that's it for us on this hump day. "with all due respect" starts right now. good evening on the show tonight. we're talking about donald trump's very troubled run and what it means for the 2016 presidential race. there's no better place to begin that talk, looking at the latest

numbers. yesterday we showed you clinton leading. the numbers released today are no better for the republican presumptive nominee. 66% of the likely voters in our poll said they had an unfavorable view of donald trump. abc news washington post national poll has the number higher, it's 70% unfavorable. when we asked voters if they could consider voting for trump, 55% said never. these polls add to what has ban tsunami of negative headlines for trump over the past 24 hours be p the orlando massacre and his ongoing war with news organizations. if you worked with the trump campaign, let's say it's not been a very good day to sit by the tele. >> the latest trump comments have republican leaders swarming. >> the new bloomberg poll shows a major decline for donald trump trailing hillary clinton by

double digits. that's not even the worse part. an overwhelming 55% of those polls say they could never vote for trump as well as 63% of women say that they could never support him. >> the polls that cently came out show donald trump with a 70% unfavorable rating. nobody has gotten elected president of the united states with a 70% unfavorable. >> people don't like what they are hearing. they are starting to turn against him. a significant number have started to turn against him. >> there's trump's latest fight with the media. >> it's been a lot of controversy. his numbers are gone south. not only is that lead pretty significant for clinton, the trend is what's got to be troubling for donald trump. it's been a month of controversy. >> after trump's comments yesterday, you have paul ryan

and mitch mcconnell agreeing with barack obama about his take on muslims. >> what is this? >> that's a bad information flow for the republican. donald trump seems to realize he's man alone on an island right now. at rally he made it clear that being a alone with okay with him. >> the republicans, honestly, folks, our leaders have to get tougher. this is too tough to do it alone. i think i'm going to be forced to. our leaders have to get a lot tougher. just be quiet. they have to get tougher. they have to get sharper. we have to have our republicans stick together or let me do it by myself. i'm going to do very well. >> based on our poll and everything else and trump's

attitude as reflected there, how big are his current troubles? >> they're pretty big. that reaction today is maybe the deepest trouble of all. you and i hear from people every day on twitter and other place who is cast around dispersions on trump and say he suffers from narcissistic personality disorder. the notion you can go it alone and become the president of the united states with no help from anyone, it's all me. it's all going to be is not in touch with reality. it's not in touch with reality. being not in touch with reality makes it hard to win a presidential race. >> i don't care how sympathetic one is to trump plays by different rules, he's lost a lot of news cycles in a row. he's losing news cycles and republicans are noticing as much as anybody else. people will make a snap judgment

that the race is over. trump can't fight back. there's a lot of time left in this race, but where he is right now is in a very bad place. nothing he's done this week, so far, has turned things around. >> let' be clear, we saw when we started polling trump that trump had very bad numbers. very bad numbernumbers. he improved there. there were questions about his tenor and comments. now you're in this general election, much bigger electorate. a lot of available voters who are not on trump's side. they're trying to figure it out. the things he's said and done, there's a good case to make that they may have turned those people off permanently. >> he turned things around. now he's running against two

people, hillary clinton and barack obama who can command the stage just as much as he can. he's got a big problem. >> he's got a very big problem. donald trump's dubious week may be more dire than the national poll numbers suggest. all eyes are on the republican leaders who trump seems to be telling to be quiet today. notably mitch mcconnell and paul ryan. neither have heeded trump's advice to shush. they have been critical of trump's rhetoric since they endorsed him last month. both dodged questions about his yesterday. with all that mind, we decided and thinking about this to call the main sources of trump's prevail, the three ds. there's the data. there are the donors, those big dollar backers who have stayed largely on the sideline and

there's the ongoing dispension, third d, within trump's campaign. let's start with first d. what kind of data, beyond public poll numbers that we talked about, what kind of private poll numbers are spooking republicans? >> there's a period when they said, trump may win. he may not. he probably won't. we're going to get a lot of donations from people who don't give it to trump and we're going to support our majority. they're going to poll a lot in the next week and see how this is affecting things. the minute they think he will cost them their majority, their view of the world will change dramatically. they are beginning the hear from people it might. if it become reality before the convention, i believe mcconnell and ryan could do to move that. >> changing the rules.

the trouble as they look at these numbers, if they embrace trump, they are worried about getting dragged down and if they distance themselves, they are seeing themselves being dragged down. that's a horrible catch 22. i run away from nominee, i lose. a lot of people start thinking what would be unthinkable. it's a top of the ticket loses, by five, six, seven, you start getting above seven pointings, no senate candidate who can survive that. you look at how races. people say there's 25, 30 seats max in play. if trump's going to lose by the kind of numbers we have in our poll, they're going to bring some races into play that no one is thinking about like in a normal tsunami year.

what's going on with the republican donor class. >> there are donors who got on the trump band wagon reluctantly and are worried, worried. there's all those concerns before and did not get on the bandwagon. none of them have any plans to join up with the trump forces any time in the foreseeable future. >> some have been charmed by trump and they like him. they're not trying to stand up to him. there's a group of people hoping to use the leverage of the donors. trump gave a speech last tuesday, that donors would be happy with. they are freaked out by his lack

of discipline and the inabilities of reince priebus and others to have influence over his behavior. they are now feeling as negatively about trump, as a group, not everybody, but overall as anybody in the party. >> that just means backing, the thing we talked about in the beginning. in a situation where donors think trump will lose but it's survivable in the house and senate, they will take all their money and not give to trump but give it to these down ballot races. if they see this is a titanic, they just like sit on their wallets. they're rich guys. they're happy to keep their wallets and checkbooks closed. >> base on what trump's already done, assuming he makes no additional mistake t i think after bernie sanders is out of the race, you'll see republican donors raising money for hillary

clinton. >> how much do you think that is playing in trump's current woes. >> they all go through rough spots. when they do, the smart campaigns reach out. even if they wet the bed -- >> that's a horrible image. >> the trump campaign disarray and confusion now. which is their super pac. how are they organizing states, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera? that disarray is freaking peek out. when a campaign is going through turbulence, you have to see stability and cohesiveness. it's freaking people out and frustrating them. >> if you talk to corey's

friends and paul manafort's friend, none of them will look you in your eye and say my guy is running the show. none of them. no matter who you side with, no one asserts who is running the campaign at this point. most of them won't say there's really a campaign. >> if the trump campaign would reassure the donors the, we're going to pick a great running mate, we're going to be really prepared for the debate, that would settle people down. the confusion is not giving people confidences. they will miss the marks on those big moments be. >> people around domgds trump couldn't stop him from doing the damage in the last couple of weengs, who's going to stop them. democrats are gearing up another big fight over gun safety, gun control. we'll talk more about what's happened in the senate with the filibuster after this quick word from our sponsors. their business becomes our business.

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it's a battle over guns that seems to be getting the most attention. on monday night on the house floor, to remember the orlando victims, a handful of democrats walked out. today, donald trump tweeted, i will be meeting with the nra, who has endorsed me. senate democrats led by chris murphy spent the afternoon filibustering a spending bill in an attempt to add amendments to prevent the loophole of purchasing guns at gun show ps purchasing guns at gun show pho. >> someone that represents the community of sandy hook, which is still grieving today, i'm

going to stand on this floor and talk about our experience in sandy hook, orlando's experience and needs to come together on this issue of making sure that dangerous people who have designs on mass murder don't get dangerous weapons, as long as i can, so we can give time to try to figure out path forward. >> joe biden is expected to deliver a speech tonight. the question is whether this is a temporary squirmish or is this a leading indicator of meaningful change? >> i think it's a pretty big moment. i don't want to overstate it. you have congressional democrats being as aggressive, mirroring hill clinton who's the most aggressive gun control add vvoc. i'm not sure what the trump tweet means. it does suggest in democrats

take the senate and eat into the house majority that hillary clinton has the chance to claim mandate to try to pass gun control measures. that would be quite different than her democrat predecessors to start that way. >> we don't know what the trump tweet means. mitch mcconnell said he might, first time i've heard him say, he would be open to considering some kind of gun control change. i think it's not impossible. it's a low probability, but it's not impossible on a couple of these issues, particular on the no fly, that we could get legislation passed on this in the next few weeks. >> i think you can get it through the senate but not the house. getting it through the senate would be a big win. there's the chance democrats

will push this for momentum. >> i think you're right. this is a different issue than it's been for 20 years now. hillary clinton's campaign could choose to sit back in its brooklyn headquarters and wait and watch while all their opponents self-destruct. instead, clinton has been aggressive. she's kept the pressure up on our republican rival. she did it again today at the air and space center in hampton, virginia. >> not one of donald trump's reckless ideas would have saved a single life in orlando. it's just more evidence he's temperamentally unfit andunqual

commander in chief. >> what can she do to take advantage, aggressively, of trump's problems? >> i think she's doing it. you saw yesterday, if i were a democratic master strategist and coordinate everything, i'd have hillary clinton and barack obama on a series of issues hammering trump, being in the news, doing it in tandem and trying to turn every policy issue into a character issue. the way trump has been behaving lately, he'll give them plenty of fodder. >> i say three things and they're doing all of them. one is her performance continues to be so much better than it was. no more shouting. confidence discussion of trump. if she can get that performance level up and get into the base that way and convention will make a huge difference. second is the battleground states, focusing on data. be ready to have operations that trump can't match. kit be worth several points in a close race.

finally, republicans, the courting of republicans, figuring out how to time the announcement of support not just of national figures but prominent people in the battleground state. l local officials. it's going to be a back breaking thing opinion it's going to get a ton of attention when it happens. >> i believe priorities have been up for a month. the clinton campaign will go up on the air soon too. donald trump has been taking his long turn in the barrel it's hard to imagine the five months between now and november, will go without hillary clinton having a bad week of her own. her numbers aren't as bad as trump but still pretty high. 54% had an unfavorable view of the nominee. what are the things that might

likely happen. most likely things that could happen that could send hillary clinton into the barrel? >> the biggest threat is those favoring trump. chances are lower. obviously, the e-mail controversy gives potential. the other thing is another scandal involving the clintons and the clinton foundation. then i think a gaffe of huge proportions. hillary clinton hates being in the barrel. >> we talked about the e-mail thing endlessly.

raising a huge red flag around hillary clinton's e-mail. we have wondered if the server was secure or not. it raises the question of whether hers was. up next, republican ad maker and hillary clinton supporter walk into a studio and talk about donald trump. that's not the beginning of a joke. it's our next segment. we'll be right back. veggies... and herbs needed to create a pop-up pick-your-own juice bar in the middle of the city, so now everyone knows... we have some of the freshest juice in town.

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hey guys! now i'm back. aleve pm for a better am. joining us now, the former democratic congressman from tennessee and a big hillary clinton supporter, harold ford junior and the strategist, fred davis. i want to start with the big 30,000-foot question. fred, is the press overstating donald trump's predicament or is it pretty bad? >> it hasn't been his best week. it hasn't been his best couple of weeks. i think that's being overstated is this is going to last forever. i think they will get their act together. i think corey and paul will work

together fine. i think he will be the nominee and come out of convention a much stronger little party than you see now. >> if secretary clinton said what should i be worried about, what should she worry about? >> i think she's handled this week week. not allow donald trump to dominate every news cycle and she's getting her message out. two, she was able to engage president obama very early whether the president's worried about legacy, whether he's worried about many of his achievements being undone. she got the president in june. i didn't expect to see him at this level of involvement in this aggressive level of involvement. >> that's a very smart answer but nonresponsive. is there anything she should be worried about now? >> i would agree with fred. this is not a decisive week.

it's a very good week. donald trump has proven he's resilient. so many of his supporters continue to stand with him. it's early. i think this will be a long race. for anyone to believe this one week will decide this, it's misguided at worst. >> okay. harold and fred will stay with us. we'll come back. we have a lot more from our bloomberg politics national poll where we ask likely voters who they think the nominees should pick as their running mates. we'll talk about those names as well as more deep inside the data about trump and clinton right after this. and chicken. atanera. food as it should be. hi! hey! i've made plans for later in case this date doesn't go well. same here. wouldn't it be great if everyone said what they meant? the citi double cash card does. earn 1% cash back when you buy, and 1% as you y. double means double.

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around. i want to ask fred, we had this, we did this bloomberg politics national poll. one of the things we asked was who their picks were for the party nominees. the list of potential running mates for donald trump, i'm going to give you the top four. fred i'm going to get your reaction. gi newt gingrich at 29%, rubio at 24%. what do you think of the idea of newt gingrich as his running mate? >> i love newt. i think he's man of great ideas. i think his strength is the chairman of the board. the guy that gets out and use the bully pulpit all over america. he needs somebody back home that's an operating officer. i'm prejudice as well, but i would put kasich at the top of my list. he's proven he can get things

done and work on both sides of the aisle while donald is out being donald. >> do you think kasich could that i can that gig if offered? >> i don't think he would. i wish he would. we haven't talked about it. i think he made his piece with his run for presidency and really happen to be back in ohio. >> i think newt is a very smart guy. i think fred's probably right about the kind of need that donald trump has. not sure, senator, not sure, 15%.

secretary castro, 12%. elizabeth warren the top choice of democrats. i believed there was no chance that hillary clinton would pick her but that suggests pretty popular support. >> she will keep an open mind. i don't know senator warren well. she's the most effective critique of donald trump and follow up with an equally impressive one. i know corey booker could help manage and help relations in the congress. i don't know secretary castro. i know tim cane and sherrod brown would bring a lot to the ticket and help mrs. clinton shore some constituency support. >> you're an elusive man, who do you think would be the best vice presidential pick? you named a bunch of people that would be good, but who would be the best? >> all these folks could be

good. who helps her win and helps her with constituents we need the most help with. if you look at geography, i think those guys bring a lot to the table. >> 62% unfavorable. is donald trump helping or hurting the republican brand now? >> i think he's changing the republican brand. it remains to be seen whether it's helping or hurting. it's hurting this week. of course it's hurting a little bit. in the long run, i'm of the feeling that he is bringing new people and new excitement to the republican party. it's a party that's been a little confused through the primary process. i think there's a clarity there and whether the establishment likes the clarity or not, we'll see how it turns out. it's a possible positive.

>> fred, does it not worry you today, we played donald trump saying today, i may have go it alone here. i don't care about. if i have to do this on my own, i'll do it on my own. republican leaders should be quiet and let me get on with the business of running for president. i don't need them. i can do it on my own. is that a sensible strategy or way of looking at the world when you're major party nominee? >> it probably wouldn't have been my advice to him. you know what it's like in that seat and with paul ryan and mitch mcconnell and people very sharp, very good establishment politicians, nipping at your heels, what are you going to do? domgds tru donald trump is not the type to sit back and say fall in line. he's out there fighting for his every breath and he will continue to do that. i think that's part of his unusual popularity. >> if you were in a meeting with

mitch mcconnell and they said senator, if donald trump is at the top of the ticket, we'll lose the senate majority and senator mcconnell said, fred, what should we do? what would you advise him? >> i would say we need to change the dynamic and get on board. i agree with harold. nobody's overly elated in america about donald trump or hillary clinton. their negatives are too high. the democrats have done a far better job of coalescing behind her and moving forward. i think it's about time for the republicans to do the same. i'll probably get a thousands phone calls for that when the show's over. that would be my advice.

>> i've said i think the chairwoman makes things m s mes than it should have been. she had every right to profess her support. i think bernie sanders deserve some credence to what he was saying. i don't have any issues with what mrs. clinton is saying. >> i'll ask you to do something that will come natural to you. pretrend like your bernie sanders. what would you tell sanders to do. >> to begin to draft the speech and talk about the importance and how you raise these issues and how you believe the democrat parties at the center for resolving issue. mrs. clinton won fairly in this

race. we head to this convention unified. what we need to do is not only enter the convention unified but leave it equally, if not stronger. >> fred davis, great man. harold ford, an adequate man. you're both fantastic. love having you on the show. come back soon. we'll have more from our new bloomberg politics. if you're watching us in washington, d.c., you can also listen to us on the radio radio at bloomberg 99.1 fm. we'll be right back. vo: across america,

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if your pill isn't giving you the control you need ask your doctor about non-sulin victoza®. it's covered by most health plans. joining us to talk more about our national poll, our colleague don mccormick who has dug through the numbers. you can read his stories on bloomberg politics right now. he's in our chicago bureau. talk about this issue of brand that we asked fred davis about how the two parties brands are doing. >> i think this poll offers concrete evidence that donald trump is not doing anything positive for the republican

brand now. as you've discussed only a third of americans view the republican brand in a favorable way. that's the lowest level we recorded in a bloomberg poll since the poll's inception in 2009. >> how's the democrat brand doing? >> much better. not great but half the americans view the democratic party in a favorable light. that sets up the contours for this race at the presidential level and also could affect races, congressional races and down ballot races for governorships, et cetera. >> i ask you to go beyond the confines of the poll in one respect. i'm struck by the wrong number which is high. 67%. the wrong track has been over 50% for a long time. it didn't stop barack obama for getting reelected in 2012.

how do we reconcile those realities in the electorate? >> it really is a stark contrast. it would be an environment that donald trump could take advantage of if things were going better for his campaign right now. so many americans think the country is headed this the wrong direction. that number is at the highest level that we have recorded in the bloomberg poll going back to 2010, 2009. it's an atmosphere where challenger to the incumbent party would have an advantage. at the same time, we asked people about their economic and personal situation in life. for the first time since we started asking the question in 2010, a majority of americans say they are better off. they feel better off right now than they did at the peak of the recession in early 2009. so, people personally are feeling better about their situation, and, yet, there's a widely held belief that the

country is heading in the wrong direction. >> part of this poll was done before the orlando massacre. there's some after. the data will be a little mixed. talk about the issues were the top issues for voters in our survey. >> jobs in the economy is almost always the top issue that people list when we give them a choice in term offense what issue they think is most important in the election. that was about a fifth of the electorate said jobs was at the top. when you combine terrorism and isis, the number approaches and surpasses jobs just slightly. we'll see how this plays out. people are at a heightened concern. >> john we talked with fred

davis and harold ford about the vice presidential element of this poll. if i look at those number, the running mates for trump, potential running mates for clinton, 15% of democrats say they are not sure who hillary clinton's running mate should be is sort of striking. it suggests there's a bit of a thinness on the democrat bench when she starts to think about who she should put on the ticket. talk about that a little bit. >> well, about a third of the people supporting clinton at this point think she should pick elizabeth warren as her running mate. one person we didn't ask about was bernie sanders. while it seems highly unlikely that she will pick sanders as her running mate, if he had him on the list, i'm sure he would have gotten large vote as well. we tried to put people on the list who we thought was the most likely possibilities.

>> 50% say they are bothered by her wall street speeches. 45%, the e-mail server. you have to assume those are republicans. seems to me those numbers could be a lot higher. i think it's good news for her. what do you think? >> yeah. i'm be inclined to agree. on the e-mail issue, there's a certain amount of fatigue. it's been talked about so much and for so long that unless a major development breaks in the story, i think a lot of americans are saying it's been discussed. like you say, republicans view it as a huge issue. some independents will.

>> kacie, welcome. good to see you. >> thank you. >> everything about this show and not just this show has been all bad for donald trump and good for hillary clinton. how are people feeling around her? >> i think they're feeling pretty good. i think they're seeing over the last couple of weeks, bourn out what they were saying when the tide was shifting in donald trump's favor. you're seeing that start to happen. i think privately, clinton may feel the events of the last week have served to mitigate some of her weaknesses.

her caution has been portrayed in political calculation. i think with the way things have turned out in orlando that her caution is turning into a strength. >> quickly, talk about secretary clinton in the usa today interview and weigh in on this issue of debbie wasserman schultz. is she being cautious or is it a possibility of removing her? >> i get the sense they don't want to do anything wrong now. i think they're trying to be very careful around that. i will say i was surprised by how far she went in saying she wants a new party. she used the word new to say how she wants democrats to move forward. that suggests to me they could

be serious about this. they do want bernie sanders to pull back. i don't think it's out of realm of possibility that she becomes a casualty of that. >> thank you, both. up next, we'll talk about donald trump's war against the media and his recent blacklisting of the washington post. machine why do so many businesses rely on the us postal service? because when they ship withs, their businessbecomes . that's why we make more e-commerce deliveries to homes than anyone else in the country. here, ere, everywhere. united states postal service priority: u ♪ exrience the thrill of the lexus gs f sport. because the ultimate expression of power,

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. our next guest wrote his latest column about donald trump and hoping to get credentials to donald trump events. after donald trump banned him from his rallies, the stories were publiced on trump's role as the media punisher in chief.

there he is. hello. >> hello. >> thanks for coming on the show. tell us about these encounter. these telephonic encounters. >> i've been covering politics, not as long as you gentlemen, but quite a long time. i've never had a situation like there where you say what's the strategy. let me talk to your pollster. no, mr. trump will call you momentarily and mr. trump is on the phone. >> the washington post is now absolutely part of this story. does he view as i can kick anybody out. these are private events? >> i think it's in between. he's unapologetic and he said

the new york times might be next on his list. it plays to a crowd. i think he thinks it. i don't think this is strategy. if they're not being fair, i'll take a bad story, but if i think it's unfair or inaccurate then i have the right to cut them off as a candidate. >> he's just working the rest. she's trying to intimidate people. isn't this an attempt to try to intimidate reporters from writing negative stories? >> all of my programming as a reporter and experience as a reporter, would say yes. again, with donald trump, i never know because he definitely seems to be this emotion involved and he seems to get angry and it seems genuine but maybe he's also a showman. i don't know. >> he is saying, it's hard.

i think he's saying i'll be different when i'm president. public versus private. he said these are events held on private property. do you have any sense that we should believe pim and he would be a different president if president of the united states and not try to intimidate the press. >> you have a story where republicans in the senate said he would change his behavior when he was the presumed nominee, he didn't. they were disappointed. he meant to say i'm representing

the nation, not myself. we should have solidarity. we can't cut off covering one of the presumed nominee. if a third party candidate shows up, you have to cover him. if our credentials are taken away, so be it. we stand by the post and i support the post personally in this. >> do you subscribe? >> i do subscribe. >> do you think trump has any sense that he might be over a line. >> i think it's chilling. i told him that. that's why i end the column,

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you love polls. we got polls. we have them on our website. "with all due respect" is back tomorrow. see you then. >> coming up, hardball with chris matthews. trump is slump. let's play hardball. good evening. i'm chris matthews in washington. it's been a rough month for donald trump. last week trump was entangled in a fight with federal judge. he said the judge's mexican heritage compromise trump for a