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>> the advice that he gets solicited, unsolicited what they need is on style. what you have seen in the last few days and i think it's going to go down as one of the best weeks in the trump campaign to date because back-to of the back speeches, policy speeches. >> every attempt to pivot the campaign and get him in a more serious mode has totally failed. i think what we're seeing is him doubling down on his smallest, most divisive, most hateful inci incliinations and more of the same and probably going to be worst. >> probably going to be worse. i don't think that's possible. we'll see. welcome back to "morning joe." it's thursday august 18th. we have on set mark halperin and political correspondent kasie hunt and president on the council of foreign relations richard haas and katty kay and white house correspondent for the associated press julie pace

and political reporter for "washington post" robert costa. bob, let's go to you first. talk about the trump shakeup. you see kellyanne talking out there and you're like, okay, this is sort of a new face for the trump campaign. and a new approach. a more main stream republican approach. more main stream approach strategically. and then you read the stories about stephen bannon and you think, oh, boy. is this going to be even more of the same? what are you hearing from campaign insiders about which direction this campaign is really going? >> good morning. yesterday at trump tower you had what kellyanne conway is calling the new core four and begin the new phase which means rick gaines and paul manifort met with kellyanne conway the pollster and the head of breitbart and this core four group is going to be taking

trump forward over the next 80 something days. what you really see from bannon is a low profile. he's taking stock of what's going on at trump tower and you have to think of bannon as a creative director. according to people who spoke to him yesterday. how he could try to light a fire under trump's campaigns when it comes to populism and nationalism over the coming weeks. >> mark halperin, what are you hearing about the shakeup? do we expect bannon to be quiet operating, strategic side of the operation and kellyanne conway being more the face of the campaign? >> she will have to juggle if she's going to be on the plane, hard to be a surrogate. as you suggested before, she's been their best surrogate in part because she's a great communicator and also bridges the gap. the "wall street journal" editorial page and grassroots activists. she is going to be a public figure and a huge figure in the

campaign. i really don't think it's clear. bannon was not visible yesterday. i think if bannon plays the role of trying to solve message discipline and a message focused on change and getting trump better press coverage, i think he could be a valuable addition. but he is, obviously, a lightning rod for criticism and plenty of enemies and galvanize the never move trump movement in a big way. >> we saw yesterday even conservatives coming out and saying he was like the worst human being on the face of the earth or something close to that. it wasn't a compliment. i'm wondering if what's the response from hillary clinton's camp, are they excited that they brought this breitbart guy on? >> they they had a conference call yesterday. they are clearly focused more on bannon, less on kellyanne conway. no mention of her whatsoever. bannon indicates all of these tendencies and mark's point about trying to focus this on

hillary clinton and josh greene talked earlier about how bannon is very much steeped in that. i think republicans, establishment conservative grassroots, you name it, think that's the solution for donald trump. i don't care if donald duck is running the campaign, said henry barber. if he can make this about hillary clinton's record, that's what's going to win this election. >> clinton cash is, if you did a case study of conservative efforts to get the so-called main stream media to cover the clinton's background. clinton cash is their greatest success story. >> yeah. it really did change the discussion on the national level for months and, actually, eventually, led into the e-mail discussion. and has made campaigning difficult for hillary clinton from day one. >> if that's what bannon is there to do, that is a great hire. >> if that's what he does behind closed doors and doesn't get on tv and just does that, then it may be an effective choice if

kellyanne is the face of the campaign. julie pace, talk about what you've learned about the campaign shakeup and how it's impacting the clinton campaign. >> well, from talking to people who are close to trump and have conversations with him on a regular basis, there were two points of frustration that have been mounting for him this such summer. one is that he really did feel that there were people he is not particularly close to personally trying to push him in a direction that he didn't really want to go. reaching out to more republicans in washington, moderating his tone. and then even when he felt like he was doing that, he didn't see the right results. he felt from republicans. he didn't see republicans rallying around him, for example, during his controversy with the khan family. so, this is trump basically sending a message that he is going to go forward through the fall, win or lose, with people that he feels comfortable with and with a style and an approach that he feels comfortable with. and i think to a point i heard you making in the last hour, it's not as though donald trump

doesn't have messages that fit the mood of the country right now and fit this electorate, it's just he has been unable to really focus on them. i think that is the pivot, if you will, that they're hoping to see from these staff changes. >> katty kay, what, what are we hearing out of both trump and the hillary clinton campaigns? >> well, from what we heard yesterday the division of labor and kellyanne conway being the person out in front seems to pea what the model is going to be. here's kellyanne conway speaking specifically about this issue on how to message against hillary clinton. >> those are republicans saying i didn't necessarily like the last couple weeks and i want you to know that. i like when you take on hillary clinton. there are two people you need to take on. hillary clinton most of the time once in a while barack obama. if you want to throw the lobbyists or the eliteists, go ahead. this is like a tennis match.

you look across the net and keep lobbying with her. they say focus on her because she is very real. we should probably also talk about her fundamental numbers. she has a reverse gender gap. doing so poorly with men almost everywhere. they don't like her, they don't trust her and they don't want her to be president of the united states and commander in chief. it is very much in our sights. >> i think it's fair to say that donald trump has shown us who he is. he can hire and fire anybody he wants from his campaign. they can make him read new words from a teleprompter. but he is still the same man who insults goldstar families, demeans women, mocks people with disabilities and thinks he knows more about isis than our generals. there is no new donald trump. this is it. >> and i guess that's the problem, joe.

is the issue for the trump campaign the message or is it the messenger? is the messenger going to keep stepping on the message? whatever they try to do, it's hard to imagine over the next three months that donald trump isn't going to be donald trump at moments with or without a teleprompter. >> this campaign is all about donald trump and it has been since the beginning. whether he can get out of the way and get the message of change that so many americans could find attractive and could actually vote for. and why, if change is the issue that's driving the electorate this year, donald trump should be the candidate. but like you said, katty. he just hasn't been able to stay out of his own way and we have polls that show that and show why this reset was so necessary. >> it's fascinating the latest polling shows closing window for trump to close those key swing states. a new quinnipiac poll shows hillary clinton leading by ten. add in third-party candidates

her lead there is eight with gary johnson polling at 16%. in virginia, clinton leads by 12. reaching 50% to trump's 38. and in iowa, clinton leads by 3%. that's inside the margin of error. let's look at the rust belt. that's the area of the country that we know trump is trying to take away from democrats. in michigan, a fox detroit 2 and a new poll in indiana shows trump leading 47 to 36. those battleground states, though, they're kind of disappearing speeches at the moment. >> they really are. mark halperin, ten points in michigan and ten points in pennsylvania, ohio getting more difficult. nine points in florida. it is, if there were ever a time for the reset, now is a time for the reset. donald trump just cannot afford another bad week or two. >> no. >> the entire campaign he has to play perfect, he has to basically pitch a perfect game

from now through november. >> he's got tawinttoawin a lot cycles. you know, their electoral college path involves ohio, pennsylvania and florida. two of those three and currently, the reality is, they're doing a little bit better in ohio and florida than some other places. if they can put those two building blocks in place, again, in the short term, more support from republicans than they currently have and maybe the new team can do that. more support for men then they currently have. >> bob costa, what is morale in the trump campaign? we heard it was suicidal several weeks ago. does this change the attitude right now? >> bannon is, he's an intriguing selection by trump because you get the sense there is hope within trump tower on this front that bannon, in a way, blurs the line of the normal general election campaign because he's not a partisan figure. he's not going to come in and push the republican line.

if they really have a chance at all in some of these crucial swing states and reaching out to the labor vote, the disengaged voter who is not really a democrat or a republican. and bannon, as much as he comes out of the right wing, he's someone who ideological in a nonrepublican way. he's against illegal immigration and very much for this economic populism and that's what they're going to try to help to rouse in the working class communities in swing states. it's a long shot, but that's the shot. >> of course, julie pace, you also have the guy that sent people to swarm paul ryan's home. and i can tell you, there are not a lot of things that i would keep with for a very long time in politics. i always try not to make it personal, but that would be one of them. if i'm paul ryan, i'm thinking, are you kidding me? i endorse you and it just keeps getting worse. >> if you do a quick google search of paul ryan and breitbart you can get a sense of what their take is on the

republican leadership. it's not very positive it. in some ways this is a man who is very in line with donald trump, but just as much out of line and out of step with republican establishment leaders and what that signals about republican voters who fall more into that moderate, establish, business-minded camp. does he bring anything to the table to help trump bring those voters onboard? as we talk about the map and we look at those polls, not just the independents and conservative democrats that trump is struggling with. it is really the republican party that he needs to get on board first. >> katty kay, a lot of international news that we have here on the front of the "financial times" talks about russian tanks are now mounting forces on the ukrainian border. "wall street journal," of course, is having stories about military bases in iran that the russians are now using and also this story getting a lot of

attention. iran cash held until the prisoners, u.s. prisoners were released. you know, we've got those new stories and we broke the in case of emergency glass and got the president of the cfr to come over and talk about all three of them. let's talk about these concerning international stories. >> let's start with that iran one. speculation continues to grow around the timing of the $400 million payment the u.s. provided to iran. that came around the same time that american prisoners were released back in january. the "wall street journal" reports that the change was part of the tightly scripted timeline pegged to the prisoners' safe return. the paper citing u.s. officials reports that the flight carrying the cash to iran took off only after swiss plane carrying three americans departed from turan. they claim the payment was not ransom because the u.s. government owed iran the money after an arms deal fell through back in the '70s.

the $400 million was one part of a $1.7 billion settlement. i guess, richard, this is a question of how you, maybe it's a question of -- >> come on, it's a ransom favor. >> don't give them the payment until they released the hostages. we owed them the money anyway. everyone is saying america is paying ransom for hostages. >> technically it was a deal and that's why the money had to go back. the tight orchestration, it couldn't be made to look worse. i don't think it was cash for release, but it end up giving people -- >> what do you mean you don't think it was cash for release? >> i think it was properly, i think the administration was right. this is money that was owed iran. but the fact that you have a front page story in "wall street journal" enough orchestration that the tactics of how the money was gone clearly fit in to some other scenario in terms o

timing of the planes. >> to paraphrase paul ryan, this epitomizes cash ransom for hostage release. the very nature of it does. we're holding $400 million in cash until you release our hostages, right? >> but the cash was not there to get the hostages released. prisoners released. it wasn't as though this cash wasn't owed. that's the point. but tactics of how it was arranged could not look worse. >> every government does this. and i don't think, you know, the obama administration is going to admit what it did in diplomatic circles this may look like one thing or be described one way and people will see this for what it is even though this is what governments do. even our government, the significance of it for the presidential race is, the republicans have to get obama, president obama's arupproval rating down. this is one of the things they're going to talk about to bring that about.

>> is it legal to pay $400 million to hold $400 million on a plane and say, in effect, as we did tathem. i don't care. you release our prisoners and you get $400 million. but you're not getting the $400 million until our prisoners are released. >> this is money the united states owed iran. >> owed but hadn't paid for a long time. >> even before that it was possibly part of the hope the administration had for some kind of improvement normalization of relations with iran after the signing of a year ago. >> julie pace, you're a white house correspondent. what does the white house say about the ransom payment they paid? >> i think the initial story from "wall street journal" they were a bit baffled by just because the payment had been out there. it was known that this money was being paid to iran. i think now that it's clear that the money was actually held until the prisoners were released, there's going to be a

little more ankest in the west wing today. but, you know, look, this gets to another question that comes up so often when we talk about americans being held overseas. oftentimes you hear people say, why doesn't the white house and the government pay ransom? why don't we engage and negotiate with terrorists when americans are being held. you hear this from families of people who are being held quite frequently. this is part of a broader debate, not just about iran, but our policy towards americans who are being held by rogue terror groups and also governments that we're not friendly with. >> katty, let's talk about what's happening with russia. they move under to syria first. donald trump welcomed them with open arms and now defending their use of an iranian air base. >> russia is defending its use of an iranian air base as the launching point for strikes in syria. in a statement a russian defense ministry said the u.s. state department should "check their

logic and knowledge on the issue." meanwhile, the state department spokesman says they are investigating if this violated a recent u.n. security resolution and it's easy to become numb to the imnls of war, not this one. a particularly difficult video from the aftermath of an airstrike on ahelpo. video shows a 5-year-old boy being carried out of a building struck in an air raid. he is carried out to an ambulance where he sits in a daze. that image going viral at the moment. understandably, you can see why. you see it and very difficult not to think about all those people suffering in syria right now. >> katty, looking at that image and you think about the recriminations after rowanda and after the balkans and you sit and wonder, not only how does the united states government sit back and do nuthing and we have done nothing but direct knowledge. again, i remember.

unrolling, 20,000 dead, 40,000 dead, 80,000 dead. 100,000 dead. 150,000 dead. 200,000 dead. and all along people would come on the set and say, it's just too difficult. we can't do anything. what is the purpose of being the last best hope for a dying world? what is the purpose of nato? what is the purpose of the united nations? what is the purpose of international organizations if you cannot step in and stop this mass slaughter in syria, which continues unabated? >> we can't say we didn't know, right? >> right. >> we cannot say we don't know what's happening right now every day in ahelpahelpoo. richard, i mean, i don't know what you think. i think this is still the single biggest failing in terms of foreign policy of the obama administration. >> absolutely. it shows, katty, what you don't

do can be as consequential of what you do do? also shows there is no such thing as an international community, no matter how many times people invoke the phrase. it also shows that john kerry's diplomacy with moscow isn't working and the united states will decide to take the fight to some extent to syria. that would mean using american cruise missiles or aircraft to keep syrian aircraft on the ground. we've got to make that decision because all this diplomacy isn't working. we have to make it more difficult for the syrians and for their russian friends to kill innocent people. the death toll now is, what? 400,000 people, 500,000 people. more than half the country and the population is no longer living in their homes. probably one out of every four of the refugees in the world right now is syrian. so, this is, this is a major, major, not just failure strategically, but morally on

the united states and really on the world. >> i think, too, this, we talked so much about how donald trump has failed the intelligence briefings and the way he approached the intelligence community. everything they just walked through whether it's that ransom payment or what has gone on in syria. this should have represented and did for a long time the major opportunity for republicans who had a pretty, you know, an argument that was resonating with swing voters and democrats and saying that the obama administration has failed and we need to make america great, again. that resignated with voters precisely because of things like this that part of the trump's campaign challenge is going to be trying to turn around. >> the speech the other day g caught in that contradictions he of where the obama administration had gotten it wrong in libya, iraq, what have you. then his own list of to-dos wouldn't have changed the basics on the ground. >> he'll criticize bob costa and he'll criticize what barack

obama and he'll criticize america from behind for the last eight years and then what he proposes is doing even less. letting the russians take care of it. >> because of trump's outsize personality. one of the most undercovered parts of this, the final debate. the final lap of theco way retreating from the hawkish internationalism that defined it since ronald reagan. you see this reluctance to become engaged abroad when it comes to crises like syria to perhaps rely on russia or other countries to take the lead and i think this is really reflective of whoever wins the white house. they're dealing with the republican party at its core that is changing in a fundamental way away from its tenants during the george w. bush and reagan era. >> unfortunately, not just the republican party but what we have done as a nation for well over 100 years. we went to europe in 1917 to end

world war and we did a year later. and, obviously, we were the indispensable power in world war ii, at least on the western front bringing that to an end. but you look at what's happened over the past several years in syria. and i'll quote samantha power, the u.n. secretary and her book, a problem from "a problem from hell." that's what this is. a problbringing terrorism to eu. bring terrorism to the united states. but just morally causing an extraordinary amount of anguish and pain and suffering and death. and the united states has remained silent. europe has remained silent. the eu has remained silent. the united nations has remained

silent. the world community has remained silent while this suffering continues unabated. we will look back on this and we will have a lot of people asking why we abandoned the people of syria and the world the way we did over the past eight years. hhis stellar notebooks will last through june. get back to great.

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>> after the surge, when al qaeda was in ashes entering barack obama and hillary clinton. remember, we weren't even in afghanistan by this time. barack obama went into afghanistan creating another problem. >> you're saying barack obama took the country into afghanistan post-2009. is that what you're saying? >> what i'm saying the policies of barack obama and hillary clinton -- that was obama's war, yes. >> by the way, under those eight years before obama came along, we didn't have any successful,

radical islamic terrorist aacin the united states. they all started when clinton and obama got into office. >> you say it's not a shakeup, but you guys are down. and it makes sense -- >> says who? >> polls. most of them. all of them. >> says who? >> polls. i just told you. i answered your question. >> okay, which polls? >> all of them. >> okay. and your question is. >> what did these people do before they went on tv for trump? >> i think there's a lot of people who are only starting their careers quite late in life. >> on tv. >> live tv is like going down in a shark tank, joe. anything can happen. >> you should be able to answer

the question that my 8-year-old boy could answer like about afghanistan. >> to be fair, your son is very bright. >> he is bright. no doubt about that. with us is author of "new york times" columnist and msnbc contributor. and i've got to ask you, go ahead and say your last name because you mispronounced it last time. take your time. >> did i get it? >> closer. much closer. >> you hit the second syllable a tad hard. >> i didn't have enough coffee. >> all three equal emphasis. >> like halperin. >> let's go because we try to go a little bit deeper here on "morning joe." let's go to a guy that, you know, is a founder and editor of a website fox.com. and we're going to ask him this question. ezra, who is president when the

afghanistan war began in late 2001? >> i'm not allowed to call a friend? >> no, you're not. >> start with something easier. >> it is george w. bush. >> look at that! >> is there a chart? >> look at that! >> you could actually chart american troops in afghanistan over different presidencies. but this is a real problem. it's very funny to watch these people. but this is a very amateurish campaign. so much of how we think about politics is in two presidential candidates. >> ezra, your tie is very blue. >> is it coming through very blue on tv sph. >> no, i'm just saying. the blueness of your tv is obvious how amateurish this campaign is. the question is, how in the world do you have spokes people go out that don't even know who was president when we went into afghanistan after 9/11?

it's mind boggling. >> a basically level of quality control and competence not happening in the donald trump campaign. this is a reason, i actually really wonder how bad as trump is doing in the polls if he's not going to underperform them quite dramatically. you have a campaign building right now no serious get out the vote operation. embedded in our view of how the polling works, it predicts and what happens on election day some kind of rough parody and how good they are mobilizing the people who support them. it's interesting to watch the spokespeople, but media something trump cares about. he doesn't care about florida field offices. however bad that's going. the get out the vote operation is, from what i'm told, going worse. that could have a real effect on election day. >> that's two or three percentage points. i always talk about my conversations with david axlerod leading into the 2012 campaign. david told me this is how much we're going to win by in ohio and this is how much we're going

to win by nationally. he knew all the voters would come out. they had an amazing get out the vote operation and it makes a huge difference. i think if he wants to win, he better be up one or two percentage points in most of those states on election day because he's going to get blown out when it comes to the get out the vote operation. launched a new election index called the trump tax. ezra, there are several candidates, i would guess that kelly ayotte would be one of them. ron johnson would be another that are suffering from this trump tax. explain it. >> so, you can, political scientists have created a lot of what we call forecasting models for elections. if you know some pretty basic information, which party controls the white house and what the president's approval rating is and what the economy looks like, you can predict elections it's pretty strange

with real accuracy. we work with a team of political scientists to create one and the prediction is that in 2016 republicans should have a slight edge. it should be about a 50.9 victory for the republican candidate. if you go back to polling in march, marco rubio was looking like that. he was leading hillary clinton by four points and john kasich was leading by seven. the difference between that 50.9% and donald trump's two-party share of the polling right now is what we are calling the trump tax. right now as you put up there, 5.8 percentage points. that's how much donald trump appears to be costing the republican party in the polls over where we would expect them to be performing. donald trump is imposing a pe l penalty in the election for picking me. >> you wrote a post on medium, i am what's wrong with america. something that i actually, i've got a bumper sticker. i just want there to be any

confusion when i'm driving around town that i am what is wrong with america. >> why did you write your post? >> i was here at this table last week and tried with the largest of hearts to say, whatever you think of donald trump, we need to have empathy for his supporters. and the kind of people who are feel this possessed and feel shutout enough of the conversation to be drawn to things that people don't think are a reasonable part of american politics. and i got a lot of nice notes from trump people afterwards. a guy said, thanks for feeling our pain. i just retired from manufacturing, et cetera. but this one guy named james wrote back to me and he said, you know, you're everything that's wrong with america and he threw out everything that is part of the trump mix. he called me a domesticated male. i was reading the e-mail when i

was feeding my son. >> were you wearing an apron? >> my son was. >> you teach your son to be the same way? >> yes, i do. i pulled his hair up, too. >> and then he goes on to say, you and people are what is wrong with america. you are at a table like this. what is wrong with america is you have a voice. you came here and you need -- >> the irony is i didn't come here. i did come here from cleveland, i where was born. >> james, though a white man -- >> how hard was it to get a passport coming from cleveland? >> it was not easy. the passport office burned down on the lake. james turns out to have been born in japan, the child of missionaries. >> yes. >> james is telling me immigrants should come to a place and assimilate but james' family is missionaries who go to places specifically to change those places. so, james and i had an exchange. >> what did you learn from this exchange? >> i think that the grievance

out there, there is a lot of projection going on in this kind of supporter. and there's a feeling of, i think, a very vague but meaningful feeling of not understanding the new world that you live in. that could be a job that is lost. that could be the changing complexion of your town. but then that gets inverted and it's being amverted because trump is helping people invert it in that way. so people who are actually not responsible for the things that are hurting you. there are real things hurting people and real crimes. but real leadership is actually solving the problems. >> you know, alex coarsen wanted me to thank you for giving your entire ted talk right here. very good. you know, i want to go to mike allen in a second, but i want to follow up on that because, ezra, there has been just a complete blind spot among many elites and i'll include those around this

table on why people support donald trump. and you don't have to go to kansas to figure out why people support donald trump. you can go to staten island. you can, i always say just go west. or go west of niacand you find a lot of donald trump supporters. a lot of educated people explaining why they're doing this. one thing "new york times" and i don't know if fox did anything on this. i thought it was remarkable and it played out in data. that you can look at the communities most impacted by free trade over the past 30 years. and there is a heavy, heavy, heavy concentration of either trump supporters or bernie sanders supporters that sort of the americans that have felt left behind by globalization and technology or more likely to be drawn to these two candidates. >> i'll disagree with that piece, actually. there is a study that came out

about a week ago that is very surprising to me. it got covered at "new york times" and gallup which has been polling people on trump support in the last year now took 87,000 observations that had geographic data linked to them and looked at where trump support was strongest and then looked at what was happening in those communities. what was really interesting is you did not see a linkage between exposure to trade or immigration. >> did "the times" get that completely wrong? >> i can't say. i don't know this piece you're talking about. i don't want to say you got it wrong. but this was conventional wisdom. what gallup was able to release was the biggest data gap. 87,000. what they found is that trump supporters are not poorer than average. they are not living in these areas that are heavily influenced by immigration or trade. they are living in areas, though, where whites have higher

mortality and areas that are more -- this goes to the point that you're making, joe. the media has done something is sanitize trump support. to say it's all economic anxiety and it's trade and these things that we know how to cover sympathetically and respectfully. that's definitely part of it. but it is also concerns about immigration and concerns about changes in america and concerns that are a little bit harder to cover and not economic and are going to need to figure out how to have a conversation about. >> okay. i will send, i'll make sure i send over "new york times" piece to you. i thought it was very compelling. can't wait to look at that study, as well. let's go to washington, right now. from politico mike allen. you're looking at why the clinton campaign is sending tim kaine to traditionally red states. why are they doing it and is it to put team trump on the defensive and is it working?

>> sure. this is psychological war fare. tim kaine alone among the three nominees having fun. not just the harmonica. we saw him yesterday with the butter cow and holding up the pork chop. but today he's doing something very mischieves. this afternoon he's going to be in the deep red territory of iowa. you can have a photo with him for 5,000 bucks, cheap seats for 1,000. then for dinner tonight, he's going down to liz jeany country to wyoming for dinner. 15,000 bucks there. joe, this is to force republicans to spend money in these red states. we've had the clinton campaign gearing up in utah, arizona, georgia. but, also, to get in their heads. to remind them that hillary clinton has the luxury of a big map. >> mike allen, by the way, liz cheney won her primary, right? >> she did. so, it's going to be and we saw

a picture of her with her dad. she's going to hold her dad's congressional seat. >> oh, wow, how exciting. mike allen, thank you so much. greatly appreciate it. ezra, thank you, as well. still ahead on "morning joe" talk about the role of trump's son-in-law jared crushner. we're also going to show pictures from my first campaign because, you know, mike allen was talking about a harmonica and a pork chop. i mean, that's what i did. ge is an industrial company that actually builds world-changing machines. machines that can talk to each other digitally. hello? they don't talk to each other like that, ricky. shhhh, you'll anger it. he looks a little ticked off now. wiback like it could used to?

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coming up, he made millions before getting into politics and a troubled relationship with vladimir putin. silvio berlusconi and donald trump. is putin playing trump like he played berlusconi? "morning joe" continues. isaac hou has mastered gravity defying moves to amaze his audience. great show. here you go. now he's added a new routine. making depositing a check seem so effortless. easy to use chase technology, for whatever you're trying to master. isaac, are you ready? yeah. chase. so you can. what knee pain?? what sore elbow? advil liqui-gels make pain a distant memory nothing works faster stronger or longer what pain?

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reports of donald trump's ties to vladimir putin and former executive director and grand talent wmd commission dr. farka and michael krally who is out with a new piece entitled "is putin playing trump like he did berlusconi?" the courtships between trump and the former italian leader. that is the question. do you have this former kgb

agent playing these billionaires. >> these are larger than life billionairs who have expensive tastes, politically incorrect, like to be outrageous. this story actually originated to somebody who reached out to me and said hey, you should check this out. you go back and look and there's clear alarm from the u.s. embassy in roam. they are vacationing tonight, maybe going to late-night parties. it is a little murky and he is towing the putinli line and it a lot like trump is talk now, complaining about nato expansion, u.s. policies in that region. so this official said to me basically what michael morel wrote, it looks like it could be calculated trying to flatter these guys egos and get them in.

>> i wonder like putinkind of taking in. if someone feels to meddle, what does it say about their perception of american power and efficacy today? >> obviously putin sees a real open here. we have this man who is clearly very prone to flattery. it is a huge weakness. i think he sees an opening. i don't think he thinks the united states of america is weak. he is very well aware it is the strongest economic power. if he can find a way to control the u.s. government then he'll do it. >> what would you say are the

major accomplishments of the obama-kerry foreign policy? >> when we ridicule the russia reset it clearly went badly wrong. they did get the reduction treaty. it has gotten rid of war heads. there is stuff that had to do with that. the iran nuclear deal required russia's cooperation. there have been a lot of problems since then. t there are some people who say you can't have all out cold war with russia. we do need to cooperate with them on some of these issues. >> quick question for you on what donald trump had to say about the intelligence community. how did you read trump's recent comments on that?

>> i read it to say essentially i don't care what those seasoned analysts, those highly experienced people are going to tell me, i make up my own mind. he said i will disregard what they are telling me. our intelligence on russia is quite good. i think he should listen to our intelligence on russia. it is alarming in terms of intent these days. he won't like what she is hearig because manafort and page and others with dealings dealing with russia going back maybe a decade or more, these people are giving him a different line on russia and he sees thing very simplistically as a man who wanted to do business in moscow. he has not paid attention to what russia's intentions are and how they effect things.

>> thank you for being with us. donald trump's campaign manager said debate prep is begin thg weekend. they have someone playing hillary clinton. they wouldn't say how. your missionary man saying it could be you. >> i can't disclose whether it is or not. >> your son wears the -- >> yeah, in this relationship. now she writes mostly in emoji. soon, she'll type the best essays in the entire 8th grade. today, the only spanish words he knows are burrito and enchilada. soon, he'll take notes en espanol. get back to great with the right gear. from the place with the experts. office depot officemax. gear up for school. gear up for great. you made with your airline credit card.these purchases hold on...you only got double miles on stuff you bought from that airline?

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i'm hillary clinton, and i approve this message. michael hayden: if he governs consistent with some of the things he said as a candidate, i would be very frightened. gillian turner: he's been talking about the option of using a nuclear weapon against our western european allies. max boot: this is not somebody who should be handed the nuclear codes. charles krauthammer: you have to ask yourself, do i want a person of that temperament controlling the nuclear codes? and as of now, i'd have to say no. [bill o'reilly sighs] and as of now, i'd have to say no.

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august. i don't get it. the first day after labor day. >> that way you get to go to camp, joe. >> yes. speaking of camp, she is fashion camp somewhere. kasie hunt and former democratic -- >> we'll mention it about that. >> and the man that taught me brevity is the soul of wit. washington anchor for bbc american world news and national correspondent josh green. i think you wrote he was the worst human being on the planet.

>> that's a para phrase. >> i wrote he was the most dangerous political operative. i haven't wrote if he is most dangerous to republicans or democratics or maybe both. i have said that he is the distilled essence of donald trump in a nut shshell. >> and that is surgeoncertainly reset. i think a lot of people have thought she would be very good on the plane talking to donald trump and moderating some of the sharper edges of the message. it doesn't sound like that's the case as doug bannon. >> he is trumpier than trump and

i didn't think that was possible. it was a red day on the calendar yesterday. donald trump went without holding a rally or speaking to the press with the exception of a pretaped interview. he held a round table to discuss what police departments can do in fighting terrorism. the topic that drove the 2016 conversation was to restructure the campaign. as reported yesterday trump elevated kelly ann conway and added steve bannon. the campaign wide mem more said the changes made for an exciting day for team trump going onto clarify i remain the campaign chairman. in his new role steve will bring a business-like day-to-day leadership that is reflective of our leader, mr. trump and we

promote an already important team member who will provide senior leadership on the road with the traveling campaign. trump staff reportedly is embracing the shake up as to what we see as teleprompter guided. if you're watching cable news shows you could make the case. it was the best morning for us in weeks. mr. conway said they would keep the focus on clinton to win back republicans. >> some of the rot voter attrit among republicans. hillary clinton most of the time, barack obama. if you want to throw the lobbiests in there go ahead. you look across the net and keep lotting at her. you don't boo the crowd. they have saying focus on her

because she is very weak. >> we should also probably talk about her fundamental numbers. she as ve verreverse gender gap. they don't trust her that never gets covered but it is very much in our sights. >> that sounded like harold ford. i'm a little off kilter this morning. that sounds like what you would want a republican campaign manager to say in the middle of a republican campaign. that's just such a shock. she also spoke truth which is hey, if you're on the court don't shout at the crowd. don't get mad at your own teammates, lob the ball back across the court. >> trying to keep him focused.

i don't agree with kelly on a lot of thing and putting her in a position to make big decisions is a positive. people have to recognize the professionalization we should would happen earlier is happening. >> it seems to me if she has a hand in his message it is going to be a big plus up based on what we heard right there and what we have seen over the past 20 year ws hs with her. >> yeah. it is rare an operative has credibility on the right as well as with establishment republicans, which she also does. she also said she did speak truth to trump but she did it without calling him out for a

mistake which is a very narrow line to walk and i think very important if you want to succeed inside the trump campaign. >> if you look at labor day what do you two think would be on the trump to do list to get done? what can you accomplish in the next two weeks? >> things joe has laid out on this show many times before, i'll echo some of those points. mrs. clinton can't be trusted because she is an insider. one of the things i worry most about is his foreign policy experience and the kind of people he will keep around him and the kind of things he will say in the middle of a big national foreign security debacle. if he continues to project like he did this morning i think it will reassure him. if he allows that kind of

advice -- >> he absolutely loved richard haas. it doesn't help when he says he doesn't trust the intell -- >> kellyanne probably didn't write that. >> yeah. he has to stop that. >> that's the kind of comment that makes the refenm on him. policymakers deserve correspondence. intelligence speaks truth power and power does -- >> so it would be better so say hey, we have the better that than any country could have in the world but even they can't make things better if you have people elected and people running stateru running the state department that don't know what they are doing. >> u.s. intelligence officials said hey, be careful.

here is the mess that's going to follow. there is ton of information that would show policymakers were explicitly warned -- >> iraq, libya or getting out of iraq as quickly as possible. >> they are not the enmy. >> we are trying to figure out what happened with this trump campaign. kellyanne makes it sound like it's a reset but steve bann bannonmak bannonmabanno bannon makes it sound like it's much of the same. >> you have got a new story about this morning about whether bannon revive the campaign.

it says the shake-up is an om nouns development for republican elected officials alarmed at trump's collapse and the effect he could have on downballot races across the country. making life difficult for his successor, paul ryan, last fall, at bannon's inis sis tense -- >> so you're saying he uses a light touch? >> and props apparently. >> and is not afraid to go people's home where they have children. >> clearly not. which is it going to be? is it going to be the kellyanne implying you'll get rid of the cia and attacking the media or much more of a fire throwing in

the mold that donald trump likes being. >> it looks like a good-cop, bad-cop scenario there! yeah. you a little white angel telling him to straighten up and fly right. then on the other shoulder you have -- >> yeah. you're the first to call paul manafort -- >> yeah, i think manafort is far from perfect. >> there is no doubt that he is telling him to unleash his inner wild man and go after the people. bannonhas one tool and that's a ledge hammer. if you listen to him talk to

other mainstream republicans he has an outright and open discussion. >> so what are the -- is he a libertarian or nationalist? what are his politics? what drives him? >> he believes with on an uprising. he is tight with the former leader. he believes in trumpism that predates and will extend beyond donald trump. >> would he agree with donald tru trump's statement about mexicans? would he support the muslim ban? is he that sort of nationalist? is it racially tinged? >> if you remember trump's very first tripe visited the

border. bannon organized that trichp. it should terrify republicans that are on the ticket who are try to go win more elections. it will be made more difficult if steve bannon is the guy shouting in trump's ear. >> who says? >> i say. >> who says? >> is that what he said yesterday? who says? we'll share that in a second. before we do that let's show them who says with the latest round of polls. >> the latest wave of swing state polling confirms states that have been very much in play for states for recent years are increasingly slipping away from donald trump. the new poll shows hillary clinton leading by 10 points, 49% to 39%.

when you add in third party candidates her lead is 8 with libertarian johnson polling at 16%. clinton leads by 12. when you add in third party candidates johnson polling at 12%. let's take a look at the rest belt, an area of the country that trump is trying to take away from democrats. in michigan a fox 2 detroit poll shows trump behind 10 points. take a look at this. >> you say it's not a shake-up but you guys are down and it makes sense that there would --

>> says who? says who? >> most of them. all of them. >> says who? >> polls. i just told you. i answered your questions. >> okay. which polls? >> all of them. >> okay. and your question is? >> you got to respect the guy. who says? >> he wanted data. >> she gave him data. i liked her answer. >> which ones? all of them. okay. who says? cue says. michigan double digits, double dumg dum digits in all of the rest belt states. it is looking bad in all of

these polls. >> the trump campaign shows their race closer. they can narrow the gap if they get more republicans and more men to be for trump than are currently there. the big zegest problem is media narrative. they are getting hammered every day. polls drive so much of the kof ra coverage that you can't blame them. in my career i have never seen such consistency in public polls. >> and we have to talk about natural tight ning. the -- tightening. you have seen the gap widen a great deal. donald trump has had two, three, four of the worst weeks he has

had. there is going -- we know hillary is going to do something, say something. bill has done it. lying about e-mails again and that's when he is like okay. maybe he is not as crazy as i think. there is going to be a natural tight ning en tightening. you have seen a lot of campaigns before. i just don't think hillary just rides off into the sunset. i think it tightens up. >> and trump is a better match for the moment. that's two-thirds of americans think the country is heading in the wrong direction. he represents radical change. she an outsider. there are doubts about hill rhode island -- hillary. i think people are saying the outcome is preor dadaned.

>> a time could not match a candidate better than they match trumps. the times could not be more misaligned if that's even a word with hillary clinton wlor, who e establishment. >> i agree with mark, the public polling is remarkably consistent. when you're not at 50, the poll at 50 that say i agree with him. it is hard to see him overcome. i think there's a group of people who are embarrassed that say they are for trump. when you're not there tha worr. that's where the focus has to be. >> and you have been out on the campaign trail for over a year. you have seen it firsthand, the call for change, the call for change. >> and i started out covering republicans and i spent several

months -- no one ever expected 70 something socialists would amount such a challenge. the fact that she didn't have another opponent speaks to the depth of her establishment roots. but that sort of undercurrent took them a while to pick up on in the clinton campaign. i think they are at the point where they understand it and trump's self-inflicted wounds. that moment could turn against her because of some event we can't see here sitting here today. >> and it brings us to a segment we have been doing since i think at 4 ought 4. >> and all of the kids love this. this edition of great moments in

surrogate malpractice. >> after the surge when al qaeda was in ashes entering barack obama and hillary clinton, remember, we weren't even in afghanistan. barack obama went into afghanistan -- >> so you're saying barack obama took us into afghanistan post -- >> what i'm saying that was obama's, war, yes. >> by the way, under those eight years before obama came along we didn't have any successful radical islamic terrorist attack in the united states. they started when clinton and obama got into office. >> you say it's not a shake up -- says who? >> most of them.

>> says what? >> most of them. all of them. >> says who? >> polls. i just told you. i answered your questions. >> which polls? >> all of them? >> okay. and your question is? >> it does remind me of that question at the end of the verdict one of paul newman's final moment where the witness is on the stand after the doctor and hospitals are all conspired against her. she asked who are these men? who are these men? where do they find these men? richard haas. everybody knows it was the m martians that invaded

afghanistan. doesn't this speak that kel kellyanne was the first surrogate that i have seen on. that is a college-educated woman that someone will listen to and say okay. yes, she is smart. i might be for that team zblchl isn't it always the case that when somebody is prepared to admit to the truth an element of smartness comes through. when they willfully distort facts in the way we heard there of course you instantly say that's wrong and therefore you don't trust anything else that they say. they completely disqualified themselves as representatives of anything approaching reality. still ahead, they may be the new advisers but it is pretty likely they will be playing second fiddle. we'll talk about that but first a fire that start tuesday

morning forced 80,000 people from their homes for the very latest on that let's go to bill. he will check on the forecast. we are getting live pictures in now. over the top of this fire, typically these fires, usually the wind is light and humidity is up a little bit. you can see the crowning on that tree burning right there. it is running up some of the slopes in the hill. we haven't seen any structures on fire but you can still get an idea thchlt o idea. there are 32 large fires burning in the west. the ones we have been watching here. this one located here is the bluecut fire. it is still only 4% contained.

see at could seattle could be warmer than any where. portland to 101 on saturday. you get an idea how warm it is in the west. that's lot of fuel to burn. also today watch out in minneapolis and rochester, mostly damaging winds. louisiana thankfully is finally looking at a drive morning. the forecast for today, washington d.c., you have had seven days in a row, 75 degrees plus. you have had a hot summer yu yourself. leaving the shot of new york city who saw an early morning of showers the afternoon will clear. you're watching "morning joe." we'll be right back. been hearig so much about how you're a digital company, yet here you are building a jet engine.

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jared, married to my daughter, i actually think he likes politics more than he likes real estate. that is very exciting. >> he is speaking about his son-in-law. he is running the campaign. a new online piece shows his rising and the conflict it caused in his own. vicky ward also with us and hallie jackson. we'll get to vicky's piece in just a bit. there is a new report about manma manafort's russian ties. go they have been looking at

paul manafort, what are his connections? one ukrainean, one russian. they sbroet questionable links -- >> are any of these run that he reportedly stole $100 million from or is that another -- >> one of them is a guy named furtosh. he is a close associate. he is a guy that has been in circles and other areas. there are some business links between manafort's company and furtosh's company. he says they maybe knew each other on an acquaintance level.

there is another guy described as a close associate of putin, parking l part of his inner circle. about $7.3 million had been transferred from companies to manafort's partners. now, he tells nbc he hasn't had any interactions in more than four years essentially saying you're digging where you shouldn't dig. the context of all of this is looking at donald trump's positions on russia, questions that critics have raised. a lot of foreign policy experts. they tell us regardless of manafort's business ties or not he believes donald trump would be holding these positions and that for him it is a cause for concern. the piece is up on nbc news.com.

it is definitely worth a deeper look there. >> these stories keep coming at us. let's go to jared. i know jared. he is a very likable guy. >> he is. >> he doesn't quite seem to strike the classic trump. how is he fitting into the family and how did he become the one person donald trump trusts inside the campaign? >> i probably would recast that a bit. what it shows is how does the trump family fit into that family mold. that is interesting going about that piece about jared. when you went back and looked at it, what ivanka trump, the hoops she had to go through to join

the kufamily how she had to convert and become one of them. it was almost like donald was sidelined. it is interesting because now you have them on the only 12 years ago he wcharlie ku -- >> and christie would be -- i don't care what anybody says, i know the players well enough to know that chris christie is who donald trump wanted to select as vice president and the kushners

vetoed it. >> because christie was the guy th sent their father to jail. i think the influence of this family cannot be under estimated basically. >> mark, what does it say about a campaign that has so many people at the top levels who have never done politics let alone presidential politics? zm. >> well, it speaks to the character of donald trump. you may remember i wrote a book about new york real estate industry which donald was featured. i was actually little vicky long before -- >> yeah. >> and i think what's so interesting is the trumps are a sealed unit. i was told when i went to interview donald they would always be having lunch with each other which is kind of weird

actually. >> i would actually love if my children would have lunch with each other. >> in their 30s? every day? >> nothing wrong with that. that's nice. it's much better than having children that fight each other. >> i think fair enough but it's sort of a sealed bubble. the kushners are very much the same. it's family before anyone or anything else. that is what's troubling. >> if i were building a rocket i would hire people who had built rockets before. do they not see presidential politics -- >> it's not like charlie was an auto shop mechanic. jared grew up around politics. it's not like he is just coming out of left field.

he understand politics. >> right. but this is presidential politics. i'm wondering if they think it's not that hard or their instinct is whatever they do is as a unit. >> i think it's a bit of both. you have the same idea that real estate only gets you so far. i say this in the piece in a guy called mike fasiteli, when does real estate ever get you to the white house? never. they can't believe they are in this position. does it ever deal you in? it means you have beaten someone else. that's what you see, fight. that's what he does in his day-to-day business. real estate is also a very --

jared is running the build his father built. donald will hand that company to his children. >> and we talk about the campaign being sealed in a way. is he getting out and talking to people outside of his bubble and how much interaction does he have? the interesting thing to me is seeing how his influence has grown overthese last two and a half months, since april really and how much more of a voice he has become in donald trump's ear. he has been a personal person but he is influential over the direction of the dam pai-- campaign. >> i think if you look at jared's past but the trajectory has been out to the apex.

when he came to new york he didn't just sort of buy a new building with the kushner company's money, he bought the new york observer. it gave him a whole new area he never would have had before. i think whatever happens in this election we'll see a lot more of jared kushner. >> her piece is available right now online. thank you hallie jackson. we'll be back in a moment with the stories driving the day on wall street. amazing is getting this close. real is an animal rescue. amazing is over twenty-seven thousand of them. there's only one place where real and amazing live.

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with new car replacement™, we'll replace the full value of your car plus depreciation. liberty mutual insurance. sarah is with us. you're watching earning reports out today and i heard yesterday the fed moving towards in the future raising rates. how is all of that going to

impact the market today? >> the big store i have is walmart earnings. it is a rocky times but the mother of them all offered a glimmer of hope. walmart had earnings better than ever. the company saw overall sales growth with after a percent. it was better than expected. it also noted traffic into the stores. coming in better than expectations walmart has done a number of things to improve the stores like boosting employee moral and giving them wage hikes, trying to clean up the stores, trying to come up with stores that are smaller neighborhood markets. this is a big ship to turn around. it is a tough environment for retail. target saw a decline -- >> is that because so many people buy stuff now off of

amazon and other online retailers? >> that is certainly a big part of it and walmart is aggressively trying to fight it. it spent more than $3 million to buy jet.com. walmart did see online sales grow 12%. when amazon is growing at 20% this is a tough one to fight. >> it is going to be a tough one to fight. i wonder if they end up in the long run like best buy. it is a brutal market out there. all right. sarah, thank you so much! thank you. coming up, time magazine looking to answer the question, why we are losing the internet to the culture of hate. that's their provocative issue coming up straight ahead. can't wait to talk about that. their dreams. being able to go between having a laptop and having a tablet is really important to me... i couldn't do that with my mac.

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i'm hillary clinton, and i approve this message. michael hayden: if he governs consistent with some of the things he said as a candidate, i would be very frightened. gillian turner: he's been talking about the option of using a nuclear weapon against our western european allies. max boot: this is not somebody who should be handed the nuclear codes. charles krauthammer: you have to ask yourself, do i want a person of that temperament controlling the nuclear codes? and as of now, i'd have to say no. [bill o'reilly sighs] and as of now, i'd have to say no. ♪ ♪ isaac hou has mastered gravity defying moves to amaze his audience. great show. here you go. now he's added a new routine. making depositing a check seem so effortless. easy to use chase technology, for whatever you're trying to master. isaac, are you ready? yeah. chase. so you can.

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with us now nancy gibbs, why we are losing the internet to the chuulture of hate. great cover but you have a contin continueum of this. twitter is in the middle and facebook fair much better! they talk about when your anonymous and invisible it is much easier to be cruel and

hateful. on facebook it is less likely people will be threatening to burn your house down. >> and facebook has also been very aggressive in this realm in a way that twitter hasn't until recently. >> others are wrestling with how you figure this out. i think we are all probably first amendment extremists about, yes, part of our life is that people will call us stupid and idiots and that's fine. but at what point do you not suspend speech. they say they are going to rape your five-year-old child. we are going to post your home address and suggest ways for people to attack it. these are real examples. these are one of the reasons you see people leaving twitter and other platforms.

what happens to the robust national conversation? can you really say they are whiners. >> and the people not getting involved in public office and not throwing their names out there because they don't want their children destroyed on the internet. >> and that's a really good point. we sent joel to explore this territory. who are those most likely to be posting these kinds of things and the sobering thing is they are very familiar. doctors and lawyers and ki kindergarten teachers. it's not that they hate their targets as they love the game of hating. everywhere i go i hear people talking about the things that are being said in public and at campaign rallies, this all was happening online and has now basically moved out of private

digital spaces into public ones. >> you know, the thing that surprises me is that i learned not a take a lot of this stuff personally. you some of the most hateful vile remarks. it's like who would write something like this? happy mom in springfield, illinois, loving jesus and wanting to give a positive word. you would look at it and say this is not how this person behaves in their community. >> a nation that loves irony. i'm putting you on a spot you may not know the answer to. >> i'm sure that's true! in other countries are we the world leader in hate? zb .

>> i don't know the answer but these are universal platforms but -- >> i would like to know if the dutch hate as much on twitter as we do. >> a lot of conversations we have discovered, the conversations around political flash points are certainly not unique to the united states. that's engendered the rhetoric. >> and there's a market reaction to this and i think a market correction will come. i can't tell you how many have gotten off of twitter. we had an actress who just was absolutely destroyed online because of a ghost busters remake. >> well, and i have struggled with this. when you're -- especially out on the campaign trail i'm sort of struggling to find an example of something i can actually read on tv. >> you can't.

>> sure, hillary is giving you the scripts. that's kind of generic. do you think it's worse for women? there are many in here directed at me because of that that i couldn't read. >> we did an anonymous poll and more than half the women have thought about leaving journalism because of just the level of hatred and often threats and physical threats. this is not about being thin skinned. that comes with the territory. when it gets to a point that i am trying to shut you down and i am going to target your children, that's a different place. >> i can tell you over eight or nine years and seeing what she gets online it is 100 times worse for women. it has to do with appearance, violence, threats for children.

what women get 100 times worse than what men get. it is frightening. it really is. thank you so much. what an important piece, why we are losing the internet to culture of hate. sites that don't monitor that hate will get put out of business. all right. thank you guys so much. that does it for us this morning. on "morning joe" stephanie picks up the coverage after a quick break. thank you.

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