if it's monday, it's a mountain of new information in our new poll. how much is trump's lack of experience in government hurting him and how do feels of president obama factor into all of it? this is mtb daily and it starts right now. good evening. welcome to mtb daily. i'm steve core makornacki. and we have most new numbers in including new details that help explain the fight between donald trump and hillary clinton. it is now neck and neck. let me show you what i mean.

the headline, hillary clinton in a newer poll, her lead down to three points over donald trump. a month ago, it was 11 points. now 46 for clinton, 43 for trump. what happened, why is this so much tighter? big part of it is trump bringing republicans home. a lot of concern back then among republicans, could the party unite. look at this, in the last month, a jump of 14 points in the number of republicans who say sner's going to be with donald trump against hillary clinton this fall. he's now getting 86% of republicans. that is the big reason why this is suddenly a three point race. that 86% contrast that to what hillary clinton is getting right now from dwm democrats. clinton still has the campaign with bernie sanders and the

polls show some evidence that bernie sanders supporters are resistant right now to supporting hillary clinton in the fall. one of tfof the reasons why the is so close. you look back to put this all in perspective, right now donald trump getting 86% of republicans. mitt romney ended up with 93, so trump getting close. hillary clinton getting 83% of democrats. obama ended up with 92 in 2012. so both getting close to the numbers that their are nominees got four years ago. and new, what issues are resonating? let's start on trump. these are the issues where donald trump does the best against hillary clinton.

changes the businessing ing in . trade. wall street. the economy an 11 point advantage. standing up for america, a 14 point advantage for trump. what about hillary clinton? women, look at that, 467 poin7 . handling foreign policy, a 2:1 advantage for hillary clinton there. looking out for the middle class, big poichbts nt of empha. being a good commandner chief, 10 point lead there. and having the ability to unite the country, neets one of them doing that well there, but again hillary clinton doing better than donald trump. so her advantages. and also this question here, donald trump, he would be the first without president without

government or military experience, 42% say that makes them uncomfortable. so a concern for trump to get over there. and of course look at this, the bottom line in this, voting for a candidate or are you vote against a donald trump, 58% of voters have a negative view of donald trump, but hillary clinton almost as high when it comes to the negative personal rating. this really is looking like an election where people aren't so much voting for a dcandidate as they are voting against a candidate. for more, i'm joined by our team of expert reporters. kristen welker, indicati katy t marg murder mark murray.

chris t so now a neck and neck race. there is cause for concern. at the same team, you can see there is an opportunity if she can unite the democratic party, bring the sanders voters in, there is an opportunity here for her to gain ground. >> there absolutely is. to your first points, the clinton campaign saying they're not surprised by these numbers. i've plabeen talking to them ab a trump matchup since the summer. and they have always said he's going to be a tough competitor. he is unpredictable. at the same time, he has clinched his own party's nomination, so are you seeing republicans rally around him more quickly than some anticipated. but the clinton campaign i saying they are still locked in

the battle with bernie sanders. and that is the toughest thing for clinton.they are still lock battle with bernie sanders. and that is the toughest thing for clinton. gets bernie sanders on board with her. today we learn the dnc will give sanders a big role in shaping the platform if he does win. he had been pushing for that, but she really needs him to campaign with her to make the case to his supporters that they should get on board with her about that but they have still locked in these bottis battle. and you can expect to see both candidates in california. and secretary clinton will be squarely focused on donald trump on the trail. we saw that today in detroit and she took aim at him saying key

bankrupt the economy. so some of the strongest we've heard. >> and katy tur, on the trump side of things, they have that stride. a lot of concern, but it looks like among republican votes they are are getting to that point but still more work to be done. where do they see opportunity when they look at this poll sf. >> they see opportunity when it comes to independents and people who just really don't like hillary clinton. and what they have been trying do as we have been saying, they have been sewing the seed of doubt into chlintonclinton's ch questioning whether she was on the side of her political career or really on the side of women. one of the weaknesses is donald

trump his experience level, a number of republican voter -- general electorate voters saying they are uncomfortable with trump with no experience in the military. and bob corker, highest ranking help leader to visit donald trump on his turf. and we asked him if this was part of potential vp speculation, was he being considered. he demured on it, but sources tell nbc news that he is an extraordinarily popular figure here at the fifth avenue headquarters. donald trump likes him because praised his foreign policy speech last lopts. he also fills a lot of gaps in donald trump's experience level.

he has legislative experience. and he is chairman of the foreign relations committee, something donald trump has lacked. so he would definitely be an addition it to the ticket. whether he would expand the electorate because he's not from a battleground state, that is still a large question. but certainly the beginnings of the campaign trying to reach out and see whog wouing who would bt with the campaign. >> all right. katy tur it, thanks. let's bring in mark murray. we can look at race.it, thanks. let's bring in mark murray. we can look at race.t, thanks. let's bring in mark murray. we can look at race., thanks. let's bring in mark murray. we can look at race. african-americans, latinos, strong support for hillary

clinton. h donald trump doing well with whites. what stands out to me, this looks an awful loth like what we saw in 2012. the same breakdown for bocobama injury success romney. if donald trump is basically setting here with mitt romney was in 2012, that says he's doing a little stronger than skeptics were are saying he would do. >> i think one of the biggest story lines so far has been how quickly donald trump has been able to unify rank and file republicans. even paul ryan hasn't endorsed him. but it looks like we're in october of 2012 just with some of the democrats who have jet to come on board. the bernie sanders feel for hillary clinton.but barack obama

a win in 2012 riding the coattails of african-americans. it is a close race and i was truck how well trump is doing when it comes to the questions of the economy. >> mark murray, thanks. let's turn to the trump campaign. sam being thanks for joining us.

so it is a tighter race than a month ago. republicans coming home., being us. so it is a tighter race than a month ago. republicans coming home.so it i month ago. republicans coming home. it does look like there is an opportunity for hillary clinton to get the sanders supporters. and some of the groups, latino, african-americ african-americans, no inroads so far for donald trump. what is your reaction? >> i think the most important number you spoke about is 168. 168 days to the election. we have to go through the summer and then to labor day and the mad dash to the finish. and i think you will see a lot of dynamics in it. the one thing i'm encouraged by is the fact that we have caughtcaught up with her. i look back to the reagan years 1980 when he ran against jimmy

carter and he was behind as many as 40 points at this point. so i think i'm very encouraged by what we see. and i think a lot of the demographics will clapg. chafrng. >> when you look at the bernie sanders supporters who are holdouts right now from hillary clinton, a lot of people say this is inevitable. eight years ago hillary clinton support ares were furious at obama. in the end democrats came home. to you look and say likely that will happen again here? >> yes, but i don't think it will matter. a lot of people still have not gotten their heads around is the fact that we have a different electorate this time around.

>> the other variable everybody is trying to account for, the turnout of nonwhite voters. it wasn't just that they over well pingly went for braarack obama. when i look at the develop grasps, do you think you will see the high turnout level again or will it go down. >> i think it will go down a

little bit. take a look at the millennial. i think without bernie on the ticket somewhere along the line, that number will drop precept precipitously. they're a very large voting bloc. >> selooks like we have a weath issue out there. appreciate him joining us. much more on all the new numbers we have. we'll share them thought the hour. and up next, how the democratic battle a hurting or maybe hillary clinton's chances in november. i'll ask a clinton strategist

how will they will win over the bernie sanders voters. ♪ one coat, yes! ♪ there is a y, for every number. ♪ there is a time, for all my slumbers. ♪ one coat guaranteed marquee interior. behr's most advanced paint. get the best paint for any budget and save 10 or 40 bucks. only at the home depot.

>> i'll not pollyanish, but there is still some basis. presented carter says he'll be malleable. i don't know.

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there is noefd he has any ideas with making america great as he advertises. he seems to be focuses on making position appear great p. and we will demonstrate the hollowness of his receihetorirh. >> at the moment they don't appear to be to go much for her. her lead now gown to three points. we will talk to a sfraechlgist later it in the show. here's what bernie sanders said just a few micew minutes a ago. >> that poll had us 15 point ahead of donald trump. and if the democrats want to be absolutely certain as we must be that donald trump never becomes

president, our campaign is the strongest campaign. >> let's bring in tonight's panel. welcome to all. i've heard over and over again that he would lose by historic proportions. i heard it all. i'm looking at this hole and it looks like romney/bocobama all r again. >> i think it will be a tight race the flex finext five month. but a lot of polling for trump is its own concerns about him. and it's more motive, not

necessarily policy specific. so i think that his character test over the next five months will be paramount. >> douchk republicans -- i know there are still issues are donors and party leaders. but republican voters over the course of last month, trump jumped big. gu think the ramp and fire would unify this quickly. >> it's striking how quickly they have. part of it is that the republican voters on issues like entitlements and other things are closer to are trump than the party elite. he's almost like a third party candidate coming in. but he's managed something that hasn't yet happened for the democrats. >> and that is the question here. when this democratic race finally stops, can hillary clinton pull in support from the

bu bernie sanders people. but some say no, we don't care, we're just gechagainst hillary. >> and sort of amazing that hillary is still having trouble locking up this nomination. i would have not actual be trump the guy who has had no elective experience and has had fun beat up on his party members would have trunouble. but it seems to be hillary clinton. >> trump seems to be having fun baiting the democrats saying bernie should be running third party. but there is no hope about winning own buernie sanders student supporters.

>> he will get some of it, but not the sbhirity. >> and turnout has been low as it always is in both parties in the primaries. >> we've seen records on the republican side. >> but primaries are much small than the general election. and the one thing different, he's anti-free trade and he's saying to people in the rest rust belt, people in coal mining company, i'll bring your be job back and foreigners are at fault. there may not be that many of veert vote ares who are former rust belt voters. >> and you have him on standing up for america.r ares who are f

belt voters. >> and you have him on standing up for america.ares who are for belt voters. >> and you have him on standing up for america.res who are form belt voters. >> and you have him on standing up for america.es who are formet voters. >> and you have him on standing up for america.s who are former voters. >> and you have him on standing up for america. >> he's had years where he's pre-techbd eten tended to be soy who can do something about the any. and his antics standing up for the little guy. and who better than the clintons to beat up on. and here comes trump capital lizing on all that. >> we knew donald trump's unfavorable number has been high for a long time. it's actually come down a little bit. >> i think what you see with these primaries that drag on and on is whoever it is seems to be bloodied as they come across the

finish line. bill clinton at this point was in third place. >> by the way, people -- i've seen people make a compare ton to clinton '92 and trump today saying trump did all this damage to positihimself. >> i think the polling numbers in february and in october tell you a lot more than may or june. there are basic fundamentals in the electorate. and i'm not the sure how much of a difference the candidates can make. but when this primary is over, if she win, she will be able to consolida consolidate. but she needs to find dramatic ways of showing that she's bringing the party together. the challenge for her is the flip side of her strength. she's regarded as very strong, she's regarded as really knowledgeable. but also maybe a little predi predictab predictable. and she has a lot of deep

underlying potential support among the democrats. she has to made make that a real movement. >> so do you say this one has a better chance of turning it around? >> i think it's a pretty level playing field. both are disliked. but what i find the most interesting is that clinton is perceived as being good on foreign policy, good on where i am women's issue, trump wins on the economy. i guarantee the election will be about the economy. >> i think that is the most worrisome issue if you're a democrat. >> how the gdp goes in the beginning of an presidential election year and the president's approval rating turn out to predict a lot more than

one thing or another. >> and trump leading on issues about the economy, there was a clinton who once said it's the economy, stupid. and if she's leading on foreign policy, it will be hard to capitalize on that against trump. and just ahead, will clinton's november chances suffer if the democratic guide carries on for much longer? more on how sanders' supporters will split this november. and joel ben ben miss son will be here 37 and new data that could special trouble for trump.

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whatever regional nickname you use, coal country or the rust belt, whatever you call it, donald trump's path to the white house runs right through it. trump could be in trouble. check out today's map. right outside detroit, famous home of the reagan democrats all those years ago. and it could be very good for trump in a lot of ways. it's less diverse than the country as a whole. fewer clen fewer college educated, manufacturing households. all groups good for trump. but whatever says trump could seriously hurt him next door in oakland county. voters right there are more diverse, they have higher incomes, more highly educated. and the same story just outside burkes county. home to a lot of white voters.

and right next door is montgomery county, well educated, fewer manufacturing jobs. across the midwest, blue coal a collar voters live next goor do college educated supporters who want a different message. so solving the riddle could be key to wing the white house. up next, joel beneson on the new poll and what is behind a big convention concession for the bernie sanders campaign. the dow falling 8, the nasdaq sheds about 3. shares of monsanto gained more than 4%. germany's bayer is offering for buy them for $62 billion. the two companies began merge inner talks earlier this it

month. and gas prices are up five cents the past two weeks. crude prices have moved hider. that's it from cnbc. ♪

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when you have a whole lot of for the bei folks not happy with the democratic party and the republican party and for a variety of reasons many regis r registering as independents, those people have to be brought into the democratic party. to me if i was chairman of the democratic party, that would be one of my major priorities. bring them in, make the case. but the dem being partity is more vel rapt and that is something that we will do in

philadelphia. >> that was bgs juernie sanders. and december sigspite new evide it's hurting hillary clinton, jeff weaver indicated today that sanders will potentially not be even endorsing clinton. just 66% say they're with clinton, 17% evof them plan to support donald trump. in 2008, just 21% felt that the drawn out race was good for the party. sanders also scoring a win dw d today. he will get five seats on the platform drafting committee for the convention. clinton will get six seats on that panel. here with me now, the guy who knows about polling, joel pbe

benes beneson. there is room for hillary clinton to grow. is this a particular challenge? a lot of the sanders voters are not regular organization democrats. they're independents, outside the party. how do you bring them in? >> i think it's important to remember that in 2008, at this points your poll had barack obama ahead of mccain by two points and hillary clinton the reverse, 60% said they wouldn't support barack obama. in the end we unified the party. we have work to do. >> is it a different challenge this time. they were part of the democratic infrastructure.

sanders supporters are outside the party. >> but they participated for a reason. their values i believe are much moral lined with ours and hillary clinton. h hillary clinton has said there is a lot less that separates us. they will be the nominee. the math is pretty clear. she only needs about a third of the pledged sdel delegates. and she will be the nominee and we'll work harded to bring them all into the general election. >> you have jeff weaver hints that sanders if there is an endorsement of clinton, it didn't come until the convention. and when you match bernie sanders against donald trump, sanders is up 16, clinton up 3. >> let's talk about electability. hillary clinton has more than almost 3 million votes more than bernie sanders and bernie sanders has a million two votes

more than trump. and that's where it koucit count the eboballot box. >> trump had 16 opponents, clinton had one. >> and that's tougher. at the end of the day, she has 3 million more votes than bernie sanders and that is a measure of strength. hillary clinton has won significantly with vote ares over the age of 30 if you look it the all the voter ares 30 up, she's won by almost 2:1.ares ovr the age of 30 if you look it the all the voter ares 30 up, she's won by almost 2:1. we've won in the battle ground states. we're the stronger candidate nationally when you look at both the popular vote and winning this battleground states. >> so in this 2008, hillary clinton at this point was still

saying i'll win the superdelegates because of the elect ability argument. >> and she's much closer in plem pledge willd delegates. she has more than twice as high as it was over hillary clinton. that was a very hard-fought campaign. it went to the end. i think senator sanders said a couple weeks ago that he has to do everything and will do everything to defeat donald trump in november. i believe that includes he will line up behind her and he will help keep his supporters animated, activated because donald trump poses a threat to this country when it comes to foreign policy and national security. >> there is a key question on timing. when you're saying when hillary clinton is nominee, when at the coffin ven

convention, she gets super delegates. is that the time table? >> it is clear that she will be the nominee of the democratic party. >> so you want him to unify? >> i think these decisions are up to him, but the sosooner we y hoping for the housing bust because he will make more money on it, this xwi guy has no inte in helping anybody but himself. that's danger to people's economic lives. >> all right. joel beneson, thanks for the time. and ahead, how one florida congressional candidate is cashing in on support for bernie sanders as he takes on not a republican but the chair of the

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we are coming to the end of the democratic primaries. i applaud senator sanders and supporters for challenging us and we are going to unify the democratic party and stop donald trump. >> that was hillary clinton continuing her pivot to the general election, but bernie sanders is not getting out of her way. moments ago, sanders called on her to keep her word in debate him in california before the june 7th primary there. time for the lid joined by ozzie, center for justice executive director michael waldman and elyce jordan. bernie sanders says look, there is an agreement here. we had the debate in new york and california primary is coming up. i know hillary clinton probably has less than zero interest in doing this. is there any chance she gets

pressured into doing a debate? >> debates over debates don't usually move foots and she does well when she does these debates so i'm sure they may want to duck it but may wind up doing it just as much. what is interesting with sanders and clinton is are there issue differences that make it harder for their people to unite than hillary clinton versus barack obama where it was more two compelling individuals than less -- >> when we had joe out here, ozz ozzie, he was saying what will unite sanders supporters and clinton supporters is simply donald trump. >> she's a good debater and if she has an opportunity to stand up and say bernie sanders and i agree let's stop trump, that seems like a great opportunity and the longer they let a debate about a debate go on, it gives sanders supporters reason to not rally later on. >> that's part of the problem that hillary clinton is not position she's in right now because it was perceived as having stacked the deck against bernie sanders from the

beginning which was completely was and sanders supporters feel that way. that animosity is built to the point she's stuck waiting and waiting and waiting and it's hurting her chances. >> joel said he expects, wants and expects bernie sanders when june 7th comes and goes, i guess june 14th -- but not the convention. june 14th, bernie sanders has lost the pledged delegate count will be behind and he wants him out then. >> look, i understand very much why sanders wants to run up the score as much as he can to get leverage on the platform to get his movement, his candidacy as far ahead as he can. why would he not try to do that? the real question is, you know, we're all still even in this conversation, trump is sort of a normal republican candidate. we just heard that a far right nativest candidate almost was elected president or prime

minister of austria. we have not had a nativest, p populapo populace candidate and there will be a lot of issues in the democratic party and those of color and african americans to get going against trump. he's a terrifying figure to a lot of people in the democratic party. >> how does hillary clinton run against departme against donald trump? they tried to start a meme of dangerous donald, democrats would go and attach that label and some said wait a minute, that almost sounds like a term of endearment but do you just get up there and shame him and say he's irresponsible, he's not fit to be president, we, we are better than this. that seems to be the strategy. is that how you run against the guy? >> the under exploited element is conn artist donald and i think that that is what the republican candidates -- >> give him his own nickname. >> the conartist element that why won't you show your tax

returns? how much money are you really worth? are you hiding? those unanswered questions he has. >> do you think tax return stuff works? >> i think it does because it goes at the very heart of who he is. he -- his last name stands for bei being winning. that's the emotional appeal. if they are able to say you're a fraud, you filed for bankruptcy four times or your companies have, you built stuff in atlantic city. if they are able to say one thing you've identified as your strength is your weakness, that's really at the core of their best chance. >> but what would be -- for trump, what's the exposure because if he paid a low rate, he could say look, i'm a good businessman and that's what one does. he doesn't lose money anywhere but maybe his income is revealed. >> it will be so much less. >> it could be his wealth is so much less. hillary clinton said how do you go bankrupt running a casino?

that's tough. but i think that the tax issue, though, is a sleeper issue. as mitt romney found out, people don't like it when somebody who is tremendously wealthy pays so much less than they do even if he can sort of say well, i've been gaming the system and i'm proud of it. i think it's a challenge and makes it a typical democrat republican race and that helps the democrats. >> it's interesting, his appeal is so blue collar in the way romney, a businessman, businessman but romney didn't have a blue collar appeal. >> i think that that blue collar appeal is fleeting if it doesn't hold up on paper because part of trump's appeal is he's worth $10 billion and so wealthy. you strip that away and what's left? he's a fraud. he's a regular liar and -- >> well, mitt romney ultimately the pressure got to him and he put out the tax returns. donald trump is saying it's nobody's business.

going to be back here with more and wi"with all due respect stas right now". "with all due respect" name recognition. >> senator bob was seen going into trump tower with donald trump. >> who is that guy? >> i don't know who that is. >> nothing. ♪ ♪ >> tonight we're uncorking fresh polling data for all y'all because the political world guzzled down the general election head-to-head dead head matchup numbers between donald trump and hillary clinton that came out over the weekend. the new digits also show the ratings in a race that is again