>> headed to a shootout. if it's monday, donald trump's road to the white house gets even narrower. tonight we'll head to the board as we navigate the newest battleground map. >> political correctness has replaced common sense. >> plus, donald trump looks back to move forward. >> in the cold war we had an ideological screening test. >> and vice president biden's scranton homecoming rally cry. >> no major party nominee has known less or been less prepared to deal with our national security than donald trump. >> this is "mtp daily," and it starts right now.

and good evening. i'm steve kornacki in new york in for chuck todd tonight. welcome to "mtp daily." we have a major shake-up in the nbc news battleground map to tell you about. hillary clinton is surging. we're going to get to the big board and go through all of it just a minute from now. as trump looks to pull his campaign out of a tailspin. today he delivered a major address on terrorism in the battleground state of ohio. trump notably reading mostly from a teleprompter. this was a scathing attack on u.s. policy combatting extremism. trump proposing an ideological test for muslims and for others who want to come to america or already have. >> i call it extreme vetting. i call it extreme -- extreme vetting.

the support networks will be stripped and removed one by one viciously if necessary. viciously if necessary. those who are guests in our k country that are preaching hate will be asked to return home immediately and if they don't do it we will return them home. >> now trump appeared to back off earlier claims that president obama and hillary clinton founded isis, which he later down played as sarcasm. but he still unload ed on his democratic rivals. >> the obama/clinton foreign policy unleashed isis. hillary clinton lacks the judgment, as said by bernie sanders, stability, and temperament, and the moral character to lead our nation. she also lacks the mental and physical stamina to take on isis

and all the many adversaries we face. >> that speech from donald trump trying to go back on offense in this presidential race coming amid a major shake-up in the road to 270 that's left trump reeling. a couple weeks ago both parties had their conventions when the republicans finished, donald trump had actually moved ahead of hillary clinton in some polls. then the democrats the went. then trump stepped into a bunch of controversies. now here's what we're looking at. right now our nbc news forecast looks at these states as genuine tossups. we're looking at these as basically 50/50 shots here. it's notable for a couple reasons. first of all, look at that, georgia, who thought at the beginning of this campaign that at this point we'd be talking about georgia, a state that last voted for a democrat in a presidential election all the way back in 1992. right now that is a tossup state here. maine, by the way, you see the stripes. that's one congressional d

district in maine that's around the bangor area, it's the largest geographic part of the state. that's a tossup that trump hopes to pick off, one electoral vote you could get there. look what this map is missing. the tossup states, a lot of the states we think of as major battlegrounds, every single election. notably absent on here, let's show you why that is. what is trending blue right now. the solid blue, the deep blue, look like they're set to be h l hillary clinton states. the lighter blue, states that are leaning in her direction. and this is what i'm talking about, pennsylvania, the start of this election. that could be a tossup state. trump said michigan/wisconsin. he wanted to make noise there. not right now. how about this, colorado, virginia, north carolina -- these are states in some cases that were republican for generations, specifically virginia, carolina, too, pretty much colorado voted for george w. bush back in 2004. these were states that president obama won. he won carolina once out of the two elections. but by small margins.

now, though, hillary clinton's opened up double digit leads in two of these states. up nine in a north carolina poll. these are leaning to hillary clinton. that tells you a lot about the trajectory. let's look at the flip side of this now on the republican side. the solid red are states that look safe for trump at this moment. but look at the lighter shade of red, that tells you the other side of what's going on here. in arizona a state that last voted for a democrat back in 1996 in bill clinton's re-election. in south carolina -- south carolina right now, you see movement away from the republican nominee potentially towarded democrat that is not a sure thing on this map for donald trump. how about utah. utah that went for mitt romney by 48 points in 2012. that last went for a democrat in 1964. the lbj landslide over barry goldwater. it has moved away from donald

trump. this doesn't mean trump is going to lose it necessarily but he has to worry about it right now. this is the problem for donald trump right now. it is a twofold problem for him. the states he wanted to be target iing, he wanted to flip from blue to red, those states are going toward hillary clinton right now. and the states he hoped he'd be able it to take for granted, some of them may be coming loose from the trump coalition. that's what the map looks like when it's getting away from a candidate. let's show you the movement. since the conventions colorado, new hampshire, north carolina, pennsylvania, virginia, these were tossup states before the conventions. all of them now lean democratic states. georgia has moved into the tossup category. the only good news for donald trump, the only pie of good

news, it is in the big state of florida. it was leaning democratic before the convention. it has ticked in trump's direction by a couple points. you say silver lines, given the map we showed you winning florida wouldn't make a difference but he has a deep hole he's put himself in after these conventions. to ka it ty -- katy tur. he was talking from the teleprompter, reading a prepared speech but still a speech that pushed the energy a little bit. >> reporter: it certainly did. he was laying out the pillars of his security plan, stricter immigration. in that he talked about extreme vetting and an ideological test for those trying to get into

this country that outlined that they supported american values such as openness. also about commissions that he wants to create that would define radical islamic terror and warning signs. give those warning signs to local police and allow them to create a protocol for trying to spot that. basically what he's doing is banking on a majority of americans willing to give up some of their civil liberties in order to protect their safety here at home. he's saying hillary clinton will only allow isis to flourish overseas and endanger americans abroad and at home, and that he's the one who will stop it. we did not hear today as you mentioned earlier that he called president obama the founder of isis. he's clearly trying to back away from that realizing that the extreme statements which he later called sarcasm aren't

necessarily helping his cause. you laid this out really well, steve. his support right now especially in the battleground states is not growing. he needs it to grow in order to win this election. so far these controversies have only haunt ed him and that's wh now you're seeing donald trump come back and push so forcefully against the media trying to say it's a media narrative that is focusing on his outrageous statements instead of focusing on the policy in his campaign. >> katy tur in youngstown, ohio. "new york times" reporter, mtv national correspondent, and nbc news political analyst and former adviser to rand paul's campaign, elise jordan. well, nick, we went through the battleground map right there. donald trump needs to take states that right now they got blue when we start painting them in. he has to bring them over to the republican side. did you hear, did you see anything in the speech today that could put him in better position in those battleground

states? >> i think i see the beginnings of something that might possibly do that. he has to add, add, add. he has to add people who want to support him. so having a consistent message on terrorism, on security could do that. this is done on the immigration ban, the muslim ban. it's heavy in a more polished form, controversial pieces that have gotten him in trouble in the past. >> you're saying get a message. >> it's the first step is having a message every day, right? >> what did you hear, elise? we went through the controversial proposals and we could talk about that a little bit. i also did hear the part where he talked about we're not going to do nation building anymore and i thought if there is potential for trump to reach a new audience that republicans haven't reached it's with that particular rhetoric. >> i think this actually is a smart strategy for trump if he could stay on message, that consistently among republican voters and having worked on senator paul's campaign and

getting to know what the republican electorate was looking for in the primary. isis, fear of isis, fear of muslim immigration, those rank really, really high. if he can exploit those fears, that could be helpful to him. he just so far hasn't been able to stay on message. >> what did you make of it? >> i saw a really ridiculous concentration on isis as a sole foreign policy problem. there are other foreign policy issues and he did not address them. for instance you have all these different groups around the world that he just did not address and, also, he did not pull in what i think the youth vote. you have 56 to 20 right now in the "usa today" poll that youth are supporting clinton over trump. what in that speech did we hear that will appeal to any group he doesn't have? i don't understand how this does anything but solidify support he has has. >> the words were striking, too.

he used the word extreme vetting, the word extreme a number of times. he was emphasizing that. used the word vicious if need be. he's going for a it particular audience here. >> i think he's trying to do one thing, which is there's an audience for people who want us toe strong and who want us to destroy isis but are wary of the overseas conflicts. i think rand paul was touching on some of those audiences when he ran for president. it's interesting to see him make that appeal of somehow crushing isis without getting too involved over there so to speak which is interesting to me. >> this wasn't a foreign policy vision. this was just kind of a mismatch of different pet issues donald trump has and especially issues that poll well so it could be to his advantage. maybe he is trying to listen to his team of advisers who say these are the issues we're going to attack going forward and that's why he chose to talk about what he did. what i also noticed in contrast to the first major foreign

policy speech at the center for national interest, that speech was more polished. he had had some weigh-in from establishment types. it wasn't, of course, i wouldn't give it sterling reviews. it was also a mismatch but was loftier and this speech you can really tell there is absolutely none of that influence because everyone in the foreign policy circle has abandoned donald trump. >> and the extreme vetting piece, jamil, what is that? it's a substitute for details to call it more and more of something. >> it's also there's a movement here to dance away from the outright explicit call for a temporary ban. so there's an attempt there to finesse that. when you've gone down the road, finessing it results in something like this. >> it seems like rewhacking it and this idea of commission to fight for radical islam, frankly sounds mccarthy-ite.

you have the idea of getting communities or to help the government basically identify potential terrorist actors in your neighborhood, in your city. how exactly is that going to work? we already have commissions and intelligence network and people informing for us. it's the lack of detail in favor of calling it more extreme or tougher or something like that. >> big picture, though, donald trump sees as the greatest threat america faces isis, terrorism, muslim immigration and that's what the big takeaway from the speech but also you don't get any of the other major concerns such as our relationship with china. it's all about trade. >> how broad is that appeal? how many americans does that reach? is that just the republican base you're look iing to there or do that reach people? >> i think the voters trump

needs are going to be more concerned with isis and with terrorism. he needs to excite the base. >> he has to do more than the base at this point. >> at this point he has to broaden and reach voters who want to see that he can handle the host of foreign policy threats the next president will be confronted with, and he really didn't demonstrate that today in the speech. >> if you're going to talk about terrorism, you have to talk about dough mmestic terrorism, is he going to do to eliminate the home grown threats here. not just muslim terrorism but domestic terrorism done by people who are going to charleston churches and shooting people. all the things he listed at the top of the speech you didn't hear -- you heard some things edited out. >> nick, jamil, elise, stay with us. much more from trump's speech in youngstown including new rhetoric on russia. also, vice president biden has some sharp words for trump as he joins up with hillary clinton on the trail in his native state of pennsylvania. we'll have the details ahead.

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we face real serious challenges in america. we need serious leadership. this is not a reality tv show. it's as real as it gets. look at what's happening in milwaukee right now. we have urgent work to do to rebuild trust between police and communities and get back to the fundamental principle. everyone should have respect for the law and be respected by the law. >> that was hillary clinton earlier today addressing the ongoing tension between police in the milwaukee community in wake of a fatal police shooting on saturday. donald trump has not yet spoken publicly about this shooting and we do not know if he plans to address it tomorrow when he will be in the milwaukee area for a prescheduled rally. police in milwaukee are working to keep the peace tonight after two nights of violent proe tete.

14 officers were injured. the police chief thanked the community for spending time with protesters and urging calm. a 10:00 p.m. curfew will be in place for teenagers and will be strictly enforced tonight. we will keep you updated on any developments in the story. more "mtp daily" in 60 seconds. when it comes to healthcare, seconds can mean the difference between life and death. for partners in health, time is life. we have 18,000 people around the world. the microsoft cloud helps

our entire staff stay connected and work together in real time to help those that need it. the ability to collaborate changes how we work. the abwhat we do togethere changes how we live. i also believe that we could find common ground with russia in the fight against isis. wouldn't that be a good thing? >> welcome back, donald trump today didn't back away from saying he wants to strengthen ties with russia but his desire to bridge divides with vladimir pugh continues comes after his own campaign chairman's ties to pro-russian politicians. paul manafort $13 million in payment as part of an illegal off-the-books system that is according to a ledger obtained by "the new york times" in a new

report today. he denies there is any wro wrongdoing here and says he has never received a single off the books cash payment and anti-corruption officials leading the investigation have not yet determined whether he did, indeed, receive the money. the payments allegedly were made between 2007 and 2012. we do know manafort served in an advisory role before joining trump's campaign. hopes to move to a future that brings russia closer to the united states in the fight on terror. joined by msnbc contributor michael mcfaul. you know manafort's role. what do you make of the new story? manafort is denying anything is up. what do you make of it? >> well, we obviously know that he worked for mr. yankovich. he wasn't working for free.

that's not what his company does. he was paid handsomely for a long relationship with mr. yankovich. if he wants to clarify what he got paid, he should just tell us, release the documents. let us know, let's see if he paid taxes on the money and let us know exactly how much he was paid and by whom from either mr. yankovich or his associates. >> part of the back story there was controversy in regards to the republican platform, the republican platform, the language was changed about arming the ukraine forces to fight rebels over there. this apparently, some reporting, saying this was at the insi insistence, the urging of paul manafort. he talked to chuck todd about this. this is what happened. >> how much influence did you have on changing that language, sir? >> i had none. i didn't even hear of it until after our convention was over.

>> where did it come from then? everyone has said it came from the trump campaign. if not you, who? >> i don't hoe who everybody is -- >> so nobody from the trump campaign wanted that change in the platform? >> no one. zero. >> i'm curious if the trump campaign, if paul manafor it t or the trump campaign in general wanted to show there is nothing to this idea of closeness between the campaign and russia, what could, what should they be doing right now? >> many republicans criticized and have continued to criticize the obama administration for not doing so. somebody made a decision to change that. let's be clear, tracing the causal link between mr. manafort and those who did it i can't tell, but somebody made that degs to pitch ott this other way. but, secondly, you don't need mr. manafort to talk about mr.

trump's support for putin's policies. putin doesn't want the united states to arm you cane. putin wants the united states to recognize the annexation of crimea. mr. trump said he would look into that. putin wants to weaken nato. mr. trump is doing that in the suggestions that we have to have people pay us for protection. by the way, that's not even the way nato works, but leave that aside. putin wants us to stop talking about democracy and human rights. that's what mr. trump is saying. so on most foreign policy issues mr. putin supports, mr. trump also supports them. >> what about the issue of the fight against isis? trump made the argument, look, russia would be a terrific ally in the fight against isis. we don't we team up with them, take on isis. >> and i wonder, has he been watching what the obama administration has been doing for the last year and a half? has he been reading the news

about mr. secretary kerry's efforts to do that? if the russians would actually start fighting isis and syria the obama administration agrees with that. the problem is that they have other objectives in syria. their first is to support mr. assad, and as a result of that disagreement we haven't been able to coordinate as well as we would like to on syria. that's not news. that's obama administration policy right now. >> we talked about donald trump's speech in youngstown today. he ut that proposal on the table in the primary campaign about a temporary ban on muslim immigration into the united states. the new way to frame this is to call for ideological screening test for new arrivals into the united states, not clear exactly how it would work. let me play how donald trump talked about that today. >> the common thread linking the m major terrorist attacks that

have recently occurred on our soil, they have involved immigrants or the children of immigrants. in the cold war -- [ applause ] we had an ideological screening test. the time is overdue to develop a new screening test for the threats we face today. >> developing a new screening test. what's your reaction to what donald trump is saying there? >> again, i just, you know, we have screening tests. it's not likwe don't have that aspiration in mind and maybe it needs to btweaked. i'm all for that. but it's not like this is new. that's the general problem with what most of mr. trump says when he says we should destroy isis, who disagrees with that? we have something called operation inherent resolve. you can see all of the things we're already doing to destroy isis.

the question i have as somebody interested in policy is what specifically is he proposing that would be a departure, an improvement and that's where i don't see any real ideas. >> former ambassador, thanks for the time. >> thanks for having me. >> all right. and the fbi is set to release new information from its investigation into hillary clinton's private e-mail server. that story and much more still ahead. stay with us. pitch you investment opportunities. i've got a fantastic deal for you- gold! with the right pool of investors, there's a lot of money to be made. but first, investors must ask the right questions and use the smartcheck challenge to make the right decisions. you're not even registered; i'm done with you! i can...i can... savvy investors check their financial pro's background by visiting smartcheck.gov start the interview with a firm handshake. ay,no! don't do that! try head & shoulders instant relief. it cools on contact, and also keeps you 100% flake free.

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still to come on "mtp daily" the vice president shares more bidenisms as he takes on donald trump in the keystone state. highlights from joe biden's debut on the clinton campaign circuit next. but first, the cnbc market wrap with hampton pearson. we saw stocks climb with all three indexes hitting new highs. the dow up by 59 points. the s&p adding six. the nasdaq riding by 29 points. it was another winning session for crude which jumped nearly 3%, up 10% over the past month. some investors are betting on a production cut in late september. home building stocks rallied after report showed building sentiment improving. new home sales are current ly a the highest level since february 2008. that's it from cnbc, first in business worldwide. from long island to buffalo, from rochester to the hudson valley,

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a voice was heard. if you build it, he will come. a girl discovered magic. a revolution began. welcome, to the wonders that happen, everyday. welcome, to it all. comcast. he's trying to tell us he cares about the middle class.

give me a break. and to repeat myself, that's such a bunch of malarkey. it makes no sense. none. none, none, none, none. this guy doesn't care about the middle class. and i don't even blame him in a sense because he doesn't understand it. he doesn't have a clue. >> vice president joe biden earlier today in his hometown of scranton, pennsylvania. that was biden's first appearance on the campaign trail with hill in the town where her father is also from. b biden focused on donald trump's temperament and experience saying there's never been a major party nominee less prepared than him. this was a play for blue collar voters. he focused on her experience and loyalty. kristen welker is in scranton covering the clinton campaign for us. in another world that i'm sure

joe biden things about it would be joe biden running in scranton, pennsylvania trying to ca carry the keystone state. how did he do today? >> reporter: look, he delivered a blistering attack against donald trump. there's no doubt about that. you're right, steve this is a role he's very comfortable in being out on the campaign trail pressing the flesh. that is what he did today takinging on donald trump saying he's the most unprepared candidate in u.s. history when it comes to foreign policy and hit him for a couple specific points. number one, saying president obama is the found earp of isis. he said that kind of talk is actually dangerous. he slammed him for praising leaders like putin and saddam hussein, and then he talked in very personal terms about what it was like to work with secretary clinton. take a look at what vice president biden had to say today. >> i've known her for over 30

years. i knew her before she was first lady. when she became first lady, when we served together in the senate during her year as secretary of state once a week we'd have breakfast at my home. i became the obama whisperer. she'd look at me and say, what did he mean by that? >> reporter: now the speech, of course, also aimed at prebutting donald trump's foreign policy speech he delivered today but aimed at rallying the working class, blue collar voters who live here, has a population of 75,000, a lot of white voters who live here. secretary clinton is beating donald trump in the state of pennsylvania but he outpaces her when you look more closely at some of the polls, specifically those who don't have a college education, he outpaces her 50% to 34%. whites who do have a college

degree, 53% to 32%. she's trying to close that gap with him. she thinks biden will help her in neighboring hiohio, an important swing state, steve. >> kristen, thanks for that. let's turn back to our panel now. nick co nick, jamil, elise. he'll flit the voters away from the democrats and carry the state. the bigger one is nowhere near scranton. we put the graphic up there. college educated voters, hillary clinton is running up margins we've never seen. >> well, and you look at educated women, too, and how much of a portion of that hillary clinton is just absolutely sweeping. and if donald trump can't carry any educated women at all, he

has a serious problem on his hands. and so i think that today what biden did effectively was make the case that donald trump is unqualified and he's unstable and that's the message that hillary clinton's campaign has been very consistent with. building against trump, gradually. so he comes out with a big foreign policy speech. no one cares about that. they're focused on the scandal surrounding his campaign. >> the calculation of trump here, you could see evidence in the poll we just put up and i've seen it, too, in the marist poll last week, he has made some gains in a state like voters over what mitt romney did, but it feels like everything he's had to do everything he thought he had to do to win over those voters has cost him two or three times as much in the eastern part of the state. >> he's not considering any other demographics when he does it. it's tailored for the primary. he doesn't seem to be making any adjustment when he comes to the general.

in pennsylvania, you have massive margins in the philadelphia suburbs. that leads to talk of cheating on friday when he had the speech there. i wonder if he talks about cheating in certain areas of pennsylvania and registering people as trump election observers. you're building up a dangerous mindset around the election and it's a loser's mind-set. he should be doing what joe biden did today telling them, hey, not only am i with you, this candidate is with you, but here are some poll tis that will benefit you. they should not be promising the industries that left the steel belt areas are coming back, at least clinton is doing is saying, hey, i stand with you and here's evidence that i'm doing that. >> it's an interesting question for the clinton campaign because we haven't had a nominee in her position in a while now, in a presidential election look iingt

this think in better position than any major party nominee since 199 at this point in the campaign. we've heard so many complaints and criticism about donald trump gets too much television coverage, media exposure, you get the impression the media campaign is happy to see most of the spotlight to donald trump the way this has been going. >> as long as he is the main focus, it helps her, keeps the spotlight off her own problems, her foundation, abc news report from a couple days ago about her donors. and so i think for him the problem is if you look at the swing state polls, he is hemorrhaging republicans, those college educated republicans, the women who are married who are fleeing them and he has to shore them up first. i do think the focus on isis, which is a real concern for security moms, is helpful for him. if he can bring his focus back to that, he has a chance a

little bit. if he doesn't do that he can't win anything. >> "the wall street journal" reporting today the fbi may be close to turning over the notes from the investigation into hillary clinton's private e-mail server that included an interview with hillary clinton. there's still a lot to work out. the state department would have to reach an agreement over what portion could be made public. again, this is a story that's been going on for more than a year. you had the fbi director come out, hillary clinton gave interviews that haven't necessarily gone well. it may be coming back again before the election. >> also i think a lot of folks are tired of and it doesn't speak to their concerns at home domestically or about fears of terrorism. trump has to find a way to make this important. hey, not only does this e-mail

thing make her untrustworthy but unsafe if he can tie it into the isis thing without recording to the third grade insults he no normally does, perhaps he'll have a message. >> when i see the polling on temperament, voters say clinton has the temperament to be president. trump doesn't. i think of the e-mail story. a republican nominee who didn't face that gap might be able to do more with this story than trump has. >> it's been incredible how he has completely failed to exploit just low hanging fruit that he has against hillary clinton. he could be talking about improprieties, instead it's about his campaign manager's ties to ukraine and $12 million or it's about trump encouraging his second amendment supporters to pursue hillary clinton. these are not good storylines and he has a chance to take back

the message but i feel it's the same skrimt of him going back on twitter. >> and that's the question everybody is looking for. a week ago he was in detroit. that was not what we were ta talking about. okay. now another sta, you think he m get traction on. when is the first tweet? >> he went off on a tirade after "the new york times" posted a story about his xin struggles and it was about the media and, look, you can't lose any points with voters if you attack the media. "new york times" is not on the ballot. if you spend all your time talking about the media you can't talk about isis. >> do you read it as is he looking ahead to the possibility of defeat and looking to come up when he talks about voter fraud, we can't lose pennsylvania, i'd be up 20 if it weren't for the

media. >> it's also a great target to really distrust the media. americans in general look down on our profession these days. that's why trump goes after the media but he looks like a loser. he has to stop attacking the media and focus on his campaign and the issues. >> it's a voter intimidation issue. you're looking to gyn up the only way you can possibly with win. you don't have campaign offices in swing states when you need them. you don't have the ground game you need. you don't have the message you need. what are you going to do? >> make sure people are observing. even the rumor will keep people away from the polls. >> the conservative "wall street journal" it republican friendly, writing about donald trump in the situation in an editorial, yes, the media is out to get republicans, but, donald trump is making it easy for anyone who is out to get him.

that's from a generally friendly republican publication. let's take a quick pause. up next, new details on the presidential debates. will organizers be making room for a third podium? stay tuned. when heartburn comes creeping up on you. fight back with relief so smooth and fast. tums smoothies starts dissolving the instant it touches your tongue. and neutralizes stomach acid at the source. tum-tum-tum-tum-tums smoothies, only from tums.

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>> the comedian drew laughs and criticisms for his remarks it at the white house correspondence dinn dinner. they are canceling the nightly show. the last episode will air this thursday. the network cited a lack of fan engagement online as part of the reason for the cancellation. kent alterman telling "the hollywood reporter" unfortunately, it hasn't connected with our audience in ways that we need it to. willmore has hosted the show since january 2015. before that he was on "the daily show." in a statement wilmore thanked the network, his fans and stewart. he said he was saddened and surprised we won't be covering this crazy election or the unblackening, as we coined it. in keeping it 100, i guess i hadn't counted on the unblackening happening to my timeslot as well. we'll be back with the lid after this. the boy in this painting? i dunno...maybe nobody understands him.

well, if he were here, i'd say that being different is what makes him special. just like our discounts -- each one is unique, but together, they help save our customers a lot of money. okay. pop quiz, who's my favorite student? gwen? yeah! it's gwen. yeah, gwen's the best. introduces new, easy-to-swallow tablets. yeah! it's gwen. so now, there are more ways, for more people... to experience... complete protection from frequent heartburn. nexium 24hr. the easy-to-swallow tablet is here. i'm hillary clinton, and i approve this message. michael hayden: if he governs consistent with some of the things he said as a candidate, i would be very frightened. gillian turner: he's been talking about the option of using a nuclear weapon against our western european allies. max boot: this is not somebody who should be handed the nuclear codes. charles krauthammer: you have to ask yourself, do i want a person of that temperament controlling the nuclear codes? and as of now, i'd have to say no.

[bill o'reilly sighs] i know some of you may have friends up here in northeastern

pennsylvania who are thinking about voting for trump. you know, i know, i know, friends should not let friends vote for trump. >> more from hillary clinton there on the campaign trail in scranton, pennsylvania. she was joined by joe biden this afternoon, bringing some electricity to the electric city. at least that was the idea. time for "the lid." the panel is here, nick, jameel, elise. let me get to interesting news here. we teased this before the break. been a lot of discussion with donald trump's negatives through the roof, hillary clinton's way up there as well. is there room for a third party candidate this year. the question has been centered around gary johnson, the libertarian candidate. can he get on the stage in the debates. you need 15% in a selection of polls in september. so today the debate commission released the five polls they are going to use to determine eligibility. look at this. these are the five. these are their most recent numbers, you see johnson anywhere between 8% and 12% in

the five polls. it's not the numbers right now you are seeing that will matter. it's these five polls when they take the temperature in early and mid-september. how is gary johnson doing then. right now, between 8% and 12%. if he can get to 15% or for that matter if jill stein you see on the right, if she could ever get to 15%, a third podium would be placed on that stage. we have not had a third party candidate in a general election debate since ross perot in 1992. anyone here think we will see that? >> i think it's possible. look, i think what's interesting here is the conservative voters, the hard right voters, are with trump. so the people who are drifting away are the moderates and center right people and the economic libertarians. bingo, right there for johnson and weld to come in and be like a tent pole for these people who can vote for hillary clinton, no way, but don't want to vote for trump and just want to vote for somebody. he could be the guy for them. >> i heard the argument. i might have made the argument once or twice that libertarian

ticket might have more traction if it was reversed. if bill weld was the presidential candidate, gary johnson was the vice presidential candidate. weld has a little more tv polish, might be a more experienced candidate in sort of the tv world we live in. i also heard the craziest thing, the election i heard the other day out in utah, we had crazy polls coming in from utah. gary johnson is at 16% right there. the polls said 14% for other. we said who could that be. we called up the pollster and asked. he said people volunteering the name of mitt romney as a write-in candidate. right now, 14% of the voters in utah would write in romney. then we looked even closer. in vermont, you got more than 10% right now who say they would write in bernie sanders. >> wow. what an election. still it's almost september and people are still debating who they want to vote for as if you do not have two firm major party

candidates. they are just so incredibly dissatisfied this year. if gary johnson could get onstage i really think he could make -- have a much bigger impact in this election. people just got to know him, got to -- >> it would be the first time most voters have ever seen or heard of him. >> not only does he have some interesting ideas but i think trump would welcome him. he would get to talk less and b, he would have another person on that stage who doesn't want hillary clinton to be president. when you have somebody to articulate that argument maybe better than he can, i think it would be a good thing for him. >> that gets to the other question. you look at the poll numbers donald trump is up against right now. he was sending some signals a couple weeks ago he maybe, maybe wouldn't be interested in debating, he might have reservations about it. we saw him skip the debate in the primaries in iowa. it looks like there's no way donald trump is going to be able to skip these debates right now. he'll have to do them. he will have to have an incredible performance if it would turn the polls around. does anybody think he's capable of that?

>> if it's going to happen, the debates could be crazy. he has been powerful in debates. he's overpowered people. i do think that hillary clinton in her sardonic kind of grandma way is very effective when there's an overbearing guy onstage with her. she could dispatch him very quickly if it goes wrong for him. on the other hand, i watched him take out candidate after candidate in the primary. he just rolled over them and had maybe like two missteps in the whole thing so i don't know. >> you're right. he did it by bullying other candidates. i don't think he can get away with that with hillary clinton. she's going to be so incredibly well prepared. she's going to have her policies, know everything right and left and center, and she's going to be able to throw out some really good attacks because you are not telling me the clinton campaign is not message testing what pithy lines she will throw out and dispatch. she is putting in the work. >> she's a very prepared and skilled debater. she's done very well in these formats. >> yeah, there's no chance frankly that he's going to be

able to beat her on the merits, on preparation and also with regard to message. what he's got to do is figure out what stunt he will pull. i think frankly, we have seen the rick lazio stunt. i don't know if he's going to try to do something quite that foolish but he has to do something that will capture the attention of the media he so despises. >> he can't concentrate. he can't read a book, he can't study for 30 minutes. how is he going to be able to prepare for debates? he's not going to. >> it would be a lot of speculation about what he might have up his sleeve but that will be something, safe to say, we will all be watching if and when that debate day does arrive. thank you all. more after this. ing like one. real is making new friends. amazing is getting this close. real is an anil rescue. amazing is over twenty-seven thousand of them.

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♪ everything is awesome xfinity. the future of awesome. that's all for tonight. we'll be back tomorrow with more "mtp daily." have a good night. i'm donny deutch. >> i'm mark halperin. "with all due respect" to everybody else, biden is back, baby. roll tape. >> no one ever doubts i mean what i say. the problem is i sometimes say all that i mean. i mean this sincerely. i mean this sincerely. this is not hyperbole. >> i really mean this. >> no, i really mean it. no i really mean it. all kidding aside, i really mean this. maybe it's just me. >> i give you my word as a biden, my word as a biden. >> let's state the obvious. >> don't cheer. just listen. >> he married up. sorry, guys. it's kind of a family thing. i became the obama whisperer. >>s