that is all for tonight. we'll be back monday with more "mtp daily." have great night and a great weekend. has my way hit the highway? let's play "hardball." good evening. i'm chris matthews in washington. just days after kellyanne conway and steve bannon took the helm of the trump campaign, the republican nominee modulated tone, cleaned house and rolled out his first ad of the general election. it's the clearest sign yet that trump, who has been hoping for a game change, is actively trying to win back the voters he needs for a path to victory in november. a staff shakeup this week, amid that, paul manafort today

resigned. he's gone. his post as campaign chairman. sources tell nbc news manafort's relationship with trump had turned adversarial and he didn't want to be sdra sdrx for the campaign. the move follows various reports about manafort's connection with russian oligarchs. sticking to the teleprompter last night, trump showed a rare moment of contrition, expressing regrets for some of the things he said that may have caused, he used the word pain. here he is. >> sometimes in the heat of debate and speaking on a multitude of issues, you don't choose the right words or you say the wrong thing. i have done that. and believe it or not, i regret it. and i do regret it. particularly where it may have

caused personal pain. >> trump's also out today with his new tv ad of the general election, first one of the tv ad of the election, an attack on hillary clinton on the issue no surprise here of immigration. it comes after trump the last couple of months, two months, in fact, effectively ceded the air waves to secretary clinton who spent $60 million already on general election advertising. she's owned the air waves. all of a sudden these trump campaign changes aren't coming soon enough for a campaign that for weeks has appeared to be headed downward. we all agree on that. this is the transparent fact weech. we have all watched trump's campaign crumble the last three or four weeks. late today, trump made a hard pitch to african-american voters, at least seemed to be doing it. let's watch what he said. >> look how much african-american communities have suffered under democratic control. to those i say the following. what do you have to lose by

trying something new like trump. what do you have to lose? what do you have to lose? you're living in poverty. your schools are no good. you have no jobs. 58% of your youth is unemployed. what the hell do you have to lose? at the end of four years i guarantee you that i will get over 95% of the african-american vote, i promise you. >> i'm joined by msnbc political analyst robert costa from "the washington post," michael steele, former chairman of the rnc and msnbc political analyst and stephanie shriok. i will let you up to the plate first. first, what do you make of trump's changes and the regrets? it was almost like i did it my way, regrets, i've made a few but then again, too few to mention. he won't mention them clearly. but he is trying to be, i think, trying to be nicer so he will get women republicans to vote

for him. i think that's what he's up to. especially on the racial stuff. i don't think that's aimed at black people, african-americans. i think it's aimed at white women who don't want to see themselves as racist so he's talking to them. your thoughts. >> it seems to me that really, the only thing he regrets is that he's losing. >> right. >> that's precisely what we are seeing. >> that's politics. >> this isn't so much fun anymore, i liked this better when other things were happening. i mean, here's the thing. he has spent his entire campaign and arguably most of his adult life offending particularly women in this country. seven out of ten women voters do not like him. they did not like him yesterday. they do not like him today. and i'm quite confident they're not going to like him on election day. his offensive comments have gone too far and he's clearly proven he's unfit for the presidency. >> let me go to robert costa. robert, what do you think? he obviously saw the abyss this

week. we all have our own take on what's going on. i think he looked into the abyss and said i'm going to humiliate myself, i'm going to become a loser, a giant loser, and i better make some changes. in comes kellyanne, in comes bannon, out guess moes manafort. your thoughts? >> it started over the weekend. trump was in the hamptons meeting with donors, friends. he was furious about leaks he saw from within the campaign. he saw manafort as becoming a distraction. trump's family which had grown close to manafort, supportive of him the last couple months, started to see manafort's issues with the pro-russian forces in ukraine as another political distraction. this whole time, he's talking to kellyanne conway behind the scenes, talking to steve bannon, informal adviser and meeting with roger ailes and saying we got to kick-start this thing in the next 80 days. >> do you think he's committed to this new approach of kinder, gentler to women, kinder gentler to african-americans, kinder gentler to flood victims by flying down there? it does seem to o piece

i'm not the s.o.b. some people think i am, i'm changing or i'm going to look different now. he seems to be trying. is this real or is it p.r.? that's a terrible question. i take that back. just answer whatever you think. we can never do that on television, figure out what's the difference between true and just selling. go ahead. >> it's not apples and oranges. based on my reporting, what we are going to see is a hybrid approach. little bit of this kellyanne conway influence, reaching out to suburban women. the trip down to louisiana, the regret expression last night in charlotte. then you got the bannon approach at the same time which is this pugilistic populism going hard after secretary clinton. >> let's take a look at this. this morning trump campaign manager kellyanne conway was asked about whom trump was addressing last night when he said he regretted some of the things he's been saying. let's watch this moment. >> what was he talking about? >> he was talking about anyone who feels offended by anything he said and that's all him.

i hope that everybody who has criticized him at some point, david, for being insensitive or for mocking someone, at least shows some recognition and some forgiveness. >> will he reach out to the khan family personally? >> he may. but i certainly hope that they heard him last night. >> well, i think she's saying accept it if you feel it. >> i think the important thing you are talking about a man who has made it very clear he doesn't apologize. he doesn't see a need to express what he did, express regret. so that for him, again, i give that credit to kellyanne. i think she's had an immediate impact on the campaign. i think trump is probably now for the first time in a while in a more comfortable space. he along with they are beginning to figure out how to do what robert just touched on, be the pugilist who can go into battle head-to-head against hillary but also have in place the message, the structure, and the conversation beyond just going on attack. >> i think it's interesting. donald trump today released his

first tv ad of the general election. a $4 million ad buy comes two months after clinton, secretary clinton launched her first ad back in june. let's watch this. >> in hillary clinton's america, the system stays rigged against americans. syrian refugees flood in. illegal immigrants convicted of committing crimes get to stay. donald trump's america is secure. terrorists and dangerous criminals kept out. the border secure. our families safe. >> well, you dance with the one that brung you. he's back to where he started. the battle against illegal immigration added to the battle against what he considers dangerous refugees coming to this country. >> it's one shade away from his statement of mexicans being rapists. i don't see this as a change. i see it as a continuation of the campaign. the entire campaign he's run. and as -- >> what do you think, illegal immigration is popular in this country? you think illegal immigration is popular?

>> no, that's why we need immigration reform. we have to have a debate about immigration reform. but i think it's important to note with these changes, bringing on steve bannon is not exactly a warming feeling for particularly women in this country. >> how about kellyanne? what do you think of her? what do you think of kellyanne? >> i think it will be really interesting to see what she does here. i just want to remind folks, on the anniversary of aikens' statement about remember, she was the one who defended todd aiken. and she's working for donald trump. i'm pretty sure she will defend him. >> i will get to you in a minute. i'm working on you. i want you to say something you think might be a smart political move whether or not you like it. going out and saying i made mistakes, things i regret saying, what do you make of that? i think that's got the kellyanne fingerprints on it. what do you think of that, last night, trump doing it?

>> it may. it may have her fingerprints. i just don't, he also said believe me or not. i don't believe him. and i think i am with the vast majority of women in this country who just don't believe it now. it's too late. >> let me get back to robert on the cultivation of the vote he needs. my hunch is that before you win a general election, you first have to win back the mitt romney vote from last time. he is in trouble in states like arizona. he's in trouble in north carolina. he has to fight for florida at this point. he has to get back to avoid humiliation. winning women republicans back seems to be the goal. kellyanne seems to be the perfect professional to help him. am i right? >> well, that's a fair argument to make but based on the reporting i had today, they are severing the arm they had to the republican establishment in paul manafort. he's gone. he's the one with the links. bringing in steve bannon, breitbart has been very much opposed to ryan, the house speaker and mcconnell, senate majority leader in their primary contests in recent years.

you have bannon advocating this populism nationalism that's detached from the republican party. this is an attempt to make wholesale change of what the gop is. >> let me ask you about the area you came from. bucks county, pennsylvania, suburban republican women who vote republican basically, i don't want to cut them short but basically because of their tax brackets. they are a little better off they think the republican party's better for them. are they in trouble? is trump in trouble with them still, those women? >> when we look -- >> they read the papers, they know the issues but tend to be republicans, soft republicans. can he win them enough to win pennsylvania? can he win them back, in fact? >> the way i have had it described to me is the trump people have to get economic unrest for suburban voters to outweigh temperamental concerns that have been lingering for many months. >> trump today took on hillary clinton when it comes to the african-american vote. he's going to a vote he's not going to get but i think he has to look like he's trying in order to get the white moderate vote. that's my thinking.

let's watch. >> hillary clinton would rather provide a job to a refugee from overseas than to give that job to unemployed african-american youth in cities like detroit hoshgs hawho have become refugees in their own country. >> how does that ring, michael? is that for somebody else? >> i don't think that resonates he fki effectively in the black community. >> guys in detroit don't think he's on their side? >> they are largely detached. there are those who like the idea and i heard that expressed to me by a number of entrepreneurs and folks like that who say look, i like that message originally but everything else is now clouded that in such a way they are not buying it. he may be able to open up a little bit of a conversation there but not much. this was for a broader audience. this was for greater michigan. this was for arizona. this was for the rest of the rust belt. this was for parts of

pennsylvania, for example, where you know, he's trying to say look, i do care about the people you care about and i am concerned about their station in life, so that should be enough. >> i care seems to be the theme of the last 24 hours. we will see if it lasts. certainly to highlight that and visualize it he took a surprise trip last night. trump today toured the flood zone in louisiana where thousands have been forced out of their homes. horrible stories down there. it comes after a louisiana newspaper called on president obama to cut short his vacation on martha's vineyard to visit the state. trump today took a jab at the president for as he put it deciding to play golf. let's watch. >> you're playing golf in martha's vineyard. that's all we're going to say. >> thanks for showing up here, buddy. >> somebody is. somebody is that shouldn't be. >> that's right. >> make america great again. >> thank you. >> build it back, right? build it back. >> robert costa, you got to like somebody like that who just yells out what they're thinking. that woman's got it.

she was saying why -- what's he playing golf for? talk about a nice partisan shot while the cameras are running. what did you make of that? >> trump loves golf. he spends most of his weekends at trump national having these policy meetings. i think you see trump, this meeting, this trip, to louisiana, it was recommended by bannon. bannon has these ideas, same with conway of going to democratic towns, places where president obama may not be to try to change the perception of trump not just in these interviews, in these speeches, but in his trips and his itinerary. >> it's like george bush senior going up to boston harbor, showing how dirty it was. remember? >> exactly. the conversation is about trump being in a space where the president is not. >> yeah. you never look good when you're not in a spot. the president is going to catch up. he will tag businease tuesday g down to baton rouge. it's not so good as going now. you can argue this is all showmanship, all p.r. we can argue that but that's what we cover.

it's called a campaign. go ahead. what did you say? >> i was just saying this whole campaign for trump is showmanship. this is not a campaign that will be as competitive as clinton on grassroots and fund-raising. it's all about public perception. >> i think -- ronald reagan did quite well. they know how to put him in the right place at the right time, whether it was in front of -- in the liberty park in new jersey rediscovering the statue of liberty. it all worked. i don't know if it will work as much for trump. there's some scar tissue there on that guy. >> donald trump is no ronald reagan. >> did you like ronald reagan, stephanie? >> i disagreed with him but i tell you, donald trump -- >> did you like him? >> well, i'm going to be honest with you. i was in elementary school. >> did you like him? i need to know. you can't get away with this. you can't say he's no ronald reagan whether or not you say if you liked him or not. >> i really was a great

communicator. >> great. thank you. you are discernible in your politics. thank you for coming on. stephanie, robert and michael, thank you. have a nice weekend, everybody, with all your opinions. coming up, quid pro quo. the state department says that $400 million payment to iran was quote, leverage, close quote, to get the american prisoners back. the people being held over there. critics are calling the payment ransom because money for people sounds like ransom. the white house is on defense. let's watch this one next. vladimir putin, all in for trump in 2016? vlad the impaler? i have the former ambassador of russia here to tell us why that country and its president, putin, appear to be meddling -- i think i wrote getting into our presidential election. and game change. trump's attempted reset this week pivoting to foreign policy,

shaking up his campaign people and heading to louisiana to tour flood damage, will that work? can he win back wary republicans who went for mitt romney? can he just win back the republican base? that's his game now. get a single before you hit a home run. the roundtable weighs in. let me finish with the trump-de-dump. he likes to fire people. ♪ across new york state, from long island to buffalo, from rochester to the hudson valley, from albany to utica, creative business incentives, infrastructure investment, university partnerships, and the lowest taxes in decades are creating a stronger economy and the right environment in new york state for business to thrive. let us help grow your company's tomorrow- today at business.ny.gov

wthat's why we offerfi free wi-fi at breakfast, by the pool, even while you're sleeping. you can exhale now. enjoy free wi-fi and free hot breakfast. book at hampton.com for a guaranteed discount. new numbers tonight on how hillary clinton and donald trump fare in two toss-up states. let's check the "hardball" scoreboard. hillary clinton holds a two point, these are nothing, these edges, out in nevada clinton 44, trump 42. that could be close certainly. that's within the margin of error, obviously. in georgia, there's a state, clinton and trump are tied. that's great news for hillary clinton. that state hasn't gone for a democrat since 1992. we'll be right back. energy is a complex challenge. people want power.

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first of all, this was iran's money, okay? it was money that they were going to get back anyway and so we negotiated with the hague this interest payment that was much more advantageous to american taxpayers. so to the degree it was a quid pro quo, it was they got their principal back and we got a much more advantageous interest payment schedule. >> welcome back to "hardball." that was state department spokesman john kirby today, early today, defending the administration's decision to reimburse, there's a word for you, iran $400 million at the same time that country released four american prisoners. the deal is under new scrutiny now because kirby acknowledged just yesterday that the administration, barack obama administration, with held the release of cash until they knew the prisoners had left iran. listen to that. >> in basic english, you're saying that you wouldn't give them the $400 million in cash until the prisoners were released. correct? >> that's correct. because we already had concerns

about the end game in terms of getting our people out. we didn't want to take any chances. so we believe that as much leverage as could be had, we wanted to have. >> well, the administration has had to defend that deal since the "wall street journal" reported august 3rd, this month, quote, the obama administration secretly organized an airlift of $400 million worth of cash to iran that coincided with the january release of four americans detained in tehran. republicans of course and they should have, that's what we do in politics, jumped on that report describing the deal as a ransom for hostages. president obama pushed back the next day. here he is. >> the timing of this was in fact dictated by the fact that as a consequence of us negotiating around the nuclear deal, we actually had diplomatic negotiations and conversations with iran for the first time in several decades. >> for more, i'm joined by senior white house correspondent

for bloomberg news and the president of ploughshare fund. might as well start with the cutting question. who told zarif, who told iran if they gave us our people back they would get the money? because that statement, they knew they would get the money if they released our people, who told them that? once telling them that, isn't that a trade? isn't that a linkage? >> you think we will find out in the congressional hearings that will happen in a few weeks? >> you know, you will get the money if you release our people. that sounds like quid pro quo. it just sounds like a deal. >> the u.s. has -- >> part of a bigger deal but part of a deal. >> the u.s. has apparently owed this money to what used to be iran since 1979. >> 37 years later we are repaying a bill exactly on the day prisoners are geagreed to g out. >> we are repaying the deal because the u.s. agreed to it several months after jason rezaian was already taken captive. >> let me ask you, why do you think the administration denied there was a linkage of any kind?

it was all part of a deal. >> as we discussed before last week, these were clearly connected because we had made the deal with iran, new diplomatic channels opened up. we were able to solve this debt that we owed them for 37 years and we were able to make a prisoner exchange and it all happened together. was there a connection, yes. but was there a quid pro quo, was this ransom, was it secret, no. >> we are saying they wouldn't get the money if they didn't release the prisoners but that's not the same as saying you'll get the money if you release the prisoners. these are interesting questions of how things work. if i say to someone if you do that, i will give you the money. who said that? >> he didn't say that. that's not what kirby said. in what fantasy world does the criminal gang release the hostages, then wait for the money to be paid? >> we made the commitment. >> we got nervous at the end this was all supposed to be synchronized. playing with the past, the prisoners were supposed to be taken off, the plane with the money was supposed to be there. two separate negotiated deals happening at the same time.

>> it sounds like ransom. >> they were delaying the prisoners. >> listen. you got a child kidnapping case, they say give me $50 million. you show with the $50 million and the baby's there, right? if the baby's not there you say you're not getting the money. that sounds like a ransoming. >> this was smart diplomacy. if they hadn't made that deal, they would be taking a victory lap. >> why does this administration deny linkage? >> there wasn't a quid pro quo. >> if you don't agree to part of the deal you don't get the whole deal. >> this is smart diplomacy. >> so you are arguing there's no relationship between getting the money and the prisoners being released. >> there is a relationship but it's not that ransom relationship. >> let's watch the president. earlier, president obama defended the deal and poo-pooed ideas this was a ransom payment. >> we do not pay ransom. we did not here and we won't in the future precisely because if we did, then we would start encouraging americans to be

targeted much in the same way that some countries that do pay ransom end up having a lot more of their citizens being taken by various groups. >> i don't understand why he didn't say not ransom but they were connected. it's all part of a deal. don't have to get into magic loaded words like ransom. just say you know what, there wasn't going to be anything decided unless everything was decided. we all did it at the same time. there was the deal about -- everything was on the table. the arms deal, the end of sanctions, the money coming back after 37 years of us freezing the assets and getting our people back. it was all in this package and it was all contingent on all the other pieces of it. happens all the time in negotiations. nothing gets agreed upon unless everything's agreed upon. why didn't you say that? >> they probably should have. i think they were too clever by half. they disclosed the $1.7 billion as part of the agreement but really not the nature of exactly how it happened. but president obama was already under so much heat, so much fire because of the nature of the

negotiations. one would guess. >> here's the problem. joe, there already were sneaky aspects to thchis. when you send over cash, in euro, sterling, whatever, sending it in an unmarked airplane, the whole thing had the aspect of subterfuge. it was very important that ahead of time, i know this will look weird but the only way we get paid, given all the sanctions and requirements, i have to send over an unmarked plane, send it in european currency. it will look bad but this is what we are doing. this is part of a deal. by not doing that up front, he's allowed trump now, trump will pound this baby for weeks. this is a gimme for him. >> yes. the worst you can say about the administration is they were clumsy in the way they handled it but there was nothing secret about it. >> it was secretly done. >> it was reported by the "wall street journal" at the time it happened. >> we got it last night at 6:37 on the a.p. wire when i got it. it wasn't exactly broad

daylight. >> the "wall street journal" was crucifying obama because he negotiated an iran deal that didn't include the prisoners. then he gets the prisoners out and they cry ransom. there's no pleasing some people. >> i'm not sure how successful trump will be at pummelling clinton about this because the people who hate the iran deal, hate the iran deal. but it does allow him to take some of the focus off of russia, the ukraine. >> credibility. >> all of the above. >> credibility. it's everything. i'm pro-obama on everything practically. this kind of thing has to be carefully handled. ronald reagan lost 20 points in the polling because i studied it back then, when he went over and sent toe missiles to iran after having gotten elected after standing up on hostage taking. he beat jimmy carter on 50 hostages. what's he do? he was guilty as hell on that. it took him months to admit it. why not learn from the mistakes of earlier presidents? all i'm saying. i study this stuff. thank you, margaret and joe.

i don't mean to brag. up next, this is a great one coming up. what does putin like about trump possibly winning? it's a long shot. why would he want him to win? we talk to the former ambassador of russia when we return. i'm anne howard and i'm michael howard. we left on our honeymoon in january 2012. it actually evolved into a business. from our blog to video editing... our technology has to hang tough with us. when you're going to a place without electricity, you need a long battery life. the touch, combined with the screen resolution... a mac doesn't have that. we wanted to help more people get out there and see the world. once you take that leap, that's where the magic happens. hey, ready foyeah. big meeting? >>uh, hello!? a meeting? it's a big one. too bad. we are double booked: diarrhea and abdominal pain. why don't you start without me?

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i'm milissa rehberger. here's what's happening. u.s. swimmer ryan lochte is apologizing for giving a misleading account of a

confrontation with security guards at a gas station in rio. lochte initially claimed he and three others were robbed at gunpoint. the international olympic committee says it is set a disciplinary commission to look into it. zika infections are now occurring in the tourist mecca of miami beach where five people have become sick. the cdc is warning pregnant women to avoid the area. now back to "hardball." welcome back to "hardball." ever since embarrassing e-mails were stolen from the dnc and leaked during the democratic convention last month, russia's apparent meddling or involvement in the presidential campaign has been one of the stranger stories of 2016. security experts say that with near certitude it was the hacking -- the hacking was perpetrated by the russian intelligence agencies under president vladimir putin directly controlled by him. in an op-ed in "the washington

post" michael mcfaul explained putin had reasons for wanting trump to win. trump's most shocking pro-kremlin proposal is to look into recognition of crimea as a part of russia. well, after the dnc was hacked, trump went so far as to call upon russia to help find hillary clinton's e-mails. trump really did that and has repeatedly praised putin on the campaign trail. here he is earlier this month. >> they say putin likes trump and he said nice things about me. he called me a genius. he said we're going to win. that's good. that's not bad. that's good. >> is it? we are joined by michael mcfaul, former united states ambassador russia. we ought to start with the facts we know. do we know the russians and their intelligence forces hacked

into the dnc e-mails and dumped them on us? >> yes. government officials have said as much on background. a private firm has investigated it. i have talked to very senior people at the white house about it. i don't think there's any doubt that they have done that. chris, let's remember that is their job. it's called spying. it's called intelligence. we do it, too, by the way. that's their job. it's not their job to get caught. >> why did they dump it? >> well, let's be very precise what we know and we don't. wikileaks dumped the data, not the russians. wikileaks, they made very clear they don't like secretary clinton and they want to do damage to her. the part we don't know precisely is did the russians give it to wikileaks and i don't think we are ever going to know that because wikileaks isn't going to tell us and the russians aren't going to tell us either. >> what do we know about russian intentions? the old churchill line, you got to figure out russian interests

to figure out what they're up to. what's in their interests. what's in their interests regarding our election that you can discern? >> you know, i just think it's simple as day. it's crystal clear. there's one candidate that says we should look into recognizing crimea as part of russia. there's another candidate, secretary clinton, that says absolutely not. there's one candidate, mr. trump, that says we should renegotiate our relationship with our nato allies. there's another candidate that says absolutely we shouldn't do that. so i don't think you need to have a ph.d. in political science like i do to think that mr. trump is the preferable candidate for the kremlin. >> so trump comes off as soft in terms of what you say, the restoration of the old sphere of influence by moscow? >> he just supports their views. he says what they have been trying to say, trying to get other people to say. just on crimea, i want to point out i don't know of any, maybe you do because you talk to more of them than i do, senators or

member of congress, that supports that. there's only six countries in the world that have supported the recognition. so that's -- >> they are not our friends. >> no. syria, north korea -- >> venezuela. yeah. let me ask you about russia's ambitions. i'm fascinated with the manner, the way in which history seems to be relentless. russia has always wanted warm water ports, they want access to oil like everybody else do, they want access to the south. they don't like being stuck up in the north. they always seemed to like, like hitler always wanted to move east, russia wants to move south and also wants to recreate the -- what's it called, the near abroad? they want to bring back into their sphere of influence enough of the countries around them, former members of the ussr, that would make them feel strong again. isn't that it? >> yeah. that's right. i don't think putin wants to recreate the soviet union anymore. i think he's too rational for

that. but to have a sphere of influence, to have the countries on his border subservient to him, like ukraine and georgia, of course that's in his national interest today. >> why can't -- >> defined by him, by the way. >> we spent most of my growing up in the cold war of course and i remember it was east-west, us against the east. it was also west against east. the hope was when the cold war ended there would be a north-south thing where we and the russians would agree, we didn't know it would be called isis but some aspect of the third world, why hasn't that happened, why isn't there mutual interest between us and the russians in taking on the trouble coming from the world of the middle east? >> well, you know, we are -- >> we are both vulnerable. they are more vulnerable than us. >> well, it's actually 25 years ago to the date that there was that coup attempt in august 1991. when it failed, that was the moment of euphoria where we thought we were going to work together. by the way, episodically through those 25 years we have worked

together. i was at the white house in 2009 with president obama. we did cooperative things with them including working against terrorists. but putin came back in 2011 and 2012 when he was elected president and he decided that we were meddling in his election, remember that, and he blamed secretary clinton for that. not in my opinion, but in his opinion, the statements she made about that parliamentary election sent a signal, that's his word, to russian protesters to come out on the street. when that happened and -- >> are you a little worried hillary is a hawkish in the cold war sense, i talk to her and get a sense she's not really shaken by the vietnam experience or iraq experience, that she is still basically hawkish in terms of east-west relationship. >> i never know what to do with that word hawkish. i'm not a child of the cold war. that was before my time. i would say she's tough. she's going to be tough in

defending our national interests. you invoked ronald reagan three or four times on this show, peace through strength. that was smart. ronald reagan did a lot of business with the soviets but he did it not by being weak, but by being strong. >> yeah. i think he was averse to going to war on the line between east and west germany. he didn't go to war over little things. i thought reagan was very discerning on that kind of thing. thank you for coming on. >> thanks for having me. up next, time for a turn-around. is trump really gearing up for the fall? has he got it figured out yet? step one is winning back the states mitt romney carried four months ago. can he do that? can he win back wary republicans?

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african-american communities have suffered under democratic control. to those i say the following. what do you have to lose by trying something new like trump? what do you have to lose? what do you have to lose? you're living in poverty. your schools are no good. you have no jobs. 58% of your youth is unemployed. what the hell do you have to lose? at the end of four years, i guarantee you, that i will get over 95% of the african-american vote, i promise you. >> that's donald trump today. i don't think he was credible but he was trying to make an appeal to african-american voters. at least he was doing that on the surface. i think he was working moderate whites to be blunt about it. with a change in tone and overall of his campaign management, trump is trying to get back in the game between now

and november. step number one is getting nervous republicans back aboard and those who went for mitt romney four years ago. got to get back the republican vote from 2012 before you get the republican vote to win in 2016. anyway, he's also got ground to make up in key states. the latest nbc news battleground match shows democrats with 288 electoral votes this week. republicans at 174. that's about 100 shy. so can and will trump pull off the turn-around? joining me are some experts. the chief investigative reporter for politico, whougs correspondent for the daily mail and a really smart guy, republican pollster. am i right that when you are a republican, addressing an audience which looks pretty much white, i hate talking like this but it is pretty much white, he's really selling the suburban person who doesn't want to think of themselves as racists, that trump isn't one? >> it's more his tone and tenor in terms of him being open and trying to campaign to a wide audience of people. democrats do the same thing.

so i think it has been interesting -- >> who is he trying to recruit the next couple weeks? who's he going for? >> you have to go to his original numbers. i keep going back to both hillary and he had a 55% unfavorable rating when this race started. hers was driven by the politics of her past. his was driven by his personality. this is an effort to show a different part of him, much like his children exposed a different part of him during the convention. and it's tone and tenor and style that we keep hearing from the campaign he needs to stay on message. that's only half of it. the other half of it is the tone and tenor that he shows the voters out there. >> it seems hard for him. i keep thinking of him as sinatra all the time. the guy will fight as big as he is, will fight anybody in a bar. the great line from "my way" was regrets, i had a few, but too few to mention. he wasn't going to say what regret he had, just generally, if i hurt anybody out there was the old cover-up. if anybody's offended, okay.

>> it does seem difficult for him to stay on message and stay disciplined, even today as he went to louisiana which was supposed to be this visit to make him look very presidential. he took this swing at president obama. >> that woman gave the swing. he just punched it. she said he's up there playing golf. >> you know, but he didn't have to do that. he could have just moved on from it but he had to make fun of president obama's golf game. everybody knew obama wasn't in louisiana. that was very clear. he didn't have to do that. he has to stay on message. you asked who he needs to be winning? he needs to be winning white working class voters. there are states like iowa which he could be, should be winning and he's not doing particularly well there. i'm not quite sure why he's not going up with ads in that state. >> sure he's not close in iowa? >> he is closer there than he is in some other states but he's not winning there, either. >> to your point, about it being hard for him, that's exactly right. we have seen these shifts before. we have seen him pivot and be a little more diplomatic, even read off a teleprompter before. how long does it typically last, a day.

two days. then he swings right back. >> he throws in these asides. >> he can't help himself. yes, some credit to kellyanne conway. >> it's hard to write for him. >> absolutely. it's impossible to write for him. >> that's my point. only half of it is staying on message. the other half is the personality. the persona you are showing. that's the thing that the voters who are not supporting him that should be supporting him, the republicans and some of the independent voters, they just had a negative reaction to his personality in the beginning and they are still reacting that way because he does keep going back to that. >> is he too brash? >> too brash, he has an image of too much of being a bully. he is too much off the cuff. doesn't mean you can't be strong. >> i know. >> but you don't have to be -- >> my irish american grandmother never liked jackie gleason because she knew too many jackie gleasons. the roundtable is staying with us. we'll be right back. as you can see, i build the jet engines,

and programmers teach them to talk. so yeah, ge is digital and industrial. so it's indigital. digidustrial. indigenous. shhhh... let's go with digital industrial. for now. digidustrial. yeah. or, digital industrial. what comes to mind when you think about healthcare? understanding your options? or, if you're getting the care you need? at aarpadvantages.com, you can find helpful information about healthcare options. leaving you more time to think about more important things. like not having to think about healthcare at all. surround yourself with healthy advantages at aarpadvantages.com/health. [indistinct conversations]

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i don't know how this lady does it. we'll be right back. new friends here. thanks, captain obvious. you're welcome. roger that, sir. my name isn't roger. supported by hotels.com. igoing to clean betteran electthan a manual. was he said sure...but don't get just any one. get one inspired by dentists, with a round brush head. go pro with oral-b. oral-b's rounded brush head cups your teeth to break up plaque and rotates to sweep it away. and oral-b delivers a clinically proven superior clean versus sonicare diamondclean. my mouth feels super clean! oral-b. know you're getting a superior clean. i'm never going back to a manual brush.

we're back. tell me something i don't know. because you know so much. >> well, i'm going to key off the last thing you said, talking about kellyanne and how she's doing with trump. i think she's doing a very good job, she's having some impact in terms of message. the hidden secret there, she's been pence's pollster for years. so i think that will help in driving her message and pence has a lot of qualities a lot of voters are waiting to see. >> she's here for the duration. >> she's here for the duration. >> we know that president obama is in martha's vineyard this weekend. hillary clinton will be going there as well, going to cape cod, nantucket. >> i know where she's going. >> and she's also on sunday doing a fund-raiser with the one and only cher. >> to nantucket on saturday for

lunch. go ahead. >> paul manafort, donald trump's former campaign manager who resigned today, our understanding is that about ten days ago, he went to trump and he told him, hey, a bunch of reporters, a bunch of big media outlets are poking around in my business in ukraine, could be some damaging stories coming out. we need to bring in additional fire power at the top level of the campaign. that was kellyanne and this steve bannon guy. >> did he know he was going to be replaced by them? >> he didn't. he thought they could weather the storm, but we need to have people in place. >> there's a lot about when you cast off people. but where he fires his engine by firing people. anyway, thank you all. when we return, let me finish with a trump-de-dump. if you're told you have cancer,

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you look awful. oh, sweetie, what happened? girl: me? my friend becky got to talk to this super-cute boy, and i tried to act like i wasn't jealous, but i so totally was, and then, out of nowhere, this concrete barrier just popped up. maybe it was a semi. you mean you were driving? yeah. i mean, i know the whole "eyes on the road" thing. but this was a super important text. maybe you have to know becky. texting? great. but it was only, like, 5 seconds, and i'm a really, really fast texter, so it wasn't even a big deal. actually, has she texted me back yet? [squishing sound] wow, i get, like, no bars in this place. i wonder if they have wi-fi here. mapping the oceans. where we explore. protecting biodiversity. everywhere we work. defeating malaria. improving energy efficiency. developing more clean burning natural gas. my job?

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let me finish tonight with the trump-de-dump. have you noticed he thrives on getting rid of people. lewandowski, then manafort. hey, look, the train's coming. i can hear the whistle. firing, firing, firing. corey you're fired, paul, you too. but he's doing what others have done trying to get to the right leader. like lincoln relieving all the men including general mccloud who refused to commit the troops. we saw it with ronald reagan

letting john sears going after winning new hampshire and put his faith in bill casey. saw it with dukakis putting di sasso aside. then bringing him back. i know that kellyanne conway knows her stuff. the fact that donald trump has recruited her to run his campaign says something about trump's learning curve. the big question, can trump win back the wavering republicans and independents who were with him before, can we convince republican women he has the heart to be president, that he possesses a minimum level of compassion that makes all presidents worthy of our confidence? we're seeing signs he does. his comment last night about hg regrets for things he's said that have hurt people, showing concern for the blood victims in louisiana. no matter how successful this turn in the campaign is whether newly expressed sentiments are genuine or not. why? because the minimal standard of

getting elected president of the united states is not sounding and looking like an s.o.b. that's "hardball." "all in with chris hayes" starts right now. tonight on "all in" -- >> i'm always careful with the clients i take. >> donald trump's campaign chairman quits. >> my father didn't want the distraction. >> tonight all the intrigue on the third reboot in five months. plus, the new softer trump returns to divide and coveranqu. >> what do you have to lose? >> and what does donald trump mean when he expresses regret? >> i regret it. >> i'll ask a trump senior adviser tonight. >> particularly where it may have caused personal pain. plus, disaster politics on the bayou. breaking news on the president's visit to the flood zone. and 49ennifrightening new zika warnings in a major american city. >> we believe we have a new area where local transmissions are occurring. >> "all in"