he overcomes injury to advance to the semi-final round. he got it! travis stevens forces the world number one, and he will fight for gold! if it's tuesday, big defections. a big polling deficit, and a big spending disadvantage. all for donald trump. >> the republican defections keep piling up. today it's maine senator susan collins. >> donald trump is just not suitable to be president of poln three swing states. is the surge continuing or is trump making ground? as the nra hits clinton with a new ad, what did donald trump mean by this? >> hillary wants to essentially abolish the second amendment. nothing you can do, folks. although the second amendment, people, maybe there is, i don't

know. >> this is mtp daily, and it starts right now. good evening, i'm chuck todd here in washington. welcome to "mtp daily" and welcome to what could be the point of no return for trump's candidacy. today is the day it felt like maybe the dam broke. trump is epically outspent, he's grappling with major defections in his own party, recovering from those second amendment comments you just heard, and perhaps, most alarmingly, if you're just candidate for president, the polling deficits continue. we have breaking news out right now from a trio of new maris batt battleground polls. in iowa trump is now up four points before the convention.

trump was up three in ohio which just hosted the republican convention. trump has jumped out to a five-point lead. even though iowa and ohio are close, keep this in mind. these are the two states that trump had been doing the best in this entire last three months. and then in pennsylvania, it's a big lead for clinton, 11 points, 48-37. for the convention, we had her up nine in the keystone state. considerable leads nonetheless. the biggest gains in all three states are something we're seeing as a pattern. it's among college-educated white voters. here the numbers don't look any different than they do on the national front. the varmonkey came out with a 10-point lead for clinton. it's even more when you look at certain demographic groups. republican susan kohl incollins

maine went public saying this quote. rejecting the conventions of political correctness is different from showing complete disregard for common decency. i have become increasingly dismayed by his constant stream of cruel comments and his inability to admit error or apologize. mr. trump lacks the temperament, self-discipline and judgment required to be president. those comments set off a small earthquake in the gop. senator collins joins me now. good afternoon, senator collins. thanks for coming on. >> thank you, chuck. great to join you. >> all right. you and i have had long conversations, i think, on air about this issue, about how -- whether or not you could support trump. the tipping point for you was what? >> the tipping point for me were trump's criticisms of the khan family who lost a son in iraq. it was inconceivable to me that

anyone, much less a presidential candidate, would criticize the grieving parents of a fallen soldier. i just couldn't understand that. then we saw mr. trump double down on his attacks on the khan family and actually suggest that it was mrs. khan's religion that was preventing her from speaking at the convention. so that was just a bridge too far for me. >> there was some new comments this afternoon. in case you didn't hear them, let me play the clip again. it had to do with the second amendment where donald trump took on hillary clinton. >> hillary wants to essentially abolish the second amendment. >> by the way, if she gets to pick her judges, nothing you can do,

folks. although the second amendment, people, maybe there is, i don't know. >> the clinton campaign did not like that last comment, and they have put out a statement on this, by the way, saying the following: this is simple, what trump is saying is dangerous. a person seeking to be president of the united states should not suggest violence in any way. that was clinton campaign manager robby mook. do you believe he was trying to incite violence there? >> i've been very critical of donald trump, but i actually don't think that's what he was saying. i think he was suggesting that the second amendment advocates across the country might be able to come together to pressure the senate to reject her nominee should she become president. that is how i interpreted it. but it is an example of donald trump's looseness with language that can lead to interpretations

such as the one put out by secretary clinton's camp. >> i heard you earlier today in an interview. i think you said you might write in jeb bush. i know you said you had supported him earlier in the primaries. it's possible maine is a swing state, that the votes may get split up. if you thought your votes were decisive, do you still not vote for hillary clinton? or if you thought your third party vote actually helped trump, would you end up voting for her? >> well, first of all, i don't think my one vote is going to turn the election in maine, so i think that's a hypothetical that's not going to occur. i have said that i cannot support either of our major party candidates, and that does leave me somewhat at a loss as to what to do. i looked at the libertarian

ticket, and if it were -- if bill weld, the senator of massachusetts, were on top, i would vote for him. i know him well and think highly of him. it's hard for me, based on what i know of him, to vote for governor johnson for president. so that's why i suspect that i'll end up writing in someone, probably jeb bush, but i haven't reached that decision yet. >> in september when you come back to work here in washington -- i'm not saying you're not working now -- but you come back to washington from the recess, do you want mitch mcconnell to bring up the mayor garland nomination? i ask this, if you don't want either clinton or trump, then you don't want either of them, i assume, picking the new york justice, so what would your recommendation be to senator mcconnell. >> i very much want just judge garland to be brought up before the full senate.

i spent an hour with him when he was first nominated, and i asked him some really tough questions about his philosophy, his views on the second amendment and many other issues, and i was really impressed with him. he's clearly qualified, he has the right temperament, and i think it was a very good nomination by president obama. i hope that he will be brought up, if not in september, in the lame duck session regardless of who is selected president. so i'm impressed. >> do you think that secretary clinton would nominate -- renominate him, or would you be concerned she might go with somebody more liberal and more progressive and you're better off going with garland? >> well, that's the very interesting scenario that i raised with my colleagues in the senate. and that is that they may be hoisted on their own patard

here. if hillary is selected, i believe she is much more likely to nominate someone who is to the left of merrick garland, because i believe that president obama deliberately and wisely, in my view, chose someone who was a centrist. it would be the height of irony if hillary wins and asks president obama to withdraw the nomination so she can make her own choice which i think almost certainly would result in a much more liberal nomination. and that's why i think it was a mistake not to consider judge garland. at least put him through the hearing process, see how he would do. i suspect he would do well. >> senator suns kosan collins, republican from maine. always great to talk to you. thanks for taking some time out today. i appreciate it. >> thank you, chuck.

let me bring in the panel right now, the newly minted associate professor of cranes detroit business will now be correspondent in the heartland, ron fiorne and democratic strategist chris farinas. is this date we painted for trump? you have another defection. we have these polls that show in his best states a single lead slipaway. how bad is it? >> horrible. he's bleeding. i think bargain an extreme and unexpected event, this race is over. he can't recover from this unless something really big and unforeseen happens. look what happened today. the remarks on the gun issue, listening to senator collins, i can understand why somebody might stop and think, okay, maybe he's talking about a political motivation. my first hearing of it -- if i

hear it that way, other people hear it that way. words matter when you're president. you don't talk about russia hacking secrets, you don't talk about beating up protestors in the audience. >> some people will hear certain things, and even senator collins seemed to say, hey, this is the problem. he's too loose. >> he's enjoyed his ambiguity of his comments in the past because he gets the press to talk about it, and then he gets to talk about what he really meant by it. this just helps his plan, if you agree with his plan or not. that being said, it's august. how many are paying attention? barring olympic attention, the p prelims don't really happen until labor day. >> this race has blown every stereotype we've had of politics, and that's a fair statement. that being said, there is a certain rule that applies to politics weathhether trump is t nominee or not. every day that he wastes, every

day that he's off message, every day he fights with republicans is a day he's not winning over voters. the pool of voters in this election is small. probably 15 to 20%. and that's probably extreme. >> everything post convention, there is now no difference between the two ways and the four ways, maybe a point or two, and there's very little undecided. the people that say neither, they basically split 2-1, johnson over stein. >> we could tell going into this convention, this would be an unpopularity contest, people deciding not who they'll vote for but who they'll vote against. donald trump has made an extremely compelling argument of why you should vote against him. >> that being said, though, you dive into the numbers more, what i think is actually the story of these conventions is that hillary's favorability numbers went up. his didn't change very much. >> and her trust numbers went up. >> yeah, so his just didn't do

much and these other scandals kept eroding at his numbers. >> it did do something. it kept hurting in key battlegrounds. the map is expanding in the clinton campaign right now. they're putting staff in there and they're actually thinking about putting resources in there, and they're pulling back from virginia ask kond colorado. where is the path for trump? it's getting narrower and narrower, and it's 90 days out. he doesn't have a field, so where does he win? >> this is where, i know, sara, you just said, oh, it's august. the kerry cap pain said that in 2004. 91 million for team clinton to 8 for team trump. by the way, the trump campaign still hasn't done any of their own advertising. it's all superpacs, and i know trump is trump and all those things, but you can lose a campaign badly in august. >> this isn't going to be one on the air. you're looking back at 2004 when

john kerry was still trying to define who he was, mitt romney was trying to define who he was, and the other side outdefined him first. that is not the problem in this race. hillary clinton and donald trump are defined brands. i'm surprised the clinton campaign is spending so much on air. i think it's a mistake. >> it is interesting, there is one piece of the electorate that has moved, though, post convention: college-educated whites. susan collins, the administration officials, all of these defectors. it seemed to me that's who they're speaking to. >> this is where i agree with you. i don't think it's advertising moving the needle, i think one thing donald trump is showing is a lie with tv advertising. the consultants get 10, 3, 5% of his cut. >> there is no creativity in television advertising right now in political television. there is great creativity at geico. where the hell is the creativity -- that drives me nuts. why can't anybody come up with a good ad campaign?

>> donald trump's behavior in public on social media and the conventions. that's what's changing the numbers you're talking about. >> i would say the ads, both negative and positive, have been limited at the least. where they're effective, they release certain stereotypes. the biggest thing for trump, as i see it, as long as this republican civil war continues, you'll have a narrative of republicans running away from him, and you're going to hear a new category of voters, and i know republicans will laugh at this, this idea of clinton republicans. just like you had reagan democrats. >> they're not real, they're not pro-clinton, they're just anti-trump. >> they create the same dynamic. >> sir, that's the problem. every morning jason miller wakes up and has to put out a republican fire and a clinton fire. >> yeah. it's unique to the cycle. that being said, i think if the democrats had nominated anyone else, you would see democrat

republicans. i don't think you're seeing that this cycle for a reason. hillary clinton, every time she holds a press conference, and i am going to put that in quotes based on the last press conference -- >> she has not had a press conference in what feels like six months, i think. eight months. maybe basketback in january. >> every time she does something like that, republicans are reminded, oh, no, not her. >> i'm going to pause it there. you guys are sticking around. we're going to dig a little deeper into donald trump's tax plan. we're going to talk to two candidates this cycle. libertarian nominee gary johnson and green party nominee jill stein both join me next. i'm going to give this place a killer review. i don't know, i just always thought maybe my bachelor party would be a little less g-rated. wench! ahhh! ahhh hahaha...

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have their way, they'll have to set up two podiums and make it a four-way. according to our new survey monk eypoll, hillary clinton is ahead by six points. clinton drops by seven in this one. gary johnson clocks in with double digits and jill stein is sitting in with 4%. but each of these four party candidates have to reach 50% before they can embrace the stage. in a year when the candidates have a historical low popularity, it is ripe for a third or fourth or fifth alternative. joining me now is libertari ere presidential nominee gary johnson. gary, good to have you here.

>> always good to be with you. thank you. >> i'll try not to interrupt you too much. number one, let me get you to respond to susan collins who has concerns about your drug use. talk to her. >> my drug use? well, honesty, i think, is first and foremost, so three months ago i was asked if i had used marijuana, and my answer was yes, and i hope in the context of honesty that she would appreciate that, and you know what, i'm one of 100 million americans who have consumed marijuana. we're not criminals. and as president of the united states, i don't think you should be on the job impaired. it's a 24/jo7 job, so i'm not going to consume marijuana or alcohol. same with vice president, it's a 24/7 job. i'm not consuming marijuana and it's been 27 years on the

alcohol. i'm not saying i'm an alcoholic, it's about being the best you can be. >> do you think 50% is a fair threshold to meet to get into the debates? >> chuck, i think 15% is fair. what's not fair is not being included in the top line when the polls go out. in other words, the top line is clinton and trump, and then maybe two or three lines down you add johnson to that equation, and then 99% of the media only reports on that top line. so that's what's not fair. if it were a top line question right off the bat, bill weld and myself being on the ballot in all 50 states, how about johnson, trump, clinton? i bet we would be at 20% if that were a top line question. >> okay, fair enough. but what else can you do? i mean, look, i understand you want more media attention. you and i have been at this a

long time. i can't remember a presidential campaign where i've seen the libertarian nominee get as much attention as you've gotten. so you're sitting at 10%. has it turned into money? should we expect to see you with tv ads soon? i guess i would ask, why do you think you haven't spiked more? do you really think it's all due to media coverage? >> well, first of all, you've got an assumption here that why haven't we spiked more, when the reality is that just in the last several weeks, maybe the last four weeks, we've effectively doubled. so the momentum that we're seeing on this side is very significant, and two former republican governors reelected in heavily democrat states, hey, we're offering a big six-lane highway down the middle between the extremes of clinton who is big government and trump, who is just about as isolationist as it

gets. he said 150 things that would disqualify anybody else from being president of the united states. but just turn the page and there will be something else that he has to say. >> are you comfortable being a spoiler? >> well, look, if you want to waste your vote and vote for clinton or trump, have at it. look, a wasted vote is voting for somebody that you don't believe in. i think that we are offering up something that most americans can believe in. smaller government, smaller government is a good thing. that's less money out of your and my pockets, and being socially inclusive, accepting. and regarding these military interventions, when it comes to regime change, it's had the unintended consequence of making the world less safe, not more safe. chuck, a couple weeks ago, active military personnel.

there was a poll done, and they favored johnson-weld 39% to trump 31 to clinton 20. i think that speaks volumes. >> it does, and libertarian candidates in the past have also done better with libertarian parties in the past. that's the best i've heard. gary johnson, appreciate you coming o. we had a tough satellite delay but i appreciate you being parrot. now i'm bringing in nominee jill stein. let me start with a question that i asked governor johnson, which is, do you think 15% is a fair threshold? >> i think the american people are clamoring for more voices and more choices. the american people dislike and distrust the two establishment candidates. i think the american people not only have a right to vote, but they have a right to know who they can vote for.

and as a candidate like gary johnson on the ballot for just about every voter that has actually a mathematical potential of winning the race, voters have a right to know about us. the commission on presidential debates is controlled by the democratic and republican parties. this commission was called a fraud being perpetrated on the american public by both walter cronkite and by the league of women voters. i think we need a public service set of debates that actually informs and empowers voters, especially when they are tearing their hair out at these two terrible choices that have both been a part of the system, this rigged system that's throwing people under the bus. >> why shouldn't there be a threshold? why shouldn't there be a, hey, you know, you have to meet minimum requirements beyond ballot access? >> if you look at donald trump, he got $2 billion worth of free media, and that was about two months ago.

hillary clinton got 1 billion worth of free media. senator sanders got about half of that. gary johnson has gotten a little bit and i've gotten almost none. i think this is not what democracy looks like. voters are clamoring for something else. who is the big corporate media to deny voters the right to know who they actually can vote for to create real jobs, to end the climate crisis, to cancel student debt like we did for the crooks on wall street. we can do that for the young people. and to make higher education free, it actually pays for itself. these are the solutions my campaign is talking about, gary johnson has his. voters deserve to know what their choices actually are to get them out of this hole that they are stuck in. >> for what it's worth, we as a news organization have nothing to do with the principle on debates. one of the reasons hillary

clinton is opening up a lead is skeptical sanders support issers pre-convention. we're seeing more of them move over to her than you. i think a lot of people wondered, could you woo some of these voters? many of them have not come your way. why do you think that is? >> well, it would be nice if they were informed. it would be nice if we were being covered so that they knew about us. i'm sure you were at the convention, and what you saw there was people saying jill, not hill, carrying our signs around. we saw the delegates streaming over to our campaign. i was propelled forward in the rallies where i became really the headliner of these rallies that i had nothing to do with organizing. so we've seen on the day that bernie endorsed hillary, we saw the floodgates open to our campaign. donations, volunteers, help getting on the ballot, and i encourage people to go to jill2016.com and join that team. >> fair enough. let me ask you this, though.

some democrats, in wooing bernie voters at the convention, used ralph nader's name and said in 2000, look at the difference ralph nader made in new hampshire. look at the difference a ralph nader voter made in the state of florida. let me ask you, are you comfortable if your percentage was seen as the difference between trump carrying a state and clinton carrying a state if your voters prevented clinton from carrying it but gave it to trump and the presidency. would you be comfortable with that? >> i'm not comfortable with donald trump gettingie le electd i'm not comfortable with hillary clinton getting elected. donald trump says horrific things, and hillary clinton led us to catastrophe in libya. who wants to start an air war over syria with russia that could lead us into a nuclear n

conflagration? >> so you don't think one is worse than the other? >> i don't think what donald trump says s in fact, worse than what hillary clinton has done. donald trump says horrible things about immigrants, but hillary clinton, on the other hand, has been dropping bombs. she approved the war in iraq that killed 1 million people alone in iraq. i think we're in a very dangerous situation right now. if you look at the $6 trillion that we have spent on these wars against terror, they've only created worse terrorist threats, mass refugee migrations in failed states. and that 6 trillion comes down to about $50,000 per american family by the time we've paid for the health care for our wounded veterans. so we're not going for it. if you look at the climate crisis, there again, we need to stand up. we're the ones that have the

solutions, we're the ones we're waiting for. i say reject the evil and embrace the good like our lives depend on it. >> we may owned by a corporate partner, but as you can see on mtp daily, we make sure everyone has their voice heard. >> thank you very much. still ahead, we are auditing donald trump's tax plan. stay tuned. you should be getting double miles on every purchase! switch...to the capital one venture card. with venture, you earn unlimited double miles on every purchase, everywhere, every day. not just ...(dismissively) airline purchases. seriously... double miles... everywhere. what's in your wallet? be the you who doesn't cover your moderate to severe plaque psoriasis. be the you who shows up in that dress. who hugs a friend. who is done with treatments that don't give you clearer skin. be the you who controls your psoriasis with stelara®

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you know, yesterday i had a big event, really. it turned out to be a very big event in detroit. the thing i'm doing, i'm cutting taxes big league, especially for the middle class and especially for businesses. because businesses are dying, and that means small businesses and businesses, period. >> that was donald trump earlier today rallying a crowd in

wilmington, north carolina. he certainly made a lot of claims about his plans for the economy. and he extended an olive branch to the republican establishment matching his tax brackets to the plans laid out this summer. he talked about trade, immigration and threw some read meat to auto and steel makers. progressives said it sounded more like a speech from an early era than a vision for 21st century. a trump supporter, occasional, i guess, unpaid adviser, and david k. johnston, pulitzer prize winning reporter and author of "the making of donald trump," the book. larry, let me start with you, because i want to start with one claim here that's been totally debunked by his plan and that is the elimination of the carried interest deduction. trump said it's going to be gone. now, according to his plan, it's actually going to be taxed at a lower rate than it is currently

now, so he would actually be lowering taxes for that group of folks. was this a mistake? >> i don't get that. in the speech he took it out. did someone put it back in? i don't get that. carried interest is completely unnecessary, particularly must have low corporate rates of 15% for large and small businesses, and when you have the higher income rates for individuals, coming down to 33%. chuck, i don't know that. >> so you think the carried interest should be taxed at an income rate. >> i think carried interest can be taxed at either a personal rate, which would go down from about 34 to 33, or they might want to restructure and come out as corporations and take a 15% rate. i don't think we know yet how those details are going to work. but this is such a small piece, chuck. i mean, the whole panoply of mr. trump's tax reform -- >> we're going to get to them, larry, i promise. >> he's saying lower taxes for growth. >> i'm getting to it, i'm

getting to it. david, let me ask you this. walk me through the so-called estate tax. obviously some people call it the death tax here. he would, according to the cbpp, eliminating a state tax would cost $269 billion in lost revenues over the next decade and would add 320 billion to the federal deficit. obviously that is something that is not good long-term here, and it is a benefit that only skews to the wealthy. >> yes. about two people who died this year out of every thousand would be subject to the estate tax. most of the money in estates are gains, appreciated gains that have never been taxed. you can now pass -- i was just meeting with some leading tax lawyers who were telling me that it's now easy to pass under the current rules a billion dollars without paying any tax through all the devices that have been dreamed up by accountants and lawyers that have been blessed

by the courts and the irs. part of donald's pitch is he's there to protect the family farm. well, with no tax plan, a married couple can pass $11 million. the average house in this country is worth 1.2. no one has ever been able to find a farm, since 1981, lost to the estate tax. >> larry, let me ask you this. why this math has been working this way for a long period of time. why is this such an important issue for many republicans like yourself? >> are you talking to me? >> yes, i am, larry. >> thank you. look, the argument has always gone that that income that these people -- it doesn't have to be farmers, by the way, it can be any small business people and whatnot, could be store owners. you go down through the years, you build a business, you're taxed once on your income, and

you may be tax aid secoed a sec on your capital gains. you may be taxed a third time on dividends. you may be taxed a fourth time. the loopholes are really more warren buffett type loop holes when he gets to use the charitable deduction and put it all into a foundation that he and bill gates run. a lot of small businesspeople -- i respect david. he's been on my show before. is it the biggest thing in the world? no. does it seem unfair to be triple and quadruple tax for a family that's been worked on for 15 years and pass it on? i don't think that's a bad thing, that's a good thing. >> many of the tax cuts he was bragging about, let's go through it here. the cut on carried interest, deductions on child care cost, limiting corporate incomes to 15%, eliminating the estate tax. i know you said you believe this will all benefit the middle class. but a lion's share of these tax

cuts benefit the wealthy, the folks that need the benefit the least. right now the trump supporter is an angry middle class person who is wondering, why are you giving the rich guy more benefits, larry? >> who is the rich guy? who is the rich guy? is the corporation the rich guy? >> that's what i'm asking. >> let me just make this case. the harder the plan, which is the business tax cuts, large and small companies, they are going to benefit those tax cuts. they benefit wage-earning, middle income people the most. and there are studies after studies on this point all the way to martin feldstein, the heritage foundation, they benefit the most. that's why i call this a middle income tax cut. it frees up our businesses. it's going to allow more money to be invested here. money is going to come into the united states from overseas. all of that is good. we'll be competitive around the world.

but look, imagine this. a company that has a high tax rate, let's say they stay here and they eat the high tax rate. that just means the wage earner is not going to get the raise, is not going to get the health care benefits, is not going to get the tax benefits. it opens the door for wage increases. >> laerrry, i've given you the first word. david, let me give you the last word on that. middle class will benefit more on the long run? >> no, they won't on this tax plan. first of all, if you're rich enough to have a private jet and five nannies, donald will now make all your wages tax deductible. every year i do an analysis of incomes, and guess what? since 2000 when george w. bush said my tax cuts will make everybody better off, americans have realized $7 trillion less income than we have in 2000. we need a completely new tax

code. i am writing a completely new tax code, and some of the criticisms that larry makes, i think, are quite right. but all this little stuff around the edges, that's not going to fix anything. we need a tax code for the 21st century economy, not a tax code designed for 1960. >> but that's how we must be competitive. i say that to david and to chuck. the business tax reform makes america competitive again, and that's how the wage earner benefits. >> if everybody could agree on everything, the entire tax code does need to be rewritten at this point. >> i agree. david k. johnson is a terrific scholar on this stuff, no question. >> all right, guys. we got some agreement. let's scrap the whole thing and start over. we're going to round up the rest of the day's political headlines next in the lid. stay tuned. ...but they couldn't miss the show. so dad went to the new safelite-dot-com. and in just a few clicks, he scheduled a replacement...

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>> i fully appreciate how hard life is for so many americans today. >> and out of touch hypocrite. she would leave you defenseless. >> i think what donald trump was clearly saying was that people who cherish that right, people who believe that firearms in the hands of law-abiding citizens makes our communities more safe, not less safe, should be involved in the political process and let their voice be heard. >> all right. we rolled two things back-to-back. i was going to roll the other thing. the other is a brand new ad from the nra that is running i believe it's one of the biggest ad buys, anti-clinton ad buys out there, $3 million national ad, mostly cable. the ad itself, we get what they're doing. you heard mike pence's comments. when you start the sentence with what donald trump clearly meant to say, it's never a good day. that's not the first time mike pence has had to do that. >> no. normally the role of the vice president is the attack dog. this is a little bit of a different but consistent role

for this vice presidential position. that being said, it's kind of working for them. donald trump doesn't need an attack dog. explainer in chief kind of works for mike pence. i still think that the pushing on hillary clinton's liar, untrustworthy, corrupt buttons is better than the second amendment nra side but i think this is effective. >> ron, i'm not convinced the nra ad has anything to do with donald trump's candidacy. to me it's almost aimed at rob portman voters, potentially, and chuck grassley voters and pat toomey -- maybe not pat toomey. >> what lobbying groups do so well, dividing people so they can raise money. mike pence, good guy. i admire him. we know him personally in our neighborhood when he lived here. he's like the guy at the circus whose job is to walk behind the elephant cleaning up the stuff. what a miserable job. >> there you go. >> on hillary clinton, you can have a lot of problems with her

policy, you might not think she's strong enough on second amendment but you cannot say, it is inaccurate to say she is proposing to take away people's guns. that's wrong. that's a lie. they should be ashamed of themselves. >> this rhetoric is working with a lot of gun owners. it's firing them up per se. the question is, is it decisive? >> it's firing them up but that's a commercial that kind of speaks to an audience that has already decided how they're going to vote. does it help maybe gin up his base? maybe to some extent. the biggest problem for trump right now at this point in the race is he's got to figure out how to talk to those college educated whites, those moderate independent swing voters, those suburban moms and right now, there is no message coming out of his mouth that would appeal to those critical voting blocs. until he does that, the dynamics of the race don't change. >> that ad doesn't affect them. >> no. >> two things i think a lot of people want to know. number one is, you talk about college educated whites. let me throw breakdowns from the

three new polls, ohio, pennsylvania and iowa that show the difference pre and post-convention. the first one we are putting up is ohio here or iowa. i assume it's on. let's put it up. as you can see, a modest switch in ohio, 39-34. before the convention, 45-37. let me put up these iowa numbers and pennsylvania numbers. you saw more dramatic moves here. in iowa, from 44-37 lead to clinton to 56-25. ouch. now take a look at pennsylvania. 47-37 to 53-32. that's what we have seen nationally. >> yes. i think where these numbers will really start to matter even more significantly is when you look at the down ballots. a lot of the senate candidates on the republican side are running about four to seven points ahead of donald trump. so when you start looking at him losing by eight, nine, ten, it's like a rising tide. he will sweep out the senate. if he loses by over ten he could

sweep out a lot of house members. >> we can throw up not a lot of down ballot. let me throw them up very quickly. not a lot of down ballot changes here. in iowa i believe it was ten points on either side, pre-convention, post-convention. no change. you have to feel good there. let's go to the next state. this is ohio. portman actually has opened up a lead post-convention. then finally pennsylvania. i think we have a basically no movement there. if you are a republican senate candidate in those three states you have to feel good. good's not the right word. relieved. >> not if you understand it in the internet age. you are more connected than ever to the top of the ticket. it's really hard not to have a nationalized race. they have to be scared to death. >> thank you all. to win, every millisecond matters. both on the track and thousands of miles away. with the help of at&t, red bull racing can share critical information about every inch of the car from virtually anywhere.

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that does it for us. we'll be back tomorrow with more "mtp daily." have a great night. good evening. we were going to be talking about some new polls from battleground states and about donald trump's attempts to avoid personal attacks aimed at people who come out against him. late today, the republican nominee for president scrambled our plans and created yet another firestorm for his campaign. watch for yourself what trump said this afternoon at a rally in wilmington, north carolina.