sanders and part of the plan by the clinton camp to win back millennials. back to you. >> that will do it for this hour. i will be back tonight live at the big board for special team coverage that starts at 7:00 eastern. mtp daily starts right now.

>> keeping score. why this might be the twitter debate with the winner decided on social media before everyone says good night. >> short of election night, this is the most excited i have been about a political event. live on the campus of hofstra university. this is the site of the first presidential debate. you are watching "mtp daily" we are less than hours from the start of a truly historic night. the audience could be super bowl sized. over 100 million. the hype is. you may have seen flashy poll

headlines. hyping tonight. deadlocked before the debate. virtual dead heat. >> clinton keeps what looks like a-point lead among likely voters. clinton 45 and trump 40. that goes to when it's down to two people. 51% to 44%.

here are five major story lines that can make or break. which donald trump shows up. temperamental or subdued trump. he tweets about bill clinton's extra marital affairs. she is good, but known to stumble. number three, this is trump's first one on one ever. he thrived on a very crowded gop debate stage and tonight is much different. clinton is the first woman to make the stage. she is the first alpha male. how does he respond to that. it's a 90-minute debate and the first 30 will likely be the most important. from gore signed to nixon sweating. both happened in the first 30 minutes. we can see a shift in the polls. why? there is no third party candidate on stage tonight.

if this will move anyone, it's that sizable chunk of voters, about one in seven that are not just undecided, but in the johnson and stein camps. from western new york, the first member of congress to endorse donald trump. >> always good to be with you. >> here in your home state. let me ask this. which donald trump do you expect to see? >> i believe we will see president donald trump who is going to remain focused on the change. he will bring to america or two thirds of americans of americans say the country is going in the wrong direction. he is going to talk about the future and say things like imagine america when we have cities that are no longer at war. imagine america where our children and grandchildren have good paying jobs. imagine america where we defeated isis and secured our boardies and brought the jobs back. that's the america donald trump

will be talking about and not the status quo america we have seen the last eight years. >> there has been a lot of talk about what trump says and you can be on both sides of an issue or questioned about specific facts. kelly ann conway was asked about it and had an odd defense about something. here it is. >> he said lester holt was a democrat. he is a republican. how could he say such a thing that is black and white, factually incorrect. >> i don't know that he knew. >> without knowing, he aer issed he was a democrat. >> he lied about lester holt. >> he didn't lie. >> i think he did. >> mika, a lie didn't mean he knew his party registration. >> she was making the case if you make it up and you didn't know, it's not a lie. that's an odd juxtaposition here. he has a tendance tow say things

and he blows past it. is he going to correct that? >> he needs to stay on the top line message of the future of america that is different than the status quo different than an effective third term of barack obama that failed this country on the international stage, the national stage, the economic front. lester holt, i'm sure he is going to be fair. i don't have an issue whatsoever with the location or the moderator. i think what we will see are these two candidates hopefully going at each other to some extend, but more importantly talking on the issues. you concerned that he won't have enough substance with him? >> i'm not cashed in the least. i think hillary clinton has to be concerned with all of her issues that she had whether it's e-mail gate or foundation gate or benghazi gate that she has been called out by the director of the fbi for lying to the american public and lying to the benghazi families and perjuring

herself in congress. that's the untrustworthy hillary clinton. >> there is no allegation of perjury. >> certainly there has. >> from partisans, but the fbi did clear her. >> they did not clear her. they said she had classified e-mails and testified that there were no classified e-mails. that is a lie to congress under oath. >> you believe that should be investigated? >> i'm not going to prosecute it, but it's black and white. she did lie and perjury herself to congress. there is no debate on that whatsoever. we need to get beyond that and look at the next six weeks. who is going to make america great again for all americans. >> let me ask you this last question when it comes to trump. how important is this first debate? if he doesn't make a good first impression, he won't get a second chance? >> this can be make or break for both of them. hillary clinton supporters are locked in and donald trump

supporters are locked in and 25% of america is looking at this debate and asking themselves from a temperament standpoint, is donald trump having the temperament to be president. >> you acknowledge this is an issue for him? >> absolutely, but hillary, they don't trust her. two thirds of america know she is a liar and it comes down to donald saying they don't want to vote for hillary and have not warmed up to donald. after this president trump who shows up tonight will gravitate to him. you will see the momentum take off. >> you have a lot of fans out there. thanks for coming on. see you again. >> let me go down to the clinton campaign. i can turn from your right to the left and talk to jennifer. >> how important is it for your tam pain that donald trump has a

temperament problem on stage? if a subdued trump shows up, is that a problem? >> we are expecting a subdued and disciplined donald trump to show up. he will probably behave similar to the commander in chief forum that you did a couple of weeks ago. where he still had a number of lies in his performance and i think there was a lot of problems with what he said and advocated. his demeanor was disciplined. that's what we expect and the gift of running against someone like trump is the interest in the debates. when we mocked out the debate, what we find and spend most of our time on was helping hillary refine her best economic argument. it's 100 million people.

it's more than the convention and a gift no presidential candidate has gotten. >> we are going through and have been through and polls don't shift, but do you acknowledge this is bigger than most debates. >> it's bigger than most debates because of that audience. we see that it's a gift. the pregame and the post-game and the press coverage has an impact and more so than any other will matter is the actual audience that is watching. for us in this cycle because we are running against somebody like trump. it's hard to breakthrough. we admit this and it's hard for hillary to breakthrough with a positive message. >> do you think more people are tuning this to see trump and what he does? >> i think that his -- how controversial he is is drawing interest in the debate. that's why people are -- why there is so much interest and

people understand 24 very different candidates. people who are supporting either one understand there is a ton at stake. we believe that donald trump is a very serious threat to our country. there is interest in him as a candidate, but people in particular think they need to tune in to see. >> i asked this question of john and it's not going to be a shock, but 13 of the 14 ads you unveiled have been focused on trump's temperament on some form or another. if the donald trump you portray in tv ads is not the trump that people see tonight, what does it do to your message? >> i think he -- i believe that donald trump will hold it together for 90 minutes and i don't think he will be unhinged in 90 minutes. if he does, we will be in a situation. we are not expecting that is who will show up. that is not the bar you need to clear to be president of the united states.

the bar you need to clear which hillary clinton will do is do you understand the country? do you have an optimistic view of where to take the country and the judgment and the skill to be period of the united states. each party should have nominated their very best candidate. this is the most important job on the planet and she will bring to the table those plans and to demonstrate that judgment and that's the bar he should be judged by. >> i want to show you a stack from the survey monkey poll from voters under the age of 30. look at the split. she is under 50. 49%. trump is not doing well. he is at 26%, but gary johnson and jill stein combined are at 23%. nearly one in 4 are looking at third party. is that the goal that you have to get that voter group excited? >> when you have as big of an

audience as we will tonight, it's an important audience and that we need to do more with as well as motivation. you have to look more broadly to the 100 million people. she will be speaking to that whole group, particularly on the economy. that is what we see as the opportunity. >> i will leave it there. here it is. it's the big day. we will be watching. we are less than four hours from the big debate. we will preview the matchup with the mock debate that we put together. the candidates in their own words. also ahead, will the debate make an impact on the polls. we have numbers that will put that in perspective. we will have a lot more from hofstra after this. when it comes to healthcare,

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welcome back to mtp daily here on msnbc. even with record viewership, do these things matter when it comes to the polls? the evidence suggests debates do not move the polls that much. let's take a look. we will look through the last six elections. the candidate leading in the polls heading into the first debate usually won the election. go back to 1992 when there were three podiums on stage. ross perot earned his spot and it didn't help him much. he had a six-point advantage and held on for election day. perot stated the same percentage and never earned a single electoral vote. for the year 2000, even though bush won the white house, al gore who was in the lead still won the popular vote. bush saw one of the biggest

bounces we have seen coming out of the debates. he gapped five points between the poll for the debate. late october of that year, the poll of registered voters gained ten points. by late october they were tied. the bottom line and the structure of the race doesn't usually change after the first debate. nothing about this is usual and we have one in seven voters sitting in a third party column and they could be fluid after tonight. we will be back with more from hofstra university after this.

what we don't want is a double standard where donald trump can get the most improved award and hillary clinton is getting judged on the fine points of policy. >> i'm surprised a campaign manager would try to lower expectationses. >> i know this about hillary clinton, when the lights are bright, she bripgs the a plus game to the table. she will be very, very good tomorrow night. >> donald trump has a unique way of communicating. she is trying to distract attention and play games with front row sts and donald trump is not about that. >> as you can see, they are full force ahead of the debates about that. they need to get on message and bring in the panel. nbc analyst ben ginsburg. welcome to you all. i will start with you. you have moderated one of these in these moments and had

campaigns work you and work revs, but nothing like we have seen. this working of the revs that we are seeing, everything feels unprecedented. i don't know what the impact is they are going to have. >> suddenly everything who had not gone to one of the debates, suddenly is an expert. if this doesn't happen, it's going to be a failure. lester hold is prepared so it

has been said before and will happen and there is a history of this, the audience will we need a full range of issues. it's about who you want to be the president. >> we would create that. there you go. you pass the test. it is impressionistic, whatever that means. >> they have essays on the sat.

how few percentage points tend to be moved, i think this is an extraordinary circumstance because there are so many voter who is i have spoken to and you see in the polls, and pushed away and they are looking for to come acrossa as acceptable. and after tonight they will stare at a binary choice. >> what they have to accomplish is get people excited. not necessarily convince one another about the policy.

they have to make sure they have people in their column. and agreeing to participate and agreeing to any rules. and the historic memorandum of understanding tha both sign is not in effect. >> let's take lieu it. that means what? what couldn't happen in 2012 versus what can happen tonight. >> the memorandum of understanding committed all the candidates to the four debates. we already heard chatter about

referencing specific individuals. they will try to game each other much like what he tried to do. it may be from a safe distance. the theatrics of the debate and the stage performance of it is not as buttoned down. they had a strict set of rules. >> who follows them? >> the rules went out the window. you don't have a trap door you can hit. asking each other questions was prohibited by the rules and mitt romney slipped up and asked a question.

there are no rules. >> they put them in handcuffs and say you violated the rules. >> it's a complaint about the rules. that is not a good look. >> it's not a good look for the people watching. they don't want to see people fighting on stage. you have millennials who are not as excited as they need to be. they have to take that into consideration. >> you guys are sticking around. coming up, the end of an era in new hampshire. but first, all this hour we are giving you a little snippet of

what you may see starting with takes between clinton and trump on the issue of russian president putin. here you go. >> i think pult in has been a strong leader for russia. a lot stronger than our leader. >> like many bullies, he will take as much as he possibly can unless you do. you push and pull and struggle and fight and love to run your business. and when you need legal help with that business, we're here for you. we're legalzoom. and over the last 10 years we've helped one million business owners navigate every day challenges. so visit us today for the legal help you need to start and run your business. legalzoom. legal help is here.

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clinton. they have dropped the name that recognizes former democratic presidents. that is known as the trail of tears. the party did not and hundreds of people gathered to protest several war muments as well as the statute of andrew jackson. david duke called it a party of his history and said it's his right to defend it.

they will be dropping both jrks going forward. social media is dropping the conversation like never before. as we head to break, clinton and trump head to head on the issue of immigration. >> hopefully after the 2016 election, some of the republicans will come to their senses and realize we are 23409 going to deport 11 or 12 million people in this country. >> the wall just got ten feet taller. believe me. just got ten feet taller. >> i don't mind trade wars, but we are losing $58 billion a year. we are losing so much. zuccolis. through ancestry, through dna i found out that i was only 16% italian. he was 34% eastern european. so i went onto ancestry, soon learned that one of our ancestors we thought was italian was eastern european. this is my ancestor who i didn't know about. he looks a little bit like me, yes. ancestry has many paths to discovering your story.

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that's a look in the spin room here at hofstra.

it's so quaint. reporters will be watching the debate there. it feels like a tradition of a by gone era. donald trump may show up in the spin room. before surrogates and staffers make it there, the spin will be taking place. in 2012, obama staffers were caught off guard when the narrative was written in the first 15 minutes of the first debate on twitter. like everything else, it's more sped up than before. it will be the first snap chat debate. you heard that right. live on facebook and you tube and a number of other websites. it's part of the commission on presidential debates since social media initiative. they can go throughout the night on snap chat and facebook live. it makes it that much harder than ever to drive a story that their candidate came out on top, but they will try. i am joined by the road warri

warriors. kristen elker is there and katy is outside hofstra university. the trump campaign, they seem to have a better strategy at managing expectations here than the clinton campaign. >> absolutely. they are simultaneously lowering expectations and trying to convince the public and trump supporters. he is going to do well. how are they doing that? kelly ann conway and the surrogates are getting on tv all day and saying the media is not going to be fair and judge him harshly regardless of what he does and saying she a great debater. he is a mastert the stage and will do well. that way they are putting this idea and seating this idea into supporters's minds that he will do well regardless of what the media says because they are trying to lower expectations

when he goes against somebody like hillary clinton. she has been on the stage a dozen plus times. dozens of times it especially on the smaller settings. this is the first time that donald trump has gone on one with somebody on the national stage. especially for this period of time. the campaign wants him to come out and be presidential. they want him to show a restrained version of himself and realize him on the attack first is not going to go over well especially with the moderate republicans and women. they know and you know this, he is hard to control. >> let me go into the spin room with them. let me start with you. when you look at the mechanics of the clinton operation, i assume they think they have a plan in place to essentially try to win twitter pin war. what are they doing? >> that's their goal.

they are working on short concise answers to things. her quotes can go out and be tweetable so they can get the upper hand early on in the night. the challenge is which trump is she going to be facing off against? she is preparing against the more combative trump and the more restrained donald trump. based on conversations last night and also today, they think that donald trump will be restrained at least in the first part of this debate. she is going to try to not only knock him off course, but talk about her message. one said they have a lot of undecided voter who is don't know the policy prips she has for things like creating jobs and dealing with the economy. her goal is two fold on being tough and concise. >> i'm just curious. is there any trump person who regrets the lack of preparation? >> not that they talk about on television at this point, what

they like to talk about is this idea that trump is going to get up there and be himself. that works. he is going to be authentic and natural. when they talked about the other spin, there was an adviser who told me in the review of the tapes of the past debate performances, there could be an opening in the follow-up questions. potentially watch for him to go after her on the second or 30 question of the topic and that is where she stumbled in the past and where they see an opportunity. as for the preparation, it comes down to the idea that if it ain't broke, don't fix it. they feel like he did okay then even though he took a lot of criticism and heat in the debates. we will see how it goes in four hours from now. hours from now. >> we are getting there. thank you and want to bring it to you. this issue of preparation was interesting to read the oral

history of the first debate with bush and gore. you would have thought gore spent more time prepping and it turned out bush did. romney spent an enormous amount of time preppg and president obama didn't. clearly she did a mock debate session this morning? they gained out every scenario. >> this is a mode that hillary clinton is comfortable n. she is most comfortable overprepared and we have seen that in how they executed. there is risk here for donald trump if only that this is a situation that is so high stakes. >> let me pause you for a minute. i was interested to hear halle report they are watching a tape of clinton. one of the reasons is they are watching tape of yourself. the nonverbal cues. trump's lack if he had not watched himself on tv, he may wish he had.

>> he had all the experience debating with 15 plus people on stage. it's very, very different when you are one on one with one other person. one thing i would add on hillary clinton's side, her team feels like she struggles to breakthrough in a way that is not filtered. even though americans feel like they know her well and she has been in the public eye for decades, this might be the first time she had an opportunity to speak directly to americans in a real way and it could make a difference. >> it was interesting they kept emphasizing, 100 million. you don't get that often. >> even with the apprentice. the only they think match it was cheers and mash for the football games. >> warriors, the pit stop is here and there is a great food tent and a beer tent. stock up. we have more to go later. all right. up next, it's last call.

ment that fired everybody up. it's last call for a broadcasting legend. as we go to break, donald trump and hillary clinton on the fight against isis. >> you look at iraq, what happened and how badly that was handled and then when president obama took over, likewise, it was a disaster. he took everybody out. and really isis was formed. >> we also need to make sure that the really discriminating missages that trump is sending around the world don't fall on receptive ears. he is become isis's best recruiter.

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scully called the first game with people like jackie robinson and roy campanella. his voice was there with the perfect game and of course my favorite moment, kirk gibson's miraculous walk off home run in 1988 just to name a few. >> the game right now is at the plate. high flyball into right field! she is gone! >> she is gone. >> and a career for the improbable there.

he has been a common threat through baseball and i got to watch with my father before he passed away. his voice and that call and that game triggered the best memories. my dad sitting me down and vin scully he bleeds dodger blue more than anything else. he was an extra moment of pride when you knew he was on the air. for generations of fans, he will be missed. vin scully, can't wait to hear you call one more game, the last of the season in san francisco against the hated cross town rivals, the giants. we will beat them and keep them out of the playoffs and convince you to call one more world series game. we will be back with more on tonight's debate after this.

we are back and typically these debates don't move the needle that much. who watches tonight may make a difference. check out these numbers from the "wall street journal" poll. these are the groups with the highest percentage of people who say the debates are extremely or quite important in helping make up their presidential mind. look at the top three of the top five. hispani hispanics, african-americans and young voters. gary johnson's voters are the so-called coalition that propelled them to victory and they say they care the most about this debate. those folks are less enthusiastic for clinton than the campaign would like. clinton will have their attention for 90 minutes

tonight. let's bring the panel back. and because we are talking vin scully, you are out in l.a. with vin a lot longer. very quick. >> brokaw, you were out in l.a. with that vim. >> my favorite story about vin skully. i was a big dodgers fan and knew him a long time. and we were at a big famous restaurant. don rickles walked in with bob new hart. saw this table, walked over, said, scully, it's baseball, not shakespeare, just give me the baseball game, don'tive me shakespeare and poetry. i don't need any of that. i've never seen vin lose control before. he was laughing so hard, he couldn't go on. i don't need, you know, in the twilight of your years. we're going to do the -- quotes from the bible. tell me the baseball game. >> yet the whole reason we love vin is the baseball game. speaking of don rickles, let's talk about the presidential debate tonight and the insults. as soon as he said don rickles,

i thought, i can segue. you saw those numbers. jamal, i'll go to you, you brought it up first. the people who care most about this debate are the people in the obama coalition. that's hillary clinton. that's good news, but also means, you better perform. >> some of our own mtv insights research has if no millennials vote, then trump wins by three. if they all vote, she wins by five. they can be the vote that sways this election. they can be the most important electorate out here. but she has to speak not just to them in a way that's pandering, but she has to speak to them with regards to policy that they're concerned about. >> and i think that that trust issue is actually a bigger issue with millennials. they're a generation that distrusts. >> right, because they didn't go through a lot of the media wars that she's endured. >> ben, there is another group that i'm thinking trump thinks he can win over tonight, and that is these wayward republicans. maybe you could say it was epitomized by ted cruz, but the reason they threw out a new supreme court list so close to this debate is that i think

they're hoping to consolidate the remaining republicans that are undecided. >> i think it was partially that and partially to get some more diversity in the list. now up to four women out of 21. venezuela is there -- >> at first, very white -- >> partially conservative. >> but there is, there are enough undecided republicans tonight that he could make inroads with. >> yeah, republicans on the fence. and they're the college-educated, white republicans that mitt romney won overwhelmingly. so that's an interesting pitch to them, while keeping his base in check. and i think that's the challenge. >> i want to talk about the other part -- the verbal cue issue. and the idea that you can say a lot without speaking. and i think tonight, everybody's going to watch a split screen tonight. >> yeah, i have a theory. up to this point, it's been overture. now we're on the stage. this is a big deal. people look at it in a different way. they love what happened during the summer, because it was exciting and it was a show, as

he often described it. now they kind of turn a switch. and they get together with friends. and a lot of people out there who have not paid as much attention as we have. and they're going to pay attention tonight and they'll start to take it seriously. more seriously between now and election. and that's why this one, especially the opening night, with two such contrasting candidates is really going to be important. >> and molly, i'm not just putting this to you because you're the only woman right here at this table, for this part, but that is different tonight. is the idea of the first woman presidential nominee, the first time they've been on stage, and the times that she has had her best debate moments is when men have looked condescending. >> absolutely. any political consultant will tell you there's a special art to running against a woman candidate, because there are a lot of pitfalls in terms of how women voters in particular, but all voters really perceive the way women ought to be treated. and that can be an obstacle for female candidates, but also a trap for male candidate ifs

they're seen as too aggressive, like the famous rick lazio moment. so i think because trump is such an exaggerated sort of macho caricature, which is either incredibly ironic or not a coincidence at all, that he's the first opponent for the first female presidential nominee, a lot of people see that as a mind field for him. because he has in the past, especially against carly fiorina, not been particularly agile at responding to women candidates. >> and i think voters gravitate toward the leader, right? somebody has to take command. so he's the ultimate alpha male, but she wants to be in command ancontrol, too, jamal. >> if she can speak to situations that are happening right now, that are all over the news. for instance, charlotte. she speaks about that in an authoritative way and talks about her plans for criminal justice reform, for police reform. i'm not sure how he's going to counteract that. because he has no plans. we have to make sure how much that stuff comes up, and how

much we end up talking about e-mails and other things that voters aren't really excited about. >> talk about the normalizing effect that the first debate has, where mitt romney goes from candidate to equal. and tonight there's going to be an equalizing moment, just the minute we all turn on our tvs. >> just by virtue of being there. it is the first time that these candidates are actually out there with no filters. not a teleprompter, not somebody's 30-second tv ad. it is the first moment. you never get a second chance to make a first impression. >> that's for sure here. >> the other thing is, ben, remember, obama lost the first debate to romney. >> george bush lost to john kerry in the first debate. >> and the comeback. >> the question is, with these two, given the kind of crystallization of this campaign, can you lose tonight and make a comeback? >> and i don't know if you can. tom, molly, jamal, ben, everything has been said at least three times but not everybody has said it. we have a couple more hours of pre-game to go. we'll have more from hofstra university right after this.

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that's all for tonight. i am genuinely looking forward to this. total unknown, and what's great about this, it's a united country that will be watching this debate. we might be not united about what we see tonight, but we're

all watching the same thing. that isn't such a bad thing. chris hayes is coming up next. we'll have more "mtp daily" tomorrow. stay with us, though, msnbc full coverage leading up to our live telecast of the debate, moderated by my colleague, lester holt, at 9:00 eastern, followed by late-night coverage with our post-debate team. here's chris hayes, though, a cubs' fan unfortunately, but other than that, a great guy, and he picks up our coverage right now. all right. good evening from hofstra university in hempstead, new york. i am chris hayes and we are now just three hours from the most highly anticipated political showdown in decades. the first of three presidential debates, between donald trump and hillary clinton. it's the first reality star nominee versus the first woman to top a major party ticket. you are looking at video from moments ago. donald trump arriving at the debate