devil. he sounded -- he went into such depth that it almost sounded like he understood why people are doubting this and he sounded a little bit defensive. >> i thought the same thing, as he kind of knows that maybe it ain't working out so well. jim miklaszewski, great to talk with you. we will be back tomorrow with more "mtp daily." "with all due respect" starts eight seconds late. i'm john heilemann. >> i'm mark halperin. with all due respect for joe biden's gift for his boss, it's only the second best presidential birthday gift ever in american history. ♪ happy birthday to you

tonight on a very special all-new self-help episode of "with all due respect," a candidate's diy. first an everyman's guide to today's polls. a new national survey once again shows hillary clinton leading donald trump by double digits, this one is from marist that shows her leading 15 points, 48% to 33%. >> wow! >> this on the heels of last night's fox news survey that shows her with a six-point swing in her advantage since june, up in that poll by ten points, 49% to 39%. in the fox poll she no longer trails trump on key traits such as who is considered more honest and trustworthy. the trend towards clinton is happening not just nationally but in four new key state polls out today, each one in a state trump has mentioned in the past week as key to his victory vision. >> we have a lot of states in play right now. i think we're going to do great in michigan. we're going to do great in

pennsylvania. in new hampshire, i'm leading by a lot. i'm doing great. and i'm going to win in florida. >> all right. so how's trump actually doing in those states? suffolk has clinton up by six points in florida, florida poll. wbor has her up 17 in new hampshire. a poll by franklin & marshall says their lead is 11 points in pennsylvania. in michigan, clintson is beatin trump 41% to 31%. michigan is not a must-win state for trump but if true, this could foreshadow real problems for trump in the midwest, the rust belt and other states with large suburban populations. only 65% of so-called strong republicans in michigan are now supporting their party's nominee. that problem is most prominent in the suburbs around detroit. in the rim counties, libertarian candidate gary johnson is pulling 16% of all republican votes, more than double what he's getting state-wide. it comes almost entirely from trump defections that is driven

largely by white republican men. a similar thing happening in western michigan as well. so mark, we always like to say that polls are only snapshots and these are really bad polls for donald trump. my question is just how bad are they? >> polls are just a snapshot. >> i just said that. >> this is a snapshot of a severed arm. but the arm is off. so they have to put the arm back on. i mean, the only good news for trump in these is that it's a wake-up call for him to change his ways. he loves polls, talks about polls all the time. we all know that. he can't be in denial now. he can denounce one or two as being off but this is a body of polling data that is derivative of, the direct result of his poor performance and the successful democratic convention. he has august to fix it. >> look, i think there's a big lesson here. you are always getting a bump coming out of your convention if it's well-staged and the democratic convention was.

in combination as you suggested, bad if you are on the opposite side to crater in light of historically horrible way at exactly the same time your opponent is rising. i think the problem for trump here is that these numbers can now lock in for a long time. he might not be able to move these numbers in an appreciable way until the first debate, a month and a half away. these are bad. they are not just bad, the national number's big and shows trump's floor is lower than we thought, but the state polls, in particular the attributes where trump had a lead on clinton, and she's closed the gap or overtaken him, i would be freaking out if i was in the trump campaign right now. >> they have money now. best news of the week for him raising money. do you really want to spend money on august advertising to try to fix your poll numbers in august? probably not. >> when everyone is watching the olympics. >> probably not. this is scared republicans that's given the never trumpers

a big i told you so moment to say this guy is bad news for the entire party. you can't assume he will get polling numbers that are good any time soon. j >> right. it's freaking everybody out at a moment when they are already freaked out. >> last 24 hours have brought new reports of republican discord because of mr. trump including two congressmen who are just the latest to distance themselves from the party standard bearer. illinois congressman adam kidsinger said after the events of last week he doesn't think he can support trump in november. out in colorado, republican congressman mike kaufmann is running a tv ad vowing that if he wins re-election he will stand up to trump if trump is president. still, trump's team is fighting back. they were out in force today. campaign chairman paul manafort was on cbs this morning and tried for the second day in a row to move his campaign or at least the perception of the campaign back on track. >> we're comfortable with where we are organizationally. what we are not comfortable with is the narrative the media seems

to be taking which is building a story line that the democrats are controlling the race. the drop in poll numbers were expected. in two weeks we think that will even out if we are on message. he will support paul ryan. he said he will work with paul ryan. there's no issue about that. he didn't take a position in the primary. he's not taking a position in many primaries. that's not the news. the news is the two of them working together to elect republican congress and republican president and i think you will see that. >> also coming to trump's defense in a way, paul ryan. in a radio interview with wtaq in green bay, despite trump's refusal to so far endorse him, ryan stood by the nominee. >> the only endorsements that i want are those of my own employers here in the first congressional district and that's really what my focus is. when i did support donald i said at that time and ever since then if i see a situation where our

conservative principles are being distorted, i'm going to stand up for those conservative principles. none of these things are ever blank checks. that goes with any situation, in any kind of race. >> so that blank check thing a little ominous. ryan mostly supportive. at a campaign stop today in virginia beach, trump's number one defender mike pence, his running mate, who did break with trump yesterday in saying he would endorse ryan, sided with trump suggesting the ryan thing was biased on his friendship. he did not endorse john mccain or kelly ayotte ahead of their primaries, just as trump failed to endorse them. another news cycle has come and gone. where do things stand between trump and the republican party? >> i will say something that maybe controversial in the context of this discussion, because given how horrible many of the last few days for trump are, you could say today was not a terrible day. these polling numbers we just discussed, though, i think are going to hit like a ton of breaks for republicans who are as i said, at the end of our last discussion, we are already freaking out for a lot of

reasons. now they are seeing maybe the signs that the bottom's falling out. i don't think any of them will listen to paul manafort and say we will be back on message soon and this will all turn itself around. i think if you start to see actual data that shows trump is bottoming out and could be in the low 30s, that's a bad day for trump and it's not going to do anything to help him stitch the party back together. >> a lot of republicans i have talked to today look at the sort of fox news mantra and trump mantra saying the polls are all crooked, look at the crowds look at the crowd size, look how bad hillary clinton is. they are donors who are helping trump who are now quietly not helping trump, working on getting some of them on this program. there are politicians who are now strategizing with their staffs to say how do we get untangled from trump. mike kaufmann is not the only one who does this. mike pence is doing work to patch things up. trump is going to show some more discipline, i'm confident of that. we will talk later about how much that means.

right now, nothing matters with the party as much as the polls. the polls are poison. >> the polls are about their self-interests. if i did your thing where i go to a camera, i would say please, republicans, do not talk about rigged polls and crooked polls and how the polls are -- remember 2012. just remember, you all said that stuff then and you were wrong and sddisastrously wrong. democrats are trying to make every effort to weigh republicans down with trump's unpopularity. american bridge is rolling out tv ads targeting republican candidates in pennsylvania, wisconsin, missouri, north carolina, nevada and florida. some of the republicans are almost certain to distance themselves one way or the other from trump in the coming weeks. but there is one incumbent who got off to an early start. back in march, mark kirk of illinois said he would support trump if he became the nominee. by june, kirk had reversed his stance. his campaign has now run tv ads

in illinois quoting that kirk has bucked his party, saying donald trump is not fit to be commander in chief. looking at the kirk example, and looking at everything else we know at this moment, what do you think the risks and rewards are today, as of now, today, for distancing yourself for a republican who wants to try to steer clear of trump? >> big distance between senators and house members. most republican house members are in jerrymanderred districts. too many votes they need will be from conservatives. much harder for a house member to do it unless they are in a swing district. the senators can do it. mark kirk was considered the most, not only the most endangered republican incumbent senator, he's now competitive in part because he has distanced himself from trump. i will just say, we talked about the new hampshire poll earlier. in that poll, trump down double digits. so is kelly ayotte, incumbent republican senator. she cannot survive trump losing by six. >> look, you have, just to unpack the thing you said at the

beginning, the house candidates are all really tied to trump. the national mood moves the house races around. >> their districts are more republican. >> senate races do make their own weather to a greater degree. i think a lot of those states we just mentioned where american bridge is advertising, you will see republicans. they have no choice. the risks are small, the rewards are high. >> unless he comes roaring back. if he's down by seven or more -- >> it will be necessary. it won't be a risk/reward calculus. they will have to. when we come back, what discipli disciplined donald trump would look like. soon, she'll be binge-studying. now she writes mostly in emoji. soon, she'll type the best essays in the entire 8th grade. today, the only spanish words he knows are burrito and enchilada. soon, he'll take notes en espanol. get back to great with the right gear.

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guess what? we're still talking about donald trump. much of the unrest within the republican party stems from the expectation by gop leaders and donors that as donald trump entered the general election, we mature, become a more predictable, scripted and

overall disciplined candidate. that of course has proved to be wishful thinking for the most part although it appears the republican nominee himself now sees the problem that other people see. here's what he said yesterday in an interview with cbs 12 in daytona beach, florida. >> many people in the gop who support your candidacy are advising you to focus your attacks on hillary clinton. they say you are being baited into battles that distract you from the message. >> i think that's probably right. more focus on hillary clinton. she's a disaster. we will focus more on hillary clinton. absolutely. >> what, what? so trump seems to finally get what he's been advised to do. says he's going to adhere to it. if he does, we know he's not going to be the most disciplined candidate of all time but what would a more disciplined trump look like? >> well, in the realm of fantasy, you would have a candidate who talked about the economy, would talk about -- >> i mean real world. let's say there's some improvement. how would he conduct himself?

>> i don't even understand how to answer the question. the hypothetical seems like we have heard this so many times that trump is going to become more disciplined, he's going to stay on message. >> you don't think being down 15 points in a national poll will focus his mind? >> you would think. you would think. you would think it would. what would it look like? it would look like him making his economic arguments, making foreign policy arguments and at least mitigating some of the stuff where he just can't control himself. >> they are never going to stop him from riffing at these rallies or doing rallies. he's doing the speech monday on the economy. they just have to make him go out with an index card and read sound bites on hillary clinton and the economy and hope that's what gets covered. >> he finds it impossible, though, the thing about the khan controversy was that he does not -- he's incapable of not hitting back at anybody who hits at him. he punches down, he punches sideways. i think he could go give speeches with cards, he could do that, but the world will still spin. people will still attack him. he will find it -- i just have

never seen any evidence that he's not -- finds he can resist the urge to attack anybody who attacks him however appropriate or inappropriate those attacks are. >> that will keep happening? >> yes, of course it will keep happening. let's talk about donald trump's wife, melania, who is back in the news. front and center. it all started last weekend, when the "new york post" published nude photographs melania took as a model in 1995 when she says she was living in the u.s. on a foreign visa. she was of course born in slovenia and moved to the u.s. in the mid '90s. there have since been questions about exactly what type of visa she had and whether or not she was permitted to work in america at the time those photos were taken. politico, new york magazine, other news outlets have all written stories about this and whether her past contradicts what donald trump has been preaching about immigration on the campaign trail. so spouses typically not considered fair game. certainly the candidates' nominees insist they are not fair game. in this instance, should the story be an exception to that

rule or not? >> well, she tweeted out a statement earlier today saying that she's been in full compliance with the immigration laws of this country, period. at all times. without answering some of the factual questions that these stories have raised. i think this is a tough call. she did put herself forward at the convention giving a speech, but all spouses do that. and i have not seen scrutiny of this kind of jill biden, obviously bill clinton's kind of an exception, ann romney. you have not seen this level of scrutiny. at the same time, immigration is trump's signature issue. >> yes. >> so i think it's a pretty close call. i think it needs to be done in a careful, thoughtful way. i think the trump campaign, although i understand why they are probably a little annoyed by this, needs to answer the questions in a calm, straightforward way because these are matters of law. >> i know that bill clinton is a special case because the clinton foundation is i believe a legit area of journalistic inquiry.

donald trump has attacked bill clinton not just on the foundation, but over his personal life repeatedly over the course of many months. i don't like the idea that shouses should be fair game in some way. i think this is a legitimate issue for the reasons you said but the reality is it would be insane for the trump campaign to complain that melania trump is being subject to scrutiny on a policy matter when donald trump attacks bill clinton on personal matters in addition to questions of corruption. >> but it would be just great if she's on firm ground she says she is, they should just put out the facts and the press should use the kind of judgment that is normally used in questioning whether writing about spouses. >> i agree. as republicans are trying to sort out their family drama today, hillary clinton was out west in nevada promoting her jobs plan at an electric company in las vegas. before holding a rally at a union hall this afternoon. yesterday and today, she has made an argument about trump's clothing line not being made in america. hillary is doing all kinds of stuff and we have had this crazy

period. how well do you think the campaign has been capitalizing on trump's very very very bad ve stretch? >> they are living by the idea what's yours is mine and they are going after working class white men in particular with the bus trip. mathematically if she can get a higher percentage of working class white men, the election's over. she has been really smart not making a national thing but in battleground states where there are a lot of white working class men, really making a strong economic argument to them. >> they have also i think been smart in that they have, as trump has gotten himself in so much trouble with the khans, i'm not saying they have been restrained, they have obviously been criticized by the left and by democrats all over the place, but they have followed by the wisdom of when someone is digging a ditch, digging themselves in deeper and deeper, let them keep digging. let them go about their business. they have done that pretty well. i agree, this is a good argument for them, this outsourcing argument. very strong. it goes not only to the voters

trump wants to claim but also to an argument that he claims to be one of the strongest economic arguments. >> i can tell you, all the things that need to be done post-august, debate preparation, ad buying strategy, putting stuff in the can, putting opposition research in the can, the trump campaign can say they are a different kind of campaign, they don't need to do that stuff. they are way behind in all those areas. the clinton campaign is miles and miles ahead and are using this time to get more of that done. >> all true. up next, the great kelly o'donnell of nbc news. first, a quick break. isn't it time to let the real you shine through? introducing otezla (apremilast). otezla is not an injection or a cream. it's a pill that treats plaque psoriasis differently. with otezla, 75% clearer skin is achievable after just 4 months, with reduced redness, thickness, and scaliness of plaques. and the otezla prescribing information has no requirement for routine lab monitoring. don't take otezla if you are allergic

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welcome back. joining us now, nbc news correspondent kelly o'donnell. comes to us from the nbc news washington bureau. kelly, so much trump stuff to talk about. i want to talk about mike pence and donald trump. i know you know mike pence well from covering him on capitol hill. tell us your take on how their relationship is functioning these days. >> reporter: well, it seems that donald trump is giving mike pence a little bit of breathing room to represent his own brand, which is traditional republican conduit to the establishment. that sort of filled the picture over the last 24 hours with respect to the ability to independently, mike pence endorsing paul ryan. but today a new wrinkle. in talking with reporters on the trail, not on camera, pence talked about wanting to be supportive of republicans around the country who are in races but declined to endorse john mccain or kelly ayotte in arizona and new hampshire.

tight races. and there is some history of course with john mccain. he met with him personally in phoenix earlier this week and one of mccain's former strategists who was also a big advocate for john kasich during the cycle tried to shame pence, saying it was mccain who came out to campaign for him in 2000, trying to sort of close that loop and say he should have been able to stand up for mccain. now, it might even benefit mccain to not have either trump nor pence endorsing him in his own primary and then his general election fight for going back to the senate. but mike pence is kind of cutting a very hard to i think navigate line here, where he gets to be himself, gets to sort of support trump, but also gets to sound like a more traditional republican. that is good for mike pence and maybe it's good for donald trump, too. >> as we get close to the end of a week that's seen an unprecedented republican freak-out over donald trump, what's freaking people out on capitol hill more, the things trump says or his plummeting

poll numbers? >> reporter: well, poll numbers are really kind of an early warning sign of where this could be going. it is an alarm bell that is at this point perhaps going to make some of these republicans rally around trump privately, there's talk of trying to get him to change. we saw little evidence of a more disciplined message from trump consistently going after hillary clinton at his portland, maine event. but he also veered into some of those sort of trumpian tributaries as he likes to do. but more consistently hitting hillary clinton, hillary clinton, hillary clinton. so the poll numbers are this warning shot. i think what trump says, many lawmakers are able to give themselves a little bit of distance, but they also need the coattails. they need an electorate that wants to show up and vote. so from the republican point of view, this is a dire warning about the way things could go and they can all fight their own campaigns but they really need a

way to get through to trump to try to be more disciplined, more focused, more typically professional candidate which is so against his brand. >> we like to trot out haley bo barbour whenever we can. he says in politics nothing is ever as good or bad it's seems. he also says in politics, good gets better and bad gets worse. republicans you are talking to, are they trying to say look, it may seem bad now but we can turn things around or do people see this as pretty dire and likely to continue a bad run for awhile? >> reporter: for the conversations i'm having, diaries more the word. there's anger, there's dismay, there's frustration, a sense of why can't they get this to be on track more. now, of course, it's completely predictable that trump would remain this gut mayor wplayer ws to do his own thing and push back on any sort of political advice. this notion that kind of the great minds of the party are

going to influence him is exactly the thing he would bristle against. it is a case where you have to convince him that it is in his own interest to stay focused on things, where he might be able to actually see progress in this campaign if he were to do that. so there's some evidence that the focus on hillary clinton message is getting through. but republicans i'm talking to are really, they are uncomfortable. they just done think that things show the signs of getting on track and hillary clinton has shown more strength coming out of her convention than they expected. >> kelly, thank you very much. >> reporter: always good to be with you guys. when we come back, we will be hash tag vinning with vin weber. ♪ using 60,000 points from my chase ink card i bought all the fruit... veggies... and herbs

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our next guest joins us by phone from minnesota, the state he represented in the house of

representatives for 12 years, republican former congressman vin weber. congressman weber, you have never been a big fan of donald trump but it seems as though your unfanhood has taken an even darker cast of late. tell us what you're thinking right now about the republican nominee. >> unfanhood is a good word and an understated word. i think the republican party's made an epic mistake and we have nominated somebody that's going to rip the party apart over policy. we have nominated somebody that is going to alienate every emerging and enlarging demographic in the country and we have -- we are beginning to see we have nominated somebody who may be a big drag on people down ticket which i haven't believed in until now but the most important thing is, we have nominated somebody that is contrary to the spirit of republicanism that i built -- tried to build all my life. i don't claim to have been the general but i was a foot soldier in ronald reagan's army and i was a chairman of jack kemp's campaign and this is not the

republican party that we wanted. >> i know you are loathe in some cases to give advice to others but what would you say to republicans on the ballot like paul ryan and others, what they should say now about donald trump different from what they are currently saying, if anything? >> very tough. i don't hesitate to say it's easier for me, i'm not running for anything. i get that. paul ryan has huge responsibilities, mitch mcconnell has huge responsibilities that i don't have. candidates for office have to cope with the base of their party. unhappy with the fact that they may not be totally -- >> stipulating, congressman, that it's tougher for them, what would you like them to do? >> i would like them to say that their agenda is not trump's agenda, their leader is not trump's leadership and say whatever they want about whether or not they will vote for him. that's really not my concern. my concern is that they talk about a republican agenda that is not donald trump's agenda.

>> congressman, do you think donald trump is mentally and emotionally stable enough to be president of the united states? >> i don't know that. i will leave that to others. >> there are those who are concerned about that very issue after the last few days. i'm just curious whether that's one of your concerns. >> i have followed that discussion but here's the honest truth. i don't need to have that question answered for my satisfaction. what he says about issues and what he says about different groups of people is quite enough for me. he could be perfectly mentally stable and balanced and all that, i'm still not for him. >> but do you think he's temperamentally, put it that way, suited to having control of the nuclear launch codes? >> i saw joe scarborough this morning or maybe yesterday morning saying he was discussing the use of nuclear weapons with somebody, so that's pretty scary to me. but i don't know -- i'm not here to argue anything about his mental stability. i don't know anything about that. i really will leave that to

others. i would say related to that, though, he is purely unqualified. he's the least qualified person to be president we have ever nominated. if you are a serious person about our country, about public policy, you have to wonder about putting someone in office regardless of their temperament who has not one day experience in any branch of government. >> short question, short answer. would you rather trump win in november or lose? >> i would rather that he lose. i say that with great, great pain in my heart because i'm a republican. my father was a republican. my grandfather was the president of the minnesota state senate as a republican. and the chairman of the wilke delegation to the '40 convention. but trump would be disastrous to the republican party i have tried to be part of all my life. >> all right. vin weber, last question. you going to vote for hillary clinton?

>> i don't know yet. ra i really don't. i'm not going to vote for donald trump. i listened to mitt romney talk about why he was voting for some third party or independent candidate but not hillary or trump. i'm weighing that. but i do listen to the trump people insistently telling me this is a binary decision. if they convince me of that, i will vote for hillary. >> there you go. thanks for being with us. we will now be joined from manchester, new hampshire, by our friend tom rath, who served as senior advisor to john kasich campaign and also dan senor, informal advisoor to house speaker paul ryan. i know you were never trump all along. but the question he will not go to which a lot of republicans are asking right now, donald trump, mentally and emotionally fit to be president of the united states? >> temperamentally, no. i actually think a danger to the country. i think if you go back about ten

months to, well, even longer, go back to his announcement, mexicans are rapists, then go ten months ago to his attacks about john mccain, there's a straight line between that and the events over the past weekend. i'm struck by the number of republicans who are so shocked by trump's attacks against the khan family these last few days, as though that's an inflection point. how that is any more of an inflection point from these 15 or 20 inflection points we have had over the last number of months? what we have seen throughout is a consistency in his behavior and the idea that that is going to change when he's president of the united states, people will argue that there's just no evidence to base that on. he's never changed his tune once. >> i will ask tom the same question. then we will go to break and bring you guys back. tom, same question. mentally, emotionally, temperamentally fit to be president of the united states, donald trump? >> well, not surprising i agree with dan. i have to say, one of the great jobs of a president is to be the comforter, to be the person who brings people together, who makes people feel like they are

part of something bigger. i think donald trump is a divider. he's not somebody who brings people together. we had a great example with ronald reagan when something hit home here, when the "challenger" exploded, ronald reagan spoke to everybody and had the capacity to bring them together. i don't think donald trump has that capacity. >> we will ask you guys about the practical implications and politics when we come back. stay with us. we will continue in just a moment. your car insurance policy is 22 pages long. did you read every word? no, only lawyers do that. so when you got rear-ended and needed a tow, your insurance company told you to look at page five on your policy. did it say "great news. you're covered!" on page five? no. it said, "blah blah, blah blah blah blah blah..." the liberty mutual app with coverage compass™ makes it easy to know what you're covered for and what you're not. liberty stands with you. liberty mutual insurance.

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back with our two big brained republican strategists, tom rath in manchester, new hampshire, dan senor here in studio with us. all politics is local is true every no, no more so than in new hampshire. you have kelly ayotte refused -- donald trump refused to endorse her. a poll comes out the next day showing her ten points behind in new hampshire in this poll where trump is even further behind. how much panic is there in her campaign and amongst new hampshire republicans about the capacity to keep that seat if trump doesn't turn things around? >> i wish they had taken that poll after he refused to endorse her because i think her numbers would be higher. i think it's a genuine concern but not to be totally light-hearted, his casting her aside really helps her here. independence is prized in other

senators. that seat was held by warren rudman for 18 years. it's a pretty important independent republican kind of seat. kelly ayotte fits that mold exactly. the numbers that are out today are frightening and scary but don't forget, there are three extra weeks in this so the bounce that goes up will settle some. i think new hampshire voters, you guys know, are very savvy and can split tickets and they know where the candidates are that they are looking for. i believe that impact will go down and frankly, as trump's numbers go down nationally, and he becomes less of a threat to win the presidency, the argument that electing kelly ayotte will help donald trump goes totally out the window. >> as a silver lining. what practical effect has there been amongst republicans you know from what trump has said and done in the last two weeks? >> i would say there's more panic now than i have ever seen before. there have been periods of panic in the past around judge curiel

but now i'm just hearing from more and more members, for instance, from the house who say maybe i should unendorse. i don't know if they will. two other things have to happen first. one is poll numbers have to really crash. we are starting to see bad poll numbers. by labor day if you have really bad poll numbers and he had a good fund-raising month but it's not clear that's sustainable. if it's not, if the rnc is underresourced and therefore, their infrastructure in the states are underresourced, and the trump campaign doesn't have real money, and his polls are bad, up against the backdrop of him saying pretty crazy, offensive things, i think you could see people speaking out more aggressively. i'm not sure they will start pulling back endorsements. my gut tells me that's not going to happen, unfortunately. >> paul ryan, when the judge curiel thing said you are a racist but i'm still going to endorse you, he got dissed by trump this week. he saw the khan thing, he was upset about that, the cute little thing with the pocket

constitution. what would it take to get paul ryan to say enough, i'm done with donald trump? >> i don't know the answer to that question. >> is there anything he can do other than shoot someone in the street? >> he said today his endorsement is not a blank check. he's pretty consistent about saying that. one could argue that this is not an unconditional endorsement. he said that today in his interview with the green bay radio station. i think what he's dealing with, look, i believe trump is a danger to the country and i believe that that statement needs to be made loud and clear. once that statement is made, obviously it's difficult to stand by the endorsement. what republicans and other leaders are dealing with is they believe regardless of who is president, hillary clinton or donald trump, it's really important the house republicans have their majority, hopefully the senate republicans have their majority. do you want mitch mcconnell and paul ryan in the room for either of those presidencies. the answer is probably yes. you want them to be a check on it. they believe that real divisiveness with the presidential campaign will make that harder. i don't share that analysis. i think they will be just fine and i don't think it will have

real electoral implications for house and senate republicans but that is what they are wrestling with and trying the balance. >> tom, new hampshire is a special state but as you said, it's politically attuned and ahead of the rest of the country in paying attention. waits i gre in the nomination fight it was great for trump and horrible for clint clinton. what has caused this huge turn-around, do you think? >> i think it's donald trump. don't forget, he got 33%, a good number in a field of 16, but not 60%. there has been a period of time where the idea of a trump presidency was inconceivable and then became possible and now that it's real he's the alternative, i think it's beginning to be one people cannot put their arms around and accept. and secretary clinton got beat badly up here but has been able to pull those people back in. they were never going to go to the republican side either. i will say that between the two of them, this is not an election at the moment that's sparking a great deal of enthusiasm out

there. i think everybody would rather have somebody else or some other choice. >> i know it's hard for you to think outside the borders of the granite state but i will ask you to do that. what do you think will be the tipping point at which we would start seeing mass defections away from trump? what would have to happen for that to happen? >> i think you are pretty close to it right now. i think dan's right, we have time to play out until labor day and i don't think the word endorsement means a bloody thing. it's a question of are they going to run their own races, is there going to be a unified effort. there's no indication from the trump high command that they want to bring other campaigns in. i think they are going to -- this is going to fade into irrelevance and as we get closer to the real day, the candidates are going to run their own campaigns and i'm sure there will still be the noise of the presidential race but i think on the ground it's not going to mean nearly as much as it usually does. >> if trump started doing what they say he's going to do and he suggests he would talk about hillary clinton and the economy, would that calm people down?

>> yes. i think it would calm people down. but it's really late. it's really late. it's not clear, look, if he has good debates, you can think of these moments where he could sort of perform well and the polling would look a little better but i think we are already in august. i think it's really late. the good news is, most of the senate republican campaigns that are competitive are pretty well resourced right now. give mcconnell a lot of request. he and his team and their super pac raised a lot of money, the campaigns have raised a lot of money. the senate candidates are in pretty good shape so even if trump collapses which i think he will, i think a lot of these senate republicans can hang on. if ryan and the house republicans can hang on to the majority, you know, it's not -- it will exceed expectations of where many of us thought things would be with trump at the top of the ticket. >> last percent chance trump has of winning? >> 20%, 30%. >> tom, percent chance of trump winning? >> i'm south of that, around 20%. >> even if you were getting on a

plane and the pilot said 20% chance of crashing, what would you say? >> i would say -- >> get me off this plane. >> i'll take the train. >> tom rath and dan senor, thank you both. up next we check in with one of the world's greatest political reporters. trust us. he is. you focus on making great burgers, or building the best houses in town. or becoming the next highly-unlikely dotcom superstar. and us, we'll be right there with you, helping with the questions you need answered to get your brand new business started. we're legalzoom and we've already partnered with over a million new business owners to do just that. check us out today to see how you can become one of them. legalzoom. legal help is here. the search for relief often leads here.s, introducing drug-free aleve direct therapy. a high intensity tens device that uses technology once only in doctors' offices. for deep penetrating relief at the source. new aleve direct therapy.

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all of us at some points in our lives play sports or maybe just played in a schoolyard or sandbox and sometimes folks if they lose, they start complaining that they got cheated, but i have never heard of somebody complaining about being cheated before the game was over. or before the score's even tallied. so my suggestion would be, you know, go out there and try to win the election. if mr. trump is up 10 or 15

points on election day and ends up losing, then maybe he can raise some questions. that doesn't seem to be the case at the moment. >> that was president obama at the pentagon press conference he held this afternoon answering a question about donald trump's recent suggestion that the election may be rigged against him already. calling on a friend today to help us put all this stuff in context, coming to us from los angeles, mr. hollywood himself, "new york times" l.a. bureau chief. adam, you covered a lot of presidential elections. just talk a little bit about this thing trump is doing, trying to inoculate himself in advance by claiming the system is corrupt. how does that stand out to you in your history of covering politics in terms of its unusualness? >> i guess what's hitting me is every time i see a story about trump these days it always has the word extraordinary in it. i'm trying to avoid that.

so two thoughts. one is, i will defer to you on this, i have become a little reluctant to try to look for strategy in what trump is doing because maybe there is one but maybe there's not. in this case, i have never, ever, ever, ever to your question seen a presidential candidate in advance try to spin his loss. you just don't do that. first of all, you could argue it's not good for democracy but second of all, you don't want to signal to your supporters you think you might lose. on every level i guess i would have to say it's extraordinary. >> adam, in the overall context here of trump, there's an expression turn in the barrel that candidates have their time when they are being scrutinized and criticized and everything looks bad and eventually it's time for the other candidate to get in the barrel. do you see an end in sight for trump being in the barrel? >> yeah. i'll tell you why. just for the reason you just said, that it goes back and forth. the campaign is so cyclical and what is it, three weeks ago we wouldn't be saying this. the other reason quite frankly is whatever else you think about hillary clinton, she really does

seem to have an ability to sort of let stuff rain down on her. so i just assume that something else will happen at some point. i have often wondered if i was in a campaign and actually trying to chart out week by week by week to make sure your turn in the barrel is not in the final week of the campaign. the other thing is i think as you guys know, we all like, the media really likes the sort of comeback story. it seems to me it will be inevitable -- maybe not inevitable, but that he's finally made the pivot, i can see that happening at some point. >> it wasn't all that long ago that those around trump suggested the following states would be the play. connecticut, oregon, maybe even california. do you think when they were saying those things, that they were just trying to bait the clinton campaign into putting resources into those states or do you think they were deluded enough tthink those very very very blue states were within donald trump's reach?

>> or maybe -- i think it's more b than a. the idea, you are from california, the idea that california would ever be in play is ridiculous. maybe they were doing it to sort of appease the candidate himself. maybe they were sort of fooling themselves. i don't think the clinton campaign certainly in california or connecticut is gullible enough to think we are really in play here. i'm pretty sure i am not seeing clinton come back here to california except to raise money since the end of the primary. i don't think they are sort of baitable on this. i just think it's the trump cam opinion being the trump campaign. the california thing is what struck me the most, because the last time a republican ran here was 1988, is that right, when you were like 20? right? and there's no reason to think that's going to change. the state has become more and more democratic. call me crazy, but trump's rhetoric on immigration probably doesn't work in a state where hispanics are almost or close to being majority minority in the state. i don't think it's helpful.

>> a lot of talk on this program and elsewhere about the potential for trump to be hurting down ballot candidates and we are seeing that in some of the polling now and the reaction from a few members of congress. how much would trump be hurt if more republicans on the ballot abandon him either unendorsed him or made clear they were not running as supporters of trump? >> i think it would hurt trump more. i think you would see people feeling, republicans feeling empowered to walk away from him. republicans who are sort of really party line, life-long republicans who have been reluctant to sort of abandon their party. it sort of enables them to walk away. i think that would be damaging. >> what about the argument he's an anti-establishment candidate and standing up to both parties would burnish his image with independents and republicans who don't like the way washington is going? >> speaking off the top of my head i would guess that's 45% of the electorate. doesn't win him an election. you need to do more than just that group of the electorate. i'm not sure trump has tried to do that, to expand beyond his

base. i guess what tom saidthe earlier segment about new hampshire, he won new hampshire but in a state with 16 people. running in a republican primary, even though independents are allowed to vote there, i don't think trump has understood. that would not be enough to win the election. >> data speaks in politics. how low do trump's poll numbers have to get for republicans enmasse to say okay, this is a lost cause, all of us have to fend for ourselves? >> i think what you have to see is -- i wouldn't look so much at the national numbers but what disturbed me is what you see today, which is him falling behind in key states, colorado would give me a lot of concern. new hampshire would give me a lot of concern. i see a poll showing him behind in arizona, that's the kind of thing. the national stuff, we love it, it's great, but the state stuff would really give me concern. if you saw a series of swing states where he's beginning to really be insurmountable, we are

nowhere near that. let's be careful. >> adam, cutting you off. i could listen to you all day. we love you so much. his stellar notebooks will last through june. get back to great. this week, these items just one cent each. office depot officemax. gear up for school. gear up for great.

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one last thing. a new nbc news/"wall street journal" poll is out. hillary clinton, 47%. donald trump 38%. thanks for watching. sayonara. >> "hardball with chris matthews" is next. mayday. every man for himself. let's play "hardball." good evening. i'm chris matthews from washington. this evening, president obama hit donald trump when he was down and boy, did he love piling on in this late in the day press conference. he did so as trump's campaign reached a scary new low point today with a pair of alarming poll numbers. according to the latest nbc