campaign on that canceled planned trip to the civil rights museum. we've asked them about it, they apparently don't want to talk about it. but that tuesday in north carolina was the day keith lamont scott was shot. and we have four straight nights of protests since, including good evening. i'm in for chris matthews. the first presidential debate between donald trump and hillary clinton is coming up this monday night and the candidates seem to be preparing in very different ways. hillary clinton has spent three days off the trail this week. she's been studying up 0 debate material and watching video of trump's past debate performances. according to "the new york times," the goal is to get under his skin, quote. mrs. clinton has a thick dossier on trump including analysis and assumptions about his psychological make-up. clinton advisers describe as critical to understanding how to knock mr. trump off balance.

mrs. clinton concluded that catching mr. trump in a lie during the debate is not enough to beat him. she needs the huge television audience to see him as temperamentally unfit for the presidency and that she has the power to unhinge him. here was his campaign manager kelly anne conway earlier today. >> i don't think he's locked up for a cabin for two days. he's a brilliant man. >> is he doing mock debates and if so, who's playing the part of hillary. >> no one is playing part of hillary. we all know hillary clinton very well. she's easily flummoxed. she never anticipated our comeback in the last five years. >> for more now, i'm joined by hugh hewitt and jonathan capehart, opinion writer for

"the new york post." the trump campaign loves this contrast, theyed that clinton is huddled with a team of researchers and psychologists and they're spending all this time on it and trump will show up and be himself. that's the contrast they like. do you think his actual approach, though, is that hands off or is he quietly behind the scenes doing more studying than i realized. >> what i saw on the stage is that he is a practiced television professional who spent hundreds of hours on stage but he is not a binder breaker as kelly anne conway just did. secretary clinton's greatest strength -- everyone has gone to high school. she's the toughest teacher in the high school, the ap teacher with the hidden heart of gold. she will kill him. he will kill her if she tries to bait him. he's the better performer, she's the better student. >> risk for clinton if she shows up with attacks designed to get under his skin and as they say,

unhinge him? >> i think secretary clinton is in a damned if situation. if she goes on the attack first, personally attacks him, she's -- you know, there's a danger of her looking like the ap teacher with the hidden heart of gold or as someone said, i think on our air, that you know, she might look like tracey fleck from the movie "election." she's annoying but hypersmart, totally determined and motivated. i think there's a lot of psy-ops going on here. i do think that donald trump runs the risk of at a time when polls show that people view him as someone who is temperament temperamentally unfit and not ready to be president 0 to sort of wing it on a night when many people think that the biggest

television audience ever will be watching, two people debate to see who should sit in the oval office arguably, the most important and toughest job in the world. >> hugh, hillary clinton had a little different preparation for this than donald trump. the democratic primaries it was basically one-on-one with bernie sanders. she got more of an experience like she's beginning to have on monday night. the republican primaries, ten candidates, commercial breaks, trump could talk for two minutes, disappear for ten minutes. this in many ways is a new setting. to be in a more rigorous environment, he's going to have to fill a lot more time. it's less about attacking the opponent, more about proving substance. do you think he's up to it, filling 90 minutes in a way he didn't have to in the primaries. >> very much so. i watched him closely. he stays on podium. he's physically up to the task. it won't be a problem for him. i don't know if she's fully recovered from the pneumonia. i have to say, for the parents out there who just head jonathan

reference the movie "election," don't have your kids watch that movie. she's the prohibitive favorite. the patriots are going in to play the browns a week later. she is the patriots. donald trump is the browns. >> jonathan? >> a couple things to keep in mind that hugh brought up. this is terrain that donald trump has not trod before. it's a 90-minute debate and no audience reaction. if you looked at those debates and the 15, 16 other people, he fed off the applause, the booze or the laughter or the cheers from the audience. there will be none of that. that is donald trump's oxygen. whether he can sustain a 90-minute performance one-on-one with no commercial breaks without the ability to hide remains to be seen.

i'm not convinced. >> jonathan capehart, hugh hewitt, thanks for the time. >> thank you. up next, two people who know what it's like to get ready for the biggest stage in presidential politics. that is straight ahead, this is "hardball," the place for politics.

welcome back to "hardball." the outcome of the first presidential debate between hillary clinton and donald trump depends in large part on whether

they can successfully execute their strategies once they come face to face on monday night. republican pollster frank luntz says for hillary clinton to win, she is going to need to prove her case that donald trump is unfit for office. here's his advice to clinton. says, quote, her mission is to demonstrate that every time he talks on the global stage, his words could defile the office, embarrass the country, and yes, even provoke a war. your objective should be to put donald trump and everything he has stood for on trial. as for trump, he needs to break that narrative and deflect clinton's attempts to box him. conservative commentator pat buchanan wrote, trump has to convince a plurality of voters who seem prepared to vote for him that he is not a terrible risk and that he will be a president of whom they can be proud. the trump on stage at hofstra university will have 90 minutes to show that the malicious cartoon of donald trump is a libellous lie. but he says, trump does not have

to show a mastery of foreign and domestic policy details. he has to meet and exceed expectations, which are not terribly high. i'm joined now by msnbc political analyst, rick tyler, who played donald trump in mock debates, when he was an adviser to the cruz campaign, as well as former michigan governor, jennifer granholm, senior adviser to the pro-hillary super pac, correct the record. well, rick tyler, with an introduction like that, let's start with you. if you want to prepare a candidate to face donald trump on this stage, you've done it. the clinton campaign's trying to do it right now. what's your advice to them? >> i think it's probably feeding his own words to him. and that is, she needs to memorize a lot of his quotes about foreign and domestic policy and some of the absurdities he said and just challenge hill on that. having said that, i think that she has to convince the country that she is likable and honest and is in command of the facts. those are her strengths. donald trump has to convince people he has the temperament to be president. my speculation and my guess is

that donald trump will show up and be disciplined for this 90-minute debate. and because he's graded on a bell curve, he'll probably perform very well. >> jennifer granholm, let's pick it up there. if that's what happens, if kellyanne conway, who's been trying to discipline donald trump, she's been doing a pretty good job keeping him off twitter, i would say. he certainly toned it down on there if that is the standard. if she succeeds in getting him to show up at this debate and doing what rick tyler is talking about, that he's there, trying to look presidential, he's not trying to mix it up, we're not seeing the primary season donald trump that we saw in the debates, what does hillary clinton do? does she try to prod him, try to provoke him, or just try to be more presidential than him on that stage? >> well, i'm sure there will be some element of trying to play his words back to him and see how he responds. i'm sure there'll be some element of drawing out and calling him out on the lies that he's told in the past. i betcha there'll be some kind of debate bingo card, which lists the top ten donald trump

lies, like, you know, that he opposed the war in iraq or opposed going into libya. but what this is really for her is a chance in an unfiltered way to talk to people and say why she is going to fight for them. what is in her heart, to come across, and i think rick is right about this, to come across in a way that counters the impression that the right has tried to build up about her, that she's not likable, but that she really is. she's got a sense of humor. everybody knows she knows the policy. she's got that down. but she has a chance to speak directly to people about why she's going to fight for them. and why he is completely unacceptable. >> what's the key, rick tyler? you've studied him. you've gone head to head with him. what's the key? if you want to throw donald trump off his game in one of these debates, what do you do? >> i think that's exactly what he's prepared for. feed his words to him, where it's obvious that what he has said is wrong and she's trying to make a fool of him, or to

mock him, somehow. that would normally get under his skin. it may get under his skin, but he can't allow it to. and i think that's probably what his debate team is coaching him on, that if he gives in to that temptation, that he's going to lose. >> and jennifer granholm, let me ask you about the expectations that we have a pat buchanan quote there. i keep thinking back to george w. bush, al gore, those 2000 debates, those fall 2000 debates. the expectation gap heading into those debates. al gore was supposed to be this peerless debater. george w. bush was supposed to be sort of clumsy on stage. those were the perceptions when people saw them head-to-head, they were surprised in many cases. they say, well, bush was a little better than i thought, and gore was maybe a little weak. that disparity ended up benefiting bush. are you concerned that could happen with trump here, too? >> of course! correct the record has done a compilation of all of the network anchors who have admitted that he's being graded on a curve. so, we're hopeful that, you know, stations like msnbc, nbc,

are going to -- >> but gender -- >> -- hold him to the same standard. >> can i ask you a question. not from the standpoint of a top-down, what the media tells people to think, perspective. i'm telling you, from the perspective of americans who have seen a version of donald trump in the primary debates, who was very sort of in your face with opponents, if a different donald trump shows up at this debate, just to the everyday voter watching them on tv, forget what i say or anybody says in the media, are you concerned how that voter is going to react? >> yeah, but here's the thing. she has an opportunity to point this out. the man has spent his whole life conning people. and here he is, conning you again. mr. con man is now conning you into thinking that he can be presidential. this is one time. this is 90 minutes. but remember, he's got a full record that we can continue to remind you about. don't be fooled. >> the only problem with that, governor, is that, you know, there's going to about 100 million people that are going to tune into this debate and a

significant number of them haven't been paying that close of attention, certainly not like you and i and there's not going to be the context. there's not going to be enough time to explain on either side, you know, to prosecute, if you like, hillary's lack of leadership as secretary of state or donald trump's many scandals over the years. not to develop them. so people may come and look at donald trump, and if he is disciplined, and they'll see a donald trump they didn't expect. it's always about expectations. if they come to say, this is the guy everyone's been talking about, seems kind of reasonable to me. and it will be -- actually, my prediction is both of the candidates will probably do fairly well in the debate. i don't think there'll be any defining moments of a winner or a loser. and that's usually how most debates go. it will be the post-narrative of the debate. the day after. that's the day the campaigns can never forget. they've got to make sure they get their story out there. and whatever narrative develops out of that, that's who will win the debate. >> yeah, i think that's true. i agree with that. >> rick tyler and jennifer granholm, i've got end to it there. thank you both. i appreciate it. some good pre-game talk right there.

up next, the big challenges facing donald trump heading into that first debate. hillary clinton has got the lead in the polls now and a majority of americans say they have serious questions about whether trump can actually be president. the plausibility test. that's ahead. you're watching "hardball," the place for politics. good thing geico offers affordable renters insurance. with great coverage it protects my personal belongings should they get damaged, stolen or destroyed. [doorbell] uh, excuse me. delivery. hey. lo mein, szechwan chicken, chopsticks, soy sauce and you got some fortune cookies. have a good one. ah, these small new york apartments... protect your belongings. let geico help you with renters insurance.

all right. welcome back to "hardball." we're just three days away now from the first presidential debate between hillary clinton and donald trump and heading into that big showdown, let's take a look at where the race stands right now and what the big challenges are facing the candidates, as they head into it. let's give you, first of all, nationally, it's good news for hillary clinton this week. remember, last week, the stories were about the polls tightening. maybe it was the fallout from hillary clinton's health scare at ground zero on the 9/11 anniversary, but this week, look at this. the past three national polls, a new one out just tonight, mcclatchy and marist puts her up by seven points. our own nbc news/"wall street journal" poll, seven.

nbc news survey monkey online poll puts her ahead again. these are healthy leads that clinton seems to be reestablishing an average, all the polls out there, a three-point lead. that's been trending up for her as well. that's good news for hillary clinton. we can also show you this. the polls we have out there raise a real question about where the ceilings are for these candidates. how high can they climb in their support? and really the question is, is hillary clinton's ceiling higher than donald trump's? and look at this. if you go back to the beginning of september, you can count nine polls where hillary clinton has scored 48% or higher. nine polls where she's hit at least 48%. how many for donald trump? zero. so hillary clinton has been able to climb higher in these polls so far than donald trump has. when the race has tightened, it hasn't so much been because donald trump's numbers are rising, it's been because hillary clinton's support has been falling. so that could be key as we get to election day. is that offering us a clue about whether the ceiling is just too low for donald trump? that's something to think about. also this. think about this heading into the debates. some basic questions voters have

about these candidates. a simple question here, is the candidate qualified to be president? look at that advantage hillary clinton has over donald trump, just 30% of voters right now saying donald trump is qualified to be president. so there's a plausibility test there. a plausibility problem right now for donald trump. that's something he has to address at this debate. how about this, as well. the question, does the candidate not respect ordinary americans? hillary clinton's numbers not good there. 48% say she does not respect ordinary americans. the trump campaign has been trying to drive that message home focusing on her deplorables comment. but look at the number for donald trump. 60% of americans say he doesn't respect ordinary americans. that's a challenge for him. how about and this one. we don't see numbers like this in presidential races, but we do this year. the question is, is the candidate racist? half the voters right now say that donald trump is racist. just 21% for hillary clinton. of course, with the news in charlotte this week, the news in tulsa, the issues of race and

policing, likely to come up in this debate. that number probably worth keeping in mind, as well. so some of the numbers to have in your heads as we head to the debate. right now, we're going to head over to the "hardball" roundtable. mckay coppins, a senior political writer with buzz feed. jeanne skein -- zano, a national political reporter for bloomberg. and i've been too slow walking over here, so i'll keep talking as i climb the stage, take my seat, and say hello, mckay coppins. all those numbers we just ran through there. is it realistic to think after 90 minutes of debate on monday night against hillary clinton, that that number of people who say he's not qualified to be president, that that falls? that the number of people who say he's a racist, that that falls. can he make progress on monday night? >> he might be able to chip away on the margins. look, when half of voters, 50% say the candidate is racist, that's a pretty heavy charge to level in this country. and i think most voters take that very seriously. and i don't think most people watching a debate for 90

minutes, no matter how well a candidate performs, is going to change their minds overnight. if he starts a -- turns over a new leaf in this debate and continues it through election day, maybe he can chip away at it a little bit more. but i don't think that you can fundamentally change the electorate's perception of you with one debate. >> and this is something i've been wondering about, because we talk so much about, these are the two most unpopular nominees ever put forward by the parties. and hillary clinton's personal negative numbers, unfavorable numbers, they are through the roof. donald trump's in most polls, they're through the roof and even a little bit more through the roof than hers. they're both very hard. my question when i start seeing poll numbers like that, on the question of racism, i don't know if this can really be measured in polling. is there a possibility, though, he is more unlikable, more severely objectionable to people than she is. they may not like both of them, but the degree to which they dislike him is more intense. >> absolutely. and that's what the clinton team is hoping, right? they're hoping they can make the case. this new ad out today, where she has this horrific series of statements that he made about women.

and she has these young girls watching these statements. it is horrifying for any woman or father or brother to watch this thing. that's what they're hoping to do, say, even if you don't trust her, even if you have issues with hillary clinton, you cannot trust him. he is far, far worse. and of course, the trump campaign is hoping to do the same thing with hillary clinton. they're hoping to say that, you know, i may not be your favorite republican, but i am far better than this clinton or any clinton because that is something that brings republicans together. they're hoping that's true and we'll have to see. >> you mentioned the ad the clinton campaign is out, we have that. let's take a look at what the clinton campaign is putting up here. ♪ >> i'd look her right in that fat ugly face of hers. she's a slob. she ate like a pig. a person who's flat-chested is very hard to be a 10. does she have a good body? no. does she have a fat [ bleep ]? absolutely.

>> you treat women with respect? >> i can't say that either. >> all right. >> uh. >> all right. so by the same token here, with all these negatives we just went through with donald trump, all the negatives the clinton campaign sees there, he's within striking distance of her, especially when you start looking at some of these battleground state polls, he is not that far behind. so he needs something, but he maybe doesn't need that much. >> well, he needs number one to break clinton's firewall in colorado, virginia and pennsylvania. those are the three swing states where she's maintained a lead even as she slipped in the polls in other states. he needs to maintain his lead, and flip one of those. and the only way he can do that, with he's got to pass the plausibility test. he's got to move those numbers. if not, if this many people cannot imagine him as president, don't think he has the basic qualifications for the job, that's a very difficult thing to fix and that's what he's got to try to do. otherwise, he can get very close to her in the national polls as he has, one or two points in recent polls but he's not going

to be able to flip these swing states. >> thank you for being here. that's "hardball" for now. chris will be back sunday night, for a special edition of "hardball" from hofstra. up next, "your business."

can political button sales predict election outcomes? if you're the owner of a 40-year-old business that sells them, the answer may be yes. see how this clever businessman thrives by reacting to breaking news and staying in touch with his customers. on a special edition of "your business."