thanks for watching, sayonara. >> "hardball" with chris matthews is next. >> the tax man cometh. let's play "hardball." good evening. i'm chris matthews in washington. you know those old polaroid photographs, you would take the photo and as you shook the paper, you would see the picture slowly come into view before you. is that what we're seeing with donald trump? day after day, the real man reveals more and more of himself. we watch him on stage or read his tweets and see what he says on fox and gradually the picture comes into focus. it hasn't happened all at at once.

his people get him to use the teleprompter so he won't say what he really thinks off the cuff. he can't be stopped from relentlessly be donald trump. we have the popular image of trump, the successful real estate developer, for example, who celebrates his wealth and business acumen, the man who runs casino scasinos, hotels, e airline. but then you have the other man, that's the trump that according to the times declared a $916 million loss on his 1995 income tax returns. a tax deduction so substantial, it could have allowed him to paying any income taxes for up to 18 years. the trump camp has neither denied or confirmed the reporting. surrogates like chris christie and rudy giuliani, in fact, spent the weekend saying the story says their candidate is actually a genius. that's the word used, for successfully navigating and avoiding the tax code. today on the trail, hillary

clinton took a swing at her opponent. his name is trump. let's watch her. >> in the debate, he said it was smart to avoid paying taxes. yesterday his campaign was bragging, it makes him a genius. here's my question. what kind of genius loses $1 billion in a single year? this is trump to a t. he's taken corporate excess and made a business model out of it. he abuses his power, games the system, puts his own interests ahead of the country's. it's trump first and everyone else last. >> she's rolling up the score. trump defended his business success at a rally out in colorado today. let's watch it. >> i understand the tax laws better than almost anyone, which is why i am one who can truly fix them. as a businessman and real estate

developer, i have legally used the tax laws to my benefit. honestly, i have brilliantly -- i have brilliantly used those laws. the news media is now obsessed with an alleged tax filing from the 1990s, at the end of one of the most brutal economic downturns in our country's history. i was able to use the tax laws of this country and my business acumen to dig out of the real estate mess. i reached within myself and delivered for my company, my business, my family, and the communities where hi propertied existed and i really delivered. >> meanwhile, trump and the campaign are also continuing to come into focus this weekend, while advisers and supporters like newt gingrich and marsha blackburn have publicly pleaded with trump to stay on message, trump went spectacularly offscript on saturday night. he mocked hillary clinton for her illness, for her state of mind, and her marriage. let's watch him. >> she's supposed to fight all

of these different things. and she can't make it 15 feet to her car. give me a break. give me a break. >> she's got bad temperament. she could actually be crazy. she should be in prison, let me tell you. she should be in prison. hillary clinton's only loyalty is t her financial contributors and to herself. i don't even think she's loyal to bill, you want to know the truth. and really, folks, really, why should she be, right? why should she be? >> wow. and for more on the real donald trump, i'm joined now by nbc's hallie jackson in richmond, virginia, right at the vp debate sight for tomorrow night. susan page, and global editorial director, howard fineman.

hallie, you're on the site right now, but let's talk about donald trump, this weekend. was there an effort to get him to talk along the lines that he could win the election? i've been saying this myself. he had a winning message for weeks. the polling we've got tonight to show you shows that he's blown it. he's blown away the role that he had a lead in this campaign. he's now down behind her, about five points on average. that can be lethal in a campaign at this point, a month out from the election. why doesn't he talk about the issues that got him to where he is, jobs, illegal immigration, stupid wars? why is he talking about machado and talking everything else that will never get him a single vote. >> right, and bill clinton and hillary clinton and all of these questions. he seems to be unable to help himself at times. when you look at what happened saturday night, and there was evidence of this today, his campaign wants him to be talking about jobs and about the economy and about national security. i had an adviser, somebody close to the campaign say to me, today, i wish i didn't have to go out and talk about these

issues. i will, because the media is picking up on it, but i would rather be talking about, you know, national security and some of these issues that have put trump where he is. the problem is, he cannot help going back after hillary clinton, when he feels attacked. that is what you saw saturday night in the sound bite that you played from his rally in p.a. today, he tried to get back on message. and let it be noted on saturday, too, his campaign had a script that he was supposed to be delivering that night. and we saw again and again, him veer off that script, rather than looking at the prompter, he riffed. toda hwas at that national security forum, talking with veterans, trying to get back on message, but with trump, it rarely sticks. >> i was just thinking, of all the things you can use against hillary clinton in a debate, calling her crazy is nutty itself. nobody thinks that hillary clinton is crazy. she's one of the most sound minds around. you might not like the mind, but it is sound as hell.

anyway, let's look at those brand-new national poll -- go ahead, hallie. >> chris, i remember talking to you two months ago about something very similar to this. donald trump takes the attacks against him and often times he turns those exact same attacks around on whoever is hitting him. when hillary clinton and her campaign comes out and calls him unhinged, for him, he turns around and calls her crazy. this fits the pattern that he has delivered on for the past six months. >> we used to use that when we were 5 years old, so's your old man. at 5 years old. let's take a look at the brand-new national polls that tell you he's been off message. clinton leads trump by five points nationally. 47-42. this is important. that's five points. last month, trump was ahead by two points in the same poll. that's a shift of seven. in the new "new york times" poll/cbs poll there together, clinton leads by four points. last month, the two were tied. so we're seeing roughly a five-point shift.

i want to go to howard fiman here. howard, you're seeing -- even i remember -- you and i have watched this campaign. a five-point shift is a big deal. >> it is a huge deal, especially this late. and supposedly with an electorate that's mostly locked in. the last week that he's had is the worst political week i can remember any national politician ever having. i'm surprised he's even at 40%. >> that shows you -- >> -- haven't packed it up and gone home. and that's because there's a strong constituency that's going to reach out to him regardless as an agent of change. and we know who those people are. however, he has not expanded a -- he's back to the core that he was at a while ago, when he -- and he blew an opportunity this last week, starting with the debate, continuing through today, to expand that base. >> susan, if he wins the election, it's still possible, the headlines in your paper, on the front page of "usa today" are not going because he won the battle of machado, it's because

he was able to exploit a perfect storm of anger over illegal immigration, bad trade deals, and stupid wars. you can write the headline now if he wins, but he's not even writing the headline himself. and by the way, another point of politics, at this point in the campaign, the average person is paying attention. six months ago when he was saying a lot of this stuff, a very small percentage were watching. he doesn't seem to know that he has the potential to go out on that debate platform or any one of these rallies and speak to a huge audience and change a lot of minds with what he said in the beginning. he doesn't seem to know that it's the big circus now, not the little sideshow anymore. >> because the -- >> i agree with you. it is not a year for steady as she goes. >> in fact, that's the problem that hillary clinton has. this is a year for change for fresh blood, for shaking things up, but he goes too far. >> what's miss machado, alicia -- his bad treatment of somebody 20 years ago. i mean, it was bad. it's objectively bad. he treated a little person, a

person without any power, badly. you apologize and move on and say, that wasn't a good moment for me. i was under pressure like everybody else and this beauty contest stuff is a business like everybody else. there are ways you can answer it without prostrating yourself on the ground. >> and you can also say, i've changed my views on thing. people change their views on things like gay marriage, explain it and accept it. >> he's unwilling to do it, chris. he's just personally unwilling to be told. >> sometimes you have to stoop to conquer. i mentioned trump's surrogates fanned out across the cup to defend the campaign for getting a tax break of almost $1 billion in '95. their message, this is insane, trump's a genius. let's watch. >> our response is he's a genius. the reality -- >> a genius? >> absolute genius. it's a perfectly legal application of the tax code. and he would have been a fool to not take advantage of it.

>> great men have big failures and they take those failures and turn them into great results. i would rather have a genius like donald trump running this country than someone like hillary clinton. >> there's no one who's shown nor genius in their way to maneuver around the tax code, as he rightfully used the laws to do that. this is a guy who went lots of businesses went out of business in the early 1990s, he fought and clawed back to build another fortune, to create tens of thousands of more jobs and this is actually a very, very good story for donald trump. >> you know, hallie and everybody else, when you sit down and do your taxes, they're not too collected to do yourself at some point, some people use the short form and look for deductions. they really do, the husband and wife sit there and sweat it out and try to be honest. they'll take the breaks that are thrown at them, but they generally go, you know, let's be straight on this and we'll go to bed tonight feeling good about ourselves. we'll do this honestly. and those people who the that go, i'm betting screwed, i'm paying a very high percentage, i

don't want make that money if you add together payroll tax and income tax and all the other taxes. they say, i'm being honest, at least. i'm an honest guy, an honest woman. then they see mr. trump, mr. wonderful, staking tax breaks fr millions of dollars. and they say, i'm a chump. because the big shot with the big building andhe t beautiful wife showing off, that guy is bragging about, let me get this right again here, a genius. that's what he says to his wife, i guess i'm not a genius, dear, because we didn't get any money back this year after paying our taxes. i guess i should study how to be a genius. it's insane, the politics of this. forget morality. why are they putting these guys out in the road to say he's a genius when he's playing defense? >> a couple of points, because that, i am told, is coming from donald trump himself. i'm told by a source familiar with this process, with thinking process, that trump does believe that this tax issue is going to be overall net neutral for him. that it is not actually going to

hurt him with voters. because, chris, of the flip side of what you are talking about, that it is potentially relatable that somebody would look for tax loopholes and tax deductions, because a lot of those folks, mom and dad at home or whatever, filling out their w-2s, going to h&r block, looking for deductions that would help them ultimately save money. but what you're seeing from donald trump surrogates and from donald trump himself today at his two stops in colorado is the portrayal of donald trump as the ultimate success story. somebody who did maybe lose nearly $1 billion in a single year in the mid-90s, but who went on to have, in his view, success, 10, 15, 20 years later. that is how trump is hoping to frame and spin this. there is a sense, potentially, starting to bubble up close to the campaign is what if there are more tax numbers that come out, tax releases that come out. how does donald trump handle that narrative. but at the moment, trump doesn't see this as harmful to his campaign. >> i just did the math. most people would have to work

2,000 years to make this kind of money. 2,000 years! to even get near his tax break. >> former senator bill bradley of new jersey, who worked with trump on some of this stuff is, the story of donald trump is he became addicted to tax losses. he became addicted, that his business became the manipulation of the tax code are -- >> depreciation. >> not the actual construction of buildings. and what trump did was continue to use the tax breaks to then turn the business into one of branding and fame and not construction of buildings. >> it's in the paper today. >> and one thing that it's done is reinforce the question about why doesn't he release his tax returns? eight out of ten americans think he ought to, it would be the right thing to do. so it's underscored the fact that he hasn't done that. it raises questions about how well he ran that business and the general unfairness about not paying -- >> guess who gets to defend all this stuff tomorrow night? mike pence. all this stuff he doesn't know

anything about. >> the real import to me is when donald trump gets backed into a corner, he reacts with 3:00 a.m. tweet. the role story is if in the debate next week that he's in, the town hall on sunday, if he's backed into a corner, who knows what he says in front of those people in his town hall. >> town hall is -- sex life. >> we'll see if he listens. >> town halls are essentially anti-squeamish. they don't like conversations about infidelity and things like that. no matter what they think when they're in the back room, they don't like it out in public. >> it's the ultimate test of whether he can discipline himself. >> we've had a few of those tests already. >> he's failed them already. >> and he's still a billionaire. he's going to end up rich. thank you, hallie jackson, thank you, susan page. good assignment, hallie. and thank you, howard fineman. coming up, donald trump continues to struggle with women voters, whether he's interrupting his opponent or

criticizing the weight of a former miss universe, trump's got a serious gender gap. and a new report from "the washington post" says it's not going to help him with women. reaction from kellyanne conway. and more bad news for trump, the new york attorney general has served a cease and desist order against trump foundation, meaning the foundation can no longer solicit money in the state of new york. the power of parody on "saturday night live" continues. let's watch a bit. >> my microphone is broken. she broke it with obama. she and obama stole my microphone. they took my microphone to kenya and they broke it and now it's broken. [ sniffing ] do you hear that? it's picking up somebody sniffing here. i think it's her sniffs. she's been sniffing all night. testing. testing. >> alec baldwin and kate mckinnon. what a duo.

remember tina fey's sarah palin? what will alec baldwin do to donald trump? finally, my election diary for tonight, october 3rd, on the eve of the vice presidential debate. this is "hardball," the place for politics. ♪ across new york state, from long island to buffalo, from rochester to the hudson valley, from albany to utica, creative business incentives, infrastructure investment, university partnerships, and the lowest taxes in decades are creating a stronger economy and the right environment in new york state for business to thrive. let us help grow your company's tomorrow- today at business.ny.gov

well, you saw the national polls a moment ago. we've got also a big round of battleground state polling, taken since last monday's debate. for that we check the "hardball" scoreboard. according to new polling from quinnipiac, hillary clinton now has a five-point lead over donald trump in florida. that's a big development. it's clinton 46, trump, 41. next in north carolina, where the poll now has clinton up by three. it's clinton, 46, trump, 43, and johnson at 7. that's roughly where the race was in the previous poll. in pennsylvania, clinton leads by four, 45-41, again, not much change since the last quinnipiac. next to ohio, is trump still

holding his five-point lead. he was up four points in the previous poll. now to virginia, where a new poll from christopher newport university has clinton up by seven points. it's clinton, 45, trump, 41, with johnson getting up to 12. clinton's 7-point lead is in line with real clear politics average of all the polls and one point higher than last week's poll. he needs pennsylvania and he's not getting it. one more poll to tell you about, colorado, where a new monmouth poll has clinton up by 11, clinton at 49, trump at 38. recent polling in colorado has been meck aneck and neck. an earlier poll from july had clinton up by 14. it's a back and forth out there. we'll be right back. t the specialists at ford like to show off their strengths: 13 name brands. all backed by our low price tire guarantee. yeah, we're strong when it comes to tires. right now during the big tire event, get a $140 rebate by mail on four select tires.

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she can't make it 15 feet to her car. give me a break. give me a break. give me a break!

she's home resting right now. she's getting ready for her next speech, which is going to be about 15 minutes and it's going to be in two or three days. >> donald trump continued his attacks on his opponent's stamina monday night, delivering a mocking appearance of hillary clinton, who had trouble getting to her car during her bout with pneumonia. throughout this campaign, we've seen trump has responded publicly with crude or personal attacks. first, it was his comments about megyn kelly, then his remarks about carly fiorina's face, now it's his recent criticism of hillary clinton's stamina and even her look. let's watch. >> you've even said she doesn't look presidential. >> i really do believe that. >> what do you mean by that? >> well, i just don't think she has a presidential look. and, you need a presidential look. >> now an associated press report says there are claims that trump behaved similarly towards women off-camera on the set of "the apprentice," for instance, trump called for female contestants to wear shorter dresses that also showed

more cleavage. others said they only had professional experiences with trump. so there's people on both sides of the argument, largely against, of course, that's why they wrote the piece. the trump campaign denied the allegations in the statement. these outlandish, unsubstantiated and totally false claim, fabricated by publicity hungry, opportunistic, disgruntled former employees have no merit whatsoever. and "the new york times" reported that she acted passive-aggressively in order to discredit her husband's accusers. i'm joined right now is trump campaign manager, kellyanne conway. put it all together, kellyanne. >> i loved "the new york times" arguel article, i thought it was terrific. because basically it said that hillary clinton went to blame and shame the women who had

consensual sex with her husband over a number of years. if you don't remember, you can google her on 60 minutes, sitting by her husband, plaintively nodding her head in silence while he lied to the country about not having an affair with jennifer flowers, only to discover the next day there were tapes confirming that affair, audio tapes. and what was hillary clinton's first instinct? it was to blame the woman and dig up dirt on her. and i commend this "new york times" story for everybody, because it shows how hillary clinton reacts when someone has done something to wrong her. she goes right after the innocent people. and i think it's very important, because even gloria allred is reported in this article who was a convention delegate, she says, listen, it's terrible that you would try to dig up a woman's sexual past and hire a private investigator and then she goes on to say, i don't think hillary should have done that, but, hey, i like her position on abortion.

this is how she treated those women. >> she said she likes her generally. let me ask you about the associated press story that ran today attacking with all kinds of comments, not all on one site, some defending donald trump about his behavior as head of "apprentice," and his backstage behavior matching some of his rough behavior lately. what do you make of that set of charges. you think it was all a put-up job by the other side or what do you think? >> "thapprentice" was one of the most successful shows in its d day. and it generated many opportunities, including, if not especially, for women who participated. some omarosa is one of our best surrogates, most ardent supporters of druonald trumrum . she was there the first or second season. there's publicity to again, scores to settle. but i was especially excited to see the number of people that came forward and said, this was a wonderful experience for them, when they were on "the apprentice." and look, i can take you

upstairs here in trump tower chris any day of the week and introduce you to women who have worked for donald trump for years, if not decades, who have nothing but great things to say about him as a boss. >> let's talk about what we see. why was he making fun of hillary clinton physically this weekend? >> have you heard what she says about him any given day? did you watch the debate? >> why does the -- he calls her crazy, criminal, lock her up is the big slogan out there. why does he make fun of her physically? everybody knows she had pneumonia and she basically collapsed. why do you make somebody who collapsed because of a sickness. why is that funny? >> first of all, when she collapsed on 9/11 and her campaign lied about it for a number of hours, including to -- >> and that justifies -- >> no, he said nothing. he said nothing that whole day. he was completely quiet. and since then, she's done nothing but attack him. that aspirational, uplifting campaign her campaign promised, that's gone, and all they do is attack donald trump. her entire campaign is donald

trump. he talks about issues, they talk about him. if he wants to go out there and talk about her fitness for office, whether it's her record as secretary of state, her unremarkable record as senator, or her stamina, then she's welcome to do that. why is he supposed to be the victim who just rolls over every time she and her surrogates attack him. >> let's talk about this story with the taxes. "the new york times" reports that they have somebody who walked in there, apparently with the address of trump tower, i have no idea who the source was, this tipster, put it in the mailbox, this reporter of "the times," she put it in the paper, that basically trump got a $900 million tax loss in 1995, which can be spread over a number of years to his advantage. taking a tax loss like this, what does it do to his image of a guy watching out for the regular person out there? how's it match up with that image? >> donald trump is the art of the comeback. most people couldn't absorb a loss like that and reinvest it

over the years, take those losses and carry it forward, like the tax code allows you to do. no one in "the new york times" denies that it's all legal. donald trump has spent hundreds of millions of dollars in taxes over the years if federal payroll taxes, state, city, and local taxes, excise, property, real estate. and so, he's -- let's not forget he's paid hundreds of millions of dollars in taxes. i verified that number with his accountants and his lawyers, chris. on this one, very few people were betting on new york a lot, and he did. he bet on new york. the job creation, the community revitalization. and this is the american entrepreneurial story, the tax code allows you to carry forward these losses. "the new york times" in no way says that he did not pay taxes for 18 years. it says that this loss could have allowed him not to pay taxes, he may not have for any -- >> you're not talking about politics here. you're talking a defense of -- let me ask you this. he has made statements attacking americans who don't pay taxes, some people who are poor or don't make enough income to pay taxes, others who are making money, hedge fund operators,

they're not paying taxes. he has said that it's wrong. why isn't he wrong? >> he's paid hundreds -- >> no, that year, do you think he paid in '95? do you think he paid any taxes with a $1 billion tax loss? >> i think that's why you have a couple of pieces of paper from one year ago, 25 years ago. because there were years, i'm sure, where he was very profitable. >> well, we could have more, kellyanne. we could have more paper ifs he'd release them. >> and paid an awful lot in taxes. >> the only reason -- that little bit of paper you just minimized is somebody basically outed him at least on one return. the question you have to ask yourself is, if a little bit of information is bad for the guy, maybe a lot of information is better, but public isn't going to think that, unless you show the paper. they're going to think it's worse. >> sure, but chris -- as you said in your earlier segment, not everyone's going to think that's bad. a lot of people will think, this is what entrepreneurs do. they carry forward these losses,

over time, and that's what the tax code allows you to do. i also want to say, this guy has built things his whole life. buildings, projects, public works, projects, careers, opportunities. hillary clinton has destroyed -- what job has she ever created. what does she know about job creation? it's remarkable. let's give the guy his due as a successful businessman who's hired th ed thousands of people the years. he's evaluated some of them to the highest position. >> kellyanne, thank you. >> thank you, chris. >> i think he should refocus ton things that got him this far. dance with the one that brick you. >> job patriotism. >> and stupid wars! talk, it's a perfect storm. get back to that. forget machado. that's a loss. move on. there's a tax loss. move on! >> great advice. >> thanks so much. thanks so much, kellyanne. right now we've got michelle r berna bernard, columnist for "u.s. news & world report". thank you, michelle. kelly knows what she's up against here.

the behavior towards women twashds hillary as the first woman candidate, i think, is very much deleterious to get women in the 'burbs. >> to get women anywhere. women will look at all of the statements that donald trump has made, not just about hillary clinton, but about women over his lifetime and it's troubling. people will ask, who's the best candidate for women and what do women want? women do not want to elect a child in chief. >> do you think that's the image he has? >> that absolutely is the image he has. i can see his chief of staff if he were to be elected is walking in and saying, mr. trump, is your train running too high or too low? we can haven't a president that can't regulate his temper. and in terms of what kelly anne was saying about mrs. clinton and her husband's affairs in the house, i think it shows her

humanity. she was not in a position of o power over these women that donald trump has been year after year. >> you wouldn't justify in her trying to silence these women? >> no, but for any woman who has dealt with a husband and indiscretions in the past, that feel that donald trump is putting her on trial for staying in her marriage and trying to find a way to discredit women or figure out things about the women -- >> she says she's not loyal to bill clinton. i don't know what that means, unless he's talking about nafta. i don't think he's talking about nafta. >> i don't know what he means, but i think he should tread carefully. he's been married three times. women are very interested in the issues. >> you're talking about trump, has been married three times. >> trump has been married three times and two of his wives appear to be much, much younger than him. there are stories of him going out with his first wife and having dinner his father -- >> this is a troubling area. >> if you want to get into a woman's head and thinkbout what we're thinking, what we're going to the ballot box, it's not just fiscal discipline and

child care and all of the issues that men care about, women want to know that there is a person in the white house that sees the humanity in both men and women. and you have to seriously ask yourself, if a candidate looks at a woman and says, it would be a pretty picture to see you on your knees, is that somebody who cares about the humanity of women? i don't think so. >> you made it clear. i think the good guys would also agree with you. michelle bernard, thank you. up next, trump's rough patch continues as the state of new york clamps down on the trump foundation. they're going after that. this is "hardball," the place for politics. (announcer vo) when you have type 2 diabetes

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welcome back to "hardball." with only five weeks left until election day, donald trump is hoping to turn his campaign around with a swing through colorado today, but his message was steered off-course when earlier today it was reported that the office of new york attorney general, eric schneiderman, who's a democrat supporting hillary clinton, ordered the donald j. trump foundation to stop fund-raising in new york state, because it's not properly registered, specifically, cease and desist letter found that the trump foundation was engaged in solicitation or fund-raising activities in new york state in 2016 is not and was not registered. the action comes in the wake of a report by "the washington post," that found that the trump foundation lacks the certification required for charities that solicit money. when asked about the letter,

trump campaign press secretary hope hicks issued the following statement. while we remain very concerned about the political motives behind ag schneiderman's investigation, the trump foundation plans to cooperate fully with the investigation because this is an ongoing legal matter. the trump foundation will not comment further at this time. for more on this story, i'm joined by the guy who wrote the piece, davidfahrenthold. you came up with the investigation. you know what bugs me, these guys break the rules, pay the fine, and move on. now they'll have to pay a fine, apparently, right? is that what they'll face? the trump people for not registering? >> the most painful part of it for them is that they'll have to submit to financial audits of the trump foundation going back years. all the years they were supposed to be licensed to raise money and they were not, they'll have to bring in auditors to really look in the trump foupndation's books. >> why does "the washington post" have to tell new york how

to operate it? >> they were investigating him. i don't know -- they hadn't come across this part of it yet. i was talking to a law professor for another story and she said, look, look at this -- these four letters on the trump foundation's website, the new york charity -- >> here's the dirt i see. why is the foundation making payments to pam bondi, the attorney general in florida, when she decides not to investigate trump u. a little smelly? >> certainly, that's one of the things they're looking into. the trump people say it's all just an oversight. but the trump foundation made an illegal gift to pam bondi in 2013, just at the time her office was considering to launching an investigation into trump university. >> that was an accident? >> they say it was an accident. >> someone had to tell them, right? >> yeah, me. >> it's called rolling disclosure. thank you, david fahrenthold. working on that pulitzer. well, already have one. up next, the power of "snl." how can alec baldwin's impersonation of donald trump affect this race? you're watching "hardball." there he is, look at that. i thought i married an italian. my lineage was the vecchios and zuccolis. through ancestry,

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welcome back to "hardball." as we've been talking about, donald trump had a rough few days following "the new york times" story that he could have avoided nearly two decades paying taxes. the associated press story that prompted trump demeaned women, on the set of his show, "the apprentice." and today's news that the new york attorney general has ordered a cease and desist order to the donald j. trump organization after the report that the charity lacked the proper authorization to seek public donation. anyway, trump's had a rough couple of days. on "saturday night live," he was mocked by the premiere of "snl," which parodied last week's presidential debate with the stars alec baldwin playing trump. here it goes. >> this man is clearly unfit to be commander in chief. >> wrong. >> he is a bully. >> shut up. >> he started the birther movement. >> you did. >> he says climate change is a hoax invented by china.

>> it's pronounced "ji-na." >> he hasn't released his tax returns, which means he's either not that rich -- >> wrong. >> not that charitable -- >> wrong. >> or he's never paid taxes in his life. >> warmer. >> it turns out to be true, actually. let's bring in the "hardball" roundtable, eugene robinson, lauren bassett, and john fieri, a republican strategist. john, to you first on this baby. do you think, do you know inside, if this is causing any kind of freeze up of the campaign? or is it just a bad week? >> well, you know, trump has bad weeks and then he has good weeks and he has bad weeks, and you know, this is another one. the polls haven't seemed to move that much. i think there's -- >> well, five points on average. >> well, a little ebbing and flowing, but not too bad. the fact is that the hill is panicked about it. the question is, is the campaign pan panicked? and can they do anything about trump and his behavior? he has his own game plan in his own head, doing his own thing. we'll see if it works.

i think we've all been looking at the same stuff. looking at these, basically, colorado now. let's look. they're showing they're moving in hillary's direction. a monmouth university poll shows clinton with an 11-point lead out in colorado. quinnipiac shows trump leading by five in ohio. but clinton leads by 5 in florida. by 4 in pennsylvania. is up by 3 in north carolina. a bloomberg poll also has clinton up in north carolina, but only by one. so the states that are going to probably decide this, i always tell people, a firewall against trump is pennsylvania and virginia. he's not going to get 'em, and without 'em, he can't win. what do you think's going on? >> i think i would much rather be hillary clinton right now than donald trump. it's five weeks until the election and the swing voters are starting to turn against him. he had a really bad debate performance -- >> is it women? >> i think women are turning against him. suburban moms didn't appreciate the things he had about alicia machado and hillary clinton's physical appearance. and i think independent voters are turned off by the fact that he's actually not as great as a

businessman as he says he is. he lost almost $1 billion in a year -- >> but he got it back. he's got a lot -- i do not understand why people of regular income argue about a guy who's got, in the billions, in the billions -- >> but -- >> it's a lot of money! >> it's a lot of money. he's rich! >> you know, in my opinion, i actually think -- >> beyond belief rich. >> from this awful, you know, week as horrible as it is, right? that are really bad for him are, number one, the idea that he doesn't pay federal taxes. that -- i think that resonates the people. they were talking about it in my barbershop today. and when they talk about it in the barbershop, i think it resonates with people. >> people that do pay taxes. >> and as laura said, the way he treats women, i think that, you know, time after time, example after example, i think it sort of seeps in. and i think it keeps those suburban women that he needs, isn't the suburbs of philadelphia and washington, d.c. and cleveland and all -- and these places, from giving trump a chance.

>> laura, you're the one woman here, i've got to get the answer from you. there's new women and old school women. my mom was pretty old school, dad was the boss -- she made all the decisions, but he thought he was the boss. they put up a lot of cra p, the had to stay at home, raise the kids, keep the checkbook, do everything, yet they get pushed around a bit. that's the older woman, 60, 70 years old. how are they going to react? the younger woman is more professionally inclined, sees more opportunities than her parents did. give me a look at both of them. >> no matter what age the woman you are, whether you're a professional or stay-at-home mom, donald trump has said something to insult. when he was married to ivana back in the '90s, he shamed her personal appearance after she gave birth, said he wasn't attracted to her anymore. he takes miss universe and says she's gained too much weight. >> why is he free from this standard? >> why is he -- oh, exactly.

>> all i see is this gigantic tie. >> keep in mind, by the way, that women in their 60s now are boomers. they're baby boomers. they're not women who would be in their 90s or whatever -- >> you're updating me rather than -- you're crueling updating me here, gene. you're so right. women in their 70s and 80s would be old school. >> i met a woman in a doctor's office, 97 the other day. there's a lot of women nah -- >> yeah. >> and if women are fed up with the political system and want to change, they're going to vote for trump or somebody else. if they want the status quo, like the fact that hillary is the irs if female president -- >> suppose they don't like the status quo, but don't like trump's behavior? >> i think that's the big quandary they're in and trying to go both ways. and trump has to figure this out. if he doesn't, he's going to lose his election. >> let's talk about the veterans thing. explain it. he said, basically, that some people get ptsd and some don't, same denies as a battlefield. >> he was talking about veterans suicide and saying they've seen

some really terrible things and some veterans can't handle it. i think a lot of people interpreted that as a really mean comment, as him saying that -- >> joe biden did. >> right. as him saying they're week, for -- >> was that the right thing for a guy running for commander in chief to say, that some guys can't hack -- >> john? >> i think he'll still have the veterans vote. the guy he talks to. i think he's -- >> gene, last word. is this going to hurt him? because he made that shot about john mccain not being a hero. >> it's not going to help him. >> he's not a warrior. he wasn't there. >> the roundtable is sticking with us. up next, these three will tell me something i don't know. we'll be right back. this is the place for politics. . heavily into basketball. wait. data just changed... now she's into disc sports. ah, no she's not. since when? since now. she's into tai chi. she found disc sports too stressful. hold on. let me ask you this... what's she gonna like six months from now? who do we have on aerial karate?

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with msnbc for complete coverage of the vice presidential debate tomorrow night at 7:00 p.m. eastern. join me for a special edition of "hardball" in virginia. at 8:00 eastern, i'll join rachel maddow for team coverage. we'll have full post debate coverage and analysis throughout the night here on msnbc. we'll be right back. just by looking in my eyes. but what they didn't know was that i had dry, itchy eyes. i used artificial tears from the moment i woke up... ...to the moment i went to bed. so i finally decided to show my eyes some love,... ...some eyelove. eyelove means having a chat with your eye doctor about your dry eyes because if you're using artificial tears often

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right now. lendingtree®. when banks compete, you win. we're back with the hardball round table. eugene, tell me something i don't know. >> "the new york times" got the trump tax return. there was a traffic jam. people had to find it and then

go through it. nobody goes through the snail mail anymore. unfortunately, nothing was found that i know of. >> this is bilateral. >> huff post has a new tool, an election forecast machine that eats all of the national and local polls and predicted today that as of now trump has a 16% chance of winning. >> what's hillary's? 84? >> yeah, 84. good math. >> my upset special. effectively portrayed as a washington lobbyist by the young campaign and all the outside money. >> even money? >> even money. i'd give an edge. >> i love that guy's name. todd young. what a great name for a new comer. thank you eugene robinson and laura bassett. when we return, my election diary for tonight. on the eve of the vice presidential debate. you're watching "hardball," the place for politics. cure cancer million? far off. liver disease treatment. that by voting yes on prop 61 - costs. dollars pass. don't let that happen. it - because one day it might.

election diary monday, october 3rd, 2016, the campaign continues on agenda set by hillary clinton and followed by donald trump. that course is directed toward winning women, especially those more conservative women living in the suburbs. if they go for trump, the state of pennsylvania is within reach. if not, his goose is cooked. it's remarkable to see how effective hillary clinton has been the past week in undermining trump with his powerful swing electorate.

she's singly responsible for bringing forward alicia machado to the presidential conversation. because she's done it, trump has been pulled off his position. he shou he's been trying to defend himself given by the accounts given by ms. machado. trump is defending himself of being a beneficiary of a near billion dollar tax loss. so much effort getting out of taxes and why that makes him, to use his word, smart. to win, a candidate needs to focus on his or her issues. trump has a little more than a month now to get that done. thanks for watching "hardball". "all in" with chris hayes is next. tonight on "all in" --

>> who lose as billion dollars in a single year. >> i understand the tax laws better than almost everyone, which is why i am one who can truly fix them. >> the fight over trump's taxes hits the trail. >> i have brilliantly used those laws. >> tonight, as clinton moves ahead in key battleground states, why donald trump's tax trouble is just starting. plus, from the saturday night meltdown. >> give me a break. >> to sunday morning -- >> the man's a genius. >> the state of the trump campaign as their top surrogate gets ready to debate. and another decision -- >> this fall it's very tough. >> lebron james takes his talents to brooklyn. >> i was especially honored to receive the endorsement of lebron james. >> i'll ask senator sherrod brown if the k