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that's why we make more e-commerce deliveries to homes than anyone else in the country. here, there, everywhere. united states postal service priority: you good to be with you. i'm frances rivera at msnbc headquarters in new york. we begin in orlando where new documents provided to nbc news show gunman omar mateen talked about bringing a gun to a florida corrections training plm in 2007. nbc's sarah dallof is in orlando just outside the pulse nightclub. what more do we know about the new developments in the investigation and what more are police saying? >> reporter: good morning, frances. these documents are shedding light on the motives and the movements of the gunman leading up to the shooting, but i want to get the latest here from the scene from orlando police chief

john mina who is kind enough to join us. it's hard to believe, chief, we are almost a week out from this horrific shooting. how are your officers doing? >> doing good, the officers initially inlved in the incident have all received counseling and stress management debriefing. the officers out here on the scene, they're tired but in good spirits, working hard. you can see there's a lot going on out here in support of the fbi investigation. >> we've seen not only a turnout in the city but across the nation and the world in support of this community. what has that meant to the men and women on your force? >> it has meant the world. we received e-mails and text messages an phone calls from all over the world. more than that we've received hugs from our own community, fbi director james comey came down yesterday and spoke to the officers and they really enjoyed that, were very grateful to hear his message. >> we're hearing these tales of

heroism by these officers, reuniting with the survivors they helped pull from that horror. how proud are you of your force? >> i'm extremely proud, not only the men and women of the orlando police department but all the assisting agencies that have come to assist. there are many, many unsung heroes, many acts of heroism and courage. these officers, they risked their lives to save many, many lives that night. >> i know this is a multiagency investigation. what can you tell us about where the investigation is right now? >> i can tell you the fbi is still processing the scene, working very hard. like they said all the time, they go where the evidence leads them. but that's more their focus right now, we're more in a support role for the entire scene and giving them anything they need. >> any other potential suspects or people involved that you might be looking at at this point? >> you have to get with the fbi on that.

it's their investigation. we're here in a support role. >> what do you guys need right now from the community? >> just the continued support. believe me, we've been overwhelmed with food, water donations, hugs have been great and just the continued support from the community is all we need. i think they know -- this community loves our police department and the officers know it by now. hats off to the community for their show of support. >> when this was all unfolding, i know this was a huge strain on your resources, so many people dedicated. so much so that you asked people to hold off on memorials or large gatherings. where do things stand right now as far as resources for the city? >> we have resource wes need. even if we're falling short, we have surrounding issues that will come and assist us from state and local agencies. we're good and anyone wanting to have vigils or anything like that, we can handle it and we

have the resources to do that. >> thank you very much, chief mina. we appreciate your time. frances, as he mentioned, a huge outpouring of support we've seen as this investigation moves forward, a multi-agency investigation involving, of course, the federal, local and state officials at this level. let's talk a little bit more about those documents provided to nbc that show that omar mateen asked a colleague if he were to bring a gun to that corrections officer class, would the colleague tell anyone in the class. it was that statement, plus the fact that he fell asleep during class and at the gun range that led to the recommendation he be dismiss friday the program. his wife continues to be treated as a witness. a source tells us she has handed over an ipad, cell phones and laptops, frances, to authorities. >> all right. sarah dallof in orlando, florida. we will learn and talk more about mateen's wife a little later on in this segment.

moving on to politics, exactly one month away from the start of the republican convention in cleveland, and a new report in "the washington post" suggests dozens of gop delegates are exploring new ways to stop presumptive nominee donald trump. this centers on changing party rules and allowing delegates to vote for whomever they want at the convention regardless of the state caucus or primary winner. their efforts come at a time of growing tensions between trump and the party, but the presumptive nominee sees it differently. here is what he told supporters at a rally outside houston last night. >> the party -- the party is actually liking me. i'm an outsider. i'm an outsider and historically they don't love the outsiders. but they're starting to like me. maybe there will be a few -- you don't hear about the tremendous numbers of people -- i'm even talking about the politicians -- that are totally supportive. if one person raises a little question, it's like, oh, did you

hear? let me tell you folks, we have tremendous support. >> two rallys today, one in las vegas and the other in phoenix. hillary clinton and bernie sanders have no events today. meanwhile elizabeth warren is once again fueling talk about whether she'll be picked as clinton's vice president. the massachusetts senator who just last week endorsed clinton stopped by the presumptive nominee's headquarters in new york yesterday and spoke with staffers. let's start with the republicans, nbc's hallie jackson with more on mr. trump's response to the orlando shooting. she is in las vegas where he's rallying today. he didn't hold back, even using the words "beautiful thing" when referencing a hypothetical thing in the shooting. what more did he say about that? >> reporter: that hypothetical scenario, frances, would have been if more people had been armed during that nightclub shooting that happened almost a week ago, this is something we've heard trump talk about before with other incidents. when we talked about it in texas, you heard the crowd get

really fired up. i want you to take a look. donald trump talking tough in texas. >> if we had people with the bullets going in the opposite direction, right smack between the eyes of this maniac -- >> reporter: describing what could have happened if more people had been armed during the orlando shooting. >> and this son of a [ bleep ] comes out and starts shooting and one of the people in that room happened to it and goes boom, boom, you know what? that would have been a beautiful, beautiful sight folks. >> outside houston, trump touting his texas-sized crowds. long lines even after his rally started in this deep red state, spending the time here to get donors to spend money, attending multiple fund-raisers. this morning, sources familiar with these events revealed trump brought in about $8 million as his team tries to catch up with hillary clinton in more ways than one.

a trump slump showing up in recent polls. >> crooked hillary as we call her. >> reporter: the candidate seems unfazed, says i vice president even started my campaign yet though he's been the presumptive nominee since may 4th. delegates will try for a convention queue in cleveland. while house speaker paul ryan has endorsed trump, he's telling his fellow republican lawmakers they don't necessarily have to. >> the last thing i would do is tell anybody to do something that's contrary to their conscience. of course i wouldn't do that. >> trump's response, ryan's got to do what he has to do and clearly so does trump. >> reporter: nbc news now confirming former president george w. bush is reemerging on the political scene, frances, not to campaign for the top of the ticket, but to help out vulnerable senators in his party, people like rob portman

in ohio, folks whose campaigns may have become more challenging with donald trump as the presumptive nominee. >> concerned about the down ballot results. hallie jackson reporting in las vegas. turning now to a developing story in pennsylvania where authorities have found 12 girls and put them in protective custody t. man pictured here, lee kaplan, has been charged with sexually abusing one of those girls. nbc's morgan rad foshd is outside the home where the girls were found in pennsylvania. more grant, what more are authorities saying about the investigation? >> reporter: frances, right now we're standing outside what police have effectively described as a house of horrors where they say 12 young girls were living inside secretly with a man who was 51 years old. you saw the photo of lee kaplan who has been charged with three rounds of assault and also unlawful contact and corruption of a minor. this all started when police found an 18-year-old girl inside, and she told police that lee was the father of two of her

children, one of whom she had when she was just 14 years old, another one who is as young as six months old. all this was uncovered only recently. lee kaplan has lived here since 1988. a neighbor living here for six months said something wasn't right, the girls were skittish, when you'd approach the gidoor, the girls would scurry. there were several calls saying there was something unusual about the house. there was never any trash outside, a school bus would never come by. they'd see young girls peeking outside the windows. right now three girls in custody. the parents of the 18-year-old girl who in a curious plat twist that we're now vafting, those parents told police they gifted their daughter to lee kaplan after helping them out of financial ruin before they were at threat of losing their farm. there's a lot of unanswered questions this morning.

this investigation is expected to take several more days. those three adults are now in custody and the 12 children are in protective police custody right now, frances. >> morgan, looking at this property behind you, doesn't seem to be a lot of enclosed areas, as far as fenced-in areas. do we know the level of how police kept these girls in captivity or against their will at all? >> reporter: we don't know yet the motive, how long or by what means he was able to keep them inside, but this is a quiet street. what surprised me most is there is some activity. the houses aren't terribly spread out. you'd think you'd notice something a little unusual here. you can see there are boarded-up windows here and it's hidden behind these overgrown trees. still what's unusual, it's not like this house is entirely secluded. there are neighbors just a few yards away. a lot of questions swirling around what's otherwise a pretty

quiet and idyllic street. >> thank you so much, morgan radford in pennsylvania. thank you for the update. paul ryan telling republicans to stay true to their conscience when it comes to donald trump. what is he getting at with that statement? we'll bring it to you next. with. but i keep it growing by making every dollar count. that's why i have the spark cash card from capital one. with it, i earn unlimited 2% cash back on all of my purchasing. and that unlimited 2% cash back from spark means thousands of dollars each year going back into my business... which adds fuel to my bottom line. what's in your wallet? every ingredient is the main ingredient. the new green goddess cobb with avocado, bacon, freshly made dressing, tomato... and chicken. at panera. food as it should be.

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>> of course i wouldn't do that. believe me, chuck, i get this. this is a very strange situation. this is a very unique nominee, but i feel as a responsibility institutionally as the speaker

of the house that i should not be leading some chasm in the middle of the party. you know what that would do? definitely not us out of the white house. >> joining us caitlin burns and jane small. thanks for being with us this saturday morning. jay, as we get started, i want to point to you, with that interview with chuck todd from "meet the press," there's no unendorsement from paul ryan. what's his calculation with the words he used, using your conscience? >> he's stuck tweechb a rock and a hard place. he's chairing the convention so he has to support the nominee that they chose. he wants to give people the freedom to vote against donald trump, that they're nsporting hm because all the statements he's making are statements republicans have to distance themselves from.

in swing districts won by barack obama in the last two elections, so there is a lot of worry about the down ballot here. >> certainly that's the case, and we're seeing that with the emergence of george bush. caitlin, when you talk about having to look and focus on paul ryan, responding to numerous things that trump has said, in response to trum telling republican leaders to be quiet and he could do it on his own. factor in the rift on going with the rnc, unfavorables here that seem to be going up and up and up, is there a case where he's saying, you know what? i've come this far without the party, i can continue. >> that's certainly the case trump has been trying to make. he said there were 16 or 17 candidates in this race and i emerged as the choice of the voters. originally when he received the number of delegates necessary to clinch the nomination, lots started to rally around him saying this is the will of the

voters. they showed trump in a competitive race with hillary clinton. but that course has really changed over the past few weeks with obviously the controversial statements that trump has made on a variety of issues and we've also seen in polls this week, a wider gap, less competitive race as it stands now and republicans are certainly starting to get worried. the other thing that trump has to, another challenge for trump, he doesn't have a campaign infrastructure and has to rely on the rnc for some of that, and the rnc and republicans in various states are hoping trump will do a better job fund-raising. that's why you see him out in these states like texas and arizona trying to raise money. he would like to go it at loan. there are lots of things he has to do for the party and that the party needs him to do. >> meanwhile, you have hillary clinton with major ad buys showing, when it comes to apgss on the ground and finances,

she's way ahead. jay, back to what you were talking about, down ballot reporting, you have the emergence of bush 43 who pretty much staying out of politics and saying i want to help senator mccain in their re-election because of the concern for trump's down ballot effect. >> it's striking that president bush has said he's not going to attend to convention and not a supporter of donald trump. the situation is pretty dire in the senate. you have a majority of four seats right now and there's eight, frankly, seats in play for republicans. if they lose half of those seats, two which are already trending democratic, then they really lose the majority of the senate. you see president bush and you'll see people like mitt romney and others rally to those senators. people who are not supporters of donald trump really trying to protect and fund the protection of the senate majority. >> even made more complicated,

if we're going to consider elizabeth warren as far as a shared ticket, what that will do with the senate as well. caitlyn, back to you, with "the washington post" reporting new efforts by delegates to stop trump by changing the party rules. rnc chairman shawn spicer said all of the discussions about the rnc rules committee acting to undermine the presumptive nominee is silly. there is no organized effort, strategy or leader of the so-called movement. it is mog more than a media creation and a series of tweets. caitlin, is that the case, media creation and tweets? >> no. there are lots of republicans and particularly those who are delegates that "the washington post" reported saying that they want to figure out ways that they could voice their own conscience, right, voice their own concerns with donald trump being the nominee. that would have to be oh over thing has to be approved by the majority on the rules committee.

this is going to be a very uphill battle really, and an unlikely won in terms of the outcome that they would like to achieve i think. you do have the rnc officially against those efforts. rnc chairman reince priebus was with donald trump for the fund-raiser in texas this week. you do sense among republicans and especially those who will be voting for him on the convention floor a concern about his candidacy. we've seen that iterated in various ways this week. if the polls change over the course of the next few weeks, that sentiment could also change. >> jay, we're talking about concern about this candidacy. looking at the clock, we're all aware a month from today is the first day of the republican convention in cleveland. what needs to happen immediately in the short term? >> it would be, as paul ryan points out, crazy to go against

your party's nominee. if, let's say, you have donald trump as the nominee for the next month, the first day of balloting you take it away from him and give it to somebody else, they would cause a huge schism in the country which would take a another month or two if not long tore heeer to h. you're guaranteeing hillary clinton will win the election. like i or not, the best person to take on hillary clinton at this point is donald trump. does he have a lot of work to do? clearly a lot of republicans are uncomfortable with him and they want to see him improve his game in order to take that on. >> if that happens within the next four weeks, thank you, caitlin u' burns and jay newton small, appreciate you being with us. back to the terror in orlando. new questions about mateen's wife noor salman and her connection to the shooting at the pulse nightclub. joins us is associated press

reporter gar rants burr who wrote a piece on mateen's wife. what more are you learning about her? >> one of the question questions that fbi investigators are trying to answer is what was the relationship like between noor salman and her husband omar mateen. we know they were married in 2011 and living in ft. pierce, florida. investigators are trying to peace together how much she knew about the attack before it happened and crucially when she knew any of that information. so some of those details have been rolling out over the last few days. >> if i can just add that nbc news has not verified as far as what she knew, how much she knew about the attack before it happened. but as we continue on -- and there are those reports we've heard that during the standoff, during those three hours inside the pulse nightclub that mateen was texting with her, was asking

her if she's heard anything, seen anything posted on social media and the press about the initial gunfire. what more do you know about that? >> we know investigators or those familiar with the investigation have told a.p. she was texting him that night, that she texted him she loved him and asked where he was. again, we don't know when those text messages were exchanged. >> garance, you also mentioned the kind of relationship, giving us a better idea of what that was like, as far as restrictions. talk late bit about those restrictions and how he really was in some sense very controlling of her in the relationship. >> neighbors in the small california town where salman grew up told us her family was concerned that after she moved to florida, her husband didn't want her to travel back to see her relatives at home.

apparently he was restrictive with the money and didn't even want her to travel home when her father was sick in a nearby hospital. she managed to piece together the money somehow and was able to travel home and see her father before he passed. but that is what neighbors told us, the family had real concerns about his control of her. >> how about accusations that he was abusive and beat her? >> we have not been able to ascertain whether that was the case. there's a lot of open questions about their relationship for sure. >> something that you're looking into as well as all of us here as we try to peacing the and find out more, grarance burke, thanks. the actions disney is taking after this week's deadly alligator attack and questions about whether it's an admission of guilt by the park.

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careful around water bodies. millions of people enjoy florida safely and florida is still very safe. you have to be aware and be careful. >> that was a member of florida's fish and wildlife conservation commission. meanwhile today disney world is adding new warning signs as workers begin fencing off the waterfront near where a 2-year-old boy was grabbed and drown by an alligator tuesday. the disney statement says we are installing signage and temporary barriers at resort beach locations and working on permanent long-term solutions at our beaches. we continue to eval let processes and procedures for our entire property and as part of this we are reenforcing training with our cast, reporting sightings and interactions with wildlife and expanding our communication to guests on this process. i want to bring in matt morgan, he's litigate d against florida theme parks. i want to point out you are no longer representing the family or involved in litigation with

the park now. matt, let's start with this. the fact that disney is making these changes with the signage and the fencing, is that an indication at all that they feel they're at fault or could be liable for what happened? >> i think that's an indication, no question ab it. they're taking safety measures now which probably should have been taken before the tragedy occurred. that's indication that something could have been done to prevent this. unfortunately in florida, if this family does intend on presenting a claim, there's a rule called the subsequent' medial measure rule which could prevent them from them using this as evidence of negligence in any on going proceedings. it's certainly an indication that something more could have been zblon break that down a little more. you're saying they can take this scenario where disney is going back and instead of having no swimming signs, they're posting pictures with an alligator and snakes. you're saying if there is a claim by the family, that it

wouldn't be strong enough for them? >> oh, no. i think there's certainly a very strong claim. i strongly believe that the family would prevail in their claim. ultimately disney had a duty to warn this family of any dangers that they knew or should have known about. if somebody is zwrird or killed as a result of their failure to warn or take adequate safety measures, then i believe the plaintiff would be entitled to recover for any harms or losses that they sustained as a result of that failure. i think the family certainly does have a very strong legal claim in this particular instance. >> this is the question that many have. it's no secret, florida is gator country. we're talking about an estimated 1.3 million as far as the population of alligators here. you have state parks that have warnings, very visible warnings about alligators there. an knowing there have been families before who have brought up this concern according to these families saying they brought it up to disney and the property that there were alligators there, why wouldn't

disney two this earlier? >> that's the big question everybody has on their mind. that's an aggravating factor that could play a critical part of the on going litigation that could potentially -- should the family intend on bringing a claim. ultimately if they are on notice that there are alligators in a close proximity to their guest and they have a white sandy beach with beach chairs and umbrellas and no fence and no warning, that's something that will be taken into consideration, especially because here we have a family from nebraska that never in their wild eftd nightmare could ever imagine that there was an alligator nearby which was large enough to take their son from them in an instant. there's nothing this family could have done to prevent this tragedy because that choice was taken from them when they weren't warned and when no protective fence was put up. >> how much involvement or participation do you think we'll see from other families? i can tell you from other reports, from feeds on social media, facebook, and you see

other families who posted photos of alligators there and other families saying this is what it looked like when you're wading and this is a possible gator here at this point, how would that come into play? >> i think it's so upsetting for americans across the country that watched this story develop, especially those who have taken their families to this same exact location at disney. it's so shocking to the conscience to them to think they were put in the same danger and it could have been them just as easily as it was this family in nebraska. anybody with children -- i have a 2-year-old myself, and this story to me personally has had a profound impact on me. i think families across america are impacted by it. but all these instances that these people would likely be witnesses in this particular case, all these instances where they've documented with video footage and things of that nature, stories of things they've seen, people feeding the alligators, all that will really come into play if this family

does intend to present a legal claim. >> on both sides of this very emotional story, when this story broke, you had a lot of parents saying where are the parents in all this? the parent shaming, the parent judging. but for those who question and say where were the parents around? i'm not saying that. let me be clear, i'm not saying. i'm a mother of a 3 and 5-year-old, but there are those who believe this is gator country, why are you even there in the water. what is your response to that? >> well, i think that is a really, really cruel statement for anybody to make. this is a family that is dealing with a tragedy that no one in their wildest nightmare, it's an inconceivable tragedy, and the father did everything he possibly could have. he leaped into the water into the gator pit and tried to save his son. it's easy to pass judgment until it's you. it's easy to pass judgment until you're sitting in that circumstance and it all happens in an instant.

in this particular instant, the family had no reason to believe that there was any danger present. this is a family from nebraska. keep in mind, if this family would have been warned that there were alligators this the seven seas lagoon. this is a man made lagoon. this is on disney property. the family has every expectation that disney has done everything in their power to protect them and they just could not foresee this type of danger. and if they could, if there was a warning sign that said there's alligators in close proximity, there's no way this family would have stayed on that white sandy beach with umbrellas and beach chairs. there's just no way. >> matt, we're going to have to leave it at that. matt morgan, appreciate it. >> thank you for having me. hillary clinton's pick for vice president, who will it be? we'll talk about the latest name being mentioned. being mentioned. that's next. from my chase ink d

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senior political correspondent lags of senator elizabeth warren topping clinton's vp pick are getting more intense after warren stopped by the clinton headquarters in new york ye yesterday. nbc's kasie hunt is following the clinton camp. we're getting a new statement from the dnc, they're talking about trump's paid field staffing and how many they say he has. >> they're reacting to a report from the associated press that says trump only has 30 paid staffers in swing states to organize for him ahead of the general election. we should say nbc news has not looked specifically at these reports. don't have confirmation of that yet. they do say it's not surprising donald trump only has an estimated 30 people because it must be tough to find people to support candidate who bilked students out of tens of thousands at trump university.

they go on to talk about things they want voters to know about donald trump. i think what's important here, frances, is this emerging disparity between the trump campaign and the clinton campaign when it comes to organizing. the trump campaign is relying on the republican national committee to do a lot of work for them. there's a lot of risk there. things aren't all rosie between the trump campaign and the party itself. secondly, the rnc was in bad shape not too long ago and reince priebus has done what many republicans believe is a remarkable job of getting the committee back on its feet. it's still to a certain extent behind the democrats in a lot of these basic nuts and bolts of politics. president obama when he ran those two campaigns in 2008 and 2012, really showed you can bring data and organizing to a new level. democrats have been working on that basically since the president won his re-election in

2012. they've been focused in large part in making sure they're ready to organize for this race coming up. now, of course, donald trump has dismissed data essentially and says this doesn't matter. he says i can get all the earned media i need. that's his focus. i think there are a lot of republicans who disagree with that. ted cruz's campaign manager was out saying it's worth anywhere from 2.5 points on a bad day to five points on a good day. there's a lot of risk for down ballot candidates as well. people like rob portman in ohio will rely on whatever organization the presidential candidate has. >> before you go, any reaction from the clinton camp on elizabeth warren's visit to campaign headquarters in new york? >> the clinton campaign is keeping it very quiet, very tight-lipped, particularly about elizabeth warren. we know she's at least in the realm of consideration for the

vp slot. of course, she visited brooklyn campaign headquarters yesterday which only stoked the fire. take a look. >> this is fabulous! i wanted to be here to say thank you, but i also wanted to be here to say i'm with you all the way, we've got to get this down! [ cheers and applause ] >> a little glimpse there of elizabeth warren's campaign style, how she might perform in a vice presidential role. of course, she gave a speech in washington a few days ago that really outlined or underscored, i should say, how she would approach fighting donald trump. that's something they're pretty excited about. >> kasie hunt for us in washington, d.c., thank you so much. i want to take you back to orlando, the terror there. president obama said this week it appears that orlando gunman omar mateen absorbed messages from isis, this after officials say mateen pledged allegiance to the terror group when he called 911 early sunday morning. investigators are looking into what may have radicalized

mateen. joining us to discuss the possible involvement is msnbc national security analyst and executive editor of defense one, kevin baron. good to have you, as always oochls. we talk about this and reports that mateen had claimed hezbollah or links to al qaeda and even isis. how will aukt thorts be able to determine the level of influence of isis in this attack? >> well, this comes at an interesting time where the pentagon and the state department are trying much harder to get to the heart of what makes somebody become radicalized and how much propaganda matters. they've reupped the campaign against counter propaganda with michael lumpkin, the policy chief in charge of special operations, a navy s.e.a.l. they sent him to the state department to restart and breathe new life into the program that looks into all of this. the pentagon is even looking into developing ai, artificial intelligen

intelligence, that can scan your web activity to find out what matters. there's been a lot of development over the years and a lot of focus on exactly how much this matters to radicalizing somebody. there's a difference between looking at a website and taking it as far as the shooter did to a mass killing in orlando here. but this all comes at a time where the greater u.s. government, not just the military, has started to shift the focus on the homeland and on these types of possible tair richl or terrorist group inspired individuals. >> how can we go and counter that, especially with the spread that we're talking about from defense one in the piece that says more individuals are absorbing isis propaganda? how do you combat that, knowing by the comfort of these people's homes, behind their computer, just a search engine to look at it and knowing that may be all it takes for them to not only be radicalized, but to go and actually carry out something like this? >> there's two things to look

at. one is the technology. one i think is more the reality and the policy at dhs. technology-wise we've had stories saying it's a bit of a myth to think there was one shooter that happened, that you can go back and time and find out this nice easy package trail of e-mails or web traffic or social media postings that will just say, a-ha, it's clear this person was -- or if you're trying to predict the future, this person will be a radicalized terrorist. when you look at official policy, what law enforcement and dhs is saying, they're saying if you see something, say something. they're asking neighbors to -- >> in this case they did. in this case we saw it time and time again, even the most recent reports saying he was at a corrections facility, was studying for that and was even asking a classmate if he could bring a gun and that was flagged. that's what we're seeing, tho t missed alarms and flags.

>> they weren't missed, they were made known but weren't all pieced together. even those type of red flags show the difficulty of when you're dealing with a population of 350 million people in the united states and all the billions of bits of data coming out online, again, it's the myth versus the reality. i think it was director comey who said they're looking for a needle in the haystack of the entire country. that's the difficulty. i think people have a greater sense and understanding of just how hard it is to find these people. that should prepare the public to know this is going to keep happening, that should prepare the policymakers to understand and create maybe a more realistic range of what where we're living, it's going to keep happening in this way. >> the difficult part and the frightening part as well. the five numbers having the biggest impact on donald trump's campaign.♪ you see, we've got te to turn back time ♪ ♪ so let's restart the show that started at nine ♪

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142 days before the general election and the real clear politics average of poll shows hillary clinton with a six point lead over donald trump. but a closer look at a couple of polls show the trouble trump is facing. that's where we begin in this week's fiv political numbers to watch. joining me is steven shepard from politico. good to have you with me to break down these numbers. the first we will start with is 33%, a number that's a problem for trump. >> right. that is the number of people who are going to vote -- say they are going to vote for donald trump in a bloomberg politics survey out this week who say they are very enthusiastic that trump is the republican nominee. 43% of clinton voters say they are very enthusiastic clinton is the nominee. this is a big shift from where we usually see the race historically. the enthusiasm gap in the past, six years or so, has always favored republicans, even in

2012, republican voters are more enthusiastic than democratic voters. right now that's not true. democrats are more enthusiastic about hillary clinton and more acutely republicans are really depressed about donald trump as the nominee despite the fervent supporters he does have, they represent a very small percentage right now. republicans on the whole are not excited about donald trump. >> we are talking ten points with that difference. next number is 55%, that number to watch. why does it mean trump will have trouble convincing skeptics to vote for him? >> that's a majority of likely voters who say they will never vote for trump to be president. that's problematic if 55% of the electorate won't vote for you. donald trump needs to spend the next five months convincing people who right now say they won't vote for him to vote for him. that's not a problem hillary clinton has. 43% of likely voters say they would never vote for hillary clinton. so this is an acute problem for trump but right now, he said last night he really hasn't begun his campaign.

well, that's a problem for him, because these voters are starting to get locked in and he's starting to get left behind. >> we are seeing the advantage for hillary clinton. that's the case with this next number, with white women, a key constituent for any candidate. what's the number to watch there? >> donald trump at only 35% among white women in the cbs news survey out this week, trailing hillary clinton 42 to 35. despite what we talk about the gender gap, white women are a traditionally republican constituency. mitt romney won them by 14 points, even though he ended up losing by four points nationally. you can't as a republican win without winning white women. right now donald trump is not winning white women. he needs to fix that if he's going to have any chance. >> one way we are seeing hillary ahead also is when it comes to ad spending. we have some of these new ones coming up. how much is she spending with the new ads? where will we see them? >> according to our count, it's just a shade under $20 million. nbc news has it just a shade over $20 million. we are talking solid eight figures here for hillary clinton's ad buy between now and late july. donald trump, meantime, this is

concentrated in three swing states, ohio, florida, north carolina, and north carolina's a state mitt romney won. >> very quickly, we are running out of time, when it comes to california, unfinished business with that number? >> yeah, hillary clinton's lead of about ten points now, it was 12 points when we talked last week. bernie sanders is cutting into that a little bit but this will still be a pretty solid win for hillary clinton. that should be sort of the end of the democratic nominating process and moving into the general election. >> the five numbers that matter. thank you. that will do it for me. i'll see you back here at 2:00 p.m. eastern time. up next, "a.m. joy." joy reid speaks with charlie christ about marco rubio's possible senate re-election bid. ♪ using 60,000 points from my chase ink card i bought all the framework... wire...

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we cannot go on with business as usual in this body. >> this individual could have been stopped. >> virtually every member of this body has probably stated