beach erosion and a lot of concerns here. here's what has changed. it's looping it back around. there is a possibility it could make it full circle and go into next week. way too early to determine if that's going to happen. that's the latest change. >> i want to figure out if it's me or the board. >> it's you. >> for the updates, that's going to do it for this hour. mtp daily ha trks prks dal tp d. >> team trump declares victory, but could they have spoken too soon? what looked like a win for pence last night might be turning out to look different today. >> some people think i won. but i will leave that to others. >> plus the increasingly bitter relationship between the u.s. and russia.

will it play a in this campaign. and republicans go on the attack against obamacare from an unlikely source. >> you have a crazy system. >> this is mtpdaley and it starts now. good evening. i'm chuck todd here in new york city. lots to unpack in the vp debate, but first for many on the east coast, we are obsessing on tracking hurricane matthew as it threatens the southeast starting tomorrow and throughout the weekend. right now hurricane matthew is a strong category three storm and it could end up strengthening back to a category four as it hits warmer water when it moves north of cuba. matthew left a path of destruction through the caribbean. 25 deaths are being blamed on the storm. they fear that number could rise

when the storm passes over the islands. governor rick scott said they are preparing for the worst. the watches and the warnings extend the length of the atlantic coast on florida's east coast. let's go to dylan drier for the latest track for us. walk us through where things are where you feel good about the next 42 to 72 hours. >> 72 and over the next 48 hours, it will move through the bahamas and approach the east central coast of florida. we got to 5:00 and wins are still at 120 miles per hour and it is moving through the bahamas. we have the hurricane warnings throughout the bahamas and east central florida. hurricane conditions are expected within the next 36 hours. just to the north of that, we are looking at the possibility of hurricane conditions. that's why the watch is in effect within the next 48 hours. here's what we know. it is expected to go back up to a category four storm, but we

are looking at a 10 mile per hour difference much the difference between 120 and 130 miles per hour. either way it's a very strong storm. look at how close it gets to melbourne, florida. we are looking at it to hug the coastline. up to seven inches of rain and flooding and beach erosion. watch what happens here sunday and beyond. the national hurricane center is wrapping it back around. some models indicating it could do a loop and has significant impact as we go into next week. very bizarre, but we are keeping an eye on it. >> we think the forecasters have happened a couple of times. why in this case could this happen? are there multiple fronts? what could make the hurricane where there is a strong front sitting on it and it could make it do a u-turn? >> it sounds bizarre to say, if

you think about it up through here, there is a blocking pattern and if that pattern is stuck in place, everything is blocked. the storm say it wants to go like this at some point, it was looking like it could do. it is blocked. it has to go back around. i don't think it will be as strong. if it goes back around, it is steering it in that direction. it has nowhere else to go. >> how far south do they think it could loop? they are back down to the south or looking at something where it threatens more of the central part of the coast? >> it was looking like they could loop down to the bahamas and back up. now it is meandering back out to sea. that's taking us into the beginning and middle of next week and there is a lot of uncertainty, but i want to show you why it's making this crazy loop here. >> fascinating and the eye may never hit the continental united states. >> it may not, but it will come

close and getting closer and closer at 10 to 20 miles out to the west and we could talk about landfall and a major hurricane in floaterida. >> let's go to the echxilating fallout from the vp debate and what could be a short victory for pence and the trump campaign. they are still popping over at trump tower. trump declared pence's performance a victory of trumpian proportions. >> he was phenomenal. he was cool and smart. i would argue that mike had the single most decisive victory in the history of vice presidential debates. i believe that. >> all right. let's do the reality check. pence was depth and smooth, but he was a walking contradiction. he broke with trump on key issues and he seemeded to do his

best to fudge the trump record when necessary. it could turn a short-term victory into a headache for the top of the ticket into sunday. here are a few examples and one we will hear a lot about on sunday. russia and putin. >> donald trump and mike pence said he's a great leader. >> no, we haven't. >> pence said vladimir putin is the better leader. >> that is inaccurate. >> both pence and trump have in fact made those comments with one word change. take a listen. >> it's inarguably that vladimir putin has been a stronger leader than barack obama has been in this country. >> i always said he is very much of a leader. essential in that system he is far more of a leader than our president has been a leader. >> what pence was saying he

didn't use the word better, he used the word stronger. he distanced himself from trump's position from nonaggression when it comes to putin. >> the small and bullying leader of russia. if russia chooses to be involved and continues to be involved in this barbaric attack in aleppo, the united states of america should be prepared to use force to strike military targets of the assad regime. >> striking assad. a russian ally. that's the exact opposite of trump's recent pledge to stay out of syria. take a listen. >> would you stay out of syria? >> i would stay out of syria and not fight for assad. i thought that was a whole thing. >> you wouldn't go into syria. >> but i would go after isis. >> at times pence throws trump under the bus a bit, particularly for the gaffe that

women should be punished for having an abortion. >> donald trump and i would never support legislation that punished women who made the heart breaking choice to end a pregnancy. >> then why did he say that? >> she not a polished politician like you and hillary clinton and -- >> i would admit that. >> pence's last comment said things don't come out the way trump means them. that's what he said. the campaign is trying to prep pence on the contra dixz. here's a few more. >> more nations should get nuclear weapons. >> he never said that. >> wouldn't you rather have japan have nuclear weapons. >> he said keep them out if they are muslim. mike pence put a program in place. >> a total and complete shut down of muslims.

>> he is asking everyone to vote for someone he cannot defend. >> the mission was target trump and protect clinton even if he had to lose a bit of his own political dignity doing it while pence appeared to deflect trump. trump and pence's performances couldn't have been more different. when trump takes the stage again, it will policy which was the aberration. former rnc chair. give me your assessment. >> i thought mike pence did a fantastic job in the sense that he walked a tight rope and figured out when to defend and when to deflect. to avoid that rabbit hole that tim kaine put into. i gave them kudos to articulate a plan, policy, or vision when you are the governor of your own

state. but two, given the difference and the difficulties of a donald trump policy. >> why should he be praised for walking this tight rope? mike pence is not at the top of the ticket. if we were talking about a debate performance and running for the senate which you said yeah, she is doing a good job finding a way to support trump when she can, she is on the ballot on her. is it mike pence's job to defend the top of the ticket? i get that. isn't that a failure? >> he did defend it when it was reasonable and appropriate to do it. they would call it less damage and he avoided that when he had to. you can imagine the rabbit hole on the whole issue with women, given the way that tim kaine was nipping at his heels. as someone who has done the

debates, i'm not going to play that game. i'm going to take it in a different direction to avoid the traps. he showed how seasoned he was by holding a steady pace. >> i get that, but kaine was relentless. i get that it may turn some people off, but boy, did he get a lot of information out there and he did create moments where pence in hindsight you are looking at it going why did they leave all of that unresponded to? >> i can guarantee you that kaine will point out that people stop listeni to tim kaine. he was that annoying. i watched the twitter feeds from democrats and republicans and independents. the way he approached it, if he brought his level down and kept pace with pence the way pence was responding, it would have been much more effective. people would have heard the entire thought. when you interrupt the way he

did, it takes people out and interacts people from what you are saying. they are reinforceing it with commercials and that may speak more to your point, but i don't know how much that is going to resonate with folks after the fact. >> he was basically trying to spin this and accept the premises that pence won the debate, but with an asterisk. >> who won the debate last night? >> i knowledge that donald trump lost. pence was smooth and seemed likeable, but the vice president's job is to go in and defend the top of the ticket. mike pence looked more like he was looking at 2020 than 2016. >> we have been evaluating pence. i melt like mike pence did mike pence a lot of good. let's evaluate them from the perspective of trump. was last night's success?

>> partly. donald trump would want a more vociferous defense and more up front and more push back. particularly on the more sensitive areas like women and the muslim ban, etc. taxes. if he will release them, when his lawyers tell him. he has to understand a couple of things. that's not his running mate. there has to be a meeting of the minds in terms of what your expectation is going to be and how far this guy will be. >> you have tim kaine who will say i'm going to risk hurting my own political image to do the work that the clinton campaign wants me to do. >> they'll do it when they want you to win. >> mike pence didn't have that attitude. >> i don't think the occasion called for it. there is no doubt that kaine had the upper hand going into this.

>> let's go to the other side and another former party chair. governor rendell, how are you doing? do you share the general consensus that pence won the 90 minutes in particular and then we can talk about the debate. >> he was very good on the plan to defeat isis and laid it out and good on the clinton economic plan, but pence clearly won on style points. michael left out one factor. he said pence supported trump and not to defend him and figured out when to lie. he lied at least three or four times about basic things. like did donald trump say it was good for other countries to get

nuclear weaponry. the clip showed that mike pence is lying. he lied consistently on things that tim kaine properly said donald trump said and mike pence denied it. that's going to make for great commercials. mike pence saying this and donald trump saying that. >> the style you heard michael steel make the claim that he thought that kaine no matter how effective he was, did he wear the viewer down where they stopped listening? let me show you what the rnc is putting out against kaine. >> you had a heavy handed approach. >> you said that. >> thank you, senator. >> i praised vladimir putin as a great leader. >> a billion dollars a year. >> let me talk about this. now i can wait. >> you see the point they made. tim kaine was extraordinarily

aggressive. was he too aggressive? >> a little bit. i think particularly at the beginning. he may have been too hyper. mike pence interrupted the moderator as much if not more. tim kaine had a job to do and he did the job and did it fairly well by focusing on attention on donald trump and to tell falsehoods. he may have lost the night, but won the war. i know they will be better than ever before. on the tax hit, it seems to me that the clinton campaign believes that tax hit is a game changer with the voters.

with trump, they are not even sensitive to that stuff. after learning they can pay no taxes for 18 years, they can say i'm not going to vote now. the majority of trump voters will like his explanation and he took total advantage of what the law says, but i think there will be some pauling off. not a great deal, but some.

>> former governor ed rendell. thanks for coming on. >> coming up, going back to the tax issue. clinton campaign believes they can make these charges stick and wound trump. what are they seeing that the republicans are not seeing? blood pressure the time is long overdue... pharmaceutical industry. need... outrageous profits. important step forward. payers of california - america. passes - ballot. whether the

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and always working to be better. >> why won't he release his tax return? >> he said i will absolutely release our taxes. >> he will support our veterans. >> here must give the tax returns to show he is qualified to be president and he is breaking his promise. richard nixon released tax returns. when hillary said you haven't been paying taxes he said that makes me smart. he did it after many questions that had nothing to do with taxes. according to the polling, they

don't see it as if they were concern and the way they were with romney. thank you all. certainly the voters don't care in the same way that the same voters four years ago they did care about romney. >> i don't think they did care. that seemed political and businesslike. they should care because he promised to release his tax returns and reneged on that.

he lost money and took advantage of those he believes will operate. it is not something that trump managed to carve out. it is standard that you don't pay taxes when you lose money and you can spread your losses. i don't think it will reason ead because i don't think it's a huge story. >> it is interesting what you focused on and that was it. you were more intrigued by the billion dollars in losses. are they focused on the wrong thing. he's a genius that he will use the standard tool to avoid taxes. they seem to change their

message. he fell into the economy and that was terrible at the time. that was out of his control, but he was able to use the tax laws and rebuild and come back stronger than ever. that seemed to be a more effective message. >> it was interesting and their way of saying hey, you are feeling down and he was down too. >> that's not going to work, but i don't think this is a game changer or enormous in and of itself. it is negative for trump in the sense that it bolsters the picture we have of trump and that he is a film flam man and he may not be as wealthy as he claims. in that sense it's helpful to the clintons and people are crazed over the tax issue or not, i wonder.

are there groups of others going in? stick it to the irs? >> trump is evidenced in favor of that proposition. he is a rich guy. he made a lot of money before he lost this money and didn't pay taxes. the democrats are trying to say look, you average joe, you pay taxes every year and he was living this lifestyle and didn't pay taxes and that's unfair. i don't think it's going to stick because i think people are smart enough to understand that businesses have cycles. >> there is no evidence. we look at the times story and there is no evidence that trump made all this money before he took this loss. >> that's the part we don't know. >> that will justify near a billion loss. we don't know.

>> i think the clinton campaign is focused on the long thing and have not focused on how did you lose? >> and the fact that it's his personal taxes. one thing for the huge corporation to take the loss. how did they lose that personally. he made it sound as though it is business. he said i have a responsibility to investors. >> you guys are sticking around. we are gearing up around 2:00 and have all day coverage this sunday leading up to the debate in st. louis. the great thing to do when there is an advertisement in football games, you come for a debate pregame. the trump campaign gets a boost from someone close to hillary clinton. stay tuned.

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got a lot more to digest including chatter about health care. cnbc market wrap. >> thanks, chuck. the dow closing up 112 and the s&p gaining nine and the nasdaq up by 26. safety regulators are investigating points that side air bags on some nissan versa small cars with inflate if the doors are shut too hard. they cover about 155,000 cars from the 2012 model year. the nation's largest shopping mall will be closed on thanksgiving day this year for the first time since 2012. mall of america in minnesota

said they wan to offer workers time off with their families. that's it from cnbc, first in business worldwide.

they say donald trump loves putin. i don't love. i don't hate. we will see how it works. >> i can say this. we got along with russia and russia went out with us and knocked the hell out of isis, that's okay with me, folks. >> you just heard trump's reaction to accusations that he is too cozy with vladimir putin. they sparred over russian relations in the debate last night and it's fraught. ceasefire talks have collapsed after an aggressiving campaign in aleppo civilian zone. john kerry spoke with the foreign minster and expressed concerns. the deteriorating relationship

caused him to pull out of part of a treaty that caused both to dispose of their stockpile that is more of a symbolic move. nothing truly that threatening on that front, but the u.s. said they haven't even received official notification of russia's suspension there yet. add in the hacking and the flight of planes too close to ships and the assault on personnel and this is all no doubt something that the next president is going to have to deal with big time. the senior vice president with the foreign and defense policy. first the former ambassador to russia and msnbc contributor. danielle, i want to start with you. i have to say after hearing mike pence last night and his descriptions of vladamir putin, i did not expect donald trump to do what he did today with putin and go ahead and imply that he is going to have a softer relationship with him.

>> well, i don't want to be in the position of defending donald trump, but what trump said is what is the policy of the united states which is if we can have a better relationship with russia and do the right thing together in syria, we should do the right thing. i think the problem is that donald trump thinks he is going to bend putin to his well where barack obama and john kerry can't. good luck with that. i don't think it's true, but i don't think it's a great divergence from where we are now. what trump is sayin is the policy that president obama tried to pursue it. correct? >> depends on what we are talking about in the early years. when i worked in the government with the white house, we had a policy of working with the president and we got a lot of things done.

putin came back, paranoid as ever. he blamed us for that and blamed me personally for that. the ability to work with him faded quickly. years and not just in the last week. it's incumbent and how would he make putin do what he wants. you have to have a strategy to achieve the end and can't talk about great objectives. let's have democracy in russia. wouldn't had be great if putin moves towards democracy. that's a naive statement. >> let's move to what can be done now and what should the obama administration do now before january 20th and i will start with you. i know you are probably more

sympathetic to this than danielle on what the obama administration has been doing. their policies on what to do in aleppo is handed off to the next president. should he wait that long? >> i do believe that the obama administration including when i was still in the government chased the russians too long with respect to syria. they fundamentally, putin always had a different objective. his objective was to preserve his guide in syria and our objective was a ceasefire and a political settlement and no amounts of negotiations, no amounts of talks or phone calls has changed that dynamic for the last three years. i think we now have greater consensus and i wish we would have gotten here sooner. i don't see a lot of good options at this point and a way to stop the horror that is happening in aleppo.

it reminds me of what mr. putin did and the only other strategy is to think about ways to help the opposition in other places. you will never have a negotiation without either one side winning or a stalemate. we don't have either of the two situations right now. >> what would you like to see the administration do now? we can go backwards, but what would you hope they can do now d essentially the next four months, seth up or do you wait for the next administration? >> the administration is sitting this one out and wants to kick the syrian nightmare down the road and i think they basically played putin unbelievably poorly. what would i like us to do now? i would like them to have done what we should have done many years ago. that's to relegate putin to where he is. a dictator who is exercising

power he doesn't have. i would like to see us do more to create a safe zone in syria and create the humanitarian corridor to allow them to escape and i would like a no-fly zone and the things that people have been talking about and haven't done. >> it does sound like i love john kerry would love to see a no-fly zone over aleppo and some would support that. my guess is former secretary of state hillary clinton. do you think he moved on the issue? >> kerry or president obama? >> i think i know where secretary kerry is. i'm talking about president obama. >> i don't think he has. i don't know for sure. i would hope that the continued failure of the current policy and just the horror of what we are seeing in aleppo might cause a reconsideration. i don't think you will ever see a no-fly zone over aleppo.

those are russian planes. the administration has been concerned about shooting down russian planes. there are other places that one could consider and other means that one could do it without having americans be involved. whether or not they are willing to consider that with a few months left, i don't know. >> that's what it seems to be. always good to have you guys on. appreciate it. thank you. up next, why i'm upset with something americans no longer trust. stay tuned. healthier. it begins from the second we're born. because, healthier doesn't happen all by itself. it needs to be earned everyay. using wellness to keep away illness. and believing a single life can be made better by millions of others. as a health services and innovation company optum powers modern healthcare by connecting every part of it. so while the world keeps searching for healthier we're here to make healthier happen.

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>> now it's happening in south america and the government of columbia negotiated a peace deal from the revolutionary group. the dole is to end the longest running war in the western hemisphere. 50 years of fighting. it took four years of negotiations and the fighters lay down their arms and the un monitors set to seal the accord. all the principals are celebrating. they put the final agreement in the vote to leave no room for conflict. 52 years of work came down to a

yes or no. the voters said no. in many ways, it's columbia in the moment. they don't want to be told what to do. they don't trust the elite and the deals they cut and the leaders have pulled them out. that anger with the status quo fed the rise of outsider politics and it's easier to communicate outside of the opinions in every country in the world. the danger that to be against something doesn't leave solutions for anything. in the case of columbia, it may have came at the price of lasting peace. we will be back in a moment with something even bill clinton calls the craziest thing. is ia o never stops being a student? is it a caregiver determined to take care of her own? or is it a lifetime of work that blazes the path to your passions? your personal success takes a financial partner

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health care and 60 hours a week. >> we're talked about this yesterday. president clinton trying to walk it back a bit, but didn't walk it all back and republicans greefully seething on his words. they leak down the ballot where obamacare is more of a central issue in the presidential race. three senators released this and clinton calling obamacare a system with that. there is more to come and expect ads in indiana. not to be confused with our friend. >> bob. what did you make of bill clinton's comments?

>> what is he doing? the first thing i thought about, it goes all the way back to 2008. it teams like he has this deep and unending dislike for barack obama. >> i really believed that. maybe he can rationalize it in some way that this is a way to bolster her and prevent her from taking incoming on obamacare, but it's not helpful because she has to defend obamacare and say we need to fix it. she has to defend it. >> the fact is, what bill clinton articulated is basically what the headlines have been on obamacare. premiums are going up for the people in the middle who don't make too much to get any of the benefits. >> he likes to get into it.

he wants to get to the bottom of it and lose track of the politics around question that been said by many democrats that obamacare needs to be fixed. this isn't the first time. for him to use the term crazy and to bring it up without anybody asking about it is bizarre. >> you still can't believe what you heard. >> he sounded like me. >> the reason it is so damaging is threefold. firstly, he said crazy which is an inflammatory word. secondly, he is right and what he said is true and comprehensible to most people listening. and tonight way to get out of it is to say i'm in favor of a single payer or a public option. the problem is that wouldn't do the business owners and middle class people too many favors. you have to raise taxes pretty drastically for a single payer system. so he was making an argument for

the right. >> is it possible that this group of voters, that are most concerned about how obamacare is impacting their lives, they're also, they may not be big trump fans but they probably want to vote republican. they may say to themselves, at least bill clinton wants to change obamacare. does that oddly help hillary a tad? >> i don't think it helps her. i think it mitigates the damage. >> i think republicans have had a long time, their standard bearer is donald trump. and every single criticism of the democrats can be added to the phrase, but we nominated donald trump. and i think hillary is not going to benefit from this in any way. will people trust trump to fix it? i don't know. >> here's where it won't help hillary. you won't get enough of those voters to come over the hillary to make a difference. what she really needs to do is

get out her base shelf needs obama behind her. i don't think this hurts a lot but it doesn't help. >> i'll tell you where it hurts her. if she is president of the united states and there's a republican senate. i'll start with one campaign that i think this imfacts most. evan baye. he is the one challenge here has to defend his obamacare vote. >> i don't disagree with you. i want to posit that obama won't be in the elections. that people are going out making really tough ads. you're not seeing it. it is not there. that's not saying that it doesn't need to be fixed and it should come to the next president to repair. is it a huge political issue the way it was in 2014, 2012? no. >> that gets to, though, bill clinton. he has not been an asset to her. let's talk about, has he been an asset? >> not for a long time. if you want to delve into the psychological aspects of it, i

wonder if he is not am i have about lent about hillary. >> wow! >> the only time we ever hear about bill clinton is when he makes a gaffe. he is out there every day talking to audiences, not getting a lot of news coverage and he is doing just fine. we only hear about him when he makes a gaffe. >> he is so smart, so savvy politically. i think pits weird when he makes these bad moves, gaffes or whatever you want to call them. >> i think he's lost some of it. he was the most talented politician of his generation. i'm not sure that he is. i've been watching political campaigns, the recall in colorado, for example, where he's been wheeled in at the last minute and has done nothing. that's again case for a long time. he was really an asset. >> i guess when we talk about these working class white voters, the last time a democrat had a connection to him was bill clinton. that's why i'm curious to see, does bill clinton have any magic

left if western pennsylvania? any magic left, it will be a western carolina which is just like parts of kentucky and things like that. it doesn't look like he does. >> we don't know that. the only time we ever see him doing do have anything is when he messes up. when he is not messing up, he has good audiences. they're older audiences. he is not at the top of his game. i agree. but he does job for the most part with the audiences he is speaking to except when he gaffes and then it is huge. >> that could be true. isn't there a sense in which he can be a liability? much, they think he was the guy who imprisoned these minorities. black lives matter is extremely critical of him. and i wonder whether it is a wash. >> i think bill clinton's time has come and gone. the clinton-gore era was a quarter of a century ago, the

beginning of it. it is a different generation. >> i had hair. >> we'll be back with one more story you might have missed. especially if you were tune in the to last night's debate. sureor put themhave ston a rack.e tires. but the specialists at ford like to show off their strengths: 13 name brands. all backed by our low price tire guarantee.

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in case you missed it. the spin room last night was electric. not the spin room in farmville,

virginia, at the vice presidential debate. it was the 106 miles to the north in toronto. after a manager's move the led to heart ache and anger. it is not much of a debate. for those of hue are not baseball fans. the jays and the orioles were tied in extr innings. it was a winner take all game. the orioles have the best relief pitcher in the game. zach briton. he hasn't given up a run since may. but the manager decided to wait and wait and wait to use zach until the orioles got a lead. a lead that they never got. the last reliever threw just five pitches. the last one, a season ending home run. afterwards, the spin began. the orioles other pitchers are great. they've success against toronto. you have to wait to put in your west reliever. you play by the book. at one point he said except for zach briton, the pitcher he put in was the orioles' best. exempt for zach briton.

by midnight, show walter who is universally recognized as a terrific manager and well liked probably wished he had been spinning for either tim kaine or mike pence, as it stands he gets to have his entire winter to think about last night. it is a remind per managers and football coaches. they're just like politicians too. they get some bad days and to have spin. that's all tonight. "with all due" starts right now. with all due respect to mike pence, last night he seemed to have forgotten is to keep the main thing the main thing. >> let me be clear on this russian thing. let me go to this iran thing. i appreciate this iran thing. >> this whole prudent thing. >> you whipp eped out that mexi thing again. >> if