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first of all let me say to everybody very humble. >> this guy's shame has no limits. he's gone so far to ask putin and russia to conduct cyber attacks against the united states of america. he's even showered praise on saddam hussein, one of the vilest dictators of 20th century. he would have loved stalin. he would have loved stalin. i was proud my son bo served for a year in iraq, came back a highly decorated soldier. i must tell you -- i must tell you that donald trump as president i would have thrown my body in front of him. no, i really mean it. to keep him from going if the

judgment was based on trump's decision. if my son were still in iraq, and i say to all those that are there, the threat to their life has gone up a couple clicks. it's gone up a couple clicks. >> that's powerful stuff. vice president joe biden talking yesterday in scranton. mark, a heck of a speech. a tour deforce by the vice president. >> first time he campaign in scranton where he's just got a special feeling for the people. it was emotional and funny and fun and she clearly loved being with him. another pairing that brings out the best in her. i think you'll see a lot more of it. >> donny deutsch, you've been a new yorker your whole life. i'm one of these guys that will -- in fact we were having the conversation yesterday. people talk about new york's turnaround, they talk about giuliani. i'm sorry, you can love giuliani

or hate giuliani but what he did to the city was pretty damn extraordinary. everybody can make it, well, it was this, it was that. it was giuliani and leaders around giuliani but what is he willing to do in the name of donald trump to say we hadn't suffered a terror attack before barack obama. is that what it was? before the last eight years. here is a bite. everybody is twisting in the wind for donald trump. this sticks with them. play the clip. >> mike's background is exactly a compliment to donald trump will he's a member of foreign affairs and judiciary committee. he's a member -- during the time of september 11th when we went through the worst foreign attack in our history since the war of

1812. by the way, under those eight years before obama came along, we didn't have any successful radical terrorist attack in the united states. they all started when clinton and obama got into office. >> wait. i'm confused. we've got to get a calendar. i thought september 11th happened -- >> it was. >> first of all, everybody is twisting in the wind. you're an expert on brands. what does it do for the branding of marco rubio when he says donald trump is a con man but i support the con man. paul ryan, donald trump is a racist but i support racists. this guy is going to march off the stage and into their wonderful life. >> it makes them weak. i don't understand, it's such a simple move to say, i've come this far but i can't. the they think about trump

that's interesting, everybody advertising why and how, it's baked in at this point, nothing is changing. i think what's more interesting is what will happen over the next 80 days. one of three things is going to happen. either he's going to do a george mcgovern and lose an electoral landslide. knowing that man, i can't see him letting it get to that point. b, something horrific happens outse this country, whether it's russian e-mails or god forbid a terrorist attack that starts to push in his direction, which is even more frightening, tom friedman wrote a column about that. or three, something different happens than we've ever seen before. i don't think we get to a point, we were arguing about this yesterday, where this guy is going to go through the next 85 days as a loser. i think somehow, some way he's not going to get up every morning and continue to do it. this is not the typical candidate. this is a 70-year-old billionaire who did this as a lark. he did not plan on it happening

this way. >> by the way, he didn't expect to win. >> we're going to see history. it's not going to be we're going to go this way. on election night everybody is going to be sitting on this podium saying donald trump loses another state. something is going to happen before that. whether it's him throwing down the mic and leaving, something we haven't thought through. >> let's bring in political commentator for abc news and npr cokie roberts. we don't know exactly what's going to happen with donald trump and i have a feeling donald trump doesn't know whes going to happen to donald trump. a lot of republicans saying he's a con man but they are supporting him. he's a racist but they are supporting him. he exits the stage, what is the lasting impact on paul ryan and marco rubio and rudy giuliani and republican party. >> they are morally tainted. there's no question about that. you can't say he's a racist and what he said was textbook racism but i support him because he's the nominee of my party.

i disagree that he's going to disappear from the stage. i think everybody is writing him off way too fast as president obama said yesterday. we don't know what's doing to happen in the next 90 days. we don't know whether hillary clinton could have some huge mistake or some horrible revelation, any of those things. i would not say donald trump is a goner by any means whatsoever. >> what about the republican party. >> the republican party has a big problem, joe. you know this party well. it is definitely put it's self in a position where it's one thing to say, okay, our guy can't win. bob dole can't win so we're going to support the house and san mateo candidates and do that. george mcgovern -- the last time i ever saw my father, infecti f

he was majority leader and they were raising money because they knew mcgovern was going to lose. he came to california where i was living and i saw him then. the fact is that's one approach. the approach of saying we're still for him because he's the nominee, it just puts them in a position i don't think they can defend. >> cokie, obviously you grew up in politics around your mom and dad, have you ever seen anything like this. >> no. no. >> where you have a candidate so morally tainted as a candidate, so challenged that people are calling him a racist and calling him a con man, at the same time saying we support him. >> nobody has ever seen anything like this. not only did i grow up in politics, i grew up in the jim crow south. we spent the last 50 years trying to bring people together instead of push people apart.

so that becomes a terrible stain on the country. even when we had candidates like david duke come up, which he's doing again in my home state, people understood they couldn't support him. in fact he was running against edwards who was on his way to jail and all the bumper stickers said vote for the crook. it's important. this business of sort of saying, well, all those ter erible thin he says don't matter, that is really unacceptable. >> mark, i think what donnie said is right. there's going to be something. this is not going to go, play it's self out for 85 days, whatever it is. and cokie is right, with the clintons involved nothing will change. nothing ever happens in a linear

mom. there's an intervening moment. trump's inability to perform consistently, poll numbers, those are daunting to come back against. going to test him and see whether there's more to him than we've seen so far. >> let's look at the poll numbers. >> a new poll released this morning shows hillary clinton with a nine-point lead nationally. the latest nbc news survey monkey online poll finds clinton leading trump 50-41. when the field is expanded to libertarian and green party candidates clinton's lead shrinks by 3 points, 43-37. 42% said clinton had the personality and temperament to serve. 20% said she shares their values and 11% said she was honest and trustworthy. just 17% found donald trump had the personality and temperament to serve. 23% said he shares their values and 16% say he was honest and trustworthy. meanwhile hillary clinton's main super pac is putting a temporary hold on television ads in three

battleground states. according to bloomberg priorities suspending colorado, pennsylvania and virginia until the end of september. the news comes amid clinton's strong showing in the latest wave of spring state polling, up 14 in colorado, 11 in pennsylvania and 13 in virginia. >> steve kornacki, that's pretty remarkable in mid august that a candidate is already starting to take ads off the air because she's do so well. also i'm sure you saw the latest projections from the cook political report and electoral map. you look at those states, i'm having a hard time finding a state they handed to hillary clinton for 270 electoral vote win that i would take off the map for her, or that's even in play right now. >> if you took all the states broadly defined we think of battleground states, potentially competitive either way and said i'm only going to award hillary clinton states where she's ahead 10 points in the polls, double

digit leads. if you only did that and left everything else as a toss-up she's at 273. we're in a situation where donald trump's path right now is theoretically. his first state, not turning blue states to red states, it's about states where hillary clinton is blowing him out, in states where he's at least within striking distance. that's how far in the hole he is. >> she's over 270 electoral votes if you just look at double digits. >> new hampshire, pennsylvania, wisconsin, michigan, virginia, colorado. if you give her those right now and say at this point she's blowing him out right there, that puts her at 273. >> sam stein, not bad. >> new york city it's not bad. >> not bad math for her. >> she sits in a good position. "washington post" poll came out showing her up 14 percentage points in virginia. >> wow. >> so she's in the driver's seat here. one thing i've noticed about these polls, while she is doing

better, a lot of the margin is owed to the fact trump has lost considerable ground with republican voters. perhaps cokie can weigh in on this. to what extent does he have to -- to what extent does he have to consolidate his base and continue to do so versus try to completely upend all the dynamics of the race and maybe take a moonshot for a national victory here. >> that's exactly right. she's getting about 90 to 92% of the democratic vote and he's getting in the low 70s of the republican vote. and so that sort of explains to some degree why he keeps doubling down on talking points republican voters like, like attacking the media, so he can get that base energized and excited. but it hasn't gotten him -- first of all, hasn't gotten him the base. second, certainly hasn't gotten him at the moment beyond the

base. >> how long have you known donald? >> twenty some years. >> i've known him for over a decade. why don't you try answering this question because i have everybody asking me the question, what's going on in his mind? what's he doing? i know he wasn't planning on being here. but he had a shot. listening to cokie and mark, he may still have a shot to be president of the united states. but he's not behaving like a man who rationally is moving in a direction to get elected president of the united states. >> first cokie and mark, the number when you say only 17% of people think he has the temperament, which means thinks he's capable of doing the job. that's a huge number. we know why that is and that's baked in and not changing. this is a guy, in case anybody thinks he's going to change, anybody who has been married for 20 years turn to your husband or wife and wait for change and we know that's not happening. i think this guy has lived everything in life except being

a loser. this is what he's going through now. he's getting up in the morning -- >> he was bankrupt. >> you know what bankrupt means? some of his enterprises were bankrupt. you throw the keys at the bank, here, take the keys back. he was never truly bankrupt. i believe right now he's tired, he's pissed. i think eventually and i said this before the way out -- by the way, the reason he's not going away regardless of what happens whether he leaves the election, loses the election, there's going to be a trump party coming out of this, trump from here on in is the third party in this country, whether he forms a party or not, he's got 20, 30, 40 million -- >> you agree with that, cokie? >> yes. that's what we saw at the quote, unquote, republican convention. it was a trump convention. there was nothing republican about it. the stars were members of his

family. it was just all about him and the people who support him. that gets to your earlier questions about what about the republican party. the republican party has got to regroup and figure it's self out. not only have they found themselves in an untenable position vis-a-vis him, but they also are back in that awful place where they really only have appeal to white voters. they can't do that in modern america and expect to win. >> can i just say one thing on this, what's going on in the republican party. it's true trump is running -- he has less support among republicans than clinton has among democrats. it's a real group of republicans we're talking about. these tend to be college educated suburbanite white collar professionals. look around suburbs of any major area, that is key for republicans. what trump has blue-collar white base of the republican party. he's lost the suburban base.

that's what he lost. that's why doubling down on this rhetoric like we saw yesterday that's the rhetoric that appeals to blue-collar base. that's the rhetoric that turned off suburbanites. >> mark. >> having become the republican nominee, who or what do you think he feels an obligation to to do well besides himself? >> nobody. >> he knows that. that's not even a question. i think what this country -- >> by the way, i've said that to republicans for a long time. he doesn't care about the republican party, he's a democrat. >> what about his donors. >> are you kidding me? come on. this is a guy -- let's understand this guy has lived his life a certain way. he's not changing. i think what this country has to come to grips with is we are going to be a three-party system going forward. it's march, let's say hillary clinton is president. let's say something happens in this country, whether there's an attack or something happens economically and they are going to go to hillary clinton and cameras are going to then go to donald trump.

i don't care who the up and coming is, paul ryan, that's media reality. >> it depends sam stein if he was blown out like goldwater was or worse, politics is an ugly game. if you lose that badly, you're just a loser. >> true. >> and they shove you off the stage and tell you to go away. we do na in the united states with our -- >> true, except for this part, which is if he's proven to be successful at one part of the campaign, it's at getting and manipulating the media. i don't think that goes away even if he suffers -- >> yeah, it does, because he's relevant. the media will follow him when he's relevant. you can only set your hair on fire so many times. >> the big question joe -- >> i have a question. donnie, i've heard a lot more chatter about the fact he doesn't actually want to win at this point. i'm curious.

second, what would you put the probability at this juncture of finishing the race instead of dropping out. >> i've said this all along and asked him on this show. i know you want to win, do you want the job? i don't think he wants the job. >> by the way, people close to him says he doesn't want the job. >> by the way, if you have that job you have to sit in a meeting and pay attention for two hours. he's the type of guy, he runs, he guns, he's doing what he wants to do, his version of president, giving speeches. he doesn't want this. i believe he wants a certain way out. to your point if there's a moment in time he can stand up and say for the good of the country i'm doing this and i'm going to be this voice. there's new math. he's not going down a loser. he doesn't want this job. >> let's go to cokie roberts who was interrupted. >> sorry, cokie. >> all right, sam. >> sam stein. >> i wanted to know that answer, too. but look, there's a bigger problem here, which is that all this talk about a rigged

election. >> right. >> and cheating and all of that, even if he exits the stage, he's leaving behind a lot of people who are going to then think that whomever is president is an illegitimate presidency. we've already had a couple of presidents where that's been a problem. the democrats accept bush because of the supreme court. a lot of republicans and others didn't accept obama with the whole birther thing. and now we have another president where we don't go with the tried and wonderful american tradition of accepting the winner when you're the loser, that is a real problem for this country. he's creating it. >> and do donnie's point, donald trump loved nothing more than just talking. you called donald up and he would tell you all the great poll nulls. he was on a constant loop.

all the numbers are bad. sam said he woke up this morning to "washington post" virginia poll that has him losing 52-38%. >> how quickly the narrative flips then. it's not that the polls are right, it's that the media is wrong and polls are wrong and everything is rigged going back to what cokie said and going back to the question of whether or not he wants it. come back to the story out of kasich's camp whether or not it's true, who knows, about donald trump's son approaching them saying that kasich would run foreign and domestic policy. when asked what donald trump would be doing, he'd be making america great. >> all right. thank you so much. everybody else stick around. still ahead on "morning joe," hillary clinton has practically put down stakes in pennsylvania as donald trump heads to wisconsin. another state he's down double digits. andrea mitchell and hallie jackson join us. tomorrow libertarian candidate for president former governor

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>> i was an opponent of the iraq war from the beginning. >> are you for invading iraq? >> i guess so. i wish the first time it was done correctly. >> i have been just as clear saying what a catastrophic mistake hillary clinton and president obama made with the reckless way in which they pulled out. how do they get out? they get out. declare victory and leave. hillary clinton and barack obama should have never attempted to build a democracy in libya. >> gaddafi in libya is killing thousands of people. nobody knows how bad it is. we should go in. we should stop this guy, which would be very easy and very quick. ultimately the people will appreciate it. before the obama/clinton

administration took over, egypt was ruled by a secular president and an ally of the united states. even if you take a look at egypt i'm not blaming anything or anybody for egypt, although i would like to know how is a man worth $70 billion that's head of the country. it's a good thing they got him out. >> good thing they got him out. my head hurts. donnie, how do you clean that up? everybody thinks his office is -- it's a mom and pop, six or seven creeky offices up there. it's not the campus of google, if you will, when you go up there. >> he keeps things as they were. i mean -- >> pictures are tilted on the wall for new york magazine.

>> you know what, there is a rhyme and a rhythm to it all. there is a reason he doesn't change a lot of those pictures in there. he's got 1,000 "time" magazine covers. >> i don't think he has the last one up there. >> it's part of the reason why he thinks he can run a presidential campaign as a mom and pop and it's worked for him. >> just him. >> and the kids. >> just like the presidential campaign. >> let's go to philadelphia chief foreign correspondent and host of andrea mitchell reports andrea mitchell and nbc news correspondent hallie jackson. andrea, just from the clip we bumped in with, the clinton campaign has three months of commercials to run. >> it's remarkable. they are not overconfident, though. i've got to tell you they are working as though this were a really tight race. nbc news survey monkey online poll shows 9 point national lead for hillary clinton. she's here in philadelphia

precisely because she needs to run up the vote really, really to huge margins out of philadelphia. the numbers there in the polling from the minority vote in philadelphia but she's got to offset his strength elsewhere in the state. having been in scranton yesterday and talking to people from state college and other places in central part of pennsylvania, this critical battleground state, even though she's ahead double digits in some polls, 11 points in our latest poll in pennsylvania, there is such strength for donald trump in the predominantly white working class sections of the state that she does need a big vote in philadelphia and suburbs, republican suburbs trending heavily towards her to offset strength elsewhere. there's a hidden trump vote in pennsylvania. this is such a critical state. if he does not win pennsylvania and ohio, there's almost no path if he doesn't really break ground in the rust belt.

>> yeah. >> no matter what he does in florida and other places, you know the battleground map as well as i do, she has big advantages. they are not sitting on their lead. they really need to get out the vote here. they are very concerned about what he said in pennsylvania last week where he said if he loses here, even though he was then behind by 11 points, if he loses here, they have cheated and stolen it. so they are worried about voter intimidation in philadelphia. >> philadelphia, i'd be shocked if he didn't get out with 600,000 plus votes -- if hillary clinton didn't get out of there with 600,000 plus vote advantage. the suburbs are breaking her way. western pennsylvania is not going trump's way, the way they would hope it would. i don't know. hallie jackson there doesn't seem to be enough votes for donald trump even if there's a hidden vote in pennsylvania. you can say the same thing about wisconsin where right now he's getting pounded in the polls there. >> it's a state where his

campaign, donald trump himself, has talked about wanting to do well here, wanting to make sure but it's a very difficult state for him. you look at what happens in the primaries. this was not a place where donald trump was successful, not necessarily friendly territory for him when you look at conservatives who live here. it's a question mark how he picks up places like indiana, michigan, indiana, obviously he'll do well there because of mike pence. there's a question about what his path looks like because of his tremp ramt. his foreign policy adviser this morning said something remarkable, he operates almost like a president now, calling it remarkable he's actually listening to his advisers and trying to do something that appears to some more presidential. again, it's a little bit of deja vu. here we are on tuesday morning looking back at donald trump's very difficult last week, as we have been in this position before, and his own folks are saying, listen, he's almost

there. we are 85 days to the election and trump has said he's not going to change who he is and i don't expect that he will. so we look ahead to what happens over the next 85 days and what's happening today in milwaukee. what's interesting to me, guys, when he comes to local areas, the backdrop of what has happened last three or four nights police shooting is inadmissible. he doesn't come and talk about local issues. i'm thinking not just milwaukee but his team in florida where he did not address zika in a meaningful way, went to colorado, does not address issues, it's a question whether or not he'll engage in local issues that are important to people here in wisconsin. >> you look at the map, kornacki, we're in pennsylvania and wisconsin, two states that are beyond donald trump's reach now. where does he go to get to 270? >> pennsylvania was supposed to be the key for this for donald trump. if you look in the state here is

what's happening. southwest pennsylvania, johnstown, these are the kind of voters trump is after. he is overperforming what mitt romney did, so there's a little bit of improvement here is the problem. the suburbs of philadelphia, in 2012 obama won them by nine points. all polling that's come out sints quings in those same suburbs obama won by nine four years ago trump is trailing between 26 and 40 points. a huge population and that kind of shift you can't compete. >> i grew up in those suburbs. republican women and more moderate i'd call them mitt romney republican men they sent members, republican members to the house from our district for a while. they are not donald trump supporters now. >> they are not. we always hear, cokie roberts about pennsylvania voters in central pennsylvania but you look at philly suburbs where elections are won and lost in that state. this is what rnc worried about for months. they loathe donald trump but if

donald trump wins pat toomey can win. if he loses in the suburbs, pat toomey is going down. >> that's right. ku rep you can replicate that in ohio, around the country. that does become a huge problem for them. andrea is making a good point, there probably is a hidden trump vote not showing up in the polls. we don't know but that's possible. the other thing is that it's very, very wise for hillary clinton to spend her money and her resources on getting out the vote, because the fact is that in places like florida, north carolina, pennsylvania suburbs and philadelphia city, that's the key. and you know, a lot of people who hallie grew up with are likely -- kasie grew up with are likely to say, i don't care, i'm staying home. i hate this election. so getting those people out is

going to be very important. >> all right. andrea mitchell, hallie jackson, thank you very much. wait. actually andrea wants to talk and andrea trumps you, donny. we've got to go to break so you sit here and we'll hear more from you in the future. let's go to andrea. andrea. >> i quickly wanted to say trump has this strong support in scranton where i was yesterday among white men. when i talk to bob casey, the senator there, he said, look, he lost men, male vote even in winning his election. the difference is in those suburbs kasie was talking about. he won the suburbs around philadelphia, casey did by 12 or 13 points. right now she's ahead by 27 points. that's the difference in pennsylvania if she can get that vote out. >> nbc survey monkey, we've got to get that survey monkey on here. we've never had him on. >> okay.

you wanted to interrupt andrea for that? >> what about you, donny. >> cokie, i'm sorry, we thought we could get you off the air without donny showing how low his political iq is. cokie roberts, we love having you. thank you so much for being here. >> good to be with you. >> all right. coming up, is there already a so-called butterfly effect from hillary clinton's e-mail case? we'll explain that straight ahead. intriguing. >> i need to learn more. i asked my dentist if an electric toothbrush was

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welcome back to "morning joe." kasie, there were many people saying how prosecutors treated hillary clinton would have an impact with other people and classified information. what's happening? >> the butterfly effect. >> steve kornacki. >> science class or -- >> that was good. >> "politico" reports a navy sailor convicted of unlawful retention is going to seek le leniency. petty officer first class 29 father of four and facing up to 6 1/2 years in prison for keeping photos of a submarines

propulsion system that he knew to be classified. in a legal filing cited by "politico" his lawyer contains fbi recently recommended clinton not be brought up on any charges as she lacked, quote, intent, writing that the sailor possessed six photographs classified as confidential/restricted far less than clinton's 110 e-mails. furthermore they state that the crime he pleaded guilty to doesn't require intent, it only required that he had unauthorized possession of the photographs. wherever, they conclude it would be unjust and unfair for the sailor to receive any sentence other than probation for crime those more powerful than him will likely avoid making the argument hillary clinton is getting off because of her position. meanwhile wikileaks, julian assange said will ask for an end

to the investigation into their organization for information, quote, in light of the new clinton president. does hillary clinton get julian assange off? >> that's the question. mark halperin we had people predicting when this was going down every defense attorney would use the clinton defense. >> a lower standard. >> what the fbi director did was extraordinary. he claimed he wanted to be open. he's not answered questions from the media about what he did. he answered questions from congress. now up to federal judges and prosecutors to decide whether precedents were set in this case. i think there will be at least one judge who goes hard after this precedent and basically says if hillary clinton can get off, other people can get off. >> donny, do you agree with that? >> i believe so. >> you can't have a clinton standard and everybody. >> the idea they hold themselves

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we're going to win the presidency and bring real change and leadership back to washington. >> she's a natural leader, a good organizer and the best darn change maker i ever met in my entire life. >> okay. a new poll out from the "washington post" in virginia shows hillary clinton is up, boy, 8%. the d.c. suburbs her margin is 45%. 45%. wow. with us now from washington senior political columnist from the washington examiner and visiting fellow at the american enterprise institute kim carney.

also washington examiner columnist and co-founder echelon insights. teamed up with the examiner, survey of d.c. insiders who believe in part they will say t democratic and one of the main reasons is they expect hillary clinton to maintain the status quo. tell us what you learned from the survey. >> yeah. we learned that folks who are employed, folks who meet the criteria as those who sort of live and work around politics, what do they think changed as a result of this election. we find folks prefer hillary clinton by a huge margin and 62% think as a result of bernie sanders and donald trump, it doesn't matter because very little will change in washington

even though these outsiders have been very successful this time around. >> it seems they will talk about this survey and each like it for their own reasons! donald trump loves running against washington d.c. they don't think things will change very much and liberals feel satisfied with her candidate were more likely to say it won't change. we found 53% generally thought it was good for the country. for instance, cnbc's most recent poll shows that there's a lot more americans who thought trade was hurting the country than who thought trade was helping the country. so washington is much more pro trade. trump can say they aren't being outsourced to mexico. that's exactly his line there. >> i was look at this virginia

poll you put up a few seconds ago. we were talking about where hillary clinton has been drawing her strength. the movement among white college graduates in this thing, it is amazing. we talked about virginia becoming two states. it has like been doubled in the course of the last few weeks it looks like. these numbers are staggering. >> this is the worst poll he has had. virginia is the classic state and you look at where he is doing well and where he is doing poorly. it is extraordinary as a snapshot, you can't look at this and not see implications not just for trump but for the republican party. >> is carolina on the list of states that start to go? you have the research triangle

competing. >> and increasingly diverse. kbl a >> and there we have the latest north carolina poll that has hillary clinton up 9 percentage points. do you agree the virginia poll is absolutely devastating? >> yeah. you have a lot of -- well, trump is trying to run up the numbers but if he is losing voters then a lot of these swing states go from purple to blue or go from blue to dark blue. it makes it hard for donald trump. what is also interesting is that as a result of these insurgent candidates in the primaries, do any of these folks sort of feel maybe i don't understand what's going on out in america and do i need to reflect on what i missed

and they said i feel like i understand america just fine, about the same as i did before. only 29% say this has been a wake up call. i feel more out of touch with the country than i did before this primary happened. >> and the numbers will keep going that direction. you have run campaigns. you have gotten up in the morning and you know a lot of people do where they are about to go spend the next 14 hours. what does it feel like? talk about the psychology, what it's like. it's so grueling when you're in a dead heat. now you get out of bed, talk to me what happens in a campaign. >> you know, i don't know. i can tell you, i always ran like i was 20 points behind. i would wake up earlier and i would make sure i go to bed

later and make sure i worked harder than all of my opponents and i would literally make sure i did that and i would focus on building coalitions. donald trump keeps speaking to theame crowd. when i campaigned nobody knew who i was. i went around and i went around and i got pop lists first. >> but that was your style -- >> no. no. no. what i'm talking about is it doesn't matter whether you're donald trump and you're down 14 point s in virginia or if you'r down in an alabama football game. you go one play at a time. don't look up at the score board. >> but donald trump does look at the score board. >> and there enlies the problem.

i'm going to do this. you know, the last coalition i built was the business community. they thought i was crazy because i did what i did. you said this is what i'm going to do. you build your coalitions. donald trump is not to talk to four groups at one time. he is just talking to the same group over and over and over again and what we are seeing is he is not only, you know, pushing away college educated republicans but even his core reporters are saying wait a second, this guy doesn't have a plan to win. >> yeah. i would go out to places, suburbs of milwaukee. they would say i like him and i'm waiting for him to grow up.

i even found iowa and wisconsin voters and illinois voters saying i'm voting for trump but i'm waiting for him to pivot. when she not doing it he is turning them off. think the numbers show he has zero in-roads into that sort of college educated white republican vote that is always in places like virginia and ohio and north carolina and florida. and so it's really -- the numbers aren't there for him this morning at this point. >> and find any suburban area around the country where you have this poll of numbers.

trump was only ahead by 5 in kansas. a quarter is right outside kansas city. you can go into the most red states, if you have areas like that this is where trump is hemorrhaging votes right now. >> do you know who did really well? marco rubio. it shows you how many of that type go out and vote. right now nobody seems able to do it. thank you so much for being with us again. tim, we greatly appreciate it. we are back in a moment. people who gave me options. kept me on track. and through it all, my retirement never got left behind. so today, i'm prepared for anything we may want tomorrow to be. every someday needs a plan.

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those that are preaching hate will be asked to return home immediately. if they don't do it we will return them home. >> he has no idea what he is talking about even confronted with the facts he doesn't want to learn them. he reveals a profound misunderstanding. what's at stake? good morning. it is tuesday, august 16th. where is she this morning? >> monaco. >> monaco. >> she needs a new pair of something, shoes. >> trucks. >> she still hasn't got to truck. >> what a speech yesterday, donald trump. did you watch that?

>> no. >> today we have mark halperin and richard haas. we have rihanna and kasie hunt and senior political editor and white house correspondent for the huffington post, sam stein. there is so much to talk about this morning. jum annie forgot about a tuesday morning. forgot about it tuesday morning in 2001. but then the speech, what do you think of the trump speech? >> two parts or three parts. one is the history or the analysis which is selective on who we pin the responsibility

on. shouldn't say anything about the previous administration really and really more left it off the hook. it is because of the deep flaws. secondly, introduced -- >> we are at the top of the show. either i like it or i don't like it. make it brief. >> when it came to what to do there was a pretty empty cupboard. >> all right. new polls show hillary clinton with a 9 point lead over donald trump. it show s her leading 50-41. 42% said clinton had the

temperament to serve and 11% said she was honest and trustworthy. 17% said trump had 23 to serve and 23% said he shares their values. hillary clinton's main super pack is putting a temporary hold on television ads in three battleground states. they are suspending advertising in colorado, pennsylvania and virginia until the end of september. it comes amid her stroll polling up 14 in colorado, 13 in virginia. >> it is huge news. >> it is stunning. when we learned about this yesterday i couldn't believe it. to take tv ads off the air and the first three week of september and suggested the

degree of confidence. could he win without hethese the states? yes but very difficult. >> he doesn't have field operations out there. he doesn't have tv ads. why spend the money where you're up by 14? >> i think the question is whether or not the earned media is functionally matching that tv money. i think it has been up and down and up and down particularly in colorado. one of the things we have been looking for is if we take our tv down off the air is trump still matching us or are they going to start to lose ground. >> but it's not helping him. it helped him in the primary. it is for the same reasons we were saying six months ago it would help him in the primary. >> and i think that's why. if in fact his earned media

advantage has flipped and become a disadvantage they can afford to do this. they already started talking about states like georgia and arizona as places they might be able to expand into. do they have the opportunity to go on offense or go on defense? >> i think they will go on offense. they were going state by state in the electoral college. hillary had 272 electoral votes based on their protection. i couldn't find a single one where i thought they may have that one wrong. donald is going to win that one. no. it looks if you believe that she has 272 looked down as of now. >> and the college rankings show hillary clinton already projected over 270 vote threshold needed to win. clinton is estimated to have 272

to trump's 290. the republican nominee could sweep all of the electoral votes and still come up short. >> look at that map and somebody tell me, what's the state that trump wins, that's blue or shaded blue? >> it starts with ohio and florida. he has got to come back in those states. >> no. no. no. he could win florida, georgia, ohio, iowa, nevada. >> that's what i'm saying. it starts with florida. >> and still lose. what blue state does he have? virginia he is down double dimgts, new hampshire he is down double duigits there. >> and trump right now because of his problem with certain

voter groups doesn't have an obvious. he got pretty good coverage for his speech under the circumstances but is unforgiving. if you're down this much in national polls, if it shows you down it is very difficult to come back. >> and so he had a day where he didn't set himself on fire. what happens today? what happens tomorrow? we are getting to a point now where he has gone through this routine so much that it's almost baked into the cake. so there is no great comeback for donald trump. >> it's not as if he doesn't know vulnerabilities. it is kind of an unconventional candidate. can he go after his opponent the way any other candidate would? >> how many days has it been since hillary clinton held a press conference? >> it doesn't matter. >> it did you want matter.

>> and he'll give a speech and he'll go out and step all over it. >> the bar is so low. >> right. and every time that happens the next day he goes out and talks about second amendment solutions or goes after gold star brothers. again, at this point, just like in the fall, i was trying to figure out how a republican could beat donald trump. we are at a point now where i'm trying to figure out, what's trump'sba trump's comeback. >> i think you speak for many republicans. richard is right that, you know, she did that interview with fox news. it was one of the last time we saw her sit. she made a mistake talking about her e-mails. will is a reason she hasn't had

a press conference since december of last year heading into the iowa caucuses. they know it is a vulnerability for her. i think republicans would say also to your point that there's so much for donald trump to work with hillary clinton. so much. he is for whatever reason not doing it. >> but he gives hillary clinton so much more. there is a very giving relationship. >> i heard sam stein cough. >> a tail tail sign. >> we forget you were there. >> yeah, i guess the biggest problem for donald trump is that at this point everybody has seen the routine. it is baked into the cake. what is he going to do in the next couple of months? you know, you're always looking at campaigns, what's the dynamic

that changes the race? i really don't see it. hillary is not going to dissolve at the debate. what's the way forward to get beyond that blue wall that is now at 272 electoral votes? >> it suggests trump cannot afford to skip the debates. he is upset about how the hosts might work out. he can't afford at this juncture to skip any big event. he has to hope for some sort of monumental victory. no one really expects that. hillary clinton is very prepared. no one would expect her to stumble. it's tough to see that perhaps there is something from the fbi notes from the clinton interview. perhaps there is news from the

obamacare, rates that come out then, he has to flip so many states. we talked about priorities pulling out. if they were pulled out of new hampshire she now, those are states. if she has all of those states she wins. it says a lot about a current state of affairs. >> he is clearly behind. debates are obviously important. if he starts to talk simply about changing washington with some discipline and he needs hillary clinton to make mistakes. he needs a new clinton controversy or to make a series of mistakes. >> why doesn't he run any ads? he is sitting on millions and millions of cash on hand. he raised apparently 80 million in june. where are the ads? >> launching ads is probably not the smartest thing. >> how about making

reservations? >> they may look back and say it was a mistake. >> what about micro targeting? >> they are never going build an operation like hillary clinton. >> they don't even have state directors. >> they have one -- >> no. >> they have one office in florida. mitt romney had almost two dozen offices in florida. >> we called up a bunch of these offices prior to the convention. we got an extensive number of voice mails, got in touch with people who said they weren't going to open an office until after the convention. there was so much time waisted between the time he secured the nomination until now. they should have been making ad and they didn't do it. >> and that's the thing. if you look at it he said this

isn't a dysfunctional campaign. this isn't a bizarre campaign. this isn't a campaign at all. there is no campaign here. you think about it. mark said if he wins he is not going win with a ground game. he is not going to win with a get out to vote campaign because he has no field offices. he is not going to win on a disciplined communication approach because he has no disciplined communication. he has got nothing. it is donald trump flying by the seat of his pants every cday. >> people wait for the campaign to pivot to become a campaign. what you're essentially saying is time has almost run out on that. >> well, time has run out on or organizing. >> so the question is if you have do some version of the brexit and it just happens.

>> there are not enough -- >> right. it's hard to see how that happens. >> i think there are two primaries to look to -- >> let me be specific, there aren't enough old white people to come out and shock people. it is 2016, not 1980. >> and the things is where donald trump got outorganized. he lost in iowa. he didn't have the kind of long-term depth that say even hillary clinton still has. >> and we were talking objectively to talk about how prepared it is compare today the trump campaign which is not organized. >> trump tower. >> this is a group of people that lost to barack obama for this very reason. this is what they have taken to heart now into this general

election. it has been an almost singular focus for them. it is another reason why the super pack is going down on tv. >> and something else about this campaign. in 2008 when they screwed up nobody would admit they screwed up. all bow to hillary. now you go okay. help me out. i know. we get it. there is more of an understanding. i don't know that there are people that go in and kick down the door and tell hillary, stop doing that. there is more of an openness to, hey, yeah, that really wasn't a good fox news interview and she is going to avoid crossing the fbi director in the future. >> and like all campaigns there is fighting there but think about the number of times you have read articles, blaming the

candidate, there is none of that. they have set the tone of we are not going have that kind of stuff in this campaign. it makes a huge difference for moral. >> it is also easier when you feel like you're winning. >> yeah. >> and their backs against the wall. they say the trump campaign is not a bad campaign. it's not a messed up campaign. it's not a dysfunctional campaign tlchlt is no campaign. so i will let you get to your three points. >> look, the first part obviously blaming the obama/clinton team, libya, syria, things they did and didn't do. >> but the problem is trump says i never said i supported going

to iraq and told howard stern yeah, i think we need to go there. same thing with libya. >> he has a problem as a messenger there. >> and he is on video talking about cleaning the place out. >> second of all to the victor go it is spoils, that we should have stayed in iraq and held the oil. we actually could have united iraq. that's a different sort of argument. what was really weakest is what to do about the stuff, an international conference, extreme vetting of immigrants. >> it is a move from the muslim ban. he hasn't said that but he actually -- >> he rephrased it. >> yeah. and he is -- >> cutting off the money and

there was very little put forward that we are not already doing. that to me was the weakness of the speech. if he got everything he wanted it is not clear to me we will be anymore successful. the wrath of con. rubio stands by trump even though he branded him a con man. and early voting begins in some swing states after labor day. does donald trump have less time to turn it around than we may have thugt? and we'll break down his new at and one of utah's most prominent breaks. the flood waters are still rising. here is a check on the forecast. what's it looking like? >> pretty amazing. still downstream. the water is still very high. it was ind end and actually spawned a tornado.

this is an impressive little twister there on the ground. we actually have a tornado threat on the northeast. to the maps we go. tropical moisture still screaming. the humid air is in place. once it pushes to the east later today we'll get a little bit of a typical hot, humid air mass hitting the cold front. this slight risk of severe storms, boston, philically incl. hopefully we won't have any. if we do it will most likely be on the low-end scale of a tornado strength. we are watching the rain in louisiana and texas. here is the rainfall predictions, another 1 to 2 inches. it shouldn't cause too many problems. the heat is relentless. the heat index easily over 100

to columbia. it should be the end of your significant heat. it should feel like 106 to with cooler air coming as we head towards the weekend. we have been showing you beautiful shots of rio. thunderstorms rolled through. today looks like a much nicer day in rio. "morning joe" when we come back. isaac hou has mastered gravity defying moves to amaze his audience. great show. here you go. now he's added a new routine. making depositing a check seem so effortless. easy to use chase technology, for whatever you're trying to master. isaac, are you ready? yeah. chase. so you can.

what headache?in? what arthritis pain? advil makes pain a distant memory nothing works faster stronger or longer what pain? advil. i'm hillary clinton, and i approve this message. michael hayden: if he governs consistent with some of the things he said as a candidate, i would be very frightened. gillian turner: he's been talking about the option of using a nuclear weapon against our western european allies. max boot: this is not somebody who should be handed the nuclear codes. charles krauthammer: you have to ask yourself, do i want a person of that temperament controlling the nuclear codes? and as of now, i'd have to say no. [bill o'reilly sighs]

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>> utah is a state that hasn't gone democratic since when? >> 1964. third party candidate qualified to appear on the state's ballot,

potentially squeezing donald trump on the right. in a salt lake city newspaper donald trump is following suit. they discussed religious liberty. the warnings against trump from mitt romney and larry presler. they went after clinton and obama for radical islam and the death of police officers in dallas and baton rouge. in an apparent reference to his tone trump notes that a lot of things are said but he writes barack obama and hillary clinton try today undermine and speak openly and about their faith undermining religious liberty has been for decades.

>> as long as he is playing in really bad state for him. he has to worry if he does have a big come back he may lose it all in utah. >> what about mcmullin? >> he may not carry it but he certainly has enough to draw votes to allow hillary clinton to carry it. >> mitt romney has a lot of power in utah. we saw that where he got behind ted cruz and made a huge difference. mitt romney, at the end of the day, could have the last laugh with donald trump. >> he stayed pretty quiet. he doesn't really want to put himself out there forward. if utah is going to make a difference you could see it. this is a, yes, romney was on the leading edge of this that wanted to lead in every trump

movement but that stack of politicia politicians, you know, they remember when they were on the receiving end on rhetoric that sounded a lot like donald trump's. >> you know who else had problems -- >> rub oio. >> yeah. he calls him a con man. >> so you can't support a con man because who would? unless maybe you're a republican senator. he also supports him for president. here is what he told the miami harold editorial board yesterday. >> he is a con man. he is trying to take over the conservative movement but more importantly he is a con. she a con man taking advantage of people's fears and anxieties about the future. what we are dealing with here is

a con artist. i have a message for mr. trump. mr. trump, i have a message for him. i will campaign in all 50 statesme states. i will drive around before i allow ly allow the party of lincoln and reagan to fall into the hands of a con man. i stood by everything i ever said and we are in a difference place now. we have a choice. there are two people in the world that will be the next president, either donald or hillary. >> he looked pained though. >> yeah. >> i don't understand it. >> maybe barnicle has a pickup

truck to send to rubio. >> you do not follow that in the next state by saying i endorse the man who apit miezs racism with his words. the american people aren't going to say wait a minute, you're a con man. what does it say about you? what does it say about you? the center cannot hold. >> and it is amongst the problems you'll have in the fall with candidates who are not going to want to appear with them if at all. >> and sam stein, i guess this makes perfect sense. donald trump is running against somebody at buzz feed. buzz feed dug up a quote saying

i support hillary clinton. he is wonderful. >> he is -- >> you can almost say when it comes to politics he is a con man. >> you might be able to say that. >> he also said he wouldn't trust trump with a nuclear code. i do wonder how much this is a problem not just for trump but how much it's a problem for rubio's future. when we look back at this election presuming that trump does lose and presuming that he does lose by a fair amount, will we look back at people like rubio who wouldn't get on the right side of this equation and wonder if that hurts him. i don't know. ted cruz, the day after his convention speech he had overextended himself. he had gone a little too far. there is a place in between. it is where they have objected

to donald trump but they have done it in a semi muted fashion. he is trying to have both sides of this. and we'll talk about the one metric that could prove to be the most damaging. we have his new reporting on why thins a things are looking tough. it is getting late early in the words of lupica. we'll be right back.

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>> i think we could have used a better ground game, a term i wasn't familiar with. you say what the hell is that but now i'm familiar with it. i think in retro specific we should have a better ground game. >> that was donald trump in february after coming in second on the iowa caucuses. now that he knows what a ground game is, is he going to get it? why doesn't he have it? that was in february. >> the end days in february. >> it was unbelievable. i mean we are running out of time. when is he going to get a ground game? yikes. with us now is new york times reporter jeremy peters and author and columnist mike lup a

lupica. we have mark halperin back with us as well. mike lupica, talk about donald trump. you have known him for a long time. he just keeps handing this race to hillary clinton. >> he has been presented in so many ways a dream opponent. >> we'll show a clip in a second of a senate candidate and she refuses to answer three times. >> everybody wants to change the subject away from hillary clinton including hillary clinton. trump continues do it for her. he continues to divert attention, to all of the things that would help any republican candidate. i think kasich right now would be crushing her. >> kasich, bush. >> and my math might be winning by 650%.

>> it is unbelievable. jeremy peters, you look at all of the metrics, they are all down. he is even getting crushed among his base compared to mitt romney who was winning in virginia who i think won white, non-college educated by 44. he is getting crushed in every metric. >> except for why men who do not have college degrees. you can't win a college election if there are not enough base. it assumes you can keep the nonwhite numbers down and donald trump has proved to be a one-man turnout machine.

one of the moreov overlooked polls. one of the things that's so difficult about gauging where hispanics are is you need to interview them in english and spanish. it found donald trump is barely cracking 20% with latinos. it's stunning. if that's all he has got the election is over. >> i don't know there are enough white votes. you take pennsylvania, yes. there are a lot of men without college degrees that are white and are going to vote for donald trump. if donald trump leaves philadelphia minus 600,000 you can't make that up across the state, can he? >> it cannot be done. the math in a lot of battleground states, the theory is yes but there's not enough of them to do so much better. as people have said, he turned a lot of white voters off. >> he is the first who is

actually losing without winning white educated voters. >> and even if they do win mitt romney won by double digits. he lost by 5 million votes. unless you're going to do better there's no path to the white house. >> he rightfully bragged but we talked about this before. yeah, he is going to get 50 million more. i went back and looked at the romney, obama breakdown and he gets crushed with african americans, looses pretty badly with women. you have been talking about that for months, where is trump going to improve those numbers and do better that romney did against obama? >> you know what the republicans will have a look at, 7 out of 10

americans who are seniors are white christians. when you talk about people under the age of 35 it's 3 and 10. i think they need to figure out this country is a little different. >> and you see it in the polls. >> you do see it in the polls. we shouldn't forget hillary cltohas plen of of issues of her own. 11% of americans saying they trust hillary clinton. this is starting to become a problem. we talked about brobs. take a look at democratic senate being asked to weigh in on hillary clinton's honesty. >> do you think she is honest and trustworthy? >> support her because her record -- >> do you think she is honest? >> she has a critical plan among others for making college more

affordable. >> but do you think she is trustworthy? >> i think she demonstrated a commitment always to something beyond herself, bigger than herself. >> the campaign leader told the reporter that the governor does in deed believe clinton is honest. >> the governor couldn't say it. >> but on camera proving your point that republicans have to be going back to the classic snl skit in 1988. i can't believe i'm losing to this person. >> and james comey's press conference and pay for play and you can apparently get a seat on a board -- >> that deals with nuclear weapons. >> no. they have been presented all of these gifts and they were talking about second amendment people and how clinton are the

mvp's of isis. >> if you're going vote for untruthful or dangerous what are you going to vote for? you're going to vote for untruthful. >> do we need to show the clip where he contradicted himself every time? he is so inconsistent it is extraordinary. the washington post will run out of -- >> i think it is baked in that we don't trust politicians. >> rubio is proof of that. >> yeah. >> i wrote about this the other day. i was talking to him and everybody remembers it's the economy from 92. there was another message from the war room wall. it was change versus more of the same. trump had that going for him. he has spent the last three

months squadering whatever -- >> is the race over? we have a couple of months. we have two and a half months. a week is a lifetime in politics. i think harold mcmillan said that! john wooden. >> john wooden said that too. jeremy peters, so there's another question that is pretty effective in who will win political race and that's empathy. >> one of the things donald trump always had going for him was this sense among supporters that he was fighting for them. he was a big guy to stick up and make shire laifs wetter. when you ask voters who they think care more about people

like them. i think that's the result of the ceaseless self-inflicted wounds where he appears to go after a little guy. >> and let's put the numbers back up there. we have to go to break. he cares about people like me. hillary clinton 45%. that's changed dramatically. we have to look at the cons and remember if it was not him. >> this has been a weakness for him, surprising in some ways. he lost on this question at times to rubio and to ted cruz. >> it sure gets late early around here. it is another piece of advice here. when you come to a fork in the road, take it. >> exactly. all right. it's always great to have you here. still ahead, many democrats would have you believe president obama's law is an unqualified

success. wait, it is pulling out of nearly all states where it participates and exchanges. it continues the disturbing trend. we'll talk about how that's a big blow to the law. ♪ ♪

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it is strange, i think that we are not hearing more about the economy. even if your viewers aren't buying or selling stocks they may have a pension fund. a lot of states are under water. they need stocks to go up to support with a pension plan. one piece of not good news is aetna saying it is cutting back 70% on obamacare. some have said this is aetna being sort of sour grapes about the decision to block its deal with humana. united health care are not invol involved not good for the public health exchanges. we appreciate it. we'll be back in a moment.

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all right. pennsylvania's attorney general accused of leaking information. pretty crazy trial there. >> yeah. i will go with pornographic on many of these e-mails. cane found guilty on nine counts including perjury and criminal conspiracy. they say cane leaked documents to discredit a former state prosecutor and lied to cover it

up. her defense attorney says she was wrongfully accused. cane, who was the first woman and first democrat elected as pennsylvania's attorney general faces up to seven years in prison. her trial saw a number of bizarre incidents including her decision to release sex kbruall explicit and racist e-mails. don't read them with your kids. cane's sister walked in front of the actual attorney general who came into court wearing a red dress to fake out photographers. >> okay. coming up, what if anything did we learn today? it's something out of new hampshire. so when you got rear-ended and needed a tow, your insurance company told you to look at page five on your policy.

did it say "great news. you're covered!" on page five? no. it said, "blah blah, blah blah blah blah blah..." the liberty mutual app with coverage compass™ makes it easy to know what you're covered for and what you're not. liberty stands with you. liberty mutual insurance. hhis stellar notebooks will last through june. get back to great. this week sharpie twelve-packs just three dollars. office depot officemax. gear up for school. gear up for great. i'm hillary clinton, and i approve this message. michael hayden: if he governs consistent with some of the things he said as a candidate, i would be very frightened. gillian turner: he's been talking about the option of using a nuclear weapon against our western european allies. max boot: this is not somebody who should be handed the nuclear codes. charles krauthammer: you have to ask yourself, do i want a person of that temperament controlling the nuclear codes? and as of now, i'd have to say no. [bill o'reilly sighs]

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the question if hillary clinton is honest and trustworthy. and donald trump is still getting crushed by hillary clinton. >> all right. it's "morning joe." stick around. stephanie picks up the coverage right now. all right. here is a question, what exactly does it mean and how does it work? this is as he opens up a new line of attack on hillary clinton. >> she also lacks the mental and physical stamina to take on isis. >> joe biden on the trail with hillary clinton hitting back. >> this man is totally, thorough