this sunday, trump's terrible week. a rough debate. 3:00 a.m. tweets. and an obsession with the 1996 miss universe. >> she was the winner, and you know, she gained a massive amount of weight. and it was a real problem. >> now, a report that trump could have avoided paying taxes for 18 years. i'll talk to trump supporter rudy giuliani and clinton campaign manager robby mook. plus, a lead opinion lined up against donald trump, but to what effect? i'll take to anti-establishment voices from the left and right. michael moore and glenn beck. also, the vp debate. how much will tuesday's pence-kaine face-off matter? and live from new york, it is "snl." >> he hasn't released his tax returns, which means he's either not that rich.

>> wrong. >> not that charitable. >> wrong. >> or never paid taxes in his life. >> warmer. >> joining me is the editor of the cook political report. mark halperin, managing editor of bloomberg politics. maria kumar, ceo of voto latino. and the editor of the "national review." welcome to sunday. it's "meet the press." >> announcer: from nbc news in washington, this is "meet the press" with chuck todd. >> surprise, it's october. donald trump's bad week may have gotten a lot worse. today's "new york times" has a front page expose that trump declared a loss of $916 million on his 1995 tax return. which means it could have allowed him to avoid paying federal income taxes on nearly $1 billion worth of income over an 18-year period. all legal, by the way. the losses came from mismanagement of three casinos,

his airplane and the plaza hotel in new york. the "times" received the documents in the mail anonymously, with a return address of trump tower. his former accountant, now retired, verified them. the clinton campaign said, this bombshell report reveals the colossal nature of trump's failures. trump's campaign said he's paid hundreds of millions in state, local and federal taxes. trump tweeted this this morning. i know our complex tax laws better than anyone who has ever run for president and am the only one who can fix them. as you can see, no specific denial of anything in the "times" report. this comes at the end of a week where trump followed an unsteady debate performance with a parade of outbursts on television, twitter and the trail. it all came as he was closing the gap with hillary clinton. >> i don't think she's even loyal to bill if you want to know the truth. really, folks, really, why should she be, right?

>> reporter: just when he looks competitive, trump veers off message. >> that person was a miss universe person, and she was the worst we ever had. the worst. >> reporter: trump's inability to control his own emotions is standing between himself and the presidency. >> what's happened to our jobs. >> reporter: instead of talking about jobs and trade, clinton's e-mail controversy or a mideast spinning out of control, he spent five days attacking 1996 miss universe winner alicia machado. >> what were the names he called you? >> miss piggy, miss housekeeping, miss eating machine. >> she was the winning, and you know, she gained a massive amount of weight. it was a real problem. >> reporter: when the controversy was dying down, it was trump who kept it alive. in a 3:00 a.m. tweet storm. did clinton help out disgusting become a u.s. citizen to use her in the debate?

>> his latest twitter meltdown is unhinged, even for him. >> reporter: tony schwartz was trump's ghostwriter for "the art of the deal." >> he is like an untrained rottweiler. he bites someone and puts someone in jeopardy. >> reporter: every poll shows that trump lost the debate. trump isn't buying it. >> every single online poll said we won, which is great. >> from early on in his life with his father and later with his mentor, the advice was the same, which is never surrender, no matter what. >> reporter: trump is acting as if he lost, attacking the clinton's marital history in the interview with the "new york times." saying, quote, she is nasty but i can be nastier than she ever can be. >> he can say whatever he wants to say. >> reporter: trump's supporters embraced the idea of a flawed messenger who they say can shake up washington, but even they have become spectacle. >> i wish he'd talk about things

he'll change and that's it. stop this petty stuff, you know. a beauty queen from how many years ago? >> 20. >> reporter: surrogates say he'll lose if he doesn't rein himself in. >> this has been a week which has hurt him and shaken his own supporters. you can't tweet at 3:00 in the morning. there's no excuse ever, not if you're going to be the president of the united states. >> joining me is a top adviser to donald trump, rudy giuliani. welcome back to the show. >> thank you. >> respond to newt gingrich there. he said, this has been a lost week. do you disagree with that? >> yeah, i disagree with that. i think donald trump did really well in the debate. i think he accomplished what he had to accomplish, which is he showed that he understands the economy better than hillary clinton. she demonstrated she has no understanding of the economy at all. she was just completely lost in her answer to how we're going to bring back jobs in america.

it just taxes people more, which is the reason they've been driven out of america. i thought on foreign policy, he displayed a better understanding of islamic terrorism. >> on monday, you tweeted, this debate was not trump's best, but there are still two more. >> i didn't tweet that. it's not my tweet. >> okay. fair enough. >> i never said that. that's somebody pretending to be me. there are about four of them out there that pretend to be me. >> okay. so you thought everything went hunky-dory on monday night? you thought it was the best he could do? >> no. i think he could be a lot better. look, we're all debaters, and i'm a lawyer, so i can always find four or five more things you could have done. i thought, for example, when she brought up cyber security, it was an excellent chance to point out how she's been the worst violator of cyber security so far in the history of the united states. she's exposed more of our top secret documents than any secretary of state in history. if i were to analyze the debate,

i would have said he won it and there were two or three opportunities he could have delivered a knockout blow and he didn't take them. >> finish your thought. >> we have more debates coming. >> fair enough. let me ask you about the "new york times" story this morning, where now, there is some evidence that he didn't -- legally avoided paying federal income taxes on almost $1 billion worth of income because of losses he obtained in his businesses. is it important now for donald trump to release his tax returns? many even of his supporters, including a guy like roger stone, thinks he ought to release his tax returns. >> this points out one of the reasons why releasing tax returns is so bad. the "new york times" writes this long story, and then somewhere around paragraph 18, they point out there was no wrongdoing. now, people have a hard time understanding how taxes work. if donald trump hadn't taken those losses, he could have been sued by his investors.

he could have sued by his busiss partners. when i run a business, and i run a business, and i don't take advantage of the five deductions that are available to me, even if you think those deductions are unfair, then i violated my fiduciary duty. i have clients that take losses like that, and i advise them, you have to take those losses. otherwise, you're not doing your job. >> the very people he wants to work for, when they basically fail at their jobs, or their job goes away, you know, they don't have this kind of ability. i mean, this is basically a deduction that benefits wealthy businessmen. he failed at his businesses, the first three businesses were failures, and then he was able to get a tax break for the failure on the next $1 billion of income. look, it's all legal. should it be? >> that's a good question. but it is and it was. we're talking about 21 years ago. if he didn't take advantage of it, he would have been sued.

maybe someone doesn't want to put out the tax returns because someone will distort it that way. the reality is, he is a genius. what he did was he took advantage of something that could save his enterprise, and he did something we admire in america. he came back. the "art of the deal" is all about that. so did steve jobs and winston churchill. churchill was thrown out of politics twice and came back. great men have big failures, and then they take those failures and return them into results. i'd rather have a genius like trump other than hillary clinton just getting jobs for the fbi. >> you think it is a good example to basically be able to avoid paying federal taxes? take advantage of loopholes, where somebody wealthy can avoid paying the federal taxes? i understand it is legal. but is this the right thing we should have in a president? >> first of all, a lot of the

people that are poor take advantage of loopholes and pay no taxes. those are loopholes, also, and they pay no taxes. also, no matter who you are, if you have a $30 operating loss, you can carry it forward to the next year. poor people take advantage of that, also. now, do i think the tax code should be simplified? absolutely. will he do away with things like that? he's probably better positioned than anyone because he understands the tax code better than anyone else. i'd rather have a genius who understands the tax code and wants to reform it. he is against giving hedge fund guys the big break they get in paying only 15% tax. you have to figure out who you're working for. there, he was working for private interest and has to take advantage of those rules. no wrongdoing. if he could have these kinds of results for us in america, we wouldn't be having 1.5% recovery. we'd be having 5% recovery. >> all right. plus -- >> he did pay hundreds of millions of dollars in taxes. state taxes. local taxes.

>> we don't know that. how do we know that without him releasing the tax return? >> if he didn't, he'd be in jail. that's why. he'd be sitting behind bars if he didn't pay taxes, sales tax, property tax. >> i understand that. >> he'd be in jail. >> we don't know how much it was. we can take your word for it. >> all you have to do is look at his 104-page financial disclosure form. look at the property he has, figure out the tax rate and figure out what he paid. since they didn't put him in jail, i can guarantee he paid it. >> what did you mean when you talked about monica lewinsky and hillary clinton. if he didn't know what bill clinton was doing, she was too stupid to be president? >> after the long, long history of bill clinton, gennifer flowers, 27 people making claims against him, including a settlement with one of them where it was obviously true, when she first heard about lewinsky, to pretend it was false -- >> she was wrong to stand by her husband? >> no, to attack the person.

>> you are able to give this charge? >> i prosecuted people that had raped. >> you have your own infidelities. >> i confess it to my priest. i've never attacked someone who has been the victim of sexual abuse. not only that, i've been put in jail who have been the victims of sexual abuse and i never participated in that. you're bringing up my personal life, and it's irrelevant to what hillary clinton did. she's running for president, i'm not. a woman who pretends to be a feminist shouldn't be taking money from countries where women are stoned, where women are killed for adultery and women can't drive. she's taken hundreds of millions from those countries. >> mr. mayor, i'll leave it there. >> thank you. >> appreciate you sharing your views. joining me from the other side, hillary clinton campaign manager, robby mook. mr. mook, welcome to the show.

>> good morning. >> i want to play a new ad that the trump campaign is hitting on hillary clinton and get you to respond to it on the other side. >> why aren't i 50 points ahead, you might ask? >> maybe it's because the director of the fbi said you lied about your e-mails. >> there was classified material e-mails. >> or maybe it's because your policies allowed isis and terrorism to spread. or maybe it's because you call americans deplorable. >> so it's that last part, the deplorable, and everything they've put together in the ad. anything in that ad that tells you it is not an effective hit on secretary clinton? >> well, a lot of it simply isn't true. you know, the fbi said that there was not -- no wrongdoing, that they would bring against secretary clinton. i think a lot of the people that stand by donald trump are deplorable, and the things they say are deplorable. you know, trump has had a really bad week. he failed in the debate. he has spun out of control subsequent to that, insulting

machado. his 3:00 a.m. tweet storm. you know, his campaign is spinning out. they're grasping for anything that they can to throw mud back. secretary clinton is going to keep on the campaign trail, talking about how she's actually going to make a difference in people's lives. you know, this morning we see donald trump as having to defend the fact that he may not have paid taxes for 20 years, which is something most americans don't have the option to do. so we're just going to stay focused on how she's going to create jobs. >> but are you -- >> and get wages rising. >> with everything that has come out on donald trump, all of the different hits that have come out on donald trump and, yet, you're not 50 points ahead. if anything, this is a close race. he does have a path to 270. he can win. everything that's happened, and he can still win. is that a reflection on what the country thinks of hillary clinton?

>> no. i think it's a reflection that the presidential campaign process is competitive. our country, fortunately or unfortunately, is very polarized right now. people fall into their different camps. and people are concerned. they want to see change. but what's becoming clearer, particularly since this debate, is that donald trump isn't going to present that change in any way whatsoever. we talk about the rigged system. donald trump embodies that. the idea he didn't have to pay taxes for 20 years, or at least that's what the "new york times" is telling us. we feel very good about where we are, but this will be competitive till the end and we'll have to work hard. >> you guys are struggling to win over voters under the age of 30. new audis me out from a fundraiser from earlier this year, when secretary clinton was running against bernie sanders. she described some of sanders' supporters as kids that are essentially still living in their parents' basement. was that meant to be a shot at sanders' supporters?

>> well, chuck, actually, i'm glad you asked this question. and i really encourage everybody to listen to that full audio. the original piece that came out on it had to have the headline changed because it completely mischaracterized what she was talking about. she was talking about young people that she'd met who were frustrated that they graduated from college and went into an economy where they couldn't find the job they wanted. >> didn't help that the folks laughed when she said that at the fundraiser. >> well, when i listened to it, i didn't hear it that way at all. i heard her reflecting the things that she's hearing when she's out campaigning. in fact, of these two candidates, she's the only one who has presented a real plan to create jobs and a real plan to help families afford college. she and bernie sanders worked together on a new college compact that will create tuition-free education for people and families earning under $125,000 a year. >> quickly, i know you're not pulling out of ohio, but -- >> not at all. >> -- it's clear the numbers aren't great.

do you view ohio as a must-win state anymore? >> i actually don't even accept that premise. ohio is a battleground state. i think either candidate can win it. we're working incredibly hard. i think secretary clinton can win it and we'll work to make sure it happens. >> robby mook, campaign manager for hillary clinton. i'll leave it there. >> thanks, chuck. anti-establishment opinion is trumping the elites this campaign season. i'll be joined by a filmmaker, michael moore, on the left, and broadcaster glenn beck on the right to talk about. later, they're back. "saturday night live" takes on the 2016 campaign. >> he hasn't released his tax returns, which means he's either not that rich. >> wrong. >> not that charitable. >> wrong. >> or he's never paid taxes in his life. >> warmer. for a 100% fresh mouth. just ask listerine® users. the very people we studied in the study of bold. people who are statistically

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welcome back. the panel is here. maria, president and ceo of voto latina, the editor of the cook report. and michael halperin. correction here. rudy giuliani was right, it was a parody account we got that. what he said the night of the debate was, he did think, as he clified, he said, i would skip the next debates if i were trump. that is the correct aspect there of rudy giuliani. mark halperin, tax returns. what we have this morning, how bombshelly is it? >> the first of many october surprises. the "times" chose to publish on

october 1st and i think we'll see more from both of them. i don't think this is as big a deal as the "times" blew it up to be. we didn't learn anything new. they don't know for a fact he didn't pay federal taxes. the story says he might not have. i think americans are going to -- the clinton campaign will continue to press on it. americans who think this is a bad thing, that he won't release the returns, will continue to go for it. i don't think it is a dominant factor and i don't think it'll change the race much. >> how do you think rudy defending it is smart? >> i wouldn't go with the poor people exploit attack system, too, argument. >> was that a mistake? >> he came around to the, he knows the system and, therefore, he can fix it. that argument for trump had much more traction than i would have thought. look, i exploited a rigged system, and i was inside it, therefore, i can fix it. that argument is more intuitive to people than i thought. >> he said that the whole time. the "times" didn't change the narrative of what many people already believed. >> right. this is already baked in.

i think both of the points here, already baked into your perceptions of who donald trump is. the question in my mind isn't, is this the bombshell report, it's how does trump react to it as we go forward? as we've seen in the history, certainly of this week, but in the history of this campaign, it's donald trump's reaction to difficult stories or difficult situations that gets him in trouble. the story in and of itself, he can pivot off of this and make it about the rigged system and make it about he's the only one who can change the system. or is he going to get caught up in this and spin his wheels and go off topic? >> i think that is the thing. this whole week has been drip, drip, drip. he could have actually avoided this whole thing with the taxes had he just showed it. no one is surprised, the fact he hasn't paid it. i think there is hypocrisy in the fact he talks about we don't have good education, we have deteriorating infrastructure. he keeps talking about undocumented immigrants. they pay $12 billion of taxes every year. they have skin in the game. he is not contributing to a system he says he's going to go in and fix.

>> what about -- okay, if this is -- i kind of think if you are the clinton campaign, mark, will you sit there and say, we missed the machado story? it seemed to drive him crazier in ways than taxes. >> just to be clear, i think his failure to release the returns and whether he paid tax or not is a big problem, i just don't think it is a new big problem. it's an old problem. the clinton campaign decided months ago, donald trump is a target-rich environment. what are we going after? they decided on one thing. he is not fit to be president. doesn't have the right temperament. he doesn't know, you know -- is nice to people. the machado story allowed them to go right to their message. this story does to some extent, because as amy suggested, he's tweeting. not about change in washington or how hillary clinton is a part of the problem, but he's tweeting about his taxes. it goes to the fact he's easily baited. >> if they go the monica route -- >> i don't understand. >> i don't understand it. >> terrible.

>> does anyone understand this? >> i think it is right that she was part of the defense against these women. just given bill's vulnerabilities, it was part of his political operation to discredit and basically smear these women, when they got in the way. a lot were telling the truth. but prosecuting that in a way that doesn't make -- make it seem as though you're blaming hillary for bill's infidelities is going to be really difficult. it opens up a can of worms for trump and every surrogate who may have had problems in their marriage. >> what he's been trying to do is open up his base. he needs republican women in his camp. going after a woman that basically said, my marriage is important. my family is important. i mean, that's really hard for him -- >> the people at the top of the campaign have been talking about clinton's personal life for a quarter century. it is no surprise they say, what inspires us to say clinton shouldn't be back in the white house? no surprise they'd be tempted to turn to this.

>> does it hit the 30-year-old argument, that they've been around? >> the number one concern, which goes to what mark said, you talk to the clinton campaign and others around them, the number one concern that voters have about donald trump is his temperament and judgment. if he is going to get the campaign back on the rails, it is on judgment and temperament, not this. >> i'll leave it there for a minute. when we come back, we've just heard a bunch of elite opinion right here. we're going to talk about the fact elite opinion around the country is lining up behind hillary clinton. this year, it doesn't seem to matter. from stage left, michael moore. from stage right, tv and radio's glenn beck will join me next on why that is. because my teeth are yellow. why don't you use a whitening toothpaste? i'm afraid it's bad for my teeth. try crest 3d white. crest 3d white diamond strong toothpaste and rinse... ...gently whiten... ...and fortify weak spots. use together for 2 times stronger enamel. crest 3d white.

welcome back. elite opinion in the united states is lining up against donald trump in ways we've never seen before. consider this, neither president george h.w. bush or president george w. bush or any member of the bush family is openly backing trump. no ceo of a fortunate 500 company is endorsing trump. some newspapers are endorsing a democrat for the first time in 100 years. even some like the "weekly standard" with anti-trump and

some are pro-clinton. yet, republican voters right now are ignoring establishment opinion. they're sticking with trump. we're witnessing a withering away of the power of the elites. joining me are two people who bucked the establishment themselves. the left, film maker michael moore. then we'll talk to glenn beck. michael, welcome to the show, sir. >> thank you. >> let me start with something you wrote a few months ago. you believe donald trump is going to win the election. you believed it before the convention. you wrote this. from green bay to pittsburgh is the middle of england. broken and depressed, struggling. the smokestacks across the country side with the carcass of what we used to call the middle class. working and non-working people lied to by the trickle down by reagan. after the debate, you thought trump was successful in what he needed to do. explain. >> yes. which i don't want him to win.

let's make that clear. i've been trying to say for months here, i live in michigan. across the midwest, across the rust belt, i understand why a lot of people are angry. they see donald trump as their human molotov cocktail. that they get to go into the voting booth on november 8th and throw him into a political system that has made their lives miserable. so i think at the convention, i was worried democrats, the clinton campaign were all doing an end zone dance when they were only on the 50 yard line. and the celebrating after the debate, everybody needs to have their game face on here and realize that trump can win. he can pull this off. and everybody has to be at full force here. otherwise, it has a chance of happening. i've lived long enough to know -- you know, i never thought a b-actor whose co-star

was a chimpanzee would ever be president of the united states, or george w. bush, who was just completely not there himself, that he could ever get elected. well, i take this seriously now. i don't just -- trump is not just comedy to me. i think that people see that he is maybe their messenger. even though they don't necessarily like him or agree with him so much, i think that they -- >> do you -- >> -- love the idea of blowing up the system. >> do you think every time a newspaper editorial comes out and denounces trump, and every time a former cabinet secretary denounces trump, do you think it backfires? do you think it oddly reinforces trump's message? >> i think a lot of people who have seen their livelihood vaporize, no longer a part of the middle class and struggling to survive, pay no attention anymore to what the media or people in power say. they've lost credibility with a lot of people. i mean, just take what's

happened from how we got into the iraq war. where was the media on that before the war? where was the "new york times," for instance? putting judith miller's stories, concocting weapons of mass destruction on the front page of their paper. where was the media while wall street was creating this crisis that was about to happen? so people don't trust the media. they don't listen to it. and for good reason. the media has let them down. the rich and the powerful have let them down. they used to believe in that and vote for the rich and powerful. a lot of them aren't going to do that this time. for some strange reason, they see donald trump as their means to get back at the system. >> will they ever see hillary clinton as somebody that can change the system and make their lives better? >> i hope so. >> but how does she do it? how does she convince them? do you think she carries too much establishment baggage?

>> well, yes and no. i mean, look, she's also creating history here. i mean, we have a chance to elect the first woman president in this country. this rarely gets discussed anymore. but i think -- people say, i don't trust hillary or she's not trustworthy. what did she ever do to you? it's like, she was going to water your plants for you while you were gone for the weekend and didn't? what is this -- >> clearly, democrats let them down. is that the issue here, and she's just another democrat? they don't trust them anymore? >> i don't think people do trust the democrats. how else could a socialist win 22 states? i mean, in my state of michigan, bernie sanders won. if hillary clinton and the democrats had a difficult time with him, that should have been the red flag to everybody, that there is a mood out there where people are upset at the democrats and the republicans. what has to happen here though, like with the brexit vote in england, is that people where

i'm from have to understand that why they may not like hillary that much or she may be a bitter pill to swallow or whatever, you better take your medicine because the opposite is going to be much, much worse. >> okay. >> and i also don't think it's -- to be picking on the millenials is wrong. we were all 19. the last thing you want to do is wag your finger, your adult finger, at these millenials. they're upset at the whole thing. they're upset at the world that's been handed to them. you know, they didn't create the climate change. they didn't start the war. now they have to fix this election? i hope they vote for hillary clinton. but the rest of us have got to get out there and do what we have to do. >> michael moore, appreciate you coming on. i know you're in the middle of doing a documentary on these very voters and what's going on. it'll be -- we'll all look forward to that. thank you for coming on. >> thank you. >> let's talk about this from another perspective, the right. glenn beck, founder of "the blaze."

anti-establishment type of guy. mr. beck, welcome back to the show. >> thank you very much, chuck. >> last time you were on, you said, i don't belong to anything anymore, and i want to feel like i belong to something. i don't even like my country is even the same. i don't belong to anything. nobody is listening to me and i don't have any levers that control my own life. you were describing the way you feel as if there are people out there -- and somebody else described it to me -- they feel homeless in their own country. is that what you were trying to get across? >> yeah. that's not just describing me. i think that's describing a lot of people. i can't actually bring myself to say that your last guess was right, only because then there will be a youtube clip of me saying that. >> that's okay. >> it'll be used against me. >> mr. moore probably is worried about the same thing for him. >> right. but he has diagnosed the problem in the country. nobody feels like they're

listening. we're shouting over each other, and you know, everything -- i mean, i was watching the first 20 minutes of the show. gee, who would have guessed those guests would have said those things? everybody feels like there is a play going on, and we're just watching it and looking at each other and shaking our heads in disbelief. nobody is listening to the hard working american who doesn't feel like they belong to anything anymore. in fact, it's almost as if we're standing outside, and we're not being invited to this party at all. it's going to backfire. it's interesting that you would have michael moore and me both on the same show talking about this because i think there's a lot of people that would claim that michael moore and glenn beck are responsible for a lot of this. i can't speak for michael because i honestly don't watch

much of what he does, and i'm sure he doesn't with me, but i warned about this. you know, when they were mocking me for bringing up nazis, the reason why i did many of the times was the warn about the rise of the uber right in europe that would bleed into america. it's happening. we have to change our course, and we have to change our course as individuals. now. >> you and i were -- had an interesting back and forth before this show when we were talking about this segment. i think one of the challenges i know you wanted to discuss is how do you -- the eventual winner has to govern. the eventual winner is going to be governing a populous where 40% won't accept the result and 40% won't listen to what anyone is saying out of washington. give a recipe of how to start to fix this problem. >> no. i've been looking through

history and the only thing i can come back to is gandhi and martin luther king. what we're going through is more of a malcolm x attitude. we don't understand reconciliation, we just want to win. we have to stop winning and start reconciling with each other. realize we're not going to lose our houses or our jobs or our country. we're losing something much more important. we're losing ourselves. we're losing our civility and decency. we're losing our neighbors and our family. how high of a price are we willing to pay before we say, the idea that malcolm x had, which was get em, is not the path we should go on. we have to start reconciling with each other. unfortunately, right now, there is no leader to do that nationally. it's going to require each of us in our own communities to stand and be shamed. and be pilloried for it. but actually stand and do it.

>> all right. glenn beck, i'm going to leave it there. both you and michael moore proved why this was a segment that all of us here were looking forward to. appreciate you coming on. >> you bet. later, tim kaine and mike pence get ready to square off in the vice presidential debate on tuesday. can they do anything to make a dent in the campaign? conservatives argued there is a missing white vote ready to back a republican nominee. is donald trump the candidate that can get them to vote? stay with us. .another anti-wrinm in no hurry to make anything happen. neutrogena® rapid wrinkle repair works... ...in one week. with the... fastest retinol formula. ...to visibly reduce wrinkles. neutrogena®.

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welcome back to this week's data download. there has been the belief by some that in 2016, a working class white army is going to emerge for donald trump and swing key states for him. we've looked at the data in two of the states. florida and pennsylvania. the numbers suggest there is a missing working class white vote out there. working class whites who stayed home in 2012. are these folks actually registering to vote for 2016? let's start with florida. in the five counties with the highest percentage of white working class voters, places that should lean republican, voter registration is up 4.5% from last fall.

but that's lower than the state's total registration increase of 4.7%. and compare that to the five most diverse counties in florida, which largely lean democratic. registration is up 5.7%. so there does not seem to be a trump advantage in florida. let's go to pennsylvania. in the five most white working class counties, voter registration is up by a mere 2.8%. it's significantly lower than the state updates overall, 4.8%. and again, lower in pennsylvania than the five most diverse counties in the state, where voter registration increased over 5%. so in these places where trump has the most votes to gain, the voters who potential could win him the election, there is no evidence that people are registering to vote in droves. there is no evidence that people are in the counties registering people to vote. many of the folks stayed home in 2012. it's quite possible we'll see the same thing this november. coming up, more from "snl"'s take on the election from an

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let's bring the panel back. welcome back, guys. i know all of you were curious about the michael moore and glenn beck conversation. i'll throw up a statistic about the opinion elite.

major newspaper endorsements from the top 100 newspapers, 16 for clinton. 4 for gary johnson. donald trump has zero. we do not include the "national inquirer" in our list of major newspapers. >> coveted. >> i know others do. look, elite opinions have had, i would say, no new influence on the campaign. how about that? >> you can argue they've been having less and less influence every year. whether you put this up in 2004 or 2008. we've seen it now, the gradual decline. not just in elites and media, but in elites in everything. business, organized religion. it's much more diffused. the question, i think, that didn't get answered in this was, who is responsible for creating this? people in the media also have a responsibility for that. so when i see folks coming out and kind of wringing their hands about how terrible and uncivil it is, they've been helping -- they've been making a lot of money in helping to create this kind of conversation. >> you look at just a trust of the federal government.

1964, it was about 80% of people thought it would do the right thing all or some of the te. now it is in the teens. it's true of almost every major institution. i think a lot of this is we live in a different, decentralized age and we're probably never going back to a time when people have the faith in big, centralized institutions. one that held up well, notably, local government. >> right. >> and the military. >> and the military. >> both the military, i would argue, draws from a diverse pool of americans. that has helped. >> also when you start looking at the effect within the media, you've basically had a network for the last 15 years saying that you can't trust politicians. the government is broken. after that, people start internalizing that. we end up getting a candidate like donald trump, who is anti-establishment, completely populous rhetoric. you're like, well, there is such a shift when people say, i deponent trust government. it's because we've had a propaganda machine the last 15, 20 years saying you shouldn't. >> it's mostly economic.

trump and sanders weren't members of the parties they ran for. both of them talk about the economic elites and government elites being out of touch with what's happened to the american dream. i think both parties have to get an understanding of why the two guys did so well, regardless of who wins. >> either one of these, particularly hillary clinton, will have to deal with 40% of the country who may not think the election -- >> is even legitimate. >> and will not listen to anything she is saying. like how do you begin repair that trust? that was the question i don't think either one of them could answer. >> i think it was telling when lester holt, that was his final question, and i think it was one of the most brilliant ones. she said, i will accept the results of the election. donald trump hemmed and hawed -- >> he answered the question saying i'll support her. then the next day, pulled it back. >> he said -- and it was interesting watching his rhythm.

he started saying, well, there is a lot of people that was supposed to be deported but now they're citizens. he's trying to say, i'm going to try to delegitimize this because i don't like to lose. it is a window into how he feels about winning at all costs. even to the cost of our democracy. >> we know if republicans -- if hillary clinton wins, republicans who compromise with her in any way, shape or form will be completely demonized. will have no ability to win a primary. it just is a self-perpetuating -- >> she'll probably win with under 50% and there will be a republican house opposed to her, the e-mail thing will drag on and she's not a good politician. none of this adds up to an inspiring administration that'll restore faith. >> the key for whoever wins, the election night speech, the cabinet appointments and -- >> the concession speech. >> right.

>> it might be more important. >> right. >> one of the things we're not talking about with donald trump, he's low on the polls but i think we can expect almost a bradley surprise. meaning there is a lot of folks that may not feel they want to publicly say in polls they want to vote for him. when it is between them and the box, they might pull it out. >> i don't buy that yet. we've not seen any evidence of that in the primaries. people who said they were going to vote for trump voted for him. the people that are saying, that we're hearing, i'm not going to vote for donald trump, they're republicans. if they come home and vote for donald trump, there is no surprise in that. the surprise would be the people that trump pointed out who don't vote and aren't normally part of the process. if they come out, that would be the surprise. >> even though you don't see it in the registration data, and they don't have any ground operation to speak of, i would not be shocked if he can change the electorate somewhat by turning out the working class white workers who were missing in 2012. his core message is built for those people.

>> trajectory, he could get to 265 electoral votes. he's five electoral votes away. once you're five away -- >> anything can happen. my favorite parlor game though is more hidden hillary vote or hidden trump vote? i think it is more even than you might think. quick pause here. back in 45 seconds with our end game segment and some more "snl." we'll be right back. coming up, "meet the press" end game, brought by boeing. building the future one century at a time.

>> announcer: "meet the press" end game is brought to you by boeing. building the future one century at a time. back now with end game, as we try to land the show plane here. vp debate. good news is, i put a compilation of the most memorable moments from vp debates. here it is. >> jack kennedy was a friend of mine. senator, you're no jack kennedy. >> we had enough killed and wounded in this war, 1.6 million americans, enough to fill the city of detroit. >> nice to meet you. can i call you joe? >> there you go. by the way, these most memorable moments -- >> they all had one thing in common. none of the candidates ended up winning. >> that's the point. you can win the vp debate and does your ticket that much good, right, mark? >> there is one way the debate will break through, if tim kaine pulls out his cellphone and

tweets about a mike pence sex tape. the only way they'll get attention. >> it can stop a bad news cycle and donald trump needs to stop a news cycle. >> no one is anticipating this vice presidential debate like the trump campaign. it'll change the media conversation. otherwise, it'll be perhaps one of the most ernest vice presidential debates in all of american history. and one of the least consequential. >> it is interesting in talking to clinton folks. they want to -- the kaine's goal is make pence defend everything trump says. pence wants to make it about issues. awkward position for kaine. he has to say, let's not talk about trade but trump. >> they don't want to be the angry person going after mike pence. mike pence is reasonable. he is the one that normalizes donald trump. so that is going to be something that i don't actually think mike pence wants to get into the issues either. he wants to say, he gets off his handle a bit but he is a good guy.

that's why i stick my political career on you. i think it'll be a challenge for them. >> one other thing pence can do in all seriousness. he can energize the base of the republican party. through dog whistles and direct statements about the movement, he can inspire people to vote for the ticket. >> of the many things trump forgot to do in the debate, the biggest one i've heard from some is he forgot to talk about the supreme court. that was actually a point. it is how you get skeptical republicans, how you yank them on board. aka, ted cruz. >> i think pence is going to go in prepared. he nows how to do this. he'll be on message and will talk about how incredibly on message he was. then by the next day, we may be off on another tweet storm. who knows. >> he is the defender in chief for donald trump. he has to constantly deflect, defend, explain away, and he has not had a hiccup. he has done an exemplary job. >> with a smile on his face. >> whatever happens, we make up

wednesday morning and the next presidential debate is a couple days away. >> and we know he is prepping for that. last night, "snl" was back. obviously, they waited to set their sights on the campaign. here you go. >> gina, huge gina. >> secretary clinton, what do you think about this. >> i think i'm going to be president. >> senator clinton is the prune juice of this election. she might not seem that appetizing, but if you don't take her now, you're going to be clogged with crap for a very long time. >> secretary clinton, did you have a response? >> um, not a response, more of a request. can america vote right now? >> look, we laugh about "snl," but when it stamps the campaign, the candidates don't shake that image.

>> i mean, tina fey basically sealed the fate of sarah palin. that's what they're looking for now. is alec baldwin going to seal the fate of trump? >> i was skeptical alec baldwin. >> genius. he's got it nailed. the reality, we all see this. you talk to voters across the country. there is not a great deal of happiness about these being the choices. that's what the "snl" thing tapped into as much as anything else. >> to me, the prune juice line might be the most accurate line. >> i think it's how many voters are -- >> "politico" may fact check the line. >> zero pinocchios on that one. nbc news will provide live coverage of the vice presidential debate on tuesday. thank you. all of us at "meet the press" want to say thank you and good luck to jim miklaszewski after 31 years at nbc. enjoy the golf game. still mediocre. we'll be back next week. because if it's sunday, it's

"meet the press." week. becauf it's when i saw her, i lost concept of time. i reached in, pulled her out, and started screaming help. >> please! oh, my god! wake up! >> it was the worst seconds in my life. >> how was it possible? >> i would give anything if she were alive today. >> such a sweet young wife and mom. such a shattering death. >> i cried all night long. >> he was downstairs with the kids. s