girl discovered magic. a revolution began. welcome, to the wonders that happen, everyday. welcome, to it all. comcast. that's all for tonight. we'll be back tomorrow with more "mtp daily." have a good night. i'm donny deutch. >> i'm mark halperin. "with all due respect" to all that has come after john mclaughlin did it first and did it best. the pioneering political talk show host john mclaughlin has passed away. we will talk about him later in the program. first, another day and more battleground state polls showing

more problems for donald j. trump. a new monmouth university survey has hillary clinton leading in florida 48% to 39% among likely voters. a "the washington post" poll of virginia voters has really turned heads today. it shows hillary cnton with a 14-point lead in the commonwealth, 52% to 38% among registered voters. the race is closer but still an eight-point lead for clinton among likely voters. the more you dig into the survey, the worse things look for donald trump. check out some of the numbers and how trump is doing compared to how mitt romney did against president obama four years ago, looking at the exit polls from election day back then. among white voters, that's a group romney won by 24% in virginia, according to the exit polls, trump only leads by eight points. with veterans and military families, a constituency trump often brags he will own, he's down by eight points in this poll, 43% to 35%. in the exit polls four years ago, romney and obama tied at

49% amongst that group. clinton also leads him among independents in this poll by 13 points, a complete reversal from 2012 when romney won virginia independents by 11 points. even among republicans, there are warning signs for trump. he's leading clinton among gop voters in virginia by 71 percentage points, not bad until you see this romney beat obama by 89 percentage points among the republican faithful four years ago. yet, in the interview with fox news today in wisconsin, trump was defiant about the state of his campaign. >> i actually think i'm doing good. i have the biggest crowds. you're there. you see them. nobody's ever had crowds like this, they say. >> you have enthusiastic supporters but do they go beyond that? >> we have to see. when i left wisconsin the last time it was over for trump. it was over. trump was not going to win. the primaries, then i went to new york and various places, won in landslides. >> starts to get scary referring to himself in the third person. what are the implications for

his campaign? what are the implications for him? >> this is one of the worst polls he's had because virginia is such an important state. to be down with independents, to have nowhere near the consolidation with republicans that romney had four years ago, and to have, you heard in that sound bite, the two ways he can go. one is to say everything's great, my crowds are big. the other is to say i have been counted out before and i will fight back. it is dangerous to assume an underdog posture and admit things aren't going well this early but i think this poll suggests he's got no choice. the number of surveys now of the electoral college showing him with no path under the current set of circumstances is such that he has to convince the american people he will fight back into this race rather than saying i got big crowds. >> yeah. a few numbers that jumped out at me. obviously the military number. i have said this before. i think the khan moment was the defining moment in this campaign. his net negatives. hilary is net negative 10, he's net negative 33. that's incredible. the difference in the white

voters as far as white educated voters, romney took by ten, clinton is by 16, difference of 26. uneducated voters, a difference of 20. the numbers are stunning. we didn't get into the geography of the polls. if you see the suburbs, alexandria, places outside of washington, they are so overwhelming for hillary as they were in the same types of suburbs in pennsylvania. historically, you look at who takes the suburbs and look at the women in the suburbs, that's usually what decides the election. he's losing the women and losing the suburbs. >> romney lost virginia even winning amongst independents. the danger for trump now is how do you come back against clinton if she is going to run up in the cities with urban vote including african-american vote and dominate the suburbs? how do you come back? if trump dominates suburbs and the cities in pennsylvania, ohio, wisconsin, virginia, north carolina, florida, there's not enough rural white vote to come

back with. >> we are starting to see the effects of a professional campaign versus non-professional. hillary has had people on the ground since april, 28 field offices, spent $5 million. trump is giving speeches. some of this stuff works. >> the other thing is education. you see it everywhere. it is the defining issue of this race. if virginia is this far apart and we reported yesterday her super pac is going off the air in virginia, if virginia is this far apart, what about north carolina? what about georgia? tim miller yesterday, the republican anti-trump strategist talked about missouri. i heard from a leading missouri republican today said you bet, missouri's in play and the incumbent senator is in some trouble in that state for the same reason. all right. amidst all this talk about trump's demise, hillary clinton has already started her post-election day planning. today, her campaign announced a team that will begin prepping for a white house transition if, if she wins in november. the team's going to be led by the former secretary of the interior and senator from colorado, ken salazar. the transition team will include

tom donnelin, former national security advisor, jennifer granholm and maggie williams and neara tanden. is it smart for her to announce her transition team and make a point of telling the world i'm planning my transition? >> i think this is a terrible mistake. it's one thing to act like a winner. it's another thing to start declaring victory. one of the things that hurt hillary at the beginning of the election is we are not going to coronate her. that propped bernie up. there is a difference between arrogance and assumptiveness. there's a difference trying to get ducks in order. this just did not feel right to me. >> risk is small. here's the upside i think. number one, she put together an impressive team of people that elites and people will recognize, a diverse group of experienced people, and i think that says to people once again, clinton has experienced people

on her side, people, as you have argued, who will look for experience over what they might see as a risk. the other thing is i think one of the biggest things going for her to put trump away before labor day, if she can do it, is the inevitability. you do polls, there haven't been enough yet but there will be more, who do you think will win regardless of who you are voting for. people now because of the drum beat of polls putting her ahead say she will win. this contributes to that. >> this maybe gives people pause. speaking of transition teams, who is trump's transition? chris christie. when's the last time we saw him? >> he's a little busy now dealing with his on problems at home. that's a contrast they are going for. his team is one politician who is now awol, m.i.a., and her team has a bunch of known people and diverse group of people, experienced people. she's running on experience. >> speaking of teams, i found it fascinating today, of course the "new york post" is always credible that ivanka and her husband are on david geffen's boat in croatia. two of the most important people

in his campaign. we talked about how donald trump has been putting down ballot republican candidates in somewhat awkward positions. what hasn't been talked about as much as down ballot democrats who are tying to figure out how to navigate the unpopularity of their party's standard bearer. take maggie hassan from new hampshire who was asked three times about one of hillary clinton's biggest vulnerabilities. >> do you think that she's honest and trustworthy? >> i support hillary clinton for the presidency because her experience and her record demonstrate that she's qualified to hold the job. >> you think she's honest? >> she has a critical, critical plan among others for making college more affordable. >> is she trustworthy? >> i think that she has demonstrated a commitment always to something beyond herself, bigger than herself. >> after the campaign clarified she does, in fact, see clinton as honest but wondering if any other democrats in close senate races would have similar

responses so we reached out to a few today and asked do they think hillary clinton is honest and trustworthy. we heard back from three, whose answers were nearly identical. a spokesman for ann kirkpatrick said quote, yes, ann looks forward to our nation electing its first female president and is supporting secretary clinton. john mccain is supporting donald trump for president [ inaudible ]. ted strickland's campaign in ohio said quote, yes, does rob portman believe the same thing about his endorsed candidate, donald trump? katie mcginty's team said yes, and katie believes donald trump is neither honest nor trustworthy. does this suggest every democrat will have to answer this question? >> i don't know if the trump campaign planted that question or not. cnn reporter is a very talented guy. might have come up with it on his on. this is a vital test for the trump campaign. can they fighting against reporters' current bias against trump because he's losing, can they put democrats on the

defensive. we asked a lot of democrats who come on this show about what they thought about hillary clinton's e-mail practices and most of them dodge it and say let's move past that, she's apologized. they must produce tension between hillary clinton and the democratic nominees for their party, or they will be on a losing battle in the earned media wars all fall. >> i think all three of those people had a very interesting pivot. >> with time to think about it. >> just simple yes and right into it. i also think, i said this before about the hillary clinton untruthful thing, people know and think she's untruthful and she has been, period. i don't think in a typical election that would cost her against somebody who is potentially dangerous. it's just the two don't compare. >> i don't think she will improve those numbers very much. i don't think trump will improve his numbers very much. this campaign, you will have numbers where people will look in the abstract and say they couldn't possibly win but they will because they ran against the other one. what will it take for a trump comeback? we'll explore. feed him to the s!

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so far this week the conventional wisdom in some quarters is that with three months to go, this presidential race might already be over. but the conventional wisdom pendulum is swinging back a bit now. some people in the media and even the clinton campaign is saying correctly it's too soon to totally write off donald trump. what is the path for the republican nominee to come back? what would it take? >> few things. first of all, he has to put some heart in it. the khan thing really hurt him. why isn't he down in louisiana? we have never seen him interacting with people. clinton did that with hurricane andrew. that would take a big step to see him with his arms around people. i still think walk back the khan thing. yesterday he said three times, extreme vetting, extreme vetting, extreme vetting. i 92 know it was a goofy thing,t it is an interesting twist on the way he stepped back from the muslim wall. it hits a nerve with everybody. everybody says we have to figure out a way. there's no way to execute it but

stay hard line. i wouldn't waste any more time on the economy because it's typical republican, typical democratic stuff and this election it won't make a difference. be the hard line i'm going to protect you candidate, then, this is the scary part that would help him, it's hard to even talk about it, if unfortunately we have a horrible terrorist attack near the election, which scares me because if you are the jihadists you want him in there and then do you then cause one, if it's close enough, people will react purely with their right brains, let's put this lunatic in there. the very thing that his temperament almost goes on its head. that scares the bejesus out of me. >> i totally disagree about the economy. i think that's got to be part of it. the list is long. he has to do well in the debates, be more disciplined. i will say one thing i heard from a couple republicans and some brought home to me by a youtube video that showed donald trump laughing. how often do you see him laugh in public, show empathy, show emotion? he has to have people think anew

about him. to me, to some republicans who i have been talking to about this, they have to think anew because he shows himself as a full human being. laugh, maybe not cry, but show emotion. show empathy. people have to think wow, this guy would be a good president because he's got the character goods. now, the doubters would say that's not him. it would all be phony. but we have seen that. we have seen donald trump show a full range of emotion in every interaction in private than he ever does in public. >> other than on the golf course, have we ever seen him with his jacket off? and you know, you can't get to know him. he's up here. as i said, it's not his style, go out to the people. go to the rural areas. hug, let's see a human being there. let's see the person the kids talked about. but i think something short of an international crisis, i'm not quite sure any of this makes a difference. >> i think if there were a crisis, not necessarily the kind you are talking about, but anything that would be a test of leadership where he could show how he would behave, hillary clinton has gotten away being

very cautious in this race which is her natural inclination as a politician, not necessarily as a government official. she has been cautious. very few press conferences or interviews or dramatic moments that aren't scripted. if an unscripted moment he could show himself in full, i think that's got to be part if it's going to be any kind of comeback. >> i will say as a dad i'm very afraid there's a self-fulfilling prophesy. this is a once in a lifetime chance for people that hate us to put a guy like this in office. if he loses in november will he still be a political force after the election? >> i don't think so. joe scarborough talks about having a tv network, people talk about him being turned to every time there's a development. i don't think he will be interested in being involved. i don't think he will be involved. i think like most presidential losers, particularly somebody of his age, he's done. he will pop up every so often as a curiosity but i think he will build golf courses and tall buildings. >> i disagree with you. i don't think he wants to be

seen as a loser. i think he could start a party. >> which stands for what? >> stands for the nonsense he stands for. i'm not saying this is rational. >> the democratic party and the republican party stand for everything he stands for. >> listen. doesn't matter. he's got anywhere between 20 and 40 or 50 million people who by his words if i killed somebody on fifth avenue they would follow me. i think he wants a voice at the table for the rest of his life and whether it's the network that turns into a party, trump is not going away. >> if he loses, if he loses, i think he will not go away but he will be a pop cultural figure and a new york figure. he will not be a political figure. >> know why he's not going to go away? because the first crisis that happens after the president talks, who will the cameras go to? not necessarily the opposing view, whoever that congressman is. they will go to trump. this is now a voice unfortunately of a group of americans that is up and is not going back down. we will see. >> i never bet on what i cover.

there are media reports that roger ailes formerly of fox news now advises the trump campaign ahead of the first presidential debate next month. if true, is that a good idea? we will talk about that. don't let dust and allergens get between you and life's beautiful moments. flonase gives you more complete allergy relief. most allergy pills only control one inflammatory substance. flonase controls 6. and six is greater than one. flonase changes everything. ♪ what comes to mind when you think about healthcare? understanding your options? or, if you're getting the care you need?

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let me start with you, rick. are we voting for mr. trump? >> i support republican candidates and have throughout my entire career going back to ronald reagan who is my first president that i was able to vote for, and i will be voting republican but i don't necessarily vote for everybody on the ticket. so i will pick and choose along both the top of the ticket and all the way to the bottom. >> want to get into a juicy story today. it was reported roger ailes is working with trump, advising him on his debate prep. the campaign has denied it. i would love your thoughts. let's say this is true. good or bad for mr. trump? >> i don't think it could be bad for him. he probably could use some of the -- any advice. the question is will he take the advice. roger ailes has proven to be one of the most effective communicators. he leaves with questions around his personal conduct. >> that's a big deal for a guy that is getting decimated by women. this guy brings with him obviously a guy who just had to retire based on sexual harassment suits. as smart as this guy is, i don't know if i want that baggage. am i overreacting?

>> i think people have to decide what they are going to do. if roger ailes is going to advise donald trump, he better say so. the worst thing you could possibly do is drip, drip, drip the story that oh, they talked last week or there was a phone call or he's advising him but not really advising him. you take the hit and say the guy's on my team, i stand by him, he's advising me, he's a smart guy, built one of the most important networks of our time, or he's not advising him. it's one or the other. there's no real in between in this business. it's certainly not -- >> isn't this indicative of the trump campaign? this is how it played itself out. >> there's a rotating group of advisors that come in and one group comes in and replace the ones thjust got thrown out and they get recycled back in. he ought to get advice from anybody he wants. i think this is an important high stakes race and yet i think it's sort of what you said, that is who's he going to listen to. does he listen to anybody. i think this guy basically listens to his own conscience, what there is of it, and he makes decisions on the fly. it's whatever seems to hit him

that moment, that day, rather it's in the written text or whether he's just making it up as he goes along. he was that way all during the debates in the republican primary and i think he's going to be that way in this debate, no matter what you say to that guy, when he hits that stage, he's making it up as he goes along. >> one of your former partners, paul manafort is an advisor to donald trump's campaign. he's the chairman. he's come under scrutiny this week for work he's done in russia and ukraine. you have done work in ukraine, correct? >> i have not done work in yu y ukraine but i have in eastern europe. >> what do you think of the scrutiny of financial dealings of advisors to campaigns? is that fair game for the media? >> the media gets to decide what's fair game. in the 2008 campaign, i would say there was even more scrutiny. i could not appoint anybody to our campaign who had ever been a lobbyist because at that time, the media scrutiny on lobbyists was such that they would find some client that you had that was, you know, media fodder for the day's news.

so we had a number of advisors and -- who wound up having to leave our campaign in 2008 because of the history of clients at they had. in fact, charlie black and i were even subject of barack obama tv commercials in northern virginia about our history as lobbyists. so i would say it was much di y dicier for anybody making a living as a lobbyist than it is today. >> as you have read about paul manafort's ties, did anything seem suspicious or questionable to you? >> i learned a lot through the media and look, he says this was all pretty straightforward. look, presidential politics has this incredible ability to turn on the kleig lights and see right through the skeleton. this is the top of the sport. so look, he's got a distraction, he's got to figure out a way to either blow through the distraction or deal with it and try and knock it down. it will be interesting to see which road they take.

the more you try to sort of manage the press on this front, the more distracts you from the real goal which is getting donald trump elected. >> do you think these issues matter to voters? should they matter to voters, how an advisor made his money or her money? >> only because we are talking about eastern europe and talking about russia will it have some currency or perhaps some relevance. if they are able to connect dots showing after mr. manafort said none of this was true, it could have some impact. ultimately, most voters across the country, particularly in the rust belt and middle of the country will look at the candidates, the policy, the temperament, who is most suited to be president and that's what they make their decision on. >> we saw a democrat running for office asked a question three times, can you trust hillary clinton, is she a liar, wouldn't answer the question. possibly a playbook for every democrat going before a camera. i will ask you the question. is hillary clinton telling the truth? >> she does. i have the greatest confidence if she's elected president, she will work with democrats, republicans alike who can believe and take her word.

>> we saw the fbi director basically say she doesn't, in that instance. that doesn't mean she lies about everything. we have him clearly say she want telling the truth. >> i'm not going to relitigate it. she said she made a mistake. i wouldn't have done what she did. she's admitted to that. is her entire career going to be judged by this? i seriously doubt it. the fbi director also made the recommendation that no action should be taken. so if he made that recommendation, i'm -- i can live with that. i'm certain she can as well. based on polling, voters believe she has a better temperament than donald trump does to be president. >> there's the answer. there's the playbook. we tested it. >> do you think that the trump campaign could do more to get democrats to ask tough -- be asked tough questions by reporters like that? >> i think it's really more incumbent upon donald trump to ask the tough questions, right? i think if i were giving advice i would say quit spending all your time talking about extraneous issues and put the heat on hillary clinton to come clean with these kind of issues. when you go up and start picking

on republicans, and you are sharing time with your podium with sort of litigating your own internal party issues, you are wasting time. you want to spend 100% of your time on contrasting with your opponent who is on the ballot, not a bunch of people who aren't on the ballot. >> or your friend john mccain. >> well, john mccain's on the ballot. he's got a good campaign going on in arizona. the guy is a tireless campaigner. he started two years ago to run against a former state senator. i think he will do well. >> quick break. rick davis, harold ford, stick around. we'll be right back. ♪ ♪

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we're back with rick davis, campaign manager for john mccain's 2008 presidential bid and the former congressman from tennessee, harold ford jr., clinton supporter. joining us, msnbc political correspondent kasie hunt with us in studio. harold, donny and i talked about this -- >> say studio again. >> studio. donny and i talked about this

earlier. if secretary clinton says to you harold, is this over, what would you tell her? >> no. >> because? >> first of all, there are 80 some days to go. anything can happen in these races. i would say this. if you look at the state by state polling, look at the demographics in some of the key counties that she has to win or he has to do well in in rust belt states, we mentioned in others, she should feel pretty good about where she is. a lot of this has to do with people's resentment and rejection of donald trump. one worry i have as we move forward is you normally want two strong candidates even if you obviously want to beat the other candidate. when the other candidate is running kind of a campaign that lacks purpose and vision and substance, it almost pulls down the other campaign. one of the challenges for us is to maintain a level place, almost like in sports. if you are playing a team and get ahead 3-0, you have four games to go, you can ask oklahoma city, ask golden state what happens when you lose focus. so this isn't over. the focus we have to redouble the efforts i think every single week, if not every single day, particularly after labor day.

i still contend the winner of that september 26th debate, if it is donald trump september 26, it changes the dynamics in this race as romney did four years ago in the obama race. mrs. clinton, secretary clinton and the campaign has to remain not only focused but kind of laser-like focus day after day after day. >> rick, i'm wondering, you obviously know senator john mccain very well, having worked with him for a long time. you were talking earlier about your votes down ballot. he's in such a difficult place at this point. i'm wondering just from a personal perspective, what is he going through? have you spoken with him? what do you think is the mindset there? >> i'm not sure it's such a difficult place. he run five times for the united statesenate, twice as president and as a congressman in that state. he's been on a lot of ballots, got a lot of support. he is the best known politician bar none, bar hillary clinton, bar donald trump, in the state of arizona. people a long time made up their minds about john mccain.

if anything, his ballot is completely inflexible. those people who love him, love him no matter what anybody says or does about him. those people who dislike him, dislike him no matter what good news you can get delivered to them. so the cake is baked in arizona. now, all campaigns matter. i would be the last guy to say a campaign doesn't matter. so he has to run for re-election and is doing a great job. he started two years ago, built a great campaign team, has had a lot of support from outside groups, chamber of commerce, super pacs. he's built an organization on the ground. he took over the state party with 1900 precinct committee people. the guy has done everything you would do to say this is a model campaign of an incumbent in a bad incumbent year and what they need to do. he's not sat back and watched the parade go by. so when you look at the numbers, last public polling, he was double digits ahead of his primary opponent. when you're halfway through the early voting right now. and he was significantly ahead of his general election opponent

which he will run ahead of donald trump and hillary clinton in the state of arizona. so when you say he's got a campaign, every campaign is a campaign, no matter what. but he's well prepared for victories both in the primary and the general next 90 days. >> i want to ask about trump's foreign policy. he gave a foreign policy speech about his readiness for commander in chief. i want a yes or no answer and i know you aren't in the opinion business but just as a gut. do you think if donald trump was here right now, we asked him the name of the new prime minister of great britain he would know the answer? yes or no? >> who knows. i have no idea. >> just your gut. >> kasie? >> i would give him the benefit of the doubt. >> probably. >> probably not. >> i say probably not. i didn't make it belgium. >> those are the kind of things that absolutely voters couldn't care less about. they will vote for donald trump with or without his ability to name the yugoslavian racketball champion. >> i said the number one ally in the world. >> who is that? >> trump is down like eight

points -- >> there's no more yugoslavia, by the way. >> he's down eight points, the clock is ticking. as you get later in the game, the lead is growing against him. what's it like to be, you have been in this position, what's it like to have your candidate every day get polling data multiple times a day and be behind? what does that do to the psyche? >> the reality is best example of that was bob dole's campaign that i was on in 1996, where literally from the day of your convention which was sort of your high point, you got within five points of bill clinton to the rest of the campaign where that was your high water mark. every single day your polling came back and said you're losing ground, not gaining ground. look, guys like bob dole, they are creatures of the political system. they have seen these polls before. they have won and lost elections and he had a maturity about him that said you know what, i go out every day, i'm going to hammer away and ultimately, came to the conclusion that he could

do more positive for the down ballot races and committed basically all the resources of the campaign, the rnc and senate and house committees to do that rather than pursue to the bitter end his ambition to be president. that was an impressive decision. >> what's it like for the candidate, the team around a candidate when you're behind all the time? >> not good. one of the ironies and differences with the dole campaign, remember in '96 clinton ran against gingrich. in this go-round if republicans could elevate paul ryan they would love that. it would be a different kind of race. if you are getting those kind of polls back, you talked bit earlier, how do you think about rejuvenating and changing the course of your campaign. both of you had some positive things and perhaps he will listen. i doubt he will listen. but at the end of the day you got to look at the data, say this is not going the way we want it to go. if i were running that cam opinion we would run as an outsider. it doesn't take much thinking to figure out where the country is. he doesn't seem to have the discipline to do the basics to win. it should raise real, real doubts in people's mind, can

this guy actually lead something as important as the united states of america, the next four, maybe eight years. ifan't follow a simple template and simple narrative to try to get elected. >> we haven't seen temperament of him as a loser so far. that will be interesting to watch. >> i bet you agree with what he just said. >> i would find very little to disagree with. >> thank you both. kasie will stick around for more. we'll be right back. i'm anne howard and i'm michael howard. we left on our honeymoon in january 2012. it actually evolved into a business. from our blog to video editing... our technology has to hang tough with us. when you're going to a place without electricity, you need a long battery life. the touch, combined with the screen resolution... a mac doesn't have that. we wanted to help more people get out there and see the world. once you take that leap, that's where the magic happens.

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i'm hillary clinton, and i approve this message. michael hayden: if he governs consistent with some of the things he said as a candidate, i would be very frightened. gillian turner: he's been talking about the option of using a nuclear weapon against our western european allies. max boot: this is not somebody who should be handed the nuclear codes. charles krauthammer: you have to ask yourself, do i want a person of that temperament controlling the nuclear codes? and as of now, i'd have to say no. [bill o'reilly sighs] and as of now, i'd have to say no. hhis stellar notebooks will last through june. get back to great. this week sharpie twelve-packs just three dollars. office depot officemax. gear up for school. gear up for great.

back with msnbc political correspondent kasie hunt and ileana johnson from the national review joins us from d.c. let me start with you. at what point do the folks down ballot start to cut ties with mr. trump and the rnc? is there a moment where they go look, we just got to save this thing down ballot? >> you know, i'm not sure if we will see people cut ties, but we have certainly seen a change after the convention. i had pollsters telling me before the convention they just weren't seeing trump's effect down ballot and candidates were running and they still are, about eight to ten points ahead of trump. after the convention, this has changed. i don't hear pollsters saying anymore that trump isn't going to affect down ballot races. as trump has tanked, so too have republican candidates. trump is down ten points in pennsylvania and pat toomey, who is running arguably the best campaign in the country, has

been behind in four of the last five polls there. you know, toomey can run nine points ahead of trump and is still losing that race right now. looks really bad for republicans down ballot at this point. >> i'm curious, the challenge in a place like pennsylvania, particularly with trump, has been trying to separate these non-college white male voters for the most part who live in western pennsylvania with the republicans who live in the philadelphia suburbs, people who maybe voted for mitt romney. do you see a way for a person like pat toomey, you said he's running a great campaign, to thread that needle? >> it's been tremendously difficult for pat toomey. we have seen recently he's campaigning in the philadelphia suburb. this is somebody who is championed by the club for growth as a conservative purist. he won an incredible race in 2010 and now he's campaigning in the philadelphia suburbs among moderate democrats, really, and his views on trade, he's a pro-free trader, clash with trump's greatly. he's not -- he hasn't endorsed

trump, said he's not going to make a decision probably until he's in the voting booth, and he's doing this incredibly difficult two-step. i think it's going to be tremendously difficult for him not to look like he is acting like a politician but he's trying, as difficult as he could, and i think it's certainly obvious to voters that he's keeping trump as far away as he can, hasn't appeared with him on the campaign trail and certainly won't between now and election day. but it's a tremendously difficult needle to thread. >> i want to ask a question. you are out on the trail. there was a theory early on, i was one of the people floating it, that says on some level trump really doesn't want to win. it's percolating more and more with his behavior. anything hit a nerve with you there? people thought it was preposterous a couple months ago. a lot of things are adding up that say maybe as crazy as it is, it's possible. >> it seems if there's one thing he doesn't want, it's that he doesn't want to lose. >> i didn't say that. >> i understand. i think they are opposite, right? >> doesn't want to lose but doesn't want the job.

>> one or the other. >> he's in a really tough bind. >> he is, you're right. i think one interesting thread to follow through the next couple of months, i think it's something you are seeing the clinton campaign start to pick up on, robby mook, campaign manager, sent a fund-raising e-mail today essentially saying we don't just need to beat donald trump, we need to blow him out of the water because we need to make sure there isn't anything to this argument that the election was rigged. we are seeing this, talking about pennsylvania, we have seen a fight about election observers in that state. i think that that's something that's starting to bubble to the surface. i do think you're right, trump has acknowledged the possibility that he could lose in a way that's much more direct. i'm not sure if that means that he will ultimately convince us hey, i didn't in fact want to win. i for one having interviewed trump a couple times, would have trouble believing that. >> it seems to me trump's lucky congress is in recess because if the members of congress and all the staff were buzzing around talking every day, they would get themselves into quite a lather over the state of tof th presidential race and how much

impact it could have. how much communication is there between sitting senators and stafrs about what's going on over the recess? >> oh, i think every sitting lawmaker virtually is keeping as for away as possible from the trump campaign as it's in a state of free-fall. but you can be sure that while they're on recess they are being asked about this in their home district. i'm not sure that it's any better. surely they are not in the news as much, but i'm not sure it's any better for these members themselves. i think they are, every member of the republican party is in a tremendously difficult position. >> you go to this question of whether they are taking it for granted. i don't get the sense from talking to folks that hillary clinton plans to take much of a vacation to the extent she goes to the hamptons or martha's vineyard it will be to raise money. >> that's all it is. she is spending the next couple of weeks, she will be in california, all the vacation spots, the hamptons, raising money. that was -- the back half of that e-mail was saying we're behind on this because as you have talked about quite a bit on this show, one of their greatest fears all the way along has been

complacency. complacency in donors and voters, this idea that there might be some moderate republicans who want to go vote down ballot and like rick davis was saying, not vote in the presidential race. they want those people. >> i will ask you both yes or no questions. does hillary clinton seem tired to you? >> last time i was out with her, no. >> does trump seem tired to you? >> more than usual. >> what's your answer to that? hillary clinton tired, yes or no? >> hillary clinton does not seem tired to me. i actually think she has a fair bit of energy. but trump to me, i wouldn't say he seems tired. he has a sort of frenetic way about him. but to me he seems more resigned to a loss than he ever has before and perhaps ever more than he has in his entire life. >> because trump's a first time candidate we sometimes forget some of the normal rules of politics apply to him. every presidential candidate i ever covered has most the most mistakes when they are tired. i think trump's tired. >> he seems tired and down to

me. >> that was true of clinton, too. she made that mistake with fox in the middle of like what was essentially her most intense campaign swing in awhile. that one was exhausting. we were on this long bus tour. typically she's been kind of hitting this one event, one target every day in this very careful way. >> when you watch him on the scripted speeches he feels [ inaudible ]. you just feel it. that tired thing is interesting. when we come back, we will hear more of kasie's tales from the trail. you will not believe what you will hear from her. your car got rear-ended

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[ clock titime. ] you only have so much. that's why we want to make sure you won't have to wait on hold. and you won't have to guess when we'll turn up. because after all we should fit into your life. not the other way around. back now with msnbc political correspondent kasie hunt, who covers the clinton campaign. she recently wrote about the democratic nominee's efforts to win over working class voters, especially the male of the species. kasie stuck around with us to talk about your piece. tell us about the piece you

wrote, the overall thesis of what's going on with hillary clinton and working class men. >> well, we talked a lot obviously about trump's downward slide in the last week but the reality is that if he is going to win this election, if he has any shot of doing it, it's going to be because there are more non-college as the pollsters call them white voters who show up. that's to a certain extent what the clinton campaign has been nervous about and why they have been playing defense in a place like pennsylvania that really has been fool's gold for republicans because if they come out or vote republican in larger numbers than expected, then who knows, you could have a surprise. right now the discussion they could turn ohio and pennsylvania followed by michigan and wisconsin is tricky. if you look at what hillary clinton has been doing on the trail, yes, she is working with her base, they are focused on that, but her events are almost universally aimed at this particular group of people no matter where she is. >> trump goes to a battleground state or not and does a rally in an arena, she has been more focused. take us through the recent photo

ops and why she was there. >> we have a lovely photo display for you starting in johnstown, pennsylvania. this is a wire cutting factory. everything i have to tell you was covered in dirt at this factory. so props to everybody who spent the day setting that up, all the advance people were quite dusty by the end. the point of this, johnstown, pennsylvania is a place that's sort of storied. a lot of people, you say the name of the maplace, you understand the depth of the issues they have had with the economic, really fundamental changes to the economy. it's not just the recession. it's guys like the ones in the photos used to be able to support a family with one job. that's harder now. so she's trying to say hey, we care about you, we are advocating more for you. you saw this with biden, too. the next one, denver, colorado. knotty ties. >> k-n-o-t-t-y. it is where they make ties in america. obviously they trying to hit donald trump there. on the fact that he is outsourcing and making his ties in china.

got a similar thing going on here in las vegas. this is where she's touring the mojave electric company with the head of the national chapter of the contractors association so that of course, a union group. the two things i would tie these photos together is think about the states. denver, colorado, las vegas, nevada, are diverse places where we almost think the electorate's gone because there are so man hispanics yet she's there sending that message to working class whites. >> we have done wire cutting, tie manufacturing and electrical stuff there. >> take a guess what the next one is. i'm sad we don't actually have goods in hand. this is the st. petersburg, florida, three daughters brewery. it is of course family owned. bottoms up. >> what's amazing is trump doesn't have any of these. it's stunning. the only optics of trump is standing in front of a big rally. this is 101 meat and potatoes optic stuff and i said earlier, you don't see him with people, with human beings.

you see him up onstage, period. >> of all the things, i'm sure you experienced this, too, talking to the clinton folks, of all the things they are mystified about, i put this at the top of the list. the fact his events do not drive message normally. he's doing one today in wisconsin, driving a message. for the most part he's doing rallies that don't place him in the context to interact with regular people driving a message. she's obviously meticulously done that since the convention. >> clearly. look, this too also puts her in small group places. they don't have to build big crowds, they are not putting themselves in position where people are comparing apples to apples to these big trump rallies with huge crowds. she is stronger in these settings as well. trump as we saw, they tried a little bit of this in iowa and new hampshire. it just wasn't a setting -- >> doesn't want to do it. he doesn't want to do it. he doesn't even, at the convention he flew back, he don't -- he wants to be in his apartment. bill clinton lived for these moments. hillary is doing it because she has to do it. he just doesn't want to do it. >> look, she has gotten an

incredible amount of experience in this kind of arena from the beginning. remember when everyone was chasing the scooby van she was going to do an event with 15 or so people in iowa. they have i think built up her comfort level in this and this is something that plays very well. you pick up the -- i was picking up the local papers the day after, a lot of times events like this will hand on the front page. donald trump's rallies will as well, but it's a different kind of connection. >> you covered romney last cycle. give people a sense of the scale of her traveling party as compared to mitt romney four years ago. >> it's remarkably different. i think this is one of the things where you are seeing the trump effect magnified. the difference of how both the size of the traveling press corps but also the access that the press is allowed and the reality is, there's in some ways the clinton campaign is saying privately that the standards for trump are different. trump isn't flying the press around on his plane. yes, there's big media contingents but you don't have the day in, day out access. by this point, i would say by labor day when we really hit, he was doing events week in, week out, you are flying around in a

relatively large sized commercial jet that's full in the back with press from front to back including tv crews, getting on and off the plane, up down, up down. that is not happening now. there's a very small group of imbeds that travel everywhere with her. >> otherwise it's a rotating group. thank you very much. >> thank you for letting me hang out. >> up next, homage to a political tv giant. where we explore. protecting biodiversity. everywhere we work. defeating malaria. improving energy efficiency. developing more clean burning natural gas. my job? my job at exxonmobil? turning algae into biofuels. reducing energy poverty in the developing world. making cars go further with less. fueling the global economy. and you thought we just made the gas. ♪ energy lives here. when heartburn comes creeping up on you. fight back with relief so smooth and fast. tums smoothies starts dissolving the instant it touches your tongue. and neutralizes stomach acid at the source.

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issue 12, john mclaughlin. mclaughlin group announced today that john mclaughlin has passed away. he was 89. in our political probability scale of 0 to 10, what were the chances we could count on mclaughlin to entertain us every sunday morning? let's roll the tape. >> here's the host, john mclaughlin. >> issue one. >> on a scale of zero to 10, zero meaning zero doom, ten meaning absolute metaphysical doom, a total wipeout,

annihilation, nothing remaining. >> exit question. which end of penylnia avenue will drive the public policy agenda for the next two years? capitol hill or the white house? the answer is capitol hill. >> what happens next? >> minority party cliff. >> also on the big losers, the tired, the poor, the huddled masses yearning to break free. >> question of political probability scale of zero to 10, zero being zero probability and 10 being metaphysical absolute certitude. >> the klansman is a good candidate. >> what? >> there's a twist. what do you know? what's the administration appointment today? >> bye-bye. >> show of my childhood and the father of almost every political show on television including this one. >> basically cable news in general. probably the first show i ever did. i had big hair. just a nice guy. i remember being incredibly intimidated and i'm sure i said

stupid things. he invented cable news. >> cable news talk shows. just an incredible force. until tomorrow, we'll be back same bat time, same bat channel. thanks for watching. sayonara. >> coming up, "hardball with chris matthews." do or die? let's play "hardball." good evening. i'm chris matthews in washington. 83 days shy of the election and donald trump needs a game changer. forget the talk of resets and pivots. he needs a new fact that makes it all different. a new nbc poll has clinton with a nine-point lead. she's at 50, he's down at 41 and the trend is downward. the candidates were running even before the conventions but clinton has pulled away and is holding her lead. according to the latest monmouth poll, trump is also behind in florida where clinton leads trump again by nine