hurricane. the kennedy space center closed at noon today. the storm expected to hit there at some time tomorrow night or tomorrow morning. the worst stopper to hit that space center since 1962 when it was built. our special coverage ends here. i'm ari melber. thank you for watching. "hardball" is live, next. >> good evening, i'm chris matthews in washington. donald trump is holding a town hall this hour in washington in preparation for sunday's huge debate, a debate many people believe he needs to one and win big. wehle get to all the day in politics, but first an update on hurricane matthew, which is barreling towards the florida coast tonight. bringing with it 140-mile-an-hour winds and the threat of what could be an historic devastation. matthew intensified to a category 4 storm and is expected to make landfall tonight or early tomorrow morning. florida, as well as georgia and the carolinas are under a state of emergency. millions have been ordered to

evacuate coastal areas and residents are bracing for the worst. experts are saying that matthew could prove to be the strongest storm on record to ever strike the east central region of florida, threatening lives and of course, costing billions of dollars in storm-related damage, potentially. president obama today ordered fema to mobilize disaster relief efforts, and governor rick scott of florida, this morning, issued a dire warning to those still remaining in the evacuation zones. here's the governor. >> don't take a chance. a small movement could mean a lot. that's why we're preparing for a direct hit. if you need to evacuate and if you haven't, evacuate. this storm will kill you. time is running out. >> well, for more on the path of hurricane matthew, let's check in with nbc meteorologist bill karins. he's at the weather center tonight. bill, give us an update what it looks like the next couple of hours. >> thanks, chris. we're in the critical period now, where the slightest little

jog or wiggle is going to mean destruction for one city and maybe not so much destruction for another city. already watching the forecast path, and where the direction it's heading up the coast. the forecast has improved over the last couple of hours, in the miami area. you'll probably barely even going to see tropical storm force winds. great news for you. even ft. lauderdale, maybe some tropical storm force winds. the storm surge will be well to the north. a glancing blow for you, it appears. i can't give you the all-clear in west palm beach. you still have a chance of going through the outer eye wall of the storm. here's the center. that's the eye. that is where we have the 140-mile-per-hour winds. gusts could even be higher than that. this is what you want to eliminate. this will be catastrophic, where this comes onshore later on tonight. and then we have what we call this outer eye wall, that has developed. and this is where the hurricane-force winds are. so once you get into that, that's when the trees go down, we start to get some roof damage, and that's also problematic, once it gets to the coast. that is only about three to four hours away from the west palm beach area. that's when we'll start hearing about the power outages, power surges, transformers blowing up in the sky.

here's the forecast path. 2:00 a.m., we're still offshore. and then during the night, we rake the coastline near the space coast, maybe a landfall, maybe not right near cape canaveral. here's the key. if the storm is going to be historic, likely it's going to be because of two things. one, the wind damage with the 140-mile-per-hour winds, cat 4, and the storm surge. that's typically what kills the most people and does the most damage to businesses, hotels, houses all along the shore. west palm beach southward, we're really not concerned with any storm surge there at all. once we get to vero beach, cocoa beach into melbourne, this is where we're going to be anywhere in the 5 to 7-foot range. and the really nasty stuff, chris, this is going to be occurring late tonight into tomorrow, is going to be from daytona beach, palm coast, jacksonville, brunswick, to savannah. this is where we could get up to a 10-foot storm surge in isolated areas. that's 10 feet of where the water levels normally are, add 10 feet to that. that's where the destruction will come in. >> thanks for that report in the

weather center. well get to politics in a minute. but one more report, nbc's miguel almaguer is with us from west palm beach, which is bracing right now for a possible direct hit. what's it look like down there? i can't tell from watching. >> reporter: the weather conditions have rapidly changed over the last two or three hours. when we first got here this morning, we had light breeze and a pretty steady wind. that developed into a pounding wind, and we got buckets of rain that's been intermittent. we just got hit with a round a short time ago. those bands are certainly moving their way through this area. let me show you what the scene looks like out here. this is ocean street, one of the most popular areas in all of west palm beach. we have had police completely shut down in area. my photographer, ab rahal, will show you down the street ear,s the completely deserted. for the last couple of hours, we have seen police cruisers come unand down this street ordering everyone in this area to leave. the media has been given special access here. the police tell us we will be safe in this area for a few more hours. and later on this evening, we'll

be forced to evacuate. i want to show you across the street here, this is some of the waves here that have been building over the last couple of hours. as bill mentioned, the storm surge isn't necessarily a major problem here, but they are going to expect other issues, like wind speed to be a major problem tonight. chris, everyone here is bracing for that next band that may hit us. and of course, overnight, even more extreme weather that's coming our way. back to you, chris. >> miguel, thanks so much. miguel almaguer in west palm, where we're continuing to watch hurricane matthew bear down on florida, on the coast down there. we'll keep the radar map on the screen there. we'll be back to our reporters on the ground there momentarily. by the way, the second half of this hour, we'll really get into this storm. but right now in new hampshire, donald trump is holding what his campaign is calling a town hall event, a practice run, a dry run, you might call it, before sunday's town hall style debate with hillary clinton, the real thing. the difference tonight, the people in trump's town hall are all invited guest, it's an

exclusive party, which likely means friendly questions. this is a huge report, that sunday's debate, the one upcoming on sunday could be a do or die moment for the trump campaign. if trump stumbles, congressional candidates might openly abandon him. public polls show trump losing ground around the country in all the key states. according to the times' private polling by both parties show a precipitous drop in his support in the last couple of days, especially among independent voters, moderate republicans, and of course, women. and today, 30 republican former members of congress announced their opposition to trump. they wrote, quote, sadly our party's nominee this year is a man who makes a mockery of the principles and values we have cherished and which we sought to represent in congress. joining me right now, "the huffington post," howard fineman, april ryan, and "the washington post'" robert costa. robert, let's get to this thing. the way we were looking at this coming up debate on sunday is, well, the bar is so low after the disastrous performance in the first debate. but now i'm getting from your

reporting and others that trump has to win. he has to be a whiz on sunday, because he has to turn things around the from what looks like right now a sinking ship. >> the bar is very high on sunday. are they really going to have strong, across-the-board performances this november 8th? trump is not the kind of guy, based on his friends and associates who wants to even be having a mock debate or a dry run. but he feels compelled to do so tonight in new hampshire. >> what kind of a bar do you put for him? make a call here. does he have to clearly win -- let's put it this way. does he have to do at least as well as his running mate did on tuesday, and walk away known to be by all quarters, including podesta, the chairman of the clinton campaign, he had the poise, he was likable, basically, he won. does he have to do that well? >> my sources tell me trump has been on the phone with governor pence, trying to talk through pence's own debate performance, what could he learn -- >> you mean, acting like a grown-

grown-up? >> not looking at your watch, not being fidgety. it's 90 minutes, it's intense, it's person to person. >> howard? >> well -- >> where's your bar? >> it has to be a pence-like victory. >> pensive. >> you and i took a road trip to the t in pennsylvania, trump territory. and we spoke to the republican chairman of adams county up there around gettysburg. this is a woman who's solid for trump. and she told us in no uncertain terms, he's got to do a much, much better job this time. he's got to hit it out of the park this time in a way he didn't -- >> i'm looking at this, april -- >> this is a trump supporter. >> what i'm looking at is what matters. i thought trump had a good grab for florida, ohio, north carolina. he looks like he's losing those three, let alone not even winning pennsylvania, not even winning the states like virginia. he's not even close to having a good shot at this point. so he has to do something that's, wow, it seems to me. you agree? >> yeah, most definitely. he thought the wow was

attracting his supporters, those people who watched him on "the apprentice" saying "you're fired." he was coming up with one-liners. from what i'm told, when he was in debate prep for this first debate, it was a lot of one-liners. he paid a lot of people a lot of money to come up with these. and it did not work. >> did he use them? >> whether he used them or not, it did not work. the bottom line is for him to go up against hillary clinton and for his number two to do much better than him, the bar has got to come up much higher. >> the chairman we talked to, the republican chairman in the "t" of pennsylvania, trump territory, said he's got to make his substantiative points and move on. in other words, he's got to be disciplined. . and in terms of trump, that is a high bar. >> and it cannot be personal. it cannot go personal. he's got to hit the issues. >> especially in front of a crowd. >> but hillary clinton pb the former secretary of state, is

not going to let him have a clear field to do what he needs to do. she's going to be every stepf the way sunday night screwing him up, reminding hip of alicia machado, throwing in those things that drive him nuts. it's not the whole performance, not a must-wow in a general sense, those wow -- >> pence can't do that. pence is very good, with i think, looking at it over the religious right. he talks about, you know, religious -- he talks religiously about prayer and how he's praying for success. it's very good, i think, in the middle of the country, but i don't think that works with suburbanites. they think, keep religious out of politics. they don't even like that religious tone. it's secular, it's jobs, it's foreign policy, it's war, it's hard stuff, they don't want to get too mystical about it. >> and a lot of republicans say the only chance trump has is to play in nontraditional areas, like different districts in maine and do well in certain parts of new england and pennsylvania. >> you're from bucks county? >> i am. >> is as hallie jackson, your classmate. that is, to me, is becoming to look like ground zero. can he get the kind of woman who

in the old days when i was -- took her husband to the train in the morning, picked him up at night, went to new york once in a while, read the papers, knew what was going on. is that woman still out there? she may be in her 60s or 70s now or older, but they're out there voting. >> i always say, they're intrigued by trump. i was up in buck county. these are the kind of women and men who are pro-choice, they're pro-choice moderate. both parties, they're looking maybe for an excuse to vote for trump, but as long as he continues to have incendiary language on women and other issues, there's a bar. >> well, let's get to the heart of this, april and howard. despite days of teasing he might bring up bill clinton's past scandals like sex stuff at the next debate, today trump seemed to rule that out. he told the "new york post" -- there's a reliable source -- i want to win this election on my policies for the future, not on bill clinton's past, jobs, trade, ending illegal immigration, veteran care, and strengthening our military is what i really want to be -- well, that's what he should be talking about! >> that's what the county chair, the republican county chair told him --

>> i should say "the post" is a good source for him. >> he said, he's got to stick to his substantiative topics. and even though she's died in the wool for trump, she said, we're lacking civility in politics. remember when she said that? we have no civility in politics. i think a lot of those suburban women, they're going to vote partly on the basis of who comes off as a decent person. >> but she originally said, that's why she was for trump. which doesn't make any sense for me. >> what makes sense to me is her yearning for civility somewhere. >> it doesn't make sense for donald trump to get up there and talk things that basically put his foot in his mouth and brought his numbers down. talking about the fact that he has taken advantage of the housing crisis and made money off of people's pain. and also talking about -- i mean, if we have to pay taxes, talking about the fact that he has not paid taxes for 20 years, after he lost $916 million. the american public feel what they feel, and know what they know. >> yesterday, trump said many of his past comments about women's looks were done, catch this, for

the purpose of entertainment. i don't know how this covers him at all, but let's watch. >> do you understand the concern from parents of younger girls that some of the wording that you've used to talk about attractiveness or unattractiveness might make it more difficult for girls who are struggling with their body image and the pressure to be model-perfect. >> sure, i do. and a lot of this is done in the entertainment business, i'm being interviewed for "apprentice" long before i ever thought in terms of running for office. but a lot of that was done for the purpose of entertainment, and, you know, when people hear it and hear -- there's nobody -- i can tell you this, there's nobody, nobody that has more respect for women than i do. >> are you trying to tone it down now? not use those -- >> well, it's not a question of trying, it's very easy. but you know, you're in the entertainment business, you're doing "the apprentice," you have one of the top shows on television, and you say things differently for a reason. >> right. >> now it's a much different world. >> you know, i've always thought about one phrase that i think is true. you only get one reputation in life.

and here's a guy trying to shake his whole reputation of being a showbiz guy, an act, and now he's saying, that was just an act, that was just for showbiz. >> this is not an act. i've covered three american presidents for 20 years, january. what you say is what you mean. you can't take it back. this is not entertainment. this is real life. this is real-life drama. people are affected. women are the key voting bloc for this election and any election -- >> he wasn't ready for that. >> he wasn't ready. >> miss piggy -- >> he's not ready for prime-time. for him to talk about a woman -- again, it goes back to the trophy look. his daughter is beautiful. his wife is beautiful. everyone out here is not glamorous. everyone -- there are people who work every day, who fight hard every day, how many of us have not had weight issues? i still deal with it. >> you know what i thought what was interesting, howard, how effective, like, this wouldn't have happened ten years ago. hillary does this ad, i've been watching it on her network, it's so good. they have young, you know, regular-looking people, good-looking people, but they're

not movie stars, a girl, a thin girl, and then they have the "flat-chested comment," and someone who's a bit overweight and they had the weight comment. they're directly targeting the very basic kind of people who would be offended by these things said by trump. >> we saw evidence of that today when we went to gettysburg college. we had one young woman who was very emotional on this topic. was she a huge hillary fan, per se? not necessarily. is she driven to hillary because of her fear and loathing of donald trump and his comments about women, including women who have weight issues? absolutely. >> she was great. she was -- i said, you've got to run for office. i meant it to her. because she's the kind of person, a regular person, obviously, smart and political, wouldn't be in the room with us today at gettysburg college if she wasn't one of the top students. i said, why don't you run. i asked everybody in the room to close their eyes and said, put up your hand if you're ever going to run for office. and less than half of them. this is the politically astute,

political junkies, as we say, totally into it, 40% at the most said they were going to run for office. why are young people being driven away for running for office? we're getting the weakest list of presidential candidates we have ever had. hillary is fine in terms of her resume, but she's got problems, too. nobody wants to run for office anymore, nobody. especially these bright, young kids today. that is scary. >> why would you? >> democracy depends on good candidates. >> given the atmosphere that we're living in -- >> people talk about you -- anything that's associated you is in the street and on the table. but i'll say this as the mother of two young girls, i try to instill in them everyday self-esteem. they don't look like every person out here, but they're individual and perfect in their own way. and i'm telling you, that what donald trump did is wrong. >> one quick point on the polling, you brought up internal polling, both camps show trump sliding in the past few weeks. >> what started it, the debate performance? >> not the debate performance, what happened after the debate performance.

the late-night tweets. the two most important people watching this debate on sunday, speaker paul ryan and senate leader mcconnell. what do they privately think and advise their members? >> i'll tell you what's watching, women, and they'll make a final judgment on this guy, and if he acts like he's been acting, clergh. what howard and i learned today when we went and talked to people up in pennsylvania. that's a state trump needs absolutely to win and it may be slipping for him out of reach, which means he ain't going to win. we'll be back after this. into promotions? ♪ nah. what else? what if we hire more sales reps? ♪ nah. what else? what if we digitize the whole supply chain? so people can customize their bike before they buy it. that worked better than expected. i'll dial it back.

yeah, dial it back. just a little. live business, powered by sap. bp engineers use underwater robots, so they can keep watch over operations below the sea, even from thousands of feet above. because safety is never being satisfied. and always working to be better.

some people think i won that debate. i -- but i -- honestly, i'd leave that to others to say. but from where i sat, donald trump won that debate. donald trump's vision to make

america great again won that debate and donald trump's vision to make this nation great again is going to win all the way to the white house. >> what was the julius cesar line, thrice he was offered the crown and twice he denied it. we're right back, governor mike pence up in gettysburg, pennsylvania. we continue to follow the news from florida that is under a state of emergency as hurricane matthew barrels towards it at this hour. we'll have coming up in the last half hour this hour. we continue now with howard fineman, april ryan, and costa. we were talking to college kids, party shares chairs from both parties. we watched a pence rally, running around and interviewing all the guy at those rallies. a lot of cat hats, a lot of working people. very few suits in the room. these were not the rich people. these were regular people backing pence and trump. interesting, they were the classic "t" people in pennsylvania, when carville

calls alabama the middle of the state. what are the big three things you have to -- >> my first big takeaway is that mike pence is the real deal in that part of the country and in that part of the political system. very confident, but what struck me, also, was that his was not a cult of personality speech. the thing about this campaign is, neither of -- it's not a cult of personality. these are issues. people say this is not an issues-based campaign, but in a way because the candidates are so disliked. the focus is on the supreme court, it's on taxes, it's on actual, substantiative things. >> they've got the headlines. cheers today. >> and mike pence did not go on and on about donald trump's life story. you didn't hear, you know, him building x or y. >> he said the sponsor of the supreme court in this election -- >> they all want supreme court, supreme court. number one. number two is the fact that millennials that we talked to at a place like gettysburg, however reluctantly or

unenthusiastically, are coming towards hillary clinton. there are two reasons, money for college tuition. >> college tuition, and the obamacare, which allows them to stay on their parent's health care until the age of 26. none of these kids, by the way, we asked them this, we asked all 15 or so of them, do you think social security will be around when you're ready for it? not a single person said that, said so. so they want to get what they can get now, which is college tuition and healthcare. and third, as obscure as it sounds, we were in a rural farm area, where having migrant labor is actually not -- is seen as a good thing, not a bad thing. >> believe it or not, to pick the apples, you need the migrants. >> this is something you wouldn't know if you hadn't gone there. >> year-round residents, not just migrants. >> and it tinges and softens the view towards migrants. >> i think up in the apple

orchards, they say they're doing a job that needs doing and they're open to it. yesterday a rally in reno, donald trump made a point of pronouncing the state of nevada correctly. the only problem, he didn't pronounce it correctly. let's watch. >> heroine overdoses are surging and meth overdoses in nevada -- nevada -- and you know what i said? you know what i said? i said, when i came out here, i said, nobody says it the other way. it has to be "nevada," right? and if you don't say it correctly -- and it didn't happen to me, but it happened to a friend of mine, he was killed. >> he just dug the hole deeper and deeper and deeper by saying "nevada." that's what he said growing up on the east coast. but you learn when you go out there, anytime you learn, it's "nevada." by the way, is frisco next. is he going to go to san francisco and say, it's great to be in "frisco." >> for tanzania a couple of months ago, he was doing this

big foreign policy speech, he said "tan-zania." so i guess he's used to misspeaking. >> i'm the only one at this table to hitchhike through tanzania. >> peace corps, right? >> yes for the peace corps. >> do you think things matter or are we just picking points here. >> i think howard's point is a provocative one. when he asked the question to people on capitol hill, why haven't you deserted trump. when he sticks to the issues that appeal, economic, jobs, and not becoming just donald trump and all the donald trump controversy, they think he has a shot. and that's what they want to see sunday. >> sunny, suppose he does the perfect storm on sunday and does what most of us think he's got this far on, illegal immigration, uncontrolled immigration, that's most the republican party's fault, because they don't want a bill. to some extent, the democrats, too, they haven't done a tough bill. losing jobs through trade,

everyone's responsible for that, because we keep cutting these trade bills, places like michigan get hollowed out. maybe there used to be blockbuster movie place there. now there may be a diner, that's it. spencerville, ohio, places like that. >> terrorism, law and order. >> the three. i would say illegal immigration, trade and loss of jobs for guys, mainly manufacturing tough-guy jobs, and third, stupid wars. and yet, we think in the whole week, what it's about machado. alicia machado. >> can he speak to what you're talking about or can he going to speak about donald trump. >> or can he resist a personal shot from hillary? >> we asked mike pence, i said, what do you do when he tweets out something at 3:00 in the morning about this woman? why do you take his smartphone away? >> that's what you said. you said it to governor pence, take away his phone. >> what did he say? >> mike pence said, no, he said that donald trump likes to and can communicate with the

american people. >> with the american people. >> he used it like a plus. not only is he talking to you during the daytime, but at 3:00 energy. that's what a running mate has to do. >> and that's for the california, that's for the west coast folks. >> what?! >> you mean, time of day. >> yeah, the time of day, tweeting at 3:00 a.m. anyway, but here's the deal. when we really look at these debates, and i'm thinking about a conversation i had with former baltimore city mayor, kurt smoke in baltimore. >> rhodes scholar. >> he said one of the main issues going back to howard's point, supreme court. there's also issues of the economy, which brings in the trade issue. then there are also the issues in urban cities and mothers that have to deal with this criminal justice. that's on the table, as well. so we've got to look for answers, not just the glitz and the glimmer and shine and who can throw the one-liners. it's real people, real issues, and what affects -- >> i would go into every major city in the united states, and say, i'm going to rebuild the philadelphia subway system.

i'm going to build it from the ground up. i'm going to build it up and we have so many real jobs, paying $ 30, 40 bucks an hour, everybody's going to work for years, we're going -- then we're going to have a city that's up to date, like the parts of the world, anybody gets to visit. >> what about -- >> which is most of the rest of the world. >> we've got to go. >> what about the nation's bridges. >> everything. >> yes. infrastructure, roads. >> i would spend money on fixing things up with real jobs, forget the welfare everywhere else. real jobs, not leaf raking. he doesn't talk about this. i don't understand, i think hillary should do the same. i think building this country is what we ought to talk about. building it together. that's hillary's way. howard fineman, april ryan, robert costa, we'll be right back. full coverage of this monster storm right now, it's a category 4 storm right thousand, which is big-time. it's called matthew as it bears down on the coast of florida.

these catastrophic levels can complete wipe out well-built homes and destroy neighborhoods. >> that's florida governor rick scott today, talking earlier about the profound danger facing his state of florida as hurricane matthew nears the coast. for the latest, let's go down to the national hurricane center, ed rapport is the nhc national director. so give us a sense of where this stands in history. can we place it now in terms of its danger? >> well, it depends on whether the center comes ashore and how close it gets to it. right now we've got the center of the hurricane, about 100 miles off the florida coast. but the forecast is for that center, which is here on this graphic, to move towards the

northwest. here's the florida east coast, the red means we have a hurricane warning in effect. and the track of the center is forecast to come right up to the coast, perhaps move inland, and it's the area here in brown, which we can move along, slide along there, which is where the worst of the conditions are going to be, the core of the hurricane. this is where the category three and four winds are occurring. this is where the very dangerous storm surge is at a maximum. >> what strikes me, as a total amateur following this, is that the danger here is not just the horrible nature to have the winds and everything, it's how it just sits -- it's apparently just going to sit over a lot of the united states for a couple days. it's just going to sit there and just wreak havoc for a long time. >> right. well, at this stage, it does look like the entire florida east coast, particularly north of palm beach, is at risk, as is the coast from georgia to south carolina. and our biggest concern, really, as it is with most of the hurricanes, is storm surge. this is a prototype, national

weather service graphic that will be official next year. and it shows where there's the threat for life threatening -- where there is life threatening storm surge. you can see along the coast, spreads a little bit inland, even goes down the st. john's river. that occurs, because of if the center of the hurricane here with the winds flowing this way, it piles the water up along the coast and pushes it ashore. for this hurricane, we could see 7 to 11 feet of storm surge. that's the depth of the water moving inland, and on top of that, there'll be waves, as well. >> so much of florida along the resort areas, certainly the expensive parts of florida, have these offshore islands, like the offshore strips like miami beach. can that surge just go right over a place like miami, which apparently is deserted right now. can you go right over it, right to west palm? >> yes, they can certainly top the barrier islands. in this case, though, fortunately, the center is passing far enough offshore of miami-dade and broward counties that that's not an issue. but it could be an issue as the storm moves up the east coast.

that's the entire east coast from palm beach northward, up to south carolina. >> thanks for your expertise coming on from the national hurricane center. u.s. congressman patrick murphy is going shelter to shelter in his florida district. he joins us now by known from jupiter, florida. thank you for coming on. give us a sense, are people dealing with the fact that this could be the worse? are they getting ready for the worse? >> well, chris, it's a little bit early to tell right now. i went to a few shelters earlier today and, unfortunately, there weren't as many people there as the experts had predicted. and i was talking to a family in one of the shelters, and they said that they live in a trailer park that is near the shore, and they were the only family to evacuate. and that's scary to me, because this could be a catastrophic storm. and it looks like it's going to veer a little bit more north, but as you know, these things can change at the last minute, it can move a little bit left or to the west. and those folks that are, you

know, on the -- out along the coast there, whether that's the storm surge, whether that's the power outage, whether that's the wind, they need to be very careful, at this point, it's getting a little bit too late to evacuate, so we are recommending that folks hunker down and stay put until this storm has passed. >> i heard rick scott, the governor, say something odd today. he said, don't disobey this order or this request to get out to evacuate just because you like to defy orders. it's almost like working against the ownrneriness of people. does florida have a law that can tell people to leave by law or not? what's the legal situation? >> i was with the sheriff of martin county, the sheriff just north of where i'm at right now, palm beach, and he said that he's not going to go around and arrest people. they simply don't have the resources to do that. they have to make sure the resources are going to the true emergency situations. they are in what they call the emergency operation centers right now. whether that's the fire department, the police, folks from fema and the army corps of

engineers all coordinating with the federal and state governments to make sure they're handling the most critical of circumstances. >> you know, i remember, congressman, as you all do, you do as well, back when we had katrina hit new orleans, everybody was bragging about how we're going to get 95% of the people out of here, but that left 50,000 people stuck below the water line. the question is, what about those hangers-on. you said their best bet now at this point is to hunker down, as you put it? >> yes, at this point, the first bands are coming through north palm beach. the power is flickering and i would imagine within the next hour or two, we'll probably lose power here. we hope we don't, but with those tropical storm force winds, you often lose power. you don't want to be out on the streets, with the debris out there, or a downed power line, with some water, you step in it and it doesn't end well. we're advising people to stay in, use flashlights, don't use

candles. that sometimes can lead to even worse conditions. so, hunker down, stay safe, and don't leave at this point. >> is it smart to go to a local hotel even? or stay in your house? >> it's best to go to one of the shelters that have generators, that have food, that have emergency officials there. they have been, most folks should have power and internet right now. go on to your local news station, go on to your local agencies to find out the best place to go, regarding a shelter, not a hotel. >> okay, thanks so much, u.s. congressman patrick murphy of florida. we continue to monitor the hurricane, category four, it's called a monster storm. msnbc's live coverage of hurricane matthew will continue after this. stay with a coworker and wait out the storm and hopefully come back and be glad that i left. >> board up and pray. >> it's a little scary. card, you only earn double miles when you buy stuff from that airline.

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stop and think about this. we should not be putting people's lives at risk because you made the foolish decision not to evacuate. >> florida is bracing for hurricane matthew now, a strong category 4 storm. craig melvin is with us from melbourne, florida, who's getting ready for the worst. craig, you're right where it's going to hut? >> chris, we are. and i can tell you the last 20 or 30 minutes or so, we've seen the winds pick up considerably. you can see some of these palm trees that are all over, of course, all of florida. these palm trees starting to sway far more than they have throughout the course of the afternoon. street signs rike this. we are, for the most part, minus some emergency vehicles and a few police officers, we're the only people on the street here in melbourne. roughly 75,000 people live here, about an hour south of orlando.

and a drive in from the airport, you would be hard-pressed to find even a gas station open. fast food restaurants boarded up. a lot of folks heeding the warnings from local officials here to get the heck out of town. i talked to one of the cops a short time ago. he said they were very pleased that most folks, most folks seem to have evacuated. again, i'm going to show you the street here. there's a causeway maybe about a quarter of a mile from here, chris. typically, they shut down the causeway when the winds reach 35 to 40 miles per hour. police tell me they're not going to do that tonight, because they really want people to continue to get out of here. they are expecting wind gusts tonight, somewhere between 55 and 60 miles per hour. topper morning, somewhere between 5, 6, maybe 7. local officials say they are bracing for wind gusts north of

100 to 120 miles an hour. this is the same area where you might remember back in 2004, 2005, hurricane after hurricane after tropical storm battered this city so much so, in fact, that they're still recovering more than 10, 15 years later. this is an area that has seen its fair share of storms. i talked to an official, i said, they are expecting this to be the worst that they've seen, in some 30 years. you can't really see it from here. i'll try to show you, we are maybe 200 feet away from the ocean. the fear here, of course, is that storm surge that we spent so much time talking about this afternoon and this evening, that when the waters rise and they're saying they could rise somewhere between 10 inches to a foot, if not more than a foot, then a lot of these businesses behind me, a lot of these homes behind me, they'll be flooded. that's going to be the story here of the storm surge, the power outages, of course, as

well, chris. >> well, take care of yourself. i just saw you, by the way, somewhere around richmond. there you are down in florida, craig. take care of yourself. that was craig melvin. by the way, 1 1/2 million people have been ordered to evacuate in advance of hurricane matthew, but not all are leaving. they've been encouraged to leave, but haven't left. marianne is with a family hunkering down right now in melbourne where we just were with craig. marianne, tell us -- well, let's meet that family. >> reporter: hi, chris. that's right, i'm here with the mckinney family about three miles from where craig was. like millions of families throughout this state, they've made their preparations, pondered whether or not to evacuate. in their case, they're staying put, they're now sitting down, watching the news, waiting for this monster storm to arrive. i want to talk to susan here, who i met at the boardwalk where craig was earlier this morning. susan, you live in georgia. what are you doing here now in melbourne? >> well, we had a trip already planned here.

we were going to come down, surprise our mom and watch one of our kids play soccer. we found out about the hurricane, we already had the time off, we were already coming here, and i didn't want to turn around and tell my family i wasn't going to come down here when they could need us, so we came. >> reporter: and you're a hurricane pro, because you grew up here in florida? >> my whole life. >> so, mom to susan is barbara over here. i want you to meet tom and barbara mckinney, and their dog, bella. are you happy your daughter decided to stay and accompany you through this storm tonight? >> yes, i am. i was a bit concerned, but i know how stubborn she is and when she wants to see her family, she wants to see her family. good times, bad times, she's coming. so, i'm glad she's here. >> barbara, you've got your whole family here. what kind of preparations have you made for when this storm hits, possibly, tonight into tomorrow morning? >> well, we have water, we have

food, we have ice, our biggest thing is if we lose power. >> and chris, just -- i think upwards of 20,000 people have already lost power throughout this state and the storm hasn't even hit. tom, do you guys have a generate, for example? >> no, we don't. >> reporter: does that concern you at all? >> no, we'll be all right. >> reporter: you also are hurricane pros, right? you were referencing andrew before, do you think this will be like andrew? >> actually, andrew, if you remember, a high came out when it was supposed to hit brevard county. a high came out and it hit miami instead. so we really didn't experience that. i don't think this storm will be anywhere near andrew. do i think we need to be concerned and watchful? yes, i do. but it's just being prepared and making the best of what you can. >> reporter: and i -- before i leave with you, chris, i want you to meet young azly over

here. this will be your first hurricane? >> yes. >> reporter: are you scared? >> well, i'm nervous. >> reporter: a slice of life here, chris. families like the mckinneys deciding to stay put and we'll follow up with them tomorrow when this monster storm hits melbourne, florida. >> that's a great report. thanks so much for joining us and bringing those people to us. the palm beach area is getting ready for a possible direct hit. joining us by phone is governor jerry moiya of west palm beach, florida. mayor, thank you for joining us. i was asking about these barrier islands being hit by a surge. can that surge jump across miami beach to west palm? can that happen? >> reporte >> well, we have palm beach to the east of us, which is a barrier island. i don't think we'll see any jumping going on, but we have an intercoastal waterway that will surge, as well, and mostly some flooding along flagler drive, which goes right along the intercoastal waterway. you've been here, chris, you know what it's like in north palm beach. it's beautiful and right now

we're hoping for the best. >> what do you think people should do, if you had to advise them right now? get out of town, join the traffic rush out of town or hunker down or go to a hotel or go to a shelter? they've got some options, not many. >> yeah, well, we've been telling people to shelter in place at this point. if you haven't left, it's probably not a good time to leave, because we're starting to see the bands come in here. and a lot of wind and rain. make sure people have a safe room in their house. be careful if the electricity goes out, be careful using candles, try to use flashlights. if you have a generator, don't bring it inside. just try to give people a lot of good advice. >> do you think this is part of the regular hurricane season, or is this something that's extraordinary in terms of climate? >> well, you know, i think it's extraordinary. part of the reason this hurricane is so large is that there was nothing to stop it. so the water around florida and

in the atlantic is very warm. and that, of course, is a concern, as we talk about global warming. and it didn't go over any land to get broken up, so the problem is it just -- there to stop it. and part of it is because the water is so very warm. >> yeah, i just wonder about florida being so close to sea level and the fact that this climatic situation is raising the sea level and making everything more precarious. thank you for taking the time. >> it's very concerning. >> mayor, thanks so much, mayor jeri muoio goingi injoining us. more, track to track, hurricane matthew as it bears down on the coast of florida. >> people do not seem to get it and are not leaves, and i have already checked. i'm not saying this to be theatrical. you all know me. i don't lean toward bravado, but i talked to my detective captain earlier today and i asked him, do you have body bags?

are you prepared for mass casualties? because if people do not leave, and we get 140 mile an hour wind gusts in some of our mobile home place, we are going to have fatalities. [dad] see, the carwash isn't so scary. [boy] that was awesome! [dad] yeah. [burke] covered. november fourteenth, 2015. talk to farmers, we know a thing or two because we've seen a thing or two. ♪ we are farmers. bum-pa-dum, bum-bum-bum-bum ♪

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learn more at yeson64.org vote yes on 64. we're back. hurricane matthew left 264 people dead across the caribbean. many of them in haiti. and now florida's getting ready for the worst. let's go to daytona beach. that's where nbc's ron motte is in an suv on the roads there.

ron, give us a sense of what's happening there. >> reporter: hey there, chris. well, we decided to get out here on the road just to see what we could see out here before this becomes impossible to do. this is the main north/south drag along the coast here in daytona beach, atlantic avenue. let me take you outside here. show you what we're seeing. this is a scene that officials want to see all night long, which is very little to no traffic out here. we have seen a couple cars go by us before we got on the air with you, chris. you see some flashing lights up there. there's a police officer sitting there in the middle of the intersection and is stopping cars making sure that people know where they're going and not just wandering around. because that is going to be a problem here in a couple, three hours when this business end of this storm bears down over daytona beach. we are anticipating getting quite a bit of storm surge here. could top ten feet. we'll see. if it does, that may threaten this roadway here. one thing that i thought was interesting, chris, is that a lot of these businesses, they're geared toward the tourism

industry, and all the folks who come down for fun in the sun here, many of them didn't board up which i found sort of interesting and maybe they're taking their chances thinking that because they are facing due east, we're expecting when those first bands, real bands get in here, we're expecting the winds to be coming almost straight at us from the north, maybe north-northeast, they think they're going to be okay to last through the storm. again, this all depends on where this eye is when it gets around daytona beach. if we stay on the western side, which everyone is hoping for, the winds won't be nearly as strong and we think that that should help a lot of these businesses that didn't board up make it through the worst of this storm. if somehow we get too close to that eye or end up on the eastern edge of it, all bets are off, chris,s because that's the side you don't want to be on. back up to you. >> ron motte, thanks for that. anyway, we used to go down there for our spring breaks and drive along the beach. those beaches were so strong down there. anyway, for a sense of what florida may be facing right now, just look at the bahamas. nbc's tammy leitner is with us from nassau in the bahamas, of

course, which took a direct hit from hurricane matthew. tammy, give us a preview based upon what's happening there. >> reporter: chris, the rain is finally sub sided enough that we can go out and check out the damage, now this is the main downtown area where the tourists come, from the cruise ships stop. the street is lined with stores and now it's also lined with water. you can see they put some sandbags up here, but it did not do a lot of good. there's actually water inside of these stores and it goes pretty far back. you know, we had a very short, short window to take a drive around the island and we saw a lot of devastation. trees down. power poles down. trees on top of houses. roads completely washed away. and we now know people are still trapped in their houses. chris? >> so is paradise island under water, too, and atlantis, all these resorts? are they under water? >> reporter: you know, we have not been able to get over to paradise island, as you know,

there's a bridge connecting them. we do know everybody at atlantis, they were evacuated from their rooms. they had to sleep on the floor over there in a big ballroom. so i'm guessing that everybody is safe. we're told there are about 3,000 visitors on this island and all the visitors are accounted for. >> was it -- was it a category 4 when it went through the bahamas? what was the category level of the storm when it went through where you are? >> reporter: yeah, it eventually upgraded to a category 4 and, i mean, this island just got pummeled. i mean, we were out there in the eye of the storm for at least nine hours and the winds were 125, 130 miles an hour. trees were just bending in the wind. we saw cars smashed, roads completely flooded and just devastation, utter devastation from this nine hours of beating that this island took. >> so, to be in a brick building, we're looking right

now at the sort of classic pictures of the look down there in bahamas. if you're in a brick building or strong structure, were you okay? or is -- people in the mobile homes, the manufactured homes in florida, who's going to be at risk? >> reporter: i can tell you who's going do be at risk. the houses on the south side of this island. you know, we were in a hotel and our hotel had tiles coming through holes in the ceiling where water was coming through. our hotel was falling apart this morning when the storm was coming through. so i can only imagine what the houses on the south side of the island look like now. we've not been able to get over there. that was the first part of the island that was hit from this hurricane and i'm guessing that's where most of the damage is. >> is the water level crested now around you? i see a car driving through. it looks like it's about three, four inches deep. is that it? you've seen the worst there? in the bahamas? >> reporter: you know what, this is actually receded, chris.

so i'm up on the sidewalk. i'm stepping down here onto the street. i mean, this is only about ten inches now. it has receded some from when we first came out a few hours ago. >> yeah. >> reporter: i mean, there are neighborhoods that have three feet of water in their frontyards. >> you've got a story to tell for all times, tammy leitner, thank you, from nassau in the bahamas. what a look. that does it for us this hour. our continuing coverage of hurricane matthew continues now with chris hayes. good evening from new york. i'm chris hayes. breaking news at this hour, as hurricane matthew, the first major hurricane to hit florida in 11 years, possibly the worst since hurricane andrew in 1992, possibly even worse than that, is on course for a potentially catastrophic collision with the florida coast and beyond. even if it never actually makes landfall. the category 4 storm forcing the emergency evacuation of more than 2 million people and directly threatening a