landslide. then all you need is for someone to say, hey, look at this poll, and report it. well, sean hannity last night who was hawking those non-poll polls. the thing is, he was the one that was quick to dismiss those same surveys eight years ago when ron paul kept winning them after every single debate. the only real scientifically based poll out there last night was by cnn and they had clinton winning 62-27. party ideas a little out of whack, but it was a scientifically kind of conducted poll and that overwhelms any party issue. so after the next debate on october 29th, when you hear about the post-debate polls, consider the source, both of the so-called poll and the person reporting it. that's all for tonight. "with all due respect" starts right now. >> i'm john heilemann. >> and i'm mark halperin. with all due respect to those who wondered if donald trump is tech savvy, with asked and answered. >> we came in with the internet. we came up with the internet.

cyber is one of them. cyberwarfare. somebody sitting on their bed that weighs 400 pounds, okay? cyber and cyberwarfare. i have a son, he has computers. he is so good with these computers, it's unbelievable. as far as the cyberwarfare, i agree. >> computer. >> we're all about zeros and ones on this episode to have "with all due respect." it's been less than 24 hours since hillary clinton and donald trump faced off on that long island debate stage, and boat candidates are back out on the trail already, after many in the media expect declared clinton the winner last night, the democratic nominee took a victory lap in raleigh, north carolina. >> did anybody see that debate last night? [ cheers and applause ] oh, yes!

one down, two to go. and when i confronted him with the reasons why he won't release his tax returns and i got to that point, where i said, well, maybe he's paid zero, he said that makes him smart. now, if not paying taxes makes him smart, what does that make all the rest of us? >> donald trump has also been claiming victory. that was the main thrust of his talking points when he came in an unprecedented move into the spin room last night to talk to reporters, include a hard-working journalist frutrum and his team are right to mitigate some of the fallout from criticism of his debate performance, or as some people call it, making excuses. >> i had some hostile questions. he didn't ask her about the e-mails at all. he didn't ask her about her scandals. he didn't ask her about the benghazi deal. he didn't ask her about a lot of things that she should have been asked about. you know, there's no question

about it. when you look at it, you watch the last four questions, he hit me on -- >> boom, boom, boom. >> birther, he hit me on a housing deal from many years ago, that i settled with -- >> 1973. >> -- with no recourse. they were leaving all of her little goodies out. those questions are not answerable in a positive light. i had a problem with a microphone that didn't work. i don't know if you saw that in the room, but my microphone was terrible. i wonder if it was set up that way on purpose. my microphone in the room, they couldn't hear me. you know, it was going on and off. which isn't exactly great. i wonder if it was set up that way, but it was terrible. it was going on and off. and it was much lower than hers. >> hmm. >> i don't want to believe in conspiracy theories, of course, but it was much lower than hers and it was crackling. >> oh, no, donald trump would never want to believe in a conspiracy theory. anyway, here's what clinton had to say about that, all of that, during a hill force one gaggle this morning. >> what about his stamina? >> the microphone? >> what about his stamina?

>> anybody who complains about the microphone is not having a good night. >> okay. there is another trick that donald trump likes to use when he feels like he's not being treated the fairly by the media, he likes to talk about the polls. >> i think we did very well. we won virtually every poll. every poll. except for cnn. and nobody watches cnn. but we won almost every single poll. cbs and drudge and slate and "time" magazine and all of them, right? we won all of them. so that was a great d -- >> oh, he won all of them, especially that cbs poll, which doesn't actually exist, because cbs doesn't do a post-debate poll. and those others were online surveys. the most credible post-debate poll of the bunch was that cnn/orc poll, which said 62% of voters said that clinton had a better night. so mark, not a good day for donald trump. not a particularly good night last night. do you believe at this point it would do him good politically to just admit that he lost and

start shaping up for the next debate? >> i'm stipulating that there's a difference between what is and what ought to be. and this morning, i thought he should say, you know, it was my first time debating. you know, i didn't like the way the questions went, but i'll do better next time. but now, i don't think so. his supporters, rush limbaugh said he win. i think as brazen as it is and as counterfactual to a lot of how people experienced the debate, i think he should just tough it through, pretend it didn't happen, and hope that it doesn't impact the polls, in which case the national polls and the battleground polls, in which he can just say, hey, i didn't lose. >> i don't like giving donald trump advice about what to do or what not to do. again, we'll talk about it some more. he plainly lost the debates. there are some examples in the past of candidates and campaigns with bush back in 2004 and obama in 2012, where the campaign basically, didn't come out and say, we lost, but basically said, we didn't have a good night and we need to do better

next time. and that helped them with their credibility with the media. and i think it would help trump, but credibility with the mainstream media is not how trump advances him. and the difference between this and when obama failed in 2008, he had to admit that he lost and he would do better the next time, because democrats are freaking out. trump fans are not freaking out. trump fans saw a different debate than we saw last night. they think he won. >> some elite republicans aren't happy, but what saved him, and the reason i don't think he has to, for his own good, say he lost, is there's no sound bite moment. there's a lot of limit moments during the night that will continue to haunt him, but there's no rick perry oops, no jerold ford, poland isn't under soviet domination. and as much as buildup to the debate, as much as people will be talking about it at the end of the week, i don't think he has to turn the page in the narrative to say, i lost, let's move on. he can muscle through trump style and say, i won, here's all the reasons i won, and hope, as

i said, the polls don't suggest he lost. >> i have a feeling they might, though. >> what about hillary clinton? what does she need to do now, what can he do, to capitalize on what was a strong debate performance from last night? i ask you, john heilemann? >> she's been doing it all day today. she's been out like, you're right, tlahere was not a big moment like that, where trump said something, a glaring thing. but what she's now doing is highlighting those moments in order to keep that narrative going. i think particularly the question of his taxes, where i thought her performance was brilliant last night by going through a series of hypotheticals, asking the question. having him not deny the question and suggestion she was making has now opened the door to that issue. we saw him last night take the bait on a lot of issues, and make factual misstatements, screw various things up over the course of the night. she and her team now are amplifying those mistakes through the media and can keep this thing alive for several more days, i think, on that basis. >> at least in social media and targeted media. >> yeah. >> my second favorite haley

barbour expression in politics, good gets better and bad gets worse. she had a great day today. she had a gaggle on the plane with the reporters and was talking about being optimistic and joking with them and as relaxed as i've seen her in a while. and then did that rally, she's enjoying the win. not gloating about it, not going over the top about it, but she is surfing the success she had last night. it's put her in a good mood and, you know, while republicans aren't panicking, democrats are super happy, and she knows that. >> here's the thing you can tell about candidates. and we're going to talk about the kpcampaigns in a second and how they've tried to frame this thing. with candidates you can tell. when a candidate feels they've won and are being judged to have won, they have that look of confidence and buoyancy. donald trump, we made the point before, if trump won the debate, he wouldn't be talking about the moderator or the microphone. it's a window into his psyche. he's tacitly admitting, although i don't think he'll have ever admit it explicitly, he's

tacitly admitting he lost the debate. she's on a little bit of a roll. we'll see how long it can last. >> confidence matters so much, he's still confident, because he's always confident, but she's got a lot of confidence off that win. >> more than she's had in week. so we got pretty dizzy from all the spinning that occurred in the hofstra debate spin room last night. since then, both campaigns have flooded the airwaves with their talking points. let's take a look at a sampling of what team trump has been saying about last night. >> he took her on fall square. >> donald trump took command of the stage. and i think the american people saw his leadership qualities. >> i was glad that he was polite and a gentleman to her, particularly at the end, when he pulled the biggest punch of all. >> and i thought his restraint at the end was absolutely remarkable. she was just sort of programmed hillary. >> she gave the canned, scripted responses. she obviously was overprepared. she wanted to make sure we heard every single scripted moment. >> so that was the trump song.

now we'll take a listen to the tune that the clinton chorus has been singing very joyfully all day today. >> i thought that hillary clinton was prepared. donald trump was incoherent. >> i think he came on stage grossly unprepared. he then kind of unraveled and came apart during the course of the debate. and i think he disqualified himself on every level. >> hillary answered questions and donald avoided them. and hillary told the truth, and donald told some whoppers. it really showed her off as ready to be commander in chief and president. >> she came there ready to talk about the future, not just there to sit and insult and whatever donald trump called that whining that he was doing. >> i don't think donald trump can be president. he does not have the temperament. >> so this all matters, people make fun of spinmeisters. so who made their case better? >> i think this is an area where technical proficiency and size matters, and planning. the clinton campaign is learning

from the obama template about how to aggressively be out and have surrogates on all forms of media and they filled the space. i actually think that given that the trump team is so much smaller and there's so much less experience in most of the positions and the fact that they were playing the weaker hand, i don't think they did a bad job of trying to create the impression that the red team says this, the blue team says this. the clinton people did better, but the trump people did surprisingly well. >> they have done a decent job at preventing panic among the reporters, and not seeing their reporters flipping out, which is an important thing. >> but you can really tell a team. we've covered a lot of debates over a lot, a lot of years. in that spin room, the clinton campaign was out before the debate us with over and not only arguing that she had won, but you could tell they believed it. the trump campaign came out much later, and although they somewhat kind of gamely tried, but bottom line, you could tell that they knew that they had been beaten. they just didn't have that look in their eyes. >> the clinton people, they were

barely trying to spin. i would walk past them, and they would just be like, hey, what's going on. there was no attempt. they were happy to let the candidates perform and speak for theirselves. i will say that clinton people are at like, you know, fighting readiness. it would be interesting to see, not just if trump does better in subsequent debates, but does this operation improve and learn from this. because as i said, there are lots of people involved who have never done this before, and certainly not at this level. >> almost everyone on that clinton team has worked on a presidential campaign and had to go out in spin rooms and talk to reporters. literally almost every one. >> and it's still the case that the clinton people have more people doing social media and communications than trump has employees. up next, what donald j. trump is saying about a former universe that's out of this world! we'll be right back.

one of the sharpest barbs on the debate stage last night came from hillary clinton. the topic, things that donald

trump has said about women, in particular, clinton told the story of alicia machado, a 1996 miss universe winner who she said trump called miss piggy after she gained weight. the let that slide during the debate, but addressed it this morning on "fox & friends" and dug himself in even deeper. >> i know that person. that person was a miss universe person. and she was the worst we ever had. the worst. the absolute worst. she was impossible. and she was the winner and, you know, she gained a massive amount of weight and it was -- it was a real problem. >> the clinton campaign is now trying to make those words a real problem for donald trump. today, machado, who is now a u.s. citizen, held a conference call with reporters and says she plans to do what she can to help hillary clinton get elected. and the clinton campaign this morning sent out a two-minute highly produced web video of the former beauty queen, telling her own story in spanish.

so, mark, this is undeniably ugly, but do you think it will have lasting resonance with voters? >> it has lasting resonance, or i think it will, with the media. it shows the clinton campaign's sense of timing to bring real people to this front. the trump campaign brought some real people out at the convention. we have not seen them since. reminiscent of the romney campaign a few years ago. they had some people testify on romney's behalf, and then they disappeared. this goes right to the court of immigrants, women, trump's temperament. so i don't know exactly how much this will hurt trump, but given his reaction today, this one will have some legs for a while and will hurt him. and the clinton people will send this message out, not just widely, but on a targeted basis. >> kellyanne conway and others around the donald trump recognized that he had a problem with suburban women. they've done various things to try to fix that problem. donald trump has, by doing what he did, not the things he said in 1996, although those are bad, but by getting on television

this morning and fat shaming this woman. he has just basically flown in the face of all of the work they've tried to do on his behalf. there is not a woman in the country, republican, democrat, anyone, who thinks it's okay for a man to get on television and say, you're the worst because you got fat. >> i think another thing this shows about trump's weakness as a candidate, you can bet that everyone out there who hillary clinton has intersected with who might speak out against her, she knows the facts. she would have a response. trump last night was like, where are you getting this information? well, it's been in the newspaper. where are they getting it? they read "the new york times." the fact that he had no preparation for this, and as you said, his response last night and today in his interview with fox news was to lash back out at her, on someone who -- >> has done nothing to donald trump! has done nothing! >> you don't need to know anything about her. on basis of the facts as known, it's just foolish. >> there's no excuse for it in any case, but in this case, this woman is of full innocence in this case. and he just -- it's absurd.

>> she'll be back. he better get a better answer, and this should probably be one of the times he should apologize. one debate down, three to go. hillary clinton and donald trump will face off the again in a town hall session in st. louis on october 9. then ten days after that, there's the third and final presidential debate in john's favorite, las vegas, october 19th. but next up is the vice presidential debate, mike pence and tim kaine will hold their session in farmville, virginia, a week from today. so, john, how is last night's debate going to shape the contours of the veep session and the two remaining presidential debates? >> i hate to keep going back to 2012, but you will remember very well, after barack obama lost that first debate to mitt romney, it really amped the stakes up for the vice presidential debate, which also followed it. a lot of pressure on joe biden, a lot of pressure on ryan, but more on biden. and that's probably because democrats were panicking and biden had to buck 'em up. that's not going to be the problem for pence. i still think this vice presidential debate will be a

snooze. we'll talk about the presidential one in a second. >> i think there's a little bit of pressure on pence, it's comparable, because the republicans needs to be buoyed, and he has been the buoyer in chief in a lot of constituen constituencies. and i think there's some pressure on tim kaine because he needs to keep things going. but the biggest factor to me the trump needs to win a second debate. and it is a town hall. he's barely done town halls by himself, let alone this complexity -- people say, trump needs to be more aggressive next time. being aggressive in a town hall, for me, if trump doesn't prepare for this, significantly more extensively, including a 90-minute session with fake questioners, he is going to be committing malpractice. >> and just pause on that for a second, people don't necessarily think about this. it's one thing to say, you're not going to do mock debates, which is dumb to say you're not going to do mock debates. this is a more complicated enterprise, as we've seen in debate preps past, you know, building a set that looks like the set. populating it with people playing real people, if not actual real people, to try to throw all of the kinds of questions out of left field.

it's a totally different set of questions. >> it's six-dimensional chess. and there's no such thing as six-dimensional chess. that's how complicated it is. >> you can try to predict what a moderator will ask, but it's a lot harder to predict what the american people will ask. >> and you can see trump saying, i don't have to prepare, i know how to talk to real people. she will be as well practiced for this as she was last night. >> and the stakes are higher for him a lot next time. and up next, tom marino will tell us why he thinks donald trump had a better night last night than we thought he did, right after this. and you can't be our leader, if you don't lead. our next president needs to take action on social security, or future generations could lose up to $10,000 a year. we're working hard, what about you? hey candidates, do your jobs. keep social security strong.

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nlgtsds wgs basti welcome back. we're joined now by republican congressman from california, tom marino, a trump supporter, and comes to us from the capitol rotunda on capitol hill. thanks for joining us. >> my pleasure. >> can you imagine he might have hurt himself with some female voters when the issue of things he said in the past about some women were raised? >> you know, not necessarily. i'm sure there are some out there that were turned off by that, but, look, donald trump is donald trump. and that's why he has the following that he has. it's a populous movement here. it's men, women, young people, you know, from all walks of life. so, he was typical of donald trump and that's why he has won more votes in a primary in the history of this country than anyone else.

and hillary clinton was the same old hillary clinton. you know, let's wrap it up nice and neat, but still continue to deny the issues concerning benghazi, deny issues concerning her servers and so on. and how great the country is doing. i found it absolutely amazing when she was bringing on how good of shape the country is, how safe it is. i can't remember 10, 15 years ago, other than 9/11, that we were having the shootings that we are having in this country, because of a renegade islamic extremist terrorism. >> congressman, did you have any problems hearing mr. trump last night? >> no, i didn't. >> so when mr. trump complained today about having a faulty microphone and maybe having been given a faulty microphone on purpose, you didn't have any trouble discerning the words coming out of his mouth? >> no, i had excellent hearing and i had my tv on, i was in my

office, and i was listening to it. >> how do you think lester holt did as a moderator. do you think he treated mr. trump fairly? >> absolutely not. i'm very disappointed in holt. he didn't take hillary clinton on on any issues. she had a one-liner on her servers and her e-mails. i'm sorry it happened. if i had to do it over again, i would never do it. but then he went right back to trump on the tax issues and statements that he's made. i'm disappointed in holt. i thought he was different than that. but last night, he really showed his bias. >> congressman, what do you think donald trump's most likely path is to 270 electoral votes? what states would it involve winning? >> pennsylvania, of course, where i'm from. i believe if he wins pennsylvania, he wins it. people are sick and tired of being sick and tired of the establishment. and i'm asked, why would i ever endorse him? and i just ask this rhetorical

question, how's it gone the last 30 years with career politicians being president? 20 millitrillion in debt, i wan person who's created tens of thousands of jobs, says what's on his mind, i don't agree with it all the time, but isn't worried about being politically correct. >> congressman, mark asked you a little bit earlier about a female voters. it seems as though the comments that he made in the past about miss universe, he made some comments this morning that upset some people when he seemed to be going back, talking about her weight again. you understand the importance of suburban women in your state, if pennsylvania is going to be winnable. would you advise mr. trump to continue to talk about this the way he does, or do you think that is potentially hugely problematic for him if he's going to win your state? >> if he's going to win pennsylvania, i want him like he has been doing, sticking to the issues. telling the american people,

tell the people in pennsylvania, how he's going to improve the quality of their lives and how he's going to create jobs for them. if he sticks that, he's got it made. >> congressman, a quick answer, was donald trump everything he needs to be to win the debates last night or do you think he needs to improve for the next one? >> i think he needs to be more aggressive. and i think he purposefully backed off from that. but, he's aware now that, no, he cannot do that because there's a bias in the fact that clinton isn't taken to task on her issues, so he has to bring them up. even if he has to interview, excuse me, even if he has to interrupt the moderator, which he had to do last night, because of the way that was being handled. >> okay. congressman marino from capitol hill, congressman, thank you very much. president obama's former campaign manager, democratic strategist, david plouffe joins us in a moment. we'll talk about the debate last night and about the electoral college situation right after this. yeah. well, we gotta hand it to fedex. they've helped make our e-commerce so easy,

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i'm excited about where we are in this country. he talks down to america every chance he gets. he calls us names, he calls us a third world country. he talks in such dire and dark terms. that's not who america. is. you know, we are the best problem solvers in the world. our diversity is a strength. >> that was hillary clinton talking to reporters on her campaign plane today. we are joined now by a man who helped prep president obama for a few debates of his own, and a man who now says that hillary clinton has a 100% -- i repeat that, 100% chance -- of winning the white house. so we'll now dub you mr. 100%, david plouffe. >> joe namath like. >> here's the thing. four years ago, president obama lost the first debate in denver and you at the time and subsequently said, you know, he lost that first debate, but the

structure of the race didn't change that much. there was a little blip in the polling, but ultimately it leveled back out to where it was before. why do we think this debate victory for hillary clinton, if it is a debate victory, why do you think it will matter in the ultimate outcome of the election? >> there are two differences, we were ahead going into that debate. so we went on probation. if we had lost the second debate, we would have been in deep trouble. secondly, i agree with mark, there was no oops moment, but there were still a lot of things hillary clinton could take out of that hall. donald trump saying he was smart not to pay taxes. the alicia machado incident, some of what he said about iraq. so obama, we were really bad that night, but there was nothing other than just a bad 90-minute performance. there was not much for romney to take out of that. i think those are the two differences between '12 and now. >> is there a point at which the clinton campaign can say, we have determined that the american people aren't going to find donald trump acceptable? or is that a project that continues -- >> it's got to continue every

day. the two big moments left are obviously the two debates. but every day. i think part of what they need to do, and i think she did a good job of it today, you've got to control the agenda every day as much as you can. now, the town hall debate is a much different beast. and i don't think it's a natural home game for either one of them, actually. >> you said before this debate, you thought it was 75% of what mattered remaining in the campaign. obviously she did well last night, everyone kind of agrees on that. what do you think the other 25% is, between now and election day? >> right. it's probably, 15 to 20% is the other two debates and the rest is the execution of the campaign. and the one thing i know hillary clinton did last night was make democrats, people weren't sure they were going to vote, more enthusiastic. i think she can add to that in the town hall. what i would like to see in the town hall is really -- >> how do you know that? >> first of all, democrats are easily panicked. and i think, you know, she looked strong, she took the fight to him. she talked about a lot of progressive issues. and by the way, if that's all she did, i would have been pleased. but i think she probably did a decent amount of good with

moderate swing voters. >> when campaigns are going poorly, particularly in your party, also in the other party, people start to panic and criticize. there's been a host of criticisms all three of us have heard over this tough period leading up to last night of the campaign. what are the criticisms that people are making of the clinton campaign's workings, not just the candidate, and are they valid in any way? >> i don't really think so. listen, i've been through these. so, you know, you've got your valleys and your mountaintops. and when you're in a valley, it's no fun. you can't do anything right. >> but what are people saying about the campaign -- i know you're saying, they're not true, and you're adviser to the campaign. but what are people saying about the clinton campaign. they're saying they're not doing the right things. what are those things, they're saying -- >> i think there's two parts to a campaign. there's the organizational side, and i have heard very little comment about that. the data, the analytics, the ground operation, are you funding that properly, do you believe in it, are you factoring that into your campaign strategy? i think in terms of the day-to-day strategic part of the campaign, you know, obviously, i

think they -- i think jen palmieri said they handed the illness inaccurately. so had they handled that better -- but, i think, generally, they're in a very good place. i think they've been super smart about the states they go to. that's going to be interesting, i think both of them now -- i think the map has narrowed, so how you apply resources and time is going to be very important. >> we would our bloomberg politics national poll came out yesterday and with millennial voters, hillary clinton was about 40%. donald trump was about 30%. barack obama was at 60% in 2012. that's a huge gap between hillary clinton's current performance and your former boss'. what does she need to do to fix that? can she fix it? >> that's a problem. not just a campaign problem, that's a problem. and i think that to me is still the -- well, executing these two debates and figuring out how to get your vote share up and turnout up. >> but this is millennials in particular. what can she do to fix that problem, if it can be fixed? >> things like last night, i think, helped, right? for sure, that provides more energy to volunteers, because

the best way to get a millennial -- and listen, there's a bunch of 18, 19, 20-year-olds that didn't vote for barack obama because they weren't eligible. you have to have a human being talk to them. they're not going to do it just because they see an ad. and there are a bunch of millennials that are choosing johnson. they've got to peel that off. this is the most important thing left in the campaign. you're right, it's not a crisis, but it's a huge problem. >> is the clinton campaign already thinking about, hey, if johnson's vote is high, we may need to go after him in some way. >> i don't think going after him. i think it's more having the intelligence on who is either an undecided voter, who's thinking about johnson, clinton, or who's soft johnson. now, i believe, historically, those third party numbers do drift down, but in a state like colorado, it's still going to be pretty healthy. >> and they may have to make the case not to go after him, but say, don't waste your vote. >> and it's close. the one benefit of them seeming close is that. >> david plouffe, you'll stay

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and explain why they are not just implausible, but impossible. so, let's look at the first one. this is the baseline here for any trump win, the big three, ohio, north carolina, florida. even democrats concede now iowa is probably going to be a trump state. all the possible scenarios start with the big three, plus iowa. now, let's -- that doesn't get them all the way to 270. that gets them to 259. let's look at the first scenario that could get trump to 270, which would be adding in here pennsylvania. the so-called pennsylvania path, 279, doesn't need to win anything but the big three, iowa and pennsylvania. you can see, trump could win the big three in iowa. could. >> no. >> he can't? >> so here's -- i think iowa -- the two state he's doing best in are iowa and ohio. but i still believe i would rather be her than -- >> i understand. but is it implausible, impossible that he could win florida? >> i would say it's very unlike

my. she's doing better in the polling than we ever decade and we won it twice. and the state has become more demographically friendly. >> so we've got a lot to get to. can he win north carolina? >> i think, yeah -- >> he can. >> he can, all right. >> so let's put our florida dispute aside. say he could win it. tell us why pennsylvania is impossible for trump. >> it's the easter bunny, okay, it doesn't exist? he's going to walk out of southeastern pennsylvania, philly, and those three suburban counties, delaware, montgomery, bucks, she's going to have north of 500,000 margin. there is just numerically not enough vote to pick up. >> has that state become more democratic since four years ago? >> if trump was a different candidate who had some appeal to suburban voters, i still think it would be hard for a republican. the problem is, it's like his northern virginia problem, his denver suburb problem, and his philadelphia suburb problem, it just -- he can't get there. could he get within two or three? i think she wins it four or five, yes, but he can't get to a win number. >> so let's look at scenario number two now.

this is what we call the new hampshire path. begins with the big three plus iowa, and then you add in nevada, new hampshire, and the main second district. that gets you right to 270 right there. nevada, new hampshire, and the second district of maine, where you get one electoral college. >> of those, the second district of maine is the most plausible. i think she's going to win new hampshire quite comfortably. i think that southern tier is kind of similar to what we just talked about in terms of pennsylvania suburbs out of philly. i know the polls are going to be close. ours were relatively close. >> but what you say makes this scenario impossible is new hampshire and nevada. >> i think if i would have ranked them, i think she's almost -- i think she's certain to win new hampshire in my view. >> explain to me, barack obama won nevada comfortably both times. won it by a lot in 2008. won it comfortably in 2012. why is she behind in polling in nevada with all the hispanics there? >> there are some polls that show her like 30-48. 100% of the people are going to vote. this is where i think the race is if donald trump, he may be at

a ceiling, but he's closer to a seal ceiling than she is. she is going to win more of the undecided vote. the third party vote will collapse a little bit, she'll get more of that. and in some of these polls, you have latino undecided vote, huge. nevada -- our own polling in nevada was never as rosy as the ultimate election outcome. >> let's look at three last scenarios that i'm sure you'll say by definition can't happen. one is -- involves colorado, no chance. >> no chance. >> so you're saying is this includes him winning florida. okay. >> every scenario. >> every scenario. >> all the scenarios out of the big three and iowa. >> colorado, i don't see it. i think she wins it. >> what about winning the silver state in wisconsin, get him to 275? >> wisconsin is going to be a clinton state, so is michigan, so is minnesota. i mean, the democratic strength in the upper midwest. now, barack obama had unique strength there, both times. but i just don't see it happening. >> unique strength because of the african-american vote. >> well, no, because -- you know he was from illinois.

>> right. >> and it was really interesting. that was always an underappreciated -- we didn't have to spend much time and money up the there. wisconsin was a little closer in '12 because of ryan. >> so colorado, right now the polling is really close there. and gary johnson is getting a big chunk of that vote. why are you so sure -- >> well, there were one or two polls that had it close. so if you look at modeling out the electorate. that may be one of johnson's best states. and again, i think she's going to absolutely mombo him with the latino vote in colorado. and you add suburban swing voters which i think she's going to win in a dominating way, even maybe more than we won in '08. >> as you said, the map has minored. the p campaign basically has as a proposition, pick two of these scenarios and just say, oh, go all in. trump could do a week-along bus tour in pennsylvania, right? or whatever, wisconsin, whatever they choose, right? so, what happens? >> because florida --

>> i understand. >> i'm not saying just that state, but basically, you could -- these combinations involve, let's assume iowa and ohio are safe. not for sure, but let's -- >> no, with i think she's going to win them both. >> i understand, but -- >> iowa and ohio? >> i do. >> iowa and ohio? >> your campaign is a little bit less optimistic about those. but let's just say we get down to the end, last three weeks, and he's got those pretty well secured. he basically could campaign in four states, right? he could campaign in florida, north carolina, and then any two to get him over the top. at that point, you're basically running for governor of four states at the same time. he could pour money in, right? republican allies could come in. i mean -- >> he doesn't have much of an organization. >> well, the republican party has an organization. >> that's not the same as the candidate. >> but all i'm saying is, in the end, you're saying now, look at the national map, he can't get to 270. but isn't it impossible to say, what happens if a guy who's willing to maybe drop a lot of money just to say, basically, aisle going to four states in three weeks?

>> no, because you're basically -- the product matters here. and he's a flawed product. that's again where my confidence comes in. this guy, in my view, is not going to be elected president. he's got to seal it. >> and your basic argument is that the premise here, he's not going to win all four of those states. >> no! no. i think she's going to win all four, but florida and north carolina, i would much rather be her. iowa and ohio are the toughest. >> david plouffe, we're 100% certain we'll see you again on the program. >> joe namath plouffe. >> if you're watching this program in washington, d.c., there's a good chance you can listen to it on 99.1 f.m., the nation's capital. we'll be right back.

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with us now for some more debate about last night's debate, msnbc political correspondent, kasie hunt, who follows the clinton campaign, and nbc news correspondent, katy tur, who follows the trump campaign, and comes to us from melbourne, florida, where trump will be holding a rally later tonight.

casie, we kasie, we asked this earlier in the show, what will they do to capitalize on her strong debate performance last night? >> i think the i think that has stood out to me most in the past 24 hours is hillary clinton's demeanor. she has come across a loose and relaxed. she threw a comment over her shoulder as reporters were shouting questions at her on the press plane. that's not something she does. she has not shone ease and willingness to banter around in those situations. and she is. and i think if she can hang on to that confidence that clearly she's taken away from the stage, it will make a real difference. >> and it will allow her to answer tough questions. that style, that attitude it will lend itself perhaps to her getting through the inevitable rough periods, if she can sustain it through that. >> i think that's right. and i think that you saw her answer last night, and the debate did not get into her e-mails terribly much. but where it did, she gave

basically, factually, the same answers she's given. but the tone that she used to give it was markedly different. and i think if she continues in that vain, as well, that's a place where they could see some success. >> katy, as you've talked to trump advisers behind the scenes, i'm wondering if you've had the experience we've had, some of them, unlike mr. trump, and the public spokespeople acknowledged that last night was not his finest hour. >> no, last night was not what they wanted. they wanted a more, what they would call, presidential trump. the trump that went down to mexico and met with the mexican president, if you will, not a trump that went on the attack unnecessarily. they said that they were expecting hillary clinton to come at them. they were expecting her to try to knock him off his game. they said that he was ready for that. clearly, though, he wasn't. i mean, what they're trying to do, guys, and you know this, is expand his base. his supporters are with him no matter what, they're not going to leave him. but he needs to find a way to get those moderate republicans, the women, to go under -- to

come into his camp. and to do that, he's got to seem like a less-risky choice. hillary clinton keeps calling him, basically a scary choice. he's got to prove to him that he's not. at the very least, keep them from voting for hillary clinton. last night, though, he was erratic, he was interrupting her. i think he interrupted her 29 times. she interrupted him nine times. he made a bunch of factual errors and a lot of misstatements. and he didn't come off as somebody who could let something slide. so this was not their finest hour. obviously, they're trying to put a public face on this. they're trying to use it to their advantage by saying that he's a unique candidate. that's what paul ryan said today. and calling hillary clinton canned and staged and overpracticed and scripted. so they're trying to spin it in their favor, but it's hard to see how that debate performance really gets them any new supporters. >> kasie, david plouffe just made the point, you know,

there's various things trump said last night that the clinton campaign can try to capitalize on, try to exploit. among the many things trump said that might be problematic, where does the trump campaign think they can keep getting mileage out of mistakes they made, given they didn't have an oops moment. >> i think there's a couple things, what he had to say about the housing crisis is one. i think what he had to say about birtherism issue, to people of color, is another. but i think what happened with miss universe is probably the one thing -- and you guys were talking about this, you know, the election being so much about particularly suburban women. and i think, you know, you saw her very deliberately kind of try to get that in a little bit at the end. it was clear that it was important for her to do it. and ting way you've seen them just push on that today, i think even they were a little bit surprised that he went as far as he did in essentially defending himself or doubling down, repeating himself, not to use a phrase that you guys have entered into our lexicon, anyway. but, you know, i think that that's something that they think

has staying power. >> i want to ask you both about the next debate. casie, you first. she took a lot of time off the trail, as you pointed out, to practice and prepare. there are fewer days now to election day. do you expect her to have a lot of down days to prepare for the next debate, or to be more like trump and be out there campaigning with some practice on the side. >> my sense is that they do need to make sure that she is out there, but on the one hand, they want to balance that with making sure she gets enough rest. >> any indication that trump will practice for for the next debate, given what he did last night? >> reporter: the campaigns wants him to practice more. they tried to get him to practice more for this debate. but they admit that it's hard to get him to focus on the issues, to get him to focus on any one thing. that's why you see hum campaigning, because he's a guy that always likes to be tonight go. and he was shown videotape of himself from the past debates, in the primary debates, to kind of show him where he needed to improve for the general election, and he thought every

answer he gave was perfect back they be. so there wasn't really a lot of room to tell him that he could have done something better, because he refused to see it. will this be a wake-up call for him? we're going to have to see. when he was down in the polls, we did start to see him get it together more, we saw him on prompt more. if this results in a downturn in the polls, then i would expect that he's going to take it a little bit more seriously. but if these polls remains the same and it remains neck and neck, and he sees a reason not to change, i can't imagine donald trump is going to be a different candidate than he's been for the past six months. >> katy, i want to put on your cycle analyst hat. you spent a lot of time exploring the psyche of donald j. trump. do you think that his mentions of the microphone, the moderator, the excuses he made today, does that not, in your view, signify, at least some kind of tacit acceptance to the notion that he did not perform all that well last night and that he lost the debate? >> reporter: i mean, he might be trying to convince himself that he performed well and

everybody's out to get him, that the mike wasn't good and lester wasn't good. last night he said lester was a good moderator and today he's saying that he lobbed unfair questions at him. but this is the same thing he did during the primaries, guy. he would come out, declare himself the winner, talk about all these online polls that he won, but then at the same time, he would be calling out the refs, calling out the moderators, calling out megyn kelly, calling out his opponents, saying everybody's being unfair to him, he didn't get enough time, he got too much time, the questions were too focused on him, he didn't get enough questions. so this is the same thing we've been seeing over and over again. i expect even if he did a wonderful job last night, he would still say that there was something wrong. it is part of his narrative, it's part of who he is. he's running against the establishment, and everybody else, frankly, from the media to the moderators to the microphone, to hillary clinton is the establishment. >> all right. katy tur -- >> the microphone is the establishment. >> the microphone is the establishment. that's a whole new marshal mcluhan-like phrase. >> reporter: i said it first.

>> thank you both for being here. you're wonderful and fabulous and we'll be right back. >> full credit, katy. don't let dust and allergens get between you and life's beautiful moments. flonase gives you more complete allergy relief. most allergy pills only control one inflammatory substance. flonase controls 6. and six is greater than one. flonase changes everything. ♪

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thanks for watching. we'll be back here tomorrow night, same bad time, same bad channel. until then, sayonara. >> "hardball" with chris matthews is next. the thrill of victory, the agony of defeat. let's play "hardball." good evening. i'm chris matthews up in new york. well, last night, 84 million americans watched the greatest long island drama since "the great gatsby" and there was a winner and there was a loser. i called it last night, clinton hit trump for his refusal to release his tax returns, for stiffing his business associates, for his birther claims and his attack on her, hillary clinton's looks and stamina. while playing to his fans, trump