good evening. i'm steve kornacki in for chris matthews. the first presidential debate between donald trump and hillary clinton is coming up this monday night. and the candidates seem to be preparing in very different ways. hillary clinton has spent three days off the trail this week. she's been studying up on debate material and watching video of trump's past debate performances. according to the "new york times," the goal is to get under his skin. quote, mrs. clinton has a thick dossier on mr. trump after months of research and meetings with her debate team including analysis and assumptions about his psychological makeup. critical to understanding how to knock mr. trump off blabs. mrs. clinton has concluded that catching mr. trump in a lie

during the debate is not enough to beat him. she needs the audience to see him temperamentally unfit for the presidency. trump's approach seems more lax. here is kellyanne conway earlier today. >> i don't think he's locked up in a cabin for two weeks like other people have been or currently are, cramming their heads with microchips and binders. >> is he doing mock debates? if so, who is playing the part of hillary? >> no one is playing the part of hillary. we all know hillary clinton very well. she's easily flummoxed. she did not see bernie sanders coming in the primaries earlier. she did not do well in debates against barack obama in 2008, and she never anticipated our comeback in the last five weeks. >> and for more now, i'm joined by hugh hewitt, host of the hugh hewitt show, and jonathan capehart. both are msnbc political analysts. the trump campaign loves this

contrast, clinton huddled with a team of researchers and psychologists and trump is sort of going to show up and be himself. that's the contrast they like. do you think trump's actual approach, though, is that hands-off, or is he quietly behind the scenes doing more studying than we realize? >> what i saw on the stage when i was there four times with him is he is a practiced television professional who spent hundreds of hours on stage, but he's not a binder breaker, as kellyanne conway just said. i think clinton's greatest strength is, everyone has gone to high school. she's the toughest teacher in the high school, the a.p. teacher with a hidden heart of gold. i don't think she should try to bait him. she will kill him. he will kill her if she tried to bait him. >> what do you think of that, jonathan? risk for hillary clinton if she shows up with these attacks designed to get under his skin and as they say, unhinge him? >> yeah, i think secretary clinton is in a damned if you

situation. damned if she does, damned if she doesn't. damned if she tried to overtly get under his skin, if she goes on the attack, personally attacks him, there's a danger of her looking like the a.p. teacher with the hidden heart of gold or as someone said, i think on our air, that she might look like tracy fleck from the movie "election" who is annoying and hypersmart and totally determined and motivated. and i think that, you know, there's a lot of spy-ops going on where everyone is communicating in print or on television what their candidate is or isn't doing. but donald trump runs the risk of at a time when polls show that people view him as someone who is temperamentally unfit and not ready to be president, to sort of wing it on a night when many people think that the biggest television audience ever will be watching two people

debate to see who should sit in the oval office, arguably the most important and toughest job in the world. >> hugh, hillary clinton had a little different preparation for this than donald trump. in the democratic primaries, if was basically one-on-one with bernie sanders. she got more of an experience like she's going to have on monday night. the republican primaries, ten candidates. commercial breaks. trump could talk for two minutes, disappear for ten minutes. this is a new setting. he has to fill a lot more time. if he's trying to appear presidential, more about proving substance. do you think he's up to it? >> very much so. i watched him very closely. he stays on podium. he's physically up to the task, it will not be a problem for him. i don't know if she's fully recovered yet from the pneumonia. but i have to say, for the parents out there who just heard jonathan reference the movie "election" don't have your kids watch that movie. that's not really the movie you

want them to learn about elections from. but she's the prohibitive favorite. the patriots are going in to play the browns, she's the patriots. donald trump on the odd s side are the browns. >> jonathan? >> steve, a couple things to keep in mind. hugh brought up. this will be a terrain that donald trump has not trod before. it's a 90-minute debate, no commercials, but the other thing people haven't clued in on is no audience reaction. if you looked at all of those debates, between donald trump and the 15, 16 other people, he fed off the applause or the boos or the laughter or the cheers from the audience. there will be none of that. that is donald trump's oxygen. and whether he can sustain a 90-minute performance one-on-one with no commercial breaks, without the ability to hide, remains to be seen. i'm not convinced. >> all right, jonathan capehart, hugh hewitt, thanks for the

time. >> up next, two people who know what it's like to get ready for the biggest stage in presidential politics. that is straight ahead. this is "hardball," the place for politics. mom, i have to tell you something. dad, one second i was driving and then the next... they just didn't stop and then... i'm really sorry. i wrecked the subaru. i wrecked it. you're ok. that's all that matters. (vo) a lifetime commitment to getting them home safely. love. it's what makes a subaru, a subaru. whfight back fastts, with tums smoothies. it starts dissolving the instant it touches your tongue. and neutralizes stomach acid at the source. ♪ tum -tum -tum -tum smoothies! only from tums

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amphibian. male teacher: excellent. welcome to a brighter future. comcast. welcome back to "hardball." the outcome of the first presidential debate between hillary clinton and donald trump depends in large part on whether they can successfully execute

their strategies once they come face-to-face on monday night. republican pollster frank luntz says for hillary clinton to win, she's going to need to prove her case that donald trump is unfit for office. here his advice. quote, your mission is to demonstrate that every time he talks on the global stage, his words could defile the office, embarrass the country, and yes, even provoke a war. your objection should be to put donald trump and everything he has stood for on trial. as for trump, he needs to break the narrative and deflect clinton's attempts to baox him in. as pat buchanan writes, he has to kwuns a plurality of voters that he's not a terrible risk and he will be a president of whom they can be proud. the trump on stage at hofstra will have 90 minutes to show the malicious cartoon of donald trump is a libelous lie. but he also points out the disparity between the candidates when it comes to expectations. he says trump does not have to show a mastery of foreign and

domestic policy details. he has to meet and exceed expectations which are not terribly high. i'm joined by rick tyler, who played donald trump in mock debates when he was adviser to the cruz campaign, plus former michigan governor, jennifer granholm. rick tyler, with an introduction like that, let's start with you. if you want to prepare a candidate to face donald trump on this stage, you have done it. the clinton campaign is trying to do it right now. what's your advice to them? >> i think it's probably feeding his own words to him. and that is she needs to memorize a lot of his quotes about foreign and domestic policy and some of the absurdities he's said and challenge him on that. having said that, i think that she has to convince the country that she is likable and honest and is in command of the facts. those are her strengths. donald trump has to convince people he has a temperament to be president. my speculation and my guess is donald trump will actually show up and will be disciplined for this 90-minute debate, and

because he's graded on a bell curve, he'll probably perform very well. >> jennifer, let's pick it up there. if that's what happened, if kellyanne conway, who has been trying to discipline donald trump, doing a pretty good job keeping him off twitter. he toned it down, if that's the standard. if she succeeds in getting him to show up at the debate and do what rick tyler is talking about, which is he's there, sort of trying to look presidential, not trying to mix it up or not necessarily seeing the primary season donald trump we saw in the debates. what does hillary clinton do? does she try to prod him, provoke him, or try to be more presidential than him on that stage? >> well, i'm sure there will be some element of trying to play his words back to him and see how he responds. i'm sure there will be some element of drawing out and calling him out on the lies he's told in the past. i bet you there will be some kind of debate bingo card, which lists the top ten donald trump lies like, you know, he opposed

the war in iraq or opposed going into libya. but what this is really for her is a chance in an unfiltered way to talk to people and say why she is going to fight for them. what is in her heart, to come across, and i think rick is right about this, to come across in a way that counters the impression that the right has tried to build up about her, that she's not likable, but that she really is. she's got a sense of humor. everyone knows she knows the policy, but she has a chance to speak directly to people about why she's going to fight for them and why she is completely unacceptable. >> what's the key, rick tyler, you studied him. you have gone head to head with him. what's the key if you want to throw donald trump off his game in one of these debate, what do you do? >> i think that's exactly what they prepared for. that is, you know, feed his words to him. where it's obvious that what he has said is wrong and she's trying to make a fool of him or to mock him somehow. that would normally get under

his skin. it may get under his skin, but he can't allow it to. that's probably what his debate team is coaching him on, that if he gives in to that temptation that he's going to lose. >> jennifer granholm, let me ask you about the expectations we have, pat buchanan quote there, i keep thinking back to george w. bush, al gore, the 2000 debates. the expectation gap heading into those debates, al gore was supposed to be this peerless debater. george w. bush was supposed to be clumsy on stage. those were the perceptions. when people saw them head to head, they were surprised. they said bush was better than i thought and gore was weak. that benefitted bush. are you concerned that could happen with trump here, too? >> of course. correct the record has bedone a compilation of all the network anchors who admitted he's being graded on a curve. we're hopeful that stations like h

msnbc, nbc, are going to hold him to the statement standard. >> not from the standpoint of a top down what the media tells people to think perspective. i'm saying from the perspective of americans who have seen a version of donald trump in the primary debates who was in your face with opponents, if a different donald trump shows up at this debate, just to the everyday voter watching on tv, forget what i say or anybody says in the media, are you concerned how that voter is going to react? >> yeah, but here's the thing. she has an opportunity to point this out. the man has spent his whole life conning people, and here he is conning you again. mr. con man is now conning you into thinking that he can be presidential. this is one time, this is 90 minutes, but remember, he's got a full record that we can continue to remind you about. >> really? >> don't be fooled. >> the only problem with that, governor, is there will be about 100 million people to tune in to the debate and a significant number of them have not been paying a lot of attention, certainly not like you and i.

there's no context, not enough time to explain on either side, to prosecute, if you like, hillary's lack of leadership as secretary of state or donald trump's many scandals over the years. not to develop them. so people may come and look at donald trump and if he is disciplined, they'll say a donald trump they didn't expect. they'll say this is the guy everybody has been talking about. geez, seems kind of reasonable to me. my prediction is both of the candidates will probably do fairly well in the debate. i don't think there will be any defining moments of a winner or loser. that's usually how most debates go. it will be the post narrative of the debate, the day after. that's the day the campaigns can never forget. they have to get their story out there. whatever narrative develops out of that, that's who will win. >> i think that's true. ia gree. >> i have to end it there, but thank you both. appreciate it. good pregame talk right there. up next, the big challenges facing donald trump heading into that first debate.

hillary clinton has got the lead in the polls now, in a majority of americans say they have serious questions about whether trump can actually be president. the plausibility test. that's ahead. you're watching "hardball," the place for politics. using 60,000 points from my chase ink card i bought all the fruit... veggies... and herbs needed to create a pop-up pick-your-own juice bar in the middle of the city, so now everyone knows... we have some of the freshest juice in town. see what the power of points can do for your business. learn more at chase.com/ink

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we should fit into your life. [ laughing ] not the other way around. [ clock ticking ] all right, welcome back to "hardball." just three days away from the first presidential debate between hillary clinton and donald trump. and heading into that big showdown, let's take a look at where the race stands right now and what the big challenges are facing the candidates as they head into it. let's give you first of all nationally. it's good news for hillary clinton this week. remember, last week, the stories were about the polls tightening. maybe it was the fallout from hillary clinton's health scare at ground zero on the 9/11 anniversary. this week, the past three national polls, new one out just tonight, puts her up by seven points. our own poll, seven. the survey monkey poll, five again. these are healthy leads that hillary clinton seems to be

reestablishing. average all the polls out there together, it's a three-point lead. that's been trending up for her as well. so that's good news for hillary clinton. we can also show you this. the polls we have out there raise a real question about where the ceilings are for the candidates. how high can they climb in their support? really the question, is hillary clinton's ceiling higher than donald trump's. if you look back to the beginning of smeeptember, you c count nine polls where hillary clinton scored 48% or higher. how many for donald trump, zero. so hillary clinton has been able to climb higher in these polls so far than donald trump has. when the race has tightened it hasn't so much been because donald trump's numbers are rising. it's because hillary clinton's support has been falling. that could be key as we get to election day. is that offering us a clue about whether the ceiling is just too low for donald trump? that's something to think about. also this, think about this heading into the debates. some basic questions voters have about the candidates.

a simple question here, is the candidate qualified to be president? look at that advantage hillary clinton has over donald trump. just 30% of voters right now saying donald trump is qualified to be president. so there's a plausibility test there, a plausibility problem right now for donald trump. that's something he's got to try to address at this debate. how about this as well? the question, does the candidate not respect ordinary americans? well, hillary clinton's februnu not good. 48% say she doesn't respect ordinary americans. the trump campaign has been trying to drive that message home by focusing on the deplorables message, but look at donald trump. 60% of americans say donald trump doesn't respect ordinary americans. the question is, is the candidate racist? half, half of voters right now say that donald trump is racist. just 21% for hillary clinton. of course, with the news in charlotte this week, the news in tulsa, the issues of race and policing likely to come up in

this debate, that number probably worth keeping in mind as well. some of the numbers to have in your heads as we head to the debate. right now, we're going to head to the "hardball" roundtable. mckay coppins, dean zano is a scientific, and we have a national reporter for bloomberg. i'm going to keep talking as i climb the stage and say hello. mckay coppins, all those numbers we ran through, is it realistic to think donald trump after 90 minutes of this debate on monday night against hillary clinton, that number of people who say he's not qualified to be president, that that falls, that the number who say he's a racist, that that falls? can he make progress on that on monday night? >> he might be able to chip away on the margins, but look, when half the voters, 50%, say a candidate is racist, that's a pretty heavy charge to level in this country. i think most voters take that seriously. i don't think most people watching a debate for 90 minutes, no matter how well a candidate performs, is going to change their minds overnight.

if he starts, turns over a new leaf or something in this debate and then continues it through election day, maybe he can chip away at it a little more, but i don't think that you can fundamentally change the electorate's perception of you with one debate. >> gene, this is something i have been wondering about. these are the two most unpopular nominees ever put forward. hillary clinton's personal negative numbers, are through the roof. donald trump's in most polls are through the roof and more through the roof than hers, but they're very high. my question when i see poll numbers like that, like the question of racism, i don't know if this can be measured in polling. is there a possibility he's more unlikable, more objectionable to people? the degree to which they dislike him is more intense? >> absolutely. that's what the clinton campaign is hoping. the ad out today that she has this series of statements he

made about women and young girls watching the statements, it's horrifying for any woman or father or brother to watch this. that's what they're hoping to do, say even if you don't trust her, even if you have issues with hillary clinton, you cannot trust him. he's far, far worse. and of course, the trump campaign is hoping to do the same thing with hillary clinton. you know, they're hoping to say that, you know, i may not be your favorite republican, but i am far better than this clinton or any clinton because that's something that really brings republicans together. so they're hoping that's true. and you know, we're going to have to see. >> you mention the ad the clinton campaign is out with going after trump. we have that. let's look at what the clinton campaign is putting out here. >> i would look her right in that fat, ugly face of hers. she's a slob. she ate like a pig. a person who is flat-chested is very hard to be a ten. did she have a good body? no. did she have a fat [ bleep ]? absolutely. >> do you treat women with

respect? >> i can't say that either. >> all right, by the same token here with all these negatives we just went through with donald trump, all the negatives the clinton campaign sees there, he's within striking distance of her, especially when you look at some of the battleground state polls. he's not that far behind. he needs something, but he maybe doesn't need that much. >> well, he needs, i think, number one, to break hillary clinton's firewall in colorado, virginia, and pennsylvania. those are the three swing states where she maintained the lead even as she slips in polls in other states. donald trump has to win the states where he's competitive and flip one of those. the only way to do that is he has to pass the plausibility test. he's got to move the numbers. if this many people cannot imagine him as president, that's a very difficult thing to fix. and that's what he's got to try to do because otherwise, he can get close to her in the national polls as he has at one or two points in recent polls but he's not going to be able to flip the states. >> thank you all for being here.

that's "hardball" for now. chris will be back sunday night at 8:00 eastern for a special edition of "hardball" from hofstra university, the site of the first presidential debate. >> up next, "your business." pic? you should be getting double miles on every purchase! switch...to the capital one venture card. with venture, you earn unlimited double miles on every purchase, everywhere, every day. not just ...(dismissively) airline purchases. seriously... double miles... everywhere. what's in your wallet? burning of diabetic nerve pain, these feet learned the horn from my dad and played gigs from new york to miami. but i couldn't bear my diabetic nerve pain any longer. so i talked to my doctor and he prescribed lyrica. lyrica may cause serious allergic reactions or suicidal thoughts or actions. tell your doctor right away if you have these, new or worsening depression, or unusual changes in mood or behavior.

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