apologized to romney for being wrong would have better standing if a similar argument from the same location hadn't been proven wrong once before. that is all for tonight. chuck will be back tomorrow with more "mtp daily." "with all due respect" starts right now. i'm mark halperin. >> and i'm john heilemann. and with all due respect to donald trump jr., we think we know what candy he won't be giving out at halloween. >> taking my life into my own hands here according to donald trump jr. our show tonight, new details emerging about ahmad khan rahami, the man suspected of setting off homemade explosives in manhattan and new jersey this week, injuring 29 people. rahami's father reportedly warned police about his son two years ago, but an fbi assessment

of the case ended after no ties to terrorism were found. among other developments, authorities obtained the notebook that belonged to the bomber and reportedly exhibits opinions sympathetic to jihadist causes. after spending yesterday trading barbs with hillary clinton over how this nation should respond to internal terrorist threats, donald trump stayed on offense at his rally this afternoon in high point, north carolina. clinton was off the trail today, but held a conference call with some of her national security advisers, again taking aim at trump's temperament, and suggesting his rhetoric was helping terrorist recruitment. mark, both campaigns are trying to use this incident to attack the other and gain the upper hand. who at this moment has it? >> i hate to make people think this is a rerun, but i think we saw today pretty much what we saw yesterday. both sides do think they can go on offense. i think the latest disclosures think this country needs to re-examine its procedures, but congress has just as much culpability there as any president over the last two. and hillary clinton is trying to show that donald trump's

unqualified. li donald trump is trying to show hillary clinton is insufficiently aggressive. i don't see anyone gaining advantage. >> i totally agree. i think it's a draw today, and you know, i can't imagine that the past 48 hours, listening to what the -- the very predictable things that trump has said about this issue, and about hillary clinton, and about the broader array of issues that are raised here, and the things that hillary clinton has said, mostly in response. i don't think that those things have done anything to move any movable voters, any available vote in either one of their camps. they're probably doing a little bit to solidify the support they already have, but it does not seem to me that either one of them is gaining appreciably in this argument. >> i will say, i find them both to be kind of hot on this issue. and obviously, it's an emotional issue and an important issue, and both want to project strength. but my gut feeling, at least some people in the country would like to see a little bit more of an optimistic, a little bit more

of a confident message about winning the war on terror, and not something that's so negative and so hot. >> i think that's probably right. and we talked yesterday about president obama. there are a lot of people who were critics of him, how he's handled the war on terror, but the one aspect is the way that he's handled, that i always find potent, politically, in some respects, is to have that kind of calm demeanor and suggest that this is a long -- this is a long battle and one where calmness and rationality may be the right cards to play. >> yep. all right. next topic, there have been plenty of recent polls suggesting the presidential race has tightened, but two surveys out today show good news for hillary clinton. a national poll from nbc news survey monkey has clinton up five points in a two-way, 50-45, amongst likely voters. clinton has the same lead in a four-way race, with the two third party candidates in the race. that is a wider gap than her two-point margin in the same poll earlier this month.

monmouth university has a florida poll out today that has clinton up 46-41% over trump. those are two polls that have been good for clinton, but before those polls, most of the recent ones have not been good for clinton. they showed the race tighter and trump ahead in some places. brooklyn has been dishing out conflicting messages on just how nervous they are and how nervous they think their supporters should be for the final weeks of this contest. for instance, yesterday, robby mook sent out a widely distributed fund-raising e-mail with the subject line, quote, the ways trump can get to 270 electoral votes. his dire warning read in part, quote, trump's path to the presidency is no longer a pipe dream. it is clear and it is real. yesterday, though, was also the day that look reportedly circulating a private 2000-word memo to donors that had a much different tone. it was aimed at curbing panic in a democratic race about a close race. that memo noted the electoral map that makes a trump presidency impossible, unless he sweeps pretty much every

battleground state, and it listed the numerous ways that clinton could with one or two wins block any path trump would have. so, john, which version of robby's reality is the real one? >> well, let's just note this. that just like with debates, there's a lot of managing of expectations and a lot of managing of emotions that go on in both campaigns, as we get down to the home stretch. and both of them are trying to play the goldilocks game. you want to try to be, especially if you're the front-runner, the expected winner if hillary clinton is the likely winner in this race, you want people to not be complacent, but you also want them to not be panicked. try to find the right kind of not too hot, not too cold. the memo that circulated yesterday, which shows hillary clinton with a lot more paths to 270 is closer to reality than the ones earlier when people were talking about a landslide for clinton and they didn't want fund-raisering to dry up. so they said, oh, no, donald trump could easily win the race. >> david plouffe has told us and others that trump has a zero

percent chance of winning and mary matalin says clinton has a zero percent chance of winning. i think trump has to win florida, north carolina, and ohio before we can talk about a path to get to victory. if he wins those three, there's a couple ways he can do it. he's still the underdog, even if he can win those three. but i think brooklyn has to be serious about this. they're not as panicked a as some of his supporters, if trump wince north carolina, florida, and ohio, all plausible for him to do, then, then brooklyn has to worry. because then their margin of error is greater than trump's, but it's still a race that they could lose. >> right. okay, now, david fahrenthold strikes again. "the washington post" reporter who's been giving donald trump a headache by investigating his charitable foundation has a new story out and it is a doozy. the latest report says that trump spent more than a quarter of a million dollars from his non-profit, to settle lawsuits. basically reaching agreements with people who were suing his private business by donating money to charity. instead of using his own money,

trump reportedly gave those charities cash that other people had donated to the foundation. mark, this story suggests that the trump foundation may have violated laws against self-dealing. there's another word for that, which is slush fund. how big a deal could this maybe be? >> i'm not minimizing it. it's another case where he may have to pay fines and he may have broken the law. but the serious thing is trump hired accountants and lawyers to deal with this foundation. and he's not an expert on the laws the covering foundations, but i question the judgment he has in hiring people. because the lawyers and accountants that allowed this, i think should lose their jobs. this is such bad judgment to do what this story says trump did. he should not be -- he should have points deducted from his capacity to offer himself to the country as a great leader and a great manager, if he pyred people that incompetent. >> if this story is true and the pam bondi story, which people are still reporting that and trying to figure that out, the

pay-for-play accusations. a slush fund allegation, a pay-for-play allegation or bribery. it appears to me that trump is way more corrupt, on the face of it, way more corrupt, than any allegation than the clinton foundation is, right? we -- a lot of people, you and -- you and i both have issues with the clinton foundation, how it has done business. but these two stories, and this one in particular are gratuitously corrupt. and we should, i think, hit really hard object fact that this is a guy who seems to be running a charity in a way to advance both political and business interests, rather than doing what charities are, in fact, supposed to do. nonprofit. >> i don't want to minimize what's alleged in the story and what trump seems to have done. it's horrible. it's potentially illegal. it's bad judgment, as i said. the people who did it for him, he should never have hired and it reflects badly on him. but this doesn't involve the government. he was not a government official. so i'm not sure corruption is right word. but it is reckless,

irresponsible, and selfish, what he did. and i'll say for a third time, someone who would hire accountants and lawyers who had either be that corrupt or that dishonest, i should say, or that sloppy, i got to question their judgment, as a leader. all right, up next, the gentleman from georgia, david perdue, senator from the peach state, he's a supporter of donald trump and he joins us next. later in the program, the early voting ground games in the presidential battlegrounds, a deeper dive, later on in the program. we'll be right back after this. i was out heremoking instead

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joining us now, senator david perdue from the great state of georgia. he has been a long and strong donald trump supporter. he joins us now from capitol hill in the russell rotunda center. thanks for joining us. >> good to be with you guys. >> tell us what you think the state of the presidential race is. is donald trump favored, underdog, or toss-up? >> i think he's touched a nerve

in the electorate. voter turnout was up over 60% in spring in the republican primary. and i lived that same thing back in 2013 and '14 in my race in georgia. and i think he's touched a nerve out there that's not going away. as a matter of fact, i don't believe these national polls right now. either way, i think there's a lot of noise in the system, and quite frankly, a lot of intensity behind trump's support really doesn't show up in the polls. so i actually think he's got a chance to win this thing. i do think it's going to be close in some battleground states. but i think the high ground is that lack of performance of the obama administration and the fact that hillary clinton is really offering no change in direction, and the people want that more than anything else. they were sold hope and change eight years ago, and neither happened. >> so when you say he's got a chance to win, can i take from that that you think he's still the underdog in this race? >> look, i operated every day and my race is an underdog. i know this guy, he's a fighter and east operating every day as if he is an underdog. my prediction is that he's going to win big.

i really believe it's bigger than donald trump, it's bigger than me. people realize that the direction we're take right now is we're failing. we've got right now the growth, gdp growth on a compound basis in the last eight years is under 1%. people are hurting out there, struggling to get from payday to payday. the way we look at that in washington is through the lens of the washington establishment sometimes misses that, and that be wiis what's going on right n. >> you're the ceo after fortune 500 company, right? >> right. >> i'm looking at a story that says that mr. trump in his business when he was facing legal problems, he agreed to make charitable donations to make his lawsuits go away and use money from his 501c charitable foundation to use those donations. would you consider that proper behavior on the part of a

businessman? >> first of all, aisi'm not sur can accept the premise of the question. if those things are true ande goes through a court and he's convi convicted, obviously, that's a problem. but that hasn't happened yet. we have the same thing on hillary's side. she was in a government position, taking personal advantage of a government position. so those are serious allegations. you know, the real issue right now, in my mind, is, people in america want to see a direction for the country. they want to have hope again. and right now, we're not seeing that out of the hillary campaign. i mean, honestly. we're talking about economic changes here that are increasing taxes, more regulation, smaller military. i mean, these are things that really bother people in a time when they see a crisis globally in this national security crisis. but also here at home economically. this debt is a very real issue right now. and we've seen no solutions from the hillary camp. >> well, senator wib, i'll stayh that point. i know you're a deficit hawk and you don't like the debt. there's not a single non-partisan analysis of donald trump's tax plan that doesn't suggest that it would add

trillions of dollars to the national debt. so, just make the case for why the tax plan is acceptable to a deficit hawk like you. >> well, i tell you what. i'm excited about it as a first step. if you get this economy going, that's one of four or five things that has to happen. and what he's talking about is tax reform, pushing back on regulations and unleashing this energy boom that we've been given, are great first steps. i would love to see us move to a repatriation tax elimination as well. we've got to deal with redundant agencies, saving social security and medicare, and arresting the spiraling nature of health care costs that i think he will begin to address in this campaign. i think as a first step, i'm very excited about it. >> senator, whether you've given private advice to the campaign or not about the debate, give us some advice here publicly. what should donald trump do -- >> it don't change a thing. >> what should he do in the debate? >> yeah, i don't think he's changing anything. i think right now, if he goes in there and takes the high ground that he's taking right now, and that is to address the failures of the obama administration, to

talk about the fact that hillary clinton will double down and give us a third term, and frankly, talk about the hopes and aspirations of america and how they've been disappointed, how the liberal progressive movement of a barack obama administration and now of a potential hillary clinton administration helped fail the very people they claim to champion. if he does that, it doesn't matter what the questions are. he'll come out on top on monday. >> give us an example of a question you would like to see lester holt ask hillary clinton in the debate. >> how do you put people back to work? she's got no experience doing that. he's hired tens of thousands of people, created thousands of jobs in the real world. that's what i ran on. look, he's had not a perfect career. nobody's had a perfect career, but he's had to survive in the free enterprise system. he knows how to fight, he knows how to fight for people and he's said that. i want an american president that will stand up for national interests and american interests and create a level playing field around the world, both in a national security perspective, but also in an economic perspective. and he'll do that. and i think that's going to become clear as we go through the next seven weeks. you know, guys, it's seven weeks

from today, as hard as that is to believe. but i'm optimistic that you're going toe so this intensity that's behind the trump campaign grow over the next few weeks. the ground game is taking force in my state and other states and i think north carolina, new hampshire, colorado, you're going to see a lot of increased activity there. >> i've got one last question for you, senator. i know you've expressed some disappointment that your fellow republicans have not unified more fully behind mr. trump. what do you think explains that? why is it that the party is not unified and why there are so many holdouts and critics of the party nominee. >> i hate to be blunt, but i think it's self-interest versus natural interest. we've got a stark contrast in two different directions offered by hillary clinton and donald trump. and i don't understand any republican, any conservative republican, thinking that a direction of hillary clinton would be better than a direction of donald trump. it's time to really put our big boy pants and big girl pants on and step up and tell the american people a better way.

and that's what thaey're hoping for in the next seven weeks. >> senator perdue, thanks so much for joining us. when we come back, we'll get schooled by the president of the national education association. after this, a brief and enjoyable recess. (announcer vo) when you have type 2 diabetes, there's a moment of truth. and now with victoza® a better moment of proof. victoza® lowers my a1c and blood sugar better than the leading branded pill, which didn't get me to my goal.

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>> eskelson. >> good phonics. >> i know you're a big hillary clinton supporter, but start with education. on the issues that matter to school reform across the country, why is that that hillary clinton is your choice and what's wrong with what donald trump have said about this issue? >> well, we don't have enough time to really go into the breadth of what's wrong with donald trump taking millions and millions of existing dollars from the kpusing education budget, which is special education, title i, reading tutors, that kind of thing to give to private schools, not a good idea, but for hillary, you take a look at where she started her career. she started her career as a young lawyer, saying, i'm going to fight for the rights of poor kids who weren't receiving the special ed services that they deserve. she has fought for special education for preschool, for affordable college, for dreamers, you name it. she's really put families and

communities and kids and their education access first. >> understanding that she has a biography that she you find appealing, and it's not that surprising that the nea would be on the side of the democrat, what's one idea that she's put forward in terms of education reform that you think is new and important? >> one of the things that really appealed to us about hillary clinton, when i was talking to her about her plans, what are your priorities? what do you -- what would you do for public education? she gave me the best answer i have ever received from any politician. i ask them that question all the time. she answered with a question. and she said, what are teachers saying? what's getting in their way? what is it that's an obstacle? what do they need to really move ahead? can you put together some third grade teachers for me? i want to talk to them. she said, i have a lot of ideas, but i won't know if they're good ideas or bad ideas until i talk

to the people who actually know the those kids. i was like, i love you! to have a politician at that level say, i'd talk to a teacher before i would think about pushing some kind of policy. that was what was -- that's what gave us no child left untested for 14 years, a bunch of well-meaning politicians who never asked that third grade teacher what are the unintended consequences. she did. >> i know hillary clinton is a big supporter of you and your organization and you're a big supporter of her, but is there any issue you know of where hillary clinton and the nea disagree? >> you know, i -- i was just captured by her saying, you will always have a seat at the table. i don't expect that having three teachers in the same room, that three teachers are going to agree on exactly -- >> but are there any big -- are there any big priorities or

issue positions of the nea that you know of that hillary clinton doesn't agree with you on? >> in every single education issue, from affordable college to preschool, to kids having to have the wrap around services that they need, she's with america's kids. she's with our families and she's with us. >> so the answer is no, she agrees with you on everything, right? >> no, there are so many issues out there and so many ways to get to the goals, she has agreed with us on every goal that we've talked about for our students. >> okay. i know -- i know you're pretty negative, to say the least, about donald trump, and i know you're also very optimistic about america and the american people. i just want you to reflect on the reality that donald trump will get at least 40% of the vote in this election and almost substantially more. what does that say, given your view of donald trump, about the country now? >> that's a very good yes. i think there's going to be a lot of analysis and a lot of books written about the trump

effect. about people actually rallying to a message that can be so hateful and so divisive. we're actually seeing that sometimes in our schools now, where kids are bullying other kids, because of their ethnicity or a little girl who's wearing a head scarf. where there are studies being done on that, as well. we're looking at role models, when we look at candidates. our children are watching. and they're watching this campaign. i think it's frightening some of them. >> let me ask you this question, with given what you've just said, again, as mark suggested, you're a pretty harsh critic of donald trump. a lot of people have assumed that the hispanic vote would be -- hillary clinton would do very well with hispanics. she seems to be doing very well in terms of the percentage that she's attracting, but there's a pretty widespread sense that perhaps there's not the same level of enthusiasm for her candidates, among hispanic voters, especially young hispanic voters, as expected by

the campaign and that brarack obama had. what explains that? why are hispanic voters not more into hillary clinton? >> i look at the people in my circle of influence and it's pretty solid with hillary. so i think you're going to be looking at polls, i think you're going to be looking at a lot of things that change over the course, depending on what the articles in the newspaper today are. >> but there's not that much time left in the election. donald trump has said a lot of things really offensive. she's a champion for a lot of traditional issues like immigration reform. how can it be at this point that hispanic enthusiasm is problematic. even the campaign acknowledges that right now, that is one of the problems they face. >> i think this has been such a negative campaign that it's turned off a lot of people on politics in general. there are a whole lot of folks that just are tuning it all out. because it's so overwhelmingly negative. but election day is 49 days

away. and one of the things the national education association is going to do, and 3 million of our members, who understand how important it is, who sits in that office, who sits in your governor's office, your senate, your schoolboard races, we're going to be out there with a the ground game. we are going to be out there knocking on doors and making sure people hear from us why we're supporting hear. >> lily eskelsen garcia, thank you so much for coming on the show. when we come back, the great expectations game. who is winning, after this. ugh. heartburn.

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and once again, the nation is now wrestling with the fallout of some more footage showing an unarmed african-american man killed by a white police officer. this case comes from tulsa, oklahoma, where 40-year-old terrance crutcher was fatally shot sunday night.

videos of the incident released by the police yesterday, and they appear to show crutcher with his hands up before he falls to the ground. the officer who fired her gun claimed he was not cooperating with authorities. on the scene today, lick luc went on the steve harvey radio program and called the incident, quote, unbearable, and intolerable. john, we've seen shootings like this, of course, many times over the last few years. it's become a campaign issue at times. do you think, in this moment in the campaign, 50 days to go, that lit -- this incident or others like it could become a dominant issue. and how will clinton and trump deal with it, when it does? >> we saw this not that long ago, mark. you will recall back in july, when we had these two -- the incidents that took place in baton rouge and minneapolis, where we were yesterday, and those issues -- those incidents still haunt those communities at this point. and they became a foebl point, where they dominated news for several days, when there were two of them, and there was a lot the shootings, obviously, in dallas, that came at the same

time. so, the individual instance -- this one is pretty horrific, on basis of the videotape. but given how inured a lot of the country has become to these issues, it often takes more than one to really break through. and in this instance, hillary clinton is addressing it in the way she's addressed a lot of she's shootings in the past. trump, so far, seems to be ignoring it. it seems to me that this -- this one may not catalyze a giant debate, even though it should. >> yeah, the national and local press must always cover these cases. and i believe the consciousness has been raised among the media, that these cases must be covered. whether there are protests or not, whether there's some new angle on it or not, they must be covered. and candidates need to address it. i'm glad hillary clinton did, and i suspect donald trump might or should, he certainly should, but the reality is, as we get closer to election day, the bar for stories breaking through for the candidates to talk about them, becomes pretty high. it takes something like the terrorist attack that we saw over the weekend for the

campaigns to sort of shift to the message that they're on, and that's just a reality and it will become more and more difficult for anything to get attention, except the very biggest things, until after election day. >> yeah, this is a pretty big thing. but as i say, it's become sadly all too common. so they're also sadly, easy for people to not focus on to the extent they should. let's also talk about a different story, that thing a kennedy is saying about a bush, a clinton. kathleen townsend kennedy posted a picture of george h.w. bush to facebook yesterday along with these eight words. quote, the president told me he's voting for hillary, with two exclamation points. a spokesman for bush 41 said the former president's vote will be private. mark, my question for you is, if george herbert walker bush is, in fact, voting for hillary clinton, does that and will that matter? >> you know, it's getting a lot of attention today. i think most people assume that at least some of the bushes are

going to vote for her. surprising, though, i mean, obviously, he didn't say it on camera and the bush folks are being quiet about it. it's not getting quite the attention i thought it would. you and i have discussed this, john. the clinton campaign realizes that you shapushing republican may not be in its interests anymore, for all sorts of reason, including the press' democrat turnout and right now getting democrats enthusiastic is important. getting endorsements from the bushes may not be the best way to energize the democratic base. >> this summer we saw it, when hillary clinton was trying to basically say donald trump is an abnormal republican, and that there's space for normal republicans to come to her side. she rolled out a lot of republican endorsements, and i thought that they would have some big republican endorsements up their sleeves. whether it might be this bush or maybe even george w. bush coming to her side by the end of the fall, i'd now agree with you, though, that if they ever had that plan, they may now be rethinking that plan, because they need a lot more energy in the democratic base than they

currently have and this is not the way to get it. >> and the bushes don't just represent the democratic party, they represent the establishment. and we've long see if donald trump has a chance to win this election, it's because he's the anti-establishment candidate. and i think it's easy for trump to go out to working class areas, say, in ohio or pennsylvania and say, hey, the clintons and the bushes, who have owned the white house, are ganging up on me. do we want more of the same, that the bushes and the clintons brought you, or do we want to go in a different direction? i'm not sure if either george bush planned to stay with hillary clinton for an endorsement, i'm not 100% sure unlike a few weeks ago, that they would take the opportunity. >> not only is it true, the thing you just said about them being establishment, but they don't even have that much purchase, real purchase, with moderate suburban republicans anymore. the bush name, as jeb bush proved, the bush name is not worth what it used to be. >> first presidential debate less than a week away, which means that both the candidates and their campaigns are making their final efforts now to set

expectations. take, for instance, donald trump last night on the o'reilly factor. >> if she treats me with respect, i will treat her with respect. it really depends. people ask me that question, are we going to go out there and do this or that? i can talk about her, deleting e-mails after she the gets a subpoena from congress and lots of other things. i can talk about her record, which is a disaster. >> i expect you'll do anyway. >> and i will be doing that, and so we're going to go back and forth and she's got a lot of baggage, she's been there a long time. >> all right, and here's what hillary clinton told jimmy fallon last night about the unpredictability of trump. >> what trump are you going to get? do you have any idea? he seems to be changing a little bit. >> look, he's trying to somehow convince people to forget everything he's said and done. you know, and i don't think that he's going to get away with

that, at least, you know, jung us on who we are, what we've done, what we've stood for. and maya angelou has this great line. i've admired her so much. i was fortunate enough to get to know her. she says, when someone shows you who he is, believe him the first time. >> so john, both candidates were talking about what they expect, what they plan to do, what they don't plant to do. trying to set the table, as we get closer. they're also going to be trying to play down their own expectations. so who's winning the pre-debate skirmishes right now? >> i don't know. i'm not sure -- look, the people, i think, are so set on what they think. we've discussed this a few times now. i think a lead up assumes hillary clinton's the better debate, so she's going to be the favorite. i think among the average voters, i think a lot of trump supporters think that trump is going to clean hillary clinton's clock and vice versa on the democratic side. i'm not sure any of this expectation setting is going to matter at all this time. because this is such an unusual debate, with so much expectation, and such huge,

high-profile combatants. >> i reserve the right to change my mind before monday, but i'll say this. i think one thing that's working in the clinton's campaign favor, and they've suddenly laid the groundwork for this, is to try to get the media to judge this not as a crazy, unorthodox contest, but to judge it by normal standards. and i think they feel confident if the debate is judged by the normal standards, the way a presidential candidate debate is judged, they have a much better chance of clinton doing well. that doesn't mean that, you know, the normal standards are all that healthy for democracy. but i think they'll be comfortable if it's judged the normal way, which is a lot about criticism, a lot about gaffes and a lot about big moments. i think they're fine with that, but they don't want trump to be judged by some trump standard. >> i'll ask you this question. i'm interested in your answer. i don't know what you think about this. what is -- duke that the moderators should do fact checking realtime? if donald trump lies gratuitously on stage, is it

their job to step in, or do they have to leave that to hillary clinton to do that job? >> i think they should break the rules and let the candidate get in, if the candidate wants to check this other side, i don't think they should let the moderators do it. >> i'm still thinking that one true. i haven't made up my mind. i'll get around to it before monday. >> up next, early voting is about to begin.we'll talk abouth before election day when we come right back. for more than a third of energy-related carbon emissions. the challenge is to capture the emissions before they're released into the atmosphere. exxonmobil is a leader in carbon capture. our team is working to make this technology better, more affordable so it can reduce emissions around the world. that's what we're working on right now. ♪ energy lives here. i'm raph. my name is anne. i'm one of the real live attorneys you can talk to through legalzoom. don't let unanswered legal questions hold you up, because we're here, we're here,

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as we get closer and closer to tlelection day, two of our colleagues here at bloomberg politics are counting up votes in key battleground states for their ongoing eight-part serieses that we're calling battlegrounds 2016. this week is all about early voting. we're joined now by bloomberg politics contributor, sasha issenbe issenberg, and steve acino, who is a producer on this show. it's hard to tell which of you is smarter, more handsome, or shorter. which is all about early voting. what's the deal? >> we worked at clarity campaign labs to dig into the campaign file. early voting begins this friday in minnesota. people can begin voting. it's six weeks of election day. more than a third of the electorate will vote before election day. and it really changes the strategy and tactics the candidates need to get to their win numbers in these battleground states. >> let's focus on trump for a second and think about what the states are here. one assumes the clinton campaign has more of an infrastructure

and more of a capacity to move on early voting. where's trump in this game? >> trump's very reliant on state parties through the rnc. spent some time in ohio, looking at their -- the ohio republican party knows how to get to its voters in the early dote period. the day you send in a request to the secretary of state, the state party already has your name going to a direct mail vendor. the goal is that you get a piece of mail. if you haven't returned your ballot after ten days, they chase you down for it. the challenge for trump is, they know how to turn out people who are going to vote for the republican ticket. but trump's math in some of these states will require eating into the democratic base. and the republican parties may not know how to mobilize those voters in the early vote period. >> is that true in ohio? >> i think it will be a challenge in ohio. there's a big republican ticket in ohio. obviously, we talk about the senate race, but down to county offices are tupprning out republican voters. and some of the trump voters might be voting for democrats the rest of the ticket, but him

at the top. >> steve, talk about the democrats in the early voting. what are the stakes on that side for hillary clinton? >> yeah, so, like sasha said, we're going to see really the disparities between these two campaigns when it comes to infrastructure. and hillary clinton has the larger infrastructure. she's got staff all over the country. and particularly, iowa is going to be a key state, where we can watch her. in part because iowa is a state, not -- there's a -- the amount of early vote there is not the largest in any state in the country, but it's one of the earliest. it starts next week. what we're going to see is we're going to see hillary clinton try to turn out her more unreliable voters in iowa, that she really needs to win. because when you look at the math in iowa and other states, republicans really do have a larger base. the reason democrats win those states is because they're able to reach out and turn out more unreliable voters. this is who we're talking about when we talk about the obama coalition. and if she can do that, then you can win states like iowa, nevada, and other ones.

but she's going to need a head start, and democrats have been historically better at turning out early voters than republicans have. >> steve, sasha, rather, north carolina is an incredibly interesting state, because it's got a diverse electorate, a changing electorate, president obama won it once, but governor romney won it. talk about the situation there. >> 57% of north carolinians voted early in 2012. the democrats have done a good job of getting african-americans to move up their voting to early voting period, which is why the recent court decision is overturning some of the election reform laws are important there. what we could see, hillary clinton's path to victory in north carolina relies on -- could rely on just mobilizing the existing democratic coalition. if she does that successfully, in the beginning of the early vote period, she could know by late october that she basically has a state in the bag and start to move some of her persuasion spending to other states where she wants to be more persuadable with other voters. >> another state you looked at, and you can fight it out for who

answers this, nevada, where i was last week, kind of amazed about -- this is a pretty safe democratic state, in fact, for the last two cycles, and now there's polling that shows trump ahead. when you factor in the early vote, tell us what's going on there. >> nevada is actually a big early voting state. it's a smaller window. it's about 2 1/2 weeks. but they've been really good at turning out a lot of voters in that time. in that condensed period. 62% of voters in 2012 voted early. those are voters who are still on the rolls now. and so, the thing -- what that -- the reason that matters is because if donald trump is going to win those states, he's going to have to turn out persuadable voters. he has less time to do that, and as of now, donald trump isn't on the air in nevada. so hillary clinton is trying to make a play for those persuadable voters. and we have yet to see donald trump really go there, as a traditional campaign would, and try to convince them. >> i'm going to ask you like the dumbest question in the world. and i think i -- i'm not the dumbest person in the world, but i'm going to pretend to be someone who doesn't really understand this at all, okay?

why do we -- if you're a candidate, why do you care whether someone votes early or votes late? >> it just depends who you -- there are different ways of approaching this, and we see in different states. some campaigns say, let's clear out our most reliable voters early, so as time goes on, we can reach into the more difficult parts of the electorate to mobilize people who are unreliable voters or persuade. others see it the other way, which i think is a story we sort of see in iowa, where we have a long period. let's use the early period to go to people who are not reliable election day voters, and let them take advantage of the convenience of voting early. part of it depends on the composition of the electorate in these states. i think what we will see, this is the challenge you see in nevada, is that trump's sort of late start both on the airwaves for persuasion and on the ground for mobilization means his strategic path, he's going to have fewer options as you get closer to election day. but this is one of the great debates that happens among campaign tacticians. if you have a month to turn out voter voters, what sequence do you

want them to vote in? >> the notion of, let's bank some votes, makes a lot -- always want to bank some votes. so these are really tactical decisions. >> if you can bank enough votes early and feel like you have a good handle on that state, you can pull out and divert resources to another state you really need to win. >> you're a smart kid, yaccino, sasha, great job. every tuesday, these guys, here, being really smart and we're going to play the victory lab animation next week, because i love that thing. read all about it, the whole detailed thing on bloombergpolitics.com right thousannow. coming up, we'll hear what it's like to run for vice president from two people who know the process all too well, with dan quayle and john lieberman. and you can also listen to us on the road at bloomberg radio, 99.1 f.m. we'll be right back. we've got a saying about rain, too:

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as the health of both presidential candidates came under scrutiny last week, new attention turned to their running mates, who would be just one tragedy away from the executive seat if they get elected. we talked about this on the circ circus. for that episode, our co-host, mark mckinnon, sat down for conversations with two men, who know from the scrutiny that comes with being number two. former vice president dan quayle, who served under george herbert walker bush, and al gore's 2000 running mate, joe lieberman. >> because hillary got sick this week and had to go off the trail, it shined the spotlight on the importance the vice president plays as one who's a heartbeat away from the presidency. how are you? markckinnon, great to meet you. how are you, mr. vice president? >> hey, buddy! good to see you.

>> you know, there are a lot of jokes about the vice presidency, that comes from our history. one of the oldest is the two brothers. one went off to see, the other became vice president, and neither was ever heard from again. you know? but, it's much more than that. >> can you tell us what it was like, when you go the call, and you learned that you were the vice presidential nominee? >> i was walking back to the hotel and we had beepers in those days, we didn't have cell phone. this beeper came off, said a call was coming in. got back to the hotel, given a phone number, and they said, call it. and i get jim baker. and i go, oh, darn, i've lost. >> expecting to get bad news? >> well, yes. because i was expecting the vice president, george bush, to call me. >> so when it was baker -- >> when it was baker, i assumed the worse. he said, hang on for the veep. the vice president.

the vice president gets on and says, i would like to offer you officially the vice presidency. and i said, i'm honored and thrilled, i'll be there. i said, what's my assignment? he says, you need to show up at the spanish plaza at 4:00. and this is 2:00. i said, well, where in the heck is the spanish plaza. he says, i don't know, but this is your first assignment. >> figure it out. >> don't screw it up. one of the first calls i get is from president nixon. and he says, you know, i was about your age when eisenhower picked me. let me just tell you, he says, your life has changed forever. >> most people say that when you're making this decision, the foremost consideration must be, who has the capacity, ability, and experience to step into the presidency. >> ultimately, the person that the presidential nominee chooses has to pass the most important test, which is the american people will think he or she are capable of being president. >> tell me a little bit about what it was like to figure out

that you were on the short list in 2000. >> right. toward the end, it was down, interestingly, to john kerry, john edwards, and me. >> wow. >> and the money, the smart money over the weekend seemed to be that it was going to be john edwards. warren christopher apparently said to al gore, mr. vice president, this election will say more about you than it does about the person you're selecting to be your running mate. and if you select senator edwards, you will have to explain to the american people why you're taking a person who two years ago, was practicing law in north carolina and you're putting him second to the most powerful governmental position in the world. and apparently that turned the conversation. >> can you tell me what it was like serving as vice president when he got sick at the japanese dinner, where he's incapacitated? >> i get a call from sam skinner

about 4:00 in the morning. and he says, we've had a problem in tokyo. the president passed out at dinner. 30 seconds later, barbara bush is on the line. i said, barbara, what the heck is going on over there? she says, oh, he overdid it. i told him not to play an extra set of tennis. he's fine, she's got the flu. she said, don't worry about it. >> she was the real second in demand, right? >> exactly. >> do the voters have a right to know what the status of the candidates' health is? >> i think candidates have a responsibility to reveal their base line health condition. >> i've always been for disclosure, but it's not as important as the media makes it out to be. >> what's it like to be an ex-vice president? >> it's not bad. >> all right, thanks to former vice president dan quayle and former senator, joe lieberman. you can catch "the circus" every week on showtime, sundays at 8:00 p.m. eastern. john and i will be right back. i love that my shop is part of the morning ritual around here. people rely on that first cup and i wouldn't want to mess with that. but when (my) back pain got bad,

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bloombergpolitics.com right now. you can check out our fancy new poll decoder, where we break down the polls. we show you a detailed picture of which demographic groups support which candidates for president. it's fascinating. until tomorrow, thanks for watching. sayonara. >> "hardball" with chris matthews is next. less than a week. let's play "hardball". >> good evening. i'm chris matthews in washington. well, it's six days now to the first debate between hillary clinton and donald trump, and terrorism is on the minds of many. in response to this weekend's terror attacks in new york, new jersey, and minnesota, donald trump has called for knocking the hell out of isis, profiling people here in the usa, and severely limiting immigration. also treating terror suspects as, as he put it, enemy combatants. for her part, hillary clinton called