hurricane matthew watch continues. friends, the storm, has for now, stayed far enough offshore to spare central florida, the direct hit many had feared. it is not over yet. the city of jacksonville, areas of georgia and north carolina are still on high alert and we'll be tracking that throughout the show. meanwhile, just 48 hours before the second presidential debate,

donald trump is in double trouble for a pair of controversial utterances that are burning up the wires at this hour. one took place at an immigration roundtable at trump tower today, and we'll talk about that in a moment. the other was into a hot mike more than ten years ago, but, whoo, boy, is it a scorcher. a video obtained by "the washington post" features audio of trump in 2005 making comments that the word lewd and vulgar are mild descriptions for, about trying to sleep with a married woman. at the time, trump himself was married to his third wife, melania, and he was talking to billy bush from "access hollywood," as they were arriving on the set of "days of our lives" to tape a segment. donny, people have -- this video is out. we're going to play some of it momentarily, but almost everybody watching this show will have already seen it. so i want to ask you this. trump was going to get asked about bad language, bad attitudes towards women already. this is going to be a big topic on sunday for sure, given the

way the first debate went, alicia machado, all of that. how much worse do you think this makes it and what can trump do now, given the depth of the hole he's dug himself in? >> let the record show at 4:01 p.m. on october 7th, this election ended. this -- when this "washington post" story broke. this is so lewd -- and i actually, yesterday morning, said on "morning joe," you watch, in the next week, once a week, there will be stuff with women coming out. because this man has lived this way for 30 or 40 years. hillary clinton's been vetted. this is his first go around, and they've been saving the best for last. this is this is going to be so offensiv offensive, it's not just that he's talking about sleeping with women when he's married, it's the lewdness, the misogyny. this election ended, and the scary thing, there will be more to come. >> there's a -- the trump campaign put out a statement. i want to read that statement. i want to get the statement up here. again, we're going to play this in a second, but this is the

trump campaign's statement about this video we're going to show you in a second. they said, this was locker room banter, a private conversation that took place many years ago. bill clinton has said far worse to me on the golf course, not even close. i apologize if anyone was offended. so, i'll say, i said yesterday on this show that before this had happened, that the only recourse trump would have, given the things he's said about women including mooee ing alicia mach only recourse he had was to apologize in a forthright way. we will play the video, but saying, "i apologize if anyone was offended" is not an apology. the only recourse he has now, the only recourse is an abject policy to the women of america. take a look at this. watch the video now and see if you agree with me. >> i moved on her, actually. you know, she was down on palm beach. i moved on her and i failed, i

admit it. i did try to [ bleep ] her, she was married. nancy, i moved on her very heavily. in fact, i took her out furniture shopping. she wanted to get some furniture, i said, i'll show you where they have some nice furniture. i moved on her like a [ bleep ]. i couldn't get there. and she was married. and all of a sudden, i see her, she's now got the big phony [ bleep ] and everything. she's totally changed her look. i've got to use some tic tacs in case i start kissing them. i'm automatically attracted to beautiful women. i start kissing them. and when you're a star, they let you do. you can do anything. do whatever you want. grab them by the [ bleep ]. hi, how are you? you know billy bush. >> how are you? >> are you ready to be a soap star? >> i am. >> how about a little hug for the donald. >> absolutely. >> melania said this was okay. >> i just got off the bus. >> there we go! excellent! well, you've got a nice co-star here. >> yes, absolutely.

>> come on, billy, don't be shy. >> as soon as a beautiful woman come shows up. >> so everything about that is gross, right? just gross, gross, gross. and of course, yes, of course, it is locker room banter and there are many men who have engaged in such locker room banter, but this is a guy with a huge pre-existing problem. again, i'm not saying -- we know people. maybe even you and i, on some occasions, have said things that are vulgar and lewd. >> which is one of the reasons i'm not running for office. >> but we're not running for president, and on top of that, we haven't publicly fat shamed people and publicly called people pigs and dogs and slobs. we don't have a history of that kind of crudeness towards more than 50% of the american population. this is a huge -- it's -- like the worst thing to happen in politics to any candidate is when a pre-existing narrative that you have created yourself to some extent and your opponents have helped to foster, when that gets illustrated in the most vivid way possible. this is an exiing problem for trump that is now going nuclear. >> in the '92 clinton election, you had a big poster in the wall

of the war room, "it's the economy, stupid." it's the women, stupid. and just like any women -- i think this will now galvanize women to come out and vote. just like barack obama, any african-american in any way that was ever kept down, offended, had anything to happen to them in life, which was almost anybody, about their race, this now for women, for any woman who was harassed in the workplace, who felt objectified by men, there's an anger towards women about this. there is a level of disdain of women. >> pause for a moment. i want to read -- we have a clinton statement. we don't have -- there was a clinton tweet from hillary clinton or from the campaign? tell me, people. which is it? no? from hillary clinton herself. hillary clinton has tweeted, maybe under her name, under her staff's name, calling this a horrific comment. they're already starting to capitalize on that. >> and i think there were some things that were bleeped out. it shows a disdain for women. it's not just, hey, she's hot, you know, and women are going to

come out in droves and they're going to speak and that's what the -- the election ended today. and by the way, there'll be four more in the next four weeks. >> i said before that i thought trump needed to apologize. i want to say it this way. i think you may be right, maybe. i don't know, still a lot of days until election day. but forget about winning the election, donald trump like needs to apologize at this point in order to save -- if he wants to retain any semblance of his dignity, and some people say he has no dignity anyway, but he needs to do a lot more than he said in this statement. not really apologizing for this disgusting -- >> and the communication guys, how do you -- like, it's who he is. he's shown it. >> he doesn't like to apologize. >> i think we're going to watch the wheels come off now. at trump tower, the republican nominee was holding a roundtable with leaders of a border control union when one of those labor officials from arizona reportedly claimed that immigration agents were not deporting people who were in

this country illegally so those immigrants could vote in the election. according to a pool report, trump stated the allegations, quote, they're letting people pour into the country so they can go and vote. here's another conspiracy theory that fits perfectly into his basic thesis that this election is rigged. last week, he urged his supporters to monitor polling places for voter fraud. if trump loses the elections, how much of the arguments are going to play into that? >> i think one of the most disgraceful things that's been true of trump, we just played something that's disgraceful in a different way, but in terms of taking seriously what the responsibilities are if you're the nominee of a major party, the notion that you have suggested for months now that somehow the election was rigged, and that somehow if he lost, it would be because of vote theft or somehow that the corruption, you know, telling people, hey, you know, we can't win or lose pennsylvania, unless it's stolen from us.

all of that shows an incredible disrespect and disregard for what, as i say, the responsibilities of being the nominee are. your job as the nominee is to fight as hard as you can, and when you lose, to ensure the peaceful transfer of power to the next person who's president of the united states. i think trump will try to undermine that. i think this is another sign that he's going to go way further and it's going to be really bad. >> trump beyond anything is a marketer. and he has a target audience of 40 million uneducated, disenfranchised white americans. his first strategy to sell them is to sell them on a presidency. his backup strategy is to sell them on a revolution. that basically coming out of this election, everything was rigged, they're still out to get you, which sets him up, we've talked about this, for the trump political party, the trump network. he all along has been hedging that even if he loses, he's going to stay connected to this audience, not in the form of a president, but in the form of a revolutionary leader, doesn't matter whether he loses big or not, he's setting himself up.

in the next four weeks, you'll see this ratchet. >> to be clear, trump was picking up on something someone else said at this roundtable, but he seized on it in an aggressive way. and the person who first said it and to donald trump, the idea that the border patrol is being told to let illegal immigrants rush into the country in order so they can vote for hillary clinton -- >> which they won't be able to vote -- >> -- is insane. last night donald trump held a town hall in new hampshire. at first glance, it seemed like it was going to be a practice round for his big debate against hillary clinton on sunday night. everyone was watching closely to see if we would see clues of a different donald trump, one who interacts compassionately with the audience and shows more message discipline. so here is how trump did. >> -- back from las vegas, where we gave a tremendous -- i mean, we had a tremendous crowd of people. a lot of hispanics, latinos, they like to be called in that area. you know that, right? hispanics and latinos. >> karen whitaker from sanddown.

>> make america great again! >> thank you. thank you. i like this audience. i like this audience. bernie sanders would have been legendary if he didn't make a deal with the devil. when he made that deal, his stock went way down. john harwood was the worst moderator out of all the debates we had. you know, they used john king, actually. he's a nice guy. i look him on the maps. i used to say, i think some day he'll be an anchor. he's doistill doing the maps. do you really think that hillary clinton is debate prepping for three or four days? she's resting. she wants to build up her energy for sunday night. and you know what, that's fine. let's have a fun question. >> what is one of your earliest memories as a child and why do you think it stands out? and then she says, go, donald. >> thank you, thank you. the most successful people i've ever met are the people that never quit, they never give up. they just don't take no for an answer. so, do something that you really love doing, because then it's not work. and never, ever quit or give up.

>> so trump said that the event last night in new hampshire was not a dress rehearsal for the washington university debate this weekend in st. louis. donny, if trump shows up that way on sunday and repeats this performance, do you think that will be enough to put him in a position to maybe win the debate? in the context of what we've been talking about earlier in the show, it seems like your answer might be no. >> even without that, people said that that was softballs. that was more t-ball. questions like, what are you going to say to hispanics who have been deceived by obama and clinton in the biased media to get you to vote for you, i don't think he's going to get questions like that. if anything, i think it hurts him. obviously, it was a setup audience. there was nothing about the logistics that has to happen in a town hall and walking around. if he in any way, shape, or form this is this prepares him, that actually set him backwards. i think we'll see a disaster from him. because what he's never faced at a town hall before is a latino person or a muslim person face

to face asking about these allegations. hillary clinton's kind of negatives -- nobody's going to stand up and say, i represent e-mails for this country, or i represent the clinton foundation. east going to come face to face with his sins and he's going to unwind. >> i think you look at the way he performed, he barely interacted with anybody in the audience. he was calmer, he was in a friendly crowd, he was calmer. but beyond being calmer, he didn't really interact with anybody in the audience and he still was launching all kinds of crazy attacks on -- >> and john harwood! >> john harwood, the moderators. if this is the way that trump is going to go, he's going to be up there on stage, i don't want to make a prediction about this, but he's got two moderators up there. martha raddatz and anderson cooper. he believes that anderson cooper a is a member of the clinton news network. he's going to come in with a chip on his shoulder about anderson to begin with. i the not disallow the opportunity that trump will try to take on anderson in the middle of the debate. if he gets in a fight with someone in the audience, in a fight with the moderator, or if he ignores the audience as he basically did last night, beyond the larger issues that he's

facing right now, this debate will not going to go well for donald trump. >> what are we going to do november 8th? this show is ending soon. >> read the prompter, donny. coming up, reverend al sharpton joins us to talk about yet eat controversial trump fix. we'll be right back. chfficer if the president gave the order we had to launch the missiles, that would be it. i ayed that call would never come. [ radio chatter ] self control may be all t tt keeps these missiles from firing. [ sirens blearing ] i would bomb the [ beep] out of them. i want to be unpredictable. the thought of donalaltrump th clear weapons scares me death it should sce everyone. i'm hillary clinton and i approvthis message.

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the gruesome story of an 1989 rape case has made its way backs into the headlines because of what donald trump said about the case yesterday. the central park jogger case involved five boys assaulting and bludgeoning a 28-year-old woman who survived. during the trial, those five boys said they were coerced into confessions after days of interrogation, but they were still found guilty. in 2002, a convicted rapist and murderer confessed that he committed the crime and his dna matched the dna found at the scene. all five of the original convicts were exonerated and in 2014, new york city paid them a

$41 million settlement. as a private citizen, donald trump was outspoken about this case, saying he thought the so-called central park five were guilty. and yesterday in a story published by cnn, the now-republican nominee repeated his belief we saying, quote, they admitted they were guilty. the police doing the original investigation said they were guilty. the fact that the case was se d settled with so much evidence against this is outrageous. joining us to talk about someone who played a public role in that case is reverend al sharpton, host of msnbc's "politics nation." rev, good to see you. >> good to see you. just right off the bat here, your reaction to donald trump still sticking with the notion that the central park five were guilty is what? >> i mean, if he wanted to say that i believed it at that time, that's one thing. to say now, after dna established, dna. we're talking about scientific evidence, that someone that confessed to it in jail was, in fact, the one that did it, and to say that it was outrageous

and the evidence was against them, when the scientific evidence is what vindicated them, to me, shows that this is the level of a man that can never, ever possibly say he's wrong. >> so what is it about in your view? i mean, this is -- you just laid out a case where no rational person, unless they had maligned the motives, would go where he's going. so what's your interpretation of what he's trying to do here politically? >> well, i think, politically, he's playing to people that he feels have certain biases and certain leanings in this country. some racial, some just based on their anti-whatever is going on. and he's trying to play to that crowd that i'll never step down. even in the face of dna evidence. i stood with these five young men when they were first charged. and they said they were coerced. one of them, when he finally got out of jail, one did 15 years and had to come work at national action network, even after he was vindicated, because he did

15 years of the best years of his life. and for this young man to see now that after all of this, donald trump is saying that the evidence was against him and it's outrageous to think that they would get a settlement, who is he playing to here? it shows, one, that he will play to any kind of bias. and second, that he absolutely does not have the capacity to apologize or say that he's wrong. i mean -- >> it's interesting -- >> -- you're dealing with these tapes that you started the show for. he can't even apologize for his own voice. you're going to put this man in the white house and he can't deal with his own voice. >> mike barnicle said, there's no capacity for empathy. here are men that served chunks of their life, dna says it's wrong. we've both known donald a long time. i never thought the guy was a racist, i didn't know him intimately, but i never heard anything. how do you, as someone who's

known him, how can you look at him any other way but a racist at this point? how do you -- how do we get him off the hook and say, well, is there any other way to slice and dice it at this point? >> about two years ago on "politics nation," i kept hitting him on the racial implications of the birther issue, which he was championing. and he and i talked, because i agreed, disagreed, marched on him and have disagreed, but he and i talked. i met with him. and he said, you can't call me a racist, and i said, the birther issue is rooted in racism. and he argued about it. now he's done from birther on is even worse than racism, because he's playing to what he knows is racism. so if he's not a real racist, it's even worse that you're going to fan racism. so whether he sits around at night saying, i hate blacks, i hate mexicans, i don't know, it's worse than that if you

flame what you know is racial animus. i couldn't think of anything lower than that. >> it's been surprising to me that he would come back. just the other day he was talking about how under hillary clinton, we see now, under hillary clinton and barack obama, we see racial riots in our city. there's so much of it. i know there's the personal thing of, who's this man in his heart, but i find it hard to come up with an operative explanation, other than that he is trafficking in racist tropes at a very minimum. >> at a very minimum. and for him, if in his heart he doesn't believe it, it makes you even a worse character to do something. what kind of person wouldn't believe it and could do these kind of things. >> at the end of the day, that makes him a racist even if he doesn't believe it. >> gentleman, we've got to get out. reverend al sharpton, thank you for coming by. >> pray for those down in the hurricane. >> you can pray for them, for sure. and also catch the reverend's show, "politics nation" on msnbc on sunday mornings at 8:00 a.m. if you're up that early. coming up, we will talk about ads after these ads. anything meant to stand needs a stable foundation.

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♪ using 60,000 points from my chase ink card i bought all the framework... wire... and plants needed to give my shop... a face... no one will forget. see what the power of points can do for your business. learn more at chase.com/ink now for a favorite topic of mine, campaign advertising, we're joined by someone who's equally obsessed with the topic. ken goldstein of bloomberg politics polling. he's in san francisco now. ken, there's some breaking news today on trump's ad spending, talk of him cutting back. what are you hearing and from where? >> so, it seems that donald trump is cutting back on his spending in florida, in iowa, in north carolina, and in ohio.

listen, usually,, you know -- and it is a sad time for people like you and me, who are obsessed with ads, because, listen, we talk about ads, we think ads matter, but we think ads matter at the margin. you and john have just had a whole discussion about donald trump's recent comments. and that's about not things mattering at the margin. that's about things mattering in a massive, massive way. so, it suggests a little bit of restrategizing, if that's a word by trump nerms of what states he's looking at, but all of that is just going to get washed away, sorry to use that analogy now with the news that just broke here in this last hour, hour and a half, that you were discussing. >> so, ken, one of the things you're always focused on and one of the things you've sort of taught me is we're all obsessed with polls, but forget about the content of ads. if we watch the pattern of spending and where ads are being placed and where they're being pulled, it tells you a lot in some cases more about the campaign than the polls do in some respects. just talk about what we -- what the picture is now if you look

at the pattern of ad spending and some of the new ways you have been thinking about how to quantify that? >> sure. and this is, you know, all analysis that i did an hour and a half ago, right before the world changed on us. but, advertising is reality. you can say you're contesting a state, you can say a state is competitive, but the bottom line, in the new world of digital and internet, if you're not spending ad dollars in a state, you're not serious. so we see where the hillary clinton campaign is serious. they're serious in florida, they're serious in nevada. they are spending money in pennsylvania. so it's not just this, you know, fantasy discussion about whether pennsylvania could possibly be in play. look, frankly, like in things in the trump campaign, usually i would say, i don't need to be inside the war room, because i can see what the ads are saying. i'm not even sure the trump has a war room or they're making these data-driven decisions. but when it comes to the clinton campaign, they're serious about

florida, sears about pennsylvania, serious about ohio, serious about nevada. colorado and virginia, they think, are in the bag. >> so ken, really quick, with the trump campaign pulling ads from where they're pulling ads, does that say to you they're giving up on those states? and how could that possibly make sense, if true? >> now you're asking me to make sense of trump campaign decisions. if i was trying to make sense of decisions, what the thinking would be is, north carolina, ohio, they have to win those anyways. pennsylvania is the pivot point. that's maybe where ads matter at the margin, but this does not look like it's going to be at the margin. >> ken goldstein, thank you. we'll strategize with some strategists when we come back, right after this. rything, so we know how to cover almost anything. even mer-mutts. (1940s aqua music)

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i'm ari melber and we're here with another update on hurricane matthew. nearly a million florida residents currently without power as this storm is moving north. meteorologist bill karins has an update for us. >> we're still seeing millions of dollars of damage being done right now. we're watching storm surges in the areas of georgia now that's moved up into, and we're still looking at the damage in areas of jacksonville, st. augustine, and all the way down through daytona beach. we still have a powerful category 2 hurricane. looks very impressive on satellite imagery. it's not weakening all that much. tonight we're going to take it northwards towards savannah as a category 2 storm. very close to the eye wall, charleston, a direct hit late tonight. we're going to start dealing with heavy rain and flooding problems along the i-95 corridor. we'll track the storm as it heads northward and right along the coast as we go throughout the night. i want to get into the tracking of this storm. we are not all about 100 to about 105 miles away.

this is the northern eye wall, the strongest portion of the storm, and it is going to head in this general direction tonight. now 94 miles away. that's going to be about 7 to 8 hours from now. we'll watch the landfalling of the northern eye of this storm. that's when the most significant wind damage will be. 4:00 a.m., i have that northern eye located over the top of charleston, south carolina. it'll wake a lot of people up, there'll be trees falling, that's when the power outages will occur, and up towards the coast, watch out, wilmington, north carolina, as we go throughout the morning on saturday. >> now we go to nbc's jacob soboroff right in the thick of it on neptune beach. jacob? >> reporter: hey, ari, i'm here with bob ship, who's a local resident here at neptune beach. bob, you and only one other neighbor stuck around out here. you suspect we're through the worst of the it. why did you stay? half the tudune we're standing right now was actually washed out into the ocean. >> we have dogs, we have animals

in our family, and there was no place to take them, so there had to be someone to stay out here to take care of the animals and i'm taking care of some of my neighbors, their dogs, too, and cats. >> reporter: bob, have you ever, over the course of your time here, seen anything like this? were you worried for your house? you said that the water was actually coming up over the dunes here. is this a storm the likes of which you've ever seen in this area? >> i've never been in a storm lake this before, but my house was built in 1936 and i was pretty sure that it would make it and it did fine. so we're just waiting right now for the storm to pass on by, so we can turn back to normal. >> what have you heard from your neighbors? everybody's okay? everybo everybody's property is okay out here? >> no, there's fences down. my one friend, chris, his house has got some aluminum siding off of it. i know that i've heard that some trees are down. my mother lives in jack's beach,

i'm going over and checking on her house. but most of it -- it seems like all the houses in neptune beach, down here by the ocean, seems like they've held up pretty well. >> chris wooten is someone we met over the course of our travels out here, over the course of the presidential campaign. of course, this area not only important to floridians, because it's their open, but crucial to donald trump and hillary clinton. and bob ship is a candidate here in neptune beach, the same day everybody will be voting for president. bob, good luck to you. thank you very much. and ari, i'll send it back to you. >> i'm just glad that most people are safe and sound and that you have combined our politics and weather coverage all in one, one block. thank you very much. and you guys stay safe out there in the rain. you can keep watching here on msnbc. we will have the updates for hurricane matthew throughout our hour and coverage tonight. we'll also go back right now to "with all due respect" after this break.

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i moved on her. she was out of palm beach. i moved on her, and i failed. i did try to [ bleep ] her. nancy, i moved on her very heavily. in fact, i took her out furniture shopping. she wanted to get some furnitur i said, i'll show you where they have some nice furniture. i moved on her like a [ bleep ]. i couldn't get there.

and she was married. and all of a sudden i see her, she's now got the big phony [ bleep ]. she's totally changed her look. i've got to use some tic tacs in case i start kissing her. you know, i'm automatically attracted to beautiful -- i just start kissing them. it's like a magnet. and when you're a star, they let you do it. you can do anything. >> whatever you want. >> grab them by the [ bleep ]. >> hello, how are you? hi. >> mr. trump, how are you? nice to meet you. >> terrific, terrific. you know billy bush. >> hi, how are you doing? >> i'm doing very well, thank you. you ready to be a soap star? >> i'm ready to go. >> that was a replay of that video that is now making the rounds, pretty much everywhere. the hot mike moment of donald trump in 2005, released by "the washington post." hillary clinton's campaign has taken to twitter to respond, calling the video horrific and saying, quote, we cannot allow this man to become president. her running mate, tim kaine, told reporters in las vegas just now that the video makes him, quote, sick to my stomach. with us from chicago is harry

sabuggen, and joining us from washington, d.c., john brabender, a longtime republican strategist who worked as an a adviser on rick santorum's 2016 presidential campaign and has been helping out mike pence a little bit. john, i want to start with you as the republican on the panel -- >> thanks, appreciate it! >> first of all, i want to note that you look like a bouncer at studio 54. >> thank you. >> but beyond that -- i like bouncers at studio 54. that's a compliment. my friend, donny deutsch here says the election is over, on the basis of everything that's come before, but with a punctuation mark with this trump tape. i would like to hear your argument for why that's not true. >> yeah, with first of all, i'll say two things about it. one is, i've learned in doing this for 30-some years, campaigns -- things are never as bad as you think they are and they're never as good as you think they are. they're very fluid. and we'll see if -- we'll see what happens in the next 48 hours. the key is going to be, the first thing the press is going to do is go to a bunch of senate candidates and congressional candidates in tough races, and

ask them to comment on it. and they're either going to say, look, he apologized, it was a long time ago, it was unfortunate, i don't condone this. but there are bigger issues. or they're going to throw him under the bus. and that's when we're going to determine how this goes. >> john, if these were guys who are running for office and go home to wives and have daughters, how can they brush it off? there are certain things you just, no matter where your politics are, you just, for both a human, moralistic point of view and a self-survival point of view, how does anybody not distance themselves from this? i can't see the point a versus point b. >> well, first of all, that is entirely true. i can't say in strong enough terms that this was inappropriate. i think it's surprising. maybe a little bit less surprising that donald trump said it. in fact, maybe the most surprising thing was he said that he tried something and failed in it. but, you know, the truth of the matter is, hillary clinton has said a lot of things that are strange. bill clinton has said a lot of things that are strange. what has become sort of the norm is this type of bizarre behavior, and people have more

of a comfort level for this than they have in the past. but i want to say this again. we will know in the next 48 hours whether this is going to be one of those things that just is the final straw or if people come to expect this, like they did after he went after john mccain with language and all those type of things. >> i think the issue is those things do not qualify as strange comments on donald trump donald trump's part, and that's not how a lot of voters will see them. but i want to ask heaarri, you' not working on the clinton campaign, but you've worked on some presidential campaigns. if you were, what's the right way for them to handle this and prosecute it effectively in the days before the debate and then on the debate stage for hillary clinton? >> ii i think the debate is goi to be interesting, because the format doesn't really allow for direct interaction. so they'll have to be very thoughtful and hillary will have to be thoughtful in how she approaches this. but i think to the earlier question, this is a devastating comment for donald trump, because this effects the demographic groups that he needs

to move and where he's lost ground. white suburban women. mitt romney won white college-educated women 52-46. and donald trump in this latest monmouth poll is losing them 27-57. the groups that he needs to run up the score, he's losing really, really badly. and this video goes directly to them. >> john, it does seem to me that that is really the issue here, right? that this is not just -- trump has said offensive things before, some of them he's laughed off, some he's escaped with very little price, some he's paid a price for. but at this stage of the election, the available votes he needs are those votes, right? >> yeah, and it's interesting. i can tell you where he's still struggling a little bit are white, moderate, educated women in the southeast, the collar counties of philadelphia. this certainly is not going to help with that demographic, especially coming off of mike pence's very positive debate

performance, and some editorials saying, too bad mike pence isn't at the top of the ticket. i think they had a little bit of momentum starting to come back, and this obviously derails that. >> let's go back to the democrat. i've got a thesis that there's three or four more of these to come. this is a behavior pattern over 30 or 40 years. obviously, you have no knowledge of this, but for somebody who's been in this business, it's a pretty good guess to see we'll see more of this, right? >> well, first of all, i appreciate john working for mike pence 2020 there, but a lot of polls will say this. there might be other -- there might be other comments. i mean, we're at a saturation point with donald trump and sort of his comments. i think what really is going to happen here is, feelings are going to start to harden, right? we're going to see this with women and certain women. there's a franklin and marshal point to john's point about pennsylvania over the summer, where he was already down 30 in those southeast counties, primarily because of women. we're also going to see with

independents, he was doing well with independents earlier in the summer, there was a cnn poll out just this week, post-debate, that is a 21-point swing, in favor of hillary clinton. donald trump was winning by seven points with independents before -- i'm sorry, a quinnipiac poll. and he's now losing by 14 points. >> hari sevugan, john brabender, thank you both, you were both great. when we come back, we'll talk a little bit more about this hot mike video and the upcoming debates. and if you happen to be watching us in washington, d.c., you can listen to us on the radio, bloomberg 99.1 f.m. we'll be right back. what? is he gone?? finally, i thought he'd never leave...

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welcome back. to we get to reporters, john, you've been in this business for a long time.

can you think of any event four or five weeks out or even in a campaign that could be as devastating as this? >> well, look, the -- one of the key elements of this thing is the audio, obviously, and the video, right? it's -- there are a million things that candidates and campaigns can say, if they're not captured on video, they have no life. because people read them on the page, but on television, this is what we call sound. this element. so the 47% video was really a tough thing for romney. did it change the outcome of the election? no. did it set them back at an important time? and like this trump thing, it reinforced a lot of people's views about what romney thought. it played to an existing view of romney as a really rich guy, unfeeling, didn't care about at least half the country. the combination of something is that reinforces an existing narrative and is caught on audio or video makes for a potentially cataclysmic campaign moment, and

this has all of those characteristics. and everyone who imagines in their minds, what's trump like in private? that's kind of what people believe or suspect or fear trump is like in private. >> there's a different between being a player versus a misogynist. and some of those words, "grab her --" you know, used a very lewd word, and used the b-word. and it's interesting, when you talk about race and disabled people and women, there seems to be such hatred and disdain for other human beings and that's an ugliness that i don't think any educated voter can vote for, as a human being. >> and i've said before, in the time on the alicia machado controversy was playing out right after the first debate, that trump has gotten in the most trouble when he's been talking about or attacking private citizens. we have a huge tolerance for politicians saying the most vicious things about each other. no one cares. but when you talk about judge curiel or the khan family or alicia machado or this unnamed

woman, who he's talking about, putting the moves on and being rebuffed, she's not named here, but, again, it's some person, you know? and it's showing a kind of -- this is what -- and again, there's something about the hot mike element of this that's even worse. this is like the secret, true, when a camera -- when trump doesn't think the cameras are on, this is the way he's talking. and he dismisses it and says, that's locker room talk. for a lot of people, the locker room talk reflects the truer self. and when we hear the locker room talk, that's the locker room talk? that's going to be the oval office talk if he becomes president of the united states. >> we're now joined by "washington post" reporter, janet johnson. janet, what are you working on today? [ laughing ] >> what were you working on? it was about voter access, but did that story get crunched up and thrown in the pail? >> no, actually, my editor just picked it up. it will hopefully be online at

some point and hopefully everyone will jump to read it. it's still a very important issue -- >> is there any hot mike moments involved? any trump on the hot mike talking about these issues? if not, i think you're in trouble. >> no, no hot mike issues. >> and speaking of voter access, to trump's point this morning, it is true that illegal immigrants can come in the country and vote the next day, right? that's trump's thesis. >> no, that is not true. >> that's amazing! john, i told you that wasn't true. >> donny's very good about these things. so now we have both of you here. thank you for both being on the show. i want to ask you both just for a quick reaction of -- one of you covers donald trump regularly, one of you does not, but i want to just get your sense. this video is now out. it seems like a seismic moment in the campaign. jenna, what do you think the trump campaign's reaction is going to be. and then you can tell me what you think the broader impact of this will be on the broader impacts going into the debate.

first, jenna. >> well, the campaign very quickly reacted though and acknowledged that this was a controversy that he did have. they brushed it off as being locker room banter and he sort of apologized for it, saying that he apologized if anyone was offended by it. but there are already a lot of people on twitter saying, he should denounce these comments. he should say that he should have not said these things about women. >> jenna, i want to ask you, with as a woman, just -- take your reporter hat off. as a woman, can you excuse that and say, well, guys talk -- i don't know if you're a mom or if you're a daughter. just as a woman, what was your reaction? take your reporter hat off. >> well, i read the transcript earlier today when we first got it, and thought, wow, this is very offensive. i then watched the video and hearing it and hearing the tone in which it's said is different

than just reading it. and i think that there are going to be a lot of women across the country who are going to hear these things and are going to be very offended by it. again, a lot of donald trump's core supporters say, he could do anything and they're not going to stop supporting him. those aren't the people that he needs to win over. you know, he's behind hillary clinton right now. he needs pea beyond just his core group of supporters. and if there were people who were kind of on the fence about things, especially women, especially college-educated women, i think that they might have a hard time voting for someone who says things like this. behind the bus door. >> yaovich, first thoughts on the impact of this tape. >> my first thoughts echo what jenna said, the idea that he's not going to lose any supporters that are his core supporters because of this. if you can battle with a beauty queen and say that you've called

her "miss piggy" and said that you called her "miss housekeeper" and not lose your core support, that already tells you kind of what candidate he is. i think the issue is whether or not he's obviously going to be able to get other people to get onboard with him. and to me, in some ways, it's tough, because there's this idea that he's putting out there, and in some ways it's sticking that you should not trust the media. that the media is out to get him. that this idea that now "the washington post" is uncovering this audio of him talking like this, and he's saying, you know, i was a private citizen, this is a locker room talk. so the idea is, yes, there are definitely some people that are going to be turned off by this. those suburban voters that he really wants, those women voters that he really wants. but i watched the first debate with undecided voters who were at a republican party, and there were young women there who said, even with alicia machado -- even with the beauty queen comments, he didn't really -- that they didn't really see that that was something that would make them not vote for him. so to me, that left me thinking he's in some ways a teflon

candidate. but if he could continue to have that. if i would add, this day is also about the fact that he started off saying that people were coming here illegally to vote. then he started saying that the central park five, five men who have definitely been exonerated, who have settled with the city for being false -- for being forced to give false confessions, he said that they were guilty. and now you have this audio. that's three things just in one day. >> yamiche, follow up on that for one second. if you think about those three things, one of them in the view of many is a racial dog whistle, the central park five case, the immigrant -- the people coming across the border, the illegal immigrants are going to vote for hillary clinton is obviously -- has a latino implications, for that vote. and this is obviously a thing that has implications, this video for women. those are three groups that comprise a large part of the american electorate, and we know that donald trump has a base. but offending those three voter segments all the one day, 48 hours before the second debate, it would seem to be a problem in terms of what he needs to do to

get above his current ceiling, which is about 42% of the electorate, no? >> i think that that's definitely problematic. i've been reaching out as soon as this latest audio revealed. i've been reaching out to some republicans that i know, and so far, i've heard radio silence, because i think they are wondering, and i think a lot of people, the establishment republicans are wondering how is he going to now turn this corner and go into this debate, because hillary clinton's campaign is already reacting, sending out statements about the central park five, tweeting about this new audio. but i've been talking to pollsters about this race and who he's offending. and the pollsters tell me that we shouldn't segment the population and when he says illegal immigrants are going to vote and talks about the central five case, that's only hitting one group or a separate group, but they're telling me when he goes after mexicans and calls them rames rapipists, people lo

that and say i'm offended. >> and by the way, the tape takes it to a whole another level, kids. you both have a perfec driving record.

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from donny and i, we say to you, sayonara. "hardball" with chris matthews is next. heard on the bus. let's play "hardball." good evening, i'm chris matthews in washington. we're following a potential bombshell in the presidential race with big implications for sunday's debate, if not the election itself. nbc news obtained audio from 2005 of donald trump making lewd comments about women. it was during a press tour and he was talking to former "access hollywood" anchor, billy bush. and by the way, this audio coming up now includes graphic language and you may well find it offensive. in the first clip, trump talks