries that she needs to be aware of in considering that this may backfire? >> you know, i think she has a solid strategy going forward, understanding that he is incredibly unpopular with women. and as has been talked about on your show already, frances, the fact of the matter is that he is suffering tremendously with women voters, republican women voters being among those. and if he can't heal that wound,

there's simply no way he's going to be able to succeed in a general election contest between him and hillary clinton. she's going to keep reminding voters of the choice that they have. someone who, like her, i think she's going to continue to talk about bringing the country together and continue to show him as a divider, not only someone who looks in a way that's unfavorable to women, but also latinos and other groups as well. >> but there's also a point there where these attacks continue to happen, and they may very well be especially leading up in the general election that she can be defensive about it. also talking about her as the choice when it comes to policy and everything else. but there's got to be that point where she's got to say wait. there's no longer the shield here that she has to be on the offensive somewhat, but how far will she go? will she bring up his past? even though she's insists she's not going to play down and dirty in the mud, but when will that line be crossed if these attacks continue? >> i think what we're going to see with hillary clinton is what

we've seen already. she is going to distinguish herself with her ideas, with what it is that she's going to do to bring this country together, with the fact that she recognizes we've got real challenges in wrages in cathis country, making sure that women have equal place in our communities across this country that they ought to, recognizing education, the ideas that she's going to bring forward to heal this country, and she'll create a stark contrast with him who's going to stay in the mud because he's seen it as a successful strategy in the primary. >> can we expect to see more attacks from surrogates, especially knowing bill clinton's past and indiscretions have been the target for donald trump, will the former president hit back at mr. trump for his own past behavior, and how risky is that? >> i don't expect to see bill clinton doing that. you may see that from hillary clinton's surrogates. certainly a surrogate's role is

to defend their candidate and to do it in a way that the candidate oftentimes cannot do themselves because they're seen as being defensive by doing so. so i think you're going to definitely see, from the people who are out there on the campaign trail for hillary, the fact that they're going to push back against some of this messaging from donald trump, most certainly. >> it's interesting also when you take into consideration the media's role in the clinton campaign and how donald trump sees it. here's what he said at a rally in oregon on friday. let's listen. >> they protect hillary clinton. you know what? they protect her. they're totally protective of her. so they are the world's most dishonest people, and use much stronger language, but there's too many great women in the room. >> all right, "they" being the moo ed ya. could that be in some sense a tactic, a scare tactic in not having the clintons talk about trump's past? >> i think really it's his attempt at trying to push the media in a direction that he wants to see them go.

and i think it definitely is him wanting to shield himself from some of the criticisms he feels will come his way and wanting to make sure that they're leaped or levied heavily on hillary as well. let's face it, though. no one has undergone the kind of scrutiny in the media and otherwise than hillary clinton. and for him to say somehow that she has received a light touch from the media is absolutely absurd. >> as we've seen in the past few days, elizabeth warren is sharing a little bit of that. very quickly, i want to ask you, both sides are talking vps. who do you see as far as standing next to hillary clinton, and could that person be you? >> oh, it definitely will not be me. i think hillary is going to choose someone who's going to demonstrate the breadth and the depth of the vision and the ideas of the democratic party. and she's got a number of great choices to choose from there. it has been a lot of fun to watch elizabeth warren kind of

picking this fight with donald trump and seeing her definitely making sure that any idea that bernie supporters might have that he ought to be their preferred candidate versus hillary clinton, she's the standard bearer for the more liberal side of the democratic party, and she's going to make sure and draw that contrast going forward. >> wendy davis, former texas state senator, i appreciate your time being with us this morning. thank you. >> thank you so much. kansas and parts of oklahoma are bracing for severe weather just a day after several tornadoes left a path of destruction in colorado. look at this incredible video. it's from a small town called ray. it's about 12 miles from the nebraska border. officials say that half-mile-wide twister damaged several properties and knocking down dozens of electrical poles and injured at least five people. thunderstorms are expected today in the plains states with the potential for tornadoes. and also new this morning, showing the level of destruction with scorched homes and virtually entire neighborhoods burned to the ground as a canadian wildfire continues to ravage parts of alberta's soil

sands town. nbc's miguel almaguer is in wood buff, one of the hardest-hit areas. officials have been warning the situation could get worse. even more so, we're hearing two months without rain in some of these areas? >> reporter: yeah, frances, it's all the fuel out here that this fire is feeding on. there are millions and millions of dead trees all across this region. and the fire is just ripping right through that. and of course, they face that triple threat today, those gusty winds, could be higher temperatures later on this afternoon, and of course, lower humidity. there have been some very, very light sprinkles in the air this morning. but that's simply not what firefighters are going to depend on here. they would need a heavy, steady rain to put this blaze out. as you mentioned, it will likely burn for months, as they say. this fire has already consumed some 1,600 structures. most of those homes. the blaze taking a toll not only on the community but also on firefighters. here's what one firefighter had to say. >> i don't consider myself a

hero. but i've met more heroes in this experience than i've ever thought existed. sorry. our community has more firefighters and more emergency responders, police, everybody, that have given up their own homes, that are safe, their own families that are waiting for them to come up in the middle of this beast to help protect my home. they're heroes to me. >> reporter: no question that this firefight has certainly gotten personal. the firefighters, many of them that are on the front lines, live in this community. we have heard stories about firefighters leaving homes, leaving their own property to protect their neighbors' property as their homes burn down. this fire is still on the move. it's still very aggressive. i can tell you out here while it is a bit chillier, it is still very windy out here, and that is

what is helping fuel this blaze and fan it all across this region. frances? >> that is that rain they so badly need. miguel almaguer, thank you so much. straight ahead, one of this week's five key members that gives bernie sanders reason to hope for his political revolution. >> i hope that west virginia, this tough state, that this tough state will go forward and help lead this country into the political revolution. thank you all very much! smetics. smetics. the orders were rushing in. i could feel our deadlines racing towards us. we didn't need a loan. we needed short-term funding fast. building 18 homes in 4 ½ months? that was a leap. but i knew i could rely on american express to help me buy those building materials. amex helped me buy the inventory i needed. our amex helped us fill the orders. just like that. another step on the journey. will you be ready when growth presents itself? realize your buying power at open.com

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trump upending the conventional wisdom and winning -- or seemingly winning the republican presidential nomination. and now people are questioning the conventional wisdom that hillary clinton has the advantage in a general election against donald trump. the problem is donald trump led the polls for the republican presidential nomination the whole way. he led 94% of the polls that were conducted from july 1 of last year through now. in the general election, that's not the case. hillary clinton leads or is tied with donald trump in 58 of the 64 polls that have been conducted. >> wow. >> since last year, matching the two of them up against each other. donald trump has only led six times. so right now if you're looking at data to inform you who starts this general election stretch with the edge, it's undeniable that it's hillary clinton. >> that important number stays at 58. next number, 84%. republican voters who say they wouldn't support trump or hillary clinton. >> it seems like a lot given throughout this campaign we've heard about donald trump's ceiling with republicans,

republicans who are resistant to his campaign and are never trump people. so it seems like 84% is a. the problem for donald trump is that hillary clinton wins between 90 and 95% of democrats. and given the polarization in the country the fact democrats have had an edge in all of these presidential elections as far as there have been more democrats who turned out to vote than republicans, that is troubling for him. that means he needs to make up that gap somewhere else or unify all of the republicans, get them behind his campaign. and when republican voters are seeing paul ryan, speaker of the house, question whether he can support donald trump, that doesn't send the kind of signals that trump needs to bring all republicans together. >> all right. next number here, 25.1 million. that's the number of voters in gop primaries and caucuses this year. we've been reporting record numbers. what's that number from last career? >> this comes from a study, a republican polling firm here in washington. that is a 64% increase between

2012 and 2016 in turnout in republican primaries and caucuses. that's huge. donald trump claims he's bringing new voters into the fold, and that may be true, at least in the primary process. t least in the primary process. the question is can he do that in a general election. the data doesn't necessarily support that but it's something to monitor moving forward. >> quickly the next one, 72%, the share of bernie sanders' voters below the age of 30. what does it mean for the democratic contest, especially with the delegate math in place? >> well, it doesn't mean much other than bernie sanders can continue to campaign, can take his campaign to california all the way through june 7th but it doesn't change the fact that hillary clinton will almost certainly beat bernie sanders among pledged delegates and given her overwhelming support among superdelegates, she is almost certainly going to be the democratic nominee, barring any kind of huge change. >> very quickly, we can squeeze in 49 cents. >> there's a new study out from

two professors that find republican candidates are spending more money on television advertising than democrats because their consulting firms are taking more money. this is an interesting study. but what is important here to watch is whether or not hillary clinton or donald trump has the edge in tv advertising at the end. barack obama did not necessarily outspend mitt romney at the end in tv advertising, but he got a better rate on his ads and more voters saw his ads than mitt romney's ads. can hillary clinton's campaign take advantage of some of these structural things. >> steven shepard, thank you for the breakdown in the numbers. appreciate it. it's becoming even less affordable. coming up, obamacare premiums are expected to soar and the out of pocket expenses could make some patients feel even worse. about to arrive. and with her, a flood of potential patients. a deluge of digital records. x-rays, mris. all on account...of penelope.

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americans who buy health insurance under the affordable care act could soon face sticker shock. planned premiums are announced

in early november. many could increase by 10% or even more. i want to bring in sara cliff, senior editor, who's covered obamacare since the beginning. sara, why the increase? >> so we're in year three of obamacare at this point and right now the insurance companies have a lot more information about who is signing up. what they're finding is the people signing up are sicker and use more health care than they expected so they have been talking about how a lot in 2017 they think they're going to have to raise rates to cover those higher medical bills that they have been paying. >> so if i sign up for obamacare, i'm now hearing that, oh, boy, i may have to pay more around the corner here but you have the obama administration who's pushing back saying that tax credits reduce the cost of coverage for the vast majority of people. so what is the breakdown here? where is the truth? >> it's definitely true that these tax credits, they cap middle and low income people's

contribution to their premiums so those people don't have to worry as much, although if they want to buy some of the really kind of better really comprehensive plans, that their tax credits won't cover, then they might be facing a bit of financial strain. and if you are someone buying coverage on the marketplace without a government subsidy, you earn too much, that's someone who's really going to feel those premium increases pretty hard. >> we're talking about opening its doors in november when it comes to healthcare.gov so you have people considering that and hearing about these increases and they're hesitant down the road possibly. what will they see when it comes to those who are interested in signing up? >> they might see slightly higher prices than they expected. one thing we do expect consumers to do is they'll shop around. if their premium goes up, they might look at a different insurance carrier or a plan with a higher deductible to get that premium down. so we do expect a decent amount of shopping. but as you and i know, it's

often quite challenging to switch insurers so shopping is not always the most seamless experience in health care. >> okay, sarah, those changes coming in november. thank you so much for your time. >> thank you. >> that wraps up our time here on "msnbc live." mooim fr i'm frances rivera. joy reid is up next. you live life your way. we can help you retireyour. financial guidance while u're mastering life. from chase. so you can.

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good morning and maep mother's day. if you were watching yesterday afternoon you might have gotten the contrast between the man currently the president of the united states and the man who wants to be president of the united states. listen to president barack obama delivering the commencement speech in washington, d.c. >> be confident in your heritage. be confident in your blackness. one of the great changes that's occurred in our country