>> we'll find out what he really thinks of women when he walks on that stage. >> thank you. watch tonight. special two hour edition of "hardball." . make room for donald. let's play hardball. good evening. i'm chris matthews. voters are going to the polls in west virginia. this is the state in may of 2008, hillary clinton scored major win over barack obama. eight years later it's looking like sanders territory. bernie sanders territory. polls close in 90 minutes in west virginia at 7:30 eastern time.

over the past few weeks clinton has been shifting her focus to the general election. there were surprising mu polls out today from three key swing states. hillary clinton beats trump by only one point in florida. one point in ohio. in pennsylvania, a state that's not voted for a republican since the first george bush president in 1988, clinton beats trump by a single point. a new nbc national poll shows clinton beating trump by just five. very competitive. what is the clinton campaign make of all this. kristen welker is in kentucky. thank you for joining us. these numbers may be outlying but they come, are these a shot to the heart to the clinton people are or they going to ignore them? >> i think right now they're not paying too much attention. i think that's the way to think

about it. they anticipated this will be a competitive race. in terms of the battleground polls that you cited, they believe they're outliers. they don't think it's reflective of what the electorate will look like. you can argue the points back and forth. they are bracing for a close race not only in the battleground states but all of the country. that's why you see secretary clinton training her sights on donald trump. one of the key parts of her strategy is to court women voters, independent voters, republican women. that's been on display. she rolled out a new policy that she says is aimed at lowering the cost of child care. that appeals not only to women but to working class voters. she's still locked in the primary battle. that's what brings her her to kentucky. she's now up with ads here in

kentuc kentucky. that's a big strategy. >> great to hear from you. chris, how in the world do you see this race? it's very hard to put your finger, get your head around it. bernie sanders could be flaming hot in may. he could win a handful of primaries. what's he going to do with the victory if he does get it? >> yeah, that's really the question. what's he doing when you know what the delegate math is and the delegate math is against him. he said i know the path is really narrow. he's not giving up is the number one thing. if you want to look at it at a human level. he's been saying the same thing.

he had close to 6,000 more today on a monday morning. this is somebody who really looking at the polls. the ones you just talked about why is she putting up ads. why is she ding an ad buy. she's not going to stop. anybody who thinks that somehow there will be some sort of kumbaya, it isn't going to happen. he will support the democratic nominee, but he's not going to give this up. he plans to take it to the convention. >> you just showed some super

imposed picture. those people are really up for this. thank you. we'll have the results from west virginia tonight when polls close at 7:30 eastern here. i'll be here as well. tell me about west virginia. it's a white state. tell me about these people. >> it looks like a bernie sanders state. he's done well in states that are largely white, more rural and poor. on paper it looks like a bernie sanders state. if you look at bernie sanders positioning in west virginia tonight and more broadly his positioning in this race right now. it reminds a lot of people of where hillary clinton was eight years ago in final weeks of her campaign against barack obama. take a look at this. west virginia, play 2008, we already thought barack obama was the nominee. hillary clinton came into this state and won by 41 points over barack obama. look at this, it wasn't just

west virginia down the stretch eight years ago. hillary clinton won a lot of states down the stretch eight years ago. she won kentucky. she won in puerto rico. she won in south dakota. she won four of final six contests on the democratic side. the problem for her was it wasn't enough in terms of delegates. she got out pretty quickly. she endorsed barack obama. here is the thing for bernie sanders. she won indiana last week. she is favored. you see the most recent poll in west virginia today. he's favored in west virginia. it could be two straight for him. you see a lot of potential victories fp victories. if he got oregon next week, that looks good. he could win a lot of states. the problem is from a delegate standpoint, bernie sanders is down by 295 pledge delegates. these are all proportional states. you win south dakota big, if he puts a big win, hillary clinton is still getting delegates. if you give sanders massive

margins in all these states, if you look at places hillary clinton will do well, you saber knee sanders overachieves and breaks even, he's running 30 points behind. let's say he forces a tie. say he force a tie in new jersey. even if you give him all those assumptions, it means you get to california on june 7th and he need to win about 75% of the vote in california to fully i race this deficit he faces right now. if you can tell me how bernie sanders will get 75% of the vote in california, then you can tell me how he wins the nomination. otherwise, hillary clinton will be ahead at the pledge delegate count. >> tell us on the air now, the nature of the democratic -- they're not as -- left. not as left as other states you've looked at. >> not at all. every primary, we ask democrats do you call yourself liberal, moderate, conservative. the largest group is still

liberal in west virginia. this is one of the very few states where the number is under 50%. in indiana, last week we had the primary. the number is under 70%. the other thing we're seeing in west virginia, there's a lot of pro-trump democrats or pro-trump independents voting in this democratic primary tonight. the reason, there's an active democratic gubernatorial primary in west virginia. no gubernatorial on the republican side. there's a lot of people showing up because they want to vote for governor and they are voting for trump. excuse me, they're voting for sanders. they want to vote for trump in the general election. that's a factor to keep an eye on. >> you answer my questions. it's fascinating to think of a west virginia liberal. i guess that's something we'll learn about tonight when the results come in. let's turn on the republican side. katie is covering the trump campaign. she's outside of trump tower on

fifth avenue. well, here's the story. he comes to town to washington, i'll be down there on thursday, is he come ing in as the boss o the job applicant? >> it depends. it's what position you're taking on it. for the republican establishment, it's something who is a job seeker. if you're donald trump, he's come ing in as the boss. a response from paul ryan, i dnl didn't inherit the republican party. i won it from the voters. his vote tally right now as a message to washington saying as much as you might dislike me, the voters like me more than you. they have more confidence and need the moment and they have confidence in you. that is something they should respect in washington. that's according to the donald trump campaign. >> we'll have paul manafort on in a few minutes.

i'll asking you about this thinking though, what is the purpose. i hate meetings. i'll admit that. tell me what a meeting will accomplish. both sides go in with some posture and come out with the same posture. they go in with the idea we'll come out united or they don't. what's it purpose. >> i think there's some benefit here. i don't think that either of these folks ryan or trump run i ing, i think there's some benefit of sitting down in the room and having a face-to-face conversation just man-to-man. will this change things? will this mean that donald trump will be accepted by the republican party. no, i don't think so. there's still a lot of work to be done. it's not going to be done in an

office. it's going to be done on the campaign trail. do they feel comfortable with donald trump in his stump speeches. do they feel like his tone has progressed enough to where they feel comfortable having him as or supporting him as the nominee. do they believe his values are their values. is he towing the line of the republican party or is he tries to bring the party down in order to usher in a donald trump era. at the very core they don't know each other at all and there's some benefit to sitting down in a room with each other and having pleasantry conversation. >> let's agree to disagree on that. 7:00 eastern will be joined here by the trump convention manager.

>>seeing is an evolution in the campaign. i saw that last week. i saw that with the foreign policy speech that was given. i saw that on sunday morning on "meet the press." it seems the campaign is evolving in a little different way. what i've been saying to people who so quickly say negative things is let's chill. >> let's chill. that's new language. let me go to gene first. i'm skep cal. why would you want to join the republican leadership club.

they look down on him. >> trump has a point. he did win. he beat them. he beat all these guys in the primary. from experience, the nominee is the nominee. the nominee is in charge. from point of view of conservatives in the republican party and some others, he's not a real conservative. it's difficult for them to fall in line. >> this is a republican party, not a conservative party. >> is trump to come in and

genuflekt or gen genuflect. is ryan supposed to say you're the boss. give me my orders. >> donald trump arrives in washington no so much as winner as a conquerer of the republican establishment. and now an occupier of it. we've seen in recent years that aupgss can go south after the conquering business has been taken care of. donald trump needs a unified party. this isn't about these two men becoming friends. it's about aligning interests. paul ryan doesn't want to compromise his house majority on a candidacy by a candidate who lacks the discipline, lack the control to fix the demographic props th problems that he has in the

race. >> they don't look too bad. >> the numbers in those states where this is going to be fought out very close race. you look inside the numbers and look at his unfavorable levels, that becomes disabling. he has a lot of time to fix it. nobody should be confused about the necessity of him having to fix it. paul ryan said he has used an imperfect word. he said donald trump inherited. he didn't inherit, he won. donald trump is now a steward. he's a trustee of one of the greatest institutions in the history of western civilization. the third oldest political party in the world, the republican party, which has done much for the expansion of human dignity, labor and freedom. the party of lincoln and eisenhower and reagan and giants of american history and donald trump needs to demonstrate an

appreciation for that duty, for that obligation and burden he now carries into a general election. >> thank you so much. you seem like the high priest of the republican party when you speak that way, but i accept your right to do so. it did seem so high priestly the way you gave us the serious venture of which he has launched. here is what hillary clinton said. here is what you're not supposed to say. it's her march statement about cole miner. she made it in west virginia. it could be hunting her as you watch the returns in that state. >> i'm the onlds candidate that has a policy about how to bring economic opportunity using clean renewable into cole country. we're going to put a lot of cole miners and businesses out of business. we're going to make it clear we don't want to forget those people. they labored in those mines for

generations losing their health, often losing their lives to turn on our lights and power our factories. >> you don't have to take that out of context. we're going to close a lot of those cole miners and get them out of work. that's an amazingly dangerous statement to make as you go into a primary or a general. >> it's dangerous statement. it has implications not just for west virginia but for kentucky. clearly for pennsylvania and ohio which are states that could tip the balance in the electoral college. it's the condescension that comes here. they don't view themselves as victims. they don't necessarily view themselves as needing the hand out of federal government. what they want to do is be able to practice their profession, to practice their craft and to do so without the burdensome hand

of the federal government. she's in dangerous territory on this. >> why doesn't she make a statement like if i get elected, it's a lot of hedge fund operators out of business. if she sounded more like a democrat -- >> yeah right. >> that would sound good to most people. >> i think the bernie sanders people would be listening. they would hear a message like that. it was -- >> there's never been a dishonest cole miner. >> hillary clinton is not putting cole out of business. natural gas is putting oil out of business. >> fracking. >> fracking is putting cole out of business. she did it in an audiocassetwkwd damaging. >> they don't like it. they sense these are the elite that live in the big city and make money. >> eight years ago she seemed to

have the opposite. she connected with those people. >> one thing helped. >> of course. a black guy from chicago with a middle name from hussein. >> thank you. the guys will be back with us throughout tonight. the guys, is that all right. still ahead, we count down the poll closings. can donald trump win over the republican establishment? i think he already beat them. this will be a ritual meeting. i want to know who comes out the boss. up next, can republican female voters get in donald trump's column. it's a focus group of women. they voted for mitt romney in 2012. where do they stand now? it's fascinating stuff. you'll learn a lot.

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i was talking to doctors and patients and i have to tell you, it just brought tears to my eyes. people who are getting health care for the first time in years. people who are dealing with problems that they just had to ignore. people who feel healthier, more productive like they can put in a good day's work because they now have the treatments that they deserve and need to have. >> that's a live picture from hillary clinton talking about health care, child development, real down home close to the person concerns of hers, not theory. she's holding a campaign event in louisville. t she's spending some money down there in the bluegrass state.

national polls show hillary clinton ahead with women in head to head match ups with donald trump. among republican women, there's a deeper conflict over the republican nominee. nbc news gathered a focus group of republican women. there was a clear divide over whether trump was acceptable for their party. >> when you look at donald trump, talk about organized. they say he sleeps four hours a night. i just feel like he will be a worker bee in that office sitting there at 2:00 in the morning trying to figure out things. >> donald trump is not a republican. he came out this weekend and said he's willing to raise taxes. raise minimum wage. those are things that are not republican.

>> nobody respects women more than donald trump. she came to my wedding, she ate like a pig. a person who is flat chested is very hard to be a ten. okay. >> i see you treat women with respect? >> i can't say that either. >> there you got it. there's nothing like video tape to bring back the past to the present. i'm joined by tina brown. thank you both. i want to start with a possible interpretation of trump. when he does the fun things in the rallies, explain this to me, he just starts attacking the media, for example. i hear him saying they're a bunch of liars and he goes into that and i ignore it completely. he knows people in the media.

he may have judgments about people. i think it's for crowd. i don't believe a word of it. s he shows up on our shows because he wants to be there. he does not come off as hostile when you talk to him on the phone. i don't know whether women can be that discerning, if that's the right word to say. he says these terrible, awful things but you know deep down he's not a bad guy about women. i think that would be a harder thing to buy than i'm buying. does he mean it when he says things about rosie o'donnel? are these statements that should be ignored or listened to? >> i would ignore them. i think the majority of republican women do. the question you have to ask, does mr. trump have a party with women or does the republican party have a problem with women? republican party has not won the

majority of female voters since 1988 and they only won it by one point. this is an inherited problem that mr. trump is having to deal with. if you look at the number, 57% of the women voted for mr. trump in new york, 53% in pennsylvania. he has relatively high numbers with republican women in the primary whence they go in to vote. as opposed to hillary clinton, considering she's a female from party, a democratic party that supposed to be the party for women. she also has high 58% of democrat women don't like her. her numbers are actually more concerning than mr. trump's. >> if asked was the election held today, which candidate would you choose. hillary clinton beats by five

points. with women voters, clinton beats trump by 19 points. 56-37. that's a serious bit of a problem for this. >> they never stop ignoring women. >> why did that happen because more women voted for nixon than kennedy? >> it's not always been this way. he kind of doubles down and makes it worse. this is extraordinary to me that he would do that. his own record and company

really not so bad. he does promote women and put his daughters into the business. he's actually not reviled by the women who work for him. >> what's his reputation in new york? you're a new yorker. >> i've never really heard that trump is a huge masoginist. he's obviously a big boy, but i've never seen him as that until he got on to the podium. >> let's take a look at the latest focus group. these are women that say, one of them says she doesn't support trump but she's not going for clinton either. listen to this interesting person either. >> i will not vote for secretary clinton. the reason for that is while i think she's a safe choice, i would be okay with her as president. as a woman, i don't think she represents my interests, but as somebody leading this country, i do think she's safe. donald trump, to me, is very

unpredictab unpredictable. >> i think that's so true. that's my analysis of this election with all the other factors out there in play. hillary is a safe democrat. she's not much different from obama. with trump, it's a big risk. i want to ask, how does trump satisfy women and men that he's not risking it and not do something different. >> i think you'll see it. he will lay out who he would appoint. i think conservatives would agree. >> you're doing what the other side is doing. you're running against hillary clinton. you just did it there. you couldn't just sate something good about trump's decision. you had to make it relative. >> i do. it's working. you look at west virginia.

exit polls have showing 50% of bernie sanders supporters say they would vote for trump than hillary. >> i'm astonished how he doubles down on his own weaknesses. bringing in advice and so on, he's voting chris christie to be ahead of his transition. chris christie is really famous as a bully. one of the things that women do not like is a bully. one of the things that hillary is good with is bullies. she sat there for 11 hours in the benghazi hearings. she got badge badgered. >> here is hillary clinton. >> we cannot stand. we can be scapegoating and finger pointing and demeaning and degrading and insulting our

fellow americans. do we have disagreements? yes. that's in the dna. that's healthy. there's lots of different ways to achieve our goals. we set our goals and we have a good back and forth about how we achieve them. you don't do that by demeaning people. that is not what we are. it's time that we said enough. we're willing to have good political debates, but enough with the hate rhetoric and the insults and let's -- >> that's hillary clinton in louisville. this is powerful. this is a powerful problem. i was with j.c. watts, african-american guy, very popular fellow. he said don't believe that sticks and stones will break my bones and words won't. he said that do.

by saying we'll ban mexicans and muslims from the country and saying the president is from africa. this kind of stuff is hateful. how can a guy who is president talk like that or stop talking like that? >> that was a primary. he had his goal. >> he's going to stop calling those names? >> mr. trump will be mr. trump. i love that you brought the word bully. what mr. trump is he's a bully to all of those who have been bullied by others. hillary clinton is probably the biggest bully. she says she wants this healthy conversation and discussion, yet, that's only with people she agrees with. >> i agree with everything you said. i just don't think you gave me a good rebuttal. >> mr. trump can answer his own words. he did what he established.

>> the ends do not justify the means. >> scotty, thank you. we'll hear whether paul ryan can get on board the trump train. just under an hour to go before polls close in west virginia. this is special edition of hardball, the place for politics.

we're back in this special early edition of hardball. stakes remain high as the party leadership such as it is remains splintered. steve, tell us about regular, real, cloth coat republicans. not the rich guys, but the regular voters. >> let's talk about the republicans who voted in primaries and caucuses. one of the things you hear from conservative leaders who don't like trump, you hear this point over and over. they say this was a hostile takeover. more than half of the republicans didn't vote for him. we ran the numbers and take a look. that's true. he won 40.2% of the all the

votes cast in primaries and caucuses. more than half had not voted for donald trump. however, what they leave out when they tell you that stat is the context. take a look at this. four years ago, mitt romney, when he got to that same point where he clenched the nomination, when mitt romney clenched the nomination four years ago. that's when rick santorum and newt gingrich got out of race. what share had romney won? he won 41.5%. how about this? four years earlier, john mccain, what share did he have? he had 39.9%. he was under 40. he still managed to get 90% of the republicans in the fall. mitt romney, 41.5%. he clenched the nomination. john mccain, 39.9%.

what was donald trump's number? it was over 40. he did better than mccain, almost as well as romney. neither did those guys get a majority. >> thanks. >> tlp prump doesn't understand the situation he's in. he's capture only one or two wings of the party. there's also what i call the congressional wing. that's fred. as trump is said to meet later this week in the house and senate, can he make amends or should he? with me is former u.s. congressman, a republican from virginia and april ryan. thank you both. i want to start with tom davis.

is he coming as the boss or a job seeker, which is it? i think ryan is treating him like a job seeker. >> it's a bit of both. they need each other at this point. he's not going to win without buy in from the congressional wing of the party. if these two continue to be at odd, it will be a complete meltdown. they'll have to come to some agreement. >> what do they want him to do, change? he is who he is. do they want him to say i didn't mean that. i meant something else. >> i think that's right. we've seen illusions with some of other candidates that trump

is a different guy behind closed doors. they don't know donald trump. all they see is the public persona who has been beating the heck out of republicans. >> he has great success for what he's done. airline coming in, there's the trump hotel. that would be a lot for a person opinion he's done all this. he's dealt with the unions. he knows how to do it. these guys on capitol hill never done anything. they don't know how to build or do anything. now they'll tell him how to build this country. i don't get it. he ain't going to change for them. he's who he is. are they going to change for him

is my question? is mr. ryan, your cousin, is he going to do something about this or not? just kidding. >> i wonder if he is my cousin. the trump brand is amazing. it's all over the place. you have to remember that the trump brand is moving into a territory that's unchartered for the trump brand, presidency of the united states. donald trump because of that brand, that big brand and that's one thing that donald trump said, if you don't have anything tels, you have your name. the name is branded. there's the arrogance that goes with the brand. he's not going to want to lose. congress understands they have funded projects to help build cities. domds trump and congress it's a bit of something in common. the funding piece. when it comes to trying to be president, donald trump has changed a little bit when it comes to understanding i have to not look at the small picture. i have to go to a broader spectrum. i have to use the rnc and their

data to my advantage. i may have to go into their cap and do what they say. at the same time the republicans have to dance. they are trying to work it out for the sake of unity and for the sake of donald trump being branded. what is the brand of the republican leadership? we'll have to figure that out. when we come back, the hardball roundtable will join us. the numbers are close. amazingly close in florida, ohio, pennsylvania and our own nbc poll across the country. it's only five-point spread. just about 45 minutes to go before polls close in west virginia. have an interesting result there. bernie could win there. this is special edition of hardball, the place for politics.

welcome back. the new polls show a close race in three battleground states. we know where they are. clinton leads trump by a single point in florida. that's a pick. she's ahead a single point in pennsylvania where i think the election will be decided. i'm surprised he's not doing better in ohio. polls have shown clinton under performing compared to other polls. this may be an outlier. this must be taken seriously because it's nbc. that shows a five-point spread for hillary. not insurmountable.

>> we're anxious to see -- >> who she is. i feel confident that hillary will be the nominee. make what what you will of those numbers. i think it gives a certain bounce. a quickness in his step. >> it does. it's great shot in the arm especially after coming off c n clench the nomination and having this big public fight with the bush's and the paul ryan. these numbers are showing that the american people are really dissatisfied in the direction the country is going.

the clinton campaign should be worried. his support ers stood out in the freezing cold to see him. >> is rg ready to go. kelly says support. she hasn't said endorsed. >> you have a nominee and somebody fighting a primary. they're not really apples to

apples. >> you don't believe these numbers are close? >> no. it had romney beating obama. >> he was. >> all that matters is the end. >> during the primaries we have never said hillary or bernie. the republicans were trump and cruz. we never said ted. we never talk comfortably like that. we got to agree on first names or surnames. >> i think we'll go with surnames. that's where we'll end up. about those numbers. there's a long list of republican candidates about 16

of them who dismiss numbers that they thought were wrong. i think it's reckless to dismiss the numbers. i think they say something about clinton's negatives. they're not as high as trumps, but that doesn't mean they don't exist. >> don't be afraid to see what you see. he was talking about doctors reports and bad symptoms. he was talking about tests but it's the same with politics. >> every race should be treated as a close race. >> would you be a better mayor? >> every race should be treated

as a close race. i'm for jobs. >> thank you. they'll be staying with us. we have much more coming up on this special edition of "hardball." paul is in west virginia. this is hardball, the place for politics.

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getting an interview with him. hillary clinton is facing a tough challenge from senator sanders. you're watching hardball, the place for politics.

welcome back. polls in west virginia will be closing in 30 minutes now. it was a busy day in republican politics. marco rubio and ted cruz declined to throw their full support behind donald trump. here they are. >> he's the nominee of the republican party or the presumptive nominee. i respect that and accept